Researchers' Workshop on Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific

Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines

Cyclone, Coastal Society and Migration:

Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh
Bishawjit Mallick Institute of Regional Science (IfR), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany

DISCLAIMER: The views State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its KIT University of the expressed in this paper are the BoardNational Research Center of the Helmholtz Association ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any of Governors, or the governments they represent. consequence of their use. The countries listed in this paper do not imply any view on ADB's part as to sovereignty or independent status or necessarily conform to ADB's

www.ifr.kit.edu

Content
Background context
Knowledge base and Research Question Cyclone Aila

Empirical Note
Study area Methods applied

Findings
Basic facts of empirical survey Who, where and when moves out social clusters analysis Consequences of moving out social structural, bondage and relationship

Discussion and Conclusion

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Research Workshop Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific 14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines

Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany

Knowledge Base & Research Question

More than 26 million people of Bangladesh are likely to migrate to urban areas due to extreme poverty and displacement due to natural hazards (Myers, 2002) 2 of each 5 households in rural Bangladesh move from their original villages due to an economic pull (Afsar 2003)
Address Social Exclusion or Inclusion Changes in SOCIAL STRUCTURE

Disasters and chronic environmental degradation Population Movement (Hunter 2005, Ponchelet et al. 2010) push and pull environmental push and economic pull

How a cyclone affect on peoples livelihood and the socioeconomic transformation of coastal Bangladesh?
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Research Workshop Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific 14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines

Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany

Research Workshop Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific 14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines

Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany

Objectives
Overall: How cyclone Aila affected on peoples livelihood and the socioeconomic transformation of coastal Bangladesh?

Specific:
Who are migrants and why? analysis of socio-economic conditions of the respondents Which social groups are forced to move or displaced? What are changes found in local social structure? What can be an approach to mitigate such climatic displacement of the people of sampled area?

Research Workshop Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific 14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines

Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany

Empirical Note
Study Area
12 villages of Shyamnagor Upazila, Satkhira 134 km 0.25 to 3.5 m high abobe mean-sea level 85000 population

Survey
Random sampling 280 households interview GPS survey 21 in-depth interview Snow-ball sampling Group discussion
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Research Workshop Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific 14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines

Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany

Study area

Research Workshop Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific 14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines

Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany

Methods applied & Data Source

Combination of Quantitative and Qualitative methods of Data Collection
Data Type Socio-economic data Damages and Losses due to Cyclone Aila Upazila Map Unit per union Source Upazila Statistics Office, Satkhira, Bangladesh Shyamnagor,

per union

Upazila Statistics Office, Satkhira, Bangladesh

LGED, Ministry of Food Management, Bangladesh

Shyamnagor,

per union

and

Disaster

Field Survey

Household (HH) level

March May 2010 - a total of 280 households survey, - Group Discussion, and - Geographical Data by using GPS - Snow-Ball Sampling method

Research Workshop Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific 14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines

Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany

Results of Study
Move without family i.e. Male members of 35% (98 HH) of sampled HH moved nearer city within 3 weeks after the event Aila Only 7% (20 HH) of sampled HH moved with their family Total migrants families 42% (118) of the sampled HH (280) 78% of them move to Khulna, Satkhira and Bagerhat; 12% move to capital city Dhaka and 10% to Chittagong

Move with family (7%) having links in city (66%) and rest have no link
Move without family (35%) having links in city (36%) and then rest have no link Damage cost appear to be positively correlated with HH income
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Research Workshop Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific 14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines

Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany

Movement status by Religion, Income, Housing Condition, Land and Social Status of the Male Respondents

A. Variables

B. Characteristics representative for the respondents (% of all interviewees) Muslim (89 %) Hindu (11 %)

C. Status of Respondents of column B Migrated 32.8 % 52 % 86 % 58 % 19 % 44.5 % 36.6 % 51 % 32 % 66.6 % 0 55 % Not Migrated 66.2 % 48 % 14 % 42 % 81 % 55.5 % 73.4 % 49 % 68 % 33.3 % 100% 45 %

Remarks

Religion

Monthly Income Level Before Cyclone Aila

< 30 US$ (32 %) 30 75 US$ (62 %) >75 US$ (6 %)

Housing Condition After Cyclone Aila Land Status

Fully Damaged (48.9 %) Partially Damaged (36 %) Land Owner (88 %) Khas-Land Recipient (10 %) Landless (2 %)

Religious identity, income opportunities, damages and losses, land ownership and social images have most influence on the decision making of migration or temporary movement.

Participation in Social Decision Making (Social Status)

Yes (11 %) No (89 %)

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Research Workshop Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific 14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines

Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany

Place and Time of Movement, Frequency of Family Visit by respondents Income Status
Monthly Income Level (# of Displaced Respondent ) Place of Movement (% of Respondents) Nearer Cities (Khulna, Satkhira, Bagerhet) (78 %) 93.5 % Dhaka (Capital City) (12 %) Chittagong (Port City) (10%) Time of Movement Frequency of Family Visits

< 30US$ (31) 30 75 US$ (61) > 75 US$ (6)

3.25 %

3.25 %

< 4 weeks after the event Within 4 to 8 weeks after the event

77 % 0

13 % 50 %

10 % 50 %

- 30% had visited at least once after the movement - 60% had never visited after the movement - 10% have visited at least twice or more

Income matters again!!!! Economic Pull Factors of movement???

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Research Workshop Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific 14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines

Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany

Who were displaced/ migrated?

A) Monthly family income: less than US$ 30, US$ 30-75 and more than US$ 75 B) Land ownership: less than 0.10 Acre, 0.10-0.50 Acre and more than 0.50 Acre C) Damage cost due to cyclone Aila: less than US$ 145, US$ 145 430 and more than US$430
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Research Workshop Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific 14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines

Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany

Why displaced?
Component Variables used in PCA 1 Monthly income after Aila Monthly expenditure after Aila Do you think you are better prepared now to handle a cyclone alike Aila? What are the reasons that your coping capability improved? Do you have easy access to public supports cyclone shelter, relief and rehabilitation works Do you involved with micro-credit program? If yes, precise numbers of your loans
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2 .005 .001 -.036

3 .948 .949 .014

Renamed variables/ component

-.065 -.042 .937

(3) Locally available employment opportunities

.917

-.040

-.103

.756

.010

-.043

(1) Individual knowledge, capability and community supports

-.026 -.026

1.000 1.000

.003 .003

(2) Involvement with micro-credit

Research Workshop Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific 14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines

Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany

Consequences of displacement/ migration

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Research Workshop Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific 14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines

Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany

Coping with problems

Problems they faces?
insecurity of work and finances, sub-standard housing, lack of supports from the community, traps of local politics i.e. insecurity

How they solve financial problems?

borrowing from neighbors (25%), co-workers (57%), informal money lenders (18%) seek access to other micro-credit organization vicious circle of credit

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Research Workshop Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific 14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines

Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany

Other ways of coping

Pull rickshaw/ Van Work in dockyard, train station or bus-stoppages as baggage bearers

Mostly started begging

Sleeping on railway station, foot-path or bus-stoppages etc Borrowing money from local informal money lenders Avoid communication with their dependents at local Women and children are more likely to work, etc.
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Research Workshop Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific 14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines

Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany

Policy and Planning Outlook

Ensure more locally organized income opportunities, immediate after the end of relief-works Appropriate measures for avoiding vicious circle of credit introduction of Resource based Insurance Option rather multiplication of micro-loans Example of Northern Kenya Index base Livestock Insurance for Combating Drought (Barrett et al. 2010).

Empowerment of Local community based/ home-based industrial activities if there is none of such industry, disaster mitigation managers should rethink about this.
Ensure participation of each and every family in rehabilitation activities i.e. earth work for reconstruction of embankments, cyclone shelter constructions, other (re-)construction or development activities etc. Arrangement of institutional supports for the migrants both from the government and non-government organization during transition periods of displaced people. Improvement of public supports services and climate change awareness development programs
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Research Workshop Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific 14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines

Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany

Acknowledgement Research grants and Scholarships

Ph.D. Research Grant from Catholic Academic Foreign Services (KAAD), Germany [www.kaad.de] Field Research Grant from Karlsruhe House of Young Scientist (KHYS) [www.khys.kit.edu] Ph.D. Training Grant from Graduate School of Climate and Environment (GRACE) [www.grace.kit.edu]

Guidance for this research

Dr. Cecilia Tacoli, IIED, London Dr. Robert Mcleman, University of Ottawa, Canada

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Research Workshop Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific 14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines

Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany

Thanks for your patience & Welcome for Discussion, Ideas and Suggestions!

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Research Workshop Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific 14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines

Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany