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(IJCSIS) International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security, Vol. 9, No.

7, 2011

Analysis of Mobile Traffic based on Fixed Line Tele-Traffic Models


Abhishek Gupta
ME Student, Communication System Engineering Branch Jabalpur Engineering College, M.P., India abhishek2800@gmail.com

Bhavana Jharia
Associate Professor, Department of EC Jabalpur Engineering College M.P, India dr.bhavana.jharia@jec-jabalpur.org

Gopal Chandra Manna


Sr. General Manager BSNL, Jabalpur M.P, India gcmanna@gmail.com

Abstract An optimal radio network which provides and handle the largest amount of traffic for a given number of channels at a specified level of quality of service are designed by accurate traffic characterization and a precise analysis of mobile users behavior in terms of mobility and cellular traffic. This paper reviews the statistical characteristics of voice and message traffic. It investigated possible time-correlation of call arrivals in sets of GSM telephone traffic data and observes proximity of practical mobile traffic characteristics vis--vis classical fixed-line call arrival pattern, holding time distribution and inter-arrival pattern. The results indicated dominance of applicability of basic traffic model with deviations. A more realistic cause for call blocking experienced by users has also been analyzed. Keywords: GSM, Poisson distribution, Exponential distribution, Arrival pattern, Holding time Inter-arrival Pattern. I. INTRODUCTION GSM cellular network have undergone rapid developments in the past few years. The operators are facing challenges to maintain an adequate level of quality of service with growing number of end users and increasing demand for variety of services [1, 2]. The mobile communication system has a limited capacity; it can only support a limited amount of simultaneous traffic especially in peak hours with appropriate Grade of Service (GoS). In the past few Decades, several traffic models like Exponential model, Poisson models etc. for Cellular systems have been proposed for predicting the behavior of mobile traffic [3]. The mobile traffic models are derived by fitting the existing traffic data obtained from experience of land-line traffic. A scale-free user network model was used by researchers in the analysis of cellular network traffic, which Shown the clear connection between the user network behavior and the system traffic load [4]. The traffic performance of a Cellular system is strongly correlated with the behavior of its mobile

users. However, In previous models the random variation of the real traffic behaviors are unknown or simply not taken into account in the modeling process, such models fall short of a clear Connection with the actual physical processes involves that are responsible for the behavior observed in the traffic data. This paper focuses on the traffic Characterization of GSM network where differences between traditional model and practical data may occur. The selected GSM networks provided a good conversational service to a population of mobile users in both dense urban area like Calcutta and the other at rural area at North Eastern province of India. A few sets of GSM traffic data has been collected during January 2011 from both areas and were subjected to analysis in present research work. The outline of this paper is organized as follows: section II Describes the overview of the previous or classical models for describing traffic characterization in mobile networks. Section III introduces analytical approach of real traffic data to outline the statistical method of distribution for arrival processes and the channel holding time. Section IV traffic analysis result are presented. Section V Concludes the paper. II.BASIC TRAFFIC MODELLS AND PREVIOUS WORK The traditional telephone traffic theory, developed for wired Networks, call arrivals to a local exchange are usually modeled as a Poissons process. The process assumes 1) stationary arrival rate since the user population served by the exchange is very large and 2) has negligible correlation among users. These pair of assumptions is also applicable in cellular networks for incoming calls. These assumptions leads to random traffic model shaped as Poisson process for analytic simplicity. According to Poisson distribution, the probability of n no of calls arrival in given time interval 0 to t is

Where,

is the arrival rate.

In research at [5], it has been shown that Poissons assumption might not be valid in wireless cellular networks for a Number of reasons like when we concentrating on small area; where possible correlation may occurs between users;

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(IJCSIS) International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security, Vol. 9, No. 7, 2011

presence of congestion; and the effect of handover occurs frequently etc. The second important parameter for mobile cellular network planning is the channel holding time. It can be defined as the time during which a new call occupies a channel in the given cell, and it is dependent on the mobility of the user. In the past, it has been widely assumed as the negative exponential distribution to describe the channel holding time [6]. The probability of holding a call by a further time dt after holding the call up to time t is

not specified, we consider all outgoing calls as call arrival in mobile network for analysis purpose. All Outgoing calls are initiated randomly; if a call arrives and the communication is successfully established, both the caller and the receiver will be engaged for certain duration. The duration of the holding time is also a random variable. Thus, the traffic load depends on the rate of call arrivals and the holding time for each call. Generally, Traffic characteristics of mobile network are typically measured in terms of the average activity during the busiest hour or peak hour of a day [15]. This paper presents a design approach to characterize the mobility related traffic parameters in the presence of real traffic conditions in urban area and rural area base on Cell coverage. This includes the distribution of the arrival processes and the channel holding time. We analyzed sets of GSM telephone traffic data, collected for billing and traffic monitoring purpose which include call arrival time i.e. (Termination point of call) and the duration of calls at particular cell site. In addition, we also consider traffic other then voice calls like SMS service which may also affect the network performance. Un-answered calls attempt could not be recorded and also no information was recorded to trace the user mobility between the cells, neither was they felt necessary, as totality of the calls were recorded and attributed to the originating cell. All unsuccessful repeated call attempts, the impact of handovers and congestion were not taken into consideration for present analysis. The different graphs have been plotted to find the relation between the actual data and the classical models. [A]. Analysis of peak traffic We plot the graph of total traffic offered in erlangs at each cell site. We had considered scale is discrete with one hour intervals to find the number of peaks occurs during the 24 hours intervals. Next, we have calculated the average traffic load, peak hour load and the peakdness factor to find the traffic variation and peakdness range for given number of channels. In our calculation, peakdness factor has been defined as

The hypothesis of negative exponentially distributed channel holding time is valid under certain circumstances [7]. The channel holding time has been also been showed to fit lognormal distributions better than the exponential one [8]. Also, several other works are also contradicted this simple assumption. In [9,10] the probability distribution that better fits empirical data, by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, was found to be a sum of lognormal distributions. In some other works, it is shown that the channel holding time is also affected by user mobility. It is characterized by the cell residence time i.e. period of stay of a call in a cell. The cell residence time also follows definite distribution pattern. The channel holding time distribution was derived analytically [11, 12, 13] when the cell residence time has Erlang or Hyper-Erlang distribution. A further empirical study on GSM telephone traffic data reported in [14] where answered call holding time and inter-arrival times were found to be best modeled by the lognormal-3 function, rather than by the Poisson and negative exponential distribution. All the studies thus could not unanimously declare the best option between the classic Poisson model and the exponential model for telephone traffic in cellular networks. In contrast, they suggested that call arrivals and holding time distribution may be significantly time-correlated, due to congestion, user mobility and possible correlation between neighboring users. Study of all previous work lead us to further investigate the exact correlation of recent mobile traffic behavior with classic models and to check whether the traffic characterization obtained would follow the previous behavior and models. Also, as a step ahead, if classical models are applicable as best fit, then the extent of percentage variation applicable for actual traffic data. III TRAFFIC CHARACTERIZATION AND ANALYSIS OF TRAFFIC DATA SETS. In a Mobile network, traffic refers to the accumulated number of communication channels occupied by all users. For each user, the call arrivals can be divided into two categories: incoming calls and outgoing calls. Since every incoming call for one user must be originated from an outgoing call of another user, we only need to consider outgoing calls from each user when we analyze the network traffic. Therefore, if

Ideally the value of peakdness factor lie within the range of 1 to 5 [16].Greater the range of peakdness factor means that server is over utilized and there may be chance of call drop. Total traffic characteristics depend upon actual traffic load carried by the server. This carried load consist of traffic other then voice service like SMS originated; which also affect the utilization of server performance. As a result it is important to evaluate the rate of the SMS service to predict the behavior of mobile users along with performance. Also, now a days, several companies offer bulk messages delivery in slack hour at very cheap cost. As a result, number of users may use this service at redundant which may affect the quality of the voice service provided by the operators.

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(IJCSIS) International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security, Vol. 9, No. 7, 2011

The increasing competition may also motivate the operators to compromise the voice service quality and as a result there may be increase in call drop rate. To find the exact traffic, we must consider the nature of SMS service used by the mobile users.

Fig 2.Call Arrival pattern for ideal Poisson distribution The fig 2 shows the call arrival pattern of practical data with arrival rate of 20 at a particular hour. The graph has been extended to predict probability distribution of arrival of 37 calls during the hour with mean arrival rate of 20. The following relation was used to draw the graphFig 1.Actual Carried traffic (in erlangs) and No. of SMS originated at each hour.

Fig 1 shows the No. of SMS generated at each hour along with carried traffic load. It shows the correlation between the maximum Number of SMS generated and actual traffic (voice) load to match with peak hour traffic or during slack hours. From this observation, we can find the exact No. of TCH (Traffic channels) and SDCCH (Stand alone Dedicated control Channel) Channels require to serve the given traffic load.

Where both mean and variance is equal to T

[B]. Verification of Poisson Model


In this section we examine the relevance and verification of Poisson Model. As discussed above, the Incoming call arrival rate follows the traditional Poisson distribution where the call arrivals in one second have to be perfectly uncorrelated with the Call arrival in other seconds [17].For this analysis, the arrival rates of incoming calls have to be determined from the collected data sets and tried to correlate with Poisson distribution model. The arrival rate of calls is (t) and it has pseudo periodic trend for both the urban and rural area and are found approximately same at two different days. The probability distributions for actual call arrivals plotted against Ideal Poisson arrival in one peak hour has been shown in fig 3 and corresponding percentage variation between the ideal and actual pattern are shown in table2. Fig 3. The distribution of call arrival with Ideal arrival rate

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(IJCSIS) International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security, Vol. 9, No. 7, 2011

[C]. Analysis of Inter-arrival traffic behavior


In all previous work Interarrival (time between successive calls) rate are characterized and best fitted by exponential distribution model. We plot and analyzed the graph of successive arrival call time of peak hours and compared them by fitting into the exponential models. The exponential model for inter-arrival rate are characterize by [16]

The exponential variation of holding time included the property of Normal distribution. We have traced the busy hours of each cell to get maximum number of calls for a correct assessment of holding time distribution. The pattern obtained closely follows the normal distribution pattern. Therefore we adapted normal distribution for characterizing the holding time along with peaks duration occurring at the mean value of distribution and deviation factor (variance) to shows the actual nature of channel holding time. The probability distribution function of f(x) of normal distribution are define as

= . e

Where represent the arrival rate of calls The Sample inter-arrival exponential model of peak hour are obtained from a actual data sets of cell id -15231A

By using the normal distribution we plot and analyzed the characteristics of holding time distribution of peak hours.

Fig. 3 Inter-arrival Graphical Analysis. In Fig 4 the pattern obtained can be easily analyzed and compare with standard (exponential) model to give actual idea about the variation of real time traffic characteristics. Here the value of R (.98) shows the error or variation of real pattern with respect to Standard model.
2

[D]. Holding time distribution.


The most important parameter in any cellular traffic analysis is holding or service time distribution .Generally; in Common it is characterize by negative exponential distribution. Mathematically, its shows that there is larger number of calls of small duration as compare to the longer duration. The ideal negative exponential models are represented by P (t<T) = e
t

Fig 4.Actual Holding time Distribution. As seen from fig 4. The holding time characteristics do not religiously follow the normal distribution. This is because as Shown from previous observations that the maximum number of calls (in peak hours) does not contribute maximum traffic i.e. holding time is larger during slack hours which support the normal distribution in part.

Where represent the call arrival rate

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(IJCSIS) International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security, Vol. 9, No. 7, 2011

IV. RESULT AND DISCUSSION: After analysis of all the 25 cells data recorded on 14 Jan and 20 Jan 2011 and calculations made there after, average traffic and peaked ness factors were calculated; results of such 10 sample cells shown in the table 1. Table 1. Peak hour analysis of Sample Cells for SMS
S . N O . CELL ID PEAK TRAFFI C HOUR PEAK DENE SS VALU E AVERGE TRAFFI C IN ERLANG PEAK SMS HOUR NO OF SMS

Table 2. Analysis of Call arrival,Inter-arrival and the Call holding time distribution (10 sample cells).

S . N o .

Cell ID

Call Arri val % varia tion

Intera rrival error rate ref Exp model (R2)

Call Holding Time (Normal distribution) % Mean Mean Value Short Dev Durat in sec in sec ion Calls

1 1.41 1.52 1.56 7pm-8pm 7pm-8pm 9pm10pm 00am --1am 2pm-3pm 4pm-5pm 7pm-8pm 2pm-3pm 7pm-8pm 7pm-8pm 23 2 115 3 72 4 46 33 7 16 48 134 19 16 8 9 1 0 5 6

1 M1170 2B 2 M1141 3C 3 M1013 2F 4 M1003 2D 5 R15751 J 6 R15401 T 7 R15451 A 8 R15521 V 9 R30071 X 1 R15301 0 W

7pm-8pm 8pm-9pm 9pm-0pm 9pm-10pm 2pm-3pm 7am-8am 7pm-8pm 6pm-7pm 7pm-8pm 7pm-8pm

2.12 2.74 3.50

M1170 2B M1141 3C M1013 2F M1003 2D R15751 J R15401 T R15451 A R15521 V R30071 X R15301 W

193.73 11.25 5.02 11.76 12.42 5.86 19.65 13.45 18.12 7.38 6.09 0.957 0.974 0.982 0.982 0.989 0.968 0.985 0.996 0.997 0.967 264.75 293.76 329.46 205.41 167.21 275.56 108.09 167.73 140.55 301.86 424.91 403.37 415.92 416.95 258.82 382.97 236.39 211.64 212.67 69.64 75.43 71.64 73.07 76.36 73.04 70.90 75.18 72.54 73.77

2.37 2.43 1.96 2.56 2.60 2.19 2.62

0.67 1.29 2.72 1.64 4.68 3.24 0.88

The Result Shown in table 1 verified that there is more than one peak hours occurs in a day with designated busy hour occurs between 7am-10am in morning and late in evening between 6pm-9pm for different cells. At the same time we also find that peakdness is nearly in the range of 2 to 5 which establishes that the peak traffic to average traffic ratio vary nearly in large range. Another important result we find (from the graph and table) of SMS behavior of users that; in more than 60 percent cases; the number of SMS in busy hours are actually high as compared to other times. This is a major reason of higher call drop in peak hours when channel measurement reports are not available to BSC due to long messages.

Analysis of the table and Graph of Call arrival pattern of all cells at peak hours , it is found that the arrival rate approximately follows the Poisson models with a percent variation between 5- 20 with respect to ideal Poisson nature for a given probability. This Conclusion is estimated by assuming the variable arrival rate of different cells. However there may be chances of more than 20 percent variation occurs due to very high variable arrival rate but still the applicability of poison model found perfectly with given variable arrival rate as compare to other models. As obtained in table 2 and graph the Graphical representation of the inter-arrival pattern follows nearly the exponential models. The Critical examination of each cell at peak hours reveals a variation between 0.01 to 0.10 with respect to ideal models.

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From the table 2 it is found that the channel holding time closely follow normal distribution in peak hour observation of the day. This is evident due to good number of calls with duration nearly zero (below the mean value of duration) i.e. Short calls are observed more then 70 percent of total calls. Short channel holding time can be attributed to the users behavior and the operator commercial policy. V. CONCLUSION After analyzing all cell data it is stated that if issues like congestion, handover calls etc are neglected, the Poisson model is still adequate to describe realistically telephone traffic in cellular networks also. The Call holding time is better fitted in normal distribution with appreciable number of short calls below mean whereas long calls are fewer in number. The variance observed longer than mean value which indicates area covered by the cell is of mixed locality with more offices and less residence. SMS busy hours of the day are observed same as voice busy hour also in most cases. This establishes that there is more need of traffic channels to handle the traffic load and control channels to meet SMS load at same time in order to meet given quality of service requirements. This statistical analysis provides guidelines for future framework study which, through further research work, can develop a generic model that can be customized and parameterized by any operator for planning and development of their Cellular networks to save cost and maximize performance. REFRENCES. [1] A. Leon-Garcia, I. Widjaja, Communication Networks: Fundamental Concepts and Key Architectures, McGrawHill,New York, 2000. [2] K. Anurag, D. Manjunath, J. Kuri, Communication Networking: An Analytical Approach, Elsevier, Morgan Kaufmann,Amsterdam, Los Altos, CA, 2004 [3] J.C. Bellamy, Digital Telephony, third ed., Wiley, New York, 2000. [4] Y. Xia, C.K. Tse, W.M. Tam, F.C.M. Lau, M. Small, Scale-free user network approach to telephone network traffic analysis, Phys.Rev. E 72 (2005) 026116. [5].Stefano Bregni, Roberto Ci0ffi,Maurizio Decina An empirical study on Time correlation of GSM telephone Traffic IEEE Transactions on Wireless Communications, Vol. No.7, No. 9, September 2008.

[6] Roch A.Gurin, Channel occupancy time distribution in a cellular radiosystem, IEEE Transactions on Vehicular Technology, vol. vt-35, no. 3, August 1987. [7] Daehyoung Hong, Stephen S. Rappaport, Traffic model and performance analysis for cellular mobile radio telephone systems with prioritized and nonprioritized handoff procedures, IEEE Transactions on Vehicular Technology, vol. vt-35, no. 3, August 1986. [8] Francisco Barcelo, Javier Jordan, Channel holding time distribution in cellular telephony, Electronics Letters, vol. 34 no. 2, pp. 146-147, 1998. [9] F. Barcel and J. Jordan, Channel holding time distribution in public telephony system (PAMR and PCS)," IEEE Trans. Veh. Technol., vol. 49, no. 5, pp. 16151625, Sept. 2000. [10] C. Jedrzycky and V. C. M. Leung, Probability distribution of channel holding time in cellular telephony system," in Proc. IEEE Veh. Technol. Conf., May 1996. [11] Y. Fang, Hyper-Erlang distributions and traffic modeling in wireless and mobile networks," in Proc. IEEE Wireless Commun. Networking Conference (WCNC), Sept. 1999. [12] Y. Fang and I. Chlamtac, Teletraffic analysis and mobility modeling ofPCS networks," IEEE Trans. Commun., vol. 47, no. 7, pp. 10621072, July 1999 [13] J. A. Barria and B. H. Soong, A Coxian model for channel holding time distribution for teletraffic mobility modelling," IEEE Commun. Lett., vol.4, no. 12, pp. 402404, Dec. 2000. [14] A. Pattavina and A. Parini, Modelling voice call interarrival and holding time distributions in mobile networks," in Proc. 19th International Teletraffic Congress (ITC), Aug. 2005. [15] J.C. Bellamy, Digital Telephony, third ed., Wiley, New York, 2000.[16]. Morino mannis 1980 Basis Traffic analysis [16]. Roberta R Martine 1993, Basic Traffic analysis1st Ed, Prentice Hall, Inc, AT & T. [17] Rappaport, T. S., 2002. "Wireless Communications: Principles andPractice , 2nd Ed.", Prentice Hall, Inc. , Upper Saddle River, NJ.

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AUTHOR PROFILE Abhishek Gupta received his B.E. degree in Electronics and Telecommunication Engineering from Gyan Ganga institute of Science and Technology Jabalpur (M. P.) in 2008. Currently, he is pursuing his M. E. from the Department of Electronics and Telecommunication Engineering, Govt. Engineering College Jabalpur.His research interest includes Computer networks and Future generation in mobile communication System.

Bhavana Jharia received her B.E. degree in Electronics and Telecommunication Engineering from Govt. Engineering College Jabalpur (M. P.) in 1987. She did her M.E. (Solid State Electronics) from University of Roorkee, Roorkee in 1998 and Ph.D. (VLSI Technology) from I.I.T. Roorkee in 2005. She joined the Department of Electronics and Telecommunication Engineering, Govt. Engineering College Jabalpur (M. P.) as faculty in 1990, where at present she is working as an Associate Professor. She has 25 publications in National, International referred Journals and Conferences. Her research interests are in Electronics Design and Simulation and Low Power VLSI Technology. She is a member of IE (I), CSI, VLSI Society of India, senior member of IACSIT and Life Member of ISTE. Dr. Gopal Chandra Manna is working as Senior General Manager (Head Quarters), Inspection Circle, BSNL, a wholly owned Company under Department of Telecommunications (DoT), Govt. of India. Dr. Manna has carried out extensive research on coverage issues of GSM, CDMA, WCDMA and WiMAX radio access. Study of Wireless Traffic and QoS estimation of Cognitive Radio are his current areas of research. In Addition, he has written several articles on advanced telecommunications which has been published in national and international journals and symposiums. Dr. Manna is regularly invited as a panel expert, invited speaker, session chair etc. in seminars and conferences. Dr. Manna has developed and conducted one week course on Quality of Service Monitoring at Information and Communication Technologies Authority, Mauritius as

International Expert through Commonwealth Telecom Organisation London during August 2010. He had also delivered a speech on WiMAX coverage Evaluation at International Conference on Advanced Communications Technology 2011 at Seoul, Korea and chaired a session on Network Management. He had also delivered speech on ADSL at International Telecommunication Union seminar in 2000 at Bangalore, India. From 1997 to 2002, Dr. Manna has worked as Deputy General Manager in a Telecommunication Training Centre of DoT. He was first to install live training node for Internet Service Provider (ISP), designed training schedules and prepared handbook and lab practice schedules. He had conducted training programs for 5 batches of participants deputed by Asia Pacific Telecomm unity (APT) and 3 more exclusive batches for Sri Lankan Telecom. He had also conducted several seminars with international experts through UNDP/ITU projects. In 2000, he had delivered distinguished speech on ADSL in a seminar organized by ITU. During 1995 and 1996, Dr. Manna was posted in Telecommunication Engineering Centre (TEC) and developed Artificial Intelligence (AI) based software for E10B telephone exchanges named E10B Maintenance Advisor (E10BMAD). Dr. Manna had worked as Development Officer in WEBEL (erstwhile PHILLIPS) Telecommunication Industries during 1983-1984 after which he joined DoT and worked in different executive capacities up to 1994.He was awarded National Scholarship in 1973 based on school level examination and silver medal for performance in college. He had both graduated and post graduated in Radio Physics and Electronics Engineering from University of Calcutta and undergone trainings at Beijing University of Post and Telecom China in 1990 and DARTEC, Montreal, Canada in 1999.

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