Type of the Paper (Article) 1

A Monte Carlo-based approach to assesses the reinforcement de- 2

passivation probability of RC structures: simulation and analysis 3

Emerson Felipe Félix1,*, Isabela da Silva Falcão1, Larissa Gabriela dos Santos1, Rogério Carrazedo2 and Edna 4
Possan3 5

1 Department of Civil Engineering, São Paulo State University at Faculty of Engineering and Sciences, 6
Guaratinguetá. 7
2 Department of Structural Engineering, University of São Paulo at São Carlos School of Engineering. 8
3 Latin American Institute of Technology, Infrastructure and Territory, Federal University of Latin American 9
Integration. 10
* Correspondence: emerson.felix@unesp.br 11

Abstract: In this work we present a simple approach to assess the concrete durability using Monte 12
Carlo simulation technique (MCS). It is proposed a simple procedure to predict the reinforcement 13
depassivation probability of concrete structures subjected to corrosion due to CO2 or chloride (Cl-) 14
diffusion. The applicability is tested by a case study of reinforced concrete structures subjected to 15
different Brazilian environmental conditions. Random events were generated using MCS to create 16
several design life scenarios. It is found that the probability of corrosion initiation due to carbonation 17
is more significant in urban centers, and the compressive strength of concrete has significant influ- 18
ence in the rate of reinforcement depassivation. Results had also shown that the probability of de- 19
passivation due to chloride ingress is influenced by the chloride content in surface, concrete cover, 20
compressive strength, relative humidity, and temperature, in order of importance. Furthermore, it 21
was observed that purely deterministic approaches are not able to adequately assess the durability 22
limit states of concrete structures in the presence of CO2 or Cl-. Incorporating probabilistic ap- 23
proaches, can be a valuable tool in the civil construction industry, to improve the durability, relia- 24
bility and safety of concrete structures. 25

Keywords: Durability limit states; concrete carbonation; chloride diffusion; Monte Carlo simulation 26
27

1. Introduction 28

Citation: To be added by editorial

Managing the durability of civil infrastructure involves high costs, and with limited 29

staff during production.

public resources, it requires establishing priorities for maintenance, rehabilitation, and 30
replacement. Thus, a holistic design approach based on lifespan is required [1]. 31
Academic Editor: Firstname Last-
One of the main causes of lifespan reduction in reinforced concrete structures is the 32
name
reinforcement corrosion [2]. According to the World Corrosion Organization, the costs 33
Received: date involved with reinforcements concrete (RC) corrosion are higher than 3% of the Gross 34
Revised: date Domestic Product (GDP) in several countries. Corrosion in reinforced concrete structures 35
Accepted: date stands out among other deteriorating mechanisms, with occurrence rates up to 48% in 36
Published: date South Africa, 25% in the United Kingdom, 36% in India and 31% in the United States [3]. 37
For example, in Brazil, corrosion has an occurrence rate that varies from 14 to 64%, de- 38
pending on the region analyzed [4–6]. 39
Copyright: © 2023 by the authors. The corrosion of RC rebars is an electrochemical process due to differences in the 40
Submitted for possible open access concentrations of dissolved ions, in which a region becomes cathodic and another anodic, 41
publication under the terms and resulting in loss of the material, generating corrosion rust, and consequently, reduction of 42
conditions of the Creative Commons its mechanical capacity [7]. The formation of rust generates internal stresses in the inter- 43
Attribution (CC BY) license face between steel and concrete leading to cracks towards the concrete surface [2–8]. 44
(https://creativecommons.org/license
s/by/4.0/).

Buildings 2023, 13, x. https://doi.org/10.3390/xxxxx www.mdpi.com/journal/buildings

Buildings 2023, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 21

According to Helene [9] and Tuutti [10], corrosion is generally associated with con- 45
crete carbonation (diffusion of CO2) or diffusion of chlorides present in the atmosphere. 46
Regardless of the corrosive process, the mechanism can be divided into two stages, initi- 47
ation and propagation, with the transition characterized by the depassivation of steel, in 48
which the depth of diffusion of the aggressive agent (y d) is equal to the concrete cover 49
(Cnom). Figure 1 exemplifies the stages of initiation, depassivation and propagation, in case 50
of corrosion by carbonation. Chloride corrosion can be described analogously but by the 51
corrosion agent and how it propagates. 52

53
Figure 1. Reinforcement corrosion in RC structures due to CO2 diffusion. 54

The propagation period is generally characterized by the corrosion rate and the qual- 55
ity of the concrete that withstands internal stresses due to the formation of rust, also 56
known as ferric oxide [10,11]. 57
Due to the magnitude of the tensile stresses generated by corrosion rust, macro fis- 58
sures develop, further strengthening the entry of aggressive agents, increasing the level 59
of concrete degradation and, consequently, reducing its lifespan [11,12]. 60
Concerning the corrosion modeling, most researchers are focused on the corrosion 61
initiation stage, associated to the design life, developing models to estimate the diffusion 62
depth or the time for the depassivation of the reinforcement considering the diffusion of 63
dioxide carbon [6,13–18] or chlorides [19–28]. 64
A natural drawback to assess the corrosion front is the influence of the material prop- 65
erties and the exposure environment in the diffusion process. There are several uncertain- 66
ties in these parameters, as well as in the parameters of any mathematical model that sim- 67
ulate the deteriorating mechanism, preventing a deterministic analysis of the problem 68
[5,16]. 69
Ramezanianpour et al. [29] noticed that purely deterministic approaches are not able 70
to peoperly assess the lifespanspan of concrete structures subject to corrosion, and that is 71
required to analyze the problem considering the randomness of the different parameters 72
involved. 73
With the advances in computing and the advent of the theory of reliability applied 74
to the analysis of structures, modeling of structural phenomena considering uncertainties 75
of the parameters has become attractive because it allows the treatment of these uncer- 76
tainties in a more consistent theoretical way through statistical associations [30]. Probabil- 77
istic analysis via reliability theory offers an alternative and efficient methodology to assess 78
the performance and safety of structures [31,32]. 79
Currently, there are different methods to assess performance and reliability of con- 80
crete structures [21,22,32–35]. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is a powerful 81
method for this kind of analysis since it simultaneously considers uncertainties and ran- 82
dom parameters involved in the problem [36,37]. It is a non-deterministic statistical nu- 83
merical method for simulating random variables. 84
The Monte Carlo simulation uses a sampling technique for random variables to build 85
a set of values that describes failure and safety domain, classified as a robust statistical 86
Buildings 2023, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 21

procedure of analysis by sampling [36,38]. Thus, coupling of the diffusion laws with reli- 87
ability algorithms, such as the Monte Carlo method, results in a more consistent, compre- 88
hensive, and reliable approach than deterministic processes, as shown in the recent works 89
that deals with the lifespan of reinforced concrete structures subject to corrosion 90
[21,30,34,36,39,40]. 91
For example, Liberati et al. [30] used a probabilistic approach to analyze the durabil- 92
ity of a beam designed according to Brazilian structural design codes NBR 6118 [41]. Cor- 93
rosion initiation was determined using Fick's diffusion law, whereas Faraday's corrosion 94
laws are adopted to model the loss of metal. The probability of structural failure was de- 95
termined using Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicated that the design procedures 96
presented in [41] leads to probabilities of structural failure with the safety values recom- 97
mended by [42], which range from 10-3 to 10-4. 98
Aslani and Dehestani [34] conducted a reliability analysis on the performance of con- 99
crete structures under corrosion. Monte Carlo simulation was used to predict corrosion 100
initiation and residual lifetime associated with crack propagation until failure. They con- 101
cluded that the stochastic gamma process is appropriate to evaluate the probability of 102
failure associated to the limit state of load-bearing capacity and the Monte Carlo simula- 103
tion technique is appropriate to evaluate the probability of failure associated to the limit 104
state of serviceability. 105
Lizarazo-Marriaga et al. [39] proposed a probabilistic method based on the Monte 106
Carlo’s to estimate the corrosion initiation in fly ash concrete. The chloride diffusion coef- 107
ficient, concrete porosity, and external chloride concentrations were used as stochastic pa- 108
rameters. Results demonstrated that a probabilistic approach to evaluate probability of 109
the corrosion initiation is feasible. 110
Different scenarios considering the time of corrosion initiation and the influence of 111
the chloride diffusion coefficient for different loadings were proposed and analyzed by 112
[21]. The authors carried out stochastic analyses to determine the probability of failure of 113
steel bars, and to evaluate the influences of the internal and external factors. Results show 114
that stochastic approaches plus advanced solutions allow, in a more complete way, the 115
sustainability decision-making process during the design phase, maintenance, inspec- 116
tions, and repair. 117
Although there has been progress in the study of reinforced concrete corrosion, the 118
probabilistic methods have a certain level of complexity that prevents their dissemination 119
among designers and in the civil construction sector. 120
By providing a simplified calculation method, designers and engineers can more eas- 121
ily incorporate durability considerations into their designs, leading to structures that are 122
better able to resist corrosion and maintain their structural integrity over time. This can 123
result in cost savings by reducing the need for costly maintenance and repairs over the 124
life of the structure. 125
In this sense, in this work we coupled analytical models for diffusion of Cl - and CO2 126
into concrete and the Monte Carlo simulation technique to generate a simple yet efficient 127
approach to estimate the reinforcement depassivation probability of concrete structures 128
in urban environments. To show the approach applicability, a case study is presented with 129
five Brazilian environment conditions and concrete made with distinct mixes. 130

2. Modeling 131
The proposed approach to estimate the reinforcement depassivation probability due 132
to CO2 or ion chlorides diffusion is shown in Figure 2. The first step consists in collecting 133
data and defining the boundary conditions of the structure, such as the geometry of the 134
structural element, the reinforcement rate and its covering, the exposure conditions of the 135
surrounding environment and the characteristics of the constituent materials. 136
In the second stage, it is defined the aggressive agent to which the concrete is ex- 137
posed. Ingress of CO2 is indicated for urban environments far from the coast, and ingress 138
of Cl- for structures located in coastal regions and close to the sea. The combined effect of 139
Buildings 2023, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 4 of 21

the two aggressive agents is not addressed in this work and can be seen in Felix et al. [18] 140
and Zhu et al. [43]. 141

142
Figure 2. Flow chart of the probabilistic approach. 143

In the third step of the process the database of samples for probabilistic analyses is 144
created. Samples are created using the importance sampling technique [44]. These sam- 145
ples are created for the main parameters involved in the corrosion phenomenon: com- 146
pressive strength of concrete, reinforcement cover, temperature, relative air humidity, 147
condition of exposure to rain, and levels of CO2 and Cl- present in the atmosphere. 148
Finally, the fourth and last step is the process of determining the depassivation prob- 149
ability, which is the probability of corrosion initiation, where analytical formulations are 150
used to represent the diffusion of aggressive agents. Simulations were conducted using 151
the Monte Carlo simulation technique. The formulations used to map the diffusion of CO 2 152
Buildings 2023, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 5 of 21

and chlorides and the coupling of these models with Monte Carlo simulation are defined 153
next. 154

2.1. Models to mapping the CO2 or Cl- diffusion in concrete 155

When the concrete structures are in coastal regions, the corrosion of the reinforce- 156
ment is predominantly a function of Cl- concentration. In structures located in urban re- 157
gions and far from the coast, corrosion occurs mainly due to the CO2 diffusion [45]. Nev- 158
ertheless, Taffese and Sistonen [46] reported that a structure located in an urban region 159
may not trigger corrosion by carbonation. The authors report that it is necessary to assess 160
which aggressive agents (CO2 or Cl-) is in greater proportion in the environment around 161
the structure thus considered responsible for the corrosion initiation. 162
Knowing this, several models have been developed over time. Until the mid-1980s, 163
CO2 or Cl- diffusion models were obtained utilizing regressions techniques, considering 164
different factors, such as the water/cement ratio (w/c), the type of cement, and the com- 165
pressive strength of concrete [47]. 166
Afterwards, some researchers inserted some aspects related to the exposure environ- 167
ment, and the material's resistance to the diffusion of aggressive agents [15,26,28,48,49]. It 168
was possible to determine the diffusion front with greater accuracy, as in the models de- 169
veloped by Andrade et al. [50] for Cl-, and by Possan et al. [16] for carbonation. 170
To determine the carbonation depth of concrete, it is used in this work the formula- 171
tion proposed by Possan et al. [16] presented in Equation (1). Some parameters are ob- 172
tained according to the concrete characteristics and the environment conditions. Other 173
parameters regarding Possan’s Model are indicated in Tables 1 and 2. 174
1 3
20 𝑘𝑓𝑐 𝑡 2 𝑘𝑎𝑑 . 𝑎𝑑 2 𝑘𝑐𝑜 . 𝐶𝑂2 𝑘𝑅𝐻 (𝑅𝐻 − 0.68)2
𝑦 = 𝑘𝑐 . ( ) . ( ) .exp [( )+( 2 )−( )] . 𝑘𝑐𝑒 (1)
𝑓𝑐 20 40 + 𝑓𝑐 60 + 𝑓𝑐 100 + 𝑓𝑐

where y is the average carbonation depth of the concrete (in mm), fc is the compressive 175
strength of the concrete (in MPa), kc is related to the type of cement used (Table 1), kfc is 176
related to the axial compression strength of the concrete, depending on the type of cement 177
used (Table 1), t is the age of the concrete (in years), ad is the content of addition (in % to 178
the cement mass) , kad is related to additions depending on the type of cement used (Table 179
1), RH is the average relative humidity (in %*0.01), KRH is related to relative humidity, 180
depending on of the type of cement used (Table 1), CO2 refers to the CO2 content in at- 181
mosphere (in %), kco2 is related to the CO2 content of the environment, depending on the 182
type of cement used (Table 1), kce is related to exposure to rain, depending on the exposure 183
conditions of the structure (Table 2). 184

Table 1. Model coefficients as a function of concrete characteristics [16]. 185

Concrete characteristics Environmental conditions

Cement type Cement fc Mineral admixture CO2 RH
Kc Kfc Kad KCO2 KRH
CEM I1 19.80 1.70 0.24 18.00 1300
CEM II/A-L2
21.68 1.50 0.24 18.00 1100
CEM II/A-S3
CEM II/B-S3 22.48 1.50 0.32 15.50 1300
CEM II/A-V 4 23.66 1.50 0.32 15.50 1300
CEM III/A5 30.50 1.70 0.32 15.50 1300
1 Ordinary Portland Cement - Equivalent to Brazilian Cement CP I and CP V/ASTM C 150. 186
2 Portland cement with limestone filler - Equivalent to Brazilian Cement CP II F/ASTM C 150. 187
3 Portland cement with slag - Equivalent to Brazilian Cement CP II E/ASTM C 595/IP. 188
4 Portland cement with pozzolan - Equivalent to Brazilian Cement CP II Z/ASTM C 595/IS. 189
5 Portland cement with slag - Equivalent to Brazilian Cement CP III/ASTM C 595. 190
6 Portland cement with pozzolan - Equivalent to Brazilian Cement CP IV/ASTM C 595. 191
Buildings 2023, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 6 of 21

192

Table 2. Model coefficients as a function of exposure conditions [16]. 193

Exposure conditions Coefficient KCE

Indoor, sheltered from rain 1.30
Outdoor, sheltered from rain 1.00
Outdoor, exposed to rain 0.65
194
To determine the depth of chloride penetration, it is used the analytical formulation 195
developed by Andrade et al. [50], presented in Equation (2). The author reports that the 196
formulation was obtained considering that the chloride diffusion is proportional to the 197
temperature, relative humidity, and the external chloride concentration, and it is inversely 198
proportional to the concrete compressive strength, the type of cement, and the type and 199
mineral additions content. 200

𝑈𝑅0.7 . 𝑇 0.1 . 𝐶𝑙 0.7

𝑦 = 7.35 [ ] . √𝑡 (2)
𝑘1 . 𝑓𝑐𝑘 . 𝑘2 (1 + 𝐴𝑑)0.2

where y is the depth of critical chloride concentration (in mm), fck is the concrete compres- 201
sive strength (in MPa), T is the room temperature (ºC), k1 is a variable related to the type 202
of cement (Table 3), t is the age of the concrete (years), Ad is the content of addition (in % 203
to the cement mass), k2 is the variable related to the additions (Table 4), UR is the average 204
relative humidity (%), Cl- refers to the surface concentration of chlorides (%). 205
Some parameters are dependent on the cement type and the addition type used in 206
the concrete mix design, as shown in Tables 3 and 4. 207

Table 3. Model coefficients as a function of the cement type [50]. 208

Cement type Coefficient K1

CEM I 0.95
CEM II/A-L 1.00
CEM II/A-S
0.98
CEM II/B-S
CEM II/A-V 1.05
CEM III/A 1.21
CEM IV/A
1.17
CEM IV/B
CEM I 0.95
CEM II/A-L 1.00
209

Table 4. Model coefficients as a function of the concrete additions [50]. 210

Addition type Coefficient K2

Active Silica or without addition 1.00
Metakaolin 0.97
Fly Ash 0.76
211
These formulations (1) and (2) were selected due to adoption of simplified hypothe- 212
ses regarding the diffusion process and due to easily obtainable input parameters. Other 213
formulations, in general, require previously adjusted experimental data, rendering the 214
method infeasible or difficult to apply. 215
Buildings 2023, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 7 of 21

2.2. Monte-Carlo Simulation 216

The Monte Carlo simulation technique is a numerical procedure to carry out random 217
experiments on reliability problems [30,36,37]. In this method, samples of random varia- 218
bles are used to describe the failure probability [38], according to Equation (3). 219

𝑃𝑓 = ∫ 𝑓𝑥 (𝑥1 , 𝑥2 , … , 𝑥𝑛 ) 𝑑𝑥1 , 𝑑𝑥2 , … , 𝑑𝑥𝑛 (3)

𝐺≤0

where Pf is the failure probability, fx(X) is the joint probability density function (joint PDF) 220
of the variables X. 221
The samples used to calculate the failure probability are constructed based on the 222
statistical distribution attributed to the random variable of the problem. As the method is 223
based on the simulation of the limit state function, the larger the sample generated, the 224
more accurate the description of the probability of failure or determined reliability [51]. 225
Evaluation of the integral defined in Equation (3) is almost impossible, requiring al- 226
ternative methods and procedures which are based on the concept of the reliability index 227
β [51]. The reliability index is defined as the distance between the midpoint and the point 228
of failure allocated on the limit state function, G(X) = 0, and it is related to the probability 229
of failure through the cumulative standard normal distribution function ϕ, according to 230
Equation (4). 231

𝑃𝑓 = 𝜙(−𝛽) (4)

The Monte Carlo simulation method consists of building samples for the random 232
variables involved in the problem. Thus, the probability of failure is calculated using an 233
estimator based on the evaluation of the limit state function, according to Equation (5). 234
Estimator I(xi) is calculated using Equation (6), assuming values of 1 or 0, failure or not, 235
respectively 236

𝑃𝑓 = ∫ 𝑓𝑥 (𝑥𝑖 ) 𝑑𝑥𝑖 = ∫ 𝐼(𝑥𝑖 ) 𝑓𝑥 (𝑥𝑖 )𝑑𝑥𝑖 = 𝐸[𝐼(𝑥𝑖 )] (5)

𝐺≤0 𝐺≤0

1, 𝐺(𝑋) ≤ 0
𝐼(𝑥𝑖 ) = { (6)
0, 𝐺(𝑋) > 0
The average value I(xi) will be an estimative for the probability of failure, so, accord- 237
ing to Equation (7), the failure probability can be estimated for the entire sample database. 238
𝑁
1
𝑃̅𝑓 = 𝐸[𝐼(𝑥𝑖 )] = ∑ 𝐼(𝑥𝑖 ) (7)
𝑁
𝑖=1

where N is the number of simulations, that is, the number of evaluations of the limit state 239
equation. In this work, samples were defined by the Importance Sample technique. To 240
Jacquemart et al. [44], the Importance Sample is an interesting theoretical approach for 241
estimating rare event probabilities on a continuous Markov process. 242
Once the method to estimate the probability of failure is defined, all that remains is 243
to define the limit state equation. Two are used in this work, G1 and G2, referring to the 244
probability of corrosion initiation due to concrete carbonation or chloride diffusion, re- 245
spectively. Equations (8) and (9) show the two limit states. 246
1 𝑘𝑐𝑜2 .𝑋4 𝑘 .(0,01.𝑋2 −0.68)2
20 𝑘𝑓𝑐 𝑡 2 [(
60+𝑋1
)−( 𝑅𝑈
100+𝑋1
)]
𝐺1 (𝑋) = 𝑋3 − {𝑘𝑐. ( ) . ( ) . 𝑒 𝑘𝑐𝑒 } (8)
𝑋1 20

𝑋2 0.7 . 𝑋6 0.1 . 𝑋5 0.7

𝐺2 (𝑋) = 𝑋3 − {7.35 [ ] √𝑡} (9)
𝑘1 . 𝑋1 . 𝑘2 (1 + 𝐴𝑑)0.2
Buildings 2023, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 8 of 21

where vector X is the vector of random variables, with X1 is the concrete compressive 247
strength (MPa), X2 the relative humidity (%), X3 the concrete cover (mm), X4 the content 248
of CO2 (%), X5 the concentration of chlorides (%) e X6 the temperature (°C). 249
According to Equations (8) and (9), failure occurs when Gi(X)≤0, and it does not fail 250
when Gi(X)>0. Thus, the failure occurs when the diffusion depth of the aggressive agents 251
is equal to or greater than the concrete cover. The remaining cases represent safe condi- 252
tions – without corrosion. 253

3. Case study 254

To show and test the approach applicability, a case study was conducted, where we 255
assessed the reinforcement depassivation probability of concrete beams with a generic 256
geometry, as shown in Figure 3. The structures were simulated considering the concrete 257
produced with different types of Portland cement (Table 1.a) and located in five different 258
Brazilian cities: Manaus (AM); Fortaleza (CE); Brasília (DF); São Paulo (SP); Florianópolis 259
(SC). These cities represent climatic aspects of each of the country's regions (North, North- 260
east, Midwest, Southeast, and South) and to consider the chloride ions or CO2 concrete 261
diffusion. It is important to mention that, in order to simplify the simulation, the beam 262
was modeled considering the same exposure on the four sides. 263

264
Figure 3. Dimensions of cross section beams (in mm) and surface exposure conditions. 265

For the proposed probabilistic approach, it is necessary to describe the random vari- 266
ables of the problem and their distribution functions. Data were collected on relative hu- 267
midity and temperature referring to the last years, CO2 content in the atmosphere, chlo- 268
ride content in surface, concrete compressive strength, and concrete cover thickness. 269

Table 5. Statistical parameters of average monthly temperature and humidity. 270

Variable City Mean Deviation Distribution function

Brasília 21.71 1.44 Normal
Florianópolis 21.08 3.33 Normal with Johnson transformation
T (°C) Fortaleza 27.23 0.52 Normal
Manaus 27.99 1.14 Log-normal
São Paulo 20.38 2.41 Normal
Brasília 63.54 13.24 Normal with Johnson transformation
Florianópolis 79.29 2.81 Normal
RH (%) Fortaleza 77.46 4.71 Normal with Johnson transformation
Manaus 77.96 6.42 Normal with Johnson transformation
São Paulo 73.39 4.80 Logistic
271
The climatic data related to temperature and humidity were collected for the five 272
cities in the last decade. They were extracted from the meteorological database of the Bra- 273
zilian National Institute of Meteorology [52]. Figures 4 and 5 show the frequency distri- 274
butions of the monthly average humidity and the monthly average temperature, respec- 275
tively. Table 5 presents the results obtained for the mean, standard deviation, and the 276
Buildings 2023, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 9 of 21

distribution function that best fitted the sample. For the analysis, the Normal, Lognormal, 277
Logistics, Gamma, Weibull, and Normal with Johnson transformation distribution func- 278
tions were tested to set the better distribution function. 279

280
Figure 4. Frequency of distribution of the monthly average humidity for the cities. 281

As seen in Figure 4 and Table 5, temperature distribution frequency of Florianópolis 282

presents a profile not represented by any of the basic distribution functions analyzed; 283
thus, it was necessary to perform a Johnson transformation on the variable, as shown in 284
the Equation (10). After the transformation, the variable could be then represented using 285
the Normal distribution. The same process was done for the distributions related to the 286
relative humidity in the cities of Brasília (Equation 11), Fortaleza (Equation 12), and Ma- 287
naus (Equation 13). 288

𝑇 − 14.2510
𝑇𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑠 = −0.206242 + 0.649269 ∙ 𝐿𝑁 ( ) (10)
26.8126 − 𝑇

𝑈𝑅 − 23.0873
𝑈𝑅𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑠 = −0.760113 + 0.865030 ∙ 𝐿𝑁 ( ) (11)
84.0951 − 𝑈𝑅

𝑈𝑅 − 67.5460
𝑈𝑅𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑠 = 0.409589 + 1.01403 ∙ 𝐿𝑁 ( ) (12)
91.4887 − 𝑈𝑅

𝑈𝑅 − 59.7484
𝑈𝑅𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑠 = −0.543247 + 0.876466 ∙ 𝐿𝑁 ( ) (13)
88.8229 − 𝑈𝑅
where Ttrans refers to the transformed temperature variable, T is the average temperature 289
(°C), UR is the average relative humidity (%), and URtrans is the humidity after Johnson’s 290
transformation. 291
Buildings 2023, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 10 of 21

292
Figure 5. Frequency of distribution of the monthly average temperatures for the cities. 293

Due to lack of data regarding the CO2 concentration and chloride content for the cities 294
analyzed, it was used the data of the country, presented by the CO2 Levels bureau[53] and 295
Liberati et al. [30], respectively. The data represents the distribution for the Brazilian ur- 296
ban environment. The mean, the deviation, and the functions used for these data can be 297
seen in Table 6. 298

Table 6. Statistical parameters of CO2 and Cl-, compressive strength, and concrete cover. 299

Variable Mean Deviation Distribution Data source

CO2 concentration (%) 0.041 0.0043 Normal [53]
Cl- concentration (%) 1.15 0.575 Log-normal [30]
Concrete compressive strength (MPa) 27.40 3.14 Normal [54]
Concrete cover (mm) 30 or 40 3.6 or 4.8 Normal [30,31,41]
300
Altogether, 423 experimental data collected by Helene and Terzian [54] for compres- 301
sive strength was used to characterize the variability of concretes produced in Brazil (see 302
Table 6). 303
For concrete cover, it was adopted the minimum value recommended for an envi- 304
ronment with aggressiveness class II for concrete structures subject to CO2 (30 mm), and 305
aggressiveness class III for structures subject to chlorides (40 mm), according to the Bra- 306
zilian concrete design code NBR 6118 [41]. The definition of the distribution function and 307
standard deviation, presented in Table 6, was done considering the data presented by 308
Liberati et al. [30] and Enright and Frangopol [31]. 309
Buildings 2023, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 11 of 21

4. Results 310
Results from the simulations, conducted with the case study, are described, and dis- 311
cussed below. The analysis Durability state limit (DSL), regarding the reinforcement de- 312
passivation and the initiation of reinforcement degradation, was conducted considering a 313
deterministic application of equations (1) and (2), and the probabilistic approach. 314

4.1. Deterministic analysis 315

Figure 6 shows the diffusion depths of CO2 and Cl into the concrete. The process of
- 316
concrete carbonation was considered for all cities, while chloride diffusion was considered 317
only for cities located in coastal regions, Florianópolis and Fortaleza. 318
For the carbonation analysis, the exposure environments that generate the maximum 319
and minimum carbonation depths in Equation (1) were employed - the indoor-protected 320
from rain and external-unprotected rain environments. Simulations were conducted for 321
beams with cross-section 22x40 cm (Figure 3), and concrete produced with Portland ce- 322
ment CEM III/A type, and with no content additions. 323

324
Figure 6. CO2 and chloride diffusion depth for the scenarios simulated. 325
Buildings 2023, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 12 of 21

Based on Figure 6, there is no occurrence of reinforcement depassivation by carbon- 326

ation for concrete structures located in external environments exposed to rain. For struc- 327
tures located in indoor environments and sheltered from rain, depassivation occurs in all 328
cases. 329
Considering a structure located close to the sea, the depassivation occurs due to dif- 330
fusion of chlorides. In Florianópolis and Fortaleza, as shown in Figure 6, the depth of 331
chlorides diffusion at the end of the analysis is two to four times higher than the carbon- 332
ation depth, showing that the action of chlorides is more meaningful and aggressive, as 333
reported by Taffese and Sistonen [46]. However, for Zhu et al. [40], in cases where there is 334
a combined action of chlorides and CO2, the initiation of corrosion must be analyzed con- 335
sidering the simultaneous action of the two mechanisms. There must also be considered 336
a synergistic effect between the aggressive agents, where they could reduce the structure’s 337
service life by up to 40% [43]. 338
Figure 6 also indicates that, for the durability requirements of the Brazilian standard 339
(NBR 15575 [55]), the specified concrete cover and compressive strength is attended de- 340
pending on the exposure conditions. Thus, the aggressiveness of the environment must 341
be carefully defined in the design stage so the structural element attends its design life. 342

4.2. Probabilistic analysis 343

The first step of the probabilistic analysis is to establish the number of samples and 344
simulations to provide reliable results. According to Liberati et al. [30], the probability of 345
failure of civil structures is between 10-3 and 10-6, so it is required about 103 to 105 limit 346
state simulations. As an option to reduce computational efforts, we decided to carry out a 347
convergence study. 348
In Figure 7, two convergence analyses are presented, referring to the variability of 349
the reliability index with the number of samples used in the simulations. The analyzes 350
were conducted considering the process of carbonation in the city of São Paulo (Figure 351
7.a) and chloride diffusion in the city of Florianópolis (Figure 7.b). The samples were gen- 352
erated with the Importance Sampling technique [44]. 353

354
Figure 7. Reliability index vs. number sample on the depassivation by (a) CO2 and (b) Cl diffusion.
- 355

Figures 7.a and 7.b show that the number of samples between 30,000 and 50,000 is 356
sufficient to converge the reliability index and the probability of failure of the structure. 357
Once the number of samples is defined, it is possible to estimate the probability of depas- 358
sivation considering the simulated scenarios. 359
The results presented in Figure 8 show that the reinforcement depassivation proba- 360
bility due to CO2 diffusion is approximately zero for the first ten years, for any condition 361
of exposure to rain. When analyzing the process of carbonation in an external environ- 362
ment and exposed to rain, the depassivation probability after 50 years is less than 10%, 363
which attends to the durability limit state, and is an acceptable probability for the rein- 364
forcement depassivation of concrete structures [56]. The durability limit state marks the 365
Buildings 2023, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 13 of 21

onset of durability failure as the reinforcement depassivation in a RC structure [57]. Ac- 366
cording to ISO 13823:2008 [58], the durability limit state is reached when the reliability 367
index exceeds the value of 1.6, which is equivalent to a failure probability of 0.2. 368

369
Figure 8. Depassivation probability due to CO2 and Cl diffusion.
- 370

For the indoor concrete structures, considering the carbonation process and element 371
sheltered from rain, the reinforcement depassivation probability reached 20% at the age 372
of 16-23 years, depending on the city. São Paulo was the city with the earliest probability 373
of depassivation reaching 20%, at the age of 16 years. It is a city wherethe relative humid- 374
ity has great variation, thus the structures may always be under drying/wetting cycles. 375
Possan et al. [57] observed that the diffusion of CO2 is highly affected by internal humid- 376
ity, and the carbonation chemical reaction would be better represented by internal mois- 377
ture than air relative humidity. Thus, to reach a more reliable analysis, it would be inter- 378
esting to use a diffusion model that considers the internal humidity of concrete. However, 379
using this parameter as an input to the model would make it impractical, since it is not 380
easy to collect the material’s internal humidity. 381
In chloride-induced depassivation analyses, it was found that the aggressiveness of 382
the environment generates depassivation probability curves with steeper slopes in the 383
first few years, with diffusion slowing down over time. Al-Alaily et al. [36] observed 384
through probabilistic analyses, using Monte Carlo simulation technique, that the level of 385
Buildings 2023, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 14 of 21

aggressiveness is primarily defined by the concrete's resistance, i.e., its quality, and that 386
in concrete without additions, the probability curve has high growth rates in the first few 387
years. The authors [36] showed that if metakaolin is added to produce the concrete, the 388
depassivation probability decreases, and the corrosion initiation is postponed. 389
To evaluate the influence of the input parameters, a sensitivity analysis of the random 390
variables considered in the probabilistic approach is shown in Figure 9. While figure 9.a 391
is related to the input parameters in the analysis with CO2 diffusion in concrete structures 392
in Manaus, Brasília, and São Paulo, Figure 9.b is related to the input parameters in the 393
simulation considering Cl- diffusion in Fortaleza and Florianópolis. 394

395
Figure 9. Sensitivity analysis considering depassivation due to (a) CO2 and (b) Cl- diffusion. 396

Figure 9 shows that the compressive strength, in the depassivation probability due 397
to the carbonation, had the same importance level of the chloride content in surface, when 398
the depassivation due to Cl- diffusion is analyzed. Thus, concrete structures located in 399
urban environments are more sensitive to the quality of concrete when subject to carbon- 400
ation. When the chloride content is predominant in relation to the content of CO2 in the 401
atmosphere, the chloride content in surface indicates the level of environmental aggres- 402
siveness, and concrete quality parameters such as concrete cover, and compressive 403
strength must be asserted to ensure the durability limit state. 404
Figure 10a and 10b show the depassivation probability curves for beams produced 405
with different types of Portland cement. Figure 10a shows the results of simulations con- 406
ducted with an indoor environment sheltered from rain, in São Paulo city. Figure 10b 407
shows the results of simulations conducted with structures located in Florianópolis for 408
depassivation due to chloride diffusion. 409

410
Figure 10. Depassivation probability in function cement type and for (a) CO2 or (b) Cl- diffusion. 411
Buildings 2023, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 15 of 21

Figure 10.a shows that beams produced with cements CEM III/A or CEM IV/A and 412
CEM IV/B have higher probability of depassivation by carbonation and less durability, 413
the inverse of depassivation due to chloride diffusion (Figure 10.b). Jiang et al. [59] and 414
Possan et al. [16] report the existence of negative influence of using additions in the car- 415
bonation process due to the reduction of the alkaline reserve of the concrete when pro- 416
duced with CEM III/A or CEM IV/A and CEM IV/B, which have high slag contents (from 417
35 to 70%) and pozzolana (from 15 to 50%) in their compositions, respectively. However, 418
Andrade [28] reports that concretes CEM III/A and CEM IV/A and CEM IV/B are more 419
resistant to chloride’s ingress. Rasheduzzafar et al. [60] and Helene [9] report that chloride 420
ions combine with tricalcium aluminate (C3A) to produce Friedel's Salt, which reduces 421
the number of chlorides in the pore solution, thus hindering its diffusion in the cementi- 422
tious matrix. 423
Besides, although CEM II/A-S and CEMII/B-S E and CEM II/A-V cement have addi- 424
tions in their composition (slag and pozzolan, respectively), the carbonation depths were 425
lower than those obtained in beams produced with CEM III/A or CEM IV/A and CEM 426
IV/B, because the cements have significantly lower addition content, thus with low reserve 427
of alkaline ions but enough to improve overall quality of concrete. The same analysis ap- 428
plies to the greater depths of chloride diffusion observed in CEM II/B-S and CP CEM II/A- 429
V cement, and lesser depths in CEM III/A, CEM IV/A and CEM IV/B. 430
Thus, the cement types that lead to greater durability against carbonation and chlo- 431
ride’s ingress were CEM III/A and CEM IV/A and CEM IV/B, respectively. Figure 11 432
shows the probability of reinforcement depassivation related to the beam’s simulations 433
produced with CEM III/A and CEM I cement, with different concrete compressive 434
strength (30, 40 and 50 MPa), in two environmental scenarios, the cities of São Paulo and 435
Florianópolis. 436

437
Figure 11. Depassivation probability in function of concrete cover at 50 years old structure for (a) 438
São Paulo and (b) Florianópolis. 439

The depassivation probability due to the ingress of CO2 in structures located in São 440
Paulo (Figure 11.a) with 30 MPa, and a concrete cover of 30 mm, is about 98% for CEM 441
III/A. It obviously does not guarantee safety of durability in this scenario. Even with CEM 442
I, the probability of depassivation is about 44%. To extend the durability limit state of a 443
structure with concrete cover of 30 mm, it would be recommended concretes produced 444
with CEM I with at least 40 MPa, reducing the probability of depassivation to less than 445
20%. 446
The depassivation probability due to chloride diffusion in concrete structures located 447
in Florianópolis (Figure 11.b) with 30 MPa, and a concrete cover of 40 mm is about 86% 448
for cement CEM I and 75% for CEM III/A. Only improving the quality of concrete by im- 449
proving its strength to 50MPa would reduce the probability of depassivation to less than 450
25%. 451
Buildings 2023, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 16 of 21

Figure 12 illustrates the effect of the concrete cover thickness on the reinforcement 452
depassivation, using contour maps referring to the variation on probability of depas- 453
sivation for structures with different ages (10, 30, and 50 years), considering beams pro- 454
duced with cement CEM III/A and compressive strength of 30 MPa. 455

456
Figure 12. Depassivation probability in function of concrete cover and structure age for a concrete 457
beam located in (a) São Paulo - considering carbonation process and (b) Florianópolis - considering 458
chloride diffusion. 459

As before, the first subfigure 12.a refers to a concrete beam subjected to carbon diox- 460
ide ingress at São Paulo in an indoor environment sheltered from rain. The second sub- 461
figure 12.b refers to a beam subject to chloride diffusion at Florianópolis. The environmen- 462
tal parameters employed in the simulation were defined in Tables 5 and 6. The probability 463
of depassivation is higher for chloride’s ingress, even with a cover of 40 mm. To ensure 464
protection, concrete cover must be increased. According to Palm et al. [61], association of 465
concrete cover and good practices for construction must be designed in every project to 466
increase service life and durability. 467

5. Conclusions 468
In this work, an approach based on the Monte Carlo simulation was established to 469
determine the reinforcement depassivation probability of concrete structures. To show the 470
approach applicability, a case study was presented, where five Brazilian environments 471
exposure conditions were simulated considering different concrete mixes. 472
Based on the results, it was possible to draw the following conclusions: 473
Buildings 2023, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 17 of 21

• The proposed approach is able to help RC structure designers to analyze the du- 474
rability limit state taking into account the influence of representative parameters 475
of CO2 and Cl- diffusion. 476
• To generate a reliable analysis with the proposed approach, results pointed out 477
that about 30,000 samples are enough to establish a convergence to the reliability 478
index and the depassivation probability. 479
• Results show that the depassivation due to carbonation process is influenced by, 480
in order of importance, CO2 concentration content, relative air humidity, con- 481
crete cover, and concrete compressive strength. For depassivation due to chlo- 482
rides, the parameters of influence are, in order of importance, temperature, the 483
relative air humidity, concrete compressive strength, concrete cover, and con- 484
centration of chlorides in the surface. 485
• In environments where chloride action is predominant, their content in the struc- 486
ture surface is an indicator of the aggressiveness. In these cases, an adequate 487
concrete cover and good practices of execution reduces in about 25% the proba- 488
bility of depassivation. 489
• The simulations showed that is recommended to use Portland cement with the 490
type CEM III/A, CEM IV/A or CEM IV/B to produce concrete located in environ- 491
ments under high chloride content in surface, and the cement CEM I, CEM II/A- 492
L, CEM II/A-S or CEM II/B-S are recommended for environments where the CO2 493
rate in the atmosphere is more predominant than the chloride content. 494
Results found in this work point out that purely deterministic approaches are not 495
able to properly evaluate the depassivation of concrete structures, because it is necessary 496
to consider the randomness of the different parameters. Furthermore, it is shown that the 497
proposed approach is advantageous in assessing the durability limit state in existing RC 498
structures, where engineers can make more informed decisions about the design, con- 499
struction, and maintenance of concrete structures, thereby increasing their lifespan and 500
reducing the risk of failure. Overall, incorporating models that consider the right param- 501
eters can be a valuable tool in the engineering industry, helping to improve the reliability 502
and safety of concrete structures. 503
As future work, we will focus on exploring the coupling Monte Carlo simulation with 504
Machine Learning techniques, such as regression threes and artificial neural networks, to 505
generate CO2 and chloride diffusion model that maps their combined effect, and to con- 506
sider the internal humidity of the material instead of the relative humidity of the air to 507
better represent the carbonation chemical reaction. 508
509
Author Contributions: Conceptualization, Emerson Felipe Félix, Rogério Carrazedo and Edna Pos- 510
san; Data curation, Emerson Felipe Félix, Isabela Falcão and Larissa dos Santos; Formal analysis, 511
Rogério Carrazedo; Funding acquisition, Emerson Felipe Félix, Rogério Carrazedo and Edna Pos- 512
san; Methodology, Emerson Felipe Félix; Project administration, Rogério Carrazedo; Software, Em- 513
erson Felipe Félix; Supervision, Edna Possan; Writing – original draft, Emerson Felipe Félix and 514
Larissa dos Santos; Writing – review & editing, Isabela Falcão, Rogério Carrazedo and Edna Possan. 515

Funding: This research was faud by the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological 516
Development (CNPq 141078/2018 and CNPq 310564/2018-2), the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento 517
de Pessoal de Nível Superior - Brasil (CAPES) - Finance Code 001 and by the EDITAL 01/2023- 518
PROPe/PROPEG of São Paulo State University. 519

University (UNESP), Brazil. 520

Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest. 521

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