Realization of Nuclear Renaissance

--- Role of Industry --Atomexpo-2009, Moscow May 26, 2009 Takuya HATTORI President Japan Atomic Industrial Forum, Inc.

Content
1. Overview of World Energy Status 2. Energy Policy and Nuclear Power in Japan 3. Features of Nuclear Industry of Japan 4. Capability of Japanese Nuclear Industry 5. Conclusion

1-1. Increase of World Energy Demand

(Mtoe) 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2006 2015 2030

IEA World Energy Outlook 2008 (by Region)

17014 14121
1.20
36%

1.45

OECD(including Japan and Korea) Africa Latin America Middle East E.Europe and Former Soviet Republics Other Asian countries India China
If we consider 11,730 Mtoe of 2006 as 1.00, 14,121 of 2015, and 17,014 of 2030 are respectively 1.20 and 1.45.

11730
1.00
47% 5% 5% 5% 15% 7% 5% 21% 41% 5% 5% 7% 14% 7% 8% 23%
(Year)

5% 5% 4% 15% 7% 5% 16%

1-2. Increase of GHG Emission

50% reduction b 2050 is Common Goal IEA Work for the G8, 2008 Messages

1-3. How to cope with Energy Demand and Climate Change

a. Long term energy policy is essential for sustainable growth b. Sharing the common goal among major countries is important c. Nuclear power is clean, safe, affordable and reliable energy source d. Nuclear power will play the key role in confronting these challenges
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1-4. Nuclear Power for Reduction of GHG Emission

Contribution of Nuclear Power to Reducing CO2 Emission :
a. World-wide ---Emitted CO2 ---27 B-ton/yr - Generated Power by Nuclear---~2700 TWh/yr - Contribute to Reduce 2.4 B-ton/yr of CO2(9%) b. In Case of Japan ---Emitted CO2 --- 1.3 B-ton/yr - Generated Power by Nuclear---~300 TWh/yr - Contribute to Reduce 0.27 B-ton of CO2 /yr (20%)
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1-5. Forecast of New Nuclear Power Plant Construction

a. Energy demand increase by 2030 is 1.45 times of 2006 (WEO-2008) b. Nuclear power in the world : 439 units 390 GW~15% of total electricity supply c. To keep the current share in 2030, additional NPP capacity should be installed : 390 x (1.45 1) = 175 GW d. Considering Decommissioning, Power Up-rate, and Life Extension, it is estimated this figure will be ~350GW (350 units of 1000MW plant)
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1-6. Challenges for Realizing Nuclear Renaissance

Several Challenges to overcome are recognized for realization of the Nuclear Renaissance. a. Financial Support by the Government b. Reestablishing Supply Chain c. Keeping Licensing Schedule d. Securing high level of Human Resources e. Enhancing Project Management capability International Cooperation is crucial for these challenges.
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2-1. Energy Policy of Japan

Basic Concept of Energy Policy : Basic Law on Energy Policy (June 2002) - Simultaneous achievement of 3E is crucial for Sustainable Development *Energy Security : stable and reliable supply *Environmental Conservation : safe and clean source *Economic Growth : stable and competitive cost - Electric utility companies pursue the Best Mix to cope with 3E concept
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2-2. Nuclear Power Plant in Japan

As of May 2009

*53 commercial nuclear power plants (30 BWRs and 23 PWRs) are in operation. *3 plants(3.7GW) are under construction, 12 plants(16.6GW) are preparing for construction.

Tomari
A

Ohma
A Higashidori (Tohoku Electric)

Kashiwazaki Kariwa Shika Tsuruga A A Mihama Ohi Takahama Shimane Kaminoseki A A Genkai
A

AA A

A A Higashidori (Tokyo Electric)

Onagawa
A A Fukushima Daiichi

Fukushima Daini Tokai

A A Hamaoka

Namie/Odaka

Ikata
A Sendai

PWR In Operation 23 Units PWR Under Construction 1 Unit PWR Preparing for Construction 3 Units

BWR In Operation 30 Units BWR Under Construction 2 Unit BWR Preparing for Construction 9 Units

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2-3. Transition of Composition of

Electric Power Sources in Japan

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2-4. History of Construction of NPP in Japan

Japan has kept more than 40 years continuous Construction without interruption
NPP in operation (53) NPP in shutdown (3) Date of Construction start Date of Commercial Operation
SHIKA-2 HAMAOKA- 5 TO HOKU/HIGASHIDORI-1 ONAGAWA-3

Capacity (10MWe, Gross)

4500 4000 3500

Date of Construction start

Date of Commercial Operation

3000 2500 2000

1500 1000

500

TOKAI-1

KASHIWAZAKIKARIWA-7 KASHIWAZAKIKARIWA- 6 ONAGAWA-2 HAMAOKA- 4 SHIKA- 1 KASHIWAZAKIKARIWA-4 KASHIWAZAKIKARIWA- 3 OHI-4 OHI-3 IKATA- 3 GENKAI-4 GENKAI- 3 TOMARI-2 TOMARI- 1 SHIMANE-2 KASHIWAZAKIKARIWA-2 KASHIWAZAKIKARIWA-5 HAMAOKA-3 TSURUGA-2 SENDAI- 2 FUKUSHIMA II- 4 FUKUSHIMA II- 3 TAKAHAMA- 4 TAKAHAMA- 3 ONAGAWA- 1 FUKUSHIMA II-2 SENDAI-1 KASHIWAZAKIKARIWA-1 IKATA- 2 GENKAI- 2 FUKUSHIMA II- 1 HAMAOKA-2 TOKAI- 2 IKATA- 1 FUKUSHIMA I-6 O HI-2 O HI-1 FUKUSHIMA I- 4 MIHAMA- 3 FUKUSHIMA I-5 HAMAOKA- 1 GENKAI-1 TAKAHAMA- 2 FUKUSHIMA I-3 TAKAHAMA-1 SHIMANE- 1 FUKUSHIMA I- 2 MIHAMA-2 MIHAMA- 1 FUKUSHIMA I- 1 TSURUGA-1

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

1998.03 TOKAI-1 Shutdown

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3-1. Features of Nuclear Industry of Japan

Japan can provide a full service to capably design, manufacture and construct safe and high quality of NPP (both BWR and PWR) throughout the world.
- System, structure and component design - Fuel design and core management - Equipment and fuel manufacturing - Installation and commissioning - Seismic design in high seismicity area - Project management - Operation and maintenance support - Education and training of personnel

Kashiwazaki Kariwa NP Station Source: Home Page of TEPCO

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3-2. History of Nuclear Power Development in Japan

a. Import from Overseas (UK and USA) b. Technology Transfer through Licensee Agreement c. Establishment of Indigenous Design and Manufacturing Capability d. Accumulation of Construction and Operation and Maintenance Experience e. Improvement and Standardization Program f. Development of Generation III NPP g. Development of Next Generation NPP
1960s Technical Transfer 1980s 1970s Enhance Safety and Reliability, Less Occupational Exposure, Reduced RW, Enhanced Operability and Maneuverability, and Improved Economy Improvement & standardization Program by Japanese Government and Industries 1990s

Initial Troubles

Phase- Phase-
ABWR Improvement & localization - Reliability, Radiation. Maintenance

Localization Overcame Initial Troubles

Phase-
Development of Advanced Reactors APWR

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3-3. Composition of Nuclear Industry in Japan

a. 9 Electric Utility Companies b. 3 World Class Reactor Vendors c. 5 Major General Constructors d. Full Scope of Equipment Suppliers e. 6 Major Trading Companies

JAIF with 470 members

Utility
Database of Operation

Reactor Vendors: Hitachi GE, MHI, and Toshiba

Construction Work Company Engineering Company Trading Company

Manufacturer

Service Company
Technology Level and Competitive Power of the Industry attributes to Diversity and Depth 15

4-1. Project Management --- Japan Model --a. Assuring Industrial Safety, Quality, Schedule and Budget Control is the key element of the project b. To manage the project, cooperation among utility, vendors and constructors is most important factor c. To cooperate, even beyond a contract, between members, it is necessary to respect each other and share the common goal d. Interface management between members is key task e. Based on Just in Time Delivery of high quality component, and finally On Time and on Budget will be achieved
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4-2. Advanced Construction Method

a. Reducing field work to improve quality level b. Adoption of modular construction method with introduction of high capacity crane c. Application of automated welding machine d. All weather type construction method e. Hybrid concrete and steel structure

b.

d.

Membrane roof to cover open-air work site

Roof opens to transport heavy components

*650 ton Reactor Vessel, Piping, Valve were installed. Source : Home Page of Hitachi, Ltd.

* Source: Monthly Magazine of Kajima Corporation (1995)

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4-3. How to Control Project Cost

a. To control project cost, keeping project schedule is keen factor b. Minimize technical risk is important * Stability of regulation * Test before use principle * Fixing of detail design in early phase c. High quality component and just in time delivery is essential factor

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4-4. Interface Control

a. Full scope 3D CAD systems are introduced b. Necessary data to control interface among licensing, design, procurement, manufacturing and installation is also included c. Information Network System is established among headquarters, site office and related companies, and share the information on real time base. d. IC tag which contains QC data is mounted on the equipment surface e. 3D CAD system is used for virtual maintenance demonstration

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4-5. Supply Chain

Reestablishment of Supply Chain is a matter of urgent. Keeping proper pace of NPP construction seems effective for reestablishment of Supply Chain.
a. Quality of key parts directly affects safety of NPP. Therefore stability and reliability of product quality is essential. b. Important points are: - Operation by market mechanism - Plural number of supply sources
Ingot Making of 600 ton, the World Largest, at Muroran Plant of Japan Steel Works, Ltd. Source: Home Page of JSW

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4-6. High Quality

Basic element to attain high quality
a. Top management commitment b. Share the vision : communication c. Safety culture : questioning attitude d. Keeping transparency e. Continuous improvement : KAIZEN f. Benchmarking g. Lessons learned from failure h. Keeping clean circumstance
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For the Sustainable Future

International nuclear community should share the vision and cooperate for future development
a. Sustainable planet comes true only by realization of low carbon society b. Nuclear power will play the key role to reduce GHG emission c. Nuclear technology is the common property for humankind d. 3S is the basic principle for peaceful use of nuclear energy 3S - Nuclear Non-Proliferation/Safeguards - Nuclear Safety - Nuclear Security

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Conclusion
A. There is no silver bullet to realize low carbon society, but there is no solution without nuclear. B. To realize the Nuclear Renaissance, role of Nuclear Industry is crucial. C. Nuclear industry in Japan has kept high level of capability to construct NPP. D. Japan is ready to play an active role in realization of the Nuclear Renaissance. For this purpose, cooperation with mutual benefit in the long run, as expected to the Japan Russia Nuclear Cooperation Agreement concluded on May 13, should be expanded. E. 3S is the basic principle for peaceful nuclear development.
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Thank You for Your Attention!

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