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RENO 1 Training Guide Part Identification: RRE1S-TG-01 ReliaSoft Corporation Worldwide Headquarters 1450 South Eastside Loop Tucson, Arizona 85710-6703, USA Sales and Information: 1.888.886.0410 ReliaSoft@ReliaSoft.com http://www.ReliaSoft.com © 2005-2009 ReliaSoft Corporation, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Notice of Rights No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by any means, for any purpose, without the express written permission of ReliaSoft Corporation, Tucson, AZ, USA. Disclaimer Information in this document is subject to change without notice and does not represent a commitment on the part of ReliaSoft Corporation. Companies, names and data used herein are fictitious unless otherwise noted. Use of the software and this document are subject to the terms and conditions set forth in the accompanying License Agreement. This software and documentation were developed at private expense; no portion was developed with government funds. Trademarks ReliaSoft and RENO are trademarks of ReliaSoft Corporation. Product names and services identified in this document are trademarks of their respective trademark holders, and are used for illustration purposes. Their use in no way conveys endorsement or other affiliation with ReliaSoft Corporation. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4

**IMPORTANT NOTE REGARDING REGIONAL SETTINGS
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Examples in this document assume that you are using the USA regional settings where the decimal point is a period (.) and the list separator is a comma (,). RENO is regionally aware (i.e. it will work with your regional settings). Therefore, if your regional settings use a different decimal definition and list separator, the way that you enter values and functions will differ from the way presented in this manual. To reproduce the examples in this document, you must adjust the inputs accordingly. For example, under USA regional settings, the function f(10.3,2.7) is some function of f with two function arguments of 10.3 and 2.7. If you are using German regional settings, this function should be entered based on the German regional decimal definition (,) and list separator (;). That is, the function would be f(10,3;2,7).

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from the Help menu.886. 1.. Rather. link in the What do you want to do? window or by selecting Open Examples Folder.. Each file contains the complete solution to the problem presented in the example.520.ReliaSoft.com RENO Training Guide 1 .0399 E-mail: Support@ReliaSoft. At any time during the training.886. The examples in this training guide are presented in files that have been shipped with the RENO application.520. visit our Web site at: http://RENO.3 Contacting ReliaSoft ReliaSoft can be reached at: ReliaSoft Corporation Worldwide Headquarters 1450 South Eastside Loop Tucson. they are designed to demonstrate how to use various features of RENO. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RENO\Examples).1 About this Training Guide This training guide is intended to provide you with many examples to demonstrate the use of RENO. Note that the examples included in this guide are not necessarily the most efficient way of accomplishing the underlying task using RENO.g.Introduction 1 1. please feel free to ask the instructor(s) any questions you might have. The Examples folder is also accessible by clicking the Open Examples Folder.com For up-to-date product information..0366 Fax: +1. AZ 85710-6703 USA Phone: +1.. 1. It begins with step-by-step examples and then proceeds into more advanced examples. These files are located in subfolders in the Examples folder in your application directory (e.2 RENO Documentation Like all of ReliaSoft's standard software products. RENO is shipped with detailed printed documentation on the product (RENO User's Guide). This training guide is intended to be a supplement to that reference.

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the Attachments feature makes it easy to keep supporting documentation and other related files together with the analysis. you can proceed to Chapter 4.2 Flexible Interface to Organize the Analysis RENO’s flexible user interface makes it easy to enter and manage the information required to perform analyses. If you are already familiar with RENO’s capabilities.3 Item Properties Table to View/Edit Project Information in a Spreadsheet The Item Properties Table allows you to view and edit the data in your project in an Excel-compatible spreadsheet format. Using the intuitive. Random Variables provide values based on a specified statistical distribution. 2. In addition. you will use the familiar and intuitive flowcharting concept to build models for the scenarios that you are trying to understand and/or quantify via simulation. financial or organizational system.1 Easy to Build Flowchart Models With RENO. 2. The optional Template feature allows you to pre-define Constructs that can be used in multiple Flowcharts to save time and ensure consistency. The software provides a full array of building blocks for these Flowcharts (called “Constructs”) to serve different functions within the model. You can also define various types of global variables (called “Definitions”) that are available throughout the project. 2. Conditional Blocks allow you to define “If/Then” statements that trigger one response if the condition is met (TRUE) and another if it is not (FALSE). RENO makes it easy for you to manage one or many Flowchart models together with the Definitions and Constructs used to build them.” It is a powerful and flexible platform for visualizing and dynamically simulating nearly any kind of physical. You can think of RENO as a graphical “stochastic event simulation tool. but with greater flexibility due to its ability to evaluate systems and scenarios that evolve over time. This makes it easy to quickly update analysis properties without having to open and save each record individually. You will employ simple point-and-click and drag-and-drop techniques to use these components to build simple or complex Flowchart models. It also allows you to export or copy/paste this information to use in reports or your own custom analyses. For example. Using the familiar flowcharting concept. This section presents a brief summary of these features.Features Summary 2 The examples in this training guide have been designed to introduce you to the features available in RENO. You may also think of RENO as a “visual spreadsheet” that allows you to graphically create and manipulate data and equations. RENO Training Guide 3 . over 140 built-in functions and a wizard to help you build your own custom graphical charts. These spreadsheets provide complete in-cell formula support. For example. Your projects can also include Excel-compatible spreadsheets for your own custom analyses. you can build systems and/or scenarios and then have the software execute the model via simulation. hierarchical "Project Explorer" approach that was introduced in ReliaSoft's BlockSim software. First Steps.

Pre-Defined Functions: A list of built-in functions supported by the software. Statistical functions such as the Weibull distribution. Equation Variables. Math and Trigonometry functions such as Sine. the total number of simulations performed (SIMS_TOTAL). This feature allows you to move through each step in the simulation of a Flowchart and watch the values as each Construct is executed. etc. Periodic Payment for an Annuity.8 Debugger Utility to Step Through Flowchart Simulations RENO includes an integrated utility to help you validate and “debug” your Flowchart models. etc. Definitions and built-in functions that you will use in the equations for your analyses. etc. Functions. functions and operands to make it easy for you to spot typing errors. Derivative. Color-Coding: As you type. The utility can also automatically remove unused Definitions from your project with the click of a button.4 Definitions Report to Manage Analysis Components The Definitions Report provides a summary of the global variables that have been defined in your project.6 Integration with Weibull++ and ALTA If ReliaSoft’s Weibull++ and/or ALTA software are installed on your computer. such as the value passed from the previous Flowchart Construct (IN). RENO automatically color-codes recognized variables.5 “Intelligent” Features to Help You Build Equations All equation-enabled windows in RENO provide “intelligent” features to help you save time and avoid errors when building equations. unmatched parentheses.2 Features Summary 2. This includes: Engineering functions such as Bessel. etc. 2. Error functions. This includes: Definitions: A list of the Constants.ReliaSoft. you can use them to define the distribution and parameters for Probabilities and Random Variables based on the distributional analysis for existing data sets. Probabilities and Random Variables defined in the project. etc. This report identifies the Flowcharts and other Definitions that reference each defined variable. the maximum value in a table (MAX_TABLE). undefined variables. Variable Preview: RENO provides a summary of the properties of each Definition that you use in your equations and allows you to view/edit the Definition’s properties with the click of a button. 2. You can also watch the progress as the software automatically performs a specified number of simulations in “debug” mode. Logical functions such as IF statements and TRUE/FALSE statements. 4 http://RENO. 2. Storage Variables. Financial functions such as Future Value. Cumulative Interest Paid. RENO provides a list of recognized variables and functions. Reserved Keywords: A list of keywords that instruct the software to insert specific information into the equation. the Chi-Squared distribution.7 More Than 100 Reserved Keywords and Built-In Functions The integrated Function Wizard provides instant access to the reserved keywords. The Parameter Experimenter is also available. Logarithm. 2. the Fisher Transformation. Integral. These include: Auto-Complete/Intelli-Sense: When you press Ctrl+Space while building an equation. etc.com . Tables.

such as scaling. you may wish to generate reliability or availability results for a range of times in order to examine the equipment’s behavior over time. the final values for all Result Storage Constructs will be displayed directly within the chart. In the Simulation Results Explorer: The Simulation Results Explorer displays the full results of the simulation in Excel-compatible spreadsheets that present the data in an organized fashion and make it easy to copy/paste or export results of interest to your reports or customized analyses. sums. you could use this feature to automatically determine the optimum amount of inventory to maximize profits or the optimum preventive maintenance (PM) interval to minimize costs. In the Plot Sheet: RENO’s integrated Plot Sheet provides a graphical display of your simulation results with the click of a button.2.9 Flexible Array of Simulation Results with Multiple Display Options 2. The results of each analysis can be displayed in the Plot Sheet. if you are analyzing potential investment strategies. colors. if desired.10 Sensitivity Analysis to Vary Constants Across Simulation Runs RENO’s Sensitivity Analysis feature allows you to vary one or two constants across simulation runs. including: During the simulation: You can configure the Simulation Console to display a specific variable of interest while the simulation is running and watch the variation as the simulation progresses. 2. This information is presented by the software in a variety of ways. etc. including averages. arrays.9 Flexible Array of Simulation Results with Multiple Display Options RENO’s simulation engine can generate a wide variety of results for your analyses. you may wish to vary the number of years that you will be investing and/or the percentage of your income that will be invested to see how different inputs will affect the final results. You can choose to display the data for any Result Storage Construct in the Flowchart and control other display options. For example. fonts. with the optimum value marked on the plot. RENO Training Guide 5 . Simply construct the Flowchart model to generate the metrics of interest to you and then perform the simulation. etc. minimum values. The utility provides both 2-dimensional and 3-dimensional plots to present analysis results in the most effective way to support decision-making. maximum values. In the Flowchart: After a Flowchart has been simulated. ending and increment values for the variable constant(s) and then RENO automatically performs the specified number of simulations under each set of conditions. Potential applications are limited only by your imagination! Simply enter the starting. 2. You also have the option to show the last values for other Constructs.11 Perform Multiple Runs to Automatically Estimate Optimum Values The Multiple Runs feature takes the sensitivity analysis capability a step further by allowing you to configure the software to automatically vary the specified constant(s) in order to determine the value that minimizes or maximizes a specified result. You can export plots as Windows metafile graphics that can be inserted into other documents and/or use the RS Draw metafile editor to annotate and customize the plot graphics. For example. Likewise.

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instead. or you can access the properties window at any time by double-clicking the Definition. Must be text. however.1 Definitions Definitions are global objects that can be called upon by any Flowchart within the project. Cannot contain spaces or any of the following characters: \ / : * ? “ < > | ‘ ~ ! @ # $ % ^ & ( ) . cannot be a number or anything that evaluates to a number. the Constant returns to its original value. The properties of each Definition can be specified in the properties window that appears when a new Definition is created. After simulation. While the values of some Definitions may change during the simulation process. once simulation has been completed. Definitions serve to store or generate values used in Flowcharts.1. Constructs are presented in detail in Section 3. Must be unique within the project. For complete information on the properties and use of Definitions and Constructs and on simulation. which are placed into Flowcharts as blocks. The values of the Constant used during simulation are available in the Simulation Results Explorer. In addition. but can be varied across runs based on your selections on the Sensitivity Analysis page of the Simulation Console.2. they are called by Constructs. such as Pi or reserved keywords. They cannot. All identifiers must meet the following requirements. or name. There are seven types of Definitions. each Definition contains only the original values that you entered in its properties window. you must use a Result Storage Block to store the value(s).1 Constants A Constant stores a fixed numerical value that can be reused. please consult the RENO User’s Guide. Constants cannot be changed during each simulation. A brief description of each is given next. 3.Basics 3 This chapter briefly covers the Definitions and Constructs used to build Flowcharts in RENO and the terminology used for simulation. be placed directly into Flowcharts. the properties of a Definition are displayed at the bottom of the Project Explorer when the Definition is selected. Each type of Definition has an identifier. If you wish to keep the value(s) of the Definition used during simulation. RENO Training Guide 7 . 3.

If you wish to keep the value(s) stored in the Storage Variable during simulation. 8 http://RENO. The expression can include numerical values. you must use a Result Storage Block to store them.2 Tables A Table stores an array of values in rows and columns. 3. The data in a Table are available for both read and write during simulation by using reserved keywords. log. 3. standard operands (+. intrinsic functions (exp.3 Basics 3. Tables can have up to 64.1.1. etc. After simulation.000 rows and 256 columns. the Storage Variable returns to its original value.1. If you wish to keep the values stored in the Table during simulation. After simulation. / ). sin.ReliaSoft.com . the Table will contain its original data. you must use a Result Storage Block to store the value(s). -.). certain reserved keywords. *.3 Storage Variables A Storage Variable stores a numerical value that is available for both read and write during simulation.4 Equation Variables An Equation Variable stores a string expression to be evaluated.

3) would return 6. Note that you must enter all required inputs for each part of the equation.2) is a reference to the cell in the first column and second row of the Definition called Table1. RENO Training Guide 9 .5 Functions A Function stores a string expression to be evaluated. 3. a reference to a Table requires inputs for the column name/number and the row number. For instance. An equation of the form Function1(1.2. Some reserved keywords also require inputs. the Function shown here finds the sum of the arguments X1. X2 and X3.3.1 Definitions references to any other Definition(s) except for Functions and references to any Spreadsheets that are named in accordance with the naming conventions for Definitions. Table1(1. For instance. References to Spreadsheets require inputs for the sheet number.1. column name/number and row number. Functions are identical to Equation Variables except that a Function can contain arguments that are passed to it during simulation.

com . based on a probability distribution. 10 http://RENO. the properties of a Construct are displayed in the Flowchart Information area when the block is selected. In other words. In addition. Each Construct is represented by a block in the Flowchart and performs a step in the model.ReliaSoft. the Probability returns F(x). 3.6 Probabilities A Probability returns the probability that a random variable is observed by x. You can customize the appearance of each block to enhance the presentation of your Flowcharts. The returned probability will always be between 0 and 1. the Random Variable returns x.1. 3. Note that the terms “Construct” and “block” are used interchangeably in this guide. A brief description of each is given next. where F(x) is the cumulative density function of the specified distribution. In order to provide the flexibility required to create Flowcharts that model scenarios as realistically as possible. there are twelve different types of Constructs. Given F(x) (the probability). given x. The properties of each Construct can be specified in the properties window that appears when a new block is created or you can access the properties window at any time by double-clicking the block.1.7 Random Variables A Random Variable is essentially the opposite of a Probability.3 Basics 3.2 Constructs RENO’s Constructs are the building blocks with which you will create Flowcharts.

3. and may have multiple outgoing paths.2 Constructs 3.2) is a reference to the cell in the first column and second row of the Definition called Table1. / ). based on the equation used in its Evaluates to input box. RENO Training Guide 11 . including the equation used to evaluate the block. certain reserved keywords. Note that you must enter all required inputs for each part of the equation. a reference to a Table requires inputs for the column name/number and the row number.2.3. sin. A Standard Block may accept up to one incoming path. The expression can include numerical values. intrinsic functions (exp. References to Spreadsheets require inputs for the sheet number. Table1(1. etc.1. Some reserved keywords also require inputs.).2. references to Definitions and references to any Spreadsheets that are named in accordance with the naming conventions for Definitions. The properties window for a Standard Block has three tabs or pages. column name/number and row number. For instance. -. *. standard operands (+. log.1 Item Page The Item page gives general characteristics of the block.1 Standard Blocks A Standard Block evaluates to a numerical value. Note that these pages also apply to Subchart Blocks.

2. open or delete attachments here. You can add. Subchart blocks are presented in detail in Section 3.2.1.ReliaSoft.1.2 Subchart Page The Subchart page is used to specify whether the block is a Standard Block or a Subchart Block.12.3 Basics 3.3 Attachments Page The Attachment page displays the attachments. if any. 3.com . 12 http://RENO.2. associated with the block.

2. Possible outcomes are TRUE and FALSE. It accepts one incoming path and has up to two outgoing paths.2 Result Storage Blocks A Result Storage Block stores numerical values passed to it during simulation. It can hold a single value or an array of values.2. A Conditional Block cannot be the final block in a Flowchart. and can have any number of outgoing paths. it checks the incoming value against a specified value or a Definition (except for a Function or Table) that evaluates to a numerical value. a Definition or a reserved keyword.13.2 Constructs 3. RENO Training Guide 13 . The value(s) passed down the outgoing path(s) may consist of a numerical value. If called during simulation. 3. It will accept any number of incoming paths.3 Conditional Blocks A Conditional Block functions as an "If" statement. That is.2. The Required Number of Executed Paths field is presented in detail in Section 3. The Required Number of Executed Paths field allows the simulation to continue when not all the incoming paths should/will be executed. it will return the last value it holds.3.

execution will continue on both paths regardless of the conditional outcome. It checks incoming values against a specified value or a Definition (except for a Function or Table) that evaluates to a numerical value. execution will continue only on the path corresponding to the conditional outcome. If this option is not checked. whether the conditions of the gate type are met). execution will continue only on the path corresponding to the conditional outcome. K-out-of-N: the condition is TRUE for at least K out of N incoming paths.com .3 Basics If Continue execution on both paths is checked.2. Possible types are: AND: the condition is TRUE for all incoming paths. If this option is not checked. The value(s) passed down the outgoing path(s) may consist of a numerical value. K must be specified in the input box below. OR: the condition is TRUE for at least one incoming path. 14 http://RENO.ReliaSoft. 3. Possible outcomes are TRUE and FALSE. A Logic Gate cannot be the final block in a Flowchart. Gate Type dictates the conditions under which a TRUE or FALSE outcome will be returned.4 Logic Gates A Logic Gate accepts multiple incoming paths and has up to two outgoing paths. execution will continue on both paths regardless of the conditional outcome (i. a Definition or a reserved keyword.e. If Continue execution on both paths is checked. XOR: the condition is TRUE for exactly one incoming path.

A Branch Gate cannot be the final block in a Flowchart. The value(s) passed down the outgoing path(s) may consist of a numerical value. execution continues down every path. The Required Number of Executed Paths field is presented in detail in Section 3. It checks an incoming value against a different condition for each outgoing path. passing the Condition is FALSE value.3. If Check condition on every branch is selected. Execution will also continue on any branch for which Continue execution on FALSE branch is checked below. a Definition or a reserved keyword. with the value that is passed down the path determined by the conditional outcome. If Check condition until first branch is TRUE is selected.2.5 Branch Gates A Branch Gate accepts one incoming path and has multiple outgoing paths. You can use the arrows that appear when Check condition until first branch is TRUE is selected to change the order in which the paths are evaluated. the incoming value will be checked against every outgoing branch. based on the order displayed. If Continue execution on FALSE branch is checked below.2 Constructs The Required Number of Executed Paths field allows the simulation to continue when not all the incoming paths should/will be executed. RENO Training Guide 15 . the incoming value will be checked against each branch sequentially. Each path is identified by the name of the next block in the path. 3. Execution continues down every path that evaluates to TRUE.13. and continues only through the first TRUE branch.2.

3. or sets the simulation point to.2. It performs a specified operation (addition. It may have multiple paths in and out. multiplication or division) on all incoming values and returns a single value on all outgoing paths.7 Flag Markers A Flag Marker marks a spot in the path of the Flowchart. a Flag Marker within the same Flowchart.ReliaSoft. A Go to Flag calls. This Construct is mainly intended to be used in conjunction with the Go to Flag Construct.6 Summing Gates A Summing Gate can have multiple incoming paths and multiple outgoing paths. subtraction. 16 http://RENO.2.3 Basics 3. The order in which the incoming paths will be handled is managed in the Precedence field.2.com .13. The Required Number of Executed Paths field allows the simulation to continue when not all the incoming paths have been executed. The Required Number of Executed Paths field is presented in detail in Section 3.

2. Run Counter if selected.2 Constructs 3.e. the counter is never reset.13. The Required Number of Executed Paths field allows the simulation to continue when not all the incoming paths should/will be executed.2. after the specified number of simulations have been completed).3. Since Construct names do not have to be unique. Simulation Counter if selected. Three types of Counter Blocks are available: Global Counter if selected. it is also up to you to avoid ambiguity in which Flag Marker the Go to Flag points to. Note that it is up to you to avoid configurations that would create infinite loops and other unresolved issues.9 Counter Blocks A Counter Block records the number of times the simulation has passed through it.e.8 Go to Flags A Go to Flag sets the current simulation point to a named Flag Marker within the same Flowchart. the counter is reset after each simulation (i. The Required Number of Executed Paths field is presented in detail in Section 3.2. as RENO cannot check this for you. the counter is reset after each run (i. RENO Training Guide 17 . 3. thus allowing for loops inside the Flowchart. after each single pass through the Flowchart).

11 Stop Flags A Stop Flag halts the simulation process when it is encountered.com . Circular references are not permitted (i.ReliaSoft. Any other Definitions that are dependent on these values are also recalculated. No further simulations. 3. the contents of a Flowchart.3 Basics 3. 3. RENO generates new values for any Random Variables and/or Probabilities in the project. 18 http://RENO. a Subchart Block cannot refer to the Flowchart in which it is placed).2. Subchart blocks are identical to Standard Blocks except for the fact that they represent the contents of a Flowchart rather than an expression to be evaluated. these values are constant.e. runs or analyses will be performed until you next simulate the Flowchart.2. A Reset Block forces RENO to generate new values for Random Variables and Probabilities while simulation is in progress. While simulation is in progress.12 Subchart Blocks A Subchart Block represents. you must specify the Flowchart to which it refers. in one block.2.10 Reset Blocks Each time the Flowchart is simulated. When inserting a Subchart Block.

the Summing Gate will send the result of A+B+C+D to all its outgoing paths once A. B and C in that order) and the user had specified 2 as the required number of executed paths.2. Note that any Flowchart used as a subchart must have a single starting point and a single ending point.g. as shown next. the Summing Gate would send the result of A+B to its outgoing paths and would ignore C. 3. B.3. some paths may not be executed (e. An event will not be triggered again until the required number of executed paths is met again. the Summing Gate would send results to its outgoing paths twice: once with a value of A+B and once with a value of C+D. Entering the required number of executed paths allows the simulation to continue when not all of the incoming paths have been executed. RENO Training Guide 19 . If there were only 3 incoming paths executed (A. As soon as the required number of paths have been executed. a FALSE path following a Conditional Block when the condition has evaluated to TRUE). If the user had specified 2 as the required number of executed paths and A. B.2 Constructs The first page of the properties window for a Subchart Block differs from that of a Standard Block.13 Required Number of Executed Paths During a simulation. In the example shown next. C and D have been executed. C and D were executed in that order. the outgoing paths will be executed and the “memory” of the Construct will be erased.

3 Basics This field is used by Result Storage Blocks. You can also choose to perform multiple analyses.3 Simulation Terminology RENO’s simulation process can involve several levels. The number of simulations in each run is set on the General page of the Simulation Console. A simulation is a single pass through the Flowchart. using the settings on the Multiple Analyses page of the Simulation Console. Summing Gates and Counter Blocks. 3. Logic Gates. A run is a set of simulations. Note that this may pass through blocks multiple times if your Flowchart includes one or more loops.com .ReliaSoft. An analysis is a set of runs. The terminology for each level is as follows. The number of runs in each analysis is determined by the settings on the Sensitivity Analysis page of the Simulation Console. 20 http://RENO.

The next figure displays the MDI of RENO and its components. this section guides you through all of the steps involved in creating Flowchart models and obtaining results through simulation. from Start select Programs. To start RENO. ReliaSoft Office and then RENO. 2000 and XP. the first window you will encounter is the Multiple Document Interface (MDI). which are explained RENO Training Guide 21 . It contains the windows you use to create your project in RENO. The RENO internal screens and commands are identical regardless of which operating system you are using. 4.1 Starting RENO RENO is a 32-bit application that has been designed to work with Windows NT. Working through this example will help you to become familiar with the software quickly and easily. The MDI is the manager for RENO.First Steps 4 In addition to information on starting RENO and a brief overview of the software's main interface.2 Multiple Document Interface Every time you begin a new session in RENO. and this training guide is equally applicable. 4.

B will take the first random value from the stream and A will take the second. Because of this. the same stream of random numbers is utilized. However. defined in a project. you need to be aware that when you use a seed. This help can be obtained at any time by pressing F1 or by selecting Contents from the Help menu. In other words. The status bar in the MDI may not be visible the first time the application is opened. Two people constructing the same model in separate systems may add Constructs or create Definitions in a different sequence. the name of the currently active window.3 Getting Help in the RENO Environment ReliaSoft's RENO includes complete on-line help documentation. Closing the MDI has the same effect as terminating the program. Spreadsheets. Attachments. but the order of the utilizations of the stream may differ depending on the way the model was constructed. The use of a seed in simulation forces the software to use the same sequence of random numbers in each simulation. resulting in repeatability.4 First Steps in detail next. the results you obtain for the examples in this training guide may differ slightly from the results presented in the text. results obtained through repeated simulations of the same model will exhibit some variability. two people may have the same Random Variables.4 A Note About Repeatability of Results Under Simulation As you may be aware.ReliaSoft. The MDI remains open until you close the program. the path and filename of the project and the amount of memory available on your computer. A and B. even though both persons may have used the same seed in simulation. 4. go to the View menu and select Status Bar. The MDI serves as the container for all Flowcharts. 4. A will take the first random value from the stream and B will take the second. The status bar will be located at the bottom of the MDI and displays the number of Flowcharts within the project. The appearance of the MDI will vary depending on the window(s) that are currently open and the configuration of the Project Explorer and Template Panel. If in one project A was created before B. The illustrations and results in this guide are taken from the example files 22 http://RENO. If the other person (in the other project) defined the same model but created B before A. thus yielding slightly different answers. To make the status bar visible. the Template Panel and the Project Explorer and manages the different active windows.com .

You will not need to use a seed for your simulations.02 C . The following general flowchart shows one way that this problem could be solved using simulation.rnp located in the General subfolder of the Examples folder located in your application directory (e.5 and std = .4. During manufacturing.Normal distribution with mean = 2 and std = .Normal distribution with mean = 30 and std = .5 First Steps Example This example is presented in the RENO file Hinge Assembly.Normal distribution with mean = 2 and std = . C and D.5 Determine the number of items that will not fit within D. A. or the expected times that (A+B+C) will be greater than D. Draw Random Values for A . A hinge is made up of four components.2 D .Normal distribution with mean = 34.5 First Steps Example included with the application. C and D Compute A+B+C NO Repeat for N Simulations Is A+B+C>D Yes Count= C ount +1 RENO Training Guide 23 . B. 4. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RENO\Examples\General). each part has some variability in its dimensions.g. B. a seed is used in these files for internal repeatability. Assume that the dimensions (widths) of the parts are distributed as follows: A .02 B .

C and D.1 Create a New Project To create a project.2 Define the Random Variables First.com . 4.4 First Steps The steps necessary to solve this problem in RENO are presented in the sections that follow. select A new blank Flowchart. each of which will generate a value in the range specified by the distribution for each part. 24 http://RENO. Click Next. On the second page. select New Project from the File menu or click the New Project icon in the MDI toolbar. At this time.5. B. You will not need a template for this example. The MDI will look like the one shown next. On the first page. click Create a New Project in the What do you want to do? window that may appear at startup.ReliaSoft. then click Next. select Blank Project to create a new project from scratch.5. click Finish to create the project. The New Project Wizard will be displayed. you will need to create Random Variables. 4. we assume that you have started the application. A. On the third page.

then select Normal from the Distribution drop-down menu. Change the Identifier to A. Defining these four Random Variables is equivalent to the first requirement in the general flowchart.4. The RENO Flowchart is as follows: It includes three steps executed sequentially from left to right (based on the direction of the arrows).5. as given in the background information for the example. RENO Training Guide 25 . click OK to save the variable and close the window. 4. Click Save & New to save the current Random Variable and leave the window open to create a new one. The properties window will look like the one shown next.5 First Steps Example To add a new Random Variable. Input the parameters: 2 for Mean and . The properties window for the new Random Variable will appear.02 for Std. C and D.3 Create the Flowchart The next step is to create a model of the problem. Repeat this process to define the Random Variables B. When you have entered the information for Random Variable D. select Add New Definition then Add Random Variable from the Project menu. as shown next.

com . B and C and passes the sum along its outgoing path.2 Use a Conditional Block to See if A+B+C Is Greater than D Add a Conditional Block to the Flowchart by selecting Add Block then Add Conditional Block from the Flowchart menu or by clicking the Add Conditional Block icon.4 First Steps 4. 4. Select Add Block from the Flowchart menu or click the Add New Block icon in the Flowchart Constructs toolbar. The block’s new name will appear below it in the Flowchart. click in the Flowchart window to make it active.3.5. This block adds the values of A. 26 http://RENO. In the properties window that appears. then enter D in the field directly to the right of the conditional operator.ReliaSoft. Double-click the new block that appears in the Flowchart to open its properties window. Click OK. enter >D for the block’s name. This is the value against which the input will be checked.1 Use a Standard Block to Compute A+B+C To add a Standard Block to the Flowchart.5. Double-click the new Conditional Block.3. Enter Compute A+B+C for the block’s name and (A+B+C) in the Evaluates to field. Select > from the drop-down menu in the Condition field. The properties window will look like the one shown next.

the sum of A+B+C) is passed to the Conditional. RENO Training Guide 27 . The properties window will look like the one shown next. If the condition is met (i. RENO will realize that there are no paths to continue down and thus terminate the current simulation.5. 4. Click OK.5 First Steps Example Enter 1 in the Condition is TRUE field.4. the value of A+B+C is greater than the value of D). The properties window will look like the one shown next. Note that there is no requirement to include a FALSE path.3 Use Result Storage Block to Count the Number of Times that A+B+C > D Add a Result Storage Block to the Flowchart by selecting Add Block then Add Result Storage from the Flowchart menu or by clicking the Add Result Storage icon. then the Conditional Block evaluates to True and it continues execution by passing 1 to the next Construct (as defined by the “Condition is TRUE” input).e.e. If a path is omitted. In the properties window for the Result Storage Block.3. The input from the Standard Block (i. enter No Fit for the name and select Sum of Results from the list of storage types. which checks it against the value of D.

the block will hold a sum of all the values passed to it.e. Note that this relationship is automatically labeled “T”. release the mouse button to create a relationship line. 4. keep this path designated as the TRUE path.com . 28 http://RENO. By default. at the end of N simulations. When the cross hair is located above the Conditional Block. if desired.5. it will hold the number of times that the Conditional Block was true (i. You can change these designations by double-clicking the relationship line. Click OK. Repeat this procedure to create a relationship line between the Conditional Block and the Result Storage Block. the number of times A+B+C was greater than D).ReliaSoft. select Join Blocks from the Flowchart menu or click the Join Blocks icon. The cursor will change to display a small cross hair. The Flowchart will now look like the one shown next. In this case.3. Click the Standard Block.4 Join the Blocks to Complete the Flowchart The final step in creating the Flowchart is joining the blocks to dictate the order in which information is passed between them. RENO designates the first outgoing path drawn from a Conditional Block or Logic Gate as the TRUE path and the second outgoing path as the FALSE path. thus. To create a relationship line between blocks. hold down the left mouse button and drag a line to the Conditional Block. you can hold down the Alt key. For this example.4 First Steps A Result Storage Block stores values passed to it across different simulations.

4. After simulation. Note that it is not necessary to create a loop (i.e. right-click the Flowchart background or de-select the Join Blocks option. RENO Training Guide 29 . you then instruct RENO to run a specified number of simulations. release the Alt key. The Flowchart will look like the one shown next. To open the Simulation Console. as shown next. The Simulation Console will open. since RENO is designed to run multiple simulations of a Flowchart.4 Simulate the Flowchart Once the Flowchart has been created.5 First Steps Example To stop adding relationships in the Flowchart and return the cursor to its normal mode. an instruction to repeat the steps for N simulations) as shown in the general Flowchart.5. select Simulate from the Tools menu or click the Simulate icon. 4. you can view the results stored in any Result Storage Block.

Rather than adding 1 to the Result Storage Block every time the condition is true.4 First Steps Enter 1000 for the Number of Simulations and click Simulate to run the simulations. A minor modification to the Flowchart can create a model that returns results as a percentage.5 Normalize the Results One way to cause results to be returned as a percentage is to add an additional Standard Block to normalize the results.5. A+B+C exceeded D in 162 out of 1000 simulations. 30 http://RENO. This will produce results as a percentage based on all of the simulations. The Simulation Status Display will appear. the Simulation Console will look like the one shown next. is displayed in the Display Variable Status area at the top of the window. or 16. the answer is given not as a percentage but rather as a count. 4.2% of the time. this block will allow us to add (1/(Number of Simulations))*100. Note that the current value of the Result Storage Block. Click Close to return to the Flowchart and note that the value is also displayed above the Result Storage Block. When simulation is complete. as described next. showing the progress as each simulation is performed.ReliaSoft. as shown next. No Fit. In this case.com .

5 First Steps Example Add another Standard Block to the Flowchart and define it as follows: This involves the use of two reserved keywords.1 You can enter the equation manually or click the Function Wizard icon or the Build Equation link to use the Function Wizard to create the equation. Note that you can click and drag the relationship line to a new destination instead. In the Flowchart. if you prefer (i. Note that recognized Definitions and keywords are automatically color coded to assist in reading the equation. IN and SIMS_TOTAL. A complete list of reserved keywords is available in Chapter 4 of the RENO User’s Guide.e. RENO Training Guide 31 .4. select the relationship line between the Conditional Block and the Result Storage Block by clicking it. You can also press Ctrl+Space to bring up a menu of Definitions and available keywords for use in the equation. 1. You can then delete the line by selecting Delete from the Edit menu or clicking the Delete icon. IN represents the value passed to the block and SIMS_TOTAL evaluates to the total number of simulations that we are running. click the relationship line and drag it to the Normalize block so that it connects the Conditional Block and the Standard Block).

not a demonstration version). To do this. When simulation is complete.5.4.ReliaSoft.3. the Flowchart will look like the one shown next.5.4 First Steps Connect the blocks in the Flowchart as shown next. using the settings specified previously. Simulate the Flowchart again. save the analysis.e. 4. using the Join Blocks function described in Section 4.com . The Result Storage Block now displays the value as a percentage. click the Save icon 32 http://RENO.6 Save and Close the Project If you are using a fully functional copy of the software (i.

2 Click Save to save the file. we have created a Files folder in the application directory. Close the project by selecting Close from the File menu. For the examples in this training guide.5 First Steps Example or select Save from the File menu.4. You will now be looking at the MDI with no projects open. If you are working with a demonstration version of the RENO software. Note that this example is based on the RENO file Hinge Assembly. The Save As window will appear.rnp located in the General subfolder of the Examples folder located in your application directory (e. RENO will save the file to your My Documents folder. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RENO\Examples\General). you can select another location if you prefer. RENO Project file (*. By default. Type Hinge Assembly as the file name and accept the default file type.rnp). but you can view the file shipped with the application if you wish to refer to this example in the future. RENO Training Guide 33 . 2. you will not be able to save the file you created for this example.g.

.

designed to introduce you to the features of the RENO software: Example 1 .rnp located in the Casino subfolder of the Examples folder located in your application directory (e.page 49 Example 4 .rnp) that is shipped with the software.Step-by-Step Examples 5 This chapter provides the following step-by-step examples.Minimizing Costs: Preventive Maintenance .page 113 Each example is based on a RENO project file (*.g. You may wish to view the file that is provided.page 41 Example 3 .page 63 Example 6 . you will not be able to save the files that you create.page 108 Example 13 . Keep in mind that if you are using a demonstration version of the software.Reliability: Snow Blower . or to create a new project for each example and work through the steps on your own.Estimating Dice Roll Probabilities .Risk Analysis: Gym Lockers .Probability: Buffon’s Needle .Maximizing Profits: The Newspaper Boy Problem .page 35 Example 2 .Financial Analysis: Retirement Strategy .Maximizing Profits: Airline Seat Allocation .page 70 Example 7 .Failure and Usage Distributions: Washing Machine Usage .Stress-Strength Calculations .Simple Reliability and Availability Metrics . 5.page 99 Example 11 . and the full solution is presented in that file.page 102 Example 12 . what is the probability of rolling a pair of 4s? RENO Training Guide 35 .Estimating Dice Roll Probabilities This example is presented in the RENO file Dice Roll. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RENO\Examples\Casino).page 55 Example 5 .Probability: Rain Prediction . what is the probability of rolling a 4? When you roll two 6-sided dice.1 Example 1 .page 92 Example 10 .Risk Analysis: Suntan Lotion .page 88 Example 9 . Consider two simple questions regarding the probabilities associated with a dice roll: When you roll a single 6-sided die.page 76 Example 8 .

com .2 Build the First Flowchart To determine the probability of rolling a 4 with a single die. as shown next for the first die.ReliaSoft.1 Create the Definitions Define two Random Variables to describe the possible results from rolling each die. 5.1.1. 36 http://RENO.5 Step-by-Step Examples 5. construct the Flowchart as follows: Use a Standard Block to obtain the result of the dice roll from the “DiceRoll1” Random Variable described above.

RENO Training Guide 37 .Estimating Dice Roll Probabilities Use a Conditional Block to check whether the roll was a 4.5. A FALSE path is not required for this example. Use a Result Storage Block to keep a sum of the number of times that a 4 is rolled (across all simulations). then a 1 is passed down the TRUE path. If true.1 Example 1 .

38 http://RENO. right-clicking the Flowchart background or de-selecting the Join Blocks option. Join the blocks by either holding down the Alt key. In this equation. selecting Join Blocks from the Flowchart menu or clicking the Join Blocks icon. Use another Result Storage Block to store the final percentage (given as a decimal). Return the cursor to its normal mode by releasing the Alt key.com .ReliaSoft. the reserved keyword IN represents the sum from the previous construct and the reserved keyword SIMS_TOTAL represents the total number of simulations.5 Step-by-Step Examples Use a Standard Block to convert the sum to a percentage. Click each source block and drag a relationship line to the destination block.

In the text box.3 Simulate the First Flowchart In the Simulation Console. To determine the probability of rolling a pair of 4s with two dice. When simulation is complete.26%. The estimated probability of rolling a 4 is 16. You can rename the new Flowchart by right-clicking the new Flowchart in the Project Explorer and selecting Rename Item from the shortcut menu that appears.1.1.5. 5.4 Build the Second Flowchart Add a new Flowchart to the project by selecting Add Flowchart from the Project menu.Estimating Dice Roll Probabilities 5. as shown next. the results are displayed in the Simulation Results Explorer and in the Flowchart.1 Example 1 . type Roll Pair of 4s and press Enter. construct the Flowchart as follows: RENO Training Guide 39 . enter 5000 for the number of simulations.

40 http://RENO. With AND selected for Gate Type.ReliaSoft.5 Step-by-Step Examples In this case. 5. This ensures that both incoming paths are executed before the Logic Gate is executed.com . It is important to note that the Required Number of Executed Paths field in the Logic Gate must be set to 2.1.000 for the number of simulations.5 Simulate the Second Flowchart In the Simulation Console. this construct requires that both paths meet the conditional requirement in order for the condition to be TRUE. two Standard Blocks are required to obtain the result from each die and a Logic Gate is used instead of a Conditional Block. The rest of the Flowchart is identical to the one described above. enter 10.

Risk Analysis: Gym Lockers When simulation is complete. 5. A lock costs $5. not buying a lock. and it costs another $10 to break the lock whenever a key is lost.5.rnp located in the Risk Analysis subfolder of the Examples folder located in your application directory (e. Consider a gym’s lockers that are used by members to store clothes and other valuables.Risk Analysis: Gym Lockers This example is presented in the RENO file Lockers. The probability of rolling a pair of 4s is 2.g.83%. The lock can fail (according to a Weibull distribution with beta = 2 and eta = 900) and the member has to replace it. locks can be purchased for the lockers. Members lose their keys (average time to key loss being 600 days). however.2 Example 2 . Suppose that: The value of the items in the lockers is normally distributed with a mean of $500 and a standard deviation of 150. The possibility of a thief stealing the items from a given locker in a year is 5% if unlocked and 1% if locked. the results are displayed in the Simulation Results Explorer and in the Flowchart.2 Example 2 . Determine the expected cost in one year of buying vs. RENO Training Guide 41 . C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RENO\Examples\Risk Analysis). as shown next. The lockers themselves cannot be locked.

ReliaSoft. three Random Variables are needed: The value of the locker’s contents: The time to lock failure: The time to key loss (using an exponential distribution with Lambda = 1/Mean): 42 http://RENO.com .1 Create the Definitions For this example.5 Step-by-Step Examples 5.2.

In building this subchart. Therefore.” which evaluates to IN. begin this Flowchart with a Standard Block named “Start. you can rename it to StolenCosts by right-clicking it in the Project Explorer and selecting Rename Item from the shortcut menu.2. Therefore. we will use a subchart to define this cost so that the effort is not duplicated. Type the new name in the text box that appears. RENO Training Guide 43 . 5. Logic Gate or Branch Gate) as a starting block. We will begin with estimating the cost of lost belongings. it is important to keep in mind that there is a different probability of occurrence for each case (with lock or without lock). but rather passed into the subchart from the main Flowchart.2. the probability should not be defined in the subchart.2. When you create the Flowchart.5.2 Build the Flowchart There are two costs involved in this problem: the cost of the lost belongings and the cost of acquiring and maintaining a lock. This in turn would then be accessible with the keyword IN.2 Example 2 . A Flowchart cannot have a Conditional Block (or a Summing Gate.1 Subchart: Cost of Lost Belongings The subchart is: Note that there is a single starting point and a single ending point. Because this cost is present in both cases (with or without a lock). This is a requirement for all subcharts. then press Enter.Risk Analysis: Gym Lockers 5.

These continue simulation by passing the values passed to them to the next Construct. To join the two paths you will need to utilize a Construct that is designed to accept multiple inputs. Note that the order in which you create the relationship lines from the Conditional Block to the “Stolen” and “Not Stolen” blocks determines which is identified as the TRUE or FALSE path. Define the Summing Gate as follows: Name: S Operation: + Join the blocks by either holding down the Alt key. if needed. right-clicking the Flowchart background or de-selecting the Join Blocks option.5 Step-by-Step Examples Define the Conditional Block as follows: This Conditional Block draws a random number uniformly distributed from 0 to 100 and tests to see if it is less than or equal to the fixed probability of items being stolen from the locker (i. “Stolen” and “Not Stolen. 44 http://RENO. Return the cursor to its normal mode by releasing the Alt key. RENO designates the first outgoing path drawn from a Conditional Block or Logic Gate as the TRUE path and the second outgoing path as the FALSE path. In order to exit the subchart without terminating the simulation. this indicates that the items were stolen and the value of the loss is passed to the TRUE path. only one input is possible.e. To do that. selecting Join Blocks from the Flowchart menu or clicking the Join Blocks icon. then "0" is passed to the FALSE path. the order of precedence is unimportant. Since this Summing Gate is performing addition. If true. If false.” each evaluating to IN. You can change these designations by double-clicking the relationship line. In this case. One option is to use a Summing Gate. When you join blocks to the Summing Gate. 5% if unlocked and 1% if locked). Click each source block and drag a relationship line to the destination block. By default. their names appear in the Precedence field in the Summing Gate properties window. use two Standard Blocks. you will need to define paths for both the True and False situations that lead eventually to a single ending point.ReliaSoft. since a Summing Gate outputs the sum of active inputs.com . so the output will be either the value passed along the TRUE path (Value) or the value passed along the FALSE path (0).

The steps that follow guide you in creating this Flowchart.Risk Analysis: Gym Lockers 5. then rename the Flowchart to Lock.2.2 Example 2 . so you can have multiple cases or subroutines within one Flowchart. Add a new Flowchart to the project by selecting Add Flowchart from the Project menu.” containing models for both cases. RENO Training Guide 45 . RENO will simulate each part of a Flowchart. it will look like the one shown next. For the case where no lock is used.5. Note that the models for both cases are in the same Flowchart.2. the Flowchart is: Add a Standard Block that evaluates to the desired probability for this case (5%).2 Main Flowchart You can now create the main Flowchart. “Lock. When the Flowchart is complete.

Return the cursor to its normal mode by releasing the Alt key. 46 http://RENO. Click one of the blocks in the copy and drag the copy to the desired location. For the “Probability” block.” The subchart will return either the value of the loss or 0 if there was no loss. Name the Subchart Block Stolen Costs. Click each source block and drag a relationship line to the destination block. then selecting Copy from the Edit menu. then select Paste from the Edit menu. make sure it evaluates to 1. select the StolenCosts flowchart as the subchart that the block will represent. you may wish to copy the model you have created in the previous step and then modify it. right-clicking the Flowchart background or de-selecting the Join Blocks option. For the case where a lock is used. The copy will be placed in the Flowchart and will be selected. Click in the Flowchart to return focus to it. rather than recreating each of the Constructs. holding down the left mouse button and dragging a box around the blocks to be selected. In the window that appears. selecting Join Blocks from the Flowchart menu or clicking the Join Blocks icon. Add a Subchart Block to the Flowchart. as the probability of theft in cases where a lock is used is 1%. represented in the Flowchart by the Subchart Block called “Stolen Costs. Add a Result Storage Block named Expected Costs to store an average value of all the outcomes (including the zeroes). the Flowchart is: Because the two cases are so similar. Join the blocks by either holding down the Alt key.com . You can do this by clicking inside the Flowchart.ReliaSoft.5 Step-by-Step Examples This will be passed to the subchart.

since you cannot have a partial failure. multiplied by the cost of each respective type of event.2 Example 2 . will result in the additional expected costs over the year. The following number of key losses are expected over a year: (INT(365/KeyLoss)) These numbers of events. Add a Standard Block as follows: RENO Training Guide 47 . The equation is derived as follows: The following number of lock failures are expected over a year: (INT(365/LockFail)) where INT is a function intrinsic to RENO that rounds a function down to the nearest integer. an additional block is added to include the additional costs of purchasing and maintaining a lock.Risk Analysis: Gym Lockers In this case.5. A simple way to account for the additional costs is to create an Equation Variable to compute the additional costs.

Once simulated.5 Step-by-Step Examples Note that if you did not use the Equation Variable and instead defined the equation directly in the Standard Block as follows. while the expected yearly cost of not using a lock averaged $22.72. you would obtain identical results.2.ReliaSoft. 48 http://RENO.85.” 5.e. click the relationship line and drag it to the “Total Costs” block so that it connects the Subchart Block and the Standard Block). you can click and drag the relationship line to a new destination instead (i.com . Join the blocks for this model. the Flowchart looks like the one shown next. Over 1000 simulations. you can delete the relationship line between the Subchart Block “Stolen Costs” and the Result Storage Block “Expected Costs” by selecting it and selecting Delete from the Edit menu or clicking the Delete icon. the expected yearly cost of using a lock averaged $42.3 Simulate the Flowchart The next step is to simulate the Flowchart. we enter 1000 for the number of simulations then click Simulate. then creating new relationship lines. In the Simulation Console. To include the new block in the copy of the original model. If you prefer. then create a new relationship line between “Total Costs” and “Expected Costs.

Maximizing Profits: The Newspaper Boy Problem 5. given that if he buys too many he will lose money on the ones he does not sell.rnp located in the Optimization subfolder of the Examples folder located in your application directory (e. A newsboy can purchase newspapers at 15 cents each and sell them for 25 cents. while if he buys too few he will lose money by not having enough newspapers to sell.Maximizing Profits: The Newspaper Boy Problem This example is presented in the RENO file Newspaper Boy. 5.1 Create the Definitions Define a Random Variable to describe the demand for newspapers. Define a Constant that represents the number of papers that the newspaper boy buys.3 Example 3 .5.3 Example 3 . This will be varied during the simulation to determine the optimum quantity.3. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RENO\Examples\Optimization).g. The exact algebraic solution to this problem is given by: 1-P(Q) = Cost/Sell = 0. RENO Training Guide 49 .67 The RENO solution is described next. The demand is normally distributed with a mean of 100 and standard deviation of 25.6 Q = 93. The problem is to determine how many newspapers to buy.

5.ReliaSoft. If true. which is the quantity of papers purchased (represented by the “Quantity” Constant) multiplied by 15 cents.” Use a Conditional Block to check whether the amount of papers on hand (represented by the Constant called “Quantity”) is equal to or greater than the demand determined in the previous step.com . then the quantity of papers sold is equal to the Random Variable “Demand” and this number is passed to the 50 http://RENO.5 Step-by-Step Examples Define an Equation Variable to calculate the newspaper boy’s supply cost.2 Build the Flowchart Construct the Flowchart as follows: Use a Standard Block to determine the demand for the newspapers based on the Random Variable called “Demand.3.

When supply meets or exceeds demand.” RENO Training Guide 51 . then the quantity of papers sold is equal to the Constant called “Quantity” and this number is passed to the FALSE path. If false. where the number of papers sold (IN) is equal to the Constant called “Quantity.Maximizing Profits: The Newspaper Boy Problem TRUE path. this is the demand quantity passed from the Conditional (represented in the equation by the reserved keyword IN) multiplied by the price (25 cents) less the supply cost (represented by the Equation Variable called “Cost”).3 Example 3 . Use two Standard Blocks called “Profit 1” and “Profit 2” to calculate the amount of revenue from the TRUE and FALSE paths.5. A similar equation is defined for the FALSE path. as shown next.

To first explore the area from 50 to 150. RENO will perform 500 simulations per run. and so on up to 150.ReliaSoft. 60 for the second run. specify 500 simulations on the General page of the Simulation Console then set the Sensitivity Analysis page as shown next.3. it is important to note that a single simulation run provides a single answer. which allows you to run the simulations multiple times and vary a constant with each run.3 Simulate the Flowchart For this example. close the Simulation Console. multiple runs will be needed to arrive at an optimum solution. making sure that the TRUE and FALSE paths from the Conditional Block are correct. after the simulation completes. thus. Join the blocks as shown in the Flowchart above.com .5 Step-by-Step Examples Use a Result Storage Block to calculate and store the average profit from all simulations. 5. 52 http://RENO. This can be done using the Sensitivity Analysis page in the Simulation Console. with the Quantity set to 50 for the first run. Click Simulate then.

com Average Profit vs.Simulations per run: 500 .3 Example 3 . Quantity Flowchart1 Average Profit 8.www. The next step is to increase the number of simulations to 50.ReliaSoft. ReliaSoft RENO .000 Quantity Flowchart: Flowchart1 . The plot indicates that the optimum value lies somewhere between 80 and 100. ReliaSoft RENO .Maximizing Profits: The Newspaper Boy Problem Click the Plot icon.000 162.000 Quantity Flowchart: Flowchart1 .000 80.Sensitivity Analysis (One Way): Quantity .000 86.000 88.000 2.000 6.200 7. To make your plot look like this RENO Training Guide 53 .000 96.000 7. Quantity Flowchart1 Average Profit 10.Multiple Analyses Disabled Given the small number of simulations (500).000 10. noise (variation due to simulation) is present.www.600 Average Profit 7.000 and focus on the region between 90 and 96.400 7.000 100. Note that the plot shown here has had its scaling changed.000 0.000 124.Simulations per run: 500 .com Average Profit vs. as shown next.000 User's Name Company 10/17/2005 12:19:01 PM 48.000 92.ReliaSoft.Sensitivity Analysis (One Way): Quantity .Multiple Analyses Disabled The next plot shows the results from repeating the simulation with the Quantity varied from 80 to 100 and incremented by 1.000 Average Profit 4.000 User's Name Company 10/17/2005 12:21:35 PM 84. incrementing by 1.000 200.800 7.5.000 8.

5 Step-by-Step Examples

one, de-select Automatic Scaling on the Control Panel and enter 7.4 for the Y-axis minimum and 7.7 for the Y-axis maximum. You can leave the values of 90 for the X-axis minimum and 96 for the X-axis maximum.

ReliaSoft RENO - www.ReliaSoft.com

**Average Profit vs. Quantity
**

Flowchart1 Average Profit

7.700

7.640

7.580

Average Profit

7.520 7.460

7.400 90.000

User's Name Company 10/17/2005 1:10:00 PM 91.200 92.400 93.600 94.800 96.000

Quantity

Flowchart: Flowchart1 - Simulations per run: 50000 - Sensitivity Analysis (One Way): Quantity - Multiple Analyses Disabled

In addition to the manual technique described above, RENO can automatically perform multiple analyses designed to determine the quantity that will maximize revenue. To do this, specify 2000 simulations on the General page, specify 60 to 120 with an increment of 12 on the Sensitivity Analysis page and configure the Multiple Analyses page as shown next.

Based on these settings, RENO will perform up to 3 analyses (or fewer if the results converge to within 0.0001 of each other before 3 analyses are complete). Each analysis will consist of the number of runs specified on the Sensitivity Analysis page. In the first analysis, each run will consist of 2000 simulations. Because we have selected to increase the simulations by 2000 in each subsequent analysis, each run in the second analysis will consist of 4000 simulations and each run in the third analysis will consist of 6000 simulations.

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5.4 Example 4 - Maximizing Profits: Airline Seat Allocation

The resulting plot of Average Profit vs. Quantity will include a marker and a line to identify the optimum value.

ReliaSoft RENO - www.ReliaSoft.com

**Average Profit vs. Quantity
**

Flowchart1 Analyses Variable Maximum Analysis 1 Analysis 2 Analysis 3

7.689 7.633

7.329

6.969

Average Profit

6.608 6.248

5.888 60.000

72.000

84.000

94.000

108.000

User's Name Company 10/17/2005 10:14:22 AM 120.000

Quantity

Flowchart: Flowchart1 - Simulations per run: 2000 - Sensitivity Analysis (One Way): Quantity - Multiple Analyses (Maximize): Average Profit

From this plot, we can see that the optimum number of newspapers for the newsboy to buy is 94.

**5.4 Example 4 - Maximizing Profits: Airline Seat Allocation
**

This example is presented in the RENO file Airline Seat Allocation.rnp located in the Optimization subfolder of the Examples folder located in your application directory (e.g. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RENO\Examples\Optimization). A given aircraft can have a maximum of 100 coach seats. Two coach seats are removed for each first class seat that is included. For example, if 4 first class seats are included, then the maximum number of coach seats is 92. Assume the following:

Demand for coach tickets is based on a Weibull distribution with beta = 2 and eta = 45. Demand for first class tickets is based on a Weibull distribution with beta = 1.2 and eta = 15. Revenue for each coach ticket is $500. Revenue for each first class ticket is $1,500. Operating costs are fixed.

Determine the optimum allocation of first class seats, assuming that only increments of four seats are allowed.

RENO Training Guide

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5 Step-by-Step Examples

**5.4.1 Create the Definitions
**

Define two Random Variables to describe the demand for coach tickets and first class tickets.

Define a Constant to specify the number of first class seats. This will be varied during the simulation to estimate the optimum number.

Define an Equation Variable to calculate the number of coach seats, which depends on the number of first class seats.

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If it is (i.5.2 Build the Flowchart Construct the Flowchart as follows: Use a Standard Block to obtain the demand for coach seats from the Random Variable.e. the condition is True).Maximizing Profits: Airline Seat Allocation 5.4. the condition is False). If demand is greater than or equal to the number of coach seats (i. so the demand quantity is passed down the TRUE path. then the RENO Training Guide 57 . then the number of coach seats sold will be equal to the demand.4 Example 4 . Use a Conditional Block to check whether the demand for coach seats is less than the number of coach seats (which is calculated by the Equation Variable).e.

the reserved keyword IN represents the quantity of seats sold (passed from the Conditional Block). so the available quantity is passed down the FALSE path.5 Step-by-Step Examples number of coach seats sold will be equal to the number of available coach seats. Use two Standard Blocks to calculate the revenue from the TRUE and FALSE paths. as shown next for the situation when supply exceeds demand.ReliaSoft. which is then multiplied by the $500 price of a coach ticket.com . 58 http://RENO. In this equation.

” A Conditional Block like the one shown next. making sure that the TRUE and FALSE paths from the Conditional Block are correct. Create a similar configuration to describe the revenue for first class seats.Maximizing Profits: Airline Seat Allocation Join the blocks for this portion of the model. You will need: A Standard Block that evaluates to “DemandFirst.4 Example 4 . RENO Training Guide 59 .5.

as shown next for the situation when supply exceeds demand. Join the blocks for this portion of the model.com . 60 http://RENO. This ensures that both incoming paths are executed before the Summing Gate is executed. Note that the Required Number of Executed Paths field in the Summing Gate must be set to 2.5 Step-by-Step Examples Two Standard Blocks to calculate the Revenue from the TRUE and FALSE paths.ReliaSoft. making sure that the TRUE and FALSE paths from the Conditional Block are correct. A Summing Gate collects the revenue values from all four incoming paths and performs a summation. Your flowchart will now look like the one shown next.

RENO Training Guide 61 .Maximizing Profits: Airline Seat Allocation The result is then passed to a Result Storage Block that stores the average total revenue.5.000. You may wish to specify YAxis limits of -40.000 to 40.3 Simulate the Flowchart On the General page of the Simulation Console. Join the blocks for the remaining part of the model. 5. specify 2000 simulations. as shown next.4. for the most informative display during simulation.4 Example 4 .

0001 of each other before 3 analyses are complete). Because we have selected to increase the simulations by 2000 in each subsequent analysis. Analyses and 0. Each analysis will consist of the number of runs specified on the Sensitivity Analysis page (6 in this case). In this case. RENO will perform multiple runs of 2000 simulations each. 20 in the second run.ReliaSoft. Enter 2000 in the Increase Simulations field and select Use Integers Only with a minimum increment of 4. The Multiple Analyses feature in the Simulation Console allows you to perform the Sensitivity Analysis multiple times in order to maximize or minimize a Result Storage Block. with an increment of 16. with “FCSeats” equal to 0 in the first run. and so on.0001 for Std. Specify 3 for Max.com . Deviation. In the first analysis. 40 in the third run. each run will consist of 2000 simulations. this comes to six runs. RENO will perform up to 3 analyses (or fewer if the results converge to within 0. as shown next.5 Step-by-Step Examples On the Sensitivity Analysis page of the Simulation Console. each run in the second analysis will consist of 4000 simulations and each run in the third analysis will consist of 62 http://RENO. as shown next. select to perform multiple analyses to determine the first class seat quantity that will maximize revenue. Choose Maximize for the Action and accept Total Revenue as the input for Result Storage. On the Multiple Analyses page of the Simulation Console. specify to vary the Constant FCSeats from 0 to 48. Based on these settings.

com Total Revenue vs.g. Determine the PM interval with the minimum cost. RENO Training Guide 63 .600 19.ReliaSoft. The preventive maintenance (PM) cost is fixed at $10 per instance.861 Total Revenue 26440.Minimizing Costs: Preventive Maintenance 6000 simulations.200 24. then close the Simulation Console.113 0.027 33041.000 hours and has a Weibull failure distribution (beta = 3.4. eta = 1000 hours) and a Weibull repair distribution (beta = 2.Minimizing Costs: Preventive Maintenance This example is presented in the RENO file Preventive Maintenance. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RENO\Examples\Optimization).4 Plot the Results In the Flowchart Control Panel. The plot that is created will look like the one shown next.rnp located in the Optimization subfolder of the Examples folder located in your application directory (e.000 28.5 Example 5 . we have ensured that only multiples of 4 are used as RENO narrows the value range of FCSeats over multiple analyses. Note that by specifying to use only integers with a minimum increment of 4.400 48. This meets the specification that only increments of four seats are allowed. 5.www.000 User's Name Company 10/17/2005 10:50:36 AM 9.5 Example 5 .696 19839.800 38.5. ReliaSoft RENO . FCSeats Seat Allocation Analyses Variable Maximum Analysis 1 Analysis 2 Analysis 3 36342.279 23139. Run the simulation. click the Plot icon to plot the simulation results.000 FCSeats Flowchart: Seat Allocation . eta = 10 hours). The costs of downtime are based on the amount of time that the unit is down: $20 per hour.Simulations per run: 2000 . Consider a unit that operates for 10. 5.Sensitivity Analysis (One Way): FCSeats .444 29740.Multiple Analyses (Maximize): Total Revenue The plot identifies 24 as the optimum quantity of first class seats.

ReliaSoft. 64 http://RENO. Define another Constant called “PM Time” to specify the PM interval. This will be set to 1 by default and varied during the simulation in order to determine the optimum time.1 Create the Definitions Define a Random Variable called “TTF” to describe the failure distribution for the unit and another Random Variable called “TTR” to describe the repair distribution. Define three Constants to describe the operating time for the equipment.com .5.5 Step-by-Step Examples 5. the fixed cost for each PM and the cost per each hour of downtime.

Use a Conditional Block to determine whether the failure time is equal to or greater than the specified PM interval. Note that the RENO Training Guide 65 . which is the cost per CM (Time to Repair x Downtime Cost per Hour) multiplied by the number of CMs (Operating Time / Time to Failure). then pass 3 to the FALSE path.5. then pass 2 to the TRUE path. 5. If true.5 Example 5 .2 Build the Flowchart Construct the Flowchart as follows: Use a Standard Block to obtain the failure time from the “TTF” Random Variable. If false.5.Minimizing Costs: Preventive Maintenance Define an Equation Variable to calculate the cost of corrective maintenance (CM).

com .5 Step-by-Step Examples numbers passed are arbitrary since the blocks following do not use the values sent by the Conditional Block. use a Standard Block to obtain the corrective maintenance cost from the “CorrectiveCost” Equation Variable.ReliaSoft. In the FALSE path (which indicates that the failure occurred before the PM). 66 http://RENO.

FALSE is the top path. This is the cost per PM multiplied by the number of PMs (Operating Time / Time to PM). note that in this Flowchart.5 Example 5 .5. Use a Result Storage Block to store the average of the PM and CM costs from all simulations. Be sure that the TRUE and FALSE paths from the Conditional Block are correct.Minimizing Costs: Preventive Maintenance In the TRUE path (which indicates that the failure did not occur before the PM). RENO Training Guide 67 . use a Standard Block to calculate the preventive maintenance cost. Join the blocks in the Flowchart.

5 Step-by-Step Examples 5.5.3 Simulate the Flowchart On the General page of the Simulation Console. On the Sensitivity Analysis page of the Simulation Console.ReliaSoft.com . with an increment of 100. specify to vary the Constant PMTime from 100 to 500. Choose Minimize for the Action and accept Cost as the 68 http://RENO. select to perform multiple analyses to determine the time that will minimize the costs. On the Multiple Analyses page of the Simulation Console. specify 1000 simulations.

Run the simulation then close the Simulation Console.631 787.5 hours.5. The optimum value will be marked on the Costs vs. Enter 100 in the Increase Simulations field. preventive maintenance should be performed at an interval of 337.Minimizing Costs: Preventive Maintenance input for Result Storage. ReliaSoft RENO . Specify 5 for Max.263 Costs 680.676 468.000 180.com Costs vs.500 420. Analyses and 0. PMTime plot. RENO Training Guide 69 .Sensitivity Analysis (One Way): PMTime .000 337.001 for Std.ReliaSoft.www.525 518.4 Plot the Results In the Flowchart Control Panel.156 100.000 PMTime Flowchart: Flowchart1 .5 Example 5 .000 User's Name Company 9/12/2005 9:58:07 AM 500. PMTime Flowchart1 Analyses Variable Minimum Analysis 1 Analysis 2 Analysis 3 Analysis 4 Analysis 5 1000. Deviation. as shown next.Simulations per run: 1000 .000 893.Multiple Analyses (Minimize): Costs To minimize costs. 5. click the Plot icon to plot the simulation results.894 574.000 260.5.

this indicates that it snowed during the simulation. the area of the driveways in that region is also normally distributed with a mean of 300 square feet and a standard deviation of 40. 70 http://RENO.1 Create the Definitions Define a Probability called “SnowProbability” and a Constant called “SnowThreshold” to determine whether it will snow on a given day.g.ReliaSoft.6. Reliability analysis on a certain snow blower yielded a Weibull life distribution with a beta of 2 and an eta of 400 hrs.com .6 Example 6 . C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RENO\Examples\Reliability).rnp located in the Reliability subfolder of the Examples folder located in your application directory (e. then the snow depth is normally distributed with a mean of 6 inches and a standard deviation of 2. Furthermore.5 Step-by-Step Examples 5. The snow blower will be deployed in a part of the country where the probability that it will snow on any given winter day is 1 in 10. If the snow blower clears 30 cubic feet an hour. If it snows. what would the reliability of the blower be assuming 100 winter days? 5.Reliability: Snow Blower This example is presented in the RENO file Snow Blower. If a random number uniformly distributed from 0 to 1 (generated by “SnowProbability”) is less than or equal to the fixed probability that it will snow on any given winter day (defined by “SnowThreshold”).

Define an Equation Variable to describe the number of hours that the snow blower will be used based on the amount of snowfall and the area of the driveways. Define a Random Variable called “Area_to_clean_ft2” to describe the area of the driveways. The equation is derived as follows: The expected depth of the snow. is: Snowfall_inches/12 RENO Training Guide 71 .6 Example 6 . in feet.5.Reliability: Snow Blower Define a Random Variable called “Snowfall_inches” to describe the depth of the snow.

” Use a Conditional Block to check whether the random number is less than or equal to the fixed probability of snow on any given winter day (based on the Constant called “SnowThreshold”). If true.6.5 Step-by-Step Examples Multiplying this by the area of the driveways (Area_to_clean_ft2) gives the number of cubic feet of snow to be cleared. based on the Probability called “SnowProbability.ReliaSoft.2 Build the Flowchart Construct the Flowchart as follows: Use a Standard Block to generate a random number uniformly distributed from 0 to 1. then multiply that figure by the 100 winter days to determine the number of hours of usage for the winter.com . Divide this number by the number of cubic feet the snow blower can clear in an hour (30) to determine the number of hours it will take to clear the snow. 72 http://RENO. 5.

5.6 Example 6 - Reliability: Snow Blower

this indicates that it snowed and the value of the Equation Variable “Usage_Hours” is passed to the TRUE path. If false, this indicates that it did not snow and 0 is passed to the FALSE path.

Use Standard Blocks called “Snow” and “No Snow,” each evaluating to IN, to continue the TRUE and FALSE paths coming from the Conditional Block.

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5 Step-by-Step Examples

Use a Summing Gate to accept the two incoming paths and perform a summation on the snow blower usage information that is passed to the construct. The result is one outgoing path.

Use a Result Storage Block called “Usage” to store an average of the snow blower usage information that is passed to the construct.

Use a Standard Block called “Reliability” to calculate the snow blower reliability.

74

http://RENO.ReliaSoft.com

5.6 Example 6 - Reliability: Snow Blower

This equation uses RENO’s intrinsic function, WEIBULL_REL, which returns the Weibull reliability at a given time. The inputs to this intrinsic function are (Time, Beta, Eta, Gamma). It is important to note here that RENO is regionally aware (i.e. it will work with your regional settings). Therefore, if your regional settings use a different decimal definition and list separator, the way that you enter values and functions will differ from the way presented here. For example, if you are using German regional settings, the inputs to this function should be entered based on the German regional decimal definition (,) and list separator (;). The use of the reserved keyword IN indicates that the daily usage time from the previous “Usage” construct will be inserted into the equation for Time.

Use another Result Storage Block called “Snow Blower Reliability” to store the last value.

**5.6.3 Simulate the Flowchart
**

On the General page of the Simulation Console, specify 1000 simulations.

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7 Example 7 . as shown next. The reliability is 98. Consider a unit with the following failure and repair distributions: Failure: Weibull with beta = 2 and eta = 100 Repair: Weibull with beta = 2 and eta = 10 Use RENO to estimate the MTTF.rnp located in the Reliability subfolder of the Examples folder located in your application directory (e.Simple Reliability and Availability Metrics This example is presented in the RENO file Compute Reliability (Simple).ReliaSoft.5975%.g.5 Step-by-Step Examples When simulation is complete. Availability and other results. 5.com .7. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RENO\Examples\Reliability). Reliability. the results are displayed in the Simulation Results Explorer and in the Flowchart. 76 http://RENO.1 Create the Definitions Create two Random Variables to describe the failure and repair distributions. 5.

7 Example 7 .7.1 Build the Flowchart To compute the MTTF.” Use a Result Storage Block to store the average result.2 Compute MTTF 5.7. 5. RENO Training Guide 77 . construct the Flowchart as follows: Use a Standard Block to obtain the failure time from the distribution defined in the Random Variable called “WeibullTTF.5.Simple Reliability and Availability Metrics Create two Constants to describe the time of interest for the reliability and availability calculations.2.

” 78 http://RENO. as shown next.2032.7. the results are displayed in the Simulation Results Explorer and in the Flowchart.com .1 Build the Flowchart To compute the Reliability for a given time. 5.5 Step-by-Step Examples 5. When simulation is complete. the time at which the Reliability is calculated is 20.7.2 Simulate the Flowchart On the General Page of the Simulation Console.3. specify 5000 simulations.ReliaSoft.7. construct the Flowchart as follows: In this case.2. The MTTF is 88. based on the Constant called “TimeForReliability.3 Compute Reliability Given Time 5.

the number of times. that the unit did not fail before the specified time). across all of the simulations. In this equation. If false. Double-click the relationship line to change it to the FALSE path.Simple Reliability and Availability Metrics Use a Standard Block to obtain the failure time from the distribution defined in the “WeibullTTF” Random Variable.5. Use a Conditional Block to check whether the failure occurred before the time of interest. as described above.7 Example 7 . Use a Standard Block to convert the sum to a percentage. the reserved keyword IN represents the sum from the previous construct and the reserved keyword SIMS_CUR represents the RENO Training Guide 79 . When you join the blocks.e. A TRUE path is not required for this Flowchart. then a 1 is passed to a Result Storage Block that stores a sum (i. RENO automatically labels the first path as the TRUE path.

the results are displayed in the Simulation Results Explorer and in the Flowchart.3. 5.com .ReliaSoft.7. Another Result Storage Block is used to store and display the final result.48%. The reliability at the given time is 96. When simulation is complete. This fraction is multiplied by 100 to convert the results to a percentage. as shown next.5 Step-by-Step Examples index for the current simulation.2 Simulate the Flowchart On the General page of the Simulation Console. 80 http://RENO. specify 5000 simulations.

RENO Training Guide 81 .7. On the Sensitivity Analysis page of the Simulation Console. 5. specify 1000 simulations. Time.4 Create Reliability vs.7 Example 7 . you will need to resimulate the Flowchart.Simple Reliability and Availability Metrics 5. Time Plot You can also use the above Flowchart to create a plot of Reliability vs. as shown next. select to vary the TimeForReliability Constant from 0 to 200 with increments of 20.1 Simulate the Flowchart On the General page of the Simulation Console.5.4. Run the simulation then close the Simulation Console.7. To do this.

ReliaSoft.” 5.000 Simple Reliability Reliability (%) 80.7.5. ReliaSoft RENO .7.www.com Reliability (%) vs.” If desired.000 Reliability (%) 40.5 Step-by-Step Examples 5.000 80.000 20.000 60.Simulations per run: 1000 .4. construct the Flowchart as follows: 82 http://RENO. click the Plot icon to plot the simulation results.000 40.000 160.ReliaSoft.5 Compute Instantaneous Availability Given Time 5.000 User's Name Company 11/6/2006 3:36:01 PM 0.1 Build the Flowchart To compute the Instantaneous Availability for a given time.Sensitivity Analysis (One Way): TimeForReliability .000 TimeForReliability Flowchart: Simple Reliability .2 Plot the Results In the Flowchart Control Panel.000 200.Multiple Analyses Disabled Note that this plot displays the Result Storage Block called “Reliability” plotted against the varied Constant.000 120. TimeForReliability 100.7. “TimeForReliability.000 0.com . you can use the Select Result Storages area in the Control Panel to select the Result Storage Block called “Survive” to be plotted either instead of or along with “Reliability.

based on the Constant called “TimeForAvailability.5. Use a Conditional Block to check whether the unit is still operating at the time of interest.7 Example 7 . as described above.Simple Reliability and Availability Metrics Use a Standard Block to obtain the time to failure from the failure distribution defined in the “WeibullTTF” Random Variable. which is 100.” RENO Training Guide 83 .

then the failure time is passed to a Standard Block that adds the repair time (based on the “WeibullTTR” Random Variable). use a Conditional Block to check whether repair is complete and the unit is back in operation at the time of interest.ReliaSoft. pass the 84 http://RENO. If true. If false. the number of times. across all of the simulations.com .5 Step-by-Step Examples If true.e. Your Flowchart so far will be configured as follows (note that the blocks have been joined in this figure to clarify the relationships). are on the FALSE path). For units that fail and are repaired (i. then a 1 is passed to a Result Storage Block that stores a sum (i. that the unit did not fail before the specified time).e.

Use a Reset Block to cause RENO to generate new values for the Random Variables.” RENO Training Guide 85 . This represents the time of the next failure for the unit that has failed and been repaired.Simple Reliability and Availability Metrics incoming value (the sum of the failure time and the repair time. No FALSE path is needed. creating a loop as follows. as calculated by the Standard Block “Time Up”) down the TRUE path.5. Use a Standard Block to add the new failure time (based on the “WeibullTTF” Random Variable) to the incoming value.7 Example 7 . Use a Go to Flag to pass the value to a Flag Marker. Add a Flag Marker between “Get TTF” and “UP. which is placed before the first Conditional Block.

if desired. a Standard Block is placed after “UP Count” and used to convert the results to a percentage and a Result Storage Block is used to store the final result. regardless of how many times it is repaired before that time. note that it is not necessary to draw a relationship line between the Go to Flag and the Flag Marker. as the path is specified by the Go to Flag. this configuration allows you to see whether the repaired unit is up at the time of interest. Your Flowchart so far will be configured as follows (note that the blocks have been joined in this figure to clarify the relationships). By checking the next failure time against the time of interest for the availability estimate.5 Step-by-Step Examples Add a Go to Flag after “Get New Failure Time” and select the Flag Marker “Time” in the Go to Flag Marker field. 86 http://RENO. When you join the blocks in the Flowchart. but you can draw the line to make the relationship visually clear. As described above for the Reliability Flowchart.ReliaSoft.com .

7. the results are displayed in the Simulation Results Explorer and in the Flowchart. RENO Training Guide 87 .7 Example 7 .Simple Reliability and Availability Metrics 5.5.5. specify 5000 simulations. as shown next. When simulation is complete.2 Simulate the Flowchart On the General page of the Simulation Console.

rnp located in the Reliability subfolder of the Examples folder located in your application directory (e. 88 http://RENO.000 64. ReliaSoft RENO .8 Example 8 . TimeForAvailability 99.6 Create Availability vs. 5.ReliaSoft.Simulations per run: 5000 . we explore stress-strength calculations.860 Availability 94.Multiple Analyses Disabled 5. Given a stress distribution (Weibull with beta = 2 and eta = 200) and a strength distribution (Weibull with beta = 2 and eta = 500).8.com Availability vs.420 Simple Availability Plot Availability 97. determine the probability that stress will exceed strength (i.000 82.7.5 Step-by-Step Examples 5. Time plot for this analysis.4 to create an Availability vs. the unit will fail).300 90.000 46.080 92.1 Create the Definitions Define two Random Variables to describe the stress and strength distributions. Time Plot You can use the same Sensitivity Analysis simulation procedure described in Section 5.520 10.www.Sensitivity Analysis (One Way): TimeForAvailability .com .e.g.Stress-Strength Calculations This example is presented in the RENO file Stress-Strength. as shown next for times ranging from 10 to 100.000 User's Name Company 10/17/2005 2:38:42 PM 100.ReliaSoft. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RENO\Examples\Reliability).7. In this simple example.000 TimeForAvailability Flowchart: Simple Availability Plot .640 95.000 28.

5.2 Build the Flowchart Construct the Flowchart as follows: Use a Standard Block and the Equation Variable to subtract stress from strength.Stress-Strength Calculations Define an Equation Variable to subtract stress from strength.5. RENO Training Guide 89 .8.8 Example 8 .

the unit failed. If false. then stress did not exceed strength and the unit did not fail. then stress exceeded strength.5 Step-by-Step Examples Use a Conditional Block to check whether (Strength – Stress) is less than or equal to 0. the reserved keyword IN represents the 90 http://RENO.com . Use a Result Storage Block to keep a summation of the number of times that the unit failed. Use a Standard Block to normalize the results by converting them to a percentage that represents the number of failures out of all the simulations. If true. In this equation.ReliaSoft. and a 1 is passed to the TRUE path. There is no need to continue on the FALSE path for this example.

8.8 Example 8 .Stress-Strength Calculations sum from the previous construct and the reserved keyword SIMS_TOTAL represents the number of simulations. 5.5. the results are displayed in the Simulation Results Explorer and in the Flowchart. as shown next. When simulation is complete. RENO Training Guide 91 . Use a Result Storage Block to store the final calculated percentage. This fraction is multiplied by 100 to convert the results to a percentage.3 Simulate the Flowchart On the General page of the Simulation Console. specify 5000 simulations.

C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RENO\Examples\Reliability). which is used to determine the scale parameter. Assume that customer loads vary and are described by a normal distribution with mean = 5 and std = 1. load. the washing machine fails according to a Weibull distribution with beta = 3 and eta = 10.rnp located in the Reliability subfolder of the Examples folder located in your application directory (e. Generate a data set of times-to-failure for subsequent life data analysis. load. the washing machine fails according to a Weibull distribution with beta = 3 and eta = 2. 5.000 hr. The equation refers to a Random Variable called “Usage Load. 92 http://RENO. eta.g. When it is being used under a 5 lb.” which describes the distribution for customer loads.5 Step-by-Step Examples 5.ReliaSoft. an inverse power life-stress relationship is assumed to describe the effect of loading on life.000 hrs (using 1000 hr increments).500 hr. When it is being used under a 10 lb. for each load.9 Example 9 . In the “LSR” Equation Variable. Obtain a plot of Reliability vs Time from 1000 hrs to 10. ReliaSoft’s Accelerated Life Testing Reference provides more information on this model.9. Consider the case of a washing machine that can have varied loads.com . Assume the times to failure of the washing machine follow a Weibull distribution.1 Create the Definitions Define an Equation Variable to describe the life-stress relationship.Failure and Usage Distributions: Washing Machine Usage This example is presented in the RENO file Failure and Usage Distribution. Determine the Reliability of the machine for 2000 hrs of operation.

Define the Constant “Life.500. or for L(V=5)=10.” which will be used to specify the time for which Reliability is estimated and also can be varied during the simulation to obtain reliability estimates for a range of times. RENO Training Guide 93 .5.Failure and Usage Distributions: Washing Machine Usage The Constants “k” and “n” are the variables of that relationship obtained by solving this model for the given conditions. Define a Random Variable to describe the failure distribution for the washing machine.9 Example 9 .000 and L(V=10)=2.

normalization is achieved by passing 100 down each of the Conditional Block’s outgoing paths rather than passing 1. Here. If false.com .2 Determine the Reliability at 2000 Hours 5.ReliaSoft. If true. be sure This example shows another way to normalize results instead of using a Standard Block as shown in other examples. then 100 is passed to the FALSE path and 0 is passed to the TRUE path1 To achieve this.9.5 Step-by-Step Examples 5. 94 http://RENO.” The Conditional Block checks whether the failure time is less than or equal to 2000 hrs (defined with the Constant called “Life”). 1.9.2.1 Build the Flowchart To estimate the reliability at 2000 hours. then 100 is passed to the TRUE path and 0 is passed to the FALSE path. construct the Flowchart as follows: Use a Standard Block to obtain the time-to-failure from the Random Variable called “Failure Time.

the product has failed.” on the FALSE path. and that 0 is entered for both the Condition is TRUE . is shown next. use a Result Storage Block to store an average of the failures (across all simulations). By default. When building this Flowchart. RENO designates the first outgoing path drawn from a Conditional Block as the “T” path and the second outgoing path as the “F” path. RENO Training Guide 95 . make sure that the “T” path and the “F” path go to the correct Result Storage Blocks.9 Example 9 .“F” Path and the Condition is FALSE . On the FALSE path. It is important to note that this Conditional Block tests for product failure before the time of interest (“Life”). If the condition is true. Thus.Failure and Usage Distributions: Washing Machine Usage that Continue execution on both paths is checked. The Result Storage Block called “Reliability. results passed down the TRUE path refer to a probability of failure.5.“T” Path fields. use a Result Storage Block to store an average of the successes. You can change these designations by double-clicking the relationship line if necessary. On the TRUE path.

5%.1 Simulate the Flowchart Keep the same settings on the General page of the Simulation Console. specify 2000 simulations.2 Simulate the Flowchart On the General page of the Simulation Console. The reliability of the washing machine for 2000 hours of operation is 98. Time Plot You can also use the above Flowchart to create a plot of Reliability vs. 5. When simulation is complete.3 Create Reliability vs.2.9. you will need to resimulate the Flowchart. Time. 5.9.5 Step-by-Step Examples 5. the results are displayed in the Simulation Results Explorer and in the Flowchart. as shown next. To do this.ReliaSoft. 96 http://RENO.9.com .3.

2 Plot the Results In the Flowchart Control Panel.990 76. Life Reliability Plot Reliability 99.5.9. select to vary the Life Constant from 1000 to 10.000 User's Name Company 8/19/2005 11:57:09 AM 10000.ReliaSoft.180 Reliability 64.com Reliability vs.000 4600.000 Life Note that you may need to change the Result Storage Block in the Plot Sheet Control Panel from Probability of Failure to Reliability.Failure and Usage Distributions: Washing Machine Usage On the Sensitivity Analysis page of the Simulation Console. as shown next.750 1000. Run the simulation then close the Simulation Console.800 87.www.000 8200.560 40. ReliaSoft RENO .000 with increments of 1000.000 2800.370 52.3.000 6400. click the Plot icon to plot the simulation results. 5.9 Example 9 . RENO Training Guide 97 .

9. Click Simulate to run the simulation.5 Step-by-Step Examples 5.com .4 Generate Data Set for Life Data Analysis 5.9. 98 http://RENO.9.ReliaSoft. specify 1000 simulations.4. 5.2 Simulate the Flowchart On the General page of the Simulation Console. construct the Flowchart as follows: The “Time to Failure” Standard Block is defined as described above for the previous Flowchart. Use a Result Storage Block to store an array of the failure times obtained by the Standard Block.4.1 Build the Flowchart To generate a set of times-to-failure that can be used for subsequent life data analysis.

Because the Simulation Results Explorer has only 256 columns.005 and a standard deviation of 0. click Details to display the table of results in the Simulation Results Explorer. as shown next.Risk Analysis: Suntan Lotion When simulation is complete.rnp located in the Risk Analysis subfolder of the Examples folder located in your application directory (e. as shown here. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RENO\Examples\Risk Analysis). The concentration of chemical X is normally distributed with a mean of 0.10 Example 10 . depending on the amount used.5 and eta = 1. RENO Training Guide 99 . the probability that somebody will have an allergic reaction is a function of the amount of the chemical applied. Note that the Transpose Results command in the Tools menu may be required to place each result into a separate row (rather than a separate column).8. then select Time to Failure Array to display the Result Storage Block results. Close the Results Explorer when you have reviewed the results.Risk Analysis: Suntan Lotion This example is presented in the RENO file Sun Tan. When the Simulation Results Explorer opens.g.5. This probability is given by a Weibull distribution with beta = 2. Assume that chemical X is added to a suntan lotion.10 Example 10 . click the (+) beside Result Storages in the Control Panel.0001 ml of chemical X per ml of lotion. The amount of lotion applied by a person also varies and is known to be normally distributed with a mean of 100 ml and a standard deviation of 20 ml. Only the first five results are displayed in the picture. From the 10% that are susceptible. The manufacturing process contains some minor variability. Determine the percentage of the population that is expected to experience an allergic reaction. 5. you must place the results in rows to view all of them. It is suspected that 10% of the population may. have an allergic reaction to chemical X.

Define an Equation Variable to describe the amount of chemical X applied by the user. which is the amount of lotion applied multiplied by the concentration of chemical X in the lotion. This probability is based on the Weibull distribution and the amount of exposure calculated by the “Chemical_Applied” variable.5 Step-by-Step Examples 5.1 Create the Definitions Define a Random Variable to describe the concentration of chemical X in the suntan lotion and a Random Variable to describe the user’s application of the lotion.10. 100 http://RENO.com . Define a Probability to describe the likelihood that a susceptible user will experience an allergic reaction.ReliaSoft.

10.10 Example 10 . Use a Result Storage Block to store an average of the results. RENO Training Guide 101 .5.2 Build the Flowchart Construct the Flowchart as follows: Use a Standard Block to calculate the percentage of the population affected based on the probability of a reaction. This equation multiplies the value of the Probability by the percentage of the population that is susceptible (0.Risk Analysis: Suntan Lotion 5.1) and by 100 to convert the figure into a percentage.

If it has not rained in the past two days.com . 5. 0. then it will rain tomorrow with probability 0.5 Step-by-Step Examples 5. We can transform the above model into a Markov chain by saying that the state at any time is determined by the weather conditions during both that day and the previous day. 102 http://RENO. In other words.3. then it will rain tomorrow with probability 0.10.11 Example 11 . Specifically.3 Simulate the Flowchart On the General page of the Simulation Console. the results are displayed in the Simulation Results Explorer and in the Flowchart.2.8. then it will rain tomorrow with probability 0.ReliaSoft. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RENO\Examples\Misc Fun). State 1 if it rained today and but not yesterday. specify 2000 simulations. as shown next. If it rained today but not yesterday.g. If it rained yesterday but not today.Probability: Rain Prediction This example is presented in the RENO file Rain Prediction. Suppose that whether or not it rains today depends on previous weather conditions over the last two days. Based on these results.4203% of the population are expected to experience a reaction to the suntan lotion. When simulation is complete. suppose that: If it has rained for the past two days.rnp located in the Misc Fun subfolder of the Examples folder located in your application directory (e. then it will rain tomorrow with probability 0. we can say that the process is in: State 0 if it rained both today and yesterday.4. State 2 if it rained yesterday but not today.

11.3). 5.4). The preceding would then represent a four-state Markov chain having the following transition probability matrix: The limiting probabilities for these states are found respectively to be 8/30. Today and Tomorrow. i. Yesterday and Today are reset to reflect the new scenario. if it rained today but not yesterday (NR_R = . RENO Training Guide 103 .2). as shown next for Today.e. we have: Proportion of Rain = 0. and if it has not rained today or yesterday (NR_NR = .Probability: Rain Prediction State 3 if it did not rain either yesterday or today.8 * 8 / 30 + 0. Define four Constants to represent the probability of rain tomorrow: if it rained for the last two days (R_R = .1 Create the Definitions Define three Storage Variables to keep track of the weather conditions for Yesterday. Therefore.4 * 4/30 + 0.8). The “R_R” Constant is shown next as an example. Today becomes Yesterday and Tomorrow becomes Today.2 * 14/30 = 0. if it rained yesterday but not today (R_NR = .11 Example 11 . At each iteration.5. 4/30 and 14/30.4 The RENO solution is presented next.3 * 4/30 + 0. 4/30.

ReliaSoft.5 Step-by-Step Examples Define a uniform Probability to determine the probability that it will rain on a given day. In addition. 104 http://RENO. respectively.com . define two Storage Variables called “Probability” and “Rain Counter” to hold the values that are passed during the simulation for the probability of rain tomorrow and the number of days that it rains. Define a Constant called “Loop” to specify the number of loops that will be performed during a single simulation run. These should also be reset after each simulation.

2 Build the Flowchart Construct the flowchart as follows: The “Start” Flag that begins each loop of the simulation has ordered relations (identified with numbers over the lines) leading first to the Standard Block that indicates whether it rained Yesterday and then to the Standard Block that indicates whether it rained Today (based on the previous loop of the simulation). If false.” If false. then the R_NR probability (.e. The Standard Blocks are shown next. then the simulation moves to another Conditional Block that checks to see whether it rained RENO Training Guide 105 . A Logic Gate construct checks to see whether it has rained for the last two days. You can set the ordered relations by selecting the source block (i. then the R_R probability (. choosing Ordered Relations. If true.Probability: Rain Prediction 5.11 Example 11 . then the simulation moves to a Conditional Block that checks to see whether it rained yesterday.3) is passed.” which holds the last value passed to it and updates the Storage Variable called “Probability. the information on whether or not it rained today would be overwritten for the next loop.11. If true. then drawing the relationship lines.8) is passed to the Result Storage Block called “Probabilities. If the execution were to happen in the opposite order. the Flag Marker).5.

” to determine whether it will rain tomorrow.ReliaSoft.2) is passed. then the NR_NR probability (.” 106 http://RENO.” in the FALSE path is just used to pass the NR_NR probability to the Result Storage Block. (The extra Standard Block.4. “ProbabilityRain. “Didn’t Rain For Two Days. “Rain” and “No Rain.5 Step-by-Step Examples today.2) and the uniform probability of rain. Two Standard Blocks. .8. If true. and evaluates to IN.3 or . then the NR_R probability (.4) is passed and if false.) Another Conditional Block uses the probability that is passed from the Result Storage Block (.” evaluate to IN and update the Storage Variable “Tomorrow. .com .

have been simulated.11 Example 11 . This value is passed to a Conditional Block called “Done?” that checks the “Loop” Constant to determine whether the specified number of days. If the specified number of days have not yet been simulated. then the FALSE path leads to a Reset Block that points to a Go To Flag that points to the “Start” Flag. 5000.Probability: Rain Prediction A Counter Block called “Rain Counter” keeps track of how many days it rains. so that the simulation can move through the flowchart again. The loop that is required to solve this example is constructed by using a Counter Block called “Day Counter” that is reset after each simulation to keep track of how many days have been simulated. RENO Training Guide 107 .5.

That will occur only if A < lsin(). Even though this probability can be easily obtained.rnp located in the Misc Fun subfolder of the Examples folder located in your application directory (e. with M hits. what is the probability that the needle will cross one of the lines?” Buffon asked what was the probability that the needle would fall across one of the lines. More than 200 years before Metropolis coined the name “Monte Carlo” method.3 Simulate the Flowchart After performing 1 simulation (since the loop is included in the flowchart).Probability: Buffon’s Needle This example is presented in the RENO file Buffon’s Needle. The proportion of rainy days is found to be 40. The Result Storage “Rain Portion” stores the last value passed to it.g. 5. d). the distance from the end of the needle to the horizontal line (denoted as “A”) is randomly distributed [0. “If a needle of length l is dropped at random on the middle of a horizontal surface ruled with parallel lines a distance d > l apart. proposed the following problem.ReliaSoft. the Standard Block “Done” calculates the number of days that it rained divided by the number of days simulated. George Louis Leclerc. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RENO\Examples\Misc Fun). it is interesting to note that the great mathematician Laplace perceived an amusing approximation for pi.com . In this case.11.34%. 180). The angle at which the needle falls (denoted as theta. This example attempts to approximate this value. . ) is also randomly distributed [0. Comte de Buffon. the results are displayed in the Simulation Results Explorer and in the flowchart. Laplace argued that if Buffon’s experiment is performed with the needle being dropped N times. which is similar to the result from the Markov chain analysis. 5.5 Step-by-Step Examples Once the specified number of days have been simulated.12 Example 12 . 108 http://RENO. then pi could be approximated by (2 * N / M).

Probability: Buffon’s Needle 5.1 Create the Definitions Define two Constants to describe the distance between the two horizontal lines (d) and the length of the needle (l).12 Example 12 . If this is greater than A. SIN and RADIANS are pre-defined functions in RENO that can be typed into equations or inserted via the Function Wizard. Define an Equation Variable to determine the span of the needle based on the length of the needle and the angle at which it falls (lsin()). then the needle crossed the horizontal line. RENO Training Guide 109 .12. as shown next.5. Define two Random Variables to describe the distance from the end of the needle to the horizontal line (A) and the angle at which the needle falls (Theta).

based on the Random Variable. then the needle crossed the horizontal line and a 1 is passed to the TRUE path. A FALSE path is not required for this example.2 Build the Flowchart Construct the flowchart as follows: Use a Standard Block to obtain the distance from the end of the needle to the horizontal line (A).12.5 Step-by-Step Examples 5.ReliaSoft. Use a Conditional Block to determine whether the needle crossed the horizontal line.com . M in Laplace’s equation to approximate ). Use a Result Storage Block to store a sum of the number of times that the needle crossed the horizontal line (i. If the span of the needle (determined by the Equation Variable called “Hit”) is greater than or equal to the distance that was passed from the preceding Construct (A).e. 110 http://RENO.

5. N in Laplace’s equation). the reserved keyword IN represents the value of M passed from the previous construct and the reserved keyword SIMS_TOTAL represents the total number of simulations (i.Probability: Buffon’s Needle Use a Standard Block to enter Laplace’s equation to approximate . RENO Training Guide 111 .e.12 Example 12 . Use another Result Storage Block to store the final result. In this equation.

ReliaSoft. This will result in 10 runs of 5000 simulations each.5 Step-by-Step Examples 5.com . as shown next.3 Simulate the Flowchart Specify to perform 1000 simulations and vary the seed from 1 to 10 with increments of 1. 112 http://RENO. using a different set of randomly generated numbers for each run to give us a feel for the variation in the results.12.

First. as shown next. you normally invest a percentage of your income in “safe investments” (bank) or in “riskier investments” (stock market).13 Example 13 .g. you do your research on the two investment vehicles and determine the following: The interest from the bank investment follows a generalized gamma distribution with mean = 1. let’s say NASDAQ and tied to the NASDAQ Composite Index. The profit from NASDAQ investment follows a normal distribution with mean = 13 and standard deviation = 28. let’s assume that you are choosing to invest some of your money in the bank and some in the stock market. corresponding to seed 10. standard deviation = 0. The flowchart displays the last value of .Financial Analysis: Retirement Strategy The results are displayed in the Simulation Results Explorer.13 Example 13 .1141 and lambda = 4.rnp located in the Financial Analysis subfolder of the Examples folder located in your application directory (e. For this example. 5.Financial Analysis: Retirement Strategy This example is presented in the RENO file Retirement Strategy. In planning for your retirement. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RENO\Examples\Financial Analysis).3106.7406. RENO Training Guide 113 .5.

13. You will decide to put Z% of your investment money in the bank for the first year and the remainder in NASDAQ.ReliaSoft.5. For example. 114 http://RENO. based on past history. varying the investment portion from 0% to 20% of your yearly income and varying the amount invested in savings from 0% to 100%. that your income will increase yearly by a percentage that is normally distributed with mean = 4 and standard deviation = 1. Given the volatility of NASDAQ. the amount invested in NASDAQ will be restricted to the initial amount put in plus annual contributions and minus any losses.000 per year and. The amount invested in NASDAQ will not increase as your income increases every year.5 Step-by-Step Examples Note that you can use the Weibull++ software to analyze data on average bank interest rates and NASDAQ annual returns to obtain the distribution and parameters for this analysis. you may wish to: Estimate your investment income over the next 20 years if you invest 5% of your yearly income with 50% going to savings.1 Create the Definitions Define two Random Variables to describe the returns from the BANK and NASDAQ investment vehicles. You can use RENO to model this investment strategy and determine a variety of different results. Compare your investment income after 20 years.com . Compare your investment income after 20 years. Thus. Assume that your current income is $40. 5. the following strategy is applied for subsequent years: Any profits made in the stock market at the end of each year will be transferred into the savings account for safe keeping. varying the investment portion from 0% to 20% of your yearly income (with 50% going to savings). It will always be equal to the first year investment. You will choose to invest X% of your income per year for the next Y years.

Define three Constants to set the number of years that will be analyzed. enabling the example file to display consistent simulated results for each flowchart. The values of these Constants can be varied during the simulation to determine specific results of interest. This is simply so that each flowchart uses a different constant. RENO Training Guide 115 .) Define two Equation Variables to calculate the amount of money that will be invested in the bank each year. the percentage of your yearly income that will be invested and the percentage of the investment that will go to NASDAQ each year. (Note that in the example file shipped with the software.13 Example 13 .Financial Analysis: Retirement Strategy Define a third Random Variable to describe the yearly increase in your income. three separate constants are defined for Years.5. This is determined by calculating the investment amount for the year and then subtracting the amount that will be invested in NASDAQ.

which hold values obtained from the flowchart during simulation. Note that these Equation Variables refer to defined Storage Variables (i. 116 http://RENO.” “CurrentSalary” has a Start Value of 40.” “BankIncome” and “StocksIncome.000.ReliaSoft. reflecting the salary you are starting at. “CurrentSalary.5 Step-by-Step Examples Define a third Equation Variable to calculate the threshold that will be used to determine whether you earned money in the stock market during a given year (and will therefore move those earnings into the bank account). You will also need to define three more Storage Variables for use during simulation: “AdditionalEarnings.e. All of the Storage Variables are reset after each simulation. All other Storage Variables have a Start Value of 0.” “StocksPortion” and “CurrentYear”).com .

13 Example 13 .” RENO Training Guide 117 .Financial Analysis: Retirement Strategy 5.5.13.2 Build the Flowchart Construct the flowchart as follows: Use a Standard Block to calculate the amount of money that will be invested in NASDAQ for the first year and place this value into the Storage Variable “StocksPortion.

(1+BankInterest/100).5 Step-by-Step Examples Use two Standard Blocks to calculate the amount of money in the bank and in NASDAQ at the end of the year and to store these values in the Storage Variables “BankIncome” and “StocksIncome. 118 http://RENO.com . For the BANK investment vehicle.ReliaSoft. For the NASDAQ investment vehicle. this is the amount invested in stocks for the given year (StocksPortion) plus the amount of money in the NASDAQ account at the end of the previous year (StocksIncome) multiplied by the interest earned during the year (1+StockProfit/100). Use a Conditional Block to check whether the value of "StocksIncome" exceeds the value of "SavingsThreshold" in order to determine whether you have earned or lost money in NASDAQ during the current year and pass the values required to update the storage variables accordingly.” respectively. this is the amount invested in the bank for the given year (SavingsPortion) plus any NASDAQ earnings from the previous year (AdditionalEarnings) plus the amount of money in the bank account at the end of the previous year (BankIncome) multiplied by the interest earned during the year.

5.13 Example 13 - Financial Analysis: Retirement Strategy

In the False path, a Standard Block called "Save Additional Earnings" calculates the amount of the earnings, if any, and updates the "AdditionalEarnings" storage variable. In the True path, a Standard Block called "Save Stocks Income" updates the "StocksIncome" storage variable.

Next, use a Standard Block to calculate next year's salary and update the "CurrentSalary" storage variable.

Once you have defined the model for the first year of investment, the next step is to create a loop in the flowchart to model each subsequent year until the specified number of years have been simulated. To do this, insert a Start flag and a Reset block before the Standard Blocks that calculate the amount of money in each investment vehicle at the end of a given year. The flag identifies the starting point for the loop and the Reset block regenerates the random variables for each year. Also insert a Go To Flag Marker after the "Save New Salary" block, which points to the Start flag and creates the loop. Within the loop, insert a Counter Block to track the number of loops that have been executed (i.e. number of years that have been simulated). Note that the Counter Block requires two paths in, which

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5 Step-by-Step Examples

keeps it from executing until both incoming paths have been executed, and that its value is stored in the Storage Variable “CurrentYear.”

Then insert a Conditional Block to check whether the required number of years have been simulated, as specified in the Constant "Years." If not, then the simulation continues to the "Earned Money" Conditional Block as described above and the simulation continues to loop through the flowchart.

120

http://RENO.ReliaSoft.com

5.13 Example 13 - Financial Analysis: Retirement Strategy

When the required number of years have been looped through, the simulation continues to a Summing Gate, which leads to two Standard Blocks that normalize the "BankIncome" and "StocksIncome" amounts across all simulations, as shown next for “BankIncome.”

A Result Storage block then stores the sum of the bank and stock incomes, which represents the total investment income for the given investment strategy.

**5.13.3 Simulate the Flowchart
**

To estimate your investment income over the next 20 years if you invest 5% of your yearly income with 50% going to savings, perform 1,000 simulations and vary the Constant “Years” from 1 to 20 with an increment of 1. The results are displayed in the following plot:

ReliaSoft RENO - www.ReliaSoft.com

TOTAL vs. Years1

110243.340 1. 5% Invested - vary years TOTAL

88629.821

67016.303

TOTAL

45402.784 23789.265

2175.747 1.000

User's Name Company 10/17/2005 1:33:44 PM 4.800 8.600 12.400 16.200 20.000

Years1

Flowchart: 1. 5% Invested - vary years - Simulations per run: 1000 - Sensitivity Analysis (One Way): Years1 - Multiple Analyses Disabled

RENO Training Guide

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000 12. InvestmentPercent 2.346 87231.519 TOTAL 174462.Sensitivity Analysis (One Way): InvestmentPercent . ReliaSoft RENO . After 20 Years .vary investment . configure the Sensitivity Analysis page of the Simulation console as follows and repeat the simulation.ReliaSoft.865 348924. varying the investment portion from 0% to 20% of your yearly income.692 261693.000 8.www.000 20. The results are displayed in the following plot.000 InvestmentPercent Flowchart: 2.Multiple Analyses Disabled 122 http://RENO.173 0.000 User's Name Company 10/17/2005 1:32:26 PM 4.ReliaSoft.5 Step-by-Step Examples To compare your investment income after 20 years.com .com TOTAL vs.vary investment TOTAL 436155.000 16.Simulations per run: 1000 . After 20 Years .000 0.

The results are displayed in the following three-dimensional plot. TOTAL 482778 429136 375494 321852 268210 214568 160926 107284 53642 RENO Training Guide 123 .Financial Analysis: Retirement Strategy To compare your investment income after 20 years.13 Example 13 . configure the Sensitivity Analysis page as follows and repeat the simulation. varying the investment portion and the amount invested in savings.5.

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5 days a week. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RENO\Examples\Reliability).page 129 Note that these examples are not covered in detail.Practice Questions 6 This chapter provides the following examples. the aircraft must undergo repair before its next flight.g. Each example is based on a RENO project file (*.page 127 Example 5 . Each sortie is 1. RENO Training Guide 125 .5 hours and it takes 30 minutes to refuel and check an aircraft before it can undertake another sortie.page 128 Example 6 .page 125 Example 2 . it is sent to the maintenance facility where it is repaired based on a lognormal repair distribution with mean = 2 hours and std = 0. Assume an 85% probability of the aircraft being ready to fly. Consider a fleet of aircraft in which each aircraft can be either ready to fly or failed.Probability: Roulette .Reliability and Availability: Aircraft Readiness This example is presented in the RENO file Aircraft Readiness.rnp) that is shipped with the software. If the aircraft fails during flight.7.Probability: Blackjack . however.Probability: Running Shoes . 6.rnp located in the Reliability subfolder of the Examples folder located in your application directory (e. These sorties can take place only during a 6 hour period each day. and the full solution is presented in that file.Reliability and Availability: Aircraft Readiness .Probability: Buffy’s Mood . Also assume that an aircraft can fail during flight with a 30% probability.page 127 Example 4 .Risk Analysis: Complex Fuel System Risk Analysis . designed to provide further practice in building RENO Flowcharts to model probabilistic scenarios: Example 1 .1 Example 1 . the sortie is considered to be successful.page 128 Example 7 . Determine the expected number of successful sorties per day per aircraft.Probability: Lottery . If an aircraft cannot fly.page 126 Example 3 .

ReliaSoft. cases and logic to illustrate the use of RENO constructs. It is a risk issue if it fails to ventilate and an ignition source is present at the same time. The number of personnel in the compartment is normally distributed with mean of 5 and standard deviation of 1. Assume a MTTF of 1000 days for the ventilation mechanism and a fixed probability of an ignition equal to 20%. It is a risk issue if it fails to ventilate and an ignition source is present at the same time.rnp located in the Risk Analysis subfolder of the Examples folder located in your application directory (e. it can cause a fire 80% of the time. Regarding Personnel At any time. If ignited. there is a 30% chance that personnel will be in the compartment. It uses arbitrary numbers. 126 http://RENO. there is a 50% probability that they may be exposed/injured by the fire and a 99% probability that they may be exposed/injured by the explosion. Assume a MTTF of 1000 days for the ventilation mechanism and a fixed probability of an ignition equal to 20%. DISCLAIMER: This example does not represent any real system.000 days. an explosion will not occur. Assume a MTTF of 1000 days for the ventilation mechanism and a fixed probability of an ignition equal to 20%. it can cause a fire 99% of the time.2 Example 2 . nor are the values or logic used herein representative of any real world scenario.g. as follows: The leak failure mode is governed by a Weibull distribution with a shape parameter of 3 and a scale parameter of 1. with a specified fixed probability for each type: Atomizing Leak – 10% Minor Leak – 20% Major Leak – 70% Atomizing Leak An atomizing leak is undetectable. It is a risk issue if it fails to ventilate and an ignition source is present at the same time.com . If personnel are in the compartment. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RENO\Examples\Risk Analysis). A complex fuel system is susceptible to leaks. If a fire does not occur.Risk Analysis: Complex Fuel System Risk Analysis This example is presented in the RENO file Complex Fuel System. The probability that it is a fire rather than an explosion is 80%. Each leak can be classified as one of three types.6 Practice Questions 6. a fire or an explosion may result 40% of the time. Major Leak A major leak is detectable 90% of the time. Minor Leak A minor leak is undetectable. If ignited. If a fire occurs. an explosion will occur. If an ignition occurs.

0.rnp located in the Casino subfolder of the Examples folder located in your application directory (e. so-so (S) or gloomy (G).Probability: Buffy’s Mood This example is presented in the RENO file Buffy’s Mood. you hit (1) or stay (0) depending on what the dealer is showing (D1-D10) and your hand. 0. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RENO\Examples\Misc Fun).g. In the MyStrategy table.3 Example 3 . 6.3 Example 3 . If she is so-so today. Buffy is either cheerful (C).3. The dealer stays at 17 and higher.g.4 Example 4 . S or G tomorrow with respective probabilities of 0. Using a single deck that is reshuffled after every hand. RENO Training Guide 127 . S or G tomorrow with respective probabilities of 0.Probability: Blackjack This example is presented in the RENO file Blackjack. Note that in this simple example all hands payoff 1-1 (including a blackjack) and no splits or double downs are contemplated.1. while you play based on the strategy defined in the MyStrategy table. If she is cheerful today.7. On any given day.2. then she will be C.4.6. play a game of blackjack against the dealer.3. then she will be C. 6. 0. 0. and what type of injury they will sustain.rnp located in the Misc Fun subfolder of the Examples folder located in your application directory (e.Probability: Blackjack Determine the number of personnel who may be injured if 100 units operate for 3000 days. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RENO\Examples\Casino).

Upon leaving the house. Consider a simple lottery game with a number of balls (possible outcomes) equal to MaxNumber (e. 2. 7.6 Practice Questions If she is gloomy today.rnp located in the Casino subfolder of the Examples folder located in your application directory (e.Probability: Lottery This example is presented in the RENO file Lottery. So i = 1 k + 1 for all i if our runner owns k pairs of shoes. S or G tomorrow with respective probabilities 0. then Xn is a Markov Chain with transition matrix : which is doubly stochastic since row sums and column sums are 1. what proportion of the time does he run barefoot? To find an algebraic solution.Probability: Running Shoes This example is presented in the RENO file Running Shoes. 9 and 10 are possible outcomes). and leave his running shoes. Use RENO to obtain simulated results. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RENO\Examples\Casino).6 Example 6 . 6. Buffy is cheerful 30/59 or about 51% of the time. 8. 3. respectively. 0. Use RENO to obtain a similar answer. so-so and gloomy. 6.4. The limiting probabilities for these states are found to be 30/ 59. Drawn balls are not replaced. 5.5 Example 5 . What proportion of time is Buffy cheerful? An algebraic solution to this can be obtained using Markov chains where the transition matrix is: with three states: cheerful.4. if MaxNumber is 10 then 1.g.rnp located in the Misc Fun subfolder of the Examples folder located in your application directory (e.2. If he owns a total of k pairs of running shoes. Determine the number of wins and losses that can be expected if there are 10 balls and your ticket has 6 numbers. either by the front or back door. he chooses a pair of running shoes from beside the door or goes running barefoot if there are no shoes at the door from which he leaves. A man leaves his house each morning and goes for a run. 6.g. Assume that the balls that are drawn are equal to the NumberOfBalls. he is equally likely to enter. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RENO\Examples\Misc Fun). then she will be C.com . 0. 128 http://RENO. 4. let Xn be the number of shoes at the front door on day n. 16/59 and 13/59. so each number can only appear once. On his return. He is equally likely to leave either from his front or back door.g.ReliaSoft. Therefore.

Probability: Roulette This example is presented in the RENO file Roulette.Probability: Roulette 6. It details expected gains and losses per 38 games for $1 bet.7 Example 7 . RENO Training Guide 129 .7 Example 7 .g. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RENO\Examples\Casino). including: Only Straight Up Bet Only Color Bet Etc. You can use RENO to simulate different bets. Use RENO to analyze a straight up bet.rnp located in the Casino subfolder of the Examples folder located in your application directory (e.6. The house edges on all possible bets for American roulette are described in the following table. Each number has a probability of 1/38 of being a winner.

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0375.2 Example 2 . The dependence of a given scenario on the previous day is achieved by looping over the model while keeping track of Buffy’s mood on the previous day. the player’s final balance is $99.Risk Analysis: Complex Fuel System Risk Analysis After performing 1000 simulations. the results are displayed in the Simulation Results Explorer and in the flowchart. the results are displayed in the Simulation Results Explorer and in the flowchart are as follows: Injury Due to Explosion from Atomizing Leak – 2. 7. and the full solution is presented in that file.7857 Injury Due to Fire from Atomizing Leak – 1. 7 Note that these examples are not covered in detail.56% of the time. Buffy is shown to be cheerful 51.Reliability and Availability: Aircraft Readiness After running 10.Probability: Blackjack Assuming that the player started with $100. The expected number of sorties per day per aircraft is 2.4 Example 4. the results are displayed in the Simulation Results Explorer and in the flowchart. after 1000 simulations.Probability: Buffy’s Mood After a single simulation (because the Flowchart includes a loop). Each example is based on a RENO project file (*. the example should be solved using a single simulation.1932 Injury Due to Fire from Major Leak – 3.7999 Injury Due to Fire from Minor Leak – 7. Because the flowchart contains a loop.9889 7.Answers to Practice Questions This chapter provides the answers to the Practice Questions presented in the previous chapter. Note that in order to approach the limiting probabilities. 7.2101 Total Injuries = 14. this scenario needs to be run multiple times.3 Example 3 .1 Example 1 . 7.000 simulations.96. RENO Training Guide 131 .rnp) that is shipped with the software.

7 Example 7 .Probability: Lottery After performing 500 simulations. as shown next.89% of the time. 132 http://RENO.7 Answers to Practice Questions 7. the results are displayed in the Simulation Results Explorer and in the flowchart. the results are: Wins: 4 Losses: 496 This can be repeated for different numbers of balls and winning numbers on the lottery ticket. 7. Note that as the odds against winning get larger. 7.ReliaSoft.Probability: Roulette After performing 1000 simulations. the results are displayed in the Simulation Results Explorer and in the flowchart. you need to run the simulation longer in order to realize any winning outcomes.6 Example 6 .Probability: Running Shoes After a single simulation (because the Flowchart includes a loop).com .5 Example 5 . The man runs barefoot 14.

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