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RE: Recent Poll1 ________________________________________________________________________ Congressman Brad Sherman is the likely winner of the election in the new 30th congressional district. These are the results of a just completed survey in the new congressional district from initial match-ups with no information given about either candidate: Three-way race: Congressman Brad Sherman, Democrat 42% Businessman Mark Reed, Republican 26% Congressman Howard Berman, Democrat 17% Two-way race: Congressman Brad Sherman, Democrat 51% Congressman Howard Berman, Democrat 24% Note: Under the new California election law, all voters are given the opportunity to choose among all candidates in the June primary. The top two candidates go on to the November ballot, even if they are both from the same party. Sherman currently represents just over half the voters in the new 30th CD. Sherman is strong in his current district (CD27), winning 52 percent support there in the three way match-up with only 9 percent for Berman and 24 percent for Reed. In contrast, Berman barely ekes out a plurality in the less than a quarter of the district that he currently represents (CD28), leading Sherman by only 32 percent to 30 percent, while Reed draws 21 percent support. Despite his prominence in Washington, Berman has a far lower profile in his district than Sherman has in his. Just 37 percent of voters are favorable toward Berman in his own district (14 percent unfavorable) and only 27 percent are favorable to him in the
Survey of 600 likely general election voters in the new 30 th CD in California conducted by professional interviewers August 14-18, including an oversample of likely primary voters down weighted to their proportion in the electorate; margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points for the general electorate and plus or minus 5 percentage points for the primary.
508 8th Street, S.E., Washington, D.C. 20003 202/547-3000 Fax 202/547-3110
Brad Sherman for Congress The Feldman Group, Inc.
newly drawn 30th Congressional District. In contrast, 46 percent of voters are favorable toward Sherman in the part of the new district he now represents (18 percent unfavorable) and 43 percent are favorable in the new district as a whole. These two members’ styles and profiles in the district result in voters choosing Sherman over Berman on being visible in the community (53 percent to 24 percent among primary voters and 47 to 20 percent among all voters) and listening to San Fernando Valley residents (53 percent to 30 percent among primary voters and 48 percent to 27 percent among all voters). Voters are critical of Congress. Only 25 percent of voters rate the performance of Democrats in Congress positively and only 15 percent rate the performance of Republicans in Congress positively. Even among registered Democrats, just 40 percent believe their own party does a good job in Congress. Voters in the new district are not favorably impressed by long-term service in Congress, and very strongly disapprove of taxpayerfunded travel, even when undertaken by senior members of the Foreign Affairs Committee. Sherman is simply better known and more popular in this San Fernando Valley district and voters want his visible, local style of representation. ###