Dow Theory The ideas of Charles Dow, the first editor of the Wall Street Journal, form the

basis of technical analysis today. Dow created the Industrial Average, of top blue chip stocks, and a second average of top railroad stocks (now the Transport Average). He believed that the behavior of the averages reflected the hopes and fears of the entire market. The behavior patterns that he observed apply to markets throughout the world. Dow Theory Three Movements Markets fluctuate in more than one time frame at the same time: Nothing is more certain than that the market has three well defined movements which fit into each other.

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The first is the daily variation due to local causes and the balance of buying and selling at that particular time (Ripple). The secondary movement covers a period ranging from days to weeks, averaging probably between six to eight weeks (Wave). The third move is the great swing covering anything from months to years, averaging between 6 to 48 months. (Tide).

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Bull markets are broad upward movements of the market that may last several years, interrupted by secondary reactions. Bear markets are long declines interrupted by secondary rallies. These movements are referred to as the primary trend. Secondary movements normally retrace from one third to two thirds of the primary trend since the previous secondary movement. Daily fluctuations are important for short-term trading, but are unimportant in analysis of broad market movements.

Various cycles have subsequently been identified within these broad categories. Dow Theory Primary Movements have Three Phases Look out for these general conditions in the market: Bull markets

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Bull markets commence with reviving confidence as business conditions improve. Prices rise as the market responds to improved earnings Rampant speculation dominates the market and price advances are based on hopes and expectations rather than actual results.

Bear markets

  

Bear markets start with abandonment of the hopes and expectations that sustained inflated prices. Prices decline in response to disappointing earnings. Distress selling follows as speculators attempt to close out their positions and securities are sold without regard to their true value.

Ranging Markets

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A secondary reaction may take the form of a ‘line’ which may endure for several weeks. Price fluctuates within a narrow range of about five per cent.

Breakouts from a range can occur in either direction.

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Advances above the upper limit of the line signal accumulation and higher prices; Declines below the lower limit indicate distribution and lower prices;

. Dow Theory Trends Bull Trends A bull trend is identified by a series of rallies where each rally exceeds the highest point of the previous rally. Successive higher highs and higher lows. between rallies. Volume is used to confirm price breakouts. The start of an up trend is signaled when price makes a higher low (trough). The end is signaled by a lower high (peak). followed by a rally above the previous high (peak): Start = higher Low + break above previous High. The decline. followed by a decline below the previous low (trough): End = lower High + break below previous Low. ends above the lowest point of the previous decline.

What if the series of lower Highs and lower Lows is first broken by a higher . Bear Trends Each successive rally fails to penetrate the high point of the previous rally. Each decline terminates at a lower point than the preceding decline. The end of a bear trend is identical to the start of a bull trend. Successive lower highs and lower lows. A bear trend starts at the end of a bull trend: when a rally ends with a lower peak and then retreats below the previous low.see Large Corrections.What if the series of higher Highs and higher Lows is first broken by a lower Low? There are two possible interpretations .

A bull trend ends when price declines below the previous low. .High? This is a gray area . Some purists argue that a trend ends if the sequence of higher highs and higher lows is broken.see Large Corrections. Others argue that a bear trend has not started until there is a lower High and Low nor has a bull trend started until there is a higher Low and High. A bear trend starts at the end of a bull trend (and vice versa). Dow Theory Large Corrections A large correction occurs when price falls below the previous low (during a bull trend) or where price rises above the previous high (in a bear trend). For practical purposes: Only accept large corrections as trend changes in the primary trend:    A bull trend starts when price rallies above the previous high.

Thus Elliott was able to analyze markets in greater depth. were influenced by these identifiable series of waves. These rules. coupled with the Fibonacci relationships between the waves. look like the big piece. Inspired by the Dow Theory and by observations found throughout nature. but Elliott discovered the fractal nature of market action. smaller patterns can be identified within bigger patterns. In this sense. Elliott Waves are like a piece of broccoli. does. though. in the direction of the trend.). expect five waves. b. Very simply. where the smaller piece. including human behavior and harmony in nature." These patterns can be seen in long-term as well as in short-term charts. futures. commodities. There have been many theories about the origin and the meaning of the patterns that Elliott discovered. Elliott based part his work on the Dow Theory. Ralph Nelson Elliott found that the markets exhibited certain repeated patterns. if broken off from the bigger piece. c. Any corrections against the trend are in three waves. as applied to technical analysis of the markets (stocks. In fact.Elliott Waves Theory Basics About Elliott Waves Theory Basics The Elliott Wave Theory is named after Ralph Nelson Elliott. His primary research was with stock market data for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Definition of Elliott Waves In the 1930s. Elliott believed that all of man's activities. Elliott concluded that the movement of the stock market could be predicted by observing and identifying a repetitive pattern of waves. not just the stock market. etc. Ideally. Three wave corrections are lettered as "a. in fact. offers the trader a level of anticipation and/or prediction when searching for and identifying trading opportunities with solid reward/risk ratios. can be very useful regardless of their . This information (about smaller patterns fitting into bigger patterns). This research identified patterns or waves that recur in the markets. which also defines price movement in terms of waves. identifying the specific characteristics of wave patterns and making detailed market predictions based on the patterns he had identified.

especially for the beginner. Some examples are shown to the right and below. they sell the market on Wave 2. The whole theory of Elliott Wave can be classified into two parts: • Impulse patterns • Corrective patterns Elliott Wave Basics — Impulse Patterns The impulse pattern consists of five waves. Approximately 60 percent of these techniques are clear and easy to use. there are a lot of stops above the top of Wave 1. Wave 2 will finally end without making new lows and the market will start to turn around for another rally.The first wave is usually a weak rally with only a small percentage of the traders participating. When the analysis is not clear. The other 40 are difficult to identify. The sell-off in Wave 2 is very vicious. The five waves can be in either direction. At this time. and it finally makes it to the top of the previous rally (the top of Wave 1). why not find another market conforming to an Elliott Wave pattern that is easier to identify? From years of fighting this battle. The initial stages of the Wave 3 rally are slow. up or down.meaning and origin. we have come up with the following practical approach to using Elliott Wave principles in trading. . The practical and conservative approach is to use the 60 percent that are clear. Once Wave 1 is over. Simplifying Elliott Wave Analysis Elliott Wave analysis is a collection of complex techniques.

many stops are placed above the top of Wave 1. Therefore. gaps are left open. For their analysis to be correct. the Wave 3 rally has caught the attention of traders. the market should not take the top of the previous rally. .Traders are not convinced of the upward trend and are using this rally to add more shorts. After taking the stops out. Gaps are a good indication of a Wave 3 in progress. the stops are taken out. As soon as the Wave 1 high is exceeded. Depending on the number of stops. The Wave 3 rally picks up steam and takes the top of Wave 1.

The traders who were stopped out (after being upset for a while) decide the trend is up. all the buying frenzy dies down. They have a good trade and start to protect profits. Traders who were long from the lows decide to take profits. While profit-taking is in progress. They consider this profit-taking decline an excellent place to buy in and get even. This is the time when the majority of the traders have decided that the trend is up. and they decide to buy into the rally. the majority of traders are still convinced the trend is up. Profit taking now begins to set in.This causes a pullback in the prices that is called Wave 4. Wave 3 comes to a halt. All this sudden interest fuels the Wave 3 rally. They might even decide to add positions. or they have been on the sideline. Wave 2 was a vicious sell-off.The next sequence of events are as follows: Traders who were initially long from the bottom finally have something to cheer about. Wave 4 is an orderly profit-taking decline. . They were either late in getting in on this rally. Finally.

Corrective patterns can be grouped into two different categories: • Simple Correction (Zig-Zag) • Complex Corrections (Flat. Triangle) . The Wave 5 advance is caused by a small group of traders. An impulse pattern is always followed by a corrective pattern.On the end of Wave 4. the market tops out and enters a new phase. Although the prices make a new high above the top of Wave 3. Most Elliott traders make money during an impulse pattern and then lose it back during the corrective phase. Irregular. Elliott Wave Basics — Corrective Patterns Corrections are very hard to master. corrective patterns consist of 3 waves. An impulse pattern consists of five waves. With the exception of the triangle. inside the Wave 5 advance is very small when compared to the Wave 3 advance. more buying sets in and the prices start to rally again. Finally. The Wave 5 rally lacks the huge enthusiasm and strength found in the Wave 3 rally. the rate of power. when this lackluster buying interest dies out. or strength.

.Simple Correction (Zig-Zag) There is only one pattern in a simple correction. Wave A has a three-wave pattern. Thus.62 x Wave A or 2. The Wave A of a Zig-Zag correction always has a five-wave pattern. A Zig-Zag correction is a three-wave pattern where the Wave B does not retrace more than 75 percent of Wave A. Fibonacci Ratios inside a Zig-Zag Correction Wave B Usually 50% of Wave A Should not exceed 75% of Wave A Wave C either 1 x Wave A or 1.62 x Wave A A simple correction is commonly called a Zig-Zag correction. In the other two types of corrections (Flat and Irregular). if you can identify a five-wave pattern inside Wave A of any correction. you can then expect the correction to turn out as a Zig-Zag formation. Wave C will make new lows below the end of Wave A. This pattern is called a Zig-Zag correction.

. the market drops one last time in Wave C to the previous Wave A low. Irregular. the length of each wave is identical. Triangle) The complex correction group consists of 3 patterns: • Flat • Irregular • Triangle Flat Correction In a Flat correction.Complex Corrections (Flat. After a five-wave impulse pattern. Finally. It then rallies in a Wave B to the previous high. the market drops in Wave A.

Irregular Correction In this type of correction. . or below it. Wave B makes a new high. The final Wave C may drop to the beginning of Wave A.

62 x Wave A or 2. C. It is called the Triangle pattern.25 x Wave A Wave C = either 1.62 x Wave A Triangle Correction In addition to the three-wave correction patterns. D and E in sequence.Fibonacci Ratios in an Irregular Wave Wave B = either 1. there is another pattern that appears time and time again. Triangles.15 x Wave A or 1. Unlike other triangle studies. B. most commonly . by far. the Elliott Wave Triangle approach designates five sub-waves of a triangle as A.

expect Wave Four to be a complex correction. elation. hysteria. High. One must study the pattern very carefully prior to taking action. . the market thrusts out of the triangle in the same direction as Wave 3. Japanese Candlestick Charting Technical Analysis…a Brief Background Technical analysis is simply the study of prices as reflected on price charts. Triangles are very tricky and confusing. they also represent human emotion and the pervasive mass psychology and mood of the moment. a function of supply and demand. etc. on a moment to moment basis. Technical analysis assumes that current prices should represent all known information about the markets. Alteration Rule If Wave Two is a simple correction. The Open is represented by a small dash to the left of the bar. A market "technician" attempts to disregard the emotional component of trading by making his decisions based upon chart formations. The total vertical length/height of the bar represents the entire trading range for the period. Usually four elements make up a bar chart.occur as fourth waves. not necessarily facts. and the bottom of the bar represents the lowest price of the period. Below is a standard bar chart example. from 1 minute to 1 month. expect Wave Four to be a simple correction. Standard bar charts are commonly used to convey price activity into an easily readable chart. in the end. Prices tend to shoot out of the triangle formation in a swift thrust. panic. greed. and Close for the trading session/time period. However. One can sometimes see a triangle as the Wave B of a three-wave correction. human emotions…fear. Markets may move based upon people’s expectations. also dramatically effect prices. the market thrusts out of the triangle in the same direction as the Wave A. When triangles occur in the fourth wave. Low. When triangles occur in Wave Bs. A price bar can represent any time frame the user wishes. assuming that prices reflect both facts and emotion. Prices not only reflect intrinsic facts. the Open. and the Close for the session is a small dash to the right of the bar. Prices are. The top of the bar represents the highest price of the period. If Wave Two is a complex correction.

there are four elements necessary to construct a candlestick chart. but after going through the following candlestick chart explanations and examples. candlestick formations developed names such as "counter attack lines" and the "advancing three soldiers". Due in part to the military environment of the Japanese feudal system during this era. He is said to have executed over 100 consecutive winning trades! The candlesticks themselves and the formations they shape were give colorful names by the Japanese traders. In fact. LOW and CLOSING price for a given time period. you will surely see value in the different perspective candlesticks bring to the table.Candlestick Charts Explained You may be asking yourself. so too are they important elements when in the midst of trading battle. "If I can already use bar charts to view prices. the OPEN. and convey the price information in a quicker. What is the History of Candlestick Charts? Candlestick charts are on record as being the oldest type of charts used for price prediction. during this era in Japan. then why do I need another type of chart?" The answer to this question may not seem obvious. HIGH. strategy. They date back to the 1700's. Munehisa Homma become a legendary rice trader and gained a huge fortune using candlestick analysis. As in a standard bar chart. easier manner. and psychology are important in battle. What do Candlesticks Look Like? Candlestick charts are much more visually appealing than a standard two-dimensional bar chart. Just as skill. when they were used for predicting rice prices. Below are examples of candlesticks and a definition for each candlestick component: . they are much more visually appealing. In my opinion.

that means the close was higher than the open (normally bullish). . and represents the range between the open and closing prices. A black or filled-in body represents that the close during that time period was lower than the open. Notice how the candlestick chart appears 3-dimensional. The thin vertical line above and/or below the real body is called the upper/lower shadow. representing the high/low price extremes for the period. The body of the candlestick is called the real body. as price data almost jumps out at you.   Bar Compared to Candlestick Charts Below is an example of the same price data conveyed in a standard bar chart and a candlestick chart. (normally considered bearish) and when the body is open or white.

notice how much easier it is with candlesticks to determine if the closing price was higher or lower than the opening price. It is important to note that Japanese candlestick analysts traditionally view the open and closing prices as the most critical of the day. while a long open. dark.when the close is lower than the open. . It is important to realize that many formations occur within the context of prior candlesticks.( 3a ) ( 3b ) The long.  The Black Candlestick -. not formations. At a glance. What follows is merely a definition of terms. filled-in real bodies represent a weak (bearish) close ( 3a ). Common Candlestick Terminology The following is a list of some individual candlestick terms. lightcolored real body represents a strong (bullish) close ( 3b ).

 The Shaven Head -.a candlestick with no lower shadow.a candlestick with no upper shadow.  The Shaven Bottom -.when the close is higher than the open. The White Candlestick -. .

candlesticks with small real bodies.have no real body. and when appearing within a sideways choppy market. so too can candlestick formations be looked upon for the same purpose. Spinning Tops -. They can be either white or black. but instead have a horizontal line. This represents when the Open and Close are the same or very close. The length of the shadow can vary. A reversal does not always mean that the current uptrend/downtrend will reverse direction. and technical indicators for reversal signals. they represent equilibrium between the bulls and the bears. but merely . Candlestick Reversal Patterns Just as many traders look to bar charts for double tops and bottoms.  Doji Lines -. head-and-shoulders.

"engulfs" the prior day's real body. The shadows of the prior candlestick do not need to be engulfed.that the current direction may end.  Engulfing Patterns -. In fact. but the key is that this candlestick must occur within the context of a downtrend to be considered a hammer. The market should be in a definable trend. The market may then decide to drift sideways.Bullish -. and there should be no or very little upper shadow. identical candlesticks may have different meanings depending on where they occur within the context of prior trends and formations. real bodytotally covers.  Hanging Man -. not chopping around sideways. . but appears within the context of an uptrend.identical in appearance to the hammer. Candlestick reversal patterns must be viewed within the context of prior activity to be effective. The body may be either black or white. The market may be "hammering" out a bottom. The shadow should be at least twice the length of the real body.a candlestick with a long lower shadow and small real body.when a white.  Hammer -.

. real body totally covers. Occurs within a downtrend. real body. real body. The first candlestick having a black.  Dark-Cloud Cover(bearish) -.a top reversal formation where the first day of the pattern consists of a strongwhite. The market should be in a definable trend. and the second has a long. but the close is at or near the low of the day.  Piercing Pattern (bullish) -. "engulfs" the prior day's real body. not chopping around sideways. Bearish -. The shadows of the prior candlestick do not need to be engulfed. and well into the prior white.when a black.opposite of the dark-cloud cover. real body. The second day's price opens above the top of the upper shadow of the prior candlestick.

Stars are the equivalent of gaps on standard bar charts. The white day opens sharply lower. and they can occur at either tops or bottoms. prices close above the 50% point of the prior day's black real body. The real body of the star should not overlap the prior real body. under the low of the prior black day.white. real body. Then. The color of the star is not too important. Stars These candlestick formations consist of a small real body that gaps away from the real body preceding it. .

which gaps (opens).When a doji gaps above a real body in an uptrend. that particular doji is called a doji star. The formation is comprised of 3 candlesticks. . the first being long and white. The first candlestick is a tall black real body followed by the second.  Evening Star -. The third candlestick is a white real body that moves well into the first period's black real body. Three candlesticks compose the evening star. or gaps under a real body in a falling market.  Doji Stars -. followed by the third. This is similar to an island pattern on standard bar charts.this is a bullish bottom reversal pattern. which has a black real body that moves sharply into the first white candlestick. a small real body. Two popular doji stars are the evening star and the morning star. lower (a star pattern). The second forms a star.a bearish top reversal pattern and counterpart to the Morning Star.Stars make up part of four separate reversal patterns: Morning Star Evening Star Doji Star Shooting Star (Inverted Hammer)  Morning Star -.

the bullishness of the doji is invalidated. white real body that closes well into the prior black real body. If the candlestick after the doji star is black and gapped lower.a doji star in an uptrend followed by a long. Evening Doji Star -. the bearishness of the doji is invalidated.  Morning Doji Star -. . black real body that closed well into the prior white real body. If the candlestick after the doji star is white and gapped higher.a doji star in a downtrend followed by a long.

Final Thoughts and Credits It is important to realize that this introduction is just that. you will have merely scratched the surface of the many patterns and variables that can go into candlestick analysis. The color of the body is not critical. Body color is not critical. an introduction to candlestick analysis. only a warning. with a long upper shadow. may be a turning signal.a small real body near the lower end of the trading range. but does look like a shooting star. No attempt was made to provide a thorough analysis of each and every .  Inverted Hammer-. When occurring within a downtrend.not really a star. After having read this. Shooting Star -. Not usually considered a major reversal sign.

bulls and buying. buyers become more inclined to buy and sellers become less inclined to sell. Nison. it is highly recommended that you read the book that is referred to below. Mr. For a more complete overview of candlestick analysis. . we need as many trading tools in our arsenal. prices move sideways as bulls and bears slug it out for control. Steve Nison. As traders. it is only effective when put into practice properly. bears and selling. completely explains candlesticks and their formations. it often becomes a resistance level. Supply is synonymous with bearish. and a basic knowledge of candlesticks provides a trader much needed ammunition. this is because investors want to limit their losses and will sell later. By the time the price reaches the support level. the author. of course. In his book. In some cases. As demand increases. In the financial markets. sentences were taken almost verbatim. your job as the trader. many formations were left out as they cross the border into more complicated analysis.pattern. A large portion of the material in this introduction is taken from an excellent book called Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques: A Contemporary Guide to the Ancient Investment Techniques of the Far East. What is Support? Support is the price level at which demand is thought to be strong enough to prevent the price from declining further. prices advance and as supply increases. as there was no better way to say what Mr. already said. prices decline. It is highly recommended that you consider purchasing this book. no matter how advanced or ancient. Also remember that no matter what the trading tool. After a support level is penetrated. In fact. prices are driven by excessive supply (down) and demand (up). The logic dictates that as the price declines towards support and gets cheaper. but more importantly explains how to combine candlestick analysis with traditional technical analysis. it is believed that demand will overcome supply and prevent the price from falling below support. Support & Resistance Support & Resistance Support and resistance represent key junctures where the forces of supply and demand meet. Demand is synonymous with bullish. When supply and demand are equal. when prices approach the former level. This is.

the . the greater volume traded at any level. resistance is where a pullback from a decline should end. They most often manifest as horizontal price levels. support is where a pullback from a rally should end. Buyers and sellers are constantly in battle mode. The strength or weakness determines how much buying or selling interest will be required to break the level. it often falls back below the old support or resistance. In an uptrend. The length of time that a support or resistance level exists determines the strength or weakness of that level. it is believed that supply will overcome demand and prevent the price from rising above resistance. The logic dictates that as the price advances towards resistance. price tends to thrust forward sharply as the crowd notices the BREAKOUT and jumps in to buy or sell. In a downtrend.What is Resistance? Resistance is the price level at which selling is thought to be strong enough to prevent the price from rising further. When price pushes above resistance. Support and resistance are created because price has memory. When a level is penetrated but does not attract a crowd of buyers or sellers. it often becomes a support level. Resistance defines that level where sellers are too strong to allow price to rise further. Support defines that level where buyers are strong enough to keep price from falling further. Support and resistance come in all varieties and strengths. sellers become more inclined to sell and buyers become less inclined to buy. When a level of support or resistance is penetrated. Support and resistance play different roles in uptrends and downtrends. When price falls below support. Those prices where significant buyers or sellers entered the market in the past will tend to generate a similar mix of participants when price again returns to that level. By the time the price reaches the resistance level. After a resistance level is penetrated. this is because buyers who didn't buy at that price before it went up are now willing to buy at that price. it becomes a new support level. Also. The concept of SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE is essential to understanding and interpreting the markets. support and resistance define natural boundaries for rising and falling prices. This failure is known as a FALSE BREAKOUT. Just as a ball bounces when it hits the floor or drops after being thrown to the ceiling. that level becomes resistance.

A resistance breakout signals that demand (bulls) has gained the upper hand and a support break signals that supply (bears) has won the battle. Being aware of the support and resistant levels of stocks and indices can greatly enhance analysis and forecasting abilities. Levels in longer time frames are stronger than those in shorter time frames.stronger that level will be. it can serve as an alert to be extra vigilant in looking for signs of increased buying pressure and a potential reversal. How can Support & Resistant Levels help you make profitable trading decisions? Identification of key support and resistance levels is an essential ingredient to successful and profitable trading. If a security is approaching a resistance level. . If a support or resistance level is broken. it signals that the relationship between supply and demand has changed. If a security is approaching an important support level. it can act as an alert to look for signs of increased selling pressure and potential reversal. Support and resistance exist in all time frames and all markets.

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