Anderson Robbins Research (D) / Shaw & Company Research (R) N= 925 registered voters (718 landline, 207 cell phone)

Interviews Conducted: September 25-27, 2011

For Release 6PM ET Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Methodology The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll is based on live telephone interviews with a national sample of 925 registered voters, and was conducted September 25-27, 2011 in the evenings. Landline and cell phone telephone numbers were randomly selected for inclusion in the survey using a probability proportionate to size method, which means that phone numbers for each state are proportional to the number of voters in each state. Results based on the full sample have a margin of error of ± 3% Results among subgroups have larger sampling errors, including: Democrats (n = 382) ± 5% Republicans (n = 338) ± 5.5% Independents (n = 189) ± 7% GOP Primary Voters (n = 363) ± 5% Dem Primary Voters (n = 356) ± 5% Results from Fox News polls before February 2011 were conducted by Opinion Dynamics Corp.

Questions 1 – 4 released separately

5.

Right now, how interested are you in the 2012 presidential election? Are you: Extremely interested 32% 60% 56% 56% 54% 50% 43% 35% 35% 34% 36% 30% 27% Very interested 33 30 29 32 32 35 38 39 38 40 40 37 35 Somewhat interested 27 8 12 11 12 12 15 20 19 20 20 26 29 Not at all interested 7 2 3 1 2 2 4 5 8 5 4 6 8 (Don’t know) 1 1 1 1 1

25-27 Sep 11 PAST TREND 1-2 Nov 08 28-29 Oct 08 20-21 Oct 08 8-9 Oct 08 22-23 Sep 08 8-9 Sep 08 19-20 Aug 08 17-18 Jun 08 18-19 Mar 08 30-31 Jan 08 23-24 Oct 07 15-16 May 07 6.

In the presidential primary election or caucus in your state next year, are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican primary for president, or are you unlikely to participate in either? Democratic Primary 38% Republican Primary 39 Neither 15 (Other/Don’t know) 8

If the presidential election were held today… (RANDOMIZE Q7 and 8) 7. How would you vote if the candidates were: (ROTATE NAMES) Democrat Barack Obama 45% 47% 48% 48% 41% 47%

25-27 Sep 11 17-19 Jul 11 5-7 Jun 11 7-9 Feb 11 28-29 Sep 10 12-13 Jan 10

Republican Mitt Romney 42 41 41 41 40 35

(Other) 3 1 1 2 7 5

(Wouldn’t vote) 4 3 3 3 2 3

(Don’t know) 6 8 7 5 11 10

For reference: Thinking ahead to the next presidential election, if the 2008 general election were held today and the candidates were Democrat [NAME] and Republican [NAME], for whom would you vote? (ROTATE CHOICES) Democrat Republican (Other/don’t Barack Mitt Romney know) Obama 30-31 Jan 08 51% 33 16 8. How would you vote if the candidates were: (ROTATE NAMES) Democrat Republican Barack Rick Perry Obama 25-27 Sep 11 47% 39 17-19 Jul 11 47% 37

(Other) 2 1

(Wouldn’t vote) 4 3

(Don’t know) 7 11

9.

Just your best guess -- as of today, do you think Barack Obama will be re-elected president in 2012, or not? Yes 40% 57% 29% 44% No 50 36 64 46 (Don’t know) 10 8 7 9

25-27 Sep 11 15-17 May 11 14-15 Dec 10 8-9 Dec 09

(REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY) 10. I’m going to read a list of the announced candidates for the 2012 Republican nomination. Please tell me which one you would like to see as the Republican presidential nominee. (RANDOMIZE LIST) 25-27 Sep 11 (N = 363) 23% 19 17 11 6 4 3 3 N/A N/A 2 5 7 29-31 Aug 11 (N = 341) 22% 29 6 3 8 1 8 4 1 N/A 2 6 10 7-9 Aug 11 (N = 319) 26% N/A 9 9 10 2 13 4 1 N/A 1 4 4 8 9 17-19 Jul 11 (N = 323) 26% N/A 9 9 10 2 15 4 1 N/A 3 2 7 13

Mitt Romney Rick Perry Herman Cain Newt Gingrich Ron Paul Jon Huntsman Michele Bachmann Rick Santorum Gary Johnson Buddy Roemer Fred Karger Thaddeus McCotter Tim Pawlenty (Someone else) (Too soon to say) (Don't know)

11.

Which one of the Republican presidential candidates do you have the most in common with? (DO NOT READ LIST UNLESS ASKED TO DO SO.) Rick Perry Herman Cain Mitt Romney Michele Bachmann Newt Gingrich Ron Paul Jon Huntsman Rick Santorum Gary Johnson Fred Karger Buddy Roemer (Someone else) (Too soon to say) (Don’t know) 17% 14 12 10 7 6 2 2 1 6 22

(DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY) 12. Would you like to see Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton as the Democratic presidential nominee in 2012? (N = 356) Obama 66% Clinton 27 (Other) 3 (Don’t know) 3

(RESUME ALL) 13. How impressed are you with the overall field of Republican candidates challenging Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election? Somewhat Not very Not at all Very impressed impressed impressed impressed 25-27 Sep 11 7% 31 28 30 3-5 April 11* 5% 26 27 38 *Wording: “…candidates who have so far expressed interest in challenging…” (Don’t know) 4 5

Questions 14 - 19 and 22 released separately 20. Some Republicans are encouraging New Jersey Governor Chris Christie to run for president because they see him as a strong leader and a straight talker. Do you think Chris Christie should run for president, or not? Yes 32% No 39 (Don’t know) 28 If a candidate receives the endorsement of Donald Trump, would that make you more or less likely to vote for that candidate, or would it not make a difference to your vote? More likely 6% Less likely 31 No difference 62 (Don’t know) 2 Do you think Barack Obama’s political strategy for re-election is to bring people together with a hopeful message or drive people apart with a partisan message? Bring people together 56% Drive people apart 32 (Mixed) 4 (Don’t know) 8

21.

23.

5. Right now, how interested are you in the 2012 presidential election? Are you: Tea Party 53% 34% 10% 3% 87% 13% Nonwhite 34% 29% 32% 6% 62% 38% College Degree 38% 34% 22% 6% *% 72% 28% No College 26% 33% 32% 8% *% 59% 40%

Extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested Not at all interested (Don't know) INTERESTED NOT INTERESTED

Total 32% 33% 27% 7% *% 66% 34%

Dem 30% 34% 31% 6% *% 63% 37%

Rep 39% 35% 22% 4% *% 74% 26%

Ind 26% 31% 28% 14% *% 58% 42%

Men 32% 34% 27% 7% *% 66% 34%

Women 32% 33% 28% 7% *% 65% 35%

White 32% 35% 26% 7% *% 67% 33%

Extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested Not at all interested (Don't know) INTERESTED NOT INTERESTED

Total 32% 33% 27% 7% *% 66% 34%

Under Age 35 24% 23% 41% 12% 48% 52%

35-54 34% 34% 26% 5% 68% 32%

55+ 34% 38% 21% 6% 1% 73% 27%

65+ 29% 41% 21% 7% 1% 70% 29%

Under $50k 25% 30% 33% 11% 1% 55% 44%

$50k + 37% 35% 23% 4% 73% 27%

Lib 30% 32% 32% 6% *% 62% 38%

Mod 31% 33% 30% 5% 1% 64% 35%

Cons 35% 35% 23% 7% *% 70% 30%

6. In the presidential primary election or caucus in your state next year, are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican primary for president, or are you unlikely to participate in either? Tea Party 10% 80% 5% 4% Nonwhite 62% 19% 12% 6% College Degree 37% 40% 16% 7% No College 39% 39% 14% 8%

Democratic Primary Republican Primary Neither (Other/Don't know)

Total 38% 39% 15% 8%

Dem 82% 5% 9% 4%

Rep 2% 86% 7% 4%

Ind 17% 27% 38% 18%

Men 34% 43% 16% 7%

Women 42% 36% 13% 8%

White 30% 46% 15% 8%

Democratic Primary Republican Primary Neither (Other/Don't know)

Total 38% 39% 15% 8%

Under Age 35 47% 25% 20% 8%

35-54 37% 43% 14% 7%

55+ 35% 43% 13% 9%

65+ 40% 41% 11% 7%

Under $50k 48% 30% 11% 11%

$50k + 36% 44% 15% 5%

Lib 69% 10% 16% 5%

Mod 49% 18% 16% 17%

Cons 17% 63% 14% 7%

7. If the presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney? Tea Party 9% 80% 3% 5% 3% Nonwhite 71% 17% 2% 4% 5% College Degree 48% 42% 2% 4% 5% No College 43% 42% 3% 5% 7%

Democrat Barack Obama Republican Mitt Romney (Other) (Wouldn't vote) (Don't know)

Total 45% 42% 3% 4% 6%

Dem 85% 9% 2% 2% 3%

Rep 8% 83% 3% 2% 5%

Ind 34% 36% 5% 14% 12%

Men 45% 42% 4% 4% 6%

Women 46% 41% 2% 5% 6%

White 36% 50% 3% 5% 6%

Democrat Barack Obama Republican Mitt Romney (Other) (Wouldn't vote) (Don't know)

Total 45% 42% 3% 4% 6%

Under Age 35 61% 27% 1% 4% 7%

35-54 44% 45% 3% 4% 4%

55+ 38% 46% 3% 5% 7%

65+ 42% 43% 3% 6% 6%

Under $50k 52% 35% 3% 4% 6%

$50k + 44% 45% 2% 4% 5%

Lib 76% 14% 1% 3% 6%

Mod 70% 17% 3% 5% 5%

Cons 21% 65% 3% 5% 6%

8. If the presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick Perry? Tea Party 11% 84% 1% 1% 2% Nonwhite 73% 17% 2% 4% 4% College Degree 50% 39% 2% 4% 6% No College 45% 40% 2% 5% 8%

Democrat Barack Obama Republican Rick Perry (Other) (Wouldn't vote) (Don't know)

Total 47% 39% 2% 4% 7%

Dem 84% 9% 2% 2% 4%

Rep 10% 78% 1% 3% 8%

Ind 38% 32% 6% 12% 11%

Men 46% 40% 3% 4% 6%

Women 48% 37% 2% 5% 8%

White 38% 47% 3% 4% 8%

Democrat Barack Obama Republican Rick Perry (Other) (Wouldn't vote) (Don't know)

Total 47% 39% 2% 4% 7%

Under Age 35 60% 24% 2% 4% 10%

35-54 46% 42% 2% 4% 6%

55+ 41% 44% 3% 6% 7%

65+ 41% 42% 2% 7% 8%

Under $50k 50% 36% 2% 3% 9%

$50k + 48% 40% 2% 4% 6%

Lib 78% 11% 2% 4% 6%

Mod 71% 12% 2% 3% 11%

Cons 23% 62% 3% 5% 7%

9. Just your best guess -- as of today, do you think Barack Obama will be re-elected president in 2012, or not? Tea Party 24% 70% 6% Nonwhite 53% 33% 14% College Degree 45% 46% 9% No College 34% 55% 11%

Yes No (Not sure)

Total 40% 50% 10%

Dem 61% 27% 12%

Rep 14% 78% 8%

Ind 39% 49% 12%

Men 41% 50% 9%

Women 38% 51% 11%

White 35% 56% 9%

Yes No (Not sure)

Total 40% 50% 10%

Under Age 35 37% 49% 13%

35-54 43% 51% 6%

55+ 37% 50% 13%

65+ 39% 49% 12%

Under $50k 39% 50% 12%

$50k + 41% 50% 9%

Lib 60% 30% 10%

Mod 47% 28% 25%

Cons 25% 68% 8%

13. How impressed are you with the overall field of Republican candidates challenging Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election? Tea Party 17% 55% 18% 8% 1% 73% 26% Nonwhite 5% 24% 29% 39% 3% 29% 68% College Degree 6% 26% 28% 35% 4% 32% 64% No College 8% 37% 27% 24% 4% 45% 51%

Very impressed Somewhat impressed Not very impressed Not at all impressed (Don't know) IMPRESSED NOT IMPRESSED

Total 7% 31% 28% 30% 4% 38% 58%

Dem 3% 18% 26% 51% 2% 20% 78%

Rep 15% 48% 27% 7% 2% 63% 35%

Ind 1% 31% 32% 29% 7% 32% 61%

Men 8% 36% 26% 27% 3% 43% 53%

Women 6% 28% 29% 33% 4% 34% 62%

White 8% 34% 27% 27% 4% 42% 54%

Very impressed Somewhat impressed Not very impressed Not at all impressed (Don't know) IMPRESSED NOT IMPRESSED

Total 7% 31% 28% 30% 4% 38% 58%

Under Age 35 5% 31% 31% 29% 4% 36% 60%

35-54 6% 33% 28% 27% 5% 39% 56%

55+ 9% 30% 25% 34% 3% 38% 59%

65+ 7% 26% 28% 37% 3% 33% 64%

Under $50k 7% 29% 28% 31% 5% 36% 59%

$50k + 7% 32% 28% 31% 2% 39% 59%

Lib 3% 21% 25% 50% 1% 24% 75%

Mod 4% 17% 29% 36% 14% 21% 65%

Cons 10% 42% 29% 16% 3% 52% 45%

20. Some Republicans are encouraging New Jersey Governor Chris Christie to run for president because they see him as a strong leader and a straight talker. Do you think Chris Christie should run for president, or not? Tea Party 43% 39% 19% Nonwhite 26% 51% 23% College Degree 31% 40% 29% No College 34% 39% 27%

Yes No (Don't know)

Total 32% 39% 28%

Dem 26% 48% 26%

Rep 40% 33% 27%

Ind 34% 35% 32%

Men 37% 42% 21%

Women 28% 37% 35%

White 35% 35% 30%

Yes No (Don't know)

Total 32% 39% 28%

Under Age 35 25% 42% 33%

35-54 38% 34% 28%

55+ 31% 44% 26%

65+ 32% 43% 25%

Under $50k 31% 42% 27%

$50k + 32% 40% 27%

Lib 30% 44% 26%

Mod 21% 48% 31%

Cons 36% 35% 29%

21. If a candidate receives the endorsement of Donald Trump, would that make you more or less likely to vote for that candidate, or would it not make a difference to your vote? Tea Party 11% 12% 76% 2% Nonwhite 3% 30% 63% 3% College Degree 6% 31% 63% 1% No College 6% 30% 61% 3%

More likely Less likely No difference (Don't know)

Total 6% 31% 62% 2%

Dem 3% 44% 51% 2%

Rep 10% 18% 71% 1%

Ind 5% 26% 67% 2%

Men 7% 28% 63% 3%

Women 5% 33% 61% 1%

White 7% 31% 61% 1%

More likely Less likely No difference (Don't know)

Total 6% 31% 62% 2%

Under Age 35 4% 31% 63% 2%

35-54 6% 29% 65% 1%

55+ 7% 32% 58% 3%

65+ 6% 35% 55% 4%

Under $50k 7% 32% 59% 3%

$50k + 5% 30% 63% 1%

Lib 3% 45% 51% 1%

Mod 4% 37% 54% 6%

Cons 7% 21% 70% 1%

23. Do you think Barack Obama's political strategy for re-election is to bring people together with a hopeful message or drive people apart with a partisan message? Tea Party 23% 68% 1% 8% Nonwhite 76% 15% 3% 6% College Degree 57% 31% 4% 8% No College 55% 32% 4% 8%

Bring people together Drive people apart (Mixed) (Don't know)

Total 56% 32% 4% 8%

Dem 82% 9% 3% 7%

Rep 30% 57% 5% 9%

Ind 53% 33% 4% 11%

Men 54% 32% 5% 9%

Women 59% 31% 3% 7%

White 49% 37% 4% 9%

Bring people together Drive people apart (Mixed) (Don't know)

Total 56% 32% 4% 8%

Under Age 35 68% 20% 4% 8%

35-54 58% 31% 4% 6%

55+ 48% 39% 3% 11%

65+ 48% 37% 3% 13%

Under $50k 56% 29% 6% 10%

$50k + 58% 32% 3% 7%

Lib 78% 12% 2% 7%

Mod 68% 10% 11% 11%

Cons 40% 49% 3% 8%

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