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ENERGY USE

IN THE AUSTRALIAN
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
1986 2020

Published by the Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts
Commonwealth of Australia 2008
ISBN: 978-1-921298-14-1
This work is copyright. It may be reproduced in whole or part for study or training purposes, subject to the inclusion of an acknowledgement of the source
and no commercial usage or sale. Reproduction for purposes other than those listed above requires the written permission from the Department of the
Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts (DEWHA). Requests and enquiries concerning reproduction and rights should be addressed to:
The Communications Director
Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts
GPO Box 787
Canberra ACT 2601
This report was prepared by Energy Efficient Strategies for DEWHA. The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not
necessarily reflect those of the Australian Government or the Minister for the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts.
While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the contents of this publication are factually correct, the Commonwealth does not accept responsibility
for the accuracy or completeness of the contents, and shall not be liable for any loss or damage that may be occasioned directly or indirectly through the use
of, or reliance on, the contents of this publication.
Design: Giraffe Visual Communication Management
Main cover photo: Emma Cross
All other photos courtesy of www.yourhome.gov.au unless otherwise referenced.

ENERGY USE IN THE AUSTRALIAN RESIDENTIAL SECTOR


ii

Executive Summary

ix

Main findings 

ix

Trends by fuel type 

ix

Trends by end use 

ix

Trends in building shell efficiency 

Emerging trends 

Areas for further research 


1 Introduction

xii
2

1.1

Background 

1.2

Scope of work 

1.3

Project team and acknowledgements 

2 Project overview 

2.1

Project approach 

2.2

Modelling overview 

2.3

Appliance modelling methodology 

2.4

Tracking appliance end uses 

10

2.5

Housing stock modelling methodology 

11

2.6

Space conditioning load modelling methodology 

12

2.7

Areas identified for further research 

13

3 Key results and trend analysis 

20

3.1

Introduction 

20

3.2

The national perspective 

20

3.3

Breakdown by state 

30

3.4

Appliances 

40

3.5

Cooking 

40

3.6

Water heating 

40

3.7

Space conditioning 

40

4 Results by end use 

48

4.1

Overview 

48

4.2

Space cooling equipment 

48

4.3

Space heating equipment 

49

4.4

Water heating 

50

4.5

Cooking products 

51

4.6

Major appliances 

53

4.7

Information technology products 

55

4.8

Home entertainment equipment 

57

4.9

Other equipment 

62

CONTENTS
iii

5 Population and household estimates 

70

5.1

Overview of estimates 

70

5.2

Estimates used for this study 

70

6 Appliance modelling methodology 

74

6.1

Overview 

74

6.2

Attributes 

74

6.3

User interaction with products 

75

6.4

Climate and weather 

77

6.5

Ownership and stock ofappliances 

79

6.6

Input assumptions by product type 

82

7 Housing stock modelling methodology 

100

7.1

Overview 

100

7.2

Stock characteristics / categorisation 

101

7.3

Base year estimates 1986 

103

7.4

Model inputs (Post -1986) 

111

7.5

Adjustments to estimates of housing numbers 

118

7.6

Floor area estimates 

119

7.7

Division into climate zones 

124

8 Space conditioning load modelling methodology 

140

8.1

Overview 

140

8.2

Modelling tools 

140

8.3

Sample housing 

141

8.4

Occupancy profiling 

142

8.5

Zoning 

145

8.6

Thermostat operation 

149

8.7

Climate files 

152

8.8

Miscellaneous settings and assumptions 

155

9 Calibration of the stock model 

160

9.1

Process overview 

160

9.2

Overview of state total energy consumption top-down vs bottom-up 

161

10 Data sources and references 

164

10.1 Overview of data sources 

164

10.2 References 

165

ENERGY USE IN THE AUSTRALIAN RESIDENTIAL SECTOR


iv

Appendix A Comparison of EES model outputs against top-down data sources 

171

A.1 Overview 

171

A.2 Australia 

171

A.3 NSW and ACT 

174

A.4 Victoria 

177

A.5 Queensland 

179

A.6 South Australia 

179

A.7 Western Australia 

181

A.8 Tasmania 

181

A.9 Northern Territory 

183

Appendix B Air conditioner sub-model 

185

B.1 Overview 

185

B.2 Key air conditioner attributes 

185

Appendix C Refrigerator and freezer sub-model 

189

C.1 Overview 

189

C.2 Key refrigerator attributes that impact on energy consumption 

189

Appendix D Solar water heater performance attributes 

195

D.1 Overview 

195

D.2 Key solar water heater attributes 

196

List of Tables

201

List of Figures

206

CONTENTS
v

Appendices E H can be found on the CD inside the back Cover


Appendix E Model inputs - attributes

213

Appendix F Model inputs - ownership

255

Appendix G Model outputs

347

Appendix H Model inputs - Housing stock details 

371

All States

371

NSW

375

VIC

397

QLD

439

SA

441

WA

467

TAS

489

NT

511

ACT

533

Abbreviations General
ABARE

Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics

ABS

Australian Bureau of Statistics

AC

Air conditioner

AGA

Australian Gas Association

AGO

Australian Greenhouse Office

BOM

Bureau of Meteorology, Australia

CBA

Cost Benefit Analysis

DEWHA

Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts

E3

Equipment Energy Efficiency Committee

EES

Energy Efficient Strategies P/L

ERP

Estimated Resident Population

ESAA

Energy Supply Association of Australia

ETSA

Electricity Trust of South Australia

HIA

Housing Industry Association of Australia

MEPS

Minimum Energy Performance Standards

NAEEEC

National Appliance and Equipment Energy Efficiency Committee (now E3)

NatHERS

Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme

NEMMCO

National Electricity Market Management Company

NGGI

National Greenhouse Gas Inventory

NIEIR

National Institute For Economic and Industrial Research

RIS

Regulatory Impact Study

SEAV

Sustainable Energy Authority of Victoria formerly EEV (now Sustainability Victoria)

ENERGY USE IN THE AUSTRALIAN RESIDENTIAL SECTOR


vi

TMY

Typical Meteorological Year

REC

Renewable Energy Certificate

ORER

Office of Renewable Energy Regulator

Abbreviations Charts
The following abbreviations are used in this report to include a range of appliance types
Electrical Equipment
CD

Clothes dryers (rotary electric)

CFLs

Compact Fluorescent lights

CW front

Clothes washers front loading (drum) (horizontal axis)

CW top

Clothes washers top loading (agitator and impeller) (vertical axis)

DVD

DVD (includes players and recorders, some with hard disk)

DW

Dishwashers

FZ

Freezers (separate composite includes vertical and chest types)

Games

Games consoles

Home ent.

Home entertainment other (mostly other audio equipment)

Kettles

Electric kettles (jugs) to boil water

Laptops

Computers laptop

Lighting

Lighting (composite total lighting end use for the whole house)

Microwave

Microwaves (separate) (conventional and convection combination)

Misc. ITS

Miscellaneous IT equipment switched (printers, speakers)

Misc. ITU

Miscellaneous IT equipment un-switched (other IT items)

Miscell.

Other electricity (small miscellaneous loads, some secondary heating)

Monitors

Monitors (used with desktop computers) (CRT and LCD type)

Other Sby

Other standby (other products not already explicitly covered)

PC

Computers desktop (box only)

Pools

Swimming pools electricity / gas (includes pumps and heating)

RF

Refrigerators (composite includes single door refrigerator-freezers)

Spas

Spas electricity / gas (includes pumps and heating)

STB FTA

Set Top Box free to air digital (simple converter boxes or DTAS)

STB PAY

Set Top Box subscription (pay TV cable, microwave or satellite)

TV

Television composite of CRT, LCD, Plasma and Projection technologies

VCR

Video Cassette Recorder (VCR) (includes combo DVD players)

Cooking Equipment (all items may be separate or part of a range)


Cook El

Cooking electric cook-top

Cook gas

Cooking mains gas cook-top

Cook LPG

Cooking LPG cook-top

Oven El

Cooking electric oven (separate or part of a range)

Oven gas

Cooking mains gas oven (separate or part of a range)

Oven LPG

Cooking LPG oven (separate or part of a range)

CONTENTS
vii

Water Heating Equipment


Electric

Electric storage

Gas Inst

Gas instantaneous (mains gas) (no storage)

Gas Stor

Gas storage (mains gas)

LPG Inst

Gas instantaneous (LPG)

LPG Stor

Gas storage (LPG)

Solar El A

Solar electric (flat plate thermal) solar contribution

Solar El B

Solar electric (flat plate thermal) external boost fuel

Solar GI A

Solar gas in line instantaneous boost solar contribution

Solar GI B

Solar gas in line instantaneous boost external boost fuel

Solar GS A

Solar gas in tank boost solar contribution

Solar GS B

Solar gas in tank boost external boost fuel

Solar HP A

Heat pump solar contribution

Solar HP B

Heat pump external fuel

Space Conditioning Equipment


DuctC

Cooling AC ducted (composite cooling only and reverse cycle types)

Ductgas

Heating mains gas ducted

DuctRCH

Heating AC reverse-cycle ducted

El Resist

Heating electric resistive (mostly portable units run from GPOs)

Evap

Cooling evaporative (mostly central)

RCOC

Cooling AC cooling only non-ducted (split and window wall)

Room Gas

Heating mains gas non-ducted (room heater)

RoomLPG

Heating LPG gas non-ducted (room heater)

RRCC

Cooling AC reverse non-ducted (composite split and window wall)

RRCH

Heating AC reverse-cycle non-ducted

Wood C

Heating wood closed combustion

Wood O

Heating wood open combustion

Note: Mains gas is reticulated natural gas (mostly methane) in most cases.

ENERGY USE IN THE AUSTRALIAN RESIDENTIAL SECTOR


viii

Executive Summary
Climate change is recognised as one of the greatest
challenges facing Australia, and the world today. The
consumption of energy in the residential sector is a significant
contributor to Australias stationary energy greenhouse gas
emissions. It is therefore imperative that detailed and accurate
quantification of energy consumption is used as a basis for the
development of climate change response strategies.
Commissioned by the Australian Government, Energy
Use in the Australian Residential Sector: 1986-2020 is
the second national baseline study on residential energy
use. The first study was published in 1999 and provided a
quantitative foundation for the development of greenhouse
response measures. The reports were produced on behalf
of the Australian Government by energy planning and policy
consultants Energy Efficient Strategies Pty Ltd (EES).
The study includes private residential dwellings, both those
that are separate, such as single detached family homes,
or attached, such as townhouses and apartments. Energy
consumption estimates were made assuming a basecase scenario or Business as Usual (BAU). This scenario
incorporates the impact of Australian energy policy programs
in place or finalised by mid 2007.
For the project, the consultants developed a bottom-up enduse model that tracked energy consumption at a state level
from 1986 to 2005 with projections to 2020. This end-use
model includes complex stock models of each major end-use,
covering ownership, technical attributes and usage patterns.
The model separately tracked four main categories of end
use; space conditioning, water heaters, cooking products and
appliances. In addition, the four main fuel types of electricity,
mains (natural) gas, LPG and wood were also tracked.
The energy contribution of solar water heating to total water
heating energy requirements is explicitly estimated in this
study. In all, nearly 60 different end-use and fuel combinations
were separately modelled for each state and territory.

Main findings
Between 1990 and 2020 the number of occupied residential
households is forecast to increase from six million to almost
10 million, an increase of 61%. Over the same period, total
residential floor area is set to rise from 685 million square
metres to almost 1682 million square metres, an increase
of145%.
The study estimated that the residential sector energy
consumption in 1990 was about 299 petajoules (PJ)
(electricity, gas, LPG and wood) and that by 2008 this had
grown to about 402 PJ and is projected to increase to 467
PJ by 2020 under the current trends. This represents a
56% increase in residential sector energy consumption over

the period 1990 to 2020. This increase coincides with a


continuing trend towards an increased proportion of the total
residential energy demand being met by electricity (which
currently has a high greenhouse gas intensity) and a decrease
in the use of wood (with a low greenhouse gas intensity).
Although this study does not calculate the greenhouse
emissions, it is likely that this predicted growth in energy use
in the residential sector will result in a significant growth in
greenhouse gas emissions.
Since 1990 the average energy consumption per Australian
household has remained relatively constant apart from the
influence of year-to-year climatic and weather variations
that impact significantly on space conditioning energy
demand. Projecting forward to 2020 there is expected to be
about a 6% decline in energy consumption per household
compared to 1990 levels. This decline is achieved despite
expected increases in service delivery to households,
particularly in terms of increases in the average size of
houses and the types of space conditioning equipment
and in a diverse range of appliance types, such as larger,
more power-intensive televisions and an increase in standby
energy consumption, lighting, computers and other home
entertainment. The decline in energy consumption per
household is primarily being driven by existing and planned
energy programs designed to improve energy efficiency of
appliances and the building shell.
The trend in per person residential energy consumption
shows a steady but modest increase from 17 gigajoules
(GJ) per person in 1990 to 20 GJ per person in 2020, or
approximately a 20% increase over the study period. This
increase in energy consumption per person is partly being
driven by a decline in the number of persons per household,
as there are some forms of fixed energy consumption that are
associated with each household.

Trends by fuel type


The contribution of electricity to total residential energy
consumption is predicted to increase from 46% in 1990 to
53% in 2020. Natural gas consumption is also expected
to increase from 30% of total energy consumption in 1990
to 37% in 2020, while wood is predicted to decease from
21% to only 8% over the same period. LPG use will remain
relatively unchanged and is expected to contribute to 2% of
energy use in 2020.

Trends by end use


Growth in electrical appliance energy consumption was
the largest among major end-uses and was estimated to
increase from 70.5 PJ in 1990 to 169.4 PJ in 2020, which
represents an increase of 4.7% per annum. By 2020 energy
use by electrical appliances is forecast to almost match
space heating as the largest single energy end use in the
average Australian household. Energy demand for space

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
ix

heating is forecast to continue to rise from 126.2 PJ in 1990


to 173.9 PJ in 2020, but at a slower rate in comparison to
appliances (1.3% average growth per annum, 1990 to 2020).
Water heating is the only major energy use predicted to
decline over the study period, principally as a result of
various energy programs undertaken by Commonwealth
and State/Territory Governments. After plateauing in 2002
at 92.4 PJ water heating energy use is expected to decline
slowly to 83.5 PJ by 2020. The key drivers for changes in
water heating energy are an increase in the share of gas and
solar technologies with a corresponding decrease in electric
storage hot water together with some additional impact
from electric water heater mininmum energy performance
standards (MEPS) in 1999. The gradually declining demand
for hot water has also resulted from an increase in waterefficient appliances such as front-loading washing machines
and low-flow shower heads combined with a decline in the
number of people per household.
Of all the major end uses, space cooling is forecast to show
the most rapid growth over the study period with an average
growth of 16.1% per annum. This growth comes off a very
low energy base of 3 PJ in 1990, so even with this high rate
of growth, in total energy terms, by 2020 energy consumption
for space cooling is only 17.7 PJ, or 4% of total residential
energy consumption in that year. However, despite its low
contribution to total energy consumption, space cooling is an
end use that attracts considerable political and policy attention
due to its very poor load factor and the potential to create
major problems for the electricity generation, transmission and
distribution systems on peak summer days.

Trends in building shell


efficiency
Analysis of the building approval data has revealed that the
average size of new dwellings is increasing rapidly. From
1986 to 2020 the total floor area of residential dwellings
is expected to increase by 280% while the number of
households is only projected to increase by 177% over the
same period.
The national trend for building shell energy efficiency (ie total
potential space conditioning load per square metre of floor
area), shows a modest but steady improvement over the
study period, down from 280 megajoules (MJ) per square
metre (m2) to approximately 200 MJ/m2. This improvement is
being driven by policy initiatives that commenced in Victoria
and the ACT in the 1990s and by 2005 had expanded to
include all states through the Building Code of Australia
(BCA). Unfortunately, the improvement in building shell
efficiency over the study period has been outpaced by the
rate of increase in average floor area. This has occurred
to the extent that the potential space conditioning load is
estimated to have increased from about 30 GJ to 35 GJ per
household per annum from 1986 to 2005.

Emerging trends
Space conditioning
Energy demand for heating and cooling is projected to
increase despite the introduction of minimum building shell
performance standards in all jurisdictions. The main factors
driving this trend are:
The floor area of the average new dwelling continues to
significantly exceed that of the stock average, thereby
driving up the average floor area of the stock of dwellings
as a whole over time. In addition, householders continue to
undertake renovations that increase the floor area of their
existing dwellings, particularly the older detacheddwellings.
Average floor areas are increasing despite declining
average household sizes, so the floor area per occupant is
increasing even faster.
The share of dwellings with whole-house heating systems,
particularly gas heating, is projected to rise significantly
over the remainder of the study period, especially in the
states with colder climates.
The share of dwellings with space cooling installed is
projected to continue to rise significantly over the remainder
of the study period the penetration of air conditioners
has more than doubled in the past 10 years to about 65%.
While the energy consumption for cooling is still relatively
modest, this is projected to increase by a factor of five from
1990 to 2020 under current trends.
The recently introduced building shell performance
standards in most states only affect approximately 2%
of the total stock per annum and in reality provide only a
modest level of improvement compared to the BAU case
in terms of total energy consumption projections to 2020.
Nonetheless, stringent building shell standards for new
dwellings will have significant long-term energy impacts,
which will continue to accrue beyond 2020. New housing
built now with poor building shell efficiency will be a large
long-term liability for future generations.
The study also found some evidence to suggest that
emerging trends in the climate have been subtly limiting
the growth in heating loads and accelerating the growth in
cooling loads in all parts of Australia except the tropical north.

Water heating
In 1990 water heater usage accounted for approximately
84 PJ, this is estimated to have peaked at approximately
92 PJ in 2002 but is projected to slowly decline to 84 PJ by
2020, despite an increase in household numbers. The most
significant trend over the study period for water heater energy
use is the shift away from resistive electric heating (primarily
storage systems) towards natural gas or combinations of
solar with gas or electric boosting.
Increased natural gas use has coincided with the expansion
of the natural gas network, which is growing steadily, but

ENERGY USE IN THE AUSTRALIAN RESIDENTIAL SECTOR


x

still only covers 46% of Australian households (in 2005).


Instantaneous gas units have also gained favour because of
their compact size and their capacity to provide a continuous
flow of hot water. Solar water heating systems have also
gained popularity over recent years (although the installed
base was relatively small up to 2003 with a national average
of about 4%). This increasing trend is being driven largely by
initiatives at the state level. Some of these schemes are also
boosting the stock of heat pump solar water heaters, which
may become more significant over time as the capital costs
are likely to fall.
The application of MEPS, existing and emerging state and
BCA requirements mandating the use of lower greenhouse
intensive technologies (GWA 2007), and the various incentive
schemes designed to encourage greater use of solar and
heat pump technologies all combine to result in an overall
downward trend in total energy consumption for water
heaters from 2002 to 2020.

Refrigerators and freezers


Refrigerator and freezer energy use grew slowly at the start
of the study period but has been in decline since 2004. In
1986 refrigerators and freezers usage combined accounted
for approximately 26 PJ and by 2020 this is projected to
have decreased to approximately 24 PJ. This decrease
is predicted to occur despite an increase in total stock
(refrigerators and freezers) from approximately 10 million
units in 1986 to an estimated 17 million units by 2020
(70%increase).
Since the early 1990s the average energy consumption of
new refrigerators and freezers has improved significantly,
with a 40% reduction from 1993 to 2006 (EES 2006). These
improvements have been driven by both the energy labelling
program and by the introduction of MEPS requirements in
1999 followed by more stringent levels in 2005. The 2005
MEPS levels will continue to place downward pressure on
energy growth for these products over the study period.

IT equipment
Energy use of personal computers, laptops, monitors and
miscellaneous Information Technology (IT) equipment has
been growing rapidly since the start of the study period. In
1986, energy use of IT equipment was negligible; this was
estimated to have increased to nearly 8 PJ by 2005 and is
projected to continue to rise to almost 15 PJ by 2020.

The main drivers for the increase in energy consumption


havebeen:
An increase in the total number of households.
A rapid increase in ownership of personal computers,
laptops and related equipment over the study period. Since
1986 ownership of personal computers has risen from
virtually zero to 0.87 per household by 2005. Ownership
is projected to rise to nominally 1.25 per household for
personal computers and 0.65 for laptops by 2020.
For personal computers, on-mode power consumption has
virtually doubled from approximately 50 watts to more than
100 watts at present.
Hours of use have almost doubled since the early 1990s
from approximately 500 hours per annum to more than 900
hours per annum. This is projected to continue to rise to
approximately 1200 hours per annum by 2020. There is a
large potential for energy management of these products to
reduce energy consumption.

Entertainment (games, set-top boxes


andtelevisions)
Games consoles, set-top boxes and television (TV) energy use
have been growing significantly in recent years. In particular,
television energy use has been growing steadily since the start
of the study period but is now projected to grow more rapidly
over the remainder of the study period. In 1986 TV usage
accounted for approximately 3 PJ and in 2005 was estimated
to have increased to approximately 12 PJ and is projected to
exceed 45 PJ by 2020 (without the introduction of MEPS and
energy labelling.
The main drivers for the projected rapid increase in energy
consumption are as follows:
The average number of televisions per household is
projected to increase from approximately 1.5 in 1986 to a
projected 2.1 by 2020. One in four households now buys
a new television each year. Most secondary televisions are
used intensively.
Hours of operation (which are higher than actual viewing
hours) have been rising steadily over the study period from
approximately 1500 per annum in 1986 to a projected
2800 hours by 2020 per TV.
Newer technologies such as plasma and LCD have been
driving a trend towards a very rapid increase in average
screen size. This trend has resulted in a rapid rise in energy
consumption from an average on-mode consumption
of approximately 65 W in 1986 to 100 W in 2005 and
continuing to grow to an estimated 230 W by 2020.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
xi

Lighting
Lighting energy use had shown steady and relatively strong
growth since the start of the study period but is expected to
decline from 2010 to 2015 then begin to rise again for the
remainder of the study period. In 1986 lighting energy usage
was approximately 13 PJ and by 2005 this is estimated to
have increased to nearly 25 PJ with a peak of just over 27 PJ
in 2010. Following a dip in energy consumption post-2010,
consumption is projected to rise again to approximately 25
PJ by 2020.
Apart from the growth in the number of households and
the increase in floor areas of those households, the main
drivers influencing the general upward trend in lighting energy
consumption are:
Since the early 1990s there has been a strong growth
in the use of quartz halogen (QH) low voltage lighting.
This change in technology is greatly increasing energy
consumption. Their relatively low efficiency (only marginally
better than incandescent types) and high installation
density means that energy consumption for these types
has been rising rapidly.
Compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) have been slowly
gaining market share since their introduction in the late
1980s. The penetration of this relatively efficient technology
(approximately 50-65 lumens/watt) is expected to increase
rapidly with the announced phase out of incandescent
lamps in 2009. This is expected to drive lighting energy
consumption downwards for the following five years.
By 2015 it is expected that practically all standard
incandescent lamps will have been removed from the stock
and largely replaced by CFLs. Beyond 2015, increases
in household numbers and the expected continuing
popularity of QH lamps are projected to drive energy
consumption upwards again.

Areas for further research


The study identified a paucity of end-use data for residential
energy use in Australia, particularly in regional areas. Some
of the appliance energy consumption estimates used in this
study rely on research that is 15 years old or, alternatively, on
work undertaken in New Zealand.

homes and their hours of operation. Emerging trends need


to be better understood.
Refrigerators and Freezers research is required into the
relationship between measured energy consumption (in
accordance with AS/NZS 4474.1) and actual consumption
during normal use, particularly under various ambient
(climatic) conditions.
Clothes washers better information on the frequency of
use of clothes washers, whether users under-load their
machines, wash temperatures and connection modes for
this appliance type is required.
Ducted losses research is needed to establish the
performance of the ducting in ducted gas and air
conditioning systems and the rate of losses from
suchsystems.
Evaporative coolers while evaporative cooling systems
can provide a low energy method of cooling, they can
consume significant quantities of water. A technical review
of their performance and suitability in a range of climates
should be undertaken.
Hot water use more data is needed on the actual
use of hot water in households. It is known that there
is a wide distribution of hot water consumption profiles
across households, but the factors that drive this are
poorlydocumented.
Home electronics better data on the number, type and
usage patterns of home electronics including televisions,
gaming consoles, computers and their peripherals is
urgently needed. Energy use of televisions is set to become
one of the most significant end uses in the residential
sector over the next 10 years.
High-rise housing there is a need to improve data
collection for high-rise and medium-density housing which
use large amounts of energy for central services and
communal areas.
Unoccupied homes equate to about 10% of Australian
homes. Energy use in these dwellings is not well
understood and requires further research.

Further research is recommended in a number of


areas,including:
What drives particular user behaviour there is wide
variation in energy use patterns within households.
Future trends in new appliances a program that identifies
emerging products and evaluates their potential energy
implications.
Trends in appliance lifetimes this is a significant factor that
influences the replacement rate and stock level.
Lighting more work needs to be undertaken to collect
data related to lighting types installed in new and existing

ENERGY USE IN THE AUSTRALIAN RESIDENTIAL SECTOR


xii

Source: Sustainable Pty Ltd

SECTION 1

INTRODUCTION

1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
This project has been commissioned by the Department of
the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts (DEHWA) to
determine baseline energy consumption estimates attributable
to the residential sector of the economy and to provide a firm,
quantitative basis for the subsequent development of specific
greenhouse response measures by industry and the Australian
Government. This study was prepared by Energy Efficient
Strategies. The first baseline study was produced in 1999 for
the Australian Greenhouse Office (AGO) by Energy Efficient
Strategies (EES 1999). The first baseline study was produced
in 1999 for the Australian Greenhouse Office (AGO) by Energy
Efficient Strategies (EES1999).
This study estimates energy consumption in the residential
sector over the period 1986 to 2020. The study examines
all major stationary energy end uses (including electrical
appliances and equipment, water heating and cooking) and
fuel types in the residential sector. There is particular attention
given to space heating and cooling in residential buildings:
the interaction of the thermal performance of the building
shell, heating and cooling regimes and the product type,
fuel mix and energy efficiency of space heating and cooling
equipment together with climate data. Fuels covered include
electricity, mains gas (reticulated natural gas which is primarily
methane), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) (primarily propane)
and wood for space heating. The energy contribution of
solar water heating to total energy requirements is also
explicitly estimated. Fuels not covered by this study include
black coal, coke, brown coal briquettes, kerosene, heating
oil, automotive diesel oil (ADO) or industrial diesel fuel
(IDF). According to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural
and Resource Economics (ABARE) (2007), in 2006 coal
accounted for 0.1 PJ, briquettes 0.1 PJ and ADO 1.3
petajoules (PJ) while the other fuels were negligible. Wood for
cooking and hot water has not been estimated, but these are
considered to be small. Petroleum or ADO for mobile engines
such as lawn mowers are not separately listed under the
residential sector by ABARE and were not estimated in this
study. Energy consumption of vehicles was also not covered.
The structure of this report is as follows:
Section 2 Project overview
Section 3 Key results and trend analysis
Section 4 Results by end use
Section 5 Population and household estimates
Section 6 Appliance modelling methodology
Section 7 Housing stock modelling methodology
Section 8 Space conditioning load modelling methodology
Section 9 Calibration of the stock model
Section 10 Data sources and references
Appendices A D.

INTRODUCTION
2

Detailed tables of assumed input data as well as energy


output tables for all states and years are available in
Appendices E to H, which are available on the CD.

1.2 Scope of work


As set out in the project proposal, this study is an update
of the 1999 study and covers energy consumption from
the following building classifications of the Building Code of
Australia (BCA):
Class 1a (i) detached houses.
Class 1a (ii) attached dwellings (including town houses,
terrace houses and villas).
Class 2 buildings containing two or more sole occupancy
units (flats).
These building types constitute the vast majority of residential
building types in Australia.
The following dwellings (sometimes also called residential
buildings) as defined under the BCA are not covered by
thisstudy:
Class 3a boarding houses, guest houses and hostels.
Class 3b residential parts of motels or hotels.
Class 3c residential parts of schools or education
institutions.
Class 3d accommodation for the aged or disabled.
Class 3e staff accommodation in health care buildings
(eghospitals).
Class 3f residential parts of a detention centre.
Class 4 dwellings in a non-residential building.
Many of these dwelling types are generally classified as
non-private households under the Australian Census and
are categorised as part of the commercial sector. These
types of dwellings present areas of potential confusion
between the residential and commercial sector, as energy
bills for these (as well as long-term residences in caravan
parks) are typically paid by commercial entities. Some of
these areas such as aged accommodation are areas of
emerging significance, as our society ages. While their total
energy consumption is likely to be relatively small overall,
special studies would be required to better understand these
specialised types ofresidences.
At any one time, about 10% of residential dwellings are
unoccupied (either between residents, between rental tenants
or holiday/second homes) while these may use some
energy where they remain connected to an energy supply,
this has not been quantified explicitly in this study. There is
little or no data on the occupancy or energy consumption of
these dwellings.
Unlike the 1999 baseline study, greenhouse gas emissions
were not estimated as part of this report. Greenhouse gas

emission estimates have been undertaken as part of the


cross-sector analysis in the publication Australias National
Greenhouse Gas Inventory (GWA 2008) using the end-use
energy estimates provided by this report.

Tony Rowe, Department of Justice and


Infrastructure,Tasmania

Energy embodied in construction materials and emissions


associated with the construction or demolition process are
not covered in this study.

John Kennedy Australian Building Codes Board

Bruce Harding Department of Planning and


Infrastructure,NT
Simon Tennant Housing Industry Association
Mr Steve Beletich, SBA
John Todd, University of Tasmania

1.3 Project team and


acknowledgements
This report was prepared by Lloyd Harrington and Robert
Foster of Energy Efficient Strategies (EES) with assistance
from George Wilkenfeld and Associates (NSW). Data analysis
and modelling assistance was provided by Jack Brown and
Robert Harrington of EES. Formatting and editing assistance
was provided by Dianne Glass of EES.
Specific in-depth analysis for modelled water heater
performance was commissioned by Graham Morrison
(Thermal Design, NSW). The Australian Bureau of Statistics
was commissioned to provide detailed information on
housing construction data and also private appliance
ownership cross tabulations at a state level from ABS4602.
The authors would also like to thank the contributions
made by the following reviewers of the draft report for their
constructive and insightful comments:

Chris Carson Archicert


Notwithstanding the many individuals and organisations
that have assisted during this project, the content and
form of this report, and all of the views, conclusions and
recommendations expressed therein, are those of EES and
not those of DEWHA or any otherorganisation.
While the authors have taken every care to accurately
report and analyse the data, the authors are not responsible
for the source data, nor for any use or misuse of data or
information provided in this report and nor for any loss arising
from the use of this data. While we have used the most
comprehensive data available to develop our estimates,
some data gaps do exist and these present limitations
regarding the accuracy of some of the estimates presented in
this report.

Alan Pears, Sustainable Solutions


Ian McNicol, Sustainability Victoria
Monica Oliphant, University of South Australia
Hugh Saddler, Energy Strategies
George Wilkenfeld, GWA
Tony Marker and Tim Farrell (DEWHA)
A number of organisations were contacted during
the project and their cooperation and assistance is
gratefullyacknowledged.
We would also like to thank staff of:
ABARE
The Australian Bureau of Statistics
Energy SA
Tony Isaacs
Jim Woolcock
Angelo Delsante, CSIRO
Graham Morrison, Thermal Design
Robert Smith, Energy Australia
Anne Armansin, Origin Energy
Jason Veale, NSW Department of Infrastructure
Rob Enker, Building Control Commission, Victoria
David Mills, Department of Planning, Queensland

SECTION 1
3

SECTION 2

PROJECT OVERVIEW

2 Project overview
2.1 Project approach
This study presents the results of a bottom-up end-use
energy model that has been developed for the residential
sector in Australia. The end-use model was developed using
a very wide range of data sources and provides estimates at
a state level for all major energy sources. The end-use model
takes the following factors into account when estimating
energy consumption by end use:
Number and the average size of households over time.
Number of each appliance type per household over time.
Key characteristics of new appliances entering the market
each year, plus average appliance life and associated
retirements which are used to give a stock average value in
each year.
Data on usage patterns and other aspects of user
behaviour and interaction that impact on energy
consumption of appliances.
Impact of climate on space heating and cooling
requirements (all households were divided into one of 10
national climate zones).
Information on new house construction at a state level
(materials, size etc).
Interactions of climate on water heater energy (including
hot-water requirements, cold-water temperatures and
performance of solar systems).
In total, approximately 60 different end-use and fuel
combinations were separately modelled using this approach.
Data was synthesised by means of an end-use model to
estimate energy consumption from 1986 to 2020 under
a base-case scenario (Business as Usual with existing
energy program measures). The BAU scenario (also called
baseline estimates in this report) incorporates the impact
of energy policy programs that were in place or finalised by
mid 2007. The programs that are included (or not included)
by end-use are documented in the section on Appliance
Modelling Methodology (Section 6). As far as possible,
estimates for each end use were compared and verified
against known third-party sources. As an overall check, total
energy consumption estimates by fuel at a state level were
compared to top-down data sources such as Australian
Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE),
Australian Gas Association (AGA) and Energy Supply
Association of Australia (ESAA). Some private utility data was
also used for internal checking. While these comparisons
were mostly satisfactory, there were some discrepancies,
particularly since 2001, that cannot be explained in terms
of known trends in household appliance ownership (refer
toSection 9).

PROJECT OVERVIEW
6

2.2 Modelling overview


The end-use or bottom-up model is based on a stock model
(Figure 1) which takes into account the average technical
characteristics of both new appliances and buildings entering
the stock and old ones leaving the stock to provide a stockweighted average for each year during the modelling period.
The main inputs into the appliance end-use model are:
Appliance attributes these are typically capacity or other
attributes that affect energy consumption, including energy
efficiency. Average attributes of new products by year that
flow into the stock are estimated from 1966 to 2020. These
were estimated from a wide range of sources, including
energy labelling registration data, store measurements and
other surveys (especially for standby attributes). See Section
6 and Appendix E for attributes by product and year.
Ownership this is data on the presence of the total
number of products that consume energy in households.
Note that penetration (percent of households with one or
more of the nominated appliance) and/or ownership (which
is average stock per household) were both estimated
where relevant. The ownership of some products varies
considerably by state (eg space heating and cooling
equipment, which are dependent on climate and availability
of fuels) whereas other products are fairly uniform across
all states (eg home entertainment equipment, refrigerators,
but not freezers). Data from 1966 to 2020 is estimated
at a state level, which in turn is used to estimate stock
in each year. The main data sources were ABS surveys
of household appliance ownership (ABS4602 as well as
earlier ABS surveys) but other key sources were also used
such BIS Shrapnel appliance market reports (BIS 2006)
and The Sustainable Home survey for home entertainment
and office equipment (Connection Research 2007) as well
as various surveys commissioned by DEWHA (EES 2001,
EES 2006a). See Section 6 and Appendix F for ownership
by product, year and state.
Determination of appliance usage parameters (eg
frequency and duration of use, climate impacts,
temperature settings for washers etc) with projections
to 2020. Note that usage parameters are applied to the
installed stock for the relevant year (eg hours that people
watch a TV in 2007 is applied to all TVs installed in the
stock in 2007, which is made up of those purchased in
previous years). These parameters were applied in the
end-use stock model. Data sources for these were many
and varied and include a range of ABS surveys, intrusive
surveys conducted by EES on standby (EES 2006a),
industry studies, end-use metering studies (eg BRANZ
(2006) in NZ and Pacific Power (1994) in Australia) as well
as selected state and overseas studies. See Section 6
fordetails.
The stock model is broken into four main modules: electrical
appliances, cooking, water heating and space heating
andcooling.

2.3 Appliance modelling


methodology

Figure 1: Schematic of End-Use Model

APPLIANCE
ATTRIBUTES
BY YEAR

APPLIANCE
OWNERSHIP BY
STATE AND YEAR

USAGE
PARAMETERS

END-USE
STOCK MODEL

APPLIANCE
MODULE

COOKING
MODULE

WATER
HEATER
MODULE

SPACE HEAT
AND COOL
MODULE

HOUSING
STOCK MODEL
TOTAL ENERGY
BY
YEAR, STATE, FUEL TYPE
AND END USE

THERMAL
SIMULATION MODEL

The hot water model takes into account the impact of factors
that are influenced by climate such as hot water demand,
cold water temperatures and the performance of solar
systems in different climate zones.
The housing stock model is particularly complex, taking into
account the key attributes of the building shell stock in each
state based on construction approvals since 1986 as well
as climate data. Dwellings in each state were allocated into
one of 10 standard AccuRate climate zones which were
selected to cover the major climate zones/population centres
in Australia. Dwellings in each state were apportioned to
each relevant climate zone on the basis of the number of
households in each postcode area as reported by Australia
Post. Appliance ownership data and occupancy information
together with estimated zoning within the residential stock
was applied to AccuRate thermal performance simulation
output data to generate heating and cooling demand.
The end-use stock model has the capability of estimating
the impact of selected end-use behavioural changes which
applies to all stock, such as the tendency towards the use of
cold water washing or hours of operation/frequency of use.
The model also has the capability to quantify the impact of
various alternative penetration scenarios (eg higher level of
natural gas penetration), although this was not undertaken
explicitly for this project, as it was beyond the scope of work.
The model is particularly suitable to quantify the impact of
future energy programs when compared to a business as
usual or trend-line scenario, such as the impact of increased
efficiency of new appliances.

The appliance stock model draws new products into the


existing stock of products each year. The characteristics
(attributes) of these new products and the number entering
the pool are weighted and added to the pool of existing
products. Each year, products are also retired from the pool
of products according to the selected retirement function
(age and distribution) for that product. The retirement function
is based on a normal distribution curve which is used to
define the average age and the standard deviation of the age
for each product. Typically a standard deviation of three years
is used for products with a life of 10 years or more or two
years for products with shorter lives.
Mathematically, products enter the stock and remain there
until they are retired at the end of their life. All products in the
stock are equally affected by the usage factors which are
applied each year (eg hours of watching a TV, share of cold
washes are applied to current stock, not by the year that
they entered the stock). The implied sales of new products
in each year is estimated from the sum of the increase in the
stock (based on ownership changes and household number
increases) plus the replacement of retired stock. For some
products the life is known with some certainty, but for most
products, the average life is not well documented as this
parameter is difficult to measure and few studies track the
age of scrapped products that are finally leaving the stock.
Many older appliances are retained and used or passed on
to a relative or sold, so effectively they remain part of the total
stock until they are effectively scrapped.
One approach used was to adjust the life to generate a
sales stream that matches approximately the known sales of
products. This is useful where the ownership and sales trends
are known with a degree of certainty. However, this approach
can be difficult for products that are rapidly changing their
ownership or where a substantial proportion of the sales go
in to sectors other than the residential sector (eg computers,
air conditioners).
The retirement function for a 10-year life and a standard
deviation of two years is depicted in Figure 2. Alternatively,
retirements can also be depicted as a function of the stock
remaining (Figure 3).
Any life and standard deviation of life can be selected for
a product in the stock model, although the practical lower
limit of life is five years and the upper limit is 25 years under
the current configuration. The standard deviation needs
to be limited for shorter life spans so that some products
do not have a negative life. In the model itself, retirements
are generated on an annual basis so these appear as
more of a step function as depicted rather than a smooth
curve (although in reality, sales and retirements are a
continuousfunction).

SECTION 2
7

RETIREMENTS IN YEAR

Figure 2: Retirement Function Stock Model

25%

20%
Example of stock average life of 10 years
with a standard deviation of 2 years

15%

10%

5%

0%
1

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

YEAR AFTER PURCHASE

Figure 3: Stock Remaining Stock Model

STOCK REMAINING

100%
Example of stock average life of 10 years with a
standard deviation of 2 years

90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

YEAR AFTER PURCHASE

PROJECT OVERVIEW
8

Changing the life of a product in the stock model mainly


changes its turnover profile and the rate of change of key
energy attributes. Long-lived products have relatively low
sales (for their ownership) and the rate of change in the stock
average attributes is slow. Conversely, a short life means
high sales and a rapid diffusion of new products and their
attributes into the stock. Of course it is important to get the
average life of products reasonably close to reality so that the
rate of change in energy efficiency and energy consumption
is reflected as accurately as possible. The stock model only
uses the stock turnover function to estimate the change in
average characteristics (attributes) of the stock by year the
projected ownership and stock is always used to estimate
the energy consumption of the product (not the implied stock
numbers generated by the stock model). Of course, the ratio
of actual stock to that projected by the model should be as
close to unity as possible.
The stock model has been depicted graphically in Figure 4.
The products installed in a particular year (called a cohort)
are shown as a single colour (sloping wedges) and the
stock in any particular year is made up of the stock that has
been installed in previous years that is still remaining in the
year of interest and is represented as a vertical line through
thecohorts.

The assumed standard deviation generally has only a small


affect on the average attributes in any one year. However, it
does smooth the impact of rapid changes in ownership and
attributes (eg that may result from the introduction of MEPS)
so as to be more realistic in terms of their diffusion into
thestock.
In the current configuration, the stock model does not have
the facility to alter the average age of appliances by year
of installation. While this is mathematically possible and in
fact may reflect to some degree the reduced age of some
cheaper and lower quality products that have come on to the
market in recent years, there is in fact no data to quantify any
such trends in the average age of products. This could be
considered as a future refinement if data becomes available.
Where different usage patterns or key characteristics are
known to apply to different sub-classes of a product, these
are split into sub-modules. Examples are separate modelling
of top-loading and front-loading washing machines, tracking
of individual groups for refrigerators and freezers (which
are then re-aggregated for modelling purposes), separate
modelling of various air conditioner types and separate
tracking of the three main TV technology types.

The assumed life and other key parameters are documented


in the relevant sections below and quantified in the output
tables at the end of this report.
Figure 4: Graphical Depiction of the EES Stock Model

STOCK INSTALLED (MILLIONS)

3.0
Appliance stock in 2006 is made up of
appliances installed in previous years

2.5
Appliances installed in 1993 persist in
the stock until about 2012 in this case

2.0

1.5

1.0

5.0

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

0.0

YEAR

SECTION 2
9

2.4 Tracking appliance end


uses
Nearly 60 separate end-use types have been modelled for
this project. For each of these end uses, the following input
data is required for modelling:
Ownership from 1966 to 2020 by state (uniform state
average assumed).
Appliance usage factors from 1986 to 2020 (these are
mostly uniform at a national level, but some attributes are
varied at a state level where data is available eg dryer use
is known to vary by state).
Appliance attributes from 1966 to 2020 (uniform national
attributes are assumed).
Average appliance life and standard deviation (assumed to
be uniform over time and across states).

Heating wood open combustion


Heating wood closed combustion

Water heaters
Water heater electric2
Water heater gas instant (LPG)
Water heater gas instant (mains)
Water heater gas storage (LPG)
Water heater gas storage (mains)
Water heater heat pump
Water heater solar electric (flat plate thermal)
Water heater solar gas in line instantaneous boost
Water heater solar gas in tank boost

Cooking products

In addition, for the years 1986 to 2004, actual hourly


weather data was used to estimate space heating and
cooling requirements as part of the housing stock model
which is used as an input into the space heating and cooling
model. This is quite important as for many states there is
considerable energy consumption variation from year-to-year
as a result of variations in weather. From 2005 onwards, the
AccuRate standard weather year was used for all building
shell simulations. This explains the smooth energy estimates
from 2005 onwards. It should be noted that in some cases
the AccuRate standard weather year was quite different to
the average of years from 1986 to 2004 or the trends across
those years, and therefore a small discontinuity appears
across the years 2004 and 2005. This is examined in more
detail in later sections.

Cooking electric cook-top

The stock model estimates energy at a state level for the


following end-use appliances and equipment:

Microwaves

Space cooling equipment

Cooking electric oven


Cooking LPG cook-top
Cooking LPG oven
Cooking mains gas cook-top
Cooking mains gas oven

Major appliances
Clothes dryers
Clothes washers front loading (drum)
Clothes washers top loading (agitator and impeller)
Dishwashers
Freezers
Refrigerators

Information technology products

Cooling AC cooling only non-ducted (split and


windowwall)

Computers desktop

Cooling AC ducted (cooling only and reverse cycle)

Monitors (used with desktop computers)

Cooling AC reverse non-ducted (split and window wall)

Computers laptop

Cooling evaporative (mostly central)

Miscellaneous IT equipment switched


Miscellaneous IT equipment unswitched

Space heating equipment


Heating electric resistive

Home entertainment equipment

Heating LPG gas non-ducted1

DVD (includes players and recorders)

Heating mains gas ducted

Home entertainment other (mostly audio equipment)

Heating mains gas non-ducted

Games consoles

Heating reverse-cycle ducted

Set-top box free-to-air digital

Heating reverse-cycle non-ducted

Set-top box subscription

2
1

All LPG gas heaters are assumed to be non-ducted ducted LPG heaters
are possible but rare.

PROJECT OVERVIEW
10

Electric water heating systems are assumed to be storage systems that


have an average heat losses which is based on a sales weighted mix of
tank sizes over time. Non-storage electric systems are rare.

Television composite average3


Video Cassette Recorder (VCR) (includes combo DVD)

The available data allowed disaggregation of the stock


asfollows:
By jurisdiction (States and Territories).

Other equipment
Electric kettles
Lighting
Other electricity (small miscellaneous loads, some
secondary heating)
Other standby (other products not already covered)
Swimming pools electricity
Swimming pools gas heating
Spas electricity
Spas gas heating
Water beds
Modelling was at the state level for all of the above appliances,
but also at a regional climatic level for building shells to
determine heating and cooling loads for space conditioning
equipment (which was then re-aggregated to state level for
stock modelling purposes). Modelling of the performance of
solar water heaters was also done on a climate basis and reaggregated back at state level for energy modelling.
Ownership for space heating and cooling products varied
considerably at a state level, but data at a climate/regional
level was not available so uniform ownership is assumed at
a state level (although this may not be strictly true for some
products like evaporative air conditioners or gas heaters
which are concentrated in urban areas)4.

2.5 H
ousing stock modelling
methodology
The housing stock model draws upon available data to
establish a profile of housing in Australia over the past 20
years with projections into the future.

For televisions the attributes and sales share are tracked for each of
the three major technology types (CRT, LCD and plasma). The stock
energy consumption has been estimated through a single composite
stockmodel.
The stock model used for this study assumes uniform penetration,
ownership and availability of fuels across each state. This is clearly a
simplification, as the availability of natural gas, for example, is generally
much lower in regional areas compared to capital cities. Climate
zones across some states are also very different from capital cities in
some cases. While there is some data available that could support the
development of separate ownership data sets for capital cities and
regional areas, this has not been done for this study. This would require an
additional six sets of stock models to be developed (all states would have
capital and regional models except for the NT and ACT) and it would add
considerable complexity to the housing stock model. Potential problems of
such an approach are that many of the main data sets which are used as
inputs are only available at a state level (in fact all data sets except some
of the recent ABS surveys) and regional breakdowns of top-down energy
data are not available, so bottom-up and top-down reconciliation would
still have to done at a state level. Some investigations of capital/regional
differences could be undertaken if state agencies were interested in these
specificinvestigations.

By housing type (detached, semi-detached, low-rise flats,


high-rise flats).
By wall construction (lightweight, brick veneer
andheavyweight).
By floor type (suspended timber or concrete).
By insulation (none, ceiling only and both ceiling and wall).
The housing stock model was constructed in three steps.
Firstly a base year was established. The base year of
1986 coincided with the last major survey of housing
characteristics undertaken by the ABS (ABS8212). Secondly,
from the base year (end of financial year 1986) to the end
of the 2005 financial year, annual ABS data on new building
activity collected from all local councils in Australia was used
in conjunction with many secondary data sources to establish
stock attributes for each state in each of the intervening
years. Finally projections of housing stock numbers and
share by housing type were made up until 2020 based on a
business as usual case which assumed that current trends
(construction types, sizes) would continue.
The housing stock model used in this study is detailed in
Section 7. Figure 68 in Section 7 provides a summary of the
housing stock model, which commenced in 1986. Data on
new houses constructed from this year onwards (as collected
by ABS) was added to the stock. There was an allowance for
non-starts and some demolitions to provide an estimate of
the total stock and their characteristics from 1986 to 2004.
Unlike appliances, buildings have an average life of many
decades (probably approaching 100 years in many cases), so
a building shell model had to be specially developed.
The main inputs into the building shell model included:
New housing entering the stock Detailed ABS data on
number, construction and floor area of all new dwellings
constructed between 1986 and 2005 based on local
government approvals. Advice on likely future trends
in floor area was received from the Housing Industry
Association (HIA).
Retirements of existing stock A retirement function
based on known demolition rates reported in the Victorian
jurisdiction was applied nationally to remove a small
percentage (0.18%) of the existing stock each year.
Conversions of existing stock Stock numbers for
particular construction types were adjusted to account for
the retrofitting of insulation to their roof spaces.
Augmentation of floor area through renovations Floor
areas were adjusted upwards annually according to the
rate of floor area augmentation through renovations.
Increases were based on several years of survey data
collected by BIS Shrapnel.

SECTION 2
11

Various adjustments Various adjustments were applied to


the model to account for known disparities between ABS
new housing approvals numbers and actual realisation
rates, as well as year-to-year variations in vacancy rates as
reported by the ABS. A final small adjustment was made to
the stock to ensure that estimates matched census data for
household numbers for most years (inter-censual data from
1986 to 2004 reported in ABS3101 were found to be slightly
variable so this data was smoothed). The data also matches
ABS3236 household number projections post 2001 to 2020.

To effectively model these variables the latest thermal


performance modelling tool produced by the CSIRO was
used. The software was AccuRate but for this project some
of the default settings were adjusted and a batching program
to allow large numbers of runs was used.

2.6 Space conditioning load


modelling methodology

Climate data (actual data from 1986 to 2004, standard


AccuRate year from 2005).

Energy use resulting from space heating and cooling end


uses are dependent not only on the relative efficiencies of the
space conditioning appliances themselves and the climate,
but also on the behaviour of the occupants and the thermal
performance characteristics of the building shell in which
theyoperate.
Changes in the thermal performance characteristics of the
building stock can result in altered levels of demand for both
heating and cooling. Thermal performance of the building
shell is governed by a number of major factors, in particular:
Floor area.
Insulation levels for ceilings, walls and to a minor degree,
floors.
Thermal mass primarily affected through choice of floor
and internal wall construction materials.
Orientation, to the extent that it affects exposure to incident
solar radiation, especially upon windows.
Glazing area, type and shading.
Infiltration (air leakage).
Behavioural eg occupancy profiles and thermostat
settingselections.

The main inputs into this software were:


Design characteristics of a sample set of
representativedwellings.
Various construction formats to match known variants
within the stock.

User behavioural characteristics.


Occupancy profiles.
Thermostat settings.
The space conditioning load modelling used in this study
is detailed in Section 8. Figure 80 in Section 8 provides a
summary of the main inputs into the modelling.
Modelling was conducted on a range of selected sample
dwelling types selected as representative of the building
stock as a whole. These sample dwelling types were
modelled through the full range of identified construction
formats (see Section 7.2.4). In addition, each dwelling type
was modelled through the four ordinal orientations and the
results averaged.
In addition to the set of representative dwelling types
adopted, a performance based type of construction was
also included in the modelling. This form of construction
allowed for any specified level of thermal performance
to be applied to given sections of the stock, particularly
newer stock affected by recent policy initiatives at both
state and federal levels. These performance levels typically
manifest themselves as minimum star rating requirements.

Table 1: Grouped Climate Zones


Grouped Heating Zone Name

Grouped Cooling Zone Name

Designated AccuRate Climate Zone

H1 (least heating)

C10 (most cooling)

1 Darwin

H2

C9

5 Townsville

H3

C7

10 Brisbane

H4

C4

56 Mascot (Airport)

H5

C8

16 Adelaide

H6

C6

21 Melbourne RO

H7

C2

62 Moorabbin (Airport)

H8

C3

60 Tullamarine (Airport)

H9

C5

24 Canberra

H10 (most heating)

C1 (least cooling)

65 Orange

PROJECT OVERVIEW
12

These performance levels had to be split into heating and


cooling components based on the particular climate and
then adjusted to conform to the assumptions regarding
occupancy profiling and thermostat operation (see Sections
8.4 and 8.6, respectively) that were adopted in this study and
that differ from the default settings in AccuRate.
Modelling was conducted in a total of 10 different climate
zones for heating purposes and 10 different zones for
cooling purposes (Table 1). These zones were selected in
consultation with DEWHA as being representative of the
range of climate zones found in Australia (weighted towards
zones with maximum population densities). Modelled results
from each climate zone were then weighted according to the
prevalence of dwellings within that climate zone within each
state and territory as determined from Australia Post data on
households by postcode. Actual hourly Australian Climate
Data Base (ACDB) weather data for the period 1986 to 2004
was used in the simulation process to ensure modelled
results would match as closely as possible to actual energy
demand for space conditioning in each of those years.
Some inputs into the AccuRate model (mostly relating to
user behaviour) were modified from the default settings that
are used for rating purposes, to better reflect actual user
behaviour and climatic conditions. In particular these were:
Occupancy profiles.
Cooling thermostat operation.
Climate files.
These three aspects, along with other assumptions related to
modelling inputs, are detailed in Section 8.

2.7 Areas identified for


further research
In undertaking this study significant gaps were identified in
the knowledge base that underpins the estimates in this
report. The following subsections detail some of the more
significant gaps and recommends further research be
undertaken in these areas which have been identified by the
authors for further consideration.

2.7.1

End-use monitoring

Many of the appliance energy consumption estimates in


this study rely on outdated research undertaken in a limited
number of states that are typically more than 15 years old
or, alternatively, on work undertaken in New Zealand. There
has never been a comprehensive Australia-wide residential
sector end-use study for electricity or gas use. This study has
highlighted the paucity of end-use data for residential energy
use in Australia.

Modern, relatively inexpensive monitoring equipment with


remote download options are now available, and this would
make the task less expensive and more achievable.
With the Solar Cities program being geared to collect
residential data throughout Australia, an opportunity exists
for a cooperative effort on this front. A central repository of
Australian end-use metering data would also be desirable.

2.7.2

Understanding user behaviour

Further research into what drives particular user behaviour


is important, especially for certain end uses such as air
conditioners and space heating. There is wide variation in
energy use within households. Data from a range of sources
suggest that, for example, 5% of households consume up
to 15% of household electricity. To underpin more focused
policy development, over time, it will be useful to develop
analysis of the energy-use patterns of different types of
households, and to develop a better understanding of the
causes for the range in usage.
User behaviour is most accurately ascertained from end-use
metering data. This requires metering equipment that can
accurately measure power in all modes and an understanding
of the power levels in each of the relevant modes for the
device being monitored (pre-testing prior to monitoring).
Current research under way by Macquarie University and
CSIRO may shed further light on user behaviour with respect
to cooling requirements, which will be invaluable.

2.7.3

Future trends new appliances

The emergence of new appliances could be significant drivers


of demand. For example, micro-fridges and wine coolers using
inefficient Peltier device cooling systems could be driven by
aggressive marketing. At present these items do not have to
meet MEPS nor carry energy labels. An active program that
identifies emerging products and evaluates their potential
energy implications before they build significant market shares
would be beneficial. The other problem is that new end uses
are being continuously developed in this electronic age and
it is impossible to predict what these end uses may be or
what future energy impacts they may have. So, ongoing
monitoring of the market and appliances in homes is critical
in order to obtain a clearer picture of energy trends and to
develop programs to address future energy problems. Such
research could also underpin projects to improve the efficiency
of a variety of appliances. Ongoing liaison with the Australian
Bureau of Statistics and other research bodies will be needed
to ensure that ongoing surveys remain relevant and current
trends are being monitored.

There is a desperate need for the ongoing collection of much


more comprehensive end-use metering data to underpin
policy analysis, program development and future research.

SECTION 2
13

2.7.4

Appliance lifetimes

There is little data on trends in appliance lifetimes. This is


a significant factor that influences the replacement rate
and stock level. Further research is important, particularly
on tracking secondary products in use in households and
older products as they finally leave the stock. Research
into average life by cohort would also be valuable, eg
quantification whether or not low-cost products flooding
the market have a shorter life than older products this can
affect future projections significantly.

2.7.5

Lighting

Lighting represents a significant end use with very poor


end-use data. As such, more work needs to be undertaken
to collect data related to lighting types installed in new and
existing homes and their hours of operation. Emerging
trends also need to be better understood. It would appear
that there has been a strong drift towards high-energy and
high-illumination levels in the residential sector. This is despite
improvements in efficiency and reduced costs of fluorescent
technologies, however data is very limited. These factors will
all have a large impact on future energy demand for lighting
and the potential effectiveness of a range of future program
measures. This is particularly important as a range of lighting
efficiency programs are proposed in the coming years.
Anecdotal evidence suggests that in both separate and high
density housing, there is an increase in outdoor lighting use
for aesthetic and security reasons. This has not yet been welldocumented (or modelled in this study), but some examples
observed (by Alan Pears who reviewed this study) involve more
energy use than for internal lighting of a typical home.
It is recommended that a walk through audit of a few hundred
homes be undertaken to establish the current stock of lighting.
This would be quick and relatively inexpensive as it would
involve merely counting the number, location, type and power
rating of all lighting fittings in each home together with a
short questionnaire of householders. Some research on new
building trends could be established with a survey of a range of
majorbuilders.
End-use metering would also be very valuable on some of the
surveyed homes to calibrate any end-use models that may
be developed with the data. As this would be likely to require
wiring changes on household switchboards (to fit suitable
metering equipment to cover all household lighting circuits) this
would be best bundled with some other metering program.
This should also be supplemented with some metering of
individual lighting points through optical sensors which can
record on and off times for individual lighting fixtures.

2.7.6

Refrigerators and freezers

There is surprisingly little work that attempts to establish


the relationship between energy consumption measured in

PROJECT OVERVIEW
14

accordance with the test procedure AS/NZS4474.1 (which


is the basis for energy labelling and MEPS in Australia and
NZ) and actual energy consumption during normal use. The
laboratory tested energy consumption is obviously known with
great certainty and every model on the market is registered
by government and information on sales weighted energy
and efficiency by type is also very well documented. However,
establishing the in-use energy consumption from the laboratory
value is complex as the temperature-energy response curve
for each model is different and no data on these curves is
generally available. A related issue is that the energy efficiency
established under test conditions (star rating) may not be valid
for all ambient conditions or climate zones. So this is research
that would be of value from a program perspective as well as
an energy modelling perspective.

2.7.7

Clothes washer use and its response

As for refrigerators, there is excellent data on the general


performance parameters of new clothes washers through
the energy labelling program as well as good market data to
establish market trends and typical attributes. However, several
aspects of clothes washers are not well documented and
these can have a significant impact on energy consumption.
Firstly, it is known that typical users under-load their washers
(in comparison to the rated capacity) the Australian
Consumers Association reports that a typical load is about
50% of rated capacity. This would appear to be an important
input for modelling purposes. However, it is unclear how
many washers in the stock have a capability for load sensing
and, secondly, the response of those machines that can load
sense is not known. Many older style washers have a manual
water fill level selection but these are disappearing in favour
of fully electronic controls. Washers without load sensing will
use the same water and energy irrespective of the load size.
Washers with load sensing will respond to the reduced load,
but the savings in terms of water and energy are not known
at this stage.
The standards committee responsible for clothes washers
(which has a number of regulators and DEWHA staff as
members) has agreed in principle to introduce part-load
testing in the next few years and to examine options for
reassessing the label energy efficiency (star rating) on the
basis of full and part-load energy (and presumably water)
performance. While there are still many technical details to be
sorted out, this would appear to be a valuable step forward
within the energy labelling program and resources to support
this work should be made available.
In terms of end-use energy consumption modelling, the
part-load work in the standards committee would need to be
supported with surveys of such things as typical load sizes
(and a load size distribution rather than just the average)
and actual wash temperatures. The latter point is of growing
importance with the increasing share of front loaders (drum
machines) as the programs actually available may not

permit true cold washing any more, which will have energy
impacts. More research into connection modes for these
types of washers (ie are all dual-connect models connected
to hot and cold) is also important. Better information on
the frequency of use is also required, and this can be best
collected through end-use metering programs. Some data on
the program selected (for models that heat water internally)
can also be obtained from end-use metering.

2.7.8

Dishwasher connection modes

As for refrigerators and clothes washers, there is excellent


data on the general performance parameters of new
dishwashers through the energy labelling program as well
as good market data to establish market trends and typical
attributes. However, it is known that a significant minority
of dishwasher users have their appliances connected to a
hot water supply (rather than a cold water supply) to take
advantage of low-cost hot water systems (eg off-peak,
gas, solar). This has a significant impact on total energy
consumption of the dishwasher (every fill is a hot fill rather
than only half the fills on average). It also affects the energy
balance for this product (this reduces plug electricity but
increases hot water load on the hot water system) which is
important to understand from a modelling perspective. So,
in-situ surveys of installation configuration would be valuable
(this needs to be on-site inspection as most consumers will
not know how their dishwasher is actually connected or may
not remember).

2.7.9

Duct losses

A review of data from the US suggests that duct losses (in


terms of conduction and leaks) can be as high as 40%. Little
data appears to be available for Australia and this is a potential
concern given the increase in ducted gas and air conditioning
systems. It is recommended that some primary research
be undertaken to establish the performance of the stock of
ducted systems. This should be based on field measurements
of a range of representative systems (methodologies to
measure such parameters are well established in the US).
This may then provide opportunities to develop best practice
design and installation programs and possibly even mandatory
measures for installation if this iswarranted.

2.7.10 Performance of evaporative cooling


systems
There is relatively poor data on the energy service provided
by evaporative cooling systems. While these can provide a
low energy method of cooling, they can consume significant
quantities of water. They are also only suitable for a limited
number of climate zones (hotter drier regions). A technical
review of the performance of evaporative systems, with a
particular reference to new technologies that can reduce
fan and pump loads as well as water consumption while
maintaining performance should be undertaken. This would

provide a basis for government to determine whether any


active policies for these types of systems are warranted, for
which regions they are recommended, and whether advice
and information on system performance, should be provided
to the public as part of the overall E3 strategy.

2.7.11 Hot water data


Despite powerful tools for modelling of energy consumption
of water heaters being available (eg AS4234 and TRNSYS),
data on actual use of hot water in households is generally
poor. Traditional utility data for controlled loads, which are
mostly off-peak hot water, are not generally available in the
public domain any more. Very few studies have monitored
hot water loads in households. It is known that there is a
wide distribution of actual hot water consumption across
households, but the factors that drive this variation are
not known. There is also some anecdotal evidence that
households with water heaters such as gas instantaneous
can effectively supply unconstrained amounts of hot water,
but have a much higher hot water consumption (BRANZ
2005). So while such systems may be more efficient, they
may result in an overall increase in total energy consumption.
There is also very poor data on key parameters such as cold
water supply temperatures by time of year and the number of
draw-offs per day, which is important for instantaneous gas
systems (due to start-up losses).
End-use metering of hot water loads is generally more
complex than simple electrical appliances and may
require insertion of equipment in gas and/or water supply
systems in households. But a targeted program would
be very worthwhile to establish some of these patterns.
Some information on usage patterns of mains powered
instantaneous gas systems can be inferred from electrical
metering with a short sampling duration.

2.7.12 State and national requirements for


hot water systems
The regulatory requirement for the installation of hot water
systems in new homes at a state level is increasingly complex
(GWA 2007b). These program activities will have longterm impacts on future penetration of various water heater
types which will in turn affect future energy requirements.
Some states are also planning to introduce requirements for
replacement water heaters in existing homes. In addition to
this, there are a number of national program requirements
that can impact on water heaters, such as MEPS for gas
and electric systems. There are also proposals to introduce
performance requirements for water heaters into the Building
Code of Australia. It is recommended that a watching brief on
these activities be maintained and data collected on actual
installation of hot water system by type at a state level be
used to keep future ownership projections up to date.

SECTION 2
15

2.7.13 Televisions, monitors, computers and


related equipment
This study identified that energy use of televisions is set
to become one of the most significant end uses in the
residential sector over the next 10 years. As such, better data
on number, type and usage patterns is urgently needed. In
general, the whole home electronics area is one where better
data on ownership and usage would be very useful as most
large-scale surveys only record very limited information on
these types of products.
Trends in energy use of televisions, gaming consoles and
computers might also benefit from further analysis and
sensitivity studies. There are complex trends and rapid
technology developments in these areas. For example, while
screen size and resolution are increasing, technologies are
improving in efficiency and breakthrough technologies
seem close (OLED and laser TV both seem likely to arrive
from 2008 to 2010, and promise large reductions in energy
consumption per square centimetre of screen area). The
prevalence of integrated digital tuners in new televisions
needs to be closely monitored as this will impact on
future demand for digital set-top boxes to convert digital
broadcasts for analogue televisions. Personal video products
such as myvu (see www.myvu.com) may also replace some
use of conventional televisions. At the same time, computer
users may shift to multiple monitors and higher power
consumption equipment although industry sources claim
that new processors use less energy as they manage their
own operation more intelligently. Computers may be used as
secondary televisions when fitted with tuners; information on
this aspect needs to be monitored.
Computer use, together with their peripherals, is likely to
account for significant future energy consumption. High
penetration of broadband, computer networks, wireless
systems and increasingly networks which include household
appliances have the potential to increase standby and low
power mode consumption substantially. Energy management
for all of these products (including televisions) is critical in
terms of reducing overall energy consumption.

2.7.14 Central services energy use


High-rise housing and medium-density housing increasingly
use large amounts of energy for central services and
communal areas. Surveys for BASIX and in the City of
Melbourne suggest that central services energy use can
be half of total building energy use in residential towers5.
These energy bills are usually paid by the body corporate
or professional body corporate managers, so they may be
allocated to the commercial sector. As these types of housing
represent a significant (and growing) share of the residential
sector, it is important to improve data collection and allocation.
5

Advice received from Alan Pears as part of the review process undertaken
on this report.

PROJECT OVERVIEW
16

2.7.15 Unoccupied dwelling energy use


Unoccupied dwellings typically account for approximately
10% of the total stock of housing. The majority of unoccupied
dwellings are assumed to be holiday homes but energy
use in these dwellings is not well understood. Anecdotal
observations indicate that many holiday homes have old
refrigerators and off-peak electric hot water, as well as old
appliances. If left on, these may have high standby energy
losses. Further investigation is warranted.

2.7.16 Floor area trends


Likely trends in floor areas need to be better understood.
This study has assumed that new housing floor areas have
plateaued but various factors such as land availability,
affordability pressures, reductions in household numbers and
demographic changes over the longer term may in fact drive
the average floor areas of new dwellings downwards and
possibly reduce the extent of renovation works that increase
floor area. Improving the understanding of the significance of
this trend would be useful.

2.7.17 Updating the baseline model


While the preparation of the model for this report is a
substantial undertaking, with some ongoing maintenance,
it could provide a means of keeping end-use estimates
reasonably up to date as new data comes to hand. For
example, ABS will be undertaking a new national survey of
households in mid 2008 and an updated version of ABS4602
will be available in late 2008 or early 2009, Similarly, updated
reports from BIS Shrapnel will be available in 2008 and GfK
sales data is continually being updated (on an annual basis).
It will also provide a valuable tool for the evaluation of parts of
the E3 energy programs for buildings and appliances.
Part of this updating or ongoing maintenance could be the
incorporation of new or improved data (as recommended in
this section) into the model as it becomes available.
Such a model upgrade may also consider whether separate
ownership data for capital city and regional areas should be
developed for selected states.

2.7.18 Review of climate zones and weather


for modelling
The climate zones used in this study were selected in
consultation with DEWHA and aimed to provide the best
coverage in terms of population across Australia. It was felt
10 climate zones presented a practical limit for this version of
the report in terms of data processing and time requirements.
On review of the data and workload, it may be desirable to
include a few more selected climate zones in a future revision
of the model (however, this would require more time for
analysis and processing). The use of real weather data up
to 2004 provided an excellent opportunity to examine actual

year-to-year variations against modelled heating and cooling


requirements. Given that Australian populations are highly
urbanised and mostly concentrated in capital cities, a future
revision of the study should consider adopting climate zones
that cover all of the capital cities supplemented with other
climate zones that provide adequate coverage for non-capital
city areas. This would provide a sounder basis for calibration
of the end-use model against actual consumption. Additional
climate zones are not, however, likely to improve future
average estimates for heating and cooling.
Weather data in ACDB format should be updated from time
to time to give a longer time series of actual weather data.
Also, the default AccuRate weather file which was used
for modelling forward projections in this study should be
reviewed in light of the available historic data to ensure that
these are likely to be reasonably representative of expected
current climate conditions. One issue that became apparent
through this study was that in some of the climate zones
(particularly southern states) there has been a decrease in
heating requirements and an increase in cooling requirements
over time. This could indicate the growing effects of urban
heat islands or possibly global warming effects on climate,
which could be considered in terms of future scenario
modelling.

2.7.19 Peak loads


Exploration of the contributions of residential energy to peak
electricity (and gas both via direct use of gas and gas-fired
electricity) demand as an extension of this work is considered
a very important area of further study, especially for air
conditioning systems.

2.7.20 Top-down versus bottom-up data


comparisons
The widening gap between ABAREs official data and the EES
bottom-up estimate since 2001 for electricity is of concern
(see Section 9 and Appendix A for more detailed discussion),
especially because the ABARE trend for residential energy
use is steeply upward (while ABAREs commercial sector
data shows a very surprising flat-lining or relative decline of
commercial sector energy use over the same period).
Efforts to evaluate the impact of government policies are
heavily dependent on having good quality data, so it is critical
that any anomalies and uncertainties be resolved.

SECTION 2
17

18

SECTION 3

KEY RESULTS AND TREND ANALYSIS

3 Key

results and
trend analysis

All years quoted in this report are financial years ending in


June of the year quoted (eg 2007 means financial year from
July 2006 to June 2007).

3.1 Introduction
Estimates of Australian residential energy use presented in
this section represent the key results from the EES end-use
model. Detailed comparisons of these estimates with those
published by ABARE are provided in Section 9.
All estimates are of delivered energy (also called Final Energy
Consumption) as metered or delivered to the household. In
particular, energy used to generate, transmit and distribute
electricity energy is not estimated. While some of the
energy sources covered can be considered as primary
energy sources (solar, natural gas, LPG), natural gas and
LPG in particular have some associated energy costs
with their collection and distribution and this has not been
considered in this study. Estimates include only operational
energy use for appliances and equipment and do not cover
any estimates for embodied energy that is used for the
manufacturing of buildings, appliances and equipment or
other consumables such as food. This section provides
estimates of energy consumption only. Greenhouse gas
emission estimates have been undertaken as part of the
cross-sector analysis in the Australias National Greenhouse
Gas Inventory (GWA 2008) using the end-use energy
estimates provided by this report.

3.2 The national perspective


3.2.1

Total residential energy use

According to ABAREs latest estimates of Australian


energy consumption, by industry and fuel type, in 2007 the
residential sector accounted for 451 PJ or 12% of Australias
total energy consumption of 3642 PJ.
While these ABARE figures are of interest in terms of the
national relevance of the residential sector in terms of energy
use, the remainder of this report cites the key results from the
end-use model developed by EES for this project. Readers
should be aware that estimates of total energy use in the
residential sector derived from the EES end-use model vary
to some degree from those historical values reported by
ABARE. This variation is partly due to the fact that some
fuels are covered by the ABARE survey (such as coal and
petroleum based products) which are not covered in the
EES end-use model, but these are generally very minor.
EES estimates for LPG only cover space heating, cooking
and hot water while ABARE estimates also cover other
residential uses such as recreation (camping and BBQs), so
ABARE estimates are expected to be slightly higher. ABARE
estimates for wood are comparable to EES estimates in 2006
but ABARE estimates are higher in earlier years. EES only

Figure 5: Trends in Residential Total Energy Consumption Australia (EES)

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

500
135% - 141% above 1990 levels

450

400

350
KYOTO
Commitment Period
(Green)

300
MODELLED

PROJECTED

250

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

200

YEAR

KEY RESULTS AND TREND ANALYSIS


20

3.2.2

estimates wood use for space heating as it is estimated that


wood use for cooking and hot water is small. ABARE and
EES estimates for natural gas match fairly well for most years,
although there were some discrepancies in some states (but
the match with Victoria, which dominates total mains gas
consumption, is generally good). ABARE and EES estimates
for electricity are quite close for most states in most years,
but there is a significant divergence from about 2001 in most
states which cannot be explained in terms of the ownership
and use of appliances. These discrepancies are examined in
more detail in Section 9 and Appendix A of this report.

Energy use by fuel type

The contribution of electricity to residential energy


consumption is predicted to increase from 46% in 1990 to
53% in 2020 (Figure 6). Gas consumption is also expected
to increase from 30% of total energy consumption in 1990
to 37% in 2020 while wood is predicted to decease from
21% to only 8% over the same period. LPG use will remain
relatively unchanged and is expected to contribute to 2% of
residential energy use in 2020. Trends from 1990 to 2020 are
illustrated in Figure 7 and Table 2.

According to EES estimates, residential sector energy


consumption in 1990 was about 298.8 PJ (ABARE estimate
308.8 PJ for the same fuels 3% difference) and this is
currently about 396.6 PJ (2007) (ABARE estimate 419.1
PJ for the same fuels 5% difference) and is projected to
increase to 467.4 PJ by 2020 under current trends (Figure
5). In this figure the Kyoto commitment period 2008-2012 is
marked in grey. Estimated residential energy consumption
during this period is 401.9 PJ (2008) to 421.2 PJ (2012)
or between 135% and 141% higher than the level in
1990. Trends towards an increased proportion of the total
residential energy demand being met by electricity and a
decrease in the use of wood (see Section 3.2.2) indicate that
growth in greenhouse gas emissions associated with this
energy use will be at least as high as the growth in energy
use (ie at least 135% above 1990 levels by 2008). The
remaining figures quoted in this report are modelled values
prepared by EES.

3.2.3

Energy use by major end use

Figure 8 (1990), Figure 9 (2007) and Figure 10 (2020)


provide snapshots of residential energy use by major
end use. In each of these years electrical appliances and
equipment constitute the single largest end use in terms of
energy consumption. Mains gas space heating (mostly for
Victoria) and also mains gas and electric water heating are
also significant end uses in terms of total end-use energy
consumption. Wood space heating was significant in 1990
(21%) but its share has been declining slowly and by 2020
wood space heating is projected to account for only 8% of
total residential energy use.
From 1990 to 2020 the major trends in energy consumption
by end use can be summarised as follows:
A significant increase in the share of energy use by
electrical appliances (share increase from 24% to 36%).

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

Figure 6: Residential Energy Consumption by Fuel Type Australia 1990 and 2020 (EES)

300

1990
2020

246.4

250

200
173.6
138.3

150

89.2

100
63.8
38.2

50

9.1

7.5

0
ELECTRICITY

MAINS GAS

LPG

WOOD
FUEL TYPE

SECTION 3
21

The floor area of the average new dwelling continues to


significantly exceed that of the stock average, thereby
driving up the average floor area of the stock of dwellings
as a whole over time.

A significant increase in the share of energy use for mains


gas space heating (share increase from 16% to 25%).
A significant decrease in the share of energy use for wood
space heating (share decrease from 21% to 8%).

Householders continue to undertake renovations that


increase the floor areas of their existing dwellings,
particularly older detached dwellings.

A significant decrease in the share of energy use for


electrical water heating (share decrease from 16% to 8%).
A significant increase in the share of energy use for
electrical space cooling (share increase from 1% to 4%).

The share of dwellings with whole house heating systems,


particularly gas heating, is projected to rise significantly
over the remainder of the study period, especially in the
colder states with high heating loads.

Trends from 1990 to 2020 for all major end uses are
illustrated in Figure 11.

The share of dwellings with space cooling installed is


projected to continue to rise significantly over the remainder
of the study period. While the energy consumption for
cooling is still relatively modest, this will have increased by
a factor of five or more from 1990 to 2020 under current
trends (over 15% per annum increase).

Figure 12, shows national trends in energy consumption by


each major end use from 1990 to 2020. Growth in electrical
appliance energy consumption was the largest among
major end uses and was estimated to increase from 70.5
PJ in 1990 to 169.4 PJ in 2020 ie 4.7% average growth per
annum. By 2020 electrical appliance energy use is forecast
to almost match space heating as the largest single energy
use in the average Australian household. Energy demand
for space heating is forecast to continue to rise but not at
the same rate as for appliances (1.3% average growth per
annum between 1990 and 2020).

The relatively recently introduced building shell performance


standards only affect approximately 2% of the total stock
per annum and in reality provide only a modest level of
improvement compared to the BAU case in terms of total
energy consumption projections to 2020. Nonetheless,
stringent standards for new dwellings will have large longterm energy impacts which continue to accrue well beyond
2020. Every poorly constructed new dwelling is an energy
liability that could remain with us for 100 years; alternatively,
the high cost of efficiency upgrade retrofit will be borne by
future generations.

Energy demand for heating and cooling is projected to


increase despite the introduction of minimum building shell
performance standards in all jurisdictions. The main factors
driving this trend are:

ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY FUEL (PJ)

Figure 7: Trends in Total Energy Consumption by Fuel Australia

Modelled

Projected

500

Wood

450

LPG

400

Mains Gas

350
300
250
200
150
100
50

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

YEAR

KEY RESULTS AND TREND ANALYSIS


22

Electricity

Table 2: Total Energy Consumption in petajoules by Fuel by Year Australia (EES)


Year

Electricity

Mains Gas

LPG

Wood

Total

1990

138.3

89.2

7.5

63.8

298.8

1991

139.5

88.7

7.3

57.7

293.2

1992

141.5

95.0

7.6

63.3

307.3

1993

144.6

97.1

7.7

66.7

316.2

1994

146.1

101.0

7.6

62.2

316.9

1995

151.4

111.3

8.2

71.4

342.3

1996

153.7

113.6

8.2

68.9

344.5

1997

158.1

113.9

8.4

68.6

348.9

1998

162.9

118.4

8.5

67.4

357.2

1999

166.9

118.0

8.6

65.4

358.9

2000

170.1

112.2

8.4

57.3

348.1

2001

175.1

114.2

8.4

53.7

351.4

2002

177.8

120.0

8.7

54.5

361.0

2003

182.1

117.6

8.2

48.8

356.7

2004

189.2

130.0

8.4

53.6

381.2

2005

192.6

133.1

8.2

53.2

387.1

2006

196.3

134.9

8.3

52.3

391.7

2007

200.1

137.0

8.3

51.3

396.6

2008

204.3

139.0

8.3

50.2

401.9

2009

208.8

141.0

8.4

49.1

407.3

2010

213.1

143.1

8.4

48.1

412.7

2011

216.1

145.4

8.4

47.1

417.0

2012

218.8

147.9

8.5

46.1

421.2

2013

221.4

150.6

8.5

45.1

425.6

2014

224.1

153.4

8.6

44.1

430.2

2015

226.6

156.4

8.7

43.1

434.8

2016

230.6

159.6

8.8

42.1

441.1

2017

234.7

162.9

8.9

41.2

447.6

2018

238.6

166.3

9.0

40.2

454.1

2019

242.6

169.9

9.0

39.2

460.7

2020

246.4

173.6

9.1

38.2

467.4

Source: EES model outputs

SECTION 3
23

Figure 8: Breakdown of Energy for Major End Uses 1990 Australia

Space Heating
Wood, 63.8, 21%

Appliances
Electricity, 69.0, 24%

Space Heating
LPG, 3.5, 1%

Cooking
LPG, 1.1, 0%
Water heating
LPG, 2.9, 1%
Water heating
Electricity, 47.4, 16%

Space Heating
Mains Gas, 48.0, 16%

Cooking
Electricity, 7.9, 3%

Cooking
Mains Gas, 5.9, 2%

Water heating
Mains Gas, 33.8, 11%

Appliances
Mains Gas, 1.5, 0%

Space Cooling
Electricity, 3.0, 1%

Space Heating
Electricity, 10.9, 4%

Note: Energy consumption shown in PJ followed by % share of total

Figure 9: Breakdown of Energy for Major End Uses 2007 Australia


Space Heating
LPG, 3.6, 1%

Space Heating
Wood, 51.3, 13%

Cooking
LPG, 1.8, 0%

Appliances
Electricity, 122.5, 31%

Water heating
LPG, 2.9, 1%

Space Heating
Mains Gas, 81.3, 21%

Water heating
Electricity, 43.1, 11%

Cooking
Mains Gas, 8.5, 2%

Cooking
Electricity, 9.3, 2%

Water heating
Mains Gas, 44.7, 11%

Appliances
Mains Gas, 2.4, 1%

Note: Energy consumption shown in PJ followed by % share of total

KEY RESULTS AND TREND ANALYSIS


24

Space Cooling
Electricity, 11.9, 3%

Space Heating
Electricity, 13.4, 3%

Figure 10: Breakdown of Energy for Major End Uses 2020 Australia
Space Heating
Wood, 38.2, 8%

Space Heating
LPG, 4.1, 1%

Cooking
LPG, 2.2, 0%

Appliances
Electricity, 166.1, 36%

Water heating
LPG, 2.8, 1%

Space Heating
Mains Gas, 116.0, 25%

Water heating
Electricity, 37.6, 8%

Cooking
Mains Gas, 11.3, 2%

Water heating
Mains Gas, 43.0, 9%

Cooking
Electricity, 9.4, 2%
Space Cooling
Electricity, 17.7, 4%

Appliances
Mains Gas, 3.2, 1%

Space Heating
Electricity, 15.6, 3%

Note: Energy consumption shown in PJ followed by % share of total

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

Figure 11: Trends in Total Energy Consumption by End Use Australia

Modelled
M
e

P
Projected
t

500

Wood Space Heating

450

LPG Space Heating

400

LPG Cooking
LPG Water heating

350

Mains Gas Cooking

250

Mains Gas Water heating

200
150

Electricity Space Cooling


Electricity Space Heating
Electricity Cooking

50

Electricity Water heating


Electricity Appliances

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

Mains Gas Appliances

100

0
1990

Mains Gas Space Heating

300

YEAR

SECTION 3
25

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

Figure 12: Trends in Total Energy Consumption by Major End Use Australia

Modelled

Projected

200

Appliances

180

Water Heating

160

Cooking

140

Space Heating

120

Space Cooling

100
80
60
40
20

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

YEAR

0.0

YEAR

KEY RESULTS AND TREND ANALYSIS


26

NUMBER HOUSEHOLDS (MILLION)

1.5

2020

200

2018

3.0

2016

400

2014

4.5

2012

600

2010

6.0

2008

800

2006

7.5

2004

1000

2002

9.0

2000

1200

1998

10.5

1996

1400

1994

12.0

1992

1600

1990

13.5

1988

1800

1986

FLOOR AREA (MILLIONS OF M2)

Figure 13: Trends in National Residential Floor Area and Number of Occupied Residential Households

Floor Area
Occupied
Residential
Households

The other major energy use, water heating, plateaued in 2004


and is expected to decline slowly to 2020. Notably this is the
only major energy use predicted to decline over the study
period, principally as a result of various energy programs
undertaken by State and Federal governments. The key
drivers for water heating are an increase in gas and solar
technologies and declining demand for hot water from waterefficient appliances (front-loading washing machines and
low-flow shower heads) as well as a decline in the number of
people per household.
Cooking energy is forecast to undergo slow but steady
growth of approximately 1.8% per annum over the study
period, roughly in line with the growth in the number of
households. There is a trend towards gas cook-tops and
electric ovens which is driven by consumer preference and
overall performance. Cooking energy consumption remains a
modest share of total energy consumption.
Of all the major end uses, space cooling is forecast to show
the most rapid growth over the study period with an average
growth of about 16% per annum. This growth comes off
a very low energy base of 3 PJ (1990), so even with this
high rate of growth in total energy terms by 2020 energy
consumption for space cooling is only 17.7 PJ or 4% of total
residential energy consumption in that year.
However, despite its low contribution to total energy
consumption, it is an end use that attracts considerable
political and policy attention due to its very poor load factor
and potential to create major problems for the electricity
generation, transmission and distribution system on peak
summer days. On summer days of maximum demand
the space cooling loads typically account for one-third
of total electrical system demand and in some states,
such as SA, can account for as much as half the total
system demand. Meet the cooling demand in the summer
places a significant impost on governments in terms of
infrastructure requirements. During extremely hot weather
the electricity transmission and distribution system is at its
lowest capacity. Various programs are examining options for
demand response capability for air conditioners and other
discretionary loads in order to redress some of these issues.
However, these are all peak load related issues and have
negligible impact on overall energy consumption for
these products. Building shell performance is the single
most important driver for future air conditioning energy
consumption, so performance requirements for new homes
(or lack thereof) will ultimately drive future air conditioning
demand. The rapid increase in air conditioner ownership
over the past eight years was not foreshadowed and would
appear to be driven by increasing wealth and lower costs
for air conditioners. Perversely, perceptions of climate
change making weather hotter together with an increase in
the prevalence of extreme weather days may also be having
some influence on the market.

3.2.4

Household projections and floor area

As part of this study, estimates of household numbers and


floor area were made from 1986 to 2020. Estimates for
occupied residential households are presented in Table 10
(Section 5). Estimates for total floor area by state by year are
presented in Table 3.
Figure 13 plots a time series from 1986 to 2020 of trends in
national residential floor area (primary y axis, left) and national
number of occupied residential households (secondary y
axis, right). Growth in number of occupied households over
the study period averages 1.7% per annum whereas over the
same period, growth in total floor area averages 3.1% per
annum (which equates to an effective increase in average per
house floor area of 1.4% per annum).
Between 1990 and 2020 the number of occupied residential
households is forecast to increase from six million to almost
10 million, an increase of 61%. Over the same period, total
residential floor area is set to rise from 685 millions square
metres to almost 1682 million square metres, an increase of
145%. Based on current trends, the average floor area of a
dwelling in 2020 is estimated to be 50% higher than a dwelling
in 1990, which has occurred despite declining household sizes
(in terms of the number of occupants). This significant increase
in floor area will impact significantly on some household energy
end uses, in particular space conditioning and to a lesser
extent lighting. Embodied energy per household would also
undergo a significant increase over the study period, although
this study makes no estimates of these impacts.

3.2.5

Energy trends per household and


percapital

By dividing the total residential energy consumption by the


estimated number of households in the corresponding year,
a trend in per household energy consumption can be derived.
Figure 14 shows that since 1990 energy consumption per
household have remained fairly constant apart from the
influence of year-to-year climatic variations that impact
significantly on space conditioning energy demand. Projecting
forward to 2020 there is expected to be a modest decline
in energy consumption per household of approximately 6%
compared to 1990 levels. This decline is achieved despite
expected increases in service deliveries to households,
particularly in space conditioning and in certain appliance types
(eg larger more power intensive televisions, increased standby
energy consumption, more lighting, more computers and other
home entertainment). This decline is being driven mainly by
existing and planned energy programs designed to improve
appliance and building shell energyefficiency.
By comparison, if the total residential energy consumption
in each year of the study period is divided by the population
in the corresponding year, the trend in per person residential
energy consumption shows a steady but modest increase
from 17GJ/person in 1990 to 20GJ/person in 2020 or a 20%
increase over the study period (Figure 15).

SECTION 3
27

Table 3: Estimated Total Occupied Residential Floor Areas (million m2)


Year

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

1986

202

155

98

54

54

18

594

1987

208

160

103

56

57

18

615

1988

214

164

109

57

60

19

10

637

1989

221

170

115

59

64

19

10

663

1990

227

174

121

61

66

20

10

685

1991

233

178

126

63

69

21

11

705

1992

240

182

133

64

72

21

11

729

1993

247

187

141

66

75

22

12

755

1994

255

193

150

68

79

22

12

785

1995

263

198

157

70

83

23

13

812

1996

270

202

163

71

86

23

13

834

1997

278

208

170

72

89

24

13

859

1998

287

214

177

74

92

24

14

888

1999

296

222

183

76

96

24

14

918

2000

305

231

191

78

100

25

15

952

2001

312

238

197

79

103

25

15

977

2002

322

247

205

81

107

26

15

1010

2003

331

255

214

83

111

26

16

1045

2004

341

264

223

86

116

27

17

1082

2005

349

273

232

88

121

27

17

1115

2006

359

281

242

90

126

28

18

1152

2007

369

290

252

91

130

29

18

1188

2008

380

298

262

93

135

29

10

18

1224

2009

390

306

271

95

139

30

10

19

1261

2010

400

315

282

97

144

30

10

19

1298

2011

411

323

292

99

149

31

11

20

1335

2012

421

332

302

101

154

31

11

20

1372

2013

432

340

313

103

158

32

11

21

1410

2014

443

349

323

105

163

33

12

21

1448

2015

453

357

334

107

168

33

12

22

1487

2016

464

366

345

109

173

34

12

22

1526

2017

475

375

356

111

178

34

13

23

1564

2018

486

384

367

112

183

35

13

23

1603

2019

497

393

378

114

188

35

13

24

1642

2020

507

401

390

116

193

36

14

24

1681

KEY RESULTS AND TREND ANALYSIS


28

Figure 14: Trends in Residential Energy Use per Household in Australia from 1990 to 2020

GJ / PER HOUSEHOLD

55

50

45

Modelled

Projected

40

35

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

30

YEAR

Figure 15: Trends in Residential Energy Use per Person in Australia from 1990 to 2020

GJ / PER PERSON

25

20

Modelled

Projected

15

10

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

YEAR

SECTION 3
29

The trends in energy consumption per household by fuel


show some interesting trends (Figure 16). At a national
level, electricity, mains gas and LPG per household remain
fairly steady from 1990 to 2020, while wood is projected
to decrease significantly, mainly due to fuel switching away
from this fuel for space heating. These trends are much more
complex when examined at the state level.

with an ongoing decline in household size), the inescapable


conclusion is that, in the absence of substantial new policy
measures, energy consumption from the residential sector
will continue to rise at a significant rate.

3.3 Breakdown by state


Table 4 and Figure 18 provide an overview of total
energy consumption by state by year. Victoria, NSW and
Queensland show steady growth over the study period.
Despite having a lower population than NSW, Victoria has the
highest energy consumption of any state. This higher than
average per household energy consumption is primarily due
to the extensive use of gas for space heating and the higher
heating load from the cooler climate. In Victoria, winters are
more severe than in NSW (or Queensland) and householders
typically space heat their entire dwelling using ducted
gasheating.

The trend by major end use is more complex as shown in


Figure 17. Electrical appliances are the only major end use
that is showing strong growth at a household level. Mains gas
space heating is fairly steady per household but is projected
to show some growth particularly from 2010 onwards. Electric
water heating, wood space heating and gas water heating are
all showing strong decreases in energy per household, the first
two due to fuel switching away to other fuel types and the latter
due to the impact of new MEPS levels on energy consumption
per appliance. Space cooling is also showing some growth,
but from a low base. Other major end uses make fairly modest
contributions to household energy consumption. Again, these
trends at a state level are much more complex.

The following five tables with associated figures detail the


energy consumption by major end use by state or territory.
The major end uses detailed are:

It could be observed that while existing and proposed energy


programs are holding the line in terms of energy use at a
household level, it is the significant increase in household
numbers (61% increase from 1990 to 2020) that is driving
the rapid growth of energy consumption of this sector as
a whole (62% increase from 1990 to 2020). If population
growth continues at present levels into the future (together

Electrical Appliances (Table 5 and Figure 19)


Water Heating (Table 6 and Figure 20)
Cooking (Table 7 and Figure 21)
Space Heating (Table 8 and Figure 22)
Space Cooling (Table 9 and Figure 23).

30
Modelled

25

Wood
LPG

20

15

10

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

KEY RESULTS AND TREND ANALYSIS


30

Electricity

Projected

Mains Gas

1990

ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY FUEL (GJ/HOUSEHOLD)

Figure 16: Trends in Fuel Energy Consumption per Household

YEAR

Table 4: Total Residential Energy Consumption in petajoules by State from 1990 to 2020
Year

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

1990

83.6

113.0

28.8

25.4

22.6

18.7

1.4

5.3

298.8

1991

82.4

110.4

29.1

24.4

22.5

17.7

1.4

5.2

293.2

1992

85.3

116.4

30.4

25.2

23.2

19.5

1.4

5.8

307.3

1993

89.4

115.9

31.3

26.3

24.9

20.6

1.4

6.5

316.2

1994

87.3

120.3

32.4

25.2

24.3

19.6

1.4

6.3

316.9

1995

92.9

132.5

34.5

26.6

26.8

20.8

1.5

6.7

342.3

1996

92.8

134.5

35.1

26.2

26.8

20.6

1.6

7.0

344.5

1997

95.0

133.4

36.8

26.8

27.4

20.5

1.7

7.2

348.9

1998

96.5

139.2

37.8

26.8

28.1

19.8

1.8

7.2

357.2

1999

97.8

137.6

38.3

27.3

28.4

20.1

1.9

7.6

358.9

2000

96.3

129.0

39.6

26.4

28.2

19.0

1.9

7.7

348.1

2001

96.4

131.1

41.1

26.8

28.4

17.8

1.9

7.8

351.4

2002

98.4

136.7

42.2

27.3

29.0

17.4

2.0

7.9

361.0

2003

97.7

133.3

43.4

27.0

28.9

16.2

2.1

8.1

356.7

2004

102.3

146.9

45.7

28.5

30.2

16.7

2.2

8.7

381.2

2005

103.7

149.0

46.6

28.4

31.5

16.6

2.2

9.1

387.1

2006

104.7

150.8

47.8

28.4

31.8

16.5

2.3

9.3

391.7

2007

105.9

152.7

49.0

28.5

32.2

16.5

2.3

9.6

396.6

2008

107.1

154.7

50.2

28.6

32.6

16.4

2.4

9.8

401.9

2009

108.5

156.7

51.5

28.8

33.0

16.4

2.4

10.0

407.3

2010

109.8

158.8

52.7

28.9

33.4

16.3

2.5

10.3

412.7

2011

110.7

160.7

53.6

29.0

33.7

16.2

2.5

10.5

417.0

2012

111.6

162.7

54.5

29.0

34.0

16.2

2.5

10.7

421.2

2013

112.5

164.8

55.4

29.1

34.2

16.1

2.6

10.9

425.6

2014

113.4

167.0

56.3

29.1

34.5

16.0

2.6

11.1

430.2

2015

114.3

169.3

57.2

29.2

34.8

16.0

2.7

11.4

434.8

2016

115.6

172.0

58.4

29.4

35.3

16.0

2.7

11.6

441.1

2017

117.0

174.8

59.7

29.5

35.8

15.9

2.8

11.9

447.6

2018

118.4

177.6

61.0

29.7

36.3

15.9

2.9

12.2

454.1

2019

119.8

180.6

62.3

29.9

36.8

15.9

2.9

12.5

460.7

2020

121.2

183.5

63.5

30.1

37.4

15.9

3.0

12.8

467.4

SECTION 3
31

Figure 17: Trends in Major End-Use Energy per Household Australia

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (GJ/HOUSEHOLD)

18
Modelled
o l

Electrical Appliances

Projected
o e

Mains Gas Space Heating

16

Wood Space Heating

14

Electrical Water heating

12

Mains Gas Water heating

10

Electricity Space Cooling


Electricity Space Heating

Mains Gas Cooking

Electricity Cooking

LPG Space Heating


Mains Gas Appliances

LPG Water heating


LPG Cooking

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

YEAR

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

Figure 18: Trends in Total Residential Energy Consumption by State from 1990 to 2020

Modelled
M
e

Projected
o e

200

NSW

180

VIC

160
140
120

SA
WA

100
TAS
80
60
40
20

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

YEAR

KEY RESULTS AND TREND ANALYSIS


32

QLD

NT
ACT

Table 5: Electrical Appliance Energy Consumption in petajoules by State from 1990 to 2020
Year

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

1990

24.4

18.0

11.9

6.1

6.4

1.9

0.6

1.1

70.5

1991

25.1

18.4

12.4

6.3

6.6

2.0

0.6

1.1

72.5

1992

25.8

18.8

13.1

6.4

6.8

2.1

0.6

1.2

74.8

1993

26.5

19.3

13.8

6.6

7.1

2.1

0.7

1.3

77.4

1994

27.3

19.9

14.6

6.8

7.5

2.2

0.7

1.3

80.2

1995

28.3

20.4

15.4

6.9

7.8

2.2

0.7

1.3

83.1

1996

29.2

20.9

16.1

7.1

8.1

2.3

0.7

1.4

85.9

1997

30.4

21.7

17.0

7.3

8.5

2.3

0.8

1.4

89.4

1998

31.7

22.6

17.9

7.5

8.9

2.4

0.8

1.5

93.3

1999

32.9

23.4

18.7

7.7

9.3

2.5

0.9

1.6

96.9

2000

34.1

24.3

19.4

8.0

9.8

2.5

0.9

1.6

100.5

2001

34.9

25.0

20.0

8.2

10.2

2.6

0.9

1.7

103.4

2002

36.2

25.9

20.7

8.5

10.6

2.6

0.9

1.7

107.1

2003

37.4

26.7

21.6

8.7

11.0

2.7

1.0

1.8

110.8

2004

38.6

27.5

22.6

9.0

11.4

2.8

1.0

1.8

114.7

2005

39.5

28.3

23.4

9.2

11.9

2.9

1.0

1.9

118.0

2006

40.4

29.0

24.3

9.3

12.3

2.9

1.1

1.9

121.2

2007

41.5

29.8

25.2

9.5

12.7

3.0

1.1

2.0

124.8

2008

42.7

30.7

26.2

9.8

13.2

3.1

1.1

2.0

128.8

2009

44.0

31.8

27.2

10.1

13.7

3.2

1.2

2.1

133.1

2010

45.3

32.8

28.3

10.3

14.2

3.2

1.2

2.1

137.5

2011

46.2

33.5

29.1

10.5

14.5

3.3

1.2

2.2

140.5

2012

47.0

34.1

29.8

10.6

14.8

3.3

1.2

2.2

143.2

2013

47.8

34.7

30.5

10.8

15.1

3.4

1.3

2.3

145.8

2014

48.6

35.2

31.2

10.9

15.4

3.4

1.3

2.3

148.3

2015

49.3

35.7

31.9

11.0

15.7

3.4

1.3

2.3

150.8

2016

50.5

36.6

32.9

11.2

16.1

3.5

1.3

2.4

154.6

2017

51.7

37.4

34.0

11.4

16.6

3.6

1.4

2.4

158.5

2018

52.8

38.3

35.0

11.6

17.0

3.6

1.4

2.5

162.2

2019

53.9

39.1

36.0

11.8

17.5

3.7

1.4

2.5

165.9

2020

55.0

39.8

37.0

12.0

17.9

3.7

1.5

2.6

169.4

SECTION 3
33

Figure 19: Electrical Appliance Energy Consumption Trends by State from 1990 to 2020

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

60

NSW
VIC

50

40

QLD
SA
WA

30

TAS
NT

20
ACT
10

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

YEAR

Figure 20: Water Heating Energy Consumption Trends by State from 1990 to 2020

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

35

30

VIC
QLD

25

20

SA
WA
TAS

15

10

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

YEAR

KEY RESULTS AND TREND ANALYSIS


34

NSW

NT
ACT

Table 6: Water Heating Energy Consumption in petajoules by State from 1990 to 2020
Year

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

1990

27.0

27.9

10.6

7.9

6.7

2.4

0.2

1.4

84.2

1991

27.3

28.1

10.8

8.0

6.9

2.4

0.2

1.4

85.2

1992

27.5

28.2

11.1

8.0

7.2

2.4

0.2

1.5

86.2

1993

27.8

28.4

11.4

8.1

7.4

2.5

0.2

1.5

87.2

1994

28.1

28.5

11.8

8.1

7.6

2.5

0.2

1.6

88.3

1995

28.4

28.6

12.0

8.0

7.8

2.5

0.2

1.6

89.2

1996

28.6

28.5

12.2

8.0

8.0

2.5

0.3

1.6

89.7

1997

28.9

28.6

12.4

7.9

8.1

2.5

0.3

1.6

90.3

1998

29.2

28.6

12.5

7.9

8.2

2.4

0.3

1.7

90.9

1999

29.5

28.8

12.7

7.8

8.4

2.4

0.3

1.7

91.6

2000

29.8

29.0

12.8

7.7

8.5

2.4

0.3

1.7

92.2

2001

29.8

29.0

12.8

7.6

8.6

2.4

0.3

1.7

92.2

2002

29.9

29.0

12.9

7.4

8.8

2.4

0.3

1.7

92.4

2003

29.9

29.0

12.9

7.4

8.8

2.4

0.3

1.7

92.3

2004

29.8

28.9

13.0

7.3

8.8

2.3

0.3

1.8

92.2

2005

29.7

28.8

13.0

7.1

8.7

2.3

0.3

1.8

91.9

2006

29.6

28.6

12.9

7.0

8.7

2.3

0.3

1.8

91.3

2007

29.5

28.4

12.8

6.9

8.6

2.3

0.3

1.8

90.7

2008

29.4

28.1

12.7

6.8

8.6

2.3

0.3

1.8

90.0

2009

29.3

27.7

12.7

6.7

8.5

2.3

0.3

1.8

89.2

2010

29.1

27.3

12.6

6.6

8.4

2.3

0.3

1.8

88.4

2011

29.0

27.0

12.5

6.5

8.3

2.3

0.3

1.8

87.6

2012

28.8

26.6

12.4

6.3

8.3

2.2

0.3

1.7

86.8

2013

28.7

26.3

12.3

6.2

8.2

2.2

0.3

1.7

86.0

2014

28.6

26.0

12.3

6.1

8.2

2.2

0.3

1.7

85.4

2015

28.5

25.7

12.2

6.0

8.1

2.2

0.3

1.7

84.9

2016

28.5

25.5

12.2

6.0

8.1

2.2

0.3

1.7

84.4

2017

28.4

25.3

12.1

5.9

8.1

2.2

0.3

1.7

84.1

2018

28.4

25.1

12.1

5.8

8.1

2.2

0.3

1.7

83.8

2019

28.4

25.0

12.1

5.8

8.1

2.2

0.3

1.7

83.6

2020

28.4

24.9

12.1

5.7

8.1

2.2

0.3

1.7

83.5

SECTION 3
35

Table 7: Cooking Energy Consumption in petajoules by State from 1990 to 2020


Year

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

1990

4.8

4.2

2.3

1.4

1.5

0.3

0.1

0.2

14.8

1991

4.9

4.3

2.4

1.4

1.5

0.4

0.1

0.2

15.1

1992

5.0

4.4

2.4

1.4

1.6

0.4

0.1

0.2

15.5

1993

5.1

4.5

2.5

1.4

1.6

0.4

0.1

0.2

15.9

1994

5.2

4.5

2.6

1.5

1.7

0.4

0.1

0.2

16.2

1995

5.3

4.6

2.7

1.5

1.7

0.4

0.1

0.3

16.6

1996

5.4

4.6

2.8

1.5

1.8

0.4

0.1

0.3

16.8

1997

5.4

4.7

2.8

1.5

1.8

0.4

0.1

0.3

17.0

1998

5.5

4.8

2.9

1.5

1.8

0.4

0.1

0.3

17.3

1999

5.6

4.8

3.0

1.5

1.9

0.4

0.1

0.3

17.6

2000

5.7

4.9

3.0

1.6

1.9

0.4

0.1

0.3

17.9

2001

5.8

5.0

3.1

1.6

1.9

0.4

0.1

0.3

18.1

2002

5.8

5.0

3.1

1.6

1.9

0.4

0.1

0.3

18.4

2003

5.9

5.1

3.2

1.6

2.0

0.4

0.2

0.3

18.6

2004

6.0

5.2

3.2

1.6

2.0

0.4

0.2

0.3

18.9

2005

6.0

5.2

3.3

1.7

2.1

0.4

0.2

0.3

19.1

2006

6.1

5.3

3.4

1.7

2.1

0.4

0.2

0.3

19.4

2007

6.2

5.3

3.4

1.7

2.1

0.4

0.2

0.3

19.7

2008

6.3

5.4

3.5

1.7

2.2

0.4

0.2

0.3

19.9

2009

6.3

5.5

3.6

1.7

2.2

0.4

0.2

0.3

20.2

2010

6.4

5.5

3.6

1.7

2.2

0.4

0.2

0.3

20.4

2011

6.5

5.6

3.7

1.7

2.3

0.4

0.2

0.3

20.7

2012

6.6

5.6

3.8

1.7

2.3

0.4

0.2

0.3

20.9

2013

6.7

5.7

3.8

1.7

2.3

0.4

0.2

0.3

21.2

2014

6.7

5.7

3.9

1.8

2.4

0.4

0.2

0.4

21.4

2015

6.8

5.8

4.0

1.8

2.4

0.4

0.2

0.4

21.7

2016

6.9

5.8

4.0

1.8

2.4

0.4

0.2

0.4

21.9

2017

7.0

5.9

4.1

1.8

2.5

0.4

0.2

0.4

22.2

2018

7.1

5.9

4.2

1.8

2.5

0.4

0.2

0.4

22.4

2019

7.1

6.0

4.3

1.8

2.5

0.4

0.2

0.4

22.7

2020

7.2

6.0

4.3

1.8

2.6

0.4

0.2

0.4

22.9

KEY RESULTS AND TREND ANALYSIS


36

Figure 21: Cooking Energy Consumption Trends by State from 1990 to 2020

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

8
7
6

NSW
VIC
QLD
SA

5
WA
4
3
2

TAS
NT
ACT

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

YEAR

Figure 22: Space Heating Energy Consumption Trends by State from 1990 to 2020

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

120

NSW
VIC

100
QLD
80

60

SA
WA
TAS

40

20

NT
ACT

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

YEAR

SECTION 3
37

Table 8: Space Heating Energy Consumption in petajoules by State from 1990 to 2020
Year

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

1990

26.6

62.6

3.4

9.4

7.7

14.0

0.0

2.6

126.2

1991

24.0

59.3

2.8

8.2

7.1

13.0

0.0

2.4

116.7

1992

26.2

64.8

3.1

8.9

7.4

14.7

0.0

2.9

128.0

1993

29.1

63.3

2.9

9.8

8.4

15.7

0.0

3.5

132.7

1994

25.9

67.2

2.7

8.5

7.3

14.6

0.0

3.2

129.4

1995

30.1

78.5

3.5

9.6

9.1

15.7

0.0

3.5

150.1

1996

28.8

80.2

3.1

9.2

8.6

15.5

0.0

3.7

149.0

1997

29.3

78.0

3.7

9.6

8.7

15.4

0.0

3.8

148.5

1998

28.8

82.8

3.1

9.4

8.8

14.5

0.0

3.8

151.2

1999

28.6

80.1

2.6

9.6

8.3

14.8

0.0

4.0

148.0

2000

25.5

70.2

3.1

8.4

7.3

13.7

0.0

4.1

132.3

2001

23.8

71.4

3.2

8.3

6.7

12.5

0.0

4.1

130.0

2002

24.8

76.4

3.1

9.3

7.2

12.0

0.0

4.2

136.9

2003

22.3

71.9

3.2

8.3

6.3

10.7

0.0

4.2

126.9

2004

24.9

84.6

3.1

9.6

7.0

11.1

0.0

4.7

145.0

2005

25.4

85.9

3.3

9.2

7.7

11.0

0.0

5.0

147.6

2006

25.3

87.1

3.2

9.1

7.6

10.9

0.0

5.2

148.5

2007

25.2

88.4

3.2

9.1

7.5

10.8

0.0

5.4

149.5

2008

25.1

89.7

3.2

9.0

7.4

10.6

0.0

5.6

150.6

2009

25.0

90.9

3.2

9.0

7.3

10.5

0.0

5.8

151.7

2010

24.9

92.3

3.2

9.0

7.3

10.4

0.0

5.9

152.9

2011

24.9

93.8

3.2

9.0

7.2

10.2

0.0

6.1

154.4

2012

24.9

95.5

3.2

8.9

7.2

10.1

0.0

6.3

156.1

2013

24.9

97.3

3.2

8.9

7.1

10.0

0.0

6.5

157.9

2014

24.9

99.2

3.2

8.9

7.1

10.0

0.0

6.7

159.9

2015

25.0

101.1

3.2

8.9

7.1

9.9

0.0

6.9

162.0

2016

25.0

103.1

3.2

8.9

7.1

9.8

0.0

7.1

164.2

2017

25.1

105.2

3.2

9.0

7.1

9.7

0.0

7.3

166.6

2018

25.1

107.4

3.2

9.0

7.0

9.7

0.0

7.6

169.0

2019

25.2

109.5

3.2

9.0

7.0

9.6

0.0

7.8

171.4

2020

25.3

111.8

3.2

9.1

7.0

9.5

0.0

8.0

173.9

KEY RESULTS AND TREND ANALYSIS


38

Table 9: Space Cooling Energy Consumption in petajoules by State from 1990 to 2020
Year

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

1990

0.8

0.3

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.0

0.4

0.0

3.0

1991

1.2

0.3

0.7

0.6

0.4

0.0

0.4

0.0

3.6

1992

0.8

0.2

0.7

0.4

0.3

0.0

0.4

0.0

2.8

1993

0.9

0.4

0.6

0.4

0.3

0.0

0.4

0.0

3.1

1994

0.9

0.3

0.7

0.4

0.3

0.0

0.4

0.0

2.8

1995

0.8

0.4

0.8

0.5

0.4

0.0

0.4

0.0

3.4

1996

0.8

0.2

1.0

0.4

0.3

0.0

0.5

0.0

3.2

1997

0.9

0.5

0.9

0.5

0.4

0.0

0.5

0.0

3.8

1998

1.2

0.4

1.3

0.5

0.5

0.0

0.6

0.0

4.5

1999

1.1

0.5

1.3

0.6

0.6

0.0

0.6

0.0

4.8

2000

1.3

0.7

1.4

0.7

0.6

0.0

0.5

0.0

5.2

2001

2.2

0.7

2.0

1.2

1.0

0.0

0.6

0.0

7.7

2002

1.8

0.4

2.5

0.5

0.5

0.0

0.6

0.0

6.3

2003

2.2

0.7

2.6

1.0

0.9

0.0

0.6

0.0

8.0

2004

3.0

0.7

3.8

1.1

1.0

0.0

0.7

0.1

10.4

2005

3.1

0.7

3.7

1.2

1.1

0.0

0.7

0.1

10.5

2006

3.3

0.8

4.1

1.2

1.2

0.0

0.7

0.1

11.3

2007

3.5

0.8

4.4

1.3

1.2

0.0

0.7

0.1

11.9

2008

3.7

0.8

4.6

1.3

1.3

0.0

0.7

0.1

12.5

2009

3.8

0.9

4.9

1.3

1.3

0.0

0.7

0.1

13.0

2010

4.0

0.9

5.0

1.3

1.3

0.0

0.8

0.1

13.4

2011

4.1

0.9

5.2

1.4

1.4

0.0

0.8

0.1

13.9

2012

4.3

0.9

5.4

1.4

1.4

0.0

0.8

0.1

14.3

2013

4.4

0.9

5.6

1.4

1.5

0.0

0.8

0.1

14.7

2014

4.5

0.9

5.7

1.4

1.5

0.0

0.8

0.1

15.1

2015

4.7

0.9

5.9

1.4

1.5

0.0

0.9

0.1

15.5

2016

4.8

1.0

6.1

1.5

1.6

0.1

0.9

0.1

15.9

2017

4.9

1.0

6.3

1.5

1.6

0.1

0.9

0.1

16.3

2018

5.0

1.0

6.5

1.5

1.7

0.1

0.9

0.1

16.8

2019

5.1

1.0

6.7

1.5

1.7

0.1

1.0

0.1

17.2

2020

5.2

1.0

6.9

1.6

1.7

0.1

1.0

0.1

17.7

SECTION 3
39

3.4 Appliances
Appliances and equipment represent a large range of diverse
products in households. Many of these do not use substantial
amounts of energy, but there are a few end uses that are of
particular concern. Figure 24 provides details of trends in
national electrical appliance energy usage by type ofappliance.
The most important observations from Figure 24 are:
Television energy consumption is set to grow very rapidly
(noting that this projection does not include MEPS levels
or energy labelling proposed for 2010 as the levels are not
yet finalised). This is being driven by the growth in LCD
screen sales which will dominate the market within a few
years and the average screen size is increasing rapidly.
Refrigerator and freezer energy is declining due to the
impact of 2005 MEPS and the ongoing pressure from
energy labelling to reduce energy consumption.
Computers and related equipment will expand significantly
(although most of the growth in ownership has already
occurred, but there is potential through increased
energyefficiency).
Other standby is likely to grow (noting that this does
not include standby for individual products that are
separately modelled). This is of significant concern as the
mandatory one-watt target has already been modelled for
mostproducts.
Lighting is likely to grow significantly even with the
incandescent lamp phase out which has been included in
the projections.
Some of the underlying issues by end use are discussed
in Section 4. More detail on modelling inputs is provided
inSection 6.

3.5 Cooking
Cooking energy contributed to only 5% of total energy
consumption. The trend is for increasing gas cook-tops
and increasing electric ovens, so energy is fairly evenly split
between mains gas and electricity, with 10% LPG. However,
the trends suggest that total electricity consumption will
remain fairly steady (ovens increasing and cook-tops
decreasing) while the gas consumption (natural gas and
LPG) is forecast to grow slightly (Figure 25), mainly through
increased use of gas cook-tops.

3.6 Water heating


Water heating is a difficult end use to model as there are a
wide range of possible water heater types. Solar systems are
complex and have substantial energy interactions with both the
user and the climate, which are difficult to model. There are a
number of state-based programs that are likely to have a large
impact on future ownership trends for the various water heater
types. These issues are discussed in more detail in Section 6.

KEY RESULTS AND TREND ANALYSIS


40

Figure 26 shows overall trends by water heater type. The


analysis undertaken for this project is innovative in that the
solar contribution for each solar water heater type is explicitly
modelled and included in the total water heater energy (this is
not included in the fuel consumption totals for Australia, shown
as orange band at the top). By 2020 the solar contribution is
projected to be nearly 8 PJ. This is despite the very modest
increase in solar share forecast in the base case to 2020.
The projected hot water use per household is expected
to decline gradually over time with declining household
size and as improvements in water efficiency of clothes
washers6 and shower heads take effect. Historically, electric
water heaters have dominated the water heater market,
but in recent years their share has declined and this trend
is expected to continue. Energy consumption for electric
storage water heaters is also continuing to decline slightly
due to the impacts of both the 1999 and 2005 MEPS. Gas
water heaters appear to have constant energy consumption
over time, despite an increase in ownership. This is
because efficiency improvements from MEPS (assumed to
be introduced in 2008) more or less counteract growth in
household numbers as well as fuel switching from electricity
to gas. Solar water heaters are projected to grow and the
solar contribution is substantially larger than the boost energy
required to supplement these water heaters.

3.7 Space conditioning


3.7.1

Space heating

Space heating is one of the largest single end uses in the


residential sector in Australia and currently accounts for 38%
of total energy consumption (2007). The majority of the energy
growth has been in mains gas. Victoria dominates national gas
space heating energy consumption and there is a significant
trend from room heating to central ducted space heating
(mainly in Victoria) which has a higher zoning level and hence
higher energy consumption per household. Wood as a heating
fuel is declining slightly, although it is still significant. Electricity
plays a small role in space heating (around 3.4% of total
energy, 9% of space heating energy) although there is a shift
from resistive heating to reverse-cycle air conditioning (heat
pumps) within the electric fuel type, which suggests that the
share of useful energy supplied by electricity for space heating
is growing somewhat (the nominal efficiency of a heat pump
is 2.5 to three times that of a resistive heater which is virtually
100%). However, electric heating is usually used in milder
climates (apart from Tasmania) so the overall contribution to
total energy ismodest.
6

The share of front-loader (drum) clothes washer sales is approaching 50%


in 2007. This will reduce the hot water used for warm washing as the
total water consumption for this type is usually much lower than many top
loaders, but also because in 2006 only 50% of front-loading models had
the capability to be connected to hot and cold water supplies (meaning
that any water heating is done using the electricity supply rather than the
water heater). See Section 6 for more discussion.

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

Figure 23: Space Cooling Energy Consumption Trends by State from 1990 to 2020

NSW

VIC

QLD
SA

5
WA
4
TAS
3
2

NT
ACT

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

YEAR

Figure 24: Trends in Electrical Appliance Energy by Type Australia

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

Miscell.
Lighting
Other Sby
Kettles
Waterbed
Spas
Pools
Misc. ITU
Misc. ITS
Laptops
Monitors
PC
Games
Home ent
STB PAY
STB FTA
DVD
VCR
TV
Microwave
DW
CD
CW front
CW top
FZ
RF

YEAR

SECTION 3
41

The impact of weather from year-to-year on energy


consumption is quite marked for gas and wood, but less
obvious for electric space heating and heat pumps, partly
because these tend to be used more in milder climates with
lower overall heating loads, but also because of the lower
zoning levels for these types of heaters. Figure 27 depicts
the trends in space heating energy. Note that after 2004
the default AccuRate weather input file has been used for
every year from 2005 to 2020 (hence the smooth curve after
thisdate).

Air conditioner ownership was almost flat through the


1990s, but from 1999 the ownership increased rapidly in
most states. This rapid growth in ownership resulted in
a commensurate growth in energy consumption, a trend
expected to continue through to the end of the study period
(Figure 29). The majority of units that make up the stock
are split system (non-ducted) reverse cycle (the units make
up the majority of the type RRCC). At present, total air
conditioner sales are about one million units per year (noting
that about one-third of these are commercial-sector sales).

Unlike other end uses examined in this study, space


conditioning energy consumption is climate sensitive and
as such varies significantly from state-to-state. For space
heating, it is the cooler climates that generally dominate.
Victoria, with a smaller population than NSW, accounts for
a 59% share of national space heating energy consumption
in 2007 compared with 17% for NSW (Figure 28). Tasmania
with only 2.5 % of all households accounts for 7% of the
space heating energy consumption. Victoria and Tasmania
exhibit similar space heating energy consumption rates
per household but Tasmania is a colder climate compared
toVictoria.

As with space heating, space cooling energy consumption


is climate sensitive and as such varies significantly from
state-to-state. For space cooling, it is the warmer climates
that generally dominate. In 2007, Queensland, with a smaller
population than NSW, accounted for a 36% share of space
cooling energy consumption compared to 29% for NSW
(Figure 30).

This apparent anomaly is mainly a result of the fact that


Victorian households generally demand higher standards
of heating. Over 40% of Victorian households used central
ducted gas heating in 2007 compared to virtually none
in Tasmania. Tasmanian households do use a significant
amount of wood heating (34.5% of homes in 2007 compared
to 10% in Victoria) but taken together these two forms of
whole house heating are significantly higher in Victoria (52%)
compared to Tasmania (35%). The other heating types
prevalent in Tasmania are not capable of whole house heating
in most cases and so zoning factors reduce the estimated
totalenergy.

3.7.2

Space cooling

Space cooling is a product that attracts much attention


from energy policy makers, but in fact is only responsible
for a small share of total energy consumption (about 3% of
total energy and 8.7% of electricity consumption in 2007).
One of the issues that receive significant attention is their
contribution to electricity supply system peak loads. However,
this study does not examine that issue. Energy consumption
for air conditioning is dominated by Queensland, with NSW
also using significant energy. Most other states have relatively
small total energy consumption for air conditioning over the
projection period, despite large increases in penetration
and ownership. This is due to the very modest cooling
requirements in these other states.

KEY RESULTS AND TREND ANALYSIS


42

3.7.3

Building shell efficiency

The national trend for building shell efficiency (ie total potential
space conditioning load per square metre of floor area),
shows a modest but steady improvement over the study
period, down from 280 MJ/m2 to approximately 200 MJ/m2
(Figure 31).
The national residential building shell efficiency improvement
trend is being driven by policy initiatives that commenced
in Victoria and ACT in 1990 and by 2005 had expanded to
include all states through the BCA.
Unfortunately over the study period the rate of increase in
average floor area has outpaced the rate of improvement in
building shell efficiency to the extent that on a per household
basis the potential space conditioning load (ie whole house
heating and cooling in accordance with the default schedules
of operation in the AccuRate software) is projected to
increase from about 30 GJ to 35 GJ per household per
annum (Figure 31) (secondary y axis, right, blue line).

Figure 25: Trends in Cooking Energy by Type Australia

COOKING ENERGY (PJ)

25
Modelled
o
d

Projected
r
e

Cook LPG
Oven LPG

20

Cook gas
Oven gas

15
Cook El

10

Oven El

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

YEAR

HOT WATER ENERGY (PJ)

Figure 26: Trends in Water Heater Energy by Type Australia


100

Solar GI A

90

Solar GS A

80

Solar HP A
Solar El A

70
60

Solar GS B

50

Solar HP B

40
Modelled
e

Projected
r
e

30
20
10

Solar El B
LPG Inst
LPG Stor
Gas Inst
Gas Stor
Electric

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

0
1986

Solar GI B

YEAR

SECTION 3
43

Figure 27: Trends in Space Heating Energy by Fuel Type Australia

HEATING ENERGY (PJ)

200
Modelled
M
e

Projected
t

180

Wood O
Wood C

160
140

RoomLPG

120

Ductgas

100

Room Gas

80

DuctRCH

60
40
20

RRCH
El Resist

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

YEAR

Figure 28: Space Heating Share by State 2007

NT
0%
TAS
7%

ACT
4%

NSW
17%

WA
5%
SA
6%
QLD
2%

VIC
59%

KEY RESULTS AND TREND ANALYSIS


44

Figure 29: Trends in Space Cooling Energy by Type Australia

COOLING ENERGY (PJ)

20
18
Modelled
M
e

Pr jectedd

Evap
DuctC

16
14
12

RCOC
RRCC

10
8
6
4
2

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

YEAR

Figure 30: Space Cooling Energy by Type State 2008

NT
6%

ACT
1%

TAS
0%
NSW
29%
WA
10%

SA
11%

VIC
7%

QLD
36%

SECTION 3
45

400

40

350

35

300

30

250

25

200

20

150

15

100

10
Modelledd
M

50

Projected
r
d

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

YEAR

KEY RESULTS AND TREND ANALYSIS


46

SHELL EFFICIENCY (GJ/H HOLD)

SHELL EFFICIENCY (MJ/M2)

Figure 31: Trends in Building Shell Efficiency in Australia from 1986 to 2020

MJ/m2
GJ/H Hold
Trend MJ/m2
Trend GJ/H Hold

SECTION 4

RESULTS BY END USE

4 Results by end use

uses is projected to decline under the influence of various


factors, including the impact of labelling and various MEPS
programs, together with the expected increasing contribution
of solar energy due to projected ownership increases in solar
water heaters arising from recent changes in state policies for
new homes.

4.1 Overview
This section provides selected details of energy demand by
individual end use. Generally, end-use data in this section
is presented at a national level, however, the data at a state
level is presented in appendices of this report.

Of the remaining end uses, space cooling is notable for its


rapid growth over the study period, albeit from a modest base.

National trends in energy consumption by major end use


(Figure 32) indicate that electrical appliances dominate total
energy consumption throughout the study period. Electrical
appliances not only represent the largest single end use in
terms of energy consumption but have shown a strong growth
trend in relative terms over the whole study period, rising
from approximately one-quarter of all energy use in 1990 to
one-third of all energy use projected for 2020. Given the high
greenhouse gas coefficient for electricity production in most
states, this means that electrical appliances dominate total
greenhouse emissions from residential energy consumption.
Gas space heating is the next most significant end use,
which has also shown significant growth over the study
period. This growth is partly due to an expansion of the gas
reticulation network and also the increase in the share of
whole-house gas ducted heating (especially in Victoria). The
increase in the use of gas for space heating also mirrors the
decline in wood space heating energy over the same period.

More details on the attributes and ownership by appliance


type, together with other relevant data used for modelling
inputs, are available in Section 6.

4.2 Space cooling equipment


Since the late 1990s energy use by air conditioners has
shown significant growth (Figure 33). This growth is being
driven by substantial increases in ownership in all states,
particularly of reverse-cycle room conditioners (primarily splittype systems).
In 1986 space cooling energy consumption accounted for
approximately 3 PJ, this is estimated to have increased to
approximately 10.5 PJ by 2005 and is projected to continue
to increase to nearly 18.0 PJ by 2020.
Between 1994 and 2005, ABS survey data shows that
ownership of all forms of air conditioner units rose from 0.395
to 0.762, ie almost double in about 10 years (approximately
4% increase per year). The drivers behind this growth have

Electric and gas water heating are the other two major end
uses of energy. Energy consumption for both of these end

Figure 32: Trends in Major End-Use Energy Consumption

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

180
Modelled

Projected

160

Electrical Appliances
Mains Gas Space Heating
Wood Space Heating

140
120
100

Electrical Water heating


Mains Gas Water heating
Electricity Space Cooling
Electricity Space Heating

80
60
40

Mains Gas Cooking


Electricity Cooking
LPG Space Heating
Mains Gas Appliances

20

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

YEAR

RESULTS BY END USE


48

LPG Water heating


LPG Cooking

perceptions that things are getting hotter and that air


conditioning is required to cope with these changes.

not been well researched but evidence suggests the following


factors may be significant:
A significant decline in the real cost of air conditioning
systems (air conditioning is no longer seen as a luxury)
combined with general economic prosperity over the period
have made air conditioners more affordable. To some extent
this has been driven by the surge in low-cost products from
China and other parts of Asia. However, data suggests that
price falls over the past five years are now stabilising.
Relatively low fuel costs have meant that air conditioners
are also seen as affordable to operate. In many areas
without natural gas and only moderate heating loads they
are probably the most cost-effective form of conventional
heating readily available.
Housing designs over the past few decades have tended
to minimise or eliminate shading to walls and windows
thereby making these dwellings less comfortable during
the summer. Dr Alan Pears, in his review of the draft report,
also suggested that the decline in summer comfort levels
may be driven by the growth in the proportion of twostorey homes with insulated walls but poorly located and
managed glazing. Top floor rooms are typically lightweight
and have no linkage to the ground making them more
sensitive to solar gains.
Climate conditions over the past 10 years have included
many of the hottest summers on record. Hot weather
tends to drive impulse purchase of air conditioners. While
the actual year-to-year weather will account for some
of the increase in energy consumption, it is increases in
ownership that are the main driver. Ironically high levels of
awareness of climate change may have fuelled consumer

The large increases in ownership have effectively


overshadowed the improvements in efficiency derived
from labelling and MEPS schemes for air conditioners.
MEPS was first introduced in 2001 with increases in
stringency in 2004, 2006 and 2007 all factored into
theestimates.
The relatively strong growth in ducted systems over the
study period is of some concern. This suggests that a
growing number of householders are demanding high levels
of summer comfort throughout the entire dwelling. Such a
trend that moves away from selected zone cooling (which has
been the norm in Australia to date) to whole house cooling
could significantly increase energy demand for cooling in
thefuture.

4.3 Space heating equipment


In 1986 space heating usage accounted for approximately
126 PJ, this is estimated to have increased to approximately
147 PJ by 2005 and is projected to continue to increase to
nearly 174 PJ by 2020.
Since the commencement of the study period, ducted gas
heating has continued to grow in significance, to the point
where it now accounts for the single largest share of space
heating energy use, a trend that is expected to continue until
at least the end of the study period (Figure 34). This growth

COOLING ENERGY (PJ)

Figure 33: Energy Consumption (PJ) Space Cooling in Australia from 1986 to 2020

Modelled

Projected
o e

RRCC

RCOC

DuctC

6
Evap
5
4
3
2
1

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

YEAR

SECTION 4
49

4.4 Water heating

has been largely at the expense of wood heating (particularly


open combustion)7 and room gas heating.

In 1986 water heater usage accounted for approximately 84


PJ, this is estimated to have increased to approximately 92 PJ
by 2005 but is projected decline slowly to 83.5 PJ by 2020.

As with space cooling it appears that householders are


demanding higher standards of comfort, particularly in terms
of the extent of space heating within their households (ie
whole house rather than room only heating). This trend has
been facilitated to some extent by the continued expansion
of the natural gas network and the relatively low cost of
naturalgas.

The most significant trend over the study period for water
heater energy use is the shift away from resistive electric
heating towards natural gas or combinations of gas or
electric with solar boosting of some description (Figure 35).
Increased natural gas use has coincided with the expansion
of the natural gas network. When available, householders
tend to show a preference for natural gas water heating over
electric storage. Gas offers quick recovery rates and over
recent years the cost of off-peak electricity has generally
increased at a much faster rate than the cost of gas.
Instantaneous gas units have also gained favour because of
their compact size and their capacity to provide a continuous
flow of hot water.

As building shells improve over time, it may be more


attractive for some households to use reverse-cycle air
conditioners for heating in preference to gas, especially in
milder climates, as the capital cost is often lower, running
costs are low, and heating performance of reverse-cycle air
conditioners is also improving. Where gas is not available,
reverse-cycle air conditioning offers the lowest operating cost
conventional heating system available (Pears 2007).

Solar boosted water heating has also gained favour over


recent years (although the installed base was relatively
small up to 2003). An increased trend towards the use of
solar boosting is expected for the remainder of the study
period. This trend is being driven largely by initiatives at the
state level, particularly the provision of rebate schemes and
requirements for new homes. Some of these schemes are
also boosting the stock of heat pump type water heaters
which may become more significant over time as the capital
cost of such units is likely to fall.

Dr Alan Pears has suggested that the emergence of the pellet heater
(very low pollution, more controllable) and the drive for zero emission
housing in UK suggests that wood heating (from sustainable sources,
using pellet heating) could re-emerge as a key energy source in colder
regions as it is in the UK now. Given the high cost of LPG and changes
in gas and gas distribution pricing, this option could be financially attractive
in the future.

HEATING ENERGY (PJ)

Figure 34: Energy Consumption (PJ) Space Heating in Australia from 1986 to 2020

Modelled
o

Projected
e

100

Wood C

90

Room Gas

80
70

Ductgas

60
50
40

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

RESULTS BY END USE

RoomLPG
RRCH

20

DuctRCH

YEAR

El Resist

30

10

50

Wood O

The application of minimum energy performance standards


(1999 and 2005 for electric and 2008 for gas), existing and
emerging state and BCA requirements mandating the use of
lower greenhouse intensive technologies (GWA 2007b) and
the various incentive schemes designed to encourage greater
use of solar and heat pump technologies all combine to result
in an overall downward trend in total energy consumption for
water heaters from 2002 to 2020.

A greater trend towards the eating of meals outside the home


(restaurants etc) may temper future demand to some degree,
but no downward trend in the primary demand for cooking
has been modelled in this study due to lack of data.
However, if such a trend does in fact exist then the effect
would simply be to shift energy consumption to the
commercial sector.

4.5 Cooking products


4.5.1

The increased use of gas is at the expense of electricity.


While this switch of fuel does not reduce total energy
demand, it is expected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Cook-tops

Relatively strong growth in energy consumption for cook-tops


is projected over the study period (Figure 36). This is largely
driven by the growth in the number of households over the
same period. No improvement in the efficiency of cooktops is expected over the study period, although a small
improvement in standby power consumption is expected with
the introduction of the minimum mandatory one watt target
by 2012. Apart from standby, there are no energy programs
directly covering major cooking appliances.
The most significant trend is the shift away from electric
cook-tops towards gas, particularly natural gas. Even
LPG is growing despite the fact that it is now generally
more expensive to operate than electricity (mostly used
in households where natural gas is not available). The
preference for gas over electricity is likely to be driven by the
greater availability of natural gas and a general preference
amongst householders for cook-tops that use gas (improved
control and performance).

4.5.2

Ovens

Relatively strong growth in energy consumption for ovens


is projected over the study period (Figure 37). This is largely
driven by the growth in the number of households over
the same period. No improvement in the efficiency of gas
ovens is expected over the study period, although, a small
improvement in standby power consumption is expected with
the introduction of the minimum mandatory one watt target
by 2012. A small improvement in electric oven heat losses
isprojected.
The preference for electric ovens compared to gas is
expected to continue throughout the study period. In contrast
to cook-tops, there is a significant consumer preference
towards electric ovens away from gas ovens due to improved
performance and versatility. The preferred combination is now
a gas cook-top and an electric oven.

Figure 35: Energy Consumption (PJ) Water Heaters by Fuel in Australia from 1986 to 2020

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

50

Electricity

45
Gas storage
40
35

Gas
Instantaneous

30
LPG
25
20

Solar
Contribution

15
10
5

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

YEAR

SECTION 4
51

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

Figure 36: Energy Consumption (PJ) Cook-tops in Australia from 1986 to 2020
9.0

Cook Electric

8.0

Cook Gas

7.0

Cook LPG

6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

0.0

YEAR

Figure 37: Energy Consumption (PJ) Ovens in Australia from 1986 to 2020

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

6.0

5.0

Oven Gas
Oven LPG

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

0.0

YEAR

RESULTS BY END USE


52

Oven Electric

As with cook-tops, a greater trend towards the eating of


meals outside the home may be tempering demand to some
degree but this has not been modelled due to lack of data.

4.6 Major appliances


4.6.1

Clothes dryers

Clothes dryer energy use is expected to show modest but


steady growth over the study period. In 1986 clothes dryer
usage accounted for slightly less than 2 PJ, by 2020 this is
projected to increase to almost 3 PJ (Figure 38). This growth
rate is slightly below the rate of growth in the number of
households. The penetration of dryers is now fairly steady in
most states.
Since the early 1990s the efficiency of new clothes dryers
has improved only marginally. Using the current star rating
algorithm the average star rating of new clothes dryers
increased from 1.52 in 1993 to 1.59 in 2005 (EES 2006b).
These increases are primarily due to an increase in market
share of auto-sensing dryers.
The market share of auto-sensing dryers has increased
significantly from 10% in 1993 to 44% in 2005. Over the
same period average load capacity has been static.

4.6.2

The energy usage reported in this study for clothes washers


includes only the plug (electricity) load and does not include
any energy in imported hot water from external water heaters8.
Since the early 1990s the average energy efficiency of new
clothes washers (including imported energy in the form of
hot water) has improved by approximately 20% (EES 2006b).
This improvement is largely attributable to a significant
increase in the proportion of front-load (drum) machines
compared to top-loading machines. In 2006, 40% of all new
washing machines sold in Australia were front loaders (drum
machines). Prior to this, front loaders accounted for only 13%
of sales from 1997 to 2002 up from just 8% prior to that.
While front-loading machines are on average more energy
and water efficient than top loaders, about half of these
machines have no option other than to heat their water
internally for warm washing programs (they have only a
single cold water connection)9. This means that the energy
use as reported in Figure 39 for front loaders includes a
significant proportion of energy used for water heating that
is not included in the figures for top loaders (top loaders
almost invariably import their hot water and have no internal
heater). This means that the apparently large increase in
clothes washer energy consumption over recent years is
actually being offset to some degree by a commensurate
decrease in energy consumption by water heaters. However,
a complicating factor is that many front-loading washers have

Clothes washers

Clothes washer energy use is projected to show strong


growth over the study period. In 1986 clothes washer
usage accounted for slightly more than 1 PJ, by 2020 this is
projected to increase to more than 3 PJ (Figure 39).

Note: Energy star rating calculations and comparative energy


consumption and the energy label include the energy imported into the
clothes washer in the form of water heated in external water heaters.

The proportion of front loaders sold with dual (hot and cold) water
connections has fallen from 70% in 2002 to 50% in 2006.

Figure 38: Energy Consumption (PJ) Clothes Dryers in Australia from 1986 to 2020

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

0.0

YEAR

SECTION 4
53

4.6.4

no option for the user to select a true cold wash program.


That is, they have no program options that do not include at
least some degree of internal water heating (often to 30oC
is the coldest temperature program available). This is an
unfortunate development given the historical popularity of
cold washing in Australian households (approximately 70% of
washes (ABS4602) (refer also to Section 6 for more details).

4.6.3

Refrigerators and freezers

Refrigerator and freezer energy use grew slowly at the


start of the study period but is now starting to decline. In
1986 refrigerators and freezers usage together accounted
for approximately 26 PJ, by 2020 this is projected to have
decreased to approximately 24 PJ (Figure 41). This decrease
is despite an increase in total stock (refrigerators and freezers)
from approximately 10 million units in 1986 to an estimated
17 million units by 2020 (70% increase).

Dishwashers

Dishwasher energy use is projected to show strong growth


over the study period. In 1986 clothes washer usage
accounted for slightly more than 1 PJ, by 2020 this is
projected to increase to approximately 3 PJ (Figure 40).

Since the early 1990s the average energy consumption of


new refrigerators and freezers has improved significantly, with
a 40% reduction from 1993 to 2006 (EES 2006b). These
improvements have been driven by both the energy labelling
program and by the introduction of MEPS requirements in
1999 followed by more stringent levels in 2005. The 2005
MEPS levels will continue to place downward pressure on
energy growth for these products over the study period10.

Since the early 1990s the average energy and water


consumption of new dishwashers has decreased by 40%
(EES 2006b). These improvements in efficiency have however
been more than offset by a significant increase in the number
of households, together with a steady and ongoing increase
in ownership of dishwashers.

4.6.5

Ownership since 1986 (19.8%) had more than doubled by


2005 (41.5%) and this is further expected to increase to more
than 60% by 2020. Further efficiency gains over the coming
years to 2020 are expected to be modest, hence a continued
strong growth in energy use is projected.

Microwaves

Microwave oven energy use has been growing rapidly since


the start of the study period but is now reaching a plateau. In
1986 microwave usage accounted for less than 0.5 PJ, this is
estimated to have increased to approximately 2.5 PJ by 2005
and is projected to remain steady until 2020 (Figure 42).

10 Monica Oliphant has observed that As custom built kitchen makeovers/


renovations increase, refrigerators can become boxed into a small space
with poor ventilation. In the absence of regulations for builders and
kitchen designers regarding this aspect, significant increases in the energy
consumption of these products in the field could be the outcome.

Figure 39: Energy Consumption (PJ) Clothes Washers (CW) in Australia from 1986 to 2020

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

0.0

YEAR

RESULTS BY END USE


54

CW top
CW front

The main drivers for the increase in energy consumption


have been, to a lesser extent, the increase in the number of
households but more importantly the rapid rise in penetration
of microwave ovens. Penetration since 1986 has increased
from 30% to 91% in 2005.
Interestingly, about half of the energy consumption of
these products is while in standby mode(s). Given that
there is limited scope for further growth in ownership likely,
the introduction of a standby MEPS (one watt in 2012) is
expected to limit projected energy growth from 2005 to 2020
(this is included in the baseline estimates).

4.7 Information technology


products
4.7.1

Computers

Personal computer and laptop energy use has been growing


rapidly since the start of the study period but is now slowing
to a steady growth rate. In 1986 personal computer and
laptop energy usage was negligible, this is estimated to have
increased to nearly 3 PJ by 2005 and is projected to continue
to rise to almost 6 PJ by 2020 (Figure 43).
The main drivers for the increase in energy consumption
havebeen:
An increase in the number of households, but most
importantly the rapid increase in ownership of personal
computer and laptops over the study period. Ownership
since 1986 (<0.01) had risen to 0.87 for personal

computers and 0.50 for laptops by 2005. Ownership is


projected to rise to nominally 1.25 for personal computers
and 0.65 for laptops by 2020.
There is some conflicting data regarding computer
ownership in homes some studies put the value at much
higher levels.
For personal computers, on mode power consumption
has virtually doubled from approximately 50 W to more
than 50 W at present. With the advent of more powerful
processors, this may continue to rise. But new low-energy
variants (driven by demand for use in laptop computers)
are now being used in some desktop systems, so future
energy trends are not clear. Future labelling and MEPS
programs for these products could drive power levels
down significantly.
Hours of use have almost doubled since the early 1990s
from approximately 500 hours per annum to more than
900 hours per annum. This is projected to continue to rise
to approximately 1200 hours per annum by 2020 as they
become more ubiquitous and the internet becomes an
integral element of education and entertainment in the home.
Future trends in ownership are unclear values could
stabilise near current levels or could increase to as many
as 1.5 to two computers per home. This is an area where
trend analysis is highly uncertain. Natural energy efficiency
improvements (driven by laptop design) and the impact of
future programs like MEPS, energy labelling and Energy Star
are expected to temper growth in energy use towards the
end of the study period (although these programs are not
included in the baseline estimates).

Figure 40: Energy Consumption (PJ) Dishwashers in Australia from 1986 to 2020

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

0.0

YEAR

SECTION 4
55

4.7.2

Miscellaneous IT equipment switched


and unswitched

Miscellaneous Information Technology (IT) equipment energy


use has been growing rapidly since the start of the study
period. Unswitched equipment energy use has now peaked
but switched equipment is expected to continue to grow
strongly for the remainder of the study period. In 1986
miscellaneous IT equipment usage was negligible, this is
estimated to have increased to nearly 3.5 PJ by 2005 and
is projected to continue to double to approximately 7 PJ by
2020 (Figure 44).
The main drivers for the increase in energy consumption have
been twofold:
An increase in the number of households but most
importantly the rapid increase in ownership of
miscellaneous IT equipment. There are currently a total of
3.2 of these devices per computer installed.
Hours of use have almost doubled since the early 1990s
from approximately 500 hours per annum to more than
900 hours per annum. This is expected to continue to rise
to approximately 1200 hours per annum by 2020. In many
homes unswitched equipment (eg broadband connections,
routers and switches) are being left in active modes for long
periods and while power levels are modest, the energy
consumption becomes significant where multiple units
arepresent.
Modest efficiency improvements and the introduction of
standby MEPS is not expected to temper much of the growth
of unswitched miscellaneous IT equipment energy use.

Switched equipment energy use is expected to remain stable


for the remainder of the study period.

4.7.3

Monitors

Monitor energy use (used with desktop computers) has been


growing rapidly since the start of the study period but is
now reaching a plateau with some further growth expected
late in the study period. In 1986 monitor energy usage was
negligible, this is estimated to have increased to nearly 1.2 PJ
by 2005 and is projected to continue to rise (after a small dip
around 2012) to almost 1.4 PJ by 2020 (Figure 45).
The main drivers for the increase in energy consumption
havebeen:
The increase in the number of households and strong
growth in ownership of monitors (associated with desktop
computers) since 1986. Ownership trends are linked to
desktop computers.
Hours of use have almost doubled since the early 1990s
from approximately 500 hours per annum to more than
900 hours per annum. This is expected to continue to rise
to approximately 1200 hours per annum by 2020.
The changeover from CRT to LCD monitors through the
period 2000 to 2010 has reduced energy consumption in
this period.
Efficiency improvements (particularly following the
replacement of CRT with LCD technology) and the impact
of the MEPS and EnergyStar could further reduce future
energy growth (although these are not assessed).

Figure 41: Energy Consumption (PJ) Refrigerators/Freezers in Australia from 1986 to 2020

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

25.0

FZ
20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

0.0

YEAR

RESULTS BY END USE


56

RF

4.8 Home entertainment


equipment
4.8.1

2020. However, for both of these products their standby


modes dominate the energy consumption and the one watt
targets will reduce energy consumption in the long term.

DVD, VCR and combination units

VCR energy use showed rapid growth since the start of the
study period but plateaued off in the mid 1990s following the
introduction of DVD technology. In 1986 VCR energy usage
was approximately 0.7 PJ, this is estimated to have increased
to nearly 1.2 PJ by the mid 1990s but has been in decline
ever since and is projected to fall to approximately 0.1 PJ by
2020 (Figure 46).
DVD energy use has shown rapid growth since their
introduction in the mid 1990s but is now plateauing off.
Commencing in the mid 1990s DVD energy usage is
estimated to have risen to approximately 0.6 PJ by 2005 but
is now projected to fall to approximately 0.45 PJ by 2020.
The main drivers for the increase in energy consumption by
DVDs up until the present time have been twofold:
The rise and fall of ownership for VCRs is driving their
energy consumption. The rapid increase in DVD ownership
was also the main driver for their increase in energy
consumption. Penetration of DVDs since 1995 (0%) had
risen to 72% by 2005. Penetration is projected to rise to
nominally 97% by 2020 (when ownership is projected to be
1.25 per household).

The introduction of standby MEPS is expected to result in a


projected fall in energy use for DVDs over the coming years
until 2020. VCRs will have mostly disappeared by 2020.

4.8.2

Home entertainment other

Home entertainment-other includes mostly stereo


components such as amplifiers, CD players, tuners, tape
players, integrated and portable stereos etc.
Home entertainment-other energy use had shown rapid
growth since the start of the study period but has now
plateaued off. In 1986 home entertainment-other energy
usage was approximately 0.5 PJ, this is estimated to have
now increased to nearly 3.5 PJ but is projected to decline to
approximately 2.0 PJ by 2020 (Figure 47).
Limited scope for growth in ownership coupled with the
introduction of a standby MEPS in 2012 is driving the
projected decline in energy usage from this end use for the
remainder of the study period. Again, most of the energy
consumption for these products is in standby and related
low power modes. It is estimated that there are nearly four of
these products per home.

Hours of use have significantly increased since the mid


1990s from approximately 250 hours per annum to almost
400 hours per annum at present. This is expected to
continue to rise to approximately 500 hours per annum by
Figure 42: Energy Consumption (PJ) Microwaves in Australia from 1986 to 2020

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

0.0

YEAR

SECTION 4
57

4.8.3

Games consoles

4.8.4

Games console energy use has been growing rapidly since


the start of the study period. In 1986 games console energy
usage was negligible, this is estimated to have increased to
just over 0.2 PJ by 2005 and is projected to continue to rise
to just over 1.2 PJ by 2020 (Figure 48).

Set-top boxes

Set-top boxes are broken into Pay television types


(subscription) and free-to-air digital converters to allow the
use of legacy analogue televisions with the digital free-toairbroadcasts.
Pay TV set-top box energy use has shown steady growth
since their introduction in the mid 1990s but is now
plateauing off. In 1995 Pay TV set-top box energy use
was negligible, this is estimated to have increased to
approximately 0.5 PJ by 2005 a level it is expected to
maintain to 2020 (Figure 49).

The main drivers for the increase in energy consumption have


been threefold:
The increase in the number of households and the rise in
ownership of games consoles. Ownership since 1986 (2%)
had risen to approximately 30% by 2005. Ownership is
projected to rise to nominally 45% by 2020.

Free-to-air TV set-top box energy use has shown extremely


rapid growth since their introduction at the end of the 1990s
but is expected to plateau around 2012. In 2000, free-to-air
TV set-top box energy usage was negligible, this is estimated
to have increased to approximately 0.5 PJ by 2005 and is
expected to continue to grow to almost 2.5 PJ by 2012 after
which it is projected to decline to less than 1.5 PJ by 2020.

On mode power consumption has increased from


approximately 15 W in the 1990s to approximately 50 W by
2005 with a projected 120 W by 2020. Some of the newest
and most popular models have very poor on mode energy
consumption (150 W).
Standby power consumption has increased from
approximately 14 W in the 1990s to approximately 43W
by 2005 with a projected 105 W by 2020. Fortunately
most games consoles are either left in off mode or are
disconnected when not in use.

The key driver for increasing energy use over the past 10
years has been the rapid uptake of these technologies.
Pay TV set-top box penetration has risen steadily from nil
to approximately 20% in 2005, this is projected to continue
to rise to just over 30% by 2020. The growth in ownership
of free-to-air set-top boxes is expected to be more prolific
growing from nil in 2000 to a projected 0.88 peak around
2012 (penetration 76%). Pay TV set-top boxes are expected
to improve in efficiency in the coming years.

Continued growth in penetration combined with significant


increases in on mode and standby power consumption could
result in continued strong growth in energy usage for games
consoles throughout the study period.

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

Figure 43: Energy Consumption (PJ) Computers in Australia from 1986 to 2020

7.0

PC

6.0

Laptops

5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

0.0

YEAR

RESULTS BY END USE


58

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

Figure 44: Energy Consumption (PJ) Miscellaneous IT in Australia from 1986 to 2020

7.0

Misc. ITS

6.0

Misc. ITU

5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

0.0

YEAR

Figure 45: Energy Consumption (PJ) Monitors in Australia from 1986 to 2020

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

0.0

YEAR

SECTION 4
59

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

Figure 46: Energy Consumption (PJ) DVD and VCR in Australia from 1986 to 2020

1.4

DVD

1.2

VCR

1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

0.0

YEAR

Figure 47: Energy Consumption (PJ) Home Entertainment in Australia from 1986 to 2020

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

0.0

YEAR

RESULTS BY END USE


60

Beyond 2012, free-to-air set-top box ownership is


expected to decline as most new TVs now being supplied
with integrated digital tuners. This trend, along with the
introduction of MEPS in all modes will significantly reduce
the energy consumption associated with this end use (these
programs have been included in the estimates). It must be
noted that the projected take up of free-to-air digital set-top
boxes (converters) is highly uncertain at this stage. DVD
recorders with integrated digital tuners are now replacing the
functions of VCRs and digital converter set-top boxes. Given
that there are some 15 million analogue televisions in the
stock at the moment, the take-up rate of these products will
be dependent on how many televisions are retired by 2012,
the prevalence of TVs with integrated digital tuners by that
date and prevalence of other products that could perform
the same function as a set top box (other products with a
digital tuner that can be shared). All of these factors make the
energy projections for this product somewhat uncertain.

4.8.5

Televisions

Television energy use has been growing steadily since the


start of the study period but is now projected to grow much
more rapidly over the remainder of the study period. In 1986
TV usage accounted for approximately 3 PJ, by 2005 this is
estimated to have increased to approximately 12 PJ in 2005
and is projected to exceed 45 PJ by 2020 (Figure 50).

The main drivers for the projected rapid increase in energy


consumption are:
Penetration of TVs has been above 98% throughout the
entire study period, however ownership has been rising
with the average number of TVs per household increasing
from approximately 1.5 in 1986 to a projected 2.1 by 2020.
This effect, combined with increases in household numbers
has resulted in a significant increase in stock levels. One
in four households buy a new television each year (current
sales of about two million units per annum).
Hours of viewing have been rising steadily over the study
period from approximately 1500 per annum in 1986 to a
projected 2800 hours by 2020 per TV. However, this data
is based on limited end-use measurements and there are
some uncertainties associated with it.
Since the late 1990s new technologies such as plasma,
projection and particularly LCDs have been gaining market
share in favour of CRT, which until 2000 accounted for
nearly all new televisions. By 2005 CRT screens accounted
for 75% of all sales but by 2007 this is estimated to have
fallen to less than 40%. LCDs are projected to have a 70%
market share by 2010. All of these newer technologies
have are driving a trend towards larger screen sizes. This
trend has resulted in a rapid rise in energy consumption
from an average on mode consumption of approximately
65W in 1986 to 100 W in 2005 and continuing to grow to
an estimated 230 W by 2020. This threefold increase in
power consumption, together with increases in hours of
operation and increases in ownership is a major driver of
increased energy consumption by TVs.

Figure 48: Energy Consumption (PJ) Games Consoles in Australia from 1986 to 2020

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

0.0

YEAR

SECTION 4
61

Active standby power consumption is expected to decline


from an average of approximately five watts in the 1990s
to less than one watt by 2020. This reduction is being
driven by existing trends among manufacturers to reduce
standby power consumption along with the one W standby
target to be introduced in 2012. These modest savings are
however dwarfed by the increases noted above. Energy
labelling and MEPS may reduce future energy demand for
televisions and the impacts have not been included in the
baselineestimates.

decline from 2010 to 2015 then begin to rise again for the
remainder of the study period. In 1986 lighting energy usage
was approximately 13 PJ and by 2005 this is estimated to
have increased to nearly 25 PJ with a peak of just over 27
PJ expected in 2010. Following a dip in energy consumption
post 2010, consumption is projected to rise again to
approximately 25 PJ by 2020 (Figure 52).
Apart from the growth in the number of households and
the increase in floor areas of those households, the main
drivers influencing the general upward trend in lighting energy
consumption are as follows:

4.9 Other equipment


4.9.1

Since the early 1990s there has been a strong growth in the
use of quartz halogen (QH) lighting. While this type of lighting
is slightly more efficient than standard incandescent lighting
by a factor of 1.5 to two (approximately 15-20 lumens/watt
compared to 10 lumens/watt) it is usually installed with a
much higher lumen density (typically more than three times
the lighting levels in lumens/m2). This results in a substantial
increase in energy consumption.

Electric kettles

Electric kettle use has been growing modestly since the


start of the study period. In 1986 electric kettle used 2 PJ of
energy consumption, and was estimated to have increased
to approximately 2.5 PJ by 2005 with projections to continue
to rise to almost 3 PJ by 2020 (Figure 51).

Compact fluorescent lamps have been slowly gaining


market share since their introduction in the late 1980s.
The penetration of this relatively efficient technology
(approximately 50-65 lumens/watt) is expected to increase
rapidly with the announced phase out of incandescent
lamps in 2009. This is expected to drive lighting energy
consumption downwards for the following five years.

With an estimated steady saturation of one kettle per


household and little if any scope for efficiency improvement,
electric kettles are expected to maintain a steady but
modest growth in line with population growth throughout the
studyperiod.

4.9.2

Beyond 2015 it is expected that practically all standard


incandescent lamps will have been removed from the
stock (largely replaced by CFLs). Beyond 2015 increases
in household numbers and the expected continuing

Lighting

Lighting energy use has shown steady and relatively strong


growth since the start of the study period but is expected to

Figure 49: Energy Consumption (PJ) Set-top Boxes in Australia from 1986 to 2020

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

0.0

YEAR

RESULTS BY END USE


62

STB FTA
STB PAY

popularity of QH lamps is projected to drive energy


consumption upwards again.
At this stage new technologies which may provide a viable
high efficiency replacement for QH (possibly fluorescent
or LED technology) appear likely, but these have not
been factored into the baseline estimates as a timetable
for their commercial viability is not known at this stage.
Note that linear fluorescent lamps and their ballasts
are already subjected to MEPS but these technologies
are not prevalent in the residential sector (despite their
superiorefficiency).

4.9.3

Other electricity (small miscellaneous


loads)

Small miscellaneous loads include power tools, fish tanks,


vacuum cleaners, small kitchen appliances (those not
normally on standby), pumps, portable or plug based lamps
(eg desk lamps or night lights), electric blankets, rangehoods, irons and so forth.

In 1986 pool and spa energy usage accounted for


approximately 6 PJ of energy consumption (electricity
approximately 4.5 PJ and gas approximately 1.5 PJ), this is
estimated to have increased to approximately 8.5 PJ by 2005
(electricity approximately 6.3 PJ and gas approximately 2.2
PJ) and is projected to continue to rise to more than 11 PJ
by 2020 (electricity approximately 8 PJ and gas slightly more
than 3 PJ) (Figure 55).

4.9.6

Water beds

Water bed energy use (ie resistive electric heating) had shown
modest growth from 1986 to the end of the 1990s. Beyond
the 1990s, energy use by water beds has been in decline in
line with ownership trends. In 1986 water bed energy usage
was approximately 1.2 PJ, this is estimated to have peaked
at approximately 1.4 PJ by the end of the 1990s and is
projected to decline to less than 0.6 PJ by 2020 (Figure 56).
The energy consumption per bed is assumed to be constant
and the energy consumption tracks ownership (which is
based on interpolated ABS data and has not beensmoothed).

Small miscellaneous load energy use has been growing


steadily since the start of the study period, basically in
line with the growth of household numbers. In 1986
miscellaneous energy accounted for an estimated 5 PJ of
energy consumption, this is estimated to have increased to
approximately 7 PJ by 2005 and is projected to continue to
rise to approximately 8.5 PJ by 2020 (Figure 53).

4.9.4

Other standby

Other standby includes all equipment types that were not


explicitly modelled as a separate appliance or product as
part of the stock model but that used some power when
connected to the mains. A list of the types of products
covered can be found in Section 6.6.8.5.
Other standby energy use has been growing rapidly since the
mid 1990s. In 1986 other standby energy usage accounted
for less than 0.5 PJ of energy consumption, this is estimated
to have increased to approximately 8 PJ by 2005 and is
projected to continue to rise to more than 18 PJ by 2020
(Figure 54). This growth is despite many of these products
having their energy reduced under the one watt MEPS
standby requirements in 2012.

4.9.5

Swimming pools and spas

Swimming pool energy use in the form of electricity for


pumping applications and some heating and gas used for
heating has been growing in line with ownership trends
over the study period. From the mid 1980s to the mid
1990s ownership was basically static. From the mid 1990s
ownership began to rise again slightly and this trend is
projected to continue to the end of the study period. No
significant improvements in efficiency have been factored in
to the estimates.

SECTION 4
63

Figure 50: Energy Consumption (PJ) Televisions in Australia from 1986 to 2020

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

YEAR

Table 51: Energy Consumption (PJ) Electric Kettles In Australia From 1986 to 2020

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

0.0

YEAR

RESULTS BY END USE


64

Figure 52: Energy Consumption (PJ) Lighting in Australia from 1986 to 2020

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

30

25

20

15

10

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

YEAR

Figure 53: Energy Consumption (PJ) Other Electricity in Australia from 1986 to 2020

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

YEAR

SECTION 4
65

Figure 54: Energy Consumption (PJ) Other Standby in Australia from 1986 to 2020

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

YEAR

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

Figure 55: Energy Consumption (PJ) Swimming Pools in Australia from 1986 to 2020

Electricity

Gas

7
6
5
4
3
2
1

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

YEAR

RESULTS BY END USE


66

Figure 56: Energy Consumption (PJ) Water Beds in Australia from 1986 to 2020

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

0.0

YEAR

SECTION 4
67

68

SECTION 5

POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD ESTIMATES

5 Population and
household estimates
5.1 Overview of estimates
It is always difficult to get a consistent time series for
household numbers and population in the residential sector.
Historical data from ABS is mainly based on census data.
However, the census value for households is always adjusted
slightly to correct for missing data, visitors and people who
are travelling and so forth.
Before documenting the estimates used in this report, it is
useful to review the mains terms used.
Estimated Resident Population (ERP): These are
estimates of the Australian population obtained by adding
to the estimated population at the beginning of a period,
the components of natural increase (on a usual residence
basis) and net overseas migration less deaths. For states
and territories, account is also taken of estimated interstate
movements involving a change of usual residence. After each
census, ABS usually makes estimates for the preceding intercensual period by incorporating additional data obtained from
the new census plus a range of other surveys conducted
during this period. The estimates of ERP are based on
adjusted census counts (which tend to under enumerate
population) by place of usual residence, to which the number
of Australian residents estimated to be temporarily overseas
at the time of census. ERP is the key variable in terms of
estimating population for modelling purposes. Note that
overseas visitors were not included. The concept of ERP
links people to a place of usual residence within Australia.
Usual residence is that place where each person has lived or
intends to live for six months or more in the reference year.
Estimates of ERP are available from 1971.
Households: The definition of a household used by the
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) in its appliance surveys
is a group of persons who are the usual residents of a
dwelling and who have some common provision for food and
other housekeeping arrangements (ABS8218.0).
One source of historical source of data for households was
the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census of Population
and Housing, which has been held at five-yearly intervals
since 1961. Household types listed in the census include
private, non-private (hotels, institutions, barracks, staff
quarters etc) and unoccupied. This study is based on values
for occupied private households. Prior to 1986, caravans
were counted as non-private dwellings, but from 1986,
they have been included as private occupied dwellings. The
census also generally gives some limited information on the
dwellingstructure.

A dwelling is a building or structure in which people live. This


can be a building such as a house, part of a building such
as a flat, or it can be a caravan or even a tent. Houses under
construction, derelict houses or converted garages are not
counted as dwellings in the census.
A private dwelling is normally a house, flat or even a room,
but it can also be a house or rooms attached to shops or
offices. Private dwellings can be either occupied or nonoccupied. This study has excluded non-occupied private
dwellings. Occupied private dwellings can have more than
one household, but this is fairly unusual in Australia, so
households are seen as a proxy for dwellings.
Non-private dwellings are those dwellings not included in
private dwellings, which provide a communal or transitory
type of accommodation. These dwellings include hotels,
motels, guest houses, prisons, religious and charitable
institutions, defence establishments, residential parts
of educational institutions, hospitals (including staff
accommodation) and other communal dwellings. For this
study, non-private dwellings have been excluded from the
household estimates. These are generally associated with
commercial sector energy consumption and include such
things as prisons, hospitals and residential accommodation in
commercial buildings. This study covers all households which
live in Class one and two buildings as defined under the
building Code of Australia.

5.2 Estimates used for this


study
For the original baseline study (EES 1999), the only
household estimates available were from historical surveys
(such as ABS8212 and ABS4602) and census estimates.
For the 1999 study projections of household numbers used
population projections from ABS3222.0 together with trend
data on household sizes to provide an estimate of future
household numbers.
In June 2004, ABS for the first time released projections of
households at a state level to 2026 in its report Household
and Family Projections (ABS3236.0). This study provides
an integrated projection of households and population at a
statelevel.
While population forecasts are also available in ABS3222.0,
the ERP and household figures in ABS3236 have been used
to ensure a consistent data set for historical and projected
household numbers. ABS3236 has three projection series
asfollows:

POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD ESTIMATES


70

Series I No change in propensities. Living arrangement


propensities for 2001 remain constant to 2026.
Series II Low rate of change in propensities. The linear
trend in propensities from 1986 to 2001 continues at the
full rate of change to 2006, half the rate of change to 2011,
one-quarter the rate of change to 2016, and then remains
constant to 2026.
Series III Continuation of 1986 to 2001 rate of change in
propensities. The linear trend in propensities from 1986 to
2001 continues at the full rate of change to 2026.
Propensities are essentially the proportion of the population
broken down by five-year age groups and by living
arrangements (such as couple with children, couple without
children, one parent family, other families, group households,
lone persons). The trends in these propensities were
examined from census data in 1986 to 2001 and trends
established and household estimates generated within the
bounds of the projected ERP to 2021. Series III has been
used for modelling in this report (continuation of current
trends in the main propensities) as this appears to be the
most realistic in terms of future household projections.
For data prior to 2001, the ABS has published some
historical household data in ABS3101 which gives data
on ERP and household estimates from 1991-2001 after
adjustments to take into account census data. Unfortunately,
the ABS3101 data appears to have some inconsistencies
(some large state variability from year-to-year).
Prior to 1991, census data for households was used together
with linear interpolation between census surveys. These
census values were adjusted by the relevant adjustment
factors at a state level to get consistent data between
ABS3101 values and the overlapping census values.
Some small adjustments to the resulting ABS data for the
period 1986 to 2006 have been made in order to smooth
state variations from year-to-year and to better match known
new housing approvals from ABS building approval data
obtained from local councils. Details of these adjustments are
set out in Section 7.
A table of the household numbers and the population by year
and state are set out in Table 10.

SECTION 5
71

Table 10: Estimated Number of Occupied Residential Households (000s)


Year

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

1990

2,072

1,544

1,030

537

564

172

47

94

6,060

1991

2,100

1,560

1,059

546

575

175

48

96

6,160

1992

2,133

1,578

1,097

554

588

178

50

99

6,277

1993

2,171

1,600

1,139

563

605

181

51

103

6,413

1994

2,210

1,624

1,189

571

625

184

52

106

6,562

1995

2,252

1,647

1,229

578

642

186

54

109

6,695

1996

2,283

1,663

1,255

581

653

187

55

110

6,787

1997

2,320

1,685

1,286

585

664

188

56

112

6,896

1998

2,360

1,713

1,319

591

677

189

58

114

7,022

1999

2,400

1,744

1,347

597

693

190

59

116

7,148

2000

2,440

1,784

1,381

605

710

192

60

118

7,290

2001

2,465

1,812

1,404

610

721

192

61

120

7,385

2002

2,503

1,848

1,435

618

736

194

62

122

7,518

2003

2,541

1,883

1,471

626

753

196

63

124

7,656

2004

2,577

1,916

1,510

634

771

198

64

127

7,797

2005

2,605

1,946

1,544

642

789

201

66

128

7,920

2006

2,640

1,972

1,581

647

805

202

68

130

8,045

2007

2,676

1,999

1,619

652

821

203

69

131

8,172

2008

2,711

2,027

1,658

657

837

205

70

133

8,298

2009

2,747

2,054

1,696

663

853

206

71

135

8,425

2010

2,782

2,082

1,734

668

869

207

72

137

8,551

2011

2,817

2,109

1,772

673

885

209

73

138

8,677

2012

2,853

2,137

1,810

678

901

210

75

140

8,803

2013

2,888

2,164

1,848

683

916

212

76

142

8,928

2014

2,923

2,191

1,886

688

932

213

77

143

9,053

2015

2,958

2,218

1,923

694

948

214

78

145

9,178

2016

2,993

2,245

1,961

699

964

216

79

147

9,303

2017

3,028

2,272

1,999

704

979

217

80

149

9,428

2018

3,063

2,299

2,036

709

995

218

81

150

9,552

2019

3,097

2,326

2,074

714

1,011

219

83

152

9,676

2020

3,132

2,353

2,111

719

1,026

221

84

154

9,800

POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD ESTIMATES


72

SECTION 6

APPLIANCE MODELLING METHODOLOGY

6 Appliance modelling
methodology
6.1 Overview
This section provides details of the input data and
assumptions regarding appliance and equipment attributes
as well as usage patterns that have been used to determine
total energy consumption estimates for appliances
andequipment.
From a modelling perspective, there are a number of
important elements that can affect the energy consumption
of a product. These are:
Attributes some of the key characteristics of the product
will affect its energy consumption such as size, capacity,
energy consumption or energy efficiency (see Appendices
E to H).
User interaction with the product how often the product
is used and what mode it is left in when not in use?
Climate and weather this is important for heating and
cooling loads, but also for some products that are affected
by temperature such as refrigeration.
Stock the number of products in use in each state will
impact on the total energy consumption. The stock is
estimated using ownership (ratio of stock to the number
of households) this facilitates the assessment of the
impact of different household projection scenarios (see
Appendices E to H).
This section examines each appliance which is covered by
the stock model and documents each of these parameters,
the relevant data sources documents, including selected
third-party energy consumption estimates which can be used
to verify the model outputs.
The key data for each appliance type is summerised,
including all assumptions and other parameters for modelling
of energy consumption. A general discussion regarding each
of the main parameters is included followed by a detailed
product discussion and finally the relevant data.

6.2 Attributes
6.2.1

Attribute overview

Appliance attributes are key parameters that affect, directly


or indirectly, the energy consumption of a product. These
are typically capacity or other attributes that are related to
energy consumption that are used to determine energy
efficiency. However, for some products, only the raw energy
consumption is used as the key attribute.
Examples of key attributes are the size and efficiency of
refrigerators and freezers and efficiency and capacity of air
conditioners. Some products have a much more complex

set of attributes such as clothes washers, where the rated


capacity, volume of water used, hot water imported and
electrical power consumption all impact on the energy
consumption of the product (also noting that consumer use
of the product such as loads washed and the temperature
setting selected have an impact this is covered in user
interaction). The spin performance of a washing machine
also has an impact on the performance of clothes dryers.
Products like space heaters and air conditioners are complex
because the final demand is a function of both the climate
and the building shell performance in which the appliance
islocated.
The energy consumption of some products such as water
heaters are complex in that there is heat loss, conversion
efficiency factors and, in the case of solar systems,
interaction with the weather and climate. The performance
of a water heater and ultimately its energy consumption
(supplied from fossil fuels) depends on these factors as well
as the hot water demand of the user.
For each product, the average attributes of new products
that flow into the stock for each year of the modelling period
are estimated from 1966 to 2020. No attempt has been
made to estimate the distribution of energy consumption
of products sold within each year, but in reality there will be
products that use both more energy and less energy than the
assumed average values. For some products the distribution
is well known, but for other products the data is very sketchy.

6.2.2

Attributes are estimated from a wide range of sources: some


of these are described below.
Registration data Many of the larger energy consuming
products are regulated for energy efficiency and there
is detailed data on the attributes including energy
consumption. EES has access to this registration data for
electrical products and the attributes by year of registration
can be examined to determine trends over time. This
is particularly important for household appliances that
have been regulated for a long period of time such as
refrigerators, freezers, clothes washers, clothes dryers,
dishwashers, air conditioners and electric water heaters.
The AGA Certified Directory of Gas Appliances (AGA
2007) also provides useful data for gas space heaters and
waterheaters.
Sales data Some sales data has been used to determine
the sales-weighted efficiency trends of products over
time. This is the most accurate approach where sales of
individual models can be cross-matched to registration
data to derive an accurate estimate of overall average sales
weighted new energy consumption (as well as other key
attributes) by year. However, for some products (particularly
those that are not regulated for energy consumption), sales
data by key attribute is also very helpful in determining
trends in energy consumption (eg sales of televisions by

APPLIANCE MODELLING METHODOLOGY


74

Attribute data sources

technology type and size, sales of games consoles by


type), particularly if some energy consumption data is
known about selected products. Most detailed sales data
has been obtained from GfK Marketing (based in Sydney)
which is a commercial monitoring service that collects
model sales information (including actual price paid) from
retailers for a very wide range of products. Access to
this data is purchased by subscription by E3. For some
products this data is cross matched to registration data
see Greening Whitegoods (EES, 2006) for the most
significant forms of residential appliances. Some data on
sales by type is also obtained from BIS Shrapnel in their
biennial report titled The household appliances market in
Australia (BIS 2006).
Standby store surveys Since 2001 EnergyConsult
(on contract to E3) has been measuring the power of a
wide range of modes for new products which have been
offered for sale in retail stores (EnergyConsult 2006) as
part of the standby power strategy for Australia (MCE
2002). In most cases, only low power modes (off and
various standby modes) are measured, but for some
products on mode power has also been measured (notably
televisions). This provides a database of nearly 8,000
product measurements with trends in power consumption
overtime.
Standby intrusive surveys In 2000 a survey of 64 homes
by EES in three states documented every appliance
present as well as the power consumption in all relevant
modes. This covered some 2,500 appliances. The survey
was repeated in 2005 for 120 homes and covered some
8,000 appliances (EES 2006a). Information on the year of
purchase was collected for many products, so this data set
provides a snapshot of trends over time for a wide range of
products and modes. It also provides important information
on the mode in which products are left when not in use.
Published product information For some products, data
published by the manufacturer or supplier on attributes and
energy consumption was used to determine the profile of
attributes over time.
Laboratory data For some products, detailed test data
from selected laboratories was reviewed in order to provide
information on product performance and trends. For
water heaters, detailed simulation data on a wide range
of delivery conditions and four climate zones to AS4234
was conducted to determine generalised attributes for
modelling purposes for about 20 water heater types
including a range of solar systems. Data published by
the Australian Consumers Association (Choice) has
also been used for some products. Test laboratory data
was also used for products such as gas appliances
andrefrigerators.
Regulatory impact statements for some products,
regulatory proposals for new MEPS levels have been
released. Where these have been close to finalisation, the
projected future impact resulting from regulation has been
incorporated into the business as usual case. However,

regulatory proposals are in progress for a wide range of


products and most of these are in preliminary stages and
have not been incorporated in the business as usual case
(refer to the following section for details).
Special studies two special studies were commissioned
by George Wilkenfeld and Associates to determine key
attributes for lighting systems and for pools and spas
(GWA 2007a).
Any additional key data sources used to determine attributes
are listed within each product type subsection.

6.2.3

Attributes programs included

There are a wide range of energy programs in force or


under development that are intended to influence the future
energy consumption of appliances and equipment. The
majority of these are operated on a Federal-State basis by
the E3 committee, but there are a number of state-based
programs that also have an influence. These state-based
programs primarily revolve around building-shell performance
requirements, although in recent years many states have
moved to influence hot water system selection through
either incentives or mandatory requirements. The national
program of assigning Renewable Energy Certificates (RECS)
to solar water heaters by the Office of the Renewable Energy
Regulator (ORER) (see http://www.orer.gov.au/) has also had
some impact on water heater selection in recent years and
the impact into the future will be significant.
This section documents which program elements have been
included in the baseline estimates projected for this study
for appliances and equipment. The impact of state-based
programs that cover building shells are set out in Section 7.
As outlined previously, energy programs that are well
progressed have been included into the forward projections
for product attributes. However, most programs that are
proposed or in progress have not been included into the
future projections of product attributes. The details are set
out in Table 11.
The stock model used for this project is well suited to
examine the impact of a wide range of possible program
measures for a range of end uses. However, such analyses
are not included in this report and where requested will be
considered as separate projects.

6.3 User interaction with


products
User interaction with appliances covered by the bottom-up
model includes a wide range of parameters. These elements
include consumer use of the product (including settings/
programs), climate effects and complex effects such as hot
water demand (which is dependent on climate, cold water
temperatures and hot water use by other appliances).

SECTION 6
75

Table 11: Overview of Energy Programs Included in Baseline Energy Estimates


Product

Programs included (proposed but not included)

Refrigerators and Freezers

Energy labelling from 1986, MEPS 1999 and MEPS 2005 (energy labelling algorithm
upgrade in 2009, future MEPS levels not included)

Clothes Washers

Energy labelling from 1986, WELS water labelling from 2006, standby in energy label
from 2007 (future water and energy MEPS not included)

Clothes Dryers

Energy labelling from 1986 (MEPS on standby not included, disclosure of water
consumption on the energy label not included)

Dishwashers

Energy labelling from 1986, WELS water labelling from 2006, standby in energy label
from 2007

Microwaves

Mandatory 1 watt target by 2012

Lighting

Phased introduction of MEPS in 2009

Other Standby

Mandatory 1 watt target by 2012

Pools and Spas

No programs (proposed MEPS and labelling scheme not included)

Water Beds

No programs

Air conditioners (single phase, vapour


compression, air to air) - cooling

Energy labelling from 1987, MEPS 2004, MEPS 2006, MEPS 2007 (MEPS 2009,
energy labelling algorithm upgrade in 2009, future 3 phase MEPS not included)
(programs to improve duct performance not included)

Air conditioners (single phase, vapour


compression, air to air) - heating

Energy labelling from 1987 (MEPS on heating modes not included)

Air -conditioners Evaporative

No programs (water labelling or energy/water consumption standards not included)

Electric Space Heating (resistive)

No programs (assume 100% effective efficiency)

Gas Space Heating (ducted/room)

AGA energy labelling scheme since late 1980s (no government MEPS)

Wood Space Heating

No programs other than emission requirements (virtual elimination of open fireplaces


by 2000)

Water Heating Electric

MEPS 1999, MEPS 2005 which includes heat exchange and low pressure (future
MEPS increases or harmonisation with NZ or any further bans of new or replacements
not included other than current state requirements, which mostly cover new houses)

Water Heater Gas Storage

AGA energy labelling scheme since late 1980s, mandatory 5-star MEPS from Oct
2008

Water Heater Gas Instant

AGA energy labelling scheme since late 1980s, mandatory 5-star MEPS from Oct
2008

Water Heater Solar Flat Plate

Current trends driven by RECS assumed, tank heat loss static from 2000, solar
performance static but higher future share of selective surface assume (MEPS not
included)

Water Heater Heat Pump

Current trends driven by RECS assumed, performance static from 2000

Water Heater Solar Gas in tank

Current trends driven by RECS assumed, performance static from 2000

Water Heater Solar Gas in line

Collector and tank attributes from solar electric, boost efficiency from gas
instantaneous

Cook-top Electric

No programs, static efficiency

Cook-top Gas

No programs, static efficiency

Ovens Electric

No programs, small natural decrease in oven heat loss due to technology


improvements, small decrease in standby under mandatory 1 watt (oven heat loss
MEPS not included)

Ovens Gas

No programs, static efficiency, very small decrease in standby under mandatory 1 watt

APPLIANCE MODELLING METHODOLOGY


76

Product

Programs included (proposed but not included)

Televisions

No programs, current market trends in size and change in market share by type
(MEPS and energy labelling not included, new technologies not included)

Set-top Boxes (free-to-air digital and


subscription)

MEPS in 2009

Home Entertainment Equipment

Mandatory 1 watt target by 2012, Energy Star for selected products

Games Consoles

Mandatory 1 watt target by 2012 (MEPS not included)

Computers, Monitors, Laptops

Energy Star (MEPS and/or energy labelling not included)

Other Computer Equipment

Mandatory 1 watt target by 2012, Energy Star for selected products

Other Equipment Standby

Mandatory 1 watt target by 2012 where applicable

Miscellaneous Electricity

No programs

For products that are based on distinct cycles (for example


appliances such as clothes washers, dishwashers and
clothes dryers) the main factor is the average number of
cycles per year plus the standby power for the remaining
time when not in use (which is partly dependent on cycle
time). For televisions the key usage parameter is the number
of hours that the television is on per year, but the time spent
in each other relevant mode when not in operation is also
important (standby, off mode and disconnected).
For the majority of products, the time in active mode and the
time spent in remaining low power modes is estimated in
order to calculate overall annual energy consumption. In most
cases, data on usage patterns is fairly scarce, so the best
data possible has been compiled from a range of available
sources in order to prepare these estimates. In most cases,
the time spent in each of the relevant modes is assumed to
be static over time, but in some cases where more data is
available (eg hours of television use) a trend of time is used.
The Intrusive Standby Surveys (EES 2001, EES 2006a)
provide reasonable data on the typical modes in which
products are left for a wide range of product types. These
surveys also included questionnaires on usage patterns and
modes which have been utilised.
The other important data source for usage patterns is enduse metering data, noting that these sources are very scarce.
The most useful sources are the Pacific Power Domestic
End-use Study in NSW (Pacific Power 1994 and BRANZ
2000) and the Household Energy End-use Project (HEEP)
in New Zealand (BRANZ 2005, BRANZ 2006). For most
products it has been assumed that usage parameters will be
comparable in Australia and New Zealand apart from obvious
climate related end uses. These studies are most useful for
determination of patterns in active mode in most cases,
the metering equipment used in the above surveys was not
sufficiently accurate to provide reliable information on low
power modes.

Information on cycles per week for major laundry appliances


and dishwashers was also obtained from ABS4602, which
asks some questions on usage patterns (although the
reported frequency distribution is very coarse). This ABS
survey also tracks over time (since 1994) typical washing
temperatures for clothes washers at a state level, which has
been built into the modelling system. A range of other surveys
conducted by Choice (ACA 1995) and The Sustainable Home
(Connection Research 2007) also provides some usage data
for some products.
A summary of the key assumptions regarding usage are
included in Table 12. More information is included in the
relevant appliance summaries below.

6.4 Climate and weather


Climate and weather has a major impact on a few major end
uses, namely heating, cooling as well as some impact on
refrigeration. The process of generating heating and cooling
demand is complex and is described more fully in Sections
7 and 8. In short, households are split into one of 10 national
climate zones. A wide range of representative building shells
are modelled in each climate zone and an average house
performance in each state is compiled based on the share
of different building shell types in each state. The presence
or not of a primary heating or cooling device is then applied
to the households in each state. Different appliances are
assumed to have various levels of restrictive zoning
(depending on their capability eg small electric heaters
can only heat part of the house, central ducted systems can
heat most of the house). Air conditioning and heating is only
assumed to occur in houses that have the appliance (eg if
50% of houses in one state have an air conditioner, the total
cooling demand for the state is divided by two). As noted
in the relevant sections, actual weather data was used from
1986 to 2004 to give a better correlation between actual
demand and modelled energy consumption for those years.

SECTION 6
77

Table 12: Key Usage Parameters by Product


Product

Usage

Usage Unit

% sby

% off

% discon

Comment

Clothes Washers top


and front

312

Cycle pa

0%

100%

0%

Off mode derived from AS/NZS2040


registration data and is an average of off
and end of cycle modes

Clothes Dryers

60

Cycle pa

0%

100%

0%

Average varies by state. Reduced


moisture and smaller loads than rated
assumed

Dishwashers

175

Cycle pa

0%

100%

0%

Off mode derived from AS/NZS2007


registration data and is an average of off
and end of cycle modes

Microwaves

50

Hours pa

95%

5%

0%

Off is mechanical type

Lighting living areas

Hours/day

N/A

N/A

N/A

Per fitting, based on technology share


and light intensity/floor area

0.5

Hours/day

N/A

N/A

N/A

Per fitting, based on technology share


and light intensity/floor area

Television

2600

Hours pa

40%

50%

10%

Hours increasing over time. Average new


composite TV based on sales weighted
model for CRT, LCD and plasma types

VCR

429

Hours pa

88%

2%

10%

Few units have off mode

DVD

358

Hours pa

65%

25%

10%

Hours increasing. Composite of players


and hard drive/recorders

Set-top Box free-toair digital

2600

Hours pa

50% *

40% *

10%

*Modes are:
Active Standby/Passive Standby

Lighting non living

Set-top Box
subscription

2600

Hours pa

50% *

50% *

0%

*Modes are:
Active Standby/Passive Standby
Pay TV boxes rarely disconnected as
access key data can be lost

Home Entertainment
Other

550

Hours pa

60%

20%

20%

Intrusive data: 20% unplugged, 18% off,


8% AS and 53% PS

Games Consoles

110

Hours pa

5%

75%

20%

0.3 hours per day usage

Computers desktop

875

Hours pa

4%

86%

10%

Off may allow soft boot in some cases

Computers laptop

600

Hours pa

25%

30%

45%

400 hours usage plus 50% added for


battery charge periods

Monitors

390

Hours pa

60%

30%

10%

65% PC on time for usage, balance


assumed to be standby

Miscellaneous IT
Equipment switched

875

Hours pa

60%

30%

10%

Products that are usually switched off


with the PC

Miscellaneous IT
Equipment unswitched

875

Hours pa

85%

5%

10%

Products that are not often switched off


with the PC

Electric Kettle

1.5

L/person/day

N/A

N/A

N/A

Few kettles have standby

Other Standby

1433

Hours pa

20%

40%

40%

Based on 2005 Intrusive, hours


on=active standby

Notes: Refrigerators and freezers do not have usage impacts, only climate see Section 6.6.5.5. Data for pools and spas based on a sub-model
developed by GWA (2007a) which has variations at a state level for pumps and heating. Water beds are adjusted by climate. Percentage of
modes are share of time for non-active period.

APPLIANCE MODELLING METHODOLOGY


78

However, as noted in Section 3, there are some limitations on


the accuracy of this from year-to-year as not all major cities
were modelled with their own climate zones (most notably
Tasmania, Perth and Western Sydney).
In the case of refrigeration appliances (refrigerators and
freezers), an overall climate adjustment factor has been used
to scale the energy consumption on the energy label (which
is well documented in terms of sales weighted trends) to
estimate actual in situ energy consumption in each state. In
most climates, refrigerators and freezers use less energy in
normal use than the value stated on the energy label. Details
are set out in Section 6.6.5.5. Unfortunately, the availability
of data on which to base these adjustments is limited as
there have been few studies which compare laboratory
measurements with in situ measurements (EES, 2000). In
addition, the energy-temperature response curve will differ
for different appliances and little such data is available. So
the adjustments used will probably be reasonable for the
stock but should not be used to estimate climate effects of
individual models.
Climate-based adjustments were made for water heaters
in terms of ambient air temperatures (for heat losses where
applicable) and cold water inlet temperatures (to determine
energy consumption for different temperature rises hot
water temperature minus cold water temperature). Detailed
simulations to AS4234 for all four climate zones identified in
AS4234 and for a wide range of water heaters and hot water
loads were also used to determine climate-based impacts
for water heating, including the response of a range of
solarsystems.
Clothes dryer uses in terms of cycles per year were adjusted
at a state level where some differences in average usage
patterns were known to occur in response to typical overall
climate (based on ABS8218 diaries in 1986) (strictly this is
a usage parameter, but this is an indirect function of climate
to some degree). Some variations in state usage levels for
pool filters and pool heaters were made on the basis of
climate data and known variations of use at a state level
(GWA 2007a). Water beds also have an adjustment based on
climate data.
For the purposes of this study, no other equipment types are
adjusted in response to climate.
Detailed assumptions regarding climate and weather are
included in the relevant appliance summaries below.

6.5 Ownership and stock


ofappliances
6.5.1

Ownership overview

The number of products in use in each state (together with


the other factors outlined above) will impact on the total
energy consumption. In simplistic terms, more items in use
means more energy consumption (in most cases). The stock
is estimated using ownership (ratio of the total stock to the
number of households) this facilitates the assessment of the
impact of different household number projection scenarios.
Ownership is data on the presence of the total number of
products that consume energy in households. Penetration
and ownership are both estimated where relevant. The
ownership of some products varies considerably by state (eg
space heating and cooling equipment, which is dependent
on climate and the availability of various fuels) whereas
other products are fairly uniform across all states (eg home
entertainment equipment, refrigerators, but not freezers).
Data on ownership and penetration from 1966 to 2020 is
estimated as a modelling input for this report.
The following important definitions are used in this report:
Penetration the proportion of households in which one or
more of a particular appliance type is present (irrespective
of the number of units of that appliance in the household).
This value is usually given as a percentage and the maximum
value is 100%.
Stock the total number of a particular appliance type in use
within households. This value is given as an integer (usually
thousands or millions). The stock refers to the number in
regular use, or a proxy for the number in regular use.
Ownership the ratio of stock to the total number of
households. This value is usually given as a decimal number
and can exceed 1.0.
Saturation the average number of appliances per
household only for those households with one or more of the
appliance. The minimum value is 1.0.
The following important relationships are used in this report.
Stock = Ownership Number of Households
Ownership = Penetration Saturation

SECTION 6
79

6.5.2

Ownership product issues

For products like refrigerators and freezers, the energy


consumption is fairly independent of consumer usage
patterns, so the key variable is the number connected and
operating and to a lesser extent the climate region. For other
appliances, such as other whitegoods, it is assumed that
most households have only one main appliance that is in
active use. The same is assumed for other appliances such
as cooking equipment, pools, spas and water beds.
In the case of water heaters, it is known that a small
proportion of households (of the order of a few percent) have
more than one water heater. However, the bulk of energy
for water heaters is associated with hot water use and this
is driven by a number of factors, such as appliance hot
water use (clothes washers) and the number of persons per
household. Additional losses from multiple water storage
heaters have been ignored as these will be fairly small in
overall energy terms.
In the case of air conditioners, the saturation is known
at a state level with some degree of certainty (number of
appliances per house for households with at least one of
the appliance). On average the saturation Australia wide
was about 1.28 for air conditioners in 2007 and this is rising
slowly. For modelling purposes, it is assumed that only one
central ducted system per house is installed (for heating and/
or cooling) while the rest of the systems are allocated as
multiple non-ducted air conditioners per house.
Space heaters are tracked as the main type of space heater
by ABS4602 so only one per house is assumed. In most
households there will be some secondary heating sources,
although their use will be highly variable. Secondary space
heating is not modelled explicitly for this study.
The ownership of other home entertainment equipment
(which mostly consists of audio equipment such as portable
stereos, integrated stereos, hi-fi components etc) has
been lumped into a single end use with almost four items
per average household. Televisions continue to climb in
ownership with an average of about two per home in
2007. Usage patterns for multiple televisions are not well
documented, but metered data from the limited studies
available show that usage is quite high for primary and
secondary televisions, except those installed in bedrooms
(BRANZ 2007, BRANZ 2000).
VCR ownership peaked at 1.1 per home in 2002 and
appears to be falling rapidly. It was almost impossible
to purchase a new VCR in 2007. There are already 1.1
DVDs per household and about 25% of new units sold
have multiple capabilities such as digital tuners and/or
hard disks and/or DVD burners, making them an obvious
replacement for the now obsolescent VCRs. More than 20%
of households had subscription television of some description
in 2007 (assumed to be limited to one per home). Digital

conversion adaptors are expected to spike in ownership just


after 2012 when analogue broadcasts are scheduled to be
phased out (although this date seems to be pushed back
on a regular basis). However, the rapid increase in integrated
digital tuners in new televisions (together with DVD recorders
with integrated digital tuners) may dampen this future
demand for simple digital converters.
Computer ownership has increased rapidly over the past
10 years from a base of almost nothing to nearly 80% of
households having at least one computer. Data from ABS
appears to conflict with surveys conducted by EES (EES
2006a) and also alternative surveys which concentrated
on electronic products these tend to suggest that most
households now have several computers (Connection
Research 2007). The Age newspaper in February 2008 noted
that 91% of households now have an internet connection
(The Age, 10 February 2008).
Tracking laptop ownership and use is tricky as many will be
owned by employers but will spend some of their life in
a household environment. Data suggests that nearly 50%
of households have at least one laptop present some of
the time. There is a rapid changeover from CRT to LCD
computer monitors which started shortly after 2000. The
household sector still lags behind the commercial sector in
this respect. In addition to computers, there are about 1.5 so
called switched miscellaneous PC peripherals per computer
and 1.7 so called unswitched miscellaneous PC peripherals
per computer.
Lighting is, of course, found in every home. A new approach
was developed for this study that estimates the share by
lighting technology, lighting intensity, lighting efficiency and
hours of use for living and non-living areas.

6.5.3

The end-use model developed for this project is not a formal


forecasting model for future end-use energy consumption
and should not be treated as one. However, it can provide
insights into current trends of appliance ownership and
the likely impact that these changes may have on energy
consumption, now and in the future. It can also help to
identify end uses that may be subject to future energy growth
(and hence may be suitable targets for energy regulation)
or opportunities for fuel switching to reduce emissions. As
a general rule, ownership projections, which are a key input
into future energy projections, are based on historical trends
together with information on the sales and ownership of
products where this is known.
Projecting or extrapolating future ownership levels based on
historical trends has inherent uncertainties. For example, the
explosion in air conditioner ownership after 2000 could not
be reasonably predicted on the basis of historical data prior
to 2000, as air conditioner ownership remained fairly steady

APPLIANCE MODELLING METHODOLOGY


80

Ownership future estimates

over the 1990s. Forecasting appliance ownership on the


basis of historical trends is akin to driving down a freeway
using the rear-vision mirror to steer. While the road is straight,
it should be fine, but once the road starts to curve, navigation
can get tricky. In most cases there is no better way to tackle
this issue, particularly when more than 50 separate end uses
are modelled in this report. This qualification applies to both
ownership and attributes (energy efficiency) of appliances and
equipment in the home. In both cases, information on trends
together with intelligent guesswork is required.
Over the period to 2020, which is covered by the end-use
model, it is highly likely that a number of new end uses and
new technologies will appear on the market and become
prevalent in the home. There is no way to predict what
these new end uses might be and what energy impact they
may have. It is instructive to think back 13 years prior to
2007 and consider the changes that have happened since
1994: the DVD was invented, flat-screen televisions became
commercialised and now dominate sales, VCRs have
become obsolete, hard disk recorders are now common,
digital television is available and will be universal by 2012,
mobile phones are now ubiquitous, MEPS for more than
15 products have been introduced, computers in the home
are now common (some 91% of homes have an internet
connection in 2008, while this was just 7% in 1995 - The
Age, 10 February 2008), personal digital music players are
ubiquitous (eg iPod), the internet and broadband is now
common, just to name a few items. It would be difficult to
accurately predict such things in 1994. Some are having
a large impact on energy consumption (eg flat-screen
televisions) but for most the energy impacts are modest.
It is important also to understand that most econometric
models use factors such as wealth and economic activity
to indirectly predict energy consumption and the purchase
of consumer goods. The end-use model developed for this
report is diametrically opposed to this type of approach all
modelling explicitly tracks individual end uses to generate
a total estimated energy consumption from the bottom
up. Clearly both approaches have limitations. Econometric
models provide no physical basis to understanding the
drivers for energy consumption and just assume that
historical relationships between energy consumption and
economic activity continue to persist (less some allowance
for energy-efficiency improvements). Econometric models for
the residential sector are particularly tenuous as the measure
of economic activity is usually very indirect and there are a
lot of non-economic drivers for energy consumption. On the
other hand, end-use models provide an explicit explanation
of the energy consumption by product type, but are generally
unable to cope with the real cyclical nature of appliance and
equipment purchases, which to some degree depend on the
state of the economy. For example, the dramatic price fall for
air conditioners due to increases in production in China and
increases in household wealth together with a perception
of increasing summer heat has probably accelerated

demand for residential air conditioners in the past eight


years. This would be difficult to foresee for an end use or an
econometricforecaster.
An orderly usage profile and replacement schedule is
assumed for end-use modelling purposes no exogenous
impact from the economy is included. In reality, some core
appliances will be replaced when they break down (eg water
heaters and refrigerators) but many appliance acquisitions
will be discretionary to some degree and purchasing cycles
will depend on household wealth (spare cash) and the price
of goods. Some other factors can also have an effect, such
as the historical cycle of television purchases that appear to
match the four-year cycle of the Olympics these are very
difficult to explicitly model through any approach.
Neither approach can deal with the energy impacts of new
technology. In the short term, an end-use model should give
reasonable estimates on the basis of projected changes
in ownership, assuming there is no substantial change
in technology or end-use energy service. Even where
this occurs, it takes some time for such technology to
diffuse into the stock, so the changes are usually gradual.
However, beyond 10 years, end-use models will become
more uncertain because traditional end uses (water heating,
cooking, space heating etc) may be affected by new
(hopefully more efficient) technologies and undoubtedly new
end uses will appear while existing end uses will disappear
(many associated with entertainment and computers). A
case in point is networked equipment in the home this is
currently unusual, but if it becomes prevalent, there could
be substantial energy penalties through increased standby
unless strong policy actions are taken to control this aspect.
Traditionally, governments have not dictated policies that
restrict the ownership of products that provide energy
service. This would (in most cases) be regarded as an
unreasonable infringement on personal liberty or freedom.
For example, it is unlikely (at least in the short term) to place
a limit on the number of computers or televisions that a
household can own or operate. So from this perspective,
government policies (at least historically) tend not to have
a large direct impact on ownership trends of appliances
and equipment. However, in cases where there are multiple
technologies that can deliver a comparable energy service,
there are many past examples (and possible more examples
in the future) where government policies aim to restrict the
availability of certain technology types or fuels due to energy
and/or greenhouse considerations. An example is the type
of water heater in a new home many states now have
requirements regarding the type of water heater that can
be installed (GWA 2007b). So while such a policy is not a
direct restriction on the amount of hot water available to
the household, it will impact on the capital costs of water
heating systems and also the amount of fossil fuel required
to deliver the likely energy service. Conceivably, future
MEPS requirements could restrict the availability of certain

SECTION 6
81

technologies modelled within this report. Impacts on future


ownership are difficult to establish until such policies are
formally announced.

Air conditioners ducted (includes cooling only and reverse


cycle types).

End-use models can be kept relevant with regular updates


to ensure that ownership trends and product attributes
align with the most current survey data and that any new
significant end uses are included when they appear.

Room type systems include window wall types and split


systems. As expected, air conditioner ownership varies
substantially by state. Ownership accelerated rapidly after
2000 in most states and national sales have climbed to
about one million units a year, although a significant minority
of these units (about one-third) are sold to and installed in
commercial establishments. Air conditioners are creating
serious peak-load issues in some states, although this issue
is not examined as part of this study.

Air conditioners Evaporative (mostly central).

6.6 Input assumptions by


product type
This section sets out the key assumptions and data sources
for each of the modelled end uses. The data for appliance
attributes (capacity and efficiency) for product and year is
shown in Appendices E to H. The data for ownership for
product, state and year is also shown in Appendices E to H.

A summary of national ownership trends and share by type is


shown in Figure 57 and Figure 58. State figures for ownership
are shown in the Appendices E to H. Non-ducted reverse
cycle units are now the most common type and account for
about 65% of total sales (mostly split systems window walls
are rare) and this share is expected to increase to over 80%
by 2020. All of these products are affected by MEPS levels
and energy labelling.

For some products such as refrigerators, freezers and air


conditioners, the data is based on complex sub-models
of the various product types and a range of data sources.
Documentation on these sub-models is contained in separate
Appendices in this report where noted below.

6.6.1

Usage of space cooling equipment was derived from the


output of the building shell model and AccuRate simulations
for heating and cooling for the 10 climate zones. This is set
out in more detail in Sections 7 and 8.

Space cooling equipment

These products are broken into:


Air conditioners reverse-cycle non-ducted (room
typesystems).

The most important attribute for air conditioners is the energy


efficiency, called the EER (energy efficiency ratio) for cooling
and COP (coefficient of performance) for heating (where
applicable). To a lesser extent capacity (maximum output) is
of some interest, but this really only has an impact on energy

Air conditioners cooling only non-ducted (room


typesystems).

Figure 57: Ownership Trends for Air Conditioners in Australia

AC PENETRATION

100%
90%
Actual
t

Forcast
o a

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

0%

YEAR

APPLIANCE MODELLING METHODOLOGY


82

units (which predominate the residential sector) in 2004 and a


more stringent level again in 2006 for most configurations (or
2007 for remaining types).

estimates if the air conditioner is substantially undersized and


only on peak heating or cooling days.
There is a range of sources for trends in air conditioner EER
and COP. The main ones are registration data, which have
been available since the late 1980s, and more recently, GfK
sales data, which provides actual sales and price by model
for more that 80% of the total non-ducted market (this
has only been available since 2003). Other data sources
provide data on capacity and sales (eg Informark 2007)
and there is other data on share by type and by brand
and complementary ownership data is also available (BIS
Shrapnel 2006).

For ducted systems, the coverage by GfK is much lower than


for non-ducted systems and the total market is much smaller.
However, for these products the two data sets (registration
data and GfK model sales) provide comparable values
forefficiency.
A detailed sub-model of the trends and market share of each
of the main air conditioner types is shown in Appendix B.
The registration system for ducted systems only provides
data on the system efficiency at the entry point to the duct
(as determined under AS/NZS3823.1.2). While data on duct
losses (through heat gain or loss and leaks) is limited in
Australia, some research data in Victoria suggests that these
could be as much as 30% to 40%, especially as duct tape
(for joins) deteriorates over time and leaks increase (Enertech,
2008). Studies in the US have shown that ducting losses are
typically as high as 35% (Jump et al. 1996) and values of
25% even after retrofit. The overall performance of ducting is
complex and a range of factors affect the overall losses (Delp
2007). For this study, a flat value of 25% energy losses (leaks
and conduction) for all ducted systems are assumed on top
of the system efficiency. This has been applied to both air
conditioning systems (heating and cooling) as well as central
gas ducted systems. This factor effectively reduces the
apparent system efficiency (and hence increases total energy
consumption to maintain the specified internal conditions).

It has to be said that the air conditioner market is very


complex with some 200 brands now in the market. None of
the data sources cited above appear to be complete and this
is made more complex by the fact that identical products can
be installed in commercial and residential applications making
these markets hard to quantify.
The primary data source used to track efficiency trends for air
conditioners was the energy labelling and MEPS registration
data which has been available since 1987. Average values
by year were determined and then smoothed to remove
annual random perturbations. While this approach assumes
equal sales for each model registered, the actual sales
weighted data from GfK from 2003 to 2006 closely mirrors
the smoothed registration data, which provides added
confidence to the accuracy of the analysis. The period from
2003 to 2006 was one of rapid change in the efficiency of air
conditioners, with the introduction of MEPS for single phase

Figure 58: Share of Air Conditioner Stock by Type in Australia

AIR CONDITIONER SHARE BY TYPE

60%
Actual

Forecast

Central CO
Central RC

50%

Nonduct RC
Nonduct CO

40%

Evaporative

30%

20%

10%

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

0%

YEAR

SECTION 6
83

Inclusion of data on evaporative systems is always a vexed


issue, as the energy service provided by refrigerative and
evaporative systems is quite different. Based on published
data from a range of manufacturers, an equivalent EER
value was calculated. Equivalence in this sense relates to the
relative energy consumption of these systems rather than
the energy service which is delivered. An equivalent EER of
12 has been used as this is representative of central ducted
models which make up the majority of these systems. A
lower equivalent EER (of the order of five to eight) would
apply to smaller systems. The water consumption of these
systems is significant but this has not been quantified for
this study. Accurate water consumption data for these
systems is difficult to find. A range of advances in pump
and fan technology and in evaporators means that some
new systems have much improved energy and water
consumption attributes, but these have not been factored
into the estimates and warrant a more detailed study which
focuses on these products.

with milder climates (especially in those areas without


reticulatedgas).

6.6.2

For gas heating systems, the primary source of data was


the gas energy labelling data collected and published by the
Australian Gas Association as part of the gas energy labelling
scheme (AGA 2007), together with selected laboratory data
to determine key parameters to enable modelling of the data.
The attributes for room heaters assumed that the combustion
products are flued externally. In some states, unflued heaters
are prevalent (eg NSW) so there may be a mismatch between
the assumed attributes and the installed stock. Unfortunately
there is little data available on the stock share of flued and
unflued gas heaters over time which would be required to
accurately model these differences at a state level.

Space heating equipment

These products are broken into:


Electric resistive space heating
LPG gas non-ducted space heating
Mains gas ducted space heating
Mains gas non-ducted space heating
Reverse-cycle ducted space heating
Reverse-cycle non-ducted space heating
Wood space heating
As expected, space heating ownership and type varied
substantially by state. One important factor is the availability
of fuel type gas is common in Victoria, South Australia,
Western Australia (in capital cities at least) and the ACT, is
less common in NSW and unusual in Queensland, Tasmania
and the Northern Territory. Queensland and the Northern
Territory have generally low heating requirements and these
two states have a significant proportion of households with
no main space heating (although they are likely to use some
secondary heating). Space heating accounts for over 25%
of total energy consumption in Australia and the majority of
this is mains gas, and the majority of gas space heating is
inVictoria.
As for air conditioning cooling energy consumption, usage of
space heating equipment was derived from the output of the
building shell model and AccuRate simulations for heating
and cooling for the 10 representative climate zones.
Figure 59 sets out national trends on space heating
ownership by type. Gas heating is increasing, but gas is
already dominant in most of the colder climates (except in
Tasmania), so it accounts for the bulk of national energy.
Electric space heating is increasing, mostly in the form
of reverse cycle air conditioners, generally in the states

The most important attribute for heating is the COP


(coefficient of performance), or in simple terms the overall
efficiency (output over input in W/W). As for air conditioners,
the capacity (maximum output) is of some interest, but this
really only has an impact on energy estimates if the heater is
substantially undersized. The assumed zoning factor by type
of heater is a reflection of the area of the house that can be
effectively heated by a typical product.
There are a range of sources for trends in heater efficiency
data. For reverse-cycle air conditioners, the same data
sources as for air conditioners have been used. A detailed
sub-model of the trends for each of the main reverse cycle air
conditioner types is shown in Appendix B.
For resistive heating systems, a constant efficiency of 100%
has been assumed for all years.

As noted for air conditioners, a flat value of 25% losses for all
ducted systems are assumed on top of the system efficiency
for gas ducted systems. This factor effectively reduces the
apparent system efficiency (and hence increases total energy
consumption to maintain the specified internal conditions).
The efficiency attributes for gas heaters running on natural
gas are assumed to be the same as for LPG. It is assumed
that practically all ducted gas heaters will be operating on
natural gas as operation on LPG would be prohibitively
expensive in most cases.
For wood heaters, data supplied by John Todd of the
University of Tasmania was reviewed (Todd, 2007) together
with certified product listing from the Australian Home
Heating Association (AHHA, 2008). In January 2008 some
274 separate wood heater models were listed together with
their efficiency data (see http://www.homeheat.com.au/
certified.php). For these heaters the model average efficiency
(based on three output levels) was 60%. However, John Todd
suggests that these values are often somewhat overstated
as the testing is done in ideal laboratory conditions with
controlled fuel quality (compared to being used in the home)
and in some cases the products sold in the market appear to

APPLIANCE MODELLING METHODOLOGY


84

Solar electric water heaters

have a different specification to the approved models (which


may be based on optimised prototypes). So the average
assumed efficiency for wood heaters offered for sale in
2008 was downgraded by 8% to account for these factors.
There has been an increasing efficiency trend for many years
for sold fuel heaters as these slowly improve in terms of
efficiency and particulate emission outputs. These are being
driven by further testing to AS/NZS4012 and AS/NZS4013.

Solar gas in line boosted water heaters


Solar gas in tank boosted water heaters
Some performance data is available for evacuated tube solar
systems but these were not modelled as a separate type
for this project as their market share is still negligible. It is
assumed that few electric systems will be instantaneous (no
storage) and so all electric systems have been treated as
storage models.

The share of open fires as a main space heater was


significant in the 1960s and 1970s but this has shown a
substantial decline in market share in recent years. In 2005
ABS4602 reported that only 7.8% of houses that used wood
as their main heating source had an open fire. This effectively
constitutes an overall share of about 2% of space heating
and this is steadily declining. The efficiency of an open fire is
assumed to be 10% and Jetmaster style open fires with
some flue control are estimated to be 18%, these will make
up a significant percentage of modern open fire places.

6.6.3

The type of predominant water heater at a state level is


strongly dependent on the availability of mains gas or not.
In the past few years there has been significant regulatory
activity at a state level which aims to reduce electric storage
hot water and increase solar and gas ownership. There are
also moves to influence the type of water heater in new
homes in the Building Code of Australia (GWA 2007b). The
exact situation at a state level is complex and changing on
a regular basis, but a model of future ownership trends has
been developed on the basis of current state requirements
(which mostly affect new dwellings rather than replacements
at this stage). Water heating accounts for 27% of total
energy consumption in Australia and is mostly split between
electric storage and mains gas. Electric has been declining
in favour of mains gas for many years as the gas distribution
system expands (Figure 60). Solar systems have changed
little in share in the past 20 years and still have a small share,
although this is predicted to increase fairly quickly over the
next decade as a result of recent state policy initiatives (refer
to GWA 2007b for details).

Water heaters

These products are broken into:


Electric storage water heaters
Gas instant (LPG) water heaters
Gas instant (mains gas) water heaters
Gas storage (LPG) water heaters
Gas storage (mains gas) water heaters
Heat pump water heaters

Figure 59: Ownership Trends for Space Heaters in Australia

OWNERSHIP

0.50
Actual

0.45

Forecast

0.40
0.35

Electric
Heat
Oil Heat

Gas Heat

0.30
0.25

Wood Heat

0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

0.00

YEAR

Note: Electric heating includes resistive heating and reverse-cycle air conditioning (all types).

SECTION 6
85

match observed current rates of change it was determined


that about 0.4% per annum of the existing electric water
heater stock was being changed over to gas (in addition trends
associated with new homes).

A hot water demand model was developed to take into


account different average usage levels at a state level. An
assumed base consumption of 110 litres of hot water per
day per household was used this declines with household
size (50% was assumed to be fixed and not household
size dependent) and the overall hot water demand is also
expected to decline with an increase in hot water saving
devices such as low-flow shower heads (reduced by 5%
by 2020). Some small state-based adjustments to hot
water consumption were made to calibrate the total energy
consumption against known end-use data where available at
a state level (mostly state based utility data for controlled offpeak tariffs).

For modelling purposes, the following seasonal ambient


temperatures and cold water temperatures in Table 14
have been used. These are broadly comparable to the main
climate zones in AS4234 (which used monthly average values
for four climate zones).
The main attributes of interest for water heaters are dependent
on the water heater type. For electric storage systems,
the main parameter is heat loss (as the energy conversion
efficiency is assumed to be close to 100%). Data is based on
analysis of the market share by size derived from discussions
with manufacturers and analysis of BIS Shrapnel data (2006).
The heat loss values were also adjusted to account for a
general trend towards lower thermostat settings for storage
systems and reduced heat losses from off peak systems which
have limited hours of boosting (refer to AS/NZS1056.4).

The energy consumption embodied in this demand was


adjusted for average cold water temperatures by state.
Heat losses from storage type water heaters were adjusted
on the basis of average storage temperatures and ambient
temperatures by state. External hot water demand by clothes
washers and dishwasher, as generated by the stock model
for these products, was directly added on to the base hot
water demand.

For gas water heaters, the general performance parameters


were derived from the AGA gas water heater star rating
system (AGA 2007). Extensive test data on current products
plus development work on the new gas water heater test
method has also been used to develop parameters for
modelling purposes (E3 2006). Modelling data from the
recent Cost Benefit Analysis for MEPS for gas water heaters
(Syneca 2007) has been used to estimate the impact of a

The assumed share for each of the main types of water


heaters installed in new homes over the period 2006 to 2020
is shown in Table 13. It has been assumed that existing water
heaters will be replaced by like types in the baseline scenario
modelled, although some states are examining program
options to influence the type of replacement water heater. The
exception was in the ACT where in order that modelling would
Figure 60: Ownership Trends for Water Heaters in Australia

OWNERSHIP

0.7
Actual

Forecast

0.6

Waterheat
Electric
Waterheat
Gas

0.5
Waterheat
Other
0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

0.0

YEAR

APPLIANCE MODELLING METHODOLOGY


86

Waterheat
Solar

MEPS level of five stars to be introduced in 2008 (which


has been included in the baseline estimates). The main
parameters for storage systems are maintenance rate (heat
loss) and recovery efficiency. For instantaneous systems,
the main parameters are start-up energy and steady state
efficiency as defined in AS4552.
Solar type systems are extremely complex because there
are strong interactions between both climate and consumer
usage. Extensive modelling of solar systems by Graham
Morrison was commissioned for this project (Thermal
Design, 2007). In this report the following water heater types
were explicitly modelled under AS4234 and water heater
climate zones one to four inclusive and for hot water loads
of 0 MJ/day, 20 MJ/day, 40 MJ/day and 60 MJ/day (under
AS4234conditions):
Solar water heater standard flat plate in-tank electric
auxiliary (300 litre, 3.9 m2).
Solar water heater high efficiency flat plate in-tank
electric auxiliary (300 litre, 3.9 m2).
Solar water heater standard flat plate instantaneous in
line gas auxiliary (300 litre, 3.9 m2).
Solar water heater high efficiency flat plate in-tank gas
auxiliary (170 litre, 3.9 m2 and 2.5 m2).
Solar water heater evacuated tube collector in-tank
electric auxiliary (300 litre, 3.9 m2 and 2.5 m2).
Heat pump system (R134a) (300 litre, 750W).
Details of the solar water heater attributes used for modelling
are contained in Appendix D. Details of the climate zones,
assumed daily hot water profiles, seasonal usage profiles,
cold water/air temperatures and solar irradiation are set out in
Thermal Design (2007).

For modelling purposes, each of the AS4234 climate zones


for water heaters have been allocated to the states as set out
in Table 15.
The overall approach to modelling was to:
Determine the hot water energy demand by state.
Add in the hot water demand from clothes washers
(dependent on selection of water temperature and
connection type) and dishwashers by state.
Allocate the hot water load by ownership share this
assumes that hot water loads do not vary significantly
by water heater type while there is some anecdotal
evidence that some water heater types are more prevalent
in larger homes, there is no detailed data to support this at
themoment.
Determine the total energy requirement (including
conversion efficiency and storage losses) for the particular
water heater type this is a function of hot water load
(which varied by year and by state).
In the case of solar systems, calculate the solar contribution
for the hot water load and the relevant climate zone(s).
In the case of solar systems, subtract the solar contribution
to give a net estimated energy demand for boosting by fuel
by state by year. An explicit estimate of solar contribution
(in PJ) at a state level is also provided by this approach.
The case of heat pumps could not be adapted to the
approach noted above, so an effective COP function
was developed by climate zone and load level. The solar
contribution in this case was developed relative to the hot
water energy demand.
Overall hot water energy consumption estimates for electric
systems were verified against selected utility data for
controlled electric tariffs in NSW and Queensland which was
cited for this study on a confidential basis.

Table 13: Assumed Share of Water Heater Type by State in New Homes from 2006 to 2020
State

Electric

Gas Stor

Gas Inst

LPG Stor

LPG inst

Solar elec

Heat
pump

Solar gas
(a)

Solar gas
(b)

NSW

3.0%

30.0%

45.0%

1.0%

1.0%

6.0%

5.0%

2.0%

7.0%

VIC

2.0%

30.0%

34.0%

1.0%

1.0%

3.0%

2.0%

8.0%

19.0%

QLD

0.0%

8.0%

12.0%

5.0%

5.0%

50.0%

5.0%

3.0%

12.0%

SA

10.0%

10.0%

52.0%

1.0%

1.0%

8.0%

2.0%

3.0%

13.0%

WA

12.0%

42.0%

20.0%

1.0%

1.0%

3.0%

0.0%

7.0%

14.0%

TAS

50.0%

10.0%

18.0%

2.0%

3.0%

12.0%

1.0%

1.0%

3.0%

NT

10.0%

9.0%

3.0%

1.0%

1.0%

57.0%

0.0%

5.0%

14.0%

ACT

5.0%

30.0%

50.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

1.0%

4.0%

10.0%

Notes: Data developed on the basis of analysis of state based survey date refer to GWA 2007b. Solar gas (a) is a standard flat plate solar
system with integrated in tank gas boosting. Solar gas (b) is a standard flat plate solar system (electric tank with no boost element with in-line
instantaneous gas boosting).

SECTION 6
87

6.6.4

Cooking products

These products are broken into:


Electric cook-tops
Electric ovens
LPG cook-tops
LPG ovens
Mains gas cook-tops
Mains gas ovens
Microwave ovens are included in major appliances (refer
Section 6.6.5.4). Other secondary cooking products (such as
toasters, jaffle irons, espresso coffee machines, portable grills
and so forth) are not explicitly modelled for this project.
Energy consumption used for cooking has always been
fairly poorly documented. Only a few studies have directly

measured these end uses. Pacific Power (1994) measured


stoves (assumed to be a single appliance with a cook-top
and oven, usually called a range) at 363 kWh/year while
separate ovens were 233 kWh/year and separate cook-tops
were 187 kWh/year. This data probably underestimates the
energy for these end uses as there were only a small number
of appliances metered and several of the homes were known
to have multi-phase power supplies yet only one phase was
recorded by the metering equipment (BRANZ 2000). More
recent data from NZ suggests that ranges use about 536
kWh/year for all electric systems and 706 kWh/year for all
gas systems (about 2.5 GJ/year) (BRANZ 2006). A range
of other studies that used statistical methods to allocate
electric and gas energy for cooking using conditional demand
analysis estimate cooking loads somewhat higher than
the BRANZ data (although this varies by study). However
these are considered to be less reliable as the energy

Table 14: Assumed Average Annual Temperatures by Capital City for Hot Water Modelling (All Years)
State

Average annual ambient air temperature C

Average annual cold water temperature C

Sydney

18.2

18.3

Melbourne

15.5

16.2

Brisbane

20.5

21.0

Adelaide

16.4

17.9

Perth

18.4

20.7

Hobart

12.9

12.9

Darwin

27.7

28.0

Canberra

13.1

15.0

Source: Based on analysis of data from Bureau of Meteorology and data from the Water Services Association (EES 1999). Does not include
estimates of warming due to climate change.

Table 15: Assumed AS4234 Climate Zones by State


State

Assumed AS4234 Climate Zone

NSW

Zone 3

VIC

Zone 4

QLD

Average of Zone 1 and Zone 3

SA

Zone 3

WA

Zone 3

TAS

Zone 4

NT

Average of Zone 1 and Zone 2

ACT *

Zone 4

Note *: According to AS4234, ACT should lie in Zone 3, but the colder air and water supply temperatures are thought to better reflect actual
conditions in the ACT. However, winter irradiance is known to be higher than Zone 4, so this is slightly conservative for solar water heaters.
Zone 4 will be more accurate for conventional water heaters which are expected to dominate energy consumption in the medium term.

APPLIANCE MODELLING METHODOLOGY


88

estimates were implied using statistical analysis rather than


directmeasurements.
As shown in the previous table, third-party estimates for
cooking energy are somewhat variable. For cooking a very
coarse measure of energy service has been developed for
modelling purposes. For cook-tops this is a fixed heating
requirement of 0.6 GJ/year. This energy requirement is set
in 1985 and 50% of this is assumed to be fixed while 50%
is related to average household size. For example, in NSW
the estimated primary cook-top heat requirement falls from
0.6 GJ in 1985 to 0.55 GJ in 2020. This broadly aligns with
observed trends of a general gradual decline in cooking
energy resulting from changes in habits and practices
(more fast foods, more pre-prepared meals that require
less cooking, more eating out). The attributes for cook-top
efficiency (55% for electric, 35% for gas) are then applied to
this primary cooking requirement to estimate annual energy
consumption. In 2007, the average energy per cook-top was
estimated to be 288 kWh/year for electricity and 1.6 GJ/year
for gas.
For ovens, the primary task is set at 250 hours of oven use
per year. A fixed value for all years has been assumed as
there is little data available to gauge any changes in hours
of operation (even though it is expected that there may be
a small decline over time). The primary efficiency measure
for electric ovens is the total heat loss value which can be
determined by reference to AS1549. Any start-up energy
is assumed to be included within the hours of nominal
operation under hot conditions (when rated heat losses
occur). There is evidence that electric ovens have been
gradually reducing their average heat loss values over time
(refer to EnergyConsult 2002 and Choice 2007), despite no
energy programs being active for these products. Measured
heat loss data for 2007 for a range of under-bench ovens
was obtained from Choice (2007). For gas ovens, the heat
loss value is much higher due to poorer insulation and flue
losses and ventilation requirements a fixed value for all
years is assumed. Assumed data on heat loss trends for
modelling of ovens is included in attributes in Appendices E
to H. In 2007, the average energy per oven was estimated to
be 237 kWh/year for electricity and 1.7 GJ/year for gas.

Ownership data collected by ABS4602 for cooking products


has been poor for many years, so other data sources such
as BIS Shrapnel have been used as a primary data source
since 1990. Cooking products come as separate cook-tops
and ovens or as a single appliance with both functions, called
a range. Ranges are generally declining in favour of separate
appliances, with consumers favouring built-in bench cooktops and under bench or wall ovens. Most ranges are a
single fuel (either all gas or all electric), but some ranges now
offer a mix of fuels (mostly as a gas cook-top with an electric
oven). The general trend is for an increase in gas cooktops and an increase in electric ovens due to the superior
performance and control of these variants.
Trends in ownership by cooker type are shown in Figure 61.
Detailed state level data is available in Appendices E to H. In
the case of ranges, these are counted as a separate oven
and a separate cook-top for ownership and energy modelling
purposes. The values for gas include natural gas and LPG
these fuels are further split for modelling purposes. LPG is
more common for cooking than for space heating and water
heating due to the relatively low energy requirement. Fuel type
other is mostly wood (slow-combustion stoves and similar)
and this product type has not been explicitly modelled for this
study. Since the mid 1990s all households have had some sort
of main cooking appliance.

6.6.5

Major appliances

These products are broken into:


Clothes dryers
Clothes washers front (drum type)
Clothes washers top (agitator/impeller, including twin tub)
Dishwashers
Microwaves
Refrigerators and (separate) Freezers.

Table 16: Overview of Estimated Cooking Data Various Sources


Study

Survey Year

Cooking Energy
(all fuels) kWh/year

Cooking Energy
(electricity) kWh/year

Cooking Energy
(gas) kWh/year

941

1383

Bartels (1985)

1983

Bartels (1988)

1984

Fiebig & Woodland (1991)

1985

571

633

SECWA *

1985

760

1000

912

Note *: Values shown are added for ovens and cook-tops. SECWA report primary energy which for electricity includes generation,
transmission and distribution. A factor of 3 has been used to estimate end use electricity in this case.

SECTION 6
89

OWNERSHIP

Figure 61: Ownership Trends for Cooking Products in Australia


100%

Cooktop
electric

90%

Oven
electric

80%
70%
60%
50%

Cooktop gas
Oven Gas
No cooktop/
Other
Oven other

40%
30%
20%
10%

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

0%

YEAR

Figure 62: Ownership Trends for Major Appliances in Australia

OWNERSHIP

1.6
Actual

Refrigerator
Clothes Washer

Forecast

1.4

Freezer
Clothes Dryer

1.2

Dishwasher
Microwave

1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

0.0

YEAR

APPLIANCE MODELLING METHODOLOGY


90

Trends in ownership by major appliance type are shown in


Figure 62. Detailed state-level data is available in Appendices
E to H for all appliances.
Key issues for each of these products are discussed below.

6.6.5.1 Clothes dryers


Clothes dryer usage and ownership varies by state as this
is partly climate driven (refer to Appendices E to H). Usage
levels on average are generally low as there is still a strong
preference for outside line drying of clothes in Australia,
although there are some heavy users (high-density housing).
Ownership appears to be steady. Data on efficiency trends
is comprehensive as this is covered by the report Greening
Whitegoods (EES 2006b) which is used as the basis for
modelling. The share of auto-sensing dryers is currently about
45% and this is expected to grow to 70% by 2020. The
technical efficiency of dryers has improved only slowly over
the past 15 years. Usage patterns, load size and moisture
content tend to dominate in-use energy consumption.
Assumed usage levels (loads per year) at a state level have
been derived from analysis of diary data in ABS8218 in 1986.
Surveys by Choice, c-onfirmed by metering data, suggest
that average load sizes are close to 50% of rated capacity
and/or some loads are used only for completion of line
drying in poor weather. Pacific Power (1994) indicated annual
use of 123 kWh, which is thought to be low after the same
data was reanalysed (BRANZ 2000) to take into account
the higher share of high-density housing in the stock (when
compared to the sample metered) (high-density housing is
known to have a higher use of dryers). However, this value
is comparable to data measured in NZ (BRANZ 2006).
Modelled data for this study in 2007 suggests an average
annual energy consumption of about 150 kWh/year, which
includes a corrected share of high-density housing and state
weighting of annual uses per year as per ABS8218. This
energy value is about half of the energy label value. Assumed
loading for modelling is at 50% of rated capacity and loads
per year by state vary from 25 in NT, 47 in Queensland, 57
in NSW, about 65 in SA and WA and 82 in Victoria based
onABS8218.
Data on the stock average water extraction index (spin
efficiency) is imported from the clothes washer stock model
as an input into the dryer model (initial moisture content of
the load impacts on the energy used for drying).

6.6.5.2 Clothes washers


There has been a massive shift to front-loading clothes
washers since 2003. The rate of change varies to some
extent by state (WA and SA have the largest shift towards
front loaders) and these are expected to reach a 50% share
of new sales in 2007/08 from a base of about 15% in 2003.
The driver for the change is unclear, but probably related to
state subsidies from water authorities for more water-efficient

washers and growing community concerns about drought.


Mandatory water labelling (WELS), introduced in 2006, may
also be having some influence, although this has not been
quantified. A recent study by the Institute for Sustainable
Futures (2008) attempts to quantify the impact of WELS in
more detail (ISF 2008).
An average front loader (drum machine horizontal axis)
uses about 40% less water and 55% less energy compared
to an average top loader, so the shift in share by type is
having a strong downward impact on energy and water
consumption. Interestingly, there has been little change in
water consumption or water efficiency of drum machines
since 2000, while top loaders have improved their water
efficiency in recent years (presumably in response to WELS).
Capacity of all washer types has increased over the past 15
years (drum more so than other types) and spin performance
(water extraction index) has also improved markedly for all
types. The energy consumption of each type has also been
fairly stable for the past 10 years. Registration data together
with model sales data has been used to determine salesweighted values for all main parameters. Data on all attributes
has been comprehensively covered by the report Greening
Whitegoods (EES 2006b).
Data on actual frequency of use for washers is poor, as
ABS4602 frequency distributions are very coarse. However,
trends in washing temperature are well covered in this report.
There has been a strong trend towards cold washing for
many years and this has stabilised at about 70% of loads
washed by 2005 (typically 25% warm and 4% hot, varies by
state). The increased share of front loaders in the stock will
complicate this usage pattern as only half of the new frontloading models have dual-water connection (meaning that
warm/hot water is heated internally using electricity rather
than imported from the household water heater) and many
front loaders do not have options for true cold washing
temperatures (typically minimum program temperatures are
30C for many drum machines). These factors have been
taken into account in the attributes and stock model in that
the minimum wash temperature and energy by source is
included in the attributes. Note that wash temperature trends
are applied to the current stock (not the cohort by year of
units that enter the stock). These factors have been built
into the attribute files for each product type. The assumed
usage for clothes washers is 312 loads per annum. This
matches average values from a range of sources (Pacific
Power 1994). Typical metered end-use energy measurements
for clothes washers are about 65 kWh as historically these
measurements have been done on dual connect top-loading
washers. Modelled data for this report is consistent with
these values. However, end-use metering projects rarely
account for the energy in imported hot water, which varies
depending on the wash temperature selected by the user
these effects are explicitly modelled in this study. Few
end-use metering projects in Australasia have covered frontloading machines that heat water internally.

SECTION 6
91

The issue for partial loading of washers has not been covered
explicitly as there is only poor data on how washers respond
to part loads and this is highly variable for different models.
However, it is proposed that part-load testing will eventually
be included in the energy labelling requirements in the future.
External hot water consumption for clothes washers is used
as an input into the hot water stock model. The stock model
also calculates total water consumption for washers.

6.6.5.3 Dishwashers
Ownership has been steadily increasing in all states for the
past 30 years. Almost no new dishwashers have dual-water
connections available, which means that most heat water
internally, although some users still connect their machines to
a hot outlet (meaning that all fills are hot). Data on connection
modes and frequency of use is fairly poor as few surveys
record this configuration.
Capacity of all dishwashers has been fairly steady over the
past 15 years and has even fallen slightly over the past
five years. Energy and water consumption have improved
substantially over the past 15 years, but future savings for
energy and water are expected to be limited. Registration
data in combination with sales data has been used to
determine sales weighted values for all main parameters.
Data on all attributes is very good as this is covered by the
report Greening Whitegoods (EES 2006b).
Data on actual frequency of use for dishwashers is poor, as
ABS4602 frequency distributions for use are very coarse. The
assumed usage for dishwashers is 175 loads per annum.

6.6.5.4 Microwave ovens


Microwave ovens have now a very high penetration level
(about 90% in most states in 2005). Most third-party sources
suggest average usage is quite low and typically 50% of
the total energy is standby power. An assumed usage of
50 hours per year is used for modelling purposes, with the
remainder of the time on standby. About 90% of models
sold are now electronic (the 10% with mechanical controls
generally have no standby power consumption in most cases
EnergyConsult 2006).

6.6.5.5 Refrigerators and freezers


Refrigerator ownership is fairly uniform across states at 1.38
per home in 2007 (lowest in Victoria at 1.28 and highest in
Queensland at 1.48) and the ownership is continuing to climb
slightly. In contrast, ownership for separate freezers is about
0.4 and this varies by state (0.34 in NT, 0.64 in Tasmania) and
the ownership is declining in all states.
Data on efficiency trends is very good as this is covered by
the report Greening Whitegoods (EES 2006b). The impact of
MEPS in 1999 and 2005 has substantially reduced energy
consumption of new products since 2003.
An overall climate adjustment factor has been used to scale
the energy consumption reported on the energy label (which
is well documented in terms of sales weighted trends) to
estimate actual in situ energy consumption in each state. The
assumed adjustment factors by state are set out in Table 17.
It should be noted that while these factors may be broadly
representative of the stock of appliances, individual models
may respond differently to average temperature changes.
Surprisingly little data is available on the impact of ambient
temperature on energy consumption of refrigerators and
freezers given that ambient temperature has the single largest
impact on in-use energy consumption of these appliances. A
study conducted by ACA in 1990 (ACA 1990) measured 10
refrigerators and freezers in the laboratory and then in homes
over a period of two years, making this a most relevant study.
Energy data in the home was recorded quarterly and provides
an indication of seasonal variation. Some data is also available
in Europe (Enertech 1996), although this is to a different test
method ISO). The Pacific Power study yields no directly useful
data other than seasonal variation in energy consumption as
no information on the monitored refrigerators and freezers was
recorded. Some information from the BRANZ HEEP study
was available, but this was difficult to analyse as appliances
were generally only monitored for two to three months, which
does not allow seasonal variations to be fully estimated.
The response to ambient temperature for refrigerators and
to a lesser extent freezers, is significant, with the energy
consumption typically doubling with an ambient shift from
15C to 30C under static conditions (no food loads or door
openings). However, the response to ambient temperature
changes will vary by model as the insulation thickness and
the refrigeration system efficiency together dictate the overall
power response curve to heat load. Figure63, shows the
ambient temperature response of 17 different refrigerator
freezers tested under a range of laboratory ambient conditions
(EES 2007). Note that the Y axis is steady state power
consumption (in watts) and does not include the impact of
food loads, door openings or defrosting which will result in
higher power for these elements. It is important to note the
general impact of ambient temperature on energy, but also
to note that the ranking of individual models can change with
ambient temperature.

APPLIANCE MODELLING METHODOLOGY


92

6.6.6

Information technology products

covered are those that are often used in the home (even
though they may be owned by a householders employer).

These products are broken into:

Computer monitors are undergoing a rapid transformation


from CRT to LCD technology, although not as quickly as in
the business sector. About 50% of monitors in households
are now LCD and most should be changed by 2012, apart
from specialised screens for a few higher-end applications
(uncommon in households).

Computers desktop
Monitors (for desktop computers)
Computers laptop
Miscellaneous IT equipment (switched) (MITS)
Miscellaneous IT equipment (unswitched) (MITU)

Switched miscellaneous IT equipment covers those products


that have switches and which are likely to be turned on and
off with the computer. These include primarily printers and
computer speakers. Unswitched IT equipment covers a wide
range of items, including scanners, modems (broadband
and dial-up), hubs/switches, MFDs, routers, wireless access
points and so forth. Usage times are based on computer
usage and the remaining time is split between the modes
standby, off and disconnected. Unswitched products tend to
be left in standby more often while switched tend to be left in

Usage patterns for these products are outlined in Table


12. The main sources for this information are Connection
Research (2007), EES (2006a) and EES (2001). Attributes
have mostly been determined from field measurements
(EES 2001, EnergyConsult 2006, EES 2006a) and selected
laboratory measurements.
All Information Technology equipment is difficult to model
as usage patterns in households are not well documented
and the lifespan is short and stock turnover is high. Laptops

Table 17: Climatic Adjustment Factors by State for Refrigerators And Freezers (all years)
Year

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

NZ

Refrigerators

90%

85%

95%

90%

90%

80%

100%

90%

80%

Freezers

85%

80%

90%

85%

85%

75%

95%

85%

75%

Note: Adjustment factor in this table include additional energy for food loads door openings and defrosting.

Figure 63: Impact of Ambient Temperature of Energy Consumption of 17 different Refrigerator/Freezers

STEADY STATE ENERGY (W)

110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

AMBIENT TEMP (C)

SECTION 6
93

off mode. Both types are sometimes disconnected. Standby


is the main energy driver (especially where products are left
in active mode when the computer is off). In 2005 there were
1.5 switched items per computer and 1.7 unswitched items
per computer.

6.6.7

Home entertainment equipment

These products are broken into:


DVDs (players and recorders, including those with hard
drives and tuners)
Home entertainment other (mostly stereo components
such as amps, CD players, personal music systems, tape
players, integrated and portable stereos etc)
Games consoles

6.6.7.3 Set-top boxes


Subscription (Pay TV) set-top boxes are now in about 25%
of homes and this is expected to climb steadily. These are
of concern from an energy perspective as they cannot be
switched off or disconnected without creating problems
(security/log in protection by service providers), but new
models have much better energy characteristics. Ownership
of digital set-top boxes (converter for use with analogue
televisions) is still low (14%) although this is expected to peak
at 70% in 2012 with the phase out of analogue broadcasts.
MEPS in 2009 will reduce the expected energy consumption.
Many DVD hard-disk recorders now have digital tuners so
there is some cross-over with this product category and also
many new televisions have integrated digital tuners that may
reduce potential future demand for converters.

Set-top box free-to-air digital


Set-top box subscription

6.6.7.4 televisions

Television CRT

Televisions are the product with perhaps the most dramatic


transformation in recent years. The market has moved
rapidly from CRT screens to LCD (Figure 64). In 2006, LCDs
accounted for 27% of sales and by mid-year in 2007 (GfK
2007) they accounted for almost 50% of sales (ahead of the
projections in Figure 64). GfK data covers over 95% of the
market and includes sales of some 1.9 million televisions per
year by model. This suggests that LCDs will dominate the
market by 2010.

Television LCD
Television plasma
Television projection
Video Cassette Recorder (VCR) (including DVD combos)
This is a product group that has been changing rapidly
for many years as technologies come and go. This makes
modelling energy trends quite difficult as new end uses
appear quickly and existing ones become obsolete. Usage
patterns for these products are outlined in Table 12. The
main sources for this information are ABS4602, Connection
Research (2007), EES (2006a) and EES (2001). Attributes
have generally been determined from field measurements
(EES 2001, EnergyConsult 2006, EES 2006a) and selected
laboratory measurements.

6.6.7.1 DVDs and VCRs


About 25% of new models now have recording capability and
a hard drive with a tuner (50% assumed by 2020), mostly as
replacements for VCRs. Many are now available with digital
tuners and so will partially replace set-top boxes. VCRs are
now basically obsolete and can only be purchased as a DVD
player combo and are likely to disappear from the market
completely by 2010.

6.6.7.2 Games consoles


Games consoles are now present in over 35% of homes.
On and standby power consumption for these products are
relatively high which is of concern. However, survey data
suggests that a large proportion are off or disconnected when
not in use, which means the energy impact is moderate.

Prices for large-screen televisions have fallen dramatically in


the past four years (Figure 65) which is clearly driving sales.
Figure 66 and Figure 67 are based on GfK sales data (covering
some 1.8 million sales). This data was purchased by DEWHA.
Interestingly, LCD prices are remaining steady but the average
size for these units is increasing rapidly: the average LCD TV
has increased from a sales-weighted average of 46 cm in 2003
to 73 cm in 2006. CRT models are declining in size (slightly)
while plasma models are increasing only slightly. However, the
rapidly increasing market share of LCD models means that this
technology dominates future energy consumption estimates.
Rear-projection types are likely to disappear shortly and front
projection will hold a small niche.
For the determination of energy consumption, size is the single
most important factor. This means that on-mode power for
LCD televisions is set to increase rapidly as shown in Figure 67.
The hours per week that televisions are on was estimated
from Pacific Power (1994) data (for about 20 televisions over
a year in 1994) and BRANZ (2006) (113 televisions for shorter
periods over 10 years). Despite surveys of consumer viewing
habits which suggest 30 or so hours per week, metered data
suggests that televisions are normally left on for much longer
periods (which also reflects that in most households there are a
number of independent viewers). Pacific Power data suggests
hours of operation per week at about 45 hours in 1994 while
BRANZ data suggests an average of about 53 hours per week

APPLIANCE MODELLING METHODOLOGY


94

SALES SHARE

Figure 64: Historical and Projected Share of New Televisions by Technology Type

100%

CRT

90%

LCD

80%

Plasma
Rear Proj

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

0%

YEAR

Source: EES 2007

Figure 65: Average Price Paid by Television Technology Australia

PURCHASE COST PER UNIT ($AU)

$10,000
$9,000

Plasma
Rear Proj
LCD

$8,000

CRT

$7,000
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
2003

2004

2005

2006
YEAR

Note that these projections are based on the current relationship between size and power based on several hundred readings for televisions
(using the new IEC test pattern) and do not take into account proposed MEPS levels for 2010 and energy labelling of televisions (both of which
are still being finalised). The other factor that may have an impact (and which has not been included) is the introduction of new television
technologies which may reduce energy consumption for future models. Modulating backlight systems in large LCD technologies, Field Effect
Displays (or SED) (Harrington 2006) and Organic LED systems (OLED) all hold the promise of further energy reductions, which may to some
extent counter the massive recent increase in screen sizes.

SECTION 6
95

Figure 66: Average Sales Weighted Size by Television Technology Australia

SCREEN SIZE (CM)

160
140

Rear Proj
Plasma
CRT

120

LCD

100
80
60
40
20
0
2003

2004

2005

2006
YEAR

Figure 67: Projected Power Consumption of New Televisions by Technology Australia

ON MODE POWER (W)

350
300
250
200
150
100
50

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

YEAR

APPLIANCE MODELLING METHODOLOGY


96

Plasma
CRT
LCD

in recent years for all televisions (64 hours per week in living
rooms). BRANZ have indicated that all televisions have high
usage except for the few that are located in bedrooms. For
modelling purposes in this study a composite stock model
for televisions was used, with an average use of 2100 hours
per year in 1992 (40 hours/week) rising to 2700 hours in 2010
(51.5 hours/week) then to 2800 hours in 2020.
The stock model for televisions has difficulty in replicating
the likely flow of new primary and secondary televisions in
the home as well as their (possibly different) usage patterns.
It is thought (with little hard evidence) that new televisions
will be used as the primary appliance in most cases and
that existing primary units which are replaced will be mostly
retained and used in secondary locations in the same home.
This is supported to some degree by the current ownership
of over 2.0 televisions per house (stock of about 16 million
units) which is rising steadily and sales of two million units per
year (that is 25% of households purchase a new television
each year). So for modelling purposes a fairly conservative
usage pattern is applied to all televisions. But it is likely that
new larger televisions will be used for longer hours than
the average assumed (and conversely smaller secondary
televisions used for less hours) so the energy model is
probably conservative in its estimates (ie underestimates
future energy). Despite this, energy for televisions is set to
soar over the next decade unless stringent measures to
contain their energy consumption are introduced.
From a modelling perspective, the flow of the stock from a
primary to a secondary device with different usage patterns
is very hard to replicate mathematically without considerable
additional complexity. An initial attempt is not possible at this
stage given the very poor level of data available. Another
factor is that very little information on the likely life span of
the new dominant technologies is yet to emerge (as they
have only had market presence for a few years). Therefore
the stock model average life that is based upon data for
CRT types may not be representative for new flat-screen
technologies. More detailed end-use monitoring and better
market data together with more in-depth survey work over
the coming years may provide better data for modelling future
energy demand from televisions.

6.6.8

Other equipment

These products are broken into:


Electric kettles
Lighting
Pools electricity
Pools gas heating
Spas electricity
Spas gas heating
Water beds
Other standby

6.6.8.1 Electric kettles


Electric kettles (or jugs) are present in almost every home.
Initial estimates put their usage level at one litre of boiled
water per person per day which equates to about 90 kWh/
year for an average home in Australia. However this excludes
start-up losses and waste. Metering data from NZ suggests
that an average annual consumption of about 152 kWh/
year (BRANZ 2006) (which equates to more like 1.5 litres
per person per day once this is corrected for cold water
temperature differences). An assumed value of 1.5 litres
per person per day has been used for modelling purposes
(national average of 135 kWh/year in 2005) using cold water
temperatures by state as specified for hot water systems in
Table 14, which was intended to include start-up losses and
waste. For this study, boiling and/or chilled water dispensers
have not been modelled as there is no ownership data and
they are still rare in households (despite being significant
energy consumers).

6.6.8.2 Lighting
Lighting is a complex area and considerable work was put
into improving the end-use model for this study. Unfortunately
there is little metering data against which to confirm the base
assumptions. The basic approach is set out in a separate
paper prepared by George Wilkenfeld and Associates as part
of this project (GWA 2007a). The main technologies included
are incandescent, quartz halogen, linear fluorescent and
compact fluorescent. The following parameters are used to
estimate lighting energy:
Technology energy efficiency (see Appendices E to H).
Typical lighting levels (lux) in living areas and non-living
areas by technology type (see Appendices E to H).
Resulting power density for each lighting type (calculated).
Technology share by floor area for living and non-living
areas (see separate Appendices E to H).
Share of floor area for living and non living areas (40%/60%
modelled).
Total average floor area per house (which has been
increasing) (from building stock model).
Usage in living (two hours per day per fitting) and non living
areas (0.4 hours per day per fitting).
While the phase out of inefficient incandescent lamps has been
built into the projections, there are a number of uncertainties
regarding quartz halogen. There are already fluorescent dropin replacement lamps to replace QH bulbs and it is expected
that within a few years high output white LED replacement
lamps will also be available. These technologies have not been
built into the future projections. While these technologies offer
a 50% to 70% energy reduction over QH lamps, the lighting
levels from these fixtures is still high. The price of compact
fluorescent lamps has fallen substantially in recent years and
these are now common purchases for householders.

Other electricity

SECTION 6
97

The data on which modelling is based is still fairly sketchy,


but many of the input variables could be improved with some
simple measurements and audits of typical homes over the
coming years.
Third-party estimates for lighting are rare. Pacific Power
(1994) measured whole-house lighting circuits for one year
for 300 homes and report an annual energy of 566 kWh/year,
although this may exclude some lighting on mixed circuits
and secondary lighting sources run from power points (eg
standard and desk lamps). BRANZ report a total lighting
figure of 915 kWh/year in NZ in recent years (BRANZ 2006)
which is likely to be a more complete figure. The Pacific
Power figure is lower because of the omission of some
lighting types and also due to the increased penetration of
quartz halogen systems in recent years which will increase
total lighting consumption. The stock model average for
Australia is set at 721 kWh/year in 1994 rising to a peak of
908 kWh/year in 2005.

6.6.8.3 Pools and spas


Pools and spas were examined in a separate study by
George Wilkenfeld and Associates (GWA 2007a). The
outputs from that report were input directly into the stock
model. The estimates looked at pool filter pumps, pool/spas,
pool heating systems (solar and gas) and separate spas and
their heating systems (gas). That report should be consulted
for details. The impact of future programs for MEPS and
labelling of these products has not been included in the
baseline estimates.

6.6.8.4 Water beds


Water beds have a low penetration (around 3% to 5%) but
their energy use is significant. A flat figure of 750 kWh/year
is used for NSW, which is based on direct annual metering
of water beds by Pacific Power in 1994. The energy value
for each state has been adjusted on the basis of the ratio of
the temperature difference between the water bed operation
(assumed to be 34C) and the average ambient temperature
in Table 14, over the temperature differential for NSW times
the energy value for the Pacific Power measurement. This
gives an energy ratio of 1.0 for NSW, 0.4 for NT and 1.3 for
Tasmania. In reality ambient bedroom temperature will not be
as extreme as the outdoor ambient, but this is considered to
be a reasonable initial state based correction for this product.

6.6.8.5 Other standby


Other standby has been estimated from the findings on
the 2000 and 2005 intrusive standby studies (EES 2001,
EES 2006a). This covered all things that were not explicitly
modelled as a separate appliance or product as part of the
stock model but used some power when connected to the
mains. Of course there is a very long list of products in this
category, but some of the more common examples are, air

fresheners, answering machines, battery chargers (many


types including tools), bread-makers, clock radios, cordless
phones, electric toothbrushes and razors (rechargeable),
external power supplies (not otherwise covered, eg chargers
for mobile phones, cameras, MP3 players, video camcorders
etc), power-boards (some have surge protection or neon
lights that consumer a small amount of power), radios,
remote garage door openers, security systems, sensor lights
(sensing part), smoke alarms, timer switches and so forth.
For these product types there were some 38 items per home
actually connected in this category, but many were in off
mode or disconnected (unplugged) (a total 24.3 were actually
connected) and the standby power levels were mostly low,
so the contribution to total energy was modest. However,
the number of items per home is projected to increase over
time. Many of the equipment types within this end use will be
affected by the one watt standby policy.
The model outputs show that total electricity consumption of
these miscellaneous standby products is currently about 330
kWh/year per household. Explicit modelling of other standby
in individual product modules (about 20 or so products per
house) accounts for a further 420 kWh/year, giving a total
standby of 750kWh/year, which aligns closely to the estimate
in EES (2006a).

6.6.8.6 Miscellaneous electricity


Other electricity is a small adjustment of 200 kWh/year for all
households to make up for end uses not otherwise covered
by the model. This covers a wide range of end uses such
as power tools, fish tanks, vacuum cleaners, small kitchen
appliances (those not normally on standby), pumps, portable
or plug based lamps (eg desk lamps or night lights), electric
blankets, range-hoods, irons and so forth.
Some of these items are common with low use (eg vacuum
cleaners and toasters have been metered in NZ and typically
used 20 kWh/year BRANZ 2006) while some of these
products are rare but may use considerable energy when
present (eg water pumps). However, overall electricity from
these items is generally small in an average household. This
figure was adjusted down to 100 kWh for QLD and NT and
up to 300 kWh/year for TAS ACT, VIC and NSW to provide
a better total electricity fit at a state level. This observed
disparity in miscellaneous electricity use between states
suggests that much of the residual miscellaneous electricity
load is likely to be at least partly heating related (secondary
heaters in bedrooms or heat lamps in bathrooms, towel rail
heaters etc). This allowance only accounts for 3.5% of total
electricity consumption, which means that the end-use model
explicitly covers 96.5% of electricity consumption and virtually
all gas and LPG energy consumption.

APPLIANCE MODELLING METHODOLOGY


98

SECTION 7

HOUSING STOCK MODELLING METHODOLOGY

7 Housing stock
modelling
methodology

Figure 68: Schematic of Housing Stock Model

Stock Number 1986

7.1 Overview

Stock Area 1986

New Stock
Entering Population

The housing stock model draws upon available data to


establish a profile of housing in Australia over the past 20
years with projections into the future. The available data
allowed disaggregation of the stock as follows:

Retirements
(Demolition)
Of Existing Stock

By jurisdiction (States and Territories).


By housing type (detached, semi-detached, low-rise flats,
high-rise flats).
By wall construction (lightweight, brick veneer and
heavyweight).

Conversion
(Renovation)
Of Existing Stock

By floor type (suspended timber or concrete).


By insulation (none, ceiling only and both ceiling and wall).
The housing stock model was constructed in three steps.
Firstly a base year was established. This base year
1986, coincided with the last major survey of housing
characteristics undertaken by the ABS. From the base
year (end of financial year 1986) to end of financial year
2005 annual ABS data on new building activity was used
in conjunction with many secondary data sources to
establish stock levels in each of the intervening years. Finally,
projections of housing stock numbers and profile were
compiled until 2020 based on a business as usual case.
The housing stock model used in this study is summarised
in Figure 68. As noted previously, the start of 1986 point
coincides with the best available stock data on housing
characteristics (ABS No 8212.0 1987 National Energy
Survey). From this year onwards, survey data relating to the
construction and size of all new dwellings constructed in
Australia was collected by the South Australian branch of the
ABS (ABS 2006). This data (new stock entering population)
was then folded into the stock model for each year from
1986 to 2004. The model then tracks both dwelling numbers
and floor area.
The major inputs into the model include:
New housing Entering the Stock Detailed ABS data on
number, construction and floor area of all new dwellings
constructed between 1986 and 2005 (ABS 2006).
Retirements of Existing stock A retirement function
based on known demolition rates reported in the Victorian
jurisdiction acts to remove a small percentage of the existing
stock each year.

Adjustment
(eg Vacancy)

Augmentation
of Floor Area
(Extensions)
Time Series Stock
Numbers Disaggregated
By
State
Type
Construction

Augmentation of Floor Area through renovations


Floor areas were adjusted upwards annually according to
the rate of floor area augmentation through renovations
based on several years of survey data collected by BIS
Shrapnel(1994).
Various Adjustments Various adjustments were applied
to the model to account for known disparities between ABS
new housing approvals numbers and actual realisation rates
as well as year-to-year variations in vacancy rates as reported
by the ABS. A final adjustment was made to the stock to
ensure that estimates matched census data for household
numbers (but not ABS intercensal data that was found in
some cases to be unreliable) as well as the ABS household
number projections post-2001.

Conversions of Existing Stock Stock numbers for


particular construction types are adjusted to account for the
retrofitting of insulation to their roof spaces.

HOUSING STOCK MODELLING METHODOLOGY


100

Time Series Stock


Area Disaggregated
By
State
Type
Construction

7.2 Stock characteristics /


categorisation

In order that estimates of space conditioning potential can


be made, thermal performance simulation modelling was
required to be undertaken on a representative sample of
the residential building stock. Therefore it was necessary to
define the stock in terms of the key parameters that form the
inputs into the thermal performance modelling tool AccuRate.

construction, whereas a proportion of low-rise apartments


use light-weight type constructions. Secondly, high-rise
apartments are on average likely to have a greater number of
shared external surfaces compared to low-rise apartments ie
the proportion of ground floor and top floor apartments in a
high rise development will be significantly less than in a lowrise apartment (eg in a
two-storey development all apartments will have either an
external floor or ceiling/roof, in a 20-storey apartment block
only 5% will have an external floor and 5% have an external
ceiling/roof).

The major stock related inputs required for AccuRate that


affect performance are as follows:

7.2.3

7.2.1

Overview

Dwelling styles

Glazing area, type, shading

The term dwelling styles refers to the plan layout, spatial


design and architectural features that define the dwelling. The
problem in trying to categorise the elements of style is that
there are almost an infinite number of variations within the
existing stock. Clearly it is impractical to either determine the
full range of variations or to model them. Instead a pragmatic
approach was adopted. A set of generic dwelling styles was
used to cover the following categories of dwelling types:

Level of infiltration (air leakage)

Detached single storey

Spatial details floor plan data, ceiling heights, floor


areasetc
Orientation
Basic construction types floor, wall and roof
constructioncombinations
Insulation

Clearly there would be, within the existing stock, an almost


infinite number of variations and combinations of the above
factors. Therefore it was necessary to select a range of
combinations and variations that could adequately represent
the actual range of combinations and variations known to be
in existence. In carrying out this process regard was given
only to those factors that were likely to significantly affect
thermal performance.
The selection rationale is defined in the following sub-sections.

7.2.2

Dwelling types

Residential building stock was categorised into three main


types or classifications as defined in the Building Code
ofAustralia:
Class 1a (i) detached houses.
Class 1a (ii) attached dwellings (including town houses,
terrace houses and villas).
Class 2 buildings containing two or more sole occupancy
units (flats).
Class 2 dwellings were further classified into two subcategories; low rise (four storey or less) and high rise
(more than four storey). For this study ABS buildings
approval data was collected from 1991 to 2005 based on
a disaggregation of flats into those of four storeys or less
and those above four storeys. Flats were divided into low
and high rise for two main reasons. Firstly, the construction
profile associated with high-rise apartments is somewhat
different to that for low-rise apartments, in particular highrise apartments invariably use heavyweight (concrete) floor

Detached two storey


Semi-detached dwelling
Low-rise flat
High-rise flat (corner and non corner units)
Performance-based dwelling
Categorisation into these differing types was important for
two reasons:
Each of the above types generally represents a different
form of dwelling in terms of the number of shared walls and
or floors/ceilings. For example, a detached dwelling has
no shared surfaces whereas a high-rise apartment may
have only one non-shared envelope surface. Such shared
surfaces effectively reduce heat transfer into and out of the
building envelope and as such can significantly impact on
the thermal performance of the building shell.
ABS data used to develop the stock model (ABS 2006)
indicates that the penetration of each of these different
types of dwellings is changing over time. To ensure that the
model accurately reflects the performance of the stock it
is important that each of these types is separately tracked
over time.
Actual designs were drawn from a survey undertaken by
Energy SA for a related study. The survey included an
extensive range of historical and contemporary dwelling
styles found in SA. Modelling for South Australia included the
full range of these styles whereas modelling for other states
only utilised selected samples that were considered to be the

SECTION 7
101

most generic11. These generic designs tended to be simple


designs that would be associated with the output of volume
builders since the 1950s.
While the plans are generic, they are modelled through a
representative range of construction types, insulation options
and for each of four orientations (north south, east and west).
In addition, the floor area is adjusted to match the average
floor area (ABS 2006) for each year studied.
The performance-based dwelling refers to those dwellings
that have been designed to meet a particular thermal
performance requirement such as the ACTHERS scheme
in the ACT or the requirements embodied within recent
revisions to the Building Code of Australia. Over the past few
years this type of dwelling has become the norm in most
states12. For these types of dwellings their performance is not
defined based on thermal performance simulation modelling
of a representative dwelling but rather by the stringency
of the particular performance requirement as adopted by
the jurisdiction in which it was built. From 2005 onwards
all new dwellings fall into this category. Full details of these
performance based requirements can be found in Sections

11 The model has been designed such that should other states wish to
offer more comprehensive samples of their particular stock of dwellings
(particularly older styles) then these can be incorporated into the model.
The advantage of having a comprehensive set of historical dwelling types
applicable to a particular state is that it then allows for the accurate
modelling of policy options designed to address the thermal performance
shortcomings of that stock.
12 Noting that often this will take the form deemed to satisfy provisions rather
than true performance standards as adopted in Victoria. For the purposes
of this study it has been assumed that where the deemed to satisfy
compliance route has been used that it will deliver an average performance
equivalent to the performance goal nominated for that jurisdiction.

7.4.2 (existing stock), 7.4.3 (projected new stock) and 8.3.2


(basis for performance level).

7.2.4

Construction formats

The construction type of the floor, walls and to a lesser


degree the roof affects both the insulating characteristics
and the thermal mass of the building shell. For the purposes
of modelling and based on ABS data (ABS 2006), a set of
the most common floor/wall combinations were selected
to represent the full range of major construction types
(Table18). In addition, a performance-based type of
construction was included, allowing for any specified level
of thermal performance to be applied to given sections of
the stock, particularly newer stock affected by recent policy
initiatives at both state and federal levels.
Penetration levels for the various wall construction types in
the existing stock were determined through reference to the
ABS National Energy Surveys for 1980 (ABS8212.0, 1981),
1983 (ABS8212.0, 1984), 1986 (ABS8212.0, 1987) and 1994
(ABS 4602.0, 1994) and to ABS building approvals data from
1996 to 2005 (ABS 2006).
The ABS surveys also provided survey data on wall and
ceiling insulation levels by type of wall construction. Wall
constructions in these ABS studies were categorised
asfollows:
Brick veneer
Double brick
Stone
Weatherboard
Fibro cement
Other

Table 18: Construction Formats Modelled


Construction*

Description

Lightweight/Timber Floor

Timber or metal framed walls with sheet cladding and suspended timber floor

Lightweight/Concrete Floor

Timber or metal framed walls with sheet cladding and a concrete raft slab floor**

Brick Veneer/Timber Floor

Brick or block veneer walls, internal timber or metal wall frame and a suspended timber floor.
Category also Includes pre-cast concrete walls with internal framing

Brick Veneer/Concrete floor

Brick or block veneer walls, internal timber or metal wall frame and a concrete raft slab floor.
Category also includes pre-cast concrete walls with internal framing

Heavyweight/Timber Floor

Cavity Brick or block or pre-cast concrete and suspended timber floor

Heavyweight/Concrete Floor

Cavity Brick or block or pre-cast concrete and a concrete raft slab floor

Performance-based Dwelling

Performance based on specified stringency levels applied at the time in the particular
jurisdiction

Notes:
* Variations in Roof types were not considered in this study, as generally speaking roof type (as distinct from roof insulation) has a
comparatively small effect upon thermal performance.
** Note: Combinations of lightweight structure with concrete floor were found to be relatively uncommon.

HOUSING STOCK MODELLING METHODOLOGY


102

The process of converting this data into our selected


construction types required assumptions as follows:
That construction noted as stone be classified as double
brick construction.
That constructions noted as weatherboard, fibro
cement and other be classified as lightweight.
ABS provided no survey data in relation to floor types see
Section 7.3.6 for details regarding penetration estimates for
the various floor types.

7.2.5

Insulation provisions

The extent to which insulation is added to ceilings walls


and floor affects the thermal performance of the shell by
limiting heat flow into and out of the shell. For the purposes
of modelling, a set of the most common floor and ceiling
insulation combinations were selected to represent the range
of major insulation installation types.
The combinations were as follows:
None
Ceiling only
Walls and ceiling
Combinations including floor insulation options were
not considered as, generally speaking, floor insulation
is uncommon and has the least effect upon thermal
performance as compared to ceiling and wall insulation.
R values for wall and ceiling insulation were selected on the
following basis:
Walls R=1.0 was selected as being closest to a stock
average. This approximates the long-term value of reflective
foil mounted on the outside face of the studs, or alternatively
about 50mm of bulk insulation. Until recent times these
two options predominated the housing market as the most
common forms of wall insulation. Higher levels can be found
in more recently constructed dwellings but the vast majority
of the stock with wall insulation present are expected to have
a relatively low insulation rating.
Ceilings The market tendency in the past has been to
install less than the recommended financial optimum level of
ceiling insulation due to the law of diminishing returns. Many
dwellings with ceiling insulation constructed before the mid
1990s would have used only reflective foil, 50mm to 75mm
of fibreglass or blow-in materials, that have a tendency for
the long-term value to be rather less than the initially installed
value due to settling. In more recent times R2.5 or better has
become the norm, taking into account the historically low
levels of insulation applied to the roof space a stock average
of R1.5 was adopted for this study.
By combining the various basic construction types with
the various insulation options, a set of construction type/

insulation options designed to represent the bulk of known


combinations were created (Table 19).
Construction types that might fall outside this range
(others) were assumed to be evenly distributed in terms of
performance characteristics among these defined types.

7.3 Base year estimates


1986
7.3.1

Overview and data sources

ABS National Energy Surveys were conducted in 1980,


1983, and 1986. The surveys included details of outer wall
construction by type of ceiling and type of wall insulation13.
A further (similar) survey was conducted in 1994 but did not
include details of outer wall construction.
As the 1986 survey was the last comprehensive survey of
the stock of Australian housing this was used as a base point
from which to start estimates of the stock. Details of the data
available from the 1986 survey are provided in Section 7.3.2.
While the 1986 survey can be considered to be the most
comprehensive of the ABS surveys, it did however have some
notable deficiencies in terms of the requirements of this study.
In particular the following short comings wereidentified:
There was no disaggregation of stock numbers by type of
dwelling (ie detached, semi detached, flats etc.
There was no disaggregation of wall type by type of
dwelling (ie detached, semi-detached, flats etc).
There was no disaggregation of insulation by type of
dwelling (ie detached, semi-detached, flats etc).
There was no data regarding the floor type, a significant
factor in determining the performance of the dwelling in
many climates.
These shortcomings were addressed by various means as
described in the following sections.

7.3.2

Data from the 1986 ABS National


Energy Survey

7.3.2.1 Stock numbers by wall type


In the 1986 ABS National Survey, stock numbers were
reported in terms of the following wall types (Table 20):
Double brick
Brick veneer
Stone, concrete, concrete block
Weatherboard, timber
13 Details of roof construction were also provided but were not considered
as generally speaking roof type (as distinct from roof insulation) has a
comparatively small effect upon thermal performance.

SECTION 7
103

Table 19: Construction Type / Insulation Combinations


Construction Type

Basic Construction

Insulation

Lightweight / Timber Floor

None

Lightweight / Timber Floor

Ceiling Only

Lightweight / Timber Floor

Ceiling and Wall

Lightweight / Concrete Floor

None

Lightweight / Concrete Floor

Ceiling Only

Lightweight / Concrete Floor

Ceiling and Wall

Brick Veneer / Timber Floor

None

Brick Veneer / Timber Floor

Ceiling Only

Brick Veneer / Timber Floor

Ceiling and Wall

10

Brick Veneer / Concrete Floor

None

11

Brick Veneer / Concrete Floor

Ceiling Only

12

Brick Veneer / Concrete Floor

Ceiling and Wall

13

Heavyweight / Timber Floor

None

14

Heavyweight / Timber Floor

Ceiling Only

15

Heavyweight / Timber Floor

Ceiling and Wall

16

Heavyweight / Concrete Floor

None

17

Heavyweight / Concrete Floor

Ceiling Only

18

Heavyweight / Concrete Floor

Ceiling and Wall

19

Performance-based

20

Others

Table 20: Housing Stock Numbers (000s)* by State and Construction Types (ABS 1986))
Construction

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

Double Brick

319.1

144.6

30

226.7

283.4

13.9

4.9

10.8

1033.4

Brick Veneer

490.1

599.5

193.5

95

41.2

51.7

2.1

59.9

1532.9

Stone, Conc., Block

33.6

37.8

42.4

81.8

11.1

5.9

5.7

2.2

220.5

W. board, Timber

256.2

318.5

326.8

17.2

24.5

55.4

1.7

1001.4

Fibro /Asbestos

284.4

49.3

114.8

31.6

71.6

4.6

2.6

559.3

Other

68.4

33.7

24.2

3.8

3.9

7.1

6.9

0.5

147.9

Total

1451.8

1183.4

731.7

456.1

435.7

138.6

23.2

75.1

4495

* Primarily refers to detached and semi detached housing types. (Note: these are referred to by the ABS as separate houses,
townhousesand villas)

Table 21: Penetration of Wall Construction Types (%) by State Condensed (ABS 1986)
Construction

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

Lightweight

39

32

62

11

22

46

22

36

Brick Veneer

35

52

27

21

10

39

13

80

35

Heavyweight

25

16

10

68

68

15

65

17

29

HOUSING STOCK MODELLING METHODOLOGY


104

penetrations of wall type by housing type was required, this is


detailed in Section 7.3.4.

Fibro /asbestos and


Other
For the purposes of this study it was considered adequate
to categorise wall types into just three types, each type
encompassing construction types with similar thermal
performance characteristics. These types were:
Lightweight (including weatherboard, timber and fibro/
asbestos)

7.3.2.2 Stock numbers by roof insulation and


wall type
In the 1986 ABS National Survey, the prevalence of roof
insulation was reported as a function of the wall construction
type. (Table 22). Roof insulation types reported included:

Brick veneer

Batts and blankets

Heavyweight (including double brick, stone, concrete and


concrete block)

Foil

The various construction types noted in the ABS survey were


aggregated into the three types used for this study and the
penetration of each type was determined by dividing the total
for that type by the total of all types less the other types
(see Table 21 and Figure 69). That is, those classified by the
ABS as other wall types were excluded from the calculation,
these types represented only about 3% of the stock and their
performance characteristics were unknown.
It is expected that the prevalence of these three types of wall
construction is going to vary according to the type of housing
(detached, semi-detached, low-rise and high-rise flats).
Unfortunately the ABS did not disaggregate its 1986 survey
data by house type so an alternative approach to estimating

Granular / loose fill


Foam
Other
The various wall construction types noted in the ABS
survey were aggregated into the three types used for this
study. Next, the penetration of roof insulation in each type
was determined by dividing the aggregated total of roofs
nominated as insulated for that type of wall by the total
of that wall type. Those dwellings where the respondent
nominated that they did not know if the roof was insulated
were not counted (see Table 23 and Figure 70).

Table 22: Housing Stock Numbers With Roof Insulation (000s) by Construction (ABS 1986)
Construction

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

Double Brick

123

73.9

10.5

154.4

145.1

6.7

1.1

8.4

523.2

Brick Veneer

291.4

462.3

57.8

72.5

20.1

35.3

0.0

48

987.8

Stone, Conc., Block

11.8

22.3

8.4

36.5

3.6

2.8

3.1

1.6

90.0

W. board, Timber

93.2

177.7

32.7

10.6

6.5

21

0.0

0.0

342.7

Fibro /Asbestos

135.9

29.2

15.6

17.8

24.7

2.2

1.5

0.0

227.1

Other

32.7

21.5

3.9

1.5

1.5

4.4

3.6

1.1

68.6

Total

688.0

786.9

128.9

293.3

201.5

72.4

9.3

59.1

2239.4

Table 23: Penetration of Roof Insulation (%) by Wall Construction Type (ABS 1986)
Construction

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

Lightweight

47

63

12

63

37

41

42

87*

41

Brick Veneer

66

85

34

84

53

73

68*

89

71

Heavyweight

41

63

32

68

56

53

78

86

55

All Types

52

74

20

71

51

56

68

87

55

* Note: In the case of lightweight construction in the ACT and brick veneer construction in the Northern Territory the sample size was too small
to give any meaningful result. In these cases the overall average for the jurisdiction was used instead.

SECTION 7
105

PENETRATION

Figure 69: Penetration of Wall Construction Types (%) by State Condensed (ABS 1986)

100%

Heavy Weight

90%

Brick Veneer

80%

Light weight

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

JURISDICTION

PENETRATION BY WALL TYPE

Figure 70: Penetration of Roof Insulation (%) by Wall Construction Type (ABS 1986)

100%

Light weight

90%

Brick Veneer

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

JURISDICTION

HOUSING STOCK MODELLING METHODOLOGY


106

Heavy Weight
All Types
(includes
"other")

7.3.2.3 Stock numbers by wall insulation and


wall type
In the 1986 ABS National Survey, the prevalence of wall
insulation was reported as a function of the wall construction
type. (Table 24). Wall insulation types reported included:
Batts and blankets
Foil

Detached (separate house)


Semi-detached (semi-detached house and medium
density)
Low-rise flat/unit

Other

High-rise flat/unit

The various wall construction types noted in the ABS survey


were aggregated into the three types used for this study and
the penetration of wall insulation in each type was determined
by dividing the aggregated total of walls nominated as
insulated for that type of wall by the total of that wall type
but not counting those dwellings where the respondent
nominated that they did not know if the wall was insulated
(see Table 25 and Figure 71).
As only the presence of either wall insulation or ceiling
insulation was recorded in the ABS surveys, it was assumed
for the purposes of this study that those dwellings with
wall insulation were a subset of those dwellings with ceiling
insulation. This assumption is based upon the knowledge
that until recently the application of wall insulation has been
relatively uncommon and tends to be used only in better
quality housing or by energy conscious builders/owners. In
these circumstances ceiling insulation is also likely to have
been installed.

7.3.3

For the purposes of this study it was considered acceptable


to categorise house types into just four types, each type
encompassing construction types with similar thermal
performance characteristics. These types were:

Disaggregation of stock numbers by


dwelling type

The 1986 ABS survey did not provide any disaggregation of


the stock by dwelling type. However, an ABS study, Housing
Survey Characteristics of Dwellings ABS 4133.0-1988
(Table 26) did provide a split of the Australian housing stock
at a state level into the following categories:
Separate house
Semi-detached house
Medium density
Low-rise flat/unit
High Rise flat/unit.
While the 1988 ABS study was conducted two years after
the 1986 study, it was considered that the penetrations of
each of these dwelling types would be almost identical to
those in 1986. In the intervening years a total of only about
4% of new stock would have been added and the profile of
the new stock is unlikely to have diverged greatly from that of
the stock in 1986.

Using the 1988 ABS survey data the various dwelling types
noted in the ABS survey were aggregated into the four types
used for this study and the penetration of each type was then
determined by dividing the aggregated total for that type by
the total of all types (Table 27).

7.3.4

Disaggregation of wall type by


dwelling type

The prevalence of the different types of wall construction


identified in Section 7.3.2 will vary according to the type of
dwelling as identified in Section 7.3.3. For instance the ABS
data suggests that 36% of all Australian housing is of light
weight construction (see Table 21), however this type of wall
construction is known to be uncommon in flat construction
especially high rise flat construction where fire regulations
and requirements for robustness of materials favours the
use of other than light weight construction forms. It would
be expected that for flats the prevalence of lightweight
construction would be lower than the 36% average and
conversely it would be higher for detached dwellings14.
Unfortunately no data was available regarding the
disaggregation of wall type according to the type of dwelling,
so estimates based on related data sources and informed
assumptions were used as follows:
High-rise flats For high-rise flats built up until 1986 (only
about 1% of the national stock in 1988) it was assumed
that the wall construction was heavyweight. In more recent
times lighter weight materials have become more popular in
combination with large areas of glass.
Low-rise flats For low-rise flats built up until 1986 (7.9% of
the national stock in 1988) the prevalence of each construction
type was based on the earliest available new flat construction
survey data from the ABS buildings approvals database.
The first five years of available data from 1992 to 1996
was averaged to provide penetrations by wall type noted in
Table28.

14 Because detached dwellings in Australia in 1986 accounted for the


majority of housing (exceeded 80%) the difference between the averages
for all dwelling types and the levels observed in detached dwellings will
besmall.

SECTION 7
107

Table 24: Housing Stock Numbers With Wall Insulation (000s) by Construction (ABS 1986)
Construction

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

Double Brick

13.8

14.7

4.4

12.2

5.3

1.7

0.0

0.0

53.3

Brick Veneer

82.6

153.5

43.8

28.3

3.6

18.2

0.0

11.6

341.8

Stone, Conc., Block

0.0

3.6

1.5

3.3

0.0

0.6

0.0

0.0

11.1

Weatherboard, Timber

38.1

57.1

15.7

3.7

3.2

4.7

0.0

0.0

122.6

Fibro /Asbestos

45.9

15.9

16.6

11.2

8.5

1.3

1.5

0.0

101.0

Other

24.6

10.3

4.4

0.4

0.7

1.6

3.0

1.6

43.0

Total

205.0

255.1

86.4

59.1

21.3

28.1

4.5

13.2

672.8

Table 25: Penetration of Wall insulation (%) by Wall Construction Type (ABS 1986)
Construction

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

Lightweight

18%

24%

8%

34%

14%

11%

42%

17%*

17%

Brick Veneer

21%

35%

28%

39%

10%

42%

29%*

24%

29%

Heavyweight

4%

12%

9%

6%

2%

13%

6%*

6%*

6%

All Types

17%

29%

14%

15%

6%

24%

44%

22%

18%

Note: In the case of lightweight and heavyweight construction in the ACT and brick veneer and heavyweight construction in the Northern
Territory the sample size was too small to give any meaningful result. In these cases the national average was used instead. While this is not
considered a reliable basis for estimate, the numbers of dwellings affected as a proportion of the national total is very small.

Table 26: Housing Stock Numbers (000s) by Dwelling Type (ABS 1988)
Dwelling type

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

1490.8

1174.4

771.9

392.2

422.2

136.5

32.3

70.5

4490.8

Semi-Detached House

43.4

37.0

16.8

41.3

31.8

3.4

0.6

2.0

176.5

Medium Density

109.1

125.2

53

47.2

29.8

10.4

6.6

8.7

389.8

Low-Rise Flat/Unit

237.9

93.9

50.4

19.1

18.8

5.2

5.8

6.2

437.3

High-Rise Flat/Unit

39.7

5.2

5.3

1.5

7.3

0.0

1.5

0.9

61.4

1920.9

1435.7

897.4

501.3

509.9

155.5

46.8

88.3

5555.8

Separate House

Total

Table 27: Housing Stock Penetrations (%) by Dwelling Type (ABS 1988)
Dwelling type

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

Detached House

77.6

81.8

86.0

78.2

82.8

87.8

69.0

79.8

80.8

Semi-Detached House

7.9

11.3

7.8

17.7

12.1

8.9

15.4

12.1

10.2

Low-Rise Flat/Unit

12.4

6.5

5.6

3.8

3.7

3.3

12.4

7.0

7.9

High-Rise Flat/Unit

2.1

0.4

0.6

0.3

1.4

0.0

3.2

1.0

1.1

HOUSING STOCK MODELLING METHODOLOGY


108

Table 28: Assumed Penetration of Wall Type (%) Low Rise Flats (1986)
Construction

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

Lightweight

27

20

28

10

Brick Veneer

57

100

36

94

35

100

32

Heavyweight

38

38

99

46

69

58

All Types

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Figure 71: Penetration of Wall Insulation (%) by Wall Construction Type (ABS 1986)

PENETRATION BY WALL TYPE

45%
40%

Light weight
Brick Veneer
Heavy Weight

35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

JURISDICTION

Semi-detached For semi-detached dwellings built up until


1986 (10.2% of the national stock in 1988) the prevalence
of each construction type was simply based on the stock
averages reported in the 1986 survey (Table 21).

of either ceiling insulation, wall insulation or floor insulation


installed by type of dwelling at a national level only. In this
study floor insulation was ignored as it only accounted for
about 0.3% of the stocksurveyed.

Detached Based on the stock averages reported in the


1986 survey adjusted for the assumed penetrations for all
other forms of housing as noted above. Generally the low
incidence of light weight construction in flats resulted in
a higher than average incidence of this type in detached
dwellings (than would be suggested by the 1986 survey
results). Assumed penetrations are detailed in Table29.

The types of dwelling categories included in the survey were:

7.3.5

Disaggregation of insulation type by


dwelling type

Data regarding the disaggregation of insulation types by type


of dwelling was not available for our base year of 1986. The
most pertinent available data was derived from the ABS4602
Environmental Issues Peoples Views and Practices,
June 1994. This survey provided data regarding the presence

Detached dwellings
Semi-detached dwellings (one storey and two or
morestoreys)
Flats (attached to dwellings, one or two storey, three storey
and four or more storey)
The prevalence of each form of insulation by state in 1986
(derived from the 1986 ABS National Survey) was then used
as the basis to modify the national figures from the 1994
survey to more accurately reflect the penetration of insulation
types by type of dwelling and wall construction at a statelevel
(see Table 30).

SECTION 7
109

Table 29: Assumed Penetration of Wall Type (%) Detached Dwellings (1986)
Construction

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

Light weight

46

35

65

11

24

47

22

39

Brick Veneer

33

49

27

18

10

39

15

80

36

Heavy Weight

21

17

71

66

14

63

18

25

All Types

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Table 30: Implied Penetration of Insulation By Dwelling Type and Wall Construction (1986)
House Type / Wall Construction

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

Detached / Lightweight

33%

43%

5%

32%

25%

33%

0%

79%

27%

Detached / Brick Veneer

50%

55%

7%

51%

48%

35%

43%

72%

47%

Detached / Heavyweight

41%

57%

25%

70%

60%

45%

80%

90%

55%

Semi-Detached / Lightweight

24%

32%

3%

24%

19%

24%

0%

58%

20%

Semi-Detached / Brick Veneer

37%

41%

5%

38%

35%

26%

32%

53%

35%

Semi-Detached / Hweight

31%

42%

19%

52%

44%

33%

59%

66%

40%

Flats / Lightweight

9%

12%

1%

9%

7%

10%

0%

23%

8%

Flats / Brick Veneer

15%

16%

2%

15%

14%

10%

13%

21%

14%

Flats / Heavyweight

12%

17%

7%

20%

17%

13%

23%

26%

16%

Roof / Ceiling Insulation Only

Roof / Ceiling Insulation Plus Wall Insulation


Detached / Light weight

21%

28%

10%

40%

16%

13%

48%

19%

19%

Detached / Brick Veneer

24%

41%

32%

45%

12%

49%

33%

28%

33%

Detached / Heavyweight

5%

14%

11%

6%

2%

16%

7%

7%

7%

Semi-Detached / Lightweight

7%

9%

3%

13%

5%

4%

16%

6%

6%

Semi-Detached / Brick Veneer

8%

14%

11%

15%

4%

16%

11%

9%

11%

Semi-Detached / Hweight

2%

5%

4%

2%

1%

5%

2%

2%

2%

Flats / Lightweight

3%

4%

2%

6%

3%

2%

8%

3%

3%

Flats / Brick Veneer

4%

6%

5%

7%

2%

8%

5%

4%

5%

Flats / Heavyweight

1%

2%

2%

1%

0%

2%

1%

1%

1%

Detached / Lightweight

46%

29%

86%

28%

59%

54%

52%

2%

54%

Detached / Brick Veneer

26%

4%

61%

4%

40%

17%

23%

0%

19%

Detached / Heavyweight

54%

29%

64%

24%

38%

40%

13%

4%

39%

Semi-Detached / Lightweight

69%

59%

93%

63%

76%

71%

84%

35%

74%

Semi-Detached / Brick Veneer

55%

45%

84%

47%

61%

58%

56%

37%

54%

Semi-Detached / Hweight

68%

53%

78%

46%

55%

62%

38%

31%

57%

Flats / Lightweight

87%

83%

97%

84%

90%

88%

92%

74%

89%

Flats / Brick Veneer

82%

77%

93%

78%

84%

82%

82%

75%

81%

Flats / Heavyweight

87%

81%

91%

79%

82%

85%

76%

73%

83%

No Insulation

HOUSING STOCK MODELLING METHODOLOGY


110

7.3.6

Disaggregation of floor type by


dwelling type

Unfortunately, unlike for wall construction types, no stock


data relating to the penetration of floor construction types is
available through the ABS. It is known that only two main types
of floor construction exist. These types are suspended timber
floors and concrete floors. Concrete floors can be further
divided into slab on ground type and suspended type with
the former being by far the more dominant type, particularly
for detached dwellings. Advice received from the Cement and
Concrete Association of Australia (for the 1999 version of this
study) indicated that concrete slab on ground construction
in non-flat-type residential buildings was effectively unknown
prior to 1970 and since that time it has continued to gain an
increasing share of the new housingmarket.
For non flats, ABS Buildings Approvals Data from 1992
was used to determine the percentage of dwellings newly
constructed in that year with concrete floors in each state
and territory. A linear regression was then applied (assuming
that the penetration in 1970 was zero) to determine the
approximate percentage of the stock of housing in 1986 (base
year) that would have had a concrete floor the results of this
analysis is presented in Table 31.
For flats, buildings approvals data from 1992 to 2005 was
used to determine the average percentage of flats built over
that period that were constructed with concrete floors by
state and territory. It was assumed that in the base year of
1986 the penetration rates observed in approvals data (1992
to 2005) would have applied to the stock (Table 32). In reality
this is likely to lead to a small underestimate in the number of
flats with timber floors but in the absence of any other data
this was the best estimate available. Estimates for penetration
by floor type was further refined by assuming that all highrise flats had concrete floors15 only and that the incidence
of timber floors can be solely attributable to low-rise flats
(ie four storey or less). Based on the above assumptions,
penetrations by floor types were estimated for each dwelling
type in each state in 1986 (Table 33).

In addition to the various inputs the model also had several


adjustment factors applied, details of these adjustment
factors can be found in Section 7.5.

7.4.2

New stock entering the population


1987 to 2005

Rather than simply relying on ABS annual household stock


number estimates as the basis for the stock model it was
decided that a model that incorporated a stream of new
dwellings entering the stock model would provide greater
flexibility and accuracy, particularly in intercensal years where
ABS estimates of total household numbers are considered
less than optimal.
For example, comparing ABS Building Approvals Data, ABS
population increase data and ABS household estimates for
NSW (Figure 72), it can be seen that the rate of household
number increase estimate of 1988 (circled) is an implausible
result. Following referral of this issue to the ABS16, the advice
received suggested that the ABS intercensal estimates of
household numbers at a state level should not to be relied
upon. ABS intercensal estimates are based upon various
parameters but primarily upon labour force survey data17 of
a limited sample of households (<30,000 Australia-wide).
Data available from the ABS on new housing approvals
indicates that addition of new housing stock occurs at an
average rate of about 2% of existing stock per annum. This
varies from state-to-state and year-to-year. Since the base year
(1986), additions of new housing have ranged from 120,000 to
180,000 new dwelling approvals per annum nationally.
Since 1986, the ABS SA buildings section has been
collecting data from all relevant jurisdictions across Australia
on the number of residential building approvals. For this
study the data sourced from the ABS (ABS 2006) was
disaggregated asfollows:
By state
By year
By dwelling type

7.4 Model inputs


(Post -1986)
7.4.1

By wall construction type18


By floor construction type18

Overview

The previous section detailed how the characteristics of the


stock were established for the base year of 1986. From this
base year, four main inputs were folded into the stock model
for each year from 1986 to 2005 (see Figure 4). The following
four sections detail each of these inputs.

15 Generally for buildings over four storeys a requirement for concrete floors is
effectively mandated through fire rating requirements in the building code.

16 Phillip Browning of the Australian Bureau of Statistics (02 6252 6639


Canberra Office).
17 Phillip Browning of the Australian Bureau of Statistics (02 6252 6639
Canberra Office).
18 Note: Prior to 1992 wall and floor construction data was available only
for detached-type dwellings and not for semi-detached or flats. As an
approximation for the penetration of the various wall and floor construction
types for semi-detached and flats, the average penetrations of these
constructions during the following five years (1992 to 1996) were assumed
to apply to these preceding years (1988 to1991).

SECTION 7
111

Table 31: Estimates of Penetration of Concrete Floors in Detached Dwellings in 1986


Parameter

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

% of new houses (excl. flats) with concrete floors in


1992 (ABS)

56%

57%

43%

93%

98%

53%

34%

79%

63%

Implied % pa growth in concrete floors since 1970


(assuming linear growth)

3%

3%

2%

4%

4%

2%

2%

4%

3%

Implied % of new houses (excl. flats) built in 1986


with concrete floors

41%

41%

31%

68%

71%

39%

24%

57%

46%

Implied % of stock (excl. flats) in 1986 with


concretefloor

7%

7%

5%

11%

11%

6%

4%

9%

7%

Table 32: Estimates of Penetration of Concrete Floors in Flats in 1986


Parameter

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

% of new flats with concrete floors average 1992 to


2005 (ABS)

96%

97%

94%

99%

97%

82%

79%

100%

95%

% of flats that were high rise in 1986 (ABS)

14%

5%

10%

7%

28%

0%

21%

13%

12%

Implied % of low rise flats with concrete floors

81%

92%

84%

92%

69%

82%

58%

87%

82%

Assumed % of high-rise flats with concrete floors

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Table 33: Estimates of Penetration by Floor Type in All Dwelling Types in 1986
Dwelling Type / Floor Construction

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

Detached / Timber

93%

93%

95%

89%

89%

94%

96%

91%

93%

Detached / Concrete

7%

7%

5%

11%

11%

6%

4%

9%

7%

Semi Detached / Timber

93%

93%

95%

89%

89%

94%

96%

91%

93%

Semi Detached /Concrete

7%

7%

5%

11%

11%

6%

4%

9%

7%

Flat/low Rise / Timber

19%

8%

16%

8%

31%

18%

42%

13%

18%

Flat/low Rise / Concrete

81%

92%

84%

92%

69%

82%

58%

87%

82%

Flat High Rise / Timber

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

Flat High Rise / Concrete

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Table 34: Stock of Dwellings Insulation Characteristics 2005 (ABS)


NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

With Insulation (%)

54.4

72.3

43.2

78.2

65.6

74.6

49.2

78.5

60.5

Without Insulation (%)

24.8

9.2

35.5

8.7

20.4

12.2

16.4

3.6

20.6

Did not Know (%)

20.7

18.5

21.3

13.1

14.0

13.2

34.4

17.9

18.9

HOUSING STOCK MODELLING METHODOLOGY


112

NUMBER

Figure 72: Comparison of Household, Building Approval and Population Estimates ABS

100,000

ABS Hhold Increase Estimate (3101.1)

90,000

Build. Approval (from prev. year)

80,000

Population Increase P.A. (ABS)

70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

YEAR

Wall construction noted as stone in the ABS survey data


was categorised as heavyweight construction for the
purposes of this study and wall constructions noted as
weatherboard, fibro cement and other were categorised
as lightweight construction.
The ABS new housing approvals data included no
information regarding insulation levels in new dwellings, so
approximate insulation rates had to be inferred from known
insulation levels within the stock as reported by the ABS in
the base year of 1986 and in the most recent survey from
ABS 4602.0:2005 (Table 34).
Because the number of respondents who did not know if
their dwellings were insulated was relatively high (13.2% to
34.4% depending upon location) there is naturally a degree
of uncertainty regarding the actual rates of insulation in new
housing built between 1986 and 2005. Generally the rates
adopted were as follows:
Flats: 70% uninsulated, 20% ceiling only insulated and 10%
ceiling and wall insulated
Detached and semi-detached:
NSW, QLD and NT 60% uninsulated, 20% ceiling only
insulated and 20% ceiling and wall insulated;

SA and Tas: 20% uninsulated, 40% ceiling only insulated


and 40% ceiling and wall insulated.
During this period 1987 to 2005, to varying degrees each
jurisdiction introduced minimum performance standards
for part or all of the new stock of dwellings built in that
jurisdiction. For this study these dwelling types are referred to
as performance based dwellings. The assumed penetration
for these performance based dwellings was determined
through reference to each jurisdiction (Table 35). From this
table it can be seen that in some jurisdictions such as the
ACT, MEPS has been in place for many years, in other
jurisdictions such as NSW, MEPS (known as the Energy
Smart Program) has been in place since 1999 but not as a
universal requirement throughout NSW, in these circumstances
estimates of the penetration of the scheme in each year of
its operation (Table35) were made based on advice from the
NSWGovernment.
As noted earlier, for these types of dwellings, their
performance is not defined based on thermal performance
simulation modelling of a representative dwelling but rather
by the stringency of the particular performance requirement
as adopted by the jurisdiction in which it was built. Full
details of these performance based settings can be found in
Section8.3.2.

VIC19, WA and ACT 40% uninsulated, 20% ceiling only


insulated and 40% ceiling and wall insulated; and

19 Note: With the introduction of mandatory insulation standards in Victoria


in 1991/02 the rates were assumed to have altered to: 10% uninsulated
(ie the expected level of non compliance), 0% ceiling insulated and 90%
ceiling and wall insulated.

SECTION 7
113

Table 35: Performance Standards (star ratings) and Penetrations (%) by Jurisdiction
Jurisdiction

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

NSW (Energy Smart)

Nil

Nil

3.5*

3.5*

3.5*

3.5*

3.5*

3.5*

3.5*

5%

20%

35%

50%

65%

80%

100%

VIC

Nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

QLD

Nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

SA

Nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

WA

Nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

TAS

Nil

NT
ACT (ActHERS)

Nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

4*
100%

3.5*

3.5*

100%

100%

4*

4*

50%

100%

4*

4*

50%

100%

4*

4*

100%

100%

3.5*

3.5*

100%

100%

Nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

4*

4*

4*

4*

4*

4*

4*

4*

4*

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

Table 36: Estimated Number of New Dwellings Entering the Stock from 2006 to 2020 (000s)
Year

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

2006

47.4

38.8

47.6

9.2

20.3

2.8

1.0

2.7

169.8

2007

47.5

37.2

46.8

8.9

20.8

2.8

1.4

2.4

167.8

2008

47.5

37.3

47.4

9.0

20.8

2.8

1.5

2.4

168.8

2009

47.7

37.5

48.0

9.0

21.1

2.9

1.4

2.3

169.9

2010

48.0

37.8

48.8

9.0

21.4

2.8

1.4

2.4

171.5

2011

48.6

38.2

49.6

9.0

21.6

2.8

1.5

2.3

173.7

2012

48.4

38.0

50.0

8.8

21.5

2.7

1.4

2.3

173.2

2013

48.0

38.1

50.2

8.8

21.6

2.6

1.4

2.3

173.0

2014

48.1

38.2

50.6

8.7

21.7

2.6

1.4

2.3

173.7

2015

48.4

38.3

51.4

8.7

21.9

2.6

1.5

2.3

175.1

2016

48.3

38.2

51.7

8.5

21.9

2.5

1.4

2.3

174.9

2017

48.0

38.2

51.8

8.4

21.8

2.4

1.4

2.2

174.3

2018

47.4

37.7

51.7

8.1

21.8

2.2

1.4

2.2

172.6

2019

47.4

37.6

51.9

8.1

21.9

2.3

1.4

2.2

172.8

2020

47.3

37.6

52.2

8.0

21.8

2.2

1.4

2.2

172.9

HOUSING STOCK MODELLING METHODOLOGY


114

7.4.3

Projected new stock entering the


population beyond 2005

Numbers of new dwellings entering the stock of dwellings


estimated for this study are detailed in Table 36.

7.4.3.1 Numbers of new dwellings entering


the stock

7.4.3.2 Type of new dwellings entering the


stock

From 2006 to the end of the study period (2020) estimates


of new stock entering the population were required as input
into the stock model. For these future projections (noting that
at the time of preparation of the model, 2005 data was the
latest available) ABS household projections to 2020 were
relied upon as the basis for determining total numbers of
dwellings expected to be added to the stock in each of these
years. Details of the ABS projections can be found in Section
5 of this report.

Prior to the introduction of performance standards for


new housing, the type of housing constructed (detached,
semi-detached or flats) was a significant determinant of its
performance. Because all projections (post-2005) assume
minimum performance standards for all new dwelling types,
the type of housing constructed is of less significance in this
respect. However, the type will to some degree influence the
total floor area constructed and thereby influence potential
heating and cooling loads.

The process of estimating new dwelling inputs was as follows:

Trends in dwelling types were examined from pre 1990


to 2005. With the exception of the two least populous
jurisdictions (Northern Territory and the ACT) the trend has
been reasonably similar in all states (see national trend in
73). Since the late eighties there has been a trend towards
fewer new detached dwellings and more non-detached
dwellings, particularly flats. This trend was most evident
throughout the 1990s and into the first few years of the new
millennium. However, from 2000 until 2005 the trend has
been towards a tapering off in the growth of flats, except in
the ACT and NT. Over this period, penetrations of each type
of the three main dwelling types appear to have stabilised.
On this basis it was decided that, for the purposes of
making projections to 2020, it would be assumed that the
penetration of each of the three main types of dwellings in

The ABS forecast total number of households in each


jurisdiction in each year was used as a target value.
The number of new dwellings per annum input into the
model was then adjusted (using a MS-excel macro) such
that the output of the model in terms of total occupied
household numbers matched that of the target value.
This process was repeated for each year from 2006 to
2020 and for each of the eight jurisdictions.
This methodology allowed for expected retirements of stock
and shifts in vacancy rates (at a state level) over time to be
factored into the estimate of new dwellings entering the stock.

NEW APPROVALS (%)

Figure 73: Trends in New Housing Types in Australia from 1988 to 2005

90%

Detached

80%

Semi Detached

70%

Flats

60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

0%

YEAR

SECTION 7
115

new constructions would be set as equivalent to the average


observed in each jurisdiction over the five-year period 2001
to 2005 (Table 37).

7.4.3.3 Performance of new dwellings


entering the stock
From 2006 to 2020 it has been assumed that all new stock
shall meet specified minimum performance standards. These
standards (Table 38) were determined either on the basis of
announced policy or on advice of likely policy, provided by
either the particular state jurisdiction or DEWHA.
The model allows for multiple upgrades to the performance
levels over time. However, no assumptions have been made
beyond 2010. That is, the levels expected to be in place in
2010 are maintained for the remainder of the study period.

7.4.4

Retirements of existing stock

Retirements of existing stock (demolitions) affect both the


relative penetrations of various construction types and the
gross floor area of the entire stock. Unfortunately, no data
regarding demolitions could be found in any state except
Victoria. In Victoria, only numbers of demolitions since the
start of 1998 have been recorded by the State office of
the Building Control Commission (available at: http://www.
buildingcommission.com.au/pulse/html/434-pulsebuildingwork.asp).
This database indicates that in Victoria, demolitions ranged
from approximately 3000 to 4000 dwellings per annum or
0.15% to 0.24% of the stock. An average demolition rate
of 0.18% of stock was determined from the eight years of
available data for Victoria and this was then applied nationally.
On this basis, each year the stock model developed for this
study removes 0.18% of the estimate for total stock in the
previousyear.
Demolitions are expected to mainly affect the older stock. As
older stock construction types are more prevalent than more
recent construction types, the application of this demolition
rate equally over the existing stock numbers will tend to
result in the deletion of a higher proportion of the older stock
construction types (as would be expected). This methodology
is relatively unsophisticated but given the very small
proportion of demolitions each year, is considered adequate,
especially given that no data is available on the profile of
demolished stock.

7.4.5

Conversion of existing stock

Many different forms of modifications are undertaken to


a dwelling throughout its life. This study is naturally only
concerned with such modifications where they are likely to
impact on the thermal performance of the building shell and
consequently on the potential heating and cooling loads.
Even with this limitation, it still leaves a significant range of

modifications that could be considered; retrofitting of double


glazing, fitting of draft seals, erection of shading devices20
etc. Some of these are relatively insignificant in terms of their
application (eg retrofit of double glazing) and most are difficult
to quantify from the available data or lack of data.
Retrofitting of ceiling insulation was, however, a form
of modification that can significantly affect the thermal
performance of the dwelling, is a relatively common practice,
and for which there is some data available.
In 1994, BIS Shrapnel determined through survey (BIS
Shrapnel 1994, Study to investigate the alterations and
additions sector of the housing industry) that nationally
there were 79,000 retrofits of ceiling insulation at an average
cost of $777. This cost figure would suggest that retrofitting
was consistently done to entire roof spaces rather than
selected sections only. This number of 79,000 retrofits
represents 1.2% of the total stock in 1994 (6.6 million
dwellings), or more significantly, approximately 3.32% of the
number of dwellings that were estimated in this study to be
uninsulated in that year (2.4 million dwellings).
This figure of 3.32% per annum was used as the basis for the
rate of retrofitting of ceiling insulation used within the stock
model. The national average figure was, however, adjusted
on a state-by-state basis in accordance with the known
penetration of ceiling insulation within the stock. That is, in
states with historically high levels of stock with ceiling insulation
already fitted, it was assumed that the historical rates of
retrofitting would have been higher than for those states with
low levels of stock with ceiling insulation fitted. From the base
national rate of 3.32% per annum, rates for each state were
adjusted in proportion to the penetration of ceiling insulation
within the stock of that state. The actual rates adopted are
detailed in Table 39. While the retrofit rates in states such as
Victoria and the ACT were set higher than those for states
such as Queensland and NSW those rates are applied to a
lesser proportion of the stock of dwellings in those states.
Stock numbers for particular construction types were
adjusted within the model to account for the retrofitting of
insulation to their roof spaces. This process in effect shifted
a proportion of the stock each year (proportions as noted in
Table 39) from one sub set of construction types (uninsulated)
to another sub-set of construction types (ceiling insulated).
This conversion process did not affect the total number or
floor area of the stock.
It is recognised that the basis for this estimate of ceiling
insulation retrofit is not ideal, having been based on data
more than 10 years old and relying upon assumptions made
by the authors. However, until such time that better data
becomes available these estimates will have to suffice.

20 In the case of shading devices, some adjustment for the known tendency
of some householders to provide shading was consciously adopted in the
simulation process (see Section 8.8.4).

HOUSING STOCK MODELLING METHODOLOGY


116

Table 37: Projected Penetration (%) of House Types By State from 2001 to 2005
Dwelling Type

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

Detached

51.9

72.5

66.7

80.6

82.3

90.5

54.8

51.3

67.1

Semi Detached

16.7

11.9

12.0

13.7

10.1

7.5

16.2

8.4

13.0

Flat

31.5

15.6

21.3

5.7

7.6

2.1

29.0

40.3

19.9

Table 38: Performance Standards (star ratings) and Penetrations (%) by Jurisdiction
Jurisdiction

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

NSW (Basix) 1

4*
100%

4*
100%

4*
100%

4*
100%

4*
100%

4*
100%

4*
100%

VIC 2

4.5*
100%

4.5*
100%

4.5*
100%

5*
100%

5*
100%

5*
100%

5*
100%

QLD 3

3.5*
100%

3.5*
100%

3.5*
100%

4*
100%

5*
100%

5*
100%

5*
100%

SA 4

4*
100%

4.5*
100%

5*
100%

5*
100%

5*
100%

5*
100%

5*
100%

WA 5

4*
100%

4.5*
100%

5*
100%

5*
100%

5*
100%

5*
100%

5*
100%

TAS 6

4*
100%

4*
100%

4*
100%

4.5*
100%

4.5*
100%

5*
100%

5*
100%

NT 7

3.5*
100%

3.5*
100%

3.5*
100%

3.5*
100%

4*
100%

5*
100%

5*
100%

ACT 8

4*
100%

4.5*
100%

5*
100%

5*
100%

5*
100%

5*
100%

5*
100%

2019-20

>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>

4*
100%
5*
100%
5*
100%
5*
100%
5*
100%
5*
100%
5*
100%
5*
100%

1. 4 Star rating in AccuRate is assumed to be approximately equivalent to the standard prescribed in Basix.
2. 4.5 Stars is an approximation of the average performance standard during the Transitional period (shaded) in Victoria whilst the dispensation
for timber floored dwellings is phased out.
3. 4 Stars is an approximation of the average performance standard during the transitional period (shaded) in Qld from 3.5 Stars to 5 Stars.
4. 4.5 Stars is an approximation of the average performance standard during the transitional period (shaded) in SA from 4 Stars to 5 Stars.
5. 4.5 Stars is an approximation of the average performance standard during the transitional period (shaded) in WA from 4 Stars to 5 Stars.
6. 4.5 Stars is an approximation of the average performance standard during the transitional period (shaded) in TAS from 4 Stars to 5 Stars
whilst the dispensation for timber floored dwellings is phased out.
7. 4 Stars is an approximation of the average performance standard during the transitional period (shaded) in NT from 3.5 Stars to 5 Stars.
8. 4.5 Stars is an approximation of the average performance standard during the transitional period (shaded) in ACT from 4 Stars to 5 Stars.

Table 39: Assumed Rates of Ceiling Insulation Retrofit by Jurisdiction


Jurisdiction

Assumed % of uninsulated Dwellings retrofitted PA

NSW

3.1%

VIC

4.1%

QLD

2.2%

SA

3.8%

WA

3.3%

TAS

3.6%

NT

3.4%

ACT

4.7%

AUS (average)

3.3%

SECTION 7
117

Further research into this aspect of the housing stock is


considered warranted especially if policy is directed towards
increased rates of ceiling insulation retrofit. The stock model
developed by EES has facility to model varying rates of ceiling
insulation retrofit by dwelling type at a state level.

7.5 Adjustments to estimates


of housing numbers
7.5.1

Introduction

The basic housing stock model described in the preceding


sections deals with the major inputs, retirements and
conversions of the stock from 1986 to the present plus
projections to 2020. However, certain adjustments to the
estimates were deemed necessary such that the final stock
estimates would more closely match reality.
Primarily these adjustments included:
An adjustment for the fact that only a certain percentage
of the stock is occupied at any one time ie a vacancy
rateadjustment.
Adjustments to account for disparities between ABS new
housing approval numbers and apparent realisation rates.
Details of these two adjustments are provided in the following
two sub-sections.

7.5.2

Adjustments to vacancy rates

At any time, only a certain proportion of the housing stock will


be occupied on a regular basis. A proportion of rental stock
(rental stock represented approximately 25% of all stock
in 2007) is always vacant and this level will vary from yearto-year based on economic factors relating to supply and
demand of rental stock. Many non rental dwellings are also
left vacant for much if not all of the time. In particular, holiday
houses are often left vacant. When holiday houses are
occupied, the primary residence of the householder will often
be vacant meaning that effectively one of the two dwellings
owned by the householder will be vacant at any one time.
For this study it was important to distinguish between total
stock and total occupied stock. Typically unoccupied stock
was found to represent approximately 10% of the total stock.
It is generally assumed that unoccupied stock will have little
or no energy consumption associated with it. For unoccupied
stock it is very unlikely that space conditioning will be left on
when unoccupied, except by accident. Appliances generally
will not be used although in the case of holiday homes,
refrigerators and electronic items with programs or clock
functions (eg DVD recorders, microwaves etc) may be left on.
Hot water systems may be left on in holiday homes during
the holiday season but a large proportion of holiday home
owners would be expected to turn them off upon leaving.
Further research into this area may be warranted.

Total vacancy rates applied to the model were derived from


the ABS Census of Household and Population ABS2015.0.
In this series of publications the number of unoccupied
dwellings is reported for each census year from 1991 to 2001
(Table 40). For the intervening years it was assumed that a
linear transition would apply. For the years outside the range
1991 to 2001 the long-term average over the period 1991
to 2001 was used. The long-term average was adopted for
years prior to and including 1986 and for years post and
including 2006. Between 1986 and 1991 and 2001 and 2006
a linear transition from survey data to the long term average
was assumed.

7.5.3

Adjustments to realisation rates

The numbers of new dwellings entering the stock post 1986


(base year) were estimated from ABS Building Approvals
Data. This data is a survey of the number of building
applications approved in any one year. Advice was received
from the ABS that approximately 5% (possibly more) of
residential buildings approved for construction are thought
not to be ever built, however there are no statistics available
to support this view. EES contacted a building surveying
firm in Victoria (Archicert) who advised that their experience
as that the realisation rate for residential projects they had
approved was typically between 90% and 95%.
By applying the total number of residential building approvals
as reported to the ABS to the model (1987 to 2005), it
was found that in most states the model would provide
household number estimates (ie occupied dwellings) that
were in excess of those found in the census data. This
observation is consistent with the suggestion above that
the actual realisation rate is somewhat less than 100%.
Interestingly in three jurisdictions the reverse was true, that
is, the modelled estimates of occupied household numbers
were marginally less than those found in the census data.
The three jurisdictions were Tasmania, ACT and Queensland.
For these jurisdictions it is postulated that there may have
been significant under-reporting of building approvals to
the ABS and or there may have been a significant decline
in the number of unoccupied households compared to the
assumptions made in this study (see Section 7.5.2).
To account for these differences adjustments were made to
the number of new dwellings entering the stock by applying
an apparent rate for the realisation of residential building
approvals (see Table41). For Tasmania, ACT and Queensland
this rate is greater than 100%, indicating that more than
100% of the dwellings reported as approved were actually
built due either to under reporting and or due to a significant
shift downwards in the number of unoccupied households21.

21 For instance a decline in the number of unoccupied dwellings in Queensland


from the 8.58% reported in 2001 (ABS) down to 7% would effectively reduce
the apparent realisation rate of new dwellings down below 100%.

HOUSING STOCK MODELLING METHODOLOGY


118

Table 40: Percentage of Unoccupied Dwellings by Jurisdiction (ABS)


Jurisdiction

1991

1996

2001

Long Term Average

NSW

8.8%

8.9%

8.8%

8.9%

VIC

10.1%

10.0%

9.6%

9.9%

QLD

8.9%

9.2%

8.6%

8.9%

SA

9.4%

9.9%

9.6%

9.7%

WA

9.5%

9.9%

9.9%

9.8%

TAS

11.8%

12.9%

12.9%

12.6%

NT

5.7%

5.7%

9.6%

6.8%

ACT

5.7%

6.7%

4.9%

6.0%

AUS (average)

9.3%

9.5%

9.2%

9.4%

Table 41: Apparent Realisation Rate of Residential Building Approvals from 1987 to 2005
Jurisdiction

Apparent Realisation Rate

NSW

92.6%

VIC

91.2%

QLD

104.6%

SA

93.0%

WA

89.7%

TAS

102.4%

NT

102.6%

ACT

99.1%

7.6 Floor area estimates


7.6.1

Overview

Data regarding average floor area of the current stock of


housing is very limited. NIEIR (National Institute for Economic
and Industrial Research) provides estimates from 1971 to
1996 at a national level only. NIEIR data includes estimates
only for separate and other than separate housing types.
Floor area data relating to new stock entering the population
between 1992 and 2004 was available from ABS new
housing approvals data. This data was available for each
class of housing; detached, semi detached and flats. Limited
reporting volumes for less populous states meant that for
some classes of housing the figures were less reliable.

7.6.2

Base point data

As noted in Section 7.3, the base point adopted for the


estimate of housing numbers was the 1986 financial year. In
this year, NIEIR reported that the average floor area of the
national stock of separate (detached) dwellings was 119.3 m2
and for non-separate dwellings, 54.2 m2.

The ratios of floor areas for detached housing, semidetached housing and flats in the first year of available
housing approval data (1992) was applied to these basic
1986 stock area figures to provide implied stock floor areas
for each class of dwelling in that year. The implied values
were as follows:
Detached dwellings = 119.3 m2
Semi-detached dwellings = 55.7 m2
Flats (all types) = 52.5 m2
The closeness of the semi detached and flat floor areas was
apparent in the 1992 housing approvals data where it was
reported that the national average floor area for new semidetached dwellings built in that year was 103.9 m2 compared
with 97.9 m2 for flats. In reality it is thought that prior to 1992
the disparity between the floor areas for these two classes
of dwellings would have been greater (ie flats would have
been considerably lesser in floor area than semi-detached
dwellings). However, in the absence of any hard data, the

SECTION 7
119

areas noted above were adopted as those applicable to the


entire stock of dwellings in all states in 198622.

negative into the preceding years) was factored in at a rate


commensurate with that observed nationally for this class of
housing (approximately 2.84 m2 increase per annum).

7.6.3

Average floor areas for new semi-detached housing built


between 1992 and 2005 derived from the available ABS
housing approval data is presented in Table 43.

Area of stock formed post-1986

For incoming stock into the model, ABS floor area data
derived from housing approval data was used. This data was
available from 1992 to 2005. This data was available for each
state and territory and for each of the three main housing
types: detached, semi-detached and flats. ABS floor area
data includes both the area of external walls and the area
covered by enclosed garages where present. Details relating
to this data are presented in the following three sub-sections.
For the years between the base year of 1986 and 1992
regression analysis was used to estimate floor areas in these
intervening years. A sample of this analysis for detached
dwellings is provided in Figure 74.

7.6.3.1 Detached dwellings analysis of ABS


housing approvals data
Floor area data for detached dwellings was generally good
with 79% average reporting rate for floor area and a minimum
state level rate of 43%. Sample size was generally above
500 dwellings per state per annum which was considered
a reasonable threshold for reliability of data. The NT sample
dropped below 500 dwellings between 2001 and 2005
(min 241) and in these circumstances a trend-line from the
preceding years was used instead of the reported area for
those years. All detached housing had its floor area discounted
by 20 m2 to account for the floor area of garages which are
reported as part of the total floor area in the ABSstatistics.
Average floor areas for new detached dwellings (excluding
floor areas associated with garages) built between 1992 and
2005 derived from the available ABS housing approval data is
presented in Table 42.

7.6.3.2 Semi-detached dwellings analysis of


ABS housing approvals data
Floor area data for semi-detached dwellings was fair, with
a 61% average reporting rate and a minimum rate of 19%.
Sample size was generally above 500 dwellings per state
per annum for the larger states of NSW, VIC, QLD and WA
but was significantly below this value for the remaining states
and territories (more than one-third of all reported years had
samples of <500). Because of the small sample size in SA,
TAS, NT and ACT an alternative approach was taken in
each of these smaller states and territories the total sample
of 14 years data was averaged to determine the average
floor area at the mid point of the time series. From this midpoint, growth in floor area (positive into the following and

22 Noting that since that date new stock formed post 1986, which is
separately tracked in the model, accounts for 50% of the floor area of all
housing built by 2007.

7.6.3.3 Flats analysis of ABS housing


approvals data
Floor area data for flats was fair to poor with a 40% average
reporting rate and a minimum rate of 0%. Sample size was
generally above 500 dwellings per state per annum for the
three largest states of NSW, VIC and QLD but was significantly
below this value for the remaining states and territories (more
than one-third of all reported years had samples of <500). The
small sample size in WA, SA, TAS, NT and ACT necessitated
an alternative approach. In each of these smaller states and
territories the total sample of 14 years data was averaged
to determine the average floor area at the mid-point of the
time series. From this mid-point, growth in floor area (positive
into the following and negative into the preceding years)
was factored in at a rate commensurate with that observed
nationally for this class of housing (approximately 2.1 m2
increase per annum). While the data for Victoria was generally
acceptable the first three years of data from 1992 to 1994 had
very low activity and reporting rates (<500, to as low as only 21
flats reported in 1993). For these three years a linear regression
from the following 11 years of data for Victoria was used
instead of the actual data for thoseyears.
Average floor areas for new flats built between 1992 and
2005 derived from the available ABS housing approval data
is presented in Table 44. Floor area data for all three dwelling
types is also presented in Figure 75.

7.6.4

Floor area lost through demolition

With respect to the floor area lost through demolitions, no


data was available on the floor area removed each year. As
noted in Section 7.4.4, for the purposes of this study it was
assumed that demolitions occur evenly throughout the stock.
On this basis floor area removed each year effectively equalled
the number of dwellings removed multiplied by the weighted
average floor area23 for the particular state or territory in the
preceding year.

7.6.5

Augmentation of existing stock floor


area

Each year a certain proportion of home owners undertake


renovations to existing dwellings that include the addition of
floor space. Whilst the floor areas of individual dwellings are
23 Note that for internal consistency of the model the average floor area
from the previous year was first scaled upwards in accordance with the
assumptions in relation to annual stock floor area augmentation see
Section 7.6.5.

HOUSING STOCK MODELLING METHODOLOGY


120

AVERAGE FLOOR AREA (M2)

Figure 74: Regression Analysis New Detached Housing Floor Areas 1986 to 2005

0.036x

270

NSW

0.0306x

260

VIC

0.028x

250

0.0111x

240

0.0159x

230

TAS

0.0139x

220

NT

0.0407x

210

0.0386x

200

0.0262x

190

Expon. (VIC)

180

Expon. (QLD)

NSW

y = 125.03e
2
R = 0.9895

VIC

y = 125.68e
2
R = 0.9833

QLD

y = 136.41e
2
R = 0.9939

SA

y = 151.65e
2
R = 0.7898

WA

y = 165.63e
2
R = 0.992

TAS

y = 136.64e
2
R = 0.8816

NT

y = 109.03e
2
R = 0.9636

ACT
AUS

y = 108.92e
2
R = 0.9725

y = 137.47e
2
R = 0.9911

Backcast

QLD
SA
WA

ACT
AUS
Expon. (NSW)

Expon. (SA)

170

Expon. (WA)

160

Expon. (TAS)

150

Expon. (ACT)
Expon. (NT)

140

Expon. (AUS)

130
120
110

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

100

YEAR

Table 42: Average Floor Area of New Housing Detached from 1992 to 2005
Year

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

1992

164

155

167

160

186

148

149

149

165

1993

167

158

169

161

186

150

156

151

167

1994

167

162

174

161

190

153

159

161

171

1995

173

164

179

167

195

154

169

149

176

1996

182

178

184

174

200

162

170

154

183

1997

194

193

191

175

199

161

178

167

191

1998

207

193

199

184

206

170

171

183

198

1999

216

198

205

190

207

175

166

181

203

2000

224

205

216

192

208

178

193

207

210

2001

222

204

214

183

212

176

225

216

209

2002

225

206

214

179

213

159

230

209

209

2003

239

213

225

186

222

171

235

211

219

2004

245

225

233

181

226

178

240

225

226

2005

253

229

236

178

228

179

245

238

230

SECTION 7
121

Table 43: Average Floor Area of New Housing Semi-Detached from 1992 to 2005
Year

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

1992

120

116

110

107

124

88

116

108

117

1993

117

115

113

110

124

90

119

111

117

1994

127

128

117

112

130

92

122

114

123

1995

130

125

123

115

136

94

125

116

128

1996

125

122

122

118

135

96

128

119

126

1997

133

145

124

120

131

98

131

122

131

1998

138

143

124

123

134

101

134

125

134

1999

139

147

121

126

139

103

137

127

136

2000

145

144

126

128

139

105

140

130

139

2001

147

152

132

131

151

107

142

133

144

2002

149

147

145

134

147

109

145

135

146

2003

163

151

149

136

157

112

148

138

153

2004

166

151

133

139

145

114

151

141

146

2005

160

160

135

142

146

116

154

143

149

Table 44: Average Floor Area (m2) of New Housing Flats from 1992 to 2005
Year

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUS

1992

110

106

109

131

124

98

120

92

110

1993

107

108

113

133

127

100

122

93

111

1994

110

110

116

136

129

102

125

95

113

1995

115

114

115

139

131

104

127

97

115

1996

108

99

111

141

134

106

129

99

110

1997

103

138

120

144

136

107

132

101

118

1998

113

131

108

146

139

109

134

102

116

1999

117

126

125

149

141

111

136

104

126

2000

96

108

132

151

144

113

139

106

119

2001

125

119

134

154

146

115

141

108

128

2002

119

103

141

156

148

117

143

109

126

2003

128

124

139

159

151

119

146

111

134

2004

123

124

148

161

153

121

148

113

135

2005

134

131

136

164

156

123

150

115

133

HOUSING STOCK MODELLING METHODOLOGY


122

Figure 75: Average Floor area (m2) of New Housing by Type Australia 1986 to 2020

AVERAGE FLOOR AREA (M2)

250

Detached
Semi Detached

200

Flats

150

100
Back Cast

Actual

Forecast

50

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

YEAR

increased through this process, the total number of dwellings


remains unaltered by the process. The effect of this selective
augmentation process is to marginally increase the average
floor area of the entire stock of dwellings over time.
Data on renovations, from BIS Shrapnel (Study to Investigate
the Alterations and Additions Sector of the Housing
Industry, BIS Shrapnel August 1994) was available for 1986,
1989, 1991 and 1992 for all jurisdictions except Tasmania, NT
and ACT (Table 45 and Table 46).
By multiplying the number of renovation jobs in each year
by the average floor area of those dwelling additions, a total
floor area added through renovation by state and year was
determined. Given the lack of data for three states and the
reasonably consistent quantum of floor area added in each
jurisdiction, it was decided that a national factor to cover floor
area augmentation would suffice. The total area added through
renovation in each of the four years studied was divided by
the total stock number in each year less the number of flats (it
was assumed that floor area augmentation to flats would be
fairly rare24) to give an average floor area addition per dwelling
(excluding flats). This ranged from 0.75 m2 to 1.1 m2 of average
floor area addition per dwelling per annum (excluding flats). In
terms of a percentage increase to the average floor area this
equated to between a 0.72% to 1.01% average percentage
floor area addition per dwelling per annum (excluding flats).
The average was 0.83% and it was this figure that was applied

to the stock of dwellings (except flats) for each year studied as


the average percentage floor area addition per non flat.

7.6.6

Forecast trends in floor areas

Beyond 2005, projections had to be made in respect of


likely trends in floor areas of new dwellings. Simon Tennant
of the HIA (National Office) was contacted for his informed
view on the topic. He observed that a trend towards reduced
floor areas in detached dwellings was apparent in the latest
statistics he was privy to (end 2006). He further advised
that industry sources expected this trend to continue over
the next three years. His expectation was that the average
floor area for a new detached dwelling will decline from
approximately 250 m2 (2005 national average including
attached garages) down to 230 m2 (ie down to 92%) by 2009
and that the area will stabilise at this level in the foreseeable
future beyond 2009. The key drivers for this trend are thought
to be:
Housing affordability issues especially for first home buyers
(a reduction of 20 m2 can reduce construction cost by
approximately $20,000).
Block size has been declining over many years (cost of
land is high).
Saturation of the block coverage (Governments will not
allow entire blocks be covered).
The cost to go beyond two levels is substantial (structural
and service costs start to become significant beyond
twostoreys).

24 Constraints imposed by neighbouring apartments as well as site


boundaries required setbacks and body corporate constraints mean that in
practical terms, few extensions are ever undertaken to flats.

SECTION 7
123

Table 45: Number of Renovations Involving Additions of Floor Area by State (000s) (BIS Shrapnel)
Jurisdiction

1986

1989

1991

1992

NSW

50.5

50.3

44.7

51.8

VIC

30.5

37.5

33.1

26

QLD

11

20.7

25.5

20

SA

8.5

11.4

10.3

10.8

WA

14.6

12

11.3

TAS

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

NT

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

ACT

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Table 46: Average Floor Area of Dwelling Additions by State (m2) (BIS Shrapnel)
Jurisdiction

1986

1989

1991

1992

NSW

36.1

34.3

42.6

46.1

VIC

42.4

30.8

36.2

51.4

QLD

38.3

36.5

46.8

46.7

SA

40.9

36.1

42.9

64.4

WA

44.1

49.5

37.8

46.8

TAS

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

NT

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

ACT

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

AUS (average)

39.5

35.4

41.5

48.8

For medium-density dwellings (semi-detached and low-rise


apartments) Simon Tennant expected these to continue their
slow floor area growth trend as they become an alternative to
detached dwellings. For high-rise apartments, Simon Tennant
expected these to remain static in terms of floor area.

High-rise flats Areas to remain stable at 2005 levels to the


end of the study period.

Based on this advice the following, informed assumptions


were made in respect of trends in average floor areas of
newdwellings:

7.7.1

Detached dwellings Areas to decline to 92% of 2005


levels by 2009 then stabilise for the remainder of the
studyperiod.
Semi-detached Areas to maintain their current modest
upward trend until 2009 (based on a linear regression from
2005 back to 1986) then stabilise for the remainder of the
study period.
Low-rise flats Areas to maintain their current modest
upward trend until 2009 (based on a linear regression from
2005 back to 1986) then stabilize for the remainder of the
study period.

7.7 Division into climate zones


Introduction and data sources

While modelling in this study is generally carried out at a


state level, in terms of predicting performance characteristics
of building shells it is not state boundaries that are relevant
but climatic zones. The modelling tool used in this study
was AccuRate and this distinguishes 69 different climatic
zones throughout Australia (Table 47). It was agreed by the
steering committee for this study that modelling of all 69
zones would be overly time consuming and unnecessary.
Instead, it was agreed that the 69 zones could be divided
into several grouped zones, each group sharing similar
climatic characteristics (in terms of modelling outcomes).
Each of these grouped zones could then be represented by
just one strategically selected AccuRate climate zone within
that grouping. This representative zone would then be used
for modelling runs.

HOUSING STOCK MODELLING METHODOLOGY


124

In formulating the set of grouped zones for modelling it is


important that the range of those grouped climate zones
is representative of the range of climate zones throughout
Australia and in particular representative of:
Major centres of population.
The full range of climate types from heating dominated to
cooling dominated, tropical, subtropical, temperate and
sub temperate.
Each of the eight states and territories that are to be
modelled separately in this study.
To evaluate which climate zones should be grouped together
and which individual zone within each group should be
used as representative of that group as a whole, a two-step
process was undertaken as follows:
Step 1 (see Section 7.7.2): An analysis of the penetration
of current households by each of the 69 AccuRate climate
zones was undertaken so as to establish which zones
were most representative in terms of household numbers.
Selection of a single zone to represent a group of zones was
informed by this analysis.
Step 2 (see Section 7.7.3): 625 sample dwellings used
previously in the study to establish the eight climate zones
now used in the BCA were modelled in each of the 69
climate zones so as to determine the relative magnitude
of heating and cooling demand within each climate zone.
Selection of zones to be grouped together was informed by
this analysis.

Data Sources
Data source 1: AccuRate concordance file for postcodes and
climate zones.
Data source 2: Australia Post statistics file of private and
business postal addresses. In 2006 Australia Post identified
7,475,805 private postal addresses by postcode including
street delivery addresses, roadside delivery addresses,
private boxes and private counter deliveries. ABS estimates
of total households in Australia indicate that there were
approximately eight million households in 2006. This means
that the Australia Post data captures more than 90% of
allhouseholds.

7.7.2

Penetration of households by climate


zone

AccuRate concordance files for climate zone and postcode


were cross-matched against the Australia Post 2006
statistics file of private and business postal addresses. 99.2%
of all postcodes identified by Australia Post were captured
by the AccuRate concordance files. The remaining 0.8% of
postcodes not identified by AccuRate represent 178 very
minor Australia Post postcodes. These sites were typically
small post shops that are spread across Australia. A few
were simply not identified by AccuRate, probably because
the AccuRate postcode concordance file was produced in
200125, whereas the Australia Post data is from 2006.
For some postcodes, AccuRate notes that up to three
climate zones can be applicable. That is, the geographic
boundaries of the post code span several AccuRate climate
zones. Eighty eight percent of dwellings had postcodes that
lay within a single climate zone, 11% had postcodes that
spanned two climate zones and 1% had postcodes that
spanned three climatezones.
In cases where a postcode spanned more than one climate
zone, the number of postal address attributed by Australia
Post to that postcode was split evenly between the climate
zones nominated in AccuRate for that postcode. Whilst this
assumption may result in the over or under-representation of
households in a particular climate zone within those postcodes
that span multiple climate zones, the error in terms of heating
and cooling load estimates is likely to be small.
This is because generally, multiple climate zones within a
single postcode are unlikely to differ significantly from one
another due to their geographic proximity26. Furthermore,
the climate grouping process noted above is likely to place
each of the climates identified within a particular postcode
into the one group in any case. The results of this analysis are
presented in Table 47 (national breakdown) and in Table 48
(state breakdown).

7.7.3

Selecting groupings for climate zones

As noted in Section 7.7.1, 625 sample dwellings were


modelled in each of the 69 climate zones as the basis for
determining appropriate climate zone groupings. The results
of that modelling are presented in Figure 76 (heating) and
Figure 77 (cooling). In each of these charts the climate zones
are ordered from top to bottom in descending order of
modelled space conditioning load.

25 Advice received from Angelo Delsante of the CSIRO.


26 The exception to this rule may occur where a postcode encompasses
both lowlands and alpine areas.

SECTION 7
125

Table 47: Number and Penetration of Households by AccuRate Climate Zone 2006
AccuRate Climate

Geographical Location

No. Households

National Penetration

Darwin Airport

48016

0.6%

Port Hedland Airport

12912

0.2%

Longreach Aero

15730

0.2%

Carnarvon Airport

1376

0.0%

Townsville Aero

75588

1.0%

Alice Springs

10477

0.1%

Rockhampton Aero

44956

0.6%

Moree MO

24890

0.3%

Amberley Aero

226168

3.1%

10

Brisbane AMO

798533

10.8%

11

Coffs Harbour MO

75508

1.0%

12

Geraldton Airport

13653

0.2%

13

Perth Airport

423911

5.7%

14

Armidale

39548

0.5%

15

Williamtown AMO

323525

4.4%

16

Adelaide (Kent Town)

473356

6.4%

17

Sydney RO

237373

3.2%

18

Nowra RAN

106021

1.4%

19

Charleville AMO

29515

0.4%

20

Wagga AMO

77983

1.1%

21

Melbourne RO

161549

2.2%

22

East Sale AMO

75814

1.0%

23

Launceston (Ti Tree Bend)

31518

0.4%

24

Canberra Airport

202850

2.7%

25

Cabramurra

33551

0.5%

26

Hobart RO

80941

1.1%

27

Mildura AMO

111731

1.5%

28

Richmond

494369

6.7%

29

Weipa Aero

4656

0.1%

30

Wyndham PO

1891

0.0%

31

Willis Island

3225

0.0%

32

Cairns AMO

78516

1.1%

33

Broome Airport

1863

0.0%

34

Learmouth Airport

665

0.0%

35

Mackay MO

43097

0.6%

HOUSING STOCK MODELLING METHODOLOGY


126

AccuRate Climate

Geographical Location

No. Households

National Penetration

36

Gladstone Radar

82648

1.1%

37

Halls Creek Airport

6971

0.1%

38

Tennant Creek

5444

0.1%

39

Mount Isa AMO

10065

0.1%

40

Newman

4305

0.1%

41

Giles MO

701

0.0%

42

Meekatharra Airport

3162

0.0%

43

Oodnadatta Airport

1704

0.0%

44

Kalgoorlie

34330

0.5%

45

Woomera Aerodrome

8402

0.1%

46

Cobar AMO

17989

0.2%

47

Bickley

32505

0.4%

48

Dubbo Airport

42594

0.6%

49

Katanning

10694

0.1%

50

Oakey Aero

79573

1.1%

51

Forrest AMO

14

0.0%

52

Swanbourne

110909

1.5%

53

Ceduna

10266

0.1%

54

Mandurah

45575

0.6%

55

Esperance

3035

0.0%

56

Mascot AMO

862814

11.6%

57

Manjimup

6397

0.1%

58

Albany Airport

24192

0.3%

59

Mount Lofty

35797

0.5%

60

Tullamarine

429539

5.8%

61

Mount Gambier AMO

32391

0.4%

62

Moorabbin Airport

715575

9.7%

63

Warrnambool

37947

0.5%

64

Cape Otway

43040

0.6%

65

Orange AP

67073

0.9%

66

Ballarat Aerodrome

186669

2.5%

67

Low Head

32523

0.4%

68

Launceston AP

22142

0.3%

69

Thredbo Valley

22010

0.3%

7414262

100%

Total

SECTION 7
127

Figure 76: Relative Heating Load by Climate type (Based Upon 625 Sample Dwellings used for the Development of
the BCA Thermal Performance Measures)

25 Cabramurra
69 Thredbo Village
59 Mt Lofty
65 Orange
68 Launceston (Airport)
66 Ballarat
23 Launceston (Ti Tree Bend)
26 Hobart
24 Canberra
63 Warrnambool
61 Mt Gambier
60 Tullamarine (Airport)
22 East Sale
14 Armidale
64 Cape Otway
62 Moorabbin (Airport)
67 Low Head
20 Wagga
21 Melbourne RO
57 Manjimup
58 Albany
48 Dubbo
49 Katanning
27 Mildura
47 Bickley
18 Nowra
16 Adelaide
55 Esperance
53 Ceduna
28 Richmond
46 Cobar
51 Forrest
15 Williamtown
8 Moree
44 Kalgoorlie
50 Oakey
45 Woomera
13 Perth
56 Mascot (Airport)
54 Mandurah
6 Alice Springs
19 Charleville
52 Swanbourne
11 Coffs Harbour
17 Sydney RO
12 Geraldton
9 Amberley
43 Oodnadatta
41 Giles
10 Brisbane
42 Meekathara
40 Newman
3 Longreach
4 Carnarvon
39 Mt Isa
7 Rockhampton
36 Gladstone
34 Learmonth
38 Tennant Creek
35 MacKay
2 Port Hedland
5 Townsville
37 Halls Creek
33 Broome
32 Cairns
31 Willis Island
30 Wyndham
29 Weipa
1 Darwin
0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

HEATING (MJ/M2)

Note: Zones with coloured bars are the zones selected to be representative of each group see Section 7.7.4

HOUSING STOCK MODELLING METHODOLOGY


128

Figure 77: Relative Cooling Load by Climate Type (Based Upon 625 Sample Dwellings used for the Development of
the BCA Thermal Performance Measures)

30 Wyndham
1 Darwin
29 Weipa
33 Broome
37 Halls Creek
2 Port Hedland
38 Tennant Creek
39 Mt Isa
3 Longreach
31 Willis Island
40 Newman
34 Learmonth
6 Alice Springs
5 Townsville
43 Oodnadatta
32 Cairns
41 Giles
7 Rockhampton
35 MacKay
19 Charleville
42 Meekathara
8 Moree
45 Woomera
9 Amberley
46 Cobar
36 Gladstone
27 Mildura
13 Perth
16 Adelaide
50 Oakey
44 Kalgoorlie
12 Geraldton
4 Carnarvon
28 Richmond
49 Katanning
51 Forrest
54 Mandurah
20 Wagga
47 Bickley
53 Ceduna
10 Brisbane
48 Dubbo
15 Williamtown
17 Sydney RO
11 Coffs Harbour
57 Manjimup
18 Nowra
21 Melbourne RO
24 Canberra
56 Mascot (Airport)
52 Swanbourne
14 Armidale
60 Tullamarine (Airport)
22 East Sale
66 Ballarat
55 Esperance
62 Moorabbin (Airport)
63 Warrnambool
61 Mt Gambier
64 Cape Otway
59 Mt Lofty
58 Albany
69 Thredbo Village
65 Orange
23 Launceston (Ti Tree Bend)
25 Cabramurra
26 Hobart
67 Low Head
68 Launceston (Airport)
0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

COOLING (MJ/M2)

Note: Zones with coloured bars are the zones selected to be representative of each group see Section 7.7.4

SECTION 7
129

Table 48: Penetration of Households by AccuRate Climate Zone By State 2006


AccuRate
Climate Zone

Penetration of Households By Climate Zone By State


NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

1
1.8%

1.1%

0.2%

5.3%

0.0%

3.2%

0.8%

0.2%

0.6%

14.9%

10

2.7%

51.5%

11

2.9%

16.0%

0.1%

12

1.9%

13

57.7%

14

1.5%

15

12.5%

0.1%

16

80.7%

17

9.2%

18

4.1%

19

0.0%

20

2.8%

2.1%
0.3%

21

9.3%

22

4.4%

23

17.0%

24

3.2%

0.3%

25

0.6%

0.5%

99.7%
5.0%

26

43.6%

27

1.5%

28

19.1%

2.7%

4.7%

0.3%

30

0.3%

31

0.2%

32

5.5%

0.1%

33

0.3%

34

0.1%

HOUSING STOCK MODELLING METHODOLOGY


130

ACT

75.2%

29

NT

0.1%

AccuRate
Climate Zone

Penetration of Households By Climate Zone By State


NSW

VIC

QLD

35

3.0%

36

5.8%

SA

37

WA

0.3%

38

0.3%

39

0.7%
0.6%

41

0.1%

42

0.4%

43

0.4%
4.7%

45

1.4%
0.7%

47

4.4%
1.6%

49
50

1.5%
0.0%

5.6%

51

0.0%

52

15.1%

53

1.8%

54

6.2%

55

0.4%

56

33.3%

57

0.9%

58

3.3%

59

6.1%

60

25.0%

61

0.2%

62

41.6%

63

2.2%

64

2.5%

65

ACT

7.0%

0.2%

44

48

NT

1.4%

40

46

TAS

4.9%

2.6%

66

10.9%

67

17.5%

68

11.9%

69

0.4%

0.2%

Total

100%

100%

5.0%
100%

100%

100%

100%

0.1%
100%

100%

SECTION 7
131

A total of 10 groupings were made, each group containing


climate zones that provide comparable heating or cooling
load results. It should be noted that the groupings adopted
for heating loads are not identical to those adopted for
cooling loads (although they often have similarities).

penetrations were static over the study period. Trends could


be established through time series analysis of Australia Post
statistics files of private and business postal addresses by
postcode (assuming historical files are available), however this
form of analysis was beyond the scope of this study.

This is because two climate zones that produce comparable


heating loads in the sample dwellings (eg Darwin (0.0 MJ/m2
and Townsville 4.0 MJ/m2) can produce markedly different
cooling loads (Darwin 577 MJ/m2, Townsville 225 MJ/m2).

7.7.4

Selection of representative climate


zones

Following the grouping process noted above, a single zone


within each group was selected to be representative of that
grouped zone (see red coloured bars in Figure 76 (heating)
and Figure 77 (cooling). Rather than simply selecting the
zone closest to the arithmetic mean of the group, preference
was given to the zone with the highest % of households as
determined in Section 7.7.2. The resulting selection tended
to favour major population centres such as capital cities and
thereby provided a selection weighted in favour of number of
households represented. After selecting the representative
climate zones, an iterative process of minor adjustments was
then made at the margins of each grouping so as to locate
the selected zone closer to the mean space conditioning load
for that group (where possible).
The grouped zones were numbered H1-H10 (heating groups
see Table 49) and C1C10 (cooling groups see Table
50). In total, the 10 climate zones alone, selected as being
representative of Australia, contained 51.6% of all households
in 2006.
A table providing a concordance between the Grouped
Zones and the 69 AccuRate Climate zones can be found in
Table 51. Locations bolded are the climate zones selected to
be representative of the particular grouped zone.

7.7.5

State profiles based on selected


grouped zones

Based on the groupings adopted in the previous sections,


each state was divided up according to the penetration of
each of the grouped zones. Different penetrations were applied
for heating analysis compared to those applied for cooling
analysis. The penetrations are detailed in Table 52 and Figure
78 for heating and Table 53 and Figure 79 forcooling. Over
time with changes in demographics there are likely to be some
shifts in the penetrations of households in each climate zone.
For the purposes of this study it was assumed that these

HOUSING STOCK MODELLING METHODOLOGY


132

Table 49: Grouped Zones Details Heating


Grouped Zone Name

Designated AccuRate Climate


Zone (to represent group)

Sample dwelling
Heating Load (MJ/m2)

% of Households

H1 (C10)

1 Darwin

0.6%

H2 (C9)

5 Townsville

1.0%

H3 (C7)

10 Brisbane

54

10.8%

H4 (C4)

56 Mascot (Airport)

115

11.6%

H5 (C8)

16 Adelaide

178

6.4%

H6 (C6)

21 Melbourne RO

283

2.2%

H7 (C2)

62 Moorabbin (Airport)

334

9.7%

H8 (C3)

60 Tullamarine (Airport)

358

5.8%

H9 (C5)

24 Canberra

427

2.7%

H10 (C1)

65 Orange

568

0.9%

Sample dwelling
Cooling Load (MJ/m2)

% of Households

Table 50: Grouped Zones Details Cooling


Grouped Zone Name

Designated AccuRate Climate


Zone (to represent group)

C1 (H10)

65 Orange

18

0.9%

C2 (H7)

62 Moorabbin (Airport)

29

9.7%

C3 (H8)

60 Tullamarine (Airport)

36

5.8%

C4 (H4)

56 Mascot (Airport)

44

11.6%

C5 (H9)

24 Canberra

45

2.7%

C6 (H6)

21 Melbourne RO

46

2.2%

C7 (H3)

10 Brisbane

67

10.8%

C8 (H5)

16 Adelaide

102

6.4%

C9 (H2)

5 Townsville

225

1.0%

C10 (H1)

1 Darwin

577

0.6%

SECTION 7
133

Table 51: Concordance of Grouped Climate Zones and AccuRate Climate Zones
Grouped Zone
Name - Heating

AccuRate Climate Zones Included in


the Grouped Zone - Heating

Grouped Zone
Name - Cooling

AccuRate Climate Zones Included in


the Grouped Zone - Cooling

H1

1 Darwin

C1

68 Launceston (Airport)

H2

29 Weipa

67 Low Head

30 Wyndham

26 Hobart

31 Willis Island

25 Cabramurra

32 Cairns

23 Launceston (Ti Tree Bend)

33 Broome

65 Orange

37 Halls Creek

69 Thredbo Village

5 Townsville

58 Albany

2 Port Hedland

59 Mt Lofty

35 MacKay

64 Cape Otway

38 Tennant Creek

61 Mt Gambier

34 Learmonth

H3

H4

62 Moorabbin (Airport)

7 Rockhampton

55 Esperance

39 Mt Isa

C3

66 Ballarat

4 Carnarvon

22 East Sale

3 Longreach

60 Tullamarine (Airport)

40 Newman

14 Armidale

42 Meekathara

52 Swanbourne

10 Brisbane

C4

56 Mascot

41 Giles

C5

24 Canberra

43 Oodnadatta

C6

21 Melbourne RO

9 Amberley

18 Nowra

12 Geraldton

57 Manjimup

17 Sydney RO

11 Coffs Harbour

11 Coffs Harbour

17 Sydney RO
C7

15 Williamtown

19 Charleville

48 Dubbo

6 Alice Springs

10 Brisbane

54 Mandurah

53 Ceduna

56 Mascot

47 Bickley

13 Perth

20 Wagga

45 Woomera

54 Mandurah

50 Oakey

C8

51 Forrest

44 Kalgoorlie

49 Katanning

8 Moree

28 Richmond

15 Williamtown

4 Carnarvon

51 Forrest

12 Geraldton

46 Cobar

44 Kalgoorlie

28 Richmond

50 Oakey

53 Ceduna

16 Adelaide

55 Esperance

13 Perth

HOUSING STOCK MODELLING METHODOLOGY


134

63 Warrnambool

36 Gladstone

52 Swanbourne

H5

C2

Grouped Zone
Name - Heating

AccuRate Climate Zones Included in


the Grouped Zone - Heating

Grouped Zone
Name - Cooling

AccuRate Climate Zones Included in


the Grouped Zone - Cooling

H5

16 Adelaide

C8

27 Mildura

H6

18 Nowra

36 Gladstone

47 Bickley

46 Cobar

27 Mildura

9 Amberley

49 Katanning

45 Woomera

48 Dubbo

8 Moree

58 Albany

42 Meekathara

57 Manjimup

H7

H8

H9

H10

C9

19 Charleville

21 Melbourne RO

35 MacKay

20 Wagga

7 Rockhampton

67 Low Head

41 Giles

62 Moorabbin (Airport)

32 Cairns

64 Cape Otway

43 Oodnadatta

14 Armidale

5 Townsville

22 East Sale

6 Alice Springs

60 Tullamarine (Airport)

34 Learmonth

61 Mt Gambier

40 Newman

63 Warrnambool

31 Willis Island

24 Canberra

3 Longreach

26 Hobart

39 Mt Isa

23 Launceston (Ti Tree Bend)

38 Tennant Creek

66 Ballarat

2 Port Hedland

68 Launceston (Airport)

C10

37 Halls Creek

65 Orange

33 Broome

59 Mt Lofty

29 Weipa

69 Thredbo Village

1 Darwin

25 Cabramurra

30 Wyndham

SECTION 7
135

Table 52: Penetration of Grouped Heating Zones by State (2006)


Grouped Heating Zone

Penetration of Households By Climate Grouped Zone By State


NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

H1

0.0%

0.0%

0.5%

0.0%

0.3%

0.0%

75.2%

0.0%

H2

0.0%

0.0%

23.3%

0.0%

2.4%

0.0%

8.5%

0.0%

H3

3.3%

0.0%

68.2%

0.2%

3.2%

0.0%

0.4%

0.0%

H4

46.2%

0.0%

7.9%

1.6%

83.6%

0.0%

16.0%

0.0%

H5

37.8%

2.7%

0.0%

87.2%

6.3%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

H6

4.5%

9.6%

0.0%

0.0%

4.2%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

H7

0.0%

44.1%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

17.5%

0.0%

0.0%

H8

1.5%

29.6%

0.1%

4.9%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

H9

3.2%

13.4%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

60.5%

0.0%

99.7%

H10

3.6%

0.7%

0.0%

6.1%

0.0%

22.0%

0.0%

0.3%

Figure 78: Penetration of Grouped Heating Zones By State (2006)

PENETRATION

1
0.9
0.8
0.7

H1 Darwin
H2 Townsville
H3 Brisbane
H4 Mascot
H5 Adelaide
H6 Melbourne RO

0.6

H7 Moorabbin

0.5

H8 Tullamarine
H9 Canberra

0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

HOUSING STOCK MODELLING METHODOLOGY


136

NT

ACT

H10 Orange

Table 53: Penetration of Grouped Cooling Zones by State (2006)


Grouped Heating Zone

Penetration of Households By Climate Grouped Zone By State


NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

C1

3.6%

3.4%

0.0%

11.0%

3.3%

100.0%

0.0%

0.3%

C2

0.0%

43.8%

0.0%

0.0%

0.4%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

C3

1.5%

40.2%

0.1%

0.0%

15.1%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

C4

33.3%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

C5

3.2%

0.3%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

99.7%

C6

16.2%

9.3%

0.0%

0.0%

0.9%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

C7

19.7%

0.3%

51.5%

1.8%

10.6%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

C8

22.6%

2.7%

26.6%

87.0%

66.3%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

C9

0.0%

0.0%

21.5%

0.2%

2.6%

0.0%

17.8%

0.0%

C10

0.0%

0.0%

0.3%

0.0%

0.8%

0.0%

82.2%

0.0%

Figure 79: Penetration of Grouped Cooling Zones by State (2006)

PENETRATION

1
0.9

C1 Orange
C2 Moorabbin
C3 Tullamarine

0.8
0.7
0.6

C4 Mascot
C5 Canberra
C6 Melbourne RO
C7 Brisbane

0.5
0.4
0.3

C8 Adelaide
C9 Townsville
C10 Darwin

0.2
0.1
0
NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

SECTION 7
137

138

Source: Sustainable Pty Ltd

SECTION 8

SPACE CONDITIONING LOAD MODELLING METHODOLOGY

8 Space conditioning
load modelling
methodology

Figure 80 provides a graphical outline of the space conditioning


load model and its key inputs. The model and its inputs are
described in detail in the following sub-sections.
Figure 80: Schematic of Space Conditioning Load Model

8.1 Overview
Estimates of likely heating and cooling loads within
dwellings are necessary inputs into the space conditioning
appliance module developed for this study. Such estimates
of heating and cooling load facilitate the estimate of likely
space conditioning energy demand required to meet that
load. However, just because modelling might suggests
that a heating or cooling load will exist in a dwelling, this
does not mean that the householder will choose to use
space conditioning equipment (assuming they own such
equipment) to deal with that load (ie maintain assumed
comfortconditions).
The space conditioning load model developed for this
study is based upon simulation modelling outputs from the
thermal performance modelling software developed by the
CSIRO known as AccuRate. Thermal performance modelling
was conducted upon a sample of dwellings selected to be
representative of the stock of housing found in Australia. This
sample also included performance based housing as has
become the norm in recent times.
For the purposes of this study the default assumptions within
the AccuRate software relating to occupancy of the dwelling
and the operation of thermostats within the dwelling were
varied to more closely match reality. Settings as adopted in
AccuRate while adequate for comparative rating purposes
were not considered adequate for the purposes of estimating
actual space heating and cooling loads expected to prevail
in an average household. These adjustments in relation to
user behaviour were undertaken on the basis of research
undertaken specially for this study.
By default, for each climate zone, AccuRate software
uses a set 12-month weather profile based on a typical
meteorological year (TMY) as the basis for making
comparative assessments of building shell thermal
performance. For this study actual weather data that had only
recently become available for the period 1986 to 2004 was
substituted for the TMY data. This substitution allowed the
impacts of actual weather conditions over this 19-year period
to be accounted for within the model.
Several assumptions in the form of AccuRate program settings
also had to be made for the purposes of undertaking thermal
simulation modelling. These included such things as; building
orientation, ceiling heights, glazing systems, overshadowing,
natural and mechanical ventilation, levels of building sealing
and so on.

Sample
Dwelling Types

Historical / Forecast
Weather Data

Construction
Formats

User
Behaviour Factors

AccuRate
Modelling
Software

Building
Orientation
Options

Unconstrained Estimate of Heating and Cooling Demand by


House Type/Const.
Climate
Occupancy
Orientation

8.2 Modelling tools


The AccuRate building assessment software was developed
by the CSIRO and is the successor to the first generation
Nationwide House Energy Rating (NatHERS) software on
which several key building thermal performance assessment
tools in Australia were based.
AccuRate is an enhanced version of the NatHERS software.
It is a rating tool that assigns a star rating to a residential
building (a detached or semi-detached house, unit,
townhouse, or apartment) based on its calculated annual
heating and cooling energy requirements (not energy
consumption, ie the efficiency of heating and cooling
equipment is not taken into account).

SPACE CONDITIONING LOAD MODELLING METHODOLOGY


140

Occupancy
Profile
Options

The heating and cooling energy requirements are calculated


hourly over a period of one year, using one year of typical
weather data appropriate for the location.
Occupant behaviour is taken into account because it
strongly affects the heating and cooling energy calculated.
However, because AccuRate is a rating tool, in its standard
format it does not allow the user to modify the assumptions
made regarding occupant behaviour. For this study two
main aspects of user behaviour were modified. These were
the assumed occupancy profile of the occupant and the
thermostat operation. The former was varied using a batching
facility called AccuBatch specially developed by Sustainability
Victoria and the later took the form of a modification to the
AccuRate engine itself undertaken by CSIRO at the request
of the authors.

In addition to these base samples, the following additional


sample dwellings were incorporated into the model for
modelling in South Australia28:
Detached single-fronted cottage typical of the late 18th and
early 19th century.
Detached symmetrical double-fronted cottage typical of the
late 18th and early 19th century.
Cottage as above with major contemporary extension to
the rear of the dwelling.
Contemporary shack 1950 to 1970 lightweight, low
pitched roof, metal windows.
Ranch/colonial style 1960 to 1985, double brick, pitched
tiled roof.

8.3.2

8.3 Sample housing


8.3.1

General housing

A range of dwelling designs were used to build a


representative profile for each of the four main dwelling types,
detached, semi-detached, low-rise flats and high-rise flats.
Actual designs were drawn from a survey undertaken by
Energy SA for a related study undertaken by EES. The survey
included a range of historical and contemporary dwelling
styles found in SA. Modelling undertaken in this study for
South Australia included the full range of these samples
whereas modelling for other states only utilised selected
samples that were considered to be the most generic27.
These generic designs tended to be relatively simple designs
selected to be representative of the output of volume builders
post-1950. While the plans used might be considered as
generic, each plan was modelled through a representative
range of construction types, insulation options and for each
of four orientations (north, south, east and west). In addition,
the modelled loads were adjusted to account for shifts in
average floor areas over time.

Performance-based housing

In addition to the use of sample dwelling forms a set of


performance-based loads were also utilized. Performancebased loads refer to the expected heating and cooling loads
associated with those dwellings that have been designed to
meet a particular thermal performance requirement such as
the ACTHERS requirement in the ACT or the requirements
embodied within recent revisions to the Building Code of
Australia. Over the past few years this type of performance
requirement has become the norm in most states29. For
dwellings built in accordance with performance requirements,
their expected heating and cooling loads were not defined
on the basis of thermal performance simulation modelling
of a representative dwelling, but rather by the stringency of
the particular performance requirement as adopted by the
jurisdiction in which they were built. Primarily, this affects new
or projected construction of dwellings. From 2005 onwards
all new dwellings fall into this category.
The specified performance levels in AccuRate could not
however be simply adopted for those dwellings affected by
a MEPS program. Modifications to the following parameters
had to be made first:
A split of the load between heating and cooling components.

In summary the samples generally used were as follows:

An adjustment for floor area.

Single-storey detached dwelling

An adjustment for the occupancy assumptions adopted


in this study (see Section 8.4 for the assumed occupancy
profile used in this study).

Two-storey detached dwelling


Semi-detached single storey (lower density)
Semi-detached two-storey apartment style
Low-rise flat

An adjustment for the thermostat operation assumptions


adopted in this study (see Section 8.5 for the assumed
thermostat operation assumptions used in this study).

High-rise flat corner unit


High-rise flat non-corner unit

27 The model has been designed such that should other states wish to
offer more comprehensive samples of their particular stock of dwellings
(particularly older styles) then these can be incorporated into the model.
The advantage of having a comprehensive set of historical dwelling types
applicable to a particular state is that it then allows for the accurate
modelling of policy options designed to address the thermal performance
shortcomings of that stock.

28 These additional samples were provided by the South Australian


Government such that a more comprehensive profile of that states building
stock could be modelled. This was undertaken with a view to facilitating
the assessment of proposed energy programs targeted at these form
ofhousing.
29 Noting that often this will take the form of deemed to satisfy provisions rather
than true performance standards as adopted in Victoria. For the purposes of
this study it has been assumed that where the deemed to satisfy compliance
route has been used that it will deliver an average performance equivalent to
the performance goal nominated for thatjurisdiction.

SECTION 8
141

8.3.2.1 Split for heating and cooling


Performance levels specified in AccuRate are a combined
heating and cooling performance measure, ie a total heating
and cooling load that must not exceed so many MJ per m2
per annum. For the purposes of this study which considers
space heating and space cooling end uses separately, these
values had to be split into heating and cooling components.
The basis for the apportionment of load was an analysis of
625 sample dwellings used in the BCA thermal performance
standard development process. This analysis provided an
expected split of heating and cooling load for each of the
69 climate zones. These percentages were then weighted
according to the prevalence of households in each of the 69
AccuRate climate zones (see Table 47) and then aggregated
into the 10 climate zones used in this study.

8.3.2.2 Adjustment for floor area


The AccuRate performance calculation includes a floor
area adjustment factor. This factor effectively adjusts the
space conditioning load performance requirement needed
to meet a particular star rating level according to the net
conditioned floor area of the dwelling30. The adjustment
factor is in the form of a 5th level polynomial. Generally the
effect of this factor is to, within certain limits, increase the
stringency level of the star rating with increasing floor area.
For the purposes of this study this meant that star band
threshold levels needed to be adjusted in accordance with
the expected average floor area for dwellings within the
particular jurisdiction under consideration. Because thermal
performance requirements for dwellings are a relatively new
phenomenon (except in the ACT) the most recent floor area
data available (2004-2005), was adopted for this process.

8.3.2.3 Adjustment for occupancy


The default settings for occupancy (ie hours of occupation)
used in AccuRate assume that the dwelling is to be occupied
24 hours a day (although not all zones within the dwelling
are assumed to be continuously occupied, eg living spaces
7am until midnight, bedroom spaces 4pm until 9am). These
default settings are reflected in the stringency levels for
the star bands, ie the target load for a particular star rating
assumes that this 24-hour occupancy profile will prevail.
In Section 8.4 of this study it was determined that on
average, householders would occupy their dwellings
somewhat less than the hours of occupancy assumed in
the default settings embodied in AccuRate. The impact of
this lower occupancy will be to reduce the expected space
conditioning load. This reduction is, however, less than one
might expect due to the fact that an unoccupied dwelling
will to some degree store heat gained or lost during hours

30 AccuRate also incorporates a second correction factor accounting for


the degree of shared external surface area. However, this factor is under
review and as a consequence was not factored into this analysis.

of non occupancy, and this heat surplus or deficit will then


be addressed once the dwelling is re-occupied. The exact
impact is subject to a complex set of variables best assessed
by comparing loads in sample houses under default
AccuRate conditions with loads in the same houses under
the occupancy conditions assumed for this study.
From this comparative analysis the derived ratio was applied
as a reduction factor to the various star band stringency levels
adopted or scheduled to be adopted in each jurisdiction.

8.3.2.4 Adjustment for thermostat operation


The default settings for thermostat operation (ie at what
temperature is it assumed that an occupant shall initiate
and at what temperature shall they maintain their heating
or cooling) used in AccuRate are detailed in Section 8.5.
These default settings are reflected in the stringency levels for
the star bands, ie the target load for a particular star rating
assumes that householders will behave in accordance with
those assumptions. As noted in Section 8.5, it has been
assumed that the thermostat settings for heating operation
are realistic and therefore valid for use in this study. However,
in terms of cooling operation it has been postulated on the
basis of some survey evidence that householders, following
initiation of cooling, will on average expect a higher level of
comfort than that adopted as the default in AccuRate (see
Section 8.5 for full details). This is particularly apparent in the
warmer climates.
The exact impact is subject to a complex set of variables
best assessed by comparing loads in sample houses under
default AccuRate conditions, with loads in the same houses
under the thermostat settings assumed for this study31. From
this comparative analysis the derived ratio was applied as a
scaling factor to the cooling component of the various star
band stringency levels adopted or scheduled to be adopted
in each jurisdiction.

8.4 Occupancy profiling


8.4.1

Background

Thermal simulation models such as AccuRate rely in part on


various inputs relating to user behaviour. The most critical
of these behaviour factors in terms of estimates of heating
and cooling loads are the comfort conditions required by
the occupants (primarily in the form of assumed thermostat
settings) and the actual hours of occupancy of the dwelling.

31 Note that this process also made allowance for the impacts of assumed
overshadowing. That is, the likely reduction in cooling loads and increase
in heating loads as a consequence of expected overshadowing from
such things as trees and adjoining properties. Impacts of overshadowing,
especially from trees are not generally accounted for in an assessment
for compliance with a minimum performance standard. This means that
dwellings designed to meet a particular standard and that are subject to
some overshadowing will in reality perform slightly better than predicted in
the summer and slightly worse in winter see Section 8.8.4.

SPACE CONDITIONING LOAD MODELLING METHODOLOGY


142

This section deals with this later aspect which is referred to


as the occupancy factor.
It is generally assumed that use of space conditioning
equipment correlates closely with hours of occupancy, or
more precisely that space heating and cooling are generally
only invoked by the householder when the household is
actually occupied by one or more of the residents. There
is some anecdotal evidence that in some households,
occupants will choose to operate space conditioning
equipment during periods of extended absence from the
dwelling 32 (eg during working hours) but it is thought that
this represents only a small proportion of total householders.
For the majority of householders, the space conditioning
will only be invoked when the dwelling is occupied33. The
actual occupancy profile for a given household is therefore
likely to significantly impact on both the total annual space
conditioning energy consumption as well as the hours of
maximum demand for space conditioning.
To provide a consistent basis for making comparative ratings
of the thermal performance of dwellings, simulation models
such as AccuRate make assumptions regarding, amongst
other things, the occupancy profile for households in Australia.
In the case of AccuRate the assumed occupancy is 24 hours a
day (although not all zones within the dwelling are assumed to
be continuously occupied. eg living spaces 7am until midnight,
bedroom spaces 4pm until 9am). This level of occupancy is
likely to be unrepresentative for a proportion of households in
Australia34. However, for the purposes of making a comparative
assessment between different house designs the use of this
relatively high occupancy factor is considered valid, even
desirable from the point of view of amplifying the differences in
performance between different designs.
While the use of a single (high) occupancy factor for the
purposes of making comparative assessments of building
thermal performance may be valid, for those who wish to
simulate actual consumption and time of use profiles for
a real population of households, a different approach is
indicated. What is required for this later form of assessment is
an occupancy profile (or set of profiles) that are representative
of the behaviour of the residents of the actual population of
households under investigation.
The following sections detail the approach used in this study
to determine a set of representative profiles for use with
Australian households.

32 For the purposes of simulation these houses could be considered as


effectively occupied.
33 This is of course provided that the other pre condition for the initiation of
space conditioning, failure to meet required internal comfort conditions, is
also met.

8.4.2

Analysis

To determine a representative set of occupancy profiles that


reflect actual householder behaviour in Australia, reference was
made to an ABS survey titled How Australians use their time
(Time Use Survey) ABS4153. This study was undertaken by
the ABS to obtain information about the way people allocate
time to different activities. It was conducted in both 1992 and
1997 over four periods during each year so as to balance
seasonal influences which might affect time use patterns.
In each study year, the study included samples of
approximately 4500 households (8600 persons), selected at
random. The sample selection was designed to ensure that
within each state and territory each person had an equal
chance of selection. Results were subsequently weighted so
that the estimated population distribution conformed to the
region by age, sex, employment status distribution, period of
year and day of week
In these studies each household member was required to
record where they were and what they were doing for each
hour of the day. Of particular interest was when they were at
home and when they were not.
The Sydney office of the ABS was contracted to interrogate
the unit records for each house covered in the survey. For
each hour of the day the number of households (weighted
values) where at least one respondent was home (physical
location =1) was tabulated. The data was disaggregated by
hour of day and day of week.
Results for 1992 and 1997 showed very little difference with
no significant trends so these two years were combined to
provide a single set of profiles. These profiles are presented in
Figure 81.
Occupancy levels noted represent the percentage of
households in the sample that had one or more residents in
occupancy during all or part of the noted hour.
From these profiles it was evident that there are apparently
three main types of profile, each with their own distinctive
(common) occupancy patterns, these were:
Weekdays These had high overnight and morning
occupancy levels followed by a significantly reduced
occupancy level between 9am and 5pm (down to approx.
55%) followed by a steady increase in occupancy over the
remainder of the evening.
Saturdays These had high overnight and morning
occupancy levels followed by a reduced occupancy level
between 9am and 5pm (approx. 70%) rising to approx. 80%
at 6pm then declining about 5% until about 9pm after which
the occupancy increased for the remainder of the evening.

34 It is notable however that the data shows at any given time of the day a
minimum of 60% of households are occupied.

SECTION 8
143

Figure 81: Residential Occupancy Profile Australia 1992 and 1997 (averaged)

OCCUPANCY (%)

120%

100%

Sunday
Monday
Tuesday

80%

60%

Wednesday
Thursday
Friday

40%

Saturday

20%

11 pm

12 midnight

10 pm

9 pm

8 pm

7 pm

6 pm

5 pm

4 pm

3 pm

2 pm

1 pm

12 noon

11 am

9 am

10 am

8 am

7 am

6 am

5 am

4 am

3 am

2 am

1 am

0%

TIME OF DAY

Figure 82 Residential Occupancy Profiles Australia

OCCUPANCY (%)

120%
Typical workday

ABS Average
Weekday (92 & 97)

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

12 midnight

11 pm

10 pm

9 pm

8 pm

7 pm

6 pm

5 pm

4 pm

3 pm

2 pm

1 pm

11 am

12 noon

10 am

9 am

8 am

7 am

6 am

5 am

4 am

3 am

2 am

1 am

0%

TIME OF DAY

SPACE CONDITIONING LOAD MODELLING METHODOLOGY


144

ABS Average
Saturday (92 & 97)

ABS Average
Sunday (92 & 97)

Sundays This profile is very similar to the Saturday profile


except that after 6pm (80% occupancy) there was a steady
increase rather than a temporary decline in occupancy.
These three types of days are presented as separate
profiles in Figure 82. In this figure the weekday profile was
determined by taking the average occupancy across all
fiveweekdays.
The AccuRate simulation software (like most forms of
simulation software) does not allow the user to set a
percentage occupancy rate for each hour of operation.
Rather, a dwelling or zone within that dwelling is either set as
occupied or unoccupied at any given hour. This means that
to be able to mimic the occupancy profiles represented in
Figure 82 it is necessary to create a set of profiles that when
combined will match (as closely as practical) the observed
occupancy profiles. To this end a detailed analysis of the
available data was undertaken to determine an appropriate
set of AccuRate profiles that when combined in specified
proportions would match the observed profiles. Three profiles
were developed as follows:
Home All Day profile At least one person in the
household is in occupancy throughout the 24 hour period.
This type of profile is likely to be applicable to retirees, stayat-home parents, the infirmed, unemployed, those that
operate from home officesetc.
At Work Profile At least one person in the household
is in occupancy throughout the 24 hour period except for
the period between approximately 9am and 5pm when the
dwelling is unoccupied. This type of profile is likely to be
applicable to dual income no kids, dual income with schoolage children or children in day care, single employed person
households, university students etc.
Night Owl Profile This is really a subset of either one of
the first two profiles except that the occupants for whatever
reason are out during the later part of the evening. This may
be because the occupants are shift workers or are simply
enjoying recreational/entertainment type activities. This profile
is most prevalent on a Saturday evening. From the available
data there is no way of knowing what proportion of these
Night Owls come from the Home All Day occupants and
what proportion come from the Work Profile occupants.
Because this group is most significant on a Saturday it
was decided to allocate them as a subset of the Home All
Dayoccupants.
The three profiles were specified as follows:
Home All Day 24 hour occupancy.
At Work Home from midnight until 9am* then from 5pm*
to midnight.
Night Owl Home from midnight til 5pm* then out
until10pm*.

* These times are of course the closest approximation to the


average time of leaving or returning to the household. Most
occupants in the profile category will leave from or return to
the dwelling within about an hour of these times, but individual
households may differ by a larger margin.

A small proportion of dwellings surveyed were simply


unoccupied for the entire 24 hours of a given day. These
were factored in as a fourth profile and assumed to have no
heating or cooling loads.
Having developed these four profiles (that can be effectively
modelled in simulation tools such as AccuRate) the next step
was to determine the appropriate proportions for each profile
so that the net effect of the weighted profiles matched (as
closely as practical) the actual observed occupancy profiles
as described in Figure 82.
The applied weightings that were determined are described
in Table 54 and graphically in Figure 83 (Weekday), Figure 84
(Saturday) and Figure 85 (Sunday), also below. From these
figures it can be seen that the match between the composite
profiles and those derived from the 1992 and 1997 ABS
statistics is quite good. Better composite curve fitting could
be achieved through the use of more than three profiles
patterns but the added precision of fit was considered
unwarrantedbecause:
Determining the nature of other occupancy profiles would
be highly speculative.
The added precision of fit would not be warranted
considering the likely error margin on the original ABS data
that is being matched.
Additional profiles would make software modelling using
these profiles more onerous with little if any benefit in
improved accuracy.

8.5 Zoning
Zoning is the tendency of some householders to limit space
conditioning to selected areas of their dwellings. This strategy
limits the amount of energy required by the household for
space conditioning compared to householders who choose
to space condition their entire dwelling. In some cases,
zoning occurs because the output of the relevant heating or
cooling equipment is of insufficient capacity to heat or cool
the whole dwelling. But many householders consciously
limit active space conditioning to living areas (which is more
typical in Australia than in more severe climates in North
America or Europe, for example) with only limited heating or
cooling in bedroom areas.
The default settings in AccuRate limit space conditioning
from 7am until midnight in living spaces and 4pm until 9am
in bedroom spaces. This means that effectively these spaces
are partially zoned by virtue of the fact that they are assumed
to be unoccupied and therefore unconditioned for certain
portions of the day (although in reality some householders
may choose to condition unoccupied spaces). The issue of

SECTION 8
145

Table 54: Applied Weightings to Occupancy Profiles by Day of Week


Day

Home All Day

At Work

Night Owl

Unoccupied

Weekday

48.3%

39.8%

10.8%

1.1%

Saturday

50.7%

22.7%

20.3%

6.3%

Sunday

62.5%

21.7%

10.6%

5.2%

Table 55: Penetration of Profile Types Weighted Annual Value


Profile

Weighted annual penetration

Home All Day

50.7%

At Work

34.8%

Night Owl

12.1%

Unoccupied

2.4%

Figure 83: Weekday Occupancy Profile Composite Versus ABS

OCCUPANCY (%)

120%

100%

80%

All Day Profile

Workday Profile

"Night Owl" Profile

60%

40%

20%

12 midnight

11 pm

10 pm

9 pm

8 pm

7 pm

6 pm

5 pm

4 pm

3 pm

2 pm

1 pm

11 am

12 noon

9 am

10 am

8 am

7 am

6 am

5 am

4 am

3 am

2 am

1 am

0%

TIME OF DAY

SPACE CONDITIONING LOAD MODELLING METHODOLOGY


146

Composite
Weekday profile
ABS Average
Weekday (92 & 97)

OCCUPANCY (%)

Figure 84: Saturday Occupancy Profile Composite Versus ABS

120%

All Day Profile

100%

Workday Profile

80%

Night Owl Profile

60%

40%

Composite
Saturday profile
ABS Average
Saturday (92 & 97)

20%

11 pm

12 midnight

9 pm

10 pm

8 pm

7 pm

6 pm

5 pm

4 pm

3 pm

2 pm

1 pm

11 am

12 noon

9 am

10 am

8 am

7 am

6 am

5 am

4 am

3 am

2 am

1 am

0%

TIME OF DAY

Figure 85: Sunday Occupancy Profile Composite Versus ABS

OCCUPANCY (%)

120%

100%

All Day Profile

Workday Profile

80%
Night Owl Profile
60%

40%

20%

Composite
Sunday profile
ABS Average
Sunday (92 & 97)

12 midnight

11 pm

10 pm

9 pm

8 pm

7 pm

6 pm

5 pm

4 pm

3 pm

2 pm

1 pm

11 am

12 noon

9 am

10 am

8 am

7 am

6 am

5 am

4 am

3 am

2 am

1 am

0%

TIME OF DAY

SECTION 8
147

how occupancy limits space conditioning use is dealt with in


Section 8.4. This section deals with limitations on the areas
of the dwelling that can be heated and or cooled if desired by
the householder.
In reality there is a very wide range of voluntary or imposed
zoning regimes adopted by different householders, ranging
from whole house heating and cooling to no heating or
cooling at all. Primarily, zoning strategies are understood to
be driven by the particular space conditioning technology
installed by the householder. A householder with only a
single room heater in their living room cannot choose to heat
the entire house or for that matter cool any of their dwelling
whereas a householder with a ducted reverse-cycle air
conditioner can choose to heat or cool their entire dwelling (if
the system is of sufficient capacity).
For the purposes of this study it was assumed that each of
the various space conditioning technologies known to be
installed in Australian households (see Section 6) will impose
on average a specific zoning factor that will constrain
the actual space heating and cooling energy consumption
estimated by AccuRate under the standard zoning
assumptions. The specific zoning factors adopted for this
study are detailed in Table 56.
It should be noted that these zoning factors also factor in a
discount for external wall area which is included in ABS data
relating to floor areas of new dwellings. External walls typically
account for between 5% and 10% of total floor area, which

effectively limits zoning levels to about 90% maximum, which


is only used for a few appliance types.
As far as possible the zoning factors were kept at a uniform
level across states and this factor is intended to be a broad
reflection of both the capability of the heating or cooling
appliance as well as a factor to indicate its normal use.
Hence large capacity ducted systems tend to have a high
zoning factor they are designed to heat or cool most of
the house and in most cases they are used in this way.
However, in many regions of Australia bedrooms tend not be
conditioned extensively, which reduces overall zoning factors.
In contrast, electric resistive space heating typically has a
limited output of 2.4kW per unit and can effectively only
heat a small part of the living area, even where several units
are used together, hence the small zoning factor. Heating
a house in this manner is also expensive so this tends to
limit the use of such heaters. The zoning factors are also
tempered indirectly by the differences in ownership at a state
level and the absolute heating or cooling requirement. Colder
states tend to have larger heaters capable of higher heater
outputs and tend to have lower operating costs (eg gas and
wood), so these heating systems are self-selected to some
degree. So while electric resistive space heaters have the
same zoning in Victoria as NSW, in Victoria this represents
a much larger load for these houses but in practical terms
few houses rely on this technology as their main heater. In
contrast, the milder winters in much of NSW and Queensland
mean that these types of heaters are in fact commonly used,
even if they are only partly effective.

Table 56: Zoning Factors by Space Conditioning Technologies and State


Module

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

Resistive Heating

0.25

0.25

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

Reverse Cycle Room - Heating

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

Ducted heaters Reverse Cycle

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

Room Gas Heaters

0.25

0.6

0.25

0.25

0.25

0.5

0.25

0.3

Ducted Gas Heaters

0.6

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.7

LPG Gas Room Heaters

0.3

0.5

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.5

0.3

0.5

Wood Heaters Closed

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

Wood Heaters Open

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

Room Reverse Cycle Cooling

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.25

0.3

Room Cooling Only

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.25

0.3

Central Ducted Cooling

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

Evaporative

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

Note: These values were applied to the stock of installed appliances in all states and all years. The only exceptions were as follows:
SA gas room heaters were increased to 0.4 and ducted heaters to 0.8 by 2020
WA gas room heaters were increased to 0.35 and ducted heaters to 0.7 by 2020
ACT gas room heaters were increased to 0.5 and ducted heaters to 0.8 by 2020

SPACE CONDITIONING LOAD MODELLING METHODOLOGY


148

The pattern in warmer states is a bit more complex. Ironically


Queensland had a low air conditioner ownership in the 1990s
(third lowest) as house designs took advantage of local
conditions (breezeways etc). Queensland has now jumped to
have the second-highest air conditioner ownership (most units
installed are non-ducted reverse-cycle units which can also be
used as a primary or secondary heater as required). NT has
always been different and is dominated by Darwin and Alice
Springs where hot conditions make air conditioner ownership
very common. But these have mostly been small window wall
units (often several per home) so the zoning factor there is fairly
small. Other warm states (SA and WA in particular) have had
a high share of ducted refrigerative and evaporative systems
which tend to have higher zoning factors.
As covered in Section 6, losses from ducted systems (gas
and air conditioning) have been estimated to be 25%,
although individual cases are known to be significantly worse
than this value.
One complication that arises with room heaters or nonducted air conditioners (as distinct from whole house space
conditioning systems) is the question of which space is
the device located? AccuRate recognises two main zones,
living zones and bedroom zones. Depending upon which
of these zones the room heater or cooler is located, the load
will obviously vary. Unfortunately AccuRate is not set up to
easily model separate heating and/or cooling of bedroom
zones alone. In any case there are numerous complicating
factors that make it difficult to make an assessment of
how conditioning either bedroom or living room zones
alone will impact on total heating and cooling loads. These
complications include:
No reliable data is available regarding the proportion of
households that site room heaters/coolers in living spaces
compared to bedroom spaces.
In some cases, householders will install multiple room
heaters or coolers, with one or more in each zone (eg the
Northern Territory has an air conditioner saturation of 2.2
overall, and 2.6 per household with non-ducted systems
separate bedroom units are common).
At night, bedroom zones may be opened to conditioned
living zones to get at least some cooling/heating in both
zones from a single room conditioner. However, in practical
terms overnight use of air conditioners is limited to the hot
tropics or during very limited periods of very hot weather (of
the order of two to four weeks per year in SA and WA) in
which the energy implications are minor.
Conditioning of only one space may be less efficient than
expected because unconditioned air may be pulled into
that space if the conditioned and the unconditioned zones
are not adequately sealed from one another.
Given these uncertainties, it was decided that in the case
of space conditioning technologies that are designed to
condition only part of a dwelling, that the zoning constraint
factor would be applied to the load per unit area for the

dwelling as a whole as distinct from the load per unit area


associated with either the living or the bedroom zones alone.

8.6 Thermostat operation


The AccuRate simulation software applies heating or cooling
to each zone within the dwelling during the specified hours
of occupancy for that zone. Space conditioning is not,
however, invoked unless required. The invoking of space
conditioning depends upon an hourly assessment of the
internal environmental conditions compared with an assumed
comfort requirement that takes into account the dry bulb
temperature (Table 57 for the default thermostat settings
used in AccuRate) and to a lesser degree the humidity and
the degree of air movement within the zone.
The exact process for invoking space conditioning is
described below in an extract from the AccuRate help file:

Heating
Heating is applied if the zone temperature at the
end of the hour without heating is below the heating
thermostat setting. Enough heat is supplied so that the
zone temperature at the end of the hour is equal to the
thermostat setting.

Cooling
1. If at the end of the hour the zone condition (i.e.
temperature and moisture content) without cooling or
ventilation is within the comfort region on the psychometric
chart, cooling is not invoked. The comfort region is a
parallelepiped, the boundaries of which are:
Top: Absolute moisture content = 12 g/kg
Bottom: Absolute moisture content = 0 g/kg (normally it
is four g/kg but AccuRate will not invoke cooling merely
because the air is too dry)
Right: ET* line passing through the point corresponding
to (Cooling Thermostat + 2.5) degrees and 50% RH
Left: Not relevant

2. If at the end of the hour the zone condition without


cooling or ventilation is outside the comfort region,
ventilation is switched on (i.e. windows and other controlled
openings in this zone are opened) provided that the zone
temperature is greater than the outdoor air temperature four degrees. The new zone temperature is calculated and
an indoor air speed is estimated. If the indoor air speed
is above 0.2 m/s, the comfort region described above is
extended in two ways: the top boundary becomes the
90% RH line, and the right boundary becomes an ET*
line passing through the point corresponding to (Cooling
Thermostat + 2.5 + dT) and 50% RH, where:
dT = 6*(v - 0.2) - 1.6*(v - 0.2),
where v is the indoor air speed (m/s). An upper limit of 1.5
m/s is imposed on the indoor air speed.

SECTION 8
149

If the zone condition with natural ventilation is within the


extended comfort region, cooling is not invoked.

Tn = The cooling thermostat adopted in AccuRate rounded


to the nearest 0.5 degrees

3. If the zone condition with natural ventilation remains


outside the extended comfort region, and ceiling fans
are available in that zone, the indoor air speed calculated
from natural ventilation is replaced by an indoor air speed
appropriate to the number of fans and zone floor area
(based on the cooling benefit of ceiling fans - see Zone
details). If the zone condition with ceiling fans and natural
ventilation is within the extended comfort region, cooling is
not invoked.
4. If the zone condition with ceiling fans and natural
ventilation is still outside the extended comfort region,
the zone openings are closed, ceiling fans (if any) are
switched off, and sufficient cooling is applied so that the
zone temperature at the end of the hour is the cooling
thermostat setting.
The cooling thermostat setting adopted in AccuRate (known
as the summer neutral temperature Tn) is calculated using
the de Dears adaptive comfort model, as adopted by
ASHRAE see - Developing an Adaptive Model of Thermal
Comfort and Preference Final Report, ASHRAE RP- 884,
(Richard de Dear et al).
The relevant algorithm used for setting of the AccuRate
summer neutral temperatures based on de Dears work is
asfollows:
Tn = 17.8 + 0.31*Tout,
where

Tout = The mean January temperature for the weather data


file used by AccuRate
The De Dear model adopted in AccuRate is designed for
free running buildings (ie those that do not utilise space
heating or cooling equipment). The premise underpinning
de Dears model is that building occupants thermal ideals
are influenced by their thermal experiences both indoors
and outdoors (Richard de Dear et al 1997 p. xi). In a free
running building this equates to a relatively steep slope in
the linear regression comparing neutral indoor temperature
with outdoor temperature and this is reflected in the relatively
wide range of AccuRate thermostat settings from cool to
hot climate zones (see Table 57). By contrast, for constantly
conditioned buildings de Dear found that the acceptable
range for summer neutral was narrow, 22-23C irrespective
of outside air temperature ie occupants of fully conditioned
buildings are likely to expect homogeneity in their thermal
environment (Richard de Dear et al 1997).
Residential buildings with space conditioning (ie the focus of
this study) are neither constantly conditioned or permanently
free running so the operation of space cooling becomes
more complex. For the purposes of this study it was
postulated that, up until the point when cooling is invoked,
occupants will tend to act more like the building is in free
running mode and the default summer neutral temperatures
in AccuRate can reasonably be applied. However, once
cooling is invoked, occupants are assumed to act as if
the building is one that is constantly conditioned and the
acceptable comfort region will be within a narrow band
(about 22-23C) irrespective of external thermal experiences.

Table 57: Default AccuRate Thermostat Settings for Selected Climates


Grouped Climate Zone (Heating)

H1

H2

H3

H4

H5

H6

H7

H8

H9

H10

Grouped Climate Zone (Cooling)

C10

C9

C7

C4

C8

C6

C2

C3

C5

C1

1 Darwin

5 wnsville

10 Brisbane

16 Adelaide

21 Melurne RO

24 Canberra

56 Mascot (Airport)

60 Tullamarine (Airport)

62 rabbin (Airport)

65 Orange

26.5

26.5

25.5

25

24

24

24.5

24

24

23

Heating Thermostat - Living Zones (oC)

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

Heating Thermostat - Bedroom Zones


(Waking Hours) (oC)

18

18

18

18

18

18

18

18

18

18

Heating Thermostat - Living Zones (Sleeping


hours) (oC)

15

15

15

15

15

15

15

15

15

15

AccuRate Climate Zone

Cooling Thermostat - All Zones (oC)

SPACE CONDITIONING LOAD MODELLING METHODOLOGY


150

In the AccuRate software, once cooling is invoked the


program continues to assume that the occupant is willing to
tolerate less than optimal comfort conditions and will therefore
terminate cooling if in the absence of such cooling the
internal temperature would not rise above the summer neutral
temperature noted in Table 57, + 2.5oC plus allowances for
humidity and air movement as applicable. While this may
be appropriate for rating purposes, it is considered to be an
unlikely form of behaviour to be adopted by householders in the
field and as such this assumption is likely to underestimate the
potential space cooling demand. This theory is supported by
the survey work undertaken by McGreggor in SouthAustralia.
Survey work undertaken by McGregor Tan Research for Energy
SA (Electricity Demand Report 2005, McGregor Tan Research
2002) suggests that for Adelaide, householders select a range
of cooling thermostat temperatures from approximately 18C to
26C, with the average space cooling thermostat temperature
selected by occupants being approximately 23C, ie significantly
lower than the 25C adopted in the AccuRate Model35.
This is perhaps not surprising, de Dear notes that: preferred
temperature for a particular building did not necessarily
coincide with thermal neutrality, and this semantic discrepancy
was most evident in HVAC buildings where preference was
depressed below neutrality in warm climates and elevated
above neutrality in cold climates (ie people preferred to feel
cooler than neutral in warm climates, and warmer than neutral
in cold climates) (Richard de Dear et al 1997, P xi).
For the purposes of this study it was concluded (and
agreed with DEWHA) that where space cooling is available,
the evidence suggests that occupants are likely to expect
homogeneity in their thermal environment (unless they are
very environmentally or cost conscious) and the default cooling
settings used in the AccuRate model, while suitable for rating
purposes, are less than optimal for simulating actual use.

+ allowances for air movement and humidity as noted in the


AccuRate user manual.
Once initiated, cooling remains invoked in the subject zone
until, in the absence of further space cooling, the internal
temperature would fall below the thermostat temperature
setting36 plus a 2.5C dead band (noting that no allowances
are made for air movement or shifts in humidity). In this new
research version of AccuRate the initiation temperature
is hard wired into the programming but the thermostat
temperature can be set as required using the AccuBatch
facility. The actual thermostat temperatures adopted and
agreed with DEWHA are presented in Table 58.
The impact of this resetting of the cooling thermostat operation
was found to be significant. A comparison was undertaken
between cooling loads determined using the AccuRate
default thermostat settings and the modified settings as
describedabove. A single-storey brick veneer detached
dwelling with concrete slab on ground floor and ceiling insulation
was used for the comparison. The comparison was undertaken
in both the Adelaide and the Darwin climate zones. In Adelaide
the modified settings produced an increased annual cooling
load 64% higher than that using the AccuRate default settings.
In Darwin the increase was 55%. The results for the Adelaide
analysis are presented graphically in Figure 86. In this figure the
cooling load associated with the Accurate default thermostat
setting of 25C (red data point) is compared to a range of other
settings including 23C as adopted in this study. Interestingly,
for the range of thermostat settings examined the relationship
between internal thermostat setting and cooling load is almost
perfectly linear (R2 = 0.99).
In the longer term, this studys findings regarding thermostat
settings for space cooling may have important implications for
regulatory use of AccuRate.

To address this issue for the purposes of this study, CSIRO


produced a special research version of the AccuRate Engine
with a revised cooling operation as follows:
Initiation of cooling occurs as per the current arrangement,
ie at the summer neutral temperature (see Table 57) + 2.5C

35 Noting that AccuRate also allows an additional 2.5C deadband over and
above this figure of 25oC ie effectively 27.5oC.

36 The thermostat setting unlike the initiation temperature (based on the


summer neutral temperature) is now set at a level commensurate with
that likely to be selected by those who own (and have initiated) space
coolingequipment.

Table 58: Thermostat Settings Adopted for this Study (Set using AccuBatch)
5 Townsville

10 Brisbane

16 Adelaide

21 Melbourne RO

24 Canberra

56 Mascot
(Airport)

60 Tullamarine
(Airport)

62 Moorabbin
(Airport)

65 Orange

Cooling Thermostat - All Zones (C)

1 Darwin

AccuRate Climate Zone

24

24

23.5

23

23

23

23

23

23

23

SECTION 8
151

ANNUAL COOLING (MJ/M2)

Figure 86: Cooling Loads Associated with Various Thermostat Settings Among Detached Dwellings in Adelaide
120

100
Thermostat setting adopted in this study

80
AccuRate Default

60
Trendline

40
y = -15.33x + 422.63

20

R = 0.9933

0
20.5

21

21.5

22

22.5

23

23.5

24

24.5

25

25.5

THERMOSTAT SETTING (C)

8.7 Climate files


8.7.1

Historical climate data

In order that a building thermal performance simulation can


be undertaken, one of the necessary inputs is a climate data
set. The climate data set (one for each climate zone studied)
consists of hourly values over an entire year of data collected
by the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). These data sets include
the following parameters:
Dry bulb temperature (10-1 C)
Absolute moisture content (10-1 g/kg)
Atmospheric pressure (kPa)
Wind speed (m/s)
Wind direction (0-16)

Climate Data Base (ACDB) and used test reference year


(TRY) values which consisted of a single actual year of
weather data selected from the available years (1967 to
1987) on the basis of excluding extreme values of dry bulb
temperatureonly.
This meant that the simulations of space conditioning loads
undertaken for the earlier study were not based on actual
year-to-year climatic conditions (not available at the time) but
rather on an assumed average year or TRY. For a particular
stock of dwellings, this single climate data set would produce
the same results in terms of predicted space conditioning
loads for each year studied. In reality, climatic conditions will
vary from year-to-year and space conditioning loads would
be expected to vary in response.

Solar azimuth (degrees)

At the initiation of this latest study, new ACDB files had been
produced by Energy Partners et al (see: Development of
Climate Data for Building Related Energy Rating Software,
Energy Partners et al 2007) that included actual climate files
from 1967 to 2004 for each of the 69 AccuRate climate
zones. The availability of this new resource allowed for the
simulation of space conditioning load to be undertaken using
actual climate data at least from our base year of 1986 to
2004 inclusive.

In 1999 at the time of preparation of the first edition of this


study Australian Residential Building Sector Greenhouse
Gas Emissions 1990-2010 (EES 1999) NatHERS thermal
performance modelling software was used. The climate
data sets used in conjunction with this software were the
default climate files that were supplied with the software.
These default climate files were based on the Australian

For each of the 10 climate zones utilised in this study,


simulations on the sample dwellings were undertaken
separately for each financial year from 1986 to 2004 (ie 19
simulation runs in total per climate zone). Because ACDB
files are structured as calendar rather than financial years, a
process was first undertaken to divide each of the ACDB files
into two half years and then the last six months of one year

Total cloud cover (oktas)


Global solar irradiance on a horizontal plane (W/m2)
Diffuse solar irradiance on a horizontal plane (W/m2)
Direct solar irradiance on a plane normal to the beam
(W/m2)
Solar altitude (degrees)

SPACE CONDITIONING LOAD MODELLING METHODOLOGY


152

with global warming predictions for more extreme summer


weather conditions in most of Australia.

was spliced on to the first six months of the following year to


create financial year ACDB files.

The trend in predicted potential total space conditioning


load over the study period is relatively flat.

To gauge the impact of variations in climate (1986 to 2004)


on the potential space conditioning loads, the space
conditioning load model was artificially configured to produce
a fixed stock profile over the 19-year period. The stock
profile was set at that determined for 1995 (ie the mid-point
in the data set). The differing AccuRate simulation results
(MJ/m2) for each year (using the ACDB file for that particular
year) were then applied. This type of analysis is designed
to reveal the climate driven trends in potential space
conditioning demand exclusive of trends is housing stock
type andnumbers.

These observations noted above were found to be applicable


to all jurisdictions with the exception of Queensland and
Northern Territory where the heating trend was found to be
basically flat rather than declining37 and there was a slight trend
down in cooling (0.25% per annum in Qld and 0.5% pa in NT).
This slight trend down in cooling may be a statistical aberration
or it may reflect a trend towards increased cloud cover in
Northern Australia. Increased cloud cover would reduce direct
solar radiation which is one of the key determinants of cooling
load. Further research, possibly by a climatologist, would need
to be undertaken to better understand these emerging trends.

A sample of the results obtained from this analysis can be


seen in Figure 87 (South Australia).

The other point of interest in this analysis was the apparent


climate driven trend in potential cooling demand in Tasmania
(Figure 88). Over the period 1986 to 2004 there was an
increase in climate driven potential cooling demand of 8% per
annum. While this trend comes off a low base and there is
significant year-to-year volatility, the trend is significant.

A number of observations can be drawn from this figure:


As would be expected, predicted potential heating and
cooling loads vary according to the particular climatic
conditions that prevailed in each year studied.
Predicted potential heating and particularly cooling loads
can be quite volatile from year-to-year. In the case of SA,
heating varies by a factor of 1.3 and cooling by a factor of
3.7 over the study period.

8.7.2

The trend in predicted potential heating load over the study


period is downward. This trend is broadly consistent with
global warming predictions for increasingly milder winters in
most of Australia.

While the ACDB climate data files provide an excellent basis


for estimates of potential space conditioning loads up until
2004, forecasts beyond this date require that appropriate
climate data files be selected for that purpose. To this

The trend in predicted potential cooling load over the


study period is upward. This trend is broadly consistent

Climate projections

37 Noting that for these jurisdictions heating load comes off a relatively
lowbase.

Figure 87: Potential Space Conditioning Loads SA (Fixed Stock Profile)

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PJ)

25

Total

Trend
e

Heat
20
Cool
15

10

Trend
Total
Trend
Heat
Trend
Cool

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

YEAR

SECTION 8
153

Figure 88: Potential Space Cooling Loads Tasmania (Fixed Stock Profile)

SPACE COOLING LOAD (PJ)

1.4

Cool

Trend
e

1.2
1

Trend
Cool

0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

YEAR

end, work undertaken by Energy Partners in association


with Adelaide Applied Algebra and The Centre for Applied
Mathematics and Statistics University of South Australia was
utilised. This study produced typical meteorological year
(TMY) values for each of the 69 AccuRate climate zones.
These TMYs form the default climate files embodied within the
AccuRate simulation software. The TMYs were determined
using an internationally recognised methodology applied
to the available ACDB files (1967-2004) that can be best
summarised by reference to the below extract from the study
Development of Climate Data for Building Related Energy
Rating Software (Energy Partners et al 2007) Section 4.5 :

The construction of the typical meteorological year (TMY)


is based on the method outlined in the Users Manual
for TMY2s (Marion and Urban, 1995). It is an empirical
approach which selects individual months from different
years of the defined period of r-ecords. The method selects
a typical month, for each calendar month, based on the daily
values.
The indices are:
Maximum temperature
Minimum temperature
Mean temperature
Maximum wet bulb temperature
Minimum wet bulb temperature
Mean wet bulb temperature
Maximum wind speed
Mean wind speed
Diffuse radiation
Global radiation

The steps in the process of calculating the cumulative


distribution frequency (CDF) for each index of each
monthare:
Determine the maximum and the minimum values for
theindex
20 classes are established using the maximum and
minimum as upper and lower bounds
Count the number of data values which belong to each
class for each year and for all years (the long-term
frequencies)

Convert the frequencies from the previous step into


a CDF.
Comparing the predicted potential space conditioning loads
(2020) associated with the TMY (AccuRate default climate
year based on ACDB files 1967-2004) to that obtained using
the actual climate files applied over the years 1986 to 2004,
the following observations were made:
On average, Australia-wide, potential heating load
predicted in 2020 using the AccuRate default year climate
file was 4.9% higher than the result obtained using the
climate year file closest to the average heating load 1986
to 2004. In all jurisdictions the AccuRate default load
was higher (typically between 2%-10% higher). Given the
observed trend towards declining heating loads over the
period 1986 to 2004 this difference would be expected.
On average, Australia-wide, potential cooling load
predicted in 2020 using the AccuRate default climate
year was 1.5% higher than the result obtained using the
climate year file closest to the average cooling load 1986
to 2004. The AccuRate default cooling load was higher
than the 1986 to 2004 average in some jurisdictions

SPACE CONDITIONING LOAD MODELLING METHODOLOGY


154

(particularly SA and WA) and lower in others. Given the


observed general trend towards increasing cooling loads
over the period 1986 to 2004 the expectation was that
the potential cooling load predicted using the AccuRate
default year would have been lower rather than higher than
the 1986 to 2004 average (ie the AccuRate default TMY
is based on climate data back to 1967 rather than back
only to 1985). However, there is a degree of uncertainty
in estimates of average years for cooling especially in
jurisdictions such as SA, WA and Tasmania which all have
highly volatile year-to-year potential cooling loads (eg in
SA the standard deviation over the 1986 to 2004 period
is double the observed difference between the potential
cooling load predicted using the AccuRate default year and
that predicted using the year closest to the average cooling
load 1986 to 2004).
For the purposes of this study it was agreed with DEWHA
that for forward (BAU) projections the default AccuRate
(TMY) climate data sets would be used. Given the observed
trends over the past 20 years, the use of these files is likely
to give reasonably accurate estimates of cooling loads (but
with some variability in accuracy from state-to-state due to
the significant volatility of this metric) and only a small over
estimate of forecast heating loads (given the trend towards
milder winters). However, it must be stressed that predictions
of future climate trends are subject to a significant degree of
uncertainty.

8.8 Miscellaneous settings


and assumptions
8.8.1

Ceiling heights

Presently, the minimum ceiling height permitted in habitable


rooms of new dwellings is 2.4 metres. Historically, greater
ceiling heights have featured especially in better quality
housing, heights could range from 2.4 metres to 3.6 metres
or more for some older stock.
For the more contemporary samples of detached housing
used in this study, including the two-storey sample, a ceiling
height of 2.4 metres was adopted as being representative.
This value was also applied to all semi detached dwellings
and to all flats.
The generic single storey detached dwelling sample used
to represent housing from earlier last century was modelled
with a 2.7 metre high ceiling. More recent samples of this
dwelling type could be expected to typically have 2.4 metre
high ceilings, samples from around the middle of last century
would have heights typically in the range 2.4 to 3.0 metres
and those that predated the middle of last century would
have had heights ranging from 2.4 metres to 3.6 metres. The
height of 2.7 metres was adopted on the basis that this is
notionally a representative height for this category of housing.

In the sample used specifically for South Australia there


were a number of specific samples included to represent
housing from the late 19th to early 20th century (see Section
8.3.1). For these dwellings a ceiling height of 3.0 metres was
adopted on advice from Energy SA.
While some effort was made to adopt representative ceiling
heights, previous experience with NatHERS modelling
suggests that even moderate changes in ceiling height will
not significantly affect thermal performance.

8.8.2

Windows / glazing

Size, format and location of windows were modelled as


presented in the sample dwellings used for this study.
Generally window to net conditioned floor area ratios in the
sample were in the range 20%-30%. Contemporary housing
was modelled using awning-type windows whereas pre-WWII
housing was modelled with double-hung-type sashes.
Window framing was generally set as standard aluminium.
Aluminium is the dominant form of window framing in the
housing market today (although timber frames are not
insignificant) and it has been for some time. The performance
of aluminium framing is also similar to the steel frames which
were dominant several decades ago and, as such, this form
of framing was considered to be the most thermally indicative
option. For the late 19th and early 20th century housing types
modelled for South Australia, timber framing was selected.
Glazing was universally set as clear single glazed. Other
forms of glazing, including double glazing and comfort plus
type glazing, are beginning to gain market share with the
recent advent of thermal performance requirements in the
various building codes. Housing affected by such thermal
performance requirements are not modelled on the basis
of sample dwellings but rather on the basis of an assumed
performance standard in which the inclusion of higher
performance glazing systems is implicit38.

8.8.3

Orientation

Orientation of the sample dwellings will affect the level of


exposure to incident solar radiation, most importantly on
windows. From experience it is known that in the field,
orientation of most housing is almost entirely random, that
is, favourable orientation in terms of passive solar design
principles is rarely a consideration39. Decisions regarding
orientation are typically made based upon the shape and

38 That is, a proportion of performance based housing will utilize higher


performance glazing formats as a means for achieving compliance
with a particular standard. With expected increases in stringency levels
in the coming years the proportion of dwellings expected to use high
performance glazing is anticipated to rise.
39 With expected future increases in housing thermal performance stringency
levels this may change.

SECTION 8
155

topography of the block and the position of the road, ie


naturally random variables.
In the 1999 baseline study it was found that the generic
detached house used for modelling showed little sensitivity
to orientation, that is, little difference in thermal performance
between the most and least favourable orientations. This
is to be expected given that the generic detached house is
not a passive-solar designed house. Unlike a passive solar
design it has a reasonably even distribution of glazing around
its perimeter. The non-detached house types demonstrated
greater thermal performance sensitivity to orientation. This,
too, was to be expected, given that the non-detached house
types generally have glazing on only one or two external walls
(the other walls being common walls).
Passive-solar designs may in the future gain a significant
market share especially if thermal performance stringency
levels are further increased. However, for modelling purposes
this is not an issue because such dwellings are modelled in
this study on the basis of an assumed performance standard
in which the inclusion of passive solar design is implicit.
For this study it was assumed that our generic house plans
will be found to be evenly distributed around the range of
possible orientations. To model this, AccuRate runs were
conducted for each of the four cardinal orientations and the
results averaged. Initially the front door of the dwelling was
assumed to be oriented to the north, the dwellings were then
rotated through the remaining ordinal points.

8.8.4

Shading

The overshadowing of dwellings by features other than those


that form part of the dwelling (eg eaves which are explicitly
modelled on the basis of the sample dwelling design) can
impact on heating and cooling loads. Examples of sources
of overshadowing include; adjoining properties, trees
and shrubs, fencing and so on. Unfortunately there is no
known source that can provide data on the extent of such
shading on an average dwelling in Australia. To deal with this
shortcoming the following approach was taken:

Detached Dwellings
A representative sub-sample of the detached dwellings
was modelled with an assumed overshadowing regime in
order that a solar discount or suburbia factor could be
determined. This suburbia factor could then be applied to
the broader range of detached dwellings to allow for the
inadvertent and planned shading of dwellings by planting,
pergolas etc. and neighbouring buildings. This suburbia
factor is a professional judgment as no objective research
in this field is known. The basis for modelling this suburbia
factor was as follows:
A single-storey detached dwelling was modelled through
all four cardinal points and in each of the 10 representative
climate zones.

It was assumed that the dwelling had a neighbouring


dwelling on either side. These were input into AccuRate as
external screens.
The neighbouring dwellings were of the same height and
length and front boundary setback as the sample dwelling.
On one side the neighbour was offset two metres from the
nearest wall of the sample dwelling (ie nominally 2 x the
minimum side boundary setback) and on the other side
it was offset four metres (ie a driveway width plus a one
metre minimum side boundary setback).
To the front and rear of the dwelling a 30% shading factor
was applied to account for overshadowing from plants
and shrubs. In the AccuRate inputs this took the form of
fixed shading over the entire front and back yards with a
blocking factor of 30%.
The results of the analysis are presented in Table 59. This
table indicates that, depending upon the climate zone under
consideration, the effect of the assumed levels of shading
is to increase heating loads by up to 9% and to decrease
cooling loads by up to 12%.

Semi-detached Dwellings and Flats


Apart from overshadowing from features that form part of
these dwellings, the physical structures that constituted
neighbouring properties (eg wing walls extending beyond
party walls) were also included in the modelling process.
Unlike for detached dwellings, no further allowances for
overshadowing were made for these classes of dwelling. That
is, no suburbia factor was applied on the basis that there
is usually limited opportunity for the inclusion of trees and
plantings around these types of dwelling.

8.8.5

Curtains and Blinds

There is no known source of data on the extent and types


of internal and external window coverings used in Australian
households. Privacy considerations suggest that most
households are likely to have some form of internal window
covering at least in some rooms.
For the purposes of this study it was assumed that all
windows were fitted with Holland blinds. This is the default
setting adopted in AccuRate in rating mode. In terms of
limiting heat transfers, Holland blinds rank midway between
the least effective option (no internal window coverings) and
the most effective option (heavyweight curtains).
Operation of the internal blinds is in accordance with the
default AccuRate assumptions regarding average user
behaviour. The AccuRate software offers no user options to
vary these behavioural settings.
For the purposes of this study no external blinds were
assumed to be fitted. Where windows have large eaves,
verandas or other such shading features, or where the
windows face orientations where little direct solar gain is

SPACE CONDITIONING LOAD MODELLING METHODOLOGY


156

Table 59: Suburbia Factors for Detached Dwellings


Selected AccuRate Climate Zone

Suburbia Factor (Heating)

Suburbia Factor (Cooling)

1 Darwin

100%

97%

5 Townsville

100%

97%

10 Brisbane

109%

97%

16 Adelaide

107%

94%

21 Melbourne RO

105%

93%

24 Canberra

104%

88%

56 Mascot (Airport)

108%

93%

60 Tullamarine (Airport)

105%

90%

62 Moorabbin (Airport)

105%

93%

65 Orange

104%

100%

received during the cooling season, the absence of external


blinds will make little difference to the thermal performance
of the dwelling. For dwellings with windows that are subject
to significant solar gain during the cooling season then the
assumption regarding absence of external blinds is likely
to lead to a small overestimate of cooling load if in fact the
particular dwelling has external blinds fitted. To some extent
the possibility of external blinds is accounted for under the
provisions for shading (see Section 8.8.4)

8.8.6

Natural Ventilation

All dwellings in the sample are assumed to be able to be


cooled using outside air when favourable conditions exist. By
default the AccuRate software opens external openings for
ventilation at any time of the day if the zone temperature is
too high for comfort and the conditions are favourable. If the
house can be kept within comfort parameters using natural
ventilation only, then the air conditioning is not activated. If
ventilation alone is not able to maintain comfort conditions,
the external openings are assumed to be closed and the air
conditioning started.
For this study the default AccuRate operation of ventilation
openings is utilised, except that the trigger temperatures for
switching back to natural ventilation after air conditioning has
been initiated have been modified (see Section 8.5).
For all windows it is assumed that during the cooling season
that flywire screens are fitted (these will reduce the efficacy of
the natural ventilation).

8.8.7

Infiltration

Infiltration of air into and out of a dwelling serves to transfer


heat into and out of the dwelling. The level of infiltration is
mainly affected by the following factors:
Whether or not there are any unsealed chimneys.
Whether or not wall or ceiling vents are present.
Whether or not exhaust fans are present.
Whether or not vented down-lights are present.
How well windows and doors are sealed.
Whether or not there are vented skylights.
The external wind speed.
There is little available data on the characteristics of the
building stock in terms of these factors, so professional
judgment was used when setting these parameters. The
following assumptions were made:

Chimneys
Chimneys, if present were assumed to be sealed. Most open
fireplaces have now been replaced with closed combustion
heaters or inserts that incorporate dampers that allow the
fireplace to be effectively sealed.

Wall or ceiling vents


For this study it was assumed that wall or ceiling vents (found
mainly in housing built at least 30 years ago) have now
beensealed.

SECTION 8
157

Exhaust Fans
For all sample dwellings modelled in this study the following
assumptions were made in respect of provision of mechanical
ventilation systems:
All kitchens are fitted with one unsealed exhaust fan.
All bathrooms are fitted with one unsealed exhaust fan.
All en-suites (where present) are fitted with one unsealed
exhaust fan.

Down-lights
Based on import data for ELV down-lights and advice from
Steve Beletich, it was estimated that the average number of
ELV down-lights per household would be between two and
four40. For the purposes of this study the higher value of four
per dwelling was adopted. This higher value was adopted in
consideration of the growing trend towards increased use of
this form of lighting in dwellings, especially new dwellings.

Window and door sealing


Door and window sealing was set to medium gaps.
In reality some stock will be well sealed (set to small)
and some poorly sealed (set to large). Medium was
considered a reasonable stock average. Weather stripping
was not included.

Skylights
Skylights where present were assumed to be unvented
unless located in bathrooms where they were assumed to
bevented.

Wind speed
Prevailing wind speed and direction is pre-specified in the
climate files and represent actual wind conditions in the
selected climate zones from 1986 to 2005. Beyond 2005
wind conditions conform to the AccuRate default TMY.

40 Noting that the range found in individual dwellings can be significant, from
zero to more than 50.

SPACE CONDITIONING LOAD MODELLING METHODOLOGY


158

Source: Sustainable Pty Ltd

SECTION 9

CALIBRATION OF STOCK MODEL

9 Calibration of the
stock model
9.1 Process overview
The model developed by EES as part of this project is a
bottom-up type model. As explained elsewhere, it uses
information on known product attributes, together with
ownership data, usage patterns and climate to develop an
estimate of the energy consumption of households based
on the products that are in homes. The energy estimates
from each of the product modules can be checked against
known end-use measurements or laboratory test data to
confirm that the energy estimates for each end use are
reasonable. However, some of the parameters such as
usage patterns are not always well documented or data is
difficult to obtain, so in many cases well educated estimates
have been developed. A complete review of each product
and comparisons against third-party sources is included
inSection 6.
Having completed the set up and operation of all the enduse modules, an important first step was to collate all of
the energy consumption estimates for each year and each
state and territory and compare this against actual data for
the same period. In some cases small adjustments to some
stock model parameters are required to better match the
models bottom-up estimates with actual data.
In such a complex model, there are not very many
parameters that can be easily adjusted in a transparent
manner in order to make the bottom-up energy estimates
match the top-down total energy consumption values by
state. The few that have been adjusted are briefly outlined
in this section. A brief overview of the bottom-up and topdown data for each state is included to provide some level of
confidence of the models initial energy outputs.
The key attributes that have been adjusted as part of the
initial calibration are:
Hot water volume even though the hot water demand
model makes some adjustments at a state level to account
for different cold water temperatures, household sizes
and ambient conditions, it was found to be necessary
to increase the hot water consumption by 5% from the
assumed base level for colder states (TAS, VIC, ACT) and
to reduce the hot water volume by 15% in hotter states
(SA, QLD and NT) while a small adjustment was required
for WA (-5%). This seems reasonable in terms of likely
total hot water demand (and suggests that the original
temperature factors were understated in the hot water
demand model cold water temperatures are likely to have
a positive feedback effect on hot water use like showers).
Space Conditioning the space conditioning load
model (using AccuRate modelling) output has three
occupancy profiles built into it, so no adjustments based

CALIBRATION OF STOCK MODEL


160

on occupancy were made as part of the space heating


module. It is important to note that occupancy factors were
applied uniformly to all states and in reality there may be
some state variation that has not been included. This is
most likely to be important in states with significant space
conditioning loads.
Zoning level adjustments were the only means available in
the model that could be varied to affect the level of space
conditioning energy consumption. Zoning is the tendency
for householders to only control the indoor climate in part
of their dwellings. Often this is due to limits on the output
capacity of the space conditioning equipment (especially
non-ducted heaters and air conditioners) to actually heat or
cool the whole house. As a general rule, zoning for heating
was set at higher levels in colder states. Gas central
heating in Victoria is known to be widespread and heavily
used: even gas room heaters are known to be larger and
capable of heating a large proportion of the house (eg wall
furnaces are common), so the zoning factors for this state
were higher than for other states. Natural gas distribution
in Melbourne has a very high penetration and the heating
load is substantial. This effect was also found in the 1999
study. The gas consumption in Victoria (and in Australia) is
dominated by space heating in Victoria and an extremely
close match for gas consumption in Victoria on a year-toyear basis was achieved with this end-use model (actual
weather data has been used to 2004). The precise zoning
factors used are set out in Table 56.
Miscellaneous electricity this is used to account for
many of the end uses not directly estimated as part of
the model. This covers a wide range of end uses such as
power tools, fish tanks, vacuum cleaners, small kitchen
appliances (when not on standby), pumps, portable or
plug-based lamps (eg desk lamps or night lights), electric
blankets, range-hoods, irons and so forth. Some of these
items are common with low use (eg vacuum cleaners and
toasters have been metered in NZ and typically used 20
kWh/year) while some of these products are rare but may
use considerably more power when present (eg pumps).
However, overall electricity consumption by these items
is generally small in an average household. It was found
that a flat allowance of 200 kWh per household per year
over the period 1986 to 2006 gave a reasonable estimate
of these types of loads. It was found that a miscellaneous
load of 100 kWh for QLD and NT and 300 kWh/year for
TAS, ACT, VIC and NSW provided a slightly better overall fit
for electricity consumption. This suggests that much of the
residual miscellaneous electricity load is likely to be at least
partly heating related (secondary heaters in bedrooms or
heat lamps in bathrooms etc).
Some of the states had an electricity consumption as
estimated by the model which appeared to be slightly
higher than actual in the late 1980s and early 1990s,
which suggests that perhaps the miscellaneous load may
be increasing slightly over time. However, this parameter
was not adjusted over time to improve the fit in this initial

calibration. Having only 200 kWh per year as miscellaneous


electricity in the end-use model means that nearly 95%
of all electricity consumption has been accounted for by
end use in the EES model. This provides some certainty
regarding the impact of trends in ownership that will impact
on future energy consumption.

9.2 Overview of state total


energy consumption
top-down vs bottom-up
The approach to calibrate the model settings is to run the
end-use model for a period that is as long as possible (in this
case from 1986 to 2006) to check that the end-use model
outputs provide a reasonable representation when compared
to actual top-down energy consumption by state and year.
The model can then be allowed to operate out to 2020 using
trend assumptions.
The total energy consumption by state for each fuel is
considered along with a brief commentary on the results and
any issues in Appendix A. In all cases ABARE data has been
used as the primary top-down source. Published information
from ESAA and the Australian Gas Association (AGA) has
also been used for some comparisons where this is available.
In some cases, state utility data was made available as part
of the review process.
It was found that estimated end-use LPG consumption at
a state level is available and is usually a reasonable fit, but
modelled consumption is generally lower than actual (in
most cases) as there are a range of non-residential end uses
which are not modelled (eg outdoor heating, camping and
recreational uses). There is also some overlap between mains
gas and LPG estimates for those states with low mains
gas penetration (TAS, QLD, NT) as there is probably some
confusion by respondents in the reporting of gas type in ABS
and other surveys.
It is important to note that while EES end-use model outputs
have been provided with this report, further refinements may
be possible if some of the uncertainties in the top-down
energy consumption figures outlined in Appendix A can
be resolved satisfactorily. Where top-down state energy
consumption data is jumping around for no obvious reason,
there seems to be little point in trying to adjust the EES model
outputs to match these changes unless there is a high level
of certainty that the changes are real. The EES model uses
real weather data to June 2004 and as such these factors
have been incorporated into the EES model estimates as far
as possible.
For example, the top-down electricity consumption in
Tasmania is about 5 PJ per year through the 1990s to 2001.
This then increases to over 9 PJ by 2006. This is effectively
an increase from 7,000 kWh per home to over 11,000 kWh
per home in four years. This is more or less the equivalent

of every home in Tasmania installing two additional electric


storage water heaters for every house and tripling current
hot water consumption or adding 10 new refrigerators to
every house. It does seem remarkable and unlikely and there
is nothing in the ownership data to suggest that this can be
explained by the end uses tracked.
Having said that, there are some areas that may require some
fine-tuning in the EES end-use model and these are outlined
in the areas for recommended further research. One issue is
for gas space heating the data on ownership and fuel type
is generally only available at a state level. The model assumes
uniform penetration over the whole state. When modelling
heating and cooling loads, most states have several climate
zones which are apportioned in terms of household numbers
within the state. If there is a situation, for example, where
the heating and cooling requirements are quite different in
regions within a state and the appliance ownership and fuel
availability also varies, then the model outputs may diverge
slightly from reality.
The most obvious case is for gas space heating in
Melbourne. The ownership data assumes that ducted
gas heating is uniform across the state. However, it is
well known that gas ducted heating is only used where
mains gas is available which is highly concentrated in the
Melbourne metropolitan area. Given the heating requirement
for Melbourne will vary from that for regional Victoria, the
EES model would tend to either under or overestimate
gas total heating as the ownership in Melbourne is higher.
For example, gas ducted heating is 75% in Victoria as a
whole but probably 85% in Melbourne and less than 50%
in regional Victoria. This may also be true in NSW where all
gas heating tends to be concentrated in Sydney (around
the gas distribution network) and the ownership is much
lower in regional parts of the state, some of which have a
much higher heating requirement than Sydney. There is no
real solution to this issue given the poor availability of data
on regional ownership of appliances. It may be possible to
use information on the extent of the gas distribution network
to make some intra-state corrections, but these would
becomplex.
One source of possible discrepancy is likely to come
from the fact that when estimating space conditioning
loads the model developed by EES utilised a total of 10
representative climate zones (out of an available 69 across
Australia) to represent actual climate conditions in each
state. This approximation means that in any particular year,
if the prevailing conditions in the representative climate
zone do not closely match the weather in the actual climate
zone, then there is potential for a disparity between the
modelled space conditioning load and the actual load for
that year. While this approximation is likely to lead to some
year-to-year discrepancies between actual and modelled
space conditioning load, the accuracy of future projections
of expected average space conditioning loads should not
becompromised.

SECTION 9
161

Capital cities dominate the energy consumption in most


states and for most states the main capital city climate zone
has been used for modelling purposes, so the potential
discrepancies are mostly small. The main exceptions are
western Sydney (for which an Adelaide climate was used)
and for Tasmania in general (where primarily Canberra,
Melbourne and Orange climate zones were used) and for
Western Australia (where Sydney and Adelaide climate zones
were primarily used).
Having carefully reviewed all of the fuel data for all states,
there are some serious discrepancies regarding some
elements of the data. In particular, electricity consumption
since 2001 appears to be questionable for many states
ABARE data suggests a sharp rise in consumption since
2001 in most states and the end-use estimate in this report
does not support this, in general terms, on the basis of
the modelled data. It is unclear why there are differences
between ABARE data and that published by ESAA and
AGA (in some years these differences are substantial) this
needs to be resolved. Anecdotally, it would appear that data
collection capability and data quality in publications has
decreased somewhat in recent years.
There may be a number of reasons why the accuracy of the
top-down data could be declining. Since 2000, there has
been an opening of the retail electricity market to multiple
players. Many of the larger utilities operate in all states. While
ESAA may compile all data on behalf of its members, there
is no guarantee that data from all retailers is included and is
correctly classified into the relevant end-use sector. There
are always difficult cases where additional activities are being
conducted on a site with a residential meter (for example
farming, diary and small businesses and home offices). These
factors always make the delineation between sectors unclear.
Another area of uncertainty is unoccupied homes. Some 10%
of residential dwellings in Australia are unoccupied. Many of
these are between tenants while some are holiday homes
which are occasionally occupied. For modelling purposes,
these dwellings have been ignored. While few unoccupied
dwellings would be expected to consume any significant
gas, LPG or wood, some may consume some electricity (eg
some standby loads and possibly some refrigeration loads
in holiday homes). There is absolutely no data on this issue
so we were not in a position to take it into account as part of
themodel.
A detailed review of the bottom-up and the top-down data
which is available for comparison is included in Appendix A.

CALIBRATION OF STOCK MODEL


162

Source: Sustainable Pty Ltd

SECTION 10

DATA SOURCES AND REFERENCES

10 Data sources and


references
10.1 Overview of data
sources
Population and Households Household numbers were
obtained from the ABS3236.0 Household and Family
Projections Australia 2001 to 2026 and ABS3101.0
Estimated Resident Population (historical). The future
projections are based on Series III. Because there were some
anomalies in the ABS data some of the household number
estimates between 1986 and 2004 were adjusted by EES,
these adjustments are detailed in Section 5 of this report.
Data before 1990 was based on census data adjusted by
ABS3101 state-levelfactors.
Appliance Ownership and Housing Stock Data National
data sets for ownership and penetration of appliances and
housing stock in Australia were derived primarily from ABS
national energy surveys conducted in the 1980s (ABS8212.0
and ABS8213.0) and more recent survey ABS4602.0 in
1994, 1999, 2002 and 2005. Additional data sources
were the 1976 and 2006 census and a range of third-party
surveys and reports by organisations such as BIS Shrapnel
(2006) and Test Research (1995), as well as ABS4172.
Appliance sales data was obtained from several sources
including BIS Shrapnel and GfK sales data for appliances and
home entertainment equipment (including Informark for air
conditioners).
End-Use Energy Consumption Estimates of in-use
energy consumption by equipment type were obtained from
a wide range of sources including Pacific Power (1996), with
additional end-use information from analysis of retail sales
data and energy labelling data by EES (2006b) which tracks
major appliance sales-weighted trends from 1993 to 2006.
Other data sources included ACA (1990), Bartels (1985 and
1988), Bartels et al (1988), Fiebig and Woodland (1991 and
1993) and SECWA (1991). The Pacific Power study is the
result of appliance monitoring in about 300 NSW households
during 1994 and is the only comprehensive end-use metering
project undertaken in Australia. Data in Bartels and Fiebig
and Woodland is based on a conditional demand analysis of
NSW households where ABS ownership data is matched to
utility billing data (samples sizes are generally 5,000+). Some
electricity data was also available from Queensland and
selected utilities in NSW, Queensland and South Australia
(although this is hard to obtain these days). Other sources
included engineering estimates and measurements published
in Choice magazine. Unfortunately, there is little end-use
metering data available in Australia. More recently, end-use
metering data collected by BRANZ in New Zealand has been
used for selected information (BRANZ have published 10
reports on its HEEP project which covers its 10 years of enduse metering results which is an invaluable source of data).
In addition, EES conducted two intrusive standby surveys in

DATA SOURCES AND REFERENCES


164

2000 and 2005 which provided information on ownership,


modes, usage patterns and power consumption of more
than 11,000 appliances. Store surveys to ascertain standby
characteristics from 2001 to 2007 have also been used
(EnergyConsult, 2007) these cover some 7,000 products.
Building Shell Performance Data on the building shell
stock attributes was derived from the ABS National Energy
Surveys (ABS8212). Details on the building construction
types and levels of insulation in floors and walls were also
derived from this source. The surveys by ABS (ABS4602)
in 1994, 1999, 2002 and 2005 provided data on insulation
levels but not by construction type, so this source was used
to verify insulation trends at state level to 1994. Building
insulation data was also obtained from FARIMA (Fibreglass
and Rockwool Insulation Manufacturers Association now
called ICANZ). National data on stock floor area in the 1980s
was obtained from NIEIR(1997).
Data on new dwelling construction (including shell type
and floor area by state) from 1987 to 2005 was obtained
from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (Building Research
and Outputs Group in Adelaide) and is based on local
government building approvals. Demolition data came from
the Building Control Commission in Victoria. Floor area
additions (extensions) and retrofit insulation data were derived
from BIS Shrapnel data.
Requirements for existing energy efficiency programs for
buildings came from the Building Code of Australia and
relevant state authorities. Building shell performance of
a range of building shells was modelled using a specially
prepared research version of the CSIRO software
AccuRate on a number of standardised generic house
designs. A total of 15 construction types were modelled
under 10 climate zones and four orientations (see Section 7).
To determine a representative set of occupancy profiles that
reflect actual householder behaviour in Australia, reference
was made to an ABS survey entitled How Australians use
their time (Time Use Survey) Cat No. 4153, published in
1992 and1997.
Climate Data DEWHA provided ACDB files for use in
AccuRate for all 69 climate zones in Australia. These were
used for all simulations in the 10 selected climate zones.
Other selected EES meteorological data from the Bureau
of Meteorology was also used. The files were prepared by
Energy Partners (2007) for DEWHA.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Unlike the 1999 baseline
study, greenhouse gas emissions were not estimated as part
of this report. This was done as part of Australias National
Greenhouse Gas Inventory (GWA 2008) using the end-use
energy estimates from this report.

10.2 References
ABS documents are available from www.abs.gov.auAustralian Standards are available from www.saiglobal.com
ABARE 2007, State level energy consumption from 1972 to 2006 with national projections to 2030, available from http://www.
abareconomics.com/
ABS 2000, Population Survey Monitor, private cross tabulations of appliance ownership through 1998 and 1999, ABS, Adelaide
ABS 2006, Building Approvals Data Data sets specially prepared for this study by the Adelaide office of the ABS, purchased by
DEWHA
ABS 2007, Private cross tabs on ABS4602 data including fuel type for cooking, hot water and heating, more detailed breakdown
of heating and cooling equipment type
ABS2015.0, Census of Population and Housing - Selected Social and Housing Characteristics from 2001 Census. ABSCanberra
ABS2409.0 to 2417.0, 1976 Census of Population - Housing Summary Files
ABS3101.0, Australian Demographic Statistics
ABS3222.0, Population Projections Australia 2002-2101, States and Territories, ABS Canberra, 2 September 2003
ABS3236, Household and Family Projections Australia 2001 to 2026
ABS4133.0, Housing Survey Characteristics of Dwellings, 1988
ABS4150, Time Use Survey, Australia, Users Guide, 1997
ABS4153, How Australians Use Their Time, 1997
ABS4172.0, Cultural Trends in Australia, December 1997
ABS4172.0, Cultural Trends in Australia, May 1994
ABS4602.0, Environmental Issues - Peoples Views and Practices, (issues 1994, 1999, 2002, 2005), ABS Canberra
ABS4621.1, Domestic Water and Energy Use, New South Wales, 2007
ABS8210.4, Domestic Heating and Firewood Usage, South Australia, ABS, October 1989
ABS8212.0, 1981, National Energy Survey - Household Appliances, Facilities and Insulation, Australia 1980, published July1981
ABS8212.0, 1984, National Energy Survey - Household Appliances, Facilities and Insulation, Australia 1983, published June1984
ABS8212.0, 1987, National Energy Survey - Household Appliances, Facilities and Insulation, Australia 1985-86, published
June1987
ABS8213.0, 1984, National Energy Survey: Annual Consumption of Reticulated Energy by Households, Australia 1983
ABS8213.0, 1987, National Energy Survey Annual Consumption of Reticulated Energy by Households, Australia
1985-86,Canberra
ABS8218.0, 1988, National Energy: Survey Weekly Reticulated Energy and Appliance Usage Patterns by Season Households,
Australia 1985-86, October 1988
ABS8719.1, 1987, Domestic Water Use in NSW
ACA 1990, Energy Consumption of Refrigerators and Freezers Used Under Normal Conditions of Use, Australian Consumers
Association for NSW Department of Minerals and Energy, Sydney, November 1990
ACA 1995, Appliance Use Survey, prepared fro NAEEEC by Test Research, ACA, February 1995

SECTION 10
165

AGA 2007, Directory of AGA Certified Products, The Australian Gas Association, ISSN 1328 2700 AGA Product Certification
Scheme, July 2007 Edition, available from http://www.aga.asn.au/
AHHA 2008, Australian Home Heating Association Incorporated, certified wood heaters, data available from http://www.
homeheat.com.au/certified.php
AS 1056.4: 1997, Storage water heaters - Daily energy consumption calculations for electric types
AS 1549-1983 (withdrawn), Performance of household electrical appliances - Ranges, built-in cooking tops and wall-mounted
ovens. Appendix C determination of heat loss
AS 2627.1, HB 63-1994 Home insulation in Australia - Recommended insulation levels for all States as per Australian
StandardAS 2627.1
AS 4234: 1994, Solar water heaters - Domestic and heat pump - Calculation of energy consumption
AS 4552, Gas fired water heaters for hot water supply and/or central heating
AS/NZS 2007, Performance of Household Electrical Appliances Dishwashers (Parts 1 and 2)
AS/NZS 2040, Performance of Household Electrical Appliances Clothes Washing Machines (Parts 1 and 2)
AS/NZS 2442, Performance of Household Electrical Appliances Rotary Clothes Dryers (Parts 1 and 2)
AS/NZS 3823, Performance of electrical appliances Air conditioners and heat pumps (Parts 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 2 and 3)
AS/NZS 4012:1999, Domestic solid fuel burning appliance - Method for determination of power output and efficiency.
AS/NZS 4013:1999, Domestic solid fuel burning appliances - Method for determination of flue gas emission.
AS/NZS 4474, Performance of Household Electrical Appliances Refrigerators and Freezers (Parts 1 and 2)
AS/NZS 4692.1, Electric water heaters Part 1: Energy, consumption, performance and general requirements
AS/NZS 4692.2, Electric water heaters Part 2: Minimum Energy Performance Standard (MEPS) requirements and energylabelling
Bartels 1985, Appliance Penetration and Household Energy Consumption, Dr Robert Bartels, University of Sydney, for Energy
Authority of NSW, Report EA85/50
Bartels 1988, Household Energy Consumption, Dr Robert Bartels, University of Sydney, for NSW Department of Energy and
Electricity Commission of NSW, Report DOE88/102
BIS Shrapnel 1994, Study to investigate the alterations and additions sector of the housing industry: Occasional series 8,
Prepared for The Commonwealth Department of Housing and Regional Development, Canberra, August 1994
BIS Shrapnel 2006, The Household Appliances Market in Australia 2006:
Volume 1: Whitegoods
Volume 2: Small Appliances
Volume 3: Climate Control
Volume 4: Hot Water Heater Systems
BIS Shrapnel, Sydney, October 2006. Previous editions back to 1986 also used
BRANZ 2000, Energy Used in Australian Appliances - Analysis of 1993/94 RES Appliance Energy Use Data, BRANZ report
UC0170/2, May 2000, for the AGO
BRANZ 2005, Energy Use in NZ Households Report on the Year 9 Analysis of the Household Energy End-use Project (HEEP),
Report SR141, Building Research Association of New Zealand. See http://www.branz.co.nz/main.php?page=HEEP

DATA SOURCES AND REFERENCES


166

BRANZ 2006, Energy Use in NZ Households Report on the Year 10 Analysis of the Household Energy End-use Project (HEEP),
Report SR155, Building Research Association of New Zealand. See http://www.branz.co.nz/main.php?page=HEEP
Building Code of Australia, Australian Building Codes Board, Canberra, 2007, refer http://www.abcb.gov.au/
Choice 2007, Supply of tested oven heat loss values, personal communication, Norbert Suto, Test Research, August 2007. See
also Choice article on ovens, August 2007
Connection Research 2007, An Australian Consumer Study: The Sustainable Home in 2007, subscription survey purchased by
DEWHA. See www.connectionresearch.com.au
de Dear et al 1997, Developing an Adaptive Model of Thermal Comfort and Preference, Final Report, ASHRAE RP- 884
Delp (2007), A Simplified Model For Predicting Thermal Losses In Duct-Work Systems, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory,
Berkeley, USA. See http://ducts.lbl.gov/ (paper is undated but downloaded in 2007), author WM. Woody Delp
E3 2006, Gas Water Heater Comparative Testing Round-Robin 2005/06, Part of the E3 Gas Workplan 2007 to 2007/08, E3
Report 2006/12, available from www.energyrating.gov.au in the electronic library
EES 1999, Australian Residential Building Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990-2010, Report for AGO, 1999, available from
www.energyrating.gov.au in the electronic library
EES 2000, APEC Symposium on Domestic Refrigeration Appliances, prepared by Energy Efficient Strategies for APEC, APEC
Project EWG 4/99T, Wellington, NZ, March 2000. Background discussion paper minimum energy performance standards,
energy labelling and test procedures. Available from http://www.energyefficient.com.au/APEC.html
EES 2001, Quantification of residential standby power consumption in Australia-2001. Results of standby measurements in
64 homes in Australia - all plug loads were measured. Also contains results of phone ownership survey and 2001 store survey,
prepared by Energy Efficient Strategies, available from www.energyrating.gov.au in the electronic library
EES 2004, Electrical Peak Load Analysis Victoria 1999 2003, prepared by Energy Efficient Strategies for VENCorp,
December2004
EES 2006a, 2005 Intrusive Residential Standby Survey Report, prepared by Energy Efficient Strategies, E3 Report 2006/02,
available from www.energyrating.gov.au in the electronic library
EES 2006b, Greening Whitegoods: A report into the energy efficiency trends of Major Household Appliances in Australia From
1993 to 2005, Prepared by Energy Efficient Strategies, E3 Report 2006/06, available from www.energyrating.gov.au in the
electronic library
EES 2007, Analysis of Test Research refrigerator data for the IEC refrigerator working group (unpublished); this analysis is
supporting the development of a new international test procedure for refrigerators and freezers
Energy Partners et al 2007, Development of Climate Data for Building Related Energy Rating Software, Energy Partners et al 2007
for the AGO
EnergyConsult 2002, Options study - MEPS/labelling Possibilities for Stoves and Cook-tops, report to AGO by EnergyConsult.
Report 2002/03
EnergyConsult 2006, Appliance Standby Power Consumption - Store Survey 2005/2006 - Interim and Final Report, reports to
AGO by EnergyConsult. Reports 2006/07 and 2006/09, available from www.energyrating.gov.au in the electronic library
Enertech 2008, preliminary test data on duct performance, private communication with Paul Orlowski, January 2008
ESAA 2007, Energy Australia, July 2007, Energy Supply Association of Australia, available from www.esaa.com.au
Fiebig and Woodland 1991, Residential Energy Consumption in NSW, Denzil G Fiebig and Alan D. Woodland, University of
Sydney, for NSW Department of Minerals and Energy, Report DME91/110
Fiebig and Woodland 1993, Residential Energy Consumption in NSW (Analysis of the ABS 1989 NSW Household Energy Survey),
Denzil G Fiebig and Alan D. Woodland, University of Sydney, for NSW Office of Energy, 1993

SECTION 10
167

GfK 2007, Personal communication, Smaragda Bris, GfK Marketing, Sydney


GWA 1991, Review of Residential Appliance Labelling, prepared for SECV by George Wilkenfeld and Associates, with Test
Research and Artcraft Research, September 1991
GWA 1993, Benefits and Costs of Implementing Minimum Energy Performance Standards for Household Electrical Appliances
in Australia, Final Report, prepared for SECV by George Wilkenfeld and Associates, with Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, for
ANZMEC, July 1993
GWA 2007a, Energy End Use Projections for the Residential Sector: Notes on Submodels for Swimming Pool and Spa
Equipment, report prepared for the AGO/EES as part of the Baseline Study, prepared by George Wilkenfeld and Associates,
June2007
GWA 2007b, Specifying the Performance of Water for New Houses in the Building Code of Australia, report prepared for the
Australian Building Codes Board, prepared by George Wilkenfeld and Associates (with EES and Thermal Design), December
2007.
GWA 2008, George Wilkenfeld and Associates Pty Ltd, Australias National Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990, 1995, 2000 and
2005: End Use Analysis of Energy Emissions, Internal Report to the Department of Climate Change, 2008
Harrington 2006, Trends in television energy use: where it is and where its going, paper presented to ACEEE Summer Study,
authors Lloyd Harrington, Keith Jones, Bob Harrison, California, August 2006
Infomark 2007, Sales of air conditioners by type and state, subscription service, GfK Marketing, Sydney, Data for 1998 to 2006
ISF 2008, Cost Effectiveness Analysis of WELS: the water efficiency labelling scheme, prepared by the Institute of Sustainable
Futures for the Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts, February 2008 (draft report)
Jump et al 1996, Field Measurements of Efficiency and Duct Retrofit Effectiveness in Residential Forced air Distribution Systems,
paper presented to ACEEE Summer Study, August 1996, Asilomar, California, authors David A. Jump, Iain S. Walker and Mark P.
Modera, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. See http://ducts.lbl.gov/
MCE 2002, Australias Standby Power Strategy 2002-2012 - Money Isnt All Youre Saving. Final report of long-term strategy to
achieve Australias One-Watt Goal 2002 to 2012. Report 2002/12, available from www.energyrating.gov.au in the electroniclibrary
McGregor Tan Research 2002, Electricity Demand Report 2005, McGregor Tan Research for Energy SA, 2002
NIEIR 1997, Estimates of residential household numbers and floor area, for Department of Primary Industries and Energy, by
National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, Melbourne
Pacific Power 1994, The Residential End-Use Study, A detailed study of how and when electricity is consumed by the residential
class customers in New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory, Pacific Power and Sydney Electricity
SECWA 1991, Domestic Energy Use in Western Australia, State Energy Commission of Western Australia, Demand Paper No.1
Syneca 2007, E3 Gas Committee Cost-Benefit Analysis: Proposal to Introduce a Minimum Energy Performance Standard for Gas
Water Heaters, E3 Report 2007/06, available from www.energyrating.gov.au in the electronic library
Thermal Design 2007, Annual Energy Use of Domestic Water Heaters, prepared by Thermal Design for the Department of the
Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts, 31 August 2007. Simulates the performance of a wide range of water heater types in a
range of climate zones
Todd 2007, Regulation of residential woodsmoke in Australia, in Clean Air and Environmental Quality, Volume 41, No. 3, pp 15-18,
(2007). Also personal communication November 2007

DATA SOURCES AND REFERENCES


168

Source: Steve Wray and DEWHA

APPENDICES

170

Appendix A
Comparison of EES
model outputs against
top-down data sources
A.1 Overview
This Appendix provides a brief review of the EES model enduse outputs which have been aggregated and compared
against published top-down data sources such as Australian
Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE),
Energy Supply Association of Australia (ESAA) and Australian
Gas Association (AGA). Our conclusion is that at the state
level much of the EES model data fits reasonably well with
top-down data. However, there are some discrepancies
which are noted below. Clearly in some cases, some of the
top-down data needs to be examined more closely and
obviously anomalies need to be resolved. However, the EES
model outputs are considered to be a reasonable first cut at
estimating end-use energy breakdown by state, year and end
use. As noted previously in the report, some of the data and
assumptions used for modelling may need to be reviewed
in light of improved end-use data collection strategies in
the future. The end-use estimates in this report are by no
means definitive, so comparison of top-down and bottomup estimates need to be interpreted in this light. End-use
modelling in most cases cannot take account of things that
may impact on overall energy consumption from year-to-year
such as economic conditions, drought and weather (although
actual weather has been taken into account for most states
for heating and cooling loads from 1985 to 2004), so these
limitations need to be acknowledged for comparisons such
as the ones in this Appendix.
Calibration of the bottom-up end-use model relies to some
degree on reliable top-down data by fuel to ensure that all
assumptions and parameters are reasonable. However, it
would appear that the modelling analysis for this report has
raised a number of questions about the veracity of some of
the top-down data, particularly in recent years. This is not
intended as a criticism in any way, but it would appear that
the primary energy data, which once appeared to be so
reliable, is now less solid than previously, at least at the sector
level. There are many reasons for this proliferation of energy
retailers, privatisation of utilities, reduced resources for data
collection by state and federal agencies and so forth. This
is really only intended to highlight the issue from an energy
policy perspective.

A.2 Australia
The overall match from the EES model and the top-down
data for electricity is reasonable for most years (Figure 89),
but there is a discrepancy from 2003 to 2006 where the
top-down data sets record rapid growth which is not shown
in the EES model (this is more obvious in some states).

Examination of the state data suggests that the recent


acceleration in national residential electricity consumption is
perhaps questionable. Recent end-use analysis by George
Wilkenfeld and Associates supports this view. In his report,
George Wilkenfeld has concluded that there is a high
probability that ABARE misallocated some of the electricity
use in the commercial sector to the residential sector in the
period 2003-2005 (GWA 2008).
The match between the EES model and the top-down data
for mains gas is reasonable (Figure 90). However, it needs to
be noted that Victoria dominates total gas consumption and
the match for this state is good (except for the years 2000
to 2004, which is discussed in more detail below). Despite
the early years showing the EES model to be slightly higher
than the top-down data for NSW, SA and WA, (which all have
significant gas use) the overall fit is reasonable.
The national match for LPG seems to be reasonable
(Figure91), especially as there are a number of LPG uses that
are not tracked by the EES model (eg recreation, mobile and
outdoorheating).
The two other fuels estimated by EES and ABARE are solar
energy (Figure 92) and wood and wood waste for fuel. EES
only tracks the explicit solar contribution for water heaters
passive solar heating for space heating is not counted. Over
the period the estimates for EES and ABARE are extremely
close. EES estimates are climbing quickly from 2005 as
the state based programs to increase solar penetration
have a noticeable market effect. No information on how
ABARE prepared their estimates is available, but they seem
reasonable if limited to water heating.
The other fuel covered is wood (Figure 93). Only national
estimates are compared (even though state-based data is
available). Wood is of secondary importance as it is usually
classified as a renewable energy source and the emission
are generally considered to be minor. The EES estimates are
somewhat lower than ABAREs although the general trend
is similar. EES has used a number of surveys and studies to
calibrate wood usage within the model. EES does not include
wood for hot water or cooking, which is only likely to account
for a small part of the difference. Again, no information on
how ABARE prepared its estimates is available so it is difficult
to make any assessment of their accuracy. However, it is
widely acknowledged that wood is a difficult fuel to track in
the market place due to high levels of self-collection.
In conclusion, it would seem that the EES end-use model
provides a reasonable breakdown of end-use estimates at a
state and national level, although there are some differences
that may warrant closer examination and some discrepancies
in top-down data sources that require closer examination.
State-based data is examined in more detail below.

APPENDIX A
COMPARISON OF EES MODEL OUTPUTS AGAINST TOP DOWN DATA SOURCES
171

ELECTRICITY (PJ)

Figure 89: Total Residential Electricity Consumption Australia


250

ABARE

200

EES

ESAA

150

100

50

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

YEAR

Figure 90: Total Residential Mains Gas Consumption Australia

MAINS GAS (PJ)

160
140

ABARE
EES

120
100
80
60
40
20

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

YEAR

COMPARISON OF EES MODEL OUTPUTS AGAINST TOP DOWN DATA SOURCES

172

LPG (PJ)

Figure 91: Total Residential LPG Gas Consumption Australia

12

ABARE

10

EES

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

YEAR

SOLAR (PJ)

Figure 92: Total Solar Energy (water heaters) Australia

3.5

ABARE

3.0

EES

2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

0.0

YEAR

APPENDIX A
173

Figure 93: Total Wood Energy (space heating) Australia

WOOD (PJ)

90
80

ABARE
EES

70
60
50
40
30
20
10

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

YEAR

A.3 NSW and ACT


Review of top-down data for NSW and ACT is difficult as
ABARE only publishes combined top-down data for the two
jurisdictions. The difficulty arises because the ACT has quite
different characteristics (hotter summers, colder winters
and higher heating loads than NSW generally) and there
has been a rapid expansion of the natural gas system in the
ACT over the period from the mid 1980s to 2006 (compared
to NSW which has had a slow and steady increase since
its introduction in 1979 to replace the previous town gas
distribution system). So the combined data for these two
jurisdictions, especially for gas, is of little value.

in any case). The discrepancy after 2001 (EES low) is again


obvious.

Some separate NSW and ACT data is available for some


years from early ESAA and AGA publications.

Natural gas for NSW is perhaps the worst fit between EES
modelled data and top-down data. This has been examined
closely and there are a number of possible explanations for
the discrepancies. The difference is about 2 PJ in the mid
1980s to early 1990s (Figure 95). Interestingly, the ABARE
and EES data for ACT and NSW combined appears to track
the year-to-year changes in weather with more or less a
fixed offset, which has disappeared by 1998. This 2 PJ could
possibly be some of the energy consumption of Albury which
was supplied by Victoria until about 2000 (as noted below
no further definitive information on this point could be found
it is not clear whether ABARE has accounted for this in its
supply-side data). Another possible explanation is that the
attributes for gas room heaters assume that the systems are
flued with an overall efficiency of about 70%. In NSW there is
a very high prevalence of unflued gas space heaters (which
are not permitted in many other states), which have a nominal
efficiency of 90%+ (as all combustion energy and products
stay in the room). This increase of effective efficiency could
account for about 1 PJ of the difference and with lower
zoning levels (given that most of these heaters have a very
small output) this could account for most of the discrepancy.
However, further research on this needs to bedone to
ascertain the source of the difference. Note that AGA
estimates for gas consumption for NSW alone lays either side
of the EES estimates in the years 1996 to 1999.

In Figure 96 the ABARE data has been apportioned on a per


household basis, which is reasonable for NSW which dwarfs
ACT (but should be disregarded for estimates for NSW alone

The ESAA data set from 1992 to 1997 has separate ACT
figures, which are higher but of a similar slope to ESS
(Figure97). This suggests that there may be some additional

The EES electricity estimates match the ABARE and ESAA


data fairly closely until the data series diverges in about 2000
(Figure 94). There is no obvious explanation for this from the
end-use data. The EES estimates fall below both series from
about 2001.
For gas consumption, the shape of the data correlates
reasonably (Figure 95), although the sharp rise in 1998 and
fall again in 2002 does not seem to be supported by the EES
end-use estimates and there could be a data collection issue
regarding NSW and ACT. The AGA point in 2002 appears to
be very unlikely (possible double counting of ACT gas).

COMPARISON OF EES MODEL OUTPUTS AGAINST TOP DOWN DATA SOURCES

174

heating load not included, but at 15% of total electricity


consumption, this is significant if accurate. It would not be
possible to make this up through higher zoning of heating
loads. ABARE data and later ESAA data in this figure should
be ignored as this is on a proportional basis with households.

providing a reasonable trend on ACT mains gas consumption


(Figure 98). The AGA data point for 2002 seems to be close
to the modelled value. ABARE data should also be ignored
in this figure (pro rata on households which understates ACT
gasconsumption).

Based on the few years of available separate ACT gas


data available (1996 to 1999 and 2002), the EES model is
Figure 94: Total Residential Electricity Consumption NSW and ACT

ELECTRICITY (PJ)

100

ABARE

90
80
70

EES

ESAA

60
50
40
30
20
10

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

YEAR

Figure 95: Total Residential Mains Gas Consumption NSW and ACT

MAINS GAS (PJ)

30

25

20

ABARE
EES
AGA

15

10

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

YEAR

APPENDIX A
175

Figure 96: Total Residential Electricity Consumption NSW

ELECTRICITY (PJ)

90

ABARE

80
70
60

EES

ESAA

50
40
30
20
10

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

YEAR

Figure 97: Total Residential Electricity Consumption ACT

ELECTRICITY (PJ)

4.5

ABARE

4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

0.0

YEAR

AIR CONDITIONER SUB MODEL


176

EES

ESAA

Figure 98: Total Residential Mains Gas Consumption ACT

MAINS GAS (PJ)

ABARE

5
EES
4
AGA
3

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

YEAR

A.4 Victoria
Victoria has a mature mains gas distribution system in
Melbourne and a high heating load, which is mostly met by
reticulated natural gas.
The EES electricity estimates and the ABARE and ESAA
data sources are reasonably close (Figure 99), although
the increases in consumption from 1996 to 2000 and after
2002 appear to have no basis in terms of actual weather or
appliance ownership/usage, which perhaps suggests that
the data needs to be examined more carefully. ABARE and
ESAA show strong electricity growth after 2002 which is not
supported by EES estimates.
The large mains gas space heating load in Victoria provides
a good opportunity to examine the estimated weather
impacts against variations in top-down data. Up to 1999 the
EES estimates mirror very closely the year-to-year variations
(magnitude and direction) in actual gas energy consumption
(Figure 100). The data diverges somewhat after 2000 but
rejoins in 2005 and 2006 (noting that for these two years
default AccuRate weather files were used, not actual weather
files, which were used up to 2004). Year to year variations in
climate can have a large impact in Victoria.

values estimated by EES. 2000, 2001 and 2003 were all


quite warm years in Melbourne of most concern is the very
high consumption reported in 2003 by ABARE which is of the
opposite trend to the actual weather (note that the last two
years shown (2005 and 2006) are standard AccuRate years
and do not reflect actual weather). Alan Pears in his review of
the draft report noted that there may be an anomaly around
2000 with the supply of Albury from Victoria up to that date.
Some efforts were made to investigate this issue but to no
avail. In any case, the population of Albury is of the order
of 1% of Victoria and the supply arrangements are unlikely
to account for the discrepancy from 2000 which is of the
order of 7 PJ, which is approaching 10% of Victorians total
residential gas demand.
To match this gas consumption for Victoria, the zoning levels
had to be pushed to quite high levels (in comparison with
other states). This may be partly explained by the unevenness
of the gas distribution system, which is concentrated around
Melbourne (see previous discussion) but is also an artefact of
the main gas heating system types in Victoria non-ducted
systems tend to be large wall furnaces which have a high
output and are capable of heating a significant proportion of
the house.

Again, these differences raise some questions over the data


in later years (2000 onwards), given that a near-perfect match
was obtained for most of the period to this date. The weather
data for the three Melbourne climate zones was carefully
checked and the actual weather and temperatures in the
years 1998 to 2004 is reflected in the energy consumption

APPENDIX A
177

Figure 99: Total Residential Electricity Consumption Victoria

ELECTRICITY (PJ)

50

ABARE

45
40

EES

35
30

ESAA

25
20
15
10
5

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

YEAR

Figure 100: Total Residential Mains Gas Consumption Victoria

MAINS GAS (PJ)

100

ABARE

90
80

EES

70
60
50
40
30
20
10

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

YEAR

COMPARISON OF EES MODEL OUTPUTS AGAINST TOP DOWN DATA SOURCES

178

A.5 Queensland

A.6 South Australia

Queensland has little mains gas, a low heating requirement


and a higher air conditioning requirement (although much is
moderated by coastal climates).

South Australia has a mature gas distribution system


and mild winters and the summers can be hot at times.
Evaporative air conditioners dominatethe state.

The EES electricity model tracks closely with the ABARE


data for Queensland (Figure 101). The variation of the ESAA
data raises some questions. Weather has only a small
impact on electricity consumption in most states. Weather
impacts are most obvious in Queensland where there is a
significant cooling load, but even in Queensland, cooling is
a relatively small share of total electricity consumption. So
there is little obvious variation from year-to-year. The last
two years are AccuRate default climate years and do not
reflect the actual weather effects that may have occurred.
There is a sharp climb in the ABARE electricity consumption
from 2002 which does not seem to be related to appliance
ownership, usage or climate.

The EES model data for electricity matches fairly well with
ABARE and ESAA data over the whole period (except
for ABARE after 2002 Figure 103). These electricity
consumption figures (as well as consumption for off peak
tariffs) provided by Monica Oliphant via the Electrical Trust
of South Australia (ETSA) during the review process broadly
confirmed the EES and ESAA estimates.

The Queensland gas distribution system is very limited


and the energy delivered is small. The figures from
ABARE include some town gas in the early 1990s. The
data suggests perhaps some inaccuracy or confusion
in the reporting of mains gas and LPG in Queensland
in ABS surveys (Figure 102) and/or mixed reporting of
town gas and natural gas during the transition period (the
ABARE data reported has included both gas types in the
figures, but note that the totals are very small in terms of
totalenergy).

For gas consumption, Monica Oliphant was able to provide


some data on gas consumption per customer for South
Australia from 1985 to 2005 (via ETSA). This confirms that
the gas energy per household has changed little over the
past 20 years. Figure 104 for gas consumption shows all
three data sets and this raises some questions. ABARE data
shows that gas consumption surged from 2002 to 2006
(an increase of over 3.6 PJ or an increase of about 44%
in four years) while the EES model and ETSA data remain
much more steady. Data provided shows that the number of
residential gas customers in South Australia has been steady
at 57% of households since 1994. This may require some
furtherinvestigation.

Figure 101: Total Residential Electricity Consumption Queensland

ELECTRICITY (PJ)

50

ABARE

45
40

EES

35
30

ESAA

25
20
15
10
5

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

YEAR

APPENDIX A
179

Figure 102: Total Residential Mains Gas Consumption Queensland

MAINS GAS (PJ)

3.0

2.5

ABARE
EES

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

0.0

YEAR

Figure 103: Total Residential Electricity Consumption South Australia


ELECTRICITY (PJ)

20

ABARE

18
16

EES

14
12

ESAA

10
8
6
4
2

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

YEAR

COMPARISON OF EES MODEL OUTPUTS AGAINST TOP DOWN DATA SOURCES

180

MAINS GAS (PJ)

Figure 104: Total Residential Mains Gas Consumption South Australia

14.0

ABARE

12.0

EES

10.0

ETSA

8.0
6.0
4.0

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

2.0
0.0

YEAR

A.7 Western Australia

A.8 Tasmania

Western Australia has a mature gas distribution system in


Perth. There are a number of climate zones but these have
low population apart from Perth. The climate is mild in winter
and summers can be hot. Note that no WA climate zones
were used in this study so the model outputs are unlikely to
reflect year-to-year weather variations.

Historically there has been very little gas use in Tasmania.


Town gas ceased in 1997 but there is now a move to
reticulate new homes with natural gas. The climate is
cold with little air conditioning load. Electric water heaters
aredominant in homes.

The EES model data matches fairly well with ABARE and
ESAA electricity data over the whole period (Figure 105).
Electricity consumption before 1998 is slightly higher from
the EES model. ABARE and ESAA data rise rapidly in 2005
and2006.
The EES model data for gas matches fairly well with ABARE
data over the whole period except for 2004 to 2006 where
there is a divergence of the data (EES is higher) (Figure 106).
Note that no WA climate zones were used in this report so
the AccuRate weather years may not reflect real weather
trends in WA in these years. Gas consumption before 1990 is
slightly high from the EES model.

Figure 107 raises some serious questions about the topdown data for Tasmania. It is unclear why there are such
large discrepancies between ABARE and ESAA in all reported
years. The spectacular increase in ABARE data after 2001
seems unlikely (see previous discussion) as it is essentially a
doubling of residential electricity consumption in a period of
about four years. Utility data from Tasmania would obviously
be helpful to confirm actual trends.
There is virtually no mains gas in Tasmania and there
is obviously some confusion in surveys about whether
households use mains gas or LPG, which obviously affects
the EES estimates.

APPENDIX A
181

Figure 105: Total Residential Electricity Consumption Western Australia

ELECTRICITY (PJ)

20

ABARE

18
16

EES

14
12

ESAA

10
8
6
4
2

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

YEAR

MAINS GAS (PJ)

Figure 106: Total Residential Mains Gas Consumption Western Australia


12

ABARE

10

EES

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

YEAR

COMPARISON OF EES MODEL OUTPUTS AGAINST TOP DOWN DATA SOURCES

182

Figure 107: Total Residential Electricity Consumption Tasmania

ELECTRICITY (PJ)

10

ABARE

9
8

EES

7
6

ESAA

5
4
3
2
1

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

YEAR

A.9 Northern Territory


The small population of Northern Territory is concentrated in
Darwin and Alice Springs. Air conditioning loads dominate
electricity consumption and there is little gas distribution and
virtually no heating load (a majority of houses have no main
heating). Solar water heaters are common.
For the Northern Territory it was necessary to pull back the air
conditioning zoning to quite low levels. NT is unusual as there
are some 2.7 air conditioners per home. Even though we
have included an algorithm in the stock model that assumes
that the square root of saturation is applied to the ownership
and hence energy consumption, this still seems to result in
a value that was high for NT (Figure 108). The postulation
is that living areas are cooled by a main unit during the day
and bedrooms are cooled at night with secondary units,
which is at odds with the occupancy and zoning assumption
used in the model. This is an area that may require further
investigation and fine tuning, although the energy implications
are small (compared to the current estimates). There is little
variation in weather from year-to-year in the NT, hence the
relatively smooth energy consumption trend (air conditioners
account for about half the total electricity consumption). The
source of the discrepancy between ESAA and ABARE is
unclear. While Darwin has been used as a climate zone in this
report, this is probably not all that representative of half the
population which have a hotter and drier climate.
ABARE records no mains gas in NT but ABS surveys state
that quite a few households use mains gas. It is believed that
mains gas is available in some areas (eg Darwin).

APPENDIX A
183

ELECTRICITY (PJ)

Figure 108: Total Residential Electricity Consumption Northern Territory

2.5

ABARE

2.0

EES

1.5

ESAA

1.0

0.5

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

0.0

YEAR

COMPARISON OF EES MODEL OUTPUTS AGAINST TOP DOWN DATA SOURCES

184

Appendix B Air
conditioner sub-model

to be complete and this is made more complex by the


fact that identical products can be installed in commercial
and residential applications making these markets hard
toquantify.

B.1 Overview

The most important attribute data used to develop modelling


inputs is:

This Appendix sets out detailed attribute data for air


conditioners that has been used to develop detailed
attributes for these products. For each of the main attributes
of interest, range of data sources has been used to construct
a sales model for refrigerators and freezers from 1966 to
2020. Data is estimated for each of the four non-ducted
types (window wall and split systems, cooling only and
reverse cycle) as well as the two ducted types (cooling only
and reverse cycle).

Energy efficiency ratio (EER for cooling) and coefficient of


performance (COP for heating) over time.
Trends in capacity.
It is important to note that common attributes are
assumed for all states (noting that ownership levels do vary
substantially for various air conditioner types at a state level).
Ownership data at a state level is provided in Appendices E
to H.

There are a range of sources for trends in air conditioner


attributes. The main ones are registration data, which has
been available since the late 1980s, and more recently, GfK
sales data, which provides actual sales and price by model
for more that 80% of the total non-ducted market (this has
only been available since 2003). Other data sources provide
data on capacity and sales (eg Informark 2006, which covers
from late 1990s to 2006) and there is other data on share by
type, brand share and complimentary ownership data also
available (BIS Shrapnel 2006).

B.2 K
 ey air conditioner
attributes
Key attributes are shown in the following figures and are used
to derive average new air conditioner attributes by year used
as model inputs in Appendices E to H. Abbreviations used
are RC for reverse-cycle, CO for cooling only, R for room
(window wall and split).

It has to be said that the air conditioner market is very


complex with some 200 brands now present in the
market. None of the data sources cited above appears

Figure 109: Sales Share by Air Conditioner Type (Non-Ducted)

SHARE

100%
90%

W/W CO
W/W RC

80%
70%
60%

Split CO
Split RC

50%
40%
30%
20%
10%

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

0%

YEAR

APPENDIX B
AIR CONDITIONER SUB MODEL

185

Figure 110: Trends in Average Energy Effiency Ratio (Cooling) by Air Conditioner Type (Non-Ducted)

COOLING EER (W/W)

3.8

Split RCC

registrations

Smoothed based on

3.6
3.4

Split CO
W/W RCC

3.2
W/W CO

MEPS 2006/2007

3.0
2.8
MEPS 2004

2.6
2.4

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

2.2

YEAR

Figure 111: Trends in Average Coefficient of Performance (Heating) by Air Conditioner Type (Non-Ducted)

HEATING COP (W/W)

3.8
3.6

Smoothed based on registrations

3.4

Implied effect of MEPS


2006/2007

3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

2.2

YEAR

AIR CONDITIONER SUB MODEL


186

Split RCH

W/W RCH

Figure 112: Trends in Capacity by Air Conditioner Type (Non-Ducted)

CAPACITY (KW)

6.5
6.0

Split RCH
Split RCC
W/W RCC

5.5
W/W RCH
5.0
4.5

W/W CO
Split CO

4.0
3.5
3.0

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

2.5

YEAR

Figure 113: Trends in Average Energy Effiency Ratio and Coefficient of Performance by Air Conditioner Type (Ducted)

EER/COP (W/W)

3.5
3.0

Duct RCH

Duct CO

2.5
Duct RCC
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

0.0

YEAR

APPENDIX B
187

Figure 114 Trends in Capacity by Air Conditioner Type (Ducted)

CAPACITY (KW)

12

10

Duct CO
Duct RCC

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

YEAR

AIR CONDITIONER SUB MODEL


188

Duct RCH

Appendix C
Refrigerator and
freezer sub-model

Trends in energy efficiency (defined in terms of kWh/


adjusted litre of volume).

C.1 Overview
This Appendix sets out detailed attribute data for
refrigerators and freezers that has been used to develop
detailed attributes for these products. For each of the main
attributes of interest, a range of data sources has been used
to construct a sales model for refrigerators and freezers from
1966 to 2020. Data is estimated for each of the 10 groups
(types) of refrigerators and freezers identified
in AS/NZS4474.1.
The main data source was GfK which provides sales-weighted
data from 1993 to 2006 inclusive. Other data sources used
were energy labelling registrations (back to 1986) and selected
Choice reports and data through the 1970s, especially in the
lead-up to the introduction of energy labelling in 1986, where
a number of developmental tests were undertaken. Data was
also adjusted on the basis of various interviews with suppliers,
especially Email (now Electrolux) which dominated the market
in the 1970s and1980s.
The most important attribute data used to develop modelling
inputs is:
Sales share for each of the 10 groups over time.

It is important to note that common attributes are assumed


for all states. Ongoing analysis of GfK sales data over a long
period shows that there is negligible difference in salesweighted attributes at a state level (noting of course that
ownership levels do vary for refrigerators to a lesser extent
and separate freezers to a greater extent, at a state level).
Ownership data at a state level is provided in Appendices E
to H.
A brief description of the 10 refrigerator and freezer groups is
presented in Table 60.

C.2 K
 ey refrigerator
attributes that impact on
energy consumption
Key attributes are shown in the following figures and are used
to derive average new refrigerator and freezer attributes by
year and used as model inputs in Appendices E to H. For
example, the overall average energy consumption value for
new refrigerators by year is based on the sales-weighted
energy efficiency trend by group for that year, multiplied by
adjusted volume for that year (to get energy consumption at
a group level) then weighted by the sales share of each group
in each year.

Trends in fresh food and freezer volumes.


Table 60: Group definitions under AS/NZS4474.1 2007
Appliance group

Group description

Other Criteria and Notes

All refrigerator

Automatic defrost

Refrigerator with
ice-maker

Most common configuration for small bar refrigerators, usually small


(<150L)

Refrigerator with
short-term freezer

Becoming rare, but some new products appearing in 2006, usually


small size

Refrigerator with
long-term freezer

Automatic defrost fresh food, manual defrost freezer, used to be


common, now rare

5T

Top-mounted
frost-free
refrigerator-freezer

Both compartments are automatic defrost, freezer at top, majority


of sales

5B

Bottom-mounted
frost-free refrigerator-freezer

Both compartments are automatic defrost, freezer at bottom,


growing sales, dominate in NZ

5S

Side side frost-free


refrigerator-freezer

Both compartments are automatic defrost, growing sales

6C

Chest freezer

Includes all configurations and frost types

6U

Manual defrost
vertical (upright) freezer

Door at front, manual defrost

Frost-free vertical freezer

Door at front, automatic defrost

APPENDIX C
REFRIGERATOR AND FREEZER SUB MODEL

189

Figure 115: Share of Sales by Refrigerator Type

SHARE OF SALES

70%
Forecast

Actual

Group 1
Group 2

60%

50%

Group 3
Group 4
Group 5T

40%

Group 5B
Group 5S

30%

20%

10%

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

0%

YEAR

SHARE OF SALES

Figure 116: Share of Sales by (Separate) Freezer Type

Actual

60%

Forecast

Group 6C
50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

REFRIGERATOR AND FREEZER SUB MODEL

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

YEAR

190

Group 6U

Group 7

FRESH FOOD VOLUME (L)

Figure 117: Trends in Fresh Food Volume by Group


450

Group 1

400

Group 2

350
300

Group 3
Group 4
Group 5T

250
200

Group 5B
Group 5S

150
100
50

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

YEAR

Figure 118: Trends in Freezer Volume by Group (Refrigerators, Groups 1 to 5)

FREEZER VOLUME (L)

300

Group 2
Group 3

250

200

Group 4
Group 5T
Group 5S

150

Group 5B

100

50

0
2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

YEAR

APPENDIX C
191

FREEZER VOLUME (L)

Figure 119: Trends in Freezer Volume by Group (Separate Freezers, Groups 6 and 7)
400

Group 6U

350

Group 6C

300

Group 7

250
200
150
100
50
0
2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

YEAR

KWH/LITRE

Figure 120: Trends in Energy Efficiency by Group (Refrigerators, Groups 1 to 5)

Actual
c a

Forecast
o c

4.5

Group 1

4.0

Group 2

3.5

Group 3

3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

YEAR

REFRIGERATOR AND FREEZER SUB MODEL


192

Group 4
Group 5T
Group 5B
Group 5S

KWH/LITRE

Figure 121: Trends in Energy Efficiency by Group (Separate Freezers, Groups 6 and 7)

Actual

3.0

Group 6U

2.5

Group 6C

2.0

Group 7

Forecast

1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

YEAR

APPENDIX C
193

194

Appendix D Solar
water heater
performance
attributes
D.1 Overview
This Appendix sets out detailed attribute data for solar water
heaters which have been used to determine in-use energy
consumption as part of this study under a range of hot water
usage scenarios and climates.
The following water heater types were explicitly modelled
under AS4234 and climate zones one to four inclusive for hot
water loads of 0 MJ/day, 20 MJ/day, 40 MJ/day and 60 MJ/
day (under AS4234 conditions):
Solar water heater standard flat plate in-tank electric
auxiliary (300 litre, 3.9 m2) (assumed continuous boost, top
third of tank heated).
Solar water heater high efficiency flat plate in-tank
electric auxiliary (300 litre, 3.9 m2) (assumed continuous
boost, top third of tank heated).
Solar water heater standard flat plate instantaneous in
line gas auxiliary (300 litre, 3.9 m2) (no in-tank heating).
Solar water heater high efficiency flat plate in-tank gas
auxiliary (170 litre, 3.9 m2).
Solar water heater evacuated tube collector in-tank
electric auxiliary (300 litre, 3.9 m2 and 2.5 m2 variants)
(modelled for interest, not included as a water heater type
for this study).
Heat pump system (R134a) (300 litre, 750W).
Details of the climate zones, assumed daily hot water profiles,
seasonal usage profiles, cold water/air temperatures and
solar irradiation are set out in the commissioned report
(Thermal Design 2007).
The most important attribute for modelling is the socalled solar contribution. For this project the value of solar
contribution for solar systems (except for heat pumps) was
determined as the ratio of total energy input (including boost
and auxiliary energy) under normal climatic conditions when
compared to the total energy input when modelled under
zero solar energy inputs (ie with the water heater operating as
a conventional fuel water heater). The value of one minus the
ratio of these two values is the solar contribution.
The reason why this approach has been used is that it
provides an accurate estimate of the performance of the
water heater and hence the actual boost energy consumption
in use under a range of loads and climatic factors. An
accurate estimation of the actual boost energy (by fuel type)
is the most important modelling variable required for this
report. In general terms it was found that the calculated solar
contribution for conventional flat-plate solar water heaters

is strongly linked to the hot water usage as expected, the


solar contribution within a particular climate zone increases
as the hot water load decreases. However, this is not a linear
effect and depends on the performance of the water heater,
the load profile and the climate. This approach also allows the
solar energy contribution to be explicitly calculated (although
it is acknowledged that the performance under zero solar
conditions will not be optimised for these systems).
The basic approach used to model solar water heater
performance is as follows:
Determine an effective heat loss for the no load condition
by climate zone. The default value is for Zone 3 (given in
the attributes tables in Appendices E to H) and the value
for other zones are determined by zone ratio (88.9% for
Zone 1, 93.1% for Zone 2, 108.25% for Zone 4). A trend in
the heat loss over time (under the default Zone 3) is given
the attributes (Appendices E to H) for each year for new
products entering the stock.
Determine the actual heat loss for the estimated average
hot water load in each state using the functions for heat loss
developed below based on the stock-weighted average.
Determine a function of solar contribution by zone and
hot water load for the selected system type based on the
stock-weighted average.
For standard flat-plate collectors, it is assumed the stock
mix of high efficiency systems will increase from 0% in
1985 to 60% in 2020.
Determine the boost energy requirement for each year
and climate zone by combining actual heat loss, energy
delivered and solar contribution for each climate zone and
state (which can be one or more climate zones).
This approach differs from many other modelling approaches
which attempt to quantify the savings of a solar water heater
when compared to a specified conventional water heater
(such as an electric storage water heater) (eg calculation
of Renewable Energy Certificates by Office of Renewable
Energy Regulator).
For heat pump systems, the commissioned report showed
the modelled COP for each climate zone for hot water
deliveries of 20 MJ/day, 40 MJ/day and 60 MJ/day (under
AS4234 conditions). Determination of COP at no load is not
technically possible (under this condition some heat losses
will occur and some energy will be required to maintain water
temperature). For modelling purposes a quadratic equation
was fitted to the Zone 3 data to give a function of load versus
overall system COP as follows:

COP = 4.1 x 10-4 x L2 + 0.045 x L + C


Where: L is the daily average hot water load in MJ

APPENDIX D
SOLAR HOT WATER HEATER PERFORMANCE ATTRIBUTES

195

For the gas in-line boost solar system, any residual boost
energy was supplied by an average stock performance
instantaneous gas water heater.

C is a constant factor used to adjust by climate zone


asfollows:
C is 1.963 for climate Zone 1
C is 1.877 for climate Zone 2

D.2 K
 ey solar water heater
attributes

C is 1.734 for climate Zone 3


C is 1.598 for climate Zone 4

Key attributes are shown in the following figures and are used
to derive average new solar water attributes by year used as
model inputs.

These estimates were based on an average new COP of


2.47 from 2000 to 2020 for 20MJ/day of hot water delivery
for Zone 3 (Appendix E). Note that this equation will not
be valid for loads less than about 10 MJ/day (it will tend
to overestimate COP as heat losses dominate the energy
requirement at very low loads) (refer to Figure 128).
The overall new average COP values (for 20 MJ/day hot
water delivery and Climate Zone 3) over time are shown
in the attributes (Appendices E to H). For each new stock
value in each year the overall curve shape is assumed to
remain constant but the zero load offset is re-calculated to
fit the implied values for no load COP. Modelled system data
is shown in the next section. The attributes file assumes a
constant new COP of 2.47 from about 2000. It should be
noted that the stock average value for COP is fairly close to
the average new value as the stock prior to 2000 is very small
and from 2000 the stock is increasing rapidly and so new
values dominate the stock average.
For the gas in-tank solar system, the system behaviour was
unusual as tank losses appeared to increase with increasing
load under a no solar input scenario. This was verified with
Graham Morrison during the preparation of the report.

HEAT LOSS (MJ/Y)

Figure 122: Heat Loss Standard Solar Electric Boost Tank by Zone (no solar input)

Zone 2
Zone 1
Zone 3
Zone 4

2500

y = -0.0037x + 0.5913x - 35.758x + 1949


3
2
y = 0.0016x + 0.0988x - 34.75x + 2042
3
2
y = -0.0033x + 0.5513x - 39.425x + 2193
3
2
y = -0.0022x + 0.46x - 39.533x + 2374

Zone 2
Zone 3
2000

1500

1000

500

0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

HOT WATER DELIVERY (MJ/D)

SOLAR HOT WATER HEATER PERFORMANCE ATTRIBUTES


196

Zone 1

Zone 4

Figure 123: Solar Contribution for Electric/Standard Efficiency Flat Plate Collector by Zone
SOLAR CONTRIBUTION (%)

100

Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3

80

Zone 4

60

40

Zone 2
Zone 1
Zone 3
Zone 4

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

20

y = 3.0044x - 3.2595x + 0.1709x + 1


3
2
y = 0.5708x - 1.1786x + 0.0017x + 1
3
2
y = 0.9622x - 0.6867x - 0.6876x + 0.9763
3
2
y = -0.9375x + 1.4979x - 1.2333x + 0.8174

0.5

0.6

0
0.7

HOT WATER DELIVERY ([MJ/D]/100)

Figure 124: Solar Contribution for Electric/High Efficiency Flat Plate Collector by Zone

SOLAR CONTRIBUTION (%)

100

Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3

80

Zone 4

60

40

Zone 2
Zone 1
Zone 3
Zone 4

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

20

y = 0.4751x - 1.387x + 0.1494x + 1


3
2
y = -0.6662x - 0.0288x - 0.0629x + 1
3
2
y = 1.7421x - 1.9838x - 0.0489x + 0.9952
3
2
y = -0.3213x + 0.8016x - 1.0899x + 0.94

0.5

0.6

0
0.7

HOT WATER DELIVERY ([MJ/D]/100)

APPENDIX D
197

HEAT LOSS (MJ/Y)

Figure 125: Heat Loss for High Efficiency Solar Collector In Tank Gas by Zone (no solar input)

Zone 2
Zone 1
Zone 3
Zone 4

12000

y = -0.0143x + 1.4975x + 24.55x + 4654


3
2
y = 0.0017x + 0.425x + 37.333x + 4910
3
2
y = 0.0042x + 0.1962x + 43.883x + 5320
3
2
y = 0.0047x + 0.1075x + 46.308x + 5813

Zone 1
Zone 2

10000

Zone 3
Zone 4

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

HOT WATER DELIVERY (MJ/D)

Figure 126: Solar Contribution for High Efficiency Solar Collector In Tank Gas by Zone

SOLAR CONTRIBUTION (%)

100

Zone 2
Zone 3
80

60

40

20
Zone 2
Zone 1
Zone 3
Zone 4

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

y = 4.0334x - 4.3484x + 0.4856x + 0.9714


3
2
y = 0.4466x - 1.3807x + 0.1319x + 0.9719
3
2
y = 1.3869x - 1.5227x - 0.2641x + 0.9115
3
2
y = -0.0114x - 0.092x - 0.4661x + 0.7167

0.5

0.6

0.7

HOT WATER DELIVERY ([MJ/D]/100)

SOLAR HOT WATER HEATER PERFORMANCE ATTRIBUTES


198

Zone 1

Zone 4

Figure 127: Solar Contribution for Standard Efficiency Collector In Line Gas Boost by Zone

SOLAR CONTRIBUTION (%)

100

Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3

80

Zone 4

60

40

Zone 2
Zone 1
Zone 3
Zone 4

0.1

0.2

0.3

20

y = 0.3752x - 1.0827x + 0.0539x + 1


3
2
y = -0.2957x - 0.2172x - 0.0183x + 1
3
2
y = 0.2348x - 0.4229x - 0.3785x + 1
3
2
y = -2.4281x + 3.0401x - 1.7038x + 1

0.4

0.5

0.6

0
0.7

HOT WATER DELIVERY ([MJ/D]/100)

Note: The solar contribution for this system is higher at low loads as there is no need to maintain the stored water at an acceptable delivery
temperature: the gas system can boost during delivery.

Figure 128: Modelled COP for Heat Pump System by Zone


COEFFICIENT OF PERFORMANCE

3.5

3.0

Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3

2.5
Zone 4
2.0

Values from the quadratic below 10MJ/d are unlikely to be accurate as the
line should pass through the origin, but it will be accurate for values
>10MJ/d.

Z3 Quad

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
0

20

40

60

HOT WATER DELIVERY (MJ/D)

APPENDIX D
199

ENERGY USE IN THE AUSTRALIAN RESIDENTIAL SECTOR


200

List of Tables
Table 1: Grouped Climate Zones

12

Table 2: Total Energy Consumption in petajoules by Fuel by Year Australia (EES)

23

Table 3: Estimated Total Occupied Residential Floor Areas (million m2)

28

Table 4: Total Residential Energy Consumption in petajoules by State from 1990 to 2020

31

Table 5: Electrical Appliance Energy Consumption in petajoules by State from 1990 to 2020

33

Table 6: Water Heating Energy Consumption in petajoules by State from 1990 to 2020

35

Table 7: Cooking Energy Consumption in petajoules by State from 1990 to 2020

36

Table 8: Space Heating Energy Consumption in petajoules by State from 1990 to 2020

38

Table 9: Space Cooling Energy Consumption in petajoules by State from 1990 to 2020

39

Table 10: Estimated Number of Occupied Residential Households (000s)

72

Table 11: Overview of Energy Programs Included in Baseline Energy Estimates

76

Table 12: Key Usage Parameters by Product

78

Table 13: Assumed Share of Water Heater Type by State in New Homes from 2006 to 2020

87

Table 14: Assumed Average Annual Temperatures by Capital City for Hot Water Modelling (All Years)

88

Table 15: Assumed AS4234 Climate Zones by State

88

Table 16: Overview of Estimated Cooking Data Various Sources

89

Table 17: Climatic Adjustment Factors by State for Refrigerators And Freezers (all years)

93

Table 18: Construction Formats Modelled

102

Table 19: Construction Type / Insulation Combinations

104

Table 20: Housing Stock Numbers (000s)* by State and Construction Types (ABS 1986))

104

Table 21: Penetration of Wall Construction Types (%) by State Condensed (ABS 1986)

104

Table 22: Housing Stock Numbers With Roof Insulation (000s) by Construction (ABS 1986)

105

Table 23: Penetration of Roof Insulation (%) by Wall Construction Type (ABS 1986)

105

Table 24: Housing Stock Numbers With Wall Insulation (000s) by Construction (ABS 1986)

108

Table 25: Penetration of Wall insulation (%) by Wall Construction Type (ABS 1986)

108

Table 26: Housing Stock Numbers (000s) by Dwelling Type (ABS 1988)

108

Table 27: Housing Stock Penetrations (%) by Dwelling Type (ABS 1988)

108

Table 28: Assumed Penetration of Wall Type (%) Low Rise Flats (1986)

109

Table 29: Assumed Penetration of Wall Type (%) Detached Dwellings (1986)

110

Table 30: Implied Penetration of Insulation By Dwelling Type and Wall Construction (1986)

110

Table 31: Estimates of Penetration of Concrete Floors in Detached Dwellings in 1986

112

Table 32: Estimates of Penetration of Concrete Floors in Flats in 1986

112

Table 33: Estimates of Penetration by Floor Type in All Dwelling Types in 1986

112

Table 34: Stock of Dwellings Insulation Characteristics 2005 (ABS)

112

Table 35: Performance Standards (star ratings) and Penetrations (%) by Jurisdiction

114

Table 36: Estimated Number of New Dwellings Entering the Stock from 2006 to 2020 (000s)

114

Table 37: Projected Penetration (%) of House Types By State from 2001 to 2005

117

TABLES AND FIGURES


201

Table 38: Performance Standards (star ratings) and Penetrations (%) by Jurisdiction

117

Table 39: Assumed Rates of Ceiling Insulation Retrofit by Jurisdiction

117

Table 40: Percentage of Unoccupied Dwellings by Jurisdiction (ABS)

119

Table 41: Apparent Realisation Rate of Residential Building Approvals from 1987 to 2005

119

Table 42: Average Floor Area of New Housing Detached from 1992 to 2005

121

Table 43: Average Floor Area of New Housing Semi-Detached from 1992 to 2005

122

Table 44: Average Floor Area (m ) of New Housing Flats from 1992 to 2005

122

Table 45: Number of Renovations Involving Additions of Floor Area by State (000s) (BIS Shrapnel)

124

Table 46: Average Floor Area of Dwelling Additions by State (m ) (BIS Shrapnel)

124

Table 47: Number and Penetration of Households by AccuRate Climate Zone 2006

126

Table 48: Penetration of Households by AccuRate Climate Zone By State 2006

130

Table 49: Grouped Zones Details Heating

133

Table 50: Grouped Zones Details Cooling

133

Table 51: Concordance of Grouped Climate Zones and AccuRate Climate Zones

134

Table 52: Penetration of Grouped Heating Zones by State (2006)

136

Table 53: Penetration of Grouped Cooling Zones by State (2006)

137

Table 54: Applied Weightings to Occupancy Profiles by Day of Week

146

Table 55: Penetration of Profile Types Weighted Annual Value

146

Table 56: Zoning Factors by Space Conditioning Technologies and State

148

Table 57: Default AccuRate Thermostat Settings for Selected Climates

150

Table 58: Thermostat Settings Adopted for this Study (Set using AccuBatch)

151

Table 59: Suburbia Factors for Detached Dwellings

157

Table 60: Group definitions under AS/NZS4474.1 2007

189

The following Tables are included in Appendices E to H (available on the CD)


Table 61: Appliance Attributes for Refrigerators

213

Table 62: Appliance Attributes for Freezers 

213

Table 63: Appliance Attributes for Front Loading Clothes Washers 

214

Table 64: Appliance Attributes for Top Loading Clothes Washers 

215

Table 65: Appliance Attributes for Clothes Dryers 

216

Table 66: Appliance Attributes for Dishwashers 

217

Table 67: Appliance Attributes for Reverse Cycle Room Air Conditioners - Cooling 

218

Table 68: Appliance Attributes for Cooling Only Room Air Conditioners 

219

Table 69: Appliance Attributes for All Ducted Air Conditioners - Cooling 

220

Table 70: Appliance Attributes for Evaporative Air Conditioners 

221

Table 71: Appliance Attributes for Electric Resistive Space Heaters 

222

Table 72: Appliance Attributes for Reverse Cycle Room Air Conditioners - Heating 

223

Table 73: Appliance Attributes for Reverse Cycle Ducted Air Conditioners - Heating 

224

ENERGY USE IN THE AUSTRALIAN RESIDENTIAL SECTOR


202

Table 74: Appliance Attributes for Gas Space Heaters 

225

Table 75: Appliance Attributes for Gas Space Heaters 

226

Table 76: Appliance Attributes Closed Combustion Wood Heaters 

227

Table 77: Appliance Attributes Open Combustion Wood Heaters 

227

Table 78: Appliance Attributes for Electric Storage Water Heaters 

228

Table 79: Appliance Attributes for Gas Storage Water Heaters 

228

Table 80: Appliance Attributes for Gas Instantaneous Water Heaters 

229

Table 81: Appliance Attributes for Electric Boosted Solar Water Heaters 

230

Table 82: Appliance Attributes for Heap Pump Solar Water Heaters 

230

Table 83: Appliance Attributes for Solar Water Heaters with In Tank Gas Boosting 

231

Table 84: Appliance Attributes for Electric Cooktops 

231

Table 85: Appliance Attributes for Gas Cooktops 

232

Table 86: Appliance Attributes for Electric Ovens 

232

Table 87: Appliance Attributes for Gas Ovens 

233

Table 88: Appliance Attributes for Microwave Ovens 

234

Table 89: Appliance Attributes for Televisions (composite sales weighted) 

235

Table 90: Appliance Attributes for Video Cassette Recorders (VCR) 

236

Table 91: Appliance Attributes for DVDs 

237

Table 92: Appliance Attributes for Set Top Boxes (STB) - Free to Air Digital 

238

Table 93: Appliance Attributes for Set Top Boxes - Subscription (Pay TV) 

239

Table 94: Appliance Attributes for Miscellaneous Home Entertainment Equipment 

240

Table 95: Appliance Attributes for Games Consoles 

241

Table 96: Appliance Attributes for Desktop Computers 

242

Table 97: Appliance Attributes for Computer Monitors 

253

Table 98: Appliance Attributes for Laptop Computers 

244

Table 99: Appliance Attributes for Miscellaneous Information Technology Equipment - Switched 

245

Table 100: Appliance Attributes for Miscellaneous Information Technology Equipment - Unswitched 

246

Table 101: Appliance Attributes for Miscellaneous Home Entertainment Equipment 

247

Table 102: Appliance Attributes for Residential Lighting - product efficiency 

248

Table 103: Appliance Attributes for Residential Lighting - installation configuration 

249

Table 104: Miscellaneous Electricity Consumption 

250

Table 105: Pool Electricity Consumption 

251

Table 106: Pool Mains Gas Consumption 

252

Table 107: Spa Electricity Consumption 

253

Table 108: Spa Mains Gas Consumption 

254

Table 109: Refrigerators - Ownership (stock/households) 

255

Table 110: Separate Freezers - Ownership (stock/households) 

258

Table 111: Air Conditioners (all types) - Ownership (stock/households) 

261

TABLES AND FIGURES


203

Table 112: Share of Households by AC type Australia 

264

Table 113: Evaporative Cooling Share 

266

Table 114: Central Reverse Cycle Share 

268

Table 115: Central Cooling Only Share 

270

Table 116: Non-ducted Reverse Cycle Share 

272

Table 117: Non-ducted Cooling Only Share 

274

Table 118: Clothes Washers - Penetration (households with 1 or more of appliance) 

276

Table 119: Drum/Front Load Share 

277

Table 120: Dishwashers - Penetration 

279

Table 121: Clothes Dryers - Penetration

281

Table 122: Main Form of Space Heating

283

Table 123: Electric Main Space Heating 

285

Table 124: Gas Main Space Heating (LPG+Mains) 

287

Table 125: Wood Main Space Heating 

289

Table 126: Other Main Space Heating 

291

Table 127: No Main Space Heating 

293

Table 128: Mains Gas Share of All Gas (1-LPG share) 

295

Table 129: Ducted Share of All Gas 

297

Table 130: Wood Heater - Share of Closed Combustion 

299

Table 131: Main Form of Water Heating Australia 

301

Table 132: Electric Water Heating 

303

Table 133: Gas Water Heating 

305

Table 134: Solar Water Heating 

307

Table 135: Other Water Heating (primarily wood) 

309

Table 136: No Water Heater 

311

Table 137: Mains Gas Share of Gas (balance is LPG) 

312

Table 138: Mains Gas Penetration - Water Heating

313

Table 139: Main Form of Cooking - Australia

314

Table 140: Electric Cooktop

316

Table 141: Gas Cooktop

318

Table 142: No Cooktop/Other

320

Table 143: Electric Oven

321

Table 144: Gas Oven

323

Table 145: Other Oven

325

Table 146: No Oven

326

Table 147: Mains Gas Share of Gas Cooktops

327

Table 148: Mains Gas Share of Gas - Ovens

328

Table 149: Mains Gas Penetration - Cooktop

329

ENERGY USE IN THE AUSTRALIAN RESIDENTIAL SECTOR


204

Table 150: Mains Gas Penetration - Oven

330

Table 151: Microwave - Penetration

331

Table 152: Games Consoles - Penetration

332

Table 153: Other Home Entertainment - Ownership (stock/households)

333

Table 154: Television - Penetration

334

Table 155: TV - Ownership (stock/households)

335

Table 156: VCR - Ownership (stock/households)

336

Table 157: STBF - Ownership (stock/households)

338

Table 158: STBS+N87 - Ownership (stock/households)

339

Table 159: DVD - Ownership (stock/households)

340

Table 160: Personal Computers - Ownership (stock/households)

341

Table 161: Other Standby Ownership

343

Table 162: Share of Lighting Technologies - living areas

344

Table 163: Share of Lighting Technologies - non-living areas

345

Table 164: Total Electric Appliances and Equipment

347

Table 165: Total Electricity for Water Heating (includes mains gas and LPG heater aux)

348

Table 166: Total Electric Cooking - Electric Cooking plus Standby Losses (all fuels)

349

Table 167: Total Electricity Consumption - Space Heating

350

Table 168: Total Electricity Consumption - Air Conditioning

351

Table 169: Total Residential Electricity Consumption

352

Table 170: Total Mains Gas Energy Consumption - Appliances and Equipment (Pool and Spa Heating)

353

Table 171: Total Mains Gas for Water Heating

354

Table 172: Total Mains Gas Cooking

355

Table 173: Total Mains Gas Energy Consumption - Space Heating

356

Table 174: Total Residential Mains Gas Consumption

357

Table 175: Total LPG for Water Heating

358

Table 176: Total LPG Cooking

359

Table 177: Total LPG Energy Consumption - Space Heating

360

Table 178: Total Residential LPG Energy Consumption

361

Table 179: Total Wood Energy Consumption - Space Heating

362

Table 180: Total Residential Wood Energy Consumption

363

Table 181: Stock Model: Electric Equipment Summary

364

Table 182: Stock Model: Water Heater Summary

365

Table 183: Stock Model: Cooking Summary

366

Table 184: Stock Model: Space Heating Summary

367

Table 185: Stock Model: Space Cooling Summary

368

Table 186: Total Residential Energy Consumption

369

TABLES AND FIGURES


205

List of Figures
Figure 1: Schematic of End-Use Model

Figure 2: Retirement Function Stock Model

Figure 3: Stock Remaining Stock Model

Figure 4: Graphical Depiction of the EES Stock Model

Figure 5: Trends in Residential Total Energy Consumption Australia (EES)

20

Figure 6: Residential Energy Consumption by Fuel Type Australia 1990 and 2020 (EES)

21

Figure 7: Trends in Total Energy Consumption by Fuel Australia

22

Figure 8: Breakdown of Energy for Major End Uses 1990 Australia

24

Figure 9: Breakdown of Energy for Major End Uses 2007 Australia

24

Figure 10: Breakdown of Energy for Major End Uses 2020 Australia

25

Figure 11: Trends in Total Energy Consumption by End Use Australia

25

Figure 12: Trends in Total Energy Consumption by Major End Use Australia

26

Figure 13: Trends in National Residential Floor Area and Number of Occupied Residential Households

26

Figure 14: Trends in Residential Energy Use per Household in Australia from 1990 to 2020

29

Figure 15: Trends in Residential Energy Use per Person in Australia from 1990 to 2020

29

Figure 16: Trends in Fuel Energy Consumption per Household

30

Figure 17: Trends in Major End-Use Energy per Household Australia

32

Figure 18: Trends in Total Residential Energy Consumption by State from 1990 to 2020

32

Figure 19: Electrical Appliance Energy Consumption Trends by State from 1990 to 2020

34

Figure 20: Water Heating Energy Consumption Trends by State from 1990 to 2020

34

Figure 21: Cooking Energy Consumption Trends by State from 1990 to 2020

37

Figure 22: Space Heating Energy Consumption Trends by State from 1990 to 2020

37

Figure 23: Space Cooling Energy Consumption Trends by State from 1990 to 2020

41

Figure 24: Trends in Electrical Appliance Energy by Type Australia

41

Figure 25: Trends in Cooking Energy by Type Australia

43

Figure 26: Trends in Water Heater Energy by Type Australia

43

Figure 27: Trends in Space Heating Energy by Fuel Type Australia

44

Figure 28: Space Heating Share by State 2007

44

Figure 29: Trends in Space Cooling Energy by Type Australia

45

Figure 30: Space Cooling Energy by Type State 2008

45

Figure 31: Trends in Building Shell Efficiency in Australia from 1986 to 2020

46

Figure 32: Trends in Major End-Use Energy Consumption

48

Figure 33: Energy Consumption (PJ) Space Cooling in Australia from 1986 to 2020

49

Figure 34: Energy Consumption (PJ) Space Heating in Australia from 1986 to 2020

50

Figure 35: Energy Consumption (PJ) Water Heaters by Fuel in Australia from 1986 to 2020

51

Figure 36: Energy Consumption (PJ) Cook-tops in Australia from 1986 to 2020

52

ENERGY USE IN THE AUSTRALIAN RESIDENTIAL SECTOR


206

Figure 37: Energy Consumption (PJ) Ovens in Australia from 1986 to 2020

52

Figure 38: Energy Consumption (PJ) Clothes Dryers in Australia from 1986 to 2020

53

Figure 39: Energy Consumption (PJ) Clothes Washers (CW) in Australia from 1986 to 2020

54

Figure 40: Energy Consumption (PJ) Dishwashers in Australia from 1986 to 2020

55

Figure 41: Energy Consumption (PJ) Refrigerators/Freezers in Australia from 1986 to 2020

56

Figure 42: Energy Consumption (PJ) Microwaves in Australia from 1986 to 2020

57

Figure 43: Energy Consumption (PJ) Computers in Australia from 1986 to 2020

58

Figure 44: Energy Consumption (PJ) Miscellaneous IT in Australia from 1986 to 2020

59

Figure 45: Energy Consumption (PJ) Monitors in Australia from 1986 to 2020

59

Figure 46: Energy Consumption (PJ) DVD and VCR in Australia from 1986 to 2020

60

Figure 47: Energy Consumption (PJ) Home Entertainment in Australia from 1986 to 2020

60

Figure 48: Energy Consumption (PJ) Games Consoles in Australia from 1986 to 2020

61

Figure 49: Energy Consumption (PJ) Set-top Boxes in Australia from 1986 to 2020

62

Figure 50: Energy Consumption (PJ) Televisions in Australia from 1986 to 2020

64

Figure 52: Energy Consumption (PJ) Lighting in Australia from 1986 to 2020

65

Figure 53: Energy Consumption (PJ) Other Electricity in Australia from 1986 to 2020

65

Figure 54: Energy Consumption (PJ) Other Standby in Australia from 1986 to 2020

66

Figure 55: Energy Consumption (PJ) Swimming Pools in Australia from 1986 to 2020

66

Figure 56: Energy Consumption (PJ) Water Beds in Australia from 1986 to 2020

67

Figure 57: Ownership Trends for Air Conditioners in Australia

82

Figure 58: Share of Air Conditioner Stock by Type in Australia

83

Figure 59: Ownership Trends for Space Heaters in Australia

85

Figure 60: Ownership Trends for Water Heaters in Australia

86

Figure 61: Ownership Trends for Cooking Products in Australia

90

Figure 62: Ownership Trends for Major Appliances in Australia

90

Figure 63: Impact of Ambient Temperature of Energy Consumption of 17 different Refrigerator/Freezers

93

Figure 64: Historical and Projected Share of New Televisions by Technology Type

95

Figure 65: Average Price Paid by Television Technology Australia

95

Figure 66: Average Sales Weighted Size by Television Technology Australia

96

Figure 67: Projected Power Consumption of New Televisions by Technology Australia

96

Figure 68: Schematic of Housing Stock Model

100

Figure 69: Penetration of Wall Construction Types (%) by State Condensed (ABS 1986)

106

Figure 70: Penetration of Roof Insulation (%) by Wall Construction Type (ABS 1986)

106

Figure 71: Penetration of Wall Insulation (%) by Wall Construction Type (ABS 1986)

109

Figure 72: Comparison of Household, Building Approval and Population Estimates ABS

113

Figure 73: Trends in New Housing Types in Australia from 1988 to 2005

115

Figure 74: Regression Analysis New Detached Housing Floor Areas 1986 to 2005

121

Figure 75: Average Floor area (m2) of New Housing by Type Australia 1986 to 2020

123

TABLES AND FIGURES


207

Figure 76: Relative Heating Load by Climate type (Based Upon 625 Sample Dwellings used for the Development
of the BCA Thermal Performance Measures)

128

Figure 77: Relative Cooling Load by Climate Type (Based Upon 625 Sample Dwellings used for the Development
of the BCA Thermal Performance Measures)

129

Figure 78: Penetration of Grouped Heating Zones By State (2006)

136

Figure 79: Penetration of Grouped Cooling Zones by State (2006)

137

Figure 80: Schematic of Space Conditioning Load Model

140

Figure 81: Residential Occupancy Profile Australia 1992 and 1997 (averaged)

144

Figure 82 Residential Occupancy Profiles Australia

144

Figure 83: Weekday Occupancy Profile Composite Versus ABS

146

Figure 84: Saturday Occupancy Profile Composite Versus ABS

147

Figure 85: Sunday Occupancy Profile Composite Versus ABS

147

Figure 86: Cooling Loads Associated with Various Thermostat Settings Among Detached Dwellings in Adelaide

152

Figure 87: Potential Space Conditioning Loads SA (Fixed Stock Profile)

153

Figure 88: Potential Space Cooling Loads Tasmania (Fixed Stock Profile)

154

Figure 89: Total Residential Electricity Consumption Australia

172

Figure 90: Total Residential Mains Gas Consumption Australia

172

Figure 91: Total Residential LPG Gas Consumption Australia

173

Figure 92: Total Solar Energy (water heaters) Australia

173

Figure 93: Total Wood Energy (space heating) Australia

174

Figure 94: Total Residential Electricity Consumption NSW and ACT

175

Figure 95: Total Residential Mains Gas Consumption NSW and ACT

175

Figure 96: Total Residential Electricity Consumption NSW

176

Figure 97: Total Residential Electricity Consumption ACT

176

Figure 98: Total Residential Mains Gas Consumption ACT

177

Figure 99: Total Residential Electricity Consumption Victoria

178

Figure 100: Total Residential Mains Gas Consumption Victoria

178

Figure 101: Total Residential Electricity Consumption Queensland

179

Figure 102: Total Residential Mains Gas Consumption Queensland

180

Figure 103: Total Residential Electricity Consumption South Australia

180

Figure 104: Total Residential Mains Gas Consumption South Australia

181

Figure 105: Total Residential Electricity Consumption Western Australia

182

Figure 106: Total Residential Mains Gas Consumption Western Australia

182

Figure 107: Total Residential Electricity Consumption Tasmania

183

Figure 108: Total Residential Electricity Consumption Northern Territory

184

Figure 109: Sales Share by Air Conditioner Type (Non-Ducted)

185

Figure 110: Trends in Average Energy Effiency Ratio (Cooling) by Air Conditioner Type (Non-Ducted)

186

Figure 111: Trends in Average Coefficient of Performance (Heating) by Air Conditioner Type (Non-Ducted)

186

Figure 112: Trends in Capacity by Air Conditioner Type (Non-Ducted)

187

ENERGY USE IN THE AUSTRALIAN RESIDENTIAL SECTOR


208

Figure 113: Trends in Average Energy Effiency Ratio and Coefficient of Performance by Air Conditioner Type (Ducted)

187

Figure 114 Trends in Capacity by Air Conditioner Type (Ducted)

188

Figure 115: Share of Sales by Refrigerator Type

190

Figure 116: Share of Sales by (Separate) Freezer Type

190

Figure 117: Trends in Fresh Food Volume by Group

191

Figure 118: Trends in Freezer Volume by Group (Refrigerators, Groups 1 to 5)

191

Figure 119: Trends in Freezer Volume by Group (Separate Freezers, Groups 6 and 7)

192

Figure 120: Trends in Energy Efficiency by Group (Refrigerators, Groups 1 to 5)

192

Figure 121: Trends in Energy Efficiency by Group (Separate Freezers, Groups 6 and 7)

193

Figure 122: Heat Loss Standard Solar Electric Boost Tank by Zone (no solar input)

196

Figure 123: Solar Contribution for Electric/Standard Efficiency Flat Plate Collector by Zone

197

Figure 124: Solar Contribution for Electric/High Efficiency Flat Plate Collector by Zone

197

Figure 125: Heat Loss for High Efficiency Solar Collector In Tank Gas by Zone (no solar input)

198

Figure 126: Solar Contribution for High Efficiency Solar Collector In Tank Gas by Zone

198

Figure 127: Solar Contribution for Standard Efficiency Collector In Line Gas Boost by Zone

199

Figure 128: Modelled COP for Heat Pump System by Zone

199

The following Figures are included in Appendices E to H (available on the CD)


Figure 129: Refrigerator - Penetration

256

Figure 130: Refrigerator - Saturation

256

Figure 131: Refrigerator - Ownership

257

Figure 132: Freezer Penetration

259

Figure 133: Freezer - Saturation

259

Figure 134: Freezers - Ownership

260

Figure 135: Air Conditioners - Penetration

262

Figure 136: Air Conditioner - Saturation

262

Figure 137: Air Conditioners - Ownership 

263

Figure 138: Air Conditioner Share by Type 

265

Figure 139: Evaporative Cooling Share

267

Figure 140: Central Reverse Cycle Share

269

Figure 141: Central Cooling Only Share

271

Figure 142: Non-ducted Reverse Cycle Share

273

Figure 143: Non-ducted Cooling Only Share

275

Figure 144: Air Conditioner Stock (All Types)

275

Figure 145: Clothes Washers Penetration

278

Figure 146: Clothes Washers Share of Drum Type

278

Figure 147: Dishwashers Penetration

280

Figure 148: Clothes Dryers Penetration

282

TABLES AND FIGURES


209

Figure 149: Main Space Heating Share by Fuel Type Australia

284

Figure 150: Electric Main Space Heating

286

Figure 151: Gas Main Space Heating (LPG+Mains)

288

Figure 152: Wood Main Space Heating

290

Figure 153: Other Main Space Heating

292

Figure 154: No Main Space Heating

294

Figure 155: Mains Gas Share of All Gas

296

Figure 156: Ducted Share of All Gas

398

Figure 157: Wood Heater Share of Closed Combustion

300

Figure 158: Water Heating Share by Fuel Type

302

Figure 159: Share of Electric Water Heating

302

Figure 160: Share of Gas Water Heating

306

Figure 161: Share of Solar Water Heating

308

Figure 162: Share of Other Water Heating (primarily wood)

310

Figure 163: Main F orm of Cooking Australia

315

Figure 164: Share of Electric Cooktop

317

Figure 165: Share of Gas Cooktop

319

Figure 166: Share of Electric Oven

322

Figure 167: Share of Gas Oven

324

Figure 168: TVs and VCRs Penetration and Ownership

337

Figure 169: Other Standby Ownership

344

Figure 170: Swimming Pool Pumps

346

ENERGY USE IN THE AUSTRALIAN RESIDENTIAL SECTOR


210

NOTES
211

212

Table 61: Appliance Attributes for Refrigerators


Year

Fresh food
litres

Freezer
litres

Energy
kWh/yr

Table 62: Appliance Attributes for Freezers


Year

Fresh food
litres

Freezer
litres

Energy
kWh/yr

1966

209

36

884

1966

213

691

1971

207

40

886

1971

209

681

1976

206

45

888

1976

206

653

1981

208

51

888

1981

202

616

1986

226

64

853

1986

204

612

1991

246

80

731

1991

213

610

1992

248

83

726

1992

216

615

1993

250

85

721

1993

218

619

1994

248

85

703

1994

211

606

1995

252

88

696

1995

220

587

1996

255

91

708

1996

226

603

1997

253

92

675

1997

221

602

1998

252

92

645

1998

224

626

1999

248

97

596

1999

226

601

2000

254

93

588

2000

226

554

2001

263

100

604

2001

232

558

2002

260

100

598

2002

232

553

2003

262

101

583

2003

237

556

2004

257

96

525

2004

216

521

2005

259

100

450

2005

198

377

2006

262

104

438

2006

194

366

2007

262

104

437

2007

191

360

2008

262

105

436

2008

188

355

2009

263

106

434

2009

185

350

2010

263

107

433

2010

182

345

2011

263

107

431

2011

180

340

2012

264

108

429

2012

178

336

2013

264

108

427

2013

176

333

2014

264

108

425

2014

176

331

2015

264

108

422

2015

175

329

2016

263

108

419

2016

176

328

2017

263

108

417

2017

177

327

2018

263

107

414

2018

178

327

2019

262

107

411

2019

179

327

2020

261

106

408

2020

180

327

APPENDIX E
MODEL INPUTS ATTRIBUTES

213

Table 63: Appliance Attributes for Front Loading Clothes Washers


Warm
El.
Heat
kWh

Cold
El.
Cold
kWh

Warm
HW L

Cold
HW L

Spin
Index

Standby
Watts

0.178

0.236

0.124

30.5

16.0

0.99

0.0

75.0%

0.178

0.232

0.122

30.0

15.7

0.98

0.0

65

75.0%

0.178

0.228

0.119

29.5

15.4

0.97

0.0

236

65

75.0%

0.178

0.224

0.117

29.0

15.1

0.96

0.0

387

232

65

75.0%

0.178

0.220

0.114

28.4

14.8

0.95

0.0

105

381

229

65

75.0%

0.178

0.217

0.112

27.9

14.5

0.94

0.8

104

380

228

65

75.0%

0.178

0.216

0.112

27.8

14.4

0.94

0.9

22.0

97

358

215

65

74.8%

0.178

0.203

0.104

25.8

13.2

0.91

1.2

4.37

21.0

92

275

165

65

74.5%

0.178

0.147

0.070

18.4

8.8

0.86

1.6

1995

4.24

20.0

85

304

182

65

74.3%

0.178

0.169

0.083

20.9

10.3

0.88

1.9

1996

5.14

17.8

91

307

184

65

74.0%

0.178

0.172

0.085

21.1

10.4

0.80

2.2

1997

5.14

17.8

91

307

184

65

73.8%

0.178

0.174

0.086

21.0

10.4

0.80

2.5

1998

5.07

15.9

81

244

146

65

73.5%

0.178

0.130

0.059

15.5

7.0

0.73

2.9

1999

5.17

13.3

69

244

146

65

73.3%

0.178

0.131

0.059

15.4

7.0

0.75

3.2

2000

5.57

12.0

67

226

135

65

73.0%

0.178

0.119

0.052

13.8

6.1

0.74

3.5

2001

5.78

12.3

71

227

136

65

68.4%

0.178

0.140

0.061

13.0

5.7

0.72

3.3

2002

6.14

11.8

73

235

141

65

63.8%

0.178

0.168

0.075

12.8

5.7

0.71

3.2

2003

6.34

11.6

74

236

142

65

59.2%

0.178

0.192

0.086

11.9

5.4

0.71

3.0

2004

6.41

11.1

71

246

148

65

54.6%

0.178

0.225

0.103

11.7

5.3

0.69

2.9

2005

6.68

10.6

71

261

157

65

50.0%

0.178

0.268

0.125

11.5

5.4

0.68

2.7

2006

6.72

10.5

70

255

153

65

48.0%

0.178

0.270

0.125

10.7

5.0

0.67

2.4

2007

6.77

10.3

70

249

149

65

46.0%

0.178

0.272

0.124

9.9

4.6

0.66

2.0

2008

6.81

10.1

69

242

145

65

44.0%

0.178

0.272

0.123

9.2

4.2

0.65

1.7

2009

6.86

10.0

68

236

142

65

42.0%

0.178

0.272

0.122

8.5

3.8

0.64

1.3

2010

6.90

9.8

68

230

138

65

40.0%

0.178

0.271

0.120

7.8

3.4

0.63

1.0

2011

6.91

9.7

67

228

137

65

40.0%

0.178

0.268

0.118

7.7

3.4

0.63

1.0

2012

6.92

9.6

67

226

136

65

40.0%

0.178

0.265

0.116

7.6

3.3

0.62

1.0

2013

6.93

9.6

66

224

134

65

40.0%

0.178

0.261

0.114

7.5

3.3

0.62

0.9

2014

6.94

9.5

66

222

133

65

40.0%

0.178

0.258

0.112

7.4

3.2

0.61

0.9

2015

6.95

9.4

65

220

132

65

40.0%

0.178

0.255

0.110

7.3

3.2

0.61

0.9

2016

6.96

9.3

65

218

131

65

40.0%

0.178

0.252

0.108

7.2

3.1

0.60

0.9

2017

6.97

9.2

64

216

130

65

40.0%

0.178

0.248

0.106

7.1

3.0

0.60

0.9

2018

6.98

9.2

64

214

128

65

40.0%

0.178

0.245

0.104

7.0

3.0

0.59

0.8

2019

6.99

9.1

63

212

127

65

40.0%

0.178

0.242

0.102

6.9

2.9

0.59

0.8

2020

7.00

9.0

63

210

126

65

40.0%

0.178

0.238

0.100

6.8

2.9

0.58

0.8

Year

Size
kg

Water
eff. litres/
kg

Warm
CEC

Cold
CEC

Mech
kWh/y

Water
litres

1966

4.20

28.0

1971

4.25

1976

118

410

246

65

75.0%

27.5

117

404

243

65

4.30

27.0

116

398

239

1981

4.35

26.5

115

393

1986

4.40

26.0

114

1991

4.48

23.5

1992

4.50

23.0

1993

4.40

1994

Note: Spin data used for clothes dryer module

MODEL INPUTS ATTRIBUTES


214

% Dual El. Mech


Connect kWh

Table 64: Appliance Attributes for Top Loading Clothes Washers


Year

Size
kg

Water
eff. litres/
kg

Water
litres

Warm
CEC

Cold
CEC

Mech
kWh/y

Warm
Cold
% Dual El. Mech El. Heat El. Cold
Connect kWh
kWh
kWh

Warm
HW L

Cold
HW L

Spin
Index

Standby
Watts

1966

4.80

29.0

139

650

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

68.9

0.0

0.99

0.0

1971

4.85

28.8

139

639

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

67.7

0.0

0.98

0.0

1976

4.90

28.5

140

629

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

66.4

0.0

0.97

0.0

1981

4.95

28.3

140

618

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

65.2

0.0

0.96

0.0

1986

5.00

28.0

140

608

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

63.9

0.0

0.95

0.0

1991

5.08

27.6

140

597

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

62.7

0.0

0.89

2.5

1992

5.10

27.5

140

595

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

62.4

0.0

0.88

3.0

1993

5.23

27.3

143

588

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

61.6

0.0

0.85

3.3

1994

5.37

27.2

146

576

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

60.2

0.0

0.85

3.6

1995

5.44

26.9

146

581

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

60.8

0.0

0.85

3.9

1996

5.75

23.8

137

570

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

59.5

0.0

0.82

4.3

1997

5.75

23.8

137

570

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

59.5

0.0

0.82

4.6

1998

5.89

23.5

139

575

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

60.0

0.0

0.80

4.9

1999

6.18

24.0

148

619

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

65.3

0.0

0.79

5.2

2000

6.22

22.0

137

666

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

70.9

0.0

0.76

5.5

2001

6.26

22.7

142

630

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

66.6

0.0

0.76

4.9

2002

6.25

22.8

143

593

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

62.2

0.0

0.76

2.4

2003

6.28

21.9

138

576

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

60.3

0.0

0.74

1.1

2004

6.34

19.3

123

570

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

59.5

0.0

0.73

1.0

2005

6.39

18.4

118

590

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

61.8

0.0

0.75

1.0

2006

6.41

17.9

115

578

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

60.4

0.0

0.74

0.9

2007

6.43

17.5

112

566

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

59.0

0.0

0.73

0.8

2008

6.46

17.0

110

554

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

57.6

0.0

0.72

0.7

2009

6.48

16.5

107

542

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

56.2

0.0

0.72

0.6

2010

6.50

16.0

104

530

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

54.8

0.0

0.71

0.5

2011

6.52

15.9

104

527

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

54.4

0.0

0.70

0.5

2012

6.54

15.8

103

524

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

54.1

0.0

0.70

0.4

2013

6.56

15.7

103

521

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

53.7

0.0

0.69

0.4

2014

6.58

15.6

103

518

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

53.4

0.0

0.69

0.4

2015

6.60

15.5

102

515

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

53.0

0.0

0.68

0.4

2016

6.62

15.4

102

512

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

52.7

0.0

0.67

0.3

2017

6.64

15.3

102

509

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

52.3

0.0

0.67

0.3

2018

6.66

15.2

101

506

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

52.0

0.0

0.66

0.3

2019

6.68

15.1

101

503

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

51.6

0.0

0.66

0.2

2020

6.70

15.0

101

500

65

65

100.0%

0.178

0.000

0.000

51.2

0.0

0.65

0.2

Note: Spin data used for clothes dryer module

APPENDIX E
215

Table 65: Appliance Attributes for Clothes Dryers


Year

Capacity
kg

Efficiency
KWh/kg

Share
Autosence

Timer
Penalty

Auto
Penalty

Adjusted
Efficiency

Standby
Watts

1966

4.40

1.35

0.0%

1.10

1.00

1.49

0.0

1971

4.40

1.34

0.0%

1.10

1.00

1.47

0.0

1976

4.40

1.33

0.0%

1.10

1.00

1.46

0.0

1981

4.40

1.32

0.0%

1.10

1.00

1.45

0.0

1986

4.40

1.28

0.0%

1.10

1.00

1.41

0.0

1991

4.44

1.12

5.0%

1.10

1.00

1.23

0.2

1992

4.45

1.11

8.0%

1.10

1.00

1.21

0.2

1993

4.42

1.10

10.0%

1.10

1.00

1.20

0.3

1994

4.39

1.10

11.6%

1.10

1.00

1.20

0.3

1995

4.40

1.08

12.6%

1.10

1.00

1.18

0.4

1996

4.37

1.08

18.5%

1.10

1.00

1.17

0.5

1997

4.33

1.08

20.4%

1.10

1.00

1.17

0.5

1998

4.37

1.08

22.5%

1.10

1.00

1.16

0.6

1999

4.44

1.07

26.7%

1.10

1.00

1.15

0.6

2000

4.37

1.08

21.0%

1.10

1.00

1.16

0.7

2001

4.49

1.10

30.3%

1.10

1.00

1.17

0.7

2002

4.49

1.12

30.7%

1.10

1.00

1.20

0.6

2003

4.48

1.12

30.9%

1.10

1.00

1.20

0.6

2004

4.48

1.12

34.9%

1.10

1.00

1.19

0.5

2005

4.39

1.12

43.9%

1.10

1.00

1.19

0.5

2006

4.37

1.12

45.1%

1.10

1.00

1.18

0.5

2007

4.36

1.11

46.3%

1.10

1.00

1.17

0.4

2008

4.34

1.11

47.6%

1.10

1.00

1.17

0.4

2009

4.32

1.10

48.8%

1.10

1.00

1.16

0.3

2010

4.30

1.10

50.0%

1.10

1.00

1.16

0.3

2011

4.30

1.10

52.0%

1.10

1.00

1.15

0.3

2012

4.30

1.10

54.0%

1.10

1.00

1.15

0.3

2013

4.30

1.10

56.0%

1.10

1.00

1.15

0.3

2014

4.30

1.10

58.0%

1.10

1.00

1.15

0.3

2015

4.30

1.10

60.0%

1.10

1.00

1.14

0.3

2016

4.30

1.10

62.0%

1.10

1.00

1.14

0.2

2017

4.30

1.10

64.0%

1.10

1.00

1.14

0.2

2018

4.30

1.10

66.0%

1.10

1.00

1.14

0.2

2019

4.30

1.10

68.0%

1.10

1.00

1.14

0.2

2020

4.30

1.10

70.0%

1.10

1.00

1.13

0.2

MODEL INPUTS ATTRIBUTES


216

Table 66: Appliance Attributes for Dishwashers

Year

Water
litres/
prog

CEC
kWh/y

Supp
CEC

Plumbing Connections
% cold

% dual

% hot

1966

80.0

700

1209

75.0%

5.0%

20.0%

18.0

1971

60.8

670

1057

75.0%

5.0%

20.0%

1976

47.3

640

941

75.0%

5.0%

1981

39.6

610

862

75.0%

1986

35.8

580

808

1991

31.9

522

1992

30.0

1993

28.8

1994

External Dual %
HW litres ext HW

Temp
rise K

Plug
kWh

Standby
Watts

50%

30.0

1.569

0.0

13.7

50%

30.0

1.571

0.0

20.0%

10.6

50%

30.0

1.547

0.0

5.0%

20.0%

8.9

50%

30.0

1.498

0.0

75.0%

5.0%

20.0%

8.0

50%

30.0

1.433

0.0

725

75.0%

5.0%

20.0%

7.2

50%

30.0

1.290

0.7

510

701

75.0%

5.0%

20.0%

6.8

50%

30.0

1.266

0.8

494

677

74.4%

5.0%

20.6%

6.7

50%

30.0

1.225

0.9

29.1

485

670

73.8%

5.0%

21.3%

6.9

50%

30.0

1.194

1.0

1995

25.9

477

641

73.1%

5.0%

21.9%

6.3

50%

30.0

1.184

1.1

1996

23.8

445

596

72.5%

5.0%

22.5%

5.9

50%

30.0

1.105

1.3

1997

22.4

414

557

71.9%

5.0%

23.1%

5.8

50%

30.0

1.023

1.4

1998

21.6

405

543

71.3%

5.0%

23.8%

5.7

50%

30.0

1.001

1.5

1999

21.3

382

517

70.6%

5.0%

24.4%

5.7

50%

30.0

0.937

1.6

2000

21.0

380

513

70.0%

5.0%

25.0%

5.8

50%

30.0

0.930

1.7

2001

20.3

371

500

71.0%

4.2%

24.8%

5.4

50%

30.0

0.913

1.6

2002

20.0

367

494

72.0%

3.4%

24.6%

5.3

50%

30.0

0.908

1.6

2003

19.9

356

483

73.0%

2.6%

24.4%

5.1

50%

30.0

0.883

1.5

2004

18.5

336

454

74.0%

1.8%

24.2%

4.6

50%

30.0

0.837

1.5

2005

17.6

317

430

75.0%

1.0%

24.0%

4.3

50%

30.0

0.793

1.4

2006

17.1

314

423

75.0%

1.0%

24.0%

4.2

50%

30.0

0.785

1.3

2007

16.6

310

416

75.0%

1.0%

24.0%

4.1

50%

30.0

0.778

1.2

2008

16.1

307

409

75.0%

1.0%

24.0%

3.9

50%

30.0

0.771

1.0

2009

15.5

303

402

75.0%

1.0%

24.0%

3.8

50%

30.0

0.764

0.9

2010

15.0

300

395

75.0%

1.0%

24.0%

3.7

50%

30.0

0.757

0.8

2011

14.9

295

390

75.0%

1.0%

24.0%

3.7

50%

30.0

0.743

0.8

2012

14.8

290

384

75.0%

1.0%

24.0%

3.6

50%

30.0

0.730

0.7

2013

14.7

285

379

75.0%

1.0%

24.0%

3.6

50%

30.0

0.717

0.7

2014

14.6

280

373

75.0%

1.0%

24.0%

3.6

50%

30.0

0.703

0.7

2015

14.5

275

367

75.0%

1.0%

24.0%

3.6

50%

30.0

0.690

0.7

2016

14.4

270

362

75.0%

1.0%

24.0%

3.5

50%

30.0

0.677

0.6

2017

14.3

265

356

75.0%

1.0%

24.0%

3.5

50%

30.0

0.664

0.6

2018

14.2

260

350

75.0%

1.0%

24.0%

3.5

50%

30.0

0.650

0.6

2019

14.1

255

345

75.0%

1.0%

24.0%

3.5

50%

30.0

0.637

0.5

2020

14.0

250

339

75.0%

1.0%

24.0%

3.4

50%

30.0

0.624

0.5

APPENDIX E
217

Table 67: Appliance Attributes for Reverse Cycle Room Air Conditioners Cooling
Year

Capacity
kW

Efficiency
cop cool

Average
Watts

Standby
Watts

1966

4.00

2.21

1,810

0.0

1971

4.00

2.23

1,798

0.1

1976

4.00

2.24

1,786

0.3

1981

4.02

2.26

1,776

0.4

1986

4.14

2.29

1,812

0.5

1991

4.29

2.37

1,813

2.6

1992

4.33

2.38

1,818

3.0

1993

4.39

2.40

1,829

3.5

1994

4.45

2.42

1,842

4.0

1995

4.52

2.43

1,856

4.5

1996

4.59

2.45

1,873

5.0

1997

4.67

2.47

1,888

5.5

1998

4.74

2.49

1,901

6.0

1999

4.81

2.51

1,914

6.5

2000

4.88

2.54

1,923

7.0

2001

4.92

2.56

1,926

7.2

2002

4.96

2.58

1,924

7.4

2003

4.98

2.61

1,909

7.6

2004

4.99

2.65

1,887

7.8

2005

5.00

2.74

1,829

8.0

2006

5.01

3.02

1,659

7.8

2007

5.00

3.10

1,612

7.6

2008

4.98

3.11

1,603

7.4

2009

4.96

3.11

1,593

7.2

2010

4.94

3.12

1,581

7.0

2011

4.91

3.13

1,570

6.8

2012

4.88

3.13

1,558

6.6

2013

4.86

3.14

1,548

6.4

2014

4.83

3.14

1,538

6.2

2015

4.81

3.15

1,529

6.0

2016

4.79

3.15

1,520

5.8

2017

4.77

3.16

1,512

5.6

2018

4.76

3.16

1,504

5.4

2019

4.74

3.17

1,496

5.2

2020

4.72

3.17

1,488

5.0

Data from AC-attributes by year (registrations, GfK, Infomark) and from intrusive survey
Includes some crankcase heaters

MODEL INPUTS ATTRIBUTES


218

Table 68: Appliance Attributes for Cooling Only Room Air Conditioners
Year

Capacity
kW

Efficiency
cop cool

Average
Watts

Standby
Watts

1966

3.90

2.23

1,749

0.0

1971

3.85

2.25

1,715

0.1

1976

3.80

2.26

1,681

0.1

1981

3.75

2.29

1,642

0.2

1986

3.76

2.32

1,622

0.2

1991

3.71

2.37

1,563

1.7

1992

3.69

2.39

1,545

2.0

1993

3.69

2.41

1,532

2.4

1994

3.70

2.43

1,520

2.8

1995

3.70

2.45

1,509

3.1

1996

3.70

2.47

1,499

3.5

1997

3.71

2.49

1,488

3.9

1998

3.70

2.51

1,476

4.3

1999

3.73

2.53

1,473

4.6

2000

3.72

2.55

1,458

5.0

2001

3.68

2.57

1,432

5.1

2002

3.65

2.59

1,411

5.2

2003

3.64

2.62

1,391

5.3

2004

3.61

2.65

1,359

5.4

2005

3.58

2.68

1,336

5.5

2006

3.55

2.98

1,191

5.3

2007

3.50

3.01

1,161

5.1

2008

3.45

3.02

1,143

4.9

2009

3.41

3.03

1,126

4.7

2010

3.36

3.03

1,109

4.5

2011

3.33

3.04

1,097

4.5

2012

3.30

3.04

1,085

4.4

2013

3.27

3.04

1,075

4.4

2014

3.25

3.05

1,065

4.3

2015

3.22

3.05

1,056

4.3

2016

3.20

3.06

1,048

4.2

2017

3.18

3.06

1,040

4.2

2018

3.17

3.06

1,033

4.1

2019

3.15

3.07

1,027

4.1

2020

3.13

3.07

1,020

4.0

Data from AC-attributes by year (registrations, GfK, Infomark) and from intrusive survey
Includes some crankcase heaters

APPENDIX E
219

Table 69: Appliance Attributes for All Ducted Air Conditioners Cooling
Year

Capacity
kW

System
Cop Cool

Duct
Losses

Overall
cop cool

Average
Watts

Standby
Watts

1966

7.97

2.06

30%

1.44

5,536

35.0

1971

8.17

2.09

30%

1.46

5,586

35.0

1976

8.37

2.11

30%

1.48

5,655

35.0

1981

8.54

2.14

30%

1.50

5,690

35.0

1986

8.67

2.19

30%

1.54

5,645

35.0

1991

8.80

2.25

30%

1.57

5,594

35.0

1992

8.83

2.26

30%

1.58

5,577

35.0

1993

8.87

2.28

30%

1.59

5,560

35.4

1994

8.90

2.29

30%

1.61

5,544

35.8

1995

8.93

2.31

30%

1.62

5,528

36.1

1996

8.97

2.32

30%

1.63

5,513

36.5

1997

9.00

2.34

30%

1.64

5,498

36.9

1998

9.03

2.35

30%

1.65

5,482

37.3

1999

9.06

2.37

30%

1.66

5,467

37.6

2000

9.09

2.38

30%

1.67

5,451

38.0

2001

9.12

2.44

30%

1.71

5,335

38.3

2002

9.15

2.50

30%

1.75

5,224

38.6

2003

9.18

2.56

30%

1.79

5,118

38.9

2004

9.21

2.62

30%

1.84

5,017

39.2

2005

9.24

2.67

30%

1.87

4,939

39.5

2006

9.27

2.72

30%

1.91

4,862

39.6

2007

9.30

2.77

30%

1.94

4,792

39.7

2008

9.33

2.78

30%

1.95

4,792

39.8

2009

9.37

2.79

30%

1.96

4,793

39.9

2010

9.42

2.80

30%

1.96

4,796

40.0

2011

9.45

2.81

30%

1.97

4,807

39.8

2012

9.49

2.81

30%

1.97

4,815

39.6

2013

9.52

2.82

30%

1.97

4,821

39.4

2014

9.54

2.83

30%

1.98

4,825

39.2

2015

9.56

2.83

30%

1.98

4,826

39.0

2016

9.58

2.84

30%

1.98

4,825

38.8

2017

9.59

2.84

30%

1.99

4,822

38.6

2018

9.60

2.85

30%

1.99

4,819

38.4

2019

9.61

2.85

30%

2.00

4,814

38.2

2020

9.62

2.86

30%

2.00

4,809

38.0

Data from registrations by year and from intrusive survey


Includes some crankcase heaters

MODEL INPUTS ATTRIBUTES


220

Table 70: Appliance Attributes for Evaporative Air Conditioners


Year

Capacity
Eqiv kW

Efficiency
cop cool

Average
Watts

Standby
Watts

1966

12.00

15.00

800

0.0

1971

12.00

15.00

800

0.0

1976

12.00

15.00

800

0.0

1981

12.00

15.00

800

0.0

1986

12.00

15.00

800

0.0

1991

12.00

15.00

800

0.0

1992

12.00

15.00

800

0.0

1993

12.00

15.00

800

0.3

1994

12.00

15.00

800

0.5

1995

12.00

15.00

800

0.8

1996

12.00

15.00

800

1.0

1997

12.00

15.00

800

1.3

1998

12.00

15.00

800

1.5

1999

12.00

15.00

800

1.8

2000

12.00

15.00

800

2.0

2001

12.00

15.00

800

1.9

2002

12.00

15.00

800

1.8

2003

12.00

15.00

800

1.7

2004

12.00

15.00

800

1.6

2005

12.00

15.00

800

1.5

2006

12.00

15.00

800

1.4

2007

12.00

15.00

800

1.3

2008

12.00

15.00

800

1.2

2009

12.00

15.00

800

1.1

2010

12.00

15.00

800

1.0

2011

12.00

15.00

800

1.0

2012

12.00

15.00

800

0.9

2013

12.00

15.00

800

0.9

2014

12.00

15.00

800

0.8

2015

12.00

15.00

800

0.8

2016

12.00

15.00

800

0.7

2017

12.00

15.00

800

0.7

2018

12.00

15.00

800

0.6

2019

12.00

15.00

800

0.6

2020

12.00

15.00

800

0.5

APPENDIX E
221

Table 71: Appliance Attributes for Electric Resistive Space Heaters


Year

Capacity
kW

Efficiency
cop heat

Average
Watts

Standby
Watts

1966

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.0

1971

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.0

1976

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.0

1981

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.0

1986

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.0

1991

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.2

1992

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.2

1993

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.2

1994

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.3

1995

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.3

1996

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.3

1997

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.3

1998

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.4

1999

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.4

2000

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.4

2001

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.4

2002

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.4

2003

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.4

2004

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.4

2005

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.5

2006

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.5

2007

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.5

2008

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.5

2009

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.5

2010

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.5

2011

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.5

2012

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.5

2013

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.5

2014

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.5

2015

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.6

2016

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.6

2017

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.6

2018

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.6

2019

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.6

2020

2.40

1.00

2,400

0.6

MODEL INPUTS ATTRIBUTES


222

Table 72: Appliance Attributes for Reverse Cycle Room Air Conditioners Heating
Year

Capacity
kW

Efficiency
cop heat

Average
Watts

Standby
Watts

1966

4.00

2.43

1,646

0.0

1971

4.00

2.44

1,639

0.0

1976

4.00

2.45

1,632

0.0

1981

4.03

2.48

1,627

0.0

1986

4.23

2.53

1,673

0.0

1991

4.44

2.61

1,700

0.0

1992

4.49

2.63

1,711

0.0

1993

4.58

2.65

1,729

0.0

1994

4.67

2.67

1,751

0.0

1995

4.78

2.69

1,775

0.0

1996

4.89

2.71

1,802

0.0

1997

5.01

2.74

1,829

0.0

1998

5.12

2.76

1,856

0.0

1999

5.24

2.78

1,883

0.0

2000

5.35

2.81

1,906

0.0

2001

5.44

2.83

1,923

0.0

2002

5.51

2.85

1,933

0.0

2003

5.56

2.87

1,937

0.0

2004

5.60

2.94

1,906

0.0

2005

5.64

2.99

1,884

0.0

2006

5.68

3.20

1,776

0.0

2007

5.68

3.30

1,723

0.0

2008

5.67

3.30

1,717

0.0

2009

5.65

3.31

1,709

0.0

2010

5.62

3.32

1,696

0.0

2011

5.59

3.32

1,682

0.0

2012

5.55

3.32

1,669

0.0

2013

5.51

3.33

1,656

0.0

2014

5.48

3.33

1,644

0.0

2015

5.45

3.34

1,632

0.0

2016

5.41

3.34

1,620

0.0

2017

5.38

3.35

1,608

0.0

2018

5.35

3.35

1,597

0.0

2019

5.32

3.36

1,586

0.0

2020

5.29

3.36

1,574

0.0

Data from AC-attributes by year (registrations, GfK, Infomark) and from intrusive survey
Standby set to zero as included in RRCC

APPENDIX E
223

Table 73: Appliance Attributes for Reverse Cycle Ducted Air Conditioners Heating
Year

Capacity
kW

System
cop heat

Duct
losses

Overall
cop heat

Average
Watts

Standby
Watts

1966

9.30

2.38

30%

1.67

5,582

0.0

1971

9.50

2.41

30%

1.69

5,631

0.0

1976

9.70

2.46

30%

1.72

5,633

0.0

1981

9.87

2.52

30%

1.76

5,606

0.0

1986

10.00

2.59

30%

1.81

5,516

0.0

1991

10.14

2.67

30%

1.87

5,424

0.0

1992

10.17

2.69

30%

1.88

5,401

0.0

1993

10.20

2.71

30%

1.90

5,378

0.0

1994

10.23

2.73

30%

1.91

5,355

0.0

1995

10.27

2.75

30%

1.93

5,333

0.0

1996

10.30

2.77

30%

1.94

5,312

0.0

1997

10.33

2.79

30%

1.95

5,291

0.0

1998

10.36

2.81

30%

1.97

5,269

0.0

1999

10.40

2.83

30%

1.98

5,248

0.0

2000

10.43

2.85

30%

2.00

5,227

0.0

2001

10.46

2.90

30%

2.03

5,151

0.0

2002

10.49

2.95

30%

2.07

5,078

0.0

2003

10.52

3.00

30%

2.10

5,007

0.0

2004

10.54

3.05

30%

2.14

4,939

0.0

2005

10.57

3.10

30%

2.17

4,872

0.0

2006

10.60

3.15

30%

2.21

4,807

0.0

2007

10.63

3.20

30%

2.24

4,747

0.0

2008

10.67

3.21

30%

2.25

4,743

0.0

2009

10.71

3.23

30%

2.26

4,740

0.0

2010

10.75

3.24

30%

2.27

4,740

0.0

2011

10.79

3.25

30%

2.27

4,748

0.0

2012

10.82

3.25

30%

2.28

4,754

0.0

2013

10.85

3.26

30%

2.28

4,758

0.0

2014

10.88

3.26

30%

2.28

4,760

0.0

2015

10.90

3.27

30%

2.29

4,760

0.0

2016

10.91

3.28

30%

2.29

4,758

0.0

2017

10.92

3.28

30%

2.30

4,755

0.0

2018

10.93

3.29

30%

2.30

4,751

0.0

2019

10.94

3.29

30%

2.31

4,746

0.0

2020

10.95

3.30

30%

2.31

4,740

0.0

Standby set to zero as it is included in Duct C

MODEL INPUTS ATTRIBUTES


224

Table 74: Appliance Attributes for Gas Space Heaters


Year

Gas in
MJ/hour

Burner
Effic.

Pilot
GJ/year

Standby
Watts

Fan
Watts

1966

30.0

65.0%

3.50

0.0

35.0

1971

30.6

65.0%

3.48

0.0

35.0

1976

31.2

65.0%

3.46

0.0

35.0

1981

31.7

65.0%

3.44

0.0

35.0

1986

32.3

65.0%

3.42

0.0

35.0

1991

32.9

65.0%

3.40

0.0

35.0

1992

33.0

65.0%

3.40

0.0

35.0

1993

33.3

65.0%

3.04

0.4

35.0

1994

33.5

65.0%

2.68

0.8

35.0

1995

33.8

65.0%

2.31

1.1

35.0

1996

34.0

65.0%

1.95

1.5

35.0

1997

34.3

65.0%

1.59

1.9

35.0

1998

34.5

65.0%

1.23

2.3

35.0

1999

34.8

65.0%

0.86

2.6

35.0

2000

35.0

65.0%

0.50

3.0

35.0

2001

35.0

64.5%

0.48

3.2

35.5

2002

35.0

64.0%

0.46

3.4

36.0

2003

35.0

63.5%

0.44

3.6

36.5

2004

35.0

63.0%

0.42

3.8

37.0

2005

35.0

62.5%

0.40

4.0

37.5

2006

35.0

62.0%

0.38

4.2

38.0

2007

35.0

61.5%

0.36

3.7

38.5

2008

35.0

61.0%

0.34

3.1

39.0

2009

35.0

60.5%

0.32

2.6

39.5

2010

35.0

60.0%

0.30

2.1

40.0

2011

35.0

59.6%

0.29

1.5

40.5

2012

35.0

59.2%

0.28

1.0

41.0

2013

35.0

58.8%

0.27

1.0

41.5

2014

35.0

58.4%

0.26

1.0

42.0

2015

35.0

58.0%

0.25

1.0

42.5

2016

35.0

57.6%

0.24

1.0

43.0

2017

35.0

57.2%

0.23

1.0

43.5

2018

35.0

56.8%

0.22

1.0

44.0

2019

35.0

56.4%

0.21

1.0

44.5

2020

35.0

56.0%

0.20

1.0

45.0

APPENDIX E
225

Table 75: Appliance Attributes for Ducted Gas Space Heater


Year

Gas in
MJ/hour

Burner
Effic.

Duct
losses

Overall
Effic.

Pilot
GJ/year

Standby
W

Fan
Watts

1966

80.0

60.0%

30%

42.0%

3.50

0.0

400

1971

81.0

61.0%

30%

42.7%

3.48

0.0

419

1976

81.9

61.9%

30%

43.3%

3.46

0.0

438

1981

82.9

62.9%

30%

44.0%

3.44

0.0

457

1986

83.8

63.8%

30%

44.7%

3.42

0.0

476

1991

84.8

64.8%

30%

45.4%

3.40

0.0

496

1992

85.0

65.0%

30%

45.5%

3.40

0.0

500

1993

85.6

66.3%

30%

46.4%

2.99

0.7

506

1994

86.3

67.5%

30%

47.3%

2.58

1.4

512

1995

86.9

68.8%

30%

48.1%

2.16

2.1

518

1996

87.5

70.0%

30%

49.0%

1.75

2.8

525

1997

88.1

71.3%

30%

49.9%

1.34

3.4

531

1998

88.8

72.5%

30%

50.8%

0.93

4.1

537

1999

89.4

73.8%

30%

51.6%

0.51

4.8

543

2000

90.0

75.0%

30%

52.5%

0.10

5.5

550

2001

92.0

75.0%

30%

52.5%

0.10

6.0

555

2002

94.0

75.0%

30%

52.5%

0.10

6.5

560

2003

96.0

75.0%

30%

52.5%

0.10

7.0

565

2004

98.0

75.0%

30%

52.5%

0.10

7.5

570

2005

100.0

75.0%

30%

52.5%

0.10

8.0

575

2006

102.0

75.0%

30%

52.5%

0.10

8.5

580

2007

104.0

75.0%

30%

52.5%

0.10

7.3

585

2008

106.0

75.0%

30%

52.5%

0.10

6.0

590

2009

108.0

75.0%

30%

52.5%

0.10

4.8

595

2010

110.0

75.0%

30%

52.5%

0.10

3.5

600

2011

111.0

75.0%

30%

52.5%

0.10

2.3

605

2012

112.0

75.0%

30%

52.5%

0.10

1.0

610

2013

113.0

75.0%

30%

52.5%

0.10

1.0

615

2014

114.0

75.0%

30%

52.5%

0.10

1.0

620

2015

115.0

75.0%

30%

52.5%

0.10

1.0

625

2016

116.0

75.0%

30%

52.5%

0.10

1.0

630

2017

117.0

75.0%

30%

52.5%

0.10

1.0

635

2018

118.0

75.0%

30%

52.5%

0.10

1.0

640

2019

119.0

75.0%

30%

52.5%

0.10

1.0

645

2020

120.0

75.0%

30%

52.5%

0.10

1.0

650

MODEL INPUTS ATTRIBUTES


226

Table 76: Appliance Attributes


Closed Combustion Wood Heaters

Table 77: Appliance Attributes


Open Combustion Wood Heaters

Year

Combustion
Efficiency

Year

Combustion
Efficiency

1966

42.0%

1966

10.0%

1971

42.6%

1971

10.4%

1976

43.2%

1976

10.8%

1981

43.7%

1981

11.2%

1986

44.3%

1986

11.5%

1991

44.9%

1991

11.9%

1992

45.0%

1992

12.0%

1993

45.4%

1993

12.1%

1994

45.8%

1994

12.3%

1995

46.1%

1995

12.4%

1996

46.5%

1996

12.5%

1997

46.9%

1997

12.6%

1998

47.3%

1998

12.8%

1999

47.6%

1999

12.9%

2000

48.0%

2000

13.0%

2001

48.5%

2001

13.1%

2002

49.0%

2002

13.2%

2003

49.5%

2003

13.3%

2004

50.0%

2004

13.4%

2005

50.5%

2005

13.5%

2006

51.0%

2006

13.6%

2007

51.5%

2007

13.7%

2008

52.0%

2008

13.8%

2009

52.5%

2009

13.9%

2010

53.0%

2010

14.0%

2011

53.3%

2011

14.1%

2012

53.6%

2012

14.2%

2013

53.9%

2013

14.3%

2014

54.2%

2014

14.4%

2015

54.5%

2015

14.5%

2016

54.8%

2016

14.6%

2017

55.1%

2017

14.7%

2018

55.4%

2018

14.8%

2019

55.7%

2019

14.9%

2020

56.0%

2020

15.0%

APPENDIX E
227

Table 78: Appliance Attributes for Electric


Storage Water Heaters

Table 79: Appliance Attributes for Gas Storage


Water Heaters

Year

Conversion
Efficiency

Heat Loss
kWh/day

Year

Star
Rating

Recov.
Eff

Maint.
MJ/day

1966

98.0%

3.30

1966

1.8

70.2%

21.6

1971

98.0%

3.18

1971

2.0

70.9%

21.1

1976

98.0%

3.06

1976

2.2

71.6%

20.6

1981

98.0%

3.06

1981

2.3

72.3%

20.0

1986

98.0%

3.06

1986

2.5

73.0%

19.5

1991

98.0%

2.74

1991

3.0

75.0%

18.0

1992

98.0%

2.67

1992

3.1

75.4%

17.7

1993

98.0%

2.67

1993

3.1

75.5%

17.6

1994

98.0%

2.67

1994

3.2

75.6%

17.6

1995

98.0%

2.67

1995

3.2

75.7%

17.5

1996

98.0%

2.67

1996

3.2

75.8%

17.4

1997

98.0%

2.67

1997

3.2

75.9%

17.3

1998

98.0%

2.67

1998

3.3

76.1%

17.3

1999

98.0%

2.67

1999

3.3

76.2%

17.2

2000

98.0%

2.08

2000

3.3

76.3%

17.1

2001

98.0%

2.08

2001

3.4

76.8%

16.7

2002

98.0%

2.08

2002

3.5

77.3%

16.4

2003

98.0%

2.08

2003

3.7

77.8%

16.0

2004

98.0%

2.08

2004

3.8

78.4%

15.7

2005

98.0%

2.08

2005

3.9

78.9%

15.3

2006

98.0%

1.99

2006

4.2

80.1%

14.5

2007

98.0%

1.99

2007

4.4

81.3%

13.7

2008

98.0%

1.99

2008

4.7

82.5%

13.0

2009

98.0%

1.99

2009

4.9

83.7%

12.2

2010

98.0%

1.99

2010

5.2

85.0%

11.4

2011

98.0%

1.99

2011

5.2

85.1%

11.3

2012

98.0%

1.99

2012

5.2

85.2%

11.3

2013

98.0%

1.99

2013

5.3

85.3%

11.2

2014

98.0%

1.99

2014

5.3

85.4%

11.2

2015

98.0%

1.99

2015

5.3

85.5%

11.1

2016

98.0%

1.99

2016

5.3

85.6%

11.0

2017

98.0%

1.99

2017

5.3

85.7%

11.0

2018

98.0%

1.99

2018

5.4

85.8%

10.9

2019

98.0%

1.99

2019

5.4

85.9%

10.9

2020

98.0%

1.99

2020

5.4

86.0%

10.8

MODEL INPUTS ATTRIBUTES


228

Table 80: Appliance Attributes for Gas Instantaneous Water Heaters


Year

Star
Rating

St state
Eff

Pilot
MJ/day

Standby
Watts

On
Watts

1966

2.8

53.6%

19.0

0.0

0.0

1971

2.9

53.9%

19.0

0.0

0.0

1976

3.0

54.3%

19.0

0.0

0.0

1981

3.0

54.7%

19.0

0.0

0.0

1986

3.1

55.0%

19.0

0.0

0.0

1991

3.6

57.7%

17.3

1.7

12.5

1992

3.7

58.2%

17.0

2.0

15.0

1993

3.8

59.0%

15.6

2.7

19.4

1994

4.0

59.8%

14.3

3.4

23.8

1995

4.1

60.6%

12.9

4.1

28.1

1996

4.3

61.5%

11.5

4.8

32.5

1997

4.4

62.3%

10.1

5.4

36.9

1998

4.5

63.2%

8.0

5.0

35.0

1999

4.7

64.1%

7.4

6.8

45.6

2000

4.8

65.0%

6.0

7.5

50.0

2001

4.9

65.5%

5.0

7.6

54.0

2002

5.0

66.0%

4.0

7.7

58.0

2003

5.0

66.6%

3.0

7.8

62.0

2004

5.1

67.1%

2.0

7.9

66.0

2005

5.2

67.7%

1.0

8.0

70.0

2006

5.2

68.0%

0.8

7.2

70.0

2007

5.3

68.2%

0.6

6.4

70.0

2008

5.3

68.5%

0.4

5.6

70.0

2009

5.4

68.8%

0.2

4.8

70.0

2010

5.4

69.1%

0.0

4.0

70.0

2011

5.4

69.4%

0.0

3.7

70.0

2012

5.5

69.7%

0.0

3.4

70.0

2013

5.5

70.0%

0.0

3.1

70.0

2014

5.6

70.2%

0.0

2.8

70.0

2015

5.6

70.5%

0.0

2.5

70.0

2016

5.6

70.8%

0.0

2.2

70.0

2017

5.7

71.1%

0.0

1.9

70.0

2018

5.7

71.4%

0.0

1.6

70.0

2019

5.8

71.7%

0.0

1.3

70.0

2020

5.8

72.0%

0.0

1.0

70.0

Marginal efficiency includes implied startup losses

APPENDIX E
229

Table 81: Appliance Attributes for Electric Boosted


Solar Water Heaters

Table 82: Appliance Attributes for Heap Pump Solar


Water Heaters

Year

Conversion
Efficiency

Heat Loss
kWh/day

Year

Conversion
Efficiency

Heat Loss
kWh/day

1966

92.0%

2.00

1966

190%

0.0

1971

93.5%

1.98

1971

193%

0.0

1976

95.0%

1.95

1976

195%

0.0

1981

96.5%

1.93

1981

198%

0.0

1986

98.0%

1.90

1986

200%

0.0

1991

98.0%

1.82

1991

208%

0.0

1992

98.0%

1.80

1992

210%

0.0

1993

98.0%

1.78

1993

215%

0.0

1994

98.0%

1.77

1994

219%

0.0

1995

98.0%

1.75

1995

224%

0.0

1996

98.0%

1.74

1996

229%

0.0

1997

98.0%

1.72

1997

233%

0.0

1998

98.0%

1.70

1998

238%

0.0

1999

98.0%

1.69

1999

242%

0.0

2000

98.0%

1.67

2000

247%

0.0

2001

98.0%

1.67

2001

247%

0.0

2002

98.0%

1.67

2002

247%

0.0

2003

98.0%

1.67

2003

247%

0.0

2004

98.0%

1.67

2004

247%

0.0

2005

98.0%

1.67

2005

247%

0.0

2006

98.0%

1.67

2006

247%

0.0

2007

98.0%

1.67

2007

247%

0.0

2008

98.0%

1.67

2008

247%

0.0

2009

98.0%

1.67

2009

247%

0.0

2010

98.0%

1.67

2010

247%

0.0

2011

98.0%

1.67

2011

247%

0.0

2012

98.0%

1.67

2012

247%

0.0

2013

98.0%

1.67

2013

247%

0.0

2014

98.0%

1.67

2014

247%

0.0

2015

98.0%

1.67

2015

247%

0.0

2016

98.0%

1.67

2016

247%

0.0

2017

98.0%

1.67

2017

247%

0.0

2018

98.0%

1.67

2018

247%

0.0

2019

98.0%

1.67

2019

247%

0.0

2020

98.0%

1.67

2020

247%

0.0

Heat loss based on thermostat setting of 60C.


Zone 3 used as base (G Morrison).
Heat Loss at 0 MJ/day adjusted for actual energy use.
Assumed that the top third of tank is heated only.
A generalised third order polynomial was fitted to determine heat loss
based on load for the selected Zone (fixed adjustment factor used for
other zones).

MODEL INPUTS ATTRIBUTES


230

COP is nominal COP for Zone 3 @ 20MJ/day load adjusted in WH


module by zone and delivery
Heat loss is set to zero as COP is based on delivered hot water
energy by zone

Table 83: Appliance Attributes for Solar Water


Heaters with In Tank Gas Boosting

Table 84: Appliance Attributes for Electric


Cooktops

Year

Pump
kWh/y

Maint.
MJ/day

Year

Conversion
Efficiency

Standby
Watts

1966

65.0

30.0

1966

55.0%

0.0

1971

65.0

28.8

1971

55.0%

0.0

1976

65.0

27.5

1976

55.0%

0.0

1981

65.0

26.3

1981

55.0%

0.0

1986

65.0

25.0

1986

55.0%

0.3

1991

65.0

20.8

1991

55.0%

0.3

1992

65.0

20.0

1992

55.0%

0.3

1993

65.0

19.4

1993

55.0%

0.3

1994

65.0

18.8

1994

55.0%

0.3

1995

65.0

18.1

1995

55.0%

0.3

1996

65.0

17.5

1996

55.0%

0.3

1997

65.0

16.9

1997

55.0%

0.3

1998

65.0

16.3

1998

55.0%

0.3

1999

65.0

15.6

1999

55.0%

0.3

2000

65.0

15.0

2000

55.0%

0.3

2001

65.0

14.9

2001

55.0%

0.3

2002

65.0

14.8

2002

55.0%

0.3

2003

65.0

14.7

2003

55.0%

0.3

2004

65.0

14.6

2004

55.0%

0.3

2005

65.0

14.5

2005

55.0%

0.3

2006

65.0

14.4

2006

55.0%

0.2

2007

65.0

14.3

2007

55.0%

0.2

2008

65.0

14.2

2008

55.0%

0.2

2009

65.0

14.1

2009

55.0%

0.2

2010

65.0

14.0

2010

55.0%

0.2

2011

65.0

13.8

2011

55.0%

0.2

2012

65.0

13.6

2012

55.0%

0.2

2013

65.0

13.4

2013

55.0%

0.2

2014

65.0

13.2

2014

55.0%

0.2

2015

65.0

13.0

2015

55.0%

0.2

2016

65.0

12.8

2016

55.0%

0.1

2017

65.0

12.6

2017

55.0%

0.1

2018

65.0

12.4

2018

55.0%

0.1

2019

65.0

12.2

2019

55.0%

0.1

2020

65.0

12.0

2020

55.0%

0.1

Heat Loss based on modelling for no load in Zone 3 adjusted in


module by zone and delivery
Marginal efficiency calculated by modelling of solar system in water
heater module

APPENDIX E
231

Table 85: Appliance Attributes for Gas Cooktops

Table 86: Appliance Attributes for Electric Ovens

Year

Conversion
Efficiency

Standby
Watts

Year

Energy
Wh/hour

Standby
Watts

1966

35.0%

0.0

1966

1000

0.0

1971

35.0%

0.0

1971

1000

0.0

1976

35.0%

0.0

1976

1000

0.0

1981

35.0%

0.0

1981

1000

0.0

1986

35.0%

0.0

1986

1000

1.0

1991

35.0%

0.3

1991

1000

2.7

1992

35.0%

0.3

1992

1000

3.0

1993

35.0%

0.3

1993

975

2.9

1994

35.0%

0.3

1994

950

2.9

1995

35.0%

0.3

1995

925

2.8

1996

35.0%

0.3

1996

900

2.8

1997

35.0%

0.3

1997

875

2.7

1998

35.0%

0.3

1998

850

2.6

1999

35.0%

0.3

1999

825

2.6

2000

35.0%

0.3

2000

800

2.5

2001

35.0%

0.3

2001

792

2.5

2002

35.0%

0.3

2002

784

2.5

2003

35.0%

0.3

2003

776

2.4

2004

35.0%

0.3

2004

768

2.4

2005

35.0%

0.3

2005

760

2.4

2006

35.0%

0.2

2006

752

2.3

2007

35.0%

0.2

2007

744

2.1

2008

35.0%

0.2

2008

736

1.9

2009

35.0%

0.2

2009

728

1.7

2010

35.0%

0.2

2010

720

1.4

2011

35.0%

0.2

2011

719

1.2

2012

35.0%

0.2

2012

718

1.0

2013

35.0%

0.2

2013

717

1.0

2014

35.0%

0.2

2014

716

1.0

2015

35.0%

0.2

2015

715

1.0

2016

35.0%

0.1

2016

714

1.0

2017

35.0%

0.1

2017

713

1.0

2018

35.0%

0.1

2018

712

1.0

2019

35.0%

0.1

2019

711

1.0

2020

35.0%

0.1

2020

710

1.0

Heat loss data updated from Choice 2007


Standby mostly clocks

MODEL INPUTS ATTRIBUTES


232

Table 87: Appliance Attributes for Gas Ovens


Year

Energy
MJ/hour

Standby
Watts

1966

6800

0.0

1971

6800

0.0

1976

6800

0.0

1981

6800

0.0

1986

6800

1.0

1991

6800

2.7

1992

6800

3.0

1993

6800

2.9

1994

6800

2.9

1995

6800

2.8

1996

6800

2.8

1997

6800

2.7

1998

6800

2.6

1999

6800

2.6

2000

6800

2.5

2001

6800

2.5

2002

6800

2.5

2003

6800

2.4

2004

6800

2.4

2005

6800

2.4

2006

6800

2.3

2007

6800

2.1

2008

6800

1.9

2009

6800

1.7

2010

6800

1.4

2011

6800

1.2

2012

6800

1.0

2013

6800

1.0

2014

6800

1.0

2015

6800

1.0

2016

6800

1.0

2017

6800

1.0

2018

6800

1.0

2019

6800

1.0

2020

6800

1.0

Standby mostly clocks

APPENDIX E
233

Table 88: Appliance Attributes for Microwave Ovens


Year

Rated
Watts

Effic

Power
Rating

Standby
Watts

Off
Watts

1966

500

45%

1111

0.1

0.1

1971

500

45%

1111

0.2

0.1

1976

500

45%

1111

0.3

0.1

1981

500

45%

1111

0.4

0.1

1986

500

45%

1111

0.5

0.1

1991

542

45%

1204

3.4

0.1

1992

550

45%

1222

4.0

0.1

1993

563

46%

1233

3.9

0.1

1994

575

46%

1243

3.9

0.1

1995

588

47%

1253

3.8

0.1

1996

600

48%

1263

3.8

0.1

1997

613

48%

1273

3.7

0.1

1998

625

49%

1282

3.6

0.1

1999

638

49%

1291

3.6

0.1

2000

650

50%

1300

3.5

0.1

2001

670

51%

1314

3.4

0.1

2002

690

52%

1327

3.4

0.1

2003

710

53%

1340

3.3

0.1

2004

730

54%

1352

3.3

0.1

2005

750

55%

1364

3.2

0.1

2006

760

56%

1367

3.1

0.1

2007

770

56%

1370

2.8

0.1

2008

780

57%

1373

2.4

0.1

2009

790

57%

1376

2.1

0.1

2010

800

58%

1379

1.7

0.1

2011

800

58%

1375

1.4

0.1

2012

800

58%

1370

1.0

0.1

2013

800

59%

1365

1.0

0.1

2014

800

59%

1361

1.0

0.1

2015

800

59%

1356

1.0

0.1

2016

800

59%

1351

1.0

0.1

2017

800

59%

1347

1.0

0.1

2018

800

60%

1342

1.0

0.1

2019

800

60%

1338

1.0

0.1

2020

800

60%

1333

1.0

0.1

MODEL INPUTS ATTRIBUTES


234

Table 89: Appliance Attributes for Televisions (composite sales weighted)


Year

Power
Watts

Standby
Watts

Off
Watts

1966

55.0

0.0

0.0

1971

57.5

0.3

0.0

1976

60.0

0.5

0.0

1981

62.5

0.8

0.0

1986

65.0

1.0

0.0

1991

65.7

12.7

0.0

1992

66.3

15.0

0.0

1993

67.0

14.0

0.0

1994

67.6

13.0

0.0

1995

68.7

12.0

0.0

1996

69.7

11.0

0.1

1997

70.7

10.0

0.1

1998

72.1

8.9

0.1

1999

73.4

7.9

0.1

2000

75.4

6.9

0.1

2001

77.6

6.0

0.1

2002

79.7

5.2

0.1

2003

81.9

4.2

0.1

2004

87.2

3.5

0.1

2005

100.2

3.1

0.1

2006

120.9

2.5

0.1

2007

140.9

2.1

0.1

2008

158.4

1.7

0.1

2009

173.7

1.5

0.1

2010

187.2

1.3

0.1

2011

191.3

1.2

0.1

2012

196.9

1.1

0.1

2013

203.4

1.0

0.1

2014

210.4

1.0

0.1

2015

217.9

0.9

0.1

2016

225.5

0.9

0.0

2017

229.4

0.8

0.0

2018

231.0

0.7

0.0

2019

230.9

0.7

0.0

2020

229.6

0.6

0.0

TV on mode power from TV sales model

APPENDIX E
235

Table 90: Appliance Attributes for Video Cassette Recorders (VCR)


Year

On mode
Watts

Standby mode
Watts

Off mode
Watts

1966

15.0

10.0

0.5

1971

14.8

10.0

0.5

1976

14.5

10.0

0.5

1981

14.3

10.0

0.5

1986

14.0

10.0

0.5

1991

14.0

7.1

0.5

1992

14.0

6.5

0.5

1993

13.9

6.2

0.5

1994

13.9

5.9

0.5

1995

13.8

5.6

0.5

1996

13.8

5.3

0.5

1997

13.7

4.9

0.5

1998

13.6

4.6

0.5

1999

13.6

4.3

0.5

2000

13.5

4.0

0.5

2001

13.4

3.8

0.5

2002

13.3

3.5

0.5

2003

13.2

3.1

0.5

2004

13.1

2.9

0.5

2005

13.0

2.6

0.5

2006

13.0

2.3

0.5

2007

13.0

2.1

0.4

2008

13.0

1.9

0.4

2009

13.0

1.7

0.3

2010

13.0

1.4

0.3

2011

13.0

1.2

0.3

2012

13.0

1.0

0.3

2013

13.0

0.9

0.3

2014

13.0

0.9

0.3

2015

13.0

0.8

0.3

2016

13.0

0.8

0.3

2017

13.0

0.7

0.3

2018

13.0

0.6

0.3

2019

13.0

0.6

0.3

2020

13.0

0.5

0.3

MODEL INPUTS ATTRIBUTES


236

Table 91: Appliance Attributes for DVDs


Year

On mode
Watts

Standby mode
Watts

Off mode
Watts

1966

15.0

6.0

0.5

1971

15.0

6.0

0.5

1976

15.0

6.0

0.5

1981

15.0

6.0

0.5

1986

15.0

6.0

0.5

1991

15.0

6.0

0.5

1992

15.0

6.0

0.5

1993

15.0

6.0

0.5

1994

15.0

6.0

0.5

1995

15.0

6.0

0.5

1996

15.0

6.0

0.5

1997

15.0

6.0

0.5

1998

15.0

6.0

0.5

1999

15.0

6.0

0.5

2000

15.0

6.0

0.5

2001

14.2

5.8

0.4

2002

13.3

3.0

0.4

2003

12.6

2.6

0.3

2004

12.0

2.4

0.2

2005

11.8

2.6

0.2

2006

11.4

2.4

0.1

2007

11.5

2.3

0.1

2008

11.7

2.1

0.1

2009

11.8

1.9

0.1

2010

12.0

1.7

0.1

2011

12.1

1.4

0.1

2012

12.2

1.1

0.1

2013

12.3

1.1

0.1

2014

12.4

1.0

0.1

2015

12.5

1.0

0.1

2016

12.5

0.9

0.1

2017

12.6

0.9

0.1

2018

12.6

0.8

0.1

2019

12.5

0.7

0.1

2020

12.5

0.7

0.1

DVD on mode and standby mode power from Player/Recorder sales share model

APPENDIX E
237

Table 92: Appliance Attributes for Set Top Boxes (STB) Free to Air Digital
Year

On mode
Watts

Active
Watts

Passive
Watts

1966

20.0

20.0

9.0

1971

20.0

20.0

9.0

1976

20.0

20.0

9.0

1981

20.0

20.0

9.0

1986

20.0

20.0

9.0

1991

20.0

20.0

9.0

1992

20.0

20.0

9.0

1993

19.8

19.8

9.0

1994

19.5

19.5

9.0

1995

19.3

19.3

9.0

1996

19.0

19.0

9.0

1997

18.8

18.8

9.0

1998

18.5

18.5

9.0

1999

18.3

18.3

9.0

2000

18.5

18.5

9.2

2001

17.9

17.9

9.1

2002

17.3

17.3

9.0

2003

16.7

16.7

8.9

2004

16.1

16.1

8.8

2005

15.4

15.4

8.7

2006

15.4

15.4

8.6

2007

15.5

15.5

8.5

2008

15.5

15.5

8.4

2009

15.5

15.5

8.3

2010

9.8

9.8

2.0

2011

10.0

10.0

2.0

2012

10.1

10.1

2.0

2013

10.3

10.3

2.0

2014

10.4

10.4

2.0

2015

10.6

10.6

2.0

2016

10.7

10.7

2.0

2017

10.8

10.8

2.0

2018

10.8

10.8

2.0

2019

10.9

10.9

2.0

2020

11.0

11.0

2.0

Free to air boxes only have on and passive standby. Some will have capability to wake and
download updates this is for short periods only

MODEL INPUTS ATTRIBUTES


238

Table 93: Appliance Attributes for Set Top Boxes Subscription (Pay TV)
Year

On mode
Watts

Active
Watts

Passive
Watts

1966

15.0

15.0

2.0

1971

14.8

14.8

2.0

1976

14.5

14.5

2.0

1981

14.3

14.3

2.0

1986

14.0

14.0

2.0

1991

14.0

14.0

2.0

1992

14.0

14.0

2.0

1993

14.0

14.0

2.0

1994

14.0

14.0

2.0

1995

14.0

14.0

2.0

1996

14.0

14.0

2.0

1997

14.0

14.0

2.0

1998

14.0

14.0

2.0

1999

14.0

14.0

2.0

2000

14.0

14.0

2.0

2001

14.0

14.0

2.0

2002

14.0

14.0

2.0

2003

14.0

14.0

2.0

2004

14.0

14.0

2.0

2005

14.0

14.0

2.0

2006

12.0

12.0

2.0

2007

10.0

10.0

2.0

2008

8.0

8.0

2.0

2009

6.0

6.0

2.0

2010

6.0

6.0

2.0

2011

6.2

5.7

2.0

2012

6.4

5.4

2.0

2013

6.6

5.1

2.0

2014

6.8

4.8

2.0

2015

7.0

4.5

2.0

2016

7.2

4.2

2.0

2017

7.4

3.9

2.0

2018

7.6

3.6

2.0

2019

7.8

3.3

2.0

2020

8.0

3.0

2.0

Pay TV boxes only have on and effectively active standby (passive does not really exist) as downloads
and conditional access keys are being updated regularly.
User cannot disconnect boxes for long periods as access keys become lost and service stops
Longer term projections are for active to fall to lower power levels to allow conditional waking for updates

APPENDIX E
239

Table 94: Appliance Attributes for Miscellaneous Home Entertainment Equipment


Year

On mode
Watts

Standby mode
Watts

Off mode
Watts

1966

20.0

0.0

0.0

1971

20.0

0.0

0.0

1976

20.0

0.0

0.0

1981

20.0

0.0

0.0

1986

20.0

0.0

0.0

1991

18.8

5.8

0.3

1992

18.5

7.0

0.3

1993

18.3

6.5

0.3

1994

18.0

6.0

0.4

1995

17.8

5.5

0.4

1996

17.5

5.3

0.5

1997

17.3

5.1

0.6

1998

17.0

4.9

0.6

1999

16.8

4.7

0.7

2000

16.5

4.5

0.8

2001

16.0

4.4

0.8

2002

15.5

4.3

0.8

2003

15.0

4.2

0.8

2004

14.5

4.1

0.8

2005

14.0

4.0

0.8

2006

13.8

3.8

0.8

2007

13.6

3.3

0.7

2008

13.4

2.9

0.6

2009

13.2

2.4

0.6

2010

13.0

1.9

0.5

2011

13.0

1.5

0.4

2012

12.9

1.0

0.3

2013

12.9

1.0

0.3

2014

12.8

1.0

0.3

2015

12.8

1.0

0.3

2016

12.7

1.0

0.3

2017

12.7

1.0

0.3

2018

12.6

1.0

0.3

2019

12.6

1.0

0.3

2020

12.5

1.0

0.3

MODEL INPUTS ATTRIBUTES


240

Table 95: Appliance Attributes for Games Consoles


Year

Power
Watts

Standby
Watts

Off
Watts

1966

15.0

14.0

1.0

1971

15.0

14.0

1.0

1976

15.0

14.0

1.0

1981

15.0

14.0

1.0

1986

15.0

14.0

1.0

1991

15.0

14.0

1.0

1992

15.0

14.0

1.0

1993

15.0

14.0

1.0

1994

15.0

14.0

1.0

1995

15.0

14.0

1.0

1996

15.0

14.0

1.0

1997

15.0

14.0

1.0

1998

15.0

14.0

1.0

1999

15.0

14.0

1.0

2000

21.0

14.6

1.0

2001

33.0

26.8

1.0

2002

39.3

32.9

1.0

2003

40.3

33.0

1.0

2004

40.8

33.0

1.0

2005

53.5

43.0

1.0

2006

69.0

59.5

1.0

2007

81.9

71.1

1.0

2008

94.8

82.6

1.0

2009

107.6

94.2

1.0

2010

120.5

105.8

1.0

2011

120.5

105.8

1.0

2012

120.5

105.8

1.0

2013

120.5

105.8

1.0

2014

120.5

105.8

1.0

2015

120.5

105.8

1.0

2016

120.5

105.8

1.0

2017

120.5

105.8

1.0

2018

120.5

105.8

1.0

2019

120.5

105.8

1.0

2020

120.5

105.8

1.0

APPENDIX E
241

Table 96: Appliance Attributes for Desktop Computers


Year

On mode
Watts

Standby mode
Watts

Off mode
Watts

1966

50

50.0

0.0

1971

50

50.0

0.0

1976

50

50.0

0.0

1981

50

50.0

0.0

1986

50

50.0

0.0

1991

54

50.0

0.0

1992

55

50.0

0.0

1993

57

53.3

0.0

1994

58

56.7

0.0

1995

60

60.0

0.0

1996

64

56.0

0.7

1997

68

52.0

1.4

1998

72

48.0

2.1

1999

76

44.0

2.8

2000

80

40.0

3.5

2001

84

38.0

3.6

2002

88

36.0

3.7

2003

92

34.0

3.8

2004

96

32.0

3.9

2005

100

30.0

4.0

2006

102

29.0

3.6

2007

104

28.0

3.2

2008

106

27.0

2.7

2009

108

26.0

2.3

2010

110

25.0

1.9

2011

108

23.5

1.4

2012

106

22.0

1.0

2013

104

20.5

1.0

2014

102

19.0

1.0

2015

100

17.5

1.0

2016

98

16.0

1.0

2017

96

14.5

1.0

2018

94

13.0

1.0

2019

92

11.5

1.0

2020

90

10.0

1.0

MODEL INPUTS ATTRIBUTES


242

Table 97: Appliance Attributes for Computer Monitors


Year

On mode
Watts

Standby mode
Watts

Off mode
Watts

1966

50.0

6.0

0.1

1971

52.5

6.0

0.1

1976

55.0

6.0

0.1

1981

57.5

6.0

0.1

1986

60.0

6.0

0.1

1991

64.2

6.0

0.1

1992

65.0

6.0

0.1

1993

64.4

5.9

0.1

1994

63.8

5.8

0.1

1995

63.1

5.6

0.1

1996

62.5

5.5

0.1

1997

61.9

5.4

0.6

1998

61.3

5.3

1.1

1999

60.6

5.1

1.5

2000

58.5

4.9

2.0

2001

53.2

4.3

1.9

2002

48.2

3.8

1.7

2003

43.5

3.3

1.6

2004

39.1

2.9

1.4

2005

35.0

2.5

1.2

2006

34.8

2.1

1.1

2007

34.3

1.8

1.1

2008

33.7

1.5

1.0

2009

33.0

1.3

1.0

2010

32.0

1.0

1.0

2011

32.1

1.0

1.0

2012

32.2

1.0

1.0

2013

32.3

1.0

1.0

2014

32.4

1.0

1.0

2015

32.5

1.0

1.0

2016

32.6

1.0

1.0

2017

32.7

1.0

1.0

2018

32.8

1.0

1.0

2019

32.9

1.0

1.0

2020

33.0

1.0

1.0

APPENDIX E
243

Table 98: Appliance Attributes for Laptop Computers


Year

On mode
Watts

Standby mode
Watts

No load
Watts

1966

30.0

5.0

2.0

1971

30.0

5.0

2.0

1976

30.0

5.0

2.0

1981

30.0

5.0

2.0

1986

30.0

5.0

2.0

1991

30.0

5.0

2.0

1992

30.0

5.0

2.0

1993

30.0

5.0

2.0

1994

30.0

5.0

2.0

1995

30.0

5.0

1.9

1996

30.0

5.0

1.9

1997

30.0

5.0

1.9

1998

30.0

5.0

1.9

1999

30.0

5.0

1.8

2000

30.0

5.0

1.8

2001

30.0

4.8

1.7

2002

30.0

4.6

1.6

2003

30.0

4.4

1.4

2004

30.0

4.2

1.3

2005

30.0

4.0

1.2

2006

30.0

3.8

1.2

2007

30.0

3.6

1.1

2008

30.0

3.4

1.1

2009

30.0

3.2

1.0

2010

30.0

3.0

1.0

2011

30.0

2.9

1.0

2012

30.0

2.8

1.0

2013

30.0

2.7

1.0

2014

30.0

2.6

1.0

2015

30.0

2.5

1.0

2016

30.0

2.4

1.0

2017

30.0

2.3

1.0

2018

30.0

2.2

1.0

2019

30.0

2.1

1.0

2020

30.0

2.0

1.0

MODEL INPUTS ATTRIBUTES


244

Table 99: Appliance Attributes for Miscellaneous Information Technology Equipment Switched
Year

On mode
Watts

Standby mode
Watts

Off mode
Watts

1966

4.6

4.6

3.1

1971

4.6

4.6

3.1

1976

4.6

4.6

3.1

1981

4.6

4.6

3.1

1986

4.6

4.6

3.1

1991

4.6

4.6

3.1

1992

4.6

4.6

3.1

1993

4.6

4.6

3.0

1994

4.7

4.7

2.8

1995

4.7

4.7

2.7

1996

4.7

4.7

2.6

1997

4.7

4.7

2.4

1998

4.8

4.8

2.3

1999

4.8

4.8

2.1

2000

4.8

4.8

2.0

2001

4.8

4.8

1.9

2002

4.9

4.9

1.8

2003

4.9

4.9

1.7

2004

5.0

5.0

1.5

2005

5.0

5.0

1.4

2006

4.6

4.6

1.3

2007

4.1

4.1

1.1

2008

3.7

3.7

0.9

2009

3.2

3.2

0.8

2010

2.8

2.8

0.6

2011

2.8

2.8

0.6

2012

2.8

2.8

0.6

2013

2.9

2.9

0.6

2014

2.9

2.9

0.6

2015

2.9

2.9

0.6

2016

2.9

2.9

0.6

2017

2.9

2.9

0.6

2018

3.0

3.0

0.6

2019

3.0

3.0

0.6

2020

3.0

3.0

0.6

APPENDIX E
245

Table 100: Appliance Attributes for Miscellaneous Information Technology Equipment Unswitched
Year

On mode
Watts

Standby mode
Watts

Off mode
Watts

1966

6.0

6.0

0.0

1971

6.0

6.0

0.0

1976

6.0

6.0

0.0

1981

6.0

6.0

0.0

1986

6.0

6.0

0.0

1991

6.0

6.0

0.0

1992

6.0

6.0

0.0

1993

6.1

6.1

0.0

1994

6.3

6.3

0.0

1995

6.4

6.4

0.0

1996

6.5

6.5

0.0

1997

6.6

6.6

0.0

1998

6.8

6.8

0.0

1999

6.9

6.9

0.0

2000

7.0

7.0

0.0

2001

7.2

7.2

0.0

2002

7.4

7.4

0.0

2003

7.6

7.6

0.0

2004

7.8

7.8

0.0

2005

8.0

8.0

0.0

2006

8.2

8.2

0.0

2007

8.4

8.4

0.0

2008

8.6

8.6

0.0

2009

8.8

8.8

0.0

2010

9.0

9.0

0.0

2011

9.1

9.1

0.0

2012

9.2

9.2

0.0

2013

9.3

9.3

0.0

2014

9.4

9.4

0.0

2015

9.5

9.5

0.0

2016

9.6

9.6

0.0

2017

9.7

9.7

0.0

2018

9.8

9.8

0.0

2019

9.9

9.9

0.0

2020

10.0

10.0

0.0

MODEL INPUTS ATTRIBUTES


246

Table 101: Appliance Attributes for Miscellaneous Home Entertainment Equipment


Year

Active
Watts

Standby mode
Watts

Off mode
Watts

1966

3.0

0.0

0.0

1971

3.0

0.0

0.0

1976

3.0

0.0

0.0

1981

3.0

0.0

0.0

1986

3.0

0.0

0.0

1991

3.2

0.0

0.0

1992

3.2

0.0

0.0

1993

3.3

0.2

0.0

1994

3.5

0.3

0.1

1995

3.6

0.5

0.1

1996

3.8

0.6

0.1

1997

3.9

0.7

0.1

1998

4.0

0.7

0.1

1999

4.2

0.8

0.1

2000

4.3

0.9

0.1

2001

4.4

0.9

0.1

2002

4.5

0.9

0.1

2003

4.6

1.0

0.1

2004

4.7

1.0

0.1

2005

4.8

1.0

0.1

2006

4.8

1.0

0.1

2007

4.9

1.0

0.1

2008

4.9

1.0

0.1

2009

5.0

1.0

0.1

2010

5.0

1.0

0.1

2011

5.0

1.0

0.1

2012

5.0

1.0

0.1

2013

5.1

1.0

0.1

2014

5.1

1.0

0.1

2015

5.1

1.0

0.1

2016

5.1

1.0

0.1

2017

5.1

1.0

0.1

2018

5.2

1.0

0.1

2019

5.2

1.0

0.1

2020

5.2

1.0

0.1

APPENDIX E
247

Table 102: Appliance Attributes for Residential Lighting product efficiency


Year

Incandescent
L/Watt

QH
L/Watt

Linear Fl
L/Watt

CFL
L/Watt

1966

9.0

18.0

55.0

45.0

1971

9.4

18.8

56.9

46.9

1976

9.7

19.3

58.3

48.3

1981

9.8

19.6

59.0

49.0

1986

9.9

19.8

59.4

49.4

1991

10.0

19.9

59.8

49.8

1992

10.0

20.0

60.0

50.0

1993

10.1

20.2

60.3

50.5

1994

10.2

20.3

60.7

51.0

1995

10.3

20.5

61.0

51.5

1996

10.3

20.7

61.3

52.0

1997

10.4

20.8

61.7

52.5

1998

10.5

21.0

62.0

53.0

1999

10.5

21.1

62.3

53.2

2000

10.6

21.2

62.5

53.3

2001

10.6

21.3

62.8

53.5

2002

10.7

21.3

63.0

53.7

2003

10.7

21.4

63.3

53.8

2004

10.8

21.5

63.5

54.0

2005

10.8

21.6

63.8

54.2

2006

10.8

21.7

64.0

54.3

2007

10.9

21.8

64.3

54.5

2008

10.9

21.8

64.5

54.7

2009

11.0

21.9

64.8

54.8

2010

11.0

22.0

65.0

55.0

2011

11.1

22.1

65.0

55.5

2012

11.2

22.2

65.0

56.0

2013

11.3

22.3

65.0

56.5

2014

11.4

22.4

65.0

57.0

2015

11.5

22.5

65.0

57.5

2016

11.6

22.6

65.0

58.0

2017

11.7

22.7

65.0

58.5

2018

11.8

22.8

65.0

59.0

2019

11.9

22.9

65.0

59.5

2020

12.0

23.0

65.0

60.0

MODEL INPUTS ATTRIBUTES


248

Table 103: Appliance Attributes for Residential Lighting installation configuration


Lighting Density Living Areas

Lighting Density Non-Living Areas

Incandescent

QH

Linear
Fl

CFL

Indesc

Incandescent

QH

Linear
Fl

CFL

Indesc

Year

Lux

Lux

Lux

Lux

W/m2 W/m2 W/m2 W/m2

Year

Lux

Lux

Lux

Lux

W/m2 W/m2 W/m2 W/m2

1966

180

700

400

180

20.0

38.9

7.3

4.0

1966

120

400

200

120

13.3

22.2

3.6

2.7

1971

180

700

400

180

19.2

37.3

7.0

3.8

1971

120

400

200

120

12.8

21.3

3.5

2.6

1976

180

700

400

180

18.6

36.3

6.9

3.7

1976

120

400

200

120

12.4

20.7

3.4

2.5

1981

180

700

400

180

18.4

35.7

6.8

3.7

1981

120

400

200

120

12.2

20.4

3.4

2.4

1986

180

700

400

180

18.2

35.4

6.7

3.6

1986

120

400

200

120

12.1

20.2

3.4

2.4

1991

180

700

400

180

18.1

35.1

6.7

3.6

1991

120

400

200

120

12.0

20.1

3.3

2.4

1992

180

700

400

180

18.0

35.0

6.7

3.6

1992

120

400

200

120

12.0

20.0

3.3

2.4

1993

180

700

400

180

17.9

34.7

6.6

3.6

1993

120

400

200

120

11.9

19.8

3.3

2.4

1994

180

700

400

180

17.7

34.4

6.6

3.5

1994

120

400

200

120

11.8

19.7

3.3

2.4

1995

180

700

400

180

17.6

34.1

6.6

3.5

1995

120

400

200

120

11.7

19.5

3.3

2.3

1996

180

700

400

180

17.4

33.9

6.5

3.5

1996

120

400

200

120

11.6

19.4

3.3

2.3

1997

180

700

400

180

17.3

33.6

6.5

3.4

1997

120

400

200

120

11.5

19.2

3.2

2.3

1998

180

700

400

180

17.1

33.3

6.5

3.4

1998

120

400

200

120

11.4

19.0

3.2

2.3

1999

180

700

400

180

17.1

33.2

6.4

3.4

1999

120

400

200

120

11.4

19.0

3.2

2.3

2000

180

700

400

180

17.0

33.1

6.4

3.4

2000

120

400

200

120

11.3

18.9

3.2

2.3

2001

180

700

400

180

16.9

32.9

6.4

3.4

2001

120

400

200

120

11.3

18.8

3.2

2.2

2002

180

700

400

180

16.9

32.8

6.3

3.4

2002

120

400

200

120

11.3

18.8

3.2

2.2

2003

180

700

400

180

16.8

32.7

6.3

3.3

2003

120

400

200

120

11.2

18.7

3.2

2.2

2004

180

700

400

180

16.7

32.6

6.3

3.3

2004

120

400

200

120

11.2

18.6

3.1

2.2

2005

180

700

400

180

16.7

32.4

6.3

3.3

2005

120

400

200

120

11.1

18.5

3.1

2.2

2006

180

700

400

180

16.6

32.3

6.3

3.3

2006

120

400

200

120

11.1

18.5

3.1

2.2

2007

180

700

400

180

16.6

32.2

6.2

3.3

2007

120

400

200

120

11.0

18.4

3.1

2.2

2008

180

700

400

180

16.5

32.1

6.2

3.3

2008

120

400

200

120

11.0

18.3

3.1

2.2

2009

180

700

400

180

16.4

31.9

6.2

3.3

2009

120

400

200

120

11.0

18.3

3.1

2.2

2010

180

700

400

180

16.4

31.8

6.2

3.3

2010

120

400

200

120

10.9

18.2

3.1

2.2

2011

180

700

400

180

16.2

31.7

6.2

3.2

2011

120

400

200

120

10.8

18.1

3.1

2.2

2012

180

700

400

180

16.1

31.5

6.2

3.2

2012

120

400

200

120

10.7

18.0

3.1

2.1

2013

180

700

400

180

15.9

31.4

6.2

3.2

2013

120

400

200

120

10.6

17.9

3.1

2.1

2014

180

700

400

180

15.8

31.3

6.2

3.2

2014

120

400

200

120

10.5

17.9

3.1

2.1

2015

180

700

400

180

15.7

31.1

6.2

3.1

2015

120

400

200

120

10.4

17.8

3.1

2.1

2016

180

700

400

180

15.5

31.0

6.2

3.1

2016

120

400

200

120

10.3

17.7

3.1

2.1

2017

180

700

400

180

15.4

30.8

6.2

3.1

2017

120

400

200

120

10.3

17.6

3.1

2.1

2018

180

700

400

180

15.3

30.7

6.2

3.1

2018

120

400

200

120

10.2

17.5

3.1

2.0

2019

180

700

400

180

15.1

30.6

6.2

3.0

2019

120

400

200

120

10.1

17.5

3.1

2.0

2020

180

700

400

180

15.0

30.4

6.2

3.0

2020

120

400

200

120

10.0

17.4

3.1

2.0

QH

Linear
Fl

CFL

QH

Linear
Fl

CFL

APPENDIX E
249

Table 104: Miscellaneous Electricity Consumption


Year

Misc.
kWh/year

Wat Bed
kWh/year

1966

200

750

1971

200

750

1976

200

750

1981

200

750

1986

200

750

1991

200

750

1992

200

750

1993

200

750

1994

200

750

1995

200

750

1996

200

750

1997

200

750

1998

200

750

1999

200

750

2000

200

750

2001

200

750

2002

200

750

2003

200

750

2004

200

750

2005

200

750

2006

200

750

2007

200

750

2008

200

750

2009

200

750

2010

200

750

2011

200

750

2012

200

750

2013

200

750

2014

200

750

2015

200

750

2016

200

750

2017

200

750

2018

200

750

2019

200

750

2020

200

750

MODEL INPUTS ATTRIBUTES


250

Table 105: Pool Electricity Consumption


Year

NSW
kWh/year

VIC
kWh/year

QLD
kWh/year

SA
kWh/year

WA
kWh/year

TAS
kWh/year

NT
kWh/year

ACT
kWh/year

1966

1984

1981

2019

2006

1875

1997

1999

2022

1971

1984

1981

2019

2006

1875

1997

1999

2022

1976

1984

1981

2019

2006

1875

1997

1999

2022

1981

1984

1981

2019

2006

1875

1997

1999

2022

1986

1984

1981

2019

2006

1875

1997

1999

2022

1987

1987

1989

2021

2007

1876

2001

2003

2024

1988

1991

1997

2024

2009

1878

2005

2006

2025

1989

1994

2005

2026

2011

1879

2009

2010

2027

1990

1997

2013

2029

2013

1881

2013

2013

2029

1991

2000

2017

2030

2016

1882

2017

2017

2030

1992

2003

2021

2032

2019

1883

2021

2021

2032

1993

2006

2025

2034

2022

1884

2025

2025

2034

1994

2009

2029

2036

2025

1885

2029

2029

2036

1995

2011

2033

2037

2028

1886

2033

2033

2037

1996

2014

2037

2039

2031

1887

2037

2037

2039

1997

2017

2041

2041

2035

1888

2041

2041

2041

1998

2020

2045

2043

2038

1889

2045

2045

2043

1999

2022

2049

2044

2041

1890

2049

2049

2044

2000

2025

2053

2046

2044

1891

2053

2053

2046

2001

2028

2057

2048

2047

1892

2057

2057

2048

2002

2031

2061

2050

2050

1893

2061

2061

2050

2003

2034

2065

2052

2053

1894

2065

2065

2052

2004

2037

2069

2054

2056

1895

2069

2069

2054

2005

2039

2073

2055

2058

1897

2073

2073

2055

2006

2036

2070

2050

2054

1892

2070

2070

2050

2007

2033

2067

2045

2050

1888

2067

2067

2045

2008

2030

2064

2040

2046

1884

2064

2064

2040

2009

2027

2060

2035

2041

1880

2060

2060

2035

2010

2023

2057

2030

2037

1875

2057

2057

2030

2011

2020

2054

2025

2032

1871

2054

2054

2025

2012

2017

2051

2020

2028

1867

2051

2051

2020

2013

2013

2048

2014

2023

1863

2048

2048

2014

2014

2010

2044

2009

2019

1859

2044

2044

2009

2015

2006

2041

2004

2014

1854

2041

2041

2004

2016

2003

2038

1999

2009

1850

2038

2038

1999

2017

1999

2034

1994

2005

1846

2034

2034

1994

2018

1996

2031

1989

2000

1841

2031

2031

1989

2019

1992

2027

1984

1995

1837

2027

2027

1984

2020

1989

2024

1978

1991

1833

2024

2024

1978

See GWA Pool and Spa paper for details

APPENDIX E
251

Table 106: Pool Mains Gas Consumption


Year

NSW
GJ/year

VIC
GJ/year

QLD
GJ/year

SA
GJ/year

WA
GJ/year

TAS
GJ/year

NT
GJ/year

ACT
GJ/year

1966

1.4

3.8

0.3

2.8

0.0

3.9

3.9

0.3

1971

1.4

3.8

0.3

2.8

0.0

3.9

3.9

0.3

1976

1.4

3.8

0.3

2.8

0.0

3.9

3.9

0.3

1981

1.4

3.8

0.3

2.8

0.0

3.9

3.9

0.3

1986

1.4

3.8

0.3

2.8

0.0

3.9

3.9

0.3

1987

1.5

3.9

0.3

2.8

0.0

3.9

3.9

0.3

1988

1.5

3.9

0.3

2.8

0.0

4.0

4.0

0.3

1989

1.5

4.0

0.3

2.9

0.0

4.0

4.0

0.3

1990

1.5

4.0

0.3

2.9

0.0

4.0

4.0

0.3

1991

1.5

4.0

0.3

2.9

0.0

4.0

4.0

0.3

1992

1.5

4.1

0.3

2.9

0.0

4.1

4.1

0.3

1993

1.6

4.1

0.3

2.9

0.0

4.1

4.1

0.3

1994

1.6

4.1

0.3

2.9

0.0

4.1

4.1

0.3

1995

1.6

4.1

0.4

3.0

0.0

4.1

4.1

0.4

1996

1.6

4.2

0.4

3.0

0.0

4.2

4.2

0.4

1997

1.6

4.2

0.4

3.0

0.0

4.2

4.2

0.4

1998

1.6

4.2

0.4

3.0

0.0

4.2

4.2

0.4

1999

1.6

4.2

0.4

3.0

0.0

4.2

4.2

0.4

2000

1.6

4.3

0.4

3.1

0.0

4.3

4.3

0.4

2001

1.6

4.3

0.4

3.1

0.0

4.3

4.3

0.4

2002

1.7

4.3

0.4

3.1

0.0

4.3

4.3

0.4

2003

1.7

4.3

0.4

3.1

0.0

4.3

4.3

0.4

2004

1.7

4.4

0.4

3.1

0.0

4.4

4.4

0.4

2005

1.7

4.4

0.4

3.1

0.0

4.4

4.4

0.4

2006

1.7

4.4

0.5

3.2

0.0

4.4

4.4

0.5

2007

1.7

4.4

0.5

3.2

0.0

4.4

4.4

0.5

2008

1.7

4.5

0.5

3.2

0.0

4.5

4.5

0.5

2009

1.7

4.5

0.5

3.2

0.0

4.5

4.5

0.5

2010

1.7

4.5

0.5

3.2

0.0

4.5

4.5

0.5

2011

1.8

4.5

0.5

3.2

0.0

4.5

4.5

0.5

2012

1.8

4.6

0.5

3.3

0.0

4.6

4.6

0.5

2013

1.8

4.6

0.5

3.3

0.0

4.6

4.6

0.5

2014

1.8

4.6

0.5

3.3

0.0

4.6

4.6

0.5

2015

1.8

4.6

0.5

3.3

0.0

4.6

4.6

0.5

2016

1.8

4.7

0.5

3.3

0.0

4.7

4.7

0.5

2017

1.8

4.7

0.6

3.4

0.0

4.7

4.7

0.6

2018

1.8

4.7

0.6

3.4

0.0

4.7

4.7

0.6

2019

1.8

4.7

0.6

3.4

0.0

4.7

4.7

0.6

2020

1.9

4.8

0.6

3.4

0.0

4.8

4.8

0.6

See GWA Pool and Spa paper for details

MODEL INPUTS ATTRIBUTES


252

Table 107: Spa Electricity Consumption


Year

NSW
kWh/year

VIC
kWh/year

QLD
kWh/year

SA
kWh/year

WA
kWh/year

TAS
kWh/year

NT
kWh/year

ACT
kWh/year

1966

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

1971

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

1976

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

1981

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

1986

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

1987

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

1988

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

1989

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

1990

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

1991

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

1992

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

1993

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

1994

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

1995

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

1996

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

1997

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

1998

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

1999

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

2000

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

2001

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

2002

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

2003

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

2004

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

2005

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

2006

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

2007

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

2008

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

2009

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

2010

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

2011

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

2012

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

2013

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

2014

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

2015

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

2016

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

2017

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

2018

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

2019

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

2020

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

591

See GWA Pool and Spa paper for details

APPENDIX E
253

Table 108: Spa Mains Gas Consumption


Year

NSW
GJ/year

VIC
GJ/year

QLD
GJ/year

SA
GJ/year

WA
GJ/year

TAS
GJ/year

NT
GJ/year

ACT
GJ/year

1966

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

1971

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

1976

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

1981

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

1986

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

1987

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

1988

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

1989

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

1990

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

1991

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

1992

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

1993

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

1994

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

1995

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

1996

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

1997

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

1998

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

1999

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

2000

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

2001

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

2002

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

2003

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

2004

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

2005

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

2006

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

2007

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

2008

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

2009

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

2010

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

2011

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

2012

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

2013

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

2014

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

2015

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

2016

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

2017

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

2018

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

2019

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

2020

11.8

4.7

8.5

6.3

6.3

4.7

2.4

14.1

See GWA Pool and Spa paper for details

MODEL INPUTS ATTRIBUTES


254

Table 109: Refrigerators Ownership (stock/households)


Year
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

NSW
1.221
1.222
1.224
1.225
1.226
1.228
1.229
1.230
1.232
1.233
1.235
1.236
1.237
1.239
1.240
1.241
1.241
1.242
1.242
1.243
1.243
1.243
1.243
1.243
1.243
1.243
1.242
1.242
1.242
1.256
1.269
1.283
1.296
1.310
1.311
1.313
1.314
1.331
1.348
1.364
1.376
1.385
1.391
1.396
1.399
1.401
1.403
1.405
1.407
1.409
1.411
1.413
1.415
1.417
1.419

VIC
1.152
1.155
1.158
1.161
1.164
1.167
1.170
1.173
1.177
1.180
1.183
1.186
1.189
1.192
1.195
1.198
1.201
1.203
1.206
1.209
1.212
1.214
1.216
1.218
1.221
1.223
1.225
1.227
1.229
1.236
1.243
1.251
1.258
1.265
1.268
1.272
1.275
1.279
1.282
1.286
1.289
1.293
1.296
1.299
1.302
1.305
1.308
1.311
1.314
1.316
1.318
1.321
1.323
1.325
1.327

QLD
1.197
1.203
1.209
1.215
1.221
1.227
1.234
1.240
1.246
1.252
1.258
1.264
1.270
1.276
1.282
1.287
1.292
1.298
1.301
1.304
1.308
1.311
1.314
1.317
1.320
1.323
1.326
1.329
1.332
1.344
1.356
1.368
1.380
1.392
1.386
1.380
1.374
1.400
1.426
1.452
1.470
1.482
1.492
1.498
1.500
1.501
1.503
1.504
1.505
1.506
1.507
1.508
1.509
1.509
1.510

SA
1.282
1.282
1.282
1.282
1.282
1.282
1.282
1.283
1.283
1.283
1.283
1.283
1.283
1.283
1.283
1.282
1.280
1.279
1.277
1.275
1.274
1.270
1.266
1.262
1.258
1.254
1.250
1.246
1.242
1.253
1.264
1.275
1.286
1.297
1.313
1.328
1.344
1.338
1.331
1.325
1.323
1.323
1.325
1.328
1.333
1.337
1.341
1.344
1.346
1.348
1.349
1.349
1.349
1.349
1.349

WA
1.279
1.281
1.282
1.283
1.284
1.285
1.286
1.287
1.288
1.289
1.290
1.291
1.292
1.293
1.295
1.295
1.296
1.296
1.294
1.292
1.290
1.288
1.287
1.285
1.284
1.282
1.281
1.279
1.278
1.289
1.300
1.310
1.321
1.332
1.349
1.365
1.382
1.398
1.413
1.429
1.440
1.448
1.454
1.458
1.459
1.460
1.461
1.462
1.463
1.465
1.466
1.468
1.470
1.472
1.474

TAS
1.014
1.021
1.028
1.035
1.042
1.049
1.056
1.063
1.070
1.077
1.084
1.091
1.098
1.105
1.112
1.119
1.126
1.134
1.137
1.142
1.146
1.150
1.154
1.158
1.163
1.167
1.171
1.175
1.179
1.186
1.193
1.201
1.208
1.215
1.216
1.217
1.218
1.246
1.274
1.302
1.321
1.334
1.344
1.351
1.353
1.355
1.357
1.358
1.360
1.361
1.362
1.364
1.365
1.366
1.367

NT
1.225
1.230
1.235
1.240
1.245
1.249
1.254
1.259
1.264
1.269
1.274
1.279
1.284
1.289
1.295
1.302
1.309
1.316
1.317
1.319
1.320
1.322
1.324
1.326
1.328
1.330
1.332
1.334
1.336
1.349
1.362
1.376
1.389
1.402
1.425
1.447
1.470
1.454
1.437
1.421
1.410
1.402
1.396
1.391
1.390
1.389
1.388
1.387
1.386
1.385
1.384
1.383
1.382
1.381
1.380

ACT
1.135
1.137
1.140
1.143
1.145
1.148
1.151
1.154
1.156
1.159
1.162
1.164
1.167
1.170
1.173
1.176
1.179
1.184
1.184
1.186
1.188
1.192
1.195
1.198
1.201
1.204
1.208
1.211
1.214
1.230
1.247
1.263
1.280
1.296
1.289
1.283
1.276
1.293
1.311
1.328
1.341
1.350
1.358
1.364
1.367
1.370
1.373
1.375
1.378
1.380
1.381
1.383
1.385
1.386
1.387

Australia
1.201
1.204
1.206
1.209
1.212
1.215
1.217
1.220
1.222
1.225
1.228
1.231
1.233
1.236
1.239
1.241
1.243
1.245
1.247
1.248
1.250
1.251
1.252
1.252
1.253
1.254
1.255
1.256
1.257
1.269
1.280
1.291
1.302
1.314
1.317
1.320
1.324
1.337
1.351
1.364
1.374
1.382
1.388
1.393
1.395
1.398
1.400
1.403
1.405
1.407
1.409
1.410
1.412
1.414
1.416

APPENDIX F
MODEL INPUTS OWNERSHIP

255

256

MODEL INPUTS OWNERSHIP

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

Actual

2010

Actual

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

SATURATION

PENETRATION

Figure 129: Refrigerator Penetration


100%
NSW

VIC

99%
QLD

SA

98%
WA

TAS

97%
NT

ACT

96%
Forecast

95%

YEAR

Figure 130: Refrigerator Saturation

1.6
NSW

1.5
VIC

QLD

1.4
SA

1.3
WA

TAS

1.2
NT

ACT

1.1
Forecast

1.0

YEAR

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

Actual

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

OWNERSHIP

Figure 131: Refrigerator Ownership


1.6
NSW

1.5
VIC

QLD

1.4
SA

WA

1.3
TAS

1.2
NT

ACT

1.1
Forecast

1.0

YEAR

APPENDIX F

257

Table 110: Separate Freezers Ownership (stock/households)


Year
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

NSW
0.237
0.251
0.266
0.281
0.296
0.311
0.326
0.341
0.356
0.371
0.382
0.394
0.405
0.417
0.428
0.440
0.451
0.462
0.468
0.473
0.479
0.475
0.471
0.468
0.464
0.460
0.456
0.452
0.448
0.441
0.434
0.426
0.419
0.412
0.403
0.393
0.384
0.379
0.375
0.370
0.363
0.357
0.351
0.345
0.339
0.334
0.328
0.322
0.316
0.310
0.304
0.298
0.291
0.285
0.278

VIC
0.199
0.215
0.232
0.249
0.266
0.283
0.300
0.317
0.334
0.352
0.365
0.379
0.393
0.407
0.421
0.432
0.442
0.453
0.456
0.459
0.462
0.466
0.469
0.473
0.477
0.480
0.484
0.487
0.491
0.478
0.465
0.452
0.439
0.426
0.412
0.397
0.383
0.383
0.384
0.384
0.378
0.371
0.364
0.357
0.348
0.340
0.333
0.325
0.318
0.311
0.304
0.297
0.290
0.284
0.277

QLD
0.346
0.356
0.365
0.374
0.383
0.392
0.401
0.411
0.420
0.429
0.441
0.453
0.465
0.477
0.489
0.501
0.514
0.527
0.525
0.523
0.522
0.519
0.517
0.514
0.512
0.509
0.506
0.504
0.501
0.492
0.483
0.474
0.465
0.456
0.448
0.441
0.433
0.431
0.430
0.428
0.424
0.420
0.416
0.411
0.406
0.401
0.397
0.392
0.388
0.383
0.379
0.375
0.370
0.366
0.362

MODEL INPUTS OWNERSHIP


258

SA
0.361
0.369
0.377
0.385
0.393
0.402
0.410
0.418
0.427
0.435
0.447
0.459
0.471
0.484
0.496
0.515
0.535
0.554
0.554
0.554
0.554
0.550
0.547
0.544
0.540
0.537
0.534
0.530
0.527
0.517
0.507
0.496
0.486
0.476
0.477
0.479
0.480
0.469
0.459
0.448
0.441
0.436
0.433
0.430
0.430
0.429
0.428
0.426
0.423
0.419
0.415
0.410
0.405
0.400
0.395

WA
0.389
0.394
0.399
0.404
0.409
0.414
0.419
0.424
0.429
0.434
0.439
0.444
0.448
0.453
0.458
0.468
0.479
0.490
0.489
0.487
0.485
0.489
0.492
0.495
0.498
0.501
0.505
0.508
0.511
0.495
0.479
0.462
0.446
0.430
0.425
0.420
0.415
0.429
0.444
0.458
0.466
0.470
0.473
0.473
0.471
0.468
0.466
0.465
0.463
0.462
0.461
0.460
0.460
0.459
0.459

TAS
0.480
0.491
0.502
0.513
0.524
0.536
0.547
0.558
0.570
0.582
0.595
0.608
0.621
0.635
0.648
0.663
0.678
0.694
0.709
0.723
0.738
0.738
0.738
0.738
0.738
0.738
0.738
0.738
0.738
0.730
0.721
0.713
0.705
0.697
0.689
0.682
0.674
0.671
0.668
0.664
0.653
0.642
0.632
0.622
0.612
0.603
0.594
0.585
0.578
0.571
0.564
0.558
0.552
0.546
0.541

NT
0.570
0.581
0.592
0.603
0.615
0.626
0.638
0.649
0.661
0.673
0.673
0.672
0.672
0.672
0.672
0.667
0.661
0.656
0.655
0.653
0.651
0.636
0.622
0.607
0.593
0.578
0.563
0.549
0.534
0.514
0.495
0.475
0.456
0.438
0.429
0.419
0.409
0.391
0.373
0.356
0.348
0.341
0.335
0.329
0.325
0.320
0.315
0.309
0.303
0.297
0.290
0.284
0.277
0.270
0.263

ACT
0.254
0.266
0.278
0.291
0.303
0.315
0.328
0.340
0.353
0.365
0.376
0.386
0.397
0.408
0.418
0.429
0.439
0.450
0.469
0.488
0.507
0.497
0.487
0.477
0.467
0.456
0.446
0.436
0.426
0.410
0.395
0.379
0.364
0.348
0.329
0.309
0.290
0.305
0.321
0.336
0.346
0.353
0.358
0.361
0.361
0.360
0.360
0.359
0.358
0.357
0.356
0.355
0.353
0.352
0.350

Australia
0.272
0.285
0.299
0.312
0.325
0.339
0.352
0.365
0.379
0.392
0.404
0.416
0.428
0.440
0.451
0.463
0.476
0.488
0.491
0.494
0.498
0.497
0.495
0.494
0.493
0.492
0.491
0.490
0.489
0.479
0.468
0.458
0.447
0.437
0.428
0.419
0.410
0.409
0.407
0.406
0.402
0.397
0.392
0.388
0.382
0.377
0.372
0.367
0.361
0.356
0.351
0.346
0.341
0.336
0.331

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

Actual

2010

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

Actual

2008

2006

2004

1.18

2002

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

10%

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

SATURATION

PENETRATION

Figure 132: Freezer Penetration

80%
NSW

70%
VIC

60%
QLD

50%
SA

40%
WA

TAS

30%
NT

20%
ACT

Forecast

0%

YEAR

Figure 133: Freezer Saturation

Forecast

NSW

1.16
VIC

1.14
QLD

1.12
SA

1.10
WA

1.08
TAS

1.06
NT

1.04
ACT

1.02

1.00

YEAR

APPENDIX F

259

OWNERSHIP

Figure 134: Freezers Ownership


0.8

NSW

0.7

VIC
QLD

0.6

SA
0.5

WA

0.4

TAS

0.3

NT
ACT

0.2
0.1

Actual

Forecast

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

0.0

YEAR

MODEL INPUTS OWNERSHIP


260

Table 111: Air Conditioners (all types) Ownership (stock/households)


Year
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

NSW
0.115
0.123
0.132
0.140
0.148
0.163
0.177
0.192
0.206
0.221
0.236
0.251
0.265
0.281
0.296
0.306
0.317
0.327
0.342
0.357
0.372
0.371
0.369
0.368
0.367
0.365
0.364
0.362
0.361
0.354
0.348
0.341
0.335
0.328
0.391
0.454
0.517
0.564
0.612
0.660
0.695
0.725
0.752
0.776
0.795
0.812
0.827
0.840
0.851
0.860
0.867
0.873
0.878
0.883
0.886

VIC
0.072
0.080
0.088
0.096
0.104
0.121
0.138
0.155
0.172
0.189
0.207
0.224
0.242
0.259
0.277
0.316
0.356
0.396
0.412
0.429
0.446
0.442
0.439
0.436
0.433
0.430
0.427
0.423
0.420
0.436
0.452
0.468
0.484
0.500
0.535
0.569
0.604
0.637
0.670
0.704
0.729
0.750
0.768
0.784
0.797
0.809
0.820
0.830
0.839
0.848
0.855
0.862
0.868
0.874
0.880

QLD
0.057
0.063
0.070
0.076
0.083
0.092
0.102
0.111
0.121
0.131
0.141
0.151
0.162
0.172
0.183
0.192
0.201
0.210
0.225
0.240
0.255
0.255
0.255
0.254
0.254
0.253
0.253
0.253
0.252
0.275
0.298
0.321
0.345
0.369
0.439
0.510
0.581
0.687
0.795
0.904
0.984
1.047
1.100
1.144
1.172
1.198
1.223
1.246
1.267
1.286
1.304
1.320
1.335
1.351
1.365

SA
0.367
0.377
0.386
0.395
0.405
0.420
0.435
0.450
0.465
0.481
0.496
0.512
0.528
0.543
0.559
0.607
0.655
0.704
0.710
0.716
0.722
0.723
0.724
0.725
0.726
0.727
0.728
0.729
0.730
0.713
0.697
0.680
0.664
0.647
0.741
0.834
0.926
0.946
0.966
0.986
1.002
1.015
1.026
1.036
1.042
1.048
1.053
1.058
1.062
1.065
1.067
1.069
1.071
1.072
1.073

WA
0.302
0.315
0.327
0.339
0.352
0.360
0.368
0.376
0.384
0.393
0.401
0.409
0.418
0.426
0.435
0.434
0.433
0.432
0.447
0.461
0.476
0.471
0.467
0.462
0.458
0.453
0.449
0.444
0.439
0.461
0.483
0.505
0.527
0.548
0.604
0.661
0.717
0.762
0.807
0.853
0.888
0.918
0.944
0.967
0.985
1.001
1.016
1.030
1.042
1.053
1.063
1.071
1.079
1.087
1.094

TAS
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.003
0.006
0.009
0.008
0.006
0.005
0.008
0.010
0.013
0.015
0.018
0.020
0.023
0.025
0.025
0.025
0.026
0.026
0.026
0.054
0.082
0.111
0.146
0.182
0.218
0.248
0.275
0.300
0.324
0.345
0.363
0.378
0.392
0.403
0.411
0.418
0.422
0.426
0.429
0.430

NT
0.260
0.285
0.311
0.338
0.365
0.402
0.440
0.478
0.518
0.558
0.598
0.639
0.681
0.724
0.767
0.809
0.853
0.897
0.933
0.970
1.008
1.035
1.063
1.091
1.119
1.147
1.176
1.205
1.234
1.304
1.376
1.449
1.524
1.601
1.643
1.685
1.727
1.811
1.896
1.982
2.045
2.100
2.151
2.198
2.238
2.276
2.310
2.342
2.370
2.396
2.419
2.440
2.460
2.479
2.496

ACT
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.026
0.031
0.045
0.059
0.073
0.087
0.101
0.116
0.130
0.145
0.159
0.174
0.201
0.228
0.256
0.277
0.298
0.319
0.303
0.287
0.270
0.254
0.238
0.221
0.204
0.187
0.194
0.200
0.207
0.214
0.220
0.253
0.286
0.320
0.387
0.453
0.519
0.569
0.608
0.639
0.664
0.677
0.690
0.702
0.712
0.721
0.730
0.737
0.743
0.749
0.755
0.760

Australia
0.128
0.136
0.145
0.153
0.162
0.176
0.190
0.204
0.218
0.232
0.246
0.261
0.275
0.290
0.304
0.325
0.346
0.368
0.382
0.396
0.410
0.408
0.407
0.405
0.403
0.401
0.399
0.397
0.395
0.401
0.408
0.415
0.422
0.430
0.488
0.546
0.604
0.656
0.708
0.762
0.801
0.834
0.863
0.888
0.907
0.924
0.940
0.954
0.967
0.979
0.989
0.997
1.006
1.014
1.021

APPENDIX F
261

PENETRATION

Figure 135: Air Conditioners Penetration


100%

NSW

90%

VIC

80%

QLD

70%

SA

60%

WA

50%

TAS

40%

NT

30%

ACT

20%

Actual

Forecast

10%

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

0%

YEAR

SATURATION

Figure 136: Air Conditioner Saturation

2.8

NSW

2.6

VIC

2.4

QLD

2.2

SA

2.0

WA
TAS

1.8

Actual

Forecast

NT

1.6

ACT

1.4
1.2

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

1.0

YEAR

MODEL INPUTS OWNERSHIP


262

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

Actual

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

OWNERSHIP (STOCK)

Figure 137: Air Conditioners Ownership


3.0
Forecast

NSW

2.5
VIC

QLD

2.0
SA

WA

1.5
TAS

1.0
NT

ACT

0.5

0.0

YEAR

APPENDIX F

263

Table 112: Share of Households by AC type Australia


Year
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

Evaporative
52.1%
51.1%
50.0%
49.0%
47.9%
46.9%
45.8%
44.8%
43.7%
42.7%
41.6%
40.6%
39.5%
38.5%
37.4%
34.1%
30.8%
27.5%
27.9%
28.4%
28.8%
27.7%
26.6%
25.5%
24.4%
23.4%
22.3%
21.2%
20.1%
20.5%
20.9%
21.3%
21.8%
22.2%
22.6%
23.0%
23.4%
23.1%
22.7%
22.4%
22.1%
21.9%
21.6%
21.3%
21.0%
20.7%
20.4%
20.2%
19.9%
19.6%
19.3%
19.0%
18.7%
18.5%
18.2%

Central RC
6.2%
6.1%
6.1%
6.0%
6.0%
5.9%
5.8%
5.8%
5.7%
5.6%
5.6%
5.5%
5.4%
5.4%
5.3%
5.5%
5.6%
5.7%
5.6%
5.5%
5.4%
5.6%
5.8%
6.0%
6.2%
6.4%
6.5%
6.7%
6.9%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
9.1%
9.6%
10.1%
10.7%
11.2%
11.7%
12.2%
12.7%
12.7%
12.8%
12.9%
12.9%
13.0%
13.0%
13.1%
13.2%
13.2%
13.3%
13.3%
13.4%
13.4%
13.5%
13.6%

MODEL INPUTS OWNERSHIP


264

Central CO
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.3%
1.4%
1.6%
1.6%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.6%
1.6%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.8%
1.6%
1.4%
1.3%
1.3%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%

Non duct RC
19.5%
20.5%
21.4%
22.4%
23.3%
24.2%
25.2%
26.1%
27.1%
28.0%
28.9%
29.9%
30.8%
31.8%
32.7%
34.9%
37.1%
39.3%
39.2%
39.1%
39.0%
39.7%
40.4%
41.1%
41.9%
42.6%
43.3%
44.0%
44.7%
44.0%
43.3%
42.6%
41.9%
41.1%
40.4%
39.7%
39.0%
41.0%
43.1%
45.1%
45.8%
46.5%
47.2%
48.0%
48.7%
49.4%
50.1%
50.8%
51.5%
52.3%
53.0%
53.7%
54.4%
55.1%
55.8%

Non duct CO
20.9%
21.0%
21.2%
21.4%
21.6%
21.8%
22.0%
22.1%
22.3%
22.5%
22.7%
22.9%
23.1%
23.2%
23.4%
24.2%
25.1%
25.9%
25.6%
25.3%
25.0%
25.3%
25.5%
25.7%
25.9%
26.1%
26.4%
26.6%
26.8%
26.5%
26.2%
26.0%
25.7%
25.4%
25.2%
24.9%
24.6%
22.6%
20.6%
18.6%
18.1%
17.6%
17.1%
16.6%
16.2%
15.7%
15.2%
14.7%
14.3%
13.8%
13.3%
12.8%
12.4%
11.9%
11.4%

Total
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%

60%

Non duct RC
Actual

Forecast

Non duct CO
50%

Evaporative
Central RC

40%

Central CO
30%

20%

10%

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

0%
1966

SHARE BY TYPE OF AIR CONDITIONER

Figure 138: Air Conditioner Share by Type

YEAR

APPENDIX F
265

Table 113: Evaporative Cooling Share


Year
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

NSW
47.2%
46.6%
46.1%
45.5%
44.9%
44.4%
43.8%
43.3%
42.7%
42.1%
41.6%
41.0%
40.5%
39.9%
39.3%
35.8%
32.2%
28.6%
28.8%
29.0%
29.1%
27.5%
26.0%
24.4%
22.8%
21.2%
19.6%
18.0%
16.4%
17.5%
18.5%
19.5%
20.5%
21.5%
18.7%
15.9%
13.1%
13.0%
13.0%
12.9%
12.6%
12.2%
11.9%
11.5%
11.1%
10.8%
10.4%
10.0%
9.7%
9.3%
9.0%
8.6%
8.2%
7.9%
7.5%

VIC
53.9%
52.8%
51.6%
50.5%
49.4%
48.2%
47.1%
46.0%
44.9%
43.7%
42.6%
41.5%
40.3%
39.2%
38.1%
34.6%
31.2%
27.7%
28.2%
28.7%
29.2%
27.8%
26.3%
24.9%
23.4%
22.0%
20.6%
19.1%
17.7%
19.2%
20.8%
22.3%
23.9%
25.5%
27.3%
29.2%
31.1%
31.5%
31.9%
32.3%
32.4%
32.5%
32.6%
32.7%
32.8%
33.0%
33.1%
33.2%
33.3%
33.4%
33.5%
33.7%
33.8%
33.9%
34.0%

QLD
75.6%
74.2%
72.7%
71.3%
69.9%
68.5%
67.0%
65.6%
64.2%
62.7%
61.3%
59.9%
58.4%
57.0%
55.6%
49.7%
43.7%
37.8%
40.0%
42.1%
44.2%
41.2%
38.2%
35.1%
32.1%
29.0%
26.0%
23.0%
19.9%
20.3%
20.7%
21.1%
21.5%
21.9%
18.6%
15.4%
12.1%
11.5%
10.8%
10.1%
9.7%
9.4%
9.1%
8.7%
8.4%
8.0%
7.7%
7.4%
7.0%
6.7%
6.4%
6.0%
5.7%
5.3%
5.0%

MODEL INPUTS OWNERSHIP


266

SA
33.3%
32.8%
32.2%
31.7%
31.1%
30.6%
30.1%
29.5%
29.0%
28.4%
27.9%
27.3%
26.8%
26.2%
25.7%
23.7%
21.7%
19.7%
20.1%
20.5%
20.9%
21.1%
21.4%
21.7%
22.0%
22.3%
22.6%
22.9%
23.2%
25.9%
28.5%
31.1%
33.7%
36.4%
34.0%
31.7%
29.4%
29.4%
29.5%
29.6%
29.5%
29.4%
29.3%
29.2%
29.0%
28.9%
28.8%
28.7%
28.6%
28.5%
28.4%
28.3%
28.2%
28.1%
28.0%

WA
48.8%
47.7%
46.6%
45.6%
44.5%
43.4%
42.4%
41.3%
40.2%
39.2%
38.1%
37.0%
35.9%
34.9%
33.8%
32.0%
30.3%
28.5%
27.4%
26.4%
25.3%
26.1%
26.8%
27.6%
28.3%
29.1%
29.8%
30.6%
31.3%
34.7%
38.2%
41.6%
45.0%
48.4%
45.5%
42.6%
39.8%
39.7%
39.7%
39.7%
39.5%
39.2%
39.0%
38.7%
38.5%
38.2%
38.0%
37.7%
37.5%
37.2%
37.0%
36.7%
36.5%
36.2%
36.0%

TAS
54.3%
54.3%
54.2%
54.1%
54.0%
53.9%
53.8%
53.7%
53.6%
53.6%
53.5%
53.4%
53.3%
53.2%
53.1%
43.1%
33.1%
23.1%
15.4%
7.7%
0.0%
4.2%
8.3%
12.5%
16.7%
20.8%
25.0%
29.2%
33.3%
30.0%
26.7%
23.3%
20.0%
16.7%
13.3%
10.0%
6.6%
6.6%
6.7%
6.7%
6.5%
6.3%
6.1%
6.0%
5.8%
5.6%
5.4%
5.2%
5.1%
4.9%
4.7%
4.5%
4.4%
4.2%
4.0%

NT
20.2%
20.4%
20.5%
20.7%
20.8%
21.0%
21.2%
21.3%
21.5%
21.6%
21.8%
22.0%
22.1%
22.3%
22.4%
21.9%
21.4%
20.8%
20.1%
19.4%
18.7%
18.9%
19.0%
19.2%
19.4%
19.6%
19.8%
20.0%
20.2%
19.7%
19.2%
18.7%
18.2%
17.7%
18.1%
18.4%
18.7%
18.3%
17.8%
17.4%
17.5%
17.6%
17.7%
17.8%
17.9%
18.0%
18.1%
18.2%
18.3%
18.5%
18.6%
18.7%
18.8%
18.9%
19.0%

ACT
61.2%
60.9%
60.7%
60.4%
60.1%
59.9%
59.6%
59.3%
59.0%
58.8%
58.5%
58.2%
57.9%
57.7%
57.4%
51.6%
45.8%
40.0%
42.9%
45.8%
48.7%
47.0%
45.3%
43.6%
41.9%
40.2%
38.5%
36.8%
35.1%
33.9%
32.8%
31.6%
30.4%
29.3%
28.9%
28.6%
28.3%
28.6%
28.8%
29.1%
29.0%
29.0%
28.9%
28.8%
28.7%
28.7%
28.6%
28.5%
28.4%
28.4%
28.3%
28.2%
28.1%
28.1%
28.0%

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

Actual

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

SHARE

Figure 139: Evaporative Cooling Share


80%
Forecast

NSW

70%
VIC

60%
QLD

50%
SA

WA

40%
TAS

30%
NT

20%
ACT

10%

0%

YEAR

APPENDIX F

267

Table 114: Central Reverse Cycle Share


Year
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

NSW
4.7%
4.9%
5.1%
5.3%
5.4%
5.6%
5.8%
6.0%
6.1%
6.3%
6.5%
6.7%
6.8%
7.0%
7.2%
7.1%
7.0%
7.0%
7.2%
7.4%
7.7%
8.0%
8.4%
8.8%
9.1%
9.5%
9.9%
10.2%
10.6%
10.9%
11.3%
11.7%
12.0%
12.4%
15.1%
17.9%
20.7%
21.5%
22.4%
23.3%
23.4%
23.5%
23.6%
23.8%
23.9%
24.0%
24.1%
24.2%
24.3%
24.4%
24.5%
24.7%
24.8%
24.9%
25.0%

VIC
8.4%
8.1%
7.9%
7.6%
7.4%
7.2%
6.9%
6.7%
6.4%
6.2%
5.9%
5.7%
5.4%
5.2%
4.9%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
4.5%
4.1%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
4.2%
4.6%
4.9%
5.3%
5.7%
4.8%
4.0%
3.2%
3.3%
3.5%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.4%
3.4%
3.4%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.2%
3.2%

QLD
0.0%
0.1%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.8%
0.9%
1.0%
1.1%
1.3%
1.4%
1.5%
1.6%
1.8%
2.1%
2.4%
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
2.9%
3.1%
3.3%
3.5%
3.7%
3.9%
4.1%
4.3%
4.8%
5.4%
6.0%
6.6%
7.1%
7.0%
6.8%
6.7%
6.8%
7.0%
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
6.9%
6.9%
6.9%
6.9%

MODEL INPUTS OWNERSHIP


268

SA
3.3%
3.4%
3.5%
3.5%
3.6%
3.6%
3.7%
3.8%
3.8%
3.9%
3.9%
4.0%
4.1%
4.1%
4.2%
4.6%
5.0%
5.4%
5.2%
4.9%
4.6%
5.1%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
6.9%
7.4%
7.9%
8.3%
8.9%
9.4%
10.0%
10.6%
11.1%
11.7%
12.2%
12.8%
14.0%
15.3%
16.6%
16.9%
17.2%
17.5%
17.8%
18.0%
18.3%
18.6%
18.9%
19.2%
19.5%
19.8%
20.1%
20.4%
20.7%
21.0%

WA
9.8%
9.5%
9.2%
8.9%
8.6%
8.3%
8.0%
7.7%
7.4%
7.1%
6.8%
6.5%
6.2%
5.9%
5.6%
5.7%
5.7%
5.8%
5.5%
5.2%
4.9%
4.8%
4.7%
4.6%
4.6%
4.5%
4.4%
4.3%
4.2%
4.6%
5.0%
5.4%
5.8%
6.2%
7.6%
8.9%
10.3%
10.1%
9.9%
9.7%
9.7%
9.7%
9.7%
9.7%
9.6%
9.6%
9.6%
9.6%
9.6%
9.6%
9.6%
9.5%
9.5%
9.5%
9.5%

TAS
32.6%
32.5%
32.4%
32.3%
32.2%
32.1%
32.0%
31.9%
31.8%
31.7%
31.6%
31.5%
31.4%
31.3%
31.3%
28.5%
25.8%
23.1%
15.4%
7.7%
0.0%
2.2%
4.5%
6.7%
9.0%
11.2%
13.5%
15.7%
17.9%
17.3%
16.7%
16.1%
15.4%
14.8%
13.6%
12.4%
11.2%
13.5%
15.8%
18.1%
18.3%
18.4%
18.5%
18.6%
18.8%
18.9%
19.0%
19.1%
19.3%
19.4%
19.5%
19.6%
19.8%
19.9%
20.0%

NT
18.2%
17.8%
17.3%
16.9%
16.5%
16.0%
15.6%
15.2%
14.8%
14.3%
13.9%
13.5%
13.0%
12.6%
12.2%
10.5%
8.9%
7.2%
7.4%
7.6%
7.8%
7.1%
6.4%
5.8%
5.1%
4.4%
3.7%
3.0%
2.3%
2.4%
2.6%
2.7%
2.9%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%

ACT
6.1%
6.3%
6.4%
6.6%
6.7%
6.9%
7.0%
7.2%
7.3%
7.5%
7.6%
7.8%
7.9%
8.0%
8.2%
8.7%
9.2%
9.7%
11.9%
14.2%
16.4%
15.9%
15.4%
14.8%
14.3%
13.8%
13.3%
12.8%
12.3%
13.2%
14.2%
15.2%
16.2%
17.1%
17.6%
18.1%
18.6%
18.3%
18.1%
17.8%
18.0%
18.2%
18.4%
18.6%
18.8%
18.9%
19.1%
19.3%
19.5%
19.7%
19.9%
20.0%
20.2%
20.4%
20.6%

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

Actual

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

SHARE

Figure 140: Central Reverse Cycle Share


35%
Forecast

NSW

30%
VIC

25%
QLD

SA

20%
WA

15%
TAS

NT

10%
ACT

5%

0%

YEAR

APPENDIX F

269

Table 115: Central Cooling Only Share


Year
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

NSW
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.9%
0.9%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%

VIC
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.5%
1.6%
1.6%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.4%
1.5%
1.6%
1.7%
1.8%
1.8%
1.9%
2.0%
2.2%
2.4%
2.6%
2.8%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.5%
2.3%
2.1%
2.1%
2.1%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%

QLD
2.4%
2.4%
2.3%
2.3%
2.2%
2.2%
2.2%
2.1%
2.1%
2.0%
2.0%
1.9%
1.9%
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
1.6%
1.5%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
0.9%
0.8%
0.7%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.7%
0.8%
1.0%
1.3%
1.5%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%

MODEL INPUTS OWNERSHIP


270

SA
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
0.8%
0.9%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.8%
1.0%
1.3%
1.3%
1.4%
1.5%
1.5%
1.6%
1.6%
1.7%
1.7%
1.8%
1.8%
1.9%
1.9%
2.0%
2.0%
2.1%
2.1%
2.2%
2.2%

WA
1.2%
1.3%
1.4%
1.5%
1.5%
1.6%
1.7%
1.8%
1.8%
1.9%
2.0%
2.1%
2.2%
2.2%
2.3%
3.0%
3.6%
4.3%
4.6%
4.8%
5.1%
5.1%
5.0%
5.0%
4.9%
4.9%
4.8%
4.8%
4.8%
5.2%
5.6%
6.1%
6.5%
7.0%
5.8%
4.6%
3.4%
3.2%
3.0%
2.7%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.5%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.3%
2.3%
2.2%
2.2%
2.1%
2.1%

TAS
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.6%
1.3%
1.9%
2.6%
3.2%
3.8%
4.5%
5.1%
4.9%
4.8%
4.6%
4.4%
4.2%
2.8%
1.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

NT
5.1%
5.2%
5.3%
5.5%
5.6%
5.8%
5.9%
6.1%
6.2%
6.3%
6.5%
6.6%
6.8%
6.9%
7.1%
8.4%
9.7%
11.1%
15.0%
18.9%
22.9%
20.6%
18.2%
15.9%
13.6%
11.3%
9.0%
6.6%
4.3%
4.6%
4.8%
5.1%
5.4%
5.6%
5.2%
4.8%
4.4%
2.9%
1.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

ACT
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.3%
0.4%
0.6%
0.7%
0.9%
1.0%
1.2%
1.3%
1.4%
1.4%
1.5%
1.6%
1.3%
0.9%
0.6%
0.9%
1.3%
1.7%
1.7%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

Actual

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

SHARE

Figure 141: Central Cooling Only Share


25%
NSW

Forecast

VIC

20%
QLD

SA

15%
WA

TAS

10%
NT

ACT

5%

0%

YEAR

APPENDIX F

271

Table 116: Non-ducted Reverse Cycle Share


Year
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

NSW
28.3%
28.8%
29.4%
29.9%
30.4%
31.0%
31.5%
32.1%
32.6%
33.1%
33.7%
34.2%
34.7%
35.3%
35.8%
39.4%
43.1%
46.7%
46.7%
46.7%
46.8%
48.2%
49.7%
51.1%
52.6%
54.1%
55.5%
57.0%
58.5%
56.6%
54.7%
52.7%
50.8%
48.9%
50.4%
51.8%
53.3%
54.2%
55.2%
56.1%
56.5%
57.0%
57.5%
57.9%
58.4%
58.8%
59.3%
59.8%
60.2%
60.7%
61.2%
61.6%
62.1%
62.5%
63.0%

VIC
12.0%
13.1%
14.1%
15.2%
16.3%
17.4%
18.5%
19.6%
20.7%
21.7%
22.8%
23.9%
25.0%
26.1%
27.2%
29.0%
30.8%
32.7%
32.8%
32.9%
33.0%
33.8%
34.7%
35.6%
36.4%
37.3%
38.1%
39.0%
39.9%
37.1%
34.3%
31.6%
28.8%
26.1%
26.9%
27.7%
28.5%
30.3%
32.0%
33.8%
34.4%
35.0%
35.6%
36.2%
36.9%
37.5%
38.1%
38.7%
39.3%
39.9%
40.5%
41.2%
41.8%
42.4%
43.0%

QLD
9.8%
10.6%
11.5%
12.3%
13.2%
14.0%
14.9%
15.7%
16.6%
17.4%
18.3%
19.1%
20.0%
20.8%
21.7%
24.8%
27.8%
30.9%
29.9%
28.8%
27.8%
28.6%
29.4%
30.3%
31.1%
31.9%
32.8%
33.6%
34.4%
31.1%
27.8%
24.5%
21.2%
18.0%
26.1%
34.3%
42.4%
46.8%
51.2%
55.6%
56.7%
57.8%
58.9%
60.0%
61.1%
62.2%
63.2%
64.3%
65.4%
66.5%
67.6%
68.7%
69.8%
70.9%
72.0%

MODEL INPUTS OWNERSHIP


272

SA
27.8%
28.7%
29.6%
30.5%
31.4%
32.3%
33.2%
34.1%
35.1%
36.0%
36.9%
37.8%
38.7%
39.6%
40.5%
41.8%
43.0%
44.3%
44.3%
44.4%
44.4%
44.5%
44.5%
44.6%
44.6%
44.7%
44.7%
44.8%
44.9%
40.8%
36.8%
32.7%
28.7%
24.7%
29.1%
33.6%
38.0%
37.7%
37.5%
37.2%
37.5%
37.7%
38.0%
38.2%
38.5%
38.7%
39.0%
39.2%
39.5%
39.7%
40.0%
40.2%
40.5%
40.7%
41.0%

WA
17.1%
18.2%
19.3%
20.4%
21.5%
22.7%
23.8%
24.9%
26.0%
27.1%
28.3%
29.4%
30.5%
31.6%
32.7%
33.4%
34.1%
34.8%
35.4%
36.0%
36.6%
35.8%
34.9%
34.1%
33.3%
32.5%
31.7%
30.8%
30.0%
27.6%
25.2%
22.8%
20.4%
17.9%
20.6%
23.2%
25.9%
28.1%
30.3%
32.5%
33.1%
33.7%
34.3%
34.9%
35.5%
36.1%
36.7%
37.3%
37.9%
38.4%
39.0%
39.6%
40.2%
40.8%
41.4%

TAS
6.5%
6.5%
6.5%
6.5%
6.4%
6.4%
6.4%
6.4%
6.4%
6.3%
6.3%
6.3%
6.3%
6.3%
6.3%
7.2%
8.1%
9.0%
6.0%
3.0%
0.0%
4.8%
9.6%
14.4%
19.2%
24.0%
28.8%
33.7%
38.5%
40.2%
41.9%
43.6%
45.4%
47.1%
58.8%
70.5%
82.1%
79.1%
76.1%
73.1%
73.2%
73.3%
73.5%
73.6%
73.7%
73.8%
74.0%
74.1%
74.2%
74.4%
74.5%
74.6%
74.7%
74.9%
75.0%

NT
18.2%
18.1%
18.0%
17.9%
17.7%
17.6%
17.5%
17.4%
17.3%
17.2%
17.1%
17.0%
16.9%
16.8%
16.7%
16.4%
16.1%
15.9%
15.0%
14.1%
13.3%
13.2%
13.2%
13.1%
13.1%
13.1%
13.0%
13.0%
13.0%
10.7%
8.3%
6.0%
3.7%
1.4%
4.0%
6.7%
9.4%
11.8%
14.2%
16.6%
16.9%
17.3%
17.7%
18.0%
18.4%
18.7%
19.1%
19.5%
19.8%
20.2%
20.6%
20.9%
21.3%
21.6%
22.0%

ACT
20.4%
20.8%
21.2%
21.7%
22.1%
22.5%
22.9%
23.3%
23.7%
24.2%
24.6%
25.0%
25.4%
25.8%
26.2%
31.7%
37.2%
42.7%
38.4%
34.1%
29.7%
30.8%
32.0%
33.1%
34.2%
35.3%
36.4%
37.5%
38.6%
39.1%
39.5%
40.0%
40.5%
41.0%
39.6%
38.2%
36.9%
38.5%
40.2%
41.9%
42.1%
42.3%
42.5%
42.7%
42.9%
43.2%
43.4%
43.6%
43.8%
44.0%
44.2%
44.4%
44.6%
44.8%
45.0%

90%

Actual

NSW

Forecast

80%

VIC

70%

QLD

60%

SA
WA

50%

TAS

40%

NT

30%

ACT
20%
10%

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

0%
1966

SHARE

Figure 142: Non-ducted Reverse Cycle Share

YEAR

APPENDIX F
273

Table 117: Non-ducted Cooling Only Share


Year
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

NSW
18.9%
18.7%
18.6%
18.4%
18.3%
18.2%
18.0%
17.9%
17.7%
17.6%
17.4%
17.3%
17.1%
17.0%
16.9%
16.8%
16.8%
16.8%
16.4%
15.9%
15.4%
15.2%
15.0%
14.8%
14.6%
14.4%
14.2%
14.0%
13.8%
14.3%
14.9%
15.4%
15.9%
16.4%
15.1%
13.7%
12.4%
10.6%
8.8%
7.0%
6.8%
6.6%
6.4%
6.2%
6.0%
5.8%
5.6%
5.4%
5.2%
5.0%
4.8%
4.6%
4.4%
4.2%
4.0%

VIC
24.0%
24.3%
24.6%
24.9%
25.2%
25.5%
25.8%
26.1%
26.4%
26.7%
27.0%
27.4%
27.7%
28.0%
28.3%
29.8%
31.4%
33.0%
32.9%
32.8%
32.7%
33.2%
33.7%
34.2%
34.7%
35.2%
35.6%
36.1%
36.6%
37.3%
37.9%
38.6%
39.2%
39.8%
38.1%
36.3%
34.5%
32.4%
30.3%
28.2%
27.5%
26.8%
26.2%
25.5%
24.8%
24.1%
23.4%
22.8%
22.1%
21.4%
20.7%
20.0%
19.4%
18.7%
18.0%

QLD
12.2%
12.7%
13.2%
13.7%
14.2%
14.7%
15.2%
15.7%
16.2%
16.7%
17.2%
17.7%
18.2%
18.7%
19.2%
21.7%
24.3%
26.8%
25.9%
24.9%
24.0%
26.1%
28.2%
30.4%
32.5%
34.6%
36.7%
38.8%
40.9%
43.2%
45.5%
47.7%
50.0%
52.3%
47.3%
42.3%
37.3%
33.9%
30.4%
27.0%
26.3%
25.5%
24.8%
24.1%
23.3%
22.6%
21.9%
21.1%
20.4%
19.7%
18.9%
18.2%
17.5%
16.7%
16.0%

MODEL INPUTS OWNERSHIP


274

SA
35.6%
35.1%
34.7%
34.2%
33.8%
33.4%
32.9%
32.5%
32.0%
31.6%
31.1%
30.7%
30.3%
29.8%
29.4%
29.5%
29.7%
29.8%
29.6%
29.4%
29.2%
28.5%
27.7%
27.0%
26.2%
25.5%
24.7%
24.0%
23.2%
24.0%
24.9%
25.7%
26.5%
27.4%
24.4%
21.5%
18.6%
17.5%
16.3%
15.2%
14.7%
14.2%
13.7%
13.2%
12.7%
12.2%
11.7%
11.3%
10.8%
10.3%
9.8%
9.3%
8.8%
8.3%
7.8%

WA
23.2%
23.3%
23.5%
23.7%
23.8%
24.0%
24.2%
24.3%
24.5%
24.7%
24.8%
25.0%
25.2%
25.3%
25.5%
25.9%
26.2%
26.6%
27.1%
27.6%
28.1%
28.3%
28.5%
28.7%
28.9%
29.1%
29.3%
29.5%
29.7%
27.8%
26.0%
24.2%
22.4%
20.5%
20.6%
20.6%
20.7%
18.9%
17.1%
15.3%
15.0%
14.7%
14.5%
14.2%
13.9%
13.6%
13.3%
13.0%
12.7%
12.4%
12.2%
11.9%
11.6%
11.3%
11.0%

TAS
6.5%
6.7%
6.9%
7.1%
7.3%
7.5%
7.7%
7.9%
8.2%
8.4%
8.6%
8.8%
9.0%
9.2%
9.4%
21.2%
33.0%
44.9%
63.2%
81.6%
100.0%
88.1%
76.3%
64.4%
52.6%
40.7%
28.8%
17.0%
5.1%
7.5%
10.0%
12.4%
14.8%
17.2%
11.5%
5.7%
0.0%
0.7%
1.4%
2.1%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%

NT
38.4%
38.6%
38.9%
39.1%
39.3%
39.6%
39.8%
40.0%
40.3%
40.5%
40.7%
41.0%
41.2%
41.4%
41.7%
42.8%
43.9%
45.0%
42.5%
39.9%
37.3%
40.2%
43.1%
45.9%
48.8%
51.7%
54.5%
57.4%
60.2%
62.6%
65.0%
67.4%
69.9%
72.3%
70.7%
69.1%
67.6%
67.1%
66.6%
66.1%
65.6%
65.1%
64.6%
64.2%
63.7%
63.2%
62.7%
62.2%
61.8%
61.3%
60.8%
60.3%
59.9%
59.4%
58.9%

ACT
12.2%
12.0%
11.7%
11.4%
11.1%
10.8%
10.5%
10.2%
9.9%
9.6%
9.4%
9.1%
8.8%
8.5%
8.2%
8.0%
7.8%
7.6%
6.8%
6.0%
5.2%
6.1%
7.1%
8.1%
9.0%
10.0%
10.9%
11.9%
12.9%
12.5%
12.1%
11.8%
11.4%
11.0%
12.6%
14.2%
15.7%
13.6%
11.5%
9.4%
9.1%
8.8%
8.5%
8.2%
8.0%
7.7%
7.4%
7.1%
6.8%
6.5%
6.2%
5.9%
5.6%
5.3%
5.0%

SHARE

Figure 143: Non-ducted Cooling Only Share


120%

NSW
Actual

Forecast

VIC

100%
QLD
SA

80%

WA
60%

TAS
NT

40%

ACT

20%

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

0%

YEAR

3.5

NSW
Total All States in 2020 = 10.2 million units

VIC

3.0
Actual

Forecast

QLD

2.5

SA
WA

2.0

TAS
1.5

NT
ACT

1.0
0.5

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

0.0
1966

STOCK NUMBER (MILLIONS)

Figure 144: Air Conditioner Stock (All Types)

YEAR

APPENDIX F
275

Table 118: Clothes Washers Penetration (households with 1 or more of appliance)


Year
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

NSW
89.7%
89.8%
89.9%
89.9%
90.0%
90.1%
90.1%
90.2%
90.3%
90.4%
90.4%
90.5%
90.6%
90.6%
90.7%
90.8%
90.9%
91.0%
91.5%
91.9%
92.4%
92.4%
92.5%
92.5%
92.5%
92.5%
92.6%
92.6%
92.6%
92.8%
93.0%
93.3%
93.5%
93.7%
93.9%
94.2%
94.4%
94.8%
95.2%
95.6%
95.6%
95.6%
95.6%
95.7%
95.7%
95.7%
95.7%
95.7%
95.7%
95.7%
95.7%
95.8%
95.8%
95.8%
95.8%

VIC
89.3%
89.4%
89.4%
89.5%
89.5%
89.6%
89.6%
89.7%
89.7%
89.8%
89.8%
89.9%
89.9%
90.0%
90.0%
90.0%
90.0%
90.0%
90.6%
91.3%
91.9%
92.3%
92.7%
93.1%
93.5%
93.8%
94.2%
94.6%
95.0%
95.1%
95.1%
95.2%
95.2%
95.3%
95.2%
95.2%
95.1%
95.3%
95.6%
95.8%
95.8%
95.9%
95.9%
95.9%
95.9%
96.0%
96.0%
96.0%
96.0%
96.1%
96.1%
96.1%
96.1%
96.2%
96.2%

QLD
90.4%
90.5%
90.7%
90.8%
91.0%
91.2%
91.3%
91.5%
91.6%
91.8%
92.0%
92.1%
92.3%
92.4%
92.6%
92.9%
93.3%
93.6%
93.8%
94.0%
94.2%
94.3%
94.4%
94.5%
94.6%
94.7%
94.8%
94.9%
95.0%
95.2%
95.4%
95.5%
95.7%
95.9%
95.9%
95.8%
95.8%
96.3%
96.9%
97.4%
97.4%
97.4%
97.4%
97.5%
97.5%
97.5%
97.5%
97.5%
97.5%
97.5%
97.5%
97.6%
97.6%
97.6%
97.6%

MODEL INPUTS OWNERSHIP


276

SA
90.8%
91.0%
91.2%
91.3%
91.5%
91.7%
91.8%
92.0%
92.2%
92.4%
92.5%
92.7%
92.9%
93.0%
93.2%
93.5%
93.7%
94.0%
94.1%
94.1%
94.2%
94.2%
94.3%
94.3%
94.4%
94.4%
94.4%
94.5%
94.5%
94.5%
94.6%
94.6%
94.7%
94.7%
95.0%
95.2%
95.5%
96.1%
96.6%
97.2%
97.3%
97.3%
97.4%
97.4%
97.5%
97.5%
97.6%
97.6%
97.7%
97.7%
97.8%
97.8%
97.9%
97.9%
98.0%

WA
88.8%
88.9%
89.0%
89.1%
89.2%
89.3%
89.4%
89.5%
89.6%
89.7%
89.8%
89.9%
90.0%
90.1%
90.2%
90.8%
91.5%
92.1%
92.1%
92.0%
92.0%
92.3%
92.7%
93.0%
93.3%
93.6%
94.0%
94.3%
94.6%
94.4%
94.3%
94.1%
94.0%
93.8%
94.5%
95.1%
95.8%
96.1%
96.4%
96.7%
96.7%
96.8%
96.8%
96.8%
96.9%
96.9%
96.9%
97.0%
97.0%
97.0%
97.1%
97.1%
97.1%
97.2%
97.2%

TAS
93.1%
93.3%
93.6%
93.8%
94.0%
94.2%
94.4%
94.7%
94.9%
95.1%
95.3%
95.5%
95.8%
96.0%
96.2%
96.5%
96.9%
97.2%
97.3%
97.3%
97.4%
97.4%
97.4%
97.3%
97.3%
97.3%
97.3%
97.2%
97.2%
97.2%
97.2%
97.2%
97.2%
97.2%
97.2%
97.3%
97.3%
97.5%
97.7%
97.9%
97.9%
98.0%
98.0%
98.0%
98.0%
98.1%
98.1%
98.1%
98.1%
98.2%
98.2%
98.2%
98.2%
98.3%
98.3%

NT
91.3%
91.5%
91.7%
91.8%
92.0%
92.2%
92.3%
92.5%
92.7%
92.9%
93.0%
93.2%
93.4%
93.5%
93.7%
94.0%
94.3%
94.6%
93.9%
93.3%
92.6%
92.0%
91.5%
90.9%
90.3%
89.7%
89.2%
88.6%
88.0%
89.4%
90.8%
92.2%
93.6%
95.0%
95.0%
94.9%
94.9%
95.5%
96.1%
96.7%
96.7%
96.7%
96.8%
96.8%
96.8%
96.8%
96.8%
96.9%
96.9%
96.9%
96.9%
96.9%
97.0%
97.0%
97.0%

ACT
93.3%
93.4%
93.4%
93.5%
93.5%
93.6%
93.6%
93.7%
93.7%
93.8%
93.8%
93.9%
93.9%
94.0%
94.0%
94.1%
94.1%
94.2%
94.3%
94.3%
94.4%
94.7%
95.0%
95.3%
95.6%
95.9%
96.2%
96.5%
96.8%
96.6%
96.4%
96.1%
95.9%
95.7%
96.1%
96.5%
96.9%
97.4%
97.8%
98.3%
98.3%
98.3%
98.4%
98.4%
98.4%
98.4%
98.4%
98.5%
98.5%
98.5%
98.5%
98.5%
98.6%
98.6%
98.6%

Australia
89.9%
90.0%
90.1%
90.2%
90.2%
90.3%
90.4%
90.5%
90.6%
90.7%
90.8%
90.9%
91.0%
91.1%
91.2%
91.4%
91.6%
91.8%
92.1%
92.5%
92.9%
93.0%
93.2%
93.3%
93.5%
93.7%
93.8%
94.0%
94.1%
94.3%
94.4%
94.5%
94.6%
94.7%
94.9%
95.0%
95.2%
95.6%
96.0%
96.4%
96.4%
96.4%
96.4%
96.5%
96.5%
96.5%
96.5%
96.5%
96.6%
96.6%
96.6%
96.6%
96.7%
96.7%
96.7%

Table 119: Drum/Front Load Share


Year
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

NSW
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.9%
6.0%
6.1%
6.2%
6.3%
6.9%
7.5%
8.1%
9.2%
10.3%
11.4%
14.5%
17.9%
21.6%
25.6%
29.6%
33.7%
37.5%
41.2%
44.7%
47.9%
50.8%
53.3%
55.5%
57.3%
58.8%

VIC
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.8%
6.2%
6.6%
7.0%
7.4%
8.3%
9.1%
10.0%
11.4%
12.8%
14.2%
18.5%
22.1%
26.0%
29.9%
34.0%
38.0%
41.9%
45.6%
49.0%
52.2%
55.0%
57.5%
59.6%
61.5%
63.0%

QLD
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
4.0%
4.3%
4.7%
5.0%
5.3%
5.7%
6.2%
6.6%
7.8%
9.1%
10.3%
16.1%
19.9%
24.2%
28.8%
33.6%
38.3%
42.8%
47.2%
51.4%
55.3%
58.8%
61.9%
64.6%
66.9%
68.7%

SA
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.7%
6.4%
7.0%
7.7%
8.3%
9.2%
10.0%
10.9%
13.0%
15.1%
17.2%
19.3%
22.7%
26.2%
29.8%
33.3%
36.8%
40.1%
43.2%
46.1%
48.7%
51.0%
52.9%
54.6%
56.0%
57.2%

WA
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
5.0%
5.4%
5.9%
6.3%
6.7%
7.3%
8.0%
8.6%
11.1%
13.7%
16.2%
23.7%
26.9%
30.3%
33.9%
37.6%
41.3%
45.1%
48.8%
52.3%
55.5%
58.5%
61.1%
63.4%
65.4%
67.1%

TAS
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.4%
3.4%
3.5%
3.5%
3.6%
4.1%
4.5%
5.0%
6.3%
7.7%
9.0%
10.4%
12.5%
14.9%
17.5%
20.2%
23.1%
26.1%
29.2%
32.3%
35.4%
38.3%
41.1%
43.7%
46.1%
48.2%

NT
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
4.7%
4.2%
3.8%
3.3%
2.9%
2.7%
2.6%
2.4%
5.7%
9.0%
12.3%
12.9%
15.4%
18.2%
21.2%
24.4%
27.8%
31.3%
34.8%
38.2%
41.5%
44.6%
47.5%
50.2%
52.7%
54.9%

ACT
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.5%
9.6%
9.8%
9.9%
10.1%
10.2%
10.4%
10.5%
13.5%
16.5%
19.5%
22.6%
27.7%
33.2%
39.0%
44.9%
50.6%
56.2%
61.6%
66.6%
71.3%
75.4%
79.0%
82.1%
84.6%
86.6%

APPENDIX F
277

278

MODEL INPUTS OWNERSHIP

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

Actual

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

Actual
c

2008

2006

2004

2002

90%
2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

86%

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

DRUM SHARE OF CLOTHES WASHER STOCK


PENETRATION

Figure 145: Clothes Washers Penetration

100%
NSW

98%
VIC

96%
QLD

94%
SA

92%
WA

90%
TAS

88%
NT

ACT

84%
Forecast
c s

82%

YEAR

Figure 146: Clothes Washers Share of Drum Type

100%
NSW

Forecast

VIC

80%
QLD

70%
SA

60%
WA

50%
TAS

40%
NT

30%
ACT

20%

10%

0%

YEAR

Table 120: Dishwashers Penetration


Year
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

NSW
3.5%
3.8%
4.0%
4.3%
4.5%
5.4%
6.3%
7.2%
8.1%
9.1%
10.0%
10.9%
11.8%
12.7%
13.6%
14.9%
16.2%
17.5%
17.9%
18.3%
18.7%
19.4%
20.2%
20.9%
21.6%
22.3%
23.1%
23.8%
24.5%
25.8%
27.2%
28.5%
29.9%
31.2%
33.2%
35.1%
37.1%
38.9%
40.8%
42.6%
43.8%
45.1%
46.3%
47.5%
48.7%
50.0%
51.2%
52.4%
53.6%
54.9%
56.1%
57.3%
58.5%
59.8%
61.0%

VIC
4.0%
4.3%
4.5%
4.8%
5.0%
6.0%
7.1%
8.1%
9.1%
10.2%
11.2%
12.2%
13.2%
14.3%
15.3%
16.6%
17.8%
19.1%
20.3%
21.4%
22.6%
23.8%
24.9%
26.1%
27.3%
28.4%
29.6%
30.7%
31.9%
33.0%
34.1%
35.2%
36.3%
37.4%
39.1%
40.7%
42.4%
44.1%
45.8%
47.5%
48.7%
49.8%
51.0%
52.2%
53.3%
54.5%
55.7%
56.8%
58.0%
59.2%
60.3%
61.5%
62.7%
63.8%
65.0%

QLD
3.2%
3.4%
3.6%
3.8%
4.0%
5.1%
6.2%
7.3%
8.4%
9.5%
10.6%
11.7%
12.8%
13.9%
15.0%
16.1%
17.1%
18.2%
19.7%
21.1%
22.6%
22.9%
23.1%
23.4%
23.7%
23.9%
24.2%
24.4%
24.7%
25.5%
26.3%
27.0%
27.8%
28.6%
29.2%
29.7%
30.3%
34.0%
37.7%
41.4%
43.3%
45.2%
47.1%
49.0%
50.9%
52.8%
54.7%
56.7%
58.6%
60.5%
62.4%
64.3%
66.2%
68.1%
70.0%

SA
1.5%
1.6%
1.8%
1.9%
2.0%
2.7%
3.4%
4.1%
4.8%
5.5%
6.1%
6.8%
7.5%
8.2%
8.9%
9.8%
10.7%
11.6%
12.4%
13.3%
14.1%
14.7%
15.2%
15.8%
16.4%
16.9%
17.5%
18.0%
18.6%
18.9%
19.2%
19.6%
19.9%
20.2%
21.1%
22.1%
23.0%
25.6%
28.1%
30.7%
32.3%
33.9%
35.6%
37.2%
38.8%
40.4%
42.0%
43.7%
45.3%
46.9%
48.5%
50.1%
51.8%
53.4%
55.0%

WA
2.3%
2.5%
2.7%
2.8%
3.0%
3.7%
4.3%
5.0%
5.6%
6.3%
7.0%
7.6%
8.3%
8.9%
9.6%
10.8%
11.9%
13.1%
13.7%
14.2%
14.8%
15.0%
15.3%
15.5%
15.7%
15.9%
16.2%
16.4%
16.6%
17.3%
18.0%
18.6%
19.3%
20.0%
22.2%
24.5%
26.7%
29.0%
31.2%
33.5%
35.2%
36.9%
38.6%
40.3%
42.0%
43.7%
45.4%
47.1%
48.8%
50.5%
52.2%
53.9%
55.6%
57.3%
59.0%

TAS
2.8%
3.0%
3.2%
3.3%
3.5%
4.2%
4.9%
5.6%
6.3%
7.1%
7.8%
8.5%
9.2%
9.9%
10.6%
11.6%
12.5%
13.5%
14.5%
15.5%
16.5%
16.9%
17.2%
17.6%
18.0%
18.3%
18.7%
19.0%
19.4%
20.3%
21.3%
22.2%
23.2%
24.1%
24.7%
25.3%
25.9%
28.0%
30.1%
32.2%
33.6%
35.0%
36.4%
37.7%
39.1%
40.5%
41.9%
43.3%
44.7%
46.1%
47.5%
48.8%
50.2%
51.6%
53.0%

NT
3.2%
3.4%
3.6%
3.8%
4.0%
4.7%
5.5%
6.2%
6.9%
7.7%
8.4%
9.1%
9.8%
10.6%
11.3%
13.4%
15.6%
17.7%
20.1%
22.6%
25.0%
23.7%
22.4%
21.1%
19.8%
18.4%
17.1%
15.8%
14.5%
15.6%
16.7%
17.8%
18.9%
20.0%
22.0%
23.9%
25.9%
26.8%
27.6%
28.5%
29.6%
30.7%
31.8%
32.9%
34.0%
35.1%
36.2%
37.3%
38.4%
39.5%
40.6%
41.7%
42.8%
43.9%
45.0%

ACT
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.4%
13.8%
15.2%
16.6%
18.0%
19.4%
20.8%
22.2%
23.6%
25.0%
26.4%
27.9%
29.3%
30.3%
31.4%
32.4%
33.1%
33.8%
34.5%
35.2%
35.9%
36.6%
37.3%
38.0%
39.6%
41.2%
42.8%
44.4%
46.0%
46.3%
46.5%
46.8%
50.0%
53.1%
56.3%
57.3%
58.4%
59.4%
60.5%
61.5%
62.6%
63.6%
64.7%
65.7%
66.8%
67.8%
68.9%
69.9%
71.0%
72.0%

Australia
3.3%
3.6%
3.8%
4.0%
4.3%
5.2%
6.1%
7.0%
8.0%
8.9%
9.8%
10.8%
11.7%
12.6%
13.5%
14.8%
16.0%
17.2%
18.0%
18.9%
19.8%
20.5%
21.1%
21.8%
22.5%
23.1%
23.8%
24.4%
25.1%
26.1%
27.1%
28.1%
29.1%
30.2%
31.7%
33.2%
34.7%
36.9%
39.2%
41.5%
43.0%
44.4%
45.8%
47.2%
48.7%
50.1%
51.6%
53.0%
54.4%
55.9%
57.3%
58.8%
60.2%
61.7%
63.1%

APPENDIX F
279

PENETRATION

Figure 147: Dishwashers Penetration

80%

NSW

70%

VIC
QLD

60%

SA
50%

WA

40%

TAS

30%

NT

20%

ACT

10%

Actual

Forecast

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

0%

YEAR

MODEL INPUTS OWNERSHIP


280

Table 121: Clothes Dryers Penetration


Year
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

NSW
4.0%
4.8%
5.5%
6.3%
7.0%
10.5%
14.0%
17.4%
20.9%
24.4%
27.9%
31.4%
34.8%
38.3%
41.8%
43.6%
45.5%
47.3%
48.2%
49.0%
49.9%
50.3%
50.6%
51.0%
51.3%
51.7%
52.0%
52.4%
52.7%
53.3%
53.9%
54.4%
55.0%
55.6%
57.2%
58.8%
60.4%
60.0%
59.5%
59.1%
59.2%
59.2%
59.3%
59.3%
59.4%
59.5%
59.5%
59.6%
59.6%
59.7%
59.8%
59.8%
59.9%
59.9%
60.0%

VIC
5.0%
5.8%
6.5%
7.3%
8.0%
11.6%
15.2%
18.8%
22.4%
26.0%
29.6%
33.2%
36.8%
40.4%
44.0%
45.7%
47.4%
49.1%
50.0%
50.9%
51.8%
52.5%
53.2%
53.9%
54.6%
55.2%
55.9%
56.6%
57.3%
56.8%
56.3%
55.9%
55.4%
54.9%
55.0%
55.0%
55.1%
54.7%
54.4%
54.0%
54.1%
54.1%
54.2%
54.3%
54.3%
54.4%
54.5%
54.5%
54.6%
54.7%
54.7%
54.8%
54.9%
54.9%
55.0%

QLD
1.0%
1.3%
1.5%
1.8%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
11.4%
15.8%
20.3%
24.7%
29.1%
33.0%
36.8%
40.7%
42.4%
44.1%
45.8%
46.3%
46.7%
47.2%
47.6%
48.1%
48.5%
49.0%
49.4%
50.0%
50.6%
51.3%
51.9%
52.5%
52.6%
52.6%
52.7%
53.4%
54.1%
54.8%
55.0%
55.2%
55.4%
55.7%
55.9%
56.1%
56.3%
56.5%
56.7%
56.9%
57.1%
57.4%
57.6%
57.8%
58.0%

SA
0.5%
0.8%
1.0%
1.3%
1.5%
4.0%
6.5%
9.0%
11.5%
14.0%
18.5%
23.0%
27.5%
32.0%
36.5%
39.1%
41.7%
44.3%
44.9%
45.5%
46.1%
46.5%
46.9%
47.2%
47.6%
48.0%
48.4%
48.7%
49.1%
49.0%
48.8%
48.7%
48.5%
48.4%
49.4%
50.5%
51.5%
51.5%
51.5%
51.5%
51.5%
51.5%
51.5%
51.5%
51.5%
51.5%
51.5%
51.5%
51.5%
51.5%
51.5%
51.5%
51.5%
51.5%
51.5%

WA
2.3%
2.5%
2.7%
2.8%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
10.8%
13.6%
16.4%
19.2%
22.0%
24.7%
27.4%
30.1%
31.5%
33.0%
34.4%
35.3%
36.2%
37.0%
37.9%
38.8%
39.7%
40.5%
41.4%
42.1%
42.9%
43.6%
44.4%
45.1%
46.2%
47.3%
48.4%
48.4%
48.3%
48.3%
48.3%
48.3%
48.3%
48.3%
48.3%
48.3%
48.3%
48.3%
48.3%
48.3%
48.3%
48.3%
48.3%
48.3%
48.3%

TAS
10.0%
10.8%
11.5%
12.3%
13.0%
16.7%
20.4%
24.1%
27.8%
31.5%
35.1%
38.8%
42.5%
46.2%
49.9%
51.9%
53.9%
55.9%
56.2%
56.4%
56.7%
56.4%
56.2%
55.9%
55.7%
55.4%
55.1%
54.9%
54.6%
54.9%
55.2%
55.5%
55.8%
56.1%
55.7%
55.2%
54.8%
55.2%
55.5%
55.9%
56.0%
56.0%
56.1%
56.2%
56.3%
56.3%
56.4%
56.5%
56.6%
56.6%
56.7%
56.8%
56.9%
56.9%
57.0%

NT
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
12.6%
15.1%
17.6%
20.1%
22.6%
25.2%
27.7%
30.2%
31.0%
31.9%
32.7%
33.5%
34.3%
35.1%
33.6%
32.2%
30.7%
29.2%
27.7%
26.3%
24.8%
23.3%
25.2%
27.1%
28.9%
30.8%
32.7%
34.0%
35.3%
36.6%
36.4%
36.1%
35.9%
35.9%
35.9%
35.9%
35.9%
35.9%
35.9%
35.9%
36.0%
36.0%
36.0%
36.0%
36.0%
36.0%
36.0%
36.0%

ACT
8.5%
9.1%
9.8%
10.4%
11.0%
14.7%
18.4%
22.2%
25.9%
29.6%
33.3%
37.0%
40.8%
44.5%
48.2%
49.4%
50.7%
51.9%
52.3%
52.6%
53.0%
53.2%
53.3%
53.5%
53.6%
53.8%
53.9%
54.1%
54.2%
54.6%
55.0%
55.4%
55.8%
56.2%
57.9%
59.7%
61.4%
60.6%
59.7%
58.9%
58.8%
58.6%
58.5%
58.4%
58.3%
58.1%
58.0%
57.9%
57.8%
57.6%
57.5%
57.4%
57.3%
57.1%
57.0%

Australia
3.6%
4.2%
4.8%
5.4%
6.0%
8.8%
11.7%
14.6%
17.4%
20.3%
23.9%
27.6%
31.2%
34.9%
38.6%
40.8%
42.9%
45.2%
46.1%
47.1%
48.1%
48.6%
49.0%
49.4%
49.9%
50.3%
50.8%
51.2%
51.7%
51.9%
52.2%
52.5%
52.7%
53.0%
53.8%
54.6%
55.4%
55.2%
55.1%
55.0%
55.1%
55.2%
55.2%
55.3%
55.4%
55.5%
55.5%
55.6%
55.7%
55.8%
55.9%
55.9%
56.0%
56.1%
56.2%

APPENDIX F
281

PENETRATION

Figure 148: Clothes Dryers Penetration

80%

NSW

70%

VIC

60%

QLD
SA

50%

WA
40%

TAS

30%

NT

20%

ACT

10%

Actual
A
t a

Forecast
o c s

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

0%

YEAR

MODEL INPUTS OWNERSHIP


282

Table 122: Main Form of Space Heating


Year
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

Total
96.8%
96.8%
96.8%
96.8%
96.8%
96.7%
96.7%
96.7%
96.7%
96.7%
96.7%
95.7%
94.6%
93.6%
92.6%
92.4%
92.3%
92.1%
92.2%
92.3%
92.4%
91.3%
90.3%
89.2%
88.1%
87.0%
86.0%
84.9%
83.8%
82.9%
82.1%
81.2%
80.4%
79.5%
79.9%
80.2%
80.5%
79.7%
78.9%
78.2%
78.2%
78.2%
78.3%
78.3%
78.3%
78.4%
78.4%
78.4%
78.5%
78.5%
78.6%
78.6%
78.6%
78.7%
78.7%

Electric
44.3%
44.1%
43.9%
43.7%
43.4%
43.2%
43.0%
42.8%
42.6%
42.4%
42.1%
42.3%
42.4%
42.5%
42.6%
44.2%
45.7%
47.2%
45.4%
43.6%
41.8%
40.3%
38.8%
37.3%
35.8%
34.3%
32.7%
31.2%
29.7%
29.4%
29.0%
28.7%
28.4%
28.0%
29.0%
29.9%
30.9%
31.4%
31.8%
32.3%
32.5%
32.8%
33.0%
33.2%
33.4%
33.6%
33.9%
34.1%
34.3%
34.5%
34.8%
35.0%
35.2%
35.4%
35.7%

Gas
11.0%
11.6%
12.1%
12.7%
13.2%
13.8%
14.4%
14.9%
15.5%
16.0%
16.6%
18.5%
20.4%
22.4%
24.3%
24.0%
23.7%
23.4%
23.8%
24.1%
24.5%
25.4%
26.3%
27.3%
28.2%
29.1%
30.0%
30.9%
31.9%
32.1%
32.3%
32.5%
32.7%
33.0%
33.4%
33.8%
34.2%
33.8%
33.4%
33.0%
33.1%
33.2%
33.3%
33.4%
33.5%
33.6%
33.8%
33.9%
34.0%
34.1%
34.2%
34.3%
34.4%
34.6%
34.7%

Oil
31.5%
31.0%
30.5%
30.1%
29.6%
29.1%
28.7%
28.2%
27.7%
27.3%
26.8%
23.0%
19.3%
15.5%
11.7%
10.5%
9.3%
8.1%
7.3%
6.4%
5.6%
5.3%
5.0%
4.7%
4.4%
4.0%
3.7%
3.4%
3.1%
2.9%
2.7%
2.6%
2.4%
2.2%
1.9%
1.6%
1.2%
1.1%
0.9%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%

Wood
8.1%
8.2%
8.3%
8.4%
8.4%
8.5%
8.6%
8.7%
8.8%
8.9%
9.0%
8.7%
8.5%
8.2%
8.0%
8.3%
8.7%
9.0%
11.3%
13.5%
15.8%
16.0%
16.3%
16.5%
16.7%
16.9%
17.2%
17.4%
17.6%
17.2%
16.9%
16.5%
16.1%
15.7%
15.0%
14.4%
13.7%
13.0%
12.3%
11.6%
11.3%
11.1%
10.8%
10.5%
10.3%
10.0%
9.8%
9.5%
9.2%
9.0%
8.7%
8.4%
8.2%
7.9%
7.7%

Other
1.9%
1.9%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.1%
2.1%
2.1%
2.1%
2.2%
3.1%
4.1%
5.0%
6.0%
5.4%
4.8%
4.3%
4.4%
4.6%
4.7%
4.3%
3.9%
3.5%
3.1%
2.7%
2.3%
1.9%
1.5%
1.3%
1.2%
1.0%
0.8%
0.7%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%

None
3.2%
3.2%
3.2%
3.2%
3.2%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
4.3%
5.4%
6.4%
7.4%
7.6%
7.7%
7.9%
7.8%
7.7%
7.6%
8.7%
9.7%
10.8%
11.9%
13.0%
14.0%
15.1%
16.2%
17.1%
17.9%
18.8%
19.6%
20.5%
20.1%
19.8%
19.5%
20.3%
21.1%
21.8%
21.8%
21.8%
21.7%
21.7%
21.7%
21.6%
21.6%
21.6%
21.5%
21.5%
21.4%
21.4%
21.4%
21.3%
21.3%

Total
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%

APPENDIX F
283

SHARE

Figure 149: Main Space Heating Share by Fuel Type Australia

100%

Actual

Total

Forecast

90%

Electric

80%

Gas

70%

Oil

60%

Wood

50%

Other

40%

None

30%
20%
10%

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

0%

YEAR

MODEL INPUTS OWNERSHIP


284

Table 123: Electric Main Space Heating


Year
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

NSW
60.0%
59.8%
59.6%
59.4%
59.2%
59.0%
58.8%
58.6%
58.4%
58.2%
58.0%
57.8%
57.5%
57.3%
57.0%
59.9%
62.8%
65.7%
63.2%
60.7%
58.2%
56.7%
55.2%
53.7%
52.2%
50.7%
49.3%
47.8%
46.3%
45.5%
44.6%
43.8%
43.0%
42.2%
42.9%
43.7%
44.4%
44.4%
44.3%
44.3%
44.3%
44.4%
44.4%
44.5%
44.5%
44.6%
44.6%
44.7%
44.7%
44.8%
44.8%
44.9%
44.9%
45.0%
45.0%

VIC
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
19.9%
19.8%
19.7%
20.9%
22.1%
23.4%
22.3%
21.2%
20.1%
19.1%
18.2%
17.2%
16.3%
15.3%
14.4%
13.4%
12.5%
12.4%
12.3%
12.2%
12.1%
11.9%
12.3%
12.6%
12.9%
13.5%
14.1%
14.7%
14.8%
15.0%
15.1%
15.3%
15.4%
15.6%
15.7%
15.9%
16.1%
16.2%
16.4%
16.5%
16.7%
16.8%
17.0%

QLD
67.0%
66.7%
66.4%
66.2%
65.9%
65.6%
65.3%
65.0%
64.8%
64.5%
64.2%
64.2%
64.1%
64.0%
64.0%
61.8%
59.7%
57.6%
55.6%
53.7%
51.8%
48.6%
45.5%
42.3%
39.2%
36.0%
32.9%
29.7%
26.6%
26.1%
25.7%
25.3%
24.8%
24.4%
26.7%
29.0%
31.3%
31.5%
31.8%
32.0%
32.4%
32.8%
33.2%
33.6%
34.0%
34.4%
34.8%
35.2%
35.6%
36.0%
36.4%
36.8%
37.2%
37.6%
38.0%

SA
41.9%
41.5%
41.1%
40.7%
40.3%
39.9%
39.5%
39.1%
38.7%
38.3%
37.9%
36.5%
35.1%
33.7%
32.3%
36.5%
40.7%
44.9%
42.8%
40.6%
38.5%
38.2%
37.9%
37.6%
37.3%
37.0%
36.7%
36.3%
36.0%
36.5%
37.0%
37.4%
37.9%
38.4%
38.7%
39.0%
39.3%
40.3%
41.3%
42.2%
42.6%
43.0%
43.4%
43.8%
44.1%
44.5%
44.9%
45.3%
45.7%
46.1%
46.5%
46.8%
47.2%
47.6%
48.0%

WA
30.0%
30.1%
30.2%
30.3%
30.4%
30.5%
30.6%
30.7%
30.8%
30.9%
31.0%
31.8%
32.6%
33.5%
34.3%
34.4%
34.6%
34.8%
32.6%
30.4%
28.2%
26.8%
25.4%
24.0%
22.6%
21.3%
19.9%
18.5%
17.1%
17.0%
16.9%
16.8%
16.7%
16.6%
17.7%
18.9%
20.0%
21.5%
23.0%
24.5%
25.1%
25.7%
26.4%
27.0%
27.6%
28.3%
28.9%
29.5%
30.2%
30.8%
31.5%
32.1%
32.7%
33.4%
34.0%

TAS
17.0%
17.2%
17.3%
17.5%
17.7%
17.9%
18.0%
18.2%
18.4%
18.6%
18.7%
19.9%
21.1%
22.3%
23.5%
27.6%
31.6%
35.7%
34.6%
33.5%
32.5%
32.0%
31.5%
31.1%
30.6%
30.1%
29.7%
29.2%
28.7%
29.6%
30.5%
31.3%
32.2%
33.1%
37.3%
41.5%
45.7%
48.9%
52.1%
55.3%
55.7%
56.2%
56.6%
57.1%
57.5%
58.0%
58.4%
58.9%
59.3%
59.8%
60.2%
60.7%
61.1%
61.6%
62.0%

NT
35.0%
34.9%
34.8%
34.7%
34.6%
34.5%
34.5%
34.4%
34.3%
34.2%
34.1%
31.0%
27.8%
24.7%
21.6%
16.7%
11.7%
6.8%
5.7%
4.5%
3.4%
4.1%
4.7%
5.4%
6.1%
6.8%
7.5%
8.2%
8.9%
7.8%
6.8%
5.8%
4.8%
3.8%
3.3%
2.9%
2.4%
3.0%
3.7%
4.4%
4.5%
4.7%
4.9%
5.1%
5.2%
5.4%
5.6%
5.8%
5.9%
6.1%
6.3%
6.5%
6.6%
6.8%
7.0%

ACT
20.0%
20.4%
20.8%
21.2%
21.7%
22.1%
22.5%
22.9%
23.3%
23.7%
24.2%
30.2%
36.3%
42.4%
48.4%
54.2%
59.9%
65.7%
63.3%
61.0%
58.6%
56.0%
53.4%
50.8%
48.2%
45.6%
43.0%
40.4%
37.8%
38.0%
38.1%
38.3%
38.4%
38.5%
38.1%
37.7%
37.3%
36.2%
35.1%
34.0%
33.7%
33.4%
33.0%
32.7%
32.4%
32.0%
31.7%
31.3%
31.0%
30.7%
30.3%
30.0%
29.7%
29.3%
29.0%

Australia
44.3%
44.1%
43.9%
43.7%
43.4%
43.2%
43.0%
42.8%
42.6%
42.4%
42.1%
42.3%
42.4%
42.5%
42.6%
44.2%
45.7%
47.2%
45.4%
43.6%
41.8%
40.3%
38.8%
37.3%
35.8%
34.3%
32.7%
31.2%
29.7%
29.4%
29.0%
28.7%
28.4%
28.0%
29.0%
29.9%
30.9%
31.4%
31.8%
32.3%
32.5%
32.8%
33.0%
33.2%
33.4%
33.6%
33.9%
34.1%
34.3%
34.5%
34.8%
35.0%
35.2%
35.4%
35.7%

APPENDIX F
285

SHARE

Figure 150: Electric Main Space Heating


80%
Actual

NSW

Forecast

VIC

70%

QLD

60%

SA
50%

WA

40%

TAS

30%

NT
ACT

20%
10%

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

0%

YEAR

MODEL INPUTS OWNERSHIP


286

Table 124: Gas Main Space Heating (LPG+Mains)


Year
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

NSW
5.0%
5.4%
5.8%
6.2%
6.6%
6.9%
7.3%
7.7%
8.1%
8.5%
8.9%
10.0%
11.2%
12.4%
13.5%
12.5%
11.5%
10.5%
11.3%
12.0%
12.7%
13.6%
14.5%
15.3%
16.2%
17.1%
17.9%
18.8%
19.7%
20.1%
20.6%
21.0%
21.4%
21.9%
22.5%
23.1%
23.7%
22.9%
22.0%
21.2%
21.4%
21.5%
21.6%
21.7%
21.8%
21.9%
22.1%
22.2%
22.3%
22.4%
22.5%
22.6%
22.8%
22.9%
23.0%

VIC
25.0%
26.0%
27.0%
28.0%
29.0%
30.0%
31.0%
32.0%
33.0%
34.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
54.9%
55.5%
56.2%
56.8%
58.1%
59.4%
60.7%
62.0%
63.3%
64.6%
65.8%
67.1%
68.4%
69.7%
71.0%
71.1%
71.3%
71.4%
71.5%
71.6%
72.0%
72.4%
72.7%
72.2%
71.7%
71.2%
71.4%
71.6%
71.7%
71.9%
72.1%
72.3%
72.5%
72.7%
72.9%
73.1%
73.2%
73.4%
73.6%
73.8%
74.0%

QLD
1.0%
1.0%
1.1%
1.1%
1.2%
1.2%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.4%
1.4%
1.5%
1.6%
1.6%
1.7%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
2.0%
2.2%
2.4%
2.6%
2.8%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.8%
2.9%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.8%
3.0%
3.1%
3.3%
3.4%
3.6%
3.8%
3.9%
4.1%
4.2%
4.4%
4.5%
4.7%
4.8%
5.0%

SA
15.0%
15.7%
16.4%
17.1%
17.9%
18.6%
19.3%
20.0%
20.7%
21.4%
22.1%
24.7%
27.2%
29.7%
32.2%
30.0%
27.9%
25.8%
26.3%
26.8%
27.3%
28.0%
28.8%
29.5%
30.3%
31.1%
31.8%
32.6%
33.3%
33.1%
32.9%
32.7%
32.5%
32.3%
32.4%
32.5%
32.7%
32.9%
33.1%
33.4%
33.4%
33.4%
33.5%
33.5%
33.6%
33.6%
33.7%
33.7%
33.7%
33.8%
33.8%
33.9%
33.9%
34.0%
34.0%

WA
7.0%
7.3%
7.6%
7.9%
8.3%
8.6%
8.9%
9.2%
9.5%
9.8%
10.2%
11.6%
13.1%
14.6%
16.0%
16.5%
17.0%
17.5%
17.6%
17.8%
17.9%
19.7%
21.5%
23.2%
25.0%
26.8%
28.6%
30.3%
32.1%
33.5%
34.9%
36.3%
37.7%
39.1%
39.7%
40.4%
41.0%
41.3%
41.6%
42.0%
42.1%
42.2%
42.4%
42.5%
42.6%
42.8%
42.9%
43.0%
43.2%
43.3%
43.5%
43.6%
43.7%
43.9%
44.0%

TAS
2.0%
2.3%
2.5%
2.8%
3.1%
3.3%
3.6%
3.9%
4.1%
4.4%
4.6%
5.6%
6.6%
7.6%
8.6%
7.5%
6.4%
5.3%
4.5%
3.7%
2.9%
3.2%
3.5%
3.7%
4.0%
4.3%
4.6%
4.9%
5.2%
5.3%
5.5%
5.6%
5.8%
6.0%
5.7%
5.5%
5.3%
4.9%
4.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.4%
5.9%
6.4%
6.8%
7.3%
7.7%
8.2%
8.7%
9.1%
9.6%
10.1%
10.5%
11.0%

NT
0.0%
0.2%
0.3%
0.5%
0.6%
0.8%
0.9%
1.1%
1.2%
1.4%
1.5%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
0.0%
0.3%
0.6%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
0.0%
0.7%
1.3%
2.0%
2.7%
3.4%
4.0%
4.7%
5.4%
5.0%
4.6%
4.2%
3.8%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
4.0%
4.9%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.9%
5.9%
5.9%
5.9%
5.9%
5.9%
5.9%
5.9%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%

ACT
8.0%
8.5%
8.9%
9.4%
9.8%
10.3%
10.8%
11.2%
11.7%
12.1%
12.6%
15.1%
17.6%
20.1%
22.6%
17.0%
11.4%
5.8%
6.8%
7.9%
8.9%
13.5%
18.2%
22.9%
27.5%
32.2%
36.8%
41.5%
46.1%
47.1%
48.0%
48.9%
49.8%
50.8%
52.6%
54.4%
56.3%
57.5%
58.6%
59.8%
60.3%
60.8%
61.3%
61.7%
62.2%
62.7%
63.2%
63.7%
64.1%
64.6%
65.1%
65.6%
66.0%
66.5%
67.0%

Australia
11.0%
11.6%
12.1%
12.7%
13.2%
13.8%
14.4%
14.9%
15.5%
16.0%
16.6%
18.5%
20.4%
22.4%
24.3%
24.0%
23.7%
23.4%
23.8%
24.1%
24.5%
25.4%
26.3%
27.3%
28.2%
29.1%
30.0%
30.9%
31.9%
32.1%
32.3%
32.5%
32.7%
33.0%
33.4%
33.8%
34.2%
33.8%
33.4%
33.0%
33.1%
33.2%
33.3%
33.4%
33.5%
33.6%
33.8%
33.9%
34.0%
34.1%
34.2%
34.3%
34.4%
34.6%
34.7%

APPENDIX F
287

SHARE

Figure 151: Gas Main Space Heating (LPG+Mains)


80%

NSW

70%

VIC
QLD

60%

SA
50%

WA

40%

TAS

30%

NT
ACT

20%
Actual
c

Forecast
c s

10%

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

0%

YEAR

MODEL INPUTS OWNERSHIP


288

Table 125: Wood Main Space Heating


Year
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

NSW
6.0%
6.1%
6.2%
6.3%
6.4%
6.5%
6.6%
6.7%
6.8%
6.9%
7.0%
7.2%
7.5%
7.7%
8.0%
7.9%
7.8%
7.6%
10.0%
12.3%
14.6%
14.9%
15.3%
15.6%
15.9%
16.2%
16.5%
16.8%
17.1%
16.6%
16.2%
15.7%
15.2%
14.8%
13.8%
12.8%
11.8%
11.5%
11.2%
10.9%
10.7%
10.5%
10.4%
10.2%
10.0%
9.9%
9.7%
9.6%
9.4%
9.2%
9.1%
8.9%
8.7%
8.6%
8.4%

VIC
9.5%
9.5%
9.5%
9.6%
9.6%
9.6%
9.6%
9.6%
9.7%
9.7%
9.7%
10.0%
10.4%
10.7%
11.0%
10.8%
10.6%
10.4%
11.2%
11.9%
12.6%
12.8%
13.0%
13.1%
13.3%
13.5%
13.7%
13.9%
14.0%
14.0%
14.0%
13.9%
13.9%
13.9%
13.4%
12.9%
12.4%
12.0%
11.6%
11.2%
11.0%
10.7%
10.4%
10.1%
9.8%
9.5%
9.3%
9.0%
8.7%
8.4%
8.1%
7.8%
7.6%
7.3%
7.0%

QLD
2.0%
2.1%
2.2%
2.3%
2.3%
2.4%
2.5%
2.6%
2.7%
2.8%
2.9%
2.4%
1.9%
1.5%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.7%
3.8%
6.0%
8.1%
8.4%
8.6%
8.9%
9.1%
9.4%
9.6%
9.9%
10.1%
10.0%
9.9%
9.9%
9.8%
9.7%
9.7%
9.7%
9.7%
9.1%
8.4%
7.8%
7.7%
7.6%
7.5%
7.3%
7.2%
7.1%
7.0%
6.8%
6.7%
6.6%
6.5%
6.4%
6.2%
6.1%
6.0%

SA
11.0%
11.0%
10.9%
10.9%
10.9%
10.9%
10.8%
10.8%
10.8%
10.7%
10.7%
11.3%
11.9%
12.4%
13.0%
13.0%
13.0%
13.1%
15.6%
18.2%
20.8%
20.5%
20.3%
20.1%
19.9%
19.6%
19.4%
19.2%
19.0%
18.7%
18.5%
18.2%
18.0%
17.7%
17.6%
17.5%
17.4%
16.3%
15.2%
14.1%
13.8%
13.4%
13.1%
12.7%
12.4%
12.1%
11.7%
11.4%
11.0%
10.7%
10.4%
10.0%
9.7%
9.3%
9.0%

WA
12.0%
12.1%
12.2%
12.3%
12.4%
12.5%
12.6%
12.7%
12.8%
12.9%
13.0%
13.3%
13.5%
13.8%
14.0%
14.5%
15.0%
15.5%
19.0%
22.5%
26.0%
26.7%
27.4%
28.1%
28.8%
29.5%
30.2%
30.9%
31.6%
30.2%
28.8%
27.4%
26.1%
24.7%
23.8%
22.9%
22.1%
19.9%
17.8%
15.7%
15.1%
14.5%
14.0%
13.4%
12.8%
12.2%
11.6%
11.1%
10.5%
9.9%
9.3%
8.7%
8.2%
7.6%
7.0%

TAS
32.0%
32.4%
32.8%
33.1%
33.5%
33.9%
34.3%
34.7%
35.0%
35.4%
35.8%
36.7%
37.6%
38.4%
39.3%
40.4%
41.6%
42.7%
46.3%
49.8%
53.3%
54.2%
55.1%
56.0%
56.9%
57.8%
58.7%
59.6%
60.5%
59.6%
58.7%
57.9%
57.0%
56.1%
52.5%
48.8%
45.2%
42.6%
40.0%
37.5%
36.7%
35.9%
35.1%
34.3%
33.5%
32.7%
31.9%
31.1%
30.3%
29.5%
28.7%
27.9%
27.1%
26.3%
25.5%

NT
8.0%
7.9%
7.8%
7.8%
7.7%
7.6%
7.5%
7.5%
7.4%
7.3%
7.2%
5.9%
4.5%
3.1%
1.7%
1.1%
0.6%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
2.8%
2.6%
2.4%
2.1%
1.9%
1.7%
1.5%
1.3%
1.7%
2.2%
2.6%
3.0%
3.4%
3.0%
2.6%
2.2%
1.9%
1.6%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%

ACT
3.0%
3.2%
3.4%
3.7%
3.9%
4.1%
4.3%
4.6%
4.8%
5.0%
5.2%
5.6%
6.0%
6.3%
6.7%
8.1%
9.4%
10.8%
12.8%
14.8%
16.8%
15.9%
15.1%
14.3%
13.5%
12.7%
11.9%
11.0%
10.2%
9.3%
8.4%
7.5%
6.6%
5.7%
5.2%
4.8%
4.3%
3.8%
3.4%
3.0%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.1%
1.0%

Australia
8.1%
8.2%
8.3%
8.4%
8.4%
8.5%
8.6%
8.7%
8.8%
8.9%
9.0%
8.7%
8.5%
8.2%
8.0%
8.3%
8.7%
9.0%
11.3%
13.5%
15.8%
16.0%
16.3%
16.5%
16.7%
16.9%
17.2%
17.4%
17.6%
17.2%
16.9%
16.5%
16.1%
15.7%
15.0%
14.4%
13.7%
13.0%
12.3%
11.6%
11.3%
11.1%
10.8%
10.5%
10.3%
10.0%
9.8%
9.5%
9.2%
9.0%
8.7%
8.4%
8.2%
7.9%
7.7%

APPENDIX F
289

SHARE

Figure 152: Wood Main Space Heating

70%
Actual
c

NSW

Forecast
c s

VIC

60%

QLD
50%

SA
WA

40%

TAS
30%

NT

20%

ACT

10%

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

0%

YEAR

MODEL INPUTS OWNERSHIP


290

Table 126: Other Main Space Heating (mainly coal, kerosene)


Year
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

NSW
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
0.8%
0.9%
1.0%
1.1%
1.2%
1.3%
1.3%
2.3%
3.3%
4.2%
5.2%
4.8%
4.4%
4.1%
4.2%
4.4%
4.6%
4.2%
3.9%
3.5%
3.2%
2.8%
2.4%
2.1%
1.7%
1.5%
1.3%
1.1%
0.9%
0.7%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%

VIC
6.0%
5.9%
5.7%
5.6%
5.4%
5.3%
5.1%
5.0%
4.8%
4.7%
4.5%
3.7%
2.9%
2.0%
1.2%
1.3%
1.4%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%

QLD
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
2.1%
3.3%
4.6%
5.9%
5.3%
4.6%
4.0%
5.7%
7.4%
9.1%
8.3%
7.4%
6.5%
5.6%
4.7%
3.8%
2.9%
2.0%
1.9%
1.7%
1.6%
1.4%
1.3%
1.1%
1.0%
0.9%
0.8%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%

SA
0.0%
0.2%
0.3%
0.5%
0.6%
0.8%
0.9%
1.1%
1.2%
1.4%
1.5%
2.4%
3.3%
4.1%
5.0%
4.7%
4.4%
4.1%
4.0%
3.9%
3.7%
3.5%
3.2%
2.9%
2.6%
2.3%
2.1%
1.8%
1.5%
1.3%
1.1%
0.9%
0.7%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%

WA
0.5%
0.6%
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
0.8%
0.9%
0.9%
1.0%
1.1%
1.1%
3.0%
4.8%
6.7%
8.6%
8.7%
8.8%
8.9%
9.3%
9.6%
10.0%
9.0%
8.0%
7.1%
6.1%
5.1%
4.1%
3.1%
2.1%
1.8%
1.5%
1.2%
0.9%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.7%
0.8%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%

TAS
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
0.9%
1.0%
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.1%
0.4%
0.7%
0.9%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%

NT
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
0.5%
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.5%
0.7%
0.8%
0.9%
1.0%
1.0%
1.1%
1.2%
1.2%
1.3%
1.0%
0.8%
0.5%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

ACT
4.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.5%
3.3%
3.2%
3.0%
2.8%
2.7%
2.5%
2.3%
1.9%
1.4%
1.0%
0.5%
0.3%
0.2%
0.0%
0.3%
0.6%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.5%
0.3%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%

Australia
1.9%
1.9%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.1%
2.1%
2.1%
2.1%
2.2%
3.1%
4.1%
5.0%
6.0%
5.4%
4.8%
4.3%
4.4%
4.6%
4.7%
4.3%
3.9%
3.5%
3.1%
2.7%
2.3%
1.9%
1.5%
1.3%
1.2%
1.0%
0.8%
0.7%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%

APPENDIX F
291

SHARE

Figure 153: Other Main Space Heating

12%

NSW
Actual
c

Forecast
o c s

VIC

10%

QLD
SA

8%

WA
6%

TAS
NT

4%

ACT
2%

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

0%

YEAR

MODEL INPUTS OWNERSHIP


292

Table 127: No Main Space Heating


Year
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975