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By 2030, Global Demand for Electricity will be Enormous

More People x More Money x Higher Living Standards = Exponentially Higher Demand for Electricity

World Population is Increasing


3B 6B 8B 9B 1950 2007 2030 20501
2007: 83% of growth (2.5B of 3B) was in developing countries.3 2030: 95% of growth (60M people per year) will be in developing countries.3 2030: US will add 50M people, growing to 355M. India will add 320M, China 170M.4 2050: 1B in the developed world, 1.4B in China, 1.8B in India, 5.3B in developing world.2

35% of 2050 growth in China and India 60% of 2050 growth in rest of developing world.2

Energy Needs Double by 20305


If (1) Americum is one unit of energy:

as of 2007, we consume (2) Americums per year.


China will soon consume (1) then add another (1) India will soon consume (1) then add another (1) Asia will move to (1) Russia will move to (1)

By 2030, the world will consume (8) Americums


of energy per year.6
Each American consumes enough energy to sustain 100
people.7 1B people live a lifestyle comparable to US citizens. 2B are moving up, 3B are in poverty, and 3B will be born by 2050. Energy today meets the needs of 3B not 9B.

Electricity Needs Double by 20308


Developing world electricity needs will
more than double by 2030.
Households rise by 900M, 90% in developing world. Global demand for American-style electric appliances: air conditioners, lights, tv, dryers, computers, phones.

US Electricity needs will increase 35% by 2030.9


40M plug-in electric cars in the US by 203010

Supply Cannot Meet Demand


By 2050, the world will need 30TW of electric
power.11
The world generates 12TW now (4TW in US). 18TW are needed = 18,000 1GW nuclear power plants. (1,000GW = 1TW) Global Electricity production will be unable to meet exponential increases in demand.

By 2020, more than 350GW of new electricity will be needed in the U.S.12 Far higher by 2030.

Demand is an Exponential Product


Demand is more people multiplied by more money multiplied by higher living standards.

Billions of people with more money13 Billions of people improving their lives:
Electricity enables economy and government. Electricity enables technology and services. Electricity enables industry and education. Electricity powers computers, medicine, homes, businesses and communications.

How U.S. Generates Electricity:


50 Total Production (%) 40 30 20 10

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Coal

7%

3%

Oil

15%

Hydro

20%

2%

2007 U.S. Electricity Production by Source Fuel

All solutions to generate electricity especially under-developed alternatives will be needed.

Wood, Geo, Solar, Wind

50%

Although coal meets 50% of current needs, it probably will not meet 50% of our future needs.14

Prediction:

The Centralized Grid will be maxed-out. A Decentralized Grid will fill the demand.
Decentralized Grid: Everyone generates electricity. Everyone stores electricity. Everyone trades electricity. Enabled by new SmartGrid technology. Residential and commercial buildings generate electricity. Homes, vehicles and businesses store electricity. Micro-grid neighborhoods and new business models provide local electricity, closer to the consumer, with back-up from the main grid.

Prediction:

Decentralized Grid market will be enormous.15 Most electricity will NOT come from utilities.

Centralized grid will support fixed sites in

developed countries. Decentralized grid will support mobile platforms: vehicles and individual devices. Decentralized grid will support all sites in developing countries that lack an installed grid.16 In developing countries, decentralized electricity will surpass centralized grid.17,18
Just like ATMs, email, and cell phones already have.

Conclusion
More People x More Money x Higher Living
Standards = Exponentially Higher Demand for Electricity Centralized generation will not meet Demand New decentralized sources of Electricity will augment the Centralized Grid, especially to support new technologies. Electricity will compete on cost AND availability. Electricity Sources, Products and Services will be enormous.

By 2030, the New Market for Decentralized

Notes
1. 2. 3. 4. U.N. Populations Reference Bureau, referenced in The Joint Operating Environment, p12.

One

9B by 2050 U.N. Population Division Report, March 13, 2007, referenced in Hot, Flat, and Crowded, p28. Also U.S. Census Bureau, International Database: Total Midyear Population for the World: 19502050, www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/worldpop.html, referenced in Who Turned Out the Lights?, p30.

population will expand by 100 million people in the next 40 years. By 2050, the U.S. population will grow to 404 million (according to the UN) or 422 to 458 million (according to the U.S. Census). From Joel Kotkins The Next Hundred Million, excerpted in Ready Set Grow, Smithsonian, July/August 2010, p61. 5. Double, Triple, or Quadruple? Many estimates agree that energy demand will more than double, but do not agree as to when or how or how much. Royal Dutch Shell claims that Energy consumption will double from 2008 to 2050 Hot, Flat, and Crowded, p38. Worldwide [energy] consumption will double by 2030 Lighting the Way, InterAcademy Council Report, 2007, referenced in Hot, Flat, and Crowded, p72. By the 2030s, demand would be nearly 50% greater than today The Joint Operating Environment, p6. China and India may increase [energy] demand 5% per year between 2001 to 2020 (100% total), Philip K. Verleger, Jr. The International Economy, September 22, 2007, referenced in Hot, Flat, and Crowded, p38. ExxonMobil believes that improvements in efficiency will temper energy demand: By 2030, global energy demand will be35% higherWithout efficiency improvements, demand in 2030 could be about 95% higher and In China and India, energy use will rise by about 65 percent The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030, pp 1, 12, 36. (8) Americums Hot, Flat, and Crowded, p 56. This model suggests that world energy demand would quadruple.

95% of 2030 growth The Joint Operating Environment, p10. The U.S. will add 50M The Joint Operating Environment, p 1, p12. India, p12, China, p10. The U.S. by 2050 will be400M people100M more than live here today The Next Hundred Million. The U.S.

6.

Notes
7. 8.

Two

100 people Lighting the Way, InterAcademy Council Report, 2007, referenced in Hot, Flat, and Crowded, p72. 3B - not 9B suggests that energy demand would triple. Electricity Needs Double In the developing world, electricity demand doubles through 2030 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030, p23. Residential energy demand is tied closely to the total number of householdsThrough 2030number of households rising by 900 million, with nearly 90 percent of that growth occurring in non-OECD countries The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030, p14. By 2050, half of the buildings in the world will be in China. This infrastructure needs electricity for lights, air conditioners, TV, computers, and refrigerators. Every two weeks, China constructs 1GW of new electricity generation. U.S. electricity needs will increase 35% by 2030... Who Turned Out the Lights? p263. From 1988 to 1998, U.S. electricity demand rose by nearly 30%. The Smart Grid: An Introduction, p20.

9.

10. 40M electric cars by 2030 Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles. Googles Clean Energy 2030 plan estimates 90% of new car sales in 2030 (16.5 million) will be electric, representing 41% of the total cars on the road. These cars will increase electricity needs by 8%. A series of estimates in Electric Vehicles in the United States: A New Model with Forecasts to 2030, claims 63% of 2030 sales will be electric, comprising 24% of the US fleet, p15. This estimate rises to 86% of new vehicle sales if future gasoline prices rise precipitously, p2. Japan is committed that 50% of new car sales will be electric by 2020, p1. 11. 30 TW By 2050, the world will need30TW of electric power. The world uses12 TW of that now, with one third of that in the United States... Smart Grid of the Future: A National Test Bed. A similar estimate states that 2000 production is 13TW and 2050 production will be 26TW. Hot, Flat & Crowded, p214. 13TW is 13,000 nuclear reactors (at 1GW each). Human activityis consuming15TW (15,000 GW) of power Pathways to Innovation, p17. By 2030, electricity generationwill account for 40% of all energy demand The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030, p23.

Notes

Three

12. 350GW of new electricity By 2020 in the U.S., more than 350GW of new electricity will be needed. EIA Energy Outlook 2002, referenced in Grid 2030: A National Vision p4. Googles Clean Energy 2030 estimates that this number would 33% higher if not for reduced demand due to efficiencies. See also Note 5. for ExxonMobils estimate that 65% of potential needs will be solved by efficiency improvements. 13. Global income will increase faster than population. As the combines GDP of Europe, the U.S. and Canada doubles by 2050, the GDP of the rest of the world will grow by a factor of five. The global middle class capable of purchasing consumer products such as cars, appliances and electronics will by 1.2B in the developing world. This 1.2B class will be larger than the total populations of Europe, Japan and the U.S. combined. The main driver of global economic growth will be newly industrialized Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey. The New Population Bomb: The Four Megatrends That Will Change the World, by Jack A. Goldstone, Foreign Affairs, January/February 2010. 14. Coal meets 50%... Coal is available and inexpensive, but its use will likely be severely legislated by 2030. Hot, Flat, and Crowded, p289. The fully burdened cost of coal makes coal more expensive. Burning coal produces CO2, which in turn warms the earth and triggers rising sea-level, crop loss, drought, disease, and floods. Burning coal produces air pollution. Digging coal produces scarred landscapes and loss of plant and animal biodiversity. Clean energy isnt cheap, and cheap energy isnt clean. Who Turned Out the Lights? p295.

Notes

Four

15. Marketenormous The green economy is poised to be the mother of all markets, the economic opportunity of a lifetime. Lois Quam, Piper Jaffray Investments. Over the last 150 years the primary US energy source has shifted from wood to coal to oil. Oil powered vehicles and airplanes, while coal generated electricity. Natural Gas heated homes. By 2000, nuclear power and renewables are here, but oil is still number one. These energy changes have been discontinuous, not evolutionary. ExxonMobil predicts another discontinuous change: By 2030, 40% of the worlds electricity will be generated by nuclear and renewable fuels. and Wind, solar and biofuels will grow sharply through 2030, at nearly 10% per year. The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030, p23, 25. Wind and solar, in particular, have enormous potential. By 2050 solar power(could) supply 69 percent of U.S. electricityenough to supply 344 million plug-in hybrid vehicles. A Solar Grand Plan in Scientific American. The energy that mankind consumes in a year is being delivered every 90 minutes by the sun... 90,000TW of solar radiation reaches the Earths surface: that is 6000 times total human consumption Pathways to Innovation, p17. 16. 1.6B people a quarter of the world lack access to electricity. South Asia: 700M. Sub-Saharan Africa: 550M (75% of households). Who Turned Out the Lights? p3, 172, 248. ExxonMobil claims 90% of rural Africans lack electricity, quoting figures form the World Bank. The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030, p1. 17. Because an electrical grid requires a functioning government, decentralized off-grid solutions will rule in the Developing World. As evidenced of a failing government, South Africa imported 44,590 generators in the third quarter of 2007, compared to 790 generators in in the third quarter of 2003. Bloomberg, January 24, 2008.

Notes

Five

18. Every problem of the developing world is also an energy problem. Electricity can solve a huge number of problems in developing countries. Developing countries need electricity for government (phones, fax, computers, internet), medical clinics (refrigeration, computers, internet), travel and communications (phones, computers, internet), schools (lights, computers, internet), industry (phones, motors, computers), homes (lights, phones, refrigeration), news media (computers, internet, phones) and farms (pumps). Competition in the global economy needs electricity. Fighting poverty, AIDS/HIV, and providing clean water needs electricity. 19. Renewable solutions do NOT compete with utilities solely on cost. Average 2009 costs to generate electricity19 Coal .05 - .07 kWh Natural Gas .05 - .08 kWh Nuclear .07 - .09 kWh Wind .06 - .09 kWh Solar .12 - .18 kWh But note: Laptop battery 4.00 kWh AAA battery 1000.00 kWh (at $1.50 per battery)20, 21 Energy costs are not just source fuel costs, but also availability. We spend far more for the availability and portability of gasoline and batteries. The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030, p24. 20. AAA Battery Physics for Future Presidents: The Science Behind the Headlines.

Notes
1B people x 1 60W light bulb = 60,000 MW (or (120) 500MW coal powered electric plants) 1,000,000,000 (109) people x 60W = 60,000,000,000W = 60GW
1 kW 1 MW 1 GW 1 TW = = = = 1,000 1,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,000,000,000,000 103 106 109 1012 Watts Watts Watts Watts

Six

21. Units of Electricity. A kilowatt Hour (kWh) is a unit of energy: 1000 Watts expended over one hour. In ten hours, a 100W light bulb consumes 1 kWh

= = =

1000 kW 1000 MW = 1000 GW =

1,000,000 1,000,000

kW MW = 1,000,000,000 kW

Bibliography
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Hot, Flat, and Crowded: Why We Need a Green Revolution and How It Can Renew America. Thomas L. Friedman.

11. 12. 13. 13. 14.

New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2008. The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050. Joel Kotkin. New York: Penguin, 2010. Physics for Future Presidents: The Science Behind the Headlines. Richard A. Muller. New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2008. Grid 2030: A National Vision for Electricitys Second 100 Years. U.S. Department of Energy Office of Transmission and Distribution, July 2003. The Smart Grid: An Introduction, U.S. Department of Energy, 2009. The Joint Operating Environment: Challenges and Implications for the Future Joint Force. Norfolk, VA: United States Joint Forces Command, 2008. https://us.jfcom.mil/sites/j5/j59/default.aspx Smart Grid of the Future: A National Test Bed, Roger Anderson, Paul Chu, Ron Oligney, Rick Smalley. New York: Columbia University Earth Institute. The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030. ExxonMobil. www.exxonmobil.com Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles, National Research Council, PlugDivision on Engineering and Physical Sciences, Board on Energy and Environmental Studies, Committee on and Assessment of Resource Needs for Development of Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Technology and Potential Impacts of Hydrogen Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles, Michael P. Ramage, Chairman, et al. December 14, 2009. PlugElectric Vehicles in the United States: A New Model with Forecasts to 2030, Thomas A. Becker, Ikhlaq Sidhu, and Forecasts Burghardt Tenderich, University of California, Center for Entrepreneurship & Technology, 24 August 2009, Entrepreneurship www.cet.berkeley.edu Pathways to Innovation, ABB Review 4/2009. Clean Energy 2030: Googles Proposal for reducing U.S. dependence on fossil fuels, Jeffery Greenblatt, dependence www.google.org Plugging Into the Sun, George Johnson, National Geographic, September 2009, p28. A Solar Grand Plan, Ken Zweibel, James Mason and Vasilis Fthenakis, Scientific American, Jan 2008, p64. Fthenakis, www.SciAm.com