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Rainfall analysis for the Provinces of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo,

Rainfall analysis for the Provinces of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo, The Kingdom of Cambodia
W. H. Vance, R. W. Bell and V. Seng School of Environmental Science, Murdoch University, WA. 6150, Australia August 2004 Introduction and purpose of analysis Crop diversification in the tropical savanna climate of Cambodia depends on a deeper understanding of rainfall distribution, and uncertainty. However, in Cambodia rainfall records have until recently been sparse, and not subject to a thorough analysis. Collection of daily rainfall data in Cambodia commenced as early as the 1920s. However, the number of recording locations was few. Since this time other locations have been included but data collection has been sporadic, hampering analysis of long term trends in rainfall. More recently the Mekong River Commission (MRC) has begun a program of collecting weather data in Cambodia, this should aid future research. Other documents are available which generally describe annual rainfall in Cambodia and show rainfall isohyets across the country (Nesbitt 1997). Rainfall in Cambodia follows a monsoonal pattern (Nesbitt 1997). Seasons are split into a dry season November to April; early wet season, April to June; and a main wet season July to October. According to Nesbitt (1997) rice growing areas receive 1250 to 1750 mm of annual rainfall. The purpose of this analysis was to determine the annual and monthly rainfall in Cambodia, specifically for the provinces of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo. The aim was to aid farmers when making choices as to which crops to grow apart from rice. Daily records of rainfall data in the three provinces of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo were analysed to: o calculate the monthly rainfall totals, o determine the variability in annual rainfall, o determine if the total rainfall in the month of March or April might give an indication of the potential rainfall for the remaining season, and determine if drought periods in June and July are consistent in each year, and if they may be predicted, o predict for Battambang the break of season for field crops. Methods Annual and monthly totals were calculated from the daily rainfall records sourced from the MRC. Annual and monthly averages were calculated for each site along with the maximum and minimum values. Years with missing data were not included in the calculations of averages. Where consecutive months had no recorded rain, these records were considered to indicate missing records and were not included in calculations of averages. This was so for the year 2000, months January to June in the province of Battambang, and the months January to July in the province of Kampong Cham. Indeed for many new stations set up by MRC, the measurements actually started in July/ August 2000.

Rainfall analysis for the Provinces of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo,

To compare the MRC records to the data presented in Nesbitt (1997), for each site, averages were recalculated for the period before 1970. To determine if the amount of rainfall in March could be used as a predictor of annual rainfall, sites with > 8 years of data were sorted on total March rainfall. The mean, maximum and minimum values of mean annual rainfall were calculated for the years which had > 50 mm rain in March and those which had < 50 mm rain in March. Results and Discussion Only seven out of 41 sites had recorded average rainfall within the range of annual rainfall values reported in Nesbitt (1997) (Table 1). It was assumed that the data in (Nesbitt 1997) was averaged from available data up to 1970. However, re-calculating the average annual rainfall for sites which had available data from before 1970, did not improve the match of averages with those reported by Nesbitt (1997). In general the rainfall map in Nesbitt (1997) appears to over-estimate average rainfall, in some cases by up to 500 mm/year. The range in annual rainfall for Battambang province was 695-1787 mm rain, Kampong Cham province 786-1756 mm rain and for Takeo province 1036-1686 mm. The variability in annual rainfall for the years 2001 and 2002 is shown in Table 2. The annual rainfall in the province of Battambang increases from North to South. For example Samlot has considerable higher rainfall than Battambang. In the province of Kampong Cham the annual rainfall increases from South to North (Kompong Seam being an exception). An increase in rainfall along a west-to-east transect east of the Mekong River in Kampong Cham province was predicted from the rainfall map (Nesbitt 1997) but was not strongly evident in the records analysed here. The province of Takeo has a weak increase in annual rainfall from east-to-west (Figure 1). March rainfall appears to be a strong predictor of the total amount of rain during the rest of the year (Table 3). When March rainfall is < 50 mm, annual rainfall is below average at all stations except Maung Russey. By contrast when the rainfall was > 50 mm in March, the annual rainfall was generally average or above average, by as much as 431 mm at Takeo. However, perhaps more importantly the minimum rainfall was mostly higher than average when March was wet. For each of the provinces in this analysis the site which had the most years of data was selected for further analysis. These were Battambang (54 years), Kampong Cham (51 years) and Takeo (ville) (46 years). Figures 2 to 4 show the average, minimum and maximum monthly rainfall for the three sites as well as annual rainfall for each year of available data. An important point may be that all the months in the wet season (April to October) have potential for less than 100 mm of total rain, shown by the monthly minimum. The range in possible monthly rainfall in this period varies by 245 to 571 mm across the three sites, indicating the great variability possible on the monthly totals in the different years. Annual rainfall records for the three sites were also variable. The values for the minimum, maximum and average are in Table 1. The actual range in annual rainfall for the three sites is 922 mm in Battambang, 1121 mm for Kampong Cham, and 2065 mm for Takeo (ville).

Rainfall analysis for the Provinces of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo,

According to Nesbitt (1997) the rainfall pattern in Cambodia tends to have two peaks, one around April-May the other around September-October. The monthly totals are extremely variable across the years of available data for the sites, but generally the pattern of a peak in rainfall in the early wet season and the main wet season is visible in the data of each year. The first peak being between April and July and the second peak being between August and October. The mean monthly rainfall of the three sites is presented in Figures 2 to 4. For Battambang city the peaks are in May and September; Kampong Cham, June and September; and Takeo (ville), May and October. Nesbitt (1997) reports that, on average, rain is expected on more than half the days from May to October. In the three sites analysed, 64, 59 and 17% of the years analysed had rain on more than half the days in the period May to October, for Battambang, Kampong Cham, and Takeo (ville), respectively (Figures 5 to 7). When rainfall in March was greater than 50 mm, only 40% and 22% of the following months rainfall (April) respectively for Kampong Cham and Battambang were greater than 100 mm (Table 4). That is, there is still a high risk of insufficient rain to prepare land and sow a crop in April, even when March rainfall is significant. However, presumably the extra soil water storage following March rain would assist in crop establishment and minimise the risk of crop loss due to drought periods in April. In Battambang there is little difference between the probability of >100 mm rainfall for the months after March rainfall of > 50 mm and < 50 mm. However, in Kampong Cham when there was > 50 mm of March rainfall there was more chance of receiving > 100 mm rainfall in the following months than if March rainfall was less than 50 mm (Table 4). The same was true for April rainfall. The May to July rainfall was more reliable for the years where March was wet, with a 93% chance of greater than 100 mm for both locations and in both months. By contrast with a wet April (> 50 mm rainfall), there is a 90% chance of getting rainfall greater than 100 mm in May and a 100% chance of getting greater than 100 mm rain in June at Kampong Cham (Table 4). Percentiles of the annual rainfall were calculated for the three sites. At the Takeo (ville) town there is a 86% chance of receiving annual rainfall greater than 1000 mm (Figure 8). At the Kampong Cham town there is greater than 95% probability of 1000 mm or more of annual rainfall. The 75, 50 and 25 percentile rainfall values are 1225, 1414 and 1583 mm/year. By contrast the nearest rainfall isohyet in Nesbitt (1997) for Kampong Cham is 1750 mm (Figure 8). This suggests a significant inaccuracy in the rainfall predicted in the map published in Nesbitt (1997). At the town of Battambang there is a greater than 90% probability of receiving an annual rainfall greater than 1000 mm. There is a 50% chance of an annual rainfall greater than 1250 mm making Battambang one of the few centres where average rainfall from records matched reasonably well with the rainfall presented in Nesbitt (1997) (Figure 8). Monthly percentile graphs were also calculated for the 3 sites (Figures 9 to 11). Table 5 summarises these results. In March, the probability of receiving no rainfall is 15, 40 and 39% for Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo (ville), respectively. These sites also have a 36, 28 and 19% chance of having rainfall greater than 50 mm in March. For all sites there is a greater than 80% chance of receiving greater than

Rainfall analysis for the Provinces of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo,

100 mm of rain in the months July to October, and a greater than 19% chance of receiving greater than 200 mm of rain. Implications for cropping Through analysis of the rainfall in Cambodia improved decisions can be made regarding choices of crops for particular provinces, and for a particular season within a region. Of particular importance is the amount of rainfall needed to trigger a decision to plant a crop. Stewart suggests that 20 mm rain in 3 consecutive days, and no dry spells > 7 days in the next 30 days is an appropriate indicator of sowing time in semi-arid tropical environments where cropping depends on the arrival of a monsoonal rainfall pattern. Barron et al. (2003) reports that 40 mm in an 8-day period is used in Kenya to indicate the start of the season for sowing, and in Tanzania the trigger for sowing is 30 mm rainfall in 8 consecutive days. These assume a potential evaporation rate of 3-5.5 mm/day. A set of rules for the commencement of sowing in Cambodia would be particularly useful. Clearly, March rainfall could be used as an indicator of rainfall scenarios likely to follow in the main wet season. March rainfall > 50 mm would increase confidence in early April sowing of field crops, knowing that follow-up rainfall is more likely, and that stored sub-soil water levels before sowing will improve early crop growth. By contrast low March rainfall might cause a farmer to switch their cropping plans to short duration crops like mungbean or early maturing cultivars of maize and soybean, sown later after reliable rainfalls commence. There are clearly important regional differences in the reliability of early rainfall, between Kampong Cham for example and Takeo. In the former station, there was an appreciably higher probability of > 100 mm rainfall in from March to June than in Takeo, with Battambang being intermediate. On the other hand, rainfall persisted longer into November in Takeo than Kampong Cham and Battambang. This has implications for the time of sowing of main wet season field crops. Excessive rainfall is undesirable leading up to harvest as it causes spoilage of grain. Hence later planting in Takeo may be advisable. A mini-drought is commonly experienced in June- July as the south east monsoon is replaced by the north west monsoon as the main rainfall bearing system. Inspection of the annual rainfall records for most locations shows a significant decline in June or July rainfall. However, the timing of the mini-drought is evidently changeable from year-to-year, as the mini-drought is not expressed in the average annual monthly rainfall at Battambang. At Takeo, both June and August have lower rainfall than the months earlier or later. The principles of Response Farming might be incorporated with the current knowledge of the rainfall to improve reliability of non-rice crops for farmers. Response Farming is an approach that identifies and quantifies seasonal rainfall variability and the risk related to these, and incorporates this information into the decisions on crop choice, sowing rules and crop management (Stewart 1991).

Rainfall analysis for the Provinces of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo,

Table 1. Average, maximum and minimum rainfall in the provinces of Kampong Cham, Battambang and Takeo No Code Station Years Years Province Annual rainfall calculated from MRC data Minimum Maximum Average Annual rainfall
a

Annual rainfall from MRC data calculated from before 1970 all data years without missing data 1037

FAO CLIMWAT b Rainfall data Average

collected

analysed

Nesbitt 1997

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 15 16

17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

120213 120303 120311 130208 130210 130211 130212 130215 130301 130304 130305 130313 130319 130406 120202 120305 120206 120205 110427 110428 110515 110516 110517 110605 120414 120421

Rattanak Mondol Maung Russey Cheang Meanchey Bovel Komrieng Komping Pouy Roung Chrey Samlot Banan O Taky Battambang Tuol Samraung Thmar Kol Tbeng (Sdau) Pailin Raing Kesey Treng Chamlong Kouy Batheay Tbong Khmum Pongnear Krek Srey Santhor Sre Seam Mimot Doun Pean Prey Chhor

3 23 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 60 9 8 1 18 7 3 3 13 11 3 4 3 13 3 3

2 19 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 53 2 8 1 14 7 2 2 9 10 2 3 2 7 2 2

Pailin Battambang Battambang Battambang Battambang Battambang Battambang Battambang Battambang Battambang Battambang Battambang Battambang Battambang Pailin Battambang Battambang Battambang K.Cham K.Cham K.Cham K.Cham K.Cham K.Cham K.Cham K.Cham

1016 334 1148 725 638 823 677 1512 855 498 964 922 849 763 814 1006 916 1006 1013 1693 1001 1337 1208 837 1139

1023 1923 1361 758 789 920 1104 2061 943 893 1886 1002 2030 1840 1861 1017 1176 1762 1883 1819 1535 1585 2016 1239 1382

1020 1150 1254 742 713 871 890 1787 899 695 1339 962 1172 914 1203 1219 1011 1044 1255 1352 1756 1217 1461 1810 1038 1261

1500-1750 1500-1750 1750-2000 1250-1500 1250-1500 1250-1500 1250-1500 1750-2000 1500-1750 1250-1500 1250-1500 1250-1500 1250-1500 1500-1750 1500-1750 1500-1750 1750 1750-2000 1500 1750-2500 1750-2500 1750-2500 2500 1750 1750-2500

882

1340 770

1381

1365 (n=28)

1113 1219

1189

1050

1816

Rainfall analysis for the Provinces of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo,

25 26 27 28 29 30 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41
a

120502 120504 120509 120519 120610 Cholear 120515 110504 100403 100408 100419 100420 100421 110403 110441 110446 110448

Stung Trang Kampong Cham Chamcar Leur Krouch Chmar Tomproong Cholear Kompong Seam Chup Kirivong Takeo (Ville) Angkor Borey Donkeo Koh Andet Tonle Baty Samroong Prey Lvear Chambak

6 51 14 3 3 3 4 11 2 46 2 2 2 2 5 2 2

2 48 11 2 2 2 2 11 1 40 2 2 2 1 3 2 2

K.Cham K.Cham K.Cham K.Cham K.Cham K.Cham K.Cham K.Cham Takeo Takeo Takeo Takeo Takeo Takeo Takeo Takeo Takeo

1648 1043 1151 1408 691 683 762 1237 509 1101 1291 1017 956 1077 1015

1681 2164 2007 1562 880 897 1084 2735 2574 1502 1625 1153 1111 1284 1235

1665 1438 1590 1485 786 790 923 1740 1196 1375 1301 1458 1085 1214 1036 1180 1125

2500 1750-2500 1750 1500 2500 1500 1250-1500 1250 1250 1250 1250 1250 1250 1250 1250

1423 1600

1698 (n=10)

1740 1532

Annual rainfall estimated from the rainfall isohyets on the Rainfall Map of Cambodia in the document 'Rice Production in Cambodia'. Nesbitt 1997).

CLIMWAT for CROPWAT - A climatic database for irrigation planning and management. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 49. 1993

Rainfall analysis for the Provinces of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo,

Fig. 1. Average annual rainfall across Cambodia (data sourced from the Mekong River Commission (MRC))

Rainfall analysis for the Provinces of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo,

Table 2. Annual rainfall for the years 2001 and 2002 No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 15 16 Code 120213 120303 120311 130208 130210 130211 130212 130215 130301 130304 130305 130313 130319 130406 120202 120305 120206 120205 110427 110428 110515 110516 110517 110605 120414 120421 120502 120504 120509 120519 120610 Cholear 120515 110504 100403 100408 100419 100420 100421 110403 110441 110446 110448 Station Rattanak Mondol Maung Russey Cheang Meanchey Bovel Komrieng Komping Pouy Roung Chrey Samlot Banan O Taky Battambang Tuol Samraung Thmar Kol Tbeng (Sdau) Pailin Raing Kesey Treng Chamlong Kouy Batheay Tbong Khmum Pongnear Krek Srey Santhor Sre Seam Mimot Doun Pean Prey Chhor Stung Trang Kampong Cham Chamcar Leur Krouch Chmar Tomproong Cholear Kompong Seam Chup Kirivong Takeo (Ville) Angkor Borey Donkeo Koh Andet Tonle Baty Samroong Prey Lvear Chambak Annual rainfall 2001 2002 1016 1023 910 1197 1148 1361 758 725 789 638 919 823 677 1104 2061 1512 943 855 893 498 1096 1210 922 1002 892 848 914 1006 763 1006 1017 1173 916 1093 1006 1468 1259 1819 1693 1279 1001 1585 1337 1208 2013 837 1239 1382 1139 1648 1681 1324 1133 1518 1423 1562 1408 880 691 896 683 1084 762 1196 1502 1101 1625 1291 1017 1153 1214 1111 1041 1077 1284 1235 1015

17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

Rainfall analysis for the Provinces of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo,

Table 3. The annual rainfall statistics for sites when the data is split between those years which have > 50 mm of rain in March and those years which have < 50 mm of rain in March
130305 Battambang Rain in March > 50 mm < 50 mm All data (n=20) (n=33) (n=53) 964 1016 964 1729 1886 1886 1364 1325 1339 Pailin Rain in March > 50 mm < 50 mm All data (n=10) (n=4) (n=14) 995 763 763 1841 1323 1841 1261 1058 1203 120303 Maung Russey Rain in March > 50 mm < 50 mm All data (n=8) (n=12) (n=20) 764 334 334 1319 1923 1923 1084 1194 1150 130319 Thmar Kol Rain in March > 50 mm < 50 mm All data (n=5) (n=3) (n=8) 849 969 849 2030 1125 2030 1256 1033 1172 120504 Kampong Cham Rain in March >50 march <50 march all data (n=14) (n=35) (n=49) Minimum 1123 1043 1043 Maximum 1981 2164 2164 Mean 1574 1383 1439 120509 Chmakar Loeu Rain in March > 50 mm < 50 mm All data (n=2) (n=9) (n=11) 1518 1151 1151 2007 1798 2007 1763 1551 1590 110504 Chup Rain in March > 50 mm < 50 mm All data (n=3) (n=8) (n=11) 1358 1237 1237 2735 2205 2735 2249 1549 1740 100408 Takeo (ville) Rain in March >50 march <50 march all data (n=9) (n=31) (n=40) 1321 509 509 2574 1890 2574 1818 1247 1375

Minimum Maximum Mean

Minimum Maximum Mean

Minimum Maximum Mean

Minimum Maximum Mean

Minimum Maximum Mean

Minimum Maximum Mean

Maximum Minimum Mean

Rainfall analysis for the Provinces of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo,

300 250 200 rain (mm) 150 100 50 0

a) average monthly rainfall

Ja nu ar y

Ap ril

M ay

Ju ly

ar y

us t Se pt em be r

ch

Ju ne

ov em be r

M ar

Fe br u

Au g

ct ob e

month

600 500 400


rain (mm)

b) minimum and maximum monthly rainfall

300 200 100 0

Ja nu ar y

ay

br ua ry

Ju ly

Se pt e

Fe

month

ov em be r N

2000 1800 1600 1400 rain (mm) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0

c) annual rainfall

Fig. 2. Rainfall statistics for the site of Battambang, a) average monthly rainfall, b) minimum and maximum monthly rainfall and c) annual rainfall.

1920 1922 1923 1924 1925 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1958 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1972 1973 1974 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1993 1994 1995 2001 2002

year

10

ec em be r

m be r

ar ch

Ap ril

Au gu st

ct ob er

Ju ne

D
maximum minimum

ec em

be r

Rainfall analysis for the Provinces of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo,

250

a) average monthly rainfall

200

rain (mm)

150

100

50

0
ay Ja nu ar y Ju ly y ch il Au gu st Ju ne be r ct ob er Fe br ua r Ap r ar M Se pt em be r ec em D ov em be r

month

600 500 400 rain (mm) 300 200 100 0

b) minimum and maximum rainfall

maximum minimum

Ap ril

Fe br ua ry

Ju ly

ay

be r

be r

Ja nu ar y

ar ch

Ju ne

Au gu st

Se pt em

ct ob e

month

2500

c) annual rainfall

2000

rain (mm)

1500

1000

500

0
1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

year

Fig. 3. Rainfall statistics for the site of Kampong Cham, a) average monthly rainfall, b) minimum and maximum monthly rainfall and c) annual rainfall.

11

D ec em

ov em

be r

Rainfall analysis for the Provinces of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo,

300 250 200 rain (mm) 150 100 50 0

a) average monthly rainfall

Ap ril

Ju ne

Ju ly

ay

gu st

er

ar ch

be r

be r

Ja nu ar

ua r

O ct ob

ov em

month

Se p

700 600 500 rain (mm) 400 300 200 100 0

b) minimum and maximum monthly rainfall maximum minimum

ar y

Ju ly

ay

us t

ril

Ju ne

be r

er

be r

ch

Ja nu ar

Ap

Au g

br u

ct ob

M ar

ov em

Fe

month

Se p

2750 2500 2250 2000 1750

c) annual rainfall

rain (mm)

1500 1250 1000 750 500 250 0


1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992

year

Fig. 4. Rainfall statistics for the site of Takeo (ville), a) average monthly rainfall, b) minimum and maximum monthly rainfall and c) annual rainfall.

12

ec em

te m

be r

D ec em

Fe br

te m

Au

be r

Rainfall analysis for the Provinces of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo,

170.0
1954 1955 1956 1958 1960 1961

160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0 Number of Days 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0
1920 1922 1927 1929 1930 1931 1923 1924 1925 1926

DOY 1-365
1966 1967

DOY 121-304
2000 2001 1992 1993 1994 1995

1952 1953

1962 1963 1964 1965

40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0

Fig. 5. Number of rainfall days in Battambang in each year (DOY 1-365) and the period May to October (DOY 121-304). 64.4% of years have rainfall more than half the days from May to October, 38 years out of the total 59 years available for analysis. The number of days from May to October is 183 days, half this is 91 days.

170 160 150 140


1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971

130
1933 1936

120
1929 1930

1943 1947

1996

1939

Number of days

1932

1961

1938

1963

1972

100
1928

1942

1962

110

90 80
1922 1925

60 50 40 30 20 10 0
1920

1927

1941

70

1931

19 36

19 39

19 42

19 70

19 20

19 72

19 81

19 25

19 28

19 30

19 32

1980

1981 1982

19 93

19 47

19 62

19 96

19 99

19 64

19 66

19 68

19 83

19 85

19 87

19 89

19 91

Year

Fig. 6. Number of rainfall days in Kampong Cham in each year (DOY 1-365) and the period May to October (DOY 121-304). 59% of years have rainfall more than half the days from May to October, 29 years out of the total 49 years available for analysis. The number of days from May to October is 183 days, half this is 91 days.

13

20 02

1997 1999 2001 2002

1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

19 20 19 23 19 25 19 27 19 30 19 32 19 34 19 36 19 38 19 40 19 52 19 54 19 56 19 60 19 62 19 64 19 66 19 68 19 70 19 72 19 74 19 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 20 00 20 02

Years

1972 1973

50.0

1932 1933 1934 1935

1936 1937 1938 1939

1968 1969

DOY 1-365

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991

1940 1951

1970 1971

1974 1981 1982 1983

DOY121-304

2002

Rainfall analysis for the Provinces of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo,

170.0 160.0 1913 140.0 130.0 120.0 Number of days 110.0 100.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0
19 14 19 25 19 29 19 66 19 18 19 62 19 12 19 16 19 20 19 22 19 59 19 27 19 53 19 64

DOY 1-365

DOY 121-304

1914 1915 1916 1917

1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1953 1958 1959 1960

1963

1964 1965 1966 1968

1962

150.0

1912

1984

1986

1988 1987

1989
19 88 19 90

90.0

1918

1985

19 84

19 82

1982 1983

19 86

Year

Fig. 7. Number of rainfall days in Takeo (ville) in each year (DOY 1-365) and the period May to October (DOY 121-304). 17.5% of years have rainfall more than half the days from May to October, 7 years out of the total 40 years available for analysis. The number of days from May to October is 183 days, half this is 91 days.

Table 4. The monthly rainfall characteristics for all years when March and April rainfall is split into greater than 50 mm rainfall and less than 50 mm rainfall. April Kampong Cham Total years March rain Years with < 50 mm Years with > 50 mm April rain Years with < 50 mm Years with > 50 mm Battambang Total years March rain Years with < 50 mm Years with > 50 mm April rain Years with < 50 mm Years with > 50 mm 32 36 22 69 73 68 65 66 77 80 77 78 62 86 90 86 84 85 30 29 40 77 73 93 57 90 93 94 100 84 100 85 82 93 78 86 Rainfall greater than 100 mm May June July %

14

19 92

1990 1991 1992 1993

Rainfall analysis for the Provinces of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo,

100 80 60 40 20 a) Battambang 0 80 60 40 20 b) Kampong Cham 0 80 60 40 20 c) Takeo (ville) 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Percentile

Percentile

Percentile

Rainfall (mm)

Fig. 8. The probability of receiving annual rainfall at the sites of a) Battambang , b) Kampong Cham, and c) Takeo (ville). Dotted lines indicate the main rainfall isohyets for the each region from Nesbitt (1997).

15

Rainfall analysis for the Provinces of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo,

Table 5. The probability of receiving monthly rainfall greater than 0, 50, 100 and 200 mm for the sites of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo (ville). Battambang 0 January February March April May June July August September October November December Kampong Cham 0 January February March April May June July August September October November December Takeo (ville) 0 January February March April May June July August September October November December 33 42 67 94 97 67 Monthly rainfall (mm) 50 100 200 Probability of exceedance 3 19 61 22 3 81 64 33 89 64 6 94 89 28 89 75 19 97 83 53 100 97 64 75 58 11 19 11 56 48 60 94 96 96 72 Monthly rainfall (mm) 50 100 200 Probability of exceedance 4 2 28 16 2 60 30 8 94 78 24 92 50 94 82 36 86 52 92 50 82 56 60 34 6 10 40 45 65 85 85 87 85 95 88 67 Monthly rainfall (mm) 50 100 200 Probability of exceedance 13 36 5 63 27 4 83 64 18 83 68 11 91 80 24 83 29 86 57 82 49 55 36 11 6 -

16

Rainfall analysis for the Provinces of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo,

100 80

100 80

Percentile

Percentile

60 40 20 0 0 100 80 10 20 30

January

60 40 20 0

July

40

50

60 100 80

50

100

150

200

250

300

Percentile

60 40 20 0 0 100 80 20 40 60 80 100 120

Percentile

60 40 20 0 0 100 80 100 200 300 400 500

February

August

Percentile

60 40 20 0 100 80 0 50 100 150 200 250

Percentile

60 40 20 0 100 80 0 100 200 300

March

September

400

500

600

Percentile

60 40 20 0 0 100 80 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Percentile

60 40 20 0 0 100 80 100 200 300 400 500 600

April

October

Percentile

60 40 20 0 0 100 80 100 200 300 400

Percentile

60 40 20 0 0 100 80 100 200

May

November

300

400

Percentile

60 40 20 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Percentile

60 40 20 0 0 20 40 60 80

June

December

100

120

140

Rain (mm)

Rain (mm)

Fig. 9. Monthly percentile graphs for site Battambang

17

Rainfall analysis for the Provinces of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo,

100 80

100 80

Percentile

Percentile

60 40 20 0 0 100 80 10 20 30 40

January

60 40 20 0

July

50

60

70 100 80

100

200

300

400

Percentile

60 40 20 0 0 100 80 50 100 150

Percentile

60 40 20

August

February
200 250 300

0 0 100 80 100 200 300 400 500

Percentile

60 40 20 0 0 100 80 50 100 150 200 250

Percentile

60 40 20 0 0 100 80 100 200

March

September

300

400

500

Percentile

60 40 20 0 0 100 80 100 200 300 400

Percentile

60 40 20 0 0 100 80 100 200 300 400 500 600

April

October

Percentile

60 40 20 0 0 100 80 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Percentile

60 40 20 0 0 100 80 50 100 150

May

November

200

250

300

Percentile

60 40 20 0 0 100 200 300 400 500

Percentile

60 40 20 0 0 20 40 60 80

June

December

100

120

140

160

Rain (mm)

Rain (mm)

Fig. 10. Monthly percentile graphs for site Kampong Cham

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Rainfall analysis for the Provinces of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo,

100 80

100 80

Percentile

Percentile

60 40 20 0 0 100 80 20 40 60

January

60 40 20 0

July

80

100

120 10000 8000

100

200

300

400

500

Percentile

60 40 20 0 0 100 80 5 10 15 20 25 30

Percentile

6000 4000 2000 0 0 100 80 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

February

August

Percentile

60 40 20 0 100 80 0 20 40 60 80 100

Percentile

60 40 20 0 100 80 0 100 200

March

September

300

400

Percentile

60 40 20 0 0 100 80 50 100 150 200 250 300

Percentile

60 40 20 0 0 100 80 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

April

October

Percentile

60 40 20 0 0 100 80 100 200 300 400 500

Percentile

60 40 20 0 0 100 80 50 100 150

May

November

200

250

300

Percentile

60 40 20 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Percentile

60 40 20 0 0 50 100 150

June

December

200

250

300

Rain (mm)

Rain (mm)

Fig. 11. Monthly percentile graphs for site Takeo (ville)

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Rainfall analysis for the Provinces of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo,

Case study: Break of the Season and Dry Spell Analysis for the Province of Battambang Introduction To investigate potential rules that indicate the commencement of the growing season (also referred to as the break of the season) in Cambodia the 56 years of rainfall data from Battambang were used to test scenarios which indicate the break of the season, and to investigate the likelihood and duration of dry spells. This analysis was completed using the software INSTAT (Statistical Service Centre, University of Reading, UK)(Stern and Knock 1998). Break of season The break of the season (BOS) can be determined from the historical rainfall data. Rules need to be formulated which dictate the amount of rainfall necessary over a period of days that allow successful sowing and germination of a crop. In addition the duration and occurrence of a dry spell after the rainfall criteria is met can also be added. These rules may vary between locations and for different crop species. Figures 12 and 13 show data for 56 years for 4 different criteria for the break of the season, i) 20 mm of rainfall in a 3 day period, ii) 30 mm of rainfall in an 8 day period, iii) 50 mm of rainfall in a 10 day period, and iv) 100 mm of rainfall in a 10 day period, when the criteria is started in each of the months March, April, May and June. The BOS for each year and month analysed can be seen in the annual BOS graphs (Figure 12). This shows the range in the BOS which has occurred in Battambang, dependent on the criteria set. The mean day of year when the BOS occurred increased by 1 day for March and April and decreased by up to 4 days for May and June when the rainfall criteria was changed from 20 mm in 3 days to 30 mm in 8 days. When the rainfall criteria was increased from 50 to 100 mm of rainfall in a 10 day period, the mean day when the BOS occurred increased from 28 to 46 days across the 4 months (Table 6). Overall the mean day of year when the BOS occurs is similar for all criteria except 100 mm rainfall in 10 days. It is only the maximum day of year when the BOS occurs which is different between the 3 day and 8 day criteria and the 50 mm rainfall in 10 day criteria. When the criteria of 100 mm of rainfall falling in 10 days are used for both the months of March and April the mean BOS is at day 150 (May 31st) (Table 6). Figure 12c shows that in some years the break of the season criteria is not met until May or even June of that year, e.g. Figure 12c years 1955 to1957, and that when the criteria is 100 mm of rainfall in 10 days the criteria is rarely met in March (before day 90)(Figure 12d). With the lower rainfall amount over less days the rainfall criteria is often met in March and April. Hence the lower rainfall criteria appear to match well with farmers decisions on when to plant sesame since generally they aim to plant late in March to early April after the first significant rainfall The rainfall criteria with fewer days and less rainfall provide a narrower range of days over which the BOS will most probably occur for each month (Figure 13). For example, in May there is an 80% chance that rainfall criteria of 20, 30 and 50 mm will be met between May 1st and up to May 22nd. In comparison there is an 80% chance that rainfall criteria of 100 mm will be met between May 1st and July 20th. The day of year when rainfall criteria of 30 mm in 8 days is met is slightly earlier than 20 mm in 20

Rainfall analysis for the Provinces of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo,

3 days during May and June and slightly later in April, and is met on identical days in March.
Table 6. Statistics for the 4 different rainfall criteria indicating the day of the year when the break of season (BOS) occurs, for the 4 different months 20 mm rainfall in 3 days commencing 50 mm rainfall in 10 days commencing March April May June March April May June Day of the Year 89 110 133 163 104 115 135 164 61 92 122 153 61 92 122 153 140 142 219 219 155 155 249 249 30 mm rainfall in 8 days commencing 100 mm rainfall in 10 days commencing March April May June March April May June Day of the Year 90 111 130 159 150 150 164 199 61 92 122 153 84 92 122 153 140 141 219 219 257 257 257 266

Mean Minimum Maximum

Mean Minimum Maximum

300 250 200 150 Start of season - Day of Year 100 50 0 250 200 150 100 50

a) Start of season 20 mm in 3 days

c) Start of season 50 mm in 10 days

b) Start of season 30 mm in 8 days

d) Start of season 100 mm in 10 days

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

Year Fig. 12. The day of the year when the break of the season (BOS) occurred for each of the 56 years of rainfall data analysed for the town of Battambang. The graphs represent 4 different rainfall criteria: a) 20 mm of rainfall in a 3 day period, b) 30 mm of rainfall in a 8 day period, c) 50 mm of rainfall in a 10 day period and d) 100 mm of rainfall in a 10 day period when the criteria is started in each of the months March, April, May and June. Horizontal lines indicate the mean BOS of each month for 56 years.

21

2000

2000

March April May June

Rainfall analysis for the Provinces of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo,

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 March 0 50 75

Percentile

a) Start of season 20 mm in 3 days and 30 mm in 8 days

April May
100 125

June
150 175 200 225 250

Break of Season - Day of Year


100 90 b) Start of season 80 50 mm in 10 days 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 90 c) Start of season 80 100 mm in 10 days 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 50 75 100 125

March April May June

Percentile

150

175

200

225

250

275

Break of Season - Day of Year

Fig. 13. The probability of the break of the season occurring on each day of the year for the 4 different rainfall criteria: a) 20 mm of rainfall in a 3 day period and 30 mm of rainfall in an 8 day period, b) 50 mm of rainfall in a 10 day period, and c) 100 mm of rainfall in a 10 day period when the criteria is started in each of the months March, April, May and June. In graph a) the 2 rainfall criteria overlap in March. In graph c) the data for the months of March and April overlap. In graph a) dotted lines indicate 30 mm of rainfall over8 days, solid lines indicate 20 mm of rainfall over 3 days.

A further step in the analysis of the day of year when the BOS occurs includes adding criteria on the time and duration of dry spells occurring after the rainfall criteria has already been met. In this analysis criteria were set as the first instant after March 1st when 50 mm of rainfall occurred in a 10 day period, provided that no dry spell should exceed 10 days in the 30 days after the rainfall criteria was met. Rainfall criteria alone indicated that the BOS was day 100 (April 10th) for 1920, but in the following 30 days there was a dry spell exceeding 10 days. When a dry spell criterion was added to the earlier definition of BOS, the BOS was day 158 (June 7th). For 37 out of the 56 years there was no change in sowing date with the addition of the dry

22

Rainfall analysis for the Provinces of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo,

spell criteria. The average gap in the BOS from rainfall criteria only, to the addition of dry spell criteria was 18 days; the maximum gap was 148 days. The statistics for this criterion and an additional criteria of 30 mm of rainfall in 10 days are shown in Table 7. Analysis of the percentiles of both criterion (Figure 14) show that there was a 25% chance (1 out of 4 years) of a BOS of less than day 83 (March 23rd) and day 108 (April 17th) respectively for the rainfall only and rainfall plus dry spell criteria respectively, and a 50% chance of BOS of less than 107 (April 16th) and 122 (May 1st) days respectively. In 9% of years there was a potential for sowing a crop in March, as the rainfall and dry criteria was met, this only increases to 10% if the rainfall criteria was set to 30 mm in 8 days. However, if rainfall criteria were set to 20 mm of rainfall in 3 days with the dry spell criteria then 16% of years had a potential for sowing a crop in March.
Table 7. The minimum, maximum and mean day of the year calculated as the break of the season for rainfall alone and rainfall plus dry spell criteria Min. Rainfall Criteria 50 mm rainfall in 10 days Rainfall 50 mm rainfall in 10 days and Dry spell Criteria Rainfall Criteria 30 mm rainfall in 10 days Rainfall 30 mm rainfall in 10 days and Dry spell Criteria 61 73 61 73 Max. 155 249 140 219 Mean 105 127 90 119

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 50

Percentile

Rainfall and dry spell criteria Rainfall criteria only

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

Break of Season - Day of Year

Fig. 14. The probability of the break of the season occurring on each day of the year for the 2 different rainfall criteria: a) first instance after March 1st when 50 mm of rainfall occurred in a 10 day period and, b) first instance after March 1st when 50 mm of rainfall occurred in a 10 day period with the additional dry spell criteria that no dry spell should exceed 10 days in the 30 days after the rainfall criteria was met.

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Rainfall analysis for the Provinces of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo,

Risk of dry spells The risk of dry spells occurring for the period March 1st to May 31st (day 61 to 151) was analysed for 56 years of Battambang data. The dry spells were calculated for 30 day periods in 3 day increments over the analysis period. Figure 15 presents the risk of dry spells of 7, 10 and 21 days occurring. There is 0 probability of a 30 day dry spell throughout this period. The incidence of all durations of dry spells decreases from March to May. The probability of having a dry spell increases with the shorter periods (i.e. more chance of having a 7 day dry spell than a 10 or 21 day dry spell). Throughout March there is a greater than 80% chance of having a 7 day dry spell, greater than 53% chance of having a 10 day dry spell and a greater than 10% chance of having a 21 day dry spell.

1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7


7 Days 10 Days 21 Days 30 Days Rainfall and dry BOS Rainfall BOS

Probability

0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160

Day of Year

Fig. 15. The chance of dry spells of 7, 10, 21 and 30 days occurring in the period March 1st to May 31st The mean day of the break of the season for 56 years of Battambang rainfall data are also graphed. These are represented as vertical lines i) Rainfall BOS is the first instance of 50 mm of rainfall in 10 days after March 1st and, ii) Rainfall and dry BOS is first instance of 50 mm of rainfall in 10 days after March 1st, and no dry spell exceeding 10 days in the following 30 days after the rainfall criteria was met.

When the mean day of the year for the two BOS criteria previously determined are placed on the graph, the chance of having a dry spell of up to 21 days after the BOS is very low (less than 5%). However, the chances of a 7 day dry spell after the BOS are greater than 30%, and the chances of a 10 day dry spell after the BOS are between 10 and 20%. The 56 years of rainfall data were analysed for the months of March to December to determine the probability of 4 durations of dry spells lasting 7, 10, 21 and 30 days. In March and December (Table 8) there is a 100% probability of having a dry spell duration of 7 days and about 50% of years have a dry spell of 30 days duration.

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Rainfall analysis for the Provinces of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo,

During April there is a 25% chance of dry spells of 30 days (1 year out of 4), the probability of a dry spell of 30 days in May to November is less than 13%. Evidence which may confirm the incidence of mini droughts in the months of June and July may be the 16 and 10% chance of 21 days of no rainfall, and 29 and 18% chance of having a 10 day dry spell respectively for June and July. The sowing of early wet season crops (April to June growing period) would be during the time when the dry spells directly after sowing have a 26% chance of being up to 30 days duration. Further into the growing season in June there is 29% chance of 10 day dry spells. During the main wet season (July to mid November) the probability of having dry spells of 10 days and greater duration is very low.
Table 8. The probability of having a dry spell duration of 7, 10, 21 and 30 days in the months March to December in Battambang 7 days 1.00 0.92 0.60 0.44 0.29 0.15 0.15 0.41 0.87 1.00 10 days 0.95 0.77 0.32 0.29 0.18 0.08 0.08 0.20 0.69 0.97 21 days 0.69 0.37 0.15 0.16 0.10 0.06 0.07 0.05 0.23 0.84 30 days 0.52 0.26 0.13 0.13 0.08 0.06 0.07 0.05 0.13 0.56

March April May June July August September October November December

Implications for sowing an early wet season crop The previous analysis to determine the break of the season and the incidence of dry spells can be used to determine the risks involved in growing an early wet season crop in Battambang, where the early wet season is defined as being from April 1st to June 31st. The criteria for the break of the season is the same as used above, and the results are shown in Figure 14 (BOS criteria, first 50 mm of rainfall in 10 days starting from March, with no dry spell exceeding 10 days in the 30 days following the rainfall). There is a less than 10% chance of BOS in March, the most likely period (80% chance) for the break of the season is between day 93 (April 3rd) and day 140 (May 20th). The incidence of dry spells in the early wet season indicates that the longest dry spell during this period for most years is more than 7 days (96%). 64% of the years have the longest dry spell in the early wet season of 21 days or less and that 12% of years have the longest dry spell of greater than 30 days. A further step in the analysis of the rainfall in the early wet season would be to determine the end of the season, and the total rainfall for the season. The total rainfall for the growing season can be calculated for the 56 years of rainfall data. The start of the season is defined as May 11th, the mean break of the season for the 56 years, and the end of the season is assumed to be crop maturity. Assuming a crop that takes 90 days to mature, the end of the growing season calculated from May 11th would be August 9th. The mean of the total rainfall over the growing season for the 56 years of data is 447 mm, with a 20% chance of rainfall less than 370 mm and an 80% chance of rainfall less than 536 mm. This calculation could be completed for different crop maturity times, to determine if the rainfall requirements of various crops will be met. Additional criteria of evaporation may also be added to calculate the water balance. 25

Rainfall analysis for the Provinces of Battambang, Kampong Cham and Takeo,

For the even earlier sowing of crops such as sesame in March, it has been seen from this analysis that as few as 10% of the 56 years analysed succeeded in meeting the rainfall and dry spell criteria for the BOS. In addition the dry spell analysis indicates that there is a great chance of having dry spells of up to 21 days (70%). However, farmers do currently grow sesame during this period to prevent the incidence of pests which may occur if later sowing of the crop occurs. Through the completion of farmer surveys and the advice of experts it is hoped to determine the current sowing practices of farmers, so for each crop, refinement of criteria for the break of season and risk of dry spells can occur. Conclusion Average annual rainfall for several stations appears to fall significantly below the amounts predicted from previous rainfall isohyet maps for Cambodia. This has significant implications for the choice of field crops, optimum time of sowing and for crop varieties with appropriate phenology for the rainfall pattern. There is some indication that heavy (> 50 mm) rainfall in March might be a useful predictor of more reliable early wet season rainfall for field crops. Further analysis of rainfall will be useful for Cambodia. This would aid the choice on which crop should be grown given the predicted potential rainfall. Crops vary in plant water requirements (drought tolerance) and growing season (time of sowing and maturity duration). Better choices on which crop should be grown can be made with rainfall probability information. Information on rainfall probability is also important to make the choice to not grow a crop at all, due to potential seasonal conditions which would produce crop failure.
Acknowledgements Rainfall data used in this analysis was provided by the Mekong River Commission, Cambodia. References Barron J, Rockstrm J, Gichuki F, Hatibu N (2003) Dry spell analysis and maixe yields for two semiarid locations in eat Africa. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 117, 23-37. Nesbitt, HJ (1997) Topography, climate and rice production. In Rice production in Cambodia. Ed. H.J. Nesbitt. International Rice Research Institute: Manila, Philippines. 112 p. Stern RD, Knock J (1998) INSTAT Climatic Guide. Statistical Service Centre, University of Reading, UK, 285 pp. Stewart, JI (1991) Principles and performance of response farming. In Climatic Risk in Crop Production: Models and Management for the Semiarid Tropics and Subtropics. Eds R.C. Muchow and J.A Bellamy. CAB International: U.K. pp 361-382.

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