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technique for the efficient functioning of the power system. This

paper presents a methodology for the short term load forecasting

problem using the similar day concept combined with fuzzy logic

approach and particle swarm optimization. To obtain the next-day

load forecast, fuzzy logic is used to modify the load curves of the

selected similar days of the forecast previous day by generating the

correction factors for them. These correction factors are then applied

to the similar days of the forecast day. The optimization of the fuzzy

parameters is done using the particle swarm optimization technique

on the training data set of the considered data set. A new Euclidean

norm with weight factors is proposed for the selection of similar days.

The proposed methodology is illustrated through the simulation

results on a typical data set.

Index Terms-- Euclidean norm, Fuzzy logic approach, Particle

swarm optimization, Short term load forecasting, similar day

method.

I. INTRODUCTION

OAD forecasting has been an integral part in the efficient

planning, operation and maintenance of a non interrupting

regulated power system. Short term load forecasting is

necessary for the control and scheduling operations of a power

system and also acts as inputs to the power analysis functions

such as load flow and contingency analysis [1]. Power utilities

in India still depend on the averaging of set of similar days for

short term load forecasting, the results of which are very far

from being accurate. Owing to this importance, various

methods have been reported, that includes linear regression,

exponential smoothing, stochastic process, ARMA models, and

data mining models [2]-[7]. Of late, artificial neural networks

have been widely employed for load forecasting. However,

there exist large forecast errors using ANN when there are

rapid fluctuations in load and temperatures [8]-[9]. In such

cases, forecasting methods using fuzzy logic approach have

been employed. In this paper, we propose an approach for

short term load forecasting problem, using a hybrid technique

combining the particle swarm optimization (PSO) and fuzzy

Dr Amit Jain, Research Assistant Professor, Head, Power Systems

Research Center at International Institute of Information Technology,

Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India (e-mail: amit@iiit.ac.in).

M. Babita Jain is PhD student at Power Systems Research Center,

International Institute of Information Technology, Hyderabad, Andhra

Pradesh, India (e-mail: babita_j2000@yahoo.com).

E. Srinivas MS by Research student, Power Systems Research Center at

International Institute of Information Technology, Hyderabad, Andhra

Pradesh, India (e-mail: srinivaset@iiit.ac.in).

logic approach. The PSO technique which roots from the

concept of Computational Intelligence capable of dealing with

complex, dynamic and poorly defined problems that AI has

problem with, has an advantage of dealing with the nonlinear

parts of the forecasted load curves, and also has the ability to

deal with the abrupt change in the weather variables such as

temperature, humidity and also including the impact of the day

type. In this method, we select similar days from the previous

days to the forecast day using Euclidean norm (based on

weights, which are calculated such that they hold the essence

of the earlier data) with weather variables [10]. There may be a

substantial discrepancy between the load on the forecast day

and that on similar days, even though the selected days are

very similar to the forecast day with regard to weather and day

type. Therefore, the selected similar days cannot be averaged

to obtain the load forecast. To avoid this problem, the

evaluation of similarity between the load on the forecast day

and that on similar days is done using fuzzy logic combined

with particle swarm optimization. Many methods have been

reported for the load forecast using fuzzy logic [12]-[14]. This

approach evaluates the similarity using the information about

the previous forecast day and previous similar days. The

similarity resulted with a high MAPE (mean average

percentage error) value. The fuzzy inference system is used for

the reduction of this MAPE and generation of suitable

correction factors. The fuzzy system thus generates a

correction factor for the load curve on a similar day to the

shape of that on the forecast day. The fuzzy parameters of the

fuzzy inference system are optimized using the PSO technique

implemented in the MATLAB program of the short term load

forecasting. The PSO technique is thus used to evolve the

initial best parameters for the fuzzy inference system. The

optimization of the fuzzy parameters using PSO is done using

the training data set of the available data set and the fuzzy

inference system with the optimized parameters is then used on

the testing data set. For the testing data set, first the correction

factors of load curves on similar days are calculated using the

optimized fuzzy inference system for the similar days of the

forecast previous day, then the forecast load is obtained by

averaging the corrected load curves on similar days using the

previous days correction factors. The correction factors are

obtained using the training data set and then they are applied to

the testing data set. The approach suitability is verified by

applying it to a typical real data set. The overall MAPE was

found to be very less (<0.03) for the considered data set. This

paper contributes to the short term load forecasting, as it shows

how the forecast can include the effect of weather variables,

temperature as well as humidity and day type using a new

Euclidean norm for the selection of the similar days and PSO

A Novel Hybrid Method for Short Term Load

Forecasting using Fuzzy Logic and Particle

Swarm Optimization

Amit Jain, Member, IEEE, M. Babita Jain, Member, IEEE and E. Srinivas

L

2010 International Conference on Power System Technology

978-1-4244-5939-1/10/$26.002010 IEEE

2

optimized fuzzy logic approach for obtaining the correction

factors to the similar days. The paper is organized as follows:

section II deals with the data analysis; section III gives the

overview of the proposed forecasting method, discussing the

selection of similar days using a new Euclidean norm and the

PSO optimization of the fuzzy inference system is presented;

section IV presents the optimization of fuzzy parameters using

particle swarm optimization; section V simulation results of the

proposed forecasting methodology followed by conclusions in

section VI.

II. VARIABLES IMPACTING THE LOAD PATTERN

The analysis on the monthly load and weather data helps in

understanding the variables, which may affect load

forecasting. The data analysis is carried out on data containing

hourly values of load, temperature, and humidity of 7 months.

In the analysis phase, the load curves are drawn and the

relationship between the load and weather variables is

established [11]. Also, the week and the day of the week

impact on the load is obtained.

A. Load Curves

The load curve for the month of May is shown in Fig. 1.

The observations from the load curves are as follows:

1. There exists weekly seasonality but the value of load

scales up and down.

2. The load curves on week days are similar

3. The load curves on the weekends are similar.

4. Days are classified based on the o following categories:

a. Normal week days (Tuesday - Friday)

b. Monday

c. Sunday

d. Saturday

Monday is accounted to be different to weekdays so as to take

care for the difference in the load because of the previous day

to be weekend.

B. Variation of Load with Temperature

Temperature is the most important weather variable that

affects the load. The deviation of the temperature variable

from a normal value results in a significant variation in the

load. Fig. 2 and Fig. 3 show the relationship between the

temperature and load. Fig. 2 shows a plot between the average

temperatures versus maximum demand. Fig. 3 shows the plot

between the average temperatures versus average demand. In

the plots the dot represents the actual values and the solid line

is the best fitted curve. The graphs show a positive correlation

between the load and temperature for the forecast month of

July i.e. demand increases as the temperature increases.

C. Variation of Load with Humidity

Another weather variable that affects the load level is

humidity. To study the effect of this particular weather

variable on load we plot the maximum demand versus average

humidity and the average demand versus average humidity

graphs as shown. Fig 4 shows the plot between the average

humidity versus maximum demand. Fig 5 shows the plot

between the average humidity versus average demand. From

the graphs it can be seen that there exists a positive correlation

between load and humidity for the forecast month of July i.e.

demand increases as the humidity increases.

3

D. Autocorrelation of Load

It is known that the load at a given hour is dependent not

only on the load on the previous hour but also on the load at

the same hour of the previous day. Hence, it is assumed that

the load curve is more or less similar to the load curve on the

previous day.

III. LOAD FORECASTING USING FUZZY LOGIC

A. Similar Day selection

In this paper, Euclidean norm with weight factors is used to

evaluate the similarity between the forecast day and the

searched previous days. Euclidean norm makes us understand

the similarity by using the expression based on the concept of

norm. Decrease in the Euclidean norm results in the better

evaluation of the similar days i.e., smaller the Euclidean norm

the more similar are the days to the forecast day. In general,

the Euclidean norm using maximum and minimum

temperatures along with the day type variable is used for the

evaluation of the similar days. But, the norm using maximum

and minimum temperatures is not efficient for the selection of

the similar days because humidity is also an important weather

variable as also shown in section II C.

In the present work, we have proposed a new Euclidean

norm to account for the humidity. The new Euclidean norm

uses average temperature, average humidity and day type with

weight factors to evaluate the similarity of the searched

previous days. The expression for the new Euclidean norm is

as follows:

2 2 2

1 max 2 3

( ) ( ) ( )

avg

EN w T w H w D = A + A + A (1)

max max max

p

T T T A = (2)

p

avg avg avg

H H H A = (3)

p

D D D A = (4)

Where, Tavg and H

avg

are the forecast day average

temperature and average humidity respectively. Also, Tpavg

and H

p

avg

are the average temperature and average humidity of

the searched previous days and w1, w

2

, w

3

are the weight

factors determined by least squares method based on the

regression model constructed using historical data [2]. The

similar days are selected from the previous 30 days of the

forecast day. The data selection is limited to account for the

seasonality of the data. The day types considered for the

methodology are 4(Tuesday-Friday), 3 (Monday), 2(Saturday),

1(Sunday);

B. Fuzzy Inference System

The load forecasting at any given hour not only depends on

the load at the previous hour but also on the load at the given

hour on the previous day. Also, the Euclidean norm alone is

not sufficient for the load forecast as the selected similar days

for the forecast day have considerably large mean absolute

percentage error (MAPE). Assuming same trends of

relationships between the previous forecast day and previous

similar days as that of the forecast day and its similar days, the

similar days can thus be evaluated by analyzing the previous

forecast day and its previous similar days.

The fuzzy inference system is used to evaluate the

similarity between the previous forecast days and previous

similar days resulting in correction factors, used to correct the

similar days of the forecast day to obtain the load forecast. To

evaluate this degree of similarity, three fuzzy input variables

for the fuzzy inference system are defined [10].

k k

L p ps

E L L = (5)

k k

T p ps

E T T = (6)

k k

H p ps

E H H = (7)

Where, L

p

and L

ps

are the average load of the previous

forecast day and the previous kth similar day, T

p

, T

ps

, H

p

, H

ps

show the value corresponding to temperature and humidity

respectively. E

L

, E

T

, E

H

take three fuzzy set values; Low (L),

Medium (M), High (H).The membership functions of the

input variables and output variable are as shown in Figs 6- 7.

The fuzzy rules for the inference system for the given fuzzy

variables are based on the generalized knowledge of the effect

of each variable on the load curve [11]. If the membership of

E

L

is U

E

L, that of E

T

is U

E

T and that of E

H

is U

E

H, the firing

strength, u, of the premise is calculated based on the min

operator. The firing strength of each rule is calculated as

follows:

min( , , )

L T H

i E i E i E i

u u u u = (8)

4

The membership function of an inferred fuzzy output

variable is calculated using a fuzzy centroid defuzzification

scheme to translate fuzzy output statements into a crisp output

value, Wk.

27 27

1 1

/

k k

k i i i

i i

W o u u

= =

=

(9)

The output value is expressed by W

k

which is the correction

factor for the load curve on the k* similar day to the shape on

the forecast day. W

k

is applied to each similar day and

corrects the load curve on similar days. The forecast next day

load curve L (t) is then given by averaging the corrected loads

on similar days.

k

1

1

( ) (1 ) ( )

N

k

s

k

L t W L t

N

=

= +

(10)

Where Lk

s

(t), is the power load at t' o clock on the

kth corrected similar day, N is the number of similar days and

t is hourly time from 1 to 24.

IV. OPTIMIZATION OF FUZZY PARAMETERS USING

PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION

PSO is a population-based optimization method first

proposed by Eberhart and Colleagues [15, 16]. Some of the

attractive features of PSO include the ease of implementation

and the fact that no gradient information is required. It can be

used to solve a wide array of different optimization problems.

Like evolutionary algorithms, PSO technique conducts search

using a population of particles, corresponding to

individuals. Each particle represents a candidate solution to

the problem at hand. In a PSO system, particles change

their positions by flying around in a multidimensional search

space until computational limitations are exceeded.

The PSO technique is an evolutionary computation

technique, but it differs from other well-known evolutionary

computation algorithms such as the genetic algorithms.

Although a population is used for searching the search space,

there are no operators inspired by the human DNA procedures

applied on the population. Instead, in PSO, the population

dynamics simulates a 'bird flock's' behavior, where social

sharing of information takes place and individuals can profit

from the discoveries and previous experience of all the other

companions during the search for food. Thus, each

companion, called particle, in the population, which is called

swarm, is assumed to 'fly' over the search space in order

to find promising regions of the landscape. For example, in

the minimization case, such regions possess lower function

values than other, visited previously. In this context, each

particle is treated as a point in a d-dimensional space, which

adjusts its own 'flying' according to its flying experience as

well as the flying experience of other particles (companions).

In PSO, a particle is defined as a moving point in hyperspace.

For each particle, at the current time step, a record is kept of

the position, velocity, and the best position found in the search

space so far.

The assumption is a basic concept of PSO [16]. In the PSO

algorithm, instead of using evolutionary operators such as

mutation and crossover, to manipulate algorithms, for a

d-variables optimization problem, a flock of particles are

put into the d-dimensional search space with randomly chosen

velocities and positions knowing their best values so far

(Pbest) and the position.

In the d-dimensional space, the velocity of each particle,

adjusted according to its own flying experience and the

other particle's flying experience. For example, the ith

particle is represented as xi = (x

i1

, xi2. . . b

id

) in the

dimensional space. The best previous position of the i-th

particle is recorded and represented as:

Pbesti = (Pbesti 1, Pbest

i

,2 ,..., Pbest

id

)

The index of best particle among all of the particles in the

group is gbest

d

.The velocity for particle i is represented as vi

= (v

i

1, v . 2, . . . , v.

d

). The modified velocity and position of

each particle can be calculated using the current velocity and

the distance from Pbest

id

to gbest

d

as shown in the following

formulas [17]:

v[] = v[] + c1 * rand() * (pbest[] - present[]) + c2 *

rand() * (gbest[]-present[]) (11)

present[]=persent[]+v[] (12)

Where

v[] is the particle velocity, persent[] is the

current particle (solution). pbest [] and gbest[] are defined as

stated before. rand () is a random number between (0,1). c1, c2

are learning factors. Usually c1 = c2 = 2.

The evolution procedure of PSO Algorithms is shown in Fig.

8. Producing initial populations is the first step of PSO. The

population is composed of the chromosomes that are real

codes. The corresponding evaluation of populations called

the "fitness function". It is the performance index of a

population. The fitness value is bigger, and the performance is

better.

After the fitness function has been calculated, the fitness

value and the number of the generation determine whether or

not the evolution procedure is stopped (Maximum iteration

number reached?). In the following, calculate the Pbest of

each particle and Gbest of population (the best movement of

all particles). The update the velocity, position, gbest and pbest

of particles give a new best position (best chromosome in our

proposition).

5

Fig. 8 Evaluation procedure of PSO Algorithm

For the data set considered the fuzzy inference system has

been optimized for six parameters (maxima and minima of

each of the input fuzzy variable EL, ET, EH), considereing 49

particles. Hence each particle is a six dimensional one.The

initial values of the fuzzy inference system are obtained by

using the May and June data. These values are incorporated

into the fuzzy inference system to obtain the forecast errors of

June month.

The particle swarm optimization function accepts the

training data i.e. May and June 99, and the objective is to

reduce the RMS MAPE error of the forecast days(June 99)

using May data. The RMS MAPE is taken as the fitness

function and the particle swarm optimizer function is run for

100 iterations(by then the RMS MAPE) is more or less fixed.

After every iteration the optimizer updates the latest particle

position using the optimizer equations based on the PBest and

Gbest of the previous iteration if the fitness function value is

better than the previous one. The parameters thus obtained

after the PSO optimization are the final fuzzy input parameters

and these are used to forecast the load of the testing data set

i.e. July month.

V. SIMULATION RESULTS

The performance of the method for the short term load

forecast is tested by using the 7 months data, from January to

July of a particular data set used. The method has been

simulated using the fuzzy logic toolbox available in

MATLAB. Load forecasting is done for the month of July.

The fuzzy inference system is designed for the computer

simulation. First, fuzzy parameters are s based on the existing

training data set, as described in the above section. Hence,

the data of the month June has been used for the selection

of similar days. The number of similar days used for the

forecasting is five.

The initial parameters of the fuzzy membership functions

are determined through the simulation of the load curve

forecasting in the previous month to the forecast day. The

parameters of the membership functions for the input and

output variables for the next-day load curve forecasting for the

month of June are as follows:

TABLE1

PARAMETERS OF MEMBERSHIP FUNCTIONS OF INPUT

VARIABLES

TABLE2

PARAMETERS OF MEMBERSHIP FUNCTIONS OF OUTPUT

VARIABLES

(b1,b2,b3) (-0.3,-0.25,-0.2)

(b3,b4,b5) (-0.2,-0.15,-0.10)

(b4,b5,b6) (-0.15,-0.10,-0.05)

(b5,b6,b7) (-0.10,-0.05,0)

(b6,b7,b8) (-0.05,0,0.05)

(b7,b8,b9) (0,0.05,0.1)

(b8,b9,b10) (0.05,0.1,0.15)

(b9,b10,b11) (0.1,0.15,0.2)

(b10,b11,b12) (0.15,0.2,0.25)

(b11,b12,b13) (0.2,0.25,0.3)

Second, the fuzzy parameters are optimized using PSO

algorithm only to find the optimal range of the membership

functions (FIS with PSO algorithms). Last, the optimized

fuzzy inference system on the PSO algorithm is used to

forecast the load of the month of July which is the testing

data set. After the optimization process, the optimal values

of a1, a2, a3, a4, a5 and a6 in FIS with PSO algorithm are

calculated and are given in the Table 3.

TABLE3

PSO OPTIMIZED FUZZY PARAMETERS

(a1,a2) (a3,a4) (a5,a6)

(-17274,15766) (-57.69, 35.55) (-7.25, 24.27)

TABLE4

PARAMETERS OF PSO ALGORITHM

Population Size 49

Number of Iteration 100

w

max 0.6

w .

mim

0. 1

c

1

= c

2 1.5

The forecasted results of 4 representative days of the July

month in a week are presented. These days represents four

categories of classified days of week in the present

methodology namely Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

The humidity variations for the days to be forecasted i.e.

23

rd

- 27

th

July are as shown in Fig. 9.

(a1,a2) (a3,a4) (a5,a6)

(-1000,1000) (-20,20) (-20,20)

6

Fig. 9 Humidity curve between 23

rd

July-27

th

July

0 5 10 15 20 25

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2

x 10

4

Load curves of July 24

Hours

L

o

a

d

(

M

W

)

Actual

Forecasted

Fig. 10 Load curves of July 24

0 5 10 15 20 25

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

x 10

4

Load curves of July 25

Actual

Forecasted

Fig. 11 Load curves of July 25

0 5 10 15 20 25

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2

x 10

4

Load curves of July 26

Actual

Forecasted

Fig. 12 Load curves of July 26

0 5 10 15 20 25

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2

2.1

x 10

4

Load curves of July 27

Actual

Forecasted

Fig. 13 Load curves of July 27

The forecast results deviation from the actual values are

represented in the form of MAPE. Mean Absolute Percentage

Error (MAPE) is defined as:

1

1

100

i i

N

A F

i

i

A

P P

MAPE

N P

=

(13)

P

A

, PF are the actual and forecast values of the load. N is the

number of the hours of the day i.e. N = 1, 2, . .24 With the

proposed method the MAPE error for the considered days, for

which forecasted results are shown in Fig. 9-12, is calculated

and these are as follows in Table 5:

TABLE5

MAPE OF FORECASTED RESULTS

Day MAPE Error

24 July (Saturday) 2.3574

25 July (Sunday) 1.9855

26 July (Monday) 1.7404

27 July (Tuesday) 1.391

In the present work, a novel PSO optimized fuzzy logic system for

short term load forecasting is developed to forecast the load for next

day. In the fuzzy inference system, the optimization of membership

functions was required, as it reduces the MAPE and so the input

parameters limits are adjusted in optimal values so as to give a

MAPE error of low values. The computer MATLAB

simulation demonstrates that the fuzzy inference system associated

to the PSO algorithm approach became very strong, giving good

results and possessing good robustness and the results will improve

in quality with the use of historical data of more number of years.

VI. CONCLUSION

In this paper an optimal fuzzy logic is designed using PSO

algorithm. The fuzzy inference system with PSO algorithm

is better than the traditional fuzzy inference system

without PSO algorithms as we observed during our

simulation study and proposed system provides better

improvement and good robustness. The system takes into

account the effect of humidity as well as temperature on

load and a fuzzy logic based method is used to correct the

similar day load curves of the forecast day to obtain the load

forecast. Also, a new Euclidean norm with weight factors is

proposed, which is used for the selection of similar days.

Fuzzy logic is used to evaluate the correction factor of the

selected similar days to the forecast day using the information

of the previous forecast day and the previous similar days.

To verify the forecasting ability of the proposed

methodology, we did simulation to do load forecasting for the

month of July in a data set of 7 months and results for

four representative days of a week in the month of July are

given. The results obtained from the simulation show that

the proposed forecasting methodology, which proposes the use

of weather variables i.e. temperature as well as humidity, gives

load forecasting results with reasonable accuracy. The

proposed methodology would certainly give improved results

when it is implemented on historical data set of many years,

7

which we will present in our next research paper. Authors

hope that the proposed methodology will be helpful in using

more weather variables, which will certainly be better than

using only temperature as the weather variable that affects the

load, in short term load forecasting and will further propagate

research for short term load forecasting using new optimization

techniques like PSO.

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[14] M. Chow and H. Tram, "Application of fuzzy logic

technology for spatial load forecasting," IEEE Trans.

Power Syst., vol. 12, no. 3, pp. 1360-1366, 1997.

[15] J. Kennedy, R. Eberhart: Particle Swarm Optimization,

Proc. IEEE Int. Conf. on Neural Network, Vol. 4, 1995,

pp. 1942 - 1948.

[16] H. Yoshida, K. Kawata, Y. Fukuyama, S. Takayama, Y.

Nakanishi: A Particle Swarm Optimization for Reactive

Power and Voltage Control Considering Voltage

Security Assessment, IEEE Trans. on Power Systems,

Vol. 15, No. 4, Nov. 2000, pp. 1232 - 1239.

[17] Chang C.S., Fu W. "Area load-frequency control using

fuzzy gain scheduling of PI controllers", Electric Power

system Research, Vol. 42, 1997, pp. 145-52.

VIII. BIOGRAPHIES

Amit Jain graduated from KNIT,

India in Electrical Engineering. He

completed his masters and Ph.D.

from Indian Institute of Technology,

New Delhi, India.

He was working in Alstom on the

power SCADA systems. He was

working in Korea in 2002 as a Post-

doctoral researcher in the Brain Korea 21 project team of

Chungbuk National University. He was Post Doctoral

Fellow of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

(JSPS) at Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan. He also worked

as a Post Doctoral Research Associate at Tohoku University,

Sendai, Japan. Currently he is Head of Power Systems

Research Center at IIIT, Hyderabad, India. His fields of

research interest are power system real time monitoring and

control, artificial intelligence applications, power system

economics and electricity markets, renewable energy,

reliability analysis, GIS applications, parallel processing and

nanotechnology.

M Babita Jain is PhD student at the

International Institute of Information Technology, Hyderabad,

India since 2006. The areas of interest include IT Applications

to Power Systems, Load forecasting and Multi Agent Systems.

She has actively involved in establishing IEEE student branch

and Women in engineering affinity group activities.

E. Srinivas is a Master's Student in Power

System esearch Center,

International Institute of Information

Technology, Hyderabad, India. He

received his B. Tech degree from Sri

Indu College of Engineering and

Technology, Ibrahimpatan. His areas of interest include

Applications of

computational intelligence techniques to power systems

and operations planning of power systems.

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