This action might not be possible to undo. Are you sure you want to continue?
The US Day Ahead - Calendar & Market Outlook for Tuesday, June 14 by John Canavan 13 June 2011
Note: Stone & McCarthy Research is available on a per screen basis. The making of multiple copies of our research for circulation within or external to a subscribing firm is strictly prohibited by copyright laws.
Click here to print
-- Stone & McCarthy (Princeton) -- Treasuries were mostly a bit weaker Monday, giving back a portion of Friday's gains. Following a very quiet overnight, Treasuries spiked lower as U.S. based players began to enter the arena. A number of countries in Europe were closed for Whit Monday or the Queen's Birthday, so the downdraft may have been a little exaggerated. Stocks were drifting higher at the time, contributing to the selloff, and players were also taking profits following Friday's gains. European sovereign debt spreads were still widening though, and both Portuguese and Irish yields rose to post-euro record highs. That helped Treasuries quickly find their footing. Stock failed to hold their better early tone, and as stocks headed lower through the early afternoon, Treasuries scrambled back to small gains. There were no U.S. data releases to offer any direction and once stocks rebounded in the afternoon, Treasuries faded to small losses across most of the curve into the close. The data calendar was empty today, but it is very busy this week, and that begins with the PPI and Retail Sales releases first thing Tuesday morning. We anticipate both releases will be slightly below expectations. The weaker Retail Sales figures in particular would generally be supportive, but players have already been pricing in a weakening economy, and it may take a number well below the median estimate to actually generate a sustainable bid. Public Appearances and Events:
The Bank of Japan Policy Board winds up a two-day meeting. The Bank is likely to maintain its bias towards easing, but further measures to provide liquidity -- if any -- will probably be confined to the areas that directly felt the impacts of the earthquake and tsunami.
14:30 ET - Chairman Ben Bernanke will give a speech on "Fiscal Sustainability" at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget Annual Conference in Washington, DC. Bernanke will probably stay away from the topic of monetary policy. Instead, he will reiterate the need for a credible plan to reduce long-term 1
Declines in motor vehicle sales that were in part from limited inventories of the most sought-after models should also moderate sales. SMR's forecast for retail sales is -0. Economic and Market Data: 07:45 ET .The May data on Retail Sales is likely to look soft due to slowing rises in gasoline prices that will moderate the pace service station sales. although higher prices per vehicle may cushion that a bit. 08:30 ET . and of the dire consequences of markets losing confidence in the safety and soundness of US securities. especially for items like air conditioners. Slow activity in housing probably restrained sales of household appliances and furniture. The latest 2 . June 14 problems the government's debt. Other types of retailers may have a somewhat better performance.Calendar & Market Outlook for Tuesday. The release of some new games for the most popular consoles should have helped at electronic specialty stores. Warm weather probably means that seasonal merchandise did well at department and apparel stores.The US Day Ahead . There may continue to be some regional impacts from flooding in the Midwest and storms in the Northeast.6%.The ICSC/Goldman-Sachs Retail Activity Index for the week ended June 11 will probably reflect demand for seasonal merchandise during a period of hot weather in much of the US. At this time of year sales generally increase for building materials and gardening equipment. He probably will also warn against making the increase of the statutory debt limit a political issue.
Increases in energy and food costs were much more modest for the month. a few categories will probably account for most of the upward pressure in prices.5%. The latest Bloomberg survey has a median forecast of 0.1%. At the core.4% to +0. June 14 Bloomberg survey has a median forecast of 0.The Producer Price Index for May promises to have a more benign cast after several months of fairly sharp rises at the headline.0% 08:30 ET . with a range of -0.Calendar & Market Outlook for Tuesday. These should include those for gold and other precious metals.4% to 0. SMR believes that the PPI will remain flat for the month of May. with a range of -0.The US Day Ahead . and for passenger cars where disruptions in the supply chain at a time of increased demand pushed prices up. 3 .6%.
The report Business Inventories in April will provide the final piece of the inventory puzzle with the release of data on stocks at retailers.2%. 4 . The Bloomberg forecasting survey has a median of 0.8%). June 14 10:00 ET . with a range from 0.The US Day Ahead .9%.3%) and wholesalers (+0. This will feed into expectations for the change in inventories component of the second quarter GDP.Calendar & Market Outlook for Tuesday.5% to 1. Increases were already reported for factories (+1.9%. SMR's forecast for business inventories is +0.
Contributors: John Canavan. and Terry Sheehan © Stone & McCarthy Research Associates Inc.The US Day Ahead .Calendar & Market Outlook for Tuesday. June 14 Fixed Income and Other Market Activity: For Andrew and John. 2011 5 .. Andrew Brodsky. Andrew Stone.