“The Development of Science and International Security in the 21st Century”

THE INTERNATIONAL SUMMER SCHOOL ON GLOBAL SECURITY 4-7 July 2011 V.M. Murogov, Prof., NRNU MEPhI - IATE

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The science and scientists play key roles in non-proliferation of nuclear weapon A very complicated balance:
• Freedom of science and researches and nonproliferation of knowledge • Openness and publications of results are key factors for the development of present-day science

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Scientists are authors and pioneers of nuclear non-proliferation
• 1940s (World War II) – Atom against nazism (A. Einstein, L. Szilard, E. Wigner) • 1940s (the beginning of cold war) – Against nuclear monopoly • 1950s (cold war, arms race) – Atoms for Peace (the U.S. President Eisenhower, 1953 – Atoms for Peace, I. Kurchatov) • 1954 -1957 – the IAEA • 1968-1970 – Non-Proliferation Treaty • 1960s – Stop nuclear testing! (A. Sakharov) • 1990s – We will beat our swords into plough-shares! – ex-weapon scientific potential – for peace (ISTC)

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Президент США Эйзенхауэр, 1953

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The historical aspects of non-proliferation – nuclear weapon
• 1932: the discovery of neutron, James Chadwick (1891-1974),
Nobel Prize – 1935

• 1938: the discovery and explanation of nuclear fission, Otto Hahn, Lise Meitner, Otto Frisch
Nobel Prize – 1944

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1939: Leo Szilard and Eugene Wigner urged Albert Einstein to write a letter to the U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt

Albert Einstein's letter to Franklin D. Roosevelt, August 2, 1939 Albert Einstein Old Grove Road Nassau Point Peconic, Long Island August 2, 1939 F. D. Roosevelt, President of the United States, White House Washington, D. C. Sir: Some recent work by E.Fermi and L. Szilard, which has been communicated to me in a manuscript, leads me to expect that the element uranium may be turned into a new and important source of energy in the immediate future. Certain aspects of this situation which has arisen seem to call for watchfulness and, if necessary, quick action on the part of the Administration. I believe therefore that it is my duty to bring to your attention the following facts and recommendations: In the course of the last four months it has been made probable - through the work of Joliot in France as well as Fermi and Szilard in America - that it may become possible to set up a nuclear chain reaction in a large mass of uranium,by which vast amount s of power and large quantities of new radium-like elements would be generated. Now it appears almost certain that this could beachieved in the immediate future. This new phenomena would also lead to the construction of bombs, and it is conceivable - though much less certain - that extremely powerful bombs of a new type may thus be constructed. A single bomb of this type, carried by boat and exploded in a port, m ight very well destroy the whole port together with some of the surrounding territory. However, such bombs might very well prove to be too heavy for transportation by air. The United States has only very poor ores of uranium in moderatequantities. There is some good ore in Canada and the former Czechoslovakia, while the most important source of uranium is Belgian Congo. In view of this situation you may think it desirable to have some permanent contact maintained between the administration and the group of physicists working on chain reactions in America. One possible way of achieving this might be for you to entrust with this task a person who has your confidence and who could perhaps serve in an inofficial capacity. His task might comprise the following: a) to approach Government Departments, keep them informed of the further development, and put forward recommendations for Government action, giving particular attention to the problem of securing a supply of uranium or for the United States; b) to speed up the experimental work,which is at present being carried on within the limits of the budgets of University Laboratories, by providing funds, if such funds be required, through his contacts with private persons who are willing to make contrib utions for this cause, and perhaps also by obtaining the co-operation of industrial aboratories which have the necessary equipment. I understand that Germany has actually stopped the sale of uranium from the Czechoslovakian mines which she has taken over. That she should have taken such an early action might perhaps be understood on the ground that the son of the German Under-Secretary of State, von Weizsacker, is attached to the Kaiser-Wilhelm-Institute in Berlin where some of the American work on uranium is now being repeated.

16 July 1945: testing of the first atomic bomb
Robert Oppenheimer “The Gadget” Leslie Groves

August 6 and 9, 1945:
THE FIRST ATOMIC BOMBS WERE DETONATED OVER HIROSHIMA AND NAGASAKI
“Little Boy” (a gun-type bomb)
“Fat Man” (implosion-type bomb)

The first serious Case of Non-Proliferation:

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Serious Cases of NonProliferation:

• Klaus Fuchs (29.12.1911 – 28.01.1988) – a British theoretical physicist (born in Germany), atomic spy who in 1950 was convicted of supplying information from the American and British atomic bomb research to the USSR during and shortly after World War II.

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Exchange of nuclear secrets and weapon is an alternative to the non-proliferation regime during World War II
According to Pavel Sudoplatov, former wartime director of the Administration for Special Tasks, an elite unit of the Soviet intelligence service, Leo Szilard, Robert Oppenheimer and Enrico Fermi, knowingly supplied information to Soviet contacts during their work on the Manhattan Project: Oppenheimer, Fermi, Szilard, and Szilard’s secretary were often quoted in the NKVD files from 1942 to 1945 as sources for information on the development of the first American atomic bomb. It is in the record that on several occasions they agreed to share information on nuclear weapons with Soviet scientists. At first they were motivated by fear of Hitler; they believed that the Germans might produce the first atomic bomb. Then the Danish physicist Niels Bohr helped strengthen their own inclinations to share nuclear secrets with the world academic community: «By sharing

their knowledge with the Soviet Union, the chance of beating the Germans to the bomb would be increased.»

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Exchange of nuclear secrets and weapon is an alternative to the non-proliferation regime during World War II

After bombardment of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Szilard called upon American scientists to lobby in the Congress for civil control of atom. Starting from 1945 he called to direct negotiations between the U.S. and Soviet scientists in order to restrain the nuclear arms race. He insisted that scientists had to share ideas, as it were them who could introduce so necessary sagacity to solving knotting political issues.
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1968-1970: Non-Proliferation Treaty
The Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) entered into force on March 5, 1970. To date, 189 countries are parties to the NPT, five of them being recognized as nuclear weapon states: the United States, Russia (the USSR), the United Kingdom, France and China (permanent members of the UN Security Council)

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1968-1970: Non-Proliferation Treaty
Three pillars are: • Non-proliferation, • Disarmament, • Right for peaceful use of nuclear technologies. Can they all three keep in step?

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Some NPT aspects – clearing up misunderstandings:

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Some NPT aspects – clearing up misunderstandings:

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Risk of knowledge misuse: WMD

MILITARY USE

CIVIL USE

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Risk of knowledge misuse:
NUCLEAR WEAPON & NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGIES MILITARY USE CIVIL USE

Serious physical and technical barriers, even for “subjects of a State”

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Risk of knowledge misuse:
CHEMICAL WEAPON & CHEMICAL TECHNOLOGIES MILITARY USE CIVIL USE

The misuse is not so difficult in a technical sense, but chemical weapon is unattractive politically. It may be used by terrorists.

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Risk of knowledge misuse:
BIOLOGICAL WEAPON & BIOTECHNOLOGIES MILITARY USE CIVIL USE

Misuse occurs in minds of scientists. It is believed that “biological weapon” is vulnerable to terrorism.

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Risks of proliferation and/or threat of terror:

– Biotechnologies – Nuclear – Chemical

The liquidation of chemical weapon from the Earth is one of the greatest achievements after the Cold War in the period of Global Partnership

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The liquidation of chemical weapon from the Earth is one of the greatest achievements after the Cold War in the period of Global Partnership

The Hague Conventions of 1899 and 1907 banned the use of “toxic substances" in military actions, but at the same time above 124 000 tons of gas were prepared by the end of World War I. The French were the first, who made use of chemical weapon (tear gas) during the World War I.

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The liquidation of chemical weapon from the Earth is one of the greatest achievements after the Cold War in the period of Global Partnership
The Germans pioneered the use of chemical weapon against Russian troops near Bolimov, Poland, in January 1915. The first large-scale use of chemical war gases was during the World War I on April 22, 1915 in the 1st Battle of Ieper, Belgium, when the Germans attacked French, Canadian and Algerian troops with chlorine gas. In all, over 50 thousand tons of lung damaging, tear and vesicant war agents were placed from the both sides of conflict, including chlorine, phosgene and mustard. As published officially, about 1 200 000 people were suffered immediately from chemical war gases during the war, while 85 thousand lives were lost.

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The liquidation of chemical weapon from the Earth is one of the greatest achievements after the Cold War in the period of Global Partnership

• If the programs focused on liquidation of chemical weapon go on at a present-day pace, it will take for mankind about 100 years to annihilate it starting from the first massive use (Ieper, 1915). • We must strive for doing the same with nuclear weapon – we have very little time left until 2045!

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• The involvement of scientists, trust and confidence are key in the non-proliferation policy in the XXI century. • The education and responsible knowledge management (Non-Proliferation Culture) are the only way for the global development of science.

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Joint Statement on Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Education was delivered by H.E. Mr. Akio Suda, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, Permanent Representative of Japan to the Conference on Disarmament, at the NPT Review Conference in 2010 Meeting of Main Committee I on 11 May 2010

On behalf of the 42 countries – Australia, Austria, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Estonia, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Guatemala, Hungary, Indonesia, Iraq, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Lithuania, Namibia, New Zealand, Norway, Mexico, Mongolia, Papua New Guinea, Peru, the Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Uruguay, the Russian Federation, Samoa, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand and Tonga

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Joint Statement (2)
"Education is imperative to promote disarmament and nonproliferation, and thus to achieve a world without nuclear weapons. Education imparts knowledge and critical thinking to individuals and people. Education can raise the awareness of the public, in particular the future generations, of the tragic consequences of the use of nuclear weapons. Education can also empower individuals and people to make their contribution, as national and world citizens, to disarmament and non-proliferation."

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Intellectual non-proliferation as a complex process
Human factor

Protection factor

Motivation factor – transition to civil activity

THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION
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