M*E*M*O*R*A*N*D*U*M

TO: FROM: DATE: Larry Joe Doherty for Congress Campaign Donna Victoria, Goodwin Simon Victoria Research October 1, 2008

The Congressional race for Texas 10th Congressional District has closed to a FIVE-point race as Larry Joe Doherty has gained on his opponent and Mike McCaul has failed to capitalize on his incumbency – if incumbency can even be seen as an advantage in these anxious days. His survey was conducted September 28-30, as the House bailout bill was failing. Key results are as follows: • In the initial trial heat, McCaul gets 43% of the vote to Doherty s 38%,a scant five percentage-point lead that shows McCaul’s support as completely unchanged from our May baseline (also 43% McCaul), while Doherty has gained from 34% in May. McCaul was well short of the 50% mark in May, but it is doubly significant now, with only 4 weeks left, that he has done nothing to strengthen his position. • McCaul has failed to capitalize on the biggest advantages of incumbency, and time is running out. While we made this same point in May, the fact that McCaul has not used the intervening time to work his district or strengthen his position is baffling. A fewof his problematic ratings, any of which can be taken as danger signs for an incumbent:  Four in ten likely voters (41%) do not even recognize his name, the most basic measure of a politician’s strength. While he has gained six percentage points in name I.D. in five months, it has all been negative.  His job rating is utterly anemic at 33% positive, 38% negative, and 29% unsure – his negative rating has risen 9 points since May. He receives net negative job ratings from Democrats, Independents, and Undecided voters.  His vote to Re-Elect is 29% -- 37% have no idea howto answer this question. • McCaul s weak image scarcely a month before Election Day allows others to fill-in-the-blanks for voters; and when it comes to McCaul s record on regulating financial malfeasance, those answers aren t pretty. McCaul has taken vast campaign contributions, over a half million dollars’ worth, from the very same industries asking for voters to bail them out, and he has voted against any attempts to rein in executive pay, to give workers the same pensions rights and rules as their CEOs, and McCaul even voted against Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reforms this spring. His vote(s) on this week’s bailout or future bills is immaterial; voters are infuriated to be in this situation and McCaul has been part of the deregulation crewthat has gotten us here. • Doherty is a strong candidate with the right message at the right time. His “Texas Justice” image has always been about representing the powerless against the powerful; Larry Joe Dohertyrepresents a newvoice and new direction to voters, and he believes passionately in his ability to do a better job representing this district’s needs. This memorandum reports on the findings of a poll taken in the Tenth Congressional District of Texas Sept. 28-30, 2008. Four hundred registered, likely 2008 voters were interviewed. All questions about this memo should be referred to Goodwin Simon Victoria Research (donnav@ gsvresearch.com). Donna Victoria has been conducting polls in congressional races since 1990. In 2006, she helped Dave Loebsack (IA-CD2) engineer a victory over a 32-year incumbent, one of only two victorious Democratic challengers in the country who were not targeted by the DCCC’s Red to Blue campaign.

Sign up to vote on this title
UsefulNot useful