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The Exaflood

10 18

talk.the.future.08
September.5.6 | Campus Krems | Austria

Bret Swanson
Center for Global Innovation
The Progress & Freedom Foundation | pff.org
bret.swanson@gmail.com
Home of Innovation
Internet’s Three Phases
• Phase One – Arpanet in 1969

• Phase Two – Net comes to the masses in


1995 via email and World Wide Web

• Phase Three – Broadband means “the


network is the computer” . . . Video ushers
in the Exaflood
Prefixes
kilo = 103

mega = 10 6

giga = 10 9

tera = 10 12

peta = 10 15

exa = 10 18

zetta = 10 21
What is an exabyte?

• Vienna University Library holds about 2.5


million big books
• Each book is about 1 megabyte
• Vienna University Library is thus 2.5
terabytes
• One exabyte is 400,000 Vienna University
Libraries
YouTube
– 50 petabytes per month as of mid-2007
– 600 petabytes per year
– ~7% of U.S. Internet traffic
– all original broadcast and cable TV and radio
content adds up to ~100 petabytes per year
– YouTube streams that much data in 2 months
– YouTube receives 13 hours of video every minute
= 18,720 hours of new video each day
– a HI-DEF YouTube would mean 12 exabytes per
year, or equal to the entire U.S. Internet of 2007
– YouTube and competitors still in their infancy
Video conferencing
–MSN Messenger Video Calling in mid-2007
generated 4 petabytes per month = to the
entire Net in 1997
–Cisco’s new Telepresence requires 15 Mbps
symmetrical bandwidth
–A one-hour conference call = 13.5
gigabytes
–Just 75 of these calls would equal the
entire Internet of 1990
–30 exabytes of telephone traffic each year
–move to video-phones would mean 400
exabytes – at least – in the U.S., or 10x the
size of the existing world Internet
Home video /
motion pictures
– 10 exabytes of home video each year
– conversion to HD would mean 100 exabytes per
year, or 3x today’s annual world Internet traffic
– one HD movie is ~10 GB
– Amazon, Netflix, Blockbuster, Apple all in the movie
download business
– So are cable companies and telcos, CinemaNow,
MovieLink, etc.
– With HD, NetFlix today would ship 5.8 exabytes of
DVDs each year
– American HD movie downloads could generate 100
exabytes per year, or 3x today’s world Internet
High Definition
=
6x
Standard Definition
IPTV
– Telcos and possibly cablecos moving to IPTV
– Remains to be seen just what portion of content will
actually traverse the Net
– Regardless, last mile bandwidth must expand 10-100x to
meet new IPTV challenges
– Joost and competitors deliver free TV over the Net – 350
megabytes per hour – Mike Volpi of Cisco is CEO
– Single-cast and multi-cast generates many times the traffic
of broadcast
– NBC streamed 50 million of its TV shows in October
2007
– NBC Universal and News Corp. launched premium Hulu
with their considerable TV and film resources
3D / Home theater
– Today’s HD video requires between 8 and 18 Mbps,
depending on the codec
– Next generation 3D video will require between 50 and
100 Mbps
– HP Labs’ “IMAX at Home” – 4,096 x 2,304 pixels or 16 x
9 ft. image – 250 GB for two-hour movie (uncompressed)
– Ultra High Def (UHDTV) – circa 2016 – 7,680 x 4,320
33 megapixels @ 60 fps, or 16-32x the pixels/sec of
HDTV
Uncompressed two-hour movie ~ 25 terabytes
MPEG4 two-hour movie ~ 360 gigabytes
– So all the HD numbers get multiplied by another 10x,
which is 100x more than standard def video
– 100 exabytes of HD video becomes a zettabyte of 3D
Online games /
Virtual Worlds
– Graphics chips from Nvidia and ATI make 3D
gaming and virtual worlds a possibility for first time

– Otoy / LightStage makes possible real-time 3D


rendering and mass- and peer-to-peer distribution
of rich video

– One massively parallel game with 1 million players


could generate 100 PB per month – more than an
exabyte a year – or one-tenth today’s U.S. Internet
Cinema 2.0
• AMD / ATI promote interactive cinema
• Ruby / AMD Unprocessed
• http://www.youtube.com/user/AMDUnprocessed

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wi5s4yP1Kpg

• call it Wiki-cinema
• Intel Larrabee
• “many core” “visual computing”
• http://www.intel.com/pressroom/archive/releases/20080804fact.htm

• Tukwila 4-core (now)

• Dunnington 6-core (this fall)


40 hours vs. Right Now
photorealistic 3D ... rendered in real-time
http://www.amd.com/us-en/assets/content_type/DigitalMedia/AMD_Ruby_S04.swf
LightStage
• Real-life image capture and rendering for real-time 3D photorealistic virtual worlds
Imaging
– Mobile phone cameras
1 billion mobile phones sold each year beginning 2006
400 million camera phones sold in 2006
700+ million camera phones sold by 2009
– Personal Cameras
100 million compact digital cameras sold by 2009
6 million high-resolution DSLR cameras sold by 2009
– Surveillance / Medical / Automobile / PCs
A dozen cameras on each city block or building
entrance?
A dozen digital cameras in every automobile?
A camera in every PC: 100 million per year
Mobile revolution
– 3 billion mobile phone users / 1 billion PC users
– 1.6 billion 3G mobile subscribers by 2012
– iPhones, Treos, Blackberries are not phones or PDAs
– They are teleputers – mobile computers
– Google saw huge traffic spike from iPhones on Christmas
Day 2007
– Mobile Internet is now real
– Amazon Kindle
– We can now consume and produce rich content
anywhere, anytime, not just at our desktop or laptop
– More people connected more of the time – New data
traffic patterns
Mobile Health
• Phone is most personal device
• BAN – Body Area Network
• Remote diagnostics, monitoring, presence,
reminders, family updates
• ECG, apnea, coumadin
• Replace many large devices with small
sensors, phone, and cloud – “diagnostics as
a service”
RFID

– We will tag every item everywhere


– How many hundreds of billions of items? No one knows.
– How much information will these tags collect? How will
we transmit and store this information?
– John Chambers says by 2000 we had connected 100
million devices
– By 2010 we will connect 14 billion devices to the Net
IPv6
– IPv4 is 32-bit
4 billion unique addresses
Network Address Translation
Payload up to 64 KB
– IPv6 is 128-bit
3.4 x 1038 unique addresses
or 340 billion billion billion billion
Payload up to 4 GB “jumbograms”
– Every person, device, product, object, place, and virtual
space can have thousands of addresses
– Connect everything to the Net
All things digital
annual worldwide digital information created, captured,
and replicated (though not necessarily stored or
transmitted)

• 161 exabytes in 2006

• 988 exabytes in 2010 (est.)


source: “The Expanding Digital Universe.” IDC. March 2007.
Beyond Moore’s Law
3D Chips
– the ultimate “system on several chips”
– chip stacking with deep vias and a million contacts per sq. cm. eliminates the
bottleneck of pins
– staying “on-chip” boosts memory bandwidth by several orders of magnitude

Integrated optical devices


– implantation of thousands of lasers and photodetectors in silicon
– direct optical bandwidth from chip to chip and across the Net

Neuromorphic Analog
– biological basis for more powerful and ubiquitous sensors that feed ever
more information back into the network

Hard Disk Miracle….


– 2x Moore’s law
– $500 bought 100 megabytes in 1991…today $178 buys a terabyte drive…
disk storage has thus advanced by a factor of 10,000+ in 17 years
– Continues with new Hybrid Disk storage, Ovonic Memory, and “Racetrack
Memory”…
LAN’s End
Trusted Computing
– Eliminates firewalled LANs and infuriating virus
software and passwords
– Allows all local traffic, storage, and apps seamlessly
to flood the Internet

Dark Web
– John Chambers of Cisco writes that unconnected,
firewalled, quarantined data of the Dark Web could
be 500 times the size of the existing Internet

Network Computing / Web Services


– Googleplex paradigm of centralized computing –
applications move from the PC to “the cloud”
– Hosted real-time applications will require robust
connections of 25 Mbps+
LAN’s End
Peer to Peer
–File sharing – music, tv, home videos,
podcasts
–Some have claimed BitTorrent accounts for
one-third of Internet traffic. This estimate is too
high, but BitTorrent and its competitors are a
major factor.
–Applications like Microsoft’s Photosynth, which
reach out, gather, and synthesize data and
content from across the Web

Remote Backup
–2 billion PCs
–50 GB per PC (in the near future)
–100 exabytes
2008
• Internet . . .
• U.S. traffic ~ 20 exabytes
• World traffic ~ 60 exabytes
• Digital storage . . . 1 terabyte = $177.99
• iPod memory . . . 4 GB = $25
• Biology . . . $0.001 per DNA base pair
• China . . . GDP ~ $3.6 trillion
• World economy . . . GWP ~ $55 trillion
• Internet . . .
1992
• U.S. traffic ~ 48 terabytes
• World traffic ~ 48 terabytes
• Digital storage . . . 1 terabyte ~ $5,000,000
• “iPod memory” . . . 4 GB ~ $500,000
• Biology . . . $10 per DNA base pair
• China . . . GDP ~ $328 billion . . . like
Greece or Denmark today
• World economy . . . GWP = $20.4 trillion
. . . like US+Germany+Japan today
2018
• Internet . . .
• U.S. Net ~ 3 zettabytes
• World Net ~ 10 zettabytes
• Digital storage . . . 10 petabytes ~ $177.99
• iPod memory . . . 85 years’ worth of video
• Biology . . . $0.000001 per DNA base pair
• China . . . GDP ~ $9.4 trillion
• World economy . . . GWP ~ $80 trillion
2024
• Internet . . . real-time photorealistic 3D
holographic virtual worlds
• Digital storage . . . All TV and radio on your
laptop
• Biology . . . One genome for $100 + a full
MRI body-scan for free!
• China . . . GDP ~ $16 trillion
• World economy . . . GWP ~ $100 trillion
1989
• the “most powerful
computer ever!”

• 20 MHz

• 2 MB RAM

• for “only” $8499.00


($15,000 in 2008
dollars, or €10.000)

• “monitor and mouse not


included”
Adding up the bytes
Summing these trends, circa 2015 in the U.S., we project

Movie downloads and P2P………………..….100 exabytes


Video calling and virtual windows…………...400 exabytes
“Cloud computing” and remote backup……....50 exabytes
Net video, gaming, and virtual worlds……......200 exabytes
Non-Internet “IPTV”……………………….100+ exabytes
Business IP traffic…………………………….100 exabytes
Other (phone, Web, e-mail, photos, music)…....50 exabytes
Total…………………………1,000 exabytes = 1 zettabyte
Zettabyte by 2015?
How big?

• In 2015, the U.S. and Europe therefore


could each transmit the equivalent of 12
Vienna University Libraries every second
for the entire year.
Zettaflood, anyone?

10 21

see “Estimating the Exaflood”


and other Center for Global Innovation publications at
www.pff.org/cgi/publications.html