INSTITUTE OF LAW NIRMA UNIVERSITY

ECONOMICS TERM ASSIGNMENT On the article Does India needs Taliban talks to stay relavant

Submitted to Mr. Arun Prasad, Faculty of Economics

Submitted by Yash Sampat 10BBL113 Parth Patel 10BBL108 Rahul Purohit 10BBL109 Shantanu Saharan 10BBL111 BCOMLLB (H) D Section, 3rd Semester On 8rd August 2011

Facts
Recently in the month of May just after a week of the killing of the most wanted terrorist Osama Bin Laden, The Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh visited Afghanistan for solving the troubled state lying between them. He further pledged $500m to Afghanistan over the next six years for supporting Afghan President Hamid Karzai's peace efforts with Taliban insurgents.

He stated "We now have a better idea of where we can do more... We have made a fresh commitment of $500m over the next few years." The money will be spent on agriculture, schools and roads. India is already building the new parliament in Kabul - at a cost of $19m. It seems that the Indian Prime minister has a keen interest and concern for reconciling the relations between the two nations as well as involving the talks with the neighbouring country Pakistan. Manmohan Singh also said that he supported the Afghan government's efforts to reconcile with the Taliban. India and Afghanistan shared concerns over militant networks in Pakistan. The facts states that the killing of Laden's killing could speed up a peace deal between the Karzai government and the Taliban. The Indian PM was making his first visit to Kabul in six years. It was stated that with Pakistan's international reputation damaged after the killing of Osama Bin Laden, Indian government may see this as an opportunity to improve its international relations with Afghanistan. Both Dr. Manmohan Singh and Mr Karzai felt justified that Bin Laden was discovered in Pakistan as they have long accused Islamabad of upsetting regional stability by harbouring of the terrorists. The growing closeness between the two countries has enraged Islamabad, which also wants to increase its influence in Afghanistan. The recent declaration of the 'drawdown' of US and Nato forces is starting in two months is estimated to get complete by the end of 2014. Keeping in view the warlike situation between the public, government and the US Army, The Secretary of the State Hillary Clinton added that it is now essential for the leaders to talk and negotiate on the topic for the peace to be prevailed in Afghanistan and the neighbouring countries. On one hand Pakistan is encouraging the terrorists groups to reconcile with Karzai Government but on the other side it is also provoking them not to continue with the peace deal therefore the Taliban is not yet willing to talk to the Karzai government; nor are the influential minority Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara tribal leaders expected to support such a peace deal and other hand they are working as brokers or spoilers to gain the public support in the name of jihad.

It is expected that the US will Islamabad on identifying suitable elements of the Afghan Taliban for the talks. Admiral Michael Mullen, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, had bluntly accused Pakistan's Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) of maintaining ties with the Haqqani terror network. On May 11, the US imposed sanctions on the Haqqani network and its commander Badruddin Haqqani; his two brothers Nasiruddin and Sirajuddin are already designated as global terrorists under US laws. Though these issues are important on the Indian perspective too The Indian embassy in Kabul had witnessed suicide car bombing on July 8, 2008, the first terror attack on an Indian diplomatic mission worldwide, which had killed 54 people. This was followed by another attack on October 8, 2009. India holds the Haqqani network responsible for carrying out these attacks and the ISI for planning them. Even the double game of Pakistan aimed to encourage the terrorism is of main concern to India. But the 'worst-case' scenario for India is the seizure of power by the Taliban, which permits safe source for terror attacks and the spread of jihadi violence against India and to avoid that India needs to reach out to the Taliban. It is even alleged that the Taliban has the links to the other terrorists groups like Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) etc.

Issues discussed
Following are the few issues which arise from the above facts and are discussed below:-

Issue 1 Dropdown of the US Army from Afghanistan One of the major issues which were highlighted were the declaration of the taking back of the army of the United States of America by the end of 2014, which is proposed to start from July this year as declared by the secretary of the state Hillary Clinton as a step to facilitate the peace talks among the leaders and terrorist groups with a view to end the warlike situation among the people, terrorists and the army. The main issue lies that for what reason this decision has been taken. Some possibilities can be that since the superpower is affected by the credit crunch therefore it may not be possible to bear the expenses of the army, even as discussed earlier, due to the warlike situation and the aggression of the public on army; thus, US may no more be interested in keeping the army there. Issue 2 Indias interest to reconcile the relations As described in starting of the facts, it was the first trip to Afghanistan after six years by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and providing the aid of $500 million for reconstructing the nation is a major help given by India. Since the Prime minister in his statements has shown a strong support to Karzai Government even after happening of the terrorist attacks in the past. The main issue lies here that why India is strongly supporting Afghanistan. It is seen that all these incidents are having effect on India. Thus India aims to maintain friendly relations with Karzai Government and as well as with Pakistan Government.

Issue 3 Pakistans Diplomacy Amidst the talks between India and Afghanistan, between Karzai government and the Taliban including the minority terrorist forces, Pakistan seems to be interested in the peace deal s and with the increase in the friendliness between Karzai Government and India, Pakistani government seems to be angered as it also wants its influence to be in Afghanistan. The main issue lies here that what Pakistan is getting after being involved in the peace talks, as a very pivotal and diplomatic role is played by Pakistani Government and ISI agency.

Problem identification
Here are discussed some of the problems involved in the facts

Role of the super power US As discussed earlier that the decision of the USA to withdraw the armed forces from Afghanistan and as stated in the issue that it may happen due to the credit crunch therefore the complete withdrawal of the army can result in the increase of the anti social elements again to harass the people and again the terrorist activities may rise.

Thus it is now on the part of the Super Power to rethink on the same decision or before leaving abolishment of such elements is also a must for the armed forces as did in Abottabad.

Weakness of Karzai Government Karzai Government is backed by different countries and has acquired the full support of the neighbouring countries as India declared a $ 500 million aid for reconstruction of Afghanistan but as seen till now that since the president rule has been established but Mr. Karzai, being the president of the country still is not able to provide full security to the people of Afghanistan and since the country is not having its own army therefore it is just a namesake government and still the proper system of democracy has not been established till now. Thus the problem here lies that the government is weak and helpless but it should take the advantage of the support provided by different countries.

Role of Pakistan in supporting the terrorist groups As earlier discussed in the facts about the double game of Pakistan in supporting the terrorist groups and preventing them from reconciling with the Karzai as well as the Indian Government is a main problem since the Taliban is not yet willing to talk for the peace deal and nor are the influential minority Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara tribal leaders expected to support the deal and other hand they are working as brokers or spoilers to gain the public support in the name of jihad. Recently the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff had bluntly accused Pakistan's InterService Intelligence (ISI) of maintaining ties with the Haqqani terror network. So, the role of Pakistan and its supporting agencies along with the terrorists group can be a main source to hinder the peace talks between the two nations and the Taliban.

How do Afghanistan and India get affected from the Taliban Forces?
The main problem of the affect lies that if the peace deal fails and as decided by the States, if the armed forces are completely withdrawn then the Taliban may regain the force there and therefore the problem of stability may re arise in the country and since the Taliban trains the youths to fight and destroy, and through this method the country will progress in a single way that is TERRORISM and that will affect India too as Pakistan will use these forces to spread cross border terrorism. So, the problem here lays in stop the rising Taliban power and the worst thing is provocation of Taliban from Pakistan and India has no way out to convince them.

Solutions by justification
By Yash Sampat With the death of bin Laden, the endgame in Afghanistan has begun, and India is making its first move. This visit was Singh's first to Afghanistan since 2005, and by aiding the Indian government has shown a keen interest in reconciliation but convincing the terrorist forces is a challenging thing here and since there has been a constant provocation by Pakistan against India; India just views Taliban just as a pawns used by Pakistan against India to promote cross border terrorism Thus now there lies a choice among both the countries to either chose violence or continue with the peace. But apart from all India should be concerned with its own talks and should not interfere in the talks between Taliban and Karzai Government otherwise it may create a problem again as previously the country had witnessed in form of LTTE in Sri Lanka. Therefore the Indian government should be more concerned about the safety of its own citizens and safety of the country.

Learning outcomes
From the above facts, issues raised and the problems identified the main learning that took place is that the Indian government is making its move for peace talks to take place and thus ensure stability in Afghanistan as well as in India too but convincing Taliban and moreover convincing Pakistan to stop sponsoring them for the increasing the jihadi terrorism is a main challenge in front of the Indian Prime Minister, and with the more development of the foreign strategies and implementing the same, much can be achieved if everything is looked upon in a perfect manner and it is essential to first ensure safety of Indian citizens on the part of the Indian government though aiding Afghanistan. From the point of view of Karzai Government, It is essential for him to be assertive but as such for now he is helpless and even the Super power United States should provide a good support for the empowerment of Karzai Government and facilitate the development of Afghanistan.