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Ecological Economics 38 (2001) 423– 440 www.elsevier.

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ANALYSIS

A village-level economic model of land clearing, grazing, and wood harvesting for sub-Saharan Africa: with a case study in southern Senegal
Prem L. Sankhayan, Ole Hofstad *
, Department of Forest Sciences, Agricultural Uni6ersity of Norway, PO Box 5044, 1432 As, Norway Received 26 September 2000; received in revised form 21 February 2001; accepted 26 March 2001

Abstract A village-level dynamic, stochastic, and non-linear programming model, incorporating both economic and ecological aspects, is developed to study the complex woodland degradation processes in the sub-Saharan Africa. The emphasis is on simultaneous accounting of the effects of three major causes of woodland degradation, namely, land clearing, grazing, and extraction done for wood fuel, poles and charcoal, that has not been attempted before. The model is applied at the village level in Senegal and run for the period 1999– 2020. By running different model scenarios, a number of hypotheses are tested about woodland degradation as measured through loss of vegetative biomass per unit of land. While demographic pressure was found to aggravate the woodland degradation processes, introduction of improved agricultural technology, higher cotton prices, increased rural wages, and reduced charcoal prices were found to retard the process of degradation. On the basis of the findings of this study, therefore, the role of policy makers in devising appropriate demographic and economic policies to retard the process of woodland degradation appears to be important in the sub-Saharan African nations with conditions similar to those found in Senegal. © 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Charcoal; Dynamic programming; Grazing; Land clearing; Senegal; Vegetative biomass; Woodland degradation

1. Introduction An ideal forest or woodland1 degradation model should be capable of analyzing the dynam1 Pratt et al. (1966) define woodland as a stand of trees up to 18 m high with a canopy cover of 20 – 80%, while White (1983) defines it more restrictively as a stand of trees with a canopy from 8 to 20 m in height, which covers at least 40% of the surface.

* Corresponding author. Tel.: + 47-64-948929; fax: +4764-948890. E-mail address: ole.hofstad@isf.nlh.no (O. Hofstad).

0921-8009/01/$ - see front matter © 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. PII: S 0 9 2 1 - 8 0 0 9 ( 0 1 ) 0 0 1 8 9 - 6

an individual village (area around a village habitation) is considered a unit. Such a process. and non-linear programming model of woodland degradation A dynamic. Besides. it attempts to develop a village-level economic model for analyzing the woodland degradation processes in sub-Saharan Africa and then applies it to a specific situation in Senegal. The present study is a response to such a challenge. stochastic. livestock grazing. and socio-economic variables. It should enable us to investigate the impacts of changing policy alternatives and exogenous assumptions over a broad range of physical. can be better described as degradation rather than deforestation. therefore. For example. in the southern Senegal. permanently or at least effective for an extended period of time. 1997) or forest degradation. a number of natural resources are still managed at the community level (Demsetz. Deforestation is generally taken to mean an abrupt removal of all. 1993). biological. has been more intensively researched and analyzed (Kaimowitz and Angelsen.1. 1987. Field. 2. Palo. Salient features of the model In sub-Saharan Africa. Dynamic. The model permits the use of feed back. Deforestation. does not account for qualitative changes reflecting loss of species.. and degradation processes occur at an aggregate level rather than at a single household level. An application of the model to a village in Senegal has been presented as an example. O. 2. Hofstad / Ecological Economics 38 (2001) 423–440 ics of systems behavior in its entirety. the model is specially designed for application in the context of sub-Saharan African countries. still remain a great challenge to economists. like a region or country. however. namely. The ultimate aim of these models is to help identify policy options for keeping the woodland/forest degradation processes within defined goals of sustainability. spread over a fairly large and continuous area. 1998). FAO. Saxena et al. only a portion rather than all of the vegetation is often removed while converting the woodland areas into cultivated land. dynamic model of woodland to degradation). Modeling at a macro level. Development and empirical use of such models. strong family relations in African communities may render labor and capital constraints and risk less binding at household level than at the community level (Barbier. There is hardly any unanimity on the precise definition of deforestation (Lanly. The modeling approach holds a great promise for analyzing dynamic complex degradation processes. The usefulness of the model lies in its ability not only to incorporate non-linear and stochastic behavior. there is a common practice of only one or two families assuming responsibility for grazing and looking after the entire herd of livestock owned by all households in the village. Sankhayan. charcoal and poles. 1996).L. but also to incorporate simultaneously the main activities of woodland degradation. 1967. which can be visualized from individual household point of view to a national or international level. By incorporating the biological processes and socio-economic relations characteristic of the region. and extractions for fuel wood. or nearly all. Sjaastad. 1982. 1989. is beset with serious problems of aggregation and heterogeneity arising due to geographical variations. 1998) than the more subtle and complex process of forest degradation. 1993. 3 In many African countries. biomass density and changes in species. stochastic. time-delayed and other types of complex biological and economic relations.424 P. forest or woodland degradation is often taken to refer to a quantitative (woody biomass) and/or qualitative2 (species) loss of vegetation cover over a long time within the forest. being a relatively simpler concept. therefore. thus causing gradual reduction in production capacity (FAO. however. tree density. . including Senegal. 2 This study. and non-linear programming model has been developed for analyzing the woodland degradation processes (to be referred to later as DMWD. clearing of land for cultivation. tree cover (or woody biomass) from forests or woodlands. non-linear. The degradation process can be monitored in terms of crown cover. For the purpose of analyzing open woodland degradation in this model. Contrary to this.

soap. and miscellaneous products (beer and bricks). Having met the foregoing objectives. crops. Land use is determined by distance (the average of the minimum and maximum distances of a site from the village settlement) and transport cost from the center of the village. and social ceremonies. households are assumed to follow a satisfying approach (Simon. labor employment. Other competition with neighboring villages over land use is not modeled. namely. Each site is further divided into cropland and woodland (representing land used for both grazing and extraction of forest produce). exceeding sustainable use levels. wood fuel. but more peripheral grazing land/open woodland will be a common property. It is important for the African rural households to plan their resources in a way to prevent the incomes from falling below a certain minimum level during the years with abnormal weather conditions. O. such as production. this is taken account of by the villagers in their planning of animal production. Thus. The model assumes the existence of social control mechanisms and a central authority. The sites are discrete and assume homogeneous land suitability/productivity. transport. Hofstad / Ecological Economics 38 (2001) 423–440 425 In order to approximate the real world conditions more closely. Suitability of each site for different activities is known. animal products. the model also accounts for the leisure time by using a wage rate for the unused family labor equivalent to its opportunity cost. The entire village. each site is a ‘black box’ with a total stock of biomass accumulated/degraded as the net result of regeneration and exploitation. trading (sale and purchase of products and inputs). Next in the hierarchy is the objective of meeting the minimum cash needs of households for necessities. are modeled by means of alternative discount rates. at the end of the planning horizon. Sankhayan. such as clothing. Besides various activities. forest products (fodder. intensive cropping. Collective time preferences. and miscellaneous products like beer and bricks. range land (livestock grazing). which may reduce woodland area or .. Each village co-ordinates land use to ensure that it is economically optimal at any time. structural and accounting equations. Cropland is likely to be a private property. If nomadic herders or others use grazing land in the village. At the first level of hierarchy are objectives related to fulfillment of minimum consumption of cereal crops. The model incorporates four sets of activities. and income. education. A number of objectives are sought to be attained in a hierarchy.L. Each village is portrayed using a modified vonThunen model. livestock.g. with land use sites proceeding outwards from the center of the village in the following order: settlement. salt. The model incorporates three major processes responsible for woodland clearing or degradation: (a) the expansion of cropping.P. Fuel wood for external sale is cut by the villagers. These objectives account for both the market forces as well as household preferences. Making contingencies in the household plans to face risk and uncertainty due particularly to drought or excessive rainfall is probably the next in the hierarchy of objectives. Land use in a given year is determined by the optimum allocation of labor force (net of hired in and hired out) among a variety of competing uses. medical care. the households are finally assumed to maximize the present value of net cash flows resulting from the activities undertaken. and the production of consumption requirements and income generation by supplying products to markets outside the village. the objective function finally maximized represents a proxy for utility function of the village community. Woodland degradation is assumed to occur when removals exceed net sustainable yield of vegetation and is measured as a reduction of vegetative biomass density. consistent with their perception of sustainability. and open woodland (fuel wood collection). including the stock of animals and trees. Effectively. cooking oil. rather than the individual household. The model does not indicate where degradation will occur precisely within each site. and not by outsiders. The households seek to ensure some minimum levels of stock of livestock and trees. consumption. and charcoal). 1952). e. forest products like fuel wood and charcoal. Each set of activities was further divided into sub-sets. Demand and supply relationships for these sectors are linked through behavioral. is regarded as the welfare optimizing entity.

Growth of 6egetation. Chidumayo. Fuel wood extraction is a function of distance required for traveling to the site and the stock of tree vegetation there. Given the production functions (yields) and technological improvements for different crops. Growth rates of prices. yields.1. and sale decisions are made simultaneously by the households. 2. and vegetative biomass of bush and trees are also determined outside the model. Withdrawals from each are accounted for separately. Yields of different crop and non-crop activities. initial stock of bush and tree vegetative biomass. namely. Analytical description of the dynamic model of woodland degradation A simple flow diagram to describe the DMWD is used (Fig. often spread over decades and centuries. livestock. prices of inputs and outputs.2. (b) the level of animal grazing.2. such as stock of vegetative biomass and human and animal populations. and high rainfall years. acti6ities. Conversion of woodlands into cropland is assumed to reduce the vegetative biomass to the level found in the existing fields. New land from woodlands can be cleared as determined by economic factors along 2. The degradation process is represented through a decrease in vegetative biomass per unit of (the same or decreased) woodland area over time. with labor availability constraints. loss due to forest fires.2.L. The concepts of activities and constraints are also elaborated. 2. population growth in the village. determined by such factors as wider population growth. 1993). and constraints This section gives more details about some of the vital relations. This study uses a Bertalanffy (1957) growth model. trees. In exceptional cases like the widely quoted Machakos case in Kenya (Tiffen et al.2.g. the duration makes it difficult to monitor the process in a short time. 2. Fresh weight of stem and branches down to 5 cm diameter of old-growth miombo . Flow diagram for the model Human population and economic factors. initial number of livestock and the grazing requirements of animals for vegetation. are assumed to have three main vegetative layers. and the leisure time. forest. the production.. and grasses/crops. and grazing of animals and feeding them on tree and bush tops. Production level of crop. prices.1. Hofstad (1997) presents some evidence from a number of studies about growth of biomass in miombo woodland (see. are some of the important exogenously determined variables. Vital relations. incomes. and other products. Sankhayan. in pristine or degraded form. bushes. Open woodlands. low. 1988. determine the demand functions for various factors and products and the cash requirements for basic household necessities. and the distribution of normal. This is a dynamic and gradual process. cutting of trees for wood fuel and charcoal making. Thus. and (c) the rate of wood removal. Hofstad / Ecological Economics 38 (2001) 423–440 tree density directly or displace grazing from former grazing land.426 P.. discount rates. the process may also run in the opposite direction representing regeneration rather than degradation. as are regeneration/growth rates.2. the model accounts for partial removal of vegetation rather than its total loss. consumption. along with expected yields during each period. O. 1994). and miscellaneous activities. Grazing losses are assumed to be proportional to the stock of vegetative biomass available in each site and land category. Four underlying processes are considered. e. which is followed by a detailed explanation of different relations. 1). and external market demand. Degradation is estimated in terms of density of vegetative biomass in each site at various times. It was estimated from measurements conducted for a number of years in eight plots close to Morogoro in Tanzania. progress in agricultural technology. livestock.2. individual demand for different products and cash requirements. and climatic variations. Woodland degradation occurs when the vegetative biomass regeneration is overtaken by the losses due to one or more of the following three activities: clearing of new lands for cultivation. woodland and crop area and vegetative biomass of bushes and trees are determined endogenously within the model. prices and coefficients of elasticity of demand.

Analytical framework for explaining the DMWD. 1994) was measured. and therefore. 1. . j )+ h[1− e{ − i·BM(t.P. at the ith site and in jth land category. Although the undifferentiated Sudanian woodland in southern Senegal (White. j ) stands for tons of woody biomass per hectare during time t. O. j )}]3. Sankhayan.i. i.i.L. The parameters h and i are different for upland and lowland areas as well as for areas not suited for cultivation.i. 1983). the values of the parameters should have been estimated on Senegalese material in order to make fully realistic predictions. the form of the equation may be suitable. j) = BM(t. repre- Fig. The biological growth function used for biomass of trees in this model is as follows: BM(t +1. Hofstad / Ecological Economics 38 (2001) 423–440 427 (Ek. where BM(t. 1983) is somewhat similar in appearance to the Zambezian miombo woodland in Tanzania (White. The accounting function for the total woody biomass during tth time period at ith site.

grasses and herbs do not have similar growth functions. Similar functions are used for the bushes.m)= RWP · WDM(m) · P(t). One cannot rule out the possibility of some sensitive African ecosystems being permanently deforested or degraded as a result of cultivation. Sankhayan.2. Consequently. but these cases are assumed to be few. land area.a) − LIVSOLD(t.a)+ LIVPUR(t. in areas that have been used as refugee camps and later abandoned. j ) −% BMUA(t. its growth and migration. charcoal making.i.g. deforestation has been defined as a long-term change.2. the level and growth rate of animal populations are crucial to the degradation model. Human population.i.i. −% XFPT(t.a)+ LIMP(t. Biomass loss due to woodland clearing for cultivation is accounted for through the reduced area under woodlands. 2. j )·LAND(i. The accounting functions for livestock population pertaining to the village can be written as: LIVPOP(t + 1. and immigration and emigration. wood extraction for fuel. (P(t)). IM and EM. ‘j’ refers to land category.a) −LEMP(t. where l. grazing or wood harvesting. brewing and brick making). O. biomass used by animals (both for grazing and stall feeding). j ) j j is represented by the following equation: P(t)= P(0) · (1+ l)t + IM(t)− EM(t).a) = LIVPOP(t.3. both as exogenous variables. stand for the total woody biomass.428 P. and vegetative biomass lost due to fire. This often happens even in areas that have been considered deforested and used as cropland for many years. Because of their annual nature. biomass loss due to collection of wood (for fuel.i. The total population of the village during year t is obtained by summing the population of the households. livestock population time periods livestock type livestock born (net of livestock died) LIVPUR livestock purchased LIVSOLD livestock sold LIVSLT livestock slaughtered LIMP livestock immigration into the area LEMP livestock emigration out of the area . numerous examples from various parts of Africa showing that a succession of vegetation recovery starts if degraded woodlands are left undisturbed for some time. charcoal and poles and forest fires. availability of labor during tth year and mth month is found out as follows: LABOR(t. The growth rate of population and immigration and emigration are treated exogenous to the model. Animal population. respectively. These figures were used as resource availability coefficients in the human labor constraints in the model. In the foregoing section. There are. Deforestation. stand for average annual percent growth rate.L. XFPT and LFIRE. is frequently regarded as a permanent or irreversible change.2.a). however. and non-existing in the region of our case study. is represented by the following equation: TBM(t. no attempt was made to model any lower threshold of vegetation density below which the growth of vegetation becomes negative. LAND.a)− LIVSLT(t.a)+ LIVBR(t. e. Abbreviations in the above equation are as follows: LIVPOP t a LIVBR 2. Like the human population.2. The population during time period t. its growth and migration.i ) = % BMi (t. Hofstad / Ecological Economics 38 (2001) 423–440 senting net losses for the entire village due to animal grazing. j j TBM. and even vegetation degradation. BMUA. j ) −% LFIRE(t. respectively. j ).2. Given the ratio of workers to total population (RWP) and average working days per month (WDM).

all other variables are endogenous to the model. Acti6ities used in the model. and woodland area suitable for clearing at each land site were also included. during the initial period and LIMP and LEMP. expressed in year equivalent TLUs. fertilized or non-fertilized. clothing. labor availability constraints (man equivalent days) are considered according to months.4. Land available for cultivation during the current period is the land available for cultivation in the previous period and the land cleared during the current period. There exists a provision in the model to supplement the land through land clearing from the woodlands subject to a further constraint of total land suitable for such purpose at each site. LIMP and LEMP. O. education. Some calculating equations are incorporated for the woodland. limited hiring out of labor during certain months is also incorporated.L. a balance equation for each commodity requires that ‘production+ purchase− consumption− sale’ should be equal to zero during each period. cropland and land area cleared. The model is assumed to meet the minimum level of cash requirements for different purposes. forest. labor. Some of the other activities included in the model relate to borrowing of working capital.2. Households make decisions under a number of constraints faced by them on the availability of land. Thus. Sankhayan. It accounts for repaying capacity of the village households. For example. Forest and miscellaneous activities have been considered on a monthly basis. and vegetative biomass due to bushes and trees in the woodland and cropland at each site. Constraints in the model. Besides. purchase of animals. The availability of working capital during the current period is assumed not to exceed the cash surplus generated during the previous year that can be supplemented through borrowing at the current rate of interest. fertilizers. Since human labor continues to be an important resource in areas where not much of modern agricultural inputs are yet used. extraction of forest products and forest fires. Amount of fertilizer purchased is determined solely by profitability considerations subject to availability of cash for the purpose. sale. It also serves as an intermediate (complementary) activity for producing wood fuel that results in loss of vegetative biomass. expressed as tropical livestock units (TLU). Constraints relating to livestock carrying capacity. Thus. remaining stock of vegetative biomass in the woodlands at the end of the model period. Hofstad / Ecological Economics 38 (2001) 423–440 429 Except for LIVPOP. and the need to meet the minimum cash requirements. maize growing constitutes a number of activities depending upon the site and land category. Land clearing activities are incorporated separately for each site to allow for addition of new land for cultivation from woodland area. purchase of different types of fertilizers. loss of vegetative biomass due to grazing. . consumption. The level of consumption activity is assumed to be equal to annual demand per head times the village population. 2. Though this is provided for each of the 12 months. Loss due to forest fires was treated as a fixed proportion of the stock of vegetative biomass during the previous year. sugar. Constraints on land availability during each of the 12 months according to sites and land categories are used. help account for the effect of vegetative biomass withdrawals made by animals owned by seasonal herders passing through the village during certain months of the year. medicines.2. A number of activities for production. Constraints are provided for different types of fertilizers requiring that their use should not exceed the amount purchased. and purchase are used for the crop. Depending upon the availability of employment opportunities in or around the village. the hiring is expected to take place only during the peak labor use months. animal. no carry over from one period to another is assumed.5. such as salt. The model provides for labor hiring for all production activities when profitable. leisure time is assumed to have a positive opportunity cost. and miscellaneous products. 2.2. working capital. The households are assumed to have a reserve wage rate below which they would prefer leisure to work.2. The crop growing activities were considered in a detailed way. etc.P. etc.

Site II is surrounded by Site I. j )/WS). Hofstad / Ecological Economics 38 (2001) 423–440 2. The choice of discount rates can be crucial due to sensitivity of activities for introduction in the optimal plan. i. yield risk due to weather continues to be important in Africa. Site II constitutes the area surrounding the village habitation with little potential for clearing of new land and extraction of vegetative biomass through fuel wood. Since prices are assumed constant during the planning period (except for those modified as part of different model scenarios).. O. Such a coefficient for a unit of crop area (LABCROP). Finally. It is unlikely that this preference for land use will change in the future unless engineering structures used for the construction of houses undergo a major change or the forest fires are brought under complete control. Though used only to a limited extent in specific model scenarios.m) = CFM(i.L. Of the different types of risks. all the years within the planning horizon of the model were divided into normal. it has the greatest potential in . and high rainfall years. DISTLAND and WS stand for work hours per day. the yields of different crops were accordingly adjusted for yield variations over the years.fc. Inclusion of risk helps making the model more realistic. Such a decision on the part of the village serves as a safeguard against the risk of forest fire engulfing the village habitation. This study makes use of a discounting rate of 5% per annum. and walking speed in kilometers per hour. collecting fuel wood and making of charcoal.430 P. there exists a provision for changing the prices of agricultural inputs.2. considered as the most important component of risk. The coefficients of labor use (CFM(i. fcth fertilized category and mth month. 3. On the basis of probabilities of their occurrence. lower than the nominal rate of interest due to inflation. Next to Site II from the village habitation lies Site I. Being relatively closer to the village habitation. distance of the piece of cultivated land in kilometers. Sankhayan.m) · WHD/(WHD − 2 · DISTLAND(i. It is used not only for cropping. the discount rate is a real one. Yield reduction coefficients due to low or excessive rainfall during the cropgrowing season for each crop activity were as- sessed with the help of local people and the agricultural scientists working in the area.3. This village is located 20 km from the main provincial town of Velingara in southern Senegal. Besides containing a large cultivated area. and grazing. except in a model scenario where it was increased up to 30%. a worker is implicitly assumed to engage in the same activity at a given site during the whole day. Application of the model – results from a Senegalese village The DMWD will now be applied to analyze woodland degradation in Lambatara village. and WHD. and consumption goods over the planning horizon.e. Thus. The village had four land sites. a hectare. the model accounts for the behavior of stochastic crop yields only. Some important attributes of different sites are given in Table 1. Except for a short stretch of the boundary of Site II directly touching Site III. is: LABCROP(i. For this equation to work well.fc. this site is occupied by woodlands.c. low. A few other aspects of the model Technological changes are mainly reflected through improvements in yields of crops and use of fertilizers.fc. but also for livestock grazing. where CFM is the unadjusted coefficient of labor use at the ith site for cth crop. charcoal making.c. farm products. This site has been traditionally used for growing maize crop so as to ensure that the immediate surroundings of the village habitation remain free from any dry vegetation during the months when the incidences of forest fire are more frequent.m)) for different production activities were adjusted to reflect variations due to distance of site from home and the walking speed.c. The losses of vegetative biomass due to grazing are based on total digestible nutrient requirements of livestock after making an allowance for fodder obtained from crop residues.

millets and groundnut) 2. and charcoal making. forest and other mis- cellaneous products and generates direct pressure on woodlands for clearing more land for cultivation. 3. Site III is predominantly a woodland area and is used for grazing. The land area is not suitable for cultivation of crops. 1985. grazing. livestock. One variable was modified at a time.1. cotton. 1996). cotton. Site IV is relatively a small area currently under vegetation. Hofstad / Ecological Economics 38 (2001) 423–440 Table 1 Attributes of different sites in village Lambatara.5 0 0 0 2250 0 0 0 1 Same as above Same as above the future for extension of the existing cropping area through clearing of new land from the woodlands. Grazing 3.50 6. Palo. Fuel wood extraction. Choice of alternate model scenarios Including the base run for calibrating the DMWD. A number of multi-country empirical studies using regression models have shown strong and positive impact of population pressure on deforestation (Allen and Barnes. E1: Increase in the prices of crops.4 431 100 375 100 2000 62. but it is recognized that combined modifications of more than one variable might have been of equal interest. fuel wood collection. Some studies at country level too have reached similar conclusions (Shitindi. Rock. 1996) or woodland degradation. It has the potential for clearing of new lands and growing of different crops in the future. the model was run under the seven alternate scenarios listed in Table 2. animal. Crop growing (maize. T1: Technological change in agriculture and the resulting income growth slow down the processes of deforestation and woodland degradation. Woodland degradation is probably affected in the same way as deforestation. 1994. grazing. Sankhayan. Most statistical studies have failed to provide conclusive evidence with respect to the impact of technological change in agriculture either on deforestation (Rock. This makes analysis simpler. southern Senegal Attributes of sites Average distance from village habitation (km) Cropland (ha) Lowland Upland Woodland (ha) Lowland Upland Present predominant land use 1. forest. . millets and groundnut) 2. 1992. Increase in population pressure creates greater demand for crop. gathering wood fuel and charcoal making. Fuel wood extraction.25 75 2.L. O.P. charcoal making Land suitability and preference Clearing land for crop growing Crop growing (maize) 1. 1996). Burgess. and forest product extraction resulting in woodland degradation. and other forest products. and miscellaneous products stimulates the process of clearing of new land for cultivation. charcoal making Clearing land for crop growing Fuel wood extraction and grazing Site I 7 Site II 1 Site III 10 Site IV 0. It is thus difficult to make a priori expectation about the validity of this hypothesis. Grazing 3. Crop growing (maize. The selection of the alternate scenarios was guided by the objective of testing the following five specific hypotheses: P1: Woodland degradation is aggravated by increased demographic pressure.

Labor being the most important of all the inputs for clearing new lands in sub-Saharan Africa. Changes in the base model scenario The cropped area under the base scenario was 20. i. Angelsen et al. Variations in discount rates. Barbier and Burgess. fuel wood collection. Hofstad / Ecological Economics 38 (2001) 423–440 It is a widely held assumption that increased agricultural output prices render frontier agriculture more profitable. O. this hypothesis may not be rejected.1. the DMWD was run for a period of 22 years. Ferraro and Kramer (1994) refer to ‘poverty paradox’. therefore.3. to collect more wood fuel.. animal. 1994. needs to clearly understand that changes in prices of a wide variety of goods included under the E1 hypothesis need not produce identical effects. Although it is possible to discuss the results in detail according to different land sites and categories. and miscellaneous products produced. It is well known that the poor tend to discount more heavily than others.. and make Table 2 Brief description of different scenarios for running the model of forest degradation Serial number Model scenario Distinguishing (abbreviation used) characteristics of the model scenario BASE ATECH Existing data Fertilizer use for major crops is introduced Population growth rate is increased from 1. area under crops. The results were compared in terms of cultivated and woodland area in each site. and charcoal making. 1 2 3 GRPOP 3. however. Panayotou and Sungsuwan. Larson (1994) has provided a good conceptual model for the understanding of such household behavior. number of livestock. 1999). 3.5% to 3% per annum Discount rate is increased from 5% to 30% per annum Charcoal prices are decreased by 3. including greater clearing of woodland area for cultivation. forest and other activities. can be used for testing this hypothesis somewhat indirectly. E2: Higher rural wages result in reduced woodland degradation by lowering the levels of new land clearing. quantity of wood fuel and charcoal extracted. This study uses such an indirect approach.e.5% per annum more charcoal. On the basis of evidence available (Elnagheeb and Bromley. E1 hypothesis may not be rejected.3. One.L. 1994. 4 DISCF 5 CHARCP 6 WAGER 7 COTP 3.2. and sold. The impact of rural poverty on deforestation and forest degradation continues to be unclear. Once the results were close to those for the initial year. E3: The process of forest degradation is enhanced by increase in rural poverty. When the rural wages are higher due to availability of off-farm employment opportunities. Changes in woodland degradation parameters under different model scenarios Changes in some of the important variables relevant for measuring the woodland degradation in the base and alternate model scenarios over the run of the model period are presented in Table 4. from 1999 to 2020. where poverty can be both a driving force as well as a constraint to degradation. Calibration of the dynamic model of woodland degradation Model calibration was performed to represent the ground realities during the initial year.44% higher in 2020 as compared to that in 1999. 1996. Sankhayan. it becomes relatively expensive to clear more woodland for cultivation. The values of some important variables in the base scenario are shown in Table 3.432 P. the discussion is restricted here to the village as a whole only.5% per annum Wage rates for hiring in and hiring out labor is increased by 5% per annum Cotton price is increased by 3. The increased incomes are expected to encourage investment in crop. purchased. .

groundnut and rice Price of charcoal Cows per household Goats per household Communaute Financiere Africaine Francs. The relative changes in the woodland degradation parameters under the alternate model scenarios. Contrary to this. The percent decline in vegetative biomass density was higher in the woodland area as compared to that in the total land area because of greater pressure due to woodland clearing. Effect on woodland clearing Fig. ´ ` % per annum Number Number % per annum Bags weighing 50 kg % per annum CFAFa per day CFAF per kg CFAF per bag (50 kg) Number Number This was the result of clearing of woodland area which declined by 2.2. such a result is not different from what can be expected. The livestock number increased by 18.5 to 3% per annum caused a faster clearing of woodland area for cultivation to meet the increased food and cash demands under the GRPOP model scenario (Table 4 and Fig. woodland area available for grazing per tropical livestock unit. grazing by animals and forest product extraction in the former case. Decline in charcoal prices and increase in wage rates. introduction of improved agricultural technology and increased prices of a cash crop. Vegetative biomass density in the total land area and woodland area (a dynamic concept in this case) declined by 9. being quite identical to those for the base scenario (Table 4). Increase in population growth rate from 1. cotton. cotton. slowed down the rate of woodland clearing.P. Since other important variables. thereby leading to an increase in requirements of vegetative biomass for animals. did not affect woodland clearing as compared to that in the base scenario. Hofstad / Ecological Economics 38 (2001) 423–440 Table 3 Values of some important variables in the base model scenario Serial number Name of the variable Units Value used in the base model scenario 5 50 16 1.51% during the same period. 125 1200 7 2 433 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 a Discount rate Households Average size of household Growth rate of population Quota on charcoal production Interest on borrowing of capital Wage rate Price of maize. clearing of more woodland area for cultivation appeared to be a natural response. being similar in their effects. The results of woodland clearing under CHARCP and WAGER model scenarios. mainly through grazing.40%. percent area under woodlands. discussion is restricted here only to the former. were held constant. 2). $1 : 650 CFAF.3. namely. cannot be seen clearly in the figure. 70. Increase in discount rate from 5 to 30% per annum led to greater land clearing under DISCF model scenario after the year 2011 as compared to that in the base scenario. particularly with respect to woodland clearing. a phe- . Since hired labor was used only for making charcoal and grazing of animals in the model and not for land clearing. millets. such as agricultural technology.50 800 20 200 75. 2 shows the cumulative woodland area (hectares) cleared between 1999 and 2020. O. There was no change in charcoal production under this model scenario because of the imposition of annual production quota.78%. 150.L. Sankhayan. 3. and biomass per unit of woodland area (biomass density) will now be discussed in the following sections. Since charcoal making is a relatively more important activity than extraction of vegetative biomass for fuel wood and poles from the woodlands. 75.44 and 12.

11) −10.08 (−0.62 (1.59) −9.86 (0.00) DISCF 27.01 (−0.00 (0.17 (−14.20 (−0.12) 18.17 (−14.97) WAGER 21. .16) 2.52) −9.45 (−0.87 (0.49 (−0. relevant for measuring woodland degradation.60) −9.51 (−0.48) −8.08 (−0.84) −13.L.64 (0.00 (0.45) −97.09 (−0.46) −97.39) 0.49 (−0.82 (−0.48) −9. Hofstad / Ecological Economics 38 (2001) 423–440 Table 4 Percent changes in some important variables.12) 18.00) CHARCP 20.85) −6.55 (−0.00 (0.29) 15.00) GRPOP 49.85) −2. during the year 2020 over those during 1999 for different model scenarios Name of variable relevant for woodland degradation Per cent change during the year 2020 over 1999 under different model scenarios BASE Cropped area Woodland area Livestock number Vegetative biomass in Woodland area Vegetative biomass in all the land area Charcoal production 20.11) −3.85) −2.79) −12.18 (0.97) COTP 6.53 (0.64 (0.00) ATECH 21.57) −7.69 (−0.83 (−0.45) 0.47 (0. Sankhayan.78) −10.79) −10.51 (−0.434 P.79 (−0.49 (−0.00) Note: Figures in the brackets are the compound growth rates per annum.48 (0.00 (0.12) 18.63) −9.40 (−0.04) 20.78) −12.47) 0.29) −0.49 (1.67) −11.68 (−0.24 (−0.38 (−0.86 (−0.35) 0. O.90) −2.44 (0.90) −2.45) 0.00 (0.87 (0.78 (0.12) 18.78 (0.

62 ha per TLU between 1999 and 2020 under each of the other scenarios. the results were almost identical for the remaining scenarios. This result may.P.4. Effect on woodland area a6ailable per unit of tropical li6estock unit Not only did the woodland area change over the run of the model. the same results could also be observed in terms of declining proportion of woodland area to total geographical area of the village under different model scenarios as presented in Fig.3. Alternately. 3. however. The woodland availability declined from 11. Fig. The effect of these changes on the grazing pressure on woodlands was examined by working out the woodland area available per tropical livestock unit over the years under each model scenario (Fig. and at a slower rate in the COTP model scenario as compared to that in the base scenario. Hofstad / Ecological Economics 38 (2001) 423–440 435 nomenon that can be explained by the ability of households to meet their food and minimum cash requirements from a smaller cropped area under both these scenarios. the woodland also showed a tendency to decline at a slightly lower rate than for the base scenario.L.45 and 9. Woodland area cleared under different model scenarios. Effect on 6egetati6e biomass per unit of woodland area Woodland degradation is manifested in terms of reduced biomass density in the woodland. which was comparatively closer to the village habitation and had a good potential for growing crops on the newly cleared lands. 2. 4). . All the land clearing in different models was restricted to Site I. Sankhayan.3. the number of livestock 3.98 ha per TLU. Under ATECH scenario. The corresponding figure for the DISCF model scenario was 10. Except for the model scenario DISCF. not be significant given the low precision of measurement and the assumptions of the model. O. Except for the COTP model scenario. The major conclusion to be drawn in this connection is that the high discounting factor of 30% per annum makes it less profitable to keep a large herd of domestic animals. 3. 5. The decrease in the number of livestock being lower than the decrease in the woodland area available for grazing resulted in a consistently increasing grazing pressure throughout the model period in all the model scenarios.3. also changed.65 to between 9. The proportion of woodland area declined at a faster rate in the GRPOP model scenario. How different model scenarios affected this parameter of woodland degradation can be seen in Fig.

In the COTP model scenario. reduces the pressure on tree biomass. (iii) While an increase in the prices of a commercial crop like cotton reduced land clearing and woodland degradation. . in turn. (ii) Technological changes in agriculture help slow down the process of woodland degradation. decrease in charcoal prices reduced charcoal production and consequently woodland degradation. This is due to the fact that clearing of more woodland for agricultural fields makes more wood available for household consumption and charcoal burning without the need to cut trees in the forest. making charcoal less attractive. Sankhayan. particularly in the woodlands. more grazing. woodland degradation proceeded at a slower pace in all scenarios as compared to that under the base scenario. Hofstad / Ecological Economics 38 (2001) 423–440 Fig. Proportion of woodland area to total area in different model scenarios. would vary from product to product.L. the vegetation growth fails to overtake the withdrawals for charcoal. Even under these model scenarios. wood fuel. 4. therefore. forest and other miscellaneous products and cash requirements of village households. particularly by reducing the need to clear new land for cultivation in order to meet the increased demand for different products. wood fuel collection and charcoal making.436 P. Due either to higher wage rates for the labor used or its lower prices. livestock. for meeting increased demand for crop. E1 hypothesis can be rejected only for increase in the prices of some crops like cotton and not for forest products like charcoal. In spite of greater woodland clearing under GRPOP model scenario. There is thus no basis to reject the hypothesis T1. Conclusions and discussion 4. O. P1 hypothesis. and poles. the process of vegetative degradation in the remaining woodland area slightly slowed down when compared with the base model scenario. therefore. The slowdown of biomass density reduction in WAGER and CHARCP model scenarios occurs as a result of increase in wage rates and decrease in charcoal prices. 3. This.1. How woodland degradation will be affected by increases in product prices. the loss of vegetative biomass was faster due to increased number of livestock necessitating more vegetative biomass extractions to meet their fodder requirements even though the woodland clearing in this case was far lower than in the base scenario and the charcoal production remained unchanged. cannot be rejected. Specific conclusions Application of the DMWD to a village in southern Senegal helps us to conclude as follows: (i) Increase in demographic pressure generates direct pressure on woodlands by way of clearing more land for cultivation.

it had a distinct effect on reducing charcoal production. legal regulation of the market. The E2 hypothesis could not be rejected. However. and thereby on reducing woodland degradation. Control of production occurring over wide areas with poor roads is expensive. (v) The increase of discount rate from 5% to 30% per annum resulted in faster clearing of woodland for agricultural cultivation. adjustment of royalties according to inflation and getting all producers to pay royalties. Introduction of improved agricultural technology would also help sustaining the woodland resources of African countries with conditions similar to those found in Senegal. Sankhayan. and the cost must be compared to the additional present value of the optimal time path of harvesting. there are many practical difficulties implementing this policy. There are no clear indications that poverty may lead to greater woodland degradation as hypothesized under E3. 4. General conclusions and discussion One may ask in what way our study deals with the causes of deforestation and degradation since there has been quite some discussion about what really causes deforestation in the tropics (Brown and Pearce. However. Angelsen and Kaimowitz. The same problem applies to more direct. We have no basis on which to conclude whether such regulations can be implemented cost effectively at the village level.g. The imposition of royalties as a stumpage price for fuel wood harvested from public land has been attempted for many years in several African countries. 1994. However. The term deforestation seems to have been Fig. Thereby grazing pressure was not increased although woodland area for grazing is reduced faster than at the low rate of discount.2. e. 4.L. an activity for which such labor was being used. Scientifically fixed quota restrictions on charcoal production and control of forest fires also appear as policy options that can help controlling the degradation of vegetation in the woodlands. the number of livestock did not increase nearly as fast. Hofstad / Ecological Economics 38 (2001) 423–440 437 (iv) The effect of an increase in rural wages could not be tested in case of woodland clearing as no such labor was being used for this purpose in the study village. However. O.P. Application of DMWD highlights the importance of demographic and economic policies for keeping the woodland degradation processes under check. Woodland area per TLU under different model scenarios. the most serious problem is whether the benefits of reduced consumption of bio-energy are actually higher than the cost of government intervention.. 1999). but poverty seems to lead to faster deforestation. It obviously shifts the supply curve upwards. .

In this article. 1991. Sankhayan. 1994. market distortions (Pearce. The DMWD does not include these mechanisms. population growth seems to lead both to deforestation and woodland degradation even with introduction of . where charcoal competes with electricity and cooking gas has not been modeled. and that this growing population will either live off the resources available at the village itself. 1996).438 P. that is something the villagers must take as given. Angelsen and ´ Kaimowitz (1999) also distinguish between ‘underlying and immediate’ causes. Given this latter assumption. however. The model includes the most important resources that are available to the village.. 1996). skewed distribution of income and wealth. Angelsen and Kaimowitz (1999) would call the decision-makers agents of deforestation. It is an open question.g. Hofstad / Ecological Economics 38 (2001) 423–440 Fig. it has been assumed that there will be continued population growth in the village. Palo. Our intention is to represent most realistically the situation actually confronting the villagers.L. i. If the state is unable to subsidize gas. thereby keeping the consumption of charcoal high. Our basic assumption is that the villagers are the subjects who make decisions on how to manipulate the environment and how to use available resources. If deforestation (in the sense that forest is cleared completely of all vegetation for agriculture) and forest degradation (reduced biomass density per unit of land area) follow from the decisions made by the villagers. 5. 1983). and the weakness of the African state (Hyden. and the most important relationships between the prices of factors and products and the decisions made by the village community. e. these factors are considered as constants in the model. Rock. Vegetative biomass per unit of woodland area. used imprecisely in the discussion of both proper deforestation and forest degradation. Population growth is one underlying cause of deforestation that has been pointed out in numerous studies (Kimsey. whether the welfare maximizing behavior of the villagers is the cause of deforestation – or rather the circumstances that they find themselves in. Consequently. or unable to tax exploitation of natural woodlands. both being different from the agents of deforestation. but also debated (Angelsen and Kaimowitz. O. those decisions may be seen as the cause of deforestation (or degradation). the urban market for energy. or take up jobs at the going rural wages.e. 1999). The latter has to do with what Palo (1987) calls the ‘underlying causes of deforestation’.

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