Peak oil

1

Peak oil
Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. This concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, and the combined production rate of a field of related oil wells. The aggregate production rate from an oil field over time usually grows exponentially until the rate peaks and then declines—sometimes rapidly—until the field is depleted. This concept is derived from the Hubbert curve, and has been shown to be applicable to the sum of a nation’s domestic production rate, and is similarly applied to the global rate of petroleum production. Peak oil is often confused with oil depletion; peak oil is the point of maximum production while depletion refers to a period of falling reserves and supply.

A logistic distribution shaped production curve, as originally suggested by M. King Hubbert in 1956.

M. King Hubbert created and first used the models behind peak oil in 1956 to accurately predict that United States oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970.[1] His logistic model, now called Hubbert peak theory, and its variants have described with reasonable accuracy the peak and decline of production from oil wells, fields, regions, and countries,[2] and has also proved useful in other limited-resource Peak oil depletion scenarios graph, which depicts cumulative published depletion production-domains. According to the studies by the ASPO and other depletion analysts (Oil Shock Model is elaborated in "The Oil Conundrum"). Hubbert model, the production rate of a limited resource will follow a roughly symmetrical logistic distribution curve (sometimes incorrectly compared to a bell-shaped curve) based on the limits of exploitability and market pressures. Some observers, such as petroleum industry experts Kenneth S. Deffeyes and Matthew Simmons, believe the high dependence of most modern industrial transport, agricultural, and industrial systems on the relative low cost and high availability of oil will cause the post-peak production decline and possible severe increases in the price of oil to have negative implications for the global economy. Predictions vary greatly as to what exactly these negative effects would be. If political and economic changes only occur in reaction to high prices and shortages rather than in reaction to the threat of a peak, then the degree of economic damage to importing countries will largely depend on how rapidly oil imports decline post-peak.

Peak oil Optimistic estimations of peak production forecast the global decline will begin by 2020 or later, and assume major investments in alternatives will occur before a crisis, without requiring major changes in the lifestyle of heavily oil-consuming nations. These models show the price of oil at first escalating and then retreating as other types of fuel and energy sources are used.[3] Pessimistic predictions of future oil production operate on the thesis that either the peak has already occurred,[4] [5] [6] [7] that oil production is on the cusp of the peak, or that it will occur shortly.[8] [9] The International Energy Agency (IEA) says production of conventional crude oil peaked in 2006.[10] [11] Throughout the first two quarters of 2008, there were signs that a global recession was being made worse by a series of record oil prices.[12]

2

Demand for oil
The demand side of peak oil is concerned with the consumption over time, and the growth of this demand. World crude oil demand grew an average of 1.76% per year from 1994 to 2006, with a high of 3.4% in 2003-2004. After reaching a high of 85.6 million barrels per day in 2007, world consumption decreased in both 2008 and 2009 by a total of 1.8%, due to rising fuel costs.[13] Despite this lull, world demand for oil is projected to increase 21% over 2007 levels by 2030 (104 million barrels per day (16.5×106 m3/d) from 86 million barrels (13.7×106 m3)), due in large part to increases in demand from the transportation sector.[14] [15] [16] A study published in the journal Energy Policy predicted demand would surpass supply by 2015 (unless constrained by strong recession pressures caused by reduced supply).[9]

Petroleum: top consuming nations, 1960-2006.

Energy demand is distributed amongst four broad sectors: transportation, residential, commercial, and industrial.[17] [18] In terms of oil use, transportation is the largest sector and the one that has seen the largest growth in demand in recent decades. This growth has largely come from new demand for personal-use vehicles powered by internal The world increased its daily oil consumption from 63 million barrels (Mbbl) in combustion engines.[19] This sector also has 1980 to 85 million barrels in 2006. the highest consumption rates, accounting for approximately 68.9% of the oil used in the United States in 2006,[20] and 55% of oil use worldwide as documented in the Hirsch report. Transportation is therefore of particular interest to those seeking to mitigate the effects of peak oil. Although demand growth is highest in the developing world,[21] the United States is the world's largest consumer of petroleum. Between 1995 and 2005, U.S. consumption grew from 17700000 barrels per day ( m3/d) to

[21] In 2008. China.[27] The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated that the United States' demand for petroleum-based transportation fuels fell 7. most often of oil.[32] The United States Census Bureau predicts that the world population in 2030 will be almost double that of 1980.[31] United States oil production peaked in 1970. an increase of 3600000 barrels per day ( m3/d). in part due to increasing interest in and mandates for use of biofuels and energy efficiency.7% gain in 2009.[22] As countries develop.[36] World population .[23] China has seen oil consumption grow by 8% yearly since 2002." The agency stated that gasoline usage in the United States may have peaked in 2007. increased consumption from 3400000 barrels per day ( m3/d) to 7000000 barrels per day ( m3/d). auto sales in China were expected to grow by as much as 15-20%. By 2005 imports were twice the production. Oil production per capita peaked in 1979. will lead the increase.[34] [35] Physicist Albert Bartlett argues that the decline of the rate of oil production per capita has gone undiscussed because population control is considered politically incorrect by some.1% in 2008. resulting in part from economic growth rates of over 10% for 5 years in a row. industry and higher living standards drive up energy use. a 3000000 barrels per day ( m3/d) increase. by comparison. in the same time frame.Peak oil 20700000 barrels per day ( m3/d). in particular China. the CNPC said. which is "the steepest one-year decline since at least 1950. Thriving economies such as China and India are quickly becoming large oil consumers.6% in 2009. Oil consumption had not fallen for two years in a row since 1982-1983. Asian economies.[24] Although swift continued growth in China is often predicted. and that it would fall by 0.[30] China’s oil demand may rise more than 5% compared with a 3.[26] 3 The International Energy Agency estimated in January 2009 that oil demand fell in 2008 by 0.[33] Author Matt Savinar predicts that oil production in 2030 will have declined back to 1980 levels as worldwide demand for oil significantly out-paces production.[28] [29] The EIA now expects global oil demand to increase by about 1600000 barrels per day ( m3/d) in 2010. rising to 5 million barrels per day (790×103 m3/d). Population Another significant factor on petroleum demand has been human population growth. others predict that China's export dominated economy will not continue such growth trends due to wage and price inflation and reduced demand from the United States.[25] India's oil imports are expected to more than triple from 2005 levels by 2020.3%. doubling from 1996-2006.

9 to 81.4553×106 to 13. hydrogen can be generated without fossil fuels using methods such as electrolysis. By 2007.73 barrels per year (0. and a high cost for importing natural gas. a fall in global oil supplies could cause spiking food prices and unprecedented famine in the coming decades. the world oil production took a downturn from 84. oil production was. or by 8.631 million barrels (12.631 to 84. global oil production during that same period increased from 74.706 m3/a) in 1993. the population grew at 2. from 77.79 barrels per year (0.3632×106 to 13. For example.[45] 4 Petroleum supply Discoveries Growing gap between discovery and production .89×106 m3).[33] [37] One factor that has so far helped ameliorate the effect of population growth on demand is the decline of population growth rate since the 1970s.597 million barrels per day (13.44 barrels per year (0. until 2005. The specific fossil fuel input to fertilizer production is primarily natural gas.Peak oil Oil production per capita has declined from 5. Given sufficient supplies of renewable electricity.[42] [43] The largest consumer of fossil fuels in modern agriculture is ammonia production (for fertilizer) via the Haber process.8%. which is essential to high-yielding intensive agriculture.[33] whereas according to BP.07 billion in 2000 to 6.2%. still outpacing population growth to meet demand. World population grew by 6.836 m3/a) in 1980 to 4.[33] [37] but then increased to 4. to provide hydrogen via steam reforming. In 1970.762 m3/a) in 2005.4498×106 m3/d) although population has continued to increase. because Iceland has those resources in abundance while having no domestic hydrocarbon resources.91×106 to 12.2% from 6.[37] Agricultural effects and population limits Since supplies of oil and gas are essential to modern agriculture techniques.45 billion in 2005. the Vemork hydroelectric plant in Norway used its surplus electricity output to generate renewable ammonia from 1911 to 1971. and world population by two-thirds.4553×106 m3). or by 8.[44] Iceland currently generates ammonia using the electrical output from its hydroelectric and geothermal power plants.752 m3/a). the growth rate had declined to 1.762 to 84.1 million barrels (11.167%.[33] [37] In 2006.[39] or according to EIA.1%.[38] However. This has caused the oil production per capita to drop again to 4. and that to achieve a sustainable economy and avert disaster the United States population would have to be reduced by at least one-third.26 barrels per year (0.[40] [41] Geologist Dale Allen Pfeiffer contends that current population levels are unsustainable.

the rate of discovery has been falling steadily since. These are referred to as 1P/Proven (90-95%). Many current 2P calculations predict reserves to be between 1150-1350 Gb.[51] Reserves Total possible conventional crude oil reserves include all crude oil with 90-95% certainty of being technically possible to produce (from reservoirs through a wellbore using primary.Peak oil 5 “ “ All the easy oil and gas in the world has pretty much been found. and discovered reserves which have a 5-10% possibility of being produced in the future. a former chairman of Shell. December 2005 It is pretty clear that there is not much chance of finding any significant quantity of new cheap oil. or [53] coal-to-liquid processes). Any new or unconventional oil is going to be expensive. production first surpassed new discoveries. Now comes the harder work in finding and producing oil from more challenging environments and work areas.[5] [9] Reserves in effect peaked in 1980. it first needs to be discovered.[5] . the annual rate of discovery of new fields has remained remarkably constant at 15-20 Gb/yr.[50] According to a 2010 Reuters article. enhanced. 2P/Probable (50%). Cummings.S.[52] This does not include liquids extracted from mined solids or gasses (oil sands. Exxon-Mobil company spokesman. The peak of world oilfield discoveries occurred in 1965[48] at around 55 billion barrels(Gb)/year. all crude with a 50% probability of being produced in the future. or tertiary methods). Less than 10 Gb/yr of oil were discovered each year between 2002-2007. gas-to-liquid processes. withheld information. but because of misinformation. though creative methods of recalculating reserves have made this difficult to establish exactly. when 2004 U. and 3P/Possible (5-10%).[49] According to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO). government predictions for oil production other than in OPEC and the former Soviet Union. ” [46] — William J. it has been reported that 2P reserves are likely nearer to 850-900 Gb. Proven oil reserves. 2009. secondary. oil shales. improved. and misleading reserve calculations. ” — Lord Ron Oxburgh. October 2008 [47] To pump oil.

The Energy Watch Group (EWG) 2007 report shows total world Proved (P95) plus Probable (P50) reserves to be between 854 billion and 1255 billion barrels (199. Many of the so-called reserves are in fact resources. presentation to the Oil and Money conference. and overall increases in costs due to complexity. This report was based on the leak of a . of which only 24 were fully proven. as the OPEC quota system allows greater output for countries with greater reserves. In many major producing countries. Some speculate that future technology will make further extraction possible. and environmentally sensitive areas or where high technology will be required to extract the oil. as well as the lack of depletion despite yearly production. 1255 billion barrels (199. over 70 nations also follow a practice of not reducing their reserves to account for yearly production. A lower rate of discoveries per explorations has led to a shortage of drilling rigs. former VP of Aramco.6×109 m3) in reserve. All three have reasons to overstate their proven reserves: oil Graph of OPEC reported reserves showing refutable jumps in stated reserves without associated discoveries. the majority of reserves claims have not been subject to outside audit or examination. They're not delineated. Most of the easy-to-extract oil has been found. proven reserves are stated by the oil companies.[54] but this future technology is usually already considered in Proven and Probable (2P) reserve numbers. extreme downhole temperatures. ” [6] — Sadad I.5×109 m3) (30 to 40 years of supply if demand growth were to stop immediately). Al-Husseini estimated that 300 billion barrels (48×109 m3) of the world's 1200 billion barrels (190×109 m3) of proven reserves should be recategorized as speculative resources. they're not accessible. they’re not available for production. and governments of consumer countries may seek a means to foster sentiments of security and stability within their economies and among consumers. was reported in the January 2006 issue of Petroleum Intelligence Weekly to have only 48 billion barrels (7. for example. Major discrepancies arise from accuracy issues with OPEC's self-reported numbers.[46] Recent price increases have led to oil exploration in areas where extraction is much more expensive. increases in steel prices.[57] [58] This was best exemplified by the 2004 scandal surrounding the 'evaporation' of 20% of Shell's reserves. the producer states and the consumer states. companies may look to increase their potential worth.[59] For the most part. Many worrying signs concerning the depletion of proven reserves have emerged in recent years. producer countries gain a stronger international stature. such as in extremely deep wells.Peak oil Current technology is capable of extracting about 40% of the oil from most wells. Besides the possibility that these nations have overstated their reserves for political reasons (during periods of no substantial discoveries). October 2007.[6] One difficulty in forecasting the date of peak oil is the opacity surrounding the oil reserves classified as 'proven'.[5] Analysts have suggested that OPEC member nations have economic incentives to exaggerate their reserves.[54] Kuwait.5×109 m3) is therefore a best-case scenario. Al-Husseini.[55] [56] Concerns over stated reserves 6 “ [World] reserves are confused and in fact inflated.

resulting in higher production costs and up to three times more greenhouse gas emissions per barrel (or barrel equivalent) on a "well to tank" basis or 10 to 45% more on a "well to wheels" basis.[73] Chuck Masters of the USGS estimates that. These unconventional sources are more labor and resource intensive to produce. oil sands. roughly 5-6 billion barrels (950×106 m3). with rule changes by the SEC. The IEA official alleged industry insiders agree that even 90 to 95000000 barrels per day ( m3/d) might be impossible to achieve. the USGS updated the Orinoco tar sands (Venezuela) recoverable "mean value" to 513 billion barrels (8.[62] This view is refuted by ecological journalist Richard Heinberg.[70] and the oil shales of the Green River Formation in Colorado.[71] [72] Energy companies such as Syncrude and Suncor have been extracting bitumen for decades but production has increased greatly in recent years with the development of Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage and other extraction technologies. resources needed. requiring extra energy to refine. and environmental effects of extracting unconventional sources has traditionally been prohibitively high.[75] In October 2009. Although many outsiders had questioned the IEA numbers in the past.[65] A 2008 analysis of IEA predictions questioned several underlying assumptions and claimed that a 2030 production level of 75000000 barrels per day ( m3/d) (comprising 55000000 barrels ( m3) of crude oil and 20000000 barrels ( m3) of both non-conventional oil and natural gas liquids) was more realistic than the IEA numbers. the IEA predicted that 2030 production rates would reach 120000000 barrels per day ( m3/d). such as heavy crude oil. are approximately equal to the Identified Reserves of conventional crude oil accredited to the Middle East. this was the first time an insider had raised the same concerns. "Taken together. the reported 1. a senior official at the IEA alleged that the United States had encouraged the international agency to manipulate depletion rates and future reserve data to maintain lower oil prices. Additionally.[64] In November 2009. This leaked document is from 2001. but this number was gradually reduced to 105000000 barrels per day ( m3/d). However. Alberta While the energy used.5 billion barrels (240×106 m3) of oil burned off by Iraqi soldiers in the First Persian Gulf War[61] are conspicuously missing from Kuwait's figures. which includes the carbon emitted from combustion of the final product."[74] Authorities familiar with the resources believe that the world's ultimate reserves of unconventional oil are several times as large as those of conventional oil and will be highly profitable for companies as a result of higher prices in the 21st century.[67] [68] 7 Syncrude's Mildred Lake mine site and plant near Fort McMurray.[66] oil companies can now book them as proven reserves after opening a strip mine or thermal facility for extraction.[22] but excludes revisions or discoveries made since then. to justify higher prices. in the Western Hemisphere. and Wyoming in the United States. however. making this area "one of the world's largest recoverable oil accumulations".[7] Unconventional sources Unconventional sources.[65] In 2005.7×109 m3).[60] so the figure includes oil that has been produced since 2001.[69] the Athabasca Oil Sands in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin.[63] Other analysts argue that oil producing countries understate the extent of their reserves to drive up the price.16×1010 m3). these resource occurrences.Peak oil confidential document from Kuwait and has not been formally denied by the Kuwaiti authorities. Utah. with a 90% chance of being within the range of 380-652 billion barrels (103.[76] . the three major unconventional oil sources being considered for large scale production are the extra heavy oil in the Orinoco Belt of Venezuela. investigative journalist Greg Palast argues that oil companies have an interest in making oil look more rare than it is. and oil shale are not counted as part of oil reserves. On the other hand.

[84] A 2007 news bulletin published by Los Alamos Laboratory proposed that hydrogen (possibly produced using hot fluid from nuclear reactors to split water into hydrogen and oxygen) in combination with sequestered CO2 could be used to produce methanol.S.60 "at the pump" in U.[78] Another study claims that even under highly optimistic assumptions. because the feedstock that had previously been considered as hazardous waste now had market value. viscous. out of garbage. which could then be converted into gasoline.[81] However." although production could reach 5000000 bbl/d ( m3/d) by 2030 in a "crash program" development [79] effort.in some cases. recent high oil prices make these sources more financially appealing. [77] Moreover. much of which is heavy.Peak oil 8 Despite the large quantities of oil available in non-conventional sources. oil extracted from these sources typically contains contaminants such as sulfur and heavy metals that are energy-intensive to extract and can leave tailings .ponds containing hydrocarbon sludge . Simmons states that "these are high energy intensity projects that can never reach high volumes" to offset significant losses from other sources. markets. Matthew Simmons argues that limitations on production prevent them from becoming an effective substitute for conventional crude oil.[85] . and contaminated with sulfur and metals to the point of being unusable. The article claimed that the cost of the process was $15 per barrel.[82] Synthetic sources A 2003 article in Discover magazine claimed that thermal depolymerization could be used to manufacture oil indefinitely.[54] A study by Wood Mackenzie suggests that within 15 years all the world’s extra oil supply will likely come from unconventional sources. The press release stated that in order for such a process to be economically feasible. gasoline prices would need to be above $4. Unconventional resources are much larger than conventional ones. Capital and operational costs were uncertain mostly because the costs associated with sequestering CO2 are unknown.[67] [80] The same applies to much of the Middle East's undeveloped conventional oil reserves.[83] A follow-up article in 2006 stated that the cost was actually $80 per barrel. and agricultural waste. "Canada's oil sands will not prevent peak oil. sewage.

24 million barrels per day (13. Source: Middle East Economic Survey The increasing investment in harder-to-reach oil is a sign of oil companies' belief in the end of easy oil. from 2005. and use of strategic oil reserves.[32] OPEC Crude Oil Production 2002-2006 (in 1. oil production per capita peaked in 1979 (preceded by a plateau during the period of 1973-1979). worldwide production is past or near its maximum. oil production is unlikely to increase significantly beyond its current level.[88] Average yearly gains in global supply from 1987 to 2005 were 1.[86] Recent work points to the difficulty of increasing production even with vastly increased investment in exploration and production. global supply (which includes biofuels. According to a January 2007 International Energy Agency report. an increasing number of oil industry insiders are now coming to believe that even with higher prices. A 2008 Journal of Energy Security analysis of the energy return on drilling effort in the United States points to an extremely limited potential to increase production of both gas and (especially) oil. non-crude sources of petroleum. By looking at the historical response of production to variation in drilling effort. Among the reasons cited are both geological factors as well as "above ground" factors that are likely to see oil production plateau near its current level.7% a year. the energy obtained per active drill rig was reduced according to a severely diminishing power law. This is because production capacity is the main limitation of supply. Because of this.[46] Additionally. while it is widely believed that increased oil prices spur an increase in production. the IEA drastically increased its prediction of production decline from 3.Peak oil 9 Production The point in time when peak global oil production occurs defines peak oil. when production decreases.552×106 m3/d) in 2006.000s barrels/day).[87] Worldwide production trends World oil production growth trends were flat from 2005 to 2008.2 million barrels per day (190×103 m3/d) (1. World wide oil discoveries have been less than annual production since 1980.7% a year to 6. at least in mature petroleum regions.[4] [5] [6] [8] World population has grown faster than oil production. This fact means that even an enormous increase of drilling effort is unlikely to lead to significantly increased oil and gas production in a mature petroleum region like the United States.[89] . up 0.[88] In 2008. this analysis showed very little increase of production attributable to increased drilling. it becomes the main bottleneck to the petroleum supply/demand equation. based largely on better accounting methods. Therefore.76 million barrels per day (121×103 m3/d) (0.[5] According to several sources. including actual research of individual oil field production through out the world. in addition to crude production) averaged 85.9%). This was due to a tight quantitative relationship of diminishing returns with increasing drilling effort: as drilling effort increased.7%).

the field could account for up to 11% of U.[102] Saudi Arabia's inability. announced 5 September 2006. plus a mix of new small fields and field expansions—overly optimistic. but considers the rate of new fields coming online—100% of all projects in development.1% in 800 of the world's largest oil fields was reported by the International Energy Agency in their World Energy Outlook 2008. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia.[98] due to past overproduction.[95] Kjell Aleklett of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas agrees with their decline rates. The CERA report projects a 2017 production level of over 100 million barrels per day (16×106 m3/d).S. PEMEX built the largest nitrogen plant in the world in an attempt to maintain production through nitrogen injection into the formation. at least 9 are in decline.[93] According to a study of the largest 811 oilfields conducted in early 2008 by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA). for instance.6% in 2030.[96] A more rapid annual rate of decline of 5. 10 . a Saudi Aramco spokesman admitted that its mature fields are now declining at a rate of 8% per year (with a national composite decline of about 2%).[54] Commentators have pointed to the Jack 2 deep water test well in the Gulf of Mexico.[103] as evidence that there is no imminent peak in global oil production. has peaked. The Jack 2 field.[91] This information has been used to argue that Ghawar.[99] but by 2006. even though oil discoveries are expected after the peak oil of production is reached. In 2000. the average rate of field decline is 4. to stabilize prices through increased production during that period suggests that no nation or organization had the spare production capacity to lower oil prices.[94] There are also projects expected to begin production within the next decade that are hoped to offset these declines. 2007. a long-time advocate of stabilized oil prices. Cantarell was declining at a rate of 13% per year. OPEC projected that it could maintain a production level that would stabilize the price of oil at around $50–60 per barrel until 2030. with oil above $98 a barrel. and that this would grow to 8.5% per year. but did not prove possible. The IEA stated in November Alaska's oil production has declined 65% since peaking in 1988 2008 that an analysis of 800 oilfields showed the decline in oil production to be 6.[90] In April 2006. is more than 20000 feet (6100 m) under the sea floor in 7000 feet (2100 m) of water.[104] However. production within seven years.7% a year.[105] the new reserves of oil will be harder to find and extract. In its 2007 annual report.[101] On November 18. the Burgan field in Kuwait.Peak oil Oil field decline Of the largest 21 fields. entered decline in November 2005. The implication is that those major suppliers who had not yet peaked were operating at or near full capacity. which is the largest oil field in the world and responsible for approximately half of Saudi Arabia's oil production over the last 50 years.[100] OPEC had vowed in 2000 to maintain a production level sufficient to keep oil prices between $22–28 per barrel. announced that his country would not increase production to lower prices. as the world's largest supplier.[97] Mexico announced that its giant Cantarell Field entered depletion in March 2006.[54] [92] The world's second largest oil field. According to one estimate. but with 30% of them experiencing delays.

contends that OPEC has trained consumers to believe that oil is a much more finite resource than it is. and Socal) and created their own oil companies to control the oil. It does this by allocating each member country a quota for production. Royal Dutch Shell. where access by Western companies is difficult. Saudi Arabia. OPEC's power was consolidated as various countries nationalized their oil holdings. but because of a self-imposed cap. Major oil companies operating in Venezuela find themselves in a difficult position because of the growing nationalization of that resource. Kuwait. Saudi Arabia is also limiting capacity expansion. Additionally. limiting drilling rights. corruption. Fully 65% are in the hands of state-owned companies such as Saudi Aramco.[108] Cartel influence on supply OPEC is an alliance between 12 diverse oil producing countries (Algeria." (Anglo-Iranian. co-founder of ASPO. OPEC tries to influence prices by restricting production. and wrested decision-making away from the "Seven Sisters. unlike the other countries. The PFC study implies political factors are limiting capacity increases in Mexico.5 kilometers (5.[64] He also believes that peak oil analysts are conspiring with OPEC and the oil companies to create a "fabricated drama of peak oil" to drive up oil prices and profits. Texaco. Qatar. These countries are now reluctant to share their reserves. he points to past false alarms and apparent collaboration.S. and Venezuela) to control the supply of oil. Iran. debated on CNBC in June 2007. the United Arab Emirates. A counter-argument was given in the Huffington Post after he and Steve Andrews.Peak oil requiring 8. Gulf. To back his argument. etc.[110] Alternately. Kate Dourian. The nationalization of oil occurs as countries begin to deprivatize oil production and withhold exports. Kuwait. only 7% of the world's estimated oil and gas reserves are in countries that allow companies like ExxonMobil free rein. ExxonMobil is not making nearly the investment in finding new oil that it did in 1981.[111] . commodities trader Raymond Learsy. and military conflicts can also reduce supply.[107] As a result of not having access to countries amenable to oil exploration. Iraq. points out that while estimates of oil reserves may vary. Nigeria. International sanctions. the purpose for the second Iraq war is to break the back of OPEC and return control of the oil fields to western oil companies.[109] Washington kept the oil flowing and gained favorable OPEC policies mainly by arming. All 12 members agree to keep prices high by producing at lower levels than they otherwise would. with the rest in countries such as Russia and Venezuela. "Some countries are becoming off limits. and Russia. Esso. Platts' Middle East editor. Venezuela."[106] According to consulting firm PFC Energy. Angola. There is no way to verify adherence to the quota. According to some. author of Over a Barrel: Breaking the Middle East Oil Cartel. Socony-Vacuum. so every member faces the same incentive to ‘cheat’ the cartel. cutting back on production. consumption at present levels. imposing taxes.4×109 m3) represents slightly less than 2 years of U.[18] 11 Control over supply Entities such as governments or cartels can reduce supply to the world market by limiting access to the supply through nationalizing oil.3 miles) of pipe to reach. Libya. and propping up Saudi regimes. even the maximum estimate of 15 billion barrels (2. Nationalization of oil supplies Another factor affecting global oil supply is the nationalization of oil reserves by producing nations. Iraq. Iran. It is worth noting oil had risen to a little over $30/barrel at that time. Ecuador. politics have now entered the equation of oil supply.

former Chairman of Simmons & Company International and author of Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy."[117] Possible effects and consequences of peak oil The wide use of fossil fuels has been one of the most important stimuli of economic growth and prosperity since the industrial revolution. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides.S. the products produced with oil (including fertilizers. This underscores the fact that the only reliable way to identify the timing of peak oil will be in retrospect. without timely mitigation.peaking is one of these fuzzy events that you only know clearly when you see it through a rear view mirror. and their exports declined by over 3%. None of these predictions dispute the peaking of oil production. If alternatives are not forthcoming. Commentators such as James Howard Kunstler argue that because over 90% of transportation in the U. As peaking is approached. they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking. Internal consumption grew by 5. and political costs will be unprecedented.[120] A majority of Americans live in suburbs. relies on oil. that it will occur shortly.. King Hubbert initially predicted in 1974 that peak oil would occur in 1995 "if current trends continue. allowing humans to participate in takedown. production had declined to 72260000 barrels per day ( m3/d). However.[119] Mexico is already in this situation. ". It was estimated that by 2010 internal demand would decrease worldwide exports by 2500000 barrels per day ( m3/d). or the consumption of energy at a greater rate than it is being replaced. Some believe that when oil production decreases. and. adhesives.. or that a plateau of oil production will sustain supply for up to 100 years. in the late 1970s and early 1980s. reached an all-time high of 73720000 barrels per day ( m3/d) in 2005. Peak oil would .S. predictions have been refined through the years as up-to-date information becomes more readily available. a type of low-density settlement designed around universal personal automobile use.[118] Known as the Hirsch report. and modern technological society will be forced to change drastically. but to have substantial impact.9% in 2006 in the five biggest exporting countries. it stated. including oil from oil sands. the United States Department of Energy published a report titled Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts. liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically. human culture. Countries that rely on imported petroleum will therefore be affected earlier and more dramatically than exporting countries. & Risk Management. but disagree only on when it will occur. the suburbs' reliance on the automobile is an unsustainable living arrangement. then rebounded to a lower level of growth in the mid 1980s. and most plastics) would become scarce and expensive.[116] Predictions of the timing of peak oil include the possibilities that it has recently occurred. the economic. detergents. "The peaking of world oil production presents the U. By 2009. solvents.Peak oil 12 Timing of peak oil Worldwide oil production. Suburban housing near Cincinnati.[112] M." The Export Land Model states that after peak oil petroleum exporting countries will be forced to reduce their exports more quickly than their production decreases because of internal demand growth."[113] However. and by then an alternate resolution is generally too late. According to Matthew Simmons. global oil consumption actually dropped (due to the shift to energy-efficient cars.[115] and other factors). Mitigation. Thus oil production did not peak in 1995. Ohio In 2005. and has climbed to more than double the rate initially projected. The impact of peak oil will depend heavily on the rate of decline and the development and adoption of effective alternatives. social. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem.[114] the shift to electricity and natural gas for heating. such as new reserve growth data.

[127] Many such critics reason that if the price of oil rises high enough. urban villages. and the general implementation of 'energy descent culture' are argued to be ethical responses to the acknowledgment of finite fossil resources. moving to rural areas.[128] Permaculture. urban consolidation. it can also affect the timing of peak oil and the shape of the Hubbert curve. that a major obstacle to more compact development in the United States is political resistance from local zoning regulators. suburbia may become the "slums of the future. and second that further studies should be conducted to make future compact development more effective. that doubling residential density in a given area could reduce VMT by as much as 25% if coupled with measures such as increased employment density and improved public transportation. which would hamper efforts by state and regional governments to participate in land-use planning. Additional options include telecommuting.[129] The Transition Towns movement. energy use. longer vehicle lifespans.[123] Methods that have been suggested[124] for mitigating these urban and suburban issues include the use of non-petroleum vehicles such as electric cars. sees the restructuring of society for more local resilience and ecological stewardship as a natural response to the combination of peak oil and climate change. Fifth. Such mitigation could include energy conservation. and force them to use bicycles or electric vehicles. or moving to higher density areas.[126] This was similar to a plan proposed for Sweden that same year. particularly as expressed in the work of Australian David Holmgren.Peak oil leave many Americans unable to afford petroleum based fuel for their cars. Stressing the energy component of future development plans is seen as an important goal. battery electric vehicles. and the use of unconventional oil. started in Totnes. and others. that although short term reductions in energy use and CO2 emissions would be modest. sees peak oil as holding tremendous potential for positive change. In the latter two cases. smart growth. shared space. where walking and public transportation are more viable options. the committee agreed that changes in development that would alter driving patterns and building efficiency would have various secondary costs and benefits that are difficult to quantify. and indirect reductions (such as from lower amounts of materials used per housing unit. energy production. The report made two major recommendations: first that policies that support compact development (and especially its ability to reduce driving. stated six main findings. commissioned by the United States Congress. Because mitigation can reduce the use of traditional petroleum sources. that compact development is likely to reduce "Vehicle Miles Traveled" (VMT) throughout the country. and CO2 emissions) should be encouraged. transit-oriented development. that these reductions would grow over time. Positive aspects of peak oil Some observers opine that peak oil should be viewed as a positive event. new trains.[125] First. Car-free Cities. and mitigate global warming. bicycles. at least ten to twenty years before the peak. Third. and to phase out the use of petroleum over that time. the use of alternative clean fuels could help control pollution from fossil fuel use. Devon[130] and spread internationally by "The Transition Handbook" (Rob Hopkins). assuming countries act with foresight."[121] [122] The issues of petroleum supply and demand is also a concern for growing cities in developing countries (where urban areas are expected to absorb most of the world's projected 2.[131] . and higher efficiency delivery of goods and services). and New Urbanism. fuel substitution. 13 Mitigation To avoid the serious social and economic implications a global decline in oil production could entail. the 2005 Hirsch report emphasized the need to find alternatives. Second. Fourth.3 billion population increase by 2050). An extensive 2009 report by the United States National Research Council of the Academy of Sciences. higher efficiency climate control. that higher density. new pedestrianism. Sixth. mixed-use developments would produce both direct reductions in CO2 emissions (from less driving). The rebuilding of local food networks.

Besides supply and demand pressures. consumption was within 2 million barrels per day (320×103 m3/d) of production. the maximum inflation adjusted price was the equivalent of $95–100. and Iran.[139] In 2005.5% in the first two months of 2008.[133] compared to a drop of .S." missile launches in North Korea. OPEC admitted that they would 'struggle' to pump enough oil to meet pricing pressures for the fourth quarter of that year.[138] Demand pressures on oil have been strong. of oil had begun to have an effect on economies was that in the United States. and at any one time there are about 54 days of stock in the OECD system plus 37 days in emergency stockpiles.[143] .S. Department of Energy and others showing a decline in petroleum reserves.4% total in 2007.2009 increases happening within the last year of that period. Global consumption of oil rose from 30 billion barrels (4. which had fallen to only eight billion barrels of new oil reserves in new accumulations in 2004. Helping to fuel these price increases were reports that petroleum production is at[4] [5] [6] or near full capacity. in 1980.8×109 m3) in 2004 to 31 billion in 2005.[137] including the "War on Terror.[8] [136] [137] In June 2005.[12] One important indicator that supported the possibility that the price Long-term oil prices. 1861-2008 (top line adjusted for inflation).S. 2008 at over $143 a barrel. These prices are well above those that caused the 1973 and 1979 energy crises. with the most significant Texas Intermediate 1996 . dollar against other significant currencies from 2007 to 2008 is a significant part of oil's price increases from $66 to $130. and the price of oil rose 96% in the same time period.[140] the Crisis between Israel and Lebanon. Before this period.[134] However some claim the decline in the U. These consumption rates are far above new discoveries for the period.[141] nuclear brinkmanship between the U. the price of oil peaked on June 30.[135] The dollar lost approximately 14% of its value against the Euro from May 2007 to May 2008. gasoline consumption dropped by . at times security related factors may have contributed to increases in prices.Peak oil 14 Oil price In terms of 2007 inflation adjusted dollars. This has contributed to fears of an economic recession similar to that of the early 1980s.[132] Crude oil prices in the last several years steadily rose from about $25 a barrel in August 2003 to over $130 a barrel in May New York Mercantile Exchange prices for West 2008.[142] and reports from the U.

Some economists predict that a substitution [144] 1965-2005.093 long term. and other countries. where rising global prices and higher export revenue in exporting nations can lead to higher local consumption as their increased export revenue is spent.[148] The elasticity of OECD oil demand to rising prices is a function of many feedback mechanisms. effect will spur demand for alternate energy sources. this positive feedback mechanism of re-localisation of manufacturing production would therefore be positive for OECD oil demand. The effect the price of oil has on an economy is known as a price shock. Prior to the run-up in fuel prices. This substitution can only be temporary. such as coal or liquefied natural gas. where approx. The following graph reference shows a break down in US oil usage. [150] Another example of positive feedback in the oil market can be found in Export Land Models of oil exporting nations. some which are negative like fuel substitution.025 short term and -0. This trend has been reversing due to sustained high prices of fuel. and that record energy prices would cause an "enduring shift" in energy consumption practices. less fuel-efficient sport utility vehicles and full-sized pickups in the United States. such price shocks could potentially be mitigated somewhat by temporarily or permanently suspending the taxes as fuel costs rise. World consumption of primary energy by energy type in terawatts (TW). suggesting 2008 would be the first year U. such as the 1973 and 1979 energy crises. a report by Cambridge Energy Research Associates stated that 2007 had been the year of peak gasoline usage in the United States. The September 2005 sales data for all vehicle vendors indicated SUV sales dropped while small cars sales increased.[147] According to the report.[149] As OECD industrial manufacturing production requires energy.[146] In 2008. The total miles driven in the U. [152] . For example. 23% of oil usage is for industrial usage. and others which can result in positive feedback where higher prices can lead to higher oil demand. and therefore less oil production for export in a post peak production situation. a member of the OECD. Canadian economist Jeff Rubin has stated that higher oil prices will likely lead to higher freight shipping costs which will lead in turn to more manufacturing industry moving back to OECD countries (re-localisation of manufacturing production) for economic advantage. gasoline usage declined in 17 years. such as the United States. the price of oil has led to economic recessions.S. peaked in 2006. Canada.[151] Economic research carried out by the International Monetary fund gives an overall oil price demand elasticity figure of -0.Peak oil 15 Effects of rising oil prices In the past. and petrochemical inputs.[145] This method of softening price shocks is less useful in countries with much lower gas taxes. increased efficiency and conservation which re-enforce lower demand.S. as coal and natural gas are finite resources as well. In many European countries. in April gas consumption had been lower than a year before for the sixth straight month. many motorists opted for larger. Hybrid and diesel vehicles are also gaining in popularity. which have high taxes on fuels.

outer continental shelf. as well as assuming 2030 production rates inconsistent with projected reserves.) Peak oil has been predicted for 150 years... CEO of Shell Canada. who added that the recent high price phase might add to a future demise of the oil industry .not of lack of resources or an apocalyptic shock but the timely and smooth setup of alternatives. investment security. and economic obstacles to recovery. only 15% of those reserves are currently exploitable. (.[159] . while agreeing that conventional oil production will soon start to decline.. however. and as high as 2400 billion barrels (380×109 m3). Mississippi. operations John Hofmeister. Their 95% confidence EUR of 2300 billion barrels (370×109 m3) assumed that discovery levels would stay steady. social. would be insensitive to prices. It has never happened.[158] Clive Mather. Alabama." He also points to the large reserves at the U. Since 1965. These particular reserves present major environmental.. and it will stay this way. where Shell is already active. Chief economist of BP. Christoph Rühl. repeatedly uttered strong doubts about the peak oil hypothesis:[157] Physical peak oil. Utah.[153] but are in the form of oil shale.. said the Earth's supply of hydrocarbons is almost infinite. the world's largest exporter and OPEC swing producer. which I have no reason to accept as a valid statement either on theoretical. Another trillion barrels are also said to be trapped in rocks in Colorado. consumed at a certain rate. The Canadian oil sands—a natural combination of sand. (. (Global Warming) is likely to be more of a natural limit than all these peak oil theories combined. despite the fact that discovery levels have been falling steadily since the 1960s. The oil question is about price and not the basic availability. referring to hydrocarbons in oil sands. and Wyoming. major oil surveys have averaged a 95% confidence Estimated Ultimate Retrieval (P95 EUR) of a little under 2000 billion barrels (320×109 m3). As scientific understanding of petroleum geology has increased. and oil found largely in Alberta and Saskatchewan—is believed to contain one trillion barrels of oil. at least as it has been presented by Matthew Simmons. water. He thinks that high energy prices are causing social unrest similar to levels surrounding the Rodney King riots. That trend of falling discoveries has continued in the ten years since the USGS made their assumption. a good part of that off the coasts of Louisiana. has criticized Simmons's analysis for being "overly focused on a single country: Saudi Arabia. so has our understanding of the Earth's total recoverable reserves.[154] [155] Hofmeister also claims that if oil companies were allowed to drill more in the United States enough to produce another 2 million barrels per day (320×103 m3/d).[159] Engineer Peter Huber believes the Canadian oil sands can fuel all of humanity's needs for over 100 years. The president of Royal Dutch Shell's U. which holds an estimated 100 billion barrels (16×109 m3) of oil and natural gas. scientific or ideological grounds.S. technology. the main limitations for oil availability are "above ground" and are to be found in the availability of staff. money and last but not least in global warming. oil and gas prices would not be as high as they are in the later part of the 2000 to 2010 decade.. and Texas. and then it's finished – does not react to anything. According to Rühl.)In fact the whole hypothesis of peak oil – which is that there is a certain amount of oil in the ground.[156] Dr. technological innovations in finding and drilling for oil have at times changed the understanding of the total oil supply on Earth. expertise. Hofmeister also contends that Simmons erred in excluding unconventional sources of oil such as the oil sands of Canada.Peak oil 16 Historical understanding of world oil supply limits Although the Earth's finite oil supply means that peak oil is inevitable.[5] The EUR reported by the 2000 USGS survey of 2300 billion barrels (370×109 m3) has been criticized for assuming a discovery trend over the next twenty years that would reverse the observed trend of the past 40 years. though some estimates have been as low as 1500 billion barrels (240×109 m3). As things stand. His views are shared by Daniel Yergin of CERA.S. The 2000 USGS is also criticized for introducing other methodological errors.[5] Criticisms Some do not agree with peak oil..

Hill and Wang. • Deffeyes.a father trapped in Iraq. and the Fate of Industrial Societies. War. The Party's Over: Oil. . Frontlines: Fuel of War. a mother far away from her children.[162] takes place during a peak oil crisis. Richard (2004). The book follows Julian Comstock. ISBN 0-86571-563-7. Multi-Science Publishing. Oil Crisis. author of The Long Emergency[164] and The Geography of Nowhere. Multi-Science Publishing. Deffeyes. Colin J (2005). Colin J (1997). is set during a fictional World War after peak oil occurs. The Witch of Hebron. New Society Publishers.[167] was published in 2010.[165] fictionalized his predictions of post-oil civilization into a 2008 novel entitled World Made by Hand. It describes how rural East Anglia in Britain might survive amid government collapse and martial law. and American society has fallen back to a level similar to that of the Civil War. • Heinberg.as the complete break-down of law and order causes looting. Campbell. Kenneth S (2005). ISBN 0-906522-39-0. Richard (2006).[160] set in the early decades of the twenty-first century. A sequel. • Heinberg Richard (2003). Afterlight. It chronicles the crash of Saudi Arabia's biggest oil field. Further information Books • • • • Campbell. The sequel.[166] The book portrays the efforts of Robert Earle. WW Norton. • Goodstein David (2005). best known for his books on self-sufficiency. The Coming Oil Crisis. Last Light. a former software executive elected mayor of a small town in New York. a daughter and son fending for themselves . ISBN 0-86571-482-7. • Heinberg. It follows the experiences of a family . particularly of oil. Retrieved from the Future. ISBN 0-8090-2956-1. Campbell. The book portrays the collapse of the United Kingdom. ISBN 0-86571-510-6. during a series of battles and adventures across an American landscape where many cities have been scavenged for their precious resources. who faces the struggle of rebuilding a civil society amid arguing factions. Out of Gas: The End of the Age Of Oil. in which (Mad Max 2: The Road Warrior explains) the general social collapse has occurred because of a global energy shortage. The Essence of Oil & Gas Depletion. Robert Charles Wilson's 2009 book Julian Comstock: A Story of 22nd Century America[168] is set a hundred years after the end of the age of oil. The Mad Max films are based in a post-apocalyptic Australia. Andreas Eschbach is an engineer and writer who in 2007 published Ausgebrannt. The main character is a young man who scavenges from old shipwrecks and comes across a young woman trapped in a ship. Multi-Science Publishing. New Society Publishers. ISBN 0-906522-19-6.[163] was published in 2010. James Howard Kunstler. ISBN 0-691-09086-6. ISBN 0-906522-11-0. a 2008 first-person shooter video game for the Xbox 360 and PC. Princeton University Press. also wrote the first post-oil novel in 1996. Power Down: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World. Terrorism and Economic Collapse. Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak. and a petroleum engineer who is convinced he can find vast reserves of new oil. ISBN 0-393-05857-3. New Society Publishers. Kenneth S (2002). Paolo Bacigalupi's 2010 book Ship Breaker[169] is a young adult novel set in a postapocalyptic Gulf Coast. the nephew of the President. Colin J (2004). Americans live in their (now stationary) cars and commute by either jogging or riding bicycles.Peak oil 17 In fiction John Seymour. The Oil Depletion Protocol: A Plan to Avert Oil Wars. Alex Scarrow's 2007 novel. and worse. Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage. deaths. as a result of a full-scale terrorist attack against several important key installations in the Middle East.[161] a German novel that reached number seven on the Spiegel bestseller list. The 1979 comedy Americathon is set in a future (1998) where the USA has run out of oil and the economy is near collapse.

Climate Change. Maclean's. Gas. ISBN 1-4116-0629-9. The Braking Point. CNN. Airways. Hot Air. you find more"" [175]. • Lovins Amory et al. Allianz Knowledge. Scientific American. "Of peaks and valleys: Doomsday energy scenarios burn away under scrutiny" [170] .J. "The new pessimism about petroleum resources" [179]. A Thousand Barrels a Second. Random House. • Williams Mark. "Last Stop Gas" [181]. Science. The Carbon War: Global Warming and the End of the Oil Era. ISBN 0-87113-888-3.). Hot Air and the Global Energy Crisis. N. The Empty Tank: Oil. • Didier Houssin. Princeton University Press. . Reimbold Jason (2008).Peak oil • Huber Peter (2005). ISBN 1-881071-10-3. • Campbell Colin. ISBN 1-4000-6527-5. "The end of cheap oil" [178]. Jeremy K (2005). New Society. Harper's Magazine: 71–72. "Oil: Never Cry Wolf—Why the Petroleum Age Is Far from over" [180]. Atlantic Monthly Press. and the Coming Financial Catastrophe. "WikiLeaks May Have Just Confirmed That Peak Oil Is Imminent" [186]. Rocky Mountain Institute. Gas. 18 Articles • Tinker Scott W (2005-06-25). • Roberts Paul (2004-08). • Lynch Michael C. Basic Books. Boston: Houghton Mifflin. Adam (2005-06-10). (2005). The Final Energy Crisis (2nd ed. Jobs and Security. BBC News. Laherrère Jean. • Newman Sheila (2008). Hawk Publishing. • Pfeiffer Dale Allen (2004). "Life at $200 a barrel" [185]. International Energy Agency (2008-05). ISBN 0-691-00381-5. • Stansberry Mark A. • Roberts Paul (2004). • Tertzakian Peter (2006). "Peak oil: "A significant period of discomfort"" [174]. Crossing the Rubicon: The Decline of the American Empire at the End of the Age of Oil. "Peak oil and the collapse of commercial aviation" [183] (PDF). • Cochrane Troy (2008-01-04). • Leggett Jeremy K (2001). The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of the Oil Age. Routledge. • Benner Katie (2004-11-03). The Bottomless Well. ISBN 978-0-7453-2717-4. Allianz Knowledge. • "The future of oil" [173]. ISBN 0-07-146874-9. • Simon Julian L (1998). ISBN 9780618239771. ISBN 978-1-930709-67-6. "Oil: Is the end at hand?" [172]. • Alex Kuhlman (2006-06). ISBN 0-465-03116-1. Retrieved 2010-03-26. Hoboken. Pluto Press. OCLC 228370383. ISBN 0-471-73876-X. • Leggett. "Peak oil?: Oil supply and accumulation" [184]. Lulu Press. Technology Review (MIT). "Lawmakers: Will we run out of oil?" [171]. Dallas Morning News. • Leggett Jeremy K (2005). National Geographic. The End of the Oil Age. The End of Oil. • Ruppert Michael C (2005). • Ariel Schwartz (2011-02-09). • Benner Katie (2005-12-07). Cultural Shifts. ISBN 0415931029. "The end of cheap oil" [176]. McGraw-Hill. "Oil: "If you invest more. • Jaeon Kirby & Colin Campbell (2008-05-30). • Porter. • Leonardo Maugeri (2004-05-20). Portobello Books. On the Edge of a Perilous New World. Half Gone: Oil. • Robert Hirsch (2008-06). • Appenzeller Tim. and Other Converging Catastrophes. • Simmons Matthew R (2005). "The end of oil?" [177]. • Kunstler James H (2005). "'Peak oil' enters mainstream debate" [182]. Winning the Oil Endgame: Innovation for Profit. Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy. Foreign Policy. CNN. The Ultimate Resource. ISBN 1-8462-7004-9.: Wiley & Sons. Fast Company. ISBN 978-0865715400.

com/ news/ energy/ 2010/ 11/ 101109-peak-oil-iea-world-energy-outlook/ )". . Princeton University: Beyond Oil. Retrieved 2008-07-27. Retrieved 2007-12-20. Retrieved 2009-07-11. doe. Owen. Simon Snowden.enpol. Michael Lardelli. "Current Events . Retrieved 2008-08-25. "The Perfect Storm" (http:/ / www. [13] BP. [9] Nick A. May 2007. . . Long. uk/ 2/ hi/ business/ 5099400. doi:10. html). Crude Oil: The Supply Outlook (http:/ / www. Retrieved 2008-04-18. pdf) (PDF). Energy Policy.02. . Retrieved 2008-07-27. doi:10. princeton. 2007 International Energy Outlook. com/ money/ economy/ 2008-03-08-3190491488_x. doe.026. nl/ wp-content/ uploads/ 2006/ 09/ asponl_2005_report. David F. Mikael Höök. Schindler. gov/ pub/ oil_gas/ petroleum/ feature_articles/ 2004/ worldoilsupply/ oilsupply04.Peak oil 19 Documentary Films • • • • • • • The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream (2004) Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash (2006) The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil (2006) Crude Impact (2006) What a Way to Go: Life at the End of Empire (2007) PetroApocalypse Now? (2008) Collapse (2009) Notes [1] Hubbert. . [15] "Petroleum and other liquid fuels" (http:/ / www. United States Energy Information Administration. United States Bureau of Transportation Statistics. htm). eia. John H.004. com/ archives/ index. 22–27. Kristofer Jakobsson. gov/ emeu/ international/ oilconsumption. DOE/EIA-0384(2008). Texas: Shell Development Company. 2010 [11] " Has the World Already Passed “Peak Oil”? (http:/ / news. Kenneth S (2007-01-19). gov/ publications/ national_transportation_statistics/ html/ table_04_03. [8] Koppelaar. . USA Today. United States Energy Information Administration. uu. tsl. . [16] International Energy Outlook 2009 [17] (PDF) Annual Energy Review 2008 (http:/ / www. bbc.. [6] Cohen. nytimes. com/ liveassets/ bp_internet/ globalbp/ globalbp_uk_english/ reports_and_publications/ statistical_energy_review_2008/ STAGING/ local_assets/ downloads/ pdf/ statistical_review_of_world_energy_full_review_2008. . Division of Production. Peakoil Nederland. . com/ hubbert/ 1956/ 1956. archive. Marion King (June 1956). gov/ oiaf/ archive/ ieo07/ pdf/ oil. [19] Wood. [22] (PDF) BP Statistical Review of Energy (http:/ / www. eia. November 14. pp. [4] Deffeyes. American Petroleum Institute. Energy Policy 38 (8): 4743. edu/ hubbert/ current-events. pdf). [2] Brandt. Jorg (October 2007) (PDF). (2004-08-18). "The status of conventional world oil reserves—Hype or cause for concern?". November 9.enpol. Retrieved 2009-07-11. gov/ emeu/ aer/ pdf/ pages/ sec1_3. 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net/ node/ 347 http:/ / www. html http:/ / news. bbc. including 4 notable full length documentaries . and analysts • WhatIsPeakOil. html http:/ / dieoff. jsp?content=20080528_21002_21002 http:/ / www. net/ Lynch(Hubbert-Deffeyes).com/free/ww3/100303_eating_oil.com • Energy Bulletin (http://www. com/ ngm/ 0406/ feature5/ http:/ / www. pdf http:/ / culturalshifts.fromthewilderness.htm) An overview of peak oil. and mitigation strategies. com/ 1725372/ wikileaks-may-have-just-confirmed-the-existence-of-peak-oil 25 References External links • Association for the Study of Peak Oil International (http://www. com/ story/ cms.com/) . co.Peak oil [172] [173] [174] [175] [176] [177] [178] [179] [180] [181] [182] [183] [184] [185] [186] http:/ / money. cnn. com/ airways.energybulletin.net/) Peak Oil related articles • Global Oil Watch (http://www.com/ peakoil.html) FromTheWilderness.com/OilExport/)-Visual review of production and consumption trends for individual nations. htm http:/ / www.whatispeakoil. possible impacts.globaloilwatch.peakoil. asp http:/ / ngm. macleans.com (http://www. foreignpolicy. harpers. com/ 2004/ 11/ 02/ markets/ peak_oil/ http:/ / www.com/) . gasresources. com/ articles/ 05/ 02/ issue/ review_oil. Michael Mills • Energy Export Databrowser (http://mazamascience. com/ archives/ 205 http:/ / www.net/) • Eating Fossil Fuels (http://www. com/ en/ globalissues/ safety_security/ energy_security/ hirsch_peak_oil_production. php?story_id=3233 http:/ / knowledge. org/ LastStopGas. oil executives. nationalgeographic. by Dr. uk/ 1/ hi/ business/ 4077802. energybulletin.peakoilfordummies.concise quotes from renowned politicians. htm http:/ / www. ca/ business/ economy/ article. stm http:/ / www. allianz. allianz. data from the British Petroleum Statistical Review • Peak Oil For Dummies (http://www.com/) .Extensive peak oil library • Evolutionary psychology and peak oil: A Malthusian inspired "heads up" for humanity (http://drmillslmu. technologyreview. html http:/ / knowledge. com/ en/ globalissues/ safety_security/ energy_security/ iea_energy_houssin. fastcompany.A collection of 30 online videos related to Peak Oil. oildecline. org/ page140.

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