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Latest forecasting methods applied to lean production systems

Luis Arteta, Jos Castellanos, Jos Fragozo, Eliana Muoz Dept. Of Industrial Engineering, Universidad Del Norte Barranquilla, COLOMBIA

Abstract- Nowadays technology increases in an exponential rate that is only overcome by our ambition of keep growing, every single day appears a new product, that is designed taking in account the life cycle and obsolescence time, this happens specially with the information technology companies (ITC) that in our days are the most powerful giants of world`s industry in the other hand we are using too much energy than the planet is capable to provide in an undefined period of time for that reason alternative energy is earning value, this paper focuses on two new forecasting methods, the first one help the forecasting for parts on a technology supply chain, and the second one help us to forecast the wind speed in the energy industry in order to increase the efficient of wind energy technology.

theorem and Weibull probability distribution there are new advances in this areas we are going to review two papers, the first one Bayesian forecasting of

parts demand published by Elsevier B.V where applies Bayes theorem in the forecast of demand of technology parts and the second one Development of wind speed forecasting Model Based on the Weibull Probability Distribution published by Ruigang Wang, Wenyi Li and B. Bagen where use Weibull probability distribution models to forecast the wind speed.





Having the knowledge of the limited classic literature that is available and useful for this kind of forecasting it was necessary to entrepreneur in this new field using the statistics tools that are around us, we have heard that the universe has an equilibrium equation, natural events can be modeled in mathematics models, in the same way market behavior can be modeled too, using statistical tools like Bayes

Manufacturing of high technology products like computer is an exacting business were the supply chain as we as industrial engineers know must be synchronize optimizing the information and materials flow, no all the times this job is easy, in this particular case the demand of computer parts is a very complex, because no matter if computers is an exacting business, computers parts business is very complex because it depends of the life cycle of the part and the obsolescence of the part in this case Sun Microsystems Inc is a vendor of computer products that it is fettered to the supply chain

In order to have an idea of the type of market behavior that we they are dealing with it appear in the next graphics.



Fig. 1. Demands

Where the solid lines present de demands, the horizontal axe represent the financial planning periods of roughly one months duration, we can see how demand`s behavior depends of the life cycle and obsolescence, short life cycles means that the individuals parts frequently do not have sufficient observed demand values to support reliable extrapolation, Bayesian model take in account predictive conditionals, life cycle curves, uncorrelated errors, auto correlated errors, scale factors, priors parameters, distributions of parts demand, estimation, the Bayesian model requires an investment of $10.000 USD due that is an heuristic algorithm of 482 forecast each one has 4000 iterations in the Gibbs Sampler so are required 16 computers processors, this model describes the behavior of the demand better than classic forecast methods, its limited for this kind of demands that depends of life cycles and obsolescence, it has a investment but the forecasting is a vital tool in the planning so for giants vendors like in this case this new forecasting method is a very good option.

In a unsustainable world like our world where oil provides us with the major percent of our energy demands, worlds population is around 6.000.000 and in 2050 it is forecasted that will be around 9.000.000, we consume more energy than the energy that the planet is able to provide, so in this point of time is essential to look alternative ways to produce energy, since many years ago those alternative methods exist but are far away to be compared with the oil energy, is too less efficient and is more expensive, so oil energy still being the best option, taking in account that oil is a non renewable resource, alternative methods needs to be improved, in this paper develop a forecasting method to forecast the winds speed, wind energy is a variable energy source that, the power output of a wind turbine generator (WTG) unit fluctuates with the wind speed variations, existing forecasting methods presents significant errors in the forecast what make no reliable to analyze power networks impact, so in this paper present an improved probability method based on Weibull distribution, with two parameters Weibull fit with the actual wind speed perfectly. Although there are only two parameters on Weibull distribution, the wind model is very sensitive two those parameters, so if the parameters are designed with the proper accuracy the wind speed forecasting model can represent the actual speed variation.

Fig. 2. Probabilities density function

This paper improves existing Weibull method combining the mean wind speed and standard deviation method with the maximum likehood method, and wind speed is modeled as a random variable with a Weibull distribution. It also compare time series methods like AR(p) and MA(q) with the new method that is proposed, the accuracy of this method is significant better than the other ones, obviously every forecast includes a natural errors, the wind variation change the behavior depending of annual period, season period and diurnal period, we can see the comparison of the methods in each period in the next table.

majority of the cases, in this two reviews the new forecasting methods will help in the company evolution, will save a lot of money, will increase the utilities, will optimize alternative energies, will help to save the world etc. V. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This paper was supported by Universidad Del Norte, Ing. Daniel Romero and Ing. Carlos Paternina that provides us with the knowledge in classic forecasting methods and always emphasized us to investigate in the new methods.



[1] Phillip M. Yelland, Bayesian forecasting of parts demand, International Journal of [1] Forecasting, Volume 26, Issue 2, Special Issue: Bayesian Forecasting in Economics, April-June 2010, Pages 374396, ISSN 0169-2070, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.11.001.

Chart 1. Comparison of methods [2] Ruigang Wang; Wenyi Li; Bagen, B.; , "Development of Wind Speed Forecasting Model Based on the Weibull Probability Distribution," Computer Distributed Control and Intelligent Environmental Monitoring (CDCIEM), 2011 International Conference on , vol., no., pp.2062-2065, 19-20 Feb. 2011 doi: 10.1109/CDCIEM.2011.333

Improved method has smaller errors in each period, what means that is describing and forecasting the winds speed variation better than the other methods, accurate wind speed forecasting are necessaries in the network energy planning on a wind energy station so this new methods are very useful in the industry.



Forecasting methods need to be developed in the same rate and time that the new markets behavior is appearing, classic methods are good backgrounds when a forecasting its necessary but are not useful in a lot of cases where the behavior of the data is particular of the case like in this paper cases, knowledge is a continuos in the universe, several times the change resistance difficult the implementation of new methods that are better in the

Scheduling methods applied to flowshop production systems

Luis Arteta, Jos Castellanos, Jos Fragozo, Eliana Muoz Dept. Of Industrial Engineering, Universidad Del Norte Barranquilla, COLOMBIA

Abstract- Nowadays technology increases in an exponential rate that is only overcome by our ambition of keep growing, there are some multinational companies that manage more money than some little countries, geographic borders are being replaced with economic borders, the whole planet is globalized markets, to be in the competition companies need to plan, control and program the operations including obviously production that is the vertebral column of the supply chain, logical algorithms are good tools when a scheduling is necessary but are not the bests, there are too many ways to set up a productive system and logical algorithms are optimal for only specific setups.

that, in this paper we are going to review the paper A Weight-Based Multiobjective Genetic Algorithm for Flowshop Scheduling published by Zhimin Fang where develop as the name says a Multiobjective Genetic Algorithm for Flowshop Scheduling (WBMOGA). II. AWEIGHT-BASED MULTIOBJECTIVE GENETIC ALGORITHM FOR FLOWSHOP SCHEDULING



Big companies that manage thousands of references, hundreds of clients and hundreds of vendors with different features can deal with more than one problem at the same time, multiobjetive algorithms, this heuristic algorithm in particular start searching for all the possible solutions, lets review the example that appear on the paper, there is flowshop problem with 20 jobs and 10 machines, the information is on the next table.

Flowshop scheduling is one of the most well-known scheduling problems. Since Johnsons work, that create and algorithm that has his name and works to minimize the makespan and is optimal for 2 machines setup, various scheduling criteria have been considered, the some of the most well-known are makespan, maximum tardiness, maximum flowtime and total flowtime. Some researchers extended singleobjective flowshop scheduling problems to multiobjective problems. Logical algorithms only take in account one objective, and in a lot of simple situations works perfectly, however in industrial world the majority of situations are not as simple as


The algorithm in this case will stop once evaluate 48600 possible solutions, algorithm start comparing pairs of solutions, and start trying with the all possible combinations, if a solution dominate the other is better, and is saving the best options, once it finish only the 10 better options are the potential solutions and the it choose the best one.



[1] Zhimin Fang;, "A Weight-Based Multiobjective Genetic Algorithm for Flowshop Scheduling," Artificial Intelligence and Computational Intelligence, 2009. AICI '09. International Conference on , vol.1, no., pp.373-377, 7-8 Nov. 2009 doi: 10.1109/AICI.2009.130



Scheduling methods needs to be applied according to the situations complexity, classic methods are good backgrounds when a scheduling its required however are not optimal in all scenarios, even can give us wrong solutions in some cases, scheduling is a powerful tool to ordinate works in a company in order to raise the objective, or like in this case the objectives with this multiobjetives algorithm, heuristic algorithms require tools like powerful computers that maybe will be a significant investment but the results compensates the investment, that is sure, a scheduled company is a competitive company that has a perfect equilibrium with the vendors, the clients and itself.



This paper was supported by Universidad Del Norte, Ing. Daniel Romero and Ing. Carlos Paternina that provides us with the knowledge in classic scheduling methods and always emphasized us to investigate in the new methods.