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Panelists Stephen Joske, Director Dr. Qian Liu, Senior Econometrician Access China, Economist Intelligence Unit Beijing, September 2011
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Moving up the Value Chain
Heavy Duty: China’s Next Wave of Exports • China’s export sector will cross two important milestones in the coming year • First, developing countries will take over as China’s primary export market. • Secondly, domestic Chinese firms will overtake foreigninvested companies as the dominant exporters from China.
China’s Golden Decade
What’s driving these changes?
The HOT Zone
Building the world’s building equipment China overtaking Japan and Germany as No.2
Global export market share of construction equipment (%) 2001 China US Japan Germany Global export value (US$ bn) 2.3 21.2 10.0 12.8 62.1 2005 4.4 16.0 11.5 12.5 119.5 2010 10.2 15.7 10.8 11.5 153.2
Sources: ITC; Economist Intelligence Unit calculations.
Competing in developing countries
The regional angle
The rise of Chinese equipment manufacturers and their establishment of closer commercial ties with other emerging markets has been a key driver for recent boom conditions in China’s inland provinces.
Since 2007 GDP growth in China’s inland regions has consistently outpaced that of coastal provinces.
Changsha’s Two Musketeers
Success stories: Sany, Zoomlion, and Xugong
Top ten list of global construction-equipment manufacturers
The implications for Western businesses: Competition will intensify
Gone are the days when the West had the luxury of worrying about low-end textiles and shoe exports from China. The future of exports from China will be led by equipment manufacturers, and although these may not yet be penetrating Western markets, competition in third markets is intensifying. •China has yet to make any notable impact on the US$553bn car export market, the US$310bn packaged pharmaceuticals market, or the US$85bn aircraft market. • But changes are under way. China’s share of the US$361bn microchip export market has gradually crept up to about 8% over the past decade.
• China’s export milestones in the coming year:
developing countries will take over as China’s primary export market. domestic Chinese firms will overtake foreign-invested companies as the dominant exporters from China.
• China’s construction machinery exports will overtake Japan and Germany, with the US still in the lead. • Government’s role: encouraging but not forcing the pace of innovation
Access China - What we do
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Analysis of regional trends in China 31 provinces + 287 prefectures
National Bureau of Statistics Data cleaning
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State-of-the-art econometric framework—dynamic time series Out to 2020
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Heavy duty: China’s next wave of exports
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Navigate human resources in China
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Thank you 谢谢
For the full report, please visit: http://pages.eiu.com/AccessChinaHeavyDutyWPAug2011.html Qian Liu: email@example.com Stephen Joske: firstname.lastname@example.org