3/20/2011

Calculating poker probabilities with a s…
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Calculating poker probabilities with a simple Excel spreadsheet
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Poker is a game of probabilities. Every time when you put money into the pot, you have to ask yourself: what are my odds to scoop the pot? How much to call this bet? How much to bet so that my opponent can not profitably call with his draw? A lot of questions that are posted on poker forums are of the type: what is the chance THIS or THAT happens? Here are a couple of examples: 1) I have KK and my opponent calls my raise with an Ace. What is the chance that he pairs his ace on the flop? 2) I have a couple of small suited cards. What is the chance that exactly three cards of that suit appear on the board (and not four, because that would mean trouble). 3) I have two unpaired cards. What is the chance that I flop two pair or trips? 4) My opponent raises and could have any tw o cards doing that. I have a small pair, what is the chance that I flop a set? 5) My opponent raises and I know he only does that w ith AA/KK/QQ or AK. I have a small pair, what is the chance I flop a set? 6) I have QJ on a T62 flop. What is the chance I make a straight by the river? For those among you w ith little affinity for mathematics, these questions could be above your head. So I´m going to provide you with a simple tool that can make these calculations for you. Create an Excel spreadsheet like this: In cell H2: the number of unknow n cards remaining in the deck, In cell H3: the number of outs remaining in the deck, In cell H4: the number of cards to draw , In cell H5: the number of outs you want to draw in those cards, In cell H6: the probability that this happens. Paste into this cell the following formula: =FACT(H2-H4)*FACT(H3)*FACT(H2H3)*FACT(H4)/FACT(H2)/FACT(H3-H5)/FACT(H2-H3H4+H5)/FACT(H5)/FACT(H4-H5) Of course you can use other cells in the spreadsheet to store the data, but make sure you adjust the formula accordingly. Now lets tackle the problems. 1) I have KK and my opponent has Ax, so there are 48 cards remaining in the deck (H2=48). Three of these are aces (H3=3), we w ill draw three cards (the flop, H4=3) and we want to know the chance that one ace appears (H5=1). In H6 the probability appears: 0.1717 or 17.17%. 2) 50 cards remain in the deck (H2=50), 11 are of that suit (H3=11), draw 5 cards (H4=5) and draw exactly three of that suit (H5=3). The chance is 5.77% 3) We´re getting the hang of it. H2=50, H3=6, H4=3 and H5=2. The chance is 3.37%. This is a pretty important number for those among you that call raises w ith stuff like suited connectors. At least 1 in 30 times the flop will make you happy (add to this the flops that give you straights/flushes or a good draw).

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How do w e handle this problem? The correct way is to assume that his hole cards are still in the deck. we have an open ender (8 outs) if the turn is a 9 or K or a gutshot (4 outs) if the turn is an 8 or A.3/20/2011 Calculating poker probabilities with a s… 4) I have a small pair and my opponent raises ATC. On average we have 6 outs. so it has to be a 8.44%. I hope the tool will prove useful for your post-bead-beat analysis! Share: Digg Facebook Tw itter Google E-mail 0 tw eet Comments (4) Login to Add a Comment » This should be a welcome help for many players who are in the process of mastering this game. Calculate the chance with H2=47. H2=48.804 or (80. H5=1. I think the easiest thing to get going is to download the example spreadsheet. concise stuff. Well written. We know the opponent has a big hand and all our outs remain in the deck. so now w e have a straight draw .51%. This is very great.04% (or 6/46).4%) pokersavvy. The rest is easy: H3=2. 48 cards remain in the deck. the chance to flop a set will go dow n significantly. You could have calculated this yourself w ithout the spreadsheet (=16/47). The chance is 34. Combine the turn and river probabilities: multiply 16/47 with 6/46 and you have the answer for your backdoor straight draw: 4. 9. 2010 (login to reply) Login or register to post comments Somethings wrong here. H4=3. combined with your ability of using it correctly. 2007 (login to reply) Login or register to post comments This looks really cool. Whether he has AA/KK/QQ or AK doesn´t matter for the chance to flop our set. what do we do with the river? Well. due to your knowledge of your opponents play. H3=6. H4=3 and H5=1. The probability is 13. hey? These w ere a couple of examples that show the potency of the spreadsheet. He could have the same hand as me and the chance to flop a set would be zero! If he has one of that card.97%. H4=1. H5=1. H3=2. H2=46. OK.808 or (80. 5) This is slightly different. 6) This one is pretty hard. H3=16. H5=1. That is 16 outs. but there are 50 unknown cards and we have to fill in H2=50. H4=1.8%) River Then the Number of unseen cards = (46) minus number of outs = ( which totals to (37) then do 37/46 to = 0.04%. Rating: by KingCur on November 27. The chance is 11. I'll assume you know very little about Excel. K or A. Better than you think. but doable with a little logic. First off. excel development Rating: by ExcelT8 on July 11. The chance is 11. I tried to put in the following which would replicate having a four flush by the flop and catching the 5 card flush on either the turn OR the river of which the sum/formula is: Turn Number of unseen cards = (47) minus number of outs = (9) which totals to (38) then do 38/47 to = 0. The chance goes up a little.com/…/calculating-poker-p… 2/3 . The turn has to give us a straight draw .

47 No.. Unknown Cards .. All Rights Reserved.9%) Chance of NOT hitting your flush meaning a 35. pokersavvy.649 or (64. your calculation resulting in 35.1% Chance of hitting your flush (There or there abouts) on either the turn OR the river.64% instead of 35.1 Answer .1% includes those times when you hit your flush card on both the turn and river. Rating: by yekulrd on February 5... 2010 (login to reply) Login or register to post comments marty. any ideas whats wrong here??? As it shows 31. whereas the spreadsheet calculation requires you must only hit one of your flush cards.com/…/calculating-poker-p… 3/3 .64% I tried to work it out but cant.9 Cards to Draw .3/20/2011 Calculating poker probabilities with a s… (80. of Outs . 2011 (login to reply) Login or register to post comments More at PokerSavvy | Poker Articles | Poker Videos | expand topics Site Map | Affiliate Program © 2011 PokerSavvy.4%) Final Equation Then Times 0.808 x 0. However your formula in a spreadsheet shows the following.804 to equal = 0.1% Rating: by martynardelli on September 23.31.2 Outs Needed .

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