June 2, 2008 To: Interested Parties Fr: John Anzalone / Jeff Liszt Re: Summary of Polling in Illinois CD-11 Democratic State Senator Debbie

Halvorson is in a strong position to win this open-seat race. She leads Republican Martin Ozinga by 11 points, and the worsening national political environment has created an excellent opportunity for Democrats here. Bush has tarnished the Republican brand, the district’s partisanship is trending Democratic, and by wide margins voters trust Democrats more on the issues that matter most. Halvorson currently leads Ozinga by 11 points • • • Halvorson leads Martin Ozinga by a 43% to 32% margin, with Green Party candidate Jason Wallace at 6%. Halvorson still has excellent expansion potential. Among undecided voters (18%) Democrats lead the generic ballot 33% to 19%. In order to solidify and expand her support, Halvorson will need the resources to match Ozinga’s ability to self-fund his campaign. When voters hear basic information about both candidates, Halvorson’s vote expands seven points and she leads Ozinga 50% to 39%.

Democrats are gaining strength in this district • Although this is a Republican-held seat, Democrats lead 42% to 36% on the generic ballot. Two-thirds (67%) of the district have no primary voting history with either party, and among these unaffiliated voters Democrats lead 44% to 33% on the generic ballot. Democrats also hold a 41% to 35% advantage in partisan self-identification. Just 16% of voters say things in the United States are moving in the right direction – largely because of the poor performance of George W. Bush and the Republicans in Congress. Bush receives just a 36% favorable / 63% unfavorable rating. Republicans in Congress receive a 40% favorable / 50% unfavorable rating, compared with 49% favorable / 42% unfavorable for Democrats.

The election will be fought out on Democratic turf • The economy dominates the most important issue question (52% list it as their first or second choice). By a 45% to 32% margin, voters trust Democrats more on the economy, and Halvorson leads 52% to 21% among voters who list the economy as their first or second most important issue. Democrats hold a 26-point advantage on ending the war in Iraq (50% Democrat / 35% Republican, and a 35-point advantage on making healthcare more affordable (51% Democrat / 16% Republican),

Anzalone Liszt Research conducted n=500 telephone interviews with likely 2008 general election voters in Illinois CD-11. Interviews were conducted between May 18-22, 2008. Respondents were selected at random with interviews apportioned geographically based on expected voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error is ±4.4% with a 95% confidence level.