Actuarial Mathematics

and Life-Table Statistics
Eric V. Slud
Mathematics Department
University of Maryland, College Park
March 22, 2009
c 2009
Eric V. Slud
Statistics Program
Mathematics Department
University of Maryland
College Park, MD 20742
Contents
0.1 Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iv
1 Basics of Probability & Interest 1
1.1 Probabilities about Lifetimes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1.1 Random Variables and Expectations . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.2 Theory of Interest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
1.2.1 Interest Rates and Compounding . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
1.2.2 Present Values and Payment Streams . . . . . . . . . . 14
1.2.3 Principal and Interest, and Discount Rates . . . . . . . 17
1.2.4 Variable Interest Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
1.2.5 Continuous-time Payment Streams . . . . . . . . . . . 24
1.3 Exercise Set 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
1.4 Worked Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
1.5 Useful Formulas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
2 Interest & Force of Mortality 33
2.1 More on Theory of Interest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
2.1.1 Annuities & Actuarial Notation . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
2.1.2 Loan Repayment: Mortgage, Bond, Sinking Fund . . . 39
i
ii CONTENTS
2.1.3 Loan Amortization & Mortgage Refinancing . . . . . . 41
2.1.4 Illustration on Mortgage Refinancing . . . . . . . . . . 42
2.1.5 Computational illustration in R . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
2.2 Force of Mortality & Analytical Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
2.2.1 Comparison of Forces of Mortality . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
2.3 Exercise Set 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
2.4 Worked Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
2.5 Useful Formulas from Chapter 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
3 Probability & Life Tables 73
3.1 Binomial Variables & Law of Large Numbers . . . . . . . . . . 74
3.1.1 Probability Bounds & Approximations . . . . . . . . . 77
3.2 Simulation of Discrete Lifetimes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
3.3 Expectation of Discrete Random Variables . . . . . . . . . . . 84
3.3.1 Rules for Manipulating Expectations . . . . . . . . . . 87
3.3.2 Curtate Expectation of Life . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
3.4 Interpreting Force of Mortality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
3.5 Interpolation Between Integer Ages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
3.5.1 Life Expectancy – Definition and Approximation . . . 96
3.6 Some Special Integrals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
3.7 Exercise Set 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
3.8 Worked Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
3.9 Appendix on Large Deviation Probabilities . . . . . . . . . . . 109
3.10 Useful Formulas from Chapter 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
4 Expected Present Values of Payments 115
CONTENTS iii
4.1 Preliminaries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
4.2 Types of Contracts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
4.2.1 Formal Relations, m = 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
4.2.2 Formulas for Net Single Premiums . . . . . . . . . . . 123
4.3 Extension to Multiple Payments per Year . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
4.4 Interpolation Formulas in Risk Premiums . . . . . . . . . . . . 130
4.5 Continuous Risk Premium Formulas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
4.5.1 Continuous Contracts & Residual Life . . . . . . . . . 133
4.5.2 Integral Formulas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
4.5.3 Risk Premiums under Theoretical Models . . . . . . . 136
4.5.4 Numerical Calculations of Life Expectancies . . . . . . 140
4.6 Exercise Set 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
4.7 Worked Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
4.8 Useful Formulas from Chapter 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154
A General Features of Duration Data 157
A.1 Survival Data Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
A.2 Formal Notion of the Life Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
A.2.1 The Cohort Life Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
A.3 Sample Spaces for Duration Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
A.3.1 Sample Space– Single Life . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
A.3.2 Sample Space – Cohort Population . . . . . . . . . . . 167
A.3.3 Sample Space – General Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169
Bibliography 171
iv CONTENTS
0.1 Preface
This book is the text for an upper-level lecture course (STAT 470) at the
University of Maryland on actuarial mathematics, in particular on the basics
of Life Tables, Survival Models, and Life Insurance Premiums and Reserves.
This is a ‘topics’ course, aiming not so much to prepare the students for
specific Actuarial Examinations – since it cuts across the Society of Actuaries’
Exams FM, M (Segment MLC) and C – as to present the actuarial material
conceptually with reference to ideas from other undergraduate mathematical
studies. Such a focus allows undergraduates with solid preparation in calculus
(not necessarily mathematics or statistics majors) to explore their possible
interests in business and actuarial science. It also allows the majority of such
students — who will choose some other avenue, from economics to operations
research to statistics, for the exercise of their quantitative talents — to know
something concrete and mathematically coherent about the topics and ideas
actually useful in Insurance.
The Insurance material on contingent present values and life tables is
developed as directly as possible from calculus and common-sense notions,
illustrated through word problems. Both the Interest Theory and Proba-
bility related to life tables are treated as wonderful concrete applications of
the calculus. The lectures require no background beyond a third semester of
calculus, but the prerequisite calculus courses must have been solidly under-
stood. It is a truism of pre-actuarial advising that students who have not
done really well in and digested the calculus ought not to consider actuarial
studies.
It is not assumed that the student has seen a formal introduction to prob-
ability. Notions of relative frequency and average are introduced first with
reference to the ensemble of a cohort life-table, the underlying formal random
experiment being random selection from the cohort life-table population (or,
in the context of probabilities and expectations for ‘lives aged x’, from the
subset of l
x
members of the population who survive to age x). The cal-
culation of expectations of functions of a time-to-death random variables is
rooted on the one hand in the concrete notion of life-table average, which is
then approximated by suitable idealized failure densities and integrals. Later,
in discussing Binomial random variables and the Law of Large Numbers, the
combinatorial and probabilistic interpretation of binomial coefficients are de-
0.1. PREFACE v
rived from the Binomial Theorem, which the student the is assumed to know
as a topic in calculus (Taylor series identification of coefficients of a poly-
nomial.) The general notions of expectation and probability are introduced,
but for example the Law of Large Numbers for binomial variables is treated
(rigorously) as a topic involving calculus inequalities and summation of finite
series. This approach allows introduction of the numerically and conceptually
useful large-deviation inequalities for binomial random variables to explain
just how unlikely it is for binomial (e.g., life-table) counts to deviate much
percentage-wise from expectations when the underlying population of trials
is large.
While the basics of actuarial Life Contingencies are treated elsewhere as a
problem-solving method using mortality tables presented in a cohort format,
some effort is devoted in this book to contrasting the form in which the
underlying mortality data are received to the form of the cohort life table
used in calculating premiums and reserves. This allows statistics students to
connect the basic ideas of life table construction – considered by actuaries a
more advanced topic – to the problems of statistical estimation. Accordingly,
some material is included on statistics of biomedical studies and on reliability
which would not ordinarily find its way into an actuarial course.
The reader is also not assumed to have worked previously with the The-
ory of Interest. These lectures present Theory of Interest as a mathematical
problem-topic, which is rather unlike what is done in typical finance courses.
Getting the typical Interest problems — such as the exercises on mortgage
refinancing and present values of various payoff schemes — into correct for-
mat for numerical answers is often not easy even for good mathematics stu-
dents. The approach here is to return to the first principles of present-value
Equivalence and linear Superposition of payment streams over time. Interest
Theory topics are presented here first as a way to learn the skills of apply-
ing Equivalence and Superposition principles to real problems, but also as
a way of highlighting the relationship between realized payouts under stan-
dard Insurance contracts and instances of standard payment streams with
random duration. In this approach, insurance reserves are seen as natural
generalizations of bond amortization schedules.
While the material in these lectures is presented systematically, it is not
separated by chapters into unified topics such as Interest Theory, Probability
Theory, Premium Calculation, etc. Instead the introductory material from
vi CONTENTS
probability and interest theory are interleaved, and later, various mathemat-
ical ideas are introduced as needed to advance the discussion. No book at
this level can claim to be fully self-contained, but every attempt has been
made to develop the mathematics to fit the actuarial applications as they
arise logically.
The coverage of the main body of each chapter is primarily ‘theoretical’.
At the end of each chapter is an Exercise Set and a short section of Worked
Examples to illustrate the kinds of word problems which can be solved by
the techniques of the chapter. The Worked Examples sections show how
the ideas and formulas work smoothly together, and they highlight the most
important and frequently used formulas.
Finally, this book differs from other Actuarial texts in its use of compu-
tational tools. Realistic problems on present values of payment streams, on
probabilistic survival models related to human lifetimes, and on insurance-
contract premiums related to those models, rapidly lead to calculations too
difficult to do by hand or by calculator. Actuarial students often do these
calculations using EXCEL or other spreadsheet programs, but the conceptu-
ally based formulas often translate more effectively using mathematical tools
in computing platforms like MATLAB or the statistical language R, especially
where building blocks like root-finders or numerical integration routines are
needed. In this text, we encourage the students to use the free, open-source R
platform because of its powerful tools for numerical integration, root-finding,
life-table construction, and statistical estimation. Throughout this text, il-
lustrations and Exercise solutions and solutions are given in terms of R.
Free web access to the downloadable R platform, including manuals, can
be found at http://www.r-project.org/. There are now many good in-
troductory texts on computing with R in statistical applications. One text
which combines a general introduction to R with the specifics of many sta-
tistical data analysis methods, is Venables and Ripley (2002). Some good
free tutorial material on R can also be found on the web, for example at
http://wiener.math.csi.cuny.edu/Statistics/R/simpleR/.
Chapter 1
Basics of Probability and the
Theory of Interest
This first Chapter supplies some background on elementary Probability The-
ory and basic Theory of Interest. The reader who has not previously studied
these subjects may get an overview here, but will likely want to supplement
this Chapter with reading in any of a number of calculus-based introductions
to probability and statistics, such as Hogg and Tanis (2005) or Devore (2007),
and the basics of the Theory of Interest as covered in the text of Kellison
(2008) or Chapter 1 of Gerber (1997).
1.1 Probability, Lifetimes, and Expectation
In the cohort life-table model, imagine a number l
0
of individuals born
simultaneously and followed until death, resulting in data d
x
, l
x
for each
integer age x = 0, 1, 2, . . ., where
l
x
= number of lives aged x (i.e. alive at birthday x )
and
d
x
= l
x
−l
x+1
= number dying between ages x, x + 1
Now, allow the age-variable to be denoted by t and to take all real values,
not just whole numbers x, and treat S
0
(t) as the fraction of individuals in a
1
2 CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
life table surviving to exact age t. This nonincreasing function S
0
(t) would
be called the empirical ‘survivor’ or ‘survival’ function. Although it takes on
only rational values with denominator l
0
, it can be approximated by a
survival function S(t) which is continuous, decreasing, and continuously
differentiable (or piecewise continuously differentiable with just a few break-
points) and takes values exactly = l
x
/l
0
at integer ages x. Then for all
positive real y and t, S
0
(y) −S
0
(y +t) is the exact and S(y) −S(y +t)
the approximated fraction of the initial cohort which fails between time y
and y +t, and for integers x, k,
S(x) −S(x +k)
S(x)
=
l
x
−l
x+k
l
x
denotes the fraction of those alive at exact age x who fail before x +k.
What do probabilities have to do with the cohort life table and survival
function ? To answer this, we first introduce probability as simply a relative
frequency, using numbers from a cohort life-table like that of the accompany-
ing Illustrative Life Table. In response to a probability question, we supply
the fraction of the relevant life-table population, to obtain identities like
Pr(life aged 29 dies between exact ages 35 and 41 or between 52 and 60 )
=
S(35) −S(41) +S(52) −S(60)
S(29)
=
_
(l
35
−l
41
) + (l
52
−l
60
)
__
l
29
where our convention is that a life aged 29 is one of the cohort known to
have survived to the 29th birthday. Note that the event of dying between
exact ages 35 and 41 or between 52 and 60 is the union of the nonoverlapping
events of the age random variable having value falling in the interval [35, 41)
with that of falling in [52, 60).
The idea here is that all of the lifetimes covered by the life table are
understood to be governed by an identical “mechanism” of failure, and that
any probability question about a single lifetime is really a question concerning
the fraction of a specified set of lives, e.g., those alive at age x, whose
lifetimes will satisfy the stated property, e.g., who die either between 35 and
41 or between 52 and 60. This “frequentist” notion of probability of an event
as the relative frequency with which the event occurs in a large population
of (independent) identical units is associated with the phrase “law of large
1.1. PROBABILITIES ABOUT LIFETIMES 3
numbers”, which will be discussed later. For now, remark only that the life
table population should be large for the ideas presented so far to make good
sense. See Table 1.1 for an illustration of a cohort life-table with realistic
numbers, and for a cohort life table constructed to reflect the best estimates
of US male and female mortality rates in 2004, see the Social Security web-
page http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html.
The main ideas arising in the discussion so far are really matters of com-
mon sense when applied to relative frequency but require formal axioms when
used more generally:
• Probabilities are numbers between 0 and 1 assigned to subsets of the
entire collection Ω of possible outcomes, with the probability of Ω it-
self defined equal to 1. In the examples, the subsets which are assigned
probabilities include sub-intervals of the interval of possible human life-
times measured in years, and also disjoint unions of such subintervals.
These sets in the real line are viewed as possible events summarizing
ages at death of newborns in the cohort population. At this point, we
regard each set A of ages as determining the subset of the cohort
population whose ages at death fall in A.
• The probability Pr(A ∪ B) of the union A ∪ B of disjoint (i.e.,
nonoverlapping) sets A and B is necessarily equal to the sum of the
separate probabilities Pr(A) and Pr(B).
• When probabilities are requested with reference to a smaller universe of
possible outcomes, such as B = lives aged 29, rather than all members
of a cohort population, the resulting conditional probabilities of events
A are written Pr(A| B) and calculated as Pr(A∩B)/Pr(B), where
A ∩ B denotes the intersection or overlap of the two events A, B.
The phrase “lives aged 29” defines an event which in terms of ages at
death says simply “age at death is 29 or larger” or, in relation to the
cohort population, specifies the subset of the population which survives
to exact age 29 (i.e., to the 29th birthday).
• Two events A, B are defined to be independent when Pr(A∩ B) =
Pr(A) · Pr(B) or — equivalently, as long as Pr(B) > 0 — when
the conditional probability Pr(A|B) expressing the probability of A
if B were known to have occurred, is the same as the unconditional
probability Pr(A).
4 CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
Table 1.1: Illustrative Life-Table, simulated to resemble realistic US Male
life-table up to age 78. For details of simulation, see Section 3.2 below.
Age x l
x
d
x
x l
x
d
x
0 100000 2629 40 92315 295
1 97371 141 41 92020 332
2 97230 107 42 91688 408
3 97123 63 43 91280 414
4 97060 63 44 90866 464
5 96997 69 45 90402 532
6 96928 69 46 89870 587
7 96859 52 47 89283 680
8 96807 54 48 88603 702
9 96753 51 49 87901 782
10 96702 33 50 87119 841
11 96669 40 51 86278 885
12 96629 47 52 85393 974
13 96582 61 53 84419 1082
14 96521 86 54 83337 1088
15 96435 105 55 82249 1213
16 96330 83 56 81036 1344
17 96247 125 57 79692 1423
18 96122 133 58 78269 1476
19 95989 149 59 76793 1572
20 95840 154 60 75221 1696
21 95686 138 61 73525 1784
22 95548 163 62 71741 1933
23 95385 168 63 69808 2022
24 95217 166 64 67786 2186
25 95051 151 65 65600 2261
26 94900 149 66 63339 2371
27 94751 166 67 60968 2426
28 94585 157 68 58542 2356
29 94428 133 69 56186 2702
30 94295 160 70 53484 2548
31 94135 149 71 50936 2677
32 93986 152 72 48259 2811
33 93834 160 73 45448 2763
34 93674 199 74 42685 2710
35 93475 187 75 39975 2848
36 93288 212 76 37127 2832
37 93076 228 77 34295 2835
38 92848 272 78 31460 2803
39 92576 261
1.1. PROBABILITIES ABOUT LIFETIMES 5
Note: see a basic probability textbook, such as Hogg and Tanis (1997)
or Devore (2007), for formal definitions and more detailed discussion of the
notions of sample space, event, probability, and conditional probability.
The life-table, and the mechanism by which members of the population
die, are summarized first through the survivor function S(t) which at inte-
ger values of t = x agrees with the ratios l
x
/l
0
. Note that S(t) has values
between 0 and 1, and can be interpreted as the probability for a single indi-
vidual to survive at least x time units. Since fewer people are alive at larger
ages, S(t) is a decreasing function of the continuous age-variable t, and in
applications S(t) should be continuous and piecewise continuously differen-
tiable (largely for convenience, and because any analytical expression which
would be chosen for S(t) in practice will be piecewise smooth). In addition,
by definition, S(0) = 1. Another way of summarizing the probabilities of
survival given by this function is to define the density function
f(t) = −
dS
dt
(t) = −S

(t) (1.1)
as the (absolute) rate of decrease of the function S. Then, by the funda-
mental theorem of calculus, for any ages a < b,
Pr( life aged 0 dies between ages a and b )
= S(a) −S(b) =
_
b
a
(−S

(t)) dt =
_
b
a
f(t) dt (1.2)
which has the very helpful geometric interpretation that the probability of
dying within the interval [a, b) is equal to the area under the density curve
y = f(t) over the t-interval [a, b). Note also that the ‘probability’ rule which
assigns the integral
_
A
f(t) dt to the set A (which may be an interval,
a union of intervals, or a still more complicated set) obviously satisfies the
first two of the bulleted axioms displayed above, namely that P(Ω) = 1
(where Ω is the sample space of all life-table outcomes) and Pr(A ∪ B) =
Pr(A) + Pr(B) whenever A, B are disjoint or nonoverlapping subsets of
Ω.
The terminal age ω of a life table is an integer value large enough that
S(ω) is negligibly small, but no value S(t) for t < ω is zero. For practical
purposes, no individual lives to the ω birthday. While ω is finite in real
life-tables and in some analytical survival models, most theoretical forms for
6 CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
S(t) have no finite age ω at which S(ω) = 0, and in those forms ω = ∞
by convention.
In probability theory, the sample space Ω is the set of all detailed out-
comes of the underlying data-generating experiment. Subsets of the sample
space to which probabilities will be assigned are called events. In this book,
all of the interesting events concern lifetimes, or ages at death. Insurance
contract payouts will be expressed as functions of the lifetimes at death of
insured lives, and the average or expected values of these payouts will be used
to calculate a fair equivalent value of the insurance contract to the insured.
The machinery for calculating the average values relates to the concept of
random variable based on the sample space Ω = [0, ∞) of lifetimes.
1.1.1 Random Variables and Expectations
Formally, a random variable is a real-valued mapping X defined on a sample
space Ω, such that {s ∈ Ω : X(s) ∈ (a, b]} is an event with assigned
probability whenever a < b are real numbers. The real number X(s)
is interpreted as the value which would be observed if the detailed outcome
of the underlying random experiment were s ∈ Ω. The most important
feature of a random variable is its probability distribution, which is the
assignment rule of probabilities to all intervals (a, b] of values for X,
denoted for all real numbers a ≤ b by
Pr(a < X ≤ b) ≡ Pr({s ∈ Ω : X(s) ∈ (a, b]})
Remark 1.1 In datasets derived from actual mortality studies or insurance
portfolios, the detailed outcomes can be quite complicated, as discussed in
Appendix A. However, in this and succeeding Chapters, we analyze lifetimes
based on the cohort life table model, also discussed in Appendix A, which
is a simplified model based on the reduced data-structure, in which numbers
at risk and numbers of observed failures are tabulated on age intervals of one
year.
Now we are ready to define some terms and motivate the notion of ex-
pectation. Think of the age T at which a specified newly born member of
1.1. PROBABILITIES ABOUT LIFETIMES 7
the population will die as a random variable, which for present purposes
means a variable which takes various values t with probabilities governed
(at integer ages) by the life table data l
x
and the survivor function S(t) or
density function f(t) in a formula like the one just given in equation (1.2).
Suppose there is a contractual amount Y which must be paid (say, to the
heirs of that individual) at the death of the individual at age T, and suppose
that the contract provides a specific function Y = g(T) according to which
this payment depends on (the whole-number part of) the age T at which
death occurs. What is the average value of such a payment over all individ-
uals whose lifetimes are reflected in the life-table ? Since d
x
= l
x
− l
x+1
individuals (out of the original l
0
) die at ages between x and x + 1,
thereby generating a payment g(x), the total payment to all individuals in
the life-table can be written as

x
(l
x
−l
x+1
) g(x)
Thus the average payment, at least under the assumption that Y = g(T)
depends only on the largest whole number [T] less than or equal to T, is

x
(l
x
−l
x+1
) g(x) / l
0
=

x
(S(x) −S(x + 1))g(x)
=

x
_
x+1
x
f(t) g(t) dt =
_

0
f(t) g(t) dt
(1.3)
This quantity, the total contingent payment over the whole cohort divided by
the number in the cohort, is called the expectation of the random payment
Y = g(T) in this special case, and can be interpreted as the weighted average
of all of the different payments g(x) actually received, where the weights
are just the relative frequency in the life table with which those payments
are received. More generally, if the restriction that g(t) depends only on
the integer part [t] of t were dropped , then the expectation of Y = g(T)
would be given by the same formula
E(Y ) = E(g(T)) =
_

0
f(t) g(t) dt (1.4)
The foregoing discussion of expectations based on lifetime random vari-
ables included an interpretation of the expected value of discrete random
variables in terms of weighted averages which holds much more generally. In
this chapter, the averages are taken over all lives tabulated in an underly-
ing cohort life table. In Chapter 3, specifically in Section 3.3, averages are
8 CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
taken over large samples of observations of discrete random variables. With
the aid of the Law of Large Numbers, the weighted-average interpretation of
expectations can be understood as a general mathematical result.
The displayed integral (1.4), like all expectation formulas, can be under-
stood as a weighted average of values g(T) obtained over a population,
with weights equal to the probabilities of obtaining those values. Recall from
the Riemann-integral construction in Calculus that the integral
_
f(t)g(t)dt
can be regarded approximately as the sum over very small time-intervals
[t, t + ∆) of the quantities f(t)g(t)∆, quantities which are interpreted as
the base ∆ of a rectangle multiplied by its height f(t)g(t), and the rect-
angle closely matches the area under the graph of the function f g over the
interval [t, t + ∆). The term f(t)g(t)∆ can alternatively be interpreted
as the product of the value g(t) — essentially equal to any of the values
g(T) which can be realized when T falls within the interval [t, t +∆) —
multiplied by f(t) ∆. The latter quantity is, by the Fundamental Theorem
of the Calculus, approximately equal for small ∆ to the area under the
function f over the interval [t, t + ∆), and is by definition equal to the
probability with which T ∈ [t, t +∆). In summary, E(Y ) =
_

0
g(t)f(t)dt
is the average of values g(T) obtained for lifetimes T within small intervals
[t, t +∆) weighted by the probabilities of approximately f(t)∆ with which
those T and g(T) values are obtained. The expectation is a weighted
average because the weights f(t)∆ sum to the integral
_

0
f(t)dt = 1.
Remark 1.2 This way of approximating integrals of continuous integrands
by sums corresponding to the integrals of piecewise constant integrands is
closely related to the construction of the integral in terms of Riemann sums.
For fuller details, see the definition the Integral via Riemann sums in a cal-
culus book like Ellis and Gulick (2002).
The same idea and formula in (1.4) can be applied to the restricted popu-
lation of lives aged x. The resulting quantity is then called the conditional
expected value of g(T) given that T ≥ x. The formula will be different
in two ways: first, the range of integrationis from x to ∞, because of the
resitriction to individuals in the life-table who have survived to exact age
x; second, the density f(t) must be replaced by f(t)/S(x), the so-called
conditional density given T ≥ x, which is found as follows. From the
1.2. THEORY OF INTEREST 9
definition of conditional probability, for t ≥ x,
Pr(t ≤ T < t + ∆| T ≥ x) =
Pr( {t ≤ T < t + ∆} ∩ {T ≥ x})
Pr(T ≥ x)
=
Pr(t ≤ T < t + ∆)
Pr(T ≥ x)
=
S(t) −S(t + ∆)
S(x)
Thus the density which can be used to calculate conditional probabilities
Pr(a ≤ T < b | T ≥ x) for x < a < b is
lim
∆→0
1

Pr(t ≤ T < t+∆| T ≥ x) = lim
∆→0
S(t) −S(t + ∆)
S(x) ∆
=
−S

(t)
S(x)
=
f(t)
S(x)
In other words, when it is desired to calculate the expectation of a function
Y = g(T) of the lifetime variable T only within the conditional or restricted
population of individuals with lifetime ≥ x, then the density f(t) in the
expectation formula (1.4) should be replaced by the density which is equal
to f(t)/S(x) for all values of t which are ≥ x, and which is 0 for values
t ∈ [0, x).
The result of all of this discussion of conditional expected values is the
formula, with associated weighted-average interpretation:
E(g(T) | T ≥ x) =
1
S(x)
_

x
g(t) f(t) dt (1.5)
1.2 Theory of Interest
1.2.1 Interest Rates and Compounding
Since payments based upon unpredictable occurrences or contingencies for
insured lives can occur at different times, we study next the Theory of Inter-
est, which is concerned with valuing streams of payments made over time.
The general model in the case of constant interest, to which we restrict in
the current sub-section, is as follows. Money is deposited in an account like
a bank-account and grows according to a schedule determined by both the
interest rate and the occasions when interest amounts are compounded, that
10 CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
is, deemed to be added to the account. The compounding rules are impor-
tant because they determine when new interest interest begins to be earned
on previously earned interest amounts.
The central concept of compound interest is that, over the fixed time
interval of one year, an amount A
0
deposited at the beginning of the interval
accumulates to A
1
= A
0
· (1 + i) which could be withdrawn at the end
of the interval. Since the constant interest rate is quoted as a constant over
the period of one year, we have 1 +i as the accumulation factor by which
an initial deposit is multiplied to find the balance at the end of one year.
By convention, interest rates are generally quoted as annualized rates, which
means that the interest rate i
h
applied to a time-interval [t, t + h] for a
period h of less than one year is prorated down to the interval h to give
hi
h
, which results in an accumulation factor 1 + hi
h
. Thus, for an initial
deposit A
0
at time t which is to be retained in a bank account for the time
h, so that the accumulated amount is compounded (i.e., is calculated by
the bank and owned by the depositor) at time t +h, the balance which the
owner could withdraw at time t +h is A(0) · (1 +hi
h
).
If the quoted interest rate i
h
is annualized, and if interest earned is
to be credited after every successive interval h = 1/m, then we say that
the interest rate is a nominal annualized interest rate with m-times-
yearly compounding or simply the nominal interest rate, and the standard
notation for it is i
(m)
instead of i
1/m
as written above.
Banks are not required to calculate interest from the instant (in practical
terms, the day) of deposit to the instant (i.e., the day) of withdrawal. In
practice, the intervals of compounding are generally fractions h = 1/m of
a year, usually with m = 1, 2, 4, or 12. This means that after a deposit
of A
0
at time t, the depositor wishing to withdraw the full accumulation
or balance at time t +s for 0 < s < h owns only the initial amount A
0
,
because no interest has yet been credited.
The further growth of deposited money over successive time intervals
of length h = 1/m, if compounded at each additional interval of length
1/m, is easily understood inductively. With amount A
0
deposited initially
at time t, the balance as of time t + h is A
0
(1 + i
(m)
/m) and can be
viewed as though it were simultaneously withdrawn and freshly deposited at
time t + h, after which it would accumulate over the succeeding interval
1.2. THEORY OF INTEREST 11
[t + h, t + 2h] by multiplying the deposited amount A
0
(1 + i
(m)
/m) by
the interval-h accumulation factor 1 +i
(m)
/m. Thus the balance as of time
t +2h = t +2/m is A
0
(1 +i
(m)
/m)
2
. Inductively, for k ≥ 2, if the balance
A
0
(1 + i
(m)
/m)
k
owned by the depositor at time t + k/m is regarded as
instantaneously withdrawn and redeposited as an initial balance for the next
interval [t + k/m, t + (k + 1)/m], the balance at time t + (k + 1)/m is
A
0
(1 +i
(m)
/m)
k
multiplied by the interval-h accumulation factor 1 +ih, or
A
0
(1 +i
(m)
/m)
(k+1)
.
The overall result of our reasoning about m-times yearly compounded
nominal interest is the following:
Proposition 1.1 The accumulated value of an initial bank deposit of A
0
compounded m times yearly at nominal interest rate i
(m)
after a time
k/m+s, where 0 ≤ s < 1/m and k ≥ 0 is an integer, is (1+i
(m)
/m)
k
· A
0
.
Proposition 1.1 with k = m says that at the annualized nominal interest
rate i
(m)
, an initial deposit of A
0
accumulates after exactly one year
to a balance of (1 + i
(m)
/m)
m
A
0
. Since the accumulation from the full
year of deposit has the effect of multiplying the initial deposit by the factor
(1 + i
(m)
/m)
m
, a factor which would have been 1 + i at interest rate i
compounded yearly. This proves that the nominal interest rate i
(m)
with m-
times-yearly compounding leads to exactly the same accumulation over whole
years as a deposit account with the once-yearly compounded “effective” rate
i ≡ i
eff
= (1 +i
(m)
/m)
m
− 1
Since any nominal interest rate i
(m)
has its equivalent effective interest
rate i = i
eff
providing the same yearly accumulations, the nominal interest
rates i
(m)
with different values of m but the same value of i can also
be regarded as equivalent. These whole-year-equivalent nominal rates are
determined by solving the last equation for i
(m)
in terms of i = i
eff
:
i
(m)
= m
_
(1 +i)
1/m
− 1
_
(1.6)
For example, with i = .05, or 5% effective annual interest, the corre-
sponding nominal rates i
(m)
for the most common values of m are obtained
through the R code line:
12 CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
mvec = c(1,2,4,12, 365) ; imvec = mvec*(1.05ˆ(1/mvec) - 1)
as
i
(1)
= .05 , i
(2)
= .04939 , i
(4)
= .04909 , i
(12)
= .04889 , i
(365)
= .04879
A few simple calculus manipulations allow us to establish the pattern of
the displayed i
(m)
values for all choices of i, m. The right-hand side of
equation (1.6) is a function g(h) of h = 1/m, where
g(h) = h
−1
_
(1 +i)
h
− 1
_
= (exp(hln(1 +i)) −1)/h
has the form of a difference quotient from Calculus. Recall the Taylor series
expansion e
z
= 1 + z + z
2
/2 + z
3
/3! · · · which is valid for all z > 0.
Substitute this series with z = hln(1 + i) into the displayed formula for
g(h) to conclude that
g(h) =

j=1
(ln(1 + i) · h)
j
h · j!
= ln(1 +i) +

j=1
1
j!
(ln(1 +i))
j
h
j−1
is an increasing function of h > 0 and is always greater than its right-hand
limit
g(0+) = lim
h0
exp(hln(1 +i)) − 1
h
=
d
dh
_
e
h ln(1+i)
_
h=0
= ln(1 +i)
The information just established concerning the behavior of i
(m)
=
g(1/m) as a function of m for fixed effective interest rate i = i
eff
is
summarized as follows.
Proposition 1.2 When i = i
eff
is fixed, the nominal annual interest rate
i
(m)
for m-times-yearly compounding is a decreasing function of the positive
integer m and tends as m →∞ to the limiting value, defined as the force
of interest,
δ = ln(1 +i
eff
) = lim
m→∞
i
(m)
1.2. THEORY OF INTEREST 13
In the displayed i
(m)
values for i = .05, the daily-compounded nominal
interest rate was i
(365)
= .048973. The corresponding force of interest, also
called the instaneously or continuously compounded nominal interest rate, is
δ = ln(1.05) = .048970.
The effective interest rate i
eff
can be expressed through its nominal
continuously compounded interest rate δ as i = e
δ
, and the other nominal
rates have similar expressions immediately derived from (1.6):
i
(m)
= m(e
δ/m
− 1)
For all durations t which are rational numbers, i.e., are of the form
t = k/m for positive integers k, m, Prop. 1.1 with s = 0 says that the
accumulation factor for duration t = k/m based on m-times-yearly com-
pounding at effective interest rate i is (1+i
(m)
/m)
k
= (1+i
(m)
/m)
mt
= e
t δ
.
Since t = k/m is also of the form kl/(ml) for every integer l ≥ 1, the same
reasoning gives e

as the accumulation factor for duration t under the
same effective interest rate with ml-times-yearly compounding. Taking the
limit as l →∞, with t fixed and arbitrary m ≥ 1, says that the accumu-
lation factor over duration t for instantaneous or continuous compounding
should be the same. This is essentially a definition of what accumulation
by continuous compounding should mean, but it is the only definition under
which continuous compounding is well approximated by compounding arib-
trarily (but finitely) many times per day.
Now it is obvious that the accumulation factor by continuous compound-
ing over a duration k/m+s (for 0 ≤ s ≤ 1/m is nondecreasing in s and
must therefore lie within the interval [e
δk/m
, e
δ(k+1)/m
]. By continuity of the
exponential function, there follows:
Proposition 1.3 The accumulated balance of an initial deposit A
0
under
continuous compounding with effective interest rate i, or equivalently with
force of interest δ = ln(1+i), over a duration t > 0 which is not necessarily
a rational number, is exp(δt) · A
0
.
So far, we have described in Props. 1.1 and 1.3 the mechanism of accu-
mulation under nominal interest rates applying with either m-times-yearly or
continuous compounding, and in equation (1.6) and Prop. 1.2 the relations
14 CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
between nominal interest rates, force of interest, and effective interest rates.
There is a further term for interest rates which must be disclosed to borrow-
ers under US contracts, namely the Annual Percentage Rate or APR. Unlike
the interest rate terminology discussed up to this point, APR is a legal term
which refers either (‘effective APR’) to the effective interest rate or (‘nominal
APR’ or simply ‘APR’) to the nominal interest, to which is added in either
case the service fees charged by the lender as a fraction of the beginning-of-
year loan balance. The APR disclosure is intended as a consumer protection
to the borrower, but may vary across jurisdictions in the way start-up fees
(e.g., origination and participation) are required to be reported.
1.2.2 Present Values and Payment Streams
Applications of the theory of interest generally involve comparisons between
streams of payments which may be made at different times and may accu-
mulate at different rates of interest. These payments may be deposits into
a bank or investment account, or loan repayments, or successive payments
designed to accumulate over time at interest to a sufficient reserve fund to
meet some future liability.
First, a discrete payment stream is a sequence of (positive) deposit
amounts α
j
made at specified calendar times t
j
, j = 1, 2, . . . , n and
which are regarded as accumulating from their times of deposit according to
a schedule of interest rates r(t) which remain constant within successive
intervals of calendar time t but which may change from one such interval
to the next.
Two basic principles govern all problems of valuing such payment streams.
• The Principle of Equivalence defines equivalence at time τ
between two payment streams, one with payments and times (α
j
, t
j
,
j = 1, 2, . . . , n) and interest rate function r(t) and the other with
payments and times (α

j
, t

j
, j = 1, 2, . . . , n

) and interest rate func-
tion r

(t), where τ ≥ max
j
t
j
, max
j
t

j
. These streams are called
equivalent at τ if the accumulated values at τ from the two payment
streams under their respective interest rate functions are the same.
1.2. THEORY OF INTEREST 15
• The Principle of Linear Superposition states that the total accu-
mulated amount resulting at time τ from a payment stream (α
j
, t
j
, j =
1, 2, . . . , n) under interest rate function r(t) is the same as the sum of
the accumulated values up to time T of n separate deposit accounts
initiated at the respective times t
j
with deposits of α
j
, all under the
same interest rate function r(t).
The two Principles as just stated do not yet tell us how to calculate the
accumulated values at τ under interest rate functions r(t) that vary over
time. However, we can already see that the first Principle is a definition,
while we will see that the second is an essentially obvious restatement of
the commutativity of addition together with the fact that the accumulation
of discrete payment streams is a well-defined linear function of the payment
amounts α
j
.
Consider first the case where r(t) ≡ i is constant over the entire time-
interval [min
j
t
j
, τ]. Then Prop. 1.3 gives the contribution of the deposit
α
j
at time t
j
to the accumulated value at τ as α
j
· (1 + i)
τ−t
j
. On
the other hand, the direct inductive calculation of the accumulated amounts
at all times t
l
≥ t
j
due to the α
j
deposit, are also given via Prop. 1.3
as α
j
· (1 + i)
t
l
−t
j
, from which (by continuously compounding at interest
rate i from the largest of the times t
l
until τ) the final contribution
of the α
j
deposit to the final accumulation at τ is again seen to be
α
j
· (1 +i)
τ−t
j
. This argument, with a little more notational effort and an
inductive argument over the successively larger deposit times t
l
, can be made
into a rigorous proof of the Linear Superposition principle in the constant
interest-rate environment with continuous compounding. The formula for
the continuously compounded accumulated value of the stream at time τ is
n

j=1
α
j
(1 +i)
τ−t
j
=
n

j=1
α
j
e
δ (τ−t
j
)
(1.7)
If compounding is instead m-times-yearly and all of the time-differences τ−t
l
are integer multiples of 1/m, then we appeal to Propositions 1.1 and 1.3
to confirm that there is no difference between the accumulated values at
effective interest rate i under continuous or m-times-yearly compounding,
and formula (1.7) again expresses the accumulated value at τ, which is also
16 CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
equal to
n

j=1
α
j
(1 +i
(m)
/m)
m(τ−t
j
)
The most important application of the principle of equivalence is in find-
ing a deposit amount α
PV
at a single fixed time t which is equivalent
to the payment stream (α
j
, t
j
, j = 1, . . . , n) at all times τ ≥ max
j
t
j
, at
the same effective interest rate i = i
eff
with continuous compounding as
is used to accumulate (α
j
, t
j
, j = 1, . . . , n). This amount α
PV
is then
called the present value of the payment stream at time t . To see
why this is possible, consider any fixed τ ≥ max(t, max
j
t
j
) and equate
the accumulated value (1.7) to the accumulated value α
PV
(1 +i)
τ−t
of the
single deposit at time t using interest rate i, yielding:
n

j=1
α
j
(1 +i)
τ−t
j
= α
PV
(1 +i)
τ−t
=⇒ α
PV
=
n

j=1
α
j
(1 +i)
t−t
j
(1.8)
This equation determining α
PV
evidently does not depend upon τ. It tells
first (with n = 1, t
1
= 0 in (1.8)) the present value at fixed interest rate i
of a payment of 1 exactly t years in the future, (1 + i)
−t
. This is the
amount which must be put in the bank at time 0 in order to accumulate by
the factor (1 +i)
t
given by Prop. 1.3) to the value 1 at time t. Then, more
generally,
the present value at time 0 under constant interest rate i of
a payment stream consisting of payments α
j
at future times
t
j
, j = 1, . . . , n is equal to the summation

n
j=1
α
j
(1 +i)
−t
j
.
The same phenomenon, that a single deposit α
PV
at time t
0
can be
equivalent at all times τ to a payment stream (α
j
, t
j
, j = 1, . . . , n) turns
out to hold more generally whenever the same time-varying interest rate
function r(t) is used to accumulate both the single deposit and the payment
stream. The proof of this Fact will be left to an Exercise in Section 1.2.4
where accumulation formulas for variable interest rates are discussed. The
magnitude α
PV
is then the general present value of the payment stream at
time t
0
.
1.2. THEORY OF INTEREST 17
1.2.3 Principal and Interest, and Discount Rates
In this Section, we consider the compounding of interest from the point of
view of a borrower of an amount L at time 0, where the interest rate is
constant with i
eff
= i. Initially assume continuous compounding for all
accumulations. If the borrower plans to make payments α
j
, 1 ≤ j ≤ n, at
times 0 < t
1
< t
2
< · · · < t
n
, then by definition
the principal remaining on the loan as of time t is equal to the
accumulated value at t of the single deposit L at time 0 , minus
the accumulated value at t under continuously compounded
effective rate i of all payments made at times before t, i.e.,
Principal at time t = L(1 +i)
t

j: t
j
≤t
α
j
(1 +i)
t−t
j
.
The principal remaining in the loan just after a payment has been made is
the same as the amount the borrower could pay to pay off the loan completely
at that instant. In addition, if there are fees or late charges due at the times
t
j
when payments are made, then those amounts are added to the Principal
or Balance owed as of t
j
. However, in the present discussion we ignore all
such additional fees or charges.
The principal owed on the loan just after time t reflects that as of time
t, the lender must be compensated for the amount (1 +i)
t
L to which the
original loan amount would accumulate; while the accumulated value of the
stream of payments actually made up to time t reduces the debt.
Each payment α
j
made can be broken down into the so-called Interest
and Principal portions by the rule:
Interest Portion of Paymt at t
j
= (Principal at t
j−1
) · ((1 +i)
t
j
−t
j−1
−1)
Principal Portion of Paymt at t
j
= α
j
− Interest Portion of Paymt at t
j
The first of these lines is clearly the amount of interest that the principal
just after t
j−1
would have earned at rate i over the time interval t
j
−t
j−1
.
The amount of the payment at t
j
minus the amount of interest at t
j
is the
amount by which the principal decreases from just after t
j−1
to just after
t
j
. This simple Proposition is not quite obvious, but is easily shown by an
algebraic rearrangement of terms, given as an Exercise.
18 CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
Exercise 1.A. Show that the foregoing definitions of Principal and Principal
Portions of payments are compatible by deriving the following identity from
the definitions. If Π(t) denotes the principal owed just after time t, and
π
j
denotes the principal portion of the payment at t
j
, then
Π(t
j−1
) − π
j
= Π(t
j
) 2
The nominal interest rates i
(m)
for different periods of compounding were
seen in Prop. 1.2 to be related by the formulas
(1 +i
(m)
/m)
m
= 1 +i = 1 +i
eff
, i
(m)
= m
_
(1 +i)
1/m
− 1
_
(1.9)
Similarly, interest can be said to be governed by the discount rates d
(m)
for
various compounding periods, defined by
1 − d
(m)
/m = (1 +i
(m)
/m)
−1
Solving the last equation for d
(m)
gives
d
(m)
= i
(m)
/(1 +i
(m)
/m) (1.10)
The idea of discount rates is that if an amount 1 is loaned out at interest,
then the amount d
(m)
/m is the correct amount to be repaid at the beginning
rather than the end of each fraction 1/m of the year, with repayment of
the principal of 1 at the end of the year, in order to amount to the same
effective interest rate. The reason is that, according to the definition, the
amount 1−d
(m)
/m accumulates at nominal interest i
(m)
to (1−d
(m)
/m) ·
(1 +i
(m)
/m) = 1 after a time-period of 1/m.
The quantities i
(m)
and d
(m)
are naturally introduced as the interest
payments which must be made respectively at the ends and the beginnings
of successive time-periods of length 1/m in order that the principal owed at
each time j/m on an amount 1 borrowed at time 0 will always be 1. To
define these terms and justify this assertion, consider first the simplest case,
m = 1. If 1 is to be borrowed at time 0, then the single payment at time
1 which fully compensates the lender, if that lender could alternatively have
earned interest rate i, is (1+i), which we view as a payment of 1 principal
(the face amount of the loan) and i interest. In exactly the same way, if
1 is borrowed at time 0 for a time-period 1/m, then the repayment at
1.2. THEORY OF INTEREST 19
time 1/m takes the form of 1 principal and i
(m)
/m interest. Thus, if
1 was borrowed at time 0, an interest payment of i
(m)
/m at time 1/m
leaves an amount 1 still owed, which can be viewed as an amount borrowed
on the time-interval (1/m, 2/m]. Then a payment of i
(m)
/m at time
2/m still leaves an amount 1 owed at 2/m, which is deemed borrowed
until time 3/m, and so forth, until the loan of 1 on the final time-interval
((m−1)/m, 1] is paid off at time 1 with a final interest payment of i
(m)
/m
together with the principal repayment of 1. The overall result which we
have just proved intuitively is:
1 at time 0 is equivalent to the stream of m payments of
i
(m)
/m at times 1/m, 2/m, . . . , 1 plus the payment of 1 at
time 1.
Similarly, if interest is to be paid at the beginning of the period of the
loan instead of the end, the interest paid at time 0 for a loan of 1 would
be d = i/(1 + i), with the only other payment a repayment of principal at
time 1. To see that this is correct, note that since interest d is paid at the
same instant as receiving the loan of 1 , the net amount actually received
is 1 − d = (1 + i)
−1
, which accumulates in value to (1 −d)(1 +i) = 1 at
time 1. Similarly, if interest payments are to be made at the beginnings
of each of the intervals (j/m, (j + 1)/m] for j = 0, 1, . . . , m − 1, with
a final principal repayment of 1 at time 1, then the interest payments
should be d
(m)
/m. This follows because the amount effectively borrowed
(after the immediate interest payment) over each interval (j/m, (j +1)/m]
is (1−d
(m)
/m), which accumulates in value over the interval of length 1/m
to an amount (1 − d
(m)
/m)(1 +i
(m)
/m) = 1. So throughout the year-long
life of the loan, the principal owed at (or just before) each time (j +1)/m is
exactly 1. The overall result concerning m-period-yearly discount interest
is
1 at time 0 is equivalent to the stream of m payments of
d
(m)
/m at times 0, 1/m, 2/m, . . . , (m−1)/m plus the payment
of 1 at time 1.
A useful algebraic exercise to confirm the displayed assertions is:
20 CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
Exercise 1.B. Verify that the present values at time 0 of the payment
streams with m interest payments in the displayed assertions are respectively
m

j=1
i
(m)
m
(1 +i)
−j/m
+(1 +i)
−1
and
m−1

j=0
d
(m)
m
(1 +i)
−j/m
+(1 +i)
−1
and that both are equal to 1. These identities are valid for all i > 0. 2
1.2.4 Variable Interest Rates
Now we formulate the generalization of these ideas to the case of non-constant
instantaneously varying, but known or observed, effective interest rate r(t)
at time t , corresponding to the instantaneous continuously compounded
nominal rate, or time-varying force of interest , δ(t) = ln(1+r(t)). Consider
the compounding of interest over successive intervals [b +kh, b + (k + 1)h],
where h = 1/m for large m, there is an essentially constant principal
amount over each interval of length 1/m. Since we assume the functions
r(t) and therefore ln(1 +δ(t)) are uniformly continuous in t, so that over
very short intervals [b +kh, b +(k +1)h] with instantaneous compounding,
the interest rate and its associated force of interest are essentially constant,
with accumulation factor over the interval given by e
hδ(kh)
. Therefore, if an
initial time b and duration τ > 0 are fixed and [mτ] = [τ/h] denotes the
largest integer ≤ mτ, we find that the continuous compounding of interest
over the time-interval [b, b + τ] results in an overall accumulation factor of
approximately
e
hδ(b)
e
hδ(b+h)
e
hδ(b+2h)
· · · e
hδ(b+([τ/h]−1)h)
exp
_
((τ −h[τ/h]) · δ(b +h[τ/h])
_
which has limit as m → ∞ equal to
exp
_
lim
m
1
m
[mτ]−1

k=0
δ(b +k/m)
_
= exp
_
_
t
0
δ(b +s) ds
_
The last step in this chain of equalities relates the concept of continuous
compounding to that of the Riemann integral. To specify continuous-time
varying interest rates in terms of instantaneous effective rates, we would
1.2. THEORY OF INTEREST 21
equate the last displayed formula for the accumulation factor over [b, b +τ]
to
exp
_
_
t
0
ln(1 +r(b +s)) ds
_
Next consider the case of deposits α
0
, α
1
, . . . , α
k
, . . . , α
n
made at times
0, h, . . . , kh, . . . , nh, where h = 1/m is the given compounding-period, and
wherenominal annualized instantaneous interest-rates δ(kh) (with compounding-
period h) apply to the accrual of interest on the interval [kh, (k +1)h). If
the accumulated bank balance just after time kh is denoted by B
k
, then
how can the accumulated bank balance be expressed in terms of α
j
and
δ(jh) ? Clearly
B
k+1
= B
k
· e
δ(kh)/m
+ α
k+1
, B
0
= α
0
The preceding difference equation can be solved in terms of successive sum-
mation and product operations acting on the sequences α
j
and δ(jh), as
follows. First define a function A
k
to denote the accumulated bank balance
at time kh for a unit invested at time 0 and earning interest with instan-
taneous nominal interest rates δ(jh) applying respectively over the whole
compounding-intervals [jh, (j + 1)h), j = 0, . . . , k −1. Then by definition,
A
k
satisfies a homogeneous equation analogous to the previous one, which
together with its solution is given by
A
k+1
= A
k
· e
δ(kh)/m
, A
0
= 1, A
k
=
k−1

j=0
e
δ(jh)/m
We now return to the idea of equivalent investments and present value of
a payment stream, as discussed in Section 1.2.2. Our object is to determine a
single deposit D at time 0 which is equivalent at time τ = nh to a stream
of deposits α
j
, j = 0, 1, 2, . . . , n, where all amounts accumulate according
to the continuously compounded instantaneous effective interest rate r(t)
and associated force of interest δ(t) = ln(1 + r(t)). By approximating the
continuous interest rate function r(t) by one which is constant on intervals
[kh, (k + 1)h), we have just calculated that an amount 1 at time 0
compounds to an accumulated amount A
n
at time τ = nh. Therefore, an
amount D at time 0 accumulates to D · A
n
at time τ, and in particular
D = 1/A
n
at time 0 accumulates to 1 at time τ. Note, as in (1.8)
22 CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
of Section 1.2.2, this single equivalent deposit D would be the same if the
accumulations were valued at any other time τ

> nh. Thus the present
value of 1 at time τ = nh is 1/A
n
. Now define G
k
to be the present
value of the stream of payments α
j
at time jh for j = 0, 1, . . . , k. Since
B
k
was the accumulated value just after time kh of the same stream of
payments, and since the present value at 0 of an amount B
k
at time kh
is just B
k
/A
k
, we conclude
G
k+1
=
B
k+1
A
k+1
=
B
k
exp(δ(km)/m)
A
k
exp(δ(km)/m)
+
α
k+1
A
k+1
, k ≥ 1 , G
0
= α
0
Thus G
k+1
−G
k
= α
k+1
/A
k+1
, and
G
k+1
= α
0
+
k

i=0
α
i+1
A
i+1
=
k+1

j=0
α
j
A
j
In summary, we have simultaneously found the solution for the accumulated
balance B
k
just after time kh and for the present value G
k
at time 0 :
G
k
=
k

i=0
α
i
A
i
, B
k
= A
k
· G
k
, k = 0, . . . , n
The formulas just developed can be used to give the internal rate of return
r over the time-interval [0, τ] of a unit investment which pays amount α
k
at times t
k
, k = 0, . . . , n, 0 ≤ t
k
≤ τ. This constant (effective) interest
rate r is the one such that
n

k=0
s
k
_
1 +r
_
−t
k
= 1
With respect to the constant interest rate r , the present value of a payment
α
k
at a time t
k
time-units in the future is α
k
· (1 +r)
−t
k
. Therefore the
stream of payments α
k
at times t
k
, (k = 0, 1, . . . , n) becomes equivalent,
for the uniquely defined interest rate r, to an immediate (time-0) payment
of 1.
1.2. THEORY OF INTEREST 23
Exercise 1.C. As an illustration of the notion of effective interest rate, or
internal rate of return, suppose that you are offered an investment option
under which an investment of 10, 000 made now is expected to pay 300
yearly for 5 years (beginning 1 year from the date of the investment), and then
800 yearly for the following five years, with the principal of 10, 000 returned
to you (if all goes well) exactly 10 years from the date of the investment (at
the same time as the last of the 800 payments. If the investment goes
as planned, what is the effective interest rate you will be earning on your
investment ?
Solution. As in all calculations of effective interest rate, the present value
ofthe payment-stream, at the unknown interest rate r = i
eff
, must be bal-
anced with the value (here 10, 000) which is invested. (That is because the
indicated payment stream is being regarded as equivalent to bank interest at
rate r.) The balance equation in the Example is obviously
10, 000 = 300
5

j=1
(1 + r)
−j
+ 800
10

j=6
(1 +r)
−j
+ 10, 000 (1 +r)
−10
The right-hand side can be simplified somewhat, in terms of the notation
x = (1 +r)
−5
, to
300
1 +r
_
1 −x
1 −(1 +r)
−1
_
+
800x
(1 +r)
_
1 −x
1 −(1 +r)
−1
_
+ 10000 x
2
=
1 −x
r
(300 + 800x) + 10000x
2
(1.11)
Setting this simplified expression equal to the left-hand side of 10, 000 does
not lead to a closed-form solution, since both x = (1+r)
−5
and r involve the
unknown r. Nevertheless, we can solve the equation roughly by ‘tabulating’
the values of the simplified right-hand side as a function of r ranging in
increments of 0.005 from 0.035 through 0.075. (We can guess that the
correct answer lies between the minimum and maximum payments expressed
as a fraction of the principal.) This tabulation yields:
r .035 .040 .045 .050 .055 .060 .065 .070 .075
(1.11) 11485 11018 10574 10152 9749 9366 9000 8562 8320
From these values, we can see that the right-hand side is equal to 10, 000
for a value of r falling between 0.05 and 0.055. Interpolating linearly to
24 CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
approximate the answer yields r = 0.050 +0.005 ∗ (10000 −10152)/(9749 −
10152) = 0.05189, while an accurate equation-solver finds r = 0.05186. For
example, the root-finding function in R is called uniroot , and the R code for
computing the effective interest rate in this Example is:
Rsolv = function(r) { x = (1+r)^(-5)
(1-x)*(300+800*x)/r + 10000*x^2 - 10000 }
uniroot(Rsolv, c(.035,.075))$root
[1] 0.05185676
1.2.5 Continuous-time Payment Streams
There is a completely analogous development for continuous-time deposit
streams with continuous compounding. Suppose D(t) to be the rate per
unit time at which savings deposits are made, so that if we take m to go to
∞ in the previous discussion, we have D(t) = lim
m→∞

[mt]
, where [·]
again denotes greatest-integer. Taking δ(t) to be the time-varying nominal
interest rate with continuous compounding, and B(t) to be the accumulated
balance as of time t (analogous to the quantity B
[mt]
= B
k
from before,
when t = k/m), we replace the previous difference-equation by
B(t +h) = B(t) (1 +hδ(t)) + hD(t) + o(h)
where o(h) denotes a remainder such that o(h)/h → 0 as h → 0.
Subtracting B(t) from both sides of the last equation, dividing by h, and
letting h decrease to 0, yields a differential equation at times t > 0 :
B

(t) = B(t) δ(t) +D(t) , A(0) = α
0
(1.12)
The method of solution of (1.12), which is the standard one from differential
equations theory of multiplying through by an integrating factor, again has
a natural interpretation in terms of present values. The integrating factor
1/A(t) = exp(−
_
t
0
δ(s) ds) is the present value at time 0 of a payment of
1 at time t, and the quantity B(t)/A(t) = G(t) is then the present value
of the deposit stream of α
0
at time 0 followed by continuous deposits at
rate D(t). The ratio-rule of differentiation yields
G

(t) =
B

(t)
A(t)

B(t) A

(t)
A
2
(t)
=
B

(t) − B(t) δ(t)
A(t)
=
D(t)
A(t)
1.3. EXERCISE SET 1 25
where the substitution A

(t)/A(t) ≡ δ(t) has been made in the third ex-
pression. Since G(0) = B(0) = α
0
, the solution to the differential equation
(1.12) becomes
G(t) = α
0
+
_
t
0
D(s)
A(s)
ds , B(t) = A(t) G(t)
Finally, the formula can be specialized to the case of a constant unit-rate
payment stream ( D(x) = 1, δ(x) = δ = ln(1 + i), 0 ≤ x ≤ T ) with
no initial deposit (i.e., α
0
= 0). By the preceding formulas, A(t) =
exp(t ln(1 +i)) = (1 +i)
t
, and the present value of such a payment stream
is
_
T
0
1 · exp(−t ln(1 +i)) dt =
1
δ
_
1 −(1 +i)
−T
_
Recall that the force of interest δ = ln(1 +i) is the limiting value obtained
from the nominal interest rate i
(m)
using the difference-quotient representa-
tion:
lim
m→∞
i
(m)
= lim
m→∞
exp((1/m) ln(1 +i)) − 1
1/m
= ln(1 +i)
The present value of a payment at time T in the future is then
_
1 +
i
(m)
m
_
−mT
= (1 +i)
−T
= exp(−δ T)
1.3 Exercise Set 1
The first homework set covers the basic definitions in two areas:
(i) probability as it relates to events defined from cohort life-tables, including
the theoretical machinery of population and conditional survival, distribu-
tion, and density functions and the definition of expectation; (ii) the theory
of interest and present values, with special reference to the idea of income
streams of equal value at a fixed rate of interest.
(1). For how long a time should $100 be left to accumulate at 5% interest
so that it will amount to twice the accumulated value (over the same time
period) of another $100 deposited at 3% ?
26 CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
(2). Use a calculator or computer to answer the following numerically:
(a) Suppose you sell for $6,000 the right to receive for 10 years the amount
of $1,000 per year payable quarterly (starting at the end of the first quarter).
What effective rate of interest makes this a fair sale price ? (You will have
to solve numerically or graphically, or interpolate a tabulation, to find it.)
(b) $100 deposited 20 years ago has grown at interest to $235. The
interest was compounded twice a year. What were the nominal and effective
interest rates ?
(c) How much should be set aside (the same amount each year) at the
beginning of each year for 10 years to amount to $1000 at the end of the 10th
year at the interest rate of part (b) ?
In the following problems, S(t) denotes the probability for a newborn
in a designated population to survive to exact age t . If a cohort life table
is under discussion, then the probability distribution relates to a randomly
chosen member of the newborn cohort.
(3). Assume that a population’s survival probability function is given by
S(t) = 0.1(100 −t)
1/2
, for 0 ≤ t ≤ 100.
(a) Find the probability that a life aged 0 will die between exact ages 19
and 36.
(b) Find the probability that a life aged 36 will die before exact age 51.
(4). For members of the poulation in Problem (3),
(a) Find the expected age at death of a newborn (life aged 0).
(b) Find the expected age at death of a life aged 20.
(5). Use the Illustrative Life-table (Table 1.1) to calculate the following
probabilities. (In each case, assume that the indicated span of years runs
from birthday to birthday.) Find the probability
(a) that a life aged 26 will live at least 30 more years;
(b) that a life aged 22 will die between ages 45 and 55;
(c) that a life aged 25 will die either before age 50 or after age 70.
1.3. EXERCISE SET 1 27
(6). In a special population, you are given the following facts:
(i) The probability that two independent lives, respectively aged 25 and
45, both survive 20 years is 0.7.
(ii) The probability that a life aged 25 will survive 10 years is 0.9.
Then find the probability that a life aged 35 will survive to age 65.
(7). Suppose that you borrowed $1000 at 6% effective rate, to be repaid
in 5 years in a lump sum, and that after holding the money idle for 1 year
you invested the money and earned 8% effective for theremaining four years.
What is the effective interest rate you earned (ignoring interest costs) over 5
years on the $1000 which you borrowed ? Taking interest costs into account,
what is the present value of your profit over the 5 years of the loan ? Also
re-do the problem if instead of repaying all principal and interest at the end
of 5 years, you must make a payment of accrued interest at the end of 3
years, with the additional interest and principal due in a single lump-sum at
the end of 5 years.
(8). Find the total present value at 5% APR of payments of $1 at the end
of 1, 3, 5, 7, and 9 years and payments of $2 at the end of 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10
years.
(9). Find the present value at time 0 at a 6% effective interest rate of a
series payments of 100 at times 1, 2, 3 and of 300 at times 6, 7, 8.
(10). Find the present value at time 0 of payments of 100 at ten successive
times 1, 2, . . . , 10 if the instanteous effective interest rate applying at all
times t in the time interval [0, 10] is r(t) = .07 −(.002)t.
(11). Find the internal rate of return (i.e., the equivaent constant effective
interest rate) over the time interval [0, 7] of an investment which pays bank
interest of 4% at times in [0, 5] if you make deposits of 1000 at each of
the times t = 0, 2, 4, if the interest rate earned on the time interval [5, 7]
is 6%, and if the total balance is withdrawn at time 7.
(12). (i) Find the payment amount K such that a loan of 10, 000 at a 7%
effective annual interest rate is repaid in exactly three payments consisting
of an amount K at times 1 and 3 years and of 2K at 5 years.
28 CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
(ii) After finding K in part (i), decompose each of the three loan repay-
ment amounts K, K, 2K at respective times, 1, 3, 5 into their principal
and interest portions.
1.4 Worked Examples
Example 1. How many years does it take for money to triple in value at
interest rate i ?
The equation to solve is 3 = (1 + i)
t
, so the answer is ln(3)/ ln(1 +i),
with numerical answer given by
t =
_
_
_
22.52 for i = 0.05
16.24 for i = 0.07
11.53 for i = 0.10
Example 2. Suppose that a sum of $1000 is borrowed for 5 years at 5%,
with interest deducted immediately in a lump sum from the amount borrowed,
and principal due in a lump sum at the end of the 5 years. Suppose further
that the amount received is invested and earns 7%. What is the value of the
net profit at the end of the 5 years ? What is its present value (at 5%) as
of time 0 ?
First, the amount received by the borrower at time 0 is
1000 (1 − d)
5
= 1000/(1.05)
5
= 783.53, where d = .05/1.05, since the
amount received should compound to precisely the principal of 1000 at 5%
interest in 5 years. Next, the compounded value of 783.53 for 5 years at
7% is 783.53 (1.07)
5
= 1098.94, so the net profit at the end of 5 years, after
paying off the principal of 1000, is 98.94. The present value of the profit
ought to be calculated with respect to the ‘going rate of interest’, which in
this problem is presumably the rate of 5% at which the money is borrowed,
so is 98.94/(1.05)
5
= 77.52.
Example 3. For the following small cohort life-table (first 3 columns) with 5
age-categories, find the probabilities for all values of [T], both uncondition-
ally and conditionally for lives aged 2, and find the expectation of both [T]
and (1.05)
−[T]−1
.
1.4. WORKED EXAMPLES 29
The basic information in the table is the first column l
x
of numbers
surviving. Then d
x
= l
x
− l
x+1
for x = 0, 1, . . . , 4. The random variable
T is the life-length for a randomly selected individual from the age=0 cohort,
and therefore Pr([T] = x) = Pr(x ≤ T < x + 1) = d
x
/l
0
. The conditional
probabilities given survivorship to age-category 2 are simply the ratios with
numerator d
x
for x ≥ 2 , and with denominator l
2
= 65.
x l
x
d
x
Pr([T] = x) Pr([T] = x|T ≥ 2) 1.05
−x−1
0 100 20 0.20 0 0.95238
1 80 15 0.15 0 0.90703
2 65 10 0.10 0.15385 0.86384
3 55 15 0.15 0.23077 0.82770
4 40 40 0.40 0.61538 0.78353
5 0 0 0 0 0.74622
In terms of the columns of this table, we evaluate from the definitions and
formula (1.3)
E([T]) = 0 · (0.20) + 1 · (0.15) + 2 · (0.10) + 3 · (0.15) + 4 · (0.40) = 2.4
E([T] | T ≥ 2) = 2 · (0.15385) + 3 · (0.23077) + 4 · (0.61538) = 3.4615
E(1.05
−[T]−1
) = 0.95238 · 0.20 + 0.90703 · 0.15 + 0.86384 · 0.10 +
+0.8277 · 0.15 + 0.78353 · 0.40 = 0.8497
The expectation of [T] is interpreted as the average per person in the cohort
life-table of the number of completed whole years before death. The quantity
(1.05)
−[T]−1
can be interpreted as the present value at birth of a payment
of 1 to be made at the end of the year of death, and the final expectation
calculated above is the average of that present-value over all the individuals
in the cohort life-table, if the going rate of interest is 5%.
Example 4. Suppose that the death-rates q
x
= d
x
/l
x
for integer ages x in
a cohort life-table follow the functional form
q
x
=
_
4 · 10
−4
for 5 ≤ x < 30
8 · 10
−4
for 30 ≤ x ≤ 55
between the ages x of 5 and 55 inclusive. Find analytical expressions for
S(x), l
x
, d
x
at these ages if l
0
= 10
5
, S(5) = .96.
30 CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
The key formula expressing survival probabilities in terms of death-rates
q
x
is:
S(x + 1)
S(x)
=
l
x+1
l
x
= 1 −q
x
or
l
x
= l
0
· S(x) = (1 −q
0
)(1 −q
1
) · · · (1 −q
x−1
)
So it follows that for x = 5, . . . , 30,
S(x)
S(5)
= (1 −.0004)
x−5
, l
x
= 96000 · (0.9996)
x−5
so that S(30) = .940446, and for x = 31, . . . , 55,
S(x) = S(30) · (.9992)
x−30
= .940446 (.9992)
x−30
The death-counts d
x
are expressed most simply through the preceding
expressions together with the formula d
x
= q
x
l
x
.
1.5. USEFUL FORMULAS 31
1.5 Useful Formulas from Chapter 1
S(x) =
l
x
l
0
, d
x
= l
x
−l
x+1
p. 1
P(x ≤ T < x +k) = S(x) −S(x +k) =
l
x
−l
x+k
l
x
p. 2
f(t) = −S

(t) , S(y) −S(y +t) =
_
y+t
y
f(s) ds
p. 5
E
_
g(T)
¸
¸
¸ T ≥ x
_
=
1
S(x)
_

x
g(t) f(t) dt
p. 9
1 +i = 1 +i
eff
=
_
1 +
i
(m)
m
_
m
=
_
1 −
d
(m)
m
_
−m
= e
δ
p. 18
32 CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
Chapter 2
Theory of Interest and
Force of Mortality
The parallel development of Interest and Probability Theory topics continues
in this Chapter. For application in Insurance, we are preparing to value
uncertain payment streams in which times of payment may also be uncertain.
The interest theory allows us to express the present values of deterministic or
certain payment streams compactly, while the probability material prepares
us to find and interpret average or expected values of present values expressed
as functions of random lifetime variables.
This installment of the course covers: (a) further formulas and topics in
the pure (i.e., non-probabilistic) theory of interest, and (b) more discussion
of lifetime random variables, in particular of force of mortality or hazard-
rates, and theoretical families of life distributions.
2.1 More on Theory of Interest
In this Section, we define notations and find compact formulas for present
values of some standard payment streams. To this end, newly defined pay-
ment streams are systematically expressed in terms of previously considered
ones. There are two primary methods of manipulating one payment-stream
to give another for the convenient calculation of present values:
33
34 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
• First, if one payment-stream can be obtained from a second one pre-
cisely by delaying all payments by the same amount t of time, then
the present value of the first one is v
t
multiplied by the present value
of the second.
• Second, if a payment-stream A can be obtained as the superposition of
payment streams B and C, i.e., can be obtained by paying the sum of
the timed payment amounts defining the streams B and C, then the
present value of stream A is the sum of the present values of B and C.
The following subsection contains several useful applications of these meth-
ods. For another simple illustration, see Worked Example 2 at the end of the
Chapter.
2.1.1 Annuities & Actuarial Notation
The general present value formulas above will now be specialized to the case
of constant (instantaneous) interest rate r(t) ≡ i ≡ e
δ
at all times t ≥ 0,
and some very particular streams of payments s
j
at times t
j
, related
to periodic premium and annuity payments. The effective interest rate is
always denoted by i = i
eff
, and as before the m-times-per-year equivalent
nominal interest rate is denoted by i
(m)
. Also, from now on the standard
and convenient notation
v ≡ 1/(1 +i) = 1 /
_
1 +
i
(m)
m
_
m
will be used for the present value of a payment of 1 one year later.
(i) If s
0
= 0 and s
1
= · · · = s
nm
= 1/m in the discrete setting, where
m ≥ 1 denotes the number of payments per year, and t
j
= j/m, then the
payment-stream is called an immediate annuity, and its present value G
n
is given the notation a
(m)
n
and is equal, by the geometric-series summation
formula, to
m
−1
nm

j=1
_
1 +
i
(m)
m
_
−j
=
_
1 +
i
(m)
m
_
−1
1 −(1 +i
(m)
/m)
−nm
m(1 −(1 +i
(m)
/m)
−1
)
2.1. MORE ON THEORY OF INTEREST 35
which shows that
a
(m)
n
=
1 −((1 +i
(m)
/m)
−m
)
n
m(1 +i
(m)
/m−1)
=
1 −v
n
i
(m)
(2.1)
All of these immediate annuity values, for fixed v, n but varying m, are
roughly comparable because all involve a total payment of 1 per year.
Formula (2.1) shows that all of the values a
(m)
n
differ only through the factors
i
(m)
, which differ by only a few percent for varying m and fixed i, as shown
in Table 2.1. Recall from formula (1.9) that i
(m)
= m{(1 +i)
1/m
−1}.
If, instead of the payment stream defining the immediate annuity, s
0
=
1/m but s
nm
= 0, then nm deposits of 1/m are made at an arithmetic
progression of times from 1/m to n inclusive, and the present value notation
changes to ¨a
(m)
n
. The payment stream is then called an annuity-due, and
the present valueis given by any of the equivalent formulas
¨a
(m)
n
= (1 +
i
(m)
m
) a
(m)
n
=
1 −v
n
m
+ a
(m)
n
=
1
m
+a
(m)
n−1/m
(2.2)
The first of these formulas recognizes the annuity-due payment-stream as
identical to the annuity-immediate payment-stream shifted earlier by the
time 1/m and therefore worth more by the accumulation-factor (1+i)
1/m
=
1 +i
(m)
/m. The third expression in (2.2) represents the annuity-due stream
as being equal to the annuity-immediate stream with the payment of 1/m
at t = 0 added and the payment of 1/m at t = n removed. The final
expression says that if the time-0 payment is removed from the annuity-due,
the remaining stream coincides with the annuity-immediate stream consisting
of nm−1 (instead of nm) payments of 1/m.
In the limit as m → ∞ for fixed n, the notation a
n
denotes the
continuous annuity, that is, the present value of an annuity paid instanta-
neously at constant unit rate, with the limiting nominal interest-rate which
was shown in the previous chapter to be lim
m
i
(m)
= i
(∞)
= δ. The limiting
behavior of the nominal interest rate can be seen rapidly from the formula
i
(m)
= m
_
(1 +i)
1/m
− 1
_
= δ ·
exp(δ/m) −1
δ/m
since (e
z
−1)/z converges to 1 as z →0. Then by (2.1) and (2.2),
a
n
= lim
m→∞
¨ a
(m)
n
= lim
m→∞
a
(m)
n
=
1 −v
n
δ
(2.3)
36 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
Table 2.1: Values of nominal interest rates i
(m)
(upper number) and
d
(m)
(lower number), for various choices of effective annual interest rate
i and number m of compounding periods per year.
i = .02 .03 .05 .07 .10 .15
m = 2 .0199 .0298 .0494 .0688 .0976 .145
.0197 .0293 .0482 .0665 .0931 .135
3 .0199 .0297 .0492 .0684 .0968 .143
.0197 .0294 .0484 .0669 .0938 .137
4 .0199 .0297 .0491 .0682 .0965 .142
.0198 .0294 .0485 .0671 .0942 .137
6 .0198 .0296 .0490 .0680 .0961 .141
.0198 .0295 .0486 .0673 .0946 .138
12 .0198 .0296 .0489 .0678 .0957 .141
.0198 .0295 .0487 .0675 .0949 .139
Remark 2.1 The definition and formulas for the immediate annuity a
(m)
n
and the annuity-due ¨a
(m)
n
remain valid if nm but not necessarily n itself
is an integer. In the limit as m → ∞, the continuous annuity definition
a
n
and formula remain valid with any positive real number n. 2
A handy formula for annuity-due present values follows easily by recalling
that
1 −
d
(m)
m
=
_
1 +
i
(m)
m
_
−1
implies d
(m)
=
i
(m)
1 +i
(m)
/m
Then, by (2.2) and (2.1),
¨ a
(m)
n
= (1 −v
n
) ·
1 + i
(m)
/m
i
(m)
=
1 −v
n
d
(m)
(2.4)
In case m is 1, the superscript
(m)
is omitted from all of the annuity
notations. In the limit where n → ∞, the notations become a
(m)

and
¨ a
(m)

, and the annuities are called perpetuities (respectively immediate and
due) with present-value formulas obtained from (2.1) and (2.4) as:
a
(m)

=
1
i
(m)
, ¨a
(m)

=
1
d
(m)
(2.5)
2.1. MORE ON THEORY OF INTEREST 37
We now build some more general annuity-related present values out of
the standard functions a
(m)
n
and ¨a
(m)
n
.
(ii). Consider first the case of the increasing perpetual annuity-due,
denoted (I
(m)
¨ a)
(m)

, which is defined as the present value of a stream of
payments (k +1)/m
2
at times k/m, for k = 0, 1, . . . forever. Clearly the
present value is
(I
(m)
¨ a)
(m)

=

k=0
m
−2
(k + 1)
_
1 +
i
(m)
m
_
−k
Here are two methods to sum this series, the first purely mathematical, the
second based on actuarial intuition. First, without worrying about the strict
justification for differentiating an infinite series term-by-term,

k=0
(k + 1) x
k
=
d
dx

k=0
x
k+1
=
d
dx
x
1 −x
= (1 −x)
−2
for 0 < x < 1, where the geometric-series formula has been used to sum
the second expression. Therefore, with x = (1 + i
(m)
/m)
−1
and 1 − x =
(i
(m)
/m)/(1 +i
(m)
/m),
(I
(m)
¨a)
(m)

= m
−2
_
i
(m)
/m
1 +i
(m)
/m
_
−2
=
_
1
d
(m)
_
2
=
_
¨a
(m)

_
2
and (2.5) has been used in the last step. Another way to reach the same result
is to recognize the increasing perpetual annuity-due as 1/m multiplied by
the superposition of perpetuities-due ¨ a
(m)

paid at times 0, 1/m, 2/m, . . . ,
and therefore its present value must be ¨ a
(m)

· ¨a
(m)

. As an aid in recognizing
this equivalence, consider each annuity-due ¨ a
(m)

paid at a time j/m as
being equivalent to a stream of payments 1/m at time j/m, 1/m at
(j + 1)/m, etc. Putting together all of these payment streams gives a total
of (k+1)/m paid at time k/m, of which 1/m comes from the annuity-due
starting at time 0, 1/m from the annuity-due starting at time 1/m, up
to the payment of 1/m from the annuity-due starting at time k/m.
(iii). The increasing perpetual annuity-immediate (I
(m)
a)
(m)


the same payment stream as in the increasing annuity-due, but deferred by
a time 1/m — is related to the perpetual annuity-due in the obvious way
(I
(m)
a)
(m)

= v
1/m
(I
(m)
¨ a)
(m)

= (I
(m)
¨a)
(m)

_
(1 +i
(m)
/m) =
1
i
(m)
d
(m)
38 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
(iv). Now consider the increasing annuity-due of finite duration
n years. This is the present value (I
(m)
¨a)
(m)
n
of the payment-stream of
(k +1)/m
2
at time k/m, for k = 0, . . . , nm−1. Evidently, this payment-
stream is equivalent to (I
(m)
¨ a)
(m)

minus the sum of n multiplied by an
annuity-due ¨ a
(m)

starting at time n together with an increasing annuity-
due (I
(m)
¨a)
(m)

starting at time n. (To see this clearly, equate the payments
0 = (k + 1)/m
2
− n ·
1
m
− (k − nm + 1)/m
2
received at times k/m for
k ≥ nm.) Thus
(I
(m)
¨a)
(m)
n
= (I
(m)
¨ a)
(m)

_
1 −v
n
_
−n¨ a
(m)

v
n
= ¨ a
(m)

_
¨ a
(m)

−v
n
_
¨a
(m)

+n
_ _
= ¨ a
(m)

_
¨ a
(m)
n
− nv
n
_
where, in the last line, recall that v = (1 +i)
−1
= (1 +i
(m)
/m)
−m
and that
¨ a
(m)
n
= ¨ a
(m)

(1 − v
n
). The latter identity is easy to justify either by the
formulas (2.4) and (2.5) or by regarding the annuity-due payment stream as a
superposition of the payment-stream up to time n−1/m and the payment-
stream starting at time n. As an exercise, fill in details of a second, intuitive
verification, analogous to the second verification in pargraph (ii) above.
(v). The decreasing annuity (D
(m)
¨a)
(m)
n
is defined as (the present
value of) a stream of payments starting with n/m at time 0 and decreasing
by 1/m
2
after every time-period of 1/m, with no further payments at or
after time n. The easiest way to obtain the present value is through the
identity
(I
(m)
¨a)
(m)
n
+ (D
(m)
¨ a)
(m)
n
= (n +
1
m
) ¨ a
(m)
n
(2.6)
Again, as usual, the method of proving this is to observe that in the payment-
stream whose present value is given on the left-hand side, the payment
amount at each of the times j/m, for j = 0, 1, . . . , nm−1, is
j + 1
m
2
+ (
n
m

j
m
2
) =
1
m
(n +
1
m
)
2.1. MORE ON THEORY OF INTEREST 39
2.1.2 Loan Repayment: Mortgage, Bond, Sinking Fund
Perhaps the most common application of interest theory is the calculation
of the payment amounts needed to repay a loan according to a few standard
repayment plans. In ordinary consumer purchases or long-term fixerd-rate
loans on the purchase of a house, the usual repayment plan is a series of level
or equal payments made m times yearly (usually with m = 12, and usually
with first payment at time 0) for a total duration of n years, so that at the
last payment (the nm’th payment, at time n −1/m if the first payment was
made at time 0) the loan has been completely paid off. We refer to this kind
of repayment schedule with level payments as a mortgage loan.
1
Recall that the present value of a payment stream of amount c per year,
with c/m paid at times 1/m, 2/m, . . . , n − 1/m, n/m, is c a
(m)
n
. Thus,
if an amount L has been borrowed for a term of n years, to be repaid by
equal installments at the end of every period 1/m , at fixed nominal interest
rate i
(m)
, then the level payment c/m or installment payment amount
is obtained by equating L = c a
(m)
n
Mortgage Payment = L/(ma
(m)
n
) =
Li
(m)
m(1 −v
n
)
(2.7)
where v = 1/(1 +i) = (1 +i
(m)
/m)
−m
.
A second kind of plan to repay a loan is to pay equal amounts to cover only
the interest amounts accrued every 1/m year on the principal for a duration
of n years, with first payment made at time 1/m and last at time n, with the
principal (the original amount borrowed) also repaid in a lump sum at time
n. This arrangement is used by corporations or government agencies which
issue bonds: the borrowing agency receives the loan amount from investors
at time 0, called the face amount of the bond, and regularly issues interest
payments after every period of 1/m year (usually with m = 2 or 4), and
finally repays or redeems the face or principal amount of the bond at the end
of the n year term of the bond. (The regular interest payments used to be
called coupon payments because of small paper coupons attached to the paper
bond document, and which the investor would regularly redeem at a bank, at
scheduled times, for the interest payment amount.) The reader should look
1
In legal and historical terms, ‘mortgage’ refers to the way in which the promise to
repay is secured by the house or other property purchased with the amount borrowed.
40 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
back to Section 1.2.3 where loan repayment amounts were formally broken
down into interest and principal portions, in order to confirm the sense of this
bond repayment plan. Since each payment by the borrower at times k/m
for k = 1, 2, . . . , nm (apart from the final lump sum principal repayment)
consists of interest only (equal to the original face amount multiplied by
(1 + i)
1/m
− 1 = i
(m)
/m), each of the intermediate payments contains 0
principal portion, and the result of Exercise 1.A in Sec. 1.2.3 shows that the
original face amount or principal is also the principal or balance owed on the
loan just after each interest payment, up to the final redemption when the
principal is paid.
Now a corporation or governmental agency which borrows money from
investors by issuing a bond, will often obligate itself through a formal legal
arrangement to devote a certain category of income to a so-called sinking
fund, an investment account maintained by a trustee. Apart from the bond
interest payments at a contractual effective interst rate i made directly to
investors (the lenders), the borrowing agency will also pay regular amounts
at intervals of 1/m

year to the sinking fund trustee for the same term of n
years as the bond, with the intention that the sinking fund will accumulate
at its own possibly different investment interest rate i

to the principal or face
amount of the issued bond at time n, at which time the principal is repaid
directly to the bond investors. At (or just after) an intermediate times k/m,
the amount built up in the sinking fund is referred to as a reserve toward
the ultimate redemption of the principal of the bond. We will see, later in
this book, that insurance reserves generalize these deterministic reserves to
Insurances, where the future payouts are not determinstic but rather contin-
gent on the mortality experience of the portfolio of insured lives.
Remark 2.2 Note that, if a borrowed amount L is repaid by regular interest
payments and a sinking fund, and if the number of payments per year into
the fund is m

= m and the effective interest rate for the sinking fund
is i

= i, then evidently the sum of the regular m-times-yearly interest and
sinking fund payment at each time k/m is precisely the same as the mortgage
payment (2.7). For m

= m or i

= i, a separate calculation is needed,
leading to several exercises at the end of the Chapter. The following Exercise
with sketched solution gives an example.
2.1. MORE ON THEORY OF INTEREST 41
Exercise 2.A. A small city issues a bond for ten million dollars for ten years
at 4% nominal quarterly interest (m = 4) and creates a sinking fund into
which it will make annual deposits (m

= 1), from tax receipts, on which its
financial advisors claimit can safely earn an effective annual rate of i

= .055.
Find the amount of the level annual sinking fund deposit.
Solution of Exercise 2.A. Since the interest payments are made at the con-
tractual interest rate i (corresponding to i
(4)
= .04), the sinking fund must
appreciate to the loan amount of L = 10
7
at time t = 10. Therefore the
sinking fund present value at time 10 (equal to its present value at t = 0
accumulated by the factor (1 +i

)
10
must be equated to L = 10
7
. So the
annual sinking fund deposit D is found through the equality
L = 10
7
= (1 +i

)
10
· Da

10
= D
1 −(1.055)
−10
.055
1.055
10
where a

indicates that the annuity is calculated at interest rate i

.
2.1.3 Loan Amortization & Mortgage Refinancing
We analyze next the breakdown between principal and interest in repaying
a mortgage loan by level payments (2.7). Of the payment made at time
(k +1)/m, how much can be attributed to interest and how much to princi-
pal ? Consider the present value at time 0 of the debt for a unit (L = 1)
loan amount less the accumulated amounts paid through time k/m :
1 − (ma
(m)
k/m
) / (ma
(m)
n
) = 1 −
1 −v
k/m
1 −v
n
=
v
k/m
−v
n
1 −v
n
The remaining debt, per unit of loan amount, valued just after time k/m,
is denoted from now on by B
n, k/m
. It is greater than the displayed present
value at 0 by a factor (1 +i)
k/m
, so is equal to
B
n, k/m
= (1 +i)
k/m
v
k/m
−v
n
1 −v
n
=
1 −v
n−k/m
1 −v
n
(2.8)
The amount of interest for a loan amount of 1 after time 1/m is
(1 +i)
1/m
−1 = i
(m)
/m. Therefore the interest included in the payment at
42 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
(k + 1)/m is i
(m)
/m multiplied by the value B
n, k/m
of outstanding debt
just after k/m. Thus the next total payment of i
(m)
/(m(1 −v
n
)) consists
of the two parts
Amount of interest = m
−1
i
(m)
(1 −v
n−k/m
)/(1 −v
n
)
Amount of principal = m
−1
i
(m)
v
n−k/m
/(1 −v
n
)
By definition, the principal included in each payment is the amount of the
payment minus the interest included in it. These formulas show in particular
that the amount of principal repaid in each successive payment increases
geometrically in the payment number, which at first seems surprising. Note
as a check on the displayed formulas that the outstanding balance B
n,(k+1)/m
immediately after time (k + 1)/m is re-computed as B
n, k/m
minus the
interest paid at (k + 1)/m, or
1 −v
n−k/m
1 −v
n

i
(m)
m
v
n−k/m
1 −v
n
=
1 −v
n−k/m
(1 +i
(m)
/m)
1 −v
n
=
1 −v
n−(k+1)/m
1 −v
n
=
_
1 − a
(m)
(k+1)/m
_
a
(m)
n
_
v
−(k+1)/m
(2.9)
as was derived above by considering the accumulated value of amounts paid.
The general definition of the principal repaid in each payment is the excess
of the payment over the interest since the past payment on the total balance
due immediately following that previous payment.
2.1.4 Illustration on Mortgage Refinancing
Suppose that a 30–year, nominal-rate 8%, $100, 000 mortgage payable
monthly is to be refinanced at the end of 8 years for an additional 15 years
(instead of the 22 which would otherwise have been remaining to pay it
off) at 6%, with a refinancing closing-cost amount of $1500 and 2 points.
(The points are each 1% of the refinanced balance including closing costs,
and costs plus points are then extra amounts added to the initial balance
of the refinanced mortgage.) Suppose that the new pattern of payments is
to be valued at each of the nominal interest rates 6%, 7%, or 8%, due
to uncertainty about what the interest rate will be in the future, and that
these valuations will be taken into account in deciding whether to take out
the new loan.
2.1. MORE ON THEORY OF INTEREST 43
The monthly payment amount of the initial loan in this example was
$100, 000(.08/12)/(1 −(1 +.08/12)
−360
) = $733.76, and the present value as
of time 0 (the beginning of the old loan) of the payments made through the
end of the 8
th
year is ($733.76) · (12a
(12)
8
) = $51, 904.69. Thus the present
value, as of the end of 8 years, of the payments still to be made under the
old mortgage, is $(100, 000 −51, 904.69)(1 +.08/12)
96
= $91, 018.31. Thus,
if the loan were to be refinanced, the new refinanced loan amount would be
$91, 018.31 + 1, 500.00 = $92, 518.31. If 2 points must be paid in order to
lock in the rate of 6% for the refinanced 15-year loan, then this amount
is (.02)92518.31 = $1850.37 . The new principal balance of the refinanced
loan is 92518.31 +1850.37 = $94, 368.68, and this is the present value at a
nominal rate of 6% of the future loan payments, no matter what the term of
the refinanced loan is. The new monthly payment (for a 15-year duration) of
the refinanced loan is $94, 368.68(.06/12)/(1 −(1 +.06/12)
−180
) = $796.34.
For purposes of comparison, what is the present value at the current
going rate of 6% (nominal) of the continuing stream of payments under
the old loan ? That is a 22-year stream of monthly payments of $733.76,
as calculated above, so the present value at 6% is $733.76 · (12a
(12)
22
) =
$107, 420.21. Thus, if the new rate of 6% were really to be the correct
one for the next 22 years, and each loan would be paid to the end of its
term, then it would be a financial disaster not to refinance. Next, suppose
instead that right after re-financing, the economic rate of interest would be
a nominal 7% for the next 22 years. In that case both streams of payments
would have to be re-valued — the one before refinancing, continuing another
22 years into the future, and the one after refinancing, continuing 15 years
into the future. The respective present values (as of the end of the 8
th
year) at nominal rate of 7% of these two streams are:
Old loan: 733.76 (12a
(12)
22
) = $98, 700.06
New loan: 796.34 (12a
(12)
15
) = $88, 597.57
Even with these different assumptions, and despite closing-costs and points,
it is well worth re-financing.
44 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
Exercise 2.B. Suppose that you can forecast that you will in fact sell your
house in precisely 5 more years after the time when you are re-financing. At
the time of sale, you would pay off the cash principal balance, whatever it
is. Calculate and compare the present values (at each of 6%, 7%, and 8%
nominal interest rates) of your payment streams to the bank, (a) if you
continue the old loan without refinancing, and (b) if you re-finance to get
a 15-year 6% loan including closing costs and points, as described above.
2.1.5 Computational illustration in R
All of the calculations described above are very easy to program in any lan-
guage from Fortran to Mathematica, and also on a programmable calculator;
but they are also very handily organized within a spreadsheet, which seems
to be the way that MBA’s, bank-officials, and actuaries will learn to do them
from now on.
In this section, an R function (cf. Venables & Ripley 2002) is provided to
do some comparative refinancing calculations. Concerning the syntax of R,
the only explanation necessary at this point is that * denotes multiplication,
and

denotes exponentiation.
The function RefExmp given below calculates mortgage payments, bal-
ances for purposes of refinancing both before and after application of ad-
ministrative costs and points, and the present value under any interest rate
(not necessarily the ones at which either the original or refinanced loans are
taken out) of the stream of repayments to the bank up to and including the
lump-sum payoff which would be made, for example, at the time of selling
the house on which the mortgage loan was negotiated. The output of the
function is a list which, in each numerical example below, is displayed in
‘unlisted’ form, horizontally as a vector. Lines beginning with the symbol #
are comment-lines.
The outputs of the function are as follows. Oldpayment is the monthly
payment on the original loan of face-amount Loan at nominal interest i
(12)
=
OldInt for a term of OldTerm years. NewBal is the balance B
n, k/m
of for-
mula (2.8) for n = OldTerm, m = 12, and k/m = RefTim, and the
refinanced loan amount is a multiple 1+ Points of NewBal, which is equal
to RefBal + Costs. The new loan, at nominal interest rate NewInt, has
2.1. MORE ON THEORY OF INTEREST 45
R FUNCTION CALCULATING REFINANCE PAYMENTS & VALUES
RefExmp
function(Loan, OldTerm, RefTim, NewTerm, Costs, Points,
PayoffTim, OldInt, NewInt, ValInt)
{
# Function calculates present value of future payment stream
# underrefinanced loan.
# Loan = original loan amount;
# OldTerm = term of initial loan in years;
# RefTim = time in years after which to refinance;
# NewTerm = term of refinanced loan;
# Costs = fixed closing costs for refinancing;
# Points = fraction of new balance as additional costs;
# PayoffTim (no bigger than NewTerm) = time (from refinancing-
# time at which new loan balance is to be paid off in
# cash (eg at house sale);
# The three interest rates OldInt, NewInt, ValInt are
# nominal 12-times-per-year, and monthly payments
# are calculated.
vold = (1 + OldInt/12)^(-12)
Oldpaymt = ((Loan * OldInt)/12)/(1 - vold^OldTerm)
NewBal = (Loan * (1 - vold^(OldTerm - RefTim)))/
(1 - vold^OldTerm)
RefBal = (NewBal + Costs) * (1 + Points)
vnew = (1 + NewInt/12)^(-12)
Newpaymt = ((RefBal * NewInt)/12)/(1 - vnew^NewTerm)
vval = (1 + ValInt/12)^(-12)
Value = (Newpaymt * 12 * (1 - vval^PayoffTim))/ValInt +
(RefBal * vval^PayoffTim * (1 - vnew^(NewTerm -
PayoffTim)))/(1 - vnew^NewTerm)
list(Oldpaymt = Oldpaymt, NewBal = NewBal,
RefBal = RefBal, Newpaymt = Newpaymt, Value = Value)
}
46 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
monthly payments Newpaymt for a term of NewTerm years. The loan is to
be paid off PayoffTim years after RefTim when the new loan commences,
and the final output of the function is the present value at the start of the
refinanced loan with nominal interest rate ValInt of the stream of payments
made under the refinanced loan up to and including the lump sum payoff.
We begin our numerical illustration by reproducing the quantities calcu-
lated in the previous subsection:
> unlist(RefExmp(100000, 30, 8, 15, 1500, 0.02, 15,
0.08, 0.06, 0.06))
Oldpaymt NewBal RefBal Newpaymt Value
733.76 91018 94368 796.33 94368
Note that, since the payments under the new (refinanced) loan are here
valued at the same interest rate as the loan itself, the present value Value of
all payments made under the loan must be equal to the the refinanced loan
amount RefBal.
The comparisons of the previous Section between the original and refi-
nanced loans, at (nominal) interest rates of 6, 7, and 8 %, are all recapitulated
easily using this function. To use it, for example, in valuing the old loan at
7%, the arguments must reflect a ‘refinance’ with no costs or points for a
period of 22 years at nominal rate 6%, as follows:
> unlist(RefExmp(100000,30,8,22,0,0,22,0.08,0.08,0.07))
Oldpaymt NewBal RefBal Newpaymt Value
733.76 91018 91018 733.76 98701
(The small discrepancies between the values found here and in the previous
subsection are due to the rounding used there to express payment amounts
to the nearest cent.)
We consider next a numerical example showing break-even point for refi-
nancing by balancing costs versus time needed to amortize them.
Suppose that you have a 30-year mortage for $100,000 at nominal rate
i
(12)
= 9%, with level monthly payments, and that after 7 years of payments
you refinance to obtain a new 30-year mortgage at 7% nominal interest ( =
2.1. MORE ON THEORY OF INTEREST 47
i
(m)
for m = 12), with closing costs of $1500 and 4 points (i.e., 4% of the
total refinanced amount including closing costs added to the initial balance),
also with level monthly payments. Figuring present values using the new
interest rate of 7%, what is the time K (to the nearest month) such that
if both loans — the old and the new — were to be paid off in exactly K
years after the time (the 7-year mark for the first loan) when you would have
refinanced, then the remaining payment-streams for both loans from the time
when you refinance are equivalent (i.e., have the same present value from
that time) ?
We first calculate the present value of payments under the new loan.
As remarked above in the previous example, since the same interest rate is
being used to value the payments as is used in figuring the refinanced loan,
the valuation of the new loan does not depend upon the time K to payoff.
(It is figured here as though the payoff time K were 10 years.)
> unlist(RefExmp(1.e5, 30,7,30, 1500,.04, 10, 0.09,0.07,0.07))
Oldpaymt NewBal RefBal Newpaymt Value
804.62 93640 98946 658.29 98946
Next we compute the value of payments under the old loan, at 7% nominal
rate, also at payoff time K = 10. For comparison, the value under the
old loan for payoff time 0 (i.e., for cash payoff at the time when refinancing
would have occurred) coincides with the New Balance amount of $93640.
> unlist(RefExmp(1.e5, 30,7,23, 0,0, 10, 0.09,0.09,0.07))
Oldpaymt NewBal RefBal Newpaymt Value
804.62 93640 93640 804.62 106042
The values found in the same way when the payoff time K is successively
replaced by 4, 3, 3.167, 3.25 are 99979, 98946, 98593, 98951. Thus, the
payoff-time K at which there is essentially no difference in present value
at nominal 7% between the old loan or the refinanced loan with costs and
points (which was found to have Value 98946), is 3 years and 3 months
after refinancing.
48 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
2.2 Force of Mortality & Analytical Models
Up to now, the function S(t) called the survivor or survival function has
been defined to be equal to the life-table ratio l
x
/l
0
at all integer ages t = x,
and to be piecewise continuously differentiable for all positive real values of
t. Intuitively, for all positive real y and t, S(y) −S(y +t) is the fraction
of the initial life-table cohort which dies between ages y and y + t, and
(S(y) −S(y +t))/S(y) represents the fraction of those alive at exact age y
who fail before y +t. An equivalent representation is S(y) =
_

y
f(t) dt ,
where f(t) ≡ −S

(t) is called the failure density. If T denotes the random
variable which is the age at death for a newly born individual governed by
the same causes of failure as the life-table cohort, then Pr(T ≥ y) = S(y),
and according to the Fundamental Theorem of Calculus,
lim
→0+
P(y ≤ T ≤ y +)

= lim
→0+
1

_
y+
y
f(t) dt = f(y)
as long as the failure density is a continuous function.
Two further useful actuarial notations, often used to specify the theoret-
ical lifetime distribution, are:
t
p
y
= P
_
T ≥ y +t | T ≥ y
_
= S(y +t)/S(y)
and
t
q
y
= 1 −
t
p
y
= P
_
T ≤ y +t | T ≥ y
_
= (S(y) −S(y +t))/S(y)
The quantity
t
q
y
is referred to as the age-specific death rate for periods
of length t. In the most usual case where t = 1 and y = x is an integer,
the notation
1
q
x
is replaced by q
x
, and
1
p
x
is replaced by p
x
. The
rate q
x
would be estimated from the cohort life table as the ratio d
x
/l
x
of
those who die between ages x and x+1 as a fraction of those who reached
age x. The way in which this quantity varies with x is one of the most
important topics of study in actuarial science. For example, one important
way in which numerical analysis enters actuarial science is that one wishes
to interpolate the values
1
q
y
smoothly as a function of y. The topic called
“Graduation Theory” among actuaries is the mathematical methodology of
Interpolation and Spline-smoothing applied to the raw function q
x
= d
x
/l
x
.
2.2. FORCE OF MORTALITY & ANALYTICAL MODELS 49
To give some idea what a realistic set of death-rates looks like, Figure 2.1
pictures the age-specific 1-year death-rates q
x
for the simulated life-table
given as Table 1.1 on page 4. Additional granularity in the death-rates can
be seen in Figure 2.2, where the logarithms of death-rates are plotted. After
a very high death-rate during the first year of life (26.3 deaths per thousand
live births), there is a year-by-year decline in death-rates roughly from 1.45
per thousand in the second year to 0.34 per thousand in the eleventh year.
(But there were small increases in rate from ages 4 to 7 and from 8
to 9, which are as likely due to statistical irregularity as to real increases
in risk.) Between ages 11 and 40, there is an erratic but roughly linear
increase of death-rates per thousand from 0.4 to 3.0. However, at ages
beyond 40 there is a rapid increase in death-rates as a function of age.
As can be seen from Figure 2.2, the values q
x
seem to increase roughly
as a power c
x
where c ∈ [1.08, 1.10]. (Compare this behavior with the
Gompertz-Makeham Example (v) below.) This exponential behavior of the
age-specific death-rate for large ages suggests that the death-rates pictured
could reasonably be extrapolated to older ages using the formula
q
x
≈ q
78
· (1.0885)
x−78
, x ≥ 79 (2.10)
where the number 1.0885 was found as log(q
78
/q
39
)/(78 −39).
Now consider the behavior of

q
x
as gets small. It is clear that

q
x
must also get small, roughly proportionately to , since the probability of
dying between ages x and x + is approximately f(x) when gets
small.
Definition: The limiting death-rate

q
x
/ per unit time as 0 is
called by actuaries the force of mortality µ(x). In reliability theory or
biostatistics, the same function is called the failure intensity, failure rate, or
hazard intensity.
The reasoning above shows that for small ,

q
y

=
1
S(y)
_
y+
y
f(t) dt −→
f(y)
S(y)
, 0
Thus
µ(y) =
f(y)
S(y)
=
−S

(y)
S(y)
= −
d
dy
ln(S(y))
50 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY



• • • • • • • • • • • • • •
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
• • • •
• •


• •



• •




• •
























Age-Specific Death Rates for Illustrative Life Table
Age in Years
A
g
e
-
S
p
e
c
i
f
i
c

D
e
a
t
h

R
a
t
e
0 20 40 60 80
0
.
0
0
.
0
2
0
.
0
4
0
.
0
6
0
.
0
8
Figure 2.1: Plot of age-specific death-rates q
x
versus x, for the simulated
illustrative life table given in Table 1.1, page 4.
2.2. FORCE OF MORTALITY & ANALYTICAL MODELS 51



• •
• •
















• •
• •















• •









• •












• •
• •








Logarithm of Death-Rates versus Age
Age in years
l
o
g
(
D
e
a
t
h

r
a
t
e
)
0 20 40 60 80
-
8
-
7
-
6
-
5
-
4
-
3
for Illustrative Simulated Life-Table
Figure 2.2: Plot of logarithm log(q
x
) of age-specific death-rates as a function
of age x, for the simulated illustrative life table given in Table 1.1, page 4.
The rates whose logarithms are plotted here are the same ones shown in
Figure 2.1.
52 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
where the chain rule for differentiation was used in the last step. Replacing
y by t and integrating both sides of the last equation between 0 and y,
we find
_
y
0
µ(t) dt =
_
−ln(S(t))
_
y
0
= −ln(S(y))
since S(0) = 1. Similarly,
_
y+t
y
µ(s) ds = lnS(y) −lnS(y +t)
Now exponentiate to obtain the useful formulas
S(y) = exp
_

_
y
0
µ(t) dt
_
,
t
p
y
=
S(y +t)
S(y)
= exp
_

_
y+t
y
µ(s) ds
_
Examples:
(i) If S(t) = (ω −t)/ω for 0 ≤ t ≤ ω (the uniform failure distribution
on [0, ω] ), then µ(t) = (ω −t)
−1
. Note that this hazard function increases
to ∞ as t increases to ω.
(ii) If S(t) = e
−µt
for t ≥ 0 (the exponential failure distribution on
[0, ∞) ), then µ(t) = µ is constant.
(iii) If S(t) = exp(−λt
γ
) for t ≥ 0, then mortality follows the Weibull
life distribution model with shape parameter γ > 0 and scale parameter λ.
The force of mortality takes the form
µ(t) = λγ t
γ−1
This model is very popular in engineering reliability. It has the flexibility
that by choice of the shape parameter γ one can have
(a) (γ > 1) failure rate increasing as a function of x
(b) ( γ = 1) constant failure rate (exponential model), or
(c) (0 < γ < 1) decreasing failure rate.
2.2. FORCE OF MORTALITY & ANALYTICAL MODELS 53
But what one cannot have, in the examples considered so far, is a force-of-
mortality function which decreases on part of the time-axis and increases
elsewhere.
(iv) Two other models for positive random variables which are popular
in various statistical applications are the Gamma, with
S(y) =
_

y
β
α
t
α−1
e
−βt
dt /
_

0
z
α−1
e
−z
dz , α, β > 0
and the Lognormal, with
S(y) = 1 −Φ
_
lny −m
σ
_
, m real, σ > 0
where
Φ(z) ≡
1
2
+
_
z
0
e
−u
2
/2
du


is called the standard normal distribution function. In the Gamma case,
the expected lifetime is α/β, while in the Lognormal, the expectation is
exp(m + σ
2
/2). Neither of these last two examples has a convenient or
interpretable force-of-mortality function.
Increasing force of mortality intuitively corresponds to aging, where the
causes of death operate with greater intensity or effect at greater ages. Con-
stant force of mortality, which is easily seen from the formula S(y) =
exp(−
_
y
0
µ(t) dt) to be equivalent to exponential failure distribution, would
occur if mortality arose only from pure accidents unrelated to age. Decreas-
ing force of mortality, which really does occur in certain situations, reflects
what engineers call “burn-in”, where after a period of initial failures due to
loose connections and factory defects the nondefective devices emerge and
exhibit high reliability for a while. The decreasing force of mortality reflects
the fact that the devices known to have functioned properly for a short while
are known to be correctly assembled and are therefore highly likely to have a
standard length of operating lifetime. In human life tables, infant mortality
corresponds to burn-in: risks of death for babies decrease markedly after the
one-year period within which the most severe congenital defects and diseases
of infancy manifest themselves. Of course, human life tables also exhibit an
aging effect at high ages, since the high-mortality diseases like heart disease
and cancer strike with greatest effect at higher ages. Between infancy and
54 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
late middle age, at least in western countries, hazard rates are relatively flat.
This pattern of initial decrease, flat middle, and final increase of the force-
of-mortality, seen clearly in Figure 2.1, is called a bathtub shape and requires
new survival models.
As shown above, the failure models in common statistical and reliability
usage either have increasing force of mortality functions or decreasing force of
mortality, but not both. Actuaries have developed an analytical model which
is somewhat more realistic than the preceding examples for human mortalty
at ages beyond childhood. While the standard form of this model does not
accommodate a bathtub shape for death-rates, a simple modification of it
does.
Example (v). (Gompertz-Makeham forms of the force of mortality). Sup-
pose that µ(y) is defined directly to have the form A + Bc
y
. (The Bc
y
term was proposed by Gompertz, the additive constant A by Makeham.
Thus the Gompertz force-of-mortality model is the special case with A = 0,
or µ(y) = Bc
y
.) By choice of the parameter c as being respectively
greater than or less than 1, one can arrange that the force-of-mortality
curve either be increasing or decreasing. Roughly realistic values of c for
human mortality will be only slightly greater than 1: if the Gompertz
(non-constant) term in force-of-mortality were for example to quintuple in
20 years, then c ≈ 5
1/20
= 1.084, which may be a reasonable value except
for very advanced ages. (Compare the comments made in connection with
Figures 2.1 and 2.2: for middle and higher ages in the simulated illustrative
life table of Table 1.1, which corresponds roughly to US male mortality of
around 1960, the figure of c was found to be roughly 1.09.) Note that in
any case the Gompertz-Makeham force of mortality is strictly convex (i.e.,
has strictly positive second derivative) when B > 0 and c = 1. The
Gompertz-Makeham family could be enriched still further, with further ben-
efits of realism, by adding a linear term Dy. If D < −B ln(c), with
0 < A < B, c > 1, then it is easy to check that
µ(y) = A + Bc
y
+ Dy
has a bathtub shape, initially decreasing and later increasing.
Figures 2.3 and 2.4 display the shapes of force-of-mortality functions (iii)-
(v) for various parameter combinations chosen in such a way that the ex-
2.2. FORCE OF MORTALITY & ANALYTICAL MODELS 55
pected lifetime is 75 years. This restriction has the effect of reducing the
number of free parameters in each family of examples by 1. One can
see from these pictures that the Gamma and Weibull families contain many
very similar shapes for force-of-mortality curves, but that the lognormal and
Makeham families are quite different.
Figure 2.5 shows survival curves from several analytical models plotted on
the same axes as the 1959 US male life-table data from which Table 1.1 was
simulated. The previous discussion about bathtub-shaped force of mortality
functions should have made it clear that none of the analytical models pre-
sented could give a good fit at all ages, but the Figure indicates the rather
good fit which can be achieved to realistic life-table data at ages 40 and
above. The models fitted all assumed that S(40) = 0.925 and that for lives
aged 40, T −40 followed the indicated analytical form. Parameters for all
models were determined from the requirements of median age 72 at death
(equal by definition to the value t
m
for which S(t
m
) = 0.5) and probability
0.04 of surviving to age 90. Thus, all four plotted survival curves have been
designed to pass through the three points (40, 0.925), (72, 0.5), (90, 0.04).
Of the four fitted curves, clearly the Gompertz agrees most closely with the
plotted points for 1959 US male mortality. The Gompertz curve has param-
eters B = 0.00346, c = 1.0918, the latter of which is close to the value
1.0885 used in formula (2.10) to extrapolate the 1959 life-table death-rates
to older ages.
2.2.1 Comparison of Forces of Mortality
What does it mean to say that one lifetime, with associated survival function
S
1
(t), has hazard (i.e. force of mortality) µ
1
(t) which is a constant multiple
κ at all ages of the force of mortality µ
2
(t) for a second lifetime with
survival function S
2
(t) ? It means that the cumulative hazard functions are
proportional, i.e.,
−lnS
1
(t) =
_
t
0
µ
1
(x)dx =
_
t
0
κµ
2
(x)dx = κ(−lnS
2
(t))
and therefore that
S
1
(t) = (S
2
(t))
κ
, all t ≥ 0
56 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
Weibull(alpha,lambda)
Age (years)
H
a
z
a
r
d
0 20 40 60 80 100
0
.
0
0
.
0
0
5
0
.
0
1
0
0
.
0
1
5
0
.
0
2
0
0
.
0
2
5
alpha=1
alpha=0.7
alpha=1.3
alpha=1.6
alpha=2
Gamma(beta,lambda)
Age (years)
H
a
z
a
r
d
0 20 40 60 80 100
0
.
0
0
.
0
0
5
0
.
0
1
0
0
.
0
1
5
0
.
0
2
0
0
.
0
2
5
beta=1
beta=0.7
beta=1.3
beta=1.6
beta=2
Figure 2.3: Force of Mortality Functions for Weibull and Gamma Probability
Densities. In each case, the parameters are fixed in such a way that the
expected survival time is 75 years.
2.2. FORCE OF MORTALITY & ANALYTICAL MODELS 57
Lognormal(mu,sigma^2)
Age (years)
H
a
z
a
r
d
0 20 40 60 80 100
0
.
0
0
.
0
0
5
0
.
0
1
0
0
.
0
1
5
0
.
0
2
0
0
.
0
2
5
sigma=0.2
sigma=0.4
sigma=0.6
sigma=1.6
sigma=2
Makeham(A,B,c)
Age (years)
H
a
z
a
r
d
0 20 40 60 80 100
0
.
0
0
.
0
0
5
0
.
0
1
0
0
.
0
1
5
0
.
0
2
0
0
.
0
2
5
A=0.0018, B=0.0010, c=1.002
A=0.0021,B=0.0070, c=1.007
A=0.003, B=0.0041, c=1.014
A=0.0041, B=0.0022, c=1.022
Figure 2.4: Force of Mortality Functions for Lognormal and Makeham Den-
sities. In each case, the parameters are fixed in such a way that the expected
survival time is 75 years.
58 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
Plots of Theoretical Survival Curves
Age (years)
S
u
r
v
i
v
a
l

P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
0
.
0
0
.
2
0
.
4
0
.
6
0
.
8
• •






































Plotted points from US 1959 male life-table
Lognormal(3.491, .246^2)
Weibull(3.653, 1.953e-6)
Gamma(14.74, 0.4383)
Gompertz(3.46e-3, 1.0918)
Figure 2.5: Theoretical survival curves, for ages 40 and above, plotted as
lines for comparison with 1959 US male life-table survival probabilities plot-
ted as points. The four analytical survival curves — Lognormal, Weibull,
Gamma, and Gompertz — are taken as models for age-at-death minus 40,
so if S
theor
(t) denotes the theoretical survival curve with indicated parame-
ters, the plotted curve is (t, 0.925 · S
theor
(t −40)). The parameters of each
analytical model were determined so that the plotted probabilities would be
0.925, 0.5, 0.04 respectively at t = 40, 72, 90.
2.2. FORCE OF MORTALITY & ANALYTICAL MODELS 59
This remark is of especial interest in biostatistics and epidemiology when
the factor κ is allowed to depend (e.g., by a regression model ln(κ) = β·Z )
on other measured variables (covariates) Z. This model is called the (Cox)
Proportional-Hazards model and is treated at length in books on survival data
analysis (Cox and Oakes 1984, Kalbfleisch and Prentice 1980) or biostatistics
(Lee 1992).
Example. Consider a setting in which there are four subpopulations of the
general population, categorized by the four combinations of values of two
binary covariates Z
1
, Z
2
= 0, 1. Suppose that these four combinations have
respective conditional probabilities for lives aged x (or relative frequencies in
the general population aged x)
P
x
(Z
1
= Z
2
= 0) = 0.15 , P
x
(Z
1
= 0, Z
2
= 1) = 0.2
P
x
(Z
1
= 1, Z
2
= 0) = 0.3 , P
x
(Z
1
= Z
2
= 1) = 0.35
and that for a life aged x and all t > 0,
Pr(T ≥ x +t | T ≥ x, Z
1
= z
1
, Z
2
= z
2
) = exp(−2.5 e
0.7z
1
−.8z
2
t
2
/20000)
It can be seen from the conditional survival function just displayed that the
forces of mortality at ages greater than x are
µ(x +t) = (2.5 e
0.7z
1
−.8z
2
) t/10000
so that the force of mortality at all ages is multiplied by e
0.7
= 2.0138 for
individuals with Z
1
= 1 versus those with Z
1
= 0, and is multiplied by
e
−0.8
= 0.4493 for those with Z
2
= 1 versus those with Z
2
= 0. The effect
on age-specific death-rates is approximately the same. Direct calculation
shows for example that the ratio of age-specific death rate at age x+20 for
individuals in the group with (Z
1
= 1, Z
2
= 0) versus those in the group with
(Z
1
= 0, Z
2
= 0) is not precisely e
0.7
= 2.014, but rather
1 −exp(−2.5e
0.7
((21
2
−20
2
)/20000)
1 −exp(−2.5((21
2
−20
2
)/20000)
= 2.0085
Various calculations, related to the fractions of the surviving population at
various ages in each of the four population subgroups, can be performed
easily . For example, to find
Pr(Z
1
= 0, Z
2
= 1 | T ≥ x + 30)
60 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
we proceed in several steps (which correspond to an application of Bayes’
rule, viz. Hogg and Tanis 1997, sec. 2.5, or Devore 2007):
Pr(T ≥ x+30, Z
1
= 0 Z
2
= 1| T ≥ x) = 0.2 exp(−2.5e
−0.8
30
2
20000
) = 0.1901
and similarly
Pr(T ≥ x + 30 | T ≥ x) = 0.15 exp(−2.5(30
2
/20000)) + 0.1901 +
+ 0.3 exp(−2.5 ∗ e
0.7
30
2
20000
) + 0.35 exp(−2.5e
0.7−0.8
30
2
20000
) = 0.8795
Thus, by definition of conditional probabilities (restricted to the cohort of
lives aged x), taking ratios of the last two displayed quantities yields
Pr(Z
1
= 0, Z
2
= 1 | T ≥ x + 30) =
0.1901
0.8795
= 0.2162
2
In biostatistics and epidemiology, the measured variables Z = (Z
1
, . . . , Z
p
)
recorded for each individual in a survival study might be: indicator of a spe-
cific disease or diagnostic condition (e.g., diabetes, high blood pressure, spe-
cific electrocardiogram anomaly), quantitative measurement of a risk-factor
(dietary cholesterol, percent caloric intake from fat, relative weight-to-height
index, or exposure to a toxic chemical), or indicator of type of treatment or
intervention. In these fields, the objective of such detailed models of covari-
ate effects on survival can be: to correct for incidental individual differences
in assessing the effectiveness of a treatment; to create a prognostic index for
use in diagnosis and choice of treatment; or to ascertain the possible risks and
benefits for health and survival from various sorts of life-style interventions.
The multiplicative effects of various risk-factors on age-specific death rates
are often highlighted in the news media.
In an insurance setting, categorical variables for risky life-styles, occupa-
tions, or exposures might be used in risk-rating, i.e., in individualizing insur-
ance premiums. While risk-rating is used routinely in casualty and property
insurance underwriting, for example by increasing premiums in response to
recent claims or by taking location into account, it can be politically sensi-
tive in a life-insurance and pension context. In particular, while differences
2.3. EXERCISE SET 2 61
in mortality by gender and to some extgent by family health history can
be used in calculating insurance and annuity premiums, as can certain life-
style factors like smoking, it is currently illegal to use racial differences and
differences based on genetic testing in this way.
All life insurers must be conscious of the extent to which their policyhold-
ers as a group differ from the general population with respect to mortality.
Insurers can collect special mortality tables on special groups, such as em-
ployee groups or voluntary organizations, and regression-type models like the
Cox proportional-hazards model may be useful in quantifying group mortal-
ity differences when the special-group mortality tables are not based upon
large enough cohorts for long enough times to be fully reliable. See Chapter
6, Section 4, for discussion about the modification of insurance premiums for
select groups.
2.3 Exercise Set 2
(1). The sum of the present value of $1 paid at the end of n years and
$1 paid at the end of 2n years is $1. Find (1 +r)
2n
, where r = annual
interest rate, compounded annually.
(2). Suppose that an individual aged 20 has random lifetime Z with
continuous density function
f
(
t) =
1
360
_
1 +
t
10
_
, for 20 ≤ t ≤ 80
and 0 for other values of t. (The random variable Z in this problem is a
particular type of age-at-death variable T conditioned on being ≥ 20.)
(a) If this individual has a contract with your company that you must
pay his heirs 10
6
· (1.4 −Z/50) dollars at the exact date of his death if this
occurs between ages 20 and 70, then what is the expected payment ?
(b) If the value of the death-payment described in (a) should properly be
discounted by the factor exp(−0.08 · (Z −20)), i.e. by the nominal interest
rate of e
0.08
− 1 per year) to calculate the present value of the payment,
then what is the expected present value of the payment under the insurance
contract ?
62 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
(3). Suppose that a continuous random variable T has hazard rate function
(= force of mortality)
h(t) = 10
−3
·
_
7.0 −0.5t + 2e
t/20
_
, t > 0
This is a legitimate hazard rate of Gompertz-Makeham type since its mini-
mum, which occurs at t = 20 ln(5), is (17−10 ln(5)) · 10
−4
= 9.1 · 10
−5
> 0.
(a) Construct a cohort life-table with h(t) as “force of mortality”,
based on integer ages up to 70 and cohort-size (= radix) l
0
= 10
5
. (Give
selected numerical entries, preferably calculated by means of a little computer
program. If you do the arithmetic using hand-calculators and/or tables, give
only the values for ages which are multiples of 10.)
(b) Find the probability that the random variable T exceeds 30, given
that it exceeds 3. Hint: find a closed-form formula for S(t) = P(T ≥ t).
(4). Do the Mortgage-Refinancing exercise given as Exercise 2.B in the
Illustration on mortgage refinancing at the end of Section 2.1.
(5). (a) The mortality pattern of a certain population may be described as
follows: out of every 98 lives born together, one dies annually until there
are no survivors. Find a simple function that can be used as S(x) for this
population, and find the probability that a life aged 30 will survive to attain
age 35.
(b) Suppose that for x between ages 12 and 40 in a certain population,
10% of the lives aged x die before reaching age x+1 . Find a simple function
that can be used as S(x) for this population, and find the probability that
a life aged 30 will survive to attain age 35.
(6). Suppose that a survival distribution (i.e., survival function based on
a cohort life table) has the property that
1
p
x
= γ · (γ
2
)
x
for some fixed γ
between 0 and 1, for every real ≥ 0. What does this imply about S(x) ?
(Give as much information about S as you can.)
(7). If the instantaneous interest rate is r(t) = 0.01 · t for 0 ≤ t ≤ 3,
then find the equivalent single effective rate of interest for money invested at
interest throughout the interval 0 ≤ t ≤ 3.
2.3. EXERCISE SET 2 63
(8). Find the accumulated value of $100 at the end of 15 years if the
nominal interest rate compounded quarterly (i.e., i
(4)
) is 8% for the first 5
years, if the effective rate of discount is 7% for the second 5 year interval (i.e.
the interval ranging from time 5 to 10), and if the nominal rate of discount
compounded semiannually (m = 2) is 6% for the third 5 year interval.
(9). Suppose that you borrow $1000 for 3 years at 6% effective rate, to be
repaid in level payments every six months (twice yearly).
(a) Find the level payment amount P.
(b) What is the present value of the payments you will make if you skip
the 2nd and 4th payments ? (You may express your answer in terms of P. )
(10). A survival function has the form S(t) = max(0,
c−t
c+t
). If a mortality
table is derived from this survivalfunction with a radix l
0
of 100,000 at
age 0, and if l
35
= 44, 000 :
(i) What is the terminal age of the table ?
(ii) What is the probability of surviving from birth to age 60 ?
(iii) What is the probability of a person at exact age 10 dying between
exact ages 30 and 45 ?
(11). A separate life table has been constructed for each calendar year of
birth, Y , beginning with Y = 1950. The mortality functions for the
various tables are denoted by the appropriate superscript
Y
. For each Y
and for all ages t
µ
Y
(t) = A · k(Y ) + Bc
t
, p
Y +1
t
= (1 +r) p
Y
t
where k is a function of Y alone and A, B, r are constants (with r > 0).
If k(1950) = 1, then derive a general expression for k(Y ).
(12). A standard mortality table follows Makeham’s Law with force of
mortality
µ(t) = A + Bc
t
at all ages t
A separate, higher-risk mortality table also follows Makeham’s Law with
64 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
force of mortality
µ

(t) = A

+ B

c
t
at all ages t
with the same constant c. If for all starting ages the probability of surviving
6 years according to the higher-risk table is equal to the probability of
surviving 9 years according to the standard table, then express each of A

and B

in terms of A, B, c.
(13). A homeowner borrows $100, 000 at effective annual rate 7% from
a bank, agreeing to repay by 30 equal yearly payments beginning one year
from the time of the loan.
(a) How much is each payment ?
(b) Suppose that after paying the first 3 yearly payments, the homeowner
misses the next two (i.e. pays nothing on the 4
th
and 5
th
anniversaries of
the loan). Find the outstanding balance at the 6
th
anniversary of the loan,
figured at 7% ). This is the amount which, if paid as a lump sum at time
6, has present value together with the amounts already paid of $100, 000 at
time 0.
(14). A deposit of 300 is made into a fund at time t = 0. The fund pays
interest for the first three years at a nominal monthly rate d
(12)
of discount.
From t = 3 to t = 7, interest is credited according to the force of interest
δ
t
= 1/(3t + 3). As of time t = 7, the accumulated value of the fund is
574. Calculate d
(12)
.
(15). Calculate the price at which you would sell a $10, 000 30-year coupon
bond with nominal 6% semi-annual coupon (n = 30, m − 2, i
(m)
= 0.06),
15 years after issue, if for the next 15 years, the effective interest rate for
valuation is i
eff
= 0.07.
(16). A 6% ‘zero-coupon’ 30-year bond was issued exactly 15 years ago for
a face amount of $10, 000. This bond contractually entitles the bearer to
receive 30 years after the issue date the amount accumulated at i = i
eff
=
0.06 on the face amount. Calculate the fair price at which you would sell
this zero-coupon bond, if for the next 15 years, the effective interest rate will
be i

eff
= 0.07.
2.4. WORKED EXAMPLES 65
(17). Suppose that the borrower of a $100, 000 30-year loan with half-
yearly payments (m = 2) start in six months from the time of borrowing, and
with nominal interest rate i
(2)
= .04, has made all payments except for two
that he skipped, the 23’rd and 56’th payments. What lump-sum payment
did the borrower have to make at the end of 30 years, in addition to his final
payment, in order to pay off the loan completely ?
(18). In Problem (17), the missed payments did not result in any additional
fees or charges, only in continuing accrued interest on the amounts of the
missed payments. Suppose that the missed payments in (17) actually result
in late fees of $200 each of which is added to the balance at the time(s)
of missed payments. Now answer the same question as in (17) about the
amount of the final lump-sum payment required.
(19). One of the curves plotted in the first part of Figure 2.3 is the
lognormal(m, σ
2
) hazard intensity where σ = 1.3 is fixed and where m
was determined from it by the requirement that the expectation of survival
time was 75 years. Now find the value m associated with σ = 1.3 if the
median survival time is fixed at 72 years, and find the force of mortality for
this lognormal at 65 years.
(20). A small city issues a bond for twenty million dollars for ten years
at 5% nominal half-yearly interest (m = 2) and creates a sinking fund into
which it will make twice-yearly deposits (m

= 2), from its tax revenue.
(a) Find the amount of the level payment the city must make into the
sinking fund if the interest it earns on that fund is 5%, and find the reserve,
or accumulated balance, in the sinking fund after 6 years.
(b) Answer the same questions if the city knows it can earn 6% on the
money it deposits into its sinking fund.
2.4 Worked Examples
Example 1. How large must a half-yearly payment be in order that the stream
of payments starting immediately be equivalent (in present value terms) at
6% interest to a lump-sum payment of $5000, if the payment-stream is to
last (a) 10 years, (b) 20 years, or (c) forever ?
66 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
If the payment size is P, then the balance equation is
5000 = 2 P · ¨a
(2)
n
= 2 P (1 −1.06
−n
)/d
(2)
Since d
(2)
= 2(1 −1/

1.06) = 2 · 0.02871, the result is
P = (5000 · 0.02871)/(1 −1.06
−n
) = 143.57/(1 −1.06
−n
)
So the answer to part (c), in which n = ∞, is $143.57. For parts (a) and
(b), respectively with n = 10 and 20, the answers are $325.11, $208.62.
Example 2. Assume m is divisible by 2. Express in two differ-
ent ways the present value of the perpetuity of payments 1/m at times
1/m, 3/m, 5/m, . . . , and use either one to give a simple formula.
This example illustrates the general methods enunciated at the beginning
of Section 2.1. Observe first of all that the specified payment-stream is
exactly the same as a stream of payments of 1/m at times 0, 2/m, 4/m, . . .
forever, deferred by a time 1/m. Since this payment-stream starting at 0
is exactly one-half that of the stream whose present value is ¨a
(m/2)

, a first
present value expression is
v
1/m
(1/2) ¨ a
(m/2)

A second way of looking at the payment-stream at odd multiples of 1/m
is as the perpetuity-due payment stream ( 1/m at times k/m for all
k ≥ 0) minus the payment-stream discussed above of amounts 1/m at
times 2k/m for all nonnegative integers k. Thus the present value has the
second expression
¨ a
(m)

− (1/2) ¨ a
(m/2)

Equating the two expressions allows us to conclude that
(1/2) ¨ a
(m/2)

= ¨ a
(m)

_
(1 + v
1/m
)
Substituting this into the first of the displayed present-value expressions, and
using the simple expression 1/d
(m)
for the present value of the perpetuity-
due, shows that that the present value requested in the Example is
1
d
(m)
·
v
1/m
1 + v
1/m
=
1
d
(m)
(v
−1/m
+ 1)
=
1
d
(m)
(2 +i
(m)
/m)
and this answer is valid whether or not m is even.
2.4. WORKED EXAMPLES 67
Example 3. Suppose that you are negotiating a car-loan of $10, 000. Would
you rather have an interest rate of 4% for 4 years, 3% for 3 years, 2% for
2 years, or a cash discount of $500 ? Show how the answer depends upon
the interest rate with respect to which you calculate present values, and give
numerical answers for present values calculated at 6% and 8%. Assume that
all loans have monthly payments paid at the beginning of the month (e.g., the
4 year loan has 48 monthly payments paid at time 0 and at the ends of 47
succeeding months).
The monthly payments for an n-year loan at interest-rate i is 10000/
(12 ¨ a
(12)
n
) = (10000/12) d
(12)
/(1 − (1 + i)
−n
). Therefore, the present value
at interest-rate r of the n-year monthly payment-stream is
10000 ·
1 −(1 +i)
−1/12
1 −(1 +r)
−1/12
·
1 −(1 +r)
−n
1 −(1 +i)
−n
Using interest-rate r = 0.06, the present values are calculated as follows:
For 4-year 4% loan: $9645.77
For 3-year 3% loan: $9599.02
For 2-year 2% loan: $9642.89
so that the most attractive option is the cash discount (which would make
the present value of the debt owed to be $9500). Next, using interest-rate
r = 0.08, the present values of the various options are:
For 4-year 4% loan: $9314.72
For 3-year 3% loan: $9349.73
For 2-year 2% loan: $9475.68
so that the most attractive option in this case is the 4-year loan. (The cash
discount is now the least attractive option.)
Example 4. Suppose that the force of mortality µ(y) is specified for exact
ages y ranging from 5 to 55 as
µ(y) = 10
−4
· (20 −0.5|30 −y|)
Then find analytical expressions for the survival probabilities S(y) for exact
68 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
ages y in the same range, and for the (one-year) death-rates q
x
for integer
ages x = 5, . . . , 54, assuming that S(5) = 0.97.
The key formulas connecting force of mortality and survival function are
here applied separately on the age-intervals [5, 30] and [30, 55], as follows.
First for 5 ≤ y ≤ 30,
S(y) = S(5) exp(−
_
y
5
µ(z) dz) = 0.97 exp
_
−10
−4
(5(y−5)+0.25(y
2
−25))
_
so that S(30) = 0.97 e
−0.034375
= 0.93722, and for 30 ≤ y ≤ 55
S(y) = S(30) exp
_
−10
−4
_
y
30
(20 + 0.5(30 −z)) dz
_
= 0.9372 exp
_
−.002(y −30) + 2.5 · 10
−5
(y −30)
2
_
The death-rates q
x
therefore have two different analytical forms: first, in
the case x = 5, . . . , 29,
q
x
= S(x + 1)/S(x) = exp
_
−5 · 10
−5
(10.5 +x)
_
and second, in the case x = 30, . . . , 54,
q
x
= exp
_
−.002 + 2.5 · 10
−5
(2(x −30) + 1)
_
2.5. USEFUL FORMULAS FROM CHAPTER 2 69
2.5 Useful Formulas from Chapter 2
v = 1/(1 +i)
p. 34
a
(m)
n
=
1 −v
n
i
(m)
, ¨ a
(m)
n
=
1 −v
n
d
(m)
pp. 35–35
a
(m)
n
= v
1/m
¨a
(m)
n
p. 35
¨ a
(∞)
n
= a
(∞)
n
= a
n
=
1 −v
n
δ
p. 35
a
(m)

=
1
i
(m)
, ¨a
(m)

=
1
d
(m)
p. 36
(I
(m)
¨a)
(m)
n
= ¨ a
(m)

_
¨ a
(m)
n
− nv
n
_
p. 38
(D
(m)
¨ a)
(m)
n
= (n +
1
m
) ¨ a
(m)
n
− (I
(m)
¨ a)
(m)
n
p. 38
n-yr m’thly Mortgage Paymt :
Loan Amt
m¨a
(m)
n
70 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
p. 39
n-yr Mortgage Bal. amt
k
m
+ : B
n,k/m
=
1 −v
n−k/m
1 −v
n
p. 42
t
p
y
=
S(y +t)
S(y)
= exp
_

_
t
0
µ(y +s) ds
_
p. 48
t
q
y
= 1 −
t
p
y
p. 48
q
x
=
1
q
x
=
d
x
l
x
, p
x
=
1
p
x
= 1 − q
x
p. 48
µ(y +t) =
f(y +t)
S(y +t)
= −

∂t
lnS(y +t)
p. 49
S(y) = exp( −
_
y
0
µ(t) dt)
p. 52
Unif. Failure Dist.: S(t) =
ω −t
ω
, f(t) =
1
ω
, 0 ≤ t ≤ ω
p. 52
Expon. Dist.: S(t) = e
−µt
, f(t) = µe
−µt
, µ(t) = µ , t > 0
p. 52
2.5. USEFUL FORMULAS FROM CHAPTER 2 71
Weibull. Dist.: S(t) = e
−λt
γ
, µ(t) = λγt
γ−1
, t > 0
p. 52
Makeham: µ(t) = A+Bc
t
, t ≥ 0
Gompertz: µ(t) = Bc
t
, t ≥ 0
S(t) = exp
_
−At −
B
lnc
(c
t
−1)
_
p. 54
72 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
Chapter 3
More Probability Theory for
Life Tables
This Chapter introduces several key ideas in Probability Theory which are
essential for an understanding of the book’s core actuarial topics in Chapter
4 and 5. The first of these ideas is that survival from one year to the next can
be regarded for each member of a population as a coin-toss experiment, with
survival probability p
x
for a life aged x, independently of all other members
of the population. This point of view also provides a convenient vehicle for
conducting computer simulations of population survival experience for large
or small life-table populations. Since the life-table summarizes outcomes
on a large number of coin-toss experiments, we study next through limit
theorems (law of large numbers and central limit theorem) the high degree of
predictability of these outcomes at the population level. This predictability
will be used in later chapters to justify consideration of expected present
values of contractual payouts to describe an insurer’s liability, so we prepare
the ground by presenting background theory and rules of manipulation for
expectations of discrete-valued random variables. Finally, we complete our
probability background with further material on interpreting, approximating
and calculating with probabilities and expectations using theoretical models
of survival between successive years of age.
73
74 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
3.1 Binomial Variables and Limit Theorems
This Section develops basic machinery for the theory of random variables
which count numbers of successes in large numbers of independent biased
coin-tosses. The motivation is that in large life-table populations, the number
l
x+t
who survive t time-units after age x can be regarded as the number
of successes or heads in a large number l
x
of independent coin-toss trials
corresponding to the further survival of each of the l
x
lives aged x , which for
each such life has probability
t
p
x
. The one preliminary mathematical result
that the student is assumed to know is the Binomial Theoremstating that
(for positive integers N and arbitrary real numbers x, y, z),
(1 +x)
N
=
N

k=0
_
N
k
_
x
k
, (y +z)
N
=
N

k=0
_
N
k
_
y
k
z
N−k
Recall that the first of these assertions follows by equating the k
th
deriv-
iatives of both sides at x = 0, where k = 0, . . . , N. The second assertion
follows immediately, in the nontrivial case when z = 0, by applying the first
assertion with x = y/z and multiplying both sides by z
N
. This Theo-
rem also has a direct combinatorial consequence. Consider the two-variable
polynomial
(y +z)
N
= (y +z) · (y +z) · · · (y +z) N factors
expanded by making all of the different choices of y or z from each of
the N factors (y + z), multiplying each combination of choices out to
get a monomial y
j
z
N−j
, and adding all of the monomials together. Each
combined choice of y or z from the N factors (y +z) can be represented
as a sequence (a
1
, . . . , a
n
) ∈ {0, 1}
N
, where a
i
= 1 would mean that y
is chosen and a
i
= 0 would mean that z is chosen in the i
th
factor. Now
this combinatorial fact is immediately deduced from the Binomial Theorem:
since the coefficient
_
N
k
_
is the total number of monomial terms y
k
z
N−k
which are collected when (y +z)
N
is expanded as described, and since these
monomial terms arise only from the combinations (a
1
, . . . , a
N
) of {y, z}
choices in which precisely k of the values a
j
are 1’s and the rest are 0’s,
The number of symbol-sequences (a
1
, . . . , a
N
) ∈ {0, 1}
N
such
that

N
j=1
a
j
= k is given, for each k = 0, 1, . . . , N, by
3.1. BINOMIAL VARIABLES & LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS 75
_
N
k
_
= N(N −1) · · · (N −k +1)/ k! . This number
_
N
k
_
, spoken
as ‘N choose k’, therefore counts all of the ways of choosing k
element subsets (the positions j from 1 to N where 1’s occur)
out of N objects.
The random experiment of interest in this Section consists of a number
N of independent tosses of a coin, with probability p of coming up heads
each time. Such coin-tossing experiments — independently replicated two-
outcome experiments with probability p of one of the outcomes, designated
‘success’ — are called Bernoulli (p) trials. The space of possible heads-
and-tails configurations, or sample space for this experiment, consists of the
strings of N zeroes and ones, with each string a = (a
1
, . . . , a
N
) ∈ {0, 1}
N
being assigned probability p
a
(1 − p)
N−a
, where a ≡

N
j=1
a
j
. Because
of the finite additivity axiom of probabilities (saying that Pr(A ∪ B) =
Pr(A) + Pr(B) for disjoint events A, B), the rule by which probabilities
are assigned to sets or events A of more than one string a ∈ {0, 1}
N
is
to add the probabilities of all individual strings a ∈ A. We are particularly
interested in the event (denoted [X = k]) that precisely k of the coin-
tosses are heads, i.e., in the subset [X = k] ⊂ {0, 1}
N
consisting of all
strings a such that

N
j=1
a
j
= k. Since each such string has the same
probability p
k
(1 − p)
N−k
, and since, according to the discussion following
the Binomial Theorem above, there are
_
N
k
_
such strings, the probability
which is necessarily assigned to the event of k successes is
Pr( k successes in N Bernoulli(p) trials ) = P(X = k) =
_
N
k
_
p
k
(1−p)
N−k
By virtue of this result, the random variable X equal to the number of suc-
cesses in N Bernoulli(p) trials, is said to have the Binomial distribution
with probability mass function p
X
(k) =
_
N
k
_
p
k
(1 −p)
N−k
.
With the notion of Bernoulli trials and the binomial distribution in hand,
we now begin to regard the ideal probabilities S(x + t)/S(x) as true but
unobservable probabilities
t
p
x
= p with which each of the l
x
lives aged x
will survive to age x + t . Since the mechanisms which cause those lives
to survive or die can ordinarily be assumed to be acting independently in a
probabilistic sense, we can regard the number l
x+t
of lives surviving to the
(possibly fractional) age x+t as a Binomial random variable with parameters
N = l
x
, p =
t
p
x
. From this point of view, if derived from an actual cohort
76 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
dataset of size equal to the radix, the observed life-table counts l
x
would
be treated as random data which reflect but do not define the underlying
probabilities
x
p
0
= S(x) of survival to age x. However, common sense
and experience suggest that, when l
0
is large, and therefore the other life-
counts l
x
for moderate values x are also large, the observed ratios l
x+t
/l
x
should reliably be very close to the ‘true’ probability
t
p
x
. In other words,
the ratio l
x+t
/l
x
is a statistical estimator of the unknown constant
t
p
x
.
The good property, called consistency, of this estimator to be close with very
large probability (based upon large life-table size) to the heads-probability it
estimates, is established in the famous Law of Large Numbers. We state
and prove the result here only in the setting of binomial random variables,
sketching in Section 3.3 how it implies a more general result for finite-valued
discrete random variables. A more precise quantitative inequality concerning
binomial probabilities, a Large Deviation Inequality which is important in its
own right but more difficult, is stated and proved in the Appendix to this
Chapter, Section 3.9.
Theorem 3.1 (Coin-toss Law of Large Numbers) Suppose that X is
a Binomial (N, p) random variable, denoting the number of successes in N
Bernoulli (p) trials. Law of Large Numbers. For arbitrarily small fixed
δ, > 0, not depending upon N, the number N of Bernoulli trials can be
chosen so large that
Pr
_
| X/N −p | ≥ δ
_

Proof. Since the event [ |X/N −p| ≥ δ ] = [ |X −Np| ≥ Nδ ] is the union
of the disjoint events [X = k] for |k − Np| ≥ Nδ, which in turn consist
of all outcome-strings (a
1
, . . . , a
N
) ∈ {0, 1}
N
for which

N
j=1
a
j
= k with
|k −Np| ≥ Nδ, the subset of the binomial probability mass function values
p
X
(k) with |k −Np| ≥ Nδ are summed to provide
Pr(|X/N−p| ≥ δ) =

k: |k−Np|≥Nδ
Pr(X = k) =

k: |k−Np|≥Nδ
_
N
k
_
p
k
(1−p)
N−k
This summation is term-by-term less than or equal to

k: |k−Np|≥Nδ
_
N
k
_
p
k
(1−p)
N−k
(k −Np)
2
(Nδ)
2

N

k=0
_
N
k
_
p
k
(1−p)
N−k
(k −Np)
2
(Nδ)
2
(3.1)
3.1. BINOMIAL VARIABLES & LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS 77
where we have made the second some larger by including more nonnegative
terms in it. However, direct summation shows
N

k=0
k
_
N
k
_
p
k
(1 −p)
N−k
=
N

k=1
kp
N · (N −1)!
k(k −1)!(N −k)!
p
k−1
(1 −p)
N−k
which after replacing k −1 by l, becomes with the aid of the Binomial The-
orem
= Np
N−1

l=0
_
N −1
l
_
p
l
(1 −p)
N−1−l
= Np
and similarly (now with j = k −2)
N

k=0
k(k−1)
_
N
k
_
p
k
(1−p)
N−k
=
N

k=2
p
2
N(N −1) (N −2)!
(k −2)!(N −k)!
p
k−2
(1−p)
N−k
= N(N −1)p
2
N−2

j=0
_
N −2
j
_
p
j
(1 −p)
N−2−j
= N(N −1) p
2
Putting together the last calculations, and simplifying algebraically, it is easy
to check via the equality (k −Np)
2
= k(k −1) −(2Np −1)k +(Np)
2
, that
N

k=0
(k −Np)
2
_
N
k
_
p
k
(1 −p)
N−k
= N p(1 −p)
Substituting this final relation into (3.1) now shows that
Pr(|X/N −p| ≥ δ) ≤
Np(1 −p)
(Nδ)
2
=
p(1 −p)

2
The assertion of the Theorem now follows by taking N ≥ (p(1−p)/(δ
2
). 2
3.1.1 Probability Bounds & Approximations
Theorem 3.1 provides only a very crude upper bound to the probability with
which |X/N − p| ≥ δ. A much more accurate upper bound in given in
Theorem 3.2 of the Appendix to the Chapter (Sec. 3.9). To see why more
78 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
accurate bounds are needed, consider the case where N = 1000, p = 0.1,
and δ = 0.03. The exact Binomial(1000, 0.1) probability of (number of
successes in N Bernoulli(p) trials falling in) [0, N(p −δ)] ∪ [N(p +δ), N] =
[0, 70] ∪ [130, 1000] is 0.001916, while the upper bound established in the
proof of Theorem 3.1 is (.1)(.9)/(1000(.03)
2
) = 0.1, more than fifty times
larger ! On the other hand, the upper bound provided by the inequalities of
Theorem 3.2, as in formula (3.30), is 0.0198.
Much closer approximations to the exact probabilities for Binomial(N, p)
random variables to fall in intervals around Np are obtained from the Normal
distribution approximation
Pr(a ≤ X ≤ b) ≈ Φ
_
b −Np
_
Np(1 −p)
_
− Φ
_
a −Np
_
Np(1 −p)
_
(3.2)
where Φ is the standard normal distribution function given explicitly in
integral form in formula (3.29) below. This approximation is the DeMoivre-
Laplace Central Limit Theorem (Feller vol. 1, 1957, pp. 168-73), which
says precisely that the difference between the left- and right-hand sides of
(3.2) converges to 0 when p remains fixed, as n → ∞. Moreover, the
refined form of the DeMoivre-Laplace Theorem given in the Feller (1957,
p. 172) reference says that each of the ratios of probabilities
Pr(X < a)
_
Φ
_
a −Np
_
Np(1 −p)
_
, Pr(X > b)
__
1 −Φ
_
b −Np
_
Np(1 −p)
__
converges to 1 if the ‘deviation’ ratios (b − Np)/
_
Np(1 −p) and
(a − Np)/
_
Np(1 −p) are of smaller order than N
−1/6
when N gets
large. This result suggests the approximation
Normal approx. = Φ
_

_
Np(1 −p)
_
− Φ
_
−Nδ
_
Np(1 −p)
_
(3.3)
for the true binomial probability Pr(|X/N − p| ≤ δ). In the example
discussed above, with N = 1000, p = 0.1, δ = 0.03, where the exact
Binomial(N, p) probability of |X/N −p| ≤ δ was 1−.00192 = .99808, the
normal approximation (3.3) is 0.99843.
To give a feeling for the probabilities with which observed life-table ra-
tios reflect the true underlying survival-rates, we have collected in Table 3.1
3.1. BINOMIAL VARIABLES & LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS 79
Table 3.1: Probabilities (in col. 6) with which various Binomial(l
x
,
k
p
x
)
random variables lie within a factor 1 ± of their expectations, together
with lower bounds (in Col. 7) for these probabilities derived from the large-
deviation inequalities (3.30)-(3.31). The final column contains the normal
approximations based on (3.3) to the exact probabilities in column 6.
Cohort Age Time Prob. Toler. Pr. within Lower Normal
n = l
x
x k p =
k
p
x
factor 1 ± bound approx.
10000 40 3 0.99 .003 .9969 .9760 .9972
10000 40 5 0.98 .004 .9952 .9600 .9949
10000 40 10 0.94 .008 .9985 .9866 .9985
1000 40 10 0.94 .020 .9863 .9120 .9877
10000 70 5 0.75 .020 .9995 .9950 .9995
1000 70 5 0.75 .050 .9938 .9531 .9938
10000 70 10 0.50 .030 .9973 .9778 .9973
1000 70 10 0.50 .080 .9886 .9188 .9886
various exact binomial probabilities and their counterparts from the approx-
imation of (3.3) and the inequality (3.30) of Section 3.9. The illustration
concerns cohorts of lives aged x of various sizes l
x
, together with ‘theo-
retical’ probabilities
k
p
x
with which these lives will survive for a period of
k = 1, 5, or 10 years. The probability experiment determining the size of
the surviving cohort l
x+k
is modelled as the tossing of l
x
independent coins
with common heads-probability
k
p
x
: then the surviving cohort-size l
x+k
is viewed as the Binomial (l
x
,
k
p
x
) random variable equal to the number of
heads in those coin-tosses. In Table 3.1 are given various combinations of
x, l
x
, k,
k
p
x
which might realistically arise in an insurance-company life-
table, together, with the true and estimated (from Theorem 3.2 and from
(3.3)) probabilities with which the ratios l
x+k
/l
x
agree with
k
p
x
to within
a fraction of the latter. Columns 6 and 7 in the Table show how likely the
life-table ratios are to be close to the ‘theoretical’ values, but also show that
the lower bounds, while also often close to 1, are still noticeably smaller
than the actual values.
Although the deviation-ratios in estimating life-table probabilities are
often close to or larger than N
−1/6
, not smaller as they should be for appli-
cability of (3.3), the normal approximations in the final column of Table 3.1
80 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
below are sensationally close to the correct binomial probabilities in column
6. A still more refined theorem which justifies this is given by Feller (1972,
section XVI.7 leading up to formula 7.28, p. 553).
3.2 Simulation of Discrete Lifetimes
We began by regarding life-table ratios l
x
/l
0
in large cohort life-tables as
defining integer-age survival probabilities S(x) =
x
p
0
. We said that if the
life-table was representative of a larger population of prospective insureds,
then we could imagine a newly presented life aged x as being randomly
chosen from the life-table cohort itself. We motivated the conditional prob-
ability ratios in this way, and similarly expectations of functions of life-table
death-times were averages over the entire cohort. Although we found the
calculus-based formulas for life-table conditional probabilities and expec-
tations to be useful, at that stage they were only ideal approximations of
the more detailed but still exact life-table ratios and sums. At the next
stage of sophistication, we began to describe the (conditional) probabilities
t
p
x
≡ S(x+t)/S(x) based upon a smooth survival function S(x) as a true
but unknown survival distribution, hypothesized to be of one of a number
of possible theoretical forms, governing each member of the life-table cohort
and of further prospective insureds. Finally, the life-table can also be viewed
as in Appendix A as an idealized set of data, with each ratio l
x+t
/l
x
equal to
the relative frequency of success among a set of l
x
imagined Bernoulli (
t
p
x
)
trials which Nature performs upon the cohort of lives aged x . With the
mathematical justification of the Law of Large Numbers, we come full circle:
these relative frequencies are random variables, but they are not very ran-
dom. That is, if the size l
x
of the cohort of surviving lives aged x is large,
the later fractions l
x+t
/l
x
of survivors at x+t to those at x are extremely
likely to lie within a very small tolerance of
t
p
x
. The Law of Large Num-
bers applies equally when the age-x survivors have been sampled by some
more complicated method than simply watching a cohort from birth. Thus,
in the realistic data-collection scenarios discussed in Appendix A, where the
sizes l
x
of lives under observation at age x are large but the probabilities
p
x
are unknown, the life-table ratios l
x+1
/l
x
are highly accurate statistical
estimators of the life-table probabilities .
3.2. SIMULATION OF DISCRETE LIFETIMES 81
Table 3.2: Illustrative Real and Simulated Life-Table Data
Age x l
x
in 1959-61 Life-Table Simulated l

x
9 96801 96753
19 96051 95989
29 94542 94428
39 92705 92576
49 88178 87901
59 77083 76793
69 56384 56186
79 28814 28657
To make this discussion more concrete, we illustrate the difference be-
tween the entries in a life-table and the entries one would observe as data
in a randomly generated life-table of the same size using the initial life-table
ratios as exact survival probabilities. We used as a source of life-table counts
the Mortality Table for U.S. White Males 1959-61 reproduced as Table 2 on
page 11 of C. W. Jordan’s (1967) book on Life Contingencies. That is, using
this Table with radix l
0
= 10
5
, with counts l
x
given for integer ages x from
1 through 80, we treated the probabilities p
x
= l
x+1
/l
x
for x = 0, . . . , 79 as
the correct one-year survival probabilities for a second, computer-simulated
cohort life-table with radix l

0
= 10
5
. Using simulated random variables
generated in R, we successively generated, as x runs from 1 to 79, random
variables l

x+1
∼ Binomial (l

x
, p
x
). In other words, the mechanism of sim-
ulation of the sequence l

0
, . . . , l

79
was to make the variable l

x+1
depend
on previously generated l

1
, . . . , l

x
only through l

x
, and then to generate
l

x+1
as though it counted the heads in l

x
independent coin-tosses with
heads-probability p
x
. A comparison of the actual and simulated life-table
counts for ages 9 to 79 in 10-year intervals, is given below. The complete
simulated life-table was given earlier as Table 1.1.
The implication of Table 3.2 is unsurprising: with radix as high as 10
5
,
the agreement between the initial and randomly generated life-table counts
is extremely good. The Law of Large Numbers guarantees good agreement,
with very high probability, between the ratios l
x+10
/l
x
(which here play
the role of the probability
10
p
x
of success in l

x
Bernoulli trials) and the
corresponding simulated random relative frequencies of success l

x+10
/l

x
. For
example, with x = 69, the final simulated count of l

79
= 28657 lives
82 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
aged 79 is the success-count in l

69
= 56186 Bernoulli trials with success-
probability 28814/56384 = .51103. With this success-probability, the nor-
mal approximation (3.3) says that the simulated count l

79
will differ from
.51103 · 56186 = 28712.8 by 300 or more in either direction with probability
approximately 0.0115. (The exact binomial probabilty of the same event is
0.0113.).
The R code used to generate Table 3.2 is very simple. If lvec denotes a
vector of values (l
0
, l
x(1)
, l
x(2)
, . . . , l
x(K)
) of numbers of surviving lives in a
cohort life-table with radix l
0
, where the integer ages 0, x(1), x(2), . . . , x(K)
are not necessarily evenly spaced, then the statements
K = length(lvec)-1 ; pvec = lvec[2:(K+1)]/lvec[1:K]
create the vector of hypothetical survival probabilities, pvec[j] = l
x(j+1)
/l
x
j
, j =
0, . . . , K − 1, and here is a small function to generate the (K + 1)-vector
tt lstar consisting of l

0
≡ l
0
together with the output simulated values
l

x(1)
, . . . , l
x(K)
:
LifTabSim = function(lvec) {
K = length(lvec)-1
lstar = c(lvec[1],rep(0,K))
for (j in 1:K) lstar[j+1] =
rbinom(1,lstar[j],lvec[j+1]/lvec[j])
lstar }
The syntax to generate a vector like the third column of Table 3.2 from the
second, where lvec consists of the radix l
0
= 10
5
concatenated with column
2, is: LifTab(lvec)[2:9]. As a further example of such a simulation,
suppose that 1000 individuals aged 40 have successive probabilities
10
p
x
=
0.85, 0.77, 0.70, 0.65, 0.4 for x = 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, then we can simulate
twice, independently and output in R the numbers of surviving lives at these
ages, as follows:
pvec = c(0.85, 0.77, 0.70, 0.65, 0.4)
Lvec = 1000*cumprod(c(1,pvec))
matrix(c(seq(40,80,10), pvec, LifTabSim(Lvec)[2:6],
LifTabSim(Lvec)[2:6]), nrow=4, ncol=5, byrow=T,
3.2. SIMULATION OF DISCRETE LIFETIMES 83
dimnames=list(c("Ages","10_p_x","Sim#1 l_x",
"Sim#2 l_x"), NULL))
[,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5]
Ages 40.00 50.00 60.0 70.00 80.0
10_p_x 0.85 0.77 0.7 0.65 0.4
Sim#1 l_x 842.00 638.00 450.0 296.00 133.0
Sim#2 l_x 854.00 662.00 483.0 344.00 129.0
From small experiments like this, we can see that the variability in the sim-
ulated numbers l

x
is considerable for l
0
of 1000 or less.
Exercise 3.A. With the same probabilities
10
p
x
use R to simulate 10 times
independently the numbers of survivors at ages 40, 50, . . . , 80.
(a). What is the spread between the smallest and largest number surviv-
ing at each age across your 10 simulations ?
(b). Regarding your 10 sets of simulated numbers of survivors as indepen-
dent datasets, if the underlying life-table probabilities were unknown, what
would be your best estimate of the probability
20
p
40
?
(c). Combining the 10 simulated datasets you generated in (b), what is
your best estimate of the probability
20
p
40
?
84 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
3.3 Expectation of Discrete Random Variables
The Binomial random variables discussed in this Chapter are examples of
so-called discrete random variables, that is, random variables Z with a
discrete (usually finite) list of possible outcomes z, with a corresponding list
of probabilities or probability mass function values p
Z
(z) with which each of
those possible outcomes occur. These probabilities p
Z
(z) must be positive
numbers which summed over all possible values z add to 1. In an insur-
ance context, think for example of Z as the unforeseeable future damage or
liability upon the basis of which an insurer has to pay some scheduled claim
amount c(Z) to fulfill a specific property or liability insurance policy. The
Law of Large Numbers says that we can have a frequentist operational inter-
pretation of each of the probabilities p
Z
(z) with which a claim of size c(z)
is presented. In a large population of N independent policyholders, each
governed by the same probabilities p
Z
(·) of liability occurrences, for each
fixed damage-amount z we can imagine a series of N Bernoulli (p
Z
(z))
trials, in which the jth policyholder is said to result in a ‘success’ if he
sustains a damage amount equal to z , and to result in a ‘failure’ otherwise.
The Law of Large Numbers (Theorem 3.7) for these Bernoulli trials says that
the number out of these N policyholders who do sustain damage z is for
large N extremely likely to differ by no more than δN from N p
Z
(z).
Returning to a general discussion, suppose that Z is a discrete random
variable with a finite list of possible values z
1
, . . . , z
m
, and let c(·) be a
real-valued (nonrandom) cost function such that c(Z) represents an eco-
nomically meaningful cost incurred when the random variable value Z is
given. Suppose that a large number N of independent individuals give rise
to respective values Z
j
, j = 1, . . . , N and costs c(Z
1
), . . . , c(Z
N
). Here in-
dependent means that the mechanism causing different individual Z
j
values
is such that information about the values Z
1
, . . . , Z
j−1
does not change the
(conditional) probabilities with which Z
j
takes on its values, so that for all
j, i, and b
1
, . . . , b
j−1
,
P(Z
j
= z
i
| Z
1
= b
1
, . . . , Z
j−1
= b
j−1
) = p
Z
(z
i
)
Then the Law of Large Numbers, applied as above, says that out of the
large number N of individuals it is extremely likely that approximately
p
Z
(k) · N will have their Z variable values equal to k, where k ranges
over {z
1
, . . . , z
m
}. It follows that the average costs c(Z
j
) over the N
3.3. EXPECTATION OF DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES 85
independent individuals — which can be expressed exactly as
N
−1
N

j=1
c(Z
j
) = N
−1
m

i=1
c(z
i
) · #{j = 1, . . . , N : Z
j
= z
i
}
— is approximately given by
N
−1
m

i=1
c(z
i
) · (N p
Z
(z
i
)) =
m

i=1
c(z
i
) p
Z
(z
i
)
In other words, the Law of Large Numbers implies that the average cost
per trial among the N independent trials resulting in random variable
values Z
j
and corresponding costs c(Z
j
) has a well-defined approximate
(actually, a limiting) value for very large N
Expectation of cost = E(c(Z)) =
m

i=1
c(z
i
) p
Z
(z
i
) (3.4)
As an application of the formula for expectation of a discrete random
variable, consider the expected value of a cost-function g(T) of a lifetime
random variable which is assumed to depend on T only through the function
g([T]) of the integer part of T. This expectation was interpreted earlier as
the average cost over all members of the specified life-table cohort. Now the
expectation can be verified to coincide with the life-table average previously
given, if the probabilities S(j) in the following expression are replaced by
the life-table estimators l
j
/l
0
. Since P([T] = k) = S(k) − S(k + 1), the
general expectation formula (3.4) yields
E(g(T)) = E(g([T]) =
ω−1

k=0
g(k) (S(k) −S(k + 1)) (3.5)
which, after replacing S(k) − S(k + 1) =
_
k+1
k
f(t) dt and [t] = k for
k ≤ t < k + 1, becomes
ω−1

k=0
g(k)
_
k+1
k
f(t) dt =
ω−1

k=0
_
k+1
k
g([t]) f(t) dt =
_
ω
0
g([t]) f(t) dt
agreeing precisely with formula (1.3). Similarly, evaluating the discrete con-
ditional expectation given T ≥ x means applying the formula (3.4) to the
86 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
function c(Z) = g(Z) of the discrete random variable Z = [T] using
the conditional probability mass function P(Z = k) = P([T] = k | T ≥
x) = (S(k) −S(k + 1))/S(x) for all integers k ≥ x (and with probability
0 assigned to all integers k < x.) Then the conditional expectation is
E(g([T]) | T ≥ x) =
ω−1

k=x
S(k) −S(k + 1)
S(x)
g(k) =
ω−1

k=x
g(k)
S(x)
_
k+1
k
f(t) dt
or
E(g([T] | T ≥ x) =
ω−1

k=x
_
k+1
k
g([t])
S(x)
f(t) dt =
_
ω
0
g([t])
f(t)
S(x
) dt
agreeing precisely with formula (1.5).
The preceding discussion shows that expectations or conditional expec-
tations of functions of whole-year ages can equivalently be calculated using
the expectation formulas for discrete or continuous random variables. In the
discrete case, however, the expressions require knowledge only of the prob-
abilities S(y) of survival for whole-year or integer ages y. Indeed, in the
preceding (discrete-version) formula, for E(g([T]) | T ≥ x), let k ≥ x be
replaced by k = x +j, and express
S(k) −S(k + 1)
S(x)
=
S(x +j)
S(x)
_
1 −
S(x +j + 1
S(x +j)
_
=
j
p
x
(1 −p
x+j
)
Then
E(g([T]) | T ≥ x) =
ω−1

k=x
S(k) −S(k + 1)
S(x)
g(k) =
ω−x−1

j=0
j
p
x
(1−p
x+j
) g(x+j)
(3.6)
Just as we did in the context of expectations of functions of the life-
table waiting-time random variable T , we can interpret the Expectation as a
weighted average of values (costs, in this discussion) which can be incurred in
each trial, weighted by the probabilities with which they occur. There is an
analogy in the continuous-variable case, where Z would be a random variable
whose approximate probabilities of falling in tiny intervals [z, z + dz] are
given by f
Z
(z)dz, where f
Z
(z) is a nonnegative density function integrating
to 1. In this case, the weighted average of cost-function values c(z) which
arise when Z ∈ [z, z +dz], with approximate probability-weights f
Z
(z)dz,
is written as a limit of sums or an integral, namely
_
c(z) f(z) dz.
3.3. EXPECTATION OF DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES 87
3.3.1 Rules for Manipulating Expectations
We have separately defined expectation for continuous and discrete random
variables. In the continuous case, we treated the expectation of a specified
function g(T) of a lifetime random variable governed by the survival function
S(x) of a cohort life-table, as the approximate numerical average of the values
g(T
i
) over all individuals i with data represented through observed lifetime
T
i
in the life-table. The discrete case was handled more conventionally,
along the lines of a ‘frequentist’ approach to the mathematical theory of
probability. First, we observed that our calculations with Binomial (n, p)
random variables justified us in saying that the sum X = X
n
of a large
number n of independent coin-toss variables
1
, . . . , ,
n
, each of which is
1 with probability p and 0 otherwise, has a value which with very high
probability differs from n·p by an amount smaller than δn, where δ > 0 is
an arbitrarily small number not depending upon n. The Expectation p of
each of the variables
i
is recovered approximately as the numerical average
X/n = n
−1

n
i=1

i
of the independent outcomes
i
of independent trials.
This Law of Large Numbers extends to arbitrary sequences of independent
and identical finite-valued discrete random variables, saying that
if Z
1
, Z
2
, . . . are independent random variables, in the sense
that for all k ≥ 2 and all numbers r,
P(Z
k
≤ r | Z
1
= z
1
, . . . , Z
k−1
= z
k−1
) = P(Z
1
≤ r)
regardless of the precise values z
1
, . . . , z
k−1
, then for each δ > 0,
as n gets large
P
_
|n
−1
n

i=1
c(Z
i
) −E(c(Z
1
))| ≥ δ
_
−→ 0 (3.7)
where, in terms of the finite set S of possible values of Z ,
E(c(Z
1
)) =

z∈S
c(z) P(Z
1
= z) (3.8)
We do not give any further proof here, but the motivating arguments given,
together with straightforward manipulations using the result of Theorem 3.7,
88 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
are an essentially complete proof of (3.7). It is also a fact that the Law of
Large Numbers given in equation (3.7) continues to hold if the definition
of independent sequences of random variables Z
i
is suitably generalized, as
long as either
Z
i
are discrete with infinitely many possible values defining a
set S, and the expectation is as given in equation (3.8) above
whenever the function c(z) is such that

z∈S
|c(z)| P(Z
1
= z) < ∞
or
the independent random variables Z
i
are continuous, all with
the same density f(t) such that P(q ≤ Z
1
≤ r) =
_
r
q
f(t) dt,
and expectation is defined by
E(c(Z
1
)) =
_

−∞
c(t) f(t) dt (3.9)
whenever the function c(t) is such that
_

−∞
|c(t)| f(t) dt < ∞
All of this shows that there really is no choice in devising an appropri-
ate definition of expectations of cost-functions defined in terms of random
variables Z, whether discrete or continuous. For the rest of this book, and
more generally in applications of probability within actuarial science, we are
interested in evaluating expectations of various functions of random variables
related to the contingencies and uncertain duration of life. Many of these
expectations concern superpositions of random amounts to be paid out after
random durations. The following rules for the manipulation of expectations
arising in such superpositions considerably simplify the calculations. Assume
in what follows that all random payments and times are functions of a single
lifetime random variable T.
3.3. EXPECTATION OF DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES 89
(1). If a payment consists of a nonrandom multiple (e.g., face-amount
F) times a random amount c(T), then the expectation of the payment is
the product of F and the expectation of c(T):
Discrete case: E(Fc(T)) =

t
F c(t) P(T = t)
= F

t
c(t) P(T = t) = F · E(c(T))
Continuous case: E(Fc(T)) =
_
F c(t)f(t) dt = F
_
c(t)f(t) dt = F·E(c(T))
(2). If a payment consists of the sum of two separate random payments
c
1
(T), c
2
(T) (which may occur at different times, taken into account by
treating both terms c
k
(T) as present values as of the same time), then the
overall payment has expectation which is the sum of the expectations of the
separate payments:
Discrete case: E(c
1
(T) +c
2
(T)) =

t
(c
1
(t) +c
2
(t)) P(T = t)
=

t
c
1
(t) P(T = t) +

t
c
2
(t) P(T = t) = E(c
1
(T)) +E(c
2
(T))
Continuous case: E(c
1
(T) +c
2
(T)) =
_
(c
1
(t) +c
2
(t)) f(t) dt
=
_
c
1
(t) f(t) dt +
_
c
2
(t) f(t) dt = E(c
1
(T)) +E(c
2
(T))
Thus, if an uncertain payment under an insurance-related contract, based
upon a continuous lifetime variable T with density f
T
, occurs only if
a ≤ T < b and in that case consists of a payment of a fixed amount F
occurring at a fixed time h, then the expected present value under a fixed
nonrandom interest-rate i with v = (1 +i)
−1
, becomes by rule (1) above,
E(v
h
F I
[a≤T<b]
) = v
h
F E(I
[a≤T<b]
)
where the indicator-notation I
[a≤T<b]
denotes a random quantity which is
1 when the condition [a ≤ T < b] is satisfied and is 0 otherwise. Since
90 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
an indicator random variable has the two possible outcomes {0, 1} like the
coin-toss variables
i
above, we conclude that E(I
[a≤T<b]
) = P(a ≤ T <
b) =
_
b
a
f
T
(t) dt, and the expected present value above is
E(v
h
F I
[a≤T<b]
) = v
h
F
_
b
a
f
T
(t) dt
(3). The expectation of a nonnegative-integer-valued random variable
can sometimes be simplified considerably by means of the following useful
Lemma.
Lemma 3.1 Let Z be a nonnegative-integer-valued random variable. Then
EZ =

j=1
P(Z ≥ j) (3.10)
The Lemma is proved using the rule (Fubini-Tonelli theorem for double
summation) that the order of a double summation of nonnegative summands
can always be reversed:
EZ =

k=0
k p
Z
(k) =

k=1
k

j=1
p
X
(k) =

j=1

k=j
p
Z
(k) =

j=1
P(Z ≥ j)
3.3.2 Curtate Expectation of Life
One example of a function of the number [T] of whole years of life, whose
conditional expectation is useful and interpretable, is the whole-year residual
life [T]−x for a life aged x, where x is an integer age. The expectation, nec-
essarily conditional on the attained age x, is called curtate mean residual
life or curtate life expectancy,
e
x
= E( [T] −x| T ≥ x) =
ω−1

t=x
P(t ≤ T < t + 1)
P(T ≥ x)
(t −x) (3.11)
3.4. INTERPRETING FORCE OF MORTALITY 91
Substituting the formula (3.6) with g(t) = t − x gives this formula in
the alternative form
e
x
= E( [T] −x| T ≥ x) =
ω−x−1

j=0
j
p
x
(1 −p
x+j
) j (3.12)
A third useful version of this formula can be found by applying formula
(3.10) of Lemma 3.1 to the nonnegative integer valued random variable Z =
[T] −x with probability masses calculated conditionally given T ≥ x. This
yields
e
x
= E( [T] −x| T ≥ x) =
ω−x−1

j=1
P([T] −x ≥ j | T ≥ x) =
ω−x−1

j=1
j
p
x
(3.13)
The extension of these expectation formulas to give mean residual life-
times which are not truncated to whole years rests on survival function and
density formulas which specify mortality rates between birthdays. The fol-
lowing two sections are devoted to a deeper study of continuous mortality
models and interpolation approximations.
3.4 Interpreting Force of Mortality
This Section consists of remarks, relating the force of mortality for a con-
tinuously distributed lifetime random variable T (with continuous density
function f ) to conditional probabilities for discrete random variables. In-
deed, for m large (e.g. as large as 4 or 12), the discrete random variable
[Tm]/m gives a close approximation to T and represents the attained age
at death measured in whole-number multiples of fractions h = one m
th
of a year. (Here [·] continues to denote the greatest integer less than or
equal to its real argument.) Since surviving an additional time t = nh can
be viewed as successively surviving to reach times h, 2h, 3h, . . . , nh, and
since (by the definition of conditional probability)
P(A
1
∩ · · · ∩ A
n
) = P(A
1
) · P(A
2
|A
1
) · · · P(A
n
|A
1
∩ · · · ∩ A
n−1
)
we have (with the interpretation A
k
= {T ≥ x +kh} )
nh
p
x
=
h
p
x
·
h
p
x+h
·
h
p
x+2h
· · ·
h
p
x+(n−1)h
92 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
The form in which this formula is most often useful is the case h = 1: for
integers k ≥ 2,
k
p
x
= p
x
· p
x+1
· p
x+2
· · · p
x+k−1
(3.14)
Every continuous waiting-time random variable can be approximated by
a discrete random variable with possible values which are multiples of a
fixed small unit h of time, and therefore the random survival time can
be viewed as the (first failure among a) succession of results of a sequence
of independent coin-flips with successive probabilities
h
p
kh
of heads. By
the Mean Value Theorem applied up to second-degree terms on the function
S(x +h) expanded about h = 0,
S(x+h) = S(x) +hS

(x) +
h
2
2
S

(x+τh) = S(x) −hf(x) −
h
2
2
f

(x+τh)
for some 0 < τ < 1, if f is continuously differentiable. Therefore, using
the definition of µ(x) as f(x)/S(x) given on page 49,
h
p
x
= 1 − h ·
_
S(x) −S(x +h)
hS(x)
_
= 1 − h
_
µ(x) +
h
2
f

(x +τh)
S(x)
_
Going in the other direction, the previously derived formula
h
p
x
= exp
_

_
x+h
x
µ(y) dy
_
can be interpreted by considering the fraction of individuals observed to reach
age x who thereafter experience hazard of mortality µ(y) dy on successive
infinitesimal intervals [y, y+dy] within [x, x+h). The lives aged x survive
to age x + h with probability equal to a limiting product of infinitesimal
terms (1−µ(y) dy) ∼ exp(−µ(y) dy), yielding an overall conditional survival
probability equal to the negative exponential of accumulated hazard over
[x, x +h).
3.5 Interpolation Between Integer Ages
Cohort life-table data l
x
and the probability quantities
j
p
x
derived from
them (for integers j) depend on and are determined by the survival func-
tion S(k) values only at integer arguments k. Yet many expectations of
3.5. INTERPOLATION BETWEEN INTEGER AGES 93
functions important in actuarial applications necessarily involve the survival
function values between integer ages. It is possible to approximate these only
because, for all but the very youngest and oldest ages, the survival function
for human lives is very smooth within years of age, with derivatives that are
not dramatically large and themselves do not change rapidly. In terms of
calculus concepts, the function value S(x +t) for integer x and 0 ≤ t < 1
is given approximately by the Taylor series formula
S(x +t) = S(x) + t S

(x) +
1
2
t
2
S

(x +θt)
= S(x) − t f

(x) −
1
2
t
2
f

(x +θt) (3.15)
where θ ∈ (0, 1) in the argument of S

in the third term (the mean-value
type remainder) of the first line, and where the second line uses the definition
f(x +t) = −S

(x +t) valid at all nonnegative integers x and t ∈ [0, 1).
While we will later use Taylor expansions like (3.15) to approximate
expectations E(g(T)) and conditional expectations E(g(T) | T ≥ x), for
now we focus on understanding what (3.15) says about the approximate
probability distribution of the lifetime variable T within years of age. If
S

= −f

is small, as is undoubtedly true for human lifetime between ages
2 and 75 in modern public health conditions, then it is tempting to im-
pose the direct modelling assumption S(x + t) ≡ S(x) −tf(x) for integer
x and t ∈ [0, 1), together with continuity of S at all integer points.
This assumption, often called the actuarial approximation, says that for any
0 ≤ a < b < 1,
P(T ∈ [x+a, x+b) | [T] = x) =
S(x +a) −S(x +b)
(S(x) −S(x + 1)
=
(b −a) f(x)
f(x)
= b−a
In other words, the ‘actuarial approximation’ says that failures known to
occur within the year between the x and x+1 birthdays are actually uniformly
distributed (have constant conditional density of 1) within that year.
The ‘actuarial-approximation’ assumption can be understood either as
piecewise linearity, on exact-age intervals [x, x + 1), of the continuous sur-
vival function S(y) or equivalently as piecewise constancy of the density
function f(y) = −S

(y). This assumption is by far the most commonly
used one in actuarial work. Two other related possible approximations can
94 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
be obtained by Taylor expanding not S(x+t) itself but rather the functions
log S(x + t) or 1/S(x + t). It turns out that the first of these alternative
assumptions, piecewise linearity of log S(x + t) or equivalently piecewise
constancy within intervals x, x +1) of
d
dy
log S(y) = −f(y)/S(y) ≡ µ(y)
is well known and has historically been widely used by biostatisticians. Many
models in biostatistics or reliability have been formulated with piecewise con-
stant hazards (recall that biostatisticians call µ(y) the hazard function while
actuaries call it force of mortality). The third assumption introduced here,
that of piecewise linearity of 1/S(y), is called the Balducci hypothesis,
and is studied by actuarial students largely for historical reasons and as a
source of examination problems, since it will be seen immediately below for-
mula (3.22) to have properties which make it unsuitable as a realistic model
for survival.
To proceed formally, assume that values S(x) for x = 0, 1, 2, . . . have
been specified or estimated. Approximations to S(y), f(y) and µ(y)
between integers are usually based on one of the following assumptions:
(i) (Piecewise-uniform density) f(x +t) is constant for 0 ≤ t < 1 ;
(ii) (Piecewise-constant hazard) µ(x +t) is constant for 0 ≤ t < 1 ;
(iii) (Balducci hypothesis) 1/S(x +t) is linear for 0 ≤ t < 1 .
For integers x and 0 ≤ t ≤ 1,
S(x +t)
−lnS(x +t)
1/S(x +t)
_
_
_
is linear in t under
_
_
_
assumption (i)
assumption (ii)
assumption (iii)
(3.16)
Under assumption (i), the slope of the linear function S(x +t) at t = 0 is
−f(x), which implies easily that S(x +t) = S(x) −tf(x), i.e.,
f(x) = S(x) −S(x + 1) , and µ(x +t) =
f(x)
S(x) −tf(x)
(3.17)
so that under (i),
µ(x +
1
2
) = f
T
(x +
1
2
)
_
S
T
(x +
1
2
) (3.18)
Under (ii), where µ(x +t) = µ(x), (3.18) also holds, and
S(x +t) = S(x) e
−t µ(x)
, and p
k
=
S(x + 1)
S(x)
= e
−µ(x)
3.5. INTERPOLATION BETWEEN INTEGER AGES 95
Under (iii), for 0 ≤ t < 1,
1
S(x +t)
=
1
S(x)
+t
_
1
S(x + 1)

1
S(x)
_
(3.19)
When equation (3.19) is multiplied through by S(x + 1) and terms are
rearranged, the result is
S(x + 1)
S(x +t)
= t + (1 −t)
S(x + 1)
S(x)
= 1 − (1 −t) q
x
(3.20)
Recalling that
t
q
x
= 1 − (S(x + t)/S(x)), reveals assumption (iii) to be
equivalent to
1−t
q
x+t
= 1 −
S(x + 1)
S(x +t)
= (1 −t)
_
1 −
S(x + 1)
S(x)
_
= (1 −t) q
x
(3.21)
Next differentiate the logarithm of the formula (3.20) with respect to t, to
show (still under (iii)) that
µ(x +t) = −

∂t
ln S(x +t) =
q
x
1 −(1 −t)q
x
(3.22)
Apart from any other property which the Balducci interpolation assump-
tion (iii) might have, formula (3.19) immediately shows that the within-year
force of mortality µ(x + t), 0 ≤ t < 1, is actually a decreasing function
a feature which seems particularly unrealistic from middle to advanced ages
within human lifetimes. By contrast, the within-year force of mortality un-
der assumption (i) as given in (3.17) is evidently increasing, and almost by
definition the piecewise-constant hazard assumption (ii) entails within-year
constancy of the force of mortality.
The most frequent insurance application for the interpolation assump-
tions (i)-(iii) and associated survival-probability formulas is to express prob-
abilities of survival for fractional years in terms of probabilities of whole-year
survival. In terms of the notations
t
p
x
and q
x
for integers x and 0 < t < 1,
the formulas are:
t
p
x
= 1 −
(S(x) −t(S(x + 1) −S(x))
S(x)
= 1 −t q
x
under (i) (3.23)
t
p
x
=
S(x +t)
S(x)
=
_
e
−µ(x)
_
t
= (1 −q
x
)
t
under (ii) (3.24)
96 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
t
p
x
=
S(x +t)
S(x + 1)
S(x + 1)
S(x)
=
1 −q
x
1 −(1 −t)q
x
under (iii) (3.25)
The application of all of these formulas can be understood in terms of the
formula for expectation of a function g(T) of the lifetime random variable T.
(For a concrete example, think of g(T) = (1 +i)
−T
as the present value to
an insurer of the payment of $1 which it will make instantaneously at the
future time T of death of a newborn which it undertakes to insure.) Then
assumptions (i), (ii), or (iii) via respective formulas (3.23), (3.24), and (3.25)
are used to substitute into the final expression of the following formulas:
E
_
g(T)
_
=
_

0
g(t) f(t) dt =
ω−1

x=0
_
1
0
g(t +x) f(t +x) dt
=
ω−1

x=0
S(x)
_
1
0
g(t +x)
_


∂t
t
p
x
_
dt
3.5.1 Life Expectancy – Definition and Approximation
In terms of a survival function f and S modelling the distribution of
exact age at death within years of integer age, we can extend the notion of
expected remaining life from the curtate to the complete expectation for a
life aged x of (T −x) :
complete expectation of life = ˚e
x
= E(T −x| T ≥ x) (3.26)
This quantity is also called expected residual life or, in demography, life ex-
pectancy. This quantity is larger than the the curtate life expectancy e
x
because, for a life just completing its x’th year and surviving to exact age
x + j + t , with x, j integers and 0 ≤ t < 1 the complete residual life
is T − x = j + t while the curtate residual life is [T] − x = j. Thus by
definition
˚e
x
− e
x
= E( T −[T] | T ≥ x) ∈ [0, 1)
since this difference is the expectation or weighted average of a quantity
between 0 and 1.
The integral formula for life expectancy can be written in any of the three
3.6. SOME SPECIAL INTEGRALS 97
ways
˚e
x
=
_
ω
x
(y −x)
f(y)
S(x)
dy =
_
ω−x
0
t
t
p
x
µ(x +t) dt =
_
ω−x
0
t
p
x
(3.27)
Of these expressions, the first is the basic conditional expectation formula
(1.5) with g(T) = T −x. The second is obtained from it by the change of
variable t = y −x, using the identities
f(x +t)/S(x) = µ(x +t) S(x +t)/S(x) = µ(x +t)
t
p
x
The third is a continuous-time analogue of Lemma 3.1, obtained from the
second expression in (3.27) via integration by parts, using u = t and dv =
µ(x +t)
t
p
x
dt = −(1/S(x)) d(S(x +t)).
Under the ”actuarial approximation” (assumption (i)) of uniform lifetime
distribution within whole years of age, we saw above that T−[T] is a random
variable with values in [0, 1) which is uniformly distributed (with constant
density 1). Therefore, using the formula (1.4) for expectation, we find
under (i): ˚e
x
− e
x
=
_
1
0
t dt =
1
2
(3.28)
There are no formulas nearly as simple for the difference between complete
and curtate life expectancies under interpolation assumptions (ii) or (iii).
3.6 Some Special Integrals
While actuaries ordinarily do not allow themselves to represent real life-table
survival distributions by simple finite-parameter families of theoretical distri-
butions (for the good reason that such distributions never approximate the
real large-sample life-table data well enough), it is important for the student
to be conversant with several integrals which would arise by substituting
some of the theoretical models into formulas for various net single premiums
and expected lifetimes.
Consider first the Gamma functions and integrals arising in connection
with Gamma survival distributions. The Gamma function Γ(α) is defined
by
Γ(α) =
_

0
x
α−1
e
−x
dx , α > 0
98 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
This integral is easily checked to be equal to 1 when α = 1, giving
the total probability for an exponentially distributed random variable, i.e.,
a lifetime with constant force-of-mortality 1. For α = 2, the integral
is the expected value of such a unit-exponential random variable, and it is
a standard integration-by-parts exercise to check that it too is 1. More
generally, the integral Gamma(α + 1) for positive integer α is the α
th
moment of the Exponential distribution with parameters λ = 1. Integration
by parts in the Gamma integral with u = x
α
and dv = e
−x
dx immediately
yields the famous recursion relation for the Gamma integral, first derived
by Euler, and valid for all α > 0 :
Γ(α + 1) =
_

0
x
α
e
−x
dx =
_
−x
α
e
−x
_
¸
¸
¸

0
+
_

0
αx
α−1
e
−x
dx = α · Γ(α)
This relation, applied inductively, shows that for all positive integers n,
Γ(n + 1) = n · (n −1) · · · 2 · Γ(1) = n!
The only other simple-to-derive formula explicitly giving values for (non-
integer) values of the Gamma function is Γ(
1
2
) =

π, obtained as follows:
Γ(
1
2
) =
_

0
x
−1/2
e
−x
dx =
_

0
e
−z
2
/2

2 dz
Here we have made the integral substitution x = z
2
/2, x
−1/2
dx =

2 dz.
The last integral can be given by symmetry, using the change of variable
u = −z and the fact that the integrand is an even function, to show that
_
0
−∞
e
−z
2
/2
dz =
_

0
e
−u
2
/2
du =
1
2
_

−∞
e
−x
2
/2
dx =
1
2

2π =

π

2
where the last equality is equivalent to the fact (proved in most calculus
texts as an exercise in double integration using change of variable to polar
coordinates) that the standard normal distribution
Φ(x) =
1


_
x
−∞
e
−z
2
/2
dz (3.29)
is a bona-fide distribution function with limit equal to 1 as x → ∞. The
symmetry of the normal density guarantees that half of its probability is
assigned to each of (−∞, 0) and [0, ∞), so that Φ(0) = 1/2.
3.6. SOME SPECIAL INTEGRALS 99
One of the integrals which arises in calculating expected remaining life-
times for Weibull-distributed variables is a Gamma integral, after integration-
by-parts and a change-of-variable. Recall that the Weibull density with pa-
rameters λ, γ is
f(t) = λγ t
γ−1
e
−λt
γ
, t > 0
so that S(x) = exp(−λx
γ
). The expected remaining life for a Weibull-
distributed life aged x is calculated, via an integration by parts with u =
t −x and dv = f(t)dt = −S

(t)dt, as
_

x
(t −x)
f(t)
S(x)
dt =
1
S(x)
_
−(t −x) e
−λt
γ
¸
¸
¸

x
+
_

x
e
−λt
γ
dt
_
The first term in square brackets evaluates to 0 at the endpoints, and the
second term can be re-expressed via the change-of-variable w = λt
γ
with
(1/γ) w
1/γ−1
dw = λ
1/γ
dt, to give in the Weibull example,
E(T −x| T ≥ x) = e
λx
γ 1
γ
λ
−1/γ
_

λx
γ
w
(1/γ)−1
e
−w
dw
= Γ(
1
γ
) e
λx
γ 1
γ
λ
−1/γ
_
1 −G
1/γ
(λx
γ
)
_
where we denote by G
α
(z) the Gamma distribution function with shape
parameter α,
G
α
(z) =
1
Γ(α)
_
z
0
v
α−1
e
−v
dv
and the integral on the right-hand side is called the incomplete Gamma
function. Values of G
α
(z) can be found either in published tables which
are now quite dated, or among the standard functions of many mathemati-
cal/statistical computer packages, such as Matlab or R. One particular case
of these integrals, the case α = 1/2 , can be re-cast in terms of the standard
normal distribution function Φ(·). We change variables by v = y
2
/2 to
obtain for z ≥ 0,
G
1/2
(z) =
1
Γ(1/2)
_
z
0
v
−1/2
e
−v
dv =
1

π
_

2z
0

2 e
−y
2
/2
dy
=
_
2
π
·

2π · (Φ(

2z) −Φ(0)) = 2Φ(

2z) −1
100 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
One further expected-lifetime calculation with a common type of distri-
bution gives results which simplify dramatically and become amenable to
numerical calculation. Suppose that the lifetime random variable T is as-
sumed lognormally distributed with parameters m, σ
2
. Then the expected
remaining lifetime of a life aged x is
E( T −x| T ≥ x) =
1
S(x)
_

x
t
d
dt
Φ(
log(t) −log(m)
σ
) dt − x
Now change variables by y = (log(t) − log(m))/σ = log(t/m)/σ, so that
t = me
σy
, and define in particular
x

=
log(x) −log(m)
σ
Recalling that Φ

(z) = exp(−z
2
/2)/

2π , we find
E( T −x| T ≥ x) =
1
1 −Φ(x

)
_

x

m


e
σy−y
2
/2
dy − x
The integral simplifies after completing the square σy − y
2
/2 =
σ
2
/2 −(y −σ)
2
/2 in the exponent of the integrand and changing variables
by z = y −σ. The result is:
E( T −x| T ≥ x) =
me
σ
2
/2
1 −Φ(x

)
_
1 −Φ(x

−σ)
_
− x , x

=
log(x/m)
σ
3.7 Exercise Set 3
(1). Show that:

∂x
t
p
x
=
t
p
x
· (µ
x
−µ
x+t
) .
(2). For a certain value of x, it is known that
t
q
x
= kt over the time-
interval t ∈ [0, 3], where k is a constant. Express µ
x+2
as a function of
k.
(3). Suppose that an individual aged 20 has random lifetime (= exact age
at death) T with continuous density function
f
T
(t) = 0.02 (t −20) e
−(t−20)
2
/100
, t > 20
3.7. EXERCISE SET 3 101
(a) If this individual has a contract with your company that you must
pay his heirs $10
6
· (1.4 − T/50) on the date of his death between ages 20
and 70, then what is the expected payment ?
(b) If the value of the death-payment described in (a) should properly be
discounted by the factor exp(−0.08(T −20)) (i.e. by the effective interest
rate of e
.08
−1 per year) to calculate the present value of the payment, then
what is the expected present value of the insurance contract ?
Hint for both parts: After a change of variables, the integral in (a)
can be evaluated in terms of incomplete Gamma integrals
_

c
s
α−1
e
−s
ds,
where the complete Gamma integrals (for c=0) are known yield the Gamma
function Γ(α) = (α −1)!, for integer α > 0.
(4). Suppose that a life-table mortality pattern is this: from ages 20 through
60, twice as many lives die in each 5-year period as in the previous five-year
period. Find the probability that a life aged 20 will die between exact ages 40
and 50. If the force of mortality can be assumed constant over each five-year
age period (20-24, 25-29, etc.), and if you are told that l
60
/l
20
= 0.8, then
find the probability that a life aged 20 will survive at least until exact age
48.0 .
(5). Obtain an expression for µ
x
if l
x
= k s
x
w
x
2
g
c
x
, where k, s, w, g, c
are positive constants.
(6). Show that:
_

0
l
x+t
µ
x+t
dt = l
x
.
(7). A man wishes to accumulate $50, 000 in a fund at the end of 20 years.
If he deposits $1000 in the fund at the end of each of the first 10 years and
$1000+x in the fund at the end of each of the second 10 years, then find x
to the nearest dollar, where the fund earns an effective interest rate of 6% .
(8). Express in terms of annuity-functions a
(m)
N
the present value of an
annuity of $100 per month paid the first year, $200 per month for the second
year, up to $1000 per month the tenth year. Find the numerical value of the
present value if the effective annual interest rate is 7% .
(9). Find upper bounds for the following Binomial probabilities, and com-
pare them with the exact values calculated via computer (e.g., using a spread-
sheet or exact mathematical function such as pbinom in Splus) :
(a). The probability that in 1000 Bernoulli trials with success-
102 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
probability 0.4, the number of successes lies outside the (inclusive) range
[364, 446].
(b). The probability that of 1650 lives aged exactly 45, for whom
20
p
45
= 0.72, no more than 1075 survive to retire at age 65.
(10). If the force of mortality governing a cohort life-table is such that
µ
t
=
2
1 +t
+
2
100 −t
for real t , 0 < t < 100
then find the number of deaths which will be expected to occur between ages
1 and 4, given that the radix l
0
of the life-table is 10, 000.
(11). Find the expected present value at 5% APR of an investment whose
proceeds will with probability 1/2 be a payment of $10, 000 in exactly 5
years, and with the remaining probability 1/2 will be a payment of $20, 000
in exactly 10 years.
Hint: calculate the respective present values V
1
, V
2
of the payments in each
of the two events with probability 0.5, and find the expected value of a discrete
random variable which has values V
1
or V
2
with probabilities 0.5 each.
(12). Derive the formula for the 2’nd and 3’rd moments (that is,
_
f(t) g(t) dt
for g(t) = t
r
, r = 2, 3,) of the Gamma(α, λ) density
f(t) = (λ
α
/Γ(α!)) t
α−1
e
−λt
I
[t≥0]
as a function of parameters α and λ. Hint: change variables by y = λt.
(13). Derive the formula for the 2’nd and 3’rd moments of the
Weibull(α, β) density f(t) = β α t
α−1
e
−β t
α
I
[t≥0]
as a function of parameters α and β. Hint: change variables appropriately
and use the Gamma function.
3.8. WORKED EXAMPLES 103
3.8 Worked Examples
Example 1. Assume that a cohort life-table population satisfies l
0
= 10
4
and
d
x
=
_
_
_
200 for 0 ≤ x ≤ 14
100 for 15 ≤ x ≤ 48
240 for 49 ≤ x ≤ 63
(a) Suppose that an insurer is to pay an amount $100· (64−X) (without
regard to interest or present values related to the time-deferral of the payment)
for a newborn in the life-table population, if X denotes the attained integer
age at death. What is the expected amount to be paid ?
(b) Find the expectation requested in (a) if the insurance is purchased for
a life currently aged exactly 10 .
(c) Find the expected present value at 4% interest of a payment of $1000
to be made at the end of the year of death of a life currently aged exactly 20.
The first task is to develop an expression for survival function and density
governing the cohort life-table population. Since the numbers of deaths are
constant over intervals of years, the survival function is piecewise linear, and
the life-distribution is piecewise uniform because the the density is piecewise
constant. Specifically for this example, at integer values y,
l
y
=
_
_
_
10000 −200y for 0 ≤ y ≤ 15
7000 −100(y −15) for 16 ≤ y ≤ 49
3600 −240(y −49) for 50 ≤ y ≤ 64
It follows that the terminal age for this population is ω = 64 for this
population, and S(y) = 1 − 0.02 y for 0 ≤ y ≤ 15, 0.85 − 0.01 y for
15 ≤ y ≤ 49, and 1.536− .024 y for 49 ≤ y ≤ 64. Alternatively, extending
the function S linearly, we have the survival density f(y) = −S

(y) = 0.02
on [0, 15), = 0.01 on [15, 49), and = 0.024 on [49, 64].
Now the expectation in (a) can be written in terms of the random lifetime
variable with density f as
_
15
0
0.02 · 100 · (64 −[y]) dy +
_
49
15
0.01 · 100 · (64 −[y]) dy
104 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
+
_
64
49
0.024 · 100 · (64 −[y]) dy
The integral has been written as a sum of three integrals over different ranges
because the analytical form of the density f in the expectation-formula
_
g(y)f(y)dy is different on the three different intervals. In addition, observe
that the integrand (the function g(y) = 100(64−[y]) of the random lifetime
Y whose expectation we are seeking) itself takes a different analytical form
on successive one-year age intervals. Therefore the integral just displayed can
immediately be seen to agree with the summation formula for the expectation
of the function 100(64−X) for the integer-valued random variable X whose
probability mass function is given by
P(X = k) = d
k
/l
0
The formula is
E(g(Y )) = E(100(64 −X)) =
14

k=0
0.02 · 100 · (64 −k) +
48

k=15
0.01 · 100 · (64 −k) +
63

k=49
0.024 · 100 · (64 −k)
Thus the solution to (a) is given (after the change-of-variable j = 64 − k),
by
2.4
15

j=1
j +
49

j=16
j + 2
64

j=50
j
The displayed expressions can be summed either by a calculator program or
by means of the easily-checked formula

n
j=1
j = j(j + 1)/2 to give the
numerical answer $3103 .
The method in part (b) is very similar to that in part (a), except that
we are dealing with conditional probabilities of lifetimes given to be at least
10 years long. So the summations now begin with k = 10, or alterna-
tively end with j = 64 − k = 54, and the denominators of the conditional
probabilities P(X = k|X ≥ 10) are l
10
= 8000. The expectation in (b)
then becomes
14

k=10
200
8000
· 100· (64−k) +
48

k=15
100
8000
· 100· (64−k) +
63

k=49
240
8000
· 100· (64−k)
3.8. WORKED EXAMPLES 105
which works out to the numerical value
3.0
15

1
j + 1.25
49

16
j + 2.5
54

50
j = $2391.25
Finally, we find the expectation in (c) as a summation beginning at k =
20 for a function 1000 · (1.04)
−X+19
of the random variable X with
conditional probability distribution P(X = k|X ≥ 20) = d
k
/l
20
for k ≥ 20.
(Note that the function 1.04
−X+19
is the present value of a payment of 1
at the end of the year of death, because the end of the age- X year for an
individual currently at the 20
th
birthday is X − 19 years away.) Since
l
20
= 6500, the answer to part (c) is
1000
_
48

k=20
100
6500
(1.04)
19−k
+
63

k=49
240
6500
(1.04)
19−k
_
= 1000
_
1
65
1 −1.04
−29
0.04
+
24
650
1.04
−29
1 −(1.04)
−15
0.04
_
= 392.92
Example 2. Find the change in the expected lifetime of a cohort life-table
population governed by survival function S(x) = 1−(x/ω) for 0 ≤ x ≤ ω
if ω = 80 and
(a) the force of mortality µ(y) is multiplied by 0.9 at all exact ages
y ≥ 40, or
(b) the force of mortality µ(y) is decreased by the constant amount 0.1
at all ages y ≥ 40.
The force of mortality here is
µ(y) = −
d
dy
ln(1 −y/80) =
1
80 −y
So multiplying it by 0.9 at ages over 40 changes leaves unaffected the
density of 1/80 for ages less than 40, and for ages y over 40 changes
the density from f(y) = 1/80 to
f

(y) = −
d
dy
_
S(40) exp(−0.9
_
y
40
(80 −z)
−1
dz)
_
106 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
= −
d
dy
_
0.5 e
0.9 ln((80−y)/40)
_
= −0.5
d
dy
_
80 −y
40
_
0.9
=
0.9
80
(2 −y/40)
−0.1
Thus the expected lifetime changes from
_
80
0
(y/80) dy = 40 to
_
40
0
(y/80) dy +
_
80
40
y
0.9
80
(2 −y/40)
−0.1
dy
Using the change of variable z = 2 − y/40 in the last integral gives the
expected lifetime = 10 + .45(80/.9 −40/1.9) = 40.53.
Example 3. Suppose that you have available to you two investment possi-
bilities, into each of which you are being asked to commit $5000. The first
investment is a risk-free bond (or bank savings-account) which returns com-
pound interest of 5% for a 10-year period. The second is a ‘junk bond’
which has probability 0.6 of paying 11% compound interest and returning
your principal after 10 years, probability 0.3 of paying yearly interest at
11% for 5 years and then returning your principal of $5000 at the end
of the 10
th
year with no further interest payments, and probability 0.1
of paying yearly interest for 3 years at 11% and then defaulting, paying
no more interest and not returning the principal. Suppose further that the
going rate of interest with respect to which present values should properly
be calculated for the next 10 years will either be 4.5% or 7.5%, each
with probability 0.5. Also assume that the events governing the junk bond’s
paying or defaulting are independent of the true interest rate’s being 4.5%
versus 7.5% for the next 10 years. Which investment provides the better
expected return in terms of current (time-0) dollars ?
There are six relevant events, named and displayed along with their prob-
abilities in the following table, corresponding to the possible combinations
of true interest rate (Low versus High) and payment scenarios for the junk
bond (Full payment, Partial interest payments with return of principal, and
Default after 3 years’ interest payments):
3.8. WORKED EXAMPLES 107
Event Name Description Probability
A
1
Low ∩ Full 0.30
A
2
Low ∩ Partial 0.15
A
3
Low ∩ Default 0.05
A
4
High ∩ Full 0.30
A
5
High ∩ Partial 0.15
A
6
High ∩ Default 0.05
Note that because of independence (first defined in Section 1.1), the prob-
abilities of intersected events are calculated as the products of the separate
probabilities, e.g.,
P(A
2
) = P(Low) · P(Partial) = (0.5) · (0.30) = 0.15
Now, under each of the events A
1
, A
2
, A
3
, the present value of the first
investment (the risk-free bond) is
5000
_
10

k=1
0.05 (1.045)
−k
+ (1.045)
−10
_
= 5197.82
On each of the events A
4
, A
5
, A
6
, the present value of the first investment
is
5000
_
10

k=1
0.05 (1.075)
−k
+ (1.075)
−10
_
= 4141.99
Thus, since
P(Low) = P(A
1
∪ A
2
∪ A
3
) = P(A
1
) +P(A
2
) +P(A
3
) = 0.5
the overall expected present value of the first investment is
0.5 · (5197.82 + 4141.99) = 4669.90
Turning to the second investment (the junk bond), denoting by PV the
108 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
present value considered as a random variable, we have
E(PV | A
1
)/5000 = 0.11
10

k=1
(1.045)
−k
+ (1.045)
−10
= 1.51433
E(PV | A
4
)/5000 = 0.11
10

k=1
(1.075)
−k
+ (1.075)
−10
= 1.24024
E(PV | A
2
)/5000 = 0.11
5

k=1
(1.045)
−k
+ (1.045)
−10
= 1.12683
E(PV | A
5
)/5000 = 0.11
5

k=1
(1.075)
−k
+ (1.075)
−10
= 0.93024
E(PV | A
3
)/5000 = 0.11
3

k=1
(1.045)
−k
= 0.302386
E(PV | A
6
)/5000 = 0.11
3

k=1
(1.075)
−k
= 0.286058
Therefore, we conclude that the overall expected present value E(PV ) of
the second investment is
6

i=1
E(PV · I
A
i
) =
6

i=1
E(PV |A
i
) P(A
i
) = 5000 · (1.16435) = 5821.77
So, although the first-investment is ‘risk-free’, it does not keep up with infla-
tion in the sense that its present value is not even as large as its starting value.
The second investment, risky as it is, nevertheless beats inflation (i.e., the
expected present value of the accumulation after 10 years is greater than the
initial face value of $5000) although with probability P(Default ) = 0.10
the investor may be so unfortunate as to emerge (in present value terms)
with only 30% of his initial capital.
3.9. APPENDIX ON LARGE DEVIATION PROBABILITIES 109
3.9 Appendix to Chapter 3:
Large Deviation Probabilities
Theorem 3.2 (Large Deviation Inequalities) Suppose that X is a Bi-
nomial (N, p) random variable, denoting the number of successes in N
Bernoulli (p) trials. If 1 > b > p > c > 0, then
P(X ≥ Nb) ≤ exp
_
−N
_
b ln
_
b
p
_
+ (1 −b) ln
_
1 −b
1 −p
_
__
P(X ≤ Nc) ≤ exp
_
−N
_
c ln
_
c
p
_
+ (1 −c) ln
_
1 −c
1 −p
_
__
Proof. After the first inequality in (a) is proved, the second inequality will
be derived from it. Since the event [X ≥ Nb] is the union of the disjoint
events [X = k] for k ≥ Nb, which in turn consist of all outcome-strings
(a
1
, . . . , a
N
) ∈ {0, 1}
N
for which

N
j=1
a
j
= k ≥ Nb, a suitable subset of
the binomial probability mass function values p
X
(k) are summed to provide
P(X ≥ Nb) =

k:Nb≤k≤N
P(X = k) =

k≥Nb
_
N
k
_
p
k
(1 −p)
N−k
For every s > 1, this probability is

k≥Nb
_
N
k
_
p
k
(1 −p)
N−k
s
k−Nb
= s
−Nb

k≥Nb
_
N
k
_
(ps)
k
(1 −p)
N−k
≤ s
−Nb
N

k=0
_
N
k
_
(ps)
k
(1 −p)
N−k
= s
−Nb
(1 −p +ps)
N
Here extra terms (corresponding to k < Nb) have been added in the next-
to-last step, and the binomial theorem was applied in the last step. The trick
in the proof comes now: since the left-hand side of the inequality does not
involve s while the right-hand side does, and since the inequality must be
valid for every s > 1, it remains valid if the right-hand side is minimized
over s. The calculus minimum does exist and is unique, as you can check by
calculating that the second derivative in s is always positive. The minimum
110 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
occurs where the first derivative of the logarithm of the last expression is 0,
i.e., at s = b(1 −p)/(p(1 −b)). Substituting this value for s yields
P(X ≥ Nb) ≤
_
b (1 −p)
p (1 −b)
_
−Nb
_
1 −p
1 −b
_
N
= exp
_
−N
_
b ln
_
b
p
_
+ (1 −b) ln
_
1 −b
1 −p
__
_
as desired.
The second inequality follows from the first. Replace X by Y = N−X.
Since Y also is a count of ‘successes’ in Bernoulli (1 −p) trials, where the
‘successes’ counted by Y are precisely the ‘failures’ in the Bernoulli trials
defining X, it follows that Y also has a Binomial (N, q) distribution, where
q = 1 −p. Note also that c < p implies b = 1 −c > 1 −p = q. Therefore,
the first inequality applied to Y instead of X with q = 1−p replacing p
and b = 1 −c, gives the second inequality for P(Y ≥ Nb) = P(X ≤ Nc).
Note that for all r between 0, 1, the quantity r ln
r
p
+(1−r) ln
1−r
1−p
as a
function of r is convex and has a unique minimumof 0 at r = p. Therefore
when b > p > c, the upper bound for N
−1
lnP([X ≥ bN] ∪ [X ≤ cN]) is
strictly negative and does not involve N. For an improved estimate of the
probability bounded in Theorem 3.1, let δ ∈ (0, min(p, 1−p)) be arbitrarily
small, choose b = p +δ, c = p −δ, and combine the inequalities of part (a)
to give the precise estimate:
P(|
X
N
−p| ≥ δ) ≤ 2 · exp(−Na) (3.30)
where
a = min
_
(p +δ) ln(1 +
δ
p
) + (1 −p −δ) ln(1 −
δ
1−p
) ,
(p −δ) ln(1 −
δ
p
) + (1 −p +δ) ln(1 +
δ
1−p
)
_
> 0 (3.31)
This last inequality gives a much stronger and numerically more useful upper
bound than Theorem 3.1 on the probability with which th relative frequency
of success X/N differs from the true probability p of success by as much
as δ. The probabilities of such large deviations between X/N and δ are
in fact exponentially small as a function of the number N. 2
3.9. APPENDIX ON LARGE DEVIATION PROBABILITIES 111
If the probabilities P(|X/N −p| ≥ δ) in Theorem 3.1 are generally much
smaller than the upper bounds given for them, then why are those bounds
of interest ? (These are 1 minus the probabilities illustrated in Table 1.)
First, they provide relatively quick hand-calculated estimates showing that
large batches of independentcoin-tosses are extremely unlikely to yield rela-
tive frequencies ofheads much different from the true probability or limiting
relative frequency of heads. Another, more operational, way to render this
conclusion of Theorem 3.1 is that two very large insured cohorts with the
same true survival probabilities are very unlikely to have materially different
survival experience. However, as Table 1 illustrates, for practical purposes
the normal approximation to the binomial probabilities of large discrepancies
from the expectation is generally much more precise than the large deviation
bounds of Theorem 3.2.
The bounds given in Theorem 3.2 get small with large N much more
rapidly than the simpler bounds based on the Chebychev inequality used
in proving Theorem 3.1 (cf. Hogg and Tanis 1997). We can tolerate the
apparent looseness in the bounds because in actuarial applications involving
really extreme tail probabilities (e.g. Slud and Hoesman 1989), it can be
shown that the exponential rate of decay as a function of N in the true tail-
probabilities P
N
= P(X ≥ Nb) or P(X ≤ Nc) in Theorem 3.2 (i.e., the
constants appearing in square brackets in the exponents on the right-hand
sides of the bounds) are exactly the right ones: no larger constants replacing
them could give correct bounds.
112 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
3.10 Useful Formulas from Chapter 3
Binomial(N, p) probability P(X = k) =
_
N
k
_
p
k
(1 −p)
N−k
p. 75
Discrete r.v. Expectation E(c(Z)) =
m

i=1
c(z
i
) p
Z
(z
i
)
p. 85
Non-neg. integer-valued r.v. Expectation E(Z) =

j=1
P(Z ≥ j)
p. 90
Curtate life expectancy e
x
=
ω−x−1

j=1
j
p
x
p. 91
k
p
x
= p
x
p
x+1
p
x+2
· · · p
x+k−1
, k ≥ 1 integer
p. 92
k/m
p
x
=
k−1

j=0
1/m
p
x+j/m
, k ≥ 1 integer
p. 92
(i) Piecewise Unif. S(x+t) = tS(x+1)+(1−t)S(x) , x integer , t ∈ [0, 1]
p. 94
3.10. USEFUL FORMULAS FROM CHAPTER 3 113
(ii) Piecewise Const. µ : lnS(x +t) = t lnS(x + 1) + (1 −t) lnS(x)
p. 94
(iii) Balducci hypothesis
1
S(x +t)
=
t
S(x + 1)
+
1 −t
S(x)
p. 94
t
p
x
=
S(x) −t(S(x + 1) −S(x))
S(x)
= 1 −t q
x
under (i)
p. 95
t
p
x
=
S(x +t)
S(x)
=
_
e
−µ(x)
_
t
= (1 −q
x
)
t
under (ii)
p. 95
t
p
x
=
S(x +t)
S(x + 1)
S(x + 1)
S(x)
=
1 −q
x
1 −(1 −t)q
x
under (iii)
p. 96
Complete life expectancy ˚e
x
=
_
ω−x
0
s
p
x
ds
p. 97
Γ(α) =
_

0
x
α−1
e
−x
dx
p. 98
Φ(x) =
1


_
x
−∞
e
−z
2
/2
dz
p. 98
114 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
Chapter 4
Expected Present Values of
Insurance Contracts
We are now ready to draw together the main strands of the development so
far: (A) expectations of discrete and continuous random variables defined
as functions of a life-table waiting time T until death, and (B) discounting
of future payment (streams) based on interest-rate assumptions. We first
define the contractual terms of and discuss relations between the major sorts
of insurance, endowment and life annuity contracts, and next to use interest
theory to define the present value of the contractual payment stream by the
insurer as a nonrandom function of the random individual lifetime T. In
each case, this leads to a formula for the expected present value of the payout
by the insurer, an amount called the net single premium or net single
risk premium of the contract because it is the single cash payment by
the insured at the beginning of the insurance period which would exactly
compensate for the average of the future payments which the insurer will
have to make.
The details of the further mathematical discussion fall into two parts:
first, the specification of formulas in terms of cohort life-table quantities for
net single premiums of insurances and annuities which pay only at whole-year
intervals; and second, the application of the various survival assumptions con-
cerning interpolation between whole years of age, to obtain the corresponding
formulas for insurances and annuities which have m payment times per year.
We close this Chapter with a discussion of instantaneous-payment insurance,
115
116 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
continuous-payment annuity, and mean-residual-life formulas, all of which
involve continuous-time expectation integrals. We also relate these expecta-
tions with their m-payment-per-year discrete analogues, and compare the
corresponding integral and summation formulas.
Similar discussions can be found in the books Life Contingencies by Jor-
dan (1967) and Actuarial Mathematics by Bowers et al. (1997). The ap-
proach here differs in unifying concepts by discussing together all of the
different contracts, first in the whole-year case, next under the interpolation
assumption (i) with m payment periods per year, and finally in the instan-
taneous case.
4.1 Preliminaries
The topic of study in this Chapter is contracts resulting in contingent pay-
ment streams depending on the age at death T of a single individual. There
are three major types of contracts to consider: insurance, life annuities, and
endowments. More complicated kinds of contracts — which we do not dis-
cuss in detail — can be obtained by combining (superposing or subtracting)
these in various ways. Of course, other types of insurances on lives do exist,
which pay only when a single life terminates due to a specified cause or set of
causes (insurances based on multiple decrement tables), or which contractu-
ally involve more than one life (for example husband-wife pairs), insurances
and annuities on joint lives. For these further topics, we refer the reader to
Bowers et al. (1997). Only single life contracts without distinctions between
causes of mortality are discussed here.
In what follows, we adopt several uniform notations and assumptions.
Let x denote the initial integer age of the holder of the insurance, life
annuity, or endowment contract, assuming for convenience that the contract
is initiated on the holder’s birthday. Fix a nonrandom effective interest rate
i , and retain the notation v = (1 +i)
−1
, together with the other notations
previously discussed for annuities of nonrandom duration. Next, denote by
m the number of payment-periods per year, all times being measured from
the date of policy initiation. Thus, for given m, an insurance will pay
off at the end of the fraction 1/m of a year during which death occurs,
and life-annuities pay regularly m times per year until the annuitant dies.
4.1. PRELIMINARIES 117
The term or duration n of the contract will always be assumed to be an
integer multiple of 1/m. Note that policy durations are all measured from
policy initiation, and therefore are smaller by x than the exact age of the
policyholder at termination. Thus, we refer to policy time for the life aged
x as the time scale with origin at policy initiation, assumed to be the x
birthday of the policy-holder, and at chronological age t for the policyholder,
we say the policy age is t −x.
The random exact age at which the policyholder dies is denoted by T,
and all of the contracts under discussion have the property that T is the
only random variable upon which either the amount or time of payment can
depend. In examples based on m payment periods per year, the amount of
the payment will be assumed to depend on T only through the greatest
integer less than or equal to mT.
If
k
m
≤ T −x <
k + 1
m
, then T
m

[mT]
m
= x +
k
m
(4.1)
denotes the attained age at death measured in completed (1/m)’th years.
As before, the survival function of T is denoted S(t), and the density by
f(t). The probabilities of the various possible occurrences under the policy
are therefore calculated using the conditional probability distribution of T
given that T ≥ x, which has continuous probability density f(t)/S(x) at
all times t ≥ x. When the amounts and times of payments under a contract
depend only on the whole-year age at death (m = 1), all probabilities and
conditional expectations refer only to the discrete random variable [T] = T
1
and are calculated in terms of the conditional probability mass function,
given for nonnegative integers x, k by
P([T] = x +k | [T] ≥ x) = P(k ≤ T −x < k + 1 | T ≥ x)
=
k
p
x

k+1
p
x
=
k
p
x
q
x+k
(4.2)
and depends only on the cohort life-table entries, since the displayed condi-
tional probability is precisely d
x+k
/l
x
.
In the setting where the insurance and annuity contracts are formulated
in terms of m possible death and payment periods per year, the probability
calculations necessarily involve interpolations of the survival function S(t)
within whole years of age, but only to values t of the form x + k/m, k
118 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
an integer. Then all conditional expecations are calculated in terms of the
probability mass function of the random variable T
m
given as in (4.1):
P(T
m
= x +
k
m
¸
¸
¸ T
m
≥ x) = P(
k
m
≤ T −x <
k + 1
m
¸
¸
¸ T ≥ x)
=
1
S(x)
_
S(x +
k
m
) −S(x +
k + 1
m
)
_
=
k/m
p
x

(k+1)/m
p
x
= P(T ≥ x +
k
m
¸
¸
¸ T ≥ x) · P(T < x +
k + 1
m
¸
¸
¸ T ≥ x +
k
m
)
=
k/m
p
x
·
1/m
q
x+k/m
(4.3)
4.2 Insurance & Life Annuity Contracts
An Insurance contract is an agreement to pay a face amount — perhaps
modified by a specified function of the time until death — if the insured, a
life aged x, dies at any time during a specified period, the term of the policy,
with payment to be made at the end of the 1/m year within which the death
occurs. Usually the payment will simply be the face amount F(0), but for
example in decreasing term policies the payment will decrease linearly as a
function of T
m
over the term of the policy. The insurance is said to be a
whole-life policy if the duration n = ∞, and a term insurance otherwise.)
The general form of this contract, for a specified term n ≤ ∞, payment-
amount function F(·), and number m of possible payment-periods per
year, is to
pay F(T −x) at T
m
−x +
1
m
time units following
policy initiation, if T ∈ [x, x +n). (Ins
m
)
Specializing to the case m = 1, so that T
m
= [T] is the whole-year age
at death, the present value of the insurance company’s payment under the
contract (Ins) or (Ins
1
) is
_
F([T −x]) v
[T−x]+1
if x ≤ T < x +n
0 otherwise
(4.4)
4.2. TYPES OF CONTRACTS 119
The simplest and most common case of this contract and formula arise
when the face-amount F(0) = F is the constant amount paid whenever
a death within the term occurs. Then the payment is F, with present value
F v
[T]−x+1
, if x ≤ T < x + n, and both the payment and present value
are 0 otherwise. In this case, with F ≡ 1, the net single premium has the
standard notation A
1
x:n
. When the insurance is whole-life (n = ∞), the
subscript n and bracket
n
and superscript
1
over x are dropped, so
that A
1
x:∞
≡ A
x
.
A Life Annuity contract is an agreement to pay a scheduled payment to
the policyholder at every interval 1/m of a year while the annuitant is alive,
up to a maximum number of nm payments. Again the payment amounts are
ordinarily constant, but in principle any nonrandom time-dependent schedule
of payments F(k/m) can be used, where F(s) is a fixed function and s
ranges over multiples of 1/m. To avoid ambiguity, we adopt the convention
that in the finite-term or temporary life annuities, either F(0) = 0 or
F(n) = 0. In this general setting, the life annuity contract requires the
insurer to
pay amounts F(k/m) at policy times
k
m
,
0 ≤
k
m
≤ T −x, at most nm payments. (LifAnn
m
)
As in the case of annuities certain (the nonrandom annuities discussed in
Chapter 1), we refer to life annuities with first payment at time 0 as (life)
annuities-due and to those with first payment at time 1/m (and therefore
last payment at time n in the case of a finite term n over which the
annuitant survives) as (life) annuities-immediate.
Again specialize to the case m = 1: under the contract (LifAnn) or
(LifAnn
1
), up to n payments are made (since F(0) = 0 or F(n) = 0), and
the present value of the insurance company’s payment under the life annuity
contract is
[T−x]

k=0
F(k) v
k
(4.5)
Here the situation is definitely simpler in the case where the payment amounts
F(k) are level or constant, either F(k) ≡ F for k = 0, 1, . . . , n − 1, or
F(k) ≡ F for k = 1, 2, . . . , n. In the first of these cases, the life-annuity-
due payment stream becomes an annuity-due certain (the kind discussed
120 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
previously under the Theory of Interest) as soon as the random variable T
is fixed. Indeed, if we replace F(k) by 1 for k = 0, 1, . . . , n − 1, and
by 0 for larger indices k, then the present value in equation (4.5) is
¨ a
min([T]−x+1, n)
, and its expected present value (= net single premium) is
denoted ¨ a
x:n
. In the case of temporary life annuities-immediate, which have
payments commencing at policy time 1 and continuing annually either until
death or for a total of n payments, the present value formula as a function of
[T] is the certain annuity immediate a
min([T]−x, n)
, since this is the present
value of the pattern of annual unit payments starting at policy time 1 up to
[T −x] or n, whichever comes first. The expected-present value notation for
temporary life annuities immediate is a
x:n
.
The third major type of insurance contract is the Endowment, which
pays a contractual face amount F = F(0) at the end of n policy years if
the policyholder initially aged x survives to age x+n. This contract is the
simplest, since neither the amount nor the time of payment, only whether the
payment is made at all, is uncertain. The pure endowment contract commits
the insurer to
pay an amount F at policy time n if T ≥ x+n (Endow)
The present value of the pure endowment contract payment is
F v
n
if T ≥ x +n, 0 otherwise (4.6)
The net single premium or expected present value for a pure endowment
contract with face amount F = 1 is denoted A
1
x:n
or
n
E
x
and is evidently
equal to
A
1
x:n
=
n
E
x
= v
n
n
p
x
(4.7)
The other contract frequently referred to in actuarial texts is the Endow-
ment Insurance, which for a life aged x and term n is simply the sum
of the pure endowment and the term insurance, both with term n and the
same face amount 1. Here the standard contract with m payment periods
per year and unit level face amount calls for the insurer to
pay 1 at policy time
_
T
m
−x + 1/m if T < x +n
n if T ≥ x +n
(EndIns
m
)
4.2. TYPES OF CONTRACTS 121
Simplifying to the case of a single payment per year (m = 1), we express the
present value of this contract as v
n
on the event [T ≥ n] and as v
[T−x]+1
on the complementary event [T < n]. Note that [T −x] +1 ≤ n whenever
T −x < n. Thus, in both cases, the present value is given by
v
min([T−x]+1, n)
(4.8)
The expected present value of the unit endowment insurance (still in the case
m = 1) is denoted A
x:n
. The notations for the net single premium of the
term insurance and of the pure endowment are intended to be mnemonic,
respectively denoting the portions of the endowment insurance net single
premium respectively triggered by the expiration of life — in which case the
superscript 1 is positioned above the x —or by the expiration of the fixed
term, in which case the superscript 1 is positioned above the term n.
Another example of an insurance contract which does not need separate
treatment, because it is built up simply from the contracts already described,
is the n-year deferred insurance. This policy pays a constant face amount
at the end of the current fraction 1/m year containing the policy time
T − x, but only if death occurs after the deferral time n , i.e., after age
x+n for a new policyholder aged precisely x. When the face amount is 1,
the contractual payout is precisely the difference between the unit whole-life
insurance and the n-year unit term insurance. When m = 1, the notation
and formula for the net single premium is
n
A
x
= A
x
− A
1
x:n
(4.9)
4.2.1 Formal Relations between Risk Premiums, m = 1
In this subsection, we collect a few useful identities connecting the different
types of risk premiums for contracts with m = 1 payment period per year.
These identities therefore hold and can be used in computational formulas
without regard to particular life-table interpolation assumptions. The first,
which we have already seen, is the definition of endowment insurance as the
superposition of a constant-face-amount term insurance with a pure endow-
ment of the same face amount and term. In terms of net single premiums,
this identity is
A
x:n
= A
1
x:n
+ A
1
x:n
(4.10)
122 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
Another important identity concerns the relation between expected present
values of endowment insurances and life annuities. The great generality ofthe
identity arises from the fact we saw in the discussion following (4.5) that, for
a fixed value of the random lifetime T, the present value of the life annuity-
due payout coincides with the annuity-due certain, and is given by
¨ a
min([T−x]+1, n)
=
1 −v
min([T−x]+1, n)
d
where the second expression follows from the first via formula (2.4). Thus,
the unit life annuity-due has present value which is a simple linear function of
v
min([T−x]+1, n)
which we saw in (4.8) is the present value of the unit endow-
ment insurance. Taking expectations (over values of the random variable T,
conditionally given T ≥ x) in the present value formula, and substituting
A
(m)
x:n
as expectation of (4.8), then yields:
¨ a
x:n
= E
x
_
1 −v
min([T−x]+1, n)
d
_
=
1 −A
x:n
d
(4.11)
where recall that E
x
( · ) denotes the conditional expectation E( · | T ≥ x).
A more common and algebraically equivalent form of the identity (4.11) is
d ¨ a
x:n
+ A
x:n
= 1 (4.12)
To obtain a corresponding identity relating net single premiums for life
annuities-immediate to those of endowment insurances, we need to relate
the risk premiums for life annuities-immediate to those of life annuities-due.
Unlike the case of annuities-certain (i.e., nonrandom-duration annuities), one
cannot simply multiply the present value of the life annuity-due for fixed
T by the discount-factor v in order to obtain the corresponding present
value for the life annuity-immediate with the same term n. The difference
arises because the payment streams (for the life annuity-due deferred 1 year
and the life-annuity immediate) end at the same time rather than with the
same number of payments when death occurs before time n. The correct
conversion-formula is obtained by treating the life annuity-immediate of term
n as paying, in all circumstances, a present value of 1 (equal to the cash
payment at policy initiation) less than the life annuity-due with term n+ 1.
Taking expectations leads to the formula
a
x:n
= ¨ a
x:n+1
− 1 (4.13)
4.2. TYPES OF CONTRACTS 123
Now, combining this conversion-formula with the identity (4.11), we find
a
x:n
= ¨ a
x:n+1
− 1 =
1 −A
x:n+1
d
−1 =
1
i

1
d
A
x:n+1
(4.14)
and
d a
x:n
+ A
x:n+1
=
d
i
= v (4.15)
In these formulas, we have made use of the definition 1/d = (1 + i)/i,
leading to the simplifications
1/d = 1/i + 1 , i/d = 1 +i = v
−1
Since the n-year deferred insurance with risk premium (4.9) pays a benefit
only if the insured survives at least n years, it can alternatively be viewed
as an endowment with benefit equal to a whole life insurance to the insured
(then aged x + n) after n years if the insured lives that long. With
this interpretation, the n-year deferred insurance has net single premium
=
n
E
x
· A
x+n
. This expected present value must therefore be equal to
(4.9), providing the identity:
A
x
− A
1
x:n
= v
n
n
p
x
· A
x+n
(4.16)
4.2.2 Formulas for Net Single Premiums
All of the net single premiums (or risk premiums) considered so far are com-
putable completely in terms of of life-table quantities
j
p
x
and q
x+j
. To
emphasize the fact that these risk premiums depend on cohort life table
quantities alone, this subsection collects the formulas for risk premiums of
the insurance, annuity, and endowment contracts defined above, written ex-
plicitly as sums for the case m = 1. Recall for this purpose the conditional
probability mass function (4.2) of [T −x] given T ≥ x.
Here and from now on, for an event B depending on the random lifetime
T, the notation I
B
denotes the so-called indicator random variable which is
equal to 1 whenever T has a value such that the condition B is satisfied
and is equal to 0 otherwise.
124 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
I
B
= 1 if condition B holds , = 0 if not
First, the expectation of the present value (4.4) of the random term in-
surance payment (with level face value F(0) ≡ 1) is
A
1
x:n
= E
x
_
v
[T−x]+1
I
{T≤x+n}
_
=
n−1

k=0
v
(k+1)/m
k
p
x
q
x+k
(4.17)
The index k in the summation formula denotes the year of policy time
within which death occurs, k ≤ T −x < k +1. The summation itself is the
weighted sum, over all indices k such that k < n, of the present values
v
k+1
to be paid by the insurer in the event that the policy age at death falls
in [k, k +1), multiplied by the probability, given in formula (4.2), that this
event occurs.
Putting together the formula (4.17) with the previous identity (4.10) pro-
vides us with a formula for the net single premium of the endowment insur-
ance,
A
x:n
=
n−1

k=0
v
k+1
_
k
p
x

k+1
p
x
_
+ v
n
n
p
x
(4.18)
Next, to figure the expected present value of the life annuity-due with term
n, note that payments of 1 occur at all policy ages k, k = 0, . . . , n −1,
for which T −x ≥ k. Therefore, since the present values of these payments
are v
k
and the payment at policy time k is made with probability
k
p
x
,
¨ a
x:n
= E
x
_
n−1

k=0
v
k
I
{T−x≥k}
_
=
n−1

k=0
v
k
k
p
x
(4.19)
Finally the pure endowment has present value
n
E
x
= E
x
_
v
n
I
[T−x≥n]
_
= v
n
x
p
n
(4.20)
Most generally of all, a contract which pays G(k) at policy time k if the
insured life initially aged x survives to age x +k, and which pays F(k) at
4.3. EXTENSION TO MULTIPLE PAYMENTS PER YEAR 125
policy time k+1 if the insured life aged x dies at age T ∈ [x+k, x+k+1),
has net single (risk) premium equal to
E
x
_
ω−x−1

k=0
_
G(k) v
k
I
{T≥x+k}
+ F(k) v
k+1
I
{[T−x]=k}
__
=
ω−x−1

k=0
k
p
x
_
G(k) v
k
+ F(k) v
k+1
q
x+k
_
(4.21)
where P([T −x] = k | T ≥ x) has been expressed as in (4.2). This setting,
where both functions G(k) and F(k) could depend on a finite term param-
eter n, encompasses all of the insurances, life annuities, and endowments
introduced so far in this Chapter.
The formulas (4.17) and (4.19) and (4.21) are benchmarks in the sense
that they represent a complete solution to the problem of determining net
single premiums without the need for interpolation of the life-table survival
function between integer ages. However the insurance, life-annuity, and
endowment-insurance contracts payable only at whole-year intervals are all
slightly impractical as insurance vehicles. In the next section, we approach
the calculation of net single premiums for the more realistic context of m-
period-per-year insurances and life annuities, using only the standard cohort
life-table data collected by integer attained ages.
4.3 Risk Premiums & Relations, m > 1
At this point, we return to the basic definitions of the standard insurance,
annuity, and endowment contracts defined above, in order to extend the
theoretical formulas, and identities to cover the case of general m-payment-
period per year contracts.
The pure endowment contract (Endow) with present value formula (4.6),
and net single premium notation and formula (4.7), does not require any
separate discussion here, since it involved only a single potential payment
at an integer policy time. It is therefore no different for general m than for
m = 1.
126 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
Next we consider the pure term insurance (Ins
m
) with term n and m
payment periods per year, and level face amount. Recall that this contract,
with unit face amount, pays 1 at the end of the 1/m year of death, if
death occurs before policy time n. That is, the payment of 1 occurs at
policy time k/m if k/m ≤ T − x < (k + 1)/m, k/m < n. Accordingly,
the present value of the insurer’s payment is
nm−1

k=0
v
(k+1)/m
I
{k/m≤T−x<(k+1)/m}
(4.22)
and the net single premium or expected present value is
A
(m)1
x:n
=
nm−1

k=0
v
(k+1)/m
k/m
p
x 1/m
q
x+k/m
(4.23)
Here k/m in the summation formula denotes the beginning of the 1/m
year of policy time within which death is to occur. Again the risk premium
summation is the weighted sum, over all indices k such that k/m < n, of
the present values v
(k+1)/m
to be paid by the insurer in the event that the
policy age at death falls in [k/m, (k +1)/m) multiplied by the probability,
given in formula (4.3), that this event occurs.
To figure the expected present value of the life annuity-due with term n,
note that payments of 1/m occur at all policy ages k/m, k = 0, . . . , nm−1,
for which T − x ≥ k/m. Therefore, since the present values of these
payments are (1/m) v
k/m
and the payment at k/m is made with probability
k/m
p
x
,
¨ a
(m)
x:n
= E
x
_
nm−1

k=0
1
m
v
k/m
I
[T−x≥k/m]
_
=
1
m
nm−1

k=0
v
k/m
k/m
p
x
(4.24)
The useful identities described in Section 4.2.1 above, connecting the
different types of risk premiums for contracts with m = 1 payment period
per year, all have extensions to general m payment per year contracts.
The first extension, analogous to (4.10), is the definition of endowment
insurance as the superposition of a constant-face-amount term insurance with
a pure endowment of the same face amount and term. Recall that the m-
payment-period per year endowment insurance with term n and unit face
4.3. EXTENSION TO MULTIPLE PAYMENTS PER YEAR 127
amount pays 1 at policy time (k +1)/m if k/m ≤ T −x < (k +1)/m for
k = 0, 1, . . . , nm− 1, and pays 1 at policy time n if T ≥ x +n. The
present value of the payout clearly has the single epxression v
min(Tm−x+1/m, n)
.
In terms of net single premiums, the notational identity is
A
(m)
x:n
= A
(m)1
x:n
+ A
(m) 1
x:n
=
m(ω−x)−1

k=0
v
min((k+1)/m, n)
k/m
p
x 1/m
q
x+k/m
(4.25)
=
nm−1

k=0
v
(k+1)/m
k/m
p
x 1/m
q
x+k/m
+ v
n
n
p
x
Again we find a formula for the endowment insurance by a combining the
identity (4.25) with the formula (4.23) for Insurance:
A
(m)
x:n
=
nm−1

k=0
v
(k+1)/m
_
k/m
p
x

(k+1)/m
p
x
_
+ v
n
n
p
x
(4.26)
The general identity (4.11) concerning the relation between expected
present values of endowment insurances and life annuities also extends straight-
forwardly. With m payments per year, and the individual payments of 1/m
again totalling 1 per year, the term-n life annuity-due payout is given via
formula (2.4) by
¨ a
(m)
min(Tm−x+1/m, n)
= (1 −v
min(Tm−x+1/m, n)
) / d
(m)
Again the unit life annuity-due has present value which is a simple linear func-
tion of the present value v
min(Tm−x+1/m, n)
of the unit endowment insurance.
Taking expectations (over values of the random variable T, conditionally
given T ≥ x) in the present value formula, and substituting the notation
A
(m)
x:n
then yields:
¨a
(m)
x:n
= E
x
_
1 −v
min(Tm−x+1/m, n)
d
(m)
_
=
1 −A
(m)
x:n
d
(m)
(4.27)
where recall that E
x
( · ) denotes the conditional expectation E( · | T ≥ x).
An algebraically equivalent form of the identity (4.27) is
d
(m)
¨ a
(m)
x:n
+ A
(m)
x:n
= 1 (4.28)
128 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
For multiple payment periods per year, the idea for converting from risk
premiums of life annuities-due to life annuities immediate is very similar to
the idea behind the conversion formula (4.13) for m = 1. The payment
stream for the unit annuity-immediate to a life aged x with payment of 1 per
year, term n years, and m payments per year consists of payments 1/m
at each of the policy times k/m such that 1 ≤ k ≤ nm and k/n ≤ T −x.
The corresponding payment stream for an annuity-due with term n +1/m
is exaxtly the same, except that the latter omits the initial payment of 1/m
at time 0. Therefore the respective expected present values a
(m)
x:n
and
¨ a
(m)
x:n+1/m
differ by exactly the present value of that initial payment of 1/m,
establishing the identity
a
(m)
x:n
= ¨ a
(m)
x:n+1/m

1
m
= E
x
_
¨ a
(m)
min(Tm−x,n)+1/m
_
(4.29)
From this m-payment-period conversion formula, we directly obtain an iden-
tity relating the net single premium for life annuities-immediate with m
payment periods per year to that of the m payment period endowment
insurances. The result is
a
(m)
x:n
= ¨ a
(m)
x:n+1/m

1
m
=
1 −A
(m)
x:n+1/m
d
(m)

1
m
=
1
i
(m)

1
d
(m)
A
(m)
x:n+1/m
(4.30)
and
d
(m)
a
(m)
x:n
+A
(m)
x:n+1/m
=
d
(m)
i
(m)
= v
1/m
(4.31)
In these formulas, we have made use of the definition
m/ d
(m)
= (1 + i
(m)
/m)
_
(i
(m)
/m)
leading to the simplifications
m
d
(m)
=
m
i
(m)
+ 1 ,
i
(m)
d
(m)
= 1 +
i
(m)
m
= v
−1/m
We conclude this section with a general formula extending (4.21). A
contract which, for all integers k = 0, 1, . . . , m(ω−x)−1, pays
1
m
G
x
(k/m)
at policy time k/m if the insured life initially aged x survives to age x+k/m,
4.3. EXTENSION TO MULTIPLE PAYMENTS PER YEAR 129
and which pays F
x
(k/m) at policy time (k +1)/m if the insured life aged
x dies within the exact-age interval T ∈ [x +k/m, x +(k +1)/m), has net
single (risk) premium equal to
E
x
_
m(ω−x)−1

k=0
_
1
m
G
x
(k/m) v
k/m
I
{T−x≥k/m}
+F
x
(k/m) v
(k+1)/m
I
{Tm−x=k/m}
__
=
m(ω−x)−1

k=0
k/m
p
x
_
1
m
G
x
(k) v
k/m
+ F
x
(k/m) v
(k+1)/m
1/m
q
x+k/m
_
(4.32)
See the Worked Examples (numbers 3 and 4) for illustrations of numerical
calculations with the standard formulas (4.22) and (4.24), as well as the
general formula (4.32).
The idea behind equation (4.32) can also be used to express the net single
premium of a life insurance or annuity in a varying interest rate environment.
Following the ideas of Sections 1.2.4 and 1.2.5, we know that the present
valueof a unit payment at policy time t under a time-varying instantaneous
interest rate r(s) ≡ exp(δ(s)) − 1 (expressed in terms of the policy time-
argument s) is 1/A(t) = exp(−
_
t
0
δ(s) ds). Then the present value of a
term insurance of duration n with level payment amount F at policy
time (k + 1)/m if the insured life aged x dies within the exact-age interval
T ∈ [x +k/m, x + (k + 1)/m), 0 ≤ k < nm, is given by
F · exp
_

_
(k+1)/m
0
δ(s) ds
_
I
{Tm=x+k/m}
=
F
A((k + 1)/m)
I
{k/m≤T−x<(k+1)/m}
Similarly, the present value of a temporary life annuity due of duration n
which makes level payments of amount
1
m
G at all policy times k/m ≤
min(T −x, n), is
G
m
·
nm−1

j=0
exp
_

_
j/m
0
δ(s) ds
_
I
{j/m≤T−x}
=
G
m
nm−1

j=0
1
A(k/m)
I
{j/m≤T−x}
Then the net single premium of a contract which pays G/m at policy time
k/m ≤ n if the insured life initially aged x survives to age x + k/m, and
which pays F at policy time (k + 1)/m ≤ n if the insured life aged x
130 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
dies within the exact-age interval T ∈ [x + k/m, x + (k + 1)/m), is the
expectation of the sum of the last two displayed expressions, and is given by
nm−1

k=0
k/m
p
x
_
G
m · A(k/m)
+
F
A((k + 1)/m)
1/m
q
x+k/m
_
(4.33)
4.4 Interpolation Formulas in Risk Premiums
A key issue in understanding the special nature of life insurances and annu-
ities with multiple payment periods is the calculation of these probabilities
from the underlying probabilities
j
p
y
(for integers j, y) which can be de-
duced or estimated from life-tables. In the present Section, we combine the
Actuarial Assumption — (i) of Chapter 3, saying that deaths are uniformly
distributed within whole year of age — with the insurance and (temporary)
life annuity-due risk premium formulas. In this setting, the number m of
payment periods per year is greater than 1, and by formula (3.23) for all
integers j = 0, 1, . . . , m−1:
j/m
p
x
= 1 −
j/m
q
x
= 1 − (j/m) q
x
so that
j/m
p
x 1/m
q
x+j/m
=
j/m
p
x

(j+1)/m
p
x
= (1/m) q
x
For any integer k = bm+j, where 0 ≤ l < m−1 and b is an integer,
k/m
p
x 1/m
q
x+k/m
=
b
p
x
(
j/m
p
x+b

(j+1)/m
p
x+b
) = (1/m)
b
p
x
q
x+b
(4.34)
Substituting (4.34) into (4.23) with summation indices k = bm+j, gives
A
(m)1
x:n
=
n−1

b=0
m−1

j=0
v
b+(j+1)/m
b+j/m
p
x 1/m
q
x+b+j/m
=
1
m
n−1

b=0
v
b
b
p
x
q
x+b
m−1

j=0
v
(j+1)/m
=
_
1
m
m−1

j=0
v
(j+1)/m
_
· (1 +i)
_
n−1

b=0
v
b+1
b
p
x
q
x+b
_
4.4. INTERPOLATION FORMULAS IN RISK PREMIUMS 131
The two factors in parentheses in the final displayed expression are respec-
tively the one-year annuity-immediate present value a
(m)
1
and the one-
payment-per-year term insurance risk-premium A
1
x:n
. Since
(1 +i) a
(m)
1
= (1 +i) (1 −v)/i
(m)
= i/i
(m)
it follows that under interpolation assumption (i),
A
(m)1
x:n
= (i/i
(m)
)
n−1

b=0
v
b+1
b
p
x
q
x+b
= (i/i
(m)
) A
1
x:n
(4.35)
Similarly, formula (4.34) substituted into the temporary life annuity for-
mula (4.24) with summation index k = bm+j gives
¨a
(m)
x:n
=
1
m
n−1

b=0
m−1

j=0
v
b+j/m
j/m
p
x+b
·
b
p
x
=
1
m
n−1

b=0
v
b
b
p
x
m−1

j=0
v
j/m
(1−
j
m
q
x+b
)
=
1
m
m−1

j=0
v
j/m
¨ a
x:n

1 +i
m
2
_
m−1

j=0
j v
j/m
_
A
1
x:n
(4.36)
This formula can be reduced further in either of two ways. First, one can
appeal to the definition of increasing temporary annuity-due and refer to the
formula given in paragraph (iv) of Section 2.1.1:
1
m
2
m−1

j=0
j v
j/m
=
1
m
2
m−1

j=0
(j + 1) v
j/m

1
m
¨ a
(m)
1
= (I
(m)
¨ a)
(m)
1

1 −v
md
(m)
=
1
d
(m)
_
1 −v
d
(m)
− v −
1 −v
m
_
(4.37)
Alternatively, using the identity
A
(m)
x:n
= A
(m)1
x:n
+ v
n
n
p
x
within (4.27), and directly substituting (4.35), yields under (i)
¨ a
(m)
x:n
=
1
d
(m)
_
1 −
i
i
(m)
A
1
x:n
− v
n
n
p
x
_
(4.38)
We leave as an Exercise for the interested reader to verify algebraically, using
(4.37) together with (4.11), that the formulas (4.36) and (4.38) are equal.
132 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
4.5 Continuous Risk Premium Formulas
The present chapter has developed formulas for the net single premiums or
risk premiums of the principal life insurance and annuity contracts, first in
the setting of one payment period per year (m = 1) and then in the case
of multiple payment periods (m > 1) per year. In the limit as m gets
large, the risk premium formulas become expected present values calculated
as continuous integrals with respect to survival densities. To recall why this
limit exists, note that for any function g(T) which depends on T only
through the last completed 1/m’th year T
m
= [Tm]/m,
E
x
(g(T)) =
m(ω−x)−1

k=0
g(x +k/m)
k/m
p
x 1/m
p
x+k/m
where we have used (4.3) as the probability mass function for T
m
. The
displayed expectation formula is then also valid with m replaced by any
integer multiple M = mn, n ≥ 1, and has the equivalent expression
M(ω−x)−1

k=0
g(x +k/M)
S(x)
_
x+(k+1)/M
x+k/M
f(t) dt
=
1
S(x)
M(ω−x)−1

k=0
_
x+(k+1)/M
x+k/M
g(t) f(t) dt =
_
ω−x
0
g(x +s)
f(x +s)
S(x)
ds
Assume now that the function g(t) is continuous (and therefore uniformly
continuous) on the bounded lifetime interval [0, ω], so that g(t)−g([tM]/M
can be made uniformly small by choice of a sufficiently large multiple M of
m. Since the displayed expectation formulas are exactly valid when applied
to the function g([tM]/M, it follows also for the general continuous function
g that
E
x
(g(T)) = lim
M→∞
E
x
(g(T
M
)) =
_
ω−x
0
g(x +s)
f(x +s)
S(x)
ds (4.39)
or, with the substitution f(x +s) = µ(x +s) S(x +s),
E
x
(g(T)) =
_
ω−x
0
g(x +s) µ(x +s)
S(x +s)
S(x)
ds (4.40)
4.5. CONTINUOUS RISK PREMIUM FORMULAS 133
Similar justifications can be given for these expectation formulas also when-
ever g is piecewise continuous. These integral formulas can be used either
to calculate the limiting values of expected present values for insurance con-
tracts with large m, or to calculate other expectations of demographic and
biostatistical interest, such as life expectancies.
4.5.1 Continuous Insurance Contracts
So far in this Chapter, all of the expectations considered have been associ-
ated with the discretized random lifetime variables [T] and T
m
= [mT]/m.
However, Insurance and Annuity contracts can also be defined with re-
spectively instantaneous and continuous payments, as follows. First, an
instantaneous-payment or continuous insurance with face-value F
is a contract which pays an amount F at the instant of death of the in-
sured. (In practice, this means that when the actual payment is made at
some later time, the amount paid is F together with interest compounded
from the instant of death.) As a function of the random lifetime T for
the insured life initially with exact integer age x, the present value of the
amount paid is F · v
T−x
for a whole-life insurance and F · v
T−x
· I
[T<x+n]
for an n-year term insurance. The expected present values or net single pre-
miums on a life aged x are respectively denoted A
x
for a whole-life contract
and A
1
x:n
for an n-year term insurance. The continuous life annuity is
a contract which provides continuous payments at rate 1 per unit time for
duration equal to the smaller of the remaining lifetime of the annuitant or
the term of n years. Here the present value of the contractual payments,
as a function of the exact age T at death for an annuitant initially of exact
integer age x, is a
min(T−x, n)
where n is the (possibly infinite) duration
of the life annuity. Recall that
a
K
=
_

0
v
t
I
[t≤K]
dt =
_
K
0
v
t
dt = (1 −v
K
)/δ
is the present value of a continuous payment stream of 1 per unit time of
duration K units, where v = (1 +i)
−1
and δ = ln(1 +i) . The actuarial
notation for the net single premium of the temporary continuous life annuity
is ¯ a
x:n
which simplifies to ¯ a
x
when n = ∞.
The objective of this section is to develop and interpret formulas for the
134 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
continuous-time net single premiums, along with one further quantity which
has been defined as a continuous-time expectation of the lifetime variable T,
namely the mean residual life (also called complete life expectancy)
˚e
x
= E
x
(T −x) for a life aged x.
4.5.2 Integral Formulas
We apply the continuous conditional expectation formulas (4.39) or (4.40)
directly for the three choices
g(y) = y −x , v
y−x
, or v
y−x
· I
{y−x<n}
which respectively have the conditional E
x
(·) expectations
˚e
x
, A
x
, A
1
x:n
For easy reference, the integral formulas for these three cases are:
˚e
x
= E
x
(T −x) =
_

0
s µ(x +s)
s
p
x
ds (4.41)
A
x
= E
x
(v
T−x
) =
_

0
v
s
µ(x +s)
s
p
x
ds (4.42)
A
1
x:n
= E
x
_
v
T−x
I
{T−x≤n}
_
=
_
n
0
v
s
µ(x +s)
s
p
x
ds (4.43)
Next, we obtain two additional formulas, for continuous life annuities-due
a
x
and a
x:n
which correspond to E
x
{g(T)} for the two choices
g(t) =
_
ω−x
0
v
y
I
{y+x≤t}
dy or
_
n
0
v
y
I
{y+x≤t}
dy
where we naturally assume that x+n ≤ ω in the case of the temporary life
annuity.
4.5. CONTINUOUS RISK PREMIUM FORMULAS 135
After switching the order of the integrals and the conditional expecta-
tions, and evaluating the conditional expectation of an indicator as a condi-
tional probability, in the form
E
x
_
I
{y≤T−x}
_
= P(T ≥ x +s | T ≥ x) =
S(x +y)
S(x)
=
y
p
x
the resulting two equations become
a
x
= E
x
__
ω−x
0
v
y
I
{y≤T−x}
dt
_
=
_
ω−x
0
v
y
y
p
x
dy (4.44)
a
x:n
= E
x
__
n
0
v
y
I
{y≤T−x}
dy
_
=
_
n
0
v
y
y
p
x
dy (4.45)
As seen above in (4.39), risk premiums for continuous insurance and an-
nuity contracts have a close relationship to the corresponding contracts with
m payment periods per year for large m. That is, the term insurance net
single premiums
A
(m)1
x:n
= E
x
_
v
Tm−x+1/m
_
approach the continuous insurance value (4.42) as a limit when m → ∞.
A simple direct proof can be given because the payments at the end of the
fraction 1/m of year of death are at most 1/m years later than the
continuous-insurance payment at the instant of death, so that the following
obvious inequalities hold:
A
1
x:n
≤ A
(m)1
x:n
≤ v
1/m
A
1
x:n
(4.46)
Since the right-hand term in the inequality (4.46) also converges for large m
to the leftmost term, the middle term which is sandwiched in between must
converge to the same limit (4.43).
For the continuous annuity, (4.45) can be obtained as a limit of formulas
(4.19) either from (4.39) or by using Riemann sums, as the number m of
payments per year goes to ∞, i.e.,
a
x:n
= lim
m→∞
¨ a
(m)
x:n
= lim
m→∞
nm−1

k=0
1
m
v
k/m
k/m
p
x
=
_
n
0
v
t
t
p
x
ds
The final formula coincides with (4.45), according with the intuition that the
limit as m →∞ of the payment-stream which pays 1/m at intervals of time
136 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
1/m between 0 and T
m
− x inclusive is the continuous payment-stream
which pays 1 per unit time throughout the policy-age interval [0, T −x).
The limiting argument of the previous paragraph shows immediately that
under interpolation assumption (i), there are simple formulas relating
¯
A
x:n
and ¯ a
x:n
to A
1
x:n
. Indeed, by (4.35), under (i)
¯
A
x:n
= lim
m→∞
A
(m)1
x:n
= lim
m
i
i
(m)
A
1
x:n
=
i
δ
A
1
x:n
(4.47)
and by (4.38), also under (i),
¯ a
x:n
= lim
m→∞
¨ a
(m)
x:n
= lim
m
1
d
(m)
_
1 −
i
i
(m)
A
1
x:n
− v
n
n
p
x
_
or
¯ a
x:n
=
1
δ
_
1 −
i
δ
A
1
x:n
− v
n
n
p
x
_
(4.48)
Finally, it is easy to see by passing to the limit m →∞ in (4.28) that
δ ¯ a
x:n
+
¯
A
x:n
= 1 (4.49)
More elaborate relations will be given in the next Chapter between net
single premiumformulas which do require interpolation-assumptions for prob-
abilities of survival to times between integer ages to formulas for m = 1,
which do not require such interpolation.
The expressions in formulas (4.41), (4.43), and (4.45) can be contrasted
with the respective expectations (3.12), (4.17) and (4.19) for a function of
the integer-valued random variable [T] (taking m = 1). In particular,
the complete life expectancy ˚e
x
in (4.41) is compared to the curtate life
expectancy e
x
under interplation assumption (i) in (3.28). The comparison
between complete and curtate life expectancies under more general within-
year survival distributions in subsection 4.5.4 below.
4.5.3 Risk Premiums under Theoretical Models
Let us work out examples of the multiple time-period per year and continuous
formulas analytically and numerically, under a particular theoretical survival
model.
4.5. CONTINUOUS RISK PREMIUM FORMULAS 137
Consider first the slightly artificial (but still useful) case where the
residual life T −x for a life aged x is precisely Weibull(γ, λ) distributed,
with force of mortality for T given by µ(x +s) = λγ s
γ−1
, and
s
p
x
= e
−λs
γ
for all s ≥ 0 , q
x+k
= 1 −exp(−λ{(k + 1)
γ
−k
γ
})
Then respectively according to formulas (4.17), (4.23), and (4.42), we find
formulas for term-insurance finite-m net single premiums under Weibull
survival as follows:
A
1
x:n
=
n−1

k=0
v
k+1
(e
−λk
γ
−e
−λ(k+1)
γ
)
A
(m)1
x:n
=
n−1

k=0
v
k+1/m
m−1

j=0
v
j/m
(e
−λ(k+j/m)
γ
− e
−λ(k+(j+1)/m)
γ
)
According to formulas (4.19), (4.24), and (4.44), the special Weibull-lifetime
temporary life annuity-due risk premiums for finite m are:
¨a
x:n
=
n−1

k=0
v
k
e
−λk
γ
, ¨ a
(m)
x:n
=
n−1

k=0
m−1

j=0
v
k+j/m
e
−λ(k+j/m)
γ
The continuous cases (m = ∞) of these formulas are as follows:
¯
A
1
x:n
=
_
n
0
v
s
λγ s
γ−1
e
−λs
γ
ds , ¯ a
x:n
=
_
n
0
v
s
e
−λs
γ
ds
Finally, according to formulas (3.11) and (4.41) the curtate and complete
life expectancies at integer ages y ≥ x for Weibull (residual) lifetimes are:
e
x
=

k=0
k (e
−λk
γ
−e
−λ(k+1)
γ
) , ˚e
x
=
_

0
s λγ s
γ−1
e
λs
γ
ds
We next give R code and a table showing some numerical comparisons of
these insurance and life-annuity risk premiums, for m = 1, 4, ∞. First, we
give an R function for Weibull-lifetime term insurance risk premiums:
138 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
> WeibIns = function(lambda, gamma, m, n, i) {
## Function to calculate term-n insurance risk prem
### for 1 paymt per year, m paymts, and continuous ins
v = 1/(1+i)
xk = 0:(n-1)
Ins1 = v*sum( v^xk*(exp(-lambda*xk^gamma)-
exp(-lambda*(xk+1)^gamma)) )
xkjm = (0:(n*m-1))/m
Insm = v^(1/m)* sum( v^xkjm*(exp(-lambda*xkjm^gamma) -
exp(-lambda*(xkjm+1/m)^gamma)) )
InsC = lambda*gamma*integrate(function(s,.v,.lam,.gam)
.v^s*s^(.gam-1)*exp(-.lam*s^(.gam)),0, n,
.v=v, .lam=lambda, .gam=gamma)$val
c(termIns.1 = Ins1, termIns.m = Insm, termIns.cont = InsC)
}
To illustrate the use of this function, we create a small Table of values
for a few different values of n, with parameters (λ, γ) similar to those
used in Chapter 2, but chosen successively so that (a)
32
p
40
= .5/.925 =
.5405,
50
p
40
= .04/.925 = .04324 as in Figure 2.5, (b)
32
p
40
= .6,
50
p
40
=
.047, or (c)
32
p
40
= .65,
50
p
40
= .05. In each case, the nominal age x is
40, in the R code to produce this Table, we begin by coding a function to
solve for λ, γ) when π
1
=
32
p
40
, π
2
=
50
p
40
are given. The interest rates
considered here are 0.05 or 0.06, and n = 20.
> LamGam = function(pi1,pi2, age1, age2) {
### Function to solve for lambda and gamma Weibull
### parameters, when S(age1)=pi1, S(age2)=pi2 are fixed.
haz1 = -log(pi1) ; haz2 = -log(pi2)
gam = log(haz2/haz1)/log(age2/age1)
lam = haz1/age1^gam
c(lambda=lam, gamma=gam) }
> LamGam(.5/.925,.04/.925,32,50)
lambda gamma
1.952e-06 3.653e+00
4.5. CONTINUOUS RISK PREMIUM FORMULAS 139
> WeibIns(1.952e-6,3.653,4,20,.05)
termIns.1 termIns.m termIns.cont
0.04844 0.04930 0.04960
> InsArr = array(0, dim=c(6,6), dimnames=list(NULL, c("lambda",
"gamma", "i", "Ins.1", "Ins.m", "Ins.C")))
intrat = c(.05, .06)
sprobs = rbind(c(.5/.925,.04/.925),c(.6,.047),c(.65,.05))
for(a in 1:2) for (b in 1:3) {
k = 2*(b-1)+a
> lamgam=LamGam(sprobs[b,1],sprobs[b,2],32,50)
InsArr[k,] = c(lamgam[1],lamgam[2],intrat[a],
WeibIns(lamgam[1],lamgam[2],4,20,intrat[a])) }
InsArr
lambda gamma i Ins.1 Ins.m Ins.C
[1,] 1.952e-06 3.653 0.05 0.04846 0.04932 0.04962
[2,] 1.952e-06 3.653 0.06 0.04189 0.04278 0.04309
[3,] 4.715e-07 4.009 0.05 0.03396 0.03457 0.03478
[4,] 4.715e-07 4.009 0.06 0.02924 0.02986 0.03008
[5,] 1.241e-07 4.345 0.05 0.02436 0.02479 0.02494
[6,] 1.241e-07 4.345 0.06 0.02091 0.02135 0.02151
The variations among the parameters and interest rates make much more
difference to the results than does the number m of payment periods per
year. Note that the overall size of the risk premium for a unit 20-year term
insurance is reasonable, because the probability it will pay anything at all is
20
q
40
, which (for odd-numbered rows) takes the three values
> 1-exp(-AnnuArr[c(1,3,5),1]*20^AnnuArr[c(1,3,5),2])
[1] 0.10461 0.07467 0.05435
A similar Table of risk premiums for temporary life annuities-due, with
exactly the same parameters, is given below along with the R code for the
life-annuity function calculation.
140 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
> WeibAnnD = function(lambda, gamma, m, n, i) {
## Function to calculate term-n insurance risk prem
### for 1 paymt per year, m paymts, and continuous ins
v = 1/(1+i)
xk = 0:(n-1)
Annu1 = sum( v^xk*exp(-lambda*xk^gamma) )
xkjm = (0:(n*m-1))/m
Annum = sum( v^xkjm*exp(-lambda*xkjm^gamma) )/m
AnnuC = integrate(function(s,.v,.lam,.gam)
.v^s*exp(-.lam*s^(.gam)),0, n,
.v=v, .lam=lambda, .gam=gamma)$val
c(tmpAnn.1 = Annu1, tmpAnn.m = Annum, tmpAnn.cont = AnnuC)
}
> AnnuArr = InsArr
dimnames(AnnuArr)[[2]][4:6]=c("Annu.1","Annu.m","Annu.C")
for(a in 1:2) for (b in 1:3) {
k = 2*(b-1)+a
lamgam=LamGam(sprobs[b,1],sprobs[b,2],32,50)
AnnuArr[k,4:6] = WeibAnnD(lamgam[1],lamgam[2],4,20,intrat[a]) }
AnnuArr
lambda gamma i Annu.1 Annu.m Annu.C
[1,] 1.952e-06 3.653 0.05 12.90 12.65 12.56
[2,] 1.952e-06 3.653 0.06 11.99 11.72 11.63
[3,] 4.715e-07 4.009 0.05 12.96 12.72 12.64
[4,] 4.715e-07 4.009 0.06 12.05 11.78 11.69
[5,] 1.241e-07 4.345 0.05 13.00 12.76 12.68
[6,] 1.241e-07 4.345 0.06 12.09 11.82 11.73
Life expectancy calculations and comparisons are done in the next sub-
section, for Gompertz survival. Examples of formula development for other
special parametric distributional families are contained in the Exercises.
4.5.4 Numerical Calculations of Life Expectancies
Formulas (4.41) or (3.12) respectively provide the complete and curtate age-
specific life expectancies, in terms respectively of survival densities and life-
4.5. CONTINUOUS RISK PREMIUM FORMULAS 141
table data. Formula (3.28) provides the actuarial approximation for com-
plete life expectancy in terms of life-table data, based upon interpolation-
assumption (i) (Uniform mortality within year of age). In this Section, we
illustrate these formulas using the Illustrative simulated and extrapolated
life-table data of Table 1.1.
Life expectancy formulas necessarily involve life table data and/or sur-
vival distributions specified out to arbitrarily large ages. While life tables
may be based on large cohorts of insured for ages up to the seventies and even
eighties, beyond that they will be very sparse and very dependent on the par-
ticular small group(s) of aged individuals used in constructing the particular
table(s). On the other hand, the fraction of the cohort at moderate ages who
will survive past 90, say, is extremely small, so a reasonable extrapolation
of a well-established table out to age 105 or so may give sufficiently accu-
rate life-expectancy values at ages not exceeding 105. Life expectancies are
in any case forecasts based upon an implicit assumption of future mortality
following exactly the same pattern as recent past mortality. Life-expectancy
calculations necessarily ignore likely changes in living conditions and medi-
cal technology which many who are currently alive will experience. Thus an
assertion of great accuracy for a particular method of calculation would be
misplaced.
All of the numerical life-expectancy calculations produced for the Figure
of this Section are based on the extrapolation (2.10) of the illustrative life
table data from Table 1.1. According to that extrapolation, death-rates q
x
for all ages 78 and greater are taken to grow exponentially, with log(q
x
/q
78
) =
(x − 78) ln(1.0885). This exponential behavior is approximately but not
precisely compatible with a Gompertz-form force-of-mortality function
µ(78 +t) = µ(78) c
t
in light of the approximate equality µ(x) ≈ q
x
, an approximation which
progressively becomes less valid as the force of mortality gets larger. To see
this, note that under a Gompertz survival model,
µ(x) = Bc
x
, q
x
= 1 −exp
_
−Bc
x
c −1
lnc
_
and with c = 1.0885 in our setting, (c −1)/ ln c = 1.0436.
142 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
Since curtate life expectancy (3.12) relies directly on (extrapolated) life-
table data, its calculation is simplest and most easily interpreted. Figure 4.1
presents, as plotted points, the age-specific curtate life expectancies for in-
teger ages x = 0, 1, . . . , 78. Since the complete life expectancy at each age
is larger than the curtate by exactly 1/2 under interpolation assumption
(i), we calculated for comparison the complete life expectancy at all (real-
number) ages, under assumption (ii) (from Chapter 3, as in equation 3.16)
of piecewise-constant force of mortality within years of age. Under this as-
sumption, by formula (3.24), mortality within year of age (0 < t < 1) is
t
p
x+k
= (p
x+k
)
t
, and force of mortality is
µ(x +k +t) = −
d
dt
ln
t
p
x+k
= −ln p
x+k
Using formulas (4.41), (3.12), and interpolation assumption (ii), the exact
formula for the difference between complete and curtate life expectancy be-
comes
˚e
x
− e
x
=
ω−x−1

k=0
k
p
x
_
_
k+1
k
s µ(x +s)
s−k
p
x+k
ds − k q
x+k
_
=
ω−x−1

k=0
k
p
x
_
(−ln p
x+k
)
_
1
0
(k +t) e
t lnp
x+k
dt − k q
x+k
_
=
ω−x−1

k=0
k
p
x
_
(−ln p
x+k
)
_
(k + 1)p
x+k
−k
lnp
x+k

p
x+k
−1
(lnp
x+k
)
2
_
− k q
x+k
_
=
ω−x−1

k=0
k
p
x
_
−p
x+k

q
x+k
lnp
x+k
_
(4.50)
The complete minus curtate life expectancies calculated from this formula
were found range from 0.493 at ages 40 and below, down to 0.485 at age
78 and 0.348 at age 99. (Contrast this result with the constant difference
of 1/2 under assumption (i).) Thus there is essentially no new information
in the calculated complete life expectancies, and they are not plotted.
The aspect of Figure 4.1 which is most startling to the intuition is the
large expected numbers of additional birthdays for individuals of advanced
ages. Moreover, the large life expectancies shown are comparable to actual
US male mortality circa 1959, so would be still larger today.
4.5. CONTINUOUS RISK PREMIUM FORMULAS 143















































































Expected number of additional whole years of life, by age
Age in years
C
u
r
t
a
t
e

L
i
f
e

E
x
p
e
c
t
a
n
c
y
0 20 40 60 80
1
0
2
0
3
0
4
0
5
0
6
0
7
0
Figure 4.1: Curtate life expectancy e
x
as a function of age, calculated
from the simulated illustrative life table data of Table 1.1, with age-specific
death-rates q
x
extrapolated as indicated in formula (2.10).
144 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
4.6 Exercise Set 4
(1). For each of the following three lifetime distributions, find (a) the
expected remaining lifetime for an individual aged 20, and (b)
7/12
q
40
/q
40
.
(i) Weibull(.00634, 1.2), with S(t) = exp(−0.00634 t
1.2
),
(ii) Lognormal(log(50), 0.325
2
), with S(t) = 1−Φ((log(t)−log(50))/0.325),
(iii) Piecewise exponential with force of mortality given the constant value
µ
t
= 0.015 for 20 < t ≤ 50, and µ
t
= 0.03 for t ≥ 50. In these
integrals, you should be prepared to use integrations by parts, gamma function
values, tables of the normal distribution function Φ(x), and/or numerical
integrations via calculators or software.
(2). (a) Find the expected present value, with respect to the constant
effective interest rate r = 0.07, of an insurance payment of $1000 to be
made at the instant of death of an individual who has just turned 40 and
whose remaining lifetime T −40 = S is a continuous random variable with
density f(s) = 0.05 e
−0.05s
, s > 0.
(b) Find the expected present value of the insurance payment in (a) if
the insurer is allowed to delay the payment to the end of the year in which
the individual dies. Should this answer be larger or smaller than the answer
in (a) ?
(3). If the individual in Problem 2 pays a life insurance premium P at
the beginning of each remaining year of his life (including this one), then
what is the expected total present value of all the premiums he pays before
his death ?
(4). Suppose that an individual has equal probability of dying within each
of the next 40 years, and is certain to die within this time, i.e., his age is x
and
k
p
x

k+1
p
x
= 0.025 for k = 0, 1, . . . , 39
Assume the fixed interest rate r = 0.06.
(a) Find the net single whole-life insurance premium A
x
for this person.
(b) Find the net single premium for the term and endowment insurances
A
1
x:20
and A
x:30
.
4.6. EXERCISE SET 4 145
(5). Show that the expected whole number of years of remaining life for a
life aged x is given by
c
x
= E([T] −x | T ≥ x) =
ω−x−1

k=0
k
k
p
x
q
x+k
and prove that this quantity as a function of integer age x satisfies the
recursion equation
c
x
= p
x
(1 + c
x+1
)
(6). Show that the expected present value b
x
of an insurance of 1 payable
at the beginning of the year of death (or equivalently, payable at the end of
the year of death along with interest from the beginning of that same year)
satisfies the recursion relation (4.51) above.
(7). Prove the identity (4.16) algebraically.
For the next two problems, consider a cohort life-table population for
which you know only that l
70
= 10, 000, l
75
= 7000, l
80
= 3000, l
85
= 0, and
that the distribution of death-times within 5-year age intervals is uniform.
(8). Find (a) ˚e
75
and (b) the probability of an individual aged 70 in
this life-table population dying between ages 72.0 and 78.0.
(9). Find the probability of an individual aged 72 in this life-table popula-
tion dying between ages 75.0 and 83.0, if the assumption of uniform death-
times within 5-year intervals is replaced by:
(a) a constant force of mortality within 5-year age-intervals;
(b) assuming linearity of 1/S(t)) within 5-year age intervals.
(10). Suppose that a population has survival probabilities governed at all
ages by the force of mortality
µ
t
=
_
¸
¸
¸
¸
_
¸
¸
¸
¸
_
.01 for 0 ≤ t < 1
.002 for 1 ≤ t < 5
.001 for 5 ≤ t < 20
.004 for 20 ≤ t < 40
.0001 · t for 40 ≤ t
Then (a) find
30
p
10
, and (b) find ˚e
50
.
146 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
(11). Suppose that a population has survival probabilities governed at all
ages by the force of mortality
µ
t
=
_
_
_
.01 for 0 ≤ t < 10
.1 for 10 ≤ t < 30
3/t for 30 ≤ t
Then (a) find
30
p
20
= the probability that an individual aged 20 survives
for at least 30 more years, and (b) find ˚e
30
.
(12). Assuming the same force of mortality as in the previous problem, find
˚e
70
and A
60
if i = 0.09.
(13). The force of mortality for impaired lives is three times the standard
force of mortality at all ages. The standard rates q
x
of mortality at ages 95,
96, and 97 are respectively 0.3, 0.4, and 0.5 . What is the probability that
an impaired life age 95 will live to age 98 ?
(14). You are given a survival function S(x) = (10−x)
2
/100 , 0 ≤ x ≤ 10.
(a) Calculate the average number of future years of life for an individual
who survives to age 1.
(b) Calculate the difference between the force of mortality at age 1, and
the probability that a life aged 1 dies before age 2.
(15). An n-year term life insurance policy to a life aged x provides
that if the insured dies within the n-year period an annuity-certain of yearly
payments of 10 will be paid to the beneficiary, with the first annuity payment
made on the policy-anniversary following death, and the last payment made
on the N
th
policy anniversary. Here 1 < n ≤ N are fixed integers. If
B(x, n, N) denotes the net single premium (= expected present value) for
this policy, and if mortality follows the law l
x
= C(ω − x)/ω for some
terminal integer age ω and constant C, then find a simplified expression
for B(x, n, N) in terms of interest-rate functions, ω, and the integers
x, n, N. Assume x +n ≤ ω.
(16). The father of a newborn child purchases an endowment and insurance
contract with the following combination of benefits. The child is to receive
$100, 000 for college at her 18
th
birthday if she lives that long and $500, 000
at her 60
th
birthday if she lives that long, and the father as beneficiary is
to receive $200, 000 at the end of the year of the child’s death if the child
4.6. EXERCISE SET 4 147
dies before age 18. Find expressions, both in actuarial notations and in
terms of v = 1/(1 + i) and of the survival probabilities
k
p
0
for the child,
for the net single premium for this contract.
(17). Verify algebraically, using (4.37) together with (4.11), that the right-
hand sides of formulas (4.36) and (4.38) are equal.
For the next four problems, concerning insurance contract risk premiums
in a variable interest rate environment, apply formula (4.33).
(18). Suppose that a life aged x wants to purchase a 20-year term insurance
now, and that interest rates over the next twenty years will be i = .05 for
policy ages in (0, 10] and i = .06 for policy ages in (10, 20]. Find the net
single premium for a unit term insurance (i.e., if the insurance payment is 1)
if survival is governed by the Weibull(2 · 10
−6
, 4) distribution for T−x. (You
may use the formulas and R code of section 4.5.3 to aid in the calculation.)
(19). Pass to the limit m →∞ in formula (4.33) to derive an analogous
formula for the net single premium, in a variable interest rate environment
with instantaneous force of interest δ(t) at policy time t, of a contract
for a life aged x paying a continuous-time stream at rate G at all policy
times t < min(T −x, n) and paying a lump-sum amount F at the instant
of death if death occurs before age x +n.
(20). Suppose that a life aged x wants to purchase a 10-year term insurance
or temporary annuity-due, and that interest rates over the next ten years will
be i = .07 for policy ages in (0, 6] and i = .04 for policy ages in (6, 10].
Show that the net single premium for a unit 10-year term insurance or a
unit temporary life annuity-due, with one payment period per year (i.e.,
m = 1) depends on the survival distribution only through the cohort life
table quantities
k
p
x
for integers k = 1, 2, . . . , 10.
(21). Suppose that a life aged x wants to purchase a 10-year term in-
surance, and that it is believed that interest rates will vary over the 10-year
interval according to the rule δ(t) = δ · (1 + 0.002 t). Show that the net
single premium for a unit 10-year term insurance depends on the continuous
conditional survival probabilities
t
p
x
, 0 ≤ t ≤ 10 and not only on the values
for integer t.
148 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
4.7 Worked Examples
Example 1. Toy Life-Table (assuming uniform failures)
Consider the following life-table with only six equally-spaced ages. (That
is, assume l
6
= 0.) Assume that the rate of interest i = .09, so that
v = 1/(1 +i) = 0.9174 and (1 −e
−δ
)/δ = (1 −v)/δ = 0.9582.
x Age-range l
x
d
x
e
x
A
x
0 [0, 1) 1000 60 4.2 0.704
1 [1, 2) 940 80 3.436 0.749
2 [2, 3) 860 100 2.709 0.795
3 [3, 4) 760 120 2.0 0.844
4 [4, 5) 640 140 1.281 0.896
5 [5, 6) 500 500 0.5 0.958
Using the data in this Table, and interest rate i = .09, we begin by cal-
culating the expected present values for simple contracts for term insurance,
annuity, and endowment. First, for a life aged 0, a 3-year term insurance
with payoff amount $1000 has present value given by formula (4.17) as
1000 A
1
0:3
= 1000
_
0.917
60
1000
+ (0.917)
2
80
1000
+ (0.917)
3
100
1000
_
= 199.60
Second, for a life aged 2, a 3-year temporary annuity-due of $700 per year
(with last payment at age 4) has present value computed from (4.19) to be
700 ¨ a
2:3
= 700
_
1 + 0.917
760
860
+ (0.917)
2
640
860
_
= 1705.98
For the same life aged 2, the 3-year Endowment for $700 has present value
700 A
1
2:3
= 700 · (0.9174)
3
500
860
= 314.26
Thus we can also calculate (for the life aged 2) the present value of the
3-year annuity-immediate of $700 per year as
700 ·
_
¨a
2:3
− 1 + A
1
0:3
_
= 1705.98 −700 + 314.26 = 1320.24
4.7. WORKED EXAMPLES 149
We next apply and interpret the formulas of Section 4.5.1, together with
the observation that
j
p
x
· q
x+j
=
l
x+j
l
x
·
d
x+j
l
x+j
=
d
x+j
l
x
to show how the last two columns of the Table were computed. In particular,
by (4.41)
e
2
=
100
860
· 0 +
120
860
· 1 +
140
860
· 2 +
500
860
· 3 +
1
2
=
1900
860
+ 0.5 = 2.709
Moreover: observe that c
x
=

5−x
k=0
k
k
p
x
q
x+k
satisfies the “recursion equa-
tion” c
x
= p
x
(1 +c
x+1
) (cf. Exercise 5 above), with c
5
= 0, from which
the e
x
column is easily computed by: e
x
= c
x
+ 0.5.
Now apply the present value formula for continuous insurance to find
A
x
=
5−x

k=0
k
p
x
q
x+k
v
k
1 −e
−δ
δ
= 0.9582
5−x

k=0
k
p
x
q
x
v
k
= 0.9582 b
x
where b
x
is the expected present value of an insurance of 1 payable at the
beginning of the year of death (so that A
x
= v b
x
) and satisfies b
5
= 1
together with the recursion-relation
b
x
=
5−x

k=0
k
p
x
q
x+k
v
k
= p
x
v b
x+1
+ q
x
(4.51)
(Proof of this recursion is Exercise 6 above.)
Example 2. Find a simplified expression in terms of actuarial expected
present value notations for the net single premium of an insurance on a
life aged x, which pays F(k) = C ¨ a
n−k
if death occurs at any exact ages
between x + k and x + k + 1, for k = 0, 1, . . . , n − 1, and interpret the
result.
Let us begin with the interpretation: the beneficiary receives at the end
of the year of death a lump-sum equal in present value to a payment stream
of C annually beginning at the end of the year of death and terminating at
the end of the n
th
policy year. This payment stream, if superposed upon
150 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
an n-year life annuity-immediate with annual payments C, would result in
a certain payment of C at the end of policy years 1, 2, . . . , n. Thus the
expected present value in this example is given by
C a
n
− C a
x:n
(4.52)
Next we re-work this example purely in terms of analytical formulas. By
formula (4.52), the net single premium in the example is equal to
n−1

k=0
v
k+1
k
p
x
q
x+k
C ¨a
n−k+1
= C
n−1

k=0
v
k+1
k
p
x
q
x+k
1 −v
n−k
d
=
C
d
_
n−1

k=0
v
k+1
k
p
x
q
x+k
− v
n+1
n−1

k=0
(
k
p
x

k+1
p
x
)
_
=
C
d
_
A
1
x:n
− v
n+1
(1 −
n
p
x
)
_
=
C
d
_
A
x:n
− v
n
n
p
x
− v
n+1
(1 −
n
p
x
)
_
and finally, by substituting expression (4.15) with m = 1 for A
x:n
, we
have
C
d
_
1 − d ¨ a
x:n
− (1 −v) v
n
n
p
x
− v
n+1
_
=
C
d
_
1 − d (1 +a
x:n
− v
n
n
p
x
) − d v
n
n
p
x
− v
n+1
_
=
C
d
_
v − d a
x:n
− v
n+1
_
= C
_
1 −v
n
i
− a
x:n
_
= C {a
n
− a
x:n
}
So the analytically derived answer agrees with the one intuitively arrived at
in formula (4.52).
Example 3. Consider the following cohort life table fragment applicable to
lives aged from 30 to 36. Find the risk premiums for unit-face-amount 6-year
duration annuity-due and term insurance, (a) with m=1, (b) with m = 4
and uniform failure density within year of failure, and (c) with m = 4 and
respective failure probabilities .2, .2, .3, .3 of dying within the 4 quarter-years
given the year of failure. Assume interest rate 5% throughout.
4.7. WORKED EXAMPLES 151
x Age-range l
x
d
x
30 [30, 31) 95000 165
31 [31, 32) 94835 150
32 [32, 33) 94685 155
33 [33, 34) 94530 158
34 [34, 35) 94472 172
35 [35, 36) 94300 187
To clarify the different calculations in the three parts (a)-(c), we provide
R code as well as numerical answers. Parts (a) and (b) respectively make use
of formulas (4.17), (4.19) and (4.35) plus (4.36).
> probmass = c(165,150,155,158,172,187)/95000
> kpx = 1-cumsum(c(0,probmass[1:5]))
> probmass
[1] 0.001737 0.001579 0.001632 0.001663 0.001811 0.001968
> kpx
[1] 1.0000 0.9983 0.9967 0.9951 0.9934 0.9916
> Ains = sum( 1.05^(-(1:6)) * probmass )
AnnDue = sum( 1.05^(-(0:5)) * kpx )
c(Ains=Ains, AnnDue=AnnDue)
Ains AnnDue
0.008751 5.308505 ### answer to (a)
> i4 = 4*(1.05^.25-1)
aux1 = sum(1.05^(-(0:3)/4))/4
aux2 = sum((0:3)*1.05^(-(0:3)/4))/4^2
c(Ains.m = Ains*i4/.05,
AnnDue.m = aux1*AnnDue - 1.05*aux2*Ains)
Ains.m AnnDue.m
0.008592 5.209397 ### answer to (b)
For part (c), we start from formulas (4.23) and (4.24) and calculate by de-
composing sums as we did in Section 4.4,
A
(m)1
x:n
=
n−1

b=0
b
p
x
m−1

j=0
v
b+(j+1)/m
(
(j+1)/m
q
x+b

j/m
q
x+b
)
152 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
¨a
(m)
x:n
=
n−1

b=0
b
p
x
1
m
m−1

j=0
v
b+j/m
(1 −
j/m
q
x+b
)
Now for m = 4, we have in this problem the special assumption that for
integers b and 0 ≤ j < 4,
(
j/4
q
x+b

(j+1)/4
q
x+b
)/q
x+b
=
_
0.2 if j = 0, 1
0.3 if j = 2, 3
It follows that
j/4
q
x+b
/ q
x+b
has respective values 0, 0.2, 0.4, 0.7 for j =
0, 1, 2, 3. Substituting, we find
A
(4)1
x:n
=
n−1

b=0
b
p
x
q
x+b
v
b+1
(1 +i)
_
0.2 v
1/4
+ 0.2 v
1/2
+ 0.3 v
3/4
+ 0.3 v
_
= A
1
x:n
·
_
0.2 v
1/4
+ +0.2 v
1/2
+ 0.3 v
3/4
+ 0.3 v
_
(1 +i)
and
¨ a
(4)
x:n
=
1
4
n−1

b=0
b
p
x
v
b
_
1 − v q
x+b
(0.2 v
−3/4
+ 0.4 v
−1/2
+ 0.7 v
−1/4
)
_
= ¨ a
x:n

1
4
A
1
x:n
_
0.2 v
−3/4
+ 0.4 v
−1/2
+ 0.7 v
−1/4
_
The numerics in R for part (c) now follow:
> aux3 = .2*(1.05^.75+1.05^.5)+.3*(1.05^.25 + 1)
aux4 = .2*1.05^.75+.4*1.05^.5+.7*1.05^.25
c(Ains.ptc = Ains*aux3, AnnDue.ptc = AnnDue - 0.25*Ains*aux4
Ains.ptc AnnDue.ptc
0.008892 5.305604
So the different within-year distribution of failures made roughly a 2% dif-
ference in the term insurance and temporary life annuity-due risk premiums.
4.7. WORKED EXAMPLES 153
Example 4. Find the risk premiums for a 24-year life annuity-due and insur-
ance figured with m = 1 and m = 4 based on the probability densities, with
parameters as given in Figure 2.5 in Chapter 2, (a) Gamma(14.74, .4383),
and (b) Lognormal(3.491, (.246)
2
).
Here the ideas and formulas are simple: the only issue is how to organize
the numerical calculations. The Gamma distribution function can be directly
called in R, while the Lognormal distribution function values are simply ex-
pressed in terms of the normal distribution function. In neither case need we
perform numerical integrations.
kpx1 = 1-pgamma(0:24, rate=.4383, shape=14.74)
kpx2 = 1-pnorm(log(0:24),mean=3.491, sd =.246)
array(c(sum(-diff(kpx1)/1.05^(1:24)),
sum(-diff(kpx2)/1.05^(1:24)),
sum(kpx1[1:24]/1.05^(0:23)),
sum(kpx2[1:24]/1.05^(0:23)),
kpx1[12], kpx2[12], kpx1[24], kpx2[24]), dim=c(2,4),
dimnames=list(c("Gamma","Lognormal"),
c("Ains","AnnDue","P(T-x>12)","P(T-x>24)")))
Ains AnnDue P(T-x>12) P(T-x>24)
Gamma 0.04558 14.36 0.9998 0.9001
Lognormal 0.03504 14.41 1.0000 0.9258
The large relative difference between the term-insurance risk premiums is
due to the more rapid decrease of the Gamma versus the Lognormal survival
function between 12 and 24 years, which can be seen also in Figure 2.5.
154 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
4.8 Useful Formulas from Chapter 4
T
m
= [Tm]/m = x +
k
m
if x +
k
m
≤ T < x +
k + 1
m
p. 117
P(T
m
= x +
k
m
| T ≥ x) =
k/m
p
x

(k+1)/m
p
x
=
k/m
p
x
·
1/m
q
x+k/m
p. 118
Endowment A
1
x:n
=
n
E
x
= E
x
_
v
n
I
[T−x≥n]
_
= v
n
n
p
x
p. 120
A
x:n
= A
1
x:n
+ A
1
x:n
= A
1
x:n
+
n
E
x
p. 121
¨ a
x:n
= E
x
_
1 −v
min([T−x]+1, n)
d
_
=
1 −A
x:n
d
p. 122
d ¨ a
x:n
+ A
x:n
= 1 p. 122
Term (temporary) life annuity a
x:n
= ¨ a
x:n+1/m
− 1/m
p. 122
A
(m)
x
− A
(m)1
x:n
= v
n
n
p
x
· A
x+n
p. 123
Term Insurance A
1
x:n
= E
x
_
v
[T−x]+1
I
{T<x+n}
_
=
n−1

k=0
v
k+1
k
p
x
q
x+k
p. 124
4.8. USEFUL FORMULAS FROM CHAPTER 4 155
¨ a
x:n
= E
x
_
¨ a
min([T−x]+1,n)
_
=
n−1

k=0
v
k
k
p
x
p. 124
A
x:n
=
n−1

k=0
v
k+1
_
k
p
x

k+1
p
x
_
+ v
n
n
p
x
p. 124
A
1
x:n
= E
x
_
v
Tm−x+1/m
I
{T<x+n}
_
=
nm−1

k=0
v
(k+1)/m
k/m
p
x 1/m
q
x+k/m
p. 126
A
(m)
x:n
= A
(m)1
x:n
+ A
(m) 1
x:n
= A
(m)1
x:n
+
n
E
x
p. 127
A
(m)
x:n
=
nm−1

k=0
v
(k+1)/m
_
k/m
p
x

(k+1)/m
p
x
_
+ v
n
n
p
x
p. 127
¨a
(m)
x:n
= E
x
_
1 −v
min(Tm−x+1/m, n)
d
(m)
_
=
1 −A
(m)
x:n
d
(m)
p. 127
d
(m)
¨ a
(m)
x:n
+ A
(m)
x:n
= 1
p. 127
a
(m)
x:n
= ¨ a
(m)
x:n+1/m
− 1/m
p. 128
156 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
under (i): A
(m)1
x:n
= (i/i
(m)
)
n−1

b=0
v
b+1
b
p
x
q
x+b
= (i/i
(m)
) A
1
x:n
p. 131
under (i): ¨ a
(m)
x:n
=
1
d
(m)
_
1 −
i
i
(m)
A
1
x:n
− v
n
n
p
x
_
p. 131
˚e
x
= E
x
(T −x) =
_

0
s µ(x +s)
s
p
x
ds
p. 134
A
1
x:n
= E
x
_
v
T−x
I
{T−x≤n}
_
=
_
n
0
v
s
µ(x +s)
s
p
x
ds
p. 134
a
x:n
= E
x
__
n
0
v
y
I
{y≤T−x}
dy
_
=
_
n
0
v
y
y
p
x
dy
p. 135
δ ¯ a
x:n
+
¯
A
x:n
= 1
p. 136
under (ii): ˚e
x
− e
x
=
ω−x−1

k=0
k
p
x
_
−p
x+k

q
x+k
lnp
x+k
_
p. 142
Appendix A
Duration Data Structures
In this Chapter, we introduce some of the features of real data structures
embodying waiting-time or duration data. Such data arise in a wide variety
of disciplines and applied fields, including:
• Life Insurance, where payments are made and received as contractually
determined functions of the duration of an insured individual’s lifetime;
• Casualty Insurance, where the durations of interest are the times until
accident, health emergency, or other adverse occurrence resulting in
liability or loss;
• Other Insurance, such as mortgage insurance relating to the waiting
time until a specified emergency resulting in
• Clinical Trials and other Biomedical studies, where human lives meet-
ing specific criteria are followed between some initiating event (such
as diagnosis of a disease or a specific treatment or intervention) and
a response of interest (such as alleviation of symptoms, or death, or
tumor recurrence or return of other disease condition);
• Epidemiology, where larger human populations are followed between
recruitment to a study population
• Reliability, where the object of study is either cumulative time or cu-
mulative operational loading in an engineered system until failure or
specified degradation of performance; and
157
158 APPENDIX A. GENERAL FEATURES OF DURATION DATA
• Economics, where the waiting times of interest are generally times of
transition, such as those for individuals from employment to unem-
ployment or vice versa, for businesses from inception to profitability or
bankruptcy, for economies between macroeconomic events, etc.
All of these examples involve the analysis of ‘lifetime’ or ‘waiting-time’
or ‘duration’ data, consisting of a waiting-time random variable T ob-
served, incompletely, for many individuals of a study population. All of
them also consider probability distributions and expected values for functions
depending on waiting-time random variables, and for many purposes of sta-
tistical anlysis and estimation, reduce the complex data as actually recorded
into the idealized format of the Life Table.
A.1 Concepts and Terminology of Duration
(or Mortality, or Survival) Studies
We next define and discuss some concepts and terminology that will allow us
to identify common versus distinct aspects of duration data in the different
subject areas listed above. We restrict attention in our discussion to stud-
ies and datasets concerning individuals, usually people, being observed over
chronological time intervals from entry into the study until the occurrence of
an event of interest – the study endpoint – or the end of followup – called
a right-censoring time – whichever comes first.
Study Population. In a formal observational setting, the study popula-
tion is defined thorugh qualifying characteristics. For example, one might
recruit into a clinical trial males with the same disease diagnosis at a des-
ignated set of hospital centers, who are between 30 and 60 years of age
and otherwise is good health, and who consent to be randomly assigned to
an experimental versus standard treatment. In an epidemiologic context, the
population might consist of those in certain professions or risky occcupations,
age-intervals, and locations, or who have specified existing medical conditions
(such as high cholesterol) and consent to participate in a study entailing a
number of scheduled medical examinations. In an insurance context, mortal-
ity or time-to-event statistics might be compiled for all individuals insured
by one or a group of companies, over a specified time-window, or the subset
A.1. SURVIVAL DATA CONCEPTS 159
of such people subject to a particular risk – such as ‘cigarette smokers’. In
some insurance tabulations, data are gathered on special high- or low-risk
populations in order to justify premiums different from those paid by the
general population.
Mode of entry. Depending on the purpose for which time-to-event data
are gathered, the initiating event for the interval of length T can have dif-
ferent possible relationships to the chronological time at which an individual
is brought under observation. The simplest case is where these are the same,
or where all individuals in the study are entered simultaneously: this kind of
survival or duration study is called a cohort study. For example, a study
in which babies born in a given year are followed for the next period of (3 or
10 or 20) years would be a cohort study, as would a reliability study in which
100 machines of a given type are set running – possibly under heighted load
or stress – and observed until failure. Another example would be a survival
study in which the interesting duration variable T is ‘time from diagnosis to
death’, and data are to be collected by followup over time on a set of subjects
who receive this diagnosis within a short period, say three months.
More broadly, and with a slightly different meaning, the term “cohort
study” applies to longitudinal data collected on a set of individuals selected
simultaneously at the outset, for example in a survey, and then followed over
time. In that usage, ‘cohort’ and ‘longitudinal’ study are roughly synony-
mous. As used in an actuarial or demographic context, which is the way we
use it in this book, ‘cohort’ refers to a set of individuals who have the same
whole-number age at the same time and whose waiting time until death or
other failure-event is of interest. In this way, one could refer to the ‘cohort’
of US males in the state of New Jersey who were 50 years old in 1977.
On the other hand, most survival studies and insurance portfolios consist
of individuals who at any single chronological time have widely differing
current ages. Whether in clinical trials or Insurance, entry of individuals
into observation occurs by staggered entry, at differing chronological times
chosen by the individual. In demography or epidemiologic studies, large
populations are studied beginning at a specified date, so that all entry times
into the study are simultaneous, but the individuals’ ages at entry vary.
Usually in Insurance and demography and epidemiology, the time variable
of interest is age. Thus, birth is the event initiating the individual’s clock,
160 APPENDIX A. GENERAL FEATURES OF DURATION DATA
but at entry into the data-collection, the individual’s age is recorded. When
the entry age is positive, the individual’s data are said to be left-censored:
the individual could have been observed to experience the study endpoint
only at an age greater than the entry age.
Mode of study termination. Survival and other duration studies are often
conducted over fixed administrative time windows. Subjects enter either
together, in a cohort, or individually, staggered. The study will end and be
reported as of a fixed chronological termination time, so individuals under
study may have a positive age at entry and age of last followup in the study
without ever having experienced the study endpoint. Moreover, in many
studies as in Insurance portfolios, individuals can withdraw from observation
before the study endpoint, for reasons which may or may not be related to
the nearness of that endpoint. For these reasons, data about the individual’s
variable T may be incomplete and are said to be right-censored: within the
dataset, the individual’s T is known only to be greater than or equal to the
last age of followup, which is also called that individual’s right-censoring
time.
Based on the examples and discussion above, we can formulate the follow-
ing general data structure for a duration or survival study. If the individuals
in a study are indexed administratively by i = 1, 2, . . . , N, then each indi-
vidual must come equipped with at least the following information:
E
i
= chronological time of entry of individual i into the study
A
i
= age of individual i at entry into the study
T
i
= age of individual i at last followup or endpoint under the study
D
i
= binary indicator equal to 1 if i experiences endpoint during followup,
and equal to 0 otherwise
In terms of these notations, individual i first enters the study at chrono-
logical time E
i
and is under active observation, or under followup, for
a total duration of T
i
− A
i
. Thus the chronological interval of followup is
[E
i
, E
i
+T
i
−A
i
]. The individual’s earliest age in the study is A
i
, and the
latest is T
i
. If D
i
= 1, the final age T
i
is also the age at which the study
A.1. SURVIVAL DATA CONCEPTS 161
endpoint is observed to occur for individual i, while if D
i
= 0, then individual
i does not experience the study end-point while under followup.
The terminology ‘under followup’ is the one used in clinical or epidemi-
ologic settings. Expressed in terms of age during the followup period, indi-
vidual i would be said to be on test — by adoption of an older terminology
from Reliability — on the age interval [A
i
, T
i
]. The biomedical term would be
that individual i is at risk at ages in the interval (A
i
, T
i
], while the Insurance
term is that the individual is exposed (or ‘exposed to risk’, as might be said
also in an epidemiologic or demographic context) on that age interval.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Artificial Clinical Trial with Staggered Entry
Right−Censoring, and Dropout
Time
P
a
t
i
e
n
t

#
Figure A.1: Representation of entry times (solid diamonds), at-risk inter-
vals (solid line segments), and death (filled circle) or right-censoring (hollow
circle) for each of 9 patients in an artificial clinical trial.
162 APPENDIX A. GENERAL FEATURES OF DURATION DATA
The definitions for right-censored staggered-entry survival data are illus-
trated in Figure A.1, for 9 patients in an artificial clinical trial with stagg-
gered entry. Each patient’s interval at risk is a horizontal line segment be-
ginning just after the entry-time depicted with a solid diamond and ending
at the time indicated with a circle, solid if an observed death and hollow if
a dropout or censoring time. ‘Dropout’ takes place at the hollow circle for
patient 2, while the other censoring events would be called ‘administrative
right-censoring’ because the clinical trial observation periods all end at the
chronological time 10 indicated by a vertical dashed line.
The central idea of the Life Table, described in Section A.2 below, is to
tabulate over equally spaced intervals of age, or time-on-test, the numbers of
study subjects at risk and observed to fail (i.e., to experience the study end-
point while under followup). This idea is fundamental to statistical analysis
of duration data in all of the fields of study listed at the beginning of this
Chapter.
In this Section, we have addressed the most frequently occurring com-
plexities of Insurance and other survival data as actually collected. However,
there are still other complexities, some of which we can mention briefly. Sur-
vival data, or their underlying study populations are often defined through
information collected in sample surveys, in which some demographic groups
are given heavier weight than their proportion in the general population.
The way in which the data should be analyzed depend on survey inclusion
probabilities or weights, and also on what the target sampled population
was, including whether the criteria for inclusion depend on time-dependent
(for example health-related) variables. Two books describing many forms of
biomedical survival data, with examples, are those of Klein and Moeschberger
(2003) and Lee (1992).
A.2 Formal Notion of the Life Table
Consider the artificial clinical trial data summarized in Figure A.1. Such
data might have been collected for the purpose of understanding the rate of
mortality at different ages. The Life Table, or more specifically the cohort
life table, is a simplified representation which summarizes only the numbers
‘at risk’ and the numbers observed to fail and be censored, in the one-year
A.2. FORMAL NOTION OF THE LIFE TABLE 163
age intervals [1, 2), [2, 3), . . . , [9, 10). In the notation of the previous Section,
the patient labelled i is said to be at risk (i.e. could potentially be observed
to die) at time t if A
i
< t ≤ T
i
, and is actually observed to die at T
i
only
if D
i
= 1. If we agree to consider only integer times t = k, then we have
Y
k
= # at risk at age k =

i
I
[A
i
<k≤T
i
]
d
k
= # observed to die in [k, k + 1) =

i
D
i
I
[k≤T
i
<k+1]
c
k
= # right-censored in [k, k + 1) =

i
(1 −D
i
) I
[k≤T
i
<k+1]
However, it is not true that all individuals dying within the age interval
[k, k +1) were necessarily at risk at time k. For this reason, it is important
to tabulate an additional quantity, the total number of subject-years in the
survival study during which subjects were under followup at exact ages in
[k, k + 1):
τ
k
= Time on test at ages in [k, k+1) =

i
(min(T
i
, k+1) −max(k, A
i
))
Clearly, τ
k
is more informative than simply Y
k
as a denominator against
which to compare the observed number of failures d
k
in order to estimate
the rate of failures within the successive age-intervals. Indeed, we will see in
Chapter 8 that a reasonable estimator of the death-rate within age-intervals
k, k + 1) are the ratios λ
k
= d
k

k
.
To complete this brief illustration, we tabulate in Table A.1 the quantities
mentioned so far for the data represented in Figure A.1.
A.2.1 The Cohort Life Table
If a cohort of individual subjects were entered into a study simultaneously
with the same age-variable and followed up until they died, then the life
table could have a simpler form, and a simpler interpretation. In that case,
the right-censored counts c
k
would all be 0, and the table itself would
contain all of the information (E
i
, A
i
, T
i
, D
i
)
n
i=1
for the n subjects. If a
were the common initial age, then the proportions Y
k
/Y
a
would estimate
164 APPENDIX A. GENERAL FEATURES OF DURATION DATA
Table A.1: Life table quantities for the staggered-entry survival data used to
construct Figure A.1.
k Age-int Y
k
d
k
c
k
τ
k
λ
k
1 [1, 2) 0 0 0 1.2 0.0
2 [2, 3) 2 0 0 2.0 0.0
3 [3, 4) 2 0 0 3.0 0.0
4 [4, 5) 4 0 0 4.8 0.0
5 [5, 6) 5 0 0 6.0 0.0
6 [6, 7) 6 1 0 6.8 0.147
7 [7, 8) 5 1 0 6.0 0.167
8 [8, 9) 6 1 0 6.05 0.165
9 [9, 10) 4 3 1 3.0 1.0
the fraction of the population studied which survived to age k, and the
identity Y
k+1
= Y
k
−d
k
would always hold.
However, only in very special applications, not in Insurance, can data
actually be collected in this cohort format. One is a study which follows up
a cohort of newborns, or a cohort of people selected somehow either at the
same age or with the same initiating event (like diagnosis of a disease whose
mortality is of interest). Some longitudinal epidemiologic studies, like the
famous Framingham study [ref ?] which monitored various risk factors for
heart disease, follow large numbers of people – many of whom are of the same
age or fall into narrow age brackets initially – over time. Animal studies can
follow cohorts, e.g. of newborn laboratory rats, which are subjected to the
same diets or survival stresses. But the one area of application in which this
kind of data is very common is Engineering Reliability, where a number of
devices are set running at identical (usually accelerated) stresses, in parallel,
and observed until they fail.
Despite the fact that mortality data for large human populations are
generally not collected in cohorts, the data are often tabulated as though
they were collected that way. Regardless of how the data in a mortality study
were collected, once can first estimate the age-specific death rates directly,
q
k
= number of observed deaths at exact ages in the interval [k, k + 1),
divided by the total number of person-years spent by subjects under
followup in the study
A.3. SAMPLE SPACES FOR DURATION DATA 165
This might be done in practice only after approximating or imputing the
times on test not directly observable in the study. Moreover, in Demography
or Insurance, the estimated death-rates are often altered slightly to enhance
smoothness of the estimated death-rates as a sequence indexed by k. Finally,
in presenting the death-rates for purposes of calculation of insurance premi-
ums or population projections, the death rates are presented in the tabular
form which we now define as the cohort life table.
The cohort life table, briefly, displays the (integer-rounded) numbers of
expected survivors at each birthday k and numbers of deaths between
successive birthdays, for a population of large hypothetical size experiencing
exactly the death rates q
k
interpreted as conditional probabilities of dying
at age [k, k + 1) given survival to the k’th birthday. Begin by choosing
a large conventional size l
0
, called the radix of the cohort life table, for a
population cohort of newborns. This number is a power of 10, usually 10
5
.
Denote by [·] the greatest-integer or floor function. Then the cohort life
table consists of the columns
l
k
=
_
l
0
k−1

j=0
q
j
_
= number of lives aged k
d
k
= l
k
−l
k+1
= number of deaths at ages in [k, k + 1)
for k ranging from 0 up to and including the largest integer age ω − 1,
where ω is the terminal age) seen for any subject of the mortality study.
Next to these columns may also be displayed the death-rates q
k
. Note that,
apart from rounding errors, q
k
= d
k
/l
k
for all k.
This ‘life table’ is an artificial construction, referring directly to no actu-
ally observed population, but containing exactly the same information as the
column of (smoothed, rounded) death rates q
k
. It is the mortality record
of a fictitious population cohort with exactly the same death rates after
smoothing and rounding as those estimated from some actual population.
A.3 Sample Spaces for Duration Data
The preceding sections have described first the actual setting in which ran-
dom durations are observed within a realistic mortality study, and then the
166 APPENDIX A. GENERAL FEATURES OF DURATION DATA
idealized presentation of the observed mortality in the form of a cohort life
table, in which mortality of a fictitious population cohort is recorded. From
the viewpoint of Probability Theory, random variables or data are formalized
as measurement functions on the sample space Ω of all possible detailed
outcomes of a survival experiment. It is instructive to define the sample
spaces needed at three levels of complexity of the probability and statistics
of survival models.
A.3.1 Sample Space for a Single Newly Insured Life
The simplest case is the one studied in the first two chapters of this book,
where only integer ages are recorded in the survival experiment, and all
probabilities and expected values related to functions of a single lifetime or
integer-age-at-death random variable [T]. Here the sample space and under-
lying probability is very easy to describe: Ω = {1, 2, . . . , l
0
} enumerates
the l
0
lives summarized in the cohort life table, with equal assigned proba-
bility Pr({i}) = 1/l
0
for each individual labelled i, 1 ≤ i ≤ l
0
. Recalling
that d
k
= l
k
− l
k+1
in the cohort life table, for all k = 0, 1, . . . , ω − 1,
we note that l
0
=

ω−1
k=0
d
k
. Then the single integer-valued age random
variable [T] for a new individual being insured can be explicitly constructed
as a function of i ∈ Ω as follows: for k = 0, 1, . . . , ω −1,
[T](i) = k if and only if
k−1

j=0
d
j
< i ≤
k

j=0
d
j
(A.1)
The interpretation of this rule is that if we number the l
0
individuals i in
the cohort life table in order of the whole-number age k at which they die,
then the first

k−1
j=1
d
j
= l
0
− l
k
individuals die at ages less than k, and
the next d
k
individuals die at integer age k.
The underlying random experiment is to select an individual i equiprob-
ably from the list of all all l
0
individuals in the cohort ‘population’: that is,
in this simplified model the lifetime [T] of the newly to-be-insured indi-
vidual is modelled as being the same as a randomly selected member of the
cohort population. Then the event [T] = k consists precisely of the subset
of indices i satisfying

k−1
j=0
d
j
< i ≤

k
j=0
d
j
, and therefore has size
d
k
and probability d
k
/l
0
as desired.
A.3. SAMPLE SPACES FOR DURATION DATA 167
Remark A.1 In the next subsection, we consider the sample space appro-
priate to a cohort of lives, assumed independent, simultaneously following the
same mortality rates summarized in a cohort life table. There are cases of
intermediate complexity not discussed in detail in this book, cases where each
lifetime is additionally labelled by a cause of death L or where events defined
in terms of the dependent lifetimes T
A
, T
B
of a pair of related lives (such as
a husband-wife pair) have consequences for Insurance. The feature of these
intermediate-complexity sample spaces is that a single vector (T
1
, . . . , T
K
)
of finitely many, possibly dependent, lifetime random variables are modelled
simultaneously.
The case of lifetimes (T, L) labelled by cause arises when for each of K
distinct types of mortality, such as death from specified disease (as in ‘cancer
insurance’) or accident or from other causes, there is an underlying random
variable T
k
, k = 1, 2, . . . , K, giving the age at which the individual would
have died from that cause if not earlier killed from another cause. Then the
actual observed failure age T is min(T
1
, . . . , T
K
) and the random label L
is the integer in {1, 2, . . . , K} for which T
L
= T. This setup is called a
competing risks model (see Gail 1975; David and Moeschberger 1978) in
the biostatistical literature, and relates to multiple decrement (cohort) life
tables in an Insurance context (Gerber 1997 Ch. 7; Jordan 1991 Part II), but
these topics are not treated further in this book.
The joint modelling of pairs (T
A
, T
B
) or larger multi-life groups of life-
times is important in the calculation of insurance premiums and annuity or
pension values for husband-wife pairs, for example in insurances of both hus-
bands and wives or in annuities — possibly variable, like US Social Security,
or with a smaller payment to the survivor — which revert to the surviv-
ing member of the pair when one member dies. This topic is treated under
the heading of contingent multi-life functions (Jordan 1991 Part II, or
Gerber 1997 Ch. 8). 2
A.3.2 Sample Space for a Full Cohort Population
As mentioned explicitly in Section A.2.1, the cohort population whose mor-
tality is summarized in the cohort life table is generally a complete fiction.
Nevertheless, the relative frequency ratios defining the survival functions and
168 APPENDIX A. GENERAL FEATURES OF DURATION DATA
death rates which are derived from the life table and used in calculated in-
surance premiums could also be viewed as statistical estimators of unknown
statistical parameters based on a set of n independent identically distributed
lifetime random variables T
i
, 1 ≤ i ≤ n. That is, rather than viewing the
cohort data as fixed, we can view them as the realized values of a set of
independent identically distributed lifetime random variables representating
a realistic underlying mechanism of mortality. In particular, while the sam-
ple space described in Section A.3.1 is inherently discrete, it is a little more
realistic to treat the possible cohort lifetimes as a set of continuous random
variables, which are independent across individuals and can each take values
anywhere on the positive age axis.
The sample space described in this Section allows us to consider the in-
trinsic variability of the estimated death rates q
k
and other statistics derived
as a function of observed age-at-death random variables if those variable val-
ues were lifetime lengths of individuals under followup for their entire lives.
This aspect of the random mortality experiment is still an artificial idealiza-
tion, since we have already argued in this Chapter that realistic mortality
studies generally have a much more complicated and inconvenient pattern
of staggered positive ages at entry and of loss to followup before death for
many subjects under study.
The greater realism of cohort-type survival experiments, whose sample
sizes we now define, is of particular use in Chapter 3 of this book, where
the quality of death-rate estimates is studied and where the simulation of
new cohort life-tables with specified survival functions S(t) is described.
Yet it is immediately apparent that this realism comes at a price of greater
mathematical complexity. The sample space itself must be a set of detailed
outcomes not only for a single continuously distributed lifetime, but for a
sequence of n independent lifetimes. The most natural space to use is
Ω = R
n
+
= [0, ∞)
n
, with the vector-valued mapping given by the identity
mapping on Ω:
T(s) = {T
i
(s)}
n
i=1
= {s
i
}
n
i=1
Unlike the situation in Section A.2.1, where the random-lifetime mapping
was defined in such a way that the probabilities associated with individual
outcomes were equiprobable, now the probabilities are defined by the prop-
erty that the lifetimes all follow survival function S(t) and are independent
A.3. SAMPLE SPACES FOR DURATION DATA 169
of one another, a specification accomplished by the definition
Pr
__
s ∈ R
n
: a
1
< s
1
≤ b
1
, a
2
< s
2
≤ b
2
, . . . , a
n
< s
n
≤ b
n
__
=
Pr
__
s ∈ R
n
: T(s) ∈ (a
1
, b
1
]×(a
2
, b
2
]×· · ·×(a
n
, b
n
]
__
=
n

i=1
(S(a
i
)−S(b
i
))
Probabilities of other events concerning the random-variable components
T
i
(s) are implicitly determined from this definition on n-dimensional recan-
gles

n
i=1
(a
i
, b
i
] by means of the probability axioms (finite or countable
additivity), since a very large class of events can be generated by limits of
increasing unions and decreasing intersections of unions of such rectangles.
Further details of the unique specification of probability laws from a gener-
ating collection of open sets can be found in more advanced treatments of
Probability Theory, such as Ross (2005) or Billingsley (1995).
A.3.3 Sample Space for the Realistic Mortality Study
The Sample Space Ω needed to accomodate the detailed outcome data
(E
i
, A
i
, T
i
, D
i
, 1 ≤ i ≤ n) described in Section A.1 requires a Cartesian
product of R
3n
+
whose coordinates model the values factors of all of the
random variables E
i
, A
i
, T
i
, 1 ≤ i ≤ n, along with a further space {0, 1}
n
to model the values D
i
, 1 ≤ i ≤ n. The usual assumption of independence
of (E
i
, A
i
, T
i
, D
i
) across different individuals i is embodied in a definition
of Probability on Ω as a so-called ‘product probability’ across n spaces
R
3
+
×{0, 1}. However, the joint probability density of (E
i
, A
i
, T
i
, D
i
), can
have all sorts of different realistic dependence structures. We refer to texts on
Survival Analysis (Cox and Oakes 1994; Klein and Moeschberger 2003; David
and Moeschberger 1978) for discussion of such matters. In this book, only in
Chapter 8 do we address a simplified although typical setting (‘independent
death and censoring’) to introduce maximumlikelihood estimators of survival
in models with piecewise constant hazards and Kaplan-Meier estimators in
models with general (‘nonparametric’) hazards.
170 APPENDIX A. GENERAL FEATURES OF DURATION DATA
Bibliography
[1] Billingley, P. Probability Theory and Measure, 3rd ed. Wiley-
Interscience, New York, 1995
[2] Bowers, N., Gerber, H., Hickman, J., Jones, D. and Nesbitt, C. Actu-
arial Mathematics, 2nd ed. Society of Actuaries, Itasca, IL 1997
[3] Cox, D. R. and Oakes, D. Analysis of Survival Data, Chapman and
Hall, London 1984
[4] David, H. and Moeschberger, M. The Theory of Competing Risks.
Griffin, Huntington, WV, 1978
[5] Devore, J. Probability and Statistics for Engineering and the
Sciences, 7th ed. Duxbury, Pacific Grove 2007
[6] Ellis, R. and Gulick, D. Calculus, 6th ed, Custom Publishing, 2002
[7] Gail, M. (1975) A review and critique of some models used in competing
risk analysis. Biometrics 31, 209-222.
[8] Gerber, H. Life Insurance Mathematics, 3rd ed. Springer-Verlag,
New York, 1997
[9] Hogg, R. V. and Tanis, E. Probability and Statistical Inference,
7th ed. Addison Wesley / Prentice-Hall, New York, 2005
[10] Jordan, C. W. Life Contingencies, 2nd ed. Society of Actuaries,
Chicago, 1967, paperback reprinted 1991
[11] Kalbfleisch, J. and Prentice, R. The Statistical Analysis of Failure
Time Data, 2nd ed. Wiley, New York 2002
171
172 BIBLIOGRAPHY
[12] Kellison, S. The Theory of Interest, 3rd ed. Irwin/ McGraw Hill,
Homewood, Ill. 2008
[13] Klein, J. and Moeschberger, M. Survival Analysis: Techniques for
Censored and Truncated Data, 2nd ed. Springer, New York, 2003
[14] Lee, E. T. Statistical Models for Survival Data Analysis, 2nd ed.
John Wiley, New York 1992
[15] The R Development Core Team, R: a Language and Environment.
[16] Ross, S. A First Course in Probability, 7th ed. Prentice Hall 2005
[17] Slud, E. and Hoesman, C. (1989) Moderate and large-deviation actuarial
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c 2009 Eric V. Slud Statistics Program Mathematics Department University of Maryland College Park, MD 20742

Contents
0.1 Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iv 1 1 6 9 9

1 Basics of Probability & Interest 1.1 Probabilities about Lifetimes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1.1 1.2 Random Variables and Expectations . . . . . . . . . .

Theory of Interest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.1 1.2.2 1.2.3 1.2.4 1.2.5 Interest Rates and Compounding . . . . . . . . . . . .

Present Values and Payment Streams . . . . . . . . . . 14 Principal and Interest, and Discount Rates . . . . . . . 17 Variable Interest Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Continuous-time Payment Streams . . . . . . . . . . . 24

1.3 1.4 1.5

Exercise Set 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Worked Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Useful Formulas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 33

2 Interest & Force of Mortality 2.1

More on Theory of Interest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 2.1.1 2.1.2 Annuities & Actuarial Notation . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Loan Repayment: Mortgage, Bond, Sinking Fund . . . 39 i

. . . . . 87 Curtate Expectation of Life . .3 2. . .4 3. . . . . .1 Comparison of Forces of Mortality . . . . .2 3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 3. . . . . . . .2 CONTENTS Loan Amortization & Mortgage Refinancing . . . . . . . . . .6 3. . . . .5. . . 69 73 3 Probability & Life Tables 3. .ii 2. .7 3. 112 4 Expected Present Values of Payments 115 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Exercise Set 2 . . . . . . . . . . 91 Interpolation Between Integer Ages . . . . . . . . . . . .1 Life Expectancy – Definition and Approximation .2. .3. . . . . . . . . . .10 Useful Formulas from Chapter 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Computational illustration in R . . . . . . . . . . 92 3. 41 Illustration on Mortgage Refinancing . . . . . . .1. . . . . 97 Exercise Set 3 . . 90 3. . . . . . . 100 Worked Examples . . .3. . . . . . . . . . . .2 Rules for Manipulating Expectations . . . . . . . 80 Expectation of Discrete Random Variables . 74 3. . . . . . . . . . 55 2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 3. . 48 2. . . .4 2. . . . . .3 Simulation of Discrete Lifetimes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 3. .5 2. . . . . . . . . . .8 3. . . . . . 103 Appendix on Large Deviation Probabilities . . .1. . 61 Worked Examples . 44 Force of Mortality & Analytical Models . . .5 Interpreting Force of Mortality . . . . . . . . . . 77 3. . . .3 2. . . . . . 65 Useful Formulas from Chapter 2 .1 Binomial Variables & Law of Large Numbers . . . . 96 3. . .1. . . . .1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Some Special Integrals . . . . .1 Probability Bounds & Approximations . . . . . . .4 2. .

. .5. . . . . . . 158 A. . . . 118 4.5 Extension to Multiple Payments per Year . . . 132 4. . . . .4 Continuous Contracts & Residual Life . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 Survival Data Concepts . . . .1 The Cohort Life Table . . . . . . . 123 4. . . . . . . .1 4. . . . . . . . .3. m = 1 . 162 A. . . . .2 Sample Space – Cohort Population . . . . . . .2. . . . . . . . . 166 A. .1 4. . . . . . 144 Worked Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 4. 116 Types of Contracts . . . . . .2 iii Preliminaries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 Formulas for Net Single Premiums . . . . . . . .2. .8 Exercise Set 4 . . .7 4. . . . . . . . .6 4. . . . .3 Sample Spaces for Duration Data . . . . . .5.3 Sample Space – General Case . . 163 A. . .5.4 4. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133 Integral Formulas . . . . . . . . . .1 4. . 125 Interpolation Formulas in Risk Premiums . . . 136 Numerical Calculations of Life Expectancies . .2 Formal Relations. . . . . 134 Risk Premiums under Theoretical Models . . . . . .2. . . . . 148 Useful Formulas from Chapter 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154 157 A General Features of Duration Data A. . . . . . .CONTENTS 4. . . 140 4. . . . . . . . . . . . 167 A. . .3. . . . . . . . . . . 169 Bibliography 171 . . . . .3 4.3. 165 A.1 Sample Space– Single Life . . . . . . . . . . . .5. .3 4. . . . . .2 Formal Notion of the Life Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 Continuous Risk Premium Formulas . . . . . . . .

the underlying formal random experiment being random selection from the cohort life-table population (or. and Life Insurance Premiums and Reserves. Both the Interest Theory and Probability related to life tables are treated as wonderful concrete applications of the calculus.iv CONTENTS 0.1 Preface This book is the text for an upper-level lecture course (STAT 470) at the University of Maryland on actuarial mathematics. The Insurance material on contingent present values and life tables is developed as directly as possible from calculus and common-sense notions. illustrated through word problems. in discussing Binomial random variables and the Law of Large Numbers. Notions of relative frequency and average are introduced first with reference to the ensemble of a cohort life-table. from economics to operations research to statistics. in particular on the basics of Life Tables. aiming not so much to prepare the students for specific Actuarial Examinations – since it cuts across the Society of Actuaries’ Exams FM. The calculation of expectations of functions of a time-to-death random variables is rooted on the one hand in the concrete notion of life-table average. the combinatorial and probabilistic interpretation of binomial coefficients are de- . but the prerequisite calculus courses must have been solidly understood. which is then approximated by suitable idealized failure densities and integrals. Such a focus allows undergraduates with solid preparation in calculus (not necessarily mathematics or statistics majors) to explore their possible interests in business and actuarial science. from the subset of lx members of the population who survive to age x). Survival Models. in the context of probabilities and expectations for ‘lives aged x’. Later. M (Segment MLC) and C – as to present the actuarial material conceptually with reference to ideas from other undergraduate mathematical studies. It is a truism of pre-actuarial advising that students who have not done really well in and digested the calculus ought not to consider actuarial studies. It is not assumed that the student has seen a formal introduction to probability. The lectures require no background beyond a third semester of calculus. for the exercise of their quantitative talents — to know something concrete and mathematically coherent about the topics and ideas actually useful in Insurance. This is a ‘topics’ course. It also allows the majority of such students — who will choose some other avenue.

some material is included on statistics of biomedical studies and on reliability which would not ordinarily find its way into an actuarial course. Premium Calculation. life-table) counts to deviate much percentage-wise from expectations when the underlying population of trials is large.) The general notions of expectation and probability are introduced. but for example the Law of Large Numbers for binomial variables is treated (rigorously) as a topic involving calculus inequalities and summation of finite series. PREFACE v rived from the Binomial Theorem. etc. These lectures present Theory of Interest as a mathematical problem-topic. which the student the is assumed to know as a topic in calculus (Taylor series identification of coefficients of a polynomial. This allows statistics students to connect the basic ideas of life table construction – considered by actuaries a more advanced topic – to the problems of statistical estimation. Interest Theory topics are presented here first as a way to learn the skills of applying Equivalence and Superposition principles to real problems. While the basics of actuarial Life Contingencies are treated elsewhere as a problem-solving method using mortality tables presented in a cohort format. but also as a way of highlighting the relationship between realized payouts under standard Insurance contracts and instances of standard payment streams with random duration.1.g. In this approach. The approach here is to return to the first principles of present-value Equivalence and linear Superposition of payment streams over time. Getting the typical Interest problems — such as the exercises on mortgage refinancing and present values of various payoff schemes — into correct format for numerical answers is often not easy even for good mathematics students. insurance reserves are seen as natural generalizations of bond amortization schedules..0. it is not separated by chapters into unified topics such as Interest Theory. This approach allows introduction of the numerically and conceptually useful large-deviation inequalities for binomial random variables to explain just how unlikely it is for binomial (e. Accordingly. which is rather unlike what is done in typical finance courses. While the material in these lectures is presented systematically. The reader is also not assumed to have worked previously with the Theory of Interest. Instead the introductory material from . Probability Theory. some effort is devoted in this book to contrasting the form in which the underlying mortality data are received to the form of the cohort life table used in calculating premiums and reserves.

No book at this level can claim to be fully self-contained.org/. life-table construction. One text which combines a general introduction to R with the specifics of many statistical data analysis methods. . this book differs from other Actuarial texts in its use of computational tools. and statistical estimation. open-source R platform because of its powerful tools for numerical integration. including manuals. Realistic problems on present values of payment streams. Free web access to the downloadable R platform. for example at http://wiener.csi.cuny. especially where building blocks like root-finders or numerical integration routines are needed. and they highlight the most important and frequently used formulas. and later. can be found at http://www. The Worked Examples sections show how the ideas and formulas work smoothly together. is Venables and Ripley (2002). we encourage the students to use the free. There are now many good introductory texts on computing with R in statistical applications. root-finding.r-project. At the end of each chapter is an Exercise Set and a short section of Worked Examples to illustrate the kinds of word problems which can be solved by the techniques of the chapter. Some good free tutorial material on R can also be found on the web.vi CONTENTS probability and interest theory are interleaved. rapidly lead to calculations too difficult to do by hand or by calculator. The coverage of the main body of each chapter is primarily ‘theoretical’. In this text. and on insurancecontract premiums related to those models.edu/Statistics/R/simpleR/. Finally.math. Throughout this text. illustrations and Exercise solutions and solutions are given in terms of R. various mathematical ideas are introduced as needed to advance the discussion. but the conceptually based formulas often translate more effectively using mathematical tools in computing platforms like MATLAB or the statistical language R. on probabilistic survival models related to human lifetimes. Actuarial students often do these calculations using EXCEL or other spreadsheet programs. but every attempt has been made to develop the mathematics to fit the actuarial applications as they arise logically.

x + 1 Now. such as Hogg and Tanis (2005) or Devore (2007). but will likely want to supplement this Chapter with reading in any of a number of calculus-based introductions to probability and statistics. and Expectation In the cohort life-table model. and the basics of the Theory of Interest as covered in the text of Kellison (2008) or Chapter 1 of Gerber (1997). 2.1 Probability. 1. lx for each integer age x = 0. ..e. resulting in data dx . and treat S0 (t) as the fraction of individuals in a 1 . alive at birthday x ) and dx = lx − lx+1 = number dying between ages x. 1.Chapter 1 Basics of Probability and the Theory of Interest This first Chapter supplies some background on elementary Probability Theory and basic Theory of Interest. . The reader who has not previously studied these subjects may get an overview here. . imagine a number l0 of individuals born simultaneously and followed until death. not just whole numbers x. where lx = number of lives aged x (i. allow the age-variable to be denoted by t and to take all real values. Lifetimes.

e. In response to a probability question. using numbers from a cohort life-table like that of the accompanying Illustrative Life Table. This nonincreasing function S0(t) would be called the empirical ‘survivor’ or ‘survival’ function. Note that the event of dying between exact ages 35 and 41 or between 52 and 60 is the union of the nonoverlapping events of the age random variable having value falling in the interval [35. who die either between 35 and 41 or between 52 and 60.g. those alive at age x. What do probabilities have to do with the cohort life table and survival function ? To answer this. k. we supply the fraction of the relevant life-table population. and for integers x. we first introduce probability as simply a relative frequency.2 CHAPTER 1. whose lifetimes will satisfy the stated property. decreasing. and that any probability question about a single lifetime is really a question concerning the fraction of a specified set of lives. and continuously differentiable (or piecewise continuously differentiable with just a few breakpoints) and takes values exactly = lx /l0 at integer ages x.. S(x) − S(x + k) lx − lx+k = S(x) lx denotes the fraction of those alive at exact age x who fail before x + k. S0 (y) − S0 (y + t) is the exact and S(y) − S(y + t) the approximated fraction of the initial cohort which fails between time y and y + t. to obtain identities like P r(life aged 29 dies between exact ages 35 and 41 or between 52 and 60 ) = S(35) − S(41) + S(52) − S(60) = S(29) (l35 − l41) + (l52 − l60) l29 where our convention is that a life aged 29 is one of the cohort known to have survived to the 29th birthday. The idea here is that all of the lifetimes covered by the life table are understood to be governed by an identical “mechanism” of failure. it can be approximated by a survival function S(t) which is continuous. e. 60).g.. 41) with that of falling in [52. This “frequentist” notion of probability of an event as the relative frequency with which the event occurs in a large population of (independent) identical units is associated with the phrase “law of large . Then for all positive real y and t. Although it takes on only rational values with denominator l0. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST life table surviving to exact age t.

• When probabilities are requested with reference to a smaller universe of possible outcomes.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6. and also disjoint unions of such subintervals. The main ideas arising in the discussion so far are really matters of common sense when applied to relative frequency but require formal axioms when used more generally: • Probabilities are numbers between 0 and 1 assigned to subsets of the entire collection Ω of possible outcomes. to the 29th birthday). and for a cohort life table constructed to reflect the best estimates of US male and female mortality rates in 2004. see the Social Security webpage http://www. the subsets which are assigned probabilities include sub-intervals of the interval of possible human lifetimes measured in years. which will be discussed later. remark only that the life table population should be large for the ideas presented so far to make good sense. the resulting conditional probabilities of events A are written P r(A | B) and calculated as P r(A ∩ B)/P r(B). in relation to the cohort population. PROBABILITIES ABOUT LIFETIMES 3 numbers”. • Two events A. specifies the subset of the population which survives to exact age 29 (i. such as B = lives aged 29. See Table 1. . At this point. with the probability of Ω itself defined equal to 1.1.1. as long as P r(B) > 0 — when the conditional probability P r(A|B) expressing the probability of A if B were known to have occurred. These sets in the real line are viewed as possible events summarizing ages at death of newborns in the cohort population. nonoverlapping) sets A and B is necessarily equal to the sum of the separate probabilities P r(A) and P r(B). B.e. • The probability P r(A ∪ B) of the union A ∪ B of disjoint (i. The phrase “lives aged 29” defines an event which in terms of ages at death says simply “age at death is 29 or larger” or. rather than all members of a cohort population.e.1 for an illustration of a cohort life-table with realistic numbers. B are defined to be independent when P r(A ∩ B) = P r(A) · P r(B) or — equivalently.ssa.. where A ∩ B denotes the intersection or overlap of the two events A. we regard each set A of ages as determining the subset of the cohort population whose ages at death fall in A.. is the same as the unconditional probability P r(A).html. For now. In the examples.

For details of simulation. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST Table 1. see Section 3.4 CHAPTER 1.1: Illustrative Life-Table. Age x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 lx 100000 97371 97230 97123 97060 96997 96928 96859 96807 96753 96702 96669 96629 96582 96521 96435 96330 96247 96122 95989 95840 95686 95548 95385 95217 95051 94900 94751 94585 94428 94295 94135 93986 93834 93674 93475 93288 93076 92848 92576 dx 2629 141 107 63 63 69 69 52 54 51 33 40 47 61 86 105 83 125 133 149 154 138 163 168 166 151 149 166 157 133 160 149 152 160 199 187 212 228 272 261 x 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 lx 92315 92020 91688 91280 90866 90402 89870 89283 88603 87901 87119 86278 85393 84419 83337 82249 81036 79692 78269 76793 75221 73525 71741 69808 67786 65600 63339 60968 58542 56186 53484 50936 48259 45448 42685 39975 37127 34295 31460 dx 295 332 408 414 464 532 587 680 702 782 841 885 974 1082 1088 1213 1344 1423 1476 1572 1696 1784 1933 2022 2186 2261 2371 2426 2356 2702 2548 2677 2811 2763 2710 2848 2832 2835 2803 .2 below. simulated to resemble realistic US Male life-table up to age 78.

In addition. for any ages a < b. but no value S(t) for t < ω is zero. no individual lives to the ω birthday. S(0) = 1. and conditional probability.2) which has the very helpful geometric interpretation that the probability of dying within the interval [a. The life-table. and in applications S(t) should be continuous and piecewise continuously differentiable (largely for convenience. and the mechanism by which members of the population die. Since fewer people are alive at larger ages. or a still more complicated set) obviously satisfies the first two of the bulleted axioms displayed above. by the fundamental theorem of calculus. by definition.1. most theoretical forms for . Note also that the ‘probability’ rule which assigns the integral A f (t) dt to the set A (which may be an interval. While ω is finite in real life-tables and in some analytical survival models. b). for formal definitions and more detailed discussion of the notions of sample space. are summarized first through the survivor function S(t) which at integer values of t = x agrees with the ratios lx /l0. and can be interpreted as the probability for a single individual to survive at least x time units. and because any analytical expression which would be chosen for S(t) in practice will be piecewise smooth). b) is equal to the area under the density curve y = f (t) over the t-interval [a. namely that P (Ω) = 1 (where Ω is the sample space of all life-table outcomes) and P r(A ∪ B) = P r(A) + P r(B) whenever A. Note that S(t) has values between 0 and 1. Another way of summarizing the probabilities of survival given by this function is to define the density function f (t) = − dS (t) = −S (t) dt (1. Then. S(t) is a decreasing function of the continuous age-variable t.1. event. PROBABILITIES ABOUT LIFETIMES 5 Note: see a basic probability textbook. B are disjoint or nonoverlapping subsets of Ω.1) as the (absolute) rate of decrease of the function S. The terminal age ω of a life table is an integer value large enough that S(ω) is negligibly small. such as Hogg and Tanis (1997) or Devore (2007). probability. For practical purposes. P r( life aged 0 dies between ages a and b ) b b = S(a) − S(b) = a (−S (t)) dt = a f (t) dt (1. a union of intervals.

Insurance contract payouts will be expressed as functions of the lifetimes at death of insured lives. However. or ages at death.6 CHAPTER 1. as discussed in Appendix A.1. which is the assignment rule of probabilities to all intervals (a. a random variable is a real-valued mapping X defined on a sample space Ω. which is a simplified model based on the reduced data-structure. 1. b] of values for X. and the average or expected values of these payouts will be used to calculate a fair equivalent value of the insurance contract to the insured. the sample space Ω is the set of all detailed outcomes of the underlying data-generating experiment. all of the interesting events concern lifetimes. In this book. The machinery for calculating the average values relates to the concept of random variable based on the sample space Ω = [0. such that {s ∈ Ω : X(s) ∈ (a. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST S(t) have no finite age ω at which S(ω) = 0. in which numbers at risk and numbers of observed failures are tabulated on age intervals of one year. denoted for all real numbers a ≤ b by P r(a < X ≤ b) ≡ P r({s ∈ Ω : X(s) ∈ (a. b]} is an event with assigned probability whenever a < b are real numbers. Think of the age T at which a specified newly born member of .1 Random Variables and Expectations Formally. Now we are ready to define some terms and motivate the notion of expectation. in this and succeeding Chapters. we analyze lifetimes based on the cohort life table model. also discussed in Appendix A. the detailed outcomes can be quite complicated. b]}) Remark 1. ∞) of lifetimes. In probability theory.1 In datasets derived from actual mortality studies or insurance portfolios. and in those forms ω = ∞ by convention. The most important feature of a random variable is its probability distribution. Subsets of the sample space to which probabilities will be assigned are called events. The real number X(s) is interpreted as the value which would be observed if the detailed outcome of the underlying random experiment were s ∈ Ω.

1.1. PROBABILITIES ABOUT LIFETIMES

7

the population will die as a random variable, which for present purposes means a variable which takes various values t with probabilities governed (at integer ages) by the life table data lx and the survivor function S(t) or density function f (t) in a formula like the one just given in equation (1.2). Suppose there is a contractual amount Y which must be paid (say, to the heirs of that individual) at the death of the individual at age T , and suppose that the contract provides a specific function Y = g(T ) according to which this payment depends on (the whole-number part of) the age T at which death occurs. What is the average value of such a payment over all individuals whose lifetimes are reflected in the life-table ? Since dx = lx − lx+1 individuals (out of the original l0 ) die at ages between x and x + 1, thereby generating a payment g(x), the total payment to all individuals in the life-table can be written as (lx − lx+1) g(x)
x

Thus the average payment, at least under the assumption that Y = g(T ) depends only on the largest whole number [T ] less than or equal to T , is
x

(lx − lx+1) g(x) / l0 = =
x x+1 x

x

(S(x) − S(x + 1))g(x)
∞ 0

(1.3) f (t) g(t) dt

f (t) g(t) dt =

This quantity, the total contingent payment over the whole cohort divided by the number in the cohort, is called the expectation of the random payment Y = g(T ) in this special case, and can be interpreted as the weighted average of all of the different payments g(x) actually received, where the weights are just the relative frequency in the life table with which those payments are received. More generally, if the restriction that g(t) depends only on the integer part [t] of t were dropped , then the expectation of Y = g(T ) would be given by the same formula

E(Y ) = E(g(T )) =
0

f (t) g(t) dt

(1.4)

The foregoing discussion of expectations based on lifetime random variables included an interpretation of the expected value of discrete random variables in terms of weighted averages which holds much more generally. In this chapter, the averages are taken over all lives tabulated in an underlying cohort life table. In Chapter 3, specifically in Section 3.3, averages are

8

CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST

taken over large samples of observations of discrete random variables. With the aid of the Law of Large Numbers, the weighted-average interpretation of expectations can be understood as a general mathematical result. The displayed integral (1.4), like all expectation formulas, can be understood as a weighted average of values g(T ) obtained over a population, with weights equal to the probabilities of obtaining those values. Recall from the Riemann-integral construction in Calculus that the integral f (t)g(t)dt can be regarded approximately as the sum over very small time-intervals [t, t + ∆) of the quantities f (t)g(t)∆, quantities which are interpreted as the base ∆ of a rectangle multiplied by its height f (t)g(t), and the rectangle closely matches the area under the graph of the function f g over the interval [t, t + ∆). The term f (t)g(t)∆ can alternatively be interpreted as the product of the value g(t) — essentially equal to any of the values g(T ) which can be realized when T falls within the interval [t, t + ∆) — multiplied by f (t) ∆. The latter quantity is, by the Fundamental Theorem of the Calculus, approximately equal for small ∆ to the area under the function f over the interval [t, t + ∆), and is by definition equal to the ∞ probability with which T ∈ [t, t + ∆). In summary, E(Y ) = 0 g(t)f (t)dt is the average of values g(T ) obtained for lifetimes T within small intervals [t, t + ∆) weighted by the probabilities of approximately f (t)∆ with which those T and g(T ) values are obtained. The expectation is a weighted ∞ average because the weights f (t)∆ sum to the integral 0 f (t)dt = 1. Remark 1.2 This way of approximating integrals of continuous integrands by sums corresponding to the integrals of piecewise constant integrands is closely related to the construction of the integral in terms of Riemann sums. For fuller details, see the definition the Integral via Riemann sums in a calculus book like Ellis and Gulick (2002). The same idea and formula in (1.4) can be applied to the restricted population of lives aged x. The resulting quantity is then called the conditional expected value of g(T ) given that T ≥ x. The formula will be different in two ways: first, the range of integrationis from x to ∞, because of the resitriction to individuals in the life-table who have survived to exact age x; second, the density f (t) must be replaced by f (t)/S(x), the so-called conditional density given T ≥ x, which is found as follows. From the

1.2. THEORY OF INTEREST definition of conditional probability, for t ≥ x, P r(t ≤ T < t + ∆ | T ≥ x) = P r( {t ≤ T < t + ∆} ∩ {T ≥ x}) P r(T ≥ x)

9

=

S(t) − S(t + ∆) P r(t ≤ T < t + ∆) = P r(T ≥ x) S(x)

Thus the density which can be used to calculate conditional probabilities P r(a ≤ T < b | T ≥ x) for x < a < b is −S (t) f (t) 1 S(t) − S(t + ∆) P r(t ≤ T < t+∆ | T ≥ x) = lim = = ∆→0 ∆ ∆→0 S(x) ∆ S(x) S(x) lim In other words, when it is desired to calculate the expectation of a function Y = g(T ) of the lifetime variable T only within the conditional or restricted population of individuals with lifetime ≥ x, then the density f (t) in the expectation formula (1.4) should be replaced by the density which is equal to f (t)/S(x) for all values of t which are ≥ x, and which is 0 for values t ∈ [0, x). The result of all of this discussion of conditional expected values is the formula, with associated weighted-average interpretation: E(g(T ) | T ≥ x) = 1 S(x)

g(t) f (t) dt
x

(1.5)

1.2
1.2.1

Theory of Interest
Interest Rates and Compounding

Since payments based upon unpredictable occurrences or contingencies for insured lives can occur at different times, we study next the Theory of Interest, which is concerned with valuing streams of payments made over time. The general model in the case of constant interest, to which we restrict in the current sub-section, is as follows. Money is deposited in an account like a bank-account and grows according to a schedule determined by both the interest rate and the occasions when interest amounts are compounded, that

the day) of deposit to the instant (i. the day) of withdrawal. which results in an accumulation factor 1 + hih .e. and the standard notation for it is i(m) instead of i1/m as written above. t + h] for a period h of less than one year is prorated down to the interval h to give hih . the balance as of time t + h is A0(1 + i(m)/m) and can be viewed as though it were simultaneously withdrawn and freshly deposited at time t + h.. the balance which the owner could withdraw at time t + h is A(0) · (1 + hih ). which means that the interest rate ih applied to a time-interval [t. The central concept of compound interest is that. This means that after a deposit of A0 at time t. Since the constant interest rate is quoted as a constant over the period of one year. Banks are not required to calculate interest from the instant (in practical terms. Thus.e. after which it would accumulate over the succeeding interval . an amount A0 deposited at the beginning of the interval accumulates to A1 = A0 · (1 + i) which could be withdrawn at the end of the interval. so that the accumulated amount is compounded (i.. If the quoted interest rate ih is annualized. or 12.10 CHAPTER 1. the depositor wishing to withdraw the full accumulation or balance at time t + s for 0 < s < h owns only the initial amount A0 . 4. is calculated by the bank and owned by the depositor) at time t + h. With amount A0 deposited initially at time t. interest rates are generally quoted as annualized rates. The further growth of deposited money over successive time intervals of length h = 1/m. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST is. if compounded at each additional interval of length 1/m. By convention. usually with m = 1. over the fixed time interval of one year. In practice. we have 1 + i as the accumulation factor by which an initial deposit is multiplied to find the balance at the end of one year. the intervals of compounding are generally fractions h = 1/m of a year. then we say that the interest rate is a nominal annualized interest rate with m-timesyearly compounding or simply the nominal interest rate. for an initial deposit A0 at time t which is to be retained in a bank account for the time h. deemed to be added to the account. is easily understood inductively. The compounding rules are important because they determine when new interest interest begins to be earned on previously earned interest amounts. because no interest has yet been credited. 2. and if interest earned is to be credited after every successive interval h = 1/m.

the nominal interest rates i(m) with different values of m but the same value of i can also be regarded as equivalent. t + (k + 1)/m]. if the balance A0(1 + i(m)/m)k owned by the depositor at time t + k/m is regarded as instantaneously withdrawn and redeposited as an initial balance for the next interval [t + k/m. where 0 ≤ s < 1/m and k ≥ 0 is an integer.2.1. the corresponding nominal rates i(m) for the most common values of m are obtained through the R code line: . or A0(1 + i(m) /m)(k+1) . the balance at time t + (k + 1)/m is A0(1 + i(m)/m)k multiplied by the interval-h accumulation factor 1 + ih. t + 2h] by multiplying the deposited amount A0(1 + i(m)/m) by the interval-h accumulation factor 1 + i(m) /m. THEORY OF INTEREST 11 [t + h. for k ≥ 2. Since the accumulation from the full year of deposit has the effect of multiplying the initial deposit by the factor (1 + i(m)/m)m . This proves that the nominal interest rate i(m) with mtimes-yearly compounding leads to exactly the same accumulation over whole years as a deposit account with the once-yearly compounded “effective” rate i ≡ ieff = (1 + i(m)/m)m − 1 Since any nominal interest rate i(m) has its equivalent effective interest rate i = ieff providing the same yearly accumulations. The overall result of our reasoning about m-times yearly compounded nominal interest is the following: Proposition 1. a factor which would have been 1 + i at interest rate i compounded yearly. is (1+i(m)/m)k · A0 .1 The accumulated value of an initial bank deposit of A0 compounded m times yearly at nominal interest rate i(m) after a time k/m+s. These whole-year-equivalent nominal rates are determined by solving the last equation for i(m) in terms of i = ieff : i(m) = m (1 + i)1/m − 1 (1.6) For example. Inductively. with i = .05.1 with k = m says that at the annualized nominal interest rate i(m) . or 5% effective annual interest. Proposition 1. Thus the balance as of time t + 2h = t + 2/m is A0(1 + i(m) /m)2 . an initial deposit of A0 accumulates after exactly one year to a balance of (1 + i(m) /m)m A0 .

Recall the Taylor series expansion ez = 1 + z + z 2 /2 + z 3 /3! · · · which is valid for all z > 0. Proposition 1. i(2) = .2 When i = ieff is fixed. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST mvec = c(1. i(12) = . imvec = mvec*(1.04889 .12 CHAPTER 1.04879 A few simple calculus manipulations allow us to establish the pattern of the displayed i(m) values for all choices of i. m. i(365) = .05 .05 ˆ(1/mvec) . Substitute this series with z = h ln(1 + i) into the displayed formula for g(h) to conclude that ∞ g(h) = j=1 (ln(1 + i) · h)j = ln(1 + i) + h · j! ∞ j=1 1 (ln(1 + i))j hj−1 j! is an increasing function of h > 0 and is always greater than its right-hand limit g(0+) = lim h 0 d exp(h ln(1 + i)) − 1 = eh ln(1+i) h dh = ln(1 + i) h=0 The information just established concerning the behavior of i(m) = g(1/m) as a function of m for fixed effective interest rate i = ieff is summarized as follows. defined as the force of interest. δ = ln(1 + ieff ) = lim i(m) m→∞ . where g(h) = h−1 (1 + i)h − 1 = (exp(h ln(1 + i)) − 1)/h has the form of a difference quotient from Calculus.2.4.12. 365) . i(4) = . the nominal annual interest rate i(m) for m-times-yearly compounding is a decreasing function of the positive integer m and tends as m → ∞ to the limiting value.1) as i(1) = . The right-hand side of equation (1.04909 .6) is a function g(h) of h = 1/m.04939 .

are of the form t = k/m for positive integers k. and the other nominal rates have similar expressions immediately derived from (1. Taking the limit as l → ∞. The effective interest rate ieff can be expressed through its nominal continuously compounded interest rate δ as i = eδ . also called the instaneously or continuously compounded nominal interest rate. 1. 1.048973. So far.1 and 1.05. i..1 with s = 0 says that the accumulation factor for duration t = k/m based on m-times-yearly compounding at effective interest rate i is (1+i(m)/m)k = (1+i(m) /m)mt = et δ .048970. with t fixed and arbitrary m ≥ 1. The corresponding force of interest. THEORY OF INTEREST 13 In the displayed i(m) values for i = . Now it is obvious that the accumulation factor by continuous compounding over a duration k/m + s (for 0 ≤ s ≤ 1/m is nondecreasing in s and must therefore lie within the interval [eδk/m. and in equation (1.3 The accumulated balance of an initial deposit A0 under continuous compounding with effective interest rate i.6) and Prop. This is essentially a definition of what accumulation by continuous compounding should mean. there follows: Proposition 1. eδ(k+1)/m]. but it is the only definition under which continuous compounding is well approximated by compounding aribtrarily (but finitely) many times per day. By continuity of the exponential function.1. m.6): i(m) = m (eδ/m − 1) For all durations t which are rational numbers. is exp(δt) · A0. is δ = ln(1. Prop. the daily-compounded nominal interest rate was i(365) = . the same reasoning gives etδ as the accumulation factor for duration t under the same effective interest rate with ml-times-yearly compounding. over a duration t > 0 which is not necessarily a rational number.2 the relations .3 the mechanism of accumulation under nominal interest rates applying with either m-times-yearly or continuous compounding. Since t = k/m is also of the form kl/(ml) for every integer l ≥ 1.e. says that the accumulation factor over duration t for instantaneous or continuous compounding should be the same. 1. or equivalently with force of interest δ = ln(1+i).2.05) = . we have described in Props.

to which is added in either case the service fees charged by the lender as a fraction of the beginning-ofyear loan balance. one with payments and times (αj . n) and interest rate function r(t) and the other with payments and times (α∗ . . 2. . . namely the Annual Percentage Rate or APR. These streams are called j equivalent at τ if the accumulated values at τ from the two payment streams under their respective interest rate functions are the same. and effective interest rates. t∗ . These payments may be deposits into a bank or investment account. . n and which are regarded as accumulating from their times of deposit according to a schedule of interest rates r(t) which remain constant within successive intervals of calendar time t but which may change from one such interval to the next.14 CHAPTER 1. Unlike the interest rate terminology discussed up to this point. origination and participation) are required to be reported.2. First. a discrete payment stream is a sequence of (positive) deposit amounts αj made at specified calendar times tj . Two basic principles govern all problems of valuing such payment streams. or successive payments designed to accumulate over time at interest to a sufficient reserve fund to meet some future liability.. or loan repayments. . The APR disclosure is intended as a consumer protection to the borrower. APR is a legal term which refers either (‘effective APR’) to the effective interest rate or (‘nominal APR’ or simply ‘APR’) to the nominal interest. j = 1. where τ ≥ maxj tj . . 1. . • The Principle of Equivalence defines equivalence at time τ between two payment streams. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST between nominal interest rates. j = 1.2 Present Values and Payment Streams Applications of the theory of interest generally involve comparisons between streams of payments which may be made at different times and may accumulate at different rates of interest. . 2. . j = 1. There is a further term for interest rates which must be disclosed to borrowers under US contracts. .g. . tj . . n∗) and interest rate funcj j tion r∗ (t). 2. maxj t∗ . force of interest. but may vary across jurisdictions in the way start-up fees (e. .

from which (by continuously compounding at interest rate i from the largest of the times tl until τ ) the final contribution of the αj deposit to the final accumulation at τ is again seen to be αj · (1 + i)τ −tj .7) again expresses the accumulated value at τ . which is also .2. with a little more notational effort and an inductive argument over the successively larger deposit times tl . . all under the same interest rate function r(t). while we will see that the second is an essentially obvious restatement of the commutativity of addition together with the fact that the accumulation of discrete payment streams is a well-defined linear function of the payment amounts αj . 1. 1. However. j = 1.3 gives the contribution of the deposit αj at time tj to the accumulated value at τ as αj · (1 + i)τ −tj .1 and 1. On the other hand.1. τ ]. Consider first the case where r(t) ≡ i is constant over the entire timeinterval [minj tj .3 as αj · (1 + i)tl −tj .3 to confirm that there is no difference between the accumulated values at effective interest rate i under continuous or m-times-yearly compounding. the direct inductive calculation of the accumulated amounts at all times tl ≥ tj due to the αj deposit. are also given via Prop. . . Then Prop. The formula for the continuously compounded accumulated value of the stream at time τ is n n αj (1 + i) j=1 τ −tj = j=1 αj eδ (τ −tj ) (1. 2. n) under interest rate function r(t) is the same as the sum of the accumulated values up to time T of n separate deposit accounts initiated at the respective times tj with deposits of αj . we can already see that the first Principle is a definition. . then we appeal to Propositions 1. tj . THEORY OF INTEREST 15 • The Principle of Linear Superposition states that the total accumulated amount resulting at time τ from a payment stream (αj . This argument. The two Principles as just stated do not yet tell us how to calculate the accumulated values at τ under interest rate functions r(t) that vary over time. and formula (1.7) If compounding is instead m-times-yearly and all of the time-differences τ −tl are integer multiples of 1/m. can be made into a rigorous proof of the Linear Superposition principle in the constant interest-rate environment with continuous compounding.

j = 1. This amount αPV is then called the present value of the payment stream at time t .2. .7) to the accumulated value αPV (1 + i)τ −t of the single deposit at time t using interest rate i. more generally. j = 1. . . n). t1 = 0 in (1.3) to the value 1 at time t. Then. tj . maxj tj ) and equate the accumulated value (1. The magnitude αPV is then the general present value of the payment stream at time t0. . . . n) at all times τ ≥ maxj tj . n) turns out to hold more generally whenever the same time-varying interest rate function r(t) is used to accumulate both the single deposit and the payment stream. This is the amount which must be put in the bank at time 0 in order to accumulate by the factor (1 + i)t given by Prop. . . . tj . j = 1. that a single deposit αPV at time t0 can be equivalent at all times τ to a payment stream (αj .8) This equation determining αPV evidently does not depend upon τ .8)) the present value at fixed interest rate i of a payment of 1 exactly t years in the future. yielding: n n αj (1 + i) j=1 τ −tj = αPV (1 + i) τ −t =⇒ αPV = j=1 αj (1 + i)t−tj (1. tj . at the same effective interest rate i = ieff with continuous compounding as is used to accumulate (αj . . j = 1. . It tells first (with n = 1. . The proof of this Fact will be left to an Exercise in Section 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST n αj (1 + i(m)/m)m(τ −tj ) j=1 The most important application of the principle of equivalence is in finding a deposit amount αPV at a single fixed time t which is equivalent to the payment stream (αj . To see why this is possible. n is equal to the summation j=1 αj (1 + i) The same phenomenon. 1. . . the present value at time 0 under constant interest rate i of a payment stream consisting of payments αj at future times n −tj . . . (1 + i)−t . . consider any fixed τ ≥ max(t.4 where accumulation formulas for variable interest rates are discussed.16 equal to CHAPTER 1. tj .

then those amounts are added to the Principal or Balance owed as of tj . Initially assume continuous compounding for all accumulations.1. However. at times 0 < t1 < t2 < · · · < tn .e. i. Each payment αj made can be broken down into the so-called Interest and Principal portions by the rule: Interest Portion of Paymt at tj = (Principal at tj−1 ) · ((1 + i)tj −tj−1 − 1) Principal Portion of Paymt at tj = αj − Interest Portion of Paymt at tj The first of these lines is clearly the amount of interest that the principal just after tj−1 would have earned at rate i over the time interval tj − tj−1 .2. if there are fees or late charges due at the times tj when payments are made. If the borrower plans to make payments αj . but is easily shown by an algebraic rearrangement of terms. we consider the compounding of interest from the point of view of a borrower of an amount L at time 0. The amount of the payment at tj minus the amount of interest at tj is the amount by which the principal decreases from just after tj−1 to just after tj . the lender must be compensated for the amount (1 + i)t L to which the original loan amount would accumulate. where the interest rate is constant with ieff = i. 1 ≤ j ≤ n. . Principal at time t = L (1 + i)t − j: tj ≤t αj (1 + i)t−tj . In addition.3 Principal and Interest. The principal remaining in the loan just after a payment has been made is the same as the amount the borrower could pay to pay off the loan completely at that instant. THEORY OF INTEREST 17 1.. while the accumulated value of the stream of payments actually made up to time t reduces the debt. in the present discussion we ignore all such additional fees or charges. and Discount Rates In this Section. minus the accumulated value at t under continuously compounded effective rate i of all payments made at times before t.2. given as an Exercise. The principal owed on the loan just after time t reflects that as of time t. then by definition the principal remaining on the loan as of time t is equal to the accumulated value at t of the single deposit L at time 0 . This simple Proposition is not quite obvious.

18

CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST

Exercise 1.A. Show that the foregoing definitions of Principal and Principal Portions of payments are compatible by deriving the following identity from the definitions. If Π(t) denotes the principal owed just after time t, and πj denotes the principal portion of the payment at tj , then Π(tj−1) − πj = Π(tj ) 2

The nominal interest rates i(m) for different periods of compounding were seen in Prop. 1.2 to be related by the formulas (1 + i(m)/m)m = 1 + i = 1 + ieff , i(m) = m (1 + i)1/m − 1 (1.9)

Similarly, interest can be said to be governed by the discount rates d(m) for various compounding periods, defined by 1 − d(m) /m = (1 + i(m)/m)−1 Solving the last equation for d(m) gives d(m) = i(m) /(1 + i(m) /m) (1.10)

The idea of discount rates is that if an amount 1 is loaned out at interest, then the amount d(m) /m is the correct amount to be repaid at the beginning rather than the end of each fraction 1/m of the year, with repayment of the principal of 1 at the end of the year, in order to amount to the same effective interest rate. The reason is that, according to the definition, the amount 1 − d(m) /m accumulates at nominal interest i(m) to (1 − d(m) /m) · (1 + i(m)/m) = 1 after a time-period of 1/m. The quantities i(m) and d(m) are naturally introduced as the interest payments which must be made respectively at the ends and the beginnings of successive time-periods of length 1/m in order that the principal owed at each time j/m on an amount 1 borrowed at time 0 will always be 1. To define these terms and justify this assertion, consider first the simplest case, m = 1. If 1 is to be borrowed at time 0, then the single payment at time 1 which fully compensates the lender, if that lender could alternatively have earned interest rate i, is (1 + i), which we view as a payment of 1 principal (the face amount of the loan) and i interest. In exactly the same way, if 1 is borrowed at time 0 for a time-period 1/m, then the repayment at

1.2. THEORY OF INTEREST

19

time 1/m takes the form of 1 principal and i(m) /m interest. Thus, if 1 was borrowed at time 0, an interest payment of i(m)/m at time 1/m leaves an amount 1 still owed, which can be viewed as an amount borrowed on the time-interval (1/m, 2/m]. Then a payment of i(m)/m at time 2/m still leaves an amount 1 owed at 2/m, which is deemed borrowed until time 3/m, and so forth, until the loan of 1 on the final time-interval ((m − 1)/m, 1] is paid off at time 1 with a final interest payment of i(m)/m together with the principal repayment of 1. The overall result which we have just proved intuitively is: 1 at time 0 is equivalent to the stream of m payments of i(m)/m at times 1/m, 2/m, . . . , 1 plus the payment of 1 at time 1. Similarly, if interest is to be paid at the beginning of the period of the loan instead of the end, the interest paid at time 0 for a loan of 1 would be d = i/(1 + i), with the only other payment a repayment of principal at time 1. To see that this is correct, note that since interest d is paid at the same instant as receiving the loan of 1 , the net amount actually received is 1 − d = (1 + i)−1, which accumulates in value to (1 − d)(1 + i) = 1 at time 1. Similarly, if interest payments are to be made at the beginnings of each of the intervals (j/m, (j + 1)/m] for j = 0, 1, . . . , m − 1, with a final principal repayment of 1 at time 1, then the interest payments should be d(m) /m. This follows because the amount effectively borrowed (after the immediate interest payment) over each interval (j/m, (j + 1)/m] is (1 − d(m)/m), which accumulates in value over the interval of length 1/m to an amount (1 − d(m) /m)(1 + i(m)/m) = 1. So throughout the year-long life of the loan, the principal owed at (or just before) each time (j + 1)/m is exactly 1. The overall result concerning m-period-yearly discount interest is 1 at time 0 is equivalent to the stream of m payments of d(m) /m at times 0, 1/m, 2/m, . . . , (m−1)/m plus the payment of 1 at time 1. A useful algebraic exercise to confirm the displayed assertions is:

20

CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST

Exercise 1.B. Verify that the present values at time 0 of the payment streams with m interest payments in the displayed assertions are respectively
m

j=1

i(m) (1 + i)−j/m + (1 + i)−1 m

m−1

and
j=0

d(m) (1 + i)−j/m + (1 + i)−1 m 2

and that both are equal to 1. These identities are valid for all i > 0.

1.2.4

Variable Interest Rates

Now we formulate the generalization of these ideas to the case of non-constant instantaneously varying, but known or observed, effective interest rate r(t) at time t , corresponding to the instantaneous continuously compounded nominal rate, or time-varying force of interest, δ(t) = ln(1+r(t)). Consider the compounding of interest over successive intervals [b + kh, b + (k + 1)h], where h = 1/m for large m, there is an essentially constant principal amount over each interval of length 1/m. Since we assume the functions r(t) and therefore ln(1 + δ(t)) are uniformly continuous in t, so that over very short intervals [b + kh, b + (k + 1)h] with instantaneous compounding, the interest rate and its associated force of interest are essentially constant, with accumulation factor over the interval given by eh δ(kh) . Therefore, if an initial time b and duration τ > 0 are fixed and [mτ ] = [τ /h] denotes the largest integer ≤ mτ , we find that the continuous compounding of interest over the time-interval [b, b + τ ] results in an overall accumulation factor of approximately ehδ(b) ehδ(b+h) ehδ(b+2h) · · · ehδ(b+([τ /h]−1)h) exp ((τ − h[τ /h]) · δ(b + h[τ /h]) which has limit as m → ∞ equal to 1 exp lim m m
[mτ ]−1 t

δ(b + k/m)
k=0

= exp
0

δ(b + s) ds

The last step in this chain of equalities relates the concept of continuous compounding to that of the Riemann integral. To specify continuous-time varying interest rates in terms of instantaneous effective rates, we would

Note. If the accumulated bank balance just after time kh is denoted by Bk . .2. α1 . . kh. αn made at times 0. . 2. . Therefore. (k + 1)h). . as follows.1. then how can the accumulated bank balance be expressed in terms of αj and δ(jh) ? Clearly Bk+1 = Bk · eδ(kh)/m + αk+1 . . we have just calculated that an amount 1 at time 0 compounds to an accumulated amount An at time τ = nh. By approximating the continuous interest rate function r(t) by one which is constant on intervals [kh. B0 = α0 The preceding difference equation can be solved in terms of successive summation and product operations acting on the sequences αj and δ(jh). (j + 1)h). Our object is to determine a single deposit D at time 0 which is equivalent at time τ = nh to a stream of deposits αj . . A0 = 1. b + τ ] to t exp 0 ln(1 + r(b + s)) ds Next consider the case of deposits α0 . THEORY OF INTEREST 21 equate the last displayed formula for the accumulation factor over [b. as in (1. . First define a function Ak to denote the accumulated bank balance at time kh for a unit invested at time 0 and earning interest with instantaneous nominal interest rates δ(jh) applying respectively over the whole compounding-intervals [jh. Ak = j=0 eδ(jh)/m We now return to the idea of equivalent investments and present value of a payment stream. 1. k − 1. where all amounts accumulate according to the continuously compounded instantaneous effective interest rate r(t) and associated force of interest δ(t) = ln(1 + r(t)).2. as discussed in Section 1. . . . . . . . which together with its solution is given by k−1 Ak+1 = Ak · e δ(kh)/m . .8) . j = 0. . . an amount D at time 0 accumulates to D · An at time τ . n. where h = 1/m is the given compounding-period. . and wherenominal annualized instantaneous interest-rates δ(kh) (with compoundingperiod h) apply to the accrual of interest on the interval [kh. j = 0. nh. . h. Ak satisfies a homogeneous equation analogous to the previous one. . . . (k + 1)h). . and in particular D = 1/An at time 0 accumulates to 1 at time τ . Then by definition. αk .2.

. 1. Ai Bk = Ak · Gk . This constant (effective) interest rate r is the one such that n sk 1 + r k=0 −tk =1 With respect to the constant interest rate r .2. . this single equivalent deposit D would be the same if the accumulations were valued at any other time τ > nh. Thus the present value of 1 at time τ = nh is 1/An . n. k = 0. . Therefore the stream of payments αk at times tk . . . for the uniquely defined interest rate r. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST of Section 1. Since Bk was the accumulated value just after time kh of the same stream of payments. (k = 0. n The formulas just developed can be used to give the internal rate of return r over the time-interval [0.2. the present value of a payment αk at a time tk time-units in the future is αk · (1 + r)−tk . to an immediate (time-0) payment of 1. . . k = 0. 1. G0 = α0 Thus Gk+1 − Gk = αk+1 /Ak+1 . and since the present value at 0 of an amount Bk at time kh is just Bk /Ak . Now define Gk to be the present value of the stream of payments αj at time jh for j = 0. . . k. . 0 ≤ tk ≤ τ . we have simultaneously found the solution for the accumulated balance Bk just after time kh and for the present value Gk at time 0 : k Gk = i=0 αi . we conclude Gk+1 = Bk+1 Bk exp(δ(km)/m) αk+1 + = . τ ] of a unit investment which pays amount αk at times tk . n) becomes equivalent. . . . Ak+1 Ak exp(δ(km)/m) Ak+1 k≥1. . .22 CHAPTER 1. and k Gk+1 = α0 + i=0 αi+1 = Ai+1 k+1 j=0 αj Aj In summary. . .

060 9366 .055 9749 .05 and 0. must be balanced with the value (here 10.1. and then 800 yearly for the following five years. 000 = 300 j=1 (1 + r)−j + 800 j=6 (1 + r)−j + 10. As in all calculations of effective interest rate. 000 returned to you (if all goes well) exactly 10 years from the date of the investment (at the same time as the last of the 800 payments. (We can guess that the correct answer lies between the minimum and maximum payments expressed as a fraction of the principal. 000 made now is expected to pay 300 yearly for 5 years (beginning 1 year from the date of the investment).) This tabulation yields: r (1. we can see that the right-hand side is equal to 10.C. As an illustration of the notion of effective interest rate.065 9000 .035 through 0. (That is because the indicated payment stream is being regarded as equivalent to bank interest at rate r. the present value ofthe payment-stream.11) r Setting this simplified expression equal to the left-hand side of 10.055. 000 (1 + r)−10 The right-hand side can be simplified somewhat. suppose that you are offered an investment option under which an investment of 10.070 8562 .) The balance equation in the Example is obviously 5 10 10.045 10574 .050 10152 . at the unknown interest rate r = ieff.005 from 0. what is the effective interest rate you will be earning on your investment ? Solution. since both x = (1+r)−5 and r involve the unknown r. with the principal of 10. Interpolating linearly to . Nevertheless.2. or internal rate of return. we can solve the equation roughly by ‘tabulating’ the values of the simplified right-hand side as a function of r ranging in increments of 0. to 300 1+r 1−x 1 − (1 + r)−1 = + 800x (1 + r) 1−x 1 − (1 + r)−1 + 10000 x2 1−x (300 + 800x) + 10000x2 (1. 000) which is invested.075. 000 does not lead to a closed-form solution.075 8320 From these values.035 11485 .040 11018 .11) . THEORY OF INTEREST 23 Exercise 1. If the investment goes as planned. 000 for a value of r falling between 0. in terms of the notation x = (1 + r)−5 .

Taking δ(t) to be the time-varying nominal interest rate with continuous compounding. and letting h decrease to 0. dividing by h.075))$root [1] 0. Subtracting B(t) from both sides of the last equation..24 CHAPTER 1.12).10000 } uniroot(Rsolv. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST approximate the answer yields r = 0.12) The method of solution of (1.035.5 Continuous-time Payment Streams There is a completely analogous development for continuous-time deposit streams with continuous compounding.05186. c(. we replace the previous difference-equation by B(t + h) = B(t) (1 + h δ(t)) + h D(t) + o(h) where o(h) denotes a remainder such that o(h)/h → 0 as h → 0. The ratio-rule of differentiation yields G (t) = B(t) A (t) B (t) − B(t) δ(t) D(t) B (t) − = = 2 (t) A(t) A A(t) A(t) .2. yields a differential equation at times t > 0 : B (t) = B(t) δ(t) + D(t) . and the R code for computing the effective interest rate in this Example is: Rsolv = function(r) { x = (1+r)^(-5) (1-x)*(300+800*x)/r + 10000*x^2 . For example. Suppose D(t) to be the rate per unit time at which savings deposits are made.05185676 1. again has a natural interpretation in terms of present values. we have D(t) = limm→ ∞ mα[mt]. where [·] again denotes greatest-integer. A(0) = α0 (1. the root-finding function in R is called uniroot . and B(t) to be the accumulated balance as of time t (analogous to the quantity B[mt] = Bk from before. when t = k/m). and the quantity B(t)/A(t) = G(t) is then the present value of the deposit stream of α0 at time 0 followed by continuous deposits at rate D(t).005 ∗ (10000 − 10152)/(9749 − 10152) = 0. The integrating factor t 1/A(t) = exp(− 0 δ(s) ds) is the present value at time 0 of a payment of 1 at time t.050 + 0. so that if we take m to go to ∞ in the previous discussion. while an accurate equation-solver finds r = 0.05189. which is the standard one from differential equations theory of multiplying through by an integrating factor.

1.3. EXERCISE SET 1

25

where the substitution A (t)/A(t) ≡ δ(t) has been made in the third expression. Since G(0) = B(0) = α0 , the solution to the differential equation (1.12) becomes
t

G(t) = α0 +
0

D(s) ds , A(s)

B(t) = A(t) G(t)

Finally, the formula can be specialized to the case of a constant unit-rate payment stream ( D(x) = 1, δ(x) = δ = ln(1 + i), 0 ≤ x ≤ T ) with no initial deposit (i.e., α0 = 0). By the preceding formulas, A(t) = exp(t ln(1 + i)) = (1 + i)t, and the present value of such a payment stream is T 1 1 − (1 + i)−T 1 · exp(−t ln(1 + i)) dt = δ 0 Recall that the force of interest δ = ln(1 + i) is the limiting value obtained from the nominal interest rate i(m) using the difference-quotient representation: exp((1/m) ln(1 + i)) − 1 lim i(m) = lim = ln(1 + i) m→∞ m→∞ 1/m The present value of a payment at time T in the future is then 1+ i(m) m
−mT

= (1 + i)−T = exp(−δ T )

1.3

Exercise Set 1

The first homework set covers the basic definitions in two areas: (i) probability as it relates to events defined from cohort life-tables, including the theoretical machinery of population and conditional survival, distribution, and density functions and the definition of expectation; (ii) the theory of interest and present values, with special reference to the idea of income streams of equal value at a fixed rate of interest. (1). For how long a time should $100 be left to accumulate at 5% interest so that it will amount to twice the accumulated value (over the same time period) of another $100 deposited at 3% ?

26

CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST

(2). Use a calculator or computer to answer the following numerically: (a) Suppose you sell for $6,000 the right to receive for 10 years the amount of $1,000 per year payable quarterly (starting at the end of the first quarter). What effective rate of interest makes this a fair sale price ? (You will have to solve numerically or graphically, or interpolate a tabulation, to find it.) (b) $100 deposited 20 years ago has grown at interest to $235. The interest was compounded twice a year. What were the nominal and effective interest rates ? (c) How much should be set aside (the same amount each year) at the beginning of each year for 10 years to amount to $1000 at the end of the 10th year at the interest rate of part (b) ? In the following problems, S(t) denotes the probability for a newborn in a designated population to survive to exact age t . If a cohort life table is under discussion, then the probability distribution relates to a randomly chosen member of the newborn cohort. (3). Assume that a population’s survival probability function is given by S(t) = 0.1(100 − t)1/2, for 0 ≤ t ≤ 100. (a) Find the probability that a life aged 0 will die between exact ages 19 and 36. (b) Find the probability that a life aged 36 will die before exact age 51. (4). For members of the poulation in Problem (3), (a) Find the expected age at death of a newborn (life aged 0). (b) Find the expected age at death of a life aged 20. (5). Use the Illustrative Life-table (Table 1.1) to calculate the following probabilities. (In each case, assume that the indicated span of years runs from birthday to birthday.) Find the probability (a) that a life aged 26 will live at least 30 more years; (b) that a life aged 22 will die between ages 45 and 55; (c) that a life aged 25 will die either before age 50 or after age 70.

1.3. EXERCISE SET 1 (6). In a special population, you are given the following facts:

27

(i) The probability that two independent lives, respectively aged 25 and 45, both survive 20 years is 0.7. (ii) The probability that a life aged 25 will survive 10 years is 0.9. Then find the probability that a life aged 35 will survive to age 65. (7). Suppose that you borrowed $1000 at 6% effective rate, to be repaid in 5 years in a lump sum, and that after holding the money idle for 1 year you invested the money and earned 8% effective for theremaining four years. What is the effective interest rate you earned (ignoring interest costs) over 5 years on the $1000 which you borrowed ? Taking interest costs into account, what is the present value of your profit over the 5 years of the loan ? Also re-do the problem if instead of repaying all principal and interest at the end of 5 years, you must make a payment of accrued interest at the end of 3 years, with the additional interest and principal due in a single lump-sum at the end of 5 years. (8). Find the total present value at 5% APR of payments of $1 at the end of 1, 3, 5, 7, and 9 years and payments of $2 at the end of 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10 years. (9). Find the present value at time 0 at a 6% effective interest rate of a series payments of 100 at times 1, 2, 3 and of 300 at times 6, 7, 8. (10). Find the present value at time 0 of payments of 100 at ten successive times 1, 2, . . . , 10 if the instanteous effective interest rate applying at all times t in the time interval [0, 10] is r(t) = .07 − (.002)t. (11). Find the internal rate of return (i.e., the equivaent constant effective interest rate) over the time interval [0, 7] of an investment which pays bank interest of 4% at times in [0, 5] if you make deposits of 1000 at each of the times t = 0, 2, 4, if the interest rate earned on the time interval [5, 7] is 6%, and if the total balance is withdrawn at time 7. (12). (i) Find the payment amount K such that a loan of 10, 000 at a 7% effective annual interest rate is repaid in exactly three payments consisting of an amount K at times 1 and 3 years and of 2K at 5 years.

4 Worked Examples Example 1. What is the value of the net profit at the end of the 5 years ? What is its present value (at 5%) as of time 0 ? First. Example 3. find the probabilities for all values of [T ]. For the following small cohort life-table (first 3 columns) with 5 age-categories. where d = . which in this problem is presumably the rate of 5% at which the money is borrowed. the compounded value of 783. . after paying off the principal of 1000. Suppose that a sum of $1000 is borrowed for 5 years at 5%. with numerical answer given by   22. 1. both unconditionally and conditionally for lives aged 2. Suppose further that the amount received is invested and earns 7%.53 for so the answer is ln(3)/ ln(1 + i). since the amount received should compound to precisely the principal of 1000 at 5% interest in 5 years. 5 into their principal and interest portions. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST (ii) After finding K in part (i). 3. the amount received by the borrower at time 0 is 5 5 1000 (1 − d) = 1000/(1.05/1.05)5 = 77. so is 98. K. and find the expectation of both [T ] and (1. 2K at respective times. with interest deducted immediately in a lump sum from the amount borrowed. and principal due in a lump sum at the end of the 5 years.07 i = 0. so the net profit at the end of 5 years.05) = 783. is 98.07)5 = 1098.05.52. 1. How many years does it take for money to triple in value at interest rate i ? The equation to solve is 3 = (1 + i)t.94/(1. The present value of the profit ought to be calculated with respect to the ‘going rate of interest’.94. decompose each of the three loan repayment amounts K.05)−[T ]−1 .10 Example 2.05 i = 0. Next.94.53 for 5 years at 7% is 783.28 CHAPTER 1. i = 0.24 for  11.53 (1.53.52 for t = 16.

61538 0 0 1. dx at these ages if l0 = 105 .10) + 3 · (0.95238 · 0.15385) + 3 · (0.05−[T ]−1 ) = 0.20) + 1 · (0. The conditional probabilities given survivorship to age-category 2 are simply the ratios with numerator dx for x ≥ 2 .20 + 0. WORKED EXAMPLES 29 The basic information in the table is the first column lx of numbers surviving.78353 0.90703 0. 4.15385 0. Suppose that the death-rates qx = dx /lx for integer ages x in a cohort life-table follow the functional form qx = 4 · 10−4 for 5 ≤ x < 30 8 · 10−4 for 30 ≤ x ≤ 55 between the ages x of 5 and 55 inclusive.15 + 0.61538) = 3.3) E([T ]) = 0 · (0.8497 The expectation of [T ] is interpreted as the average per person in the cohort life-table of the number of completed whole years before death.4 E([T ] | T ≥ 2) = 2 · (0.86384 0. lx . if the going rate of interest is 5%.10 + + 0.1. Find analytical expressions for S(x). . and the final expectation calculated above is the average of that present-value over all the individuals in the cohort life-table.40 0.90703 · 0. and with denominator l2 = 65. x lx 0 100 1 80 2 65 3 55 4 40 5 0 dx 20 15 10 15 40 0 P r([T ] = x) P r([T ] = x|T ≥ 2) 0.82770 0. The quantity (1.74622 In terms of the columns of this table.23077) + 4 · (0. . .40) = 2. .15 + 0.96.05−x−1 0.15 0.10 0.05)−[T ]−1 can be interpreted as the present value at birth of a payment of 1 to be made at the end of the year of death.78353 · 0.15) + 4 · (0. and therefore P r([T ] = x) = P r(x ≤ T < x + 1) = dx /l0 .4615 E(1.20 0 0. S(5) = .8277 · 0. we evaluate from the definitions and formula (1.4.95238 0.40 = 0.15) + 2 · (0. . Example 4. The random variable T is the life-length for a randomly selected individual from the age=0 cohort.15 0 0. Then dx = lx − lx+1 for x = 0. 1.86384 · 0.23077 0.

9996)x−5 so that S(30) = . . 30.940446 (. . .9992)x−30 The death-counts dx are expressed most simply through the preceding expressions together with the formula dx = qx lx . . . . BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST The key formula expressing survival probabilities in terms of death-rates is: lx+1 S(x + 1) = = 1 − qx S(x) lx lx = l0 · S(x) = (1 − q0 )(1 − q1) · · · (1 − qx−1 ) qx or So it follows that for x = 5. and for x = 31. .940446. S(5) lx = 96000 · (0. S(x) = S(30) · (.30 CHAPTER 1. . .0004)x−5 . S(x) = (1 − . 55.9992)x−30 = .

5 E g(T ) T ≥ x = 1 S(x) ∞ g(t) f (t) dt x p. dx = lx − lx+1 p. S(y) − S(y + t) = y f (s) ds p. 18 .5.1.5 Useful Formulas from Chapter 1 S(x) = lx l0 . 1 lx − lx+k lx p. 2 y+t P (x ≤ T < x + k) = S(x) − S(x + k) = f (t) = −S (t) . 9 m −m 1 + i = 1 + ieff = i(m) 1+ m = d(m) 1− m = eδ p. USEFUL FORMULAS 31 1.

32 CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST .

There are two primary methods of manipulating one payment-stream to give another for the convenient calculation of present values: 33 . in particular of force of mortality or hazardrates.1 More on Theory of Interest In this Section. we define notations and find compact formulas for present values of some standard payment streams. and theoretical families of life distributions. while the probability material prepares us to find and interpret average or expected values of present values expressed as functions of random lifetime variables.e. newly defined payment streams are systematically expressed in terms of previously considered ones. For application in Insurance.. To this end. non-probabilistic) theory of interest. we are preparing to value uncertain payment streams in which times of payment may also be uncertain.Chapter 2 Theory of Interest and Force of Mortality The parallel development of Interest and Probability Theory topics continues in this Chapter. The interest theory allows us to express the present values of deterministic or certain payment streams compactly. and (b) more discussion of lifetime random variables. This installment of the course covers: (a) further formulas and topics in the pure (i. 2.

if one payment-stream can be obtained from a second one precisely by delaying all payments by the same amount t of time.34 CHAPTER 2. 2. Also. (i) If s0 = 0 and s1 = · · · = snm = 1/m in the discrete setting. related to periodic premium and annuity payments. i. from now on the standard and convenient notation v ≡ 1/(1 + i) = 1 / i(m) 1+ m m will be used for the present value of a payment of 1 one year later. and some very particular streams of payments sj at times tj . The following subsection contains several useful applications of these methods..1 Annuities & Actuarial Notation The general present value formulas above will now be specialized to the case of constant (instantaneous) interest rate r(t) ≡ i ≡ eδ at all times t ≥ 0. where m ≥ 1 denotes the number of payments per year. if a payment-stream A can be obtained as the superposition of payment streams B and C. then the payment-stream is called an immediate annuity. to nm m−1 j=1 1+ i(m) m −j = 1+ i(m) m −1 1 − (1 + i(m)/m)−nm m(1 − (1 + i(m)/m)−1 ) . then the present value of stream A is the sum of the present values of B and C. see Worked Example 2 at the end of the Chapter. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY • First. and tj = j/m. and as before the m-times-per-year equivalent nominal interest rate is denoted by i(m) . For another simple illustration.1.e. by the geometric-series summation formula. The effective interest rate is always denoted by i = ieff . then the present value of the first one is v t multiplied by the present value of the second. and its present value Gn (m) is given the notation an and is equal. • Second. can be obtained by paying the sum of the timed payment amounts defining the streams B and C.

s0 = 1/m but snm = 0.1.2).2) m m m The first of these formulas recognizes the annuity-due payment-stream as identical to the annuity-immediate payment-stream shifted earlier by the time 1/m and therefore worth more by the accumulation-factor (1+i)1/m = 1 + i(m) /m.1) shows that all of the values an differ only through the factors i(m). The third expression in (2. The limiting behavior of the nominal interest rate can be seen rapidly from the formula i(m) = m (1 + i)1/m − 1 = δ · exp(δ/m) − 1 δ/m since (ez − 1)/z converges to 1 as z → 0.1) All of these immediate annuity values. with the limiting nominal interest-rate which was shown in the previous chapter to be limm i(m) = i(∞) = δ.1.9) that i(m) = m{(1 + i)1/m − 1}. Then by (2. (m) Formula (2. are roughly comparable because all involve a total payment of 1 per year. and a the present valueis given by any of the equivalent formulas i(m) (m) 1 − vn 1 (m) (m) ) an = + an = + an−1/m (2. the present value of an annuity paid instantaneously at constant unit rate. the remaining stream coincides with the annuity-immediate stream consisting of nm − 1 (instead of nm) payments of 1/m. Recall from formula (1. n but varying m.3) an = lim an = lim an = ¨ m→∞ m→∞ δ . 1 − vn (m) (m) (2. which differ by only a few percent for varying m and fixed i. instead of the payment stream defining the immediate annuity. a ¨n (m) = (1 + In the limit as m → ∞ for fixed n. the notation an denotes the continuous annuity. MORE ON THEORY OF INTEREST which shows that an (m) 35 = 1 − vn 1 − ((1 + i(m)/m)−m )n = m (1 + i(m)/m − 1) i(m) (2. that is.2) represents the annuity-due stream as being equal to the annuity-immediate stream with the payment of 1/m at t = 0 added and the payment of 1/m at t = n removed. for fixed v. If.2.1) and (2. and the present value notation (m) changes to ¨ n . The final expression says that if the time-0 payment is removed from the annuity-due. The payment stream is then called an annuity-due. then nm deposits of 1/m are made at an arithmetic progression of times from 1/m to n inclusive. as shown in Table 2.

0294 .0961 .137 .0675 .0297 .0296 .0485 .03 . INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY Table 2. 2 A handy formula for annuity-due present values follows easily by recalling that 1 − d(m) = m 1 + i(m) m −1 (m) implies d(m) = i(m) 1 + i(m) /m Then.0492 .141 .0942 .0938 .5) .141 .0957 .139 Remark 2.0199 .0669 . In the limit as m → ∞.4) as: a∞ (m) = 1 i(m) .1) and (2. for various choices of effective annual interest rate i and number m of compounding periods per year.138 .0931 .0946 .0198 .0298 .02 .0673 .0671 .0199 .1: Values of nominal interest rates i(m) (upper number) and d(m) (lower number). by (2.143 .0489 .15 .07 .0491 .145 . the continuous annuity definition an and formula remain valid with any positive real number n.0684 . an ¨ (m) = (1 − v n ) · 1 + i(m) /m 1 − vn = i(m) d(m) (2.0293 .0198 .0295 .1).0198 .1 The definition and formulas for the immediate annuity an (m) and the annuity-due ¨ n remain valid if nm but not necessarily n itself a is an integer.4) In case m is 1. and the annuities are called perpetuities (respectively immediate and ¨ due) with present-value formulas obtained from (2.2) and (2.135 . the notations become a∞ (m) a∞ . In the limit where n → ∞.0682 .0968 .0486 .10 .0490 .0688 .0678 .142 .0949 .0198 .0482 .0297 .05 .0199 .0965 .0294 .0665 . i= m=2 3 4 6 12 . a ¨∞ (m) = 1 d(m) (2.0976 .0680 .0494 .137 .36 CHAPTER 2.0487 .0197 .0296 .0197 .0295 .0484 .0198 . the superscript (m) is omitted from all of the annuity (m) and notations.

1/m from the annuity-due starting at time 1/m. ¨ (m) (m) and therefore its present value must be a∞ · ¨ ∞ . but deferred by a time 1/m — is related to the perpetual annuity-due in the obvious way (I (m)a)∞ (m) (m) = v 1/m (I (m)a)∞ ¨ (m) = (I (m)¨)∞ a (m) (1 + i(m)/m) = 1 i(m) d(m) . Clearly the present value is ∞ (I (m) (m) a)∞ ¨ = k=0 m−2 (k + 1) 1 + i(m) m −k Here are two methods to sum this series.2. . Therefore. First. forever. Consider first the case of the increasing perpetual annuity-due. which is defined as the present value of a stream of ¨ payments (k + 1)/m2 at times k/m. the second based on actuarial intuition. (ii). (iii). up to the payment of 1/m from the annuity-due starting at time k/m. . without worrying about the strict justification for differentiating an infinite series term-by-term. 1/m. Putting together all of these payment streams gives a total of (k +1)/m paid at time k/m. . Another way to reach the same result is to recognize the increasing perpetual annuity-due as 1/m multiplied by (m) the superposition of perpetuities-due a∞ paid at times 0. for k = 0. where the geometric-series formula has been used to sum the second expression. 1. 1/m at (j + 1)/m. ∞ (k + 1) xk = k=0 d dx ∞ xk+1 = k=0 d x = (1 − x)−2 dx 1 − x for 0 < x < 1. consider each annuity-due a∞ paid at a time j/m as ¨ being equivalent to a stream of payments 1/m at time j/m. MORE ON THEORY OF INTEREST 37 We now build some more general annuity-related present values out of (m) (m) a the standard functions an and ¨ n . etc. with x = (1 + i(m) /m)−1 and 1 − x = (i(m)/m)/(1 + i(m)/m). (m) denoted (I (m)a)∞ . (I (m) (m) a ¨ )∞ =m −2 i(m)/m 1 + i(m)/m −2 = 1 d(m) 2 = a ¨∞ (m) 2 and (2. . . the first purely mathematical. . The increasing perpetual annuity-immediate (I (m)a)∞ — the same payment stream as in the increasing annuity-due. .1. As an aid in recognizing ¨ a (m) this equivalence. 2/m. of which 1/m comes from the annuity-due starting at time 0.5) has been used in the last step.

1. . as usual. nm − 1. fill in details of a second. the payment amount at each of the times j/m. . analogous to the second verification in pargraph (ii) above. . equate the payments 1 0 = (k + 1)/m2 − n · m − (k − nm + 1)/m2 received at times k/m for k ≥ nm. This is the present value (I (m) ¨)n a of the payment-stream of 2 (k + 1)/m at time k/m.38 CHAPTER 2. The easiest way to obtain the present value is through the identity (I (m) ¨)n a (m) (m) + (D(m) a)n ¨ (m) = (n + 1 (m) ) an ¨ m (2. Evidently. . (v). the method of proving this is to observe that in the paymentstream whose present value is given on the left-hand side. As an exercise. with no further payments at or after time n. in the last line. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY (iv).4) and (2. . is j +1 j 1 n 1 − 2) = (n + ) + ( 2 m m m m m . . The latter identity is easy to justify either by the ¨ formulas (2. . for j = 0. . recall that v = (1 + i)−1 = (1 + i(m)/m)−m and that (m) (m) an ¨ = a∞ (1 − v n ).) Thus (I (m)¨)n a (m) = (I (m)a)∞ ¨ = a∞ ¨ = a∞ ¨ (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) 1 − v n − n¨∞ v n a (m) (m) a∞ − v n ¨ ∞ + n ¨ a an ¨ − n vn where. (To see this clearly. Now consider the increasing annuity-due of finite duration (m) n years.5) or by regarding the annuity-due payment stream as a superposition of the payment-stream up to time n − 1/m and the paymentstream starting at time n. intuitive verification. for k = 0. nm − 1. this payment(m) stream is equivalent to (I (m)a)∞ minus the sum of n multiplied by an ¨ (m) annuity-due a∞ starting at time n together with an increasing annuity¨ (m) a due (I (m) ¨)∞ starting at time n. The decreasing annuity (D(m) ¨)n a is defined as (the present value of) a stream of payments starting with n/m at time 0 and decreasing by 1/m2 after every time-period of 1/m.6) Again.

2/m. and finally repays or redeems the face or principal amount of the bond at the end of the n year term of the bond.1.2 Loan Repayment: Mortgage. and usually with first payment at time 0) for a total duration of n years. (The regular interest payments used to be called coupon payments because of small paper coupons attached to the paper bond document. . at time n − 1/m if the first payment was made at time 0) the loan has been completely paid off. Thus. and which the investor would regularly redeem at a bank. In ordinary consumer purchases or long-term fixerd-rate loans on the purchase of a house. to be repaid by equal installments at the end of every period 1/m .7) . . so that at the last payment (the nm’th payment. with first payment made at time 1/m and last at time n. 1 Recall that the present value of a payment stream of amount c per year. 1 (m) L i(m) m (1 − v n ) (2. if an amount L has been borrowed for a term of n years. called the face amount of the bond. MORE ON THEORY OF INTEREST 39 2. at fixed nominal interest rate i(m). is c an . . A second kind of plan to repay a loan is to pay equal amounts to cover only the interest amounts accrued every 1/m year on the principal for a duration of n years. This arrangement is used by corporations or government agencies which issue bonds: the borrowing agency receives the loan amount from investors at time 0. Sinking Fund Perhaps the most common application of interest theory is the calculation of the payment amounts needed to repay a loan according to a few standard repayment plans. ‘mortgage’ refers to the way in which the promise to repay is secured by the house or other property purchased with the amount borrowed. with the principal (the original amount borrowed) also repaid in a lump sum at time n.1. We refer to this kind of repayment schedule with level payments as a mortgage loan. and regularly issues interest payments after every period of 1/m year (usually with m = 2 or 4). the usual repayment plan is a series of level or equal payments made m times yearly (usually with m = 12. at scheduled times. n − 1/m. . for the interest payment amount. (m) with c/m paid at times 1/m. n/m. then the level payment c/m or installment payment amount (m) is obtained by equating L = c an Mortgage Payment = L/(m an ) = where v = 1/(1 + i) = (1 + i(m)/m)−m . Bond.2.) The reader should look In legal and historical terms.

will often obligate itself through a formal legal arrangement to devote a certain category of income to a so-called sinking fund.40 CHAPTER 2. . up to the final redemption when the principal is paid. Apart from the bond interest payments at a contractual effective interst rate i made directly to investors (the lenders). Remark 2. For m = m or i = i. At (or just after) an intermediate times k/m. 2.2 Note that.3 where loan repayment amounts were formally broken down into interest and principal portions. where the future payouts are not determinstic but rather contingent on the mortality experience of the portfolio of insured lives. if a borrowed amount L is repaid by regular interest payments and a sinking fund. with the intention that the sinking fund will accumulate at its own possibly different investment interest rate i to the principal or face amount of the issued bond at time n. We will see. Now a corporation or governmental agency which borrows money from investors by issuing a bond. . the borrowing agency will also pay regular amounts at intervals of 1/m year to the sinking fund trustee for the same term of n years as the bond. a separate calculation is needed.A in Sec. later in this book. an investment account maintained by a trustee. . 1.3 shows that the original face amount or principal is also the principal or balance owed on the loan just after each interest payment. and the result of Exercise 1. .7). in order to confirm the sense of this bond repayment plan. leading to several exercises at the end of the Chapter. the amount built up in the sinking fund is referred to as a reserve toward the ultimate redemption of the principal of the bond.2. . Since each payment by the borrower at times k/m for k = 1. each of the intermediate payments contains 0 principal portion. then evidently the sum of the regular m-times-yearly interest and sinking fund payment at each time k/m is precisely the same as the mortgage payment (2. and if the number of payments per year into the fund is m = m and the effective interest rate for the sinking fund is i = i.2. nm (apart from the final lump sum principal repayment) consists of interest only (equal to the original face amount multiplied by (1 + i)1/m − 1 = i(m)/m). that insurance reserves generalize these deterministic reserves to Insurances. at which time the principal is repaid directly to the bond investors. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY back to Section 1. The following Exercise with sketched solution gives an example.

Find the amount of the level annual sinking fund deposit. how much can be attributed to interest and how much to principal ? Consider the present value at time 0 of the debt for a unit (L = 1) loan amount less the accumulated amounts paid through time k/m : 1 − (m ak/m ) / (m an ) = 1 − (m) (m) 1 − v k/m v k/m − v n = 1 − vn 1 − vn The remaining debt.A. Solution of Exercise 2. the sinking fund must appreciate to the loan amount of L = 107 at time t = 10.055 where a indicates that the annuity is calculated at interest rate i .055)−10 1. k/m = (1 + i)k/m 1 − v n−k/m v k/m − v n = 1 − vn 1 − vn (2.04). so is equal to Bn.8) The amount of interest for a loan amount of 1 after time 1/m is (1 + i)1/m − 1 = i(m) /m.7).A. Therefore the interest included in the payment at . valued just after time k/m. 2. MORE ON THEORY OF INTEREST 41 Exercise 2. Of the payment made at time (k + 1)/m. from tax receipts.2. per unit of loan amount.1.1. is denoted from now on by Bn. It is greater than the displayed present value at 0 by a factor (1 + i)k/m . So the annual sinking fund deposit D is found through the equality L = 107 = (1 + i )10 · D a10 = D 1 − (1. k/m . on which its financial advisors claim it can safely earn an effective annual rate of i = . Therefore the sinking fund present value at time 10 (equal to its present value at t = 0 accumulated by the factor (1 + i )10 must be equated to L = 107 . A small city issues a bond for ten million dollars for ten years at 4% nominal quarterly interest (m = 4) and creates a sinking fund into which it will make annual deposits (m = 1).3 Loan Amortization & Mortgage Refinancing We analyze next the breakdown between principal and interest in repaying a mortgage loan by level payments (2.055. Since the interest payments are made at the contractual interest rate i (corresponding to i(4) = .05510 .

The general definition of the principal repaid in each payment is the excess of the payment over the interest since the past payment on the total balance due immediately following that previous payment. nominal-rate 8%. 7%. $100.) Suppose that the new pattern of payments is to be valued at each of the nominal interest rates 6%. These formulas show in particular that the amount of principal repaid in each successive payment increases geometrically in the payment number.(k+1)/m immediately after time (k + 1)/m is re-computed as Bn. and that these valuations will be taken into account in deciding whether to take out the new loan. and costs plus points are then extra amounts added to the initial balance of the refinanced mortgage.1.4 Illustration on Mortgage Refinancing Suppose that a 30–year. or 8%. Note as a check on the displayed formulas that the outstanding balance Bn. the principal included in each payment is the amount of the payment minus the interest included in it. = 2. 000 mortgage payable monthly is to be refinanced at the end of 8 years for an additional 15 years (instead of the 22 which would otherwise have been remaining to pay it off) at 6%.42 CHAPTER 2. due to uncertainty about what the interest rate will be in the future. k/m of outstanding debt just after k/m.9) v −(k+1)/m 1 − vn as was derived above by considering the accumulated value of amounts paid. Thus the next total payment of i(m) /(m(1 − v n )) consists of the two parts Amount of interest = m−1 i(m) (1 − v n−k/m )/(1 − v n) Amount of principal = m−1i(m) v n−k/m /(1 − v n ) By definition. (The points are each 1% of the refinanced balance including closing costs. . with a refinancing closing-cost amount of $1500 and 2 points. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY (k + 1)/m is i(m)/m multiplied by the value Bn. which at first seems surprising. or i(m) v n−k/m 1 − v n−k/m (1 + i(m) /m) 1 − v n−k/m − = 1 − vn m 1 − vn 1 − vn 1 − v n−(k+1)/m (m) (m) = 1 − a(k+1)/m an (2. k/m minus the interest paid at (k + 1)/m.

08/12)96 = $91.57 Even with these different assumptions. and the present value as of time 0 (the beginning of the old loan) of the payments made through the (12) end of the 8th year is ($733. if the new rate of 6% were really to be the correct one for the next 22 years. of the payments still to be made under the old mortgage.31 + 1850.69. MORE ON THEORY OF INTEREST 43 The monthly payment amount of the initial loan in this example was $100. The respective present values (as of the end of the 8th year) at nominal rate of 7% of these two streams are: Old loan: 733. and the one after refinancing. is $(100. If 2 points must be paid in order to lock in the rate of 6% for the refinanced 15-year loan. as of the end of 8 years. continuing another 22 years into the future.00 = $92. 904. if the loan were to be refinanced.34 (12a15 ) = $88. then this amount is (. 904. The new principal balance of the refinanced loan is 92518. 000 − 51. 500. no matter what the term of the refinanced loan is. 368. and this is the present value at a nominal rate of 6% of the future loan payments.37 .37 = $94. (12) (12) . the economic rate of interest would be a nominal 7% for the next 22 years.31. suppose instead that right after re-financing. 597. 018.34. The new monthly payment (for a 15-year duration) of the refinanced loan is $94. Next.76) · (12a8 ) = $51. Thus. 018. 518. For purposes of comparison. it is well worth re-financing.68. the new refinanced loan amount would be $91.1. so the present value at 6% is $733.76 · (12a22 ) = $107.2.06 New loan: 796.76.31. Thus the present value.08/12)−360 ) = $733. what is the present value at the current going rate of 6% (nominal) of the continuing stream of payments under the old loan ? That is a 22-year stream of monthly payments of $733. and each loan would be paid to the end of its term.68(.06/12)/(1 − (1 + .31 = $1850.31 + 1. 700.02)92518.69)(1 + . then it would be a financial disaster not to refinance.76 (12a22 ) = $98. and despite closing-costs and points. (12) as calculated above. 000(.06/12)−180 ) = $796. In that case both streams of payments would have to be re-valued — the one before refinancing. 368.21.76. continuing 15 years into the future. Thus.08/12)/(1 − (1 + . 420.

At the time of sale. balances for purposes of refinancing both before and after application of administrative costs and points. In this section. at the time of selling the house on which the mortgage loan was negotiated. which is equal to RefBal + Costs. and the present value under any interest rate (not necessarily the ones at which either the original or refinanced loans are taken out) of the stream of repayments to the bank up to and including the lump-sum payoff which would be made. you would pay off the cash principal balance. 2. Concerning the syntax of R. Venables & Ripley 2002) is provided to do some comparative refinancing calculations. The outputs of the function are as follows. Calculate and compare the present values (at each of 6%. an R function (cf. m = 12. Lines beginning with the symbol # are comment-lines. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY Exercise 2. The function RefExmp given below calculates mortgage payments. as described above. (a) if you continue the old loan without refinancing. Oldpayment is the monthly payment on the original loan of face-amount Loan at nominal interest i(12) = OldInt for a term of OldTerm years. whatever it is. and ∧ denotes exponentiation. Suppose that you can forecast that you will in fact sell your house in precisely 5 more years after the time when you are re-financing. and the refinanced loan amount is a multiple 1+ Points of NewBal.5 Computational illustration in R All of the calculations described above are very easy to program in any language from Fortran to Mathematica. and k/m = RefTim.44 CHAPTER 2. and 8% nominal interest rates) of your payment streams to the bank. and (b) if you re-finance to get a 15-year 6% loan including closing costs and points. NewBal is the balance Bn. horizontally as a vector. The new loan. k/m of formula (2. for example.8) for n = OldTerm. the only explanation necessary at this point is that * denotes multiplication. 7%. but they are also very handily organized within a spreadsheet. and also on a programmable calculator. is displayed in ‘unlisted’ form. bank-officials.1. has . which seems to be the way that MBA’s.B. at nominal interest rate NewInt. in each numerical example below. and actuaries will learn to do them from now on. The output of the function is a list which.

# PayoffTim (no bigger than NewTerm) = time (from refinancing# time at which new loan balance is to be paid off in # cash (eg at house sale). NewInt. # OldTerm = term of initial loan in years.vnew^(NewTerm PayoffTim)))/(1 . # RefTim = time in years after which to refinance. # Costs = fixed closing costs for refinancing. # Loan = original loan amount. # Points = fraction of new balance as additional costs.vold^(OldTerm .vnew^NewTerm) list(Oldpaymt = Oldpaymt.vnew^NewTerm) vval = (1 + ValInt/12)^(-12) Value = (Newpaymt * 12 * (1 . ValInt are # nominal 12-times-per-year. and monthly payments # are calculated.2. NewBal = NewBal. RefTim. NewInt. MORE ON THEORY OF INTEREST 45 R FUNCTION CALCULATING REFINANCE PAYMENTS & VALUES RefExmp function(Loan.vval^PayoffTim))/ValInt + (RefBal * vval^PayoffTim * (1 . RefBal = RefBal.vold^OldTerm) NewBal = (Loan * (1 . ValInt) { # Function calculates present value of future payment stream # underrefinanced loan. OldInt. # The three interest rates OldInt. vold = (1 + OldInt/12)^(-12) Oldpaymt = ((Loan * OldInt)/12)/(1 . Newpaymt = Newpaymt. Value = Value) } . PayoffTim. Points.RefTim)))/ (1 . NewTerm. OldTerm. Costs.1.vold^OldTerm) RefBal = (NewBal + Costs) * (1 + Points) vnew = (1 + NewInt/12)^(-12) Newpaymt = ((RefBal * NewInt)/12)/(1 . # NewTerm = term of refinanced loan.

06. since the payments under the new (refinanced) loan are here valued at the same interest rate as the loan itself. with level monthly payments. 0.22.8.76 91018 94368 796.33 94368 Note that.06)) Oldpaymt NewBal RefBal Newpaymt Value 733. 0. 7.0. the arguments must reflect a ‘refinance’ with no costs or points for a period of 22 years at nominal rate 6%.46 CHAPTER 2.76 91018 91018 733. Suppose that you have a 30-year mortage for $100. in valuing the old loan at 7%. 0. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY monthly payments Newpaymt for a term of NewTerm years. 1500.0. the present value Value of all payments made under the loan must be equal to the the refinanced loan amount RefBal. and that after 7 years of payments you refinance to obtain a new 30-year mortgage at 7% nominal interest ( = .22. 0. 15. and the final output of the function is the present value at the start of the refinanced loan with nominal interest rate ValInt of the stream of payments made under the refinanced loan up to and including the lump sum payoff. 30.) We consider next a numerical example showing break-even point for refinancing by balancing costs versus time needed to amortize them.08.0. are all recapitulated easily using this function.08. 8. for example. at (nominal) interest rates of 6.02.0.0. The comparisons of the previous Section between the original and refinanced loans. 15. as follows: > unlist(RefExmp(100000.30.76 98701 (The small discrepancies between the values found here and in the previous subsection are due to the rounding used there to express payment amounts to the nearest cent. and 8 %.000 at nominal rate i(12) = 9%.07)) Oldpaymt NewBal RefBal Newpaymt Value 733. To use it.08. The loan is to be paid off PayoffTim years after RefTim when the new loan commences. We begin our numerical illustration by reproducing the quantities calculated in the previous subsection: > unlist(RefExmp(100000.

. the value under the old loan for payoff time 0 (i. MORE ON THEORY OF INTEREST 47 i(m) for m = 12).29 98946 Next we compute the value of payments under the old loan.07)) Oldpaymt NewBal RefBal Newpaymt Value 804.09. at 7% nominal rate.09. Thus..62 106042 The values found in the same way when the payoff time K is successively replaced by 4. As remarked above in the previous example. > unlist(RefExmp(1.09. 0. the payoff-time K at which there is essentially no difference in present value at nominal 7% between the old loan or the refinanced loan with costs and points (which was found to have Value 98946). .0. then the remaining payment-streams for both loans from the time when you refinance are equivalent (i. 98593.. For comparison. 98946. 0. have the same present value from that time) ? We first calculate the present value of payments under the new loan.25 are 99979. 0.62 93640 98946 658. also with level monthly payments.07.23. the valuation of the new loan does not depend upon the time K to payoff.7.04.) > unlist(RefExmp(1. also at payoff time K = 10.07)) Oldpaymt NewBal RefBal Newpaymt Value 804. Figuring present values using the new interest rate of 7%.0. 1500.. 3.167.0. (It is figured here as though the payoff time K were 10 years. 98951. 10.e.62 93640 93640 804. 3. with closing costs of $1500 and 4 points (i.e.0.30.1. 30. 30. what is the time K (to the nearest month) such that if both loans — the old and the new — were to be paid off in exactly K years after the time (the 7-year mark for the first loan) when you would have refinanced.e5. 4% of the total refinanced amount including closing costs added to the initial balance). for cash payoff at the time when refinancing would have occurred) coincides with the New Balance amount of $93640.0. since the same interest rate is being used to value the payments as is used in figuring the refinanced loan.e5. is 3 years and 3 months after refinancing. 10. 3.2.e.7.

the function S(t) called the survivor or survival function has been defined to be equal to the life-table ratio lx /l0 at all integer ages t = x. The topic called “Graduation Theory” among actuaries is the mathematical methodology of Interpolation and Spline-smoothing applied to the raw function qx = dx /lx . The way in which this quantity varies with x is one of the most important topics of study in actuarial science. An equivalent representation is S(y) = y f (t) dt .2 Force of Mortality & Analytical Models Up to now. The rate qx would be estimated from the cohort life table as the ratio dx /lx of those who die between ages x and x + 1 as a fraction of those who reached age x. Intuitively. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY 2. S(y) − S(y + t) is the fraction of the initial life-table cohort which dies between ages y and y + t. the notation 1 qx is replaced by qx . If T denotes the random variable which is the age at death for a newly born individual governed by the same causes of failure as the life-table cohort. are: t py = P T ≥ y + t |T ≥ y = S(y + t)/S(y) and t qy = 1 − t py = P T ≤ y + t | T ≥ y = (S(y) − S(y + t))/S(y) The quantity t qy is referred to as the age-specific death rate for periods of length t. and to be piecewise continuously differentiable for all positive real values of t. for all positive real y and t. In the most usual case where t = 1 and y = x is an integer. . and according to the Fundamental Theorem of Calculus. For example. lim P (y ≤ T ≤ y + ) = lim 1 y y+ →0+ →0+ f (t) dt = f (y) as long as the failure density is a continuous function.48 CHAPTER 2. Two further useful actuarial notations. and (S(y) − S(y + t))/S(y) represents the fraction of those alive at exact age y ∞ who fail before y + t. then P r(T ≥ y) = S(y). and 1 px is replaced by px . often used to specify the theoretical lifetime distribution. one important way in which numerical analysis enters actuarial science is that one wishes to interpolate the values 1qy smoothly as a function of y. where f (t) ≡ −S (t) is called the failure density.

) This exponential behavior of the age-specific death-rate for large ages suggests that the death-rates pictured could reasonably be extrapolated to older ages using the formula qx ≈ q78 · (1.34 per thousand in the eleventh year.0885 was found as log(q78/q39 )/(78 − 39). which are as likely due to statistical irregularity as to real increases in risk. roughly proportionately to . The reasoning above shows that for small qy Thus µ(y) = = 1 S(y) y+ . there is an erratic but roughly linear increase of death-rates per thousand from 0. As can be seen from Figure 2. Additional granularity in the death-rates can be seen in Figure 2.) Between ages 11 and 40.08. x ≥ 79 (2.0.0885)x−78 .10].2.4 to 3. or hazard intensity.3 deaths per thousand live births). 1.2. (But there were small increases in rate from ages 4 to 7 and from 8 to 9. failure rate.10) where the number 1. f (y) .2. After a very high death-rate during the first year of life (26. S(y) 0 f (t) dt −→ y f (y) −S (y) d = = − ln(S(y)) S(y) S(y) dy . Definition: The limiting death-rate qx / per unit time as 0 is called by actuaries the force of mortality µ(x).45 per thousand in the second year to 0. It is clear that qx Now consider the behavior of qx as must also get small. the same function is called the failure intensity. However.1 pictures the age-specific 1-year death-rates qx for the simulated life-table given as Table 1. where the logarithms of death-rates are plotted. there is a year-by-year decline in death-rates roughly from 1.2. Figure 2. since the probability of dying between ages x and x + is approximately f (x) when gets small. at ages beyond 40 there is a rapid increase in death-rates as a function of age.1 on page 4. In reliability theory or biostatistics. FORCE OF MORTALITY & ANALYTICAL MODELS 49 To give some idea what a realistic set of death-rates looks like. the values qx seem to increase roughly as a power cx where c ∈ [1. gets small. (Compare this behavior with the Gompertz-Makeham Example (v) below.

1: Plot of age-specific death-rates qx versus x. for the simulated illustrative life table given in Table 1.50 CHAPTER 2.02 0. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY Age-Specific Death Rates for Illustrative Life Table • 0.0 • •• ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• • 0 20 40 •••• • ••• •• •• • • •• • • 60 80 Age in Years Figure 2.1.06 • Age-Specific Death Rate • • •• • 0. page 4.04 • • • • • • • • •• 0. .08 • • • 0.

2.1. page 4. for the simulated illustrative life table given in Table 1. The rates whose logarithms are plotted here are the same ones shown in Figure 2. FORCE OF MORTALITY & ANALYTICAL MODELS 51 Logarithm of Death-Rates versus Age for Illustrative Simulated Life-Table ••• •• •• • -4 • •• •• •• •• •• ••• ••• -3 log(Death rate) -5 •• -6 • ••• • • • • •• • •• • •• • • -7 •••• • • • 0 -8 • • • • ••• • ••••••• •••• •• • • • ••• 20 40 Age in years 60 80 Figure 2. .1.2: Plot of logarithm log(qx ) of age-specific death-rates as a function of age x.2.

y+t µ(s) ds = ln S(y) − ln S(y + t) y Now exponentiate to obtain the useful formulas y S(y) = exp − 0 µ(t) dt . The force of mortality takes the form µ(t) = λ γ tγ−1 This model is very popular in engineering reliability. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY where the chain rule for differentiation was used in the last step. (iii) If S(t) = exp(−λtγ ) for t ≥ 0. ∞) ). then µ(t) = (ω − t)−1 . It has the flexibility that by choice of the shape parameter γ one can have (a) (γ > 1) failure rate increasing as a function of x (b) ( γ = 1) constant failure rate (exponential model). we find y y µ(t) dt = 0 − ln(S(t)) 0 = − ln(S(y)) since S(0) = 1. ω] ).52 CHAPTER 2. (ii) If S(t) = e−µt for t ≥ 0 (the exponential failure distribution on [0. Replacing y by t and integrating both sides of the last equation between 0 and y. then µ(t) = µ is constant. Similarly. or (c) (0 < γ < 1) decreasing failure rate. . Note that this hazard function increases to ∞ as t increases to ω. t py = S(y + t) = exp S(y) y+t − y µ(s) ds Examples: (i) If S(t) = (ω − t)/ω for 0 ≤ t ≤ ω (the uniform failure distribution on [0. then mortality follows the Weibull life distribution model with shape parameter γ > 0 and scale parameter λ.

α. Between infancy and . is a force-ofmortality function which decreases on part of the time-axis and increases elsewhere. β > 0 and the Lognormal. since the high-mortality diseases like heart disease and cancer strike with greatest effect at higher ages. (iv) Two other models for positive random variables which are popular in various statistical applications are the Gamma. In the Gamma case. human life tables also exhibit an aging effect at high ages. Of course. which really does occur in certain situations. m real. σ > 0 du √ 2π 0 is called the standard normal distribution function. would occur if mortality arose only from pure accidents unrelated to age. reflects what engineers call “burn-in”. In human life tables. Constant force of mortality.2. with S(y) = 1 − Φ where ln y − m σ 1 + 2 z . the expected lifetime is α/β. where after a period of initial failures due to loose connections and factory defects the nondefective devices emerge and exhibit high reliability for a while. the expectation is exp(m + σ 2/2). with ∞ ∞ S(y) = y β α tα−1 e−βt dt / 0 z α−1 e−z dz . The decreasing force of mortality reflects the fact that the devices known to have functioned properly for a short while are known to be correctly assembled and are therefore highly likely to have a standard length of operating lifetime. in the examples considered so far. while in the Lognormal. Neither of these last two examples has a convenient or interpretable force-of-mortality function.2. where the causes of death operate with greater intensity or effect at greater ages. which is easily seen from the formula S(y) = y exp(− 0 µ(t) dt) to be equivalent to exponential failure distribution. Decreasing force of mortality. FORCE OF MORTALITY & ANALYTICAL MODELS 53 But what one cannot have. infant mortality corresponds to burn-in: risks of death for babies decrease markedly after the one-year period within which the most severe congenital defects and diseases of infancy manifest themselves. Φ(z) ≡ e−u 2 /2 Increasing force of mortality intuitively corresponds to aging.

but not both.1. at least in western countries. Suppose that µ(y) is defined directly to have the form A + B cy . (Gompertz-Makeham forms of the force of mortality). initially decreasing and later increasing. flat middle.084. which may be a reasonable value except for very advanced ages.1. Figures 2. (Compare the comments made in connection with Figures 2. by adding a linear term Dy. If D < −B ln(c). and final increase of the forceof-mortality. hazard rates are relatively flat. Actuaries have developed an analytical model which is somewhat more realistic than the preceding examples for human mortalty at ages beyond childhood. or µ(y) = Bcy .54 CHAPTER 2.4 display the shapes of force-of-mortality functions (iii)(v) for various parameter combinations chosen in such a way that the ex- . Roughly realistic values of c for human mortality will be only slightly greater than 1: if the Gompertz (non-constant) term in force-of-mortality were for example to quintuple in 20 years.3 and 2. then c ≈ 51/20 = 1. with further benefits of realism. As shown above.) By choice of the parameter c as being respectively greater than or less than 1. Thus the Gompertz force-of-mortality model is the special case with A = 0. the figure of c was found to be roughly 1.2: for middle and higher ages in the simulated illustrative life table of Table 1.) Note that in any case the Gompertz-Makeham force of mortality is strictly convex (i. The Gompertz-Makeham family could be enriched still further. c > 1.1 and 2. has strictly positive second derivative) when B > 0 and c = 1. is called a bathtub shape and requires new survival models. the failure models in common statistical and reliability usage either have increasing force of mortality functions or decreasing force of mortality.. which corresponds roughly to US male mortality of around 1960.e.09. seen clearly in Figure 2. a simple modification of it does. one can arrange that the force-of-mortality curve either be increasing or decreasing. This pattern of initial decrease. While the standard form of this model does not accommodate a bathtub shape for death-rates. Example (v). INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY late middle age. the additive constant A by Makeham. (The Bcy term was proposed by Gompertz. with 0 < A < B. then it is easy to check that µ(y) = A + B cy + Dy has a bathtub shape.

The models fitted all assumed that S(40) = 0. 0.10) to extrapolate the 1959 life-table death-rates to older ages. The previous discussion about bathtub-shaped force of mortality functions should have made it clear that none of the analytical models presented could give a good fit at all ages. Thus.04). Figure 2. but that the lognormal and Makeham families are quite different. clearly the Gompertz agrees most closely with the plotted points for 1959 US male mortality.1 Comparison of Forces of Mortality What does it mean to say that one lifetime.5) and probability 0.e.925)..04 of surviving to age 90. FORCE OF MORTALITY & ANALYTICAL MODELS 55 pected lifetime is 75 years. t t − ln S1(t) = 0 µ1 (x)dx = 0 κ µ2 (x)dx = κ(− ln S2 (t)) and therefore that S1 (t) = (S2 (t))κ .0885 used in formula (2. 0.2.00346.e.2. has hazard (i. Of the four fitted curves. Parameters for all models were determined from the requirements of median age 72 at death (equal by definition to the value tm for which S(tm ) = 0. 0. with associated survival function S1(t).5 shows survival curves from several analytical models plotted on the same axes as the 1959 US male life-table data from which Table 1.0918. 2. (90.2.925 and that for lives aged 40.5). This restriction has the effect of reducing the number of free parameters in each family of examples by 1. One can see from these pictures that the Gamma and Weibull families contain many very similar shapes for force-of-mortality curves. all t ≥ 0 . T − 40 followed the indicated analytical form. i. c = 1.1 was simulated. force of mortality) µ1 (t) which is a constant multiple κ at all ages of the force of mortality µ2 (t) for a second lifetime with survival function S2 (t) ? It means that the cumulative hazard functions are proportional. but the Figure indicates the rather good fit which can be achieved to realistic life-table data at ages 40 and above. all four plotted survival curves have been designed to pass through the three points (40. the latter of which is close to the value 1. (72. The Gompertz curve has parameters B = 0.

025 0.020 alpha=1 alpha=0.015 Hazard 0.56 CHAPTER 2.0 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.010 Hazard 0.lambda) 0.7 alpha=1.3: Force of Mortality Functions for Weibull and Gamma Probability Densities. .7 beta=1.015 0.lambda) 0.0 0 0.3 beta=1.005 0.020 0.005 20 40 60 80 100 Age (years) Age (years) Figure 2. the parameters are fixed in such a way that the expected survival time is 75 years. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY Weibull(alpha.025 Gamma(beta. In each case.6 alpha=2 beta=1 beta=0.6 beta=2 0.010 0.3 alpha=1.

025 Makeham(A.2 sigma=0.002 A=0. B=0.B.0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Age (years) Age (years) Figure 2.2.c) 0. FORCE OF MORTALITY & ANALYTICAL MODELS 57 Lognormal(mu. In each case.2.4 sigma=0.sigma^2) 0.020 A=0. c=1. c=1. c=1.022 0.007 A=0.6 sigma=1.003. the parameters are fixed in such a way that the expected survival time is 75 years.014 A=0.0018.015 0. c=1.020 0.0041.0041.010 0.4: Force of Mortality Functions for Lognormal and Makeham Densities.0070.005 sigma=0.B=0.005 0.0010. B=0. . B=0.6 sigma=2 0.025 0.010 Hazard 0.015 Hazard 0.0 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.0022.0021.

04 respectively at t = 40. Gamma.953e-6) Gamma(14.74. 72.246^2) Weibull(3.2 Plotted points from US 1959 male life-table 0.925.5.8 0. The four analytical survival curves — Lognormal.925 · Stheor (t − 40)).4383) Gompertz(3. 0.5: Theoretical survival curves. the plotted curve is (t. 90. 0. Weibull. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY Plots of Theoretical Survival Curves ••••• ••• ••• •• •• •• •• • • • • Lognormal(3. 0. 0. for ages 40 and above. .0 40 50 60 70 Age (years) 80 90 100 Figure 2.6 • Survival Probability • • • • • • 0.4 • • • • • • 0.0918) • • • • 0. so if Stheor (t) denotes the theoretical survival curve with indicated parameters. plotted as lines for comparison with 1959 US male life-table survival probabilities plotted as points.491.58 CHAPTER 2.653. and Gompertz — are taken as models for age-at-death minus 40. .46e-3. 1. 1. The parameters of each analytical model were determined so that the plotted probabilities would be 0.

Z2 = 0) = 0.4493 for those with Z2 = 1 versus those with Z2 = 0. related to the fractions of the surviving population at various ages in each of the four population subgroups.35 and that for a life aged x and all t > 0. Px (Z1 = 0. Z2 = z2 ) = exp(−2. This model is called the (Cox) Proportional-Hazards model and is treated at length in books on survival data analysis (Cox and Oakes 1984.7 = 2.8 = 0. Example.5e0.0085 1 − exp(−2. The effect on age-specific death-rates is approximately the same. and is multiplied by e−0.7z1 −.8z2 ) t/10000 so that the force of mortality at all ages is multiplied by e0. Z2 = 0) versus those in the group with (Z1 = 0. by a regression model ln(κ) = β ·Z ) on other measured variables (covariates) Z.5 e0. 1.014. Z1 = z1 .7((212 − 202 )/20000) = 2. For example. P r(T ≥ x + t | T ≥ x.7 = 2. Px (Z1 = Z2 = 1) = 0. Suppose that these four combinations have respective conditional probabilities for lives aged x (or relative frequencies in the general population aged x) Px (Z1 = Z2 = 0) = 0. Direct calculation shows for example that the ratio of age-specific death rate at age x+20 for individuals in the group with (Z1 = 1.7z1−. Z2 = 1 | T ≥ x + 30) .. but rather 1 − exp(−2. Consider a setting in which there are four subpopulations of the general population.8z2 t2 /20000) It can be seen from the conditional survival function just displayed that the forces of mortality at ages greater than x are µ(x + t) = (2.2.3 .5((212 − 202 )/20000) Various calculations. categorized by the four combinations of values of two binary covariates Z1 .5 e0.2 Px (Z1 = 1. to find P r(Z1 = 0.0138 for individuals with Z1 = 1 versus those with Z1 = 0. FORCE OF MORTALITY & ANALYTICAL MODELS 59 This remark is of especial interest in biostatistics and epidemiology when the factor κ is allowed to depend (e. Z2 = 0) is not precisely e0.g. Z2 = 1) = 0.2. can be performed easily . Kalbfleisch and Prentice 1980) or biostatistics (Lee 1992). Z2 = 0.15 .

i.. Hogg and Tanis 1997. occupations. while differences 302 ) = 0. .2162 0.8 and similarly P r(T ≥ x + 30 | T ≥ x) = 0. by definition of conditional probabilities (restricted to the cohort of lives aged x).35 exp(−2. for example by increasing premiums in response to recent claims or by taking location into account. the measured variables Z = (Z1 .60 CHAPTER 2.. the objective of such detailed models of covariate effects on survival can be: to correct for incidental individual differences in assessing the effectiveness of a treatment. categorical variables for risky life-styles.8795 20000 20000 Thus. The multiplicative effects of various risk-factors on age-specific death rates are often highlighted in the news media.e.5e−0. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY we proceed in several steps (which correspond to an application of Bayes’ rule.5. In particular. percent caloric intake from fat.3 exp(−2.7 P r(Z1 = 0.1901 + 302 302 ) + 0.8 ) = 0.15 exp(−2. .2 exp(−2. sec.1901 20000 . . or exposure to a toxic chemical). 2. or exposures might be used in risk-rating. in individualizing insurance premiums. it can be politically sensitive in a life-insurance and pension context. or indicator of type of treatment or intervention. to create a prognostic index for use in diagnosis and choice of treatment. or Devore 2007): P r(T ≥ x+30. high blood pressure. . viz. Z1 = 0 Z2 = 1| T ≥ x) = 0. quantitative measurement of a risk-factor (dietary cholesterol. In these fields. specific electrocardiogram anomaly). taking ratios of the last two displayed quantities yields + 0. Z2 = 1 | T ≥ x + 30) = 0.7−0. While risk-rating is used routinely in casualty and property insurance underwriting. diabetes. In an insurance setting.5e0.5 ∗ e0. Zp ) recorded for each individual in a survival study might be: indicator of a specific disease or diagnostic condition (e. or to ascertain the possible risks and benefits for health and survival from various sorts of life-style interventions. relative weight-to-height index.1901 = 0.5(302 /20000)) + 0.g.8795 2 In biostatistics and epidemiology.

for 20 ≤ t ≤ 80 and 0 for other values of t. i.e. (The random variable Z in this problem is a particular type of age-at-death variable T conditioned on being ≥ 20. such as employee groups or voluntary organizations.3 Exercise Set 2 (1).4 − Z/50) dollars at the exact date of his death if this occurs between ages 20 and 70. by the nominal interest rate of e0. compounded annually. Find (1 + r)2n .3. then what is the expected present value of the payment under the insurance contract ? . All life insurers must be conscious of the extent to which their policyholders as a group differ from the general population with respect to mortality. Suppose that an individual aged 20 has random lifetime Z with continuous density function f( t) = 1 360 1+ t 10 . EXERCISE SET 2 61 in mortality by gender and to some extgent by family health history can be used in calculating insurance and annuity premiums. See Chapter 6. (2). and regression-type models like the Cox proportional-hazards model may be useful in quantifying group mortality differences when the special-group mortality tables are not based upon large enough cohorts for long enough times to be fully reliable.2. it is currently illegal to use racial differences and differences based on genetic testing in this way.08 − 1 per year) to calculate the present value of the payment. Insurers can collect special mortality tables on special groups. as can certain lifestyle factors like smoking.) (a) If this individual has a contract with your company that you must pay his heirs 106 · (1. 2. The sum of the present value of $1 paid at the end of n years and $1 paid at the end of 2n years is $1. for discussion about the modification of insurance premiums for select groups.08 · (Z − 20)). where r = annual interest rate. then what is the expected payment ? (b) If the value of the death-payment described in (a) should properly be discounted by the factor exp(−0. Section 4.

give only the values for ages which are multiples of 10.62 CHAPTER 2.) (7). based on integer ages up to 70 and cohort-size (= radix ) l0 = 105 . What does this imply about S(x) ? (Give as much information about S as you can. for every real ≥ 0. (5). (4).1. is (17 − 10 ln(5)) · 10−4 = 9. (a) The mortality pattern of a certain population may be described as follows: out of every 98 lives born together. survival function based on a cohort life table) has the property that 1 px = γ · (γ 2)x for some fixed γ between 0 and 1.01 · t for 0 ≤ t ≤ 3. and find the probability that a life aged 30 will survive to attain age 35. then find the equivalent single effective rate of interest for money invested at interest throughout the interval 0 ≤ t ≤ 3.1 · 10−5 > 0. If you do the arithmetic using hand-calculators and/or tables. one dies annually until there are no survivors.B in the Illustration on mortgage refinancing at the end of Section 2.) (b) Find the probability that the random variable T exceeds 30. 10% of the lives aged x die before reaching age x+1 . . (Give selected numerical entries.. Find a simple function that can be used as S(x) for this population. Hint: find a closed-form formula for S(t) = P (T ≥ t). and find the probability that a life aged 30 will survive to attain age 35.5t + 2et/20 . INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY (3).0 − 0. Suppose that a survival distribution (i. given that it exceeds 3. t>0 This is a legitimate hazard rate of Gompertz-Makeham type since its minimum. (b) Suppose that for x between ages 12 and 40 in a certain population.e. Suppose that a continuous random variable T has hazard rate function (= force of mortality) h(t) = 10−3 · 7. preferably calculated by means of a little computer program. (a) Construct a cohort life-table with h(t) as “force of mortality”. Do the Mortgage-Refinancing exercise given as Exercise 2. If the instantaneous interest rate is r(t) = 0. Find a simple function that can be used as S(x) for this population. (6). which occurs at t = 20 ln(5).

pY +1 = (1 + r) pY t t where k is a function of Y alone and A. A survival function has the form S(t) = max(0. (12). (a) Find the level payment amount P .3. beginning with Y = 1950.e.e. and if l35 = 44. If a mortality c+t table is derived from this survivalfunction with a radix l0 of 100. then derive a general expression for k(Y ). If k(1950) = 1. 000 : (i) What is the terminal age of the table ? (ii) What is the probability of surviving from birth to age 60 ? (iii) What is the probability of a person at exact age 10 dying between exact ages 30 and 45 ? (11). For each Y and for all ages t µY (t) = A · k(Y ) + B ct . ) (10). c−t ). to be repaid in level payments every six months (twice yearly). (b) What is the present value of the payments you will make if you skip the 2nd and 4th payments ? (You may express your answer in terms of P . The mortality functions for the various tables are denoted by the appropriate superscript Y . (9). A standard mortality table follows Makeham’s Law with force of mortality µ(t) = A + B ct at all ages t A separate.2. i(4) ) is 8% for the first 5 years. higher-risk mortality table also follows Makeham’s Law with . r are constants (with r > 0). EXERCISE SET 2 63 (8). Suppose that you borrow $1000 for 3 years at 6% effective rate. and if the nominal rate of discount compounded semiannually (m = 2) is 6% for the third 5 year interval. the interval ranging from time 5 to 10). Find the accumulated value of $100 at the end of 15 years if the nominal interest rate compounded quarterly (i. A separate life table has been constructed for each calendar year of birth. Y . B. if the effective rate of discount is 7% for the second 5 year interval (i..000 at age 0.

(14). Calculate d(12).06). INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY µ∗ (t) = A∗ + B ∗ ct at all ages t with the same constant c. 000 30-year coupon bond with nominal 6% semi-annual coupon (n = 30. B. m − 2. 15 years after issue. 000 at effective annual rate 7% from a bank. the effective interest rate will be ieff = 0. Find the outstanding balance at the 6th anniversary of the loan. figured at 7% ). . (16). the homeowner misses the next two (i. 000. A deposit of 300 is made into a fund at time t = 0. A 6% ‘zero-coupon’ 30-year bond was issued exactly 15 years ago for a face amount of $10. if for the next 15 years. the accumulated value of the fund is 574. Calculate the price at which you would sell a $10. if for the next 15 years. agreeing to repay by 30 equal yearly payments beginning one year from the time of the loan. Calculate the fair price at which you would sell this zero-coupon bond. interest is credited according to the force of interest δt = 1/(3t + 3). i(m) = 0. This bond contractually entitles the bearer to receive 30 years after the issue date the amount accumulated at i = ieff = 0. the effective interest rate for valuation is ieff = 0.64 force of mortality CHAPTER 2.07. if paid as a lump sum at time 6. (13). As of time t = 7. 000 at time 0. From t = 3 to t = 7. A homeowner borrows $100. (a) How much is each payment ? (b) Suppose that after paying the first 3 yearly payments. then express each of A∗ and B ∗ in terms of A.e. (15). This is the amount which.07. The fund pays interest for the first three years at a nominal monthly rate d(12) of discount. c. pays nothing on the 4th and 5th anniversaries of the loan).06 on the face amount. has present value together with the amounts already paid of $100. If for all starting ages the probability of surviving 6 years according to the higher-risk table is equal to the probability of surviving 9 years according to the standard table.

3 is fixed and where m was determined from it by the requirement that the expectation of survival time was 75 years. 000 30-year loan with halfyearly payments (m = 2) start in six months from the time of borrowing.3 is the lognormal(m.4. (b) 20 years. (19).3 if the median survival time is fixed at 72 years. How large must a half-yearly payment be in order that the stream of payments starting immediately be equivalent (in present value terms) at 6% interest to a lump-sum payment of $5000. Now answer the same question as in (17) about the amount of the final lump-sum payment required.04. 2. (20).4 Worked Examples Example 1. or (c) forever ? . only in continuing accrued interest on the amounts of the missed payments. and find the force of mortality for this lognormal at 65 years. Suppose that the missed payments in (17) actually result in late fees of $200 each of which is added to the balance at the time(s) of missed payments. (b) Answer the same questions if the city knows it can earn 6% on the money it deposits into its sinking fund. σ 2) hazard intensity where σ = 1. Now find the value m associated with σ = 1. and find the reserve. (a) Find the amount of the level payment the city must make into the sinking fund if the interest it earns on that fund is 5%.2. from its tax revenue. if the payment-stream is to last (a) 10 years. the missed payments did not result in any additional fees or charges. in the sinking fund after 6 years. Suppose that the borrower of a $100. in order to pay off the loan completely ? (18). In Problem (17). WORKED EXAMPLES 65 (17). A small city issues a bond for twenty million dollars for ten years at 5% nominal half-yearly interest (m = 2) and creates a sinking fund into which it will make twice-yearly deposits (m = 2). in addition to his final payment. What lump-sum payment did the borrower have to make at the end of 30 years. One of the curves plotted in the first part of Figure 2. or accumulated balance. and with nominal interest rate i(2) = . has made all payments except for two that he skipped. the 23’rd and 56’th payments.

. . is $143.57/(1 − 1. Observe first of all that the specified payment-stream is exactly the same as a stream of payments of 1/m at times 0. .62. Since this payment-stream starting at 0 (m/2) is exactly one-half that of the stream whose present value is ¨ ∞ . Thus the present value has the second expression (m) (m/2) a∞ − (1/2) a∞ ¨ ¨ Equating the two expressions allows us to conclude that (1/2) a∞ ¨ (m/2) (m) = a∞ ¨ (1 + v 1/m) Substituting this into the first of the displayed present-value expressions. respectively with n = 10 and 20. This example illustrates the general methods enunciated at the beginning of Section 2. forever.11. a first a present value expression is ¨ v 1/m (1/2) a∞ (m/2) A second way of looking at the payment-stream at odd multiples of 1/m is as the perpetuity-due payment stream ( 1/m at times k/m for all k ≥ 0) minus the payment-stream discussed above of amounts 1/m at times 2k/m for all nonnegative integers k. $208. 4/m. Assume m is divisible by 2. 5/m. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY If the payment size is P . .06−n ) = 143.57. Example 2.02871. 3/m.06−n )/d(2) a √ = 2(1 − 1/ 1. shows that that the present value requested in the Example is 1 d(m) · 1 v 1/m 1 = (m) = (m) −1/m 1/m 1 +v d (v + 1) d (2 + i(m)/m) and this answer is valid whether or not m is even. deferred by a time 1/m.1. . .06−n ) So the answer to part (c).02871)/(1 − 1. For parts (a) and (b). . . then the balance equation is 5000 = 2 P · ¨ n = 2 P (1 − 1. and using the simple expression 1/d(m) for the present value of the perpetuitydue. the answers are $325.06) = 2 · 0. in which n = ∞. the result is (2) Since d(2) P = (5000 · 0.66 CHAPTER 2. and use either one to give a simple formula. Express in two different ways the present value of the perpetuity of payments 1/m at times 1/m. 2/m.

06.2. 2% for 2 years.. the present values are calculated as follows: For 4-year 4% loan: $9645.08.4.02 For 2-year 2% loan: $9642.g. 3% for 3 years. Therefore. Next. and give numerical answers for present values calculated at 6% and 8%. The monthly payments for an n-year loan at interest-rate i is 10000/ (12) (12 an ) = (10000/12) d(12) /(1 − (1 + i)−n ). using interest-rate r = 0. 000.73 For 2-year 2% loan: $9475.72 For 3-year 3% loan: $9349. or a cash discount of $500 ? Show how the answer depends upon the interest rate with respect to which you calculate present values. the present value ¨ at interest-rate r of the n-year monthly payment-stream is 10000 · 1 − (1 + i)−1/12 1 − (1 + r)−n · 1 − (1 + r)−1/12 1 − (1 + i)−n Using interest-rate r = 0. (The cash discount is now the least attractive option.) Example 4. Assume that all loans have monthly payments paid at the beginning of the month (e.77 For 3-year 3% loan: $9599. Would you rather have an interest rate of 4% for 4 years.5|30 − y|) Then find analytical expressions for the survival probabilities S(y) for exact . Suppose that you are negotiating a car-loan of $10. the present values of the various options are: For 4-year 4% loan: $9314. Suppose that the force of mortality µ(y) is specified for exact ages y ranging from 5 to 55 as µ(y) = 10−4 · (20 − 0.68 so that the most attractive option in this case is the 4-year loan. the 4 year loan has 48 monthly payments paid at time 0 and at the ends of 47 succeeding months). WORKED EXAMPLES 67 Example 3.89 so that the most attractive option is the cash discount (which would make the present value of the debt owed to be $9500).

002 + 2. . . 54.9372 exp − .5 + x) and second. in the case x = 5.97 e−0. . INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY ages y in the same range.97.5(30 − z)) dz = 0. 29. in the case x = 30.93722. .68 CHAPTER 2.5 · 10−5 (y − 30)2 The death-rates qx therefore have two different analytical forms: first.25(y 2 −25)) so that S(30) = 0. . .034375 = 0. qx = S(x + 1)/S(x) = exp − 5 · 10−5 (10. qx = exp − . . . First for 5 ≤ y ≤ 30. as follows.97 exp −10−4 (5(y−5)+0. and for 30 ≤ y ≤ 55 y S(y) = S(30) exp − 10−4 30 (20 + 0. The key formulas connecting force of mortality and survival function are here applied separately on the age-intervals [5. . y S(y) = S(5) exp(− 5 µ(z) dz) = 0.002(y − 30) + 2. . .5 · 10−5 (2(x − 30) + 1) . . 30] and [30. 55]. and for the (one-year) death-rates qx for integer ages x = 5. 54. assuming that S(5) = 0.

a ¨∞ (m) = = a∞ ¨ an ¨ − n vn p. 34 1 − vn i(m) 1 − vn d(m) pp. 35 1 − vn δ p. USEFUL FORMULAS FROM CHAPTER 2 69 2.5.2. 35–35 (m) an (m) = . 36 a (I (m) ¨)n (m) (m) (m) an ¨ (∞) = an (∞) = an = a∞ (m) = . an ¨ (m) = an = v 1/m ¨ n a (m) p.5 Useful Formulas from Chapter 2 v = 1/(1 + i) p. 35 1 i(m) 1 d(m) p. 38 Loan Amt m ¨n a (m) n-yr m’thly Mortgage Paymt : . 38 ¨ (D(m) a)n (m) = (n + 1 (m) (m) ) an − (I (m)a)n ¨ ¨ m p.

INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY p. ω f (t) = 1 . ω 0≤t≤ω p. Failure Dist. t>0 p. 39 k + : m 1 − v n−k/m 1 − vn p. px = 1px = 1 − qx p. 48 t qy = 1 − tpy p. 52 Expon. 42 S(y + t) = exp − S(y) t n-yr Mortgage Bal.k/m = t py = µ(y + s) ds 0 p. 52 Unif. amt Bn. f (t) = µe−µt . µ(t) = µ . Dist.: S(t) = e−µt . 52 .: S(t) = ω−t .70 CHAPTER 2. 48 qx = 1 qx = dx lx . 49 y S(y) = exp( − 0 µ(t) dt) p. 48 µ(y + t) = ∂ f (y + t) = − ln S(y + t) S(y + t) ∂t p.

Dist. 54 .2. t>0 p. USEFUL FORMULAS FROM CHAPTER 2 71 Weibull. t≥0 Gompertz: µ(t) = Bct .: S(t) = e−λt . t≥0 S(t) = exp −At − B t (c − 1) ln c p. 52 Makeham: µ(t) = A + Bct .5. γ µ(t) = λγtγ−1 .

72 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY .

Finally. This predictability will be used in later chapters to justify consideration of expected present values of contractual payouts to describe an insurer’s liability. 73 . with survival probability px for a life aged x.Chapter 3 More Probability Theory for Life Tables This Chapter introduces several key ideas in Probability Theory which are essential for an understanding of the book’s core actuarial topics in Chapter 4 and 5. The first of these ideas is that survival from one year to the next can be regarded for each member of a population as a coin-toss experiment. so we prepare the ground by presenting background theory and rules of manipulation for expectations of discrete-valued random variables. This point of view also provides a convenient vehicle for conducting computer simulations of population survival experience for large or small life-table populations. approximating and calculating with probabilities and expectations using theoretical models of survival between successive years of age. independently of all other members of the population. we complete our probability background with further material on interpreting. Since the life-table summarizes outcomes on a large number of coin-toss experiments. we study next through limit theorems (law of large numbers and central limit theorem) the high degree of predictability of these outcomes at the population level.

. . N (1 + x) = k=0 N N k N x . . by applying the first assertion with x = y/z and multiplying both sides by z N . . z). . which for each such life has probability t px . The second assertion follows immediately. y. aN ) ∈ {0. . . and since these monomial terms arise only from the combinations (a1. . .74 CHAPTER 3. 1. and adding all of the monomials together. the number lx+t who survive t time-units after age x can be regarded as the number of successes or heads in a large number lx of independent coin-toss trials corresponding to the further survival of each of the lx lives aged x . Consider the two-variable polynomial (y + z)N = (y + z) · (y + z) · · · (y + z) N factors expanded by making all of the different choices of y or z from each of the N factors (y + z). aN ) of {y. . z} choices in which precisely k of the values aj are 1’s and the rest are 0’s. N . The one preliminary mathematical result that the student is assumed to know is the Binomial Theorem stating that (for positive integers N and arbitrary real numbers x. where ai = 1 would mean that y is chosen and ai = 0 would mean that z is chosen in the ith factor. k (y + z) = k=0 N N k y k z N −k Recall that the first of these assertions follows by equating the k th deriviatives of both sides at x = 0. . . . for each k = 0. Now this combinatorial fact is immediately deduced from the Binomial Theorem: since the coefficient N is the total number of monomial terms y k z N −k k which are collected when (y + z)N is expanded as described. . Each combined choice of y or z from the N factors (y + z) can be represented as a sequence (a1. N . This Theorem also has a direct combinatorial consequence. 1}N . PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES 3. . . . in the nontrivial case when z = 0. . multiplying each combination of choices out to get a monomial y j z N −j . an ) ∈ {0. The motivation is that in large life-table populations. where k = 0. . The number of symbol-sequences (a1 . 1}N such N is given. . by that j=1 aj = k .1 Binomial Variables and Limit Theorems This Section develops basic machinery for the theory of random variables which count numbers of successes in large numbers of independent biased coin-tosses.

designated ‘success’ — are called Bernoulli (p) trials. spoken k as ‘N choose k’. . aN ) ∈ {0.3. or sample space for this experiment. we can regard the number lx+t of lives surviving to the (possibly fractional) age x+t as a Binomial random variable with parameters N = lx . if derived from an actual cohort . Since the mechanisms which cause those lives to survive or die can ordinarily be assumed to be acting independently in a probabilistic sense. . This number N .e. the rule by which probabilities are assigned to sets or events A of more than one string a ∈ {0. the probability k which is necessarily assigned to the event of k successes is Pr( k successes in N Bernoulli(p) trials ) = P (X = k) = N k pk (1−p)N −k By virtue of this result. B). 1}N being assigned probability pa (1 − p)N −a . We are particularly interested in the event (denoted [X = k]) that precisely k of the cointosses are heads. there are N such strings. i. we now begin to regard the ideal probabilities S(x + t)/S(x) as true but unobservable probabilities t px = p with which each of the lx lives aged x will survive to age x + t . 1}N is to add the probabilities of all individual strings a ∈ A. k With the notion of Bernoulli trials and the binomial distribution in hand. and since. consists of the strings of N zeroes and ones. is said to have the Binomial distribution with probability mass function pX (k) = N pk (1 − p)N −k . From this point of view. 1}N consisting of all N strings a such that j=1 aj = k. N k 75 The random experiment of interest in this Section consists of a number N of independent tosses of a coin. the random variable X equal to the number of successes in N Bernoulli(p) trials. according to the discussion following probability p (1 − p) the Binomial Theorem above. Such coin-tossing experiments — independently replicated twooutcome experiments with probability p of one of the outcomes.. with probability p of coming up heads each time. where a ≡ N aj . in the subset [X = k] ⊂ {0. . therefore counts all of the ways of choosing k element subsets (the positions j from 1 to N where 1’s occur) out of N objects. with each string a = (a1. Since each such string has the same k N −k . The space of possible headsand-tails configurations. p = t px . Because j=1 of the finite additivity axiom of probabilities (saying that Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) for disjoint events A.1. BINOMIAL VARIABLES & LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS = N (N − 1) · · · (N − k + 1)/ k! . .

We state and prove the result here only in the setting of binomial random variables. is established in the famous Law of Large Numbers. Theorem 3. Law of Large Numbers.1) . called consistency.9.3 how it implies a more general result for finite-valued discrete random variables. a Large Deviation Inequality which is important in its own right but more difficult. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES dataset of size equal to the radix . not depending upon N . sketching in Section 3. > 0. the number N of Bernoulli trials can be chosen so large that Pr | X/N − p | ≥ δ ≤ Proof. 1}N for which j=1 aj = k with |k − Np| ≥ Nδ. . the ratio lx+t /lx is a statistical estimator of the unknown constant t px .76 CHAPTER 3. The good property. the observed ratios lx+t /lx should reliably be very close to the ‘true’ probability t px .1 (Coin-toss Law of Large Numbers) Suppose that X is a Binomial (N. denoting the number of successes in N Bernoulli (p) trials. . For arbitrarily small fixed δ. when l0 is large. common sense and experience suggest that. is stated and proved in the Appendix to this Chapter. A more precise quantitative inequality concerning binomial probabilities. Section 3. Since the event [ |X/N − p| ≥ δ ] = [ |X − Np| ≥ Nδ ] is the union of the disjoint events [X = k] for |k − Np| ≥ Nδ. In other words. of this estimator to be close with very large probability (based upon large life-table size) to the heads-probability it estimates. p) random variable. . aN ) ∈ {0. the observed life-table counts lx would be treated as random data which reflect but do not define the underlying probabilities x p0 = S(x) of survival to age x. which in turn consist N of all outcome-strings (a1. However. . the subset of the binomial probability mass function values pX (k) with |k − Np| ≥ Nδ are summed to provide Pr(|X/N −p| ≥ δ) = k: |k−N p|≥N δ Pr(X = k) = k: |k−N p|≥N δ N k pk (1−p)N −k This summation is term-by-term less than or equal to N k p (1−p) k N −k k: |k−N p|≥N δ (k − Np)2 ≤ (Nδ)2 N k=0 N k pk (1−p)N −k (k − Np)2 (Nδ)2 (3. and therefore the other lifecounts lx for moderate values x are also large.

it is easy to check via the equality (k − Np)2 = k(k − 1) − (2Np − 1)k + (Np)2 . To see why more .1 Probability Bounds & Approximations Theorem 3. that N (k − Np)2 k=0 N k pk (1 − p)N −k = N p(1 − p) Substituting this final relation into (3. and simplifying algebraically.1. becomes with the aid of the Binomial Theorem N −1 N −1 l = Np p (1 − p)N −1−l = Np l l=0 and similarly (now with j = k − 2) N k=0 N k(k − 1) k N p (1 − p) k N −k = k=2 p2 N (N − 1) (N − 2)! k−2 p (1 − p)N −k (k − 2)!(N − k)! N −2 = N (N − 1)p 2 j=0 N −2 j p (1 − p)N −2−j = N (N − 1) p2 j Putting together the last calculations. A much more accurate upper bound in given in Theorem 3.1. 2 3.3. However.1 provides only a very crude upper bound to the probability with which |X/N − p| ≥ δ.2 of the Appendix to the Chapter (Sec. BINOMIAL VARIABLES & LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS 77 where we have made the second some larger by including more nonnegative terms in it.9). direct summation shows N k k=0 N k N pk (1 − p)N −k = k=1 kp N · (N − 1)! pk−1 (1 − p)N −k k(k − 1)!(N − k)! which after replacing k − 1 by l.1) now shows that Pr(|X/N − p| ≥ δ) ≤ p(1 − p) Np(1 − p) = 2 (Nδ) Nδ 2 The assertion of the Theorem now follows by taking N ≥ (p(1 − p)/( δ 2 ). 3.

30). The exact Binomial(1000. and δ = 0. the normal approximation (3. p. 70] ∪ [130. the refined form of the DeMoivre-Laplace Theorem given in the Feller (1957. Pr(X > b) 1−Φ b − Np Np(1 − p) converges to 1 if the ‘deviation’ ratios (b − Np)/ Np(1 − p) and (a − Np)/ Np(1 − p) are of smaller order than N −1/6 when N gets large. more than fifty times larger ! On the other hand. N] = [0. with N = 1000. 1957. 172) reference says that each of the ratios of probabilities Pr(X < a) Φ a − Np Np(1 − p) . pp. is 0. Much closer approximations to the exact probabilities for Binomial(N.03)2 ) = 0. as n → ∞. 1000] is 0. To give a feeling for the probabilities with which observed life-table ratios reflect the true underlying survival-rates. p) probability of |X/N − p| ≤ δ was 1 − .2) where Φ is the standard normal distribution function given explicitly in integral form in formula (3. p) random variables to fall in intervals around Np are obtained from the Normal distribution approximation Pr(a ≤ X ≤ b) ≈ Φ b − Np Np(1 − p) −Φ a − Np Np(1 − p) (3.99808. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES accurate bounds are needed. as in formula (3.3) is 0. 0.99843. In the example discussed above.78 CHAPTER 3. p = 0.3) for the true binomial probability Pr(|X/N − p| ≤ δ).2) converges to 0 when p remains fixed.1. consider the case where N = 1000.1) probability of (number of successes in N Bernoulli(p) trials falling in) [0. where the exact Binomial(N. 1.1 .1.2.001916.03.1. the upper bound provided by the inequalities of Theorem 3. p = 0.1)(.29) below. This result suggests the approximation Normal approx. = Φ Nδ Np(1 − p) − Φ −Nδ Np(1 − p) (3. N(p − δ)] ∪ [N (p + δ). 168-73).9)/(1000(. δ = 0. Moreover. while the upper bound established in the proof of Theorem 3.0198.00192 = .and right-hand sides of (3. This approximation is the DeMoivreLaplace Central Limit Theorem (Feller vol.03.1 is (. we have collected in Table 3. which says precisely that the difference between the left.

9973 . within factor 1 ± . are still noticeably smaller than the actual values.30) of Section 3.9120 .003 .9995 . the normal approximations in the final column of Table 3.2 and from (3.9973 . . BINOMIAL VARIABLES & LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS 79 Table 3. k. lx.75 5 0. k px which might realistically arise in an insurance-company lifetable.008 .31).94 10 0. while also often close to 1.020 . 5.1 .9188 Normal approx. 6) with which various Binomial(lx.050 .1. but also show that the lower bounds.1: Probabilities (in col.9969 .9778 . Cohort n = lx 10000 10000 10000 1000 10000 1000 10000 1000 Age x 40 40 40 40 70 70 70 70 Time Prob. . Columns 6 and 7 in the Table show how likely the life-table ratios are to be close to the ‘theoretical’ values.9972 . In Table 3.020 . k p = k px 3 0. not smaller as they should be for applicability of (3.9952 .9877 .9985 .3)) probabilities with which the ratios lx+k /lx agree with k px to within a fraction of the latter.9886 various exact binomial probabilities and their counterparts from the approximation of (3.030 . k px ) random variables lie within a factor 1 ± of their expectations.9.1 are given various combinations of x.9531 .004 .3) to the exact probabilities in column 6.3). or 10 years.9949 .50 Toler.9950 .9938 . The probability experiment determining the size of the surviving cohort lx+k is modelled as the tossing of lx independent coins with common heads-probability k px : then the surviving cohort-size lx+k is viewed as the Binomial(lx .080 Pr. The final column contains the normal approximations based on (3.75 10 0.9863 .3) and the inequality (3.99 5 0.98 10 0. k px ) random variable equal to the number of heads in those coin-tosses. with the true and estimated (from Theorem 3.9760 .94 5 0. Although the deviation-ratios in estimating life-table probabilities are often close to or larger than N −1/6.9886 Lower bound . together with ‘theoretical’ probabilities k px with which these lives will survive for a period of k = 1.30)-(3.50 10 0. together with lower bounds (in Col.9866 .9600 .9938 . The illustration concerns cohorts of lives aged x of various sizes lx.9995 . 7) for these probabilities derived from the largedeviation inequalities (3.9985 . together.3.

We said that if the life-table was representative of a larger population of prospective insureds. Finally.80 CHAPTER 3. The Law of Large Numbers applies equally when the age-x survivors have been sampled by some more complicated method than simply watching a cohort from birth. but they are not very random. where the sizes lx of lives under observation at age x are large but the probabilities px are unknown.28. At the next stage of sophistication. and similarly expectations of functions of life-table death-times were averages over the entire cohort. governing each member of the life-table cohort and of further prospective insureds. . 553). section XVI. A still more refined theorem which justifies this is given by Feller (1972. With the mathematical justification of the Law of Large Numbers. in the realistic data-collection scenarios discussed in Appendix A. Thus. if the size lx of the cohort of surviving lives aged x is large.2 Simulation of Discrete Lifetimes We began by regarding life-table ratios lx /l0 in large cohort life-tables as defining integer-age survival probabilities S(x) = x p0 . p. then we could imagine a newly presented life aged x as being randomly chosen from the life-table cohort itself. the life-table can also be viewed as in Appendix A as an idealized set of data. 3. with each ratio lx+t /lx equal to the relative frequency of success among a set of lx imagined Bernoulli (t px ) trials which Nature performs upon the cohort of lives aged x .7 leading up to formula 7. That is. we come full circle: these relative frequencies are random variables. We motivated the conditional probability ratios in this way. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES below are sensationally close to the correct binomial probabilities in column 6. Although we found the calculus-based formulas for life-table conditional probabilities and expectations to be useful. the later fractions lx+t /lx of survivors at x + t to those at x are extremely likely to lie within a very small tolerance of t px . we began to describe the (conditional) probabilities t px ≡ S(x + t)/S(x) based upon a smooth survival function S(x) as a true but unknown survival distribution. hypothesized to be of one of a number of possible theoretical forms. at that stage they were only ideal approximations of the more detailed but still exact life-table ratios and sums. the life-table ratios lx+1 /lx are highly accurate statistical estimators of the life-table probabilities .

we treated the probabilities px = lx+1 /lx for x = 0.3. The Law of Large Numbers guarantees good agreement. . with counts lx given for integer ages x from 1 through 80. Jordan’s (1967) book on Life Contingencies. 79 as the correct one-year survival probabilities for a second. For ∗ example. l79 was to make the variable lx+1 depend ∗ ∗ ∗ on previously generated l1 .S. . . The implication of Table 3. px ).2.1.2: Illustrative Real and Simulated Life-Table Data Age x 9 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 lx in 1959-61 Life-Table 96801 96051 94542 92705 88178 77083 56384 28814 ∗ Simulated lx 96753 95989 94428 92576 87901 76793 56186 28657 81 To make this discussion more concrete. Using simulated random variables generated in R. the final simulated count of l79 = 28657 lives . as x runs from 1 to 79. . . . . . and then to generate ∗ ∗ lx+1 as though it counted the heads in lx independent coin-tosses with heads-probability px . we illustrate the difference between the entries in a life-table and the entries one would observe as data in a randomly generated life-table of the same size using the initial life-table ratios as exact survival probabilities. . SIMULATION OF DISCRETE LIFETIMES Table 3. with x = 69. . between the ratios lx+10/lx (which here play ∗ the role of the probability 10 px of success in lx Bernoulli trials) and the ∗ ∗ corresponding simulated random relative frequencies of success lx+10/lx . W. with very high probability. . we successively generated. The complete simulated life-table was given earlier as Table 1. That is. the agreement between the initial and randomly generated life-table counts is extremely good. In other words. A comparison of the actual and simulated life-table counts for ages 9 to 79 in 10-year intervals. lx only through lx. White Males 1959-61 reproduced as Table 2 on page 11 of C.2 is unsurprising: with radix as high as 105 . . computer-simulated ∗ cohort life-table with radix l0 = 105 . the mechanism of sim∗ ∗ ∗ ulation of the sequence l0 . is given below. random ∗ ∗ variables lx+1 ∼ Binomial (lx. using this Table with radix l0 = 105 . We used as a source of life-table counts the Mortality Table for U.

pvec[j] = lx(j+1)/lxj .77. .80.70.8 by 300 or more in either direction with probability approximately 0. is: LifTab(lvec)[2:9].82 CHAPTER 3. If lvec denotes a vector of values (l0 . x(1). x(2). . . . lx(K) : LifTabSim = function(lvec) { K = length(lvec)-1 lstar = c(lvec[1].77. . 70. With this success-probability.lstar[j]. (The exact binomial probabilty of the same event is 0.0113. 0. . byrow=T. . 0.lvec[j+1]/lvec[j]) lstar } The syntax to generate a vector like the third column of Table 3.65. lx(2).rep(0. lx(1). . 0. .70.2 from the second. . .85.51103 · 56186 = 28712. LifTabSim(Lvec)[2:6]).85.0115. LifTabSim(Lvec)[2:6]. then the statements K = length(lvec)-1 . . 80. The R code used to generate Table 3.K)) for (j in 1:K) lstar[j+1] = rbinom(1. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES ∗ aged 79 is the success-count in l69 = 56186 Bernoulli trials with successprobability 28814/56384 = . 0.65. 0.). ncol=5. pvec = lvec[2:(K+1)]/lvec[1:K] create the vector of hypothetical survival probabilities.3) says that the simulated count l79 will differ from .4) Lvec = 1000*cumprod(c(1. then we can simulate twice. where the integer ages 0. lx(K)) of numbers of surviving lives in a cohort life-table with radix l0 . As a further example of such a simulation. 0. independently and output in R the numbers of surviving lives at these ages. x(K) are not necessarily evenly spaced. the nor∗ mal approximation (3. 60. K − 1.51103. . 0. . j = 0. . as follows: pvec = c(0.10). and here is a small function to generate the (K + 1)-vector ∗ tt lstar consisting of l0 ≡ l0 together with the output simulated values ∗ lx(1).4 for x = 40.pvec)) matrix(c(seq(40. nrow=4. . pvec. suppose that 1000 individuals aged 40 have successive probabilities 10px = 0. where lvec consists of the radix l0 = 105 concatenated with column 2.2 is very simple. . 50. 0.

"10_p_x". (a).77 0. .00 450.00 80.0 344. What is the spread between the smallest and largest number surviving at each age across your 10 simulations ? (b).3. if the underlying life-table probabilities were unknown.00 50. we can see that the variability in the sim∗ ulated numbers lx is considerable for l0 of 1000 or less. what is your best estimate of the probability 20p40 ? .7 0. 80.00 662.65 0.00 60.4] [.0 83 From small experiments like this. 50.00 483. Regarding your 10 sets of simulated numbers of survivors as independent datasets.0 10_p_x 0.0 296.0 Sim#2 l_x 854. what would be your best estimate of the probability 20 p40 ? (c).3] [.0 70.4 Sim#1 l_x 842.2] [.5] Ages 40. With the same probabilities 10px use R to simulate 10 times independently the numbers of survivors at ages 40. SIMULATION OF DISCRETE LIFETIMES dimnames=list(c("Ages".85 0. Combining the 10 simulated datasets you generated in (b).00 638. Exercise 3."Sim#1 l_x". .00 129.A.2. "Sim#2 l_x"). .1] [.00 133. . NULL)) [.

and let c(·) be a real-valued (nonrandom) cost function such that c(Z) represents an economically meaningful cost incurred when the random variable value Z is given. think for example of Z as the unforeseeable future damage or liability upon the basis of which an insurer has to pay some scheduled claim amount c(Z) to fulfill a specific property or liability insurance policy. i. It follows that the average costs c(Zj ) over the N . P (Zj = zi | Z1 = b1. . . in which the j th policyholder is said to result in a ‘success’ if he sustains a damage amount equal to z . zm }. and to result in a ‘failure’ otherwise. c(ZN ). . Returning to a general discussion. . PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES 3. . These probabilities pZ (z) must be positive numbers which summed over all possible values z add to 1. zm . . . . . . The Law of Large Numbers (Theorem 3. so that for all j. . In a large population of N independent policyholders. . and b1.84 CHAPTER 3. . . . applied as above. . . bj−1 . N and costs c(Z1 ). . . Here independent means that the mechanism causing different individual Zj values is such that information about the values Z1 .7) for these Bernoulli trials says that the number out of these N policyholders who do sustain damage z is for large N extremely likely to differ by no more than δN from N pZ (z). each governed by the same probabilities pZ (·) of liability occurrences. . j = 1. .3 Expectation of Discrete Random Variables The Binomial random variables discussed in this Chapter are examples of so-called discrete random variables. with a corresponding list of probabilities or probability mass function values pZ (z) with which each of those possible outcomes occur. . . Zj−1 does not change the (conditional) probabilities with which Zj takes on its values. Suppose that a large number N of independent individuals give rise to respective values Zj . . The Law of Large Numbers says that we can have a frequentist operational interpretation of each of the probabilities pZ (z) with which a claim of size c(z) is presented. that is. . for each fixed damage-amount z we can imagine a series of N Bernoulli (pZ (z)) trials. In an insurance context. suppose that Z is a discrete random variable with a finite list of possible values z1 . where k ranges over {z1. random variables Z with a discrete (usually finite) list of possible outcomes z. says that out of the large number N of individuals it is extremely likely that approximately pZ (k) · N will have their Z variable values equal to k. . Zj−1 = bj−1 ) = pZ (zi) Then the Law of Large Numbers. . .

.3).3. Since P ([T ] = k) = S(k) − S(k + 1). .4) yields ω−1 E(g(T )) = E(g([T ]) = k=0 g(k) (S(k) − S(k + 1)) k+1 k (3. This expectation was interpreted earlier as the average cost over all members of the specified life-table cohort.4) to the . Now the expectation can be verified to coincide with the life-table average previously given. evaluating the discrete conditional expectation given T ≥ x means applying the formula (3. N : Zj = zi } — is approximately given by m m N −1 i=1 c(zi ) · (N pZ (zi )) = i=1 c(zi ) pZ (zi ) In other words. becomes ω−1 k+1 ω−1 k+1 f (t) dt and [t] = k for ω g(k) k=0 k f (t) dt = k=0 k g([t]) f (t) dt = 0 g([t]) f (t) dt agreeing precisely with formula (1.3. the Law of Large Numbers implies that the average cost per trial among the N independent trials resulting in random variable values Zj and corresponding costs c(Zj ) has a well-defined approximate (actually. Similarly. . the general expectation formula (3. a limiting) value for very large N m Expectation of cost = E(c(Z)) = i=1 c(zi) pZ (zi ) (3. consider the expected value of a cost-function g(T ) of a lifetime random variable which is assumed to depend on T only through the function g([T ]) of the integer part of T . after replacing S(k) − S(k + 1) = k ≤ t < k + 1.5) which. .4) As an application of the formula for expectation of a discrete random variable. EXPECTATION OF DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES independent individuals — which can be expressed exactly as N m 85 N −1 j=1 c(Zj ) = N −1 i=1 c(zi ) · #{j = 1. if the probabilities S(j) in the following expression are replaced by the life-table estimators lj /l0 .

the expressions require knowledge only of the probabilities S(y) of survival for whole-year or integer ages y.) Then the conditional expectation is ω−1 E(g([T ]) | T ≥ x) = k=x S(k) − S(k + 1) g(k) = S(x) ω−1 k+1 k ω−1 k=x g(k) S(x) ω k+1 f (t) dt k or E(g([T ] | T ≥ x) = k=x g([t]) f (t) dt = S(x) g([t]) 0 f (t) ) dt S(x agreeing precisely with formula (1. for E(g([T ]) | T ≥ x). and express S(k) − S(k + 1) S(x + j) S(x + j + 1 = 1− S(x) S(x) S(x + j) Then ω−1 = j px (1 − px+j ) E(g([T ]) | T ≥ x) = k=x S(k) − S(k + 1) g(k) = S(x) ω−x−1 j px j=0 (1−px+j ) g(x+j) (3. The preceding discussion shows that expectations or conditional expectations of functions of whole-year ages can equivalently be calculated using the expectation formulas for discrete or continuous random variables. In the discrete case. There is an analogy in the continuous-variable case. with approximate probability-weights fZ (z)dz. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES function c(Z) = g(Z) of the discrete random variable Z = [T ] using the conditional probability mass function P (Z = k) = P ([T ] = k | T ≥ x) = (S(k) − S(k + 1))/S(x) for all integers k ≥ x (and with probability 0 assigned to all integers k < x. .5). in the preceding (discrete-version) formula. Indeed. namely c(z) f (z) dz. In this case. where fZ (z) is a nonnegative density function integrating to 1. z + dz] are given by fZ (z)dz. let k ≥ x be replaced by k = x + j. in this discussion) which can be incurred in each trial.86 CHAPTER 3. however. the weighted average of cost-function values c(z) which arise when Z ∈ [z. weighted by the probabilities with which they occur. where Z would be a random variable whose approximate probabilities of falling in tiny intervals [z. is written as a limit of sums or an integral. z + dz].6) Just as we did in the context of expectations of functions of the lifetable waiting-time random variable T . we can interpret the Expectation as a weighted average of values (costs.

. then for each δ > 0.8) We do not give any further proof here. . but the motivating arguments given. . together with straightforward manipulations using the result of Theorem 3. First. . .7) where. .1 Rules for Manipulating Expectations We have separately defined expectation for continuous and discrete random variables. . we treated the expectation of a specified function g(T ) of a lifetime random variable governed by the survival function S(x) of a cohort life-table. The discrete case was handled more conventionally. EXPECTATION OF DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES 87 3.3. P (Zk ≤ r | Z1 = z1 . In the continuous case. where δ > 0 is an arbitrarily small number not depending upon n. . . are independent random variables. . . . . . has a value which with very high probability differs from n·p by an amount smaller than δn. E(c(Z1 )) = z∈S c(z) P (Z1 = z) (3. Zk−1 = zk−1 ) = P (Z1 ≤ r) regardless of the precise values z1 . . . in the sense that for all k ≥ 2 and all numbers r. p) random variables justified us in saying that the sum X = Xn of a large number n of independent coin-toss variables 1 . The Expectation p of each of the variables i is recovered approximately as the numerical average X/n = n−1 n i of independent trials. . in terms of the finite set S of possible values of Z . n .3. as the approximate numerical average of the values g(Ti) over all individuals i with data represented through observed lifetime Ti in the life-table. each of which is 1 with probability p and 0 otherwise. zk−1 . along the lines of a ‘frequentist’ approach to the mathematical theory of probability. as n gets large n P |n−1 i=1 c(Zi ) − E(c(Z1 ))| ≥ δ −→ 0 (3. we observed that our calculations with Binomial(n.3. saying that if Z1 .7. Z2 . i=1 i of the independent outcomes This Law of Large Numbers extends to arbitrary sequences of independent and identical finite-valued discrete random variables.

we are interested in evaluating expectations of various functions of random variables related to the contingencies and uncertain duration of life. The following rules for the manipulation of expectations arising in such superpositions considerably simplify the calculations. . For the rest of this book. Assume in what follows that all random payments and times are functions of a single lifetime random variable T .8) above whenever the function c(z) is such that |c(z)| P (Z1 = z) < ∞ z∈S or the independent random variables Zi are continuous. It is also a fact that the Law of Large Numbers given in equation (3. as long as either Zi are discrete with infinitely many possible values defining a set S. and more generally in applications of probability within actuarial science. all with r the same density f (t) such that P (q ≤ Z1 ≤ r) = q f (t) dt. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES are an essentially complete proof of (3. and the expectation is as given in equation (3.7). whether discrete or continuous.88 CHAPTER 3.9) whenever the function c(t) is such that ∞ |c(t)| f (t) dt < ∞ −∞ All of this shows that there really is no choice in devising an appropriate definition of expectations of cost-functions defined in terms of random variables Z. Many of these expectations concern superpositions of random amounts to be paid out after random durations. and expectation is defined by ∞ E(c(Z1 )) = −∞ c(t) f (t) dt (3.7) continues to hold if the definition of independent sequences of random variables Zi is suitably generalized.

occurs only if a ≤ T < b and in that case consists of a payment of a fixed amount F occurring at a fixed time h. becomes by rule (1) above. c2 (T ) (which may occur at different times.g. then the expected present value under a fixed nonrandom interest-rate i with v = (1 + i)−1 . Since .. then the expectation of the payment is the product of F and the expectation of c(T ): Discrete case: E(F c(T )) = t F c(t) P (T = t) = F t c(t) P (T = t) = F · E(c(T )) F c(t)f (t) dt = F c(t)f (t) dt = F ·E(c(T )) Continuous case: E(F c(T )) = (2). If a payment consists of a nonrandom multiple (e. face-amount F ) times a random amount c(T ). then the overall payment has expectation which is the sum of the expectations of the separate payments: Discrete case: E(c1 (T ) + c2 (T )) = t (c1 (t) + c2 (t)) P (T = t) = t c1(t) P (T = t) + t c2(t) P (T = t) = E(c1(T )) + E(c2(T )) Continuous case: E(c1 (T ) + c2 (T )) = = c1 (t) f (t) dt + (c1 (t) + c2 (t)) f (t) dt c2(t) f (t) dt = E(c1 (T )) + E(c2 (T )) Thus. If a payment consists of the sum of two separate random payments c1(T ). EXPECTATION OF DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES 89 (1). if an uncertain payment under an insurance-related contract. taken into account by treating both terms ck (T ) as present values as of the same time).3. E(v h F I[a≤T <b]) = v h F E(I[a≤T <b]) where the indicator-notation I[a≤T <b] denotes a random quantity which is 1 when the condition [a ≤ T < b] is satisfied and is 0 otherwise.3. based upon a continuous lifetime variable T with density fT .

where x is an integer age. is the whole-year residual life [T ]−x for a life aged x. is called curtate mean residual life or curtate life expectancy. we conclude that E(I[a≤T <b]) = P (a ≤ T < b b) = a fT (t) dt.1 Let Z be a nonnegative-integer-valued random variable.2 Curtate Expectation of Life One example of a function of the number [T ] of whole years of life.11) .3. 1} like the coin-toss variables i above. The expectation.90 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES an indicator random variable has the two possible outcomes {0. Lemma 3.10) The Lemma is proved using the rule (Fubini-Tonelli theorem for double summation) that the order of a double summation of nonnegative summands can always be reversed: ∞ ∞ k ∞ ∞ ∞ EZ = k=0 k pZ (k) = k=1 j=1 pX (k) = j=1 k=j pZ (k) = j=1 P (Z ≥ j) 3. ω−1 ex = E( [T ] − x | T ≥ x ) = t=x P (t ≤ T < t + 1) (t − x) P (T ≥ x) (3. whose conditional expectation is useful and interpretable. and the expected present value above is b E(v h F I[a≤T <b]) = v h F a fT (t) dt (3). The expectation of a nonnegative-integer-valued random variable can sometimes be simplified considerably by means of the following useful Lemma. Then ∞ EZ = j=1 P (Z ≥ j) (3. necessarily conditional on the attained age x.

.g. INTERPRETING FORCE OF MORTALITY 91 Substituting the formula (3.10) of Lemma 3. . nh. .12) A third useful version of this formula can be found by applying formula (3. .6) with g(t) = t − x gives this formula in the alternative form ω−x−1 ex = E( [T ] − x | T ≥ x ) = j=0 j px (1 − px+j ) j (3.13) The extension of these expectation formulas to give mean residual lifetimes which are not truncated to whole years rests on survival function and density formulas which specify mortality rates between birthdays. as large as 4 or 12). 3h.4 Interpreting Force of Mortality This Section consists of remarks. (Here [·] continues to denote the greatest integer less than or equal to its real argument. the discrete random variable [T m]/m gives a close approximation to T and represents the attained age at death measured in whole-number multiples of fractions h = one mth of a year.) Since surviving an additional time t = nh can be viewed as successively surviving to reach times h. for m large (e. relating the force of mortality for a continuously distributed lifetime random variable T (with continuous density function f ) to conditional probabilities for discrete random variables. The following two sections are devoted to a deeper study of continuous mortality models and interpolation approximations.1 to the nonnegative integer valued random variable Z = [T ] − x with probability masses calculated conditionally given T ≥ x.4. 3. Indeed.3. 2h. This yields ω−x−1 ω−x−1 ex = E( [T ] − x | T ≥ x ) = j=1 P ([T ] − x ≥ j | T ≥ x) = j=1 j px (3. and since (by the definition of conditional probability) P (A1 ∩ · · · ∩ An ) = P (A1 ) · P (A2|A1) · · · P (An |A1 ∩ · · · ∩ An−1 ) we have (with the interpretation Ak = {T ≥ x + kh} ) nh px = h px · h px+h · h px+2h · · · h px+(n−1)h .

x+h).92 CHAPTER 3. if f is continuously differentiable. Therefore. and therefore the random survival time can be viewed as the (first failure among a) succession of results of a sequence of independent coin-flips with successive probabilities h pkh of heads. yielding an overall conditional survival probability equal to the negative exponential of accumulated hazard over [x. By the Mean Value Theorem applied up to second-degree terms on the function S(x + h) expanded about h = 0. the previously derived formula x+h h px = exp − x µ(y) dy can be interpreted by considering the fraction of individuals observed to reach age x who thereafter experience hazard of mortality µ(y) dy on successive infinitesimal intervals [y. 3. h px =1 − h· S(x) − S(x + h) hS(x) = 1 − h µ(x) + h f (x + τ h) 2 S(x) Going in the other direction. Yet many expectations of . h2 h2 S(x+h) = S(x) + hS (x) + S (x+τ h) = S(x) − hf (x) − f (x+τ h) 2 2 for some 0 < τ < 1. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES The form in which this formula is most often useful is the case h = 1: for integers k ≥ 2.5 Interpolation Between Integer Ages Cohort life-table data lx and the probability quantities j px derived from them (for integers j) depend on and are determined by the survival function S(k) values only at integer arguments k. using the definition of µ(x) as f (x)/S(x) given on page 49. x + h). y+dy] within [x.14) k px = px · px+1 · px+2 · · · px+k−1 Every continuous waiting-time random variable can be approximated by a discrete random variable with possible values which are multiples of a fixed small unit h of time. The lives aged x survive to age x + h with probability equal to a limiting product of infinitesimal terms (1−µ(y) dy) ∼ exp(−µ(y) dy). (3.

1). 1) in the argument of S in the third term (the mean-value type remainder) of the first line. then it is tempting to impose the direct modelling assumption S(x + t) ≡ S(x) − tf (x) for integer x and t ∈ [0.5. x + 1). for now we focus on understanding what (3. It is possible to approximate these only because. This assumption. the ‘actuarial approximation’ says that failures known to occur within the year between the x and x+1 birthdays are actually uniformly distributed (have constant conditional density of 1) within that year. P (T ∈ [x+a.15) says about the approximate probability distribution of the lifetime variable T within years of age. says that for any 0 ≤ a < b < 1. While we will later use Taylor expansions like (3.15) to approximate expectations E(g(T )) and conditional expectations E(g(T ) | T ≥ x). INTERPOLATION BETWEEN INTEGER AGES 93 functions important in actuarial applications necessarily involve the survival function values between integer ages. 1). for all but the very youngest and oldest ages. the survival function for human lives is very smooth within years of age. as is undoubtedly true for human lifetime between ages 2 and 75 in modern public health conditions. x+b) | [T ] = x) = (b − a) f (x) S(x + a) − S(x + b) = = b−a (S(x) − S(x + 1) f (x) In other words. with derivatives that are not dramatically large and themselves do not change rapidly. This assumption is by far the most commonly used one in actuarial work.15) where θ ∈ (0. together with continuity of S at all integer points. If S = −f is small. In terms of calculus concepts. The ‘actuarial-approximation’ assumption can be understood either as piecewise linearity. and where the second line uses the definition f (x + t) = −S (x + t) valid at all nonnegative integers x and t ∈ [0. on exact-age intervals [x. the function value S(x + t) for integer x and 0 ≤ t < 1 is given approximately by the Taylor series formula S(x + t) = S(x) + t S (x) + 1 2 t S (x + θt) 2 1 = S(x) − t f (x) − t2 f (x + θt) 2 (3. often called the actuarial approximation. of the continuous survival function S(y) or equivalently as piecewise constancy of the density function f (y) = −S (y).3. Two other related possible approximations can .

For integers x and 0 ≤ t ≤ 1. Approximations to S(y). piecewise linearity of log S(x + t) or equivalently piecewise d constancy within intervals x. Many models in biostatistics or reliability have been formulated with piecewise constant hazards (recall that biostatisticians call µ(y) the hazard function while actuaries call it force of mortality). (iii) (Balducci hypothesis) 1/S(x + t) is linear for 0 ≤ t < 1 . i. (ii) (Piecewise-constant hazard) µ(x + t) is constant for 0 ≤ t < 1 . 1.22) to have properties which make it unsuitable as a realistic model for survival. the slope of the linear function S(x + t) at t = 0 is − f (x). .e.18) and µ(x + t) = f (x) S(x) − tf (x) (3. and µ(x + S(x + t) = S(x) e−t µ(x) .18) also holds. and pk = S(x + 1) = e−µ(x) S(x) (3.17) . x + 1) of dy log S(y) = −f (y)/S(y) ≡ µ(y) is well known and has historically been widely used by biostatisticians. where µ(x + t) = µ(x).. since it will be seen immediately below formula (3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES be obtained by Taylor expanding not S(x + t) itself but rather the functions log S(x + t) or 1/S(x + t). It turns out that the first of these alternative assumptions. have been specified or estimated. that of piecewise linearity of 1/S(y).94 CHAPTER 3. is called the Balducci hypothesis.16) Under assumption (i). 1 1 1 ) = fT (x + ) ST (x + ) 2 2 2 Under (ii). f (y) and µ(y) between integers are usually based on one of the following assumptions: (i) (Piecewise-uniform density) f (x + t) is constant for 0 ≤ t < 1 . which implies easily that S(x + t) = S(x) − tf (x). 2. so that under (i). . To proceed formally. assume that values S(x) for x = 0. f (x) = S(x) − S(x + 1) .  S(x + t)  is linear in t under − ln S(x + t)  1/S(x + t)   assumption (i) assumption (ii)  assumption (iii) (3. . The third assumption introduced here. and is studied by actuarial students largely for historical reasons and as a source of examination problems. (3.

24) = S(x + t) = S(x) = (1 − qx)t . the within-year force of mortality under assumption (i) as given in (3. is actually a decreasing function a feature which seems particularly unrealistic from middle to advanced ages within human lifetimes.5. the result is S(x + 1) S(x + 1) = t + (1 − t) = 1 − (1 − t) qx S(x + t) S(x) Recalling that equivalent to 1−t qx+t t qx (3.21) Next differentiate the logarithm of the formula (3. INTERPOLATION BETWEEN INTEGER AGES Under (iii). 1 1 1 1 = +t − S(x + t) S(x) S(x + 1) S(x) 95 (3.3.20) with respect to t. By contrast.19) When equation (3. for 0 ≤ t < 1.20) = 1 − (S(x + t)/S(x)). formula (3. reveals assumption (iii) to be =1− S(x + 1) S(x + 1) = (1 − t) 1 − S(x + t) S(x) = (1 − t) qx (3. to show (still under (iii)) that µ(x + t) = − ∂ qx ln S(x + t) = ∂t 1 − (1 − t)qx (3.23) (3.17) is evidently increasing. the formulas are: t px = 1 − t px (S(x) − t(S(x + 1) − S(x)) = 1 − t qx S(x) e−µ(x) t under (i) under (ii) (3.22) Apart from any other property which the Balducci interpolation assumption (iii) might have.19) immediately shows that the within-year force of mortality µ(x + t). 0 ≤ t < 1. and almost by definition the piecewise-constant hazard assumption (ii) entails within-year constancy of the force of mortality. The most frequent insurance application for the interpolation assumptions (i)-(iii) and associated survival-probability formulas is to express probabilities of survival for fractional years in terms of probabilities of whole-year survival.19) is multiplied through by S(x + 1) and terms are rearranged. In terms of the notations t px and qx for integers x and 0 < t < 1.

in demography. The integral formula for life expectancy can be written in any of the three .26) This quantity is also called expected residual life or. Thus by definition ˚x − ex = E( T − [T ] | T ≥ x ) ∈ [0.96 t px CHAPTER 3. or (iii) via respective formulas (3.24).23).) Then assumptions (i). j integers and 0 ≤ t < 1 the complete residual life is T − x = j + t while the curtate residual life is [T ] − x = j. This quantity is larger than the the curtate life expectancy ex because. we can extend the notion of expected remaining life from the curtate to the complete expectation for a life aged x of (T − x) : complete expectation of life = ˚x = E(T − x | T ≥ x) e (3. for a life just completing its x’th year and surviving to exact age x + j + t . (ii).25) are used to substitute into the final expression of the following formulas: ∞ ω−1 1 E g(T ) = 0 ω−1 g(t) f (t) dt = x=0 1 0 g(t + x) f (t + x) dt ∂ t px dt ∂t = x=0 S(x) 0 g(t + x) − 3. and (3. think of g(T ) = (1 + i)−T as the present value to an insurer of the payment of $1 which it will make instantaneously at the future time T of death of a newborn which it undertakes to insure.25) The application of all of these formulas can be understood in terms of the formula for expectation of a function g(T ) of the lifetime random variable T . (For a concrete example. life expectancy.5. (3. with x. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES = 1 − qx S(x + t) S(x + 1) = S(x + 1) S(x) 1 − (1 − t)qx under (iii) (3.1 Life Expectancy – Definition and Approximation In terms of a survival function f and S modelling the distribution of exact age at death within years of integer age. 1) e since this difference is the expectation or weighted average of a quantity between 0 and 1.

the first is the basic conditional expectation formula (1. 3.28) There are no formulas nearly as simple for the difference between complete and curtate life expectancies under interpolation assumptions (ii) or (iii). Therefore.27) via integration by parts. Under the ”actuarial approximation” (assumption (i)) of uniform lifetime distribution within whole years of age. 1) which is uniformly distributed (with constant density 1). The Gamma function Γ(α) is defined by ∞ Γ(α) = 0 xα−1 e−x dx . obtained from the second expression in (3.3. we find 1 under (i): ˚x − ex = e 0 t dt = 1 2 (3. using the identities f (x + t)/S(x) = µ(x + t) S(x + t)/S(x) = µ(x + t) t px The third is a continuous-time analogue of Lemma 3. α>0 . we saw above that T −[T ] is a random variable with values in [0.4) for expectation.27) Of these expressions.5) with g(T ) = T − x.6. SOME SPECIAL INTEGRALS ways ω 97 ˚x = e x (y − x) f (y) dy = S(x) ω−x ω−x t t px µ(x + t) dt = 0 0 t px (3.6 Some Special Integrals While actuaries ordinarily do not allow themselves to represent real life-table survival distributions by simple finite-parameter families of theoretical distributions (for the good reason that such distributions never approximate the real large-sample life-table data well enough). The second is obtained from it by the change of variable t = y − x. Consider first the Gamma functions and integrals arising in connection with Gamma survival distributions. it is important for the student to be conversant with several integrals which would arise by substituting some of the theoretical models into formulas for various net single premiums and expected lifetimes.1. using the formula (1. using u = t and dv = µ(x + t) tpx dt = −(1/S(x)) d(S(x + t)).

The last integral can be given by symmetry. so that Φ(0) = 1/2. 0) and [0. The symmetry of the normal density guarantees that half of its probability is assigned to each of (−∞. giving the total probability for an exponentially distributed random variable. and it is a standard integration-by-parts exercise to check that it too is 1. shows that for all positive integers n. applied inductively. For α = 2. Γ(n + 1) = n · (n − 1) · · · 2 · Γ(1) = n! The only other simple-to-derive formula explicitly√ giving values for (noninteger) values of the Gamma function is Γ( 1 ) = π.e. More generally. ∞). to show that √ 0 ∞ 1 ∞ −x2 /2 1√ π −z2 /2 −u2 /2 e dz = e du = e dx = 2π = √ 2 −∞ 2 2 −∞ 0 where the last equality is equivalent to the fact (proved in most calculus texts as an exercise in double integration using change of variable to polar coordinates) that the standard normal distribution 1 Φ(x) = √ 2π x e−z −∞ 2 /2 dz (3. using the change of variable u = −z and the fact that the integrand is an even function. obtained as follows: 2 Γ( 1 ) = 2 ∞ ∞ x−1/2 e−x dx = 0 0 e−z 2 /2 √ 2 dz √ Here we have made the integral substitution x = z 2 /2. x−1/2 dx = 2 dz. the integral is the expected value of such a unit-exponential random variable. Integration by parts in the Gamma integral with u = xα and dv = e−x dx immediately yields the famous recursion relation for the Gamma integral. . the integral Gamma(α + 1) for positive integer α is the αth moment of the Exponential distribution with parameters λ = 1. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES This integral is easily checked to be equal to 1 when α = 1. i. and valid for all α > 0 : ∞ Γ(α + 1) = 0 x e α −x dx = −x e α −x ∞ ∞ + 0 0 α xα−1 e−x dx = α · Γ(α) This relation.98 CHAPTER 3.29) is a bona-fide distribution function with limit equal to 1 as x → ∞. first derived by Euler. a lifetime with constant force-of-mortality 1..

z 1 Gα (z) = v α−1 e−v dv Γ(α) 0 and the integral on the right-hand side is called the incomplete Gamma function. One particular case of these integrals. SOME SPECIAL INTEGRALS 99 One of the integrals which arises in calculating expected remaining lifetimes for Weibull-distributed variables is a Gamma integral. via an integration by parts with u = t − x and dv = f (t)dt = −S (t)dt. to give in the Weibull example. or among the standard functions of many mathematical/statistical computer packages. γ t>0 so that S(x) = exp(−λ xγ ). the case α = 1/2 . such as Matlab or R. We change variables by v = y 2/2 to obtain for z ≥ 0.3. after integrationby-parts and a change-of-variable. The expected remaining life for a Weibulldistributed life aged x is calculated. Recall that the Weibull density with parameters λ. E(T − x | T ≥ x) = eλx = Γ( γ 1 −1/γ λ γ ∞ w(1/γ)−1 e−w dw λ xγ 1 λ xγ 1 −1/γ )e λ 1 − G1/γ (λ xγ ) γ γ where we denote by Gα (z) the Gamma distribution function with shape parameter α. Values of Gα (z) can be found either in published tables which are now quite dated.6. as ∞ (t − x) x 1 f (t) γ dt = − (t − x) e−λt S(x) S(x) ∞ ∞ + x x e−λt dt γ The first term in square brackets evaluates to 0 at the endpoints. γ is f (t) = λ γ tγ−1 e−λ t . and the second term can be re-expressed via the change-of-variable w = λ tγ with (1/γ) w1/γ−1 dw = λ1/γ dt. √ G1/2 (z) = = z 2z √ 1 1 2 v −1/2 e−v dv = √ 2 e−y /2 dy Γ(1/2) 0 π 0 √ √ 2 √ · 2π · (Φ( 2z) − Φ(0)) = 2Φ( 2z) − 1 π . can be re-cast in terms of the standard normal distribution function Φ(·).

Suppose that an individual aged 20 has random lifetime (= exact age at death) T with continuous density function fT (t) = 0. 1 − Φ(x ) 2 x = log(x/m) σ 3. where k is a constant. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES One further expected-lifetime calculation with a common type of distribution gives results which simplify dramatically and become amenable to numerical calculation. Show that: = tpx · (µx − µx+t ) . Express µx+2 as a function of k. Suppose that the lifetime random variable T is assumed lognormally distributed with parameters m. and define in particular log(x) − log(m) σ √ Recalling that Φ (z) = exp(−z 2/2)/ 2π .100 CHAPTER 3. we find x = 1 E( T − x | T ≥ x ) = 1 − Φ(x ) ∞ x m 2 √ eσy−y /2 dy − x 2π The integral simplifies after completing the square σy − y 2/2 = σ 2 /2 − (y − σ)2/2 in the exponent of the integrand and changing variables by z = y − σ. (2). so that t = m eσy . Then the expected remaining lifetime of a life aged x is E( T − x | T ≥ x ) = 1 S(x) ∞ t x d log(t) − log(m) Φ( ) dt − x dt σ Now change variables by y = (log(t) − log(m))/σ = log(t/m)/σ.7 Exercise Set 3 ∂ p ∂x t x (1). (3). t > 20 . For a certain value of x.02 (t − 20) e−(t−20) 2 /100 . The result is: meσ /2 E( T − x | T ≥ x ) = 1 − Φ(x − σ) − x . σ 2. 3]. it is known that tqx = kt over the timeinterval t ∈ [0.

the integral in (a) ∞ can be evaluated in terms of incomplete Gamma integrals c sα−1 e−s ds. twice as many lives die in each 5-year period as in the previous five-year period. If he deposits $1000 in the fund at the end of each of the first 10 years and $1000 + x in the fund at the end of each of the second 10 years. (8). Express in terms of annuity-functions aN the present value of an annuity of $100 per month paid the first year. If the force of mortality can be assumed constant over each five-year age period (20-24.). Find the numerical value of the present value if the effective annual interest rate is 7% . then find x to the nearest dollar.e. (4).3.08 − 1 per year) to calculate the present value of the payment. (9).g. Show that: ∞ 0 2 x lx+t µx+t dt = lx . Find upper bounds for the following Binomial probabilities. EXERCISE SET 3 101 (a) If this individual has a contract with your company that you must pay his heirs $106 · (1. The probability that in 1000 Bernoulli trials with success(m) . for integer α > 0.7. then find the probability that a life aged 20 will survive at least until exact age 48. s.8. (7).08(T − 20)) (i. 25-29. then what is the expected payment ? (b) If the value of the death-payment described in (a) should properly be discounted by the factor exp(−0. $200 per month for the second year. etc. (6). A man wishes to accumulate $50. w. up to $1000 per month the tenth year. g.0 . Suppose that a life-table mortality pattern is this: from ages 20 through 60.. and compare them with the exact values calculated via computer (e. and if you are told that l60/l20 = 0. where k. c are positive constants. Find the probability that a life aged 20 will die between exact ages 40 and 50. where the fund earns an effective interest rate of 6% . using a spreadsheet or exact mathematical function such as pbinom in Splus) : (a). 000 in a fund at the end of 20 years.4 − T /50) on the date of his death between ages 20 and 70. then what is the expected present value of the insurance contract ? Hint for both parts: After a change of variables. Obtain an expression for µx if lx = k sx wx g c . (5). where the complete Gamma integrals (for c=0) are known yield the Gamma function Γ(α) = (α − 1)!. by the effective interest rate of e.

the number of successes lies outside the (inclusive) range [364. 3.) of the Gamma(α. 000. for g(t) = tr . Derive the formula for the 2’nd and 3’rd moments of the Weibull(α. r = 2. given that the radix l0 of the life-table is 10. no more than 1075 survive to retire at age 65. V2 of the payments in each of the two events with probability 0.5 each. Hint: calculate the respective present values V1 . for whom p45 = 0.72.4. 000 in exactly 5 years. 446]. Find the expected present value at 5% APR of an investment whose proceeds will with probability 1/2 be a payment of $10. β) density f (t) = β α tα−1 e−β t I[t≥0] α f (t) g(t) dt as a function of parameters α and β. . Hint: change variables appropriately and use the Gamma function. 000 in exactly 10 years. The probability that of 1650 lives aged exactly 45. and find the expected value of a discrete random variable which has values V1 or V2 with probabilities 0. Derive the formula for the 2’nd and 3’rd moments (that is. λ) density f (t) = (λα /Γ(α!)) tα−1 e−λ t I[t≥0] as a function of parameters α and λ. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES probability 0. 20 (10). If the force of mortality governing a cohort life-table is such that µt = 2 2 + 1+t 100 − t for real t . (12). and with the remaining probability 1/2 will be a payment of $20. Hint: change variables by y = λt. (13). 0 < t < 100 then find the number of deaths which will be expected to occur between ages 1 and 4.5. (11).102 CHAPTER 3. (b).

01 · 100 · (64 − [y]) dy . (c) Find the expected present value at 4% interest of a payment of $1000 to be made at the end of the year of death of a life currently aged exactly 20. and (a) Suppose that an insurer is to pay an amount $100· (64 − X) (without regard to interest or present values related to the time-deferral of the payment) for a newborn in the life-table population.024 y for 49 ≤ y ≤ 64.85 − 0. the survival function is piecewise linear. The first task is to develop an expression for survival function and density governing the cohort life-table population. 0. 49). Specifically for this example. Alternatively. if X denotes the attained integer age at death.01 y for 15 ≤ y ≤ 49. and 1. extending the function S linearly.02 · 100 · (64 − [y]) dy + 0 15 0.8. = 0.02 on [0.02 y for 0 ≤ y ≤ 15. Now the expectation in (a) can be written in terms of the random lifetime variable with density f as 15 49 0.8 Worked Examples Assume that a cohort   200 dx = 100  240 life-table population satisfies l0 = 104 for 0 ≤ x ≤ 14 for 15 ≤ x ≤ 48 for 49 ≤ x ≤ 63 Example 1. WORKED EXAMPLES 103 3. we have the survival density f (y) = −S (y) = 0.024 on [49. 64].  for 0 ≤ y ≤ 15  10000 − 200y ly = 7000 − 100(y − 15) for 16 ≤ y ≤ 49  3600 − 240(y − 49) for 50 ≤ y ≤ 64 It follows that the terminal age for this population is ω = 64 for this population.536 − . and the life-distribution is piecewise uniform because the the density is piecewise constant. What is the expected amount to be paid ? (b) Find the expectation requested in (a) if the insurance is purchased for a life currently aged exactly 10 . and = 0. Since the numbers of deaths are constant over intervals of years. and S(y) = 1 − 0. at integer values y.01 on [15. 15).3.

So the summations now begin with k = 10. by 15 49 64 2. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES 64 0.02 · 100 · (64 − k) + 0. In addition.01 · 100 · (64 − k) + k=15 k=49 0. except that we are dealing with conditional probabilities of lifetimes given to be at least 10 years long.104 + CHAPTER 3. or alternatively end with j = 64 − k = 54. Therefore the integral just displayed can immediately be seen to agree with the summation formula for the expectation of the function 100(64−X) for the integer-valued random variable X whose probability mass function is given by P (X = k) = dk /l0 The formula is 14 E(g(Y )) = E(100(64 − X)) = k=0 48 63 0. and the denominators of the conditional probabilities P (X = k|X ≥ 10) are l10 = 8000. observe that the integrand (the function g(y) = 100(64 − [y]) of the random lifetime Y whose expectation we are seeking) itself takes a different analytical form on successive one-year age intervals. The method in part (b) is very similar to that in part (a).024 · 100 · (64 − [y]) dy 49 The integral has been written as a sum of three integrals over different ranges because the analytical form of the density f in the expectation-formula g(y)f (y)dy is different on the three different intervals. The expectation in (b) then becomes 14 k=10 200 100 240 · 100 · (64 − k) + · 100 · (64 − k) + · 100 · (64 − k) 8000 8000 8000 k=15 k=49 48 63 .024 · 100 · (64 − k) Thus the solution to (a) is given (after the change-of-variable j = 64 − k).4 j=1 j + j=16 j + 2 j=50 j The displayed expressions can be summed either by a calculator program or n by means of the easily-checked formula j=1 j = j(j + 1)/2 to give the numerical answer $3103 .

04)−15 + 1.X year for an individual currently at the 20th birthday is X − 19 years away. (Note that the function 1.9 dy y (80 − z)−1 dz) 40 .) Since l20 = 6500.04)19−k + 6500 63 k=49 240 (1.25 16 j + 2.25 Finally.9 at ages over 40 changes leaves unaffected the density of 1/80 for ages less than 40.8. WORKED EXAMPLES which works out to the numerical value 15 49 54 105 3.04 650 0. because the end of the age. The force of mortality here is µ(y) = − d 1 ln(1 − y/80) = dy 80 − y So multiplying it by 0.04−29 65 0.04−29 1 − (1. we find the expectation in (c) as a summation beginning at k = 20 for a function 1000 · (1.9 at all exact ages y ≥ 40.5 50 j = $2391. and for ages y over 40 changes the density from f (y) = 1/80 to f ∗ (y) = − d S(40) exp(−0. or (b) the force of mortality µ(y) is decreased by the constant amount 0. the answer to part (c) is 48 1000 k=20 100 (1.04 Example 2. Find the change in the expected lifetime of a cohort life-table population governed by survival function S(x) = 1 − (x/ω) for 0 ≤ x ≤ ω if ω = 80 and (a) the force of mortality µ(y) is multiplied by 0.04)19−k 6500 = 392.3.04)−X+19 of the random variable X with conditional probability distribution P (X = k|X ≥ 20) = dk /l20 for k ≥ 20.1 at all ages y ≥ 40.92 = 1000 24 1 1 − 1.04−X+19 is the present value of a payment of 1 at the end of the year of death.0 1 j + 1.

Partial interest payments with return of principal. The second is a ‘junk bond’ which has probability 0.53. Suppose that you have available to you two investment possibilities.6 of paying 11% compound interest and returning your principal after 10 years. named and displayed along with their probabilities in the following table.5%.9 (2 − y/40)−0. The first investment is a risk-free bond (or bank savings-account) which returns compound interest of 5% for a 10-year period.9 ln((80−y)/40) dy = −0. Example 3. Also assume that the events governing the junk bond’s paying or defaulting are independent of the true interest rate’s being 4. into each of which you are being asked to commit $5000.5% versus 7.9) = 40.3 of paying yearly interest at 11% for 5 years and then returning your principal of $5000 at the end of the 10th year with no further interest payments.45(80/. Suppose further that the going rate of interest with respect to which present values should properly be calculated for the next 10 years will either be 4. Which investment provides the better expected return in terms of current (time-0) dollars ? There are six relevant events. probability 0.1 dy 80 Using the change of variable z = 2 − y/40 in the last integral gives the expected lifetime = 10 + . PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES d 0. each with probability 0.9 (2 − y/40)−0. corresponding to the possible combinations of true interest rate (Low versus High) and payment scenarios for the junk bond (Full payment.5 d dy 80 − y 40 0.5.5% for the next 10 years.1 80 80 0 Thus the expected lifetime changes from 40 80 (y/80) dy = 40 to (y/80) dy + 0 40 y 0.5 e0.9 − 40/1.106 = − CHAPTER 3.1 of paying yearly interest for 3 years at 11% and then defaulting. paying no more interest and not returning the principal.5% or 7. and probability 0. and Default after 3 years’ interest payments): .9 = 0.

the present value of the first investment (the risk-free bond) is 10 5000 k=1 0. A5.1).075)−k + (1.05 (1.82 On each of the events A4.5) · (0.15 0.075)−10 = 4141.8.90 Turning to the second investment (the junk bond).05 (1.045)−10 = 5197.05 0.99 Thus.05 107 Note that because of independence (first defined in Section 1.30 0. A2 . A3.5 · (5197.30 0.30) = 0.99) = 4669.82 + 4141.3.15 0.5 the overall expected present value of the first investment is 0.045)−k + (1.15 Now.g. denoting by P V the .. A6. under each of the events A1. the probabilities of intersected events are calculated as the products of the separate probabilities. P (A2 ) = P (Low) · P (P artial) = (0. e. WORKED EXAMPLES Event Name A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 Description Low ∩ Full Low ∩ Partial Low ∩ Default High ∩ Full High ∩ Partial High ∩ Default Probability 0. the present value of the first investment is 10 5000 k=1 0. since P (Low) = P (A1 ∪ A2 ∪ A3) = P (A1) + P (A2 ) + P (A3) = 0.

075)−k + (1. although the first-investment is ‘risk-free’.075)−k = 0.51433 (1.302386 (1. nevertheless beats inflation (i.11 k=1 5 (1. it does not keep up with inflation in the sense that its present value is not even as large as its starting value. we conclude that the overall expected present value E(P V ) of the second investment is 6 6 E(P V · IAi ) = i=1 i=1 E(P V |Ai) P (Ai ) = 5000 · (1.e.11 E(P V | A2)/5000 = 0.108 CHAPTER 3.24024 k=1 5 E(P V | A4)/5000 = 0. we have 10 E(P V | A1)/5000 = 0.11 Therefore.075)−10 = 1.77 So.045)−10 = 1.11 k=1 10 (1.045)−k + (1.286058 k=1 E(P V | A6)/5000 = 0. the expected present value of the accumulation after 10 years is greater than the initial face value of $5000) although with probability P (Default ) = 0. . PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES present value considered as a random variable.045)−10 = 1.93024 k=1 3 E(P V | A5)/5000 = 0. The second investment. risky as it is.045)−k + (1..045)−k = 0.16435) = 5821.075)−k + (1.11 E(P V | A3)/5000 = 0.075)−10 = 0.10 the investor may be so unfortunate as to emerge (in present value terms) with only 30% of his initial capital.12683 (1.11 k=1 3 (1.

it remains valid if the right-hand side is minimized over s. The minimum . APPENDIX ON LARGE DEVIATION PROBABILITIES 109 3. aN ) ∈ {0. then P (X ≥ Nb) ≤ exp − N b ln b p c p + (1 − b) ln 1−b 1−p 1−c 1−p P (X ≤ Nc) ≤ exp − N c ln + (1 − c) ln Proof. . denoting the number of successes in N Bernoulli (p) trials. The calculus minimum does exist and is unique. Since the event [X ≥ Nb] is the union of the disjoint events [X = k] for k ≥ Nb. .9 Appendix to Chapter 3: Large Deviation Probabilities Theorem 3. the second inequality will be derived from it. a suitable subset of the binomial probability mass function values pX (k) are summed to provide P (X ≥ Nb) = k:N b≤k≤N P (X = k) = k≥N b N k pk (1 − p)N −k For every s > 1. If 1 > b > p > c > 0. . p) random variable. The trick in the proof comes now: since the left-hand side of the inequality does not involve s while the right-hand side does. as you can check by calculating that the second derivative in s is always positive. 1}N for which j=1 aj = k ≥ Nb. . and since the inequality must be valid for every s > 1. this probability is ≤ k≥N b N k pk (1 − p)N −k sk−N b = s−N b k≥N b N N k (ps)k (1 − p)N −k ≤ s−N b k=0 N k (ps)k (1 − p)N −k = s−N b (1 − p + ps)N Here extra terms (corresponding to k < Nb) have been added in the nextto-last step. which in turn consist of all outcome-strings N (a1. and the binomial theorem was applied in the last step.2 (Large Deviation Inequalities) Suppose that X is a Binomial (N. After the first inequality in (a) is proved.3.9.

Therefore when b > p > c.30) a = min (p + δ) ln(1 + δ ) + (1 − p − δ) ln(1 − p (p − δ) ln(1 − δ ) + (1 − p + δ) ln(1 + p δ ) 1−p δ ). it follows that Y also has a Binomial(N. the upper bound for N −1 ln P ([X ≥ bN] ∪ [X ≤ cN]) is strictly negative and does not involve N .110 CHAPTER 3. gives the second inequality for P (Y ≥ Nb) = P (X ≤ Nc). 2 .1 on the probability with which th relative frequency of success X/N differs from the true probability p of success by as much as δ. let δ ∈ (0. For an improved estimate of the probability bounded in Theorem 3. r 1−r Note that for all r between 0. Substituting this value for s yields P (X ≥ Nb) ≤ b (1 − p) p (1 − b) −N b 1−p 1−b N = exp −N b ln as desired. Therefore. min(p. i. Note also that c < p implies b = 1 − c > 1 − p = q. 1. Replace X by Y = N − X. where the ‘successes’ counted by Y are precisely the ‘failures’ in the Bernoulli trials defining X. The probabilities of such large deviations between X/N and δ are in fact exponentially small as a function of the number N . where q = 1 − p. the quantity r ln p +(1 − r) ln 1−p as a function of r is convex and has a unique minimum of 0 at r = p. the first inequality applied to Y instead of X with q = 1 − p replacing p and b = 1 − c. 1−b b + (1 − b) ln p 1−p The second inequality follows from the first. 1 − p)) be arbitrarily small. choose b = p + δ. and combine the inequalities of part (a) to give the precise estimate: P (| where X − p| ≥ δ) ≤ 2 · exp(−Na) N (3.31) This last inequality gives a much stronger and numerically more useful upper bound than Theorem 3. Since Y also is a count of ‘successes’ in Bernoulli (1 − p) trials. q) distribution. at s = b(1 − p)/(p(1 − b)). c = p − δ..e. 1−p > 0 (3.1. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES occurs where the first derivative of the logarithm of the last expression is 0.

APPENDIX ON LARGE DEVIATION PROBABILITIES 111 If the probabilities P (|X/N − p| ≥ δ) in Theorem 3. However. Hogg and Tanis 1997). Another. it can be shown that the exponential rate of decay as a function of N in the true tailprobabilities PN = P (X ≥ Nb) or P (X ≤ Nc) in Theorem 3. more operational. The bounds given in Theorem 3..e.g. then why are those bounds of interest ? (These are 1 minus the probabilities illustrated in Table 1.3.2 (i. for practical purposes the normal approximation to the binomial probabilities of large discrepancies from the expectation is generally much more precise than the large deviation bounds of Theorem 3. . We can tolerate the apparent looseness in the bounds because in actuarial applications involving really extreme tail probabilities (e. they provide relatively quick hand-calculated estimates showing that large batches of independentcoin-tosses are extremely unlikely to yield relative frequencies ofheads much different from the true probability or limiting relative frequency of heads.1 (cf.2 get small with large N much more rapidly than the simpler bounds based on the Chebychev inequality used in proving Theorem 3.1 is that two very large insured cohorts with the same true survival probabilities are very unlikely to have materially different survival experience. the constants appearing in square brackets in the exponents on the right-hand sides of the bounds) are exactly the right ones: no larger constants replacing them could give correct bounds.1 are generally much smaller than the upper bounds given for them.2.9. Slud and Hoesman 1989). as Table 1 illustrates.) First. way to render this conclusion of Theorem 3.

92 k−1 k/m px = j=0 1/m px+j/m . Expectation E(c(Z)) = i=1 c(zi ) pZ (zi) p. 85 ∞ Non-neg. 94 . 1] p.112 CHAPTER 3.v. t ∈ [0. 90 ω−x−1 Curtate life expectancy ex = j=1 j px p. 75 m Binomial(N.10 Useful Formulas from Chapter 3 P (X = k) = N k pk (1 − p)N −k p. Expectation E(Z) = j=1 P (Z ≥ j) p. p) probability Discrete r.v. 92 (i) Piecewise Unif. k ≥ 1 integer p. S(x+t) = tS(x+1)+(1−t)S(x) . k ≥ 1 integer p. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES 3. x integer . integer-valued r. 91 k px = px px+1 px+2 · · · px+k−1 .

94 t px = S(x) − t(S(x + 1) − S(x)) = 1 − t qx S(x) under (i) p. 97 ∞ Γ(α) = 0 xα−1 e−x dx p. 95 t px = 1 − qx S(x + t) S(x + 1) = S(x + 1) S(x) 1 − (1 − t)qx under (iii) p. 96 ω−x Complete life expectancy ˚x = e 0 s px ds p.3. 95 t px = S(x + t) = S(x) e−µ(x) t = (1 − qx)t under (ii) p. 94 (iii) Balducci hypothesis t 1−t 1 = + S(x + t) S(x + 1) S(x) p. 98 . USEFUL FORMULAS FROM CHAPTER 3 113 (ii) Piecewise Const. 98 1 Φ(x) = √ 2π x e−z −∞ 2 /2 dz p.10. µ : ln S(x + t) = t ln S(x + 1) + (1 − t) ln S(x) p.

PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES .114 CHAPTER 3.

and next to use interest theory to define the present value of the contractual payment stream by the insurer as a nonrandom function of the random individual lifetime T . The details of the further mathematical discussion fall into two parts: first. 115 . and second. this leads to a formula for the expected present value of the payout by the insurer. In each case. and (B) discounting of future payment (streams) based on interest-rate assumptions. the application of the various survival assumptions concerning interpolation between whole years of age. endowment and life annuity contracts.Chapter 4 Expected Present Values of Insurance Contracts We are now ready to draw together the main strands of the development so far: (A) expectations of discrete and continuous random variables defined as functions of a life-table waiting time T until death. an amount called the net single premium or net single risk premium of the contract because it is the single cash payment by the insured at the beginning of the insurance period which would exactly compensate for the average of the future payments which the insurer will have to make. We close this Chapter with a discussion of instantaneous-payment insurance. the specification of formulas in terms of cohort life-table quantities for net single premiums of insurances and annuities which pay only at whole-year intervals. We first define the contractual terms of and discuss relations between the major sorts of insurance. to obtain the corresponding formulas for insurances and annuities which have m payment times per year.

assuming for convenience that the contract is initiated on the holder’s birthday. together with the other notations previously discussed for annuities of nonrandom duration. all times being measured from the date of policy initiation. we adopt several uniform notations and assumptions. Of course. and compare the corresponding integral and summation formulas. We also relate these expectations with their m-payment-per-year discrete analogues. an insurance will pay off at the end of the fraction 1/m of a year during which death occurs. There are three major types of contracts to consider: insurance. and finally in the instantaneous case. and endowments. and retain the notation v = (1 + i)−1 . which pay only when a single life terminates due to a specified cause or set of causes (insurances based on multiple decrement tables). all of which involve continuous-time expectation integrals. . More complicated kinds of contracts — which we do not discuss in detail — can be obtained by combining (superposing or subtracting) these in various ways. or endowment contract. Thus. insurances and annuities on joint lives. Fix a nonrandom effective interest rate i . The approach here differs in unifying concepts by discussing together all of the different contracts. for given m. life annuity. (1997). other types of insurances on lives do exist. In what follows. and mean-residual-life formulas. For these further topics. (1997). Let x denote the initial integer age of the holder of the insurance. Similar discussions can be found in the books Life Contingencies by Jordan (1967) and Actuarial Mathematics by Bowers et al.1 Preliminaries The topic of study in this Chapter is contracts resulting in contingent payment streams depending on the age at death T of a single individual. Only single life contracts without distinctions between causes of mortality are discussed here. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS continuous-payment annuity. next under the interpolation assumption (i) with m payment periods per year. or which contractually involve more than one life (for example husband-wife pairs). denote by m the number of payment-periods per year. life annuities. Next. and life-annuities pay regularly m times per year until the annuitant dies.116 CHAPTER 4. first in the whole-year case. we refer the reader to Bowers et al. 4.

all probabilities and conditional expectations refer only to the discrete random variable [T ] = T1 and are calculated in terms of the conditional probability mass function. The random exact age at which the policyholder dies is denoted by T . we say the policy age is t − x. and therefore are smaller by x than the exact age of the policyholder at termination. If k k+1 ≤T −x< m m .1. The probabilities of the various possible occurrences under the policy are therefore calculated using the conditional probability distribution of T given that T ≥ x. When the amounts and times of payments under a contract depend only on the whole-year age at death (m = 1). and all of the contracts under discussion have the property that T is the only random variable upon which either the amount or time of payment can depend. the amount of the payment will be assumed to depend on T only through the greatest integer less than or equal to mT . PRELIMINARIES 117 The term or duration n of the contract will always be assumed to be an integer multiple of 1/m.2) and depends only on the cohort life-table entries. Note that policy durations are all measured from policy initiation. we refer to policy time for the life aged x as the time scale with origin at policy initiation. then Tm ≡ k [mT ] = x+ m m (4. and at chronological age t for the policyholder. since the displayed conditional probability is precisely dx+k /lx . given for nonnegative integers x. In examples based on m payment periods per year.1) denotes the attained age at death measured in completed (1/m)’th years.4. and the density by f (t). k by P ([T ] = x + k | [T ] ≥ x) = P (k ≤ T − x < k + 1 | T ≥ x) = k px − k+1 px = k px qx+k (4. assumed to be the x birthday of the policy-holder. the probability calculations necessarily involve interpolations of the survival function S(t) within whole years of age. Thus. the survival function of T is denoted S(t). In the setting where the insurance and annuity contracts are formulated in terms of m possible death and payment periods per year. which has continuous probability density f (t)/S(x) at all times t ≥ x. k . As before. but only to values t of the form x + k/m.

118 CHAPTER 4. and number m of possible payment-periods per year. if T ∈ [x. a life aged x. paymentamount function F (·).4) .2 Insurance & Life Annuity Contracts An Insurance contract is an agreement to pay a face amount — perhaps modified by a specified function of the time until death — if the insured.3) 4. (Insm ) Specializing to the case m = 1.1): P (Tm = x + = k+1 k k Tm ≥ x) = P ( ≤T −x< T ≥ x) m m m = k/m px 1 k k+1 S(x + ) − S(x + ) S(x) m m − (k+1)/m px = P (T ≥ x + k+1 k k T ≥ x) · P (T < x + T ≥x+ ) m m m = k/m px · 1/m qx+k/m (4. the present value of the insurance company’s payment under the contract (Ins) or (Ins1 ) is F ([T − x]) v [T −x]+1 0 if x ≤ T < x + n otherwise (4. so that Tm = [T ] is the whole-year age at death. for a specified term n ≤ ∞. but for example in decreasing term policies the payment will decrease linearly as a function of Tm over the term of the policy.) The general form of this contract. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS an integer. the term of the policy. Then all conditional expecations are calculated in terms of the probability mass function of the random variable Tm given as in (4. with payment to be made at the end of the 1/m year within which the death occurs. and a term insurance otherwise. dies at any time during a specified period. x + n). The insurance is said to be a whole-life policy if the duration n = ∞. Usually the payment will simply be the face amount F (0). is to 1 pay F (T − x) at Tm − x + m time units following policy initiation.

we refer to life annuities with first payment at time 0 as (life) annuities-due and to those with first payment at time 1/m (and therefore last payment at time n in the case of a finite term n over which the annuitant survives) as (life) annuities-immediate. In this general setting. In this case. A Life Annuity contract is an agreement to pay a scheduled payment to the policyholder at every interval 1/m of a year while the annuitant is alive. . Again the payment amounts are ordinarily constant. . .2. . . n. up to n payments are made (since F (0) = 0 or F (n) = 0). When the insurance is whole-life (n = ∞). 2. k 0 ≤ m ≤ T − x. TYPES OF CONTRACTS 119 The simplest and most common case of this contract and formula arise when the face-amount F (0) = F is the constant amount paid whenever a death within the term occurs. n − 1. we adopt the convention that in the finite-term or temporary life annuities.4. (LifAnnm ) As in the case of annuities certain (the nonrandom annuities discussed in Chapter 1). . . 1. at most nm payments. so 1 that Ax:∞ ≡ Ax . the subscript n and bracket n and superscript 1 over x are dropped. . where F (s) is a fixed function and s ranges over multiples of 1/m. Then the payment is F . with F ≡ 1. and both the payment and present value are 0 otherwise. either F (0) = 0 or F (n) = 0. either F (k) ≡ F for k = 0.5) Here the situation is definitely simpler in the case where the payment amounts F (k) are level or constant. if x ≤ T < x + n. the net single premium has the 1 standard notation Ax:n . and the present value of the insurance company’s payment under the life annuity contract is [T −x] F (k) v k k=0 (4. the life annuity contract requires the insurer to k pay amounts F (k/m) at policy times m . To avoid ambiguity. but in principle any nonrandom time-dependent schedule of payments F (k/m) can be used. or F (k) ≡ F for k = 1. In the first of these cases. up to a maximum number of nm payments. with present value F v [T ]−x+1. Again specialize to the case m = 1: under the contract (LifAnn) or (LifAnn1). the life-annuitydue payment stream becomes an annuity-due certain (the kind discussed .

only whether the payment is made at all. since neither the amount nor the time of payment. which have ¨ payments commencing at policy time 1 and continuing annually either until death or for a total of n payments. the present value formula as a function of [T ] is the certain annuity immediate amin([T ]−x. 0 otherwise (4. The third major type of insurance contract is the Endowment. This contract is the simplest. which pays a contractual face amount F = F (0) at the end of n policy years if the policyholder initially aged x survives to age x + n. . both with term n and the same face amount 1. whichever comes first.120 CHAPTER 4.5) is amin([T ]−x+1. . and by 0 for larger indices k. The pure endowment contract commits the insurer to pay an amount F at policy time n if T ≥ x+n (Endow) The present value of the pure endowment contract payment is F vn if T ≥ x + n. n − 1. 1. . and its expected present value (= net single premium) is ¨ denoted ax:n . which for a life aged x and term n is simply the sum of the pure endowment and the term insurance. if we replace F (k) by 1 for k = 0. n) . . since this is the present value of the pattern of annual unit payments starting at policy time 1 up to [T − x] or n. then the present value in equation (4. In the case of temporary life annuities-immediate. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS previously under the Theory of Interest) as soon as the random variable T is fixed. Indeed. Here the standard contract with m payment periods per year and unit level face amount calls for the insurer to pay 1 at policy time Tm − x + 1/m if T < x + n (EndInsm ) n if T ≥ x + n .6) The net single premium or expected present value for a pure endowment 1 contract with face amount F = 1 is denoted Ax:n or n Ex and is evidently equal to 1 Ax:n = n Ex = v n n px (4. The expected-present value notation for temporary life annuities immediate is ax:n . is uncertain. n) .7) The other contract frequently referred to in actuarial texts is the Endowment Insurance.

This policy pays a constant face amount at the end of the current fraction 1/m year containing the policy time T − x. in which case the superscript 1 is positioned above the term n. m = 1 In this subsection.9) 4.e. this identity is 1 1 Ax:n = Ax:n + Ax:n (4. In terms of net single premiums. because it is built up simply from the contracts already described. we collect a few useful identities connecting the different types of risk premiums for contracts with m = 1 payment period per year. The first. is the definition of endowment insurance as the superposition of a constant-face-amount term insurance with a pure endowment of the same face amount and term.2.4. When m = 1.2. is the n-year deferred insurance. we express the present value of this contract as v n on the event [T ≥ n] and as v [T −x]+1 on the complementary event [T < n]. These identities therefore hold and can be used in computational formulas without regard to particular life-table interpolation assumptions.. in both cases. The notations for the net single premium of the term insurance and of the pure endowment are intended to be mnemonic. When the face amount is 1. the notation and formula for the net single premium is n Ax 1 = Ax − Ax:n (4. respectively denoting the portions of the endowment insurance net single premium respectively triggered by the expiration of life — in which case the superscript 1 is positioned above the x —or by the expiration of the fixed term. Another example of an insurance contract which does not need separate treatment. n) (4. the contractual payout is precisely the difference between the unit whole-life insurance and the n-year unit term insurance. Thus. Note that [T − x] + 1 ≤ n whenever T − x < n. but only if death occurs after the deferral time n . i. TYPES OF CONTRACTS 121 Simplifying to the case of a single payment per year (m = 1). the present value is given by v min([T −x]+1. after age x + n for a new policyholder aged precisely x.1 Formal Relations between Risk Premiums.10) .8) The expected present value of the unit endowment insurance (still in the case m = 1) is denoted Ax:n . which we have already seen.

in all circumstances.8). we need to relate the risk premiums for life annuities-immediate to those of life annuities-due.11) is d ax:n + Ax:n = 1 ¨ (4. The difference arises because the payment streams (for the life annuity-due deferred 1 year and the life-annuity immediate) end at the same time rather than with the same number of payments when death occurs before time n.8) is the present value of the unit endowment insurance.11) where recall that Ex ( · ) denotes the conditional expectation E( · | T ≥ x). the present value of the life annuitydue payout coincides with the annuity-due certain. A more common and algebraically equivalent form of the identity (4. n) = ¨ 1 − v min([T −x]+1. Taking expectations (over values of the random variable T . for a fixed value of the random lifetime T .13) . The great generality ofthe identity arises from the fact we saw in the discussion following (4. Taking expectations leads to the formula ax:n = ax:n+1 − 1 ¨ (4. nonrandom-duration annuities). EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS Another important identity concerns the relation between expected present values of endowment insurances and life annuities. and substituting (m) Ax:n as expectation of (4.4). n) d where the second expression follows from the first via formula (2.e. The correct conversion-formula is obtained by treating the life annuity-immediate of term n as paying. then yields: ax:n = Ex ¨ 1 − v min([T −x]+1. n) which we saw in (4.. Unlike the case of annuities-certain (i. one cannot simply multiply the present value of the life annuity-due for fixed T by the discount-factor v in order to obtain the corresponding present value for the life annuity-immediate with the same term n. conditionally given T ≥ x) in the present value formula. and is given by amin([T −x]+1. Thus. a present value of 1 (equal to the cash payment at policy initiation) less than the life annuity-due with term n + 1.12) To obtain a corresponding identity relating net single premiums for life annuities-immediate to those of endowment insurances.5) that.122 CHAPTER 4. the unit life annuity-due has present value which is a simple linear function of v min([T −x]+1. n) d = 1 − Ax:n d (4.

annuity. we find ax:n = ax:n+1 − 1 = ¨ and d ax:n + Ax:n+1 = d = v i (4.9). i/d = 1 + i = v −1 Since the n-year deferred insurance with risk premium (4.15) 1 − Ax:n+1 1 1 − 1 = − Ax:n+1 d i d (4. the notation IB denotes the so-called indicator random variable which is equal to 1 whenever T has a value such that the condition B is satisfied and is equal to 0 otherwise. TYPES OF CONTRACTS 123 Now.9) pays a benefit only if the insured survives at least n years. With this interpretation.16) 4. the n-year deferred insurance has net single premium = n Ex · Ax+n .14) In these formulas. for an event B depending on the random lifetime T . This expected present value must therefore be equal to (4. written explicitly as sums for the case m = 1.2. Here and from now on. providing the identity: 1 Ax − Ax:n = v n n px · Ax+n (4. and endowment contracts defined above.11). combining this conversion-formula with the identity (4. .4. leading to the simplifications 1/d = 1/i + 1 . To emphasize the fact that these risk premiums depend on cohort life table quantities alone. Recall for this purpose the conditional probability mass function (4. we have made use of the definition 1/d = (1 + i)/i.2. this subsection collects the formulas for risk premiums of the insurance.2 Formulas for Net Single Premiums All of the net single premiums (or risk premiums) considered so far are computable completely in terms of of life-table quantities j px and qx+j .2) of [T − x] given T ≥ x. it can alternatively be viewed as an endowment with benefit equal to a whole life insurance to the insured (then aged x + n) after n years if the insured lives that long.

17) The index k in the summation formula denotes the year of policy time within which death occurs. for which T − x ≥ k. Putting together the formula (4.124 CHAPTER 4. n − 1. note that payments of 1 occur at all policy ages k.4) of the random term insurance payment (with level face value F (0) ≡ 1) is n−1 1 Ax:n = Ex v [T −x]+1 I{T ≤x+n} = k=0 v (k+1)/m k px qx+k (4. since the present values of these payments are v k and the payment at policy time k is made with probability k px . a contract which pays G(k) at policy time k if the insured life initially aged x survives to age x + k. of the present values v k+1 to be paid by the insurer in the event that the policy age at death falls in [k.10) provides us with a formula for the net single premium of the endowment insurance. that this event occurs. the expectation of the present value (4. .17) with the previous identity (4. multiplied by the probability.19) Finally the pure endowment has present value n Ex = Ex v n I[T −x≥n] = v n x pn (4.18) Next. to figure the expected present value of the life annuity-due with term n. k = 0. over all indices k such that k < n. . EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS IB = 1 if condition B holds .20) Most generally of all. Therefore. k + 1). and which pays F (k) at . given in formula (4.2). n−1 Ax:n = k=0 v k+1 k px − k+1 px + v n n px (4. n−1 n−1 ax:n = Ex ¨ k=0 v k I{T −x≥k} = k=0 v k k px (4. . . The summation itself is the weighted sum. = 0 if not First. k ≤ T − x < k + 1.

m > 1 At this point. and net single premium notation and formula (4.3 Risk Premiums & Relations.19) and (4. where both functions G(k) and F (k) could depend on a finite term parameter n.21) where P ([T − x] = k | T ≥ x) has been expressed as in (4. and endowment contracts defined above. life-annuity. EXTENSION TO MULTIPLE PAYMENTS PER YEAR 125 policy time k + 1 if the insured life aged x dies at age T ∈ [x + k. However the insurance. In the next section.3.2). . we return to the basic definitions of the standard insurance. and endowment-insurance contracts payable only at whole-year intervals are all slightly impractical as insurance vehicles. encompasses all of the insurances.6). It is therefore no different for general m than for m = 1. and identities to cover the case of general m-paymentperiod per year contracts. x + k + 1).7).21) are benchmarks in the sense that they represent a complete solution to the problem of determining net single premiums without the need for interpolation of the life-table survival function between integer ages. and endowments introduced so far in this Chapter. using only the standard cohort life-table data collected by integer attained ages. since it involved only a single potential payment at an integer policy time. This setting. does not require any separate discussion here. life annuities.17) and (4. The formulas (4. has net single (risk) premium equal to ω−x−1 Ex k=0 G(k) v k I{T ≥x+k} + F (k) v k+1 I{[T −x]=k} ω−x−1 = k=0 k px G(k) v k + F (k) v k+1 qx+k (4. we approach the calculation of net single premiums for the more realistic context of mperiod-per-year insurances and life annuities. in order to extend the theoretical formulas. The pure endowment contract (Endow) with present value formula (4. annuity.4. 4.

over all indices k such that k/m < n. . . k = 0. that this event occurs. (k + 1)/m) multiplied by the probability. given in formula (4. nm−1. for which T − x ≥ k/m. analogous to (4.24) The useful identities described in Section 4. Therefore. That is. Accordingly. since the present values of these payments are (1/m) v k/m and the payment at k/m is made with probability k/m px . connecting the different types of risk premiums for contracts with m = 1 payment period per year. note that payments of 1/m occur at all policy ages k/m. The first extension. . the payment of 1 occurs at policy time k/m if k/m ≤ T − x < (k + 1)/m. k/m < n.126 CHAPTER 4. Again the risk premium summation is the weighted sum. all have extensions to general m payment per year contracts. To figure the expected present value of the life annuity-due with term n. of the present values v (k+1)/m to be paid by the insurer in the event that the policy age at death falls in [k/m.3). nm−1 (m) ax:n ¨ = Ex k=0 1 k/m v I[T −x≥k/m] m 1 = m nm−1 v k/m k/m px k=0 (4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS Next we consider the pure term insurance (Insm ) with term n and m payment periods per year. Recall that the mpayment-period per year endowment insurance with term n and unit face . pays 1 at the end of the 1/m year of death. and level face amount. is the definition of endowment insurance as the superposition of a constant-face-amount term insurance with a pure endowment of the same face amount and term.2.10).1 above. if death occurs before policy time n.23) Here k/m in the summation formula denotes the beginning of the 1/m year of policy time within which death is to occur. . the present value of the insurer’s payment is nm−1 v (k+1)/m I{k/m≤T −x<(k+1)/m} k=0 (4. Recall that this contract. with unit face amount.22) and the net single premium or expected present value is nm−1 A(m)1 x:n = k=0 v (k+1)/m k/m px 1/m qx+k/m (4.

. n) d(m) = 1 − Ax:n d(m) (m) (4. With m payments per year.26) The general identity (4. n) = (1 − v min(Tm −x+1/m.27) where recall that Ex ( · ) denotes the conditional expectation E( · | T ≥ x). . the notational identity is m(ω−x)−1 (m) Ax:n = A(m)1 x:n +A (m) 1 x:n = k=0 v min((k+1)/m. and substituting the notation (m) Ax:n then yields: a ¨ x:n = Ex (m) 1 − v min(Tm−x+1/m. An algebraically equivalent form of the identity (4. the term-n life annuity-due payout is given via formula (2.11) concerning the relation between expected present values of endowment insurances and life annuities also extends straightforwardly.25) with the formula (4. conditionally given T ≥ x) in the present value formula. Taking expectations (over values of the random variable T . n) of the unit endowment insurance.27) is d(m) ax:n + Ax:n = 1 ¨ (m) (m) (4.4) by amin(T ¨ (m) m −x+1/m.3. .4. . and the individual payments of 1/m again totalling 1 per year. EXTENSION TO MULTIPLE PAYMENTS PER YEAR 127 amount pays 1 at policy time (k + 1)/m if k/m ≤ T − x < (k + 1)/m for k = 0. n) ) / d(m) Again the unit life annuity-due has present value which is a simple linear function of the present value v min(Tm−x+1/m.23) for Insurance: nm−1 Ax:n = k=0 (m) v (k+1)/m k/m px − (k+1)/m px + v n n px (4. The present value of the payout clearly has the single epxression v min(Tm −x+1/m. nm − 1. n) . In terms of net single premiums. 1. and pays 1 at policy time n if T ≥ x + n.28) . n) k/m px 1/m qx+k/m (4.25) nm−1 = k=0 v (k+1)/m k/m px 1/m qx+k/m + v n n px Again we find a formula for the endowment insurance by a combining the identity (4.

(m) d i i(m) i(m) = v −1/m = 1+ d(m) m We conclude this section with a general formula extending (4.128 CHAPTER 4. and m payments per year consists of payments 1/m at each of the policy times k/m such that 1 ≤ k ≤ nm and k/n ≤ T − x. . the idea for converting from risk premiums of life annuities-due to life annuities immediate is very similar to the idea behind the conversion formula (4. .n)+1/m m m (4. term n years. ¨ establishing the identity ax:n = ax:n+1/m − ¨ (m) (m) 1 (m) ¨ = Ex amin(T −x. for all integers k = 0. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS For multiple payment periods per year.31) In these formulas. pays m Gx (k/m) at policy time k/m if the insured life initially aged x survives to age x+k/m.30) − − (m) m d m i d d(m) ax:n + Ax:n+1/m = (m) (m) (m) and d(m) = v 1/m i(m) (4. we have made use of the definition m/ d(m) = (1 + i(m)/m) (i(m)/m) leading to the simplifications m m = (m) + 1 . m(ω−x)−1. we directly obtain an identity relating the net single premium for life annuities-immediate with m payment periods per year to that of the m payment period endowment insurances.21). 1. The corresponding payment stream for an annuity-due with term n + 1/m is exaxtly the same. . The result is (m) ax:n = (m) ax:n+1/m ¨ 1 − Ax:n+1/m 1 1 1 1 (m) = = (m) − (m) Ax:n+1/m (4. . The payment stream for the unit annuity-immediate to a life aged x with payment of 1 per year. . A 1 contract which. Therefore the respective expected present values ax:n and (m) ax:n+1/m differ by exactly the present value of that initial payment of 1/m. except that the latter omits the initial payment of 1/m (m) at time 0.29) From this m-payment-period conversion formula.13) for m = 1.

4.3. EXTENSION TO MULTIPLE PAYMENTS PER YEAR

129

and which pays Fx (k/m) at policy time (k + 1)/m if the insured life aged x dies within the exact-age interval T ∈ [x + k/m, x + (k + 1)/m), has net single (risk) premium equal to
m(ω−x)−1

Ex
k=0 m(ω−x)−1

1 Gx (k/m) v k/m I{T −x≥k/m} + Fx (k/m) v (k+1)/m I{Tm−x=k/m} m 1 Gx (k) v k/m + Fx(k/m) v (k+1)/m 1/m qx+k/m m

=
k=0

k/m px

(4.32)

See the Worked Examples (numbers 3 and 4) for illustrations of numerical calculations with the standard formulas (4.22) and (4.24), as well as the general formula (4.32). The idea behind equation (4.32) can also be used to express the net single premium of a life insurance or annuity in a varying interest rate environment. Following the ideas of Sections 1.2.4 and 1.2.5, we know that the present valueof a unit payment at policy time t under a time-varying instantaneous interest rate r(s) ≡ exp(δ(s)) − 1 (expressed in terms of the policy timet argument s) is 1/A(t) = exp(− 0 δ(s) ds). Then the present value of a term insurance of duration n with level payment amount F at policy time (k + 1)/m if the insured life aged x dies within the exact-age interval T ∈ [x + k/m, x + (k + 1)/m), 0 ≤ k < nm, is given by
(k+1)/m

F · exp −
0

δ(s) ds I{Tm=x+k/m} =

F I{k/m≤T −x<(k+1)/m} A((k + 1)/m)

Similarly, the present value of a temporary life annuity due of duration n 1 which makes level payments of amount m G at all policy times k/m ≤ min(T − x, n), is G · m
nm−1 j/m

exp −
j=0 0

δ(s) ds I{j/m≤T −x}

G = m

nm−1

j=0

1 I{j/m≤T −x} A(k/m)

Then the net single premium of a contract which pays G/m at policy time k/m ≤ n if the insured life initially aged x survives to age x + k/m, and which pays F at policy time (k + 1)/m ≤ n if the insured life aged x

130

CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS

dies within the exact-age interval T ∈ [x + k/m, x + (k + 1)/m), is the expectation of the sum of the last two displayed expressions, and is given by
nm−1 k/m px k=0

G F + 1/m qx+k/m m · A(k/m) A((k + 1)/m)

(4.33)

4.4

Interpolation Formulas in Risk Premiums

A key issue in understanding the special nature of life insurances and annuities with multiple payment periods is the calculation of these probabilities from the underlying probabilities j py (for integers j, y) which can be deduced or estimated from life-tables. In the present Section, we combine the Actuarial Assumption — (i) of Chapter 3, saying that deaths are uniformly distributed within whole year of age — with the insurance and (temporary) life annuity-due risk premium formulas. In this setting, the number m of payment periods per year is greater than 1, and by formula (3.23) for all integers j = 0, 1, . . . , m − 1:
j/m px

= 1 − j/m qx = 1 − (j/m) qx =
j/m px

so that
j/m px 1/m qx+j/m

(j+1)/m px

= (1/m) qx

For any integer k = bm + j, where 0 ≤ l < m − 1 and b is an integer,
k/m px 1/m qx+k/m

= b px ( j/m px+b −

(j+1)/m px+b )

= (1/m) b px qx+b

(4.34)

Substituting (4.34) into (4.23) with summation indices k = bm + j, gives
n−1 m−1

A(m)1 x:n

=
b=0 j=0

v b+(j+1)/m b+j/m px 1/m qx+b+j/m 1 m
n−1 m−1

= 1 m
m−1

v b b px qx+b
b=0 j=0

v (j+1)/m
n−1

=

v (j+1)/m
j=0

· (1 + i)
b=0

v b+1 b px qx+b

4.4. INTERPOLATION FORMULAS IN RISK PREMIUMS

131

The two factors in parentheses in the final displayed expression are respec(m) and the onetively the one-year annuity-immediate present value a1 1 payment-per-year term insurance risk-premium Ax:n . Since (1 + i) a1
(m)

= (1 + i) (1 − v)/i(m) = i/i(m)

it follows that under interpolation assumption (i),
n−1

A(m)1 x:n

= (i/i

(m)

)
b=0

1 v b+1 b px qx+b = (i/i(m)) Ax:n

(4.35)

Similarly, formula (4.34) substituted into the temporary life annuity formula (4.24) with summation index k = bm + j gives
(m) ¨ x:n a

1 = m

n−1 m−1

v
b=0 j=0

b+j/m

j/m px+b

· b px

1 = m

n−1

m−1

v b px
b=0 m−1 j=0

b

v j/m (1−

j qx+b ) m (4.36)

1 = m

m−1

v
j=0

j/m

ax:n ¨

1+i − m2

1 j v j/m Ax:n j=0

This formula can be reduced further in either of two ways. First, one can appeal to the definition of increasing temporary annuity-due and refer to the formula given in paragraph (iv) of Section 2.1.1: 1 m2 = (I (m)a)1 ¨
m−1

jv
j=0

j/m

1 = 2 m

m−1

(j + 1) v j/m −
j=0

1 (m) a ¨ m 1 (4.37)

1−v 1 = (m) (m) md d Alternatively, using the identity
(m)

1−v 1−v −v − (m) d m

Ax:n = A(m)1 + v n n px x:n within (4.27), and directly substituting (4.35), yields under (i) ax:n = ¨
(m)

(m)

1 d(m)

1 −

i i(m)

1 Ax:n − v n n px

(4.38)

We leave as an Exercise for the interested reader to verify algebraically, using (4.37) together with (4.11), that the formulas (4.36) and (4.38) are equal.

In the limit as m gets large. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS 4. n ≥ 1. Since the displayed expectation formulas are exactly valid when applied to the function g([tM ]/M. ω]. so that g(t)−g([tM ]/M can be made uniformly small by choice of a sufficiently large multiple M of m. it follows also for the general continuous function g that ω−x Ex (g(T )) = lim Ex (g(TM )) = M →∞ 0 g(x + s) f (x + s) ds S(x) (4.40) .132 CHAPTER 4.3) as the probability mass function for Tm .39) or. m(ω−x)−1 Ex (g(T )) = k=0 g(x + k/m) k/m px 1/mpx+k/m where we have used (4. first in the setting of one payment period per year (m = 1) and then in the case of multiple payment periods (m > 1) per year. with the substitution f (x + s) = µ(x + s) S(x + s). note that for any function g(T ) which depends on T only through the last completed 1/m’th year Tm = [T m]/m. the risk premium formulas become expected present values calculated as continuous integrals with respect to survival densities. The displayed expectation formula is then also valid with m replaced by any integer multiple M = mn. ω−x Ex (g(T )) = 0 g(x + s) µ(x + s) S(x + s) ds S(x) (4.5 Continuous Risk Premium Formulas The present chapter has developed formulas for the net single premiums or risk premiums of the principal life insurance and annuity contracts. To recall why this limit exists. and has the equivalent expression M (ω−x)−1 k=0 g(x + k/M) S(x) x+(k+1)/M x+(k+1)/M f (t) dt x+k/M ω−x 1 = S(x) M (ω−x)−1 g(t) f (t) dt = k=0 x+k/M 0 g(x + s) f (x + s) ds S(x) Assume now that the function g(t) is continuous (and therefore uniformly continuous) on the bounded lifetime interval [0.

4. However. or to calculate other expectations of demographic and biostatistical interest. 4. CONTINUOUS RISK PREMIUM FORMULAS 133 Similar justifications can be given for these expectation formulas also whenever g is piecewise continuous. where v = (1 + i)−1 and δ = ln(1 + i) . These integral formulas can be used either to calculate the limiting values of expected present values for insurance contracts with large m. is amin(T −x. an instantaneous-payment or continuous insurance with face-value F is a contract which pays an amount F at the instant of death of the insured. as a function of the exact age T at death for an annuitant initially of exact integer age x. n) where n is the (possibly infinite) duration of the life annuity. such as life expectancies.) As a function of the random lifetime T for the insured life initially with exact integer age x. Here the present value of the contractual payments. Recall that ∞ K aK = 0 v t I[t≤K] dt = 0 v t dt = (1 − v K )/δ is the present value of a continuous payment stream of 1 per unit time of duration K units. Insurance and Annuity contracts can also be defined with respectively instantaneous and continuous payments. this means that when the actual payment is made at some later time.1 Continuous Insurance Contracts So far in this Chapter. The expected present values or net single premiums on a life aged x are respectively denoted Ax for a whole-life contract 1 and Ax:n for an n-year term insurance. First.5.5. ¯ ¯ The objective of this section is to develop and interpret formulas for the . The continuous life annuity is a contract which provides continuous payments at rate 1 per unit time for duration equal to the smaller of the remaining lifetime of the annuitant or the term of n years. (In practice. the amount paid is F together with interest compounded from the instant of death. all of the expectations considered have been associated with the discretized random lifetime variables [T ] and Tm = [mT ]/m. the present value of the amount paid is F · v T −x for a whole-life insurance and F · v T −x · I[T <x+n] for an n-year term insurance. The actuarial notation for the net single premium of the temporary continuous life annuity is ax:n which simplifies to ax when n = ∞. as follows.

Ax . .39) or (4. namely the mean residual life (also called complete life expectancy) ˚x = Ex (T − x) for a life aged x.5. v y−x . e 4. the integral formulas for these three cases are: ∞ ˚x = Ex (T − x) = e 0 ∞ s µ(x + s) s px ds v s µ(x + s) s px ds 0 n (4. or v y−x · I{y−x<n} which respectively have the conditional Ex (·) expectations ˚x e .43) = Ex v T −x I{T −x≤n} = 0 v s µ(x + s) s px ds Next. 1 Ax:n For easy reference.2 Integral Formulas We apply the continuous conditional expectation formulas (4.134 CHAPTER 4.40) directly for the three choices g(y) = y−x . we obtain two additional formulas. along with one further quantity which has been defined as a continuous-time expectation of the lifetime variable T . EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS continuous-time net single premiums.42) (4. for continuous life annuities-due ax and ax:n which correspond to Ex {g(T )} for the two choices ω−x n g(t) = 0 v y I{y+x≤t} dy or 0 v y I{y+x≤t} dy where we naturally assume that x + n ≤ ω in the case of the temporary life annuity.41) Ax = Ex (v T −x) = 1 Ax:n (4.

45) ax:n = Ex = As seen above in (4.43).e. in the form Ex I{y≤T −x} = P (T ≥ x + s | T ≥ x) = S(x + y) = y px S(x) the resulting two equations become ω−x ω−x ax = Ex 0 n v y I{y≤T −x} dt v I{y≤T −x} dy 0 y = 0 n v y y px dy v y y px dy 0 (4.19) either from (4.46) also converges for large m to the leftmost term. the term insurance net single premiums A(m)1 = Ex v Tm −x+1/m x:n approach the continuous insurance value (4. and evaluating the conditional expectation of an indicator as a conditional probability. risk premiums for continuous insurance and annuity contracts have a close relationship to the corresponding contracts with m payment periods per year for large m.45) can be obtained as a limit of formulas (4.39) or by using Riemann sums. For the continuous annuity.42) as a limit when m → ∞. nm−1 ax:n = lim m→∞ (m) ax:n ¨ = lim m→∞ k=0 1 k/m v k/m px = m n v t t px ds 0 The final formula coincides with (4. i. (4.4.44) (4. That is. as the number m of payments per year goes to ∞.46) Since the right-hand term in the inequality (4. so that the following obvious inequalities hold: 1 1 Ax:n ≤ A(m)1 ≤ v 1/m Ax:n x:n (4. A simple direct proof can be given because the payments at the end of the fraction 1/m of year of death are at most 1/m years later than the continuous-insurance payment at the instant of death. CONTINUOUS RISK PREMIUM FORMULAS 135 After switching the order of the integrals and the conditional expectations.5. the middle term which is sandwiched in between must converge to the same limit (4.39).. according with the intuition that the limit as m → ∞ of the payment-stream which pays 1/m at intervals of time .45).

T − x). there are simple formulas relating Ax:n 1 and ax:n to Ax:n . the complete life expectancy ˚x in (4. The comparison between complete and curtate life expectancies under more general withinyear survival distributions in subsection 4.38).48) Finally. (4.45) can be contrasted with the respective expectations (3.5.28).5.17) and (4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS 1/m between 0 and Tm − x inclusive is the continuous payment-stream which pays 1 per unit time throughout the policy-age interval [0. under (i) ¯ ¯ Ax:n = lim A(m)1 = lim x:n m→∞ m i i(m) 1 Ax:n = i 1 A δ x:n (4.4 below.28) that ¯ δ ax:n + Ax:n = 1 ¯ (4.43). . The expressions in formulas (4.41).3 Risk Premiums under Theoretical Models Let us work out examples of the multiple time-period per year and continuous formulas analytically and numerically.136 CHAPTER 4. also under (i).35). ¨ ax:n = lim ax:n = lim ¯ m→∞ m (m) 1 d(m) 1 − i i(m) 1 Ax:n − v n n px or ax:n = ¯ i 1 1 1 − Ax:n − v n n px δ δ (4. and (4.49) More elaborate relations will be given in the next Chapter between net single premium formulas which do require interpolation-assumptions for probabilities of survival to times between integer ages to formulas for m = 1. which do not require such interpolation.47) and by (4. by (4. Indeed. The limiting argument of the previous paragraph shows immediately that ¯ under interpolation assumption (i).41) is compared to the curtate life e expectancy ex under interplation assumption (i) in (3. it is easy to see by passing to the limit m → ∞ in (4. (4. 4. under a particular theoretical survival model.12). In particular.19) for a function of the integer-valued random variable [T ] (taking m = 1).

γ n ax:n = ¯ 0 v s e−λs ds γ Finally.42). (m) ax:n ¨ = k=0 j=0 v k+j/m e−λ (k+j/m) γ The continuous cases (m = ∞) of these formulas are as follows: n ¯1 Ax:n = 0 v s λγ sγ−1 e−λs ds . the special Weibull-lifetime temporary life annuity-due risk premiums for finite m are: n−1 n−1 m−1 a ¨ x:n = k=0 v e k −λ k γ .41) the curtate and complete life expectancies at integer ages y ≥ x for Weibull (residual) lifetimes are: ∞ ∞ ex = k=0 k (e−λk − e−λ(k+1) ) . ∞.11) and (4.4. and (4. with force of mortality for T given by µ(x + s) = λ γ sγ−1 . (4. according to formulas (3.44).19). CONTINUOUS RISK PREMIUM FORMULAS 137 Consider first the slightly artificial (but still useful) case where the residual life T − x for a life aged x is precisely Weibull(γ. and (4. 4.5. for m = 1.17). qx+k = 1 − exp(−λ{(k + 1)γ − k γ }) Then respectively according to formulas (4. (4. we give an R function for Weibull-lifetime term insurance risk premiums: . and s px = e−λ s γ for all s ≥ 0 .23). we find formulas for term-insurance finite-m net single premiums under Weibull survival as follows: n−1 1 Ax:n = k=0 v k+1 (e−λk − e−λ(k+1) ) γ γ n−1 m−1 A(m)1 = x:n k=0 v k+1/m j=0 v j/m (e−λ(k+j/m) − e−λ(k+(j+1)/m) ) γ γ According to formulas (4. λ) distributed. First.24). γ γ ˚x = e 0 s λγ sγ−1 eλs ds γ We next give R code and a table showing some numerical comparisons of these insurance and life-annuity risk premiums.

925 = . n.05.925. we begin by coding a function to solve for λ. termIns.65. . in the R code to produce this Table.50) lambda gamma 1.6. gamma.5405.05 or 0. age2) { ### Function to solve for lambda and gamma Weibull ### parameters. . n. 50 p40 = .v^s*s^(.pi2.m = Insm.. with parameters (λ. when S(age1)=pi1. S(age2)=pi2 are fixed.lam.04324 as in Figure 2.32. and continuous ins v = 1/(1+i) xk = 0:(n-1) Ins1 = v*sum( v^xk*(exp(-lambda*xk^gamma)exp(-lambda*(xk+1)^gamma)) ) xkjm = (0:(n*m-1))/m Insm = v^(1/m)* sum( v^xkjm*(exp(-lambda*xkjm^gamma) exp(-lambda*(xkjm+1/m)^gamma)) ) InsC = lambda*gamma*integrate(function(s. 50p40 = . γ) when π1 = 32p40 .0.5/. age1.5. > LamGam = function(pi1..v=v..925.653e+00 . we create a small Table of values for a few different values of n. γ) similar to those used in Chapter 2. or (c) 32p40 = .04/. The interest rates considered here are 0. and n = 20.047.138 CHAPTER 4.gam-1)*exp(-. m paymts. i) { ## Function to calculate term-n insurance risk prem ### for 1 paymt per year.gam=gamma)$val c(termIns. 50p40 = . π2 = 50p40 are given.06.lam*s^(.v.1 = Ins1. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS > WeibIns = function(lambda.952e-06 3. (b) 32p40 = .5/. haz1 = -log(pi1) . haz2 = -log(pi2) gam = log(haz2/haz1)/log(age2/age1) lam = haz1/age1^gam c(lambda=lam. the nominal age x is 40.. termIns.cont = InsC) } To illustrate the use of this function.925 = . gamma=gam) } > LamGam(.lam=lambda. .gam) .04/. In each case.gam)). m. but chosen successively so that (a) 32p40 = .

lamgam[2].5).04962 [2. "Ins..c(.715e-07 4.009 0.02924 0.6.20.653 0. .715e-07 4.04/.6).06 0.653 0.lamgam[2].009 0. "i".] 4.04960 139 > InsArr = array(0.04846 0.952e-6.2]) [1] 0.02479 0.cont 0.] 1.] = c(lamgam[1].m termIns.5/. WeibIns(lamgam[1].3.05)) for(a in 1:2) for (b in 1:3) { k = 2*(b-1)+a > lamgam=LamGam(sprobs[b..1 termIns.03396 0. "Ins.047).] 1. "gamma". .07467 0.653.05) termIns.04278 0.952e-06 3.06) sprobs = rbind(c(.02151 The variations among the parameters and interest rates make much more difference to the results than does the number m of payment periods per year.sprobs[b.05435 A similar Table of risk premiums for temporary life annuities-due. which (for odd-numbered rows) takes the three values > 1-exp(-AnnuArr[c(1.5).1].03008 [5.C"))) intrat = c(.05 0.3.04189 0. c("lambda". dimnames=list(NULL. Note that the overall size of the risk premium for a unit 20-year term insurance is reasonable.intrat[a])) } InsArr lambda gamma i Ins. "Ins.02494 [6.1". dim=c(6.02436 0.02986 0.06 0.1 Ins.4.32.] 4.04844 0. with exactly the same parameters.345 0.02091 0.] 1.04932 0.50) InsArr[k.02135 0.c(..65.10461 0.3.06 0.03457 0.05 0.04930 0..2].925).] 1.925.4.m".345 0.241e-07 4.05 0. because the probability it will pay anything at all is 20 q40 .05.20.1]*20^AnnuArr[c(1.04309 [3.m Ins.952e-06 3.C [1.4.5.intrat[a].03478 [4. is given below along with the R code for the life-annuity function calculation. CONTINUOUS RISK PREMIUM FORMULAS > WeibIns(1.241e-07 4.

m.140 CHAPTER 4.12) respectively provide the complete and curtate agespecific life expectancies.4.lam*s^(.] 1.72 11.cont = AnnuC) } > AnnuArr = InsArr dimnames(AnnuArr)[[2]][4:6]=c("Annu.64 [4."Annu.06 11.] 4.0.gam=gamma)$val c(tmpAnn. n.05 12. gamma.82 11.intrat[a]) } AnnuArr lambda gamma i Annu.v^s*exp(-.952e-06 3.69 [5.65 12.78 11.00 12.41) or (3.009 0.2].1].C [1.06 12. and continuous ins v = 1/(1+i) xk = 0:(n-1) Annu1 = sum( v^xk*exp(-lambda*xk^gamma) ) xkjm = (0:(n*m-1))/m Annum = sum( v^xkjm*exp(-lambda*xkjm^gamma) )/m AnnuC = integrate(function(s.06 12.sprobs[b..32.gam) .v.009 0.1 = Annu1.] 4.345 0. ..96 12.m = Annum.50) AnnuArr[k. .] 1."Annu.C") for(a in 1:2) for (b in 1:3) { k = 2*(b-1)+a lamgam=LamGam(sprobs[b.4:6] = WeibAnnD(lamgam[1].] 1.1".241e-07 4. n.952e-06 3.241e-07 4.99 11. . i) { ## Function to calculate term-n insurance risk prem ### for 1 paymt per year.63 [3.4 Numerical Calculations of Life Expectancies Formulas (4. in terms respectively of survival densities and life- .90 12.] 1.20.56 [2. Examples of formula development for other special parametric distributional families are contained in the Exercises.v=v.68 [6.. tmpAnn.lam.653 0. 4.05 13.5.m Annu.715e-07 4.72 12.73 Life expectancy calculations and comparisons are done in the next subsection. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS > WeibAnnD = function(lambda. m paymts.m".lam=lambda.1 Annu.715e-07 4.gam)).09 11.76 12.345 0.05 11. for Gompertz survival.05 12. tmpAnn.653 0.lamgam[2].

28) provides the actuarial approximation for complete life expectancy in terms of life-table data. According to that extrapolation.1. based upon interpolationassumption (i) (Uniform mortality within year of age).4. beyond that they will be very sparse and very dependent on the particular small group(s) of aged individuals used in constructing the particular table(s).0436. This exponential behavior is approximately but not precisely compatible with a Gompertz-form force-of-mortality function µ(78 + t) = µ(78) ct in light of the approximate equality µ(x) ≈ qx. the fraction of the cohort at moderate ages who will survive past 90.10) of the illustrative life table data from Table 1.0885). so a reasonable extrapolation of a well-established table out to age 105 or so may give sufficiently accurate life-expectancy values at ages not exceeding 105.0885 in our setting. . To see this. All of the numerical life-expectancy calculations produced for the Figure of this Section are based on the extrapolation (2. (c − 1)/ ln c = 1. Life expectancies are in any case forecasts based upon an implicit assumption of future mortality following exactly the same pattern as recent past mortality. Thus an assertion of great accuracy for a particular method of calculation would be misplaced. In this Section. death-rates qx for all ages 78 and greater are taken to grow exponentially. note that under a Gompertz survival model.1. is extremely small. Life-expectancy calculations necessarily ignore likely changes in living conditions and medical technology which many who are currently alive will experience. an approximation which progressively becomes less valid as the force of mortality gets larger. Life expectancy formulas necessarily involve life table data and/or survival distributions specified out to arbitrarily large ages. Formula (3. CONTINUOUS RISK PREMIUM FORMULAS 141 table data. On the other hand. we illustrate these formulas using the Illustrative simulated and extrapolated life-table data of Table 1. µ(x) = Bcx . say. qx = 1 − exp −Bcx c−1 ln c and with c = 1.5. with log(qx/q78 ) = (x − 78) ln(1. While life tables may be based on large cohorts of insured for ages up to the seventies and even eighties.

24).50) The complete minus curtate life expectancies calculated from this formula were found range from 0. down to 0. so would be still larger today. 1.142 CHAPTER 4. as plotted points. Figure 4. its calculation is simplest and most easily interpreted. and interpolation assumption (ii).16) of piecewise-constant force of mortality within years of age. . and force of mortality is d ln t px+k = − ln px+k dt Using formulas (4. the exact formula for the difference between complete and curtate life expectancy becomes µ(x + k + t) = − ω−x−1 k+1 k px k=0 ω−x−1 k 1 k px (− ln px+k ) k=0 ω−x−1 0 ˚x − ex = e s µ(x + s) s−k px+k ds − k qx+k = (k + t) et ln px+k dt − k qx+k = k=0 k px (− ln px+k ) ω−x−1 (k + 1)px+k − k px+k − 1 − ln px+k (ln px+k )2 k px − k qx+k = k=0 − px+k − qx+k ln px+k (4. mortality within year of age (0 < t < 1) is t t px+k = (px+k ) .485 at age 78 and 0. under assumption (ii) (from Chapter 3. The aspect of Figure 4.348 at age 99. Since the complete life expectancy at each age is larger than the curtate by exactly 1/2 under interpolation assumption (i).) Thus there is essentially no new information in the calculated complete life expectancies. (3.1 presents. the age-specific curtate life expectancies for integer ages x = 0. .12) relies directly on (extrapolated) lifetable data. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS Since curtate life expectancy (3. (Contrast this result with the constant difference of 1/2 under assumption (i). by formula (3. 78. Under this assumption. we calculated for comparison the complete life expectancy at all (realnumber) ages. as in equation 3. and they are not plotted. . the large life expectancies shown are comparable to actual US male mortality circa 1959. . Moreover.12).493 at ages 40 and below.1 which is most startling to the intuition is the large expected numbers of additional birthdays for individuals of advanced ages. .41).

10). with age-specific death-rates qx extrapolated as indicated in formula (2. by age 70 •••• 60 •• •• •• •• •• •• •• 50 •• Curtate Life Expectancy •• •• •• •• 40 •• •• •• •• •• 30 •• •• •• •• •• •• 20 •• •• •• •• •• •• •• •• 10 •• ••• ••• ••• •• 80 0 20 40 Age in years 60 Figure 4.5. .1: Curtate life expectancy ex as a function of age.4. calculated from the simulated illustrative life table data of Table 1.1. CONTINUOUS RISK PREMIUM FORMULAS 143 Expected number of additional whole years of life.

.325). (a) Find the net single whole-life insurance premium Ax for this person.03 for t ≥ 50.025 Assume the fixed interest rate r = 0. (a) Find the expected present value. 1. i.00634. with respect to the constant effective interest rate r = 0. (b) Find the expected present value of the insurance payment in (a) if the insurer is allowed to delay the payment to the end of the year in which the individual dies.05 e−0.144 CHAPTER 4. and µt = 0.07. and is certain to die within this time. and/or numerical integrations via calculators or software.6 Exercise Set 4 (1). s > 0. 1. If the individual in Problem 2 pays a life insurance premium P at the beginning of each remaining year of his life (including this one).00634 t1. . you should be prepared to use integrations by parts. then what is the expected total present value of all the premiums he pays before his death ? (4). (2). with S(t) = 1 − Φ((log(t) − log(50))/0. gamma function values. of an insurance payment of $1000 to be made at the instant of death of an individual who has just turned 40 and whose remaining lifetime T − 40 = S is a continuous random variable with density f (s) = 0. (i) Weibull(.05 s . . In these integrals.2 ). Suppose that an individual has equal probability of dying within each of the next 40 years. 39 k px − k+1 px = 0.e.06. 0.3252 ). . and (b) 7/12q40/q40 . For each of the following three lifetime distributions. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS 4. with S(t) = exp(−0.015 for 20 < t ≤ 50. (iii) Piecewise exponential with force of mortality given the constant value µt = 0. . 1 Ax:20 (b) Find the net single premium for the term and endowment insurances and Ax:30 . tables of the normal distribution function Φ(x). his age is x and for k = 0. find (a) the expected remaining lifetime for an individual aged 20. . (ii) Lognormal(log(50). Should this answer be larger or smaller than the answer in (a) ? (3).2).

Find the probability of an individual aged 72 in this life-table population dying between ages 75. payable at the end of the year of death along with interest from the beginning of that same year) satisfies the recursion relation (4. e .4.0. (8).51) above. Show that the expected present value bx of an insurance of 1 payable at the beginning of the year of death (or equivalently.0 and 83.0.16) algebraically. 000.0001 · t for 40 ≤ t Then (a) find 30 p10 . For the next two problems. Prove the identity (4. and (b) find ˚50. EXERCISE SET 4 145 (5).001 for 5 ≤ t < 20 µt =   .0 and 78. l85 = 0. (b) assuming linearity of 1/S(t)) within 5-year age intervals. l80 = 3000. Find (a) ˚75 and (b) the probability of an individual aged 70 in e this life-table population dying between ages 72. Show that the expected whole number of years of remaining life for a life aged x is given by ω−x−1 cx = E([T ] − x | T ≥ x) = k=0 k k px qx+k and prove that this quantity as a function of integer age x satisfies the recursion equation cx = px (1 + cx+1 ) (6). (10).6. l75 = 7000. Suppose that a population has survival probabilities governed at all ages by the force of mortality  for 0 ≤ t < 1  .002 for 1 ≤ t < 5  . if the assumption of uniform deathtimes within 5-year intervals is replaced by: (a) a constant force of mortality within 5-year age-intervals. (9). and that the distribution of death-times within 5-year age intervals is uniform. (7). consider a cohort life-table population for which you know only that l70 = 10.004 for 20 ≤ t < 40    .01    .

e (12). 96. n. and (b) find ˚30 . 000 for college at her 18th birthday if she lives that long and $500. An n-year term life insurance policy to a life aged x provides that if the insured dies within the n-year period an annuity-certain of yearly payments of 10 will be paid to the beneficiary. (a) Calculate the average number of future years of life for an individual who survives to age 1. Assume x + n ≤ ω. and 97 are respectively 0.146 CHAPTER 4. and if mortality follows the law lx = C(ω − x)/ω for some terminal integer age ω and constant C. The child is to receive $100. (16).01 .1 µt =  3/t Then (a) find 30p20 = the probability that an individual aged 20 survives for at least 30 more years. Suppose that a population ages by the force of mortality   .09. 0 ≤ x ≤ 10. You are given a survival function S(x) = (10 − x)2 /100 . The father of a newborn child purchases an endowment and insurance contract with the following combination of benefits. and the father as beneficiary is to receive $200. and the probability that a life aged 1 dies before age 2. and 0. N) denotes the net single premium (= expected present value) for this policy. Assuming the same force of mortality as in the previous problem.3. n. 000 at her 60th birthday if she lives that long.4. 000 at the end of the year of the child’s death if the child . What is the probability that an impaired life age 95 will live to age 98 ? (14). ω. with the first annuity payment made on the policy-anniversary following death. and the last payment made on the N th policy anniversary. N. find ˚70 and A60 if i = 0. The standard rates qx of mortality at ages 95. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS has survival probabilities governed at all for 0 ≤ t < 10 for 10 ≤ t < 30 for 30 ≤ t (11).5 . The force of mortality for impaired lives is three times the standard force of mortality at all ages. Here 1 < n ≤ N are fixed integers. n. N) in terms of interest-rate functions. e (13). then find a simplified expression for B(x. and the integers x. If B(x. (b) Calculate the difference between the force of mortality at age 1. (15). 0.

for the net single premium for this contract. 10] and i = . (18). . 4) distribution for T −x.4. EXERCISE SET 4 147 dies before age 18. Verify algebraically. 0 ≤ t ≤ 10 and not only on the values for integer t. in a variable interest rate environment with instantaneous force of interest δ(t) at policy time t.6. 10]. .06 for policy ages in (10. that the righthand sides of formulas (4. and that it is believed that interest rates will vary over the 10-year interval according to the rule δ(t) = δ · (1 + 0.5.33) to derive an analogous formula for the net single premium. concerning insurance contract risk premiums in a variable interest rate environment. m = 1) depends on the survival distribution only through the cohort life table quantities k px for integers k = 1. Suppose that a life aged x wants to purchase a 20-year term insurance now. For the next four problems.e.002 t).3 to aid in the calculation. Pass to the limit m → ∞ in formula (4.37) together with (4. Suppose that a life aged x wants to purchase a 10-year term insurance or temporary annuity-due. Find expressions. and that interest rates over the next twenty years will be i = .38) are equal. . apply formula (4. (20). Find the net single premium for a unit term insurance (i. Show that the net single premium for a unit 10-year term insurance or a unit temporary life annuity-due. using (4. both in actuarial notations and in terms of v = 1/(1 + i) and of the survival probabilities k p0 for the child. (21). 20].. of a contract for a life aged x paying a continuous-time stream at rate G at all policy times t < min(T − x. if the insurance payment is 1) if survival is governed by the Weibull(2 · 10−6 .) (19). (You may use the formulas and R code of section 4.e. .07 for policy ages in (0. n) and paying a lump-sum amount F at the instant of death if death occurs before age x + n.. with one payment period per year (i.04 for policy ages in (6.11). Suppose that a life aged x wants to purchase a 10-year term insurance. (17). and that interest rates over the next ten years will be i = .36) and (4. 10. Show that the net single premium for a unit 10-year term insurance depends on the continuous conditional survival probabilities t px . 6] and i = . 2. .05 for policy ages in (0.33).

98 − 700 + 314.) Assume that the rate of interest i = . (That is.09. 5) [5.749 0.844 0. Toy Life-Table (assuming uniform failures) Consider the following life-table with only six equally-spaced ages.9174 and (1 − e−δ )/δ = (1 − v)/δ = 0. 2) [2.17) as 1000 A 1 = 1000 0.2 3.148 CHAPTER 4. for a life aged 0. First.26 = 1320.958 Using the data in this Table.5 Ax 0.917)2 860 860 = 1705. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS 4. and interest rate i = . so that v = 1/(1 + i) = 0.917)3 1000 1000 1000 = 199.896 0. 6) lx 1000 940 860 760 640 500 dx 60 80 100 120 140 500 ex 4.7 Worked Examples Example 1. the 3-year Endowment for $700 has present value 1 700 A2:3 = 700 · (0. a 3-year term insurance with payoff amount $1000 has present value given by formula (4.26 860 Thus we can also calculate (for the life aged 2) the present value of the 3-year annuity-immediate of $700 per year as 1 700 · ¨ 2:3 − 1 + A0:3 a = 1705.9174)3 500 = 314.917 760 640 + (0. for a life aged 2. a 3-year temporary annuity-due of $700 per year (with last payment at age 4) has present value computed from (4. and endowment. we begin by calculating the expected present values for simple contracts for term insurance. x 0 1 2 3 4 5 Age-range [0.19) to be 700 a2:3 = 700 ¨ 1 + 0.917)2 + (0. 1) [1.09.24 .917 0:3 60 80 100 + (0. 4) [4.436 2. 3) [3.98 For the same life aged 2.60 Second.0 1. assume l6 = 0. annuity.795 0.709 2.9582.281 0.704 0.

This payment stream.9582 bx where bx is the expected present value of an insurance of 1 payable at the beginning of the year of death (so that Ax = v bx ) and satisfies b5 = 1 together with the recursion-relation 5−x bx = k=0 k px qx+k v k = px v bx+1 + qx (4.1. together with the observation that j px · qx+j = lx+j dx+j dx+j · = lx lx+j lx to show how the last two columns of the Table were computed. Now apply the present value formula for continuous insurance to find 5−x Ax = k=0 1 − e−δ = 0. .9582 k px qx+k v δ k 5−x k px qx k=0 v k = 0.709 860 860 860 860 2 860 Moreover: observe that cx = 5−x k k px qx+k satisfies the “recursion equak=0 tion” cx = px (1 + cx+1 ) (cf. WORKED EXAMPLES 149 We next apply and interpret the formulas of Section 4.4.41) e2 = 120 140 500 1 1900 100 ·0+ ·1+ ·2+ ·3+ = + 0. 1. .7. which pays F (k) = C an−k if death occurs at any exact ages ¨ between x + k and x + k + 1.5. In particular. with c5 = 0. for k = 0. and interpret the result. if superposed upon . Exercise 5 above). n − 1. .51) (Proof of this recursion is Exercise 6 above. .) Example 2.5 = 2. from which the ex column is easily computed by: ex = cx + 0.5. Let us begin with the interpretation: the beneficiary receives at the end of the year of death a lump-sum equal in present value to a payment stream of C annually beginning at the end of the year of death and terminating at the end of the nth policy year. Find a simplified expression in terms of actuarial expected present value notations for the net single premium of an insurance on a life aged x. by (4.

Thus the expected present value in this example is given by C an − C ax:n (4. . Find the risk premiums for unit-face-amount 6-year duration annuity-due and term insurance. n.3 of dying within the 4 quarter-years given the year of failure. .3. . . Assume interest rate 5% throughout. (b) with m = 4 and uniform failure density within year of failure.52).2. (a) with m=1. the net single premium in the example is equal to n−1 n−1 v k+1 k px qx+k C ¨ n−k+1 = C a k=0 n−1 k=0 v k+1 k px qx+k n−1 1 − v n−k d C = d = v k=0 k+1 k px qx+k −v n+1 k=0 (k px − k+1 px ) C 1 Ax:n − v n+1 (1 − n px ) d C = Ax:n − v n n px − v n+1 (1 − n px ) d and finally. 2. Example 3. . would result in a certain payment of C at the end of policy years 1. .150 CHAPTER 4. Consider the following cohort life table fragment applicable to lives aged from 30 to 36. and (c) with m = 4 and respective failure probabilities . . By formula (4. . by substituting expression (4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS an n-year life annuity-immediate with annual payments C.15) with m = 1 for Ax:n .2. we have C 1 − d ax:n − (1 − v) v n n px − v n+1 ¨ d C = 1 − d (1 + ax:n − v n n px ) − d v n n px − v n+1 d C 1 − vn = v − d ax:n − v n+1 = C − ax:n d i = C {an − ax:n } So the analytically derived answer agrees with the one intuitively arrived at in formula (4.52).52) Next we re-work this example purely in terms of analytical formulas.

1.0000 0.187)/95000 > kpx = 1-cumsum(c(0.19) and (4. 34) [34. 31) [31. 33) [33.001632 0. > probmass = c(165.05^(-(0:5)) * kpx ) c(Ains=Ains. 36) lx 95000 94835 94685 94530 94472 94300 dx 165 150 155 158 172 187 151 To clarify the different calculations in the three parts (a)-(c).m = Ains*i4/.9916 > Ains = sum( 1. 35) [35.7.m = aux1*AnnDue .001737 0.001811 0. n−1 m−1 b px b=0 j=0 A(m)1 = x:n v b+(j+1)/m ((j+1)/m qx+b − j/m qx+b ) . AnnDue.9951 0. AnnDue=AnnDue) Ains AnnDue 0. 32) [32. (4.008751 5.4.9934 0.05^(-(0:3)/4))/4 aux2 = sum((0:3)*1.24) and calculate by decomposing sums as we did in Section 4.36).05*aux2*Ains) Ains.probmass[1:5])) > probmass [1] 0.05^(-(0:3)/4))/4^2 c(Ains.001579 0.001663 0.05.23) and (4.155. we provide R code as well as numerical answers.25-1) aux1 = sum(1.05^.17). WORKED EXAMPLES x 30 31 32 33 34 35 Age-range [30.05^(-(1:6)) * probmass ) AnnDue = sum( 1.209397 ### answer to (b) For part (c).172. we start from formulas (4.008592 5.9983 0.150.158.4. Parts (a) and (b) respectively make use of formulas (4.35) plus (4.m AnnDue.9967 0.308505 ### answer to (a) > i4 = 4*(1.m 0.001968 > kpx [1] 1.

75+.05^.2 v 1/4 + 0.152 CHAPTER 4.2 v −3/4 + 0. Substituting.3 if j = 2.3 v 1 = Ax:n · 0.ptc = Ains*aux3.2 v 1/4 + + 0.3 v 3/4 + 0.05^.ptc AnnDue.2*1.4 v −1/2 + 0. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS n−1 (m) a ¨ x:n = b=0 1 b px m m−1 v b+j/m (1 − j/m qx+b ) j=0 Now for m = 4. .05^.7 v −1/4 ) 1 1 Ax:n 0.4*1.05^.7 for j = 0. we find n−1 A(4)1 x:n = b=0 b px qx+b v b+1 (1 + i) 0.5+.2 if j = 0. AnnDue.2*(1.5)+. 3.4. 0.ptc = AnnDue .7 v −1/4 4 = ax:n − ¨ The numerics in R for part (c) now follow: > aux3 = .75+1.305604 So the different within-year distribution of failures made roughly a 2% difference in the term insurance and temporary life annuity-due risk premiums. 0.2 v 1/2 + 0. 1.25 c(Ains.3 v (1 + i) and (4) ax:n ¨ 1 = 4 n−1 b px b=0 v b 1 − v qx+b (0.7*1.3*(1. we have in this problem the special assumption that for integers b and 0 ≤ j < 4.05^.3 v 3/4 + 0.008892 5.25 + 1) aux4 = .2 v 1/2 + 0. (j/4qx+b − (j+1)/4qx+b )/qx+b = 0. 0.25*Ains*aux4 Ains. 2.4 v −1/2 + 0.0. 3 It follows that j/4qx+b / qx+b has respective values 0.05^.2 v −3/4 + 0.2.ptc 0. 1 0.

"AnnDue".491.74) kpx2 = 1-pnorm(log(0:24).5. (a) Gamma(14. Find the risk premiums for a 24-year life annuity-due and insurance figured with m = 1 and m = 4 based on the probability densities."P(T-x>24)"))) Ains AnnDue P(T-x>12) P(T-x>24) Gamma 0.mean=3. which can be seen also in Figure 2.4.41 1.246) array(c(sum(-diff(kpx1)/1. while the Lognormal distribution function values are simply expressed in terms of the normal distribution function.5 in Chapter 2.4). kpx2[24]).05^(1:24)).9258 The large relative difference between the term-insurance risk premiums is due to the more rapid decrease of the Gamma versus the Lognormal survival function between 12 and 24 years.9001 Lognormal 0.7. sd =. .4383. kpx1[12]. with parameters as given in Figure 2. . In neither case need we perform numerical integrations. sum(kpx2[1:24]/1.491.4383). kpx1[24]. and (b) Lognormal(3. sum(kpx1[1:24]/1.05^(0:23)).74.04558 14.9998 0. Here the ideas and formulas are simple: the only issue is how to organize the numerical calculations.246)2 ). dim=c(2. kpx2[12].03504 14. WORKED EXAMPLES 153 Example 4. shape=14. The Gamma distribution function can be directly called in R. (.36 0. sum(-diff(kpx2)/1. kpx1 = 1-pgamma(0:24. c("Ains"."Lognormal").0000 0. dimnames=list(c("Gamma"."P(T-x>12)". rate=.05^(0:23)).05^(1:24)).

8 Useful Formulas from Chapter 4 Tm = [T m]/m = x + k m if x + k k+1 ≤T <x+ m m p. 117 P (Tm = x + k | T ≥ x) = m k/m px − (k+1)/m px = k/m px · 1/m qx+k/m p. 122 Term (temporary) life annuity ax:n = ax:n+1/m − 1/m ¨ p. 123 n−1 1 Term Insurance Ax:n = Ex v [T −x]+1 I{T <x+n} = k=0 v k+1 k px qx+k p. 118 1 Endowment Ax:n = n Ex = Ex v n I[T −x≥n] = v n n px p. 122 A(m) − A(m)1 x:n x = v n n px · Ax+n p. 124 . n) d = 1 − Ax:n d p. 121 ax:n = Ex ¨ 1 − v min([T −x]+1. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS 4.154 CHAPTER 4. 122 d ax:n + Ax:n = 1 ¨ p. 120 1 1 1 Ax:n = Ax:n + Ax:n = Ax:n + n Ex p.

127 a ¨ x:n = Ex (m) 1 − v min(Tm−x+1/m.n) ¨ = k=0 v k k px p.4. n) d(m) = 1 − Ax:n d(m) (m) p. 124 nm−1 1 Ax:n = Ex v Tm−x+1/m I{T <x+n} = k=0 v (k+1)/m k/m px 1/m qx+k/m p.8. 127 nm−1 (m) Ax:n = k=0 v (k+1)/m k/m px − (k+1)/m px + v n n px p. 124 n−1 Ax:n = k=0 v k+1 k px − k+1 px + v n n px p. 127 d(m) ax:n + Ax:n = 1 ¨ p. 126 1 Ax:n = A(m)1 + A(m) x:n = A(m)1 + n Ex x:n x:n (m) p. USEFUL FORMULAS FROM CHAPTER 4 155 n−1 ¨ ax:n = Ex amin([T −x]+1. 127 ax:n = ax:n+1/m − 1/m ¨ p. 128 (m) (m) (m) (m) .

131 ∞ ˚x = Ex (T − x) = e 0 s µ(x + s) s px ds p. 135 ¯ δ ax:n + Ax:n = 1 ¯ p. 131 under (i): ax:n = ¨ (m) 1 d(m) 1 − i i(m) 1 Ax:n − v n n px p. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS n−1 under (i): A(m)1 x:n = (i/i (m) ) b=0 1 v b+1 b px qx+b = (i/i(m)) Ax:n p. 134 n n ax:n = Ex 0 v I{y≤T −x} dy y = 0 v y y px dy p. 142 . 134 n 1 Ax:n = Ex v T −x I{T −x≤n} = 0 v s µ(x + s) s px ds p.156 CHAPTER 4. 136 ω−x−1 under (ii): ˚x − ex = e k=0 k px − px+k − qx+k ln px+k p.

where the object of study is either cumulative time or cumulative operational loading in an engineered system until failure or specified degradation of performance. we introduce some of the features of real data structures embodying waiting-time or duration data. or death. • Epidemiology.Appendix A Duration Data Structures In this Chapter. where the durations of interest are the times until accident. health emergency. where larger human populations are followed between recruitment to a study population • Reliability. including: • Life Insurance. or tumor recurrence or return of other disease condition). and 157 . where human lives meeting specific criteria are followed between some initiating event (such as diagnosis of a disease or a specific treatment or intervention) and a response of interest (such as alleviation of symptoms. • Casualty Insurance. where payments are made and received as contractually determined functions of the duration of an insured individual’s lifetime. Such data arise in a wide variety of disciplines and applied fields. such as mortgage insurance relating to the waiting time until a specified emergency resulting in • Clinical Trials and other Biomedical studies. • Other Insurance. or other adverse occurrence resulting in liability or loss.

such as those for individuals from employment to unemployment or vice versa. the population might consist of those in certain professions or risky occcupations. where the waiting times of interest are generally times of transition. usually people. age-intervals. the study population is defined thorugh qualifying characteristics. and locations. All of them also consider probability distributions and expected values for functions depending on waiting-time random variables. In an epidemiologic context. and who consent to be randomly assigned to an experimental versus standard treatment. being observed over chronological time intervals from entry into the study until the occurrence of an event of interest – the study endpoint – or the end of followup – called a right-censoring time – whichever comes first. A. For example. mortality or time-to-event statistics might be compiled for all individuals insured by one or a group of companies. incompletely.1 Concepts and Terminology of Duration (or Mortality. reduce the complex data as actually recorded into the idealized format of the Life Table. In an insurance context. or the subset . Study Population. who are between 30 and 60 years of age and otherwise is good health. consisting of a waiting-time random variable T observed. In a formal observational setting. and for many purposes of statistical anlysis and estimation. for economies between macroeconomic events. or who have specified existing medical conditions (such as high cholesterol) and consent to participate in a study entailing a number of scheduled medical examinations. or Survival) Studies We next define and discuss some concepts and terminology that will allow us to identify common versus distinct aspects of duration data in the different subject areas listed above. for many individuals of a study population. All of these examples involve the analysis of ‘lifetime’ or ‘waiting-time’ or ‘duration’ data. We restrict attention in our discussion to studies and datasets concerning individuals. etc. for businesses from inception to profitability or bankruptcy. GENERAL FEATURES OF DURATION DATA • Economics. one might recruit into a clinical trial males with the same disease diagnosis at a designated set of hospital centers.158 APPENDIX A. over a specified time-window.

and data are to be collected by followup over time on a set of subjects who receive this diagnosis within a short period. ‘cohort’ refers to a set of individuals who have the same whole-number age at the same time and whose waiting time until death or other failure-event is of interest. one could refer to the ‘cohort’ of US males in the state of New Jersey who were 50 years old in 1977. at differing chronological times chosen by the individual. entry of individuals into observation occurs by staggered entry. so that all entry times into the study are simultaneous. In some insurance tabulations.A. the term “cohort study” applies to longitudinal data collected on a set of individuals selected simultaneously at the outset. Mode of entry. On the other hand. In this way. large populations are studied beginning at a specified date. For example. More broadly. and with a slightly different meaning.or low-risk populations in order to justify premiums different from those paid by the general population. The simplest case is where these are the same. as would a reliability study in which 100 machines of a given type are set running – possibly under heighted load or stress – and observed until failure. which is the way we use it in this book. In demography or epidemiologic studies. for example in a survey. ‘cohort’ and ‘longitudinal’ study are roughly synonymous. birth is the event initiating the individual’s clock. and then followed over time. the initiating event for the interval of length T can have different possible relationships to the chronological time at which an individual is brought under observation. but the individuals’ ages at entry vary. a study in which babies born in a given year are followed for the next period of (3 or 10 or 20) years would be a cohort study. Depending on the purpose for which time-to-event data are gathered. In that usage. Another example would be a survival study in which the interesting duration variable T is ‘time from diagnosis to death’. Usually in Insurance and demography and epidemiology. SURVIVAL DATA CONCEPTS 159 of such people subject to a particular risk – such as ‘cigarette smokers’.1. . or where all individuals in the study are entered simultaneously: this kind of survival or duration study is called a cohort study. most survival studies and insurance portfolios consist of individuals who at any single chronological time have widely differing current ages. say three months. As used in an actuarial or demographic context. Whether in clinical trials or Insurance. the time variable of interest is age. data are gathered on special high. Thus.

Survival and other duration studies are often conducted over fixed administrative time windows.160 APPENDIX A. . The study will end and be reported as of a fixed chronological termination time. then each individual must come equipped with at least the following information: Ei = chronological time of entry of individual i into the study Ai = age of individual i at entry into the study Ti = age of individual i at last followup or endpoint under the study Di = binary indicator equal to 1 if i experiences endpoint during followup. we can formulate the following general data structure for a duration or survival study. which is also called that individual’s right-censoring time. Based on the examples and discussion above. the individual’s data are said to be left-censored: the individual could have been observed to experience the study endpoint only at an age greater than the entry age. and the latest is Ti. the individual’s T is known only to be greater than or equal to the last age of followup. Ei + Ti − Ai ]. for a total duration of Ti − Ai . GENERAL FEATURES OF DURATION DATA but at entry into the data-collection. For these reasons. Moreover. 2. individuals can withdraw from observation before the study endpoint. for reasons which may or may not be related to the nearness of that endpoint. . individual i first enters the study at chronological time Ei and is under active observation. N . in many studies as in Insurance portfolios. . and equal to 0 otherwise In terms of these notations. When the entry age is positive. or under followup. in a cohort. . data about the individual’s variable T may be incomplete and are said to be right-censored: within the dataset. the final age Ti is also the age at which the study . staggered. so individuals under study may have a positive age at entry and age of last followup in the study without ever having experienced the study endpoint. or individually. Subjects enter either together. The individual’s earliest age in the study is Ai. Mode of study termination. If the individuals in a study are indexed administratively by i = 1. Thus the chronological interval of followup is [Ei . the individual’s age is recorded. If Di = 1.

Expressed in terms of age during the followup period. The biomedical term would be that individual i is at risk at ages in the interval (Ai . at-risk intervals (solid line segments).A. as might be said also in an epidemiologic or demographic context) on that age interval. and death (filled circle) or right-censoring (hollow circle) for each of 9 patients in an artificial clinical trial. individual i would be said to be on test — by adoption of an older terminology from Reliability — on the age interval [Ai .1: Representation of entry times (solid diamonds). Ti]. while the Insurance term is that the individual is exposed (or ‘exposed to risk’. The terminology ‘under followup’ is the one used in clinical or epidemiologic settings. Artificial Clinical Trial with Staggered Entry Right−Censoring. then individual i does not experience the study end-point while under followup. . while if Di = 0. SURVIVAL DATA CONCEPTS 161 endpoint is observed to occur for individual i.1. and Dropout Patient # 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2 3 4 5 6 Time 7 8 9 10 Figure A. Ti ].

for 9 patients in an artificial clinical trial with stagggered entry. A. and also on what the target sampled population was. is to tabulate over equally spaced intervals of age. there are still other complexities. described in Section A. solid if an observed death and hollow if a dropout or censoring time. are those of Klein and Moeschberger (2003) and Lee (1992).e. in the one-year . ‘Dropout’ takes place at the hollow circle for patient 2.1. This idea is fundamental to statistical analysis of duration data in all of the fields of study listed at the beginning of this Chapter. Each patient’s interval at risk is a horizontal line segment beginning just after the entry-time depicted with a solid diamond and ending at the time indicated with a circle.2 below. including whether the criteria for inclusion depend on time-dependent (for example health-related) variables. Two books describing many forms of biomedical survival data. we have addressed the most frequently occurring complexities of Insurance and other survival data as actually collected. or their underlying study populations are often defined through information collected in sample surveys. while the other censoring events would be called ‘administrative right-censoring’ because the clinical trial observation periods all end at the chronological time 10 indicated by a vertical dashed line. Survival data. or more specifically the cohort life table.162 APPENDIX A. in which some demographic groups are given heavier weight than their proportion in the general population. to experience the study endpoint while under followup). The Life Table. The way in which the data should be analyzed depend on survey inclusion probabilities or weights.. However. is a simplified representation which summarizes only the numbers ‘at risk’ and the numbers observed to fail and be censored. the numbers of study subjects at risk and observed to fail (i.2 Formal Notion of the Life Table Consider the artificial clinical trial data summarized in Figure A.1. or time-on-test. The central idea of the Life Table. In this Section. some of which we can mention briefly. Such data might have been collected for the purpose of understanding the rate of mortality at different ages. with examples. GENERAL FEATURES OF DURATION DATA The definitions for right-censored staggered-entry survival data are illustrated in Figure A.

we will see in Chapter 8 that a reasonable estimator of the death-rate within age-intervals k.A. To complete this brief illustration. In the notation of the previous Section. If a were the common initial age. the total number of subject-years in the survival study during which subjects were under followup at exact ages in [k. the patient labelled i is said to be at risk (i. τk is more informative than simply Yk as a denominator against which to compare the observed number of failures dk in order to estimate the rate of failures within the successive age-intervals. . A.1. it is important to tabulate an additional quantity. k + 1) = ck = # right-censored in [k. we tabulate in Table A. k + 1) are the ratios λk = dk /τk .2. 3). FORMAL NOTION OF THE LIFE TABLE 163 age intervals [1. Indeed. k+1) = i (min(Ti .1 The Cohort Life Table If a cohort of individual subjects were entered into a study simultaneously with the same age-variable and followed up until they died. then the proportions Yk /Ya would estimate . k + 1): τk = Time on test at ages in [k. and a simpler interpretation. then we have Yk = # at risk at age k = i I[Ai <k≤Ti ] Di I[k≤Ti<k+1] i dk = # observed to die in [k. Ai )) Clearly. For this reason. and is actually observed to die at Ti only if Di = 1. and the table itself would contain all of the information (Ei .e. . it is not true that all individuals dying within the age interval [k. Ti. k + 1) = i (1 − Di ) I[k≤Ti <k+1] However. 2). In that case. . [2.1 the quantities mentioned so far for the data represented in Figure A. k + 1) were necessarily at risk at time k. the right-censored counts ck would all be 0. 10). k+1) − max(k.2. could potentially be observed to die) at time t if Ai < t ≤ Ti. If we agree to consider only integer times t = k. then the life table could have a simpler form. [9. Ai . . Di )n i=1 for the n subjects.

which are subjected to the same diets or survival stresses.g. Despite the fact that mortality data for large human populations are generally not collected in cohorts. Regardless of how the data in a mortality study were collected. Animal studies can follow cohorts. But the one area of application in which this kind of data is very common is Engineering Reliability.0 6.0 0. the data are often tabulated as though they were collected that way. divided by the total number of person-years spent by subjects under followup in the study . However. can data actually be collected in this cohort format. and observed until they fail. 9) [9.05 3. qk = number of observed deaths at exact ages in the interval [k. 6) [6.165 1.0 3. 5) [5. 4) [4. follow large numbers of people – many of whom are of the same age or fall into narrow age brackets initially – over time. of newborn laboratory rats.0 the fraction of the population studied which survived to age k.8 6.1: Life table quantities for the staggered-entry survival data used to construct Figure A. 3) [3. k 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Age-int [1.0 6. 10) Yk 0 2 2 4 5 6 5 6 4 dk 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 3 ck 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 τk 1.0 0.0 λk 0. GENERAL FEATURES OF DURATION DATA Table A.0 0.0 0. in parallel. 8) [8. One is a study which follows up a cohort of newborns. 7) [7. e. or a cohort of people selected somehow either at the same age or with the same initiating event (like diagnosis of a disease whose mortality is of interest). once can first estimate the age-specific death rates directly. k + 1).2 2.0 4. and the identity Yk+1 = Yk − dk would always hold.8 6. where a number of devices are set running at identical (usually accelerated) stresses.0 0.167 0. Some longitudinal epidemiologic studies. 2) [2. only in very special applications.147 0. not in Insurance.1. like the famous Framingham study [ref ?] which monitored various risk factors for heart disease.164 APPENDIX A.

rounded) death rates qk . k + 1) given survival to the k’th birthday. This ‘life table’ is an artificial construction. but containing exactly the same information as the column of (smoothed. Denote by [·] the greatest-integer or floor function. the estimated death-rates are often altered slightly to enhance smoothness of the estimated death-rates as a sequence indexed by k. briefly. Next to these columns may also be displayed the death-rates qk .3 Sample Spaces for Duration Data The preceding sections have described first the actual setting in which random durations are observed within a realistic mortality study. Begin by choosing a large conventional size l0 . in presenting the death-rates for purposes of calculation of insurance premiums or population projections. displays the (integer-rounded) numbers of expected survivors at each birthday k and numbers of deaths between successive birthdays. referring directly to no actually observed population. usually 105 . k + 1) for k ranging from 0 up to and including the largest integer age ω − 1. in Demography or Insurance. where ω is the terminal age) seen for any subject of the mortality study. Moreover. Finally. SAMPLE SPACES FOR DURATION DATA 165 This might be done in practice only after approximating or imputing the times on test not directly observable in the study. It is the mortality record of a fictitious population cohort with exactly the same death rates after smoothing and rounding as those estimated from some actual population. apart from rounding errors. Then the cohort life table consists of the columns k−1 lk = l0 j=0 qj = number of lives aged k dk = lk − lk+1 = number of deaths at ages in [k. This number is a power of 10.A. the death rates are presented in the tabular form which we now define as the cohort life table. called the radix of the cohort life table. A. for a population of large hypothetical size experiencing exactly the death rates qk interpreted as conditional probabilities of dying at age [k.3. and then the . for a population cohort of newborns. The cohort life table. Note that. qk = dk /lk for all k.

.166 APPENDIX A. . l0 } enumerates the l0 lives summarized in the cohort life table. . GENERAL FEATURES OF DURATION DATA idealized presentation of the observed mortality in the form of a cohort life table. . Then the single integer-valued age random variable [T ] for a new individual being insured can be explicitly constructed as a function of i ∈ Ω as follows: for k = 0.3. . . and all probabilities and expected values related to functions of a single lifetime or integer-age-at-death random variable [T ]. Here the sample space and underlying probability is very easy to describe: Ω = {1. for all k = 0. . From the viewpoint of Probability Theory. Recalling that dk = lk − lk+1 in the cohort life table. . ω − 1. 2. random variables or data are formalized as measurement functions on the sample space Ω of all possible detailed outcomes of a survival experiment.1 Sample Space for a Single Newly Insured Life The simplest case is the one studied in the first two chapters of this book. ω−1 we note that l0 = k=0 dk . . . 1. 1 ≤ i ≤ l0. with equal assigned probability P r({i}) = 1/l0 for each individual labelled i. . . 1. The underlying random experiment is to select an individual i equiprobably from the list of all all l0 individuals in the cohort ‘population’: that is. ω − 1. It is instructive to define the sample spaces needed at three levels of complexity of the probability and statistics of survival models. Then the event [T ] = k consists precisely of the subset k−1 k of indices i satisfying j=0 dj < i ≤ j=0 dj . and therefore has size dk and probability dk /l0 as desired. k−1 k [T ](i) = k if and only if j=0 dj < i ≤ j=0 dj (A. A. and the next dk individuals die at integer age k.1) The interpretation of this rule is that if we number the l0 individuals i in the cohort life table in order of the whole-number age k at which they die. . in which mortality of a fictitious population cohort is recorded. in this simplified model the lifetime [T ] of the newly to-be-insured individual is modelled as being the same as a randomly selected member of the cohort population. k−1 then the first j=1 dj = l0 − lk individuals die at ages less than k. where only integer ages are recorded in the survival experiment.

.1 In the next subsection. but these topics are not treated further in this book. . . . possibly dependent. cases where each lifetime is additionally labelled by a cause of death L or where events defined in terms of the dependent lifetimes T A . Then the actual observed failure age T is min(T1. lifetime random variables are modelled simultaneously. . . K. . There are cases of intermediate complexity not discussed in detail in this book. or with a smaller payment to the survivor — which revert to the surviving member of the pair when one member dies.1. Nevertheless. David and Moeschberger 1978) in the biostatistical literature. 2. we consider the sample space appropriate to a cohort of lives. for example in insurances of both husbands and wives or in annuities — possibly variable. or Gerber 1997 Ch. such as death from specified disease (as in ‘cancer insurance’) or accident or from other causes. . This topic is treated under the heading of contingent multi-life functions (Jordan 1991 Part II.2 Sample Space for a Full Cohort Population As mentioned explicitly in Section A.A. assumed independent. 8). . . K} for which TL = T .2. TK ) and the random label L is the integer in {1.3. The feature of these intermediate-complexity sample spaces is that a single vector (T1. T B of a pair of related lives (such as a husband-wife pair) have consequences for Insurance. there is an underlying random variable Tk . . TK ) of finitely many. Jordan 1991 Part II). giving the age at which the individual would have died from that cause if not earlier killed from another cause. T B ) or larger multi-life groups of lifetimes is important in the calculation of insurance premiums and annuity or pension values for husband-wife pairs. The case of lifetimes (T. L) labelled by cause arises when for each of K distinct types of mortality. simultaneously following the same mortality rates summarized in a cohort life table. k = 1. This setup is called a competing risks model (see Gail 1975. . . the cohort population whose mortality is summarized in the cohort life table is generally a complete fiction. 2 A. like US Social Security.3. SAMPLE SPACES FOR DURATION DATA 167 Remark A. . and relates to multiple decrement (cohort) life tables in an Insurance context (Gerber 1997 Ch. . . 7. The joint modelling of pairs (T A . 2. the relative frequency ratios defining the survival functions and .

but for a sequence of n independent lifetimes. since we have already argued in this Chapter that realistic mortality studies generally have a much more complicated and inconvenient pattern of staggered positive ages at entry and of loss to followup before death for many subjects under study. now the probabilities are defined by the property that the lifetimes all follow survival function S(t) and are independent . is of particular use in Chapter 3 of this book. In particular. Yet it is immediately apparent that this realism comes at a price of greater mathematical complexity. with the vector-valued mapping given by the identity + mapping on Ω: T (s) = {Ti(s)}n = {si}n i=1 i=1 Unlike the situation in Section A. it is a little more realistic to treat the possible cohort lifetimes as a set of continuous random variables. which are independent across individuals and can each take values anywhere on the positive age axis.1 is inherently discrete. while the sample space described in Section A. The most natural space to use is Ω = Rn = [0.168 APPENDIX A. ∞)n . where the quality of death-rate estimates is studied and where the simulation of new cohort life-tables with specified survival functions S(t) is described. The sample space itself must be a set of detailed outcomes not only for a single continuously distributed lifetime. The sample space described in this Section allows us to consider the intrinsic variability of the estimated death rates qk and other statistics derived as a function of observed age-at-death random variables if those variable values were lifetime lengths of individuals under followup for their entire lives. we can view them as the realized values of a set of independent identically distributed lifetime random variables representating a realistic underlying mechanism of mortality. rather than viewing the cohort data as fixed.2. whose sample sizes we now define. 1 ≤ i ≤ n.1.3. GENERAL FEATURES OF DURATION DATA death rates which are derived from the life table and used in calculated insurance premiums could also be viewed as statistical estimators of unknown statistical parameters based on a set of n independent identically distributed lifetime random variables Ti . The greater realism of cohort-type survival experiments. This aspect of the random mortality experiment is still an artificial idealization. That is. where the random-lifetime mapping was defined in such a way that the probabilities associated with individual outcomes were equiprobable.

the joint probability density of (Ei . David and Moeschberger 1978) for discussion of such matters. SAMPLE SPACES FOR DURATION DATA of one another. bn ] = i=1 (S(ai)−S(bi )) Probabilities of other events concerning the random-variable components Ti(s) are implicitly determined from this definition on n-dimensional recann gles i=1 (ai . Ai . b2]×· · ·×(an . a specification accomplished by the definition Pr Pr s ∈ Rn : n 169 a1 < s1 ≤ b1. Ai .3. an < sn ≤ bn n = s ∈ R : T (s) ∈ (a1. However.3. bi ] by means of the probability axioms (finite or countable additivity). Further details of the unique specification of probability laws from a generating collection of open sets can be found in more advanced treatments of Probability Theory. Ai . 1 ≤ i ≤ n) described in Section A. The usual assumption of independence of (Ei . . 1 ≤ i ≤ n. only in Chapter 8 do we address a simplified although typical setting (‘independent death and censoring’) to introduce maximum likelihood estimators of survival in models with piecewise constant hazards and Kaplan-Meier estimators in models with general (‘nonparametric’) hazards. 1 ≤ i ≤ n. since a very large class of events can be generated by limits of increasing unions and decreasing intersections of unions of such rectangles. Ti . In this book. We refer to texts on Survival Analysis (Cox and Oakes 1994.1 requires a Cartesian 3n product of R+ whose coordinates model the values factors of all of the random variables Ei . Klein and Moeschberger 2003. Di . Di ) across different individuals i is embodied in a definition of Probability on Ω as a so-called ‘product probability’ across n spaces R3 × {0. 1}. b1]×(a2. . such as Ross (2005) or Billingsley (1995). 1}n to model the values Di . can + have all sorts of different realistic dependence structures. . . Ai. Ti. Ti. Di ). Ti.A. along with a further space {0. . a2 < s2 ≤ b2 .3 Sample Space for the Realistic Mortality Study The Sample Space Ω needed to accomodate the detailed outcome data (Ei . A.

GENERAL FEATURES OF DURATION DATA .170 APPENDIX A.

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S. New York 1992 [15] The R Development Core Team. Revised ed. 2nd ed. 1968 [19] Venables. Modern Applied Statistics with S. 3rd ed. 7th ed. Appl. Prob. Irwin/ McGraw Hill. New York. Springer-Verlag. C. 2008 [13] Klein. W. 725-741. E. M. Statistical Models for Survival Data Analysis. (1989) Moderate and large-deviation actuarial probabilities in actuarial risk theory. Survival Analysis: Techniques for Censored and Truncated Data. Chicago. New York. [18] Spiegelman. and Moeschberger. A First Course in Probability. The Theory of Interest. S.172 BIBLIOGRAPHY [12] Kellison. T. of Chicago. R: a Language and Environment. E. and Ripley. John Wiley. Introduction to Demography. 21. J. Springer. 2002 . M. B. 2003 [14] Lee. Adv. [16] Ross. 2nd ed. Univ. Homewood. and Hoesman. Ill. 4th ed. Prentice Hall 2005 [17] Slud.

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