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By: Zaid Hamid
"Asia is a body' built of clay and water Afghanistan is the heart in this body.' lfAfghanistan is in turmoil, the 'whole of Asia ,.. ould be in Turmoil If Afghanistan is in peace, the whole of Asia 'would be in peace. " (Allama Iqbal)
The irony is overwhelmingly stark, the contradictions paradoxical: • Pakistan army is fighting a bloody and ruthle ss insurgency backed by the USINATO/India, simultaneously Pakistan is also an ally ofthe western forces. Pakistan had agreed to help the US in the war against Afghan Taliban and Al-Qaeda inside Afghanistan but the US has pushed the war inside Pakistan under theAf- Pak doctrine. Weapons, explosives and supplies to the insurgents against Pakistan are being provided by the western forces from Afghanistan, while their own supply lines pass through Pakistan which also carry the logistics for the insurgencies. Afghan Taliban and other resistance groups are fighting a war against the foreign occupation forces but are not considered allies by Pakistan. Karzai regime is a hostile enemy government but treated as an ally by Islamabad. TTP is an insurgent group fighting against Pakistan but the US insists that Pakistan
Paradox within a Paradox:
The above stunning, almost prophetic, geo-political vision of Iqbal is starkly visible today as the entire region, especially Pakistan is faced with an existential threat from the Afghan theatre. While the rapid and violent reshaping of the Muslim Middle East is being orchestrated by the N eo-Cons in the mainland Arab world, the occupation of Afghanistan by the western forces is directly threatening the Muslim heartland in West Asia, greater Khurasan and the Central Asian regions, Despite facing a massive high intensity, decentralized, imposed asymmetric 4th generation war within its own borders, Pakistan's Afghan policy remains fatally confused, disoriented and without any strategic vision. This strategic confusion within the political government has created an unprecedented threat environment in which the differentiation between friend and foe has been deliberately confused through an orchestrated information war and psy-ops by the extra regional forces.
• • •
The new world war for 21" century began in Afghanistan! should only fight the Afghan instead. resistance andANP in Karachi. Under this most bizarre, complex, dangerous and confused geopolitical threat scenario, Pakistan is led by the most corrupt, compromised and dysfunctional regime in its history, further creating a leadership crisis in times of war. In the last 4 years of this regime,
Afghan resistance does not fight Pakistan and considers the TTP as a terrorist asset but does not fight the TTP as Pakistan does not recognize the Afghan resistance. Drones kill more pro-Pakistan Afghan resistance and Pakistani tribal civilians than terrorists, causing serious damage to Pakistan's interests but still Islamabad allows the attacks as a matter of policy. The lSI and CIA are supposed to be allies but CIA is working systematically to decapitate the premier Pakistani secret service and a violent war rages between the two spy agencies under the facade ofcooperation! India wages a ruthless war, supporting multiple insurgencies in FATA and Baluchistan through Afghanistan but Pakistan continues to engage India in "peace" process. India also continues to block Pakistani waters and also supports urban terrorists of MQM
not a single debate has been initiated on the Afghan policy which addresses the above core issues. The policies of the Musharraf era are being pursued, which had brought this brutal war upon Pakistan in the first place. Still, the leadership cannot decide how to extricate Pakistan from this war despite over 50,000 dead and wounded, both from the armed forces and the civil society, in the last 4 years alone. The entire country has been turned into a battle ground but still the regime does not plan any policy analysis on the Afghan theatre and the threats emerging from it. The "strategic blindness" of the leadership has created an existential threat environment for the state and the nation. A decisive solution to the Afghan crisis has to be found NOW! As the crisis has almost metastasized beyond control, the treatment would also be radical, harsh, and even ruthless but for the sake of regional peace and national security, it will have to be deployed with cut throat lethality. Three critical factors must be understood clearly before any analysis and solution of the Afghan crisis is given: to bring this 10 year long vindictive WoT to an end and wanted to leave handing over the fate of the country to its indigenous owners. But what came along with this announcement was a more aggressive doctrine of Af-Pak which not only has devastated Afghanistan but has also pushed the war deeper into Pakistan. During his address, president Obama also announced a surge of 33,000 more troops for Afghanistan. Although, US has announced a limited withdrawal of its forces from Afghanistan, but what does this "withdrawal" actually mean in the long term regional security perspective? What were the stated goals of the US war in Afghanistan? How far was the Af-Pak doctrine successful in achieving its stated goals? Where does the war stand after 10 years? And what are the future dynamics of this war from Pakistan's security point of view? The search of objective answers to these questions invites us to dissect this decade long war in Afghanistan and examine it both at strategic and political vortexes along with its long term regional and global ramifications. To start with it is essential to understand that the stated US goals in the region are entirely different from her real objectives. The detailed comparison between the two is critical to understand and predict the future course of war on Pakistan's western borders. Disrupting, dismantling and deteriorating the ability of Al-Qaeda and their allies (Taliban) to launch any further attack on US was stated as the primary mission objective by the US government after 9/11. But this stated aim was a mere smoke screen to veil the real
The Extra Regional forces are part of the problem and NOT the solution of it. There can be no peace as long as the foreign forces are occupying Afghanistan. The solution to the Afghan crisis does not lie within the Afghan theatre of war but within the region - in the hands of the countries surrounding the Afghan theatre. The US and NATO do not have the military and economic capability to open any other high intensity, Iraq-styled theatre of war against Pakistan. Pakistan controls the jugular ofthe extra regional forces!
Almost 18 months ago, at West Point Military Academy, US president Barack Obama stated: "It must be clear that Afghans will have to take responsibility for their security, and that America has no interest in fighting an endless war in Afghanistan. " Obama seemed to be stating that the US really wanted
long term strategic plans of the US for the region. The Grand strategic Obj ectives of the US for the 21 st century are:
"Pakistan is an energy-poor, desperate customer of the grid. Becoming an energy transit country is Pakistan's once-in-a-lifetime chance to transition from a near-failed state into an 'energy corridor' to Asia and, why not, global markets. " After nearly one and half years of Af-Pak announcement, it has become clear that the real purpose of this doctrine was not to stabilize Afghanistan but to destabilize the entire region by pushing the conflict into Pakistan. This doctrine is just a means for the US to meet its aforesaid strategic objectives particularly the one related to "fixing" Pakistan. Lately, there is a realization among Pakistan's military establishment regarding the devastating impact of the Af-Pak. Pakistan army and intelligence apparatus have been pushed into an endless fight against a obscure and ruthless enemy who has been attacking Pakistan from Afghanistan since years now. On the other hand, the CIA and JSOC (Joint Special Operations Command) covert operators, under the diplomatic cover, are working to frame Pakistan in the next 9/ll-like scenario. Consequently, not only the diplomatic relations between Islamabad and Washington are getting worse but also the intelligence ties between the lSI and CIA have hit rock bottom as well. What used to be termed as merely a conspiracy theory is now being proved as a real conspiracy! The US and NATO forces have also been paying a harsh price for this failed and flawed doctrine since the last two years. Official death toll of foreign occupying forces has risen to 2600 and the US forces have suffered most of these fatalities. The fatalities within the private contractors of Blackwater and Xe Services
Defense and Security of Israel for which Pakistan must be de-nuclearized and dismembered and Iran must be prevented from becoming a nuclear power. Control of global energy corridors, energy resources, pipelines and trade routes. Containment of Political Islam as an ideology. Control of global water ways and Oceans. Containment of Russia. Containment of China.
4. S. 6.
All these unstated grand strategic objectives make it critical for the US and the Western powers to occupy, control and dominate Afghanistan and then to push the war into Pakistan for a "Yugoslavia" solution. "Balkanization of Pakistan" is a critical part of this entire scheme. The imposed 4th generation war along with its entire spectrum of threat axis on political, economic, media and military is designed to create this state failure in Pakistan to muster a global justification for "securing" Pakistan's nuclear assets by an international coalition led by the UN or US. In this new great game, Pakistan is also in the middle of what many analysts call "Pipelineistan wars". Pepe Escobar from Asia Times writes:
Another Vietnam in the making!
are not included in these official figures. Also, the number of the wounded and mentally wrecked troops rendered unfit for military service is never given by the US and NATO army. But all this is just the tip of the iceberg! All the major US forces' operations in Southern and central Afghanistan have met with complete failure. The tactics of prolonged guerilla warfare employed by the resistance have out maneuvered the occupation forces in Afghanistan. The entire country, including Kabul, is under the threat or control of the Taliban and other resistance groups or criminal warlords. The Taliban are also in control of all critical routes as well. The situation is so desperate that in some provinces even the coalition forces are forced to pay the warlords and Taliban commanders for a safe passage of their supplies, almost to the tune of $400 million per year, flooding the resistance with cash to carry on the resistance! The American fatalities in Helmand province present an eye-opening account of how catastrophically the US operations have suffered there. During the first 7 years, till 2008, the total number of US troops killed in Helmand was 177, while in last two and half years, this number has gone up to 543; almost 3 times more casualties in 1I3fd of the time. The Americans had bet on the wrong horse in the political arena as well. Despite the acknowledgement ofKarzai's corruption by the US president in 2009, he is still enjoying the fake power in Kabul under the US umbrella as there is no other willing puppet available to the US to replace him; just another reason to make the Americans desperate for any kind of military
achievement! During the recent weeks, there have been some critical changes which are reshaping the Afghan war environment. The Pak-US relations are in the woods on the entire axis as both the countries are desperate to protect their own interests. For Pakistan, a very challenging environment is in the making on the western theatre!
The Af-Pak Theatre Environment:
In a desperate bid to push the war into Pakistan, the US and NATO are pushing
hundreds of militants into Pakistan in regular cross border raids from the Kunar province. Fierce clashes are taking place in Mohmand and Bajaur regions of the tribal areas. The militants are supplied with massive ammunition, weapons and logistics from the Afghan side. NATO has removed their own security posts from the region to the west side of Kunar River and has allowed free movement to the militants to carry out raids into Pakistan. The Pakistan army has captured truck loads of millions of rounds of brand new ammunition of AK-47, 12.7mm, 14.5mm, 82mm Mortars, 75mm recoilless rifles and RPG- 7's. The massive supply line of TTP insurgency runs uninterrupted from the Afghan side, fully backed by the CIA/RAW lRAMA. Pakistan continues to fight a high intensity war within its own borders across the entire region in FATA. Pakistan army has not yet crossed the border into Afghanistan in hot pursuit ofthe militants. Artillery fire has been sent across the border occasionally but ironically often responded by the US and NATO forces against the Pakistani positions. The TTP militants continue to have safe havens on the Afghan side close to the Pakistani border, under the protection of US and NATO forces. No drone strike or fire has ever been brought upon the TTP positions by the USINATO forces in Kunar or elsewhere. The treachery and betrayal of the US is most nauseatingly vivid in this theatre.
Pakistan has expelled some of the US military personnel from the country after the US Special forces made an incursion into Pakistan nd on May 2 • In response, Washington has cut Pakistani military aid. This move has failed to serve its purpose and is going to backfire for the US. To add insult to injury, China has completely blown away the American psy-ops by openly coming forward and announcing all the required cooperation with Pakistan. The US is now re-considering its decision to cut military aid to the Pakistan army. With the deteriorating Pak-US relations, the American desire of making Pakistan take the ownership of WoT is also frizzling out
ignominiously. As Pakistan has decided to fight the war with its own resources, now the operational strategy will be Pakistan's own as well. This is yet another challenge for the US as their entire exit strategy revolves around putting blame of their failure in Afghanistan on Pakistan. Now Obama administration is desperately trying to sell the idea that Pakistan has taken the ownership of WoT during the Pak-US strategic dialogue. The CIA is equally desperate to get its feet back in Pakistan. Their latest policy is to placate Pakistan by providing a little more information about the on ground CIA operators in Pakistan. Previously, these operators were working under diplomatic cover; a failed policy which created serious diplomatic and PR crisis for the US. 4. As the war continues to go wrong on all axes in
the Af- Pak theatre, panic is rising in the ranks of the US decision makers. Mixed signals are being given by the Obama administration regarding the future plans in Afghanistan. Some circles are eying the 2014 as the final cut-off date while others are hinting about a longer delay. Right now, the US is not in the position to prolong the war anymore and that's why Pakistan is being framed as the core reason for the failure of WoT. Recent announcement of withdrawal is compulsion. NATO allies are also drawing down their troops. Canada and France have already announced the pull out. S. Within the US, the sinking economy is a serious concern for the Obama administration. Economic managers are asking for 25% cut in the US defense budget for the next year but two active wars, thousands of miles away from home, are demanding vast economic resources with no success on ground. "We can't simply lop off 25 percent off the defense budget overnight," President Obama said recently while replying to his economic advisors. "We have to think about all the obligations we have to our troops who are in the field, and making sure they're properly equipped and safe." According to Asia Society for Social Improvement and Sustainable Transformation, the US war spending can increase to more than $4 trillion. Political measures taken by the US in Afghanistan are also in tatters. The US efforts to form a broad based allied regime in Kabul have not paid any dividend so far as the Taliban have not abandoned their demand of complete and unconditional withdrawal of all foreign forces. Now the Americans are eyeing the Afghan National Army (ANA)'s strength to help sustain an allied regime in Kabul but this plan is already a disaster. ANA has an on paper strength of nearly quarter of a million troops but in reality, their training as well as their loyalties remain suspect and unreliable. They have never been able to hold their ground against the Taliban without the support ofthe foreign forces. ANA ranks are heavily penetrated by the Taliban and there is reported pilferage of thousands of weapons and millions of rounds of ammunition from the force, mostly ending up in the hands of the Taliban.
The US military commanders are also completely confused over the situation. The disagreements between the military commanders and political leadership are in the open now. The firing of General McChrystal is a case to note. The US commanders have hinted at a conditional withdrawal followed by the hope of a smooth transition whereas all the
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Helmand and Kandahar border Baluchistan not NWA, still death toll there is more than the North Eastern province bordering NWA. odds are against the allied forces in Afghanistan. According to General Rodriguez, ISAF commander since 2007, "As we move forward with the plan, the transition will continue to be condition-based". He also said that he believes that the transition is on track, and that the coalition and Afghan forces can achieve the 2014 goal of complete Afghan security responsibility along with the planned US troop drawdown.
fatalities in Afghanistan point in a different direction. ISAF forces have suffered more casualties in the Southern provinces of Afghanistan than in the North-Eastern provinces bordering Pakistan's NWAregion.
The propaganda about the intervention in Afghan areas from North Waziristan Agency (NWA) is another psy-ops by the US. The US officials have been mounting pressure on the Pakistan army to launch a full scale military offensive in NWA to dismantle the Haqqani network and other groups with whom the Pakistan army had signed peace agreements in order to cut down their intervention in Afghanistan. But the statistics of the ISAF
Afghanistan is an extremely complex country in its pure social and political incarnation. Creating a supportive government is the biggest challenge for the US and there is not even a remote chance of success in sight in this regard. Even the US forces' commanders are well aware of the situation. The most critical task facing the coalition, according to Rodriguez is to "support good Afghan leaders and encourage them to build depth within their ranks, and inspire other leaders to join in helping create a hopeful future." The tribal system of Afghanistan has its own complex dynamics and the ISAF forces have failed to understand them. The US wants to westernize the Afghan society through western political
the Chinese strategic weapons. This Chinese threat perception includes India as well. 1. The Iranians are also averse to the American presence in the region. The Iranian security situation has remained restive particularly in the Eastern provinces as the American trained and funded Jundullah carried out multiple suicide attacks in the region. Now Iran has openly warned Pakistan against the US intentions of harming Pakistan's nuclear program. The CIA suffered a major setback when Pakistan and Iran joined hands against Jundullah and dismembered the organization. India remains the only regional player who desperately wants the Americans to stay in Afghanistan. But this insistence is not for the WoT but to protect the Indian investment in Afghanistan through which RAW is waging multiple wars inside Pakistan. India has also established a well organized spy network in Afghanistan behind Pakistan's back, working through the Indian trained Afghan secret service RAMA and the Karzai regime. The Indians are extremely nervous about the possibility of an American withdrawal from Afghanistan.
system but this move will always be faced with stiff resistance both physically and intellectually. The US objective to encircle China and Russia revolves around establishing a nuclear missile defense shield in Eastern Europe so that the US is able to intercept any ballistic missile on its way to the American coasts. There is clear friction between NATO and SCO on the US missile defense program as the deployment of this missile defense shield would be in a very close proximity of the Russian border. Under the Russian pressure, in 2009, President Barack Obama shelved a Bush administration proposal to station 10 missile interceptors in Poland and a radar facility in the Czech Republic. The Americans are now moving towards a newer plan of completing the task by deploying the system on the Aegis destroyers and cruisers. But still the US would require some installations in Romania and Poland which would again annoy the Russians. Six member states of the SCO have already expressed their concern over this ambitious American plan. "It could harm the strategic stability and international security," they maintained after a collective stance on the issue. Now Russia and China have signed an alliance to oppose the US ballistic missile defense program - BMD. For China this system can serve the US interest as a strategic model which, if successful in Europe, would be replicated anywhere in the world against
Pakistan and the Future dynamics of WoT:
The fate of the Afghan war is in the hands of Pakistan. But at the moment, Pakistan stands on very thin ice due to the staggering strategic confusion which the leadership has towards this threat and the theatre of war. Pakistan does not have a single friend in Afghanistan today. The relations with the Americans are extremely tense and even hostile. The Karzai regime is the extension of Delhi as per hostility and betrayals. The Afghan Taliban and other resistance groups are not hostile towards Pakistan but are not willing to support or defend Pakistan at this stage. The TTP are based in Afghanistan and continue to use their US protected base areas to wage a war against the Pakistani state. NATO supplies continue to pass through Pakistan. Drone strikes also continue with impunity. CIA continues to run JSOC operations inside Pakistan penetrating all organs of the state, media and political
within Pakistan. The recent surge of attacks in Dir and the military operations in Mohmad and Kurram regions are a manifestation of this newly deployed strategy. The Pakistan army has to fight at two hostile fronts simultaneously: • The Militants on ground are waging a high intensity war within the mainland. The CIA/US army, which are waging a covert war under the facade of alliance and military cooperation. The CIA/JSOC teams are actually running a parallel intelligence and covert operations network within Pakistan working on a collision course with the Pakistan army and lSI and undermining Pakistan's national security and nuclear program.
Pakistan destroyed USSR in Afghanistan. Today's US fate is also in Pakistan's hands. parties. Only the lSI and the army are resisting the CIA as well as the TTP but their capacity to resist remains extremely incapacitated in the absence of organizational support from the government, judiciary and the media. This is not just a staggering policy failure but also reeks of betrayals within the highest levels of the government and society. Despite being in a state of urban decentralized war, the matter is not being treated as an existential crisis but as a local law and order issue to be dealt with local police officers and corrupt judiciary. The pressure continues to rise on the Pakistan army as the TTP adopts even more aggressive and ruthless ways to wage their war against the state. Now the enemy combatants are attacking en masse from across the border and trying to control villages and territories
Hostile "allies" ? - The CIA-lSI war rages on!
In the presence of a corrupt and compromised regime, hostile media and an incapacitated judiciary, the odds are heavily against the army and the lSI. The present reactive response strategy deployed by the army can only stabilize the situation temporarily and buy some more time for the State and delay the strategy of the enemies but it cannot win the war or change the strategic profile of the regional theatre. Pakistan will continue to take losses and the army and lSI would always be taking hits as the initiative of surprise would always remain with the urban insurgents.
Asking the Right Questions:
In order to win this war, to crush the insurgencies within Pakistan and to stabilize Afghanistan In Pakistan's favor, Pakistan will have to deploy an aggressive and comprehensive response strategy. Before we give our recommendations for such a response strategy, we would like to answer some fundamental questions which are always raised whenever the Afghan solution is discussed. These questions and their correct answers would form the basis of Pakistan's response strategy towards this theatre of war.
NATO cannot resist such a regional, political and diplomatic alliance on Afghanistan. The Chinese and Iranian stand is identical to that of Pakistan. Saudi Arabia does not have its own Afghan policy and would support Islamabad under all circumstances for a broad based government in Afghanistan. The Russians can also be asked to join the regional group in order to evict the foreign forces. The question of Muslim peacekeeping forces can also be agreed upon within the regional Muslim countries. Pakistan can achieve this seemingly impossible diplomatic mission through aggressive diplomacy. Regional powers and the SCO group are not happy with the ERF presence in Afghanistan. 4. Can Pakistan use the NATO supplies as leverage in negotiations and even block them permanently?
Question: Is it possible to have peaceful and stable Afghanistan in the presence of Extra Regional forces in that country?
Answer: Impossible! Foreign forces are the root cause of the crisis and not the solution for it. The entire region and Pakistan is in a state of war because of foreign forces in Afghanistan. All strategies and options which are sincere and serious about peace in Afghanistan must demand an immediate and unconditional withdrawal of all foreign forces. 2. Question: Given the present political and economic conditions in the country, how can Pakistan negotiate favorable terms with the US and NATO and seek a withdrawal ofERF?
Answer: Sure Pakistan can. This is the most strategic stranglehold which Pakistan has on the NATO's jugular. NATO has not found any reliable alternate to its supplies from central Asia or Iran. The staggering cost of transportation from central Asia makes it a mission impossible. Almost 82% supplies and 65% fuel for NATO goes from Pakistan. A strong government in Islamabad can create enough diplomatic pressure, through the allies in the region, to use the NATO supplies as a leverage to demand a time line and an exit plan ofthe ERF from Afghanistan.
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Answer: Pakistan can make life difficult for the US and NATO at present but cannot negotiate decisively in the presence of this corrupt government in Islamabad. The regime in Islamabad is the reason for the state's multiple organ failures and catastrophic debacles in this war. The regime change in Islamabad is as critical as fighting the insurgency and CIA on ground. 3. Question: Even if Pakistan has a patriotic government in Islamabad, how can Pakistan force the exit of ERF from Afghanistan and bring about afavorable solution?
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Answer: The solution to the Afghan crisis lies not within Afghanistan but in the region. Pakistan will have to make a solid stand along with China, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey on the crisis. The US and
NATO supplies are also the biggest source of logistical support for the insurgencies against Pakistan. Thousands of "lost" containers inside Pakistan are delivered to insurgents and terrorist groups by NATO contractors. There are serious and critical reasons for Pakistan to block the NATO supplies. 5. Question: Can the US and NATO attack Pakistan if Islamabad blocks their supplies or becomes totally hostile on Afghanistan? Can wefight them?
alliance, Tajiks, UzbeksandHazaras? Answer: All regional countries and Pakistan agree that there should be a broad based government in Afghanistan. The Taliban had made the strategic blunder of waging a war against all other non-Pashtun ethnic communities in the country. This catastrophic political blunder later invited Western forces into the country. Pakistan has strong influence over the Pashtun groups. Iran has influence over Tajiks and Hazaras. Turkey is also closer to Taliban as well as the Northern Alliance groups. These Muslim countries can bring the Afghans to a table and convince them to forge unity within their ranks. Once the foreign forces are out and the Muslim nations and regional countries take responsibility for rebuilding Afghanistan under a broad based and peaceful government, this seemingly impossible task would be achievable. The Afghan Taliban are more moderate now and seem to have learnt their lesson but they will not come to negotiations as long as ERF are present in the country. Even if there are difficulties in bringing Afghans together politically once the ERF are gone, still the war which is flowing into Pakistan and destabilizing the nation would stop. All base areas and support infrastructure of the TTP and insurgencies would be eliminated once the ERF and India are ousted from the country. Historically the post 1992 Afghan civil war tells us that even when the Afghans were fighting amongst themselves, they were not destabilizing Pakistan, Iran or the region. The Taliban era in Afghanistan was the most peaceful one from Pakistan's perspective as there were no drugs, insurgencies or weapons flowing into Pakistan from there. The presence of the ERF and Indians in Afghanistan has turned that country and the region
Answer: The US and NATO do not have the capacity, the will, the economic strength or the military muscle to attack Pakistan! The war is going horribly wrong for them in Afghanistan. Their domestic economies are crashing under the burden of major wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. They have opened new fronts in the
Middle East. Their supplies pass through Pakistan. Almost 150,000 US, NATO soldiers and private contractors would starve to death or would be totally immobile sitting ducks without fuel within a week if their supplies are blocked from Pakistan in case of a war against Pakistan. They simply do not have the man power and reserve troops to wage another Iraq or Afghanistan or even Libya styled war against Pakistan. Pakistan can be harsh with them on all axes and control their jugular. This is not post 9/11 scenario. Now we can be harsh on them and we must. 6. Question: What kind of a government can we have in Afghanistan? Should we bring back the Taliban? How would we assure peace in the country? What will be thefate of Northern
into a cesspool of wars, drugs and insurgencies. The ERF and the Indians must be thrown out urgently by all possible means; the rest is manageable. 7. Question: Should we not try to stabilize Pakistan first before we attempt to intervene and stabilize Afghanistan? Pakistan is fragmenting and is under attack. Can we afford to get involved in Afghanistan diplomatically, economically and even militarily?
ERF can never stabilize the country as the experience of the last 10 years has proved. The war is going against the occupation forces and they must leave immediately in order to calm the resistance. The Taliban and Afghan resistance are willing to accept an international and Muslim mediation for peace talks and power sharing but their pre-condition remains that the foreign forces must leave Afghanistan first. The results of war so far prove that the foreign forces are part ofthe chaos and notthe solution of it. 9. Question: Can Pakistan army fight and defend the country alone against insurgencies and CIA under the present political, economic and media environment?
Answer: Pakistan is destabilized and under attack because Afghanistan is in turmoil. Afghanistan is in turmoil because there are ERF in that country. The solution lies in removing the ERF and getting involved with the help of regional friendly nations to bring peace in that country. Peace in Afghanistan will stop all support to insurgencies, terrorism and militancy in Afghanistan. Pakistan cannot be stabilized as long as terrorists have safe havens in Afghanistan and are backed by CIA/RA W. 8. Question: If the Americans leave now, there would be instability in Afghanistan. Isn't it necessary that the Americans must stay in Afghanistan till the country is stabilized and only then they should exit?
Answer: Pakistan army and lSI can stabilize the situation temporarily and win many battles but cannot fight and win the war without diplomatic maneuvering, political support, media psy-ops or the regional support of the friendly nations. The war strategy presently deployed by the Pakistan army is reactive in nature not pro-active or aggressive in order to take the war to the enemy. Pakistan has not even entered Afghanistan in hot pursuit of the terrorists nor cultivated any assets inside to neutralize the threat across the border. The presence of the USINATO forces in Afghanistan, their operations inside Pakistan under Af-Pak and state organ failure in Pakistan, all are creating a state
Answer: Afghanistan is destabilized because of the Americans and foreign forces in that country. The
dysfunction rapidly within Pakistan. The situation is getting untenable by the day. The strategy of the CIA and JSOC is to create maximum state failure in Pakistan in the coming days before they are forced to leave the region. Their covert grand strategic objective was to create security crisis in Pakistan in order to justify the de-nuclearization of Pakistan. This is their most critical mission objective but they have not achieved it yet. In the coming days, more and more ruthless and high profile attacks would be launched against the lSI, Army, nuclear installations and the critical state infrastructure to achieve this objective of state failure. The US is desperate to achieve its covert objectives and would be very ruthless against the state of Pakistan and its armed forces in the coming days.
The final word of caution and advice:
When the Geneva accord was signed in 1988 between the Pakistan government and the Kabul regime, the entire Afghan resistance was kept out of it and was abandoned. Despite having fought for 10 years and sacrificing over a million Afghans, the entire resistance was betrayed and left in the lurch. The result was a bloody civil war in Afghanistan for the next decade. The Geneva accord was a blunder of historic proportions which completely compromised Pakistan's entire stakes and interests in Afghanistan. Despite supporting the resistance for 10 years, Pakistan could never have a friendly government in Kabul while Afghanistan remained in a catastrophic condition of state failure. It was only during the Taliban era, from 1996 to 2001, that Pakistan had some form of a friendly government in Afghanistan. There were no insurgencies in Pakistan during that period and the Taliban had ousted all Indian assets from the regions under their control. Now Pakistan must NOT repeat the blunder of the Geneva accord and the post Afghan war era. In future, the Americans and NATO would not be our allies but Pashtun resistance and people of Afghanistan would be. Our present allies would change but our neighbors are permanent. Pakistan must never forget this. Pakistan cannot abandon the Afghan resistance now under any form of exit plan of the foreign forces and must make sure that a friendly and cooperative government is placed in a stable Afghanistan. The Afghans themselves do not have the capacity to
resolve their differences. They need help of friendly and Muslim nations from within the region. This is where Pakistan has to take the lead role. India is already planning a strategic role in Afghanistan. They are aggressive, pro-active and already present on ground. Pakistan must snatch Afghanistan from them. While Pakistan fights multiple insurgencies within its borders, it also has two mammoth challenges at hand now for which the entire strength of politics, diplomacy and military must be deployed with full force and wisdom: • Force the foreign forces to leave Afghanistan within the shortest possible time. Make sure that Afghanistan gets a stable friendly broad based government with peace in the country.
Americans do not want to leave Afghanistan. They are simply buying time. Pakistan will have to force them to exit and also make sure that they do not leave a mess behind them. This is the real challenge. This is NOT post 9/11 scenario. The Americans have been defeated in Afghanistan. Their economy at home is in shambles. Their military humiliated and in no position to wage another war. Pakistan can now fully stand up to the Americans and ask "Are you with us or against us?" If they are with us, they will have to do what we tell them to do. Else, we must do with them what we did to the Soviets. We have done it before. We can do it again.
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