One and Two Dimensional Model Studies for Prediction of Changes in Flow Conditions in Panvel Creek due to Development

of Proposed International Airport at Navi Mumbai, Maharashtra

Review of CWPRS Draft Report

DHI Water Environment Health

December 2009

Review of CWPRS Draft Report

B-220, lower ground Chitaranjan Park New Delhi 11 0019 India Tel: +91 11 2652 0425 Fax: +91 11 2660 2276 e-mail: ajay@dhigroup.com Web: www.dhigroup.com

Client

Client’s representative

City and Industrial Development Corporation of Maharashtra
Project

Er Satyendu Sinha
Project No

11806447 One and Two Dimensional Model Studies for Prediction of Changes in Flow Conditions in Panvel Creek due to Development of Proposed International Airport at Navi Mumbai, Maharashtra
Authors Alasdair Macdonald Date December 2009

Approved by Ajay Pradhan

Revision Key words

Description

By

Checked

Approved

Date

Classification

Data Collection Hydrologic Modelling One and Two Dimensional Hydrodynamic Modelling Impact Assessment

Open Internal Proprietary

Distribution

No of copies

CIDCO CWPRS DHI

Er Satyendu Sinha Dr Z S Tarapore Er D N Deshmukh AJP, KWO

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LIST OF CONTENTS
1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 1-1 Background................................................................................................................ 1-1 Previous Studies ........................................................................................................ 1-1 Present Study ............................................................................................................ 1-1 Review Assignment ................................................................................................... 1-1 DATA ............................................................................................................................ 3 Topographic and Hydrographic Surveys ....................................................................... 3 2.1.1 Cross Sections and Bathymetry ...................................................................... 3 2.1.2 Sediment Samples .......................................................................................... 3 Hydrologic Data ............................................................................................................ 3 Daily Discharge Data .................................................................................................... 3 Tidal Water Levels and Velocity .................................................................................... 4 ONE AND TWO DIMENSIONAL MODEL REPORT ...................................................... 5 General ......................................................................................................................... 5 Rainstorm Analysis ....................................................................................................... 5 Rainfall-Runoff Analysis ................................................................................................ 6 Tidal Data Analysis ....................................................................................................... 6 One Dimensional Model ................................................................................................ 7 3.5.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 7 3.5.2 Calibration ....................................................................................................... 8 3.5.3 Impact Assessment ......................................................................................... 8 Two Dimensional Model ................................................................................................ 9 3.6.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 9 3.6.2 Model Domain ................................................................................................. 9 3.6.3 Calibration ..................................................................................................... 10 3.6.4 Impact Assessment ....................................................................................... 10 3.6.5 Safe Grade Elevation .................................................................................... 10 CWPRS Conclusions .................................................................................................. 11 OBSERVATIONS OF REVIEWER .............................................................................. 12 General ....................................................................................................................... 12 Diverted Channels ...................................................................................................... 12 Morphological Impact .................................................................................................. 12 Physical Model ............................................................................................................ 13

3.6

3.7 4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4

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1 1.1

INTRODUCTION Background
The City and Industrial Development Corporation of Maharashtra Ltd (CIDCO) is developing a new city called Navi Mumbai across Mumbai Harbour along Thane and Panvel Creeks, and upstream rivers. In addition to the development of new townships covering 343km2, the Corporation is developing a New International Airport near Panvel by reclaiming 1,615ha of land, which is partly submerged at high tide. The Gadhi and Ulwe Rivers will be diverted around the boundary of the reclamation: This will entail a total diversion of Ulwe river; for the Gadhi River a cutoff will be provided within the tidal zone between high water and low water and the river will be trained.

1.2

Previous Studies
The Central Water and Power Research Station (CWPRS), Pune, conducted a one dimensional mathematical model study based on secondary data to predict the impact of the development of the International Airport on the flow in Panvel Creek in July 2001. The study concluded that the proposed airport and township development will raise flood levels in Panvel Creek marginally: around the airport by 0.1 to 0.15m, and in the upstream reaches around Taloja Creek by about 0.1m.

1.3

Present Study
Following “In Principle” approval of Navi Mumbai International Airport by the Government of India, CWPRS has conducted a one and two dimensional mathematical modelling study, and is in the process of conducting a physical model study, extending the existing Mumbai Model. CIDCO provided historical rainfall data, a topographical survey of the upstream rivers, a new bathymetric survey of Panvel and part of Thane Creek, and tidal and velocity observations over one month.

1.4

Review Assignment
The objective of the assignment is to review the studies being carried out by CWPRS, and suggest any additional work required, if any, to ensure effective flood and water management in and around the proposed airport. The scope of work tentatively identified is as follows: (1) A site visit followed by examination of the data available to CWPRS for carrying out the one and two dimensional model studies, and review of the draft abstract report submitted by CWPRS indicating the major findings of the studies. (2) Interaction with concerned officials of CIDCO, CWPRS and the Advisor (Hydraulic) at Navi Mumbai and Pune for full understanding of the studies and findings. (3) Assessment of the adequacy of the studies and advice on the need for further studies, if any.

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(4) Report on the best practice for flood and water management in and around the airport.

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2 2.1
2.1.1

DATA Topographic and Hydrographic Surveys
Cross Sections and Bathymetry
A cross section survey of Panvel Creek and the five rivers upstream was carried out in 2008. The cross sections were taken at an interval of 200m upstream in the rivers, and 100m in the tidal zone downstream. Cross sections from the mouth of Panvel Creek to the MLD Jetty were taken from a bathymetric survey of the entire Thane Creek carried out in 1993/94. The areas covered by the early and recent surveys are not clearly shown. The cross sections were surveyed up to the maximum recorded water level (either flood level or highest tide level). For the purpose of model analysis, the sections have been extended based on Survey of India topographic maps above the maximum predicted water level. (The model assumes that the cross section has a constant width above the maximum cross section level.) The report mentions cross section transverse distances looking upstream. The convention is for cross sections looking downstream, with left and right bank assigned accordingly. CWPRS state that the data have been used correctly in the one and two dimensional models. It is mentioned that there are holding ponds balancing the stormwater runoff. There is no indication of the location and capacity of the holding ponds.

2.1.2

Sediment Samples
Sediment bed material samples and suspended sediment sampling are mentioned in the report, but the location (at discharge and velocity measurement sites?) is not given. Analysis of the samples for particle size distribution and concentration is not reported. CWPRS provided a table with the analysis of three bulk sediment samples (20 litres) collected over a period of 2 to 4 hours at three locations in Panvel Creek. The time and date of survey, tidal stage and precise locations are not known, only the names of the creeks (Taloja, Panvel and Reti Bunder) have been mentioned. The average concentration is from 310 to 370mg/l.

2.2

Hydrologic Data
A thorough exercise has been conducted to obtain available rainfall data from the area around Panvel Creek and the region. Mention may be made of the different raingauge types used, and analysis of the consistency of these data. Data from different sources using different techniques may give rise to different characteristics of the rainfall data.

2.3

Daily Discharge Data
Daily discharge data are available at three locations on the upstream rivers. It is not reported how the discharge data were obtained - presumably computed from current metering and stage:discharge rating curves. Water levels are recorded from

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manual gauges. CWPRS states that the discharge data at the three upstream gauging stations do not capture rainstorm runoff, and have therefore not been useful for the study.

2.4

Tidal Water Levels and Velocity
Tidal water levels and velocities were measured at five locations in the tidal zone of Panvel Creek from mid May to mid June 2009. Three gauges were installed by Mumbai Maritime Board (MMB) using an acoustic device from above the water level, and two by CWPRS using pressure sensors located below low water level. Both gauge types record the average water level and velocity since the previous record. The expected accuracy of the water level gauges as informed by CWPRS is ±1cm. CWPRS advises that the velocity meters were deployed near the deepest part of the channels, where the maximum velocity may be expected The CWPRS gauges were installed to supplement the MMB gauges, and cover the last two weeks of May, one spring-neap cycle. It appears there was some malfunctioning of the velocity meter at Ulwe Bridge as constant zero velocity is indicated following low tide (mentioned in Technical Report No 4627 of March 2009). The Waghiwali gauge indicates lower HWL and LWL than the other gauges, especially at neap tides. There was no hard foundation for the tidal gauge, which may have subsided.

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3 3.1

ONE AND TWO DIMENSIONAL MODEL REPORT General
The draft report abstract on the One and Two Dimensional Model Studies was presented by CWPRS at CIDCO office in Navi Mumbai by CWPRS on 15th October 2009. This report comprises: • A review of the available rainfall data in the area • Estimation of a range of hourly rainstorm profiles • Estimation of the runoff to the rivers discharging into Panvel Creek • One dimensional mathematical model study of the flow conditions in the rivers and creek for a range of rainstorms, for existing conditions and conditions with the reclaimed land for the proposed airport • Two dimensional mathematical model study of the tidal regime in the rivers and creeks, for a range of rainstorms, for existing conditions and conditions with the reclaimed land for the proposed airport • Estimation of the flood safe grade elevations for the airport area. CWPRS has informed that the full report will include a List of Contents, List of Figures, List of Tables and be structured with more sub-headings to improve readability. Units will be shown on all Figures and Tables, and a better base map will be incorporated. GIS will be required for the EIA. All the data should be georeferenced and transferred to GIS. Nearly all advanced modelling tools utilise data in GIS format. CWPRS advises that all data shown in Google Earth and AutoCad are georeferenced and can be transferred to GIS format.

3.2

Rainstorm Analysis
The rainfall data analysed comprise: • Yearly maximum one day rainfall for 13 gauges in and around the study area • Hourly rainfall data for seven gauges for the exceptional storm of 26th July 2005 • Yearly maximum hourly rainfall for Colaba and Santa Cruz from 1969 to 2004 Figure 1 of the draft report shows raingauges around Panvel Creek, while figure 2 shows selected regional gauges (both from the CIDCO Hydrological Data Report).

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The two figures may be combined to show in one figure the spatial distribution of all the gauges used in the analysis. In the rainfall analysis, emphasis is placed on Santa Cruz and Colaba data which are IMD stations. Gauges of other organisations, eg Irrigation Department, were used to support the analysis. Data up to 2008 could have been collected, though in the opinion of CWPRS, as there were no major storm events, adding a few more years’ data would not make a significant difference to the rainstorm analysis. Recent events would nonetheless extend the trend of the influence of any environmental changes in the region. Frequency analysis has been conducted on the daily data. The study has adopted the Log-Pearson III distribution, excluding the exceptional event of 26th July 2005. This yields daily rainfall of 456mm and 531mm for the 50 and 100 year return period event respectively. The LP III distribution excluding the July 2005 event fit this event better than the Gumbel distribution (adopted as standard by IMD). LP III gives more conservative values, and was therefore selected. In the full report, the table on page 2 will be completed in respect of LP III, though these periods of records are relatively short. The derivation of the hourly rainfall distribution in table VI is made according to standard IMD procedures, reference for which should be given. Actual and derived hourly rainstorm profiles will be plotted in the full report. The rainstorm analysis has been thorough and competent, and the derivation of the 50 and 100 year return period rainstorm profiles can be taken as applicable to the rainfall-runoff analysis. Bringing the data up to date with rainfall from 2005 to 2008 may not affect the results, but would round off the study.

3.3

Rainfall-Runoff Analysis
The rainfall-runoff analysis of the upstream catchments has been carried out using the time:area method, which is appropriate for the analysis of single events where no runoff discharge data are available for calibration. A water balance check has been carried out for Gadhi catchment. The water volume computed on the basis of the derived flood hydrograph (hourly flood discharges) is in good agreement with the computed water volume of on the basis of rainfall, catchment area and runoff coefficient. This check may be repeated for the other catchments of the rainfallrunoff model. The holding ponds which could attenuate the runoff hydrograph and reduce the peak have not been taken into consideration. The design of the holding ponds was based on total rainfall of 240mm in 4 hours. For the severe storms considered in the NMIA analysis, their effect would be limited. As a conservative assumption, they are not included in the analysis. Though it is not expected to have a significant impact on the tidal hydraulics of the creek, for the sake of completeness, the developed airport will be included in the rainfall-runoff analysis, and presented in the full report.

3.4

Tidal Data Analysis
It would be useful for comparison among the tidal water gauges to present the moving averages of the water levels over 25 hours (two tidal cycles) and 175 hours

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(spring-neap cycle) to filter astronomical effects and visualise the longitudinal river gradient, starting from Mumbai Port. It will also serve as a check on the datums of the gauges (see for example the figure below).

Tidal Predictions from MIKE C-Map at Revas Bandar showing Filtered Diurnal Tidal Variation
6.0

5.0

Water Level (Chart Daatum)

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0
15/05 00:00 20/05 00:00 25/05 00:00 30/05 00:00 04/06 00:00 09/06 00:00 14/06 00:00 19/06 00:00 24/06 00:00 29/06 00:00 04/07 00:00

CWPRS advises that the upstream discharges in both Panvel and Thane Creek are small relative to the tidal flux, and figures will be presented in the report to demonstrate this for Panvel Creek (Thane Creek is outside the present scope, and outside the model domain). Panvel and Thane Creek may be considered to be well mixed vertically, and though no salinity measurements have been taken, saline stratification is not expected to have an effect on the tidal hydraulics.

3.5
3.5.1

One Dimensional Model
Introduction
The one dimensional modelling software applied is Charima, developed by Prof FM Holly at Iowa Institute of Hydraulic Research, University of Iowa. The model incorporates the full hydrodynamic flow equations for the conservation of mass and momentum, as is appropriate for both the tidal reaches and the upstream rivers. The software is not supported, and does not have options for structures such as bridges. The model was established for an earlier study of the 1992 flood event, and was validated for the Gadhi River reach between NH4B bridge and Expressway bridge for the July 1991 flood event, when the 24 hour rainfall in the upstream catchment was over 400mm.

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3.5.2

Calibration
For calibration, the downstream boundary is the record at the MDL Jetty in Thane Creek. For predictive runs, the downstream boundary is synthesised from Apollo Bundar with an addition for the upstream gradient (according to CIDCO). For calibration, the upstream runoff was taken as zero. CWPRS has confirmed that for the calibration of the Panvel Creek reach during the pre-monsoon period, using the tidal data collected from 15th May to 15th June 2007, due to a delayed monsoon there was no rainfall, which normally begins in the second week of June. The flow in the five rivers discharging into Panvel Creek was practically zero. Upstream dry weather runoff could have been estimated from the population, present and future. CWPRS consider this would not be significant for the hydraulic analysis. It may be more relevant if water quality analysis is required for the EIA. The calibration of the model shows lower simulated water levels (approximately 0.3m) and earlier peaks and troughs downstream. The difference at the critical maximum tidal water level is more in the order of 0.1m lower than observed. The time axis on the plots comparing simulated and observed should show the calendar time, rather than the relative time. The calibration shows four days around spring tide. In the full report, CWPRS will show the calibration for the four days around spring tide, and four days around neap tide. Consideration may be given to showing the full month of observations, and summary statistics prepared. CWPRS advise that owing to low velocities, the water levels were found not to be sensitive to changes in the bed roughness, and no adjustments were made to the bed and bank roughness (transverse and longitudinal) to improve the calibration obtained in 1991. The differences at low water level between the simulated and observed may be partly owing to lack of detailed resolution of the rocky bathymetry. The tidal gauge installed by CWPRS at Waghiwali appears to have subsided owing to lack of a solid foundation, and has not been used in the calibration. This is unfortunate, as it represents a key location in the looped section of the creek. The discharge data at the three upstream gauging stations did not capture rainstorm runoff, and have therefore not been useful for the study. CWPRS will show the simulated discharge and water level hydrographs at key locations on the rivers upstream in the full report. Strictly, bridge losses should be simulated as structural controls replacing the momentum equation with an appropriate bridge loss formula, rather than using a constricted cross section. This will not have a major impact on the water levels upstream, and probably no impact downstream. This is a software limitation, but the calibration of the water levels upstream of bridges appears reasonable. CWPRS has informed that separate studies were carried out earlier to assess the afflux in Gadhi River upstream of NH4B bridge, without and with the bridge simulating the clear waterway of the bridge. Validation of the model for the July 1991 flood showed that the estimated water levels upstream of the bridge near Panvel port, SH54 bridge, NH4 bridge and New Panvel were in good agreement with the observed flood levels, and that the water levels downstream of the bridge remain unaffected.

3.5.3

Impact Assessment
The longitudinal plots should show the maximum and minimum water levels, or upper and lower envelopes of water level, and bank levels. While not affecting the

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overall picture, it is suggested that “smoothing” the locus of the plots in the longitudinal profiles is not entirely appropriate. The plots show a 4m head loss over 650m horizontal distance (figure 18). CWPRS explain that in this reach the bed levels increase by about 2m, there are constricting rail and road bridges, and the bed has uneven rock outcrops which offer high roughness. The details will be examined for the full report, as will the large drawdown of around 0.5m followed by a sudden drop of 1.7m at around 4km (figure 20). The report states that there is negligible change in the water levels in Panvel Creek with the airport reclamation. While this may not appear on comparative hydrographs and longitudinal sections of maximum water levels with and without the airport, this will be illustrated with a table comparing the maximum water levels at key locations with the left and right bank levels in the full report. The maximum ebb velocities appear to be higher than the maximum flood velocities, indicating that sedimentation may not be a problem. Also the velocities are relatively low.

3.6
3.6.1

Two Dimensional Model
Introduction
The two dimensional model in plan has been set up with MIKE 21, which has a consistent development history over 40 years by DHI Water Environment Health. The tidal water levels predicted from the Charima model and the MIKE 21 model are in close agreement (figures 12 to 14).

3.6.2

Model Domain
For orientation, the model domain should be shown on a geographical background. Rather than a boundary along the centre line of Thane Creek, a tidal boundary across Thane Creek from the MLD Jetty and including Thane Creek upstream would have given a larger area in which to demonstrate any far field effects of the reclamation, particularly with respect to morphological impact. Upstream, Thane Creek narrows, and CWPRS has explained that the upstream catchment area, a branch of the Ulhas River, is small and there is little inflow. This boundary may be taken as zero flow. It may be reasonable to assume that, considering that Panvel creek is relatively small compared to Thane Creek, hydraulic conditions in Thane Creek are independent of flows in Panvel creek. Nonetheless, while hydraulic impacts are transient, morphological impacts may accumulate over time. Initial model test runs could be carried out using the early bathymetric survey of Thane Creek, which is being used for the physical model. The grid size of the model is 25m (N-S) x 50m (E-W). This gives a higher resolution in the N-S direction than the E-W direction. Since the primary flow direction changes with the alignment of the creeks, it would have been better to interpolate the bathymetry on a square 25 x 25m grid. The initial condition applied to all runs was a uniform high tide level. The roughness values applied were the same as used in the one dimensional model. Since the calibration was found satisfactory, and owing to low velocities the levels were not

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sensitive to roughness values, no adjustments were made to improve the calibration.

3.6.3

Calibration
As for the one dimensional model, for calibration from mid May to mid June the upstream river inflow was taken as zero. CWPRS advise that the 2007 monsoon arrived late, and there was no significant rainfall during the calibration period. Upstream dry weather runoff could be estimated from the population distribution, present and future. This may be more relevant if water quality analysis is required for the EIA. The Gadhi River reach between NH4B bridge and Expressway bridge was calibrated with data of 1992 with high flows from upstream, and subsequently validated for the high flood of July 1991 (CWPRS Technical Report No 3815 of August 2001), as well as the 26th July 2005 extreme rainfall event. For calibration, the downstream boundary is the record at the MDL Jetty in Thane Creek, assumed to be valid along the centre line of the creek upstream. For predictive runs, the downstream boundary is synthesised from Apollo Bundar records, with an addition for the upstream gradient (according to CIDCO).

3.6.4

Impact Assessment
The two dimensional plots in figures 27 to 33 show instantaneous water levels. They plots presented in the full report will show the maximum water level, which will not occur at the same time at all locations. Figures 27 and 28 indicate a significant increase in the water level upstream on the Kasadi River for the 100 year return period with the airport development. CWPRS advise that both one and two dimensional models show the same rise in the water levels in this reach, primarily owing to the rise in the bed levels, road and railway bridges, and urban and industrial developments along the upstream narrow reach confining the flow of Kasadi river. This may be further investigated, as the channel dimensions are not changed by the airport reclamation. In figures 37 to 39, the ebb water levels are lower with the airport, presumably because the airport reclamation removes a significant high tide storage area, and there is less water to drain on the ebb. This will be discussed in the full report. To assist in determining the safe grade elevations for the airport, a plot should show the maximum water levels around the airport boundary. It is suggested that this together with the recommended freeboard should be the defining output of the CWPRS study, leaving the airport designers to determine the levels within the airport reclaimed area commensurate with balancing cut and fill, and stormwater drainage. CWPRS will give general guidelines for storm water drainage design.

3.6.5

Safe Grade Elevation
Local flood embankments along the Gadhi River and a wider diversion for the Ulwe River could lower the overall safe grade elevation for the airport, if this is desirable from a construction cost viewpoint. CWPRS considers that lowering the safe-grade elevation and provision of a flood embankment will involve protection and maintenance of the embankment, and present a constant threat of flooding from a breach in the embankment, though this need only be a low embankment. Secondly, the embankment along the periphery

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would obstruct the storm water flow (surface runoff) to the creek, though the runoff could be directed in a westerly direction to Panvel Creek. Lower storm water drainage bed levels would imply a shallower gradient and a wider drain. Provision of holding ponds would complicate the operation of the storm water drainage system. In view of the importance of safety of the international airport and allied facilities, while reclamation to a safe-grade elevation above the predicted surrounding high flood levels may involve a high initial cost, long term maintenance costs will be lower. In the opinion of CWPRS, maintaining safe grade elevations above the surrounding maximum predicted water level is appropriate.

3.7

CWPRS Conclusions
CWPRS suggest that there is an overall trend of rising rainfall in the area. Study of the yearly maximum 1-day rainfall and yearly maximum intensity at Santa Cruz (1950 to 2005) and Colaba (1901 to 2004) (Tables I, II and VI) shows that there are increasing instances of high one day rainfall in the past 30 to 40 years. Also the Santa Cruz record of intensities clearly indicates a rising trend of intensities. This will be set out in the full report. The July 2005 event was applied uniformly over the entire catchment. The rainstorm recorded at Santa Cruz while not recorded at Colaba was recorded as severe within the Panvel Creek area. Therefore it is justified to consider the case where the Santa Cruz event is distributed over the catchment as the most severe case. The frequency analysis excluded the July 2005 rainstorm event at Santa Cruz. This is reasonable when viewed alongside the fact that the impact of the airport reclamation was tested applying both the July 2005 event and the Probable Maximum Precipitation determined by IMD in the model simulations. The new cross section data do not differ significantly from the earlier survey. Hence the model was simply validated against limited high flood levels from the July 2005 event. The previously ascribed roughness values were found satisfactory, and no changes were made. With regard to the freeboard for the airport safe grade elevations, there is no history of tsunamis in the Arabian Sea, nor until November 2009 of cyclone induced surges in the water level striking the coast. Cyclone induced surges most frequently strike eastern continental margins. The impact of the airport on maximum velocities should be investigated. A two dimensional plot will be prepared showing the impact, ie the difference in maximum velocity between the with and without airport cases. The general procedure proposed by BIS for the design of the bank protection works has been adopted: a more elaborate description and references will be given in the full report. The airport reclamation will not increase flood levels upstream. Flood embankments are required under existing conditions. The analysis has been conducted assuming flood embankments upstream, as a conservative assumption for the with airport condition. Design cross sections of the diverted channels will be provided in the full report.

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4 4.1

OBSERVATIONS OF REVIEWER General
The study of the impact of the proposed airport reclamation on the hydraulics of the Panvel Creek and upstream rivers by CWPRS has overall been carried out in a thorough and competent matter. Improvements can be made to the draft report by way of presentation and discussion of the results and impacts. As the impacts are small and do not show on plots, tables clearly showing the impact of the airport reclamation on the hydraulics of the river channels upstream and the creeks downstream will be presented in the full report. Longitudinal profiles as well as hydrographs showing the impact will be presented from the one dimensional model. Longitudinal profiles will be presented as maxima rather than instantaneous in the full report. The bathymetry of the two dimensional model will be plotted in the full report, for the existing and with airport reclamation conditions. For the two dimensional model, the results will also be presented as maxima, and as impacts. For the latter, grid output may show the difference in maximum water levels and velocities in the model domain with and without the airport. Tools for these calculations are available in MIKE Zero.

4.2

Diverted Channels
The diverted Gadhi and Ulwe Channels will run through rocky areas where potential for replanting mangroves is limited. Both CWPRS and the Reviewer are of the opinion that the existing alignment of the Gadhi Channel should be retained through the fine sediment so that the mangroves can be saved and restored in this area. Consideration may also be given to preserving the alignment of the Ulwe Channel through the reclaimed area, with its mangroves, though CWPRS does not subscribe to this view.

4.3

Morphological Impact
Assessment of the impact of the airport reclamation on the morphology of Panvel and Thane Creeks was not part of the scope of the CWPRS study, and scant data are apparently available of the morphology of the creeks. Nonetheless, the morphological impact should not be neglected. While the immediate impact of the airport reclamation on the tidal hydraulics may be small, the accumulated impact on the morphology of Panvel and Thane Creeks over several years may be significant. There is some evidence that sedimentation in Thane and Panvel Creeks is not a major issue, eg the requirement for maintenance dredging for navigation access channels to the ports along Thane Creek is low, once every few years, and that there is little visual evidence of sediment deposited in Panvel Creek. Hard evidence should be obtained to support this. Information should be obtained from ports regarding their dredging operations, in respect of quantity and location. Information should be sought regarding the concentration of sediment over at least one spring tidal cycle. If not available from published sources, a campaign should

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be mounted to survey concurrently the water levels, velocities and sediment concentrations in the creeks. Assumptions have been implied in the terms of reference for the CWPRS study which need to be tested with a model covering Thane Creek. The domain of the two dimensional model should be extended to the mouth of Thane Creek to enable a comprehensive analysis of the sedimentation of both Thane and Panvel Creeks with and without the airport. Special techniques may be applied to extrapolate model results over decades. This will remove any uncertainties regarding the further field and long term effects of the airport reclamation on the hydrodynamics and morphology of the area. CWPRS is of the opinion that the Panvel Creek flow conditions are governed by the conditions in the Thane creek outside the mouth of the Panvel creek, and there will be no effect of change in the flow conditions in Panvel creek on the flow conditions in Thane creek. The studies indicate that the change in the flow conditions in Panvel Creek subsequent to development of the international airport is marginal and not likely to affect the far field conditions in Thane Creek.

4.4

Physical Model
The proposed physical model of Thane Creek extended to include Panvel Creek will not yield useful results for hydraulic and environmental analyses of the airport land reclamation. The present analysis has rightly focussed on mathematical modelling, and further more detailed investigations should extend the present study, and not incorporate physical modelling. The physical model covers the entire Thane Creek up to the Ulhas confluence north of Panvel Creek. The downstream boundary of this model is far away in the main sea to the south west. CWPRS is of the opinion that this could be useful to study the impact of the airport reclamation on the hydraulic flow conditions in Thane Creek, if any. The reviewer considers it will be impossible to include morphology in the physical model. For demonstration of the results of the mathematical modelling to lay persons, three dimensional computer graphics based on the model results (using readily available software) should be utilised. This may be enhanced to include surrounding topography, buildings, trees, etc for visual effect.

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