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Wulsin for Congress

From: Margie Omero Re: Recent polling results

Date: June 29, 2008 According to our recent poll in Ohio’s 2nd Congressional district, Victoria Wulsin is within striking distance of Congresswoman Jean Schmidt, who is unpopular and viewed as ineffective. Voters are Ready for Change Voters are pessimistic about the national climate. Seven in ten (71%) say the country is on the wrong track, with fewer than two in ten (16%) sensing it is going in the right direction. This pessimism extends across demographic lines. Among no subgroup we examined were voters more optimistic than pessimistic about the national direction. This pervasive dissatisfaction does not bode well for Schmidt.

Schmidt’s Image Is Weak
Schmidt image
70

Schmidt Viewed as Ineffective, Unpopular

Schmidt’s popularity is 60 anemic. Voters are as 8 likely to dislike her 45 45 50 (45% net unfavorable) 40 28 as like her (45% net 24 19 favorable). The 29 30 intensity of opinion 27 20 reveals further Schmidt 26 25 10 weakness. More are 16 14 11 7 “very unfavorable” 0 Net fav Net unfav DK/nvr hr d Net positive Net negativ e DK (26%) toward her as Darker shade = stronger intensity “very favorable” (16%). Strong incumbents strive for a favorable-to-unfavorable ratio of 2-to-1. Schmidt’s ratio is half that, at 1-to-1, as many (45%) are favorable toward her as unfavorable (45%).

Schmidt’s job ratings are even lower than her favorability numbers. Only one-third (33%) have a positive view of Schmidt’s performance in office, either “excellent” (7%) or “good” (27%). Over half (53%) have a negative view of her job performance. Again, this is a clear sign of weakness. Incumbents strive for a positive-to-negative ratio of 1.5to-1. But Schmidt falls quite short, with a ratio of 0.6-to-1. Even among Republicans, Schmidt’s job ratings are mediocre, at best (47% positive, 40% negative). As Many Want to Replace Schmidt as Re-elect Her Schmidt’s weak image translates into weak support for Schmidt in Would you vo te to re-elect Congresswoman Jean Schmidt, would you consider voting for November. When someone else, or would you vote to replace Congresswoman Jean Schmidt, or aren’t you asked whether they sure? would vote to re-elect DK/ref 16% Schmidt, only about a re-elect third (36%) said they 36% would. About as many (33%) would prefer to replace Schmidt; an additional 15% are 48% consider 48% consider willing to consider replace another/replace 33% someone other than consider another Schmidt (48% total). 15% Schmidt is even weak with her partisan base. Just half of Republicans (50%) said they would vote to re-elect Schmidt.
More Will At Least Consider Replacing Schmidt Than Want To Re-Elect Her

Wulsin Within Striking Distance
Wulsin Is Within Single Digits Of Schmidt
Schmidt Falls Well Short Of Majority Support
Congressional vote
70 Schmidt advantage: +8 Schmidt advantage: +8 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Wulsin Schmidt Darker shade = stronger intensity

41% net Schmidt 33% net Wulsin 5 5
5 10

24

26

6% net Krikorian
2 2 2 Krikorian

19

Undec

In the horserace, Wulsin is within single digits of Schmidt (33% Wulsin, 41% Schmidt), despite months of attacks from her Democratic Primary opponent and from Schmidt herself. Schmidt’s low vote share includes initially undecided voters who, when prompted, lean toward Schmidt. A safe incumbent strives for at least majority support

Momentum Analysis (June 2008)

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before leaners are included. Schmidt fails to reach this important threshold. Schmidt does not receive majority support in any subgroup except Republicans, among whom she only receives 62%, and the small group of voters who think the country is on the right track (72%). But even Schmidt’s performance within her own party is weak, as Wulsin has done a better job of consolidating Democrats (70% of Democrats vote for Wulsin). Wulsin is within striking distance, and our poll shows that, with sufficient resources, she can defeat Jean Schmidt in November.
This memo reflects the findings of a survey of 500 likely voters in Ohio’s 2nd Congressional District. Interviews were conducted by telephone, June 24-26, 2008. A voter file was used, further screened for likely November 2008 voters. The margin of error for the sample overall is +/-4.4%. The margin of error for subgroups is larger.

Momentum Analysis (June 2008)

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