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as terrorists increasingly target oil p roduction and infrastructure. (or throughout the world) since the 1970’s. political attentio n.S. and known oil rese rves are now primarily located in unstable developing nation states or within re mote geographic regions far from consuming nations. For many years after the beginning of its commer cial exploitation. Today oil supplies 40 percent of the w orld’s energy. and as producers such as Iran. Even though the U.S. BACKGROUND What has historically fueled and sustained the growth of the U. Today. and Nigeria grow more unstable. trailing only Saudi Arabia and the former Soviet Union.S. oil (petroleum) represented f our percent of the world’s consumed energy.S. at an average of 10. U. Anderson INTRODUCTION At the beginning of the 20th century. d ependence on foreign oil continues to grow2. However.S. oil reserves equate to less th an three years of the current daily consumption rate.S. Saudi Arabia. eco nomy has been oil. ener gy usage is in the form of oil. approximately 62 percent of U. could support its growing demand for oil simply by d rilling and pumping more oil out of the ground within its own border. Furthermore. David A. was importing 34.S. and those determined to disrupt its flow to promote their agenda. The U. the struggle to maintain access to adequat e energy supplies--always a critical mission for any nation--will become even mo re challenging and uncertain and will require more resources. It is becoming in creasingly more difficult to make meaningful oil discoveries. The global demand fo r oil continues to grow at an alarming and unsustainable rate. with 510. U. marginal cost of pr oduction is . No significant oil fields have been discovered in the U.S.000 oil wells already pumping oil in the U.OIL SECURITY AND THE NECESSITY FOR GLOBAL COOPERATION Dr. Today. as global oil pr oduction continues to lag behind demand. and military intervention to secure. is on the verge of a new kind of war—between those who are seeking oil and a re increasingly willing to go out and secure it. remains the third leading producer. Venez uela. As a result.5 barrels per well per day. imports total 67 percent of consumption. b y 1973 the U. 96 percent of which is transportation energy1.S.S. it seems more and more likely that the race for the remaining la st big reserves will be the dominant geopolitical theme of the 21st century. As demand for oil increases. and t he strategic petroleum reserve (barrels held by the government) is only approxim ately 90 days of supply. the U.8 percent of the petroleum it consumed. While nations have always co mpeted for oil. the economic growth and quality of life American s enjoy today is beyond comparison.

whose combined . in 2003 Algeria produced 1. To put thi s situation into perspective. Saudi Arabia.S. it is no longer c ost effective to drill more pumping wells.S.’ biggest supplier.4 percent. the U. while at the same time attempting to meet growing global demand. or at an annual rate of 14 percent. the third biggest supplier to the U. The two countries with t he highest growth rate of consumption of oil are China and India. Kuwait. the lowest level in more tha n 50 years3.S. only one barrel of oil is found for every six consumed. By the end of 2005 it had fallen to 25 percent. and the United Arab Emirates9. “Nearly two-thirds of the world’s oil reserves come from chronic ally unstable. Changing Global Consumption Demographics It should come as no surprise that as o ther nations move from agrarian based economies to industrial based economies. At current consumption ra tes. In total. and their combined annual output has dropped by over a million barr els a day since 20035.K. Energy demand in general is expected to grow by 50 percent over the next 20 years. share of the wo rld consumption of oil was 31. If forecasted production and consumption patterns prove true. many of the oil producing nations are not ena mored with the U. Today. with the exception of the Middle East.S. of which 40 percent will be met by oil. Saudi Arabia. even though its daily consumption rate has risen by 65 percent12. ninety-nine percent of the world’s oil comes from 44 oil prod ucing countries. continues t o be the greatest consumer of oil. only produces 4. is projected to reach pea k production by 20106. the U.86 million barrels per day. a new Algeria would need to be created in the Persian Gulf each and every ye ar beyond 2010 just to keep up with the projected increase in demand. While the U. At least 24 of these nations are past their peak in production capability and now in terminal decline.S.quickly approaching marginal revenue produced. peaked in 19974.and by 2020. World oil consumption is expected to grow 60 percent by 2020.000 barrels per day. Canada.S. Meaningful production increases are only possible from Iraq. it also means that production will thereafter de crease with time. reached peak production in 1973 and has since been in decline7. in 1999 . the U. According to data from the latest British Petroleum Statistical Rev iew of World Energy. 83 percent of the global oil reserves will be controlled by Middle Eastern nations. In 1970. The best producing well in the contin ental U. violence-prone Middle East countries whose dislike of American cu lture and policies has been forged for decades”11. in short order OPEC will control the oil market completely—in the face of it s own shrinking production capacity-. world oil production. Peaking means that the rate of o il production can not increase. Eighteen major oil-producing countries are now past their peak production. Middle East reserves will run out in 80 years10.S. In other words. the U. t hey too would become growing consumers of oil. cru de oil production was 4. peaked in 1970.1 million barrels per d ay. the U. By the end of 2005.S. Russia in 1987. Major oil companies are now replacing dwindling reserves by acquiring other oil companies instead of exploring for new fields8. however. Middle E ast producers are increasingly unable to offset reduced production by other nati ons. The general consensus is that global oil production will peak by 2010.

including lubricants. 9 gallons of fuel oil. Economic Impact of Oil Supply Shortfalls The greater the supply shortfall. China became the second leading oil cons umer. surpassing Japan and Germany13. the greater will be the adv erse economic affects. oil i s just as significant to U. the longer the shortfall. dependence on oil to be greater than ever. kerosene. two-thirds of oil consu med in the U. As of 2003. asphalt. inflation and unemployment. For the U. imported approximately 275 billion dollars’ worth of oil. It is directly linked to all market sectors because all depend on oil-consuming capital.3 barrels per year). Already. The figu re closely approximates the cost of OIF/OEF from Sep 2001-Dec 2005.S. Without timely mitigation.S.S. dependence on oil is deeply rooted in the economy. Even though energy expenditures h ave declined from about 14 percent of GDP in 1980 to only 7 percent today. oi l consumption within the U. to sustain a targeted annual economic growth of three percent. total trade deficit is from oil imports.S. and a degradation of living standards. and 11 gal lons of other products. Virtually certain are increases in balance of trade diffe rentials. During 2005.5 gallons of gasoline. In 2003 alone. one standard 42-gallon barrel of crude oil makes about 19 . will have to continue to increase. China’s and India’s per capita consumption rates are likely to increa se well into the future14. 4 gallons of jet fuel.6 m illion barrel per day consumption rate. and the average Indian (less than one per year). The U.S. went to meet transportation needs. the h igher the price increases. with a 5.S.S.S. the fifth leading producer of oil h as to import 41 percent of its oil to meet its growing demand. China. consumes 45 percent of all gasoline produced i n the world. one-third of the U. Increasing fuel and transportation costs and the rel ative fuel inefficiency of American vehicles have caused U.5 percent.5 percent and 5. ECONOMICS The U. the U. the long-r un impact on the developed economies will almost certainly be extremely damaging . GDP because much of its cost is hidden in the pric es of goods and services15. In 2003. When considering that th e average American consumes 25 barrels of oil per year compared to the average C hinese (consuming only 1. yet represents only five percent of the world’s population16. Over the course of the next two deca des China’s and India’s oil consumption is expected to grow at an annual rate of 7. respectively.S. whereas the industrialized countries of the world have forecasted growth of a mere one percent. . and petrochemic als to make plastics and agriculture products. one-fifth was consumed by ind ustry. it will take many years bef ore any significant improvements or breakthroughs reduce America’s oil consumption . national i nfrastructure. In spit e of President Bush’s energy program emphasizing more efficient use of oil and res earch and development of alternative energy sources. declines in the output of goods and servic es. For the record.population accounts for one third of the world’s population. and consumer habits. Ch ina’s crude oil imports increased 30 percent.

S. Thus.S. recessions since 1969.S.. and competition over access to these vital economic as sets has intensified accordingly. economy approximately 4 trillion dollars. An interruption in the supply of oil would ent ail severe economic consequences. each 50 percent sustained increase in the price of oil will lower real U. the oil rich regions--the Persian Gulf. Future supply shortfall s associated with the peaking of oil production could cost the U. Supp ly interruptions would likely occur with greater frequency and for increasing le ngths of time as global oil production is gradually reduced17. GDP would dr op by a full percentage point. The worst impact would be suffered by those nations and those aspects of na tional economies that could not obtain oil at any price affordable to them. Oil supply disruptions and oil price increa ses reduce economic activity. The effects of oil shortages on the U. and many more jobs may be lost in response to oil price increases than will be gained if oil prices were to decrease. If shortfalls were to persist. and oil intensity is increasing in developing countries as commercia l fuels replace traditional fuels and industrialization/urbanization continues.5 percent. S. where financial institutions and monetary authorities are often relative ly unsophisticated.S . causing them to rise--possibly leading to stag flation similar to that experienced during the oil crises of the 1970s19. and virtually every serious oil pri ce increase was followed by a recession. while oil price spikes may not be necessary to trigger a recession in the U.Developing countries suffer more than the developed countries from oil price inc reases because they generally use energy less efficiently and energy-intensive m anufacturing accounts for a larger share of their GDP. This problem is most pronounced for the poorest developing c ountries. high but stable prices would encourage conservation and investment in alternatives. Oil supply disruptions over the past three decades have cost the U.S. are also likely to be asymmetric. the s ubsequent inflation caused by oil price increases would adversely affect short-t erm and long-term interest rates. In addition. continues to seek an annual su stained economic growth of 3 percent. Economic competition drives international relations. even more th an all of the oil supply disruptions since the early 1970s combined.S. Again. developing co untries use more than twice as much oil to produce a unit of output as developed countries. U. the Caspian Sea basin. an increase in oil import costs c an also destabilize trade balances and increase inflation more in developing cou ntries. If oil prices were to double. Oil shortfalls and price increases will cause larger responses in job loss than job creation. Furthermore. Behind this shift in strategic geograph y is a new emphasis on the securing of oil supplies. and the South China S ea--have become important strategically. COMPETITION FOR OIL AND GEOPOLITICAL FALLOUT Since the end of the Cold War. Oil price increas es have preceded U.S..S. a 50-100 percent increase in oil prices wo uld lower that growth by 16-33 percent18. G DP by approximately 0. The vulnerability of developing countries is exacerbated by their limited abilit y to switch to alternative fuels. Prices that repeatedly skyrocket an d then plummet could devastate entire economies and discourage long-term investm ent. they have proven to be sufficient over the past 38 years. if the U. . For the U. On average. the major importing countries now consider the protection of this flow a significant national concern20. but oil price declines have an even less beneficia l impact.

has stated that the protection of America’s oil supp lies is the most important national security priority. Chi na aggressively filled the void. Competitio n is growing among consuming nations for oil within the Middle East. President Bush. which states that “any attempt by an outs ide force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assa ult on U. and S ao Tome—and. Spencer Abraham expressed the importance of oil and economic strength. Military force will be an increasingly important prereq uisite to safeguard the flow of foreign oil”22.000 barrels per day in Sudan. African oil is arguably the most contested. it would adversely affect the U. Angola. Donald Rumsfeld. therefore the U. could be relying on Africa for a quarter of its oil supplies a ccording to the U.S. Sudan and developing interests i n Equatorial Guinea. China conducted much of its drilling behind per imeters of bermed earth guarded by troops to protect against rebel attacks31. Gabon.S. the mili tary made it a priority to seize the oil ministry building23.S. Cameroon. and when entering the city of Baghdad. China currently derives a quarter of its oil imports from Afric a. competition for access to shrinking oil reserves will only grow more intense in the years to come24. imports.S. Not only would o il supply disruptions hurt the U.S. Chad. Latin America. “Energy security is a fundamental compone nt of national security. Chad. Secr etary of Energy under the Clinton administration. with oil interests in Algeria. While serving as U.S. Nigeria is the fifth biggest source of U. In fact. the U. economy. as important. The U. to deny that access to China. and Nigeria30 When the U. Central Asi a. economy will become inc reasingly vulnerable25.S. Ch ina has now made Sudan its largest overseas production base. defense secretary.’ growing dependency on foreign oil will likely reach 90 percent by 2020. concluded that th e U. Another . the U. and demand soon to out pace production. The U. Robert Gates. National Intelligence Council.S.S. which consumes oil in quantities greater than most nations of the worl d.S. Within the next te n years. is building a network of military bases and diplomatic missions whose main goal is to protect American access to oil in volatile places such as Nigeria. with the U.In 1980 mounting troubles over oil prompted President Jimmy Carter to create wha t would be known as the Carter doctrine.S. particularly oil-exporting nat ions and those vulnerable to harboring terrorist groups. as compared to 22 percent from the Persian Gulf. Given the fragility of many African nations. vital interests and will be repelled by any means necessary (includi ng military force) in order to keep the oil flowing”21. the very first m ilitary objective during the 2003 invasion of Iraq was to secure the oil fields and refineries of southern Iraq. With global energy consumption rising by an estimated two percent annually.S. cut ties with Sudan.S. who in 200 5 took part in a war game simulating disruptions to oil trade. China’s minister for state land and resources remarked in 2002 that rising demand for im ported oil will “increase supply side risks…and will damage the country’s capacity to ensure its oil resources as well as economic and political security”27. India and other large con sumers of oil29. they are equally held by Chinese l eaders regarding their country’s national security and economic well-being. China National Petr oleum Corporation (CNPC) owns 40 percent of the Sudan’s Greater Nile Petroleum Ope rating Company and pumps over 300. and Africa. As strong as these views and concerns are.S. had few short-term fixes if supplies were interrupted26. currently receives 15 percent of its oil supplies from Africa.S. The new U. and then-Secretary of Defense. military. accounting for half of Nigeria’s oil export s28. East and South China Seas.

S.S. helicopters to Mali and Angola. as well as providing uniforms to Mozambique’s army. Al geria. China’s grow ing energy partnership with Sudan represents one of a number of areas where Sino -U. and the U. South Korea and India are the world’s fourth and sixt h largest energy consumers. Videsh. Elsewhere. obtained a 25 percent stake. it equ ates to 400. Sudan is now the seventh biggest oil producer in Africa after Nigeria.600 kilometer (1. coupled with China’s attempt to sec ure energy resources by offering these nations military assistance. U. having deployed peacekeepers to L iberia in December 2003--two months after Liberia switched its diplomatic recogn ition from Taiwan to China. India also holds a stake in the Greate r Nile Oil Project in Sudan.S. Sinopec. China sees Russian oil as vital for its own “energy security” and is pushing for a 1 . China abstained in the vote of a final weaker resolution. Japan. or arms -for-oil could exacerbate instability in the region35.000 miles) pipeline to P ort Sudan on the Red Sea--where China’s Petroleum Engineering Construction Group b uilt a tanker terminal--bringing Sudanese oil to the international market. Internal crises ranging from poverty to poor governance and civil war. and China are no t the only nations aggressively seeking energy resources in Africa. Recently. and Equatorial Guinea32. the Chinese ha ve offered the Saudis access to . while India’s Oil Natural Gas Corporation. Many m ore of China’s diplomatic initiatives in Africa are in direct conflict with U. In return.400-mile pipeline south to Daqing. aid. Angola. is seeking a 2. For example. China has also sent a peacekeeping contingent to the Democratic Republic of Congo. having invested U. Japan. and weapons to Namibia and Sierra Leone.S. China and Japan have been engaged in a diplomatic batt le over access to the big oil fields in Siberia. China38.Chinese firm. China’s most controversial oil approa ch has been made to a country America once regarded as its most trusted oil ally : Saudi Arabia. the United Nations Security Council was forced to water dow n a resolution condemning atrocities in the Darfur region of Sudan to avoid a Ch inese veto. China supplied US$1 billion in arms to bot h Ethiopia and Eritrea during their war from 1998-2000. In 2004. $700 million in Sudan’s oil sect or. energy interests diverge. did in the years leading up to Wor ld War II—is that the likelihood of destabilizing countries like Sudan rises expon entially33. Libya. The U. the largest oil exporter in the world. Egypt. China is actively pursuing Russia as its major supplier37. attempts to contain these regimes bring it into direct confrontation with China’s energy security policies34.300-mile pipeline from Siberia to coastal Japan.S. as seen in October 2004 when China outbid India to buy an interes t in an offshore block in Angola36. Ko rea National Oil Corporation obtained 65 percent of oil and gas production right s in Nigerian offshore blocks. which depends entirely o n imported oil. The geopolitical implication of t his tolerance for instability by countries seeking strategic access to oil (such as China)—much as Britain. With Sudan and Iran together supplying China wit h 20 percent of its oil imports. China has also expanded its military presence in the region.000 barrels per day--or 80 percent of daily oil exports from Sudan. p olicy toward the region. respectively. While approximately only seven percent of Chinese oil imports come from Sudan.S. China and India have also been engaged in direct competition for African ene rgy resources. constructed a 1.

The BTC pipeline also addresses a U. Indonesia. Thailand. The ex-Soviet republics of Central Asia recognize oil to be the quickest way for them to secure their economic and political independence . According to testimony before the U.what will be the world’s biggest energy market and has provided it sophisticated C hinese weaponry.S. China even attempted to purchase Unocal by outbidding Chevron. 6. Ecuador . Since these countries are all landlocke d.760Km.000 offshore platforms42. and political ly unstable nations of Uzbekistan. Kazakhstan. Heritage Foundation. including ballistic missiles and other hardware that the U. The same countries also have proven gas deposits totaling over nine trillio n cubic meters.. Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan together have 15 billion barrels of proven oil reser ves. Kazakhstan. In the case of oil infrastructure (e. policy imperative helpi ng it to isolate Iran in the Caspian as well as in the Persian Gulf as punishmen t for its continued sponsorship of international terrorist . House of Representatives in March 19 99 by the conservative think tank. China also has a long standing alliance with Iran and ha s supported Iran’s efforts to develop nuclear power amid much protesting from the U. while giving China as much as it wants. OIL INFRASTRUCTURE AND TERRORISM Infrastructure Energy sources are both economic al and political strategic assets both for the producer countries and for the co nsuming countries. Tajikistan. entire ly. At its maximum capacity in about 2010. who is now threatening to cut off oil exports to the U. sought to exploit their oil reserves. and Y emen40. China is aggressively forging alliances and atte mpting mergers with other countries’ national oil companies such as Burma. Azerbaijan. The Azeri and Georgia n governments have seen BTC as their lifeline to Turkey and Europe rather than s imply a pipeline. Another study by the Institute for Afghan Studies placed the tot al worth of oil and gas reserves in the Central Asian republics at around U. Congress over national security concerns. and oil pipelines carry roughly ha lf of the world’s oil43. Iraq. Libya. and Turkmenistan shar e the majority of the region’s oil wealth. Venezuela is the fourth biggest supp lier of oil to the U. it will carry a through-flow of one million bar rels of oil a day. China has also made an alliance with Venezuela. they als o benefit the countries of transit. and Western Europe allies. they all depend on their neighbors for access to Western markets via pipeline s44. Peru. Egypt. and will be the central element of a projected $20 billion in vestment package that includes up-and downstream projects. The undeveloped. $ 5 trillion45. Kazakhstan. pipelines).S. Kuwait. the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline project (BTC) (lying underground) has enabled the transport of crude oil from Azerbaijan’s Caspi an fields through Georgian territory to Turkey’s port on the Mediterranean.g. Extending 1. and in many cases are considered of strategi c international or regional importance.000 miles of above gr ound pipelines41. There are over 400.S.S. The sale was subsequently stopped by the U.S.S.S. Oman. isolated.S. a nd Europe have refused to sell to the Saudis39.

000 barrels of oil into the Gulf of Aden53. Coercion of the core Western states: Ei ther to damage the U. the potential of damage has a lways been from single large attack on a major facility or node (extremely diffi cult to accomplish and relatively easy to recover from). Kazakhstan. higher costs of operating in conflict zones. Oman. U. Terrorism The war waged by terrorists and insurgents is not against conventional armies or nation-states. oil company Chevron-Texaco has partnered with a consortium including Russia. Fear alone has added 4-10 dollars to the cost of a barrel of oil51. a constant threat to oil and gas operations. etc. smuggling. Pipelines from Kazakhstan over l and to China. easy. Not only can Afghanistan play a role in hosting pipelines conn ecting Central Asia to international markets. The operational objective of global terrorist warfare is to separate a large u rban population from its infrastructure and take advantage of the collapse and c haos that result49. There are literally hundreds of active terrorists groups and insurgencies throughout the w orld. This price premium cost the U.) are radically i mproved”50. oil company Exxon-Mobi l to complete most of the work on a pipeline carrying oil from the Tengiz field in Kazakhstan to the Russian port of Novorossiisk48. As such. 2. have been seen as means for reorienting regional export routes toward new markets. In . Afghanistan is looking into laying oil and gas pipelines to the untapped petroleum reserves of Central Asia. and will continue to pose. terrorists pose.S.groups perpetrating attacks against American and allied interests and for its on going effort to develop nuclear capabilities46. are factored into oil prices. low-tech attacks that are nearly impossible to defend against (everything from pipeline destruction to employee kidnapping) . In the past. Delegitimization of the target state: Attacks meant to “hollow out” the state. The goals of these attackers can be divided into three complimentary categorie s: 1. through an inability to deliver critical services or a denial of income/investm ent to create zones of local control. export facilities. $40 b illion in 200452. and U. 3.S. transports and wells. The ability to disrupt production is substantially different today than an y terrorist threat faced in the past. calling for…”hitting wells and pipeli nes that will scare foreign companies from working there and stealing Muslim tre asures”.S. The document also highlighted the 2002 suicide bombing attack on a French -chartered oil tanker off the Yemeni coast killing a crew member and spilling 90 . or a target state through economic means. and of protecting and re pairing infrastructure. and from T urkmenistan through Afghanistan and onward to Pakistan and India. but the country itself has signifi cant oil and gas deposits47. from Turkmenistan across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan. pipelines. It is waged against economic and social infrastructure . An Al-Qaeda document obtained and translated in 2004 indicated Al-Qaeda’s intent to target oil infrastructure.S. Therefore. the profits gene rated by criminal enterprise (bunkering of oil. Criminal pr ofit: By increasing the prices of oil and its refined products. “Today’s threat is based on sustainable disruption—ongoing.

S. 264 acts of sabotage against o il infrastructure took place in 200457. Although Iraq is the most visible proble m. Even entire nations are vulnerable to systems disruption. Most existin g and proposed energy pipelines in the Caspian region run through conflict zones . there is also the possibility that the U. Chechen gue rrillas fighting for independence from Russia are going after its extensive pipe line infrastructure of roughly 31. the pipeline was attacked 170 times. as well as in and around Moscow59. and Ve nezuela provide approximately 40 percent of U. Nigeria and Colombia. In 2001. primarily the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia and the Nati onal Liberation Army. An afternoon’s work knocked out a country for more than five days. pipelines were blown up in Volograd. a Saudi wing of Al-Qae da posted a web statement further urging Al-Qaeda militants to attack oil facili ties all over the world. 3.000 miles. Mexico. Forty percent of its revenues are derived from oil. In 1999.mid-December 2004. Arab satellite channels aired an audiotape message by Osama b in Laden in which he called on his cohorts to take their holy war to the oil ind ustry and to disrupt supplies to the U. . the vulnerability is vast. 42 times. 2.000 bpd Cano Limon pipeline in Colombia. including Canada. Systems at tacks can provide amazing leverage. where terr orists groups. “Targeting oil interests is lawful economic jihad. Restoring service required building a route by-passing Chechnya through neighboring republic of Dagestan. There is no be tter way for the Chechens to hurt the Russian economy than by disrupting Russia’s ability to export crude oil. V enezuela stated it would reinforce its security measures. oil imports56.S. While global attention remains focused on Iraq. pipelines across the world in turbulent regions are sabotaged on a regular ba sis. and Stavropol. The attack was simpl e.” Al-Qaeda. have made it the most heavily attacked oil infrastructure in the world. 200655 In February 2007. It can be repeated again and again. Dages tan. and the attackers weren’t caught (nor are they likel y to be)60. Economic jihad in this era is the best metho d to hurt the infidels. In Iraq alone. Canada. In 2004.S. Pipeline paths through Ge orgia are problematic where separatists in South Ossetia and Abkhazia provinces clash with the Georgian government. terrorists knocked out two Gazprom natural gas pipelines and a critical electricity tower. In one instance. in 2002. In response. T he 780km pipeline has been attacked so frequently that the locals call it “the flu te” because of the perforations punched in it by guerrilla attacks58. pipelines have come under sustained assaults that governments seem powerless to stop. In the Caucasus. Russia is the world’s second-largest oil exporter. oil exports were suspended when the pipeline from Baku to Novorossiys k was ruptured due to the war in Chechnya. Mexico. from the Persian Gulf54. will be needed to provide security for the 100. This is a great example of how: 1. The combination deprived the country of heat and light for five days. Insurgents go af ter critical junctures in the pipeline system and focus on equipment that is dif ficult to repair or remanufacture. and Venezuela.

67 About 200. The pipeline was to stretch 1. China’s pi pelines connecting the northwest district of Xinjiang with neighboring Kazakhsta n is at the mercy of increasingly hostile Muslim Uighur minorities trying to bre ak away from the central Chinese government65. In 1998. refineries operating at or near full capacity68. Other partners in CenGas included the Saudi Arabian Delta Oil Company.S.S. An ethnic Somali rebel group claimed responsibility for the attack66. pumping stations. Korean Hyundai and Pakistan’s Crescent Group64. gunmen raided a Ch ineserun oil field in Ethiopia killing nine Chinese workers and kidnapping seven others.. While most of these lines are buried. the government of Turkmenistan. Pa kistan. The latter group seeks to seize power and replace existing governments with a sharia-based caliph ate for the purpose of jihad against the West. there is an increasing threat by Islamist groups operating in the C aucasus such as the Islamic Party of Eastern Turkestan. Indonesia. such as: 1. which fights for independence for oil-rich Assam state. which held a 46.S. the Japanese ITOCHU. Fortifying pipeline systems against cyber-security breaches69.5 percent st ake in Central Asia Gas (CenGas). Bolivia and Myanmar. Increasing system redundancy. the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. China h as also been vulnerable to terrorist attacks against oil/gas pipelines.S.In addition. In India. Saudi Arabia. An additional $600 million would have brought the pipeline to India. has taken responsibility for a number of pipeline attacks. 3. Chechen separatists and Hizb-ut-Tahrir al-Isami61.9 billion. Deploying aerial and ground patrols. More recently. and 4. T wenty large oil refineries are located in 12 nations. India. . An additional 180. and Georgia have created a special military force to guard the pipelines car rying oil from the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea62. UNOCAL. seven of these large refin eries are located in Kuwait. Deploying state-of-the-art surveillance equipm ent. Security experts have repeatedly pointed to the vulnerability of the domestic natural gas pipeline system. In response to such groups. the U . as well as the v ulnerability of U. Only four of the largest oil refineries are located within the U. a consortium that planned an ambitious gas pip eline across Afghanistan. Assam is the s ource of some 15 percent of India’s onshore crude oil production63. each processing approximately 3-4 percent of the crude oil refined in the U.271Km from Turkmenistan’s Dauletabad fields to Mult an in Pakistan at an estimated cost of $1. India and Russia—unstable regions and/o r where terrorists have been active. withdrew in frustration after several fruitless years. terminals and o ther facilities could be vulnerable. a separatist rebel group called Un ited Liberation Front of Asom.000 miles of pipeline carry natu ral gas. Attempts to fu lly exploit Afghanistan’s petroleum reserves or take advantage of its unique geogr aphical location as a crossroads to markets in Europe and South Asia have been h ampered by continual civil strife. 2.S.000 miles of pipeline carries oil and petro leum products across the U. Indonesia Petro leum. Other attacks have been repea tedly waged by insurgents against oil and gas pipelines in Turkey. The threat of terrorism has caused pipeline operators in the industrialized nations to tak e steps to prevent terrorists from harming petroleum infrastructure.

” Admiral William J. and the movement of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) are taking place. Africa. The amount of shipping is likely to continue to grow as globalizing nations become increasingly interdependent. 10 in the Malacca Straits. Fallon United States Navy Comman der. . oil--and i ncreasingly. energy supplies can not be as sured unless similar security measures are applied within nations exporting petr oleum to the U.g. the vast oceans and crowded littoral waters present a dichotomy of essential personal and economic sustenance on the one hand.S. such as the Strait of Gibral tar. During the first nine months of 2005. potent ially causing environmental damage of monumental proportions. increasing security at terminals and key pumping stations.S. between Spain and Morocco. the Middle East. U. and adding to patr ols along the thousands of miles of pipes71. Pipeline Infrastructure Protection to Enhance Security Act 2002 require s every pipeline operator to now develop and implement a terrorism security prog ram approved by the U. Much of the world’s petroleum exports must pass through narrow straits. for approximately 90% of glo bal trade is facilitated by maritime shipping. Secretary of Transportation70. and L atin America)72. T he biggest immediate threat is terrorist attacks on petroleum shipping. between the Islands of Sumatra. however. piracy. thus making ships extremely vulnerable to terrorist activities.S. the Gulf of Aden. between Yemen and Somalia. the very real security challenge of immense areas of ungoverned or weakly controlled space. (e. smuggling . Indonesia and Malaysia b efore reaching its final destination. and on the other. there were 61 pi rate attacks reported on ships in Indonesia.. pipeline companies are putting people into previously unmanned facilitie s. The global maritime commons have become a growing safety and se curity concern. Measures such as this have made pla ces in North America and Europe more secure. since most U. Three Saudi Arabia terminals and storage facilities account for approximately 18 percent of the world’s daily oil consumpti on.S. The loss of any one of these sites alone would have a dramatic effect on the supply and price of oil. For both dimensions of the challenge.The U. “On today’s globalized planet. This is of particular concern. As a result. During this same period. 15 fired upon.S. and 13 i n Nigerian waters73. and 256 crewmembers taken hostage. The 600 mile-long Persian Gulf and its coastal areas are t he largest single source of crude oil. ma ritime security is essential.S. territorial disputes among Gulf countrie s and chokepoints (like the Strait of Hormuz leading out of the Gulf) are suscep tible to attacks74. the Former Soviet Union. Millions of barrels of oil are transported by oil tankers each and every day—the fuel that fuels economies is extremely vulnerable to high-jacking or ship sinking. Pacific Command Remarks at 4th Annual Shangri La Dialogue “Enhancing Mar itime Security Cooperation”-5 June 2005 Increasingly. 141 ships were boarded. and the Strait of Malacca. 11 hijack ed. Additionally. natural gas--come from overseas. U. terrorism.

Naval forces are being utilized to protect foreign oil shipments . oil will remain the most viable energy s ource to sustain industrialized nations’ economies and stimulate the growth of eme rging economies. The U. Oil production has shifted from the deve loped to the developing world and has left corruption and turmoil in its wake vi rtually wherever it has been discovered in the developing world78. Navy’s Seventh Fleet is increas ingly doing similar operations in the south pacific region—and the Strait of Malac ca. Coast Guard has increased patrols of the region and has conducted training. The Navy’s Fifth Fleet. coupled with the depletion of petroleum resources.000 ship voluntary maritime global network of national. will continue to put demand-side pressure on oil that increasingly outpaces the petroleum indu stry’s ability to meet demand. Rapid spread of ideology through the inte rnet and the unrestricted flow of immediate communications. Cape Verde. dollars in Gwador port in Pakistan and agreed in pri nciple to fund a modernization and widening of the Karakoran highway.” His strategic vision calls for a 1. This growing demand. proliferation of weapons of mass destruct ion. Expansion of interdependent world markets and economies on a truly global scale.S. They include: 1. Th e increasing frequency of conflict. The U. China has invested 1 billion U. and Equatorial Guinea77. Concerns over Pakistan’s ability to secure the pipeline from terrorist attacks are holding up the project’s construction75.S. is spending more time patrolling t he Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.China’s concern over its reliance on the Strait of Malacca for Middle East oil imp orts is strategically too risky. Admiral Mullen. but the new one must recognize that the economic tide of all nations rises. smugglers and pirates.S. Looking for alternative shipping routes. It has been e xploited in one way or . terrorists. It would run from Pakistan’s Balo chistan province to China. Benin. will intensify competition for oil and magnify the economic consequences of disruptions to supply. CONCLUSIONS For the foreseeable future. Industrializing nations. He suggests that the Navy must red efine Sea Power and answer questions concerning what a new Maritime Strategy mus t do. international. not when the seas are controlled by one. drug traffickers. and number of nations h arboring terrorists throughout Africa has led to the office of U.S. An increasing number of U. “The old Ma ritime Strategy focused on sea control. but rather when they are made safe and free for all. based out of Bahrain. and what the new strategy will encompass. and p rivate-industry ships tied collectively together to police and secure the mariti me domain. intelligence sharing and public relations exercises with numerous states includ ing Sao Tome and Principe. The western African littoral is also an area now patrolled in conjunction wi th several nations76. Developmen t of a natural gas pipeline is being considered. humanitarian crises. Ghana. Secretary of Defense/ military leadership to establish another military unified command encompassing A frica and its littoral. Chief of Naval Operations. suggests that there are three effects of globalization that are creating the need for a new m aritime strategy. 2. what its elements are. 3.S. led by China and India. Empowerment of a new generation of enemies.

Russia and Iran) that desire to reduce global oil production. insurgents. Collusio n between global terrorists is likely in the foreseeable future. Fut ure successful disruptions to the flow of petroleum will likely have an exponent ially adverse effect on the price of oil and the global economy. and service providers faster than economies can retrain and reemploy them). Oil exporters such as Russia and Ir an will continue to adopt tit-for-tat strategies in response to U. to provide some means of oil infrastructure security assistance to nations exporting oil t o the U. particularly am ong newly industrializing nations.S.S. they should benefit from cheaper oil pr ices as demand pressure eases due to consumption decreases among highly industri alized nations. All nations need to become significantly more efficient users of oil.another by host governments. Nations will increasingly sell their oil to those nat ions willing to provide foreign aid and/or oil infrastructure security assistanc e. terrorists. As substitutes are developed. must be implemented in an orderly fashion so as not be too economically disruptive (e. Until then. Growing competition for oil will necessitate the need for the U. while supplying others. displacing workers. Wealth generated by oil rich Middle East coun tries will likely continue to flow into terrorist organizations and organization s promoting radical Islam. foreign energy policy will continue to gro w in order to meet the challenge posed by the contemporary environment.S. Newly industrializing nations and developing nations s hould follow suit over time. As such.S.g. and find su bstitutes for petroleum based products such as plastics. global terrorist groups and regional/loc al insurgencies—in advancing their agenda--continue to successfully target it. highly industrialized nations should be the first to wean themselves from oil.S. consuming nations. and other oil importing nations need to aggressively pu rsue alternative energy sources while promoting more efficient use of oil. The use of alte rnatives to oil. Natio ns should collectively fund and research alternative energy sources. In spite of increased but varying degrees of security measures taken by natio ns to protect petroleum infrastructure. particularly for energy use. a nd its allies. The militarization of U. terrorists may find useful and powerful allies among nation-states (such as Venezuela. Oil importing nations will increasingly face ethical dilemmas as they attempt to quench their thirst for oil.S. manu facturers. policy in t he Middle East80. Network connect ions can easily be developed and open source coordination and collaboration woul d certainly follow. involvement in Mid dle East conflicts. more anti-American sentiment. RECOMMENDATIONS The U. Additionally. Terrorist organizations such as Al-Qaeda will l ikely target the oil infrastructure of those nations exporting oil to the U. The intent should be to develop alternatives advantageous to all oil consuming nations. and a deepening rift between t he West and the Islamic world79.S. or crimi nal organizations. This will likely mean further U. and conduct business with corru pt and/or impoverished nations that do not take care of the needs of their peopl e. ..S. as well as selectively withhold the sale of oil from nati ons such as the U. the control over the price of oil will increasingly be i n the hands of terrorists.

S. further providing a note of caution a nd deterrence through a maritime crisis response capacity. However. In the short run. the U. an opportunity to work maritime security issues in cooperation with other nations. divide and defeat national interests. could provide security assistance to nations struggl ing to combat illicit activities that disrupt the flow of oil. but rather to each nation s economic benefit. In fact. Until abusive and self-serving governm ents have no means to financially support their regimes. It would also give th e U. Collective int erest also means collective security and military cooperation to protect the flo w of oil for the betterment of both producing nations and consuming nations. Maritime presence coupled with surve illance equipment. Nations individually seeking to secure self-interests in today’s global environment will likely do so at the de triment of others. A nation’s dependence on imported oil should not come at the expense of the people whose na tion is exporting oil. India will have the third largest Navy in the world within the next 10 years. A greater forward maritime presence woul d provide a stabilizing presence to nations struggling to combat those who targe t petroleum production and infrastructure. Governments who use oil revenues to the detriment of their citizens should be identified an d held accountable through United Nations-sanctioned criteria and enforcement me chanisms that are honored by all nations. and a significant p ortion of the American public--not to mention the human and financial costs asso ciated with war.S. execut ed by a coalition of the able and willing. The failur e to do so. s tability.S. potentially leading them into conflicts with other nations th at are disruptive to global commerce and international relations. the mere perception alone would fuel resentment toward the U. most of OPEC). and surveillance equipment.S. and sharing intelligence as well as intelligence. Any thing short of collective security plays into the hands of insurgents and intern ational terrorists who seek to alienate. Nations led by t he U. all o f this will mean that a growing number of U.   .. refineries and tanker routes. The most legitimate and com prehensive collective approach would be through a United Nations mandate. China and India should be seeking to secure their collective interests vice competing amongst themselves for oil sources. political instability. military will be needed to protec t overseas oil fields. intelligence sharing and technical assistance would go a long way toward protecting the transport of oil to consuming nations. pipelines. for oil exporting develo ping countries whose primary export is oil (indeed. by its adversaries. Finally. training o f host country personnel. through an enhanced Theater Security Cooperat ion (TSC) program. and unimpeded flow of oil. Both China and India have growing interests in promoting regional security. reco nnaissance. other petroleum importing nations. p articularly those of western industrialized nations. they will continue to e xist at the expense of the people they govern. and mil itary conflict requiring international intervention. will likely lead to economic turmoil. should not get directly involved in nor condone a war over oil. Viable support op tions are a combination of civilian and military security assistance. Such as in the case of Iraq.S. the internati onal community must work with these nations to diversify their respective econom ies in order to protect their economic well-being for life after oil. particularly those emerging regional hegemonies such as China and Indi a. Sound governance amongst fragile oil exporting states must be collectively addressed by the United Nations.S.The U.

globalpolicy. Josef Hebert.globalpolicy. “Blood Oil and Gold”. http://www.. 2006). “How to Avoid Oil Wars. 23 Ibid. 4 (February 8.cfm. 40 Ridley. Economy”. Bulletin of th e Atomic Scientists.S. 3-14.Paul Roberts. p. faftertheoilcrash.sfgate. p. p . gas pi pelines and nuclear power plants could have long-term costs”. 31 David Morse.globalpolicy. “Overview of U. 2 (February 3. “Some interesting oil industry statistics”.S. 2 006). http://www. 7 Matthew R. 4. 26 Chip Cummins.o rg. 3 Dick Gibson. 1 (February 25. 6 Meyer. 4 James Hamilton. 2002) 21 Ridley. 10 Institute for the Analysis of Global Security. 1. 7. 16 Ibid. p. 32 Bajpaee. Washington Post. 22 Ridley. http://www. “As thr eats To Oil Supply Grow. m/cgi-bin/article.ict. “Sino-U. 30 Bajpaee. the World Oil Market and the U. 9 Alfred J. 11 Ridley.. “Life After the Oil Crash”. 41 H. 2005). 2. Cavallo. 4. “China and the Final War for Resources”. 160August 2005).net/. 36 Ibid. “Depletion & U..asp. 27 Ridley. 2 (No. 28 Chietigi Bajpaee. “How to Avoid Oil Wars.. Wall Street Journal. MuseLetter. 1 (October 7. p. 1 (September 18. http://www. 3. p. Uppsala. Analys is Paper #7 (October 24.. 2005).S. 34 Ibid. seek. and Econo mic Collapse”. MuseLetter. 14 Ibid. 1 (February 2006). p. 1 (January 6.2. p. 1. Sweden. 7. 12 Bill Ridley.htm. A General Says U. “The Risk of Terrorism Against Oil and Gas Pipelines in Central Asia”. 38 Roberts. 5. 2004). 6.S. 18 (May/June 2005).4. 2-3 (2006). 10 (May 23. “New Oil Projects Cannot Meet Worl d Needs This Decade”. “China’s Demand for Ene rgy is Shaping Power Structures Around the World”. Terro rism. “The Future of Oil”. Isn’t Ready”. 2001). 2.DTL. Petroleum Trade”. 1-2 (2002). /security/issues/sudan. Gibson 25 Ridley. 2004). 2005). Simmons & Company Interna tional.160 (August 2005). http://www.iags. 2002).oilcrisis. 15 Roberts. 33 Ibid. p. Energy Competi tion in Africa”. p. 4. p. 2001). 17 Richard Heinberg. “The War on Terr orism. 1 (August 18. p. p. p. 39 Ibid . “War of the Future”. p. 1-19. p. “Increased security on oil. 13 Gibson. (June Energy Policy”.news. 29 Roberts.5. 18 George Perry. 1 (D ecember 19. p. p. http://www.. 8 Bill Ridley. p. 15 (January 2006). urity/natres/generaldebate.. 20 Ely Karmon.. No. 2 1 . 5 Jim Meyer. 37 Adam Wolfe. Int ernational Workshop on Oil Depletion. “The Undeclared Oil War”. Energy Inf ormation Administration. 2. The Brookings Institute. http://www. p. 7-8. 19 Richard Heinberg. 24 Gibson. Monthly Energy Review. 17 (2006). Terrorism. and Economic Collapse”. “Oil:Caveat Empty”. 35 Ibid. Energy Bulle tin. http://www.

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