MASON-DIXON® KENTUCKY POLL

JANUARY 2023
Polling in Kentucky since 1987

EMBARGO: Newspaper Publication – Thursday, January 26, 2023

Broadcast & Internet Release – 6 am EST, Thursday, January 26, 2023

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – January 2023 Kentucky Poll

 MAJORITY OF VOTERS APPROVE OF BESHEAR JOB PERFORMANCE
INCUMBENT HOLDS LEADS OVER ALL MAJOR GOP CANDIDATES

Governor Andy Beshear’s performance rating remains strong among Kentucky

voters. Statewide, 61% approve of the job he is doing, while only 29% disapprove
and 10% are unsure.

BESHEAR JOB RATING

10%
29% 61% APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

Beshear’s numbers remain steady from last January and, in fact, show a slight uptick.

BESHEAR JOB RATING APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

February 2021 55% 36% 9%

January 2022 60% 32% 8%
January 2023 61% 29% 10%

Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – January 2023 Kentucky Poll

The incumbent Democrat holds significant leads over each of the four leading
Republican challengers.

Daniel Cameron runs the strongest against Beshear in a general election match-up,
but still trails by nine-points (49%-40%).

Beshear has double-digit leads over the other leading GOP contenders, topping
Kelly Craft by 57%-32%, Ryan Quarles 52%-35% and Mike Harmon 53%-33%.

2023 GOVERNOR VOTE 2023 GOVERNOR VOTE

11% 11% BESHEAR

40% 49% BESHEAR 32% 57% CRAFT
CAMERON
UNDECIDED
UNDECIDED

2023 GOVERNOR VOTE 2023 GOVERNOR VOTE

13% BESHEAR 14%

35% 52% QUARLES 33% 53% BESHEAR
UNDECIDED HARMON
UNDECIDED

Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – January 2023 Kentucky Poll

Cameron is the clear early Republican frontrunner, holding a 20-point lead over Craft
(39%-13%). Statewide elected officials Quarles (8%) and Harmon (5%) are both
currently only garnering single digit support. However, a significant number of likely
GOP primary voters (28%) remain undecided.

GOP PRIMARY VOTE

CAMERON
28% CRAFT
39%
QUARLES
HARMON
7%
OTHERS
5%
8% 13% UNDECIDED

Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – January 2023 Kentucky Poll

 STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION

Do you recognize the name ________?

(IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________?

RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE DON'T

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL RECOGNIZE

Andy Beshear 52% 23% 21% 4%

Daniel Cameron 30% 18% 35% 17%

Kelly Craft 14% 9% 24% 53%

Ryan Quarles 12% 5% 26% 57%

Mike Harmon 9% 3% 27% 61%

Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – January 2023 Kentucky Poll

 *** 404 LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ***
GOP NAME RECOGNITION
Do you recognize the name ________?
(IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________?

RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE DON'T

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL RECOGNIZE

Daniel Cameron 42% 6% 37% 15%

Kelly Craft 18% 3% 41% 38%

Ryan Quarles 17% 1% 37% 45%

Mike Harmon 13% 2% 34% 51%

QUESTION: If the 2023 Republican primary election for governor were held today, would you
vote for: (ORDER ROTATED)

Daniel Cameron 39%

Kelly Craft 13%
Ryan Quarles 8%
Mike Harmon 5%
Alan Keck 2%
Eric Deters 2%
Bob DeVore 1%
David Cooper 1%
Robbie Smith 1%
Jacob Clark -
Dennis Ray Ormerod -
Johnny Ray Rice -
Undecided ( NOT READ) 28%

Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – January 2023 Kentucky Poll

QUESTION: If the 2023 general election for governor were held today. For whom would you vote if the
candidates were Andy Beshear, the Democrat, and Daniel Cameron, the Republican?

GENDER PARTY REG

STATE MEN WOMEN DEMS REPS INDS

BESHEAR 49% 46% 52% 84% 19% 36%

CAMERON 40% 44% 37% 8% 69% 46%
UNDECIDED 11% 10% 11% 8% 12% 18%

QUESTION: If the 2023 general election for governor were held today. For whom would you vote if the
candidates were Andy Beshear, the Democrat, and Kelly Craft, the Republican?

GENDER PARTY REG

STATE MEN WOMEN DEMS REPS INDS

BESHEAR 57% 54% 60% 87% 31% 43%

CRAFT 32% 38% 27% 4% 57% 38%
UNDECIDED 11% 8% 13% 9% 12% 19%

QUESTION: If the 2023 general election for governor were held today. For whom would you vote if the
candidates were Andy Beshear, the Democrat, and Ryan Quarles, the Republican?

GENDER PARTY REG

STATE MEN WOMEN DEMS REPS INDS

BESHEAR 52% 48% 55% 85% 23% 38%

QUARLES 35% 42% 29% 5% 62% 43%
UNDECIDED 13% 10% 16% 10% 15% 19%

QUESTION: If the 2023 general election for governor were held today. For whom would you vote if the
candidates were Andy Beshear, the Democrat, and Mike Harmon, the Republican?

GENDER PARTY REG

STATE MEN WOMEN DEMS REPS INDS

BESHEAR 53% 46% 59% 85% 25% 39%

HARMON 33% 41% 26% 4% 59% 38%
UNDECIDED 14% 13% 15% 11% 16% 23%

Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – January 2023 Kentucky Poll

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of Andy Beshear’s job performance as governor?

APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

STATE 61% 29% 10%

REGION APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

Louisville Metro 66% 23% 11%

Lexington/Blue Grass 63% 27% 10%
Northern Kentucky 58% 33% 9%
Eastern Kentucky 58% 35% 7%
Western Kentucky 59% 29% 12%

GENDER ID: APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

Male 55% 37% 8%

Female 66% 22% 12%

AGE APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

<50 63% 24% 13%

50+ 59% 33% 8%

PARTY REGISTRATION APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

Democrat 84% 9% 7%
Republican 41% 46% 13%
Independent 53% 38% 9%

Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – January 2023 Kentucky Poll

 HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. of Jacksonville,
Florida from January 18 through January 23, 2023. A total of 625 registered
Kentucky voters were interviewed statewide by telephone

Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Kentucky

voter registration list that included both land-line and cell phone numbers.
Quotas were assigned to reflect voter registration by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is

no more than ±4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent
probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were
surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or
party grouping.

This poll also included an oversample of 404 likely Republican primary voters.
These voters were only asked the questions relative to the Republican
gubernatorial primary election. The margin for error of the primary results is ±5
percentage points.

Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – January 2023 Kentucky Poll

 DEMOGRAPHICS

PARTY REGISTRATION:

Democrat 273 (44%)

Republican 287 (46%)
Independent or Other 65 (10%)

GENDER ID:
Male 304 (49%)
Female 319 (51%)
Other 2

AGE:
18-34 94 (15%)
35-49 193 (31%)
50-64 183 (29%)
65+ 154 (25%)
Refused 1

RACE:
White/Caucasian 541 (88%)
Black/African-American 67 (10%)
Other/Refused 17 (2%)

REGION:
Louisville Metro 150 (24%)
Lexington/Bluegrass 110 (18%)
Northern Kentucky 75 (12%)
Eastern Kentucky 140 (22%)
Western Kentucky 150 (24%)

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – January 2023 Kentucky Poll

 KENTUCKY POLL REGIONS

LOUISVILLE METRO: Voters in Jefferson, Bullitt, Oldham, Trimble, Henry, Shelby,

Spencer and Nelson counties.

LEXINGTON/BLUEGRASS: Voters in Fayette, Woodford, Franklin, Anderson, Scott,

Harrison, Bourbon, Nicholas, Clark, Madison, Montgomery, Garrard, Jessamine,
Boyle, Mercer, Washington, Marion, Powell and Estill counties.

NORTHERN KENTUCKY: Voters in Boone, Kenton, Campbell, Gallatin, Carroll,

Owen, Grant, Pendleton, Bracken and Robertson counties

EASTERN KENTUCKY: Voters in Jackson, Rockcastle, Lincoln, Casey, Taylor, Green,

Metcalfe, Adair, Russell, Cumberland, Clinton, Wayne, McCreary, Whitley, Laurel,
Pulaski, Monroe, Mason, Fleming, Bath, Menifee, Wolfe, Breathitt, Perry, Leslie,
Harlan, Bell, Knox, Clay, Owsley, Lee, Letcher, Knott, Pike, Floyd, Martin, Johnson,
Magoffin, Morgan, Rowan, Elliott, Lewis, Carter, Greenup, Boyd and Lawrence
counties.

WESTERN KENTUCKY: Voters in Fulton, Hickman, Carlisle, Ballard, McCracken,

Graves, Marshall, Calloway, Livingston, Lyon, Trigg, Crittenden, Caldwell, Christian,
Hopkins, Webster, Union, Henderson, Daviess, McLean, Muhlenberg, Todd, Logan,
Butler, Ohio, Hancock, Breckinridge, Meade, Hardin, Grayson, Edmonson, Warren,
Simpson, Allen, Barren, Hart and LaRue counties.

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – January 2023 Kentucky Poll