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- Statistics for Business and Economics: bab 11
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values that can be represented by an interval on the number line

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24

can be any number

between 0 and 24.

called a continuous probability distribution.

Properties of Normal Distributions

distribution.

Normal curve

a random variable, x. The graph of a normal distribution is called

the normal curve.

Properties of Normal Distributions

The normal curve is bell-shaped and symmetric about the

mean.

The total area under the curve is equal to one.

The normal curve approaches, but never touches the x-axis as

it extends farther and farther away from the mean.

Between µ − σ and µ + σ (in the center of the curve), the graph

curves downward. The graph curves upward to the left of µ − σ

and to the right of µ + σ. The points at which the curve

changes from curving upward to curving downward are called

the inflection points.

Properties of Normal Distributions

Inflection points

Total area = 1

x

µ − 3σ µ − 2σ µ−σ µ µ+σ µ + 2σ µ + 3σ

with mean µ and standard deviation σ, you can graph a normal

curve with the equation

1 -(x - µ )2 2σ 2

y = e . e = 2.178 π = 3.14

σ 2π

Means and Standard Deviations

A normal distribution can have any mean and any positive standard

deviation.

Inflection

The mean gives the points

Inflection location of the line

points of symmetry.

x x

1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Standard deviation: Standard deviation:

σ ≈ 1.3 σ ≈ 1.9

Means and Standard Deviations

Example:

1. Which curve has the greater mean?

2. Which curve has the greater standard deviation?

B

A

x

1 3 5 7 9 11 13

B occurs at x = 9. Curve B has the greater mean.

Curve B is more spread out than curve A, so curve B has the greater standard

deviation.

Interpreting Graphs

Example: The heights of fully grown magnolia bushes are normally

distributed. The curve represents the distribution. What is the mean height of a

fully grown magnolia bush? Estimate the standard deviation.

deviation away from the mean.

µ=8 σ ≈ 0.7

x

6 7 8 9 10

Height (in feet)

The heights of the magnolia bushes are normally distributed with

a mean height of about 8 feet and a standard deviation of about

0.7 feet.

The Standard Normal Distribution

The standard normal distribution is a normal distribution with a mean of 0

and a standard deviation of 1.

corresponds to z-scores.

z

−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3

Any value can be transformed into a z-score by using the formula

Va lu e - Mea n x -µ

z = = .

St a n da r d devia t ion σ

The Standard Normal Distribution

If each data value of a normally distributed random variable x is

transformed into a z-score, the result will be the standard normal distribution.

nonstandard normal curve (the x-values) is the

same as the area under the standard normal

curve (within the corresponding z-

boundaries).

z

−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3

After the formula is used to transform an x-value into a z-score, the Standard

Normal Table in Appendix B is used to find the cumulative area under the

curve.

The Standard Normal Table

Properties of the Standard Normal Distribution

1. The cumulative area is close to 0 for z-scores close to z = −3.49.

2. The cumulative area increases as the z-scores increase.

3. The cumulative area for z = 0 is 0.5000.

4. The cumulative area is close to 1 for z-scores close to z = 3.49

z

0 1 2 3

z = −3.49

−3 −2 −1

z = 3.49

z=0

Area is 0.5000.

The Standard Normal Table

Example: Find the cumulative area that corresponds to a z-score of 2.71.

Appendix B: Standard Normal Table

z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09

0.0 .5000 .5040 .5080 .5120 .5160 .5199 .5239 .5279 .5319 .5359

0.1 .5398 .5438 .5478 .5517 .5557 .5596 .5636 .5675 .5714 .5753

0.2 .5793 .5832 .5871 .5910 .5948 .5987 .6026 .6064 .6103 .6141

2.6 .9953 .9955 .9956 .9957 .9959 .9960 .9961 .9962 .9963 .9964

2.7 .9965 .9966 .9967 .9968 .9969 .9970 .9971 .9972 .9973 .9974

2.8 .9974 .9975 .9976 .9977 .9977 .9978 .9979 .9979 .9980 .9981

Find the area by finding 2.7 in the left hand column, and then moving across

the row to the column under 0.01.

The area to the left of z = 2.71 is 0.9966.

The Standard Normal Table

Example: Find the cumulative area that corresponds to a z-score of −0.25.

z .09 .08 .07 .06 .05 .04 .03 .02 .01 .00

−3.4 .0002 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003

−3.3 .0003 .0004 .0004 .0004 .0004 .0004 .0004 .0005 .0005 .0005

−0.3 .3483 .3520 .3557 .3594 .3632 .3669 .3707 .3745 .3783 .3821

−0.2 .3859 .3897 .3936 .3974 .4013 .4052 .4090 .4129 .4168 .4207

−0.1 .4247 .4286 .4325 .4364 .4404 .4443 .4483 .4522 .4562 .4602

−0.0 .4641 .4681 .4724 .4761 .4801 .4840 .4880 .4920 .4960 .5000

Find the area by finding −0.2 in the left hand column, and then moving across the

row to the column under 0.05.

The area to the left of z = −0.25 is 0.4013

Guidelines for Finding Areas

Finding Areas Under the Standard Normal Curve

1. Sketch the standard normal curve and shade the appropriate

area under the curve.

2. Find the area by following the directions for each case shown.

a. To find the area to the left of z, find the area that

corresponds to z in the Standard Normal Table.

of z = 1.23 is

0.8907.

area for the z-score.

Guidelines for Finding Areas

Finding

Areas Under the Standard Normal Curve

b. To find the area to the right of z, use the Standard Normal

Table to find the area that corresponds to z. Then subtract

the area from 1.

left of z = 1.23 is right of z = 1.23: 1−

0.8907. 0.8907 = 0.1093.

z

0 1.23

1. Use the table to find the

area for the z-score.

Guidelines for Finding Areas

Finding Areas Under the Standard Normal Curve

c. To find the area between two z-scores, find the area

corresponding to each z-score in the Standard Normal

Table. Then subtract the smaller area from the larger area.

left of z = 1.23 is region between the two z-scores:

0.8907. 0.8907 − 0.2266 = 0.6641.

z = −0.75 is 0.2266.

z

−0.75 0 1.23

score.

Guidelines for Finding Areas

Example: Find the area under the standard normal curve to the left of z

= −2.33.

Always draw

the curve!

−2.33 0

Guidelines for Finding Areas

Example: Find the area under the standard normal curve to the right of z =

0.94.

curve!

0.8264

1 − 0.8264 = 0.1736

z

0 0.94

Guidelines for Finding Areas

Example: Find the area under the standard normal curve between z =

−1.98 and z = 1.07.

Always draw

0.8577 the curve!

z

−1.98 0 1.07

Probability and Normal Distributions

If a random variable, x, is normally distributed, you can find the probability

that x will fall in a given interval by calculating the area under the normal

curve for that interval.

µ = 10

P(x < 15) σ=5

x

µ =10 15

Probability and Normal Distributions

Normal Distribution Standard Normal Distribution

µ = 10 µ=0

σ=5 σ=1

x z

µ =10 15 µ =0 1

Same area

P(x < 15) = P(z < 1) = Shaded area under the curve

= 0.8413

Probability and Normal Distributions

Example: The average on a statistics test was 78 with a standard deviation of 8.

If the test scores are normally distributed, find the probability that a student

receives a test score less than 90.

µ = 78 x - µ 90 - 78

σ=8 z = =

σ 8

P(x < 90)

= 1.5

x receives a test score less than

µ =78 90 90 is 0.9332.

z

µ =0 ?

1.5

Example: The average on a statistics test was 78 with a standard deviation of 8.

If the test scores are normally distributed, find the probability that a student

receives a test score greater than than 85.

µ = 78 x - µ 85 - 78

z = =

σ 8

σ=8

= 0.875 ≈ 0.88

P(x > 85)

µ =78 85 receives a test score greater

z

µ =0 0.88

? than 85 is 0.1894.

P(x > 85) = P(z > 0.88) = 1 − P(z < 0.88) = 1 − 0.8106 = 0.1894

Example: The average on a statistics test was 78 with a standard deviation of 8.

If the test scores are normally distributed, find the probability that a student

receives a test score between 60 and 80.

x - µ 60 - 78 = -2.25

z1 = =

σ 8

x - µ 80 - 78 = 0.25

z2 = =

P(60 < x < 80) σ 8

µ = 78

σ=8

The probability that a student

x

receives a test score between

60 µ =78 80 60 and 80 is 0.5865.

z

?

−2.25 µ =0 0.25

?

P(60 < x < 80) = P(−2.25 < z < 0.25) = P(z < 0.25) − P(z < −2.25)

Finding z-Scores

Example: Find the z-score that corresponds to a cumulative area of 0.9973.

Appendix B: Standard Normal Table

z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08

.08 .09

0.0 .5000 .5040 .5080 .5120 .5160 .5199 .5239 .5279 .5319 .5359

0.1 .5398 .5438 .5478 .5517 .5557 .5596 .5636 .5675 .5714 .5753

0.2 .5793 .5832 .5871 .5910 .5948 .5987 .6026 .6064 .6103 .6141

2.6 .9953 .9955 .9956 .9957 .9959 .9960 .9961 .9962 .9963 .9964

2.7

2.7 .9965 .9966 .9967 .9968 .9969 .9970 .9971 .9972 .9973 .9974

2.8 .9974 .9975 .9976 .9977 .9977 .9978 .9979 .9979 .9980 .9981

Find the z-score by locating 0.9973 in the body of the Standard Normal Table. The

values at the beginning of the corresponding row and at the top of the column give the z-

score.

The z-score is 2.78.

.01 .00

−3.4 .0002 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003

−0.2 .0003 .0004 .0004 .0004 .0004 .0004 .0004 .0005 .0005 .0005

Use the

closest

−0.3 .3483 .3520 .3557 .3594 .3632 .3669 .3707 .3745 .3783 .3821 area.

−−0.2

0.2 .3859 .3897 .3936 .3974 .4013 .4052 .4090 .4129 .4168 .4207

−0.1 .4247 .4286 .4325 .4364 .4404 .4443 .4483 .4522 .4562 .4602

−0.0 .4641 .4681 .4724 .4761 .4801 .4840 .4880 .4920 .4960 .5000

Find the z-score by locating 0.4170 in the body of the Standard Normal Table. Use the

value closest to 0.4170.

Transforming a z-Score to an x-Score

To transform a standard z-score to a data value, x, in a given

population, use the formula

x = µ + zσ.

Example:

The monthly electric bills in a city are normally distributed with a mean

of $120 and a standard deviation of $16. Find the x-value

corresponding to a z-score of 1.60.

x = µ + zσ

= 120 + 1.60(16)

= 145.6

We can conclude that an electric bill of $145.60 is 1.6 standard

deviations above the mean.

Finding a Specific Data Value

Example: The weights of bags of chips for a vending machine are normally distributed

with a mean of 1.25 ounces and a standard deviation of 0.1 ounce. Bags that have

weights in the lower 8% are too light and will not work in the machine. What is the

least a bag of chips can weigh and still work in the machine?

8% P(z < −1.41) = 0.08

z

?

−1.41 0

x = µ + zσ

x = 1.25 + (−1.41)0.1

? 1.25

1.11 = 1.11

The least a bag can weigh and still work in the machine is 1.11 ounces.

Find the following probabilities

P(Z < -1.5) = P(Z > 1.5) = 0.5 - P(0 ≤ Z ≤ 1.5) = 0.5 – 0.4332= 0.0668

P(Z ≤ -1.5)=0.5+0.1915-0.0668 =0.6247

Homework

4.55

4.59

4.63

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