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Week : Aug 08th to 13th Aug’ 2011

REPORT

WEEKLY
Analyst Speak

Metals, Crude Oil Heads For Biggest Weekly Drop Since May
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Week : Aug 08th to 13th Aug’ 2011

Week : Aug 08th to 13th Aug’ 2011

Economic Data
Date Time Currency Economic Data Forecast Previous

Fundamental Market Overview
Market
watch GOLD RESUMES RISE ON ECONOMIC FEARS, FED MEETING EYED
the last 10 sessions on intense fears the U.S. and euro zone economy are tipping back into recession. The inverse 25-day correlation log coefficient between Gold and the S&P 500 tightened to a 0.7, its strongest level in eight years. Bullion firmed after sources close to the matter told Reuters the European Central Bank is ready to buy Italian and Spanish bonds if key structural reforms are brought forward by Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. The news came a day after the ECB resumed buying government bonds, marking a fresh round of central bank money easing. RECESSION FEARS REMAIN, FOMC EYED Gold mostly held in positive territory even after U.S. government data showed the economy generated 117,000 jobs last month and unemployment fell to 9.1 percent. However, the dip in the jobless rate reflected more of a contraction in the size of the work force than an improved employment picture. The employment data eased pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve to take new action to boost growth after a string of lackluster economic data this week. Gold resumed its rally on Friday as an unexpectedly upbeat U.S. payrolls report and glimmers of hope for an end to the euro zone debt crisis failed to entice investors back toward riskier assets. Gold was briefly hit on Thursday with a bout of liquidation by traders scrambling to raise cash to meet margin calls in battered stock markets, but by Friday it had found its footing again as investors bet that nothing short of further government intervention would stave off deepening woes. The possibility of more Japanese yen intervention, European bond buying and even a third round of U.S. quantitative easing left investors with few options besides Gold. Bullion is up 12 percent after five weeks of gains. Spot Gold was up 0.8 percent at $1,661.09 an ounce, after it hit a record high of $1,681.67 early on Thursday. U.S. December Gold futures settled down $7.20 at $1,651.80 an ounce. Futures volume topped 200,000 lots for a third straight day as investors sought safe havens. Data released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed managed money in Gold futures and options raised their net length to a five-year high in the week up to Aug. 2. Gold benefited from a surge in volatility among U.S. stocks Friday. The S&P lost 10 percent in

Tue Aug 9

6:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm 11:45pm 11:45pm

USD USD USD USD USD

Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism FOMC Statement Federal Funds Rate

-0.5% 2.0% 43.1

1.8% 0.7% 41.4

<0.25%

<0.25%

Wed Aug 10

7:30pm 8:00pm 11:30pm

USD USD USD

Wholesale Inventories m/m Crude Oil Inventories Federal Budget Balance

0.9%

1.8% 1.0M

-140.3B

-43.1B

Market
watch

NYMEX-US CRUDE ENDS UP, BUT FALLS IN WEEK ON ECONOMY
options to hit the highest level since Libya descended into civil war in March, but ended the day lower as some degree of calm returned to financial markets. FUNDAMENTALS On the New York Mercantile Exchange, Crude for September delivery settled at $86.88 a barrel, edging up 25 cents, or 0.29 percent, after trading from $82.87 to $88.32. For the week, the contract fell $8.82, or 9.22 percent, from the $95.70 close on July 29. It was the biggest weekly drop since the record loss of $16.75, or 14.7 percent, in the week to May 6. OPEC oil ministers will meet if prices continue to fall, Iran's OPEC governor, Mohammad Ali Khatibi, said on the Oil Ministry news website SHANA.

Thu Aug 11

6:00pm 6:00pm 8:00pm

USD USD USD

Trade Balance Unemployment Claims Natural Gas Storage

-47.5B 402K

-50.2B 400K 44B

Fri Aug 12

6:00pm 6:00pm 7:25pm 7:25pm 7:30pm 7:30pm

USD USD USD USD USD USD

Core Retail Sales m/m Retail Sales m/m Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations Business Inventories m/m FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

0.2% 0.4% 63.3

0.0% 0.1% 63.7 3.4%

U.S. Crude Oil futures rose slightly in volatile trading on Friday to end a five-day losing streak on a positive jobs report and a pipeline fire in Iran. But for the week, Crude futures suffered a loss of more than 9 percent as deeper anxieties over the long-term course of economy sparked risk aversion for most of the recent sessions. In Asian trading, U.S. Crude futures fell to the day's low of $82, 87, lowest since Nov. 26 on worries of a global economic slowdown. Losses were pared sharply after news of a pipeline explosion in southwest Iran. An official of the National Iranian South Oil Company later played down the news, saying production had not been affected. In U.S. day trading, data showing that U.S. July nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected in July helped lift prices. For the rest of the day, oil futures traded within the early range, but in seesaw fashion, with the dollar's weakness proving supportive and tumbling equities on Wall Street stoking bearish sentiment. The day's erratic price movement caused the implied volatility in U.S. Crude Oil

Market
watch

BASE METALS FALL ON ECONOMY FEARS, ESCONDIDA RESTART
fearing demand would be hit if U.S. and global economic growth slowed further or slipped into recession. Copper suffered additional selling from the late news that workers had voted to end their two-week strike at Chile's giant Escondida mine. The world's largest Copper producer said it had taken steps to resume operations and workers would return early on Saturday morning. The mine shutdown had stoked fears of a global supply shortage. But once over, concerns that there would be too much supply amid slowing demand accelerated Copper's decline. Early on, data showing the United States added more jobs than forecast in July started the volatile session. Most markets quickly brushed off the positive labor report, returning their focus to European policymakers' inability to extinguish the debt crisis engulfing the region. Copper trimmed losses in after-hours trade, following the turnaround in equities. Many markets were cheered when sources said the European Central Bank might buy Italian bonds, raising hopes of an end to the euro zone debt saga.

0.7%

1.0%

Base metals hit multi-week lows on Friday, drawing minimal support from a turnaround in pummeled stock markets as traders focused on slowing economic growth and added Copper supply as a mine strike ends in Chile. Copper had lagged oil's deep losses on Thursday, when a combination of euro zone anxiety and fears of a double-dip recession in the United States triggered the biggest risk-asset meltdown since the 2008 financial crisis. But declines in base metals picked up the pace on Friday, with Copper the biggest loser in the commodities complex. Copper closed down 3.4 percent at $9,040 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange, having touched its lowest since June 28 at $9,010.75 and logging an 8 percent drop for the week. It was the red metal's biggest weekly decline since June 2010. Benchmark September Copper futures on the COMEX exchange in New York finished the session 11.85 cents lower at $4.1170 per lb, a 2.8 percent decline. They earlier fell as low as $4.0795 per lb, a level last seen on June 28. A slide in equity markets, falling for an eighth day in a row in a dizzying descent that wiped $2.5 trillion off the value of world stocks this week and brought back memories of the financial crisis, pulled Copper down with it. Despite late gains in blue-chip stocks, the damage was done in the Copper market. Investors scrambled to reduce holdings of risky assets,

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Week : Aug 08th to 13th Aug’ 2011

Week : Aug 08th to 13th Aug’ 2011

GOLD

SILVER

Weekly Chart

Expert

Observation

Expert
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 1801 1725 1688 1648 1611 1571 1494

Observation

MARKET OVERVIEW
COMEX Gold is in an upward phase. Last week COMEX Gold was sustaining at higher levels but was able to made a close above 1650$ an ounce. In the coming week 1600 $ will act as a major support in COMEX Gold. If COMEX Gold sustains above 1600 $ an ounce then above 1676$ an ounce it can touch the level of 1691$ an ounce and if COMEX Gold sustains below 1600$ then it can go slightly down and test the level of 1580$ an ounce.

MARKET OVERVIEW
COMEX Silver is in an upward consolidation phase. Last week COMEX Silver was down and made a close near to its week low. For the upcoming week 3600$ and 3480$ are the crucial supports and 4000$ and 4220$ are crucial resistance in COMEX Silver. In MCX Silver 61000 and 63000 will act as major resistance and 55500 and 54000 will act as major supports

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 4883 4409 4115 3935 3641 3461 2987

STRATEGY
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if COMEX Gold sustains above 1600 $ an ounce, then above 1676$ it can test the level of 1691$ an ounce and above 1700$ it can further move upward. Trade by keeping the strict stop losses. Major support for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1580$ and 1540$. Major resistance for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1700$ and 1730$ Major support in MCX Gold is 23900 and 23600 Major resistance in MCX Gold is 24750 and 25100

STRATEGY
Technically COMEX Silver is consolidating on charts. For the next week traders can use sell on higher level strategy if Silver sustains below the level of 4020$ an ounce, then it can test the level of 3700$ and 3600$ an ounce and below 3500$ it can further move downwards and in MCX Silver sustains below 61000 it can test the level of 55500 and below 55500 it can test the level of 54000. Trade by keeping the proper stop losses.

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Weekly Chart

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Week : Aug 08th to 13th Aug’ 2011

Week : Aug 08th to 13th Aug’ 2011

CRUDE

COPPER

Weekly Chart

Expert

Observation

Expert
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 120.910 105.18 96.03 89.45 80.30 73.72 57.99

Observation

MARKET OVERVIEW
NYMEX Crude is in upward phase. Last week Crude oil was sustaining at lower level and made a close near to its week low. For the coming week 80$ and 78$ will act as major supports and 101$ and 104.50$ a barrel will be a major resistance in NYMEX Crude. In MCX Crude Oil major resistance is found at 4500 and 4680 and major supports will be 4100 and 3980.

MARKET OVERVIEW
Copper is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buy on lower levels. Last week COMEX Copper was down for most part of the week. If next week COMEX Copper sustains above the level of 385 then above the level of 412 Copper can test the level of 418. In MCX Copper sustains above 385 then it can test the level of 405/410 if it does not break the level of 380 on the downside.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 518 471 441 424 394 377 330

STRATEGY
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy, if NYMEX Crude sustains above the level of 82 $ a barrel then can slightly come up and touch the level of 91 $ a barrel and in MCX if Crude sustains above 3770 then it can test the level of 4090 in this week. Trade by keeping the proper stop loss.

STRATEGY
For the upcoming week 425 and 440 will act as major resistance and 380 and 470 will act as major supports in COMEX Copper. For MCX Copper major resistance would be 417 and 433 and supports would be found at 380 and 365.

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Weekly Chart

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Week : Aug 08th to 13th Aug’ 2011

Week : Aug 08th to 13th Aug’ 2011

NATURAL GAS

USD / INR

Weekly Chart

Expert

Observation

Expert
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 4.682 4.353 4.147 4.024 3.818 3.695 3.366

Observation

MARKET OVERVIEW
Natural Gas is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buying on lower levels. Last week Natural Gas was down for most part of the week and closed near to its weekly low. If next week Natural Gas sustains below the level of 4.120 $ then below the level of 3.900$ Natural Gas can test the level of 3.810 $ and below 3.750 $ Natural Gas can further go down and test the level of 3.620 $. In MCX, if Natural Gas sustains below185in the coming week then it can test the level of 165, if it does not break the level of 184 on the upside.

MARKET OVERVIEW
USD/INR is consolidating on charts so traders can use the strategy of selling on higher levels. If next week USD/INR sustains below the level of 45.2000 then below the level of 44.4000 USD/INR can test the level of 44.2500.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 46.2300 45.3700 45.0400 44.5100 44.1800 43.6500 42.7900

STRATEGY
For the upcoming week 43.8500 and 43.6000 will act as major supports and 45.4500 and 46.0500 will act as major resistance in USD/INR.

STRATEGY
For the upcoming week 3.800$ and 3.600$ will act as major supports and 4.500$ and 4.830$ will act as major resistance in US Natural Gas. For MCX Natural Gas major resistance would be 202 and 215, supports would be found at 177 and 170.

Weekly Chart

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Week : Aug 08th to 13th Aug’ 2011

Week : Aug 08th to 13th Aug’ 2011

Weekly Market Update Commodity Watch
Symbol Exchange Expiry Date Commodity Name Price Unit Previous Close Open High Low Close Qty. Traded Net Weekly Open TurnOver * Interest (Rs. in Lakhs)

GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS LEAD ZINC NICKEL ALUMINUM

MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX

5 -OCT -11 5-SEP -11 30-AUG -11 19-AUG -11 26-AUG -11 30-AUG -11 30-AUG -11 30-AUG -11 30-AUG -11

GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS NATURAL GAS LEAD NICKEL ALUMINIUM

RS. / 10GM. RS. / KG. RS. / KG. RS/QUINTAL RS. / BBL. RS./ MM BTU RS. / KG. RS. / KG. RS. / KG.

23520 58898 436.85 4237 185.1 116.25 109.95 1098.8 115.55

23475 58752 437.2 4253 185.2 116.65 110.3 1100 116

24674 62384 439.7 4356 188.3 117.35 110.9 1113.6 117.2

23285 56591 393 3733 171.1 102.05 94.25 980.1 104.5

24651 58379 399.35 3843 176.1 103.45 95.55 990.1 105.7

284194 681755 519119 1446424 158130 76110 90430 246731 27710

1131 -519 -37.5 -394 -9 -12.8 -14.4 -108.7 -9.85

12879

6527354.41

16171 12001482.09 19655 30648 11092 3118 3572 6112 2256 2121150.53 5833320.48 353807.10 409342.69 460344.93 644596.14 148899.30

* Turnover Till Friday

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Week : Aug 08th to 13th Aug’ 2011

Week : Aug 08th to 13th Aug’ 2011

Weekly Market Update Commodity Watch
International Market
Commodity
GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS USD/INR

Weekly Pivots
Closing Price
1651.8 3821.1 411.7 86.88 3.941 44.71

% Change
1.26 -4.72 -8.09 -9.22 -4.92 1.15

Scripts
GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS LEAD ZINC NICKEL ALUMINUM

R3
26981.33 70704.00 504.08 5223.33 212.90 138.22 133.53 1294.93 134.53

R2
25592.33 64911.00 457.38 4600.33 195.70 122.92 116.88 1161.43 121.83

R1
25121.67 61645.00 428.37 4221.67 185.90 113.18 106.22 1075.77 113.77

PP
24203.33 59118.00 410.68 3977.33 178.50 107.62 100.23 1027.93 109.13

S1
23732.67 55852.00 381.67 3598.67 168.70 97.88 89.57 942.27 101.07

S2
22814.33 53325.00 363.98 3354.33 161.30 92.32 83.58 894.43 96.43

S3
21425.33 47532.00 317.28 2731.33 144.10 77.02 66.93 760.93 83.73

Weekly Gainers
Commodity GOLD Expiry Date 05-OCT -11 Closing Price 24651 % Change 4.81

Weekly Losers
Commodity ZINC LEAD NICKEL Expiry Date 30-AUG -11 30-AUG -11 30-AUG -11 Closing Price 95.55 103.45 990.10 % Change -13.10 -11.01 -9.89

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