By: Cherry Fang, Kelly Wong, Jolene Yuan and Maggie Yan Teacher: Dr.

Chan

Topic Introduction The literacy rate is the percentage of people in a nation who can read and write. This rate plays a major role in determining a countrys development as both social and economic developments are considered when ranking a nation as first world, second world, etc. The higher a countrys literacy rate, the more developed it is. The purpose of this report is to find out why some countries have lower literacy rates while some higher. This is done by looking at the demographics of nations in relation to their literacy rate. More specifically, the report focuses on two likely hypotheses regarding demographics that might affect literacy rates. 1. Does a nations population density affect its literacy rate? 2. Does a nations birth rate affect its literacy rate? To find out if there is a relationship between population density vs. literacy, and birth rate vs. literacy, nations will be selected through unbiased methods and their statistics compare on a scatter plot. The best regression curve for both hypotheses will be selected and their values evaluated to reach a conclusion. From this report, we hope to uncover how the literacy rate, a key factor of a nations development is affected and therefore become more informed of the cause and effects of global issues.

Question 1 Introduction to Question 1 Is a nations literacy rate affected by its population density? Population density and literacy rate is a likely relationship because if there are more people, there is more strain for the government to provide for their education. In most of the developing nations, where population density is high, this strain seems to be especially desperate because the government cannot even provide their people with the basic needs, such as healthcare, food, and shelter. To these developing nations, literacy is not seen as a priority. On the other hand, if there are less people, it would be easier for the government to provide enough education for everyone. It would also be easier for the government to provide enough food and shelter so that they can devote more effort into providing education.

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Table 1 Population Density vs. Literacy Rate The nations below are selected by systematic sampling from a list of 182 countries. The nations were placed in order from the highest literacy rate to the lowest and every fifth nation was counted into the below table.
Country Georgia Slovenia Kazakhstan Hungary Antigua and Barbuda Czech Republic Germany South Korea Slovakia Italy Spain Argentina Macedonia Grenada Brunei Darussalam Kuwait Philippines Jordan Vietnam Lebanon Dominica Equatorial Guinea Cape Verde Lesotho Vanuatu Algeria Uganda Madagascar Angola Guinea-Bissau Yemen India Cte d'Ivoire Benin Burkina Faso Population Density(y) 117.4526973 101.1197159 6.013273201 107.7666882 197.1681818 135.3555017 229.1181751 503.0585963 110.7323952 201.1198488 91.32414539 14.489683 82.23661183 319.7674419 69.71205551 200.1367565 306.8513898 69.41587216 272.9874464 404.1331803 96.88 24.09982175 140.5901314 68.09421842 19.95931091 14.87273385 137.1359007 35.18247618 14.83757119 45.5916955 42.48648649 368.1462122 63.93682317 78.06496066 57.42608315 168.1699587 Literacy Rate(x) 100 99.7 99.6 99.4 99 99 99 99 99 98.9 97.9 97.6 97 96 94.9 94.5 93.4 91.1 90.3 89.6 88 87 83.8 82.2 78.1 75.1 73.6 70.7 67.4 64.6 58.9 54.2 48.7 40.5 28.7 84.13333333 Population 8,186,453 2,050,000 16,400,000 10,022,302 86,754 10,674,947 81,800,000 50,000,000 5,429,763 60,605,053 46,030,109 40,091,359 2,114,550 110,000 401,890 3,566,437 91,983,000 6,407,085 90,549,390 4,224,000 72,660 676,000 567,000 2,067,000 243,304 35,423,000 32,369,558 20,653,556 18,498,000 1,647,000 23,580,000 1,210,193,422 20,617,068 8,791,832 15,746,232 Area of Territory(sq.km) 69,700 20,273 2,727,300 93,000 440 78,866 357,021 99,392 49,035 301,338 504,030 2,766,890 25,713 344 5,765 17,820 299,764 92,300 331,698 10,452 750 28,050 4,033 30,355 12,190 2,381,741 236,040 587,041 1,246,700 36,125 555,000 3,287,263 322,460 112,622 274,200

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Literacy Rate vs. Population Density

600 Population Density (sq.km) 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 20 40 60 Literacy Rate (%) 80 100 120

Finding the Best Model Equations and Graphs of the Five Lines of Best Fit

Linear Regression

Literacy Rate vs. Population Density

600 Population Density (sq.km) 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 20 40 60 Literacy Rate (%) 80 100 120 y = 1.5587x + 4.8658 R = 0.0578

First, we try this linear regression graph, which shows a relatively weak correlation of 0.057.

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Exponential Regression

Literacy Rate vs. Population Density

600 Population Density (sq.km) 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 20 40 60 Literacy Rate (%) 80 100 120 y = 30.438e0.0124x R = 0.049

Next, we try this exponential graph. It has an even weaker correlation of 0.049.

Power Regression

Literacy Rate vs. Population Density

600 Population Density (sq.km) 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 20 40 60 Literacy Rate (%) 80 100 120 y = 4.0487x0.6962 R = 0.0359

Then, we compared our data using a power model. This also has an extremely weak correlation of 0.035.

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Quadratic Regression

Literacy Rate vs. Population Density

600 Population Density (sq.km) 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 20 40 60 Literacy Rate (%) 80 100 120 y = 0.0353x2 - 3.499x + 168.24 R = 0.0695

This quadratic regression shows a slightly higher correlation of 0.069. Even though its still relatively low, its a lot higher than the correlation we get from the previous graphs.

Cubic Regression

Literacy Rate vs. Population Density

600 Population Density (sq.km) 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 20 40 60 Literacy Rate 80 100 120 y = 0.0009x3 - 0.1476x2 + 8.0223x - 50.888 R = 0.0722

This cubic model has the highest R2 value of 0.072.

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Analysis of which is the best model From the above five graphs, cubic regression had the highest coefficient of determination of 0.0722. However, this number is still very far from one, the strongest relation, therefore a weak relationship exists between literacy rate and population density.

Data Analysis- Detailed Analysis of Question 1 The scatter plot shows a positive weak relationship with some cluster at the bottom right corner. Based on the correlations, it is clear that there is no relationship between population density and literacy rate of a country. There are several possible reasons that might have caused the poor relation; they are the ecological area, age structure of population, and new advanced technology. In our data, we used the total area of a country and did not exclude the unusable area. For example, Greenland has a large territory, but only a fraction of its territory is suitable for habitation. Age structure of a population will also affect the literacy rate. For example, two countries have the some population and educational system but one has more youth than the other; the one with more youth will have a higher literacy rate because more youth is been educated. The last point is that improved technology contributes to the poor relation. If a nation has advanced medical technology, they are able to extend human life which will add to the population density. Moreover, this nation is also likely to have higher literacy rates as they were able to develop such advanced technology. Together, high literacy rates and high population density defies the relationship between population density and literacy rates. This point most likely explains the outlier in the middle of the graph as explained below.

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Outlier Cubic Regression without outlier

Literacy Rate vs. Population Density

600 Population Density (sq.km) 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 20 40 60 Litercy Rate (%) 80 100 120 y = -0.0017x3 + 0.3984x2 - 26.67x + 571.8 R = 0.166

The cubic regression (the best fit with and without the outlier) was applied again after the outlier in the original graph was taken out. The coefficient of determination has a higher value, meaning that the relationship was stronger without the outlier. However, the relationship is still weak. It is interesting to note that the outlier was India, the most populated nation in the world. Although its population density is high, its literacy rate is unusually high as well. This fits the point described earlier about the advanced technology since India does have both advanced medical equipment and surprisingly quality education. On a CBC 60mins episode, India was said to be one of the centres for medical tourism due to their advanced medical technology, and many Indian doctors go back to India after being trained in the western nations. This makes Indias population density higher as they can sustain longer life through technology and skills. With education, Indias learning system stems from the British system. It is mostly run by the government as a public sector, and child education is compulsory which makes up for the high literacy rate.

Conclusion to Question 1 In conclusion, literacy rate is not affected by the population density which proves the hypothesis as incorrect. The coefficient of determinations from the regressions showed very weak relationships and too many hidden variables are likely to have influenced the result. In terms of biasness, United Nations Development Programme is a trusted government site. However, systematic sampling entails that some data must be excluded, and using sampling techniques cannot be as accurate as using the data from all the nations.

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Question 2 Introduction to Question 2 Is a nations literacy rate affected by its birth rate? Birth rate and literacy rate seems to go hand in hand, since with more children, a family will have less resource for each, and therefore, the children cant afford to go to school and get an education. This question may seem very similar to the previous one, but there is a difference between population density and birth rate. One example is China. China used to be one of the normal developing countries with high birth rates. However, after the government reinforced a One-Child Policy in an attempt to control the countrys population, birth rates went down dramatically, even though its population density remains one of the highest in todays society. Investigating this will allow us to compare if birth rate affects, and to what extent, a nations literacy rate.

Hypothesis The low literacy rates are due to higher birth rates. It is a common fact that uneducated women give more births verses educated women. It could also be said that the children of the uneducated mother would mostly likely be poorly educated themselves. Also, from the following two graphs, it is noticed that areas with low birth rates tend to have higher literacy rates, while areas with low literacy rates tend to have higher birth rates.

Graph 1 World Birth Rate

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Graph 2 World Literacy Rate

Table 2 Birth Rate vs Literacy Rate The following 10 nations are selected by systematic sampling from a list of 178 countries. They consist of 5 developed nations and 5 developing nations. Countries Japan Singapore Canada United Kingdom United Sates China India Pakistan Mali Niger Birth Rate 7.64 8.82 10.28 10.65 13.82 14 21.76 27.62 49.15 51.6 Literacy Rate 99 94.4 99 99 99 95.9 74.04 58.2 26.2 28.7

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Original Graph

Literacy Rate vs Birth Rate

105 95 85 Literacy Rate 75 65 55 45 35 25 5 10 15 20 25 30 Birth Rate 35 40 45 50 55

Finding the Best Model Equations and Graphs of the Five Lines of Best Fit

Linear Regression

Literacy Rate vs Birth Rate

105 95 85 Literacy Rate 75 65 55 45 35 25 5 15 25 Birth Rate 35 45 55 R = 0.9691

First, we try the linear regression graph, which shows a strong correlation of 0.969.

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Exponential Regression

Literacy Rate vs Birth Rate

105 95 85 Literacy Rate 75 65 55 45 35 25 5 15 25 Birth Rate 35 45 55 R = 0.9776

Next, we try the exponential regression. It also shows a strong correlation of 0.977.

Power Regression

Literacy Rate vs Birth Rate

105 95 85 Literacy Rate 75 65 55 45 35 25 5 15 25 Birth Rate 35 45 55 R = 0.8824

Then, we try the power regression. The correlation is 0.882; not a weak one, but definitely not as strong as the ones above..

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Quadratic Regression

Literacy Rate vs Birth Rate

105 95 85 Literacy Rate 75 R = 0.9715 65 55 45 35 25 5 15 25 Birth Rate 35 45 55

We also tried the quadratic regression. The correlation is 0.971, which is also a strong one.

Cubic Regression

Literacy Rate vs Birth Rate

105 95 85 Literacy Rate 75 R = 0.9941 65 55 45 35 25 5 15 25 Birth Rate 35 45 55

Lastly, we tried the cubic regression. It gives the strongest correlation, which is 0.994.

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Analysis of model and data Looking at the correlation values we obtained from the five graphs above, it may seem that the cubic regression is the best one, as it has the strongest correlation. However, the cubic regression has alternating concavities, and this is logically incorrect, since it isnt true that countries with birth rates larger than 55 will have high literacy rates. Therefore, the best model is the exponential graph, which gives the second highest correlation of 0.977. This graph is an excellent demonstration of what happens in the real world, since no matter how high the birth rate is in a nation, there will be literate people, making the exponential line curve towards the asymptote on the x-axis.

Outliners In the data we chose, there were not a lot of extreme outliers. For other countries that were not included in the set of data, it may not have been the case, and could have changed the results drastically. In the cubic, exponential, quadratic, and linear graphs, there are no major outliers but there are a few minor outliers. Finally, the power graph has not only a few minor outliers but also one major outlier. If the outlier was taken out then the results would have changed.

Conclusion From the five graphs above, it appears that no matter what graph is used, the correlation stays relatively strong, and therefore, we can conclude that there is an extremely strong relationship between the birth rate of a nation and its literacy rate. This proves that our hypothesis is correct. In conclusion, birth rates do affect the literacy rate of one country. The data above shows that there is a strong coefficient of determination, with a cause and effect relationship. The data collected was not bias but the way we use the data was bias, due to the fact that there were extreme difference between the literates and illiterates. In countries like China and India, the majority of the people are educated but there are some parts where the citizens are struggling to live. That should not be a grand effect to our results.

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Bibliography Akmam, Wardatul . "Women's Education and Fertility Rates in Developing Countries, With Special Reference to Bangladesh." www.eubios.info/EJ124/ej124i.htm. N.p., n.d. Web. 28 Apr. 2011. <www.eubios.info/EJ124/ej124i.htm>. "UNDP | United Nations Development Programme." UNDP | United Nations Development Programme. N.p., n.d. Web. 15 May 2011. <http://www.undp.org/>. "List of countries by literacy rate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia." Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. N.p., 14 May 2011. Web. 16 May 2011. <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_literacy_rate>. "List of sovereign states and dependent territories by birth rate." List of sovereign states and dependent territories by birth rate. N.p., 8 May 2011. Web. 16 May 2011. <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_by_birth_rate>

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