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MONTHLY PRICE AND FOOD SECURITY UPDATE

Month: March 2011 Country/Region: Philippines
The accuracy of the information contained cannot be guaranteed as the information may come from official as well as from qualitative/anecdotal sources. The weekly update does not replace reporting of more reliable information (e.g. monthly or quarterly bulletins) from COs/RBs.

HEADS - UP NOTES
Rising domestic oil prices and local food prices is aggravating the situation of poor and vulnerable households both in rural and urban areas. Weekly average increase of 2.84% in diesel and 1.75% in gasoline was implemented by oil companies since January 2011. An upward trend in the price of essential food commodities, particularly rice, fish, vegetable and edible oil, was observed since December 2010. However, the prevailing price of refined sugar is lower than the reported cost in January 2011.

MAIN PRICE TRENDS
General inflation Price indices run up for all local commodities and food, beverage and tobacco was observed since January 2010. The upward trajectory of local prices began in October 2010 (Figure 1). Further analysis of the annual price gain for food at the national level showed an increase of 4.3% in February from 3.1% in January. An average of 0.86 percent increase per month between October 2010 and February 2011 has been observed.
F ig u re 1 . C o n s u m e r P ric e In d e x fo r All In c o m e H o u s e h o ld s in th e P h ilip p in e s , J an u a ry 2 0 1 0 -F e b ru a ry 2 0 1 1
173 All c om m odities 172 171 170 169 168 167 166 165 164 163 May-10 Mar-10 Nov-10 Apr-10 Jan-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Jul-10 Feb-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Feb-11
Price/kg 32.00 31.50 31.00 30.50 30.00 29.50 29.00

Figure 2. Av e rage monthly price s of whole sale and re tail we ll-mille d rice , Philippine s, January 2010-Fe bruary 2011
35.25 34.50 33.75 Price/kg 33.00 32.25 31.50 30.75 30.00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Retail Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

Wholes ale

Food, beverage and tobac c o

For regular milled rice, the average retail price is Php 31.17/kg with a 0.71% increase from the previous month (Figure 3). In Metro Manila, retail prices of commercial rice varieties remained stable since December 2010 (Figure 4). No further increase in the price of NFA well-milled (Php27.00) and premium (Php32.00) rice was observed since the approved increase of Php2.00 in December 2010.
Figure 3. Average monthly prices of regular milled rice, Philippines, March 2009-February 2011

Fuel/Oil prices Oil price hike in the world market has brought a consequent increase in domestic oil prices. Beginning February 8, 2011 an upward trend was observed in diesel and gasoline prices, with a Php0.75 increase per liter. Weekly calls for increase were implemented by oil companies since February 22, 2011. Prevailing retail prices of diesel and gasoline as of 15 March 2011 are at Php46.10 and Php54.50, respectively. Main staple food commodity prices Farmgate price of paddy dropped by 4.52% in October 2010. However, an upward trend was observed since December 2010. The upward movement of prices was sustained until February 2011, at Php15.55per kg. Average wholesale and retail price of well-milled rice increased in January (Figure 2). Wholesale well-milled rice is Php31.86, 1.01% and 0.41% higher than the respective level from last month and previous year of the same month. From December 2010 to January 2011 the highest increase in the retail price of well-milled rice was observed in Regions I, III and XI at 2.07%, 2.35% and 2.45%, respectively.

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar 2009-Feb 2010

Mar 2010-Feb 2011

Figure 4. Retail prices of rice in M etro M anila per week, by type (Decem ber 2, 2010 - M arch 10, 2011)
46.00 44.00 42.00 40.00 38.00 Price/kg 36.00 34.00 32.00 30.00 28.00 26.00 24.00 6 Jan 13 Jan 20 Jan 27 Jan 3 Mar 10 Feb 17 Feb 16 Dec 23 Dec 30 Dec 24 Feb 10 Mar Fancy 2 Dec 9 Dec 3 Feb

NFA-Well-milled

NFA-Premium

Regular milled

Well-milled

Premium

Prevailing retail price of cooking oil increased in 12 of the 17 trading centers. Price increases ranged from Php1.00/750ml bottle in Region 8 (Tacloban City) to Php25.00 per 750ml bottle in CAR (Baguio City).

19 44.55 Coping Strategy and possible consequences With the adverse change in climatic condition and clear upward price trends of major commodities serious consequences and additional challenges are posed to the estimated 3. VII. was 7.69 0.64 220. 4.gov.64 131. Variations in food consumption patterns and possible consequences An alternative consumption pattern of households to counter the rising food cost is to select cheaper food items of lower nutritional value. X. The estimated cost of damages to agriculture amounted to Php667M (NDRRMC. National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council.31 22.census.49 155.nwpc. agriculture plantation and agriculture non-plantation workers within and between regions (Table 2). The terms of trade (ToT) for farm workers. flooding. National Statistics Office.42 41. Terms of trade real wage of farm workers to rice (1999-2009) 8.89 130.02 IV-B 157.98 119.dole.15 129. Internet: http://www.88 X 151. The minimum fare is up by Php1.57 19. January 2011 Agriculture NonNonAgriculture Region Agriculture Plantation plantation NCR 242.00/kg. 7.83 -11.01 35.83 185. The 7th National Nutrition Surveys. particularly the provinces of Sorsogon and Masbate. this implies that a farm worker would have to work twice as much to obtain the same amount of rice.21 -0.23 118. competing against the average allocation for food and other basic needs. egg and vegetables Commodity Fish Egg Cabbage Carrots Eggplant Onion Squash Stringbeans Tomato Current price (Php per kg/pc) 103. Updates on Palay.19 6. 2008). In 2009. While only 13.55 113.09 135.19 131.58 IV-A 200. The Department of Agriculture is expecting lesser imports of rice in 2011. defined as the ratio of the daily wage to the price of rice.00 6.81 145. Department of Science and Technololgy.62 137. The consequences of changes in food patterns are more evident among preschool-aged children. Rice and Corn Prices (February 2009 to January 2011).96 1yr 10.33 115.00 4.05 147.94 174.69 -0. Current Real Wage.85 0. This is a result of reduced supply due to crop damage and the increase in transportation cost (Table 1). respectively.91 6mo 19.62 million MT. Table 1.XI. VIII. the proportion of households meeting energy and nutrient adequacy decreased.59 I 147.5 percent meet the recommended intakes for iron and Vitamin A.67 VI 156. Internet: http://www.90 CARAGA 135.55 113. Food and Nutrition Research Institute (FNRI). by Region.64 million MT which is 15. for a family of five commuting daily. Situation Report No. IX.55 79.87.37 kg of rice per day of work in 2000.bas. Crops and livestock production was adversely affected by ashfall. Rice Production and Import Despite the adverse effect of rains in the eastern part of the courntry. 2011).gov. As shown in the recent National Nutrition Surveys (FNRI.24 -2.00 for transportation. Internet: http://www.90 -0.ph 6.21 Change in price (%) 1mo 5.56 29.62 II 138. Fish.31 VIII 138. 2011).42 220. Internet: http://business.91 4.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Table 2. 2. egg and vegetable prices significantly increased from last month’s rates.35 119. total paddy production is expected to reach 7.27 9.71 131.inquirer.ph/pages/statistics/stat_current_regional.gov.html (Accessed: 28 February 2011).31 152. landslides.ph (Accessed 7 March 2011).93 4.5 percent and 21.59 118.000 MT. This was brought about by Northeast moonsoon over Northern and Central Luzon and the tail-end of a coldfront over Southern Luzon.59 14.00 kg of rice/daily wage 7.nscb. V. storm surges and disease outbreaks have affected Regions IVA.Downward trend in the retail price of refined sugar was observed in 8 trading centers. Summary Inflation Report-Consumer Price Index (February 2011).56 131.37 127.3 million MT.03 145.4% above the 2010 level of 6. Fare hike was pushed by major transport groups.00 3. Visayas and Mindanao. XII.00. 3. VI.00 5. 2009 Official Poverty Statistics.00 0.gov. .46 ARMM 113.56 III 189. CARAGA and ARMM. Change in retail price of fish.00 2. Bureau of Agricultural Statistics.03 XI 161.00 to 69. Less than 1/3 of the households have caloric intake of 100% or more.58 1.94 kg of rice which is about half of the ratio in 2000. Summary of current regional daily minimum wage rates. National Wages and Productivity Commission. agriculture and nonagriculture.83 134.gov.15 161. flashfloods.net/ (Accessed 16 March 2011). The private sector will be allowed by the government to import 163.8 VII 162. National Statistics Coordination Board (NSCB). 60.49 XII 149.72 10. 5. References 1. Internet: http://www.13 155.42 1. Department of Agriculture. 2008. This would mean an additional estimated expense of Php80.54 7.42 15. cuts rice importation. the ToT declined to 3. Internet: http://www.42 CAR 158.75 45. Reported estimates of damages to crops amount to Php16M. Rice import target is lowered between 1 million to 1.ph (Accessed: 4 March 2011).08 4.02 V 144. Figure 5.41 IX 148. Department of Labor and Employment. The situation in Region V. The prevailing retail price of refined sugar ranged from Php62.ndcc. Philippine Daily Inquirer. The estimated difference between the highest and lowest reported minimun wage rate of agriculture non-plantation workers is Php106.00 1.82 38. March 2011. PRELIMINARY INSIGHTS ON EFFECTS AT THE HOUSEHOLD/COMMUNITY LEVEL Purchasing power There is large variation in the minimum real wage of non-agriculture.ph/?ids=amsad_price1 (Accessed: 4 February 2011).56 137. sea mishaps. The current increase in domestic oil prices will result to higher prices of essential commodities and further add to losses in purchasing power.63 22. PH sees good harvest.28 6.06 60.49 121.86 million poor vulnerable families (NSCB.58 152.00 133.25 44.11 171.59 147.17 OTHER ISSUES IMPACTING ON FOOD SECURITY SITUATION Climatic conditions Since January 2011. is worsened by Bulusan Volcano’s siesmic activity.47 41. IVB.