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Liberals, Tories separated by just one point in Ontario election: poll

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Ontario's Premier Dalton McGuinty (RIGHT) and his wife Terri McGuinty (LEFT), wave after touring Mississauga's electrovaya plant, Monday September 12, 2011

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http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/09/12/liberals-tories-separated-by-just-one-point-in-ontario-election-poll/[9/12/2011 6:43:57 PM]

Liberals, Tories separated by just one point in Ontario election: poll | News | National Post
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Postmedia News Sep 12, 2011 – 6:05 PM ET | Last Updated: Sep 12, 2011 6:24 PM ET

By Lee Greenberg TORONTO — Dalton McGuinty’s Liberal party is gaining momentum in the election campaign and now leads the Conservatives by a paper-thin margin, according to a new poll done for the Ottawa Citizen. RELATED
John Ivison: McGuinty says he’ll stay full four years if re-elected

The governing Liberals are siting at 38 per cent support, a slim, one-point lead over the Progressive Conservative party, which are at 37 per cent support, according to the Ipsos Reid poll. The third-place New Democratic Party is showing robust support, at 24 per cent, while the Green party has almost disappeared from public support at one per cent. The poll is the first to track support since the provincial campaign kicked off Sept 7. The contest has so far been dominated by talk of a Liberal tax credit for employers hiring skilled immigrants. The Tories portrayed that policy as one that would prioritize “foreign” workers over the nearly 500,000 domestic unemployed, despite Liberal assurances it applied only to Canadian citizens. The Liberals labeled their chief rivals as xenophobic, while Tories said Liberals were prioritizing groups of immigrants. Ipsos senior vice president John Wright says it is too soon to tell what impact the strategy will have on the Oct. 6 vote. “We’re in the early days of the campaign,” he said. “What’s normally started out as the central issue has not ended up as the issue.” However, the governing Liberals, seeking a third consecutive majority, have gained considerable momentum. An Ipsos poll just two months ago had the Liberals trailing the Conservatives by a considerable, 11-point margin. At the time, Wright said the race was PC leader “Tim Hudak’s to lose.” On Monday, Wright said the dynamic of the race had changed considerably. “Right now we have a minority government for somebody,” he said. “The edge goes to the Tories because they will get their vote out but we don’t know for sure because there’s still another three weeks to go.” Wright says the Tory base is “much more committed” than Grit supporters to follow through and vote, he says. Fully 67 per cent of PC supporters said they were “absolutely certain” to vote on October 6th, whereas only 61 per cent of Liberal supporters said the same thing. The NDP, whose support has doubled in roughly two years, would hold the balance of power in a minority government scenario, said Wright. A regional breakdown of the numbers shows some interesting movement. Eastern Ontario is now the biggest Tory stronghold in the province, with 46 per cent of voters here supporting the PC party. Liberals hold 36 per cent in the region while New
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Libya shows signs of descending into long-term, Iraq-style violence http://t.co/BzAkWwD 6 minutes ago Ontario Liberals, Tories separated by just one point: poll http://t.co/oSlkpzW 23 minutes ago From @fullcomment: Libya shows signs of descending into long-term Iraq-style violence http://t.co/BzAkWwD 31 minutes ago
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http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/09/12/liberals-tories-separated-by-just-one-point-in-ontario-election-poll/[9/12/2011 6:43:57 PM]

Liberals, Tories separated by just one point in Ontario election: poll | News | National Post

Democrats have 17 per cent support, that party’s lowest levels in the province. The Liberals have made significant advances in three other parts of the province – Central Ontario, Southwest Ontario, and the North – where the immigrant tax credit was not likely the issue, Wright says, adding it’s too early to tell why those numbers have swung in the Liberals’ favour. “There’s something else going out there because the Tories have dropped in three regions that probably wouldn’t care much about this issue, except to vote against the government,” he said. In the most-watched region of the province, the critical ‘905’ suburban beltway surrounding Toronto, the Grits lead the Tories 41 per cent to 38 per cent. The Grits hold 15 of 23 seats in the 905. In Toronto, the governing party holds 19 of 23 seats, and Wright says there is no sign of a Tory breakthrough. “To win a majority they would need to take (seats in) Toronto,” he said. Wright says the Progressive Conservative party will need to broaden the scope of its pitch to attract more voters. The current offering of tax cuts and opposition to the Liberal tax credit is too limited. “If this is playing to his base you have to ask the question what is going to play to the rest of the people,” he said. “Because if you just play to your base you don’t win a majority.” Meanwhile, women voters are more likely to support the McGuinty Liberals, who attract 38 per cent female support, than Conservatives, who attract 34 per cent. New Democrats draw 27 per cent support by women. The Ipsos/Ottawa Citizen poll surveyed 800 randomly-selected adults by telephone between Sept 7 -11. It is considered accurate to within 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Ottawa Citizen
Posted in: Canada, News Tags: Canadian Politics, Dalton McGuinty, Government And Politics, Liberal Party Of Ontario, Liberals, NDP, Ontario, Ontario Election, Ontario Election 2011, Ontario Politics, PC Party Of Ontario, Progressive Conservatives, Tim Hudak

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http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/09/12/liberals-tories-separated-by-just-one-point-in-ontario-election-poll/[9/12/2011 6:43:57 PM]

Liberals, Tories separated by just one point in Ontario election: poll | News | National Post

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"Meanwhile, women voters are more likely to support the McGuinty Liberals, who attract 38 per cent female support, than Conservatives, who attract 34 per cent." And yet McGuinty plans to cut the public sector where employee equity makes sure women have benefited by affirmative action programs, so does that mean that women will be downsized or will they protected?
0 minutes ago Like

anon131000377
Go and vote - apathy will get the Tax Man another four years of fleecing us with all kinds of new taxes...four years is a long time to pay, folks...and pay...and pay...
1 minute ago Like

Sassylassie
Wage war on the ecnonuttyness and green energy boondoggle, go get Dalton's fake green energy and promise to dismantle it one blade at a time. Funny the last poll had MacMaggot ahead by 15 points what happened to that poll?
18 minutes ago 2 Likes Like

Gardiner Westbound
Hudak isn't talking about the things that matter. He has ruled out doing anything meaningful about the big ticket items that are killing us, like the HST and Dalton Daycare. Conservatives may as well stay home election day.
22 minutes ago 1 Like Like

CubaSiCastroNo
I agree, focusing on Dolt as a Taxman is not enough, there are lots of people who seems to think that high taxes are necessary.... I can't understand it but you can read the comments and figure out that.... Tim has to clearly say how is going to bring down the deficit, cut red tape, cut some of the creatures created by Dolt, etc. Mike Harris got elected by stating exactly what he was going to do. The people who hate Harris are the same ones campaigning for Dolt so who cares about what they think
1 minute ago in reply to Gardiner Westbound Like

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http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/09/12/liberals-tories-separated-by-just-one-point-in-ontario-election-poll/[9/12/2011 6:43:57 PM]

Liberals, Tories separated by just one point in Ontario election: poll | News | National Post
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http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/09/12/liberals-tories-separated-by-just-one-point-in-ontario-election-poll/[9/12/2011 6:43:57 PM]