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Chapter 15 more about Probability

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You are on page 1of 9

2 Contents

2 More about Probability

2.1 Addition Law of Probability

A. Mutually Exclusive Events

Definition 2.1:

Two events are mutually exclusive events if they cannot occur at the

same time.

For two mutually exclusive events, the probability that either event happens

is given by the addition law of probability.

If two events E and F are mutually exclusive, then the probability that

Content either event E or event F happens is the sum of the probabilities of

events E and F, that is

P(E or F) = P(E) + P(F).

P. 2

2 More about Probability

2.1 Addition Law of Probability

Example 2.1

A bag contains 2 white balls, 3 red balls and 4 black balls. A ball is selected

at random from the bag, find the probability that it is either white or black.

Solution:

Denote white balls by W1, W2, red balls by R1, R2, R3 and black balls by

B1, B2, B3, B4.

Possible outcomes: {W1, W2, R1, R2, R3, B1, B2, B3, B4}

Event of getting a white or a black ball: {W1, W2, B1, B2, B3, B4 }

Content

6 2

P(either a white or a black ball) = =

9 3

P. 3

2 More about Probability

2.1 Addition Law of Probability

Example 2.1

A bag contains 2 white balls, 3 red balls and 4 black balls. A ball is selected

at random from the bag, find the probability that it is either white or black.

Solution:

Alternative method:

=9

P(either a white or a black ball) = P(white) + P(black)

The event of getting a

Content 2 4 white ball and the event

= +

9 9 of getting a black ball are

2 mutually exclusive.

=

3

P. 4

2 More about Probability

2.1 Addition Law of Probability

B. Complementary Events

Definition 2.2:

For any given event E, the event that E does not occur is called the

complementary event of E. The complementary event of E is denoted by E’.

Remarks:

Content • Event E and event E’ are complementary to each Two mutually exclusive

other and are mutually exclusive. events may or may not be

complementary events.

2. E is the complementary event of E’.

P. 5

2 More about Probability

2.2 Multiplication Law of Probability

A. Independent Events

Definition 2.3:

Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one event does

not affect the occurrence of the other event.

F: event of getting a ‘6’, F = {6}

P. 6

2 More about Probability

2.2 Multiplication Law of Probability

B. Tree Diagram

When we consider two or more events, we may use a tree diagram to list all

the possible outcomes.

Example: If a coin is tossed twice, then we can draw a tree diagram as follows:

Content possible outcomes: H

stands for a head, and T

stands for a tail.

P. 7

2 More about Probability

2.2 Multiplication Law of Probability

Generalizing the above results, we have

If two events E and F are independent, then the probability that both events

E and F happen is the product of the probabilities of events E and F, that is,

P(E and F) = F(E) × P(F).

Content

P. 8

2 More about Probability

2.2 Multiplication Law of Probability

C. Dependent Events

If the probability of the second event depends on the occurrence of the first

event, we call such events dependent events.

Conditional Probability

For any two events E and F, the probability that both E and F will happen is

the product of the probability of event E and the probability of event F after

event E has occurred. That is

P(E and F) = P(E) × P(F after E has occurred),

where P(E) > 0.

Content

P(F after E has occurred) is the conditional probability of F after E has

occurred. It is denoted by P(F | E), if E and F are independent, then

P(F | E) = P(F).

P. 9

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