Aus Tin 20103394

Equity | Australia
6 October 2011
Produced and issued by: RBS Equities (Australia) Limited
Daily Bulletin
IN BRIEF
A summary of todays research
AUSTRALIA
STRATEGY & ECONOMICS
Kieran Davies (+61 2 8259 5171)
Dr Derek Jellinek (+61 2 8259 5848)
a Lend Lease Corporation (A$7.00) Buy TP A$10.75

Virtuous recycling continues
Andrew Hodge (+61 2 8259 6608)
Transfield Services (A$1.970) Hold TP A$2.13

Finds a buyer
Andrew Hodge (+61 2 8259 6608)
11
Billabong International (A$3.29) Hold TP& A$3.65

The band-aid rule
Daniel Broeren (+61 2 8259 5381)
17
Global Views
The possible next leg of a US Treasury rally
Equity Research
23
Global Action Pack
RBS Research
25
Thiva Nagaratnam (+61 2 8259 5373)
29
37
41
Economics Comment
Retail trade, Aug 2011
INDUSTRIALS
a CSL Ltd (A$29.40) Hold TP A$29.31

HyQ on track for 2HCY12 debut
GLOBAL
DATABASE
Company financial forecasts
Sector valuation aggregates
Price performance
EX DIVs 6 OCT
Code
ORL
CWP
NWH
TPM
ASL
2H
2H
2H
2H
2H
DPS
28.0c
12.0c
5.0c
2.3c
6.5c
Frnkd
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Ex date
6 Oct
10 Oct
10 Oct
12 Oct
13 Oct
1H = interim, 2H = final; SP = special

Source: IRESS
TRADING ALERTs
Code
(ST rec)
Open Open
date price
Indictv
close
Exp
date
AIO (Buy) 22 Aug 1.56 1.64-1.67 21 Oct

Catalyst: Resolution of wage negotiations
TEN (Hold) 27 Sep 0.87 0.81-0.83 27 Nov
Catalyst: 20 October trading update
RBS Equities (Australia) Limited

ABN 84 002 768 701, AFS Licence 240530
Level 29, RBS Tower, 88 Phillip Street

Sydney NSW 2000, Australia
http://research.rbsm.com
y = result
= flashnote
Rec = recommendation
TP = target price
= change in EPS or DPS of at least 5%, or any change in recommendation or target price.
= ex-100 company
%&
Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix.
TP&
IN BRIEF
STRATEGY & ECONOMICS
Economics Comment
Kieran Davies (+61 2 8259 5171)
Headline retail sales posted another solid rise of 0.6% in August. Retail sales seem to be improving after
languishing over the past year or so. Retail trade beat expectations with a 0.6% rise in August (RBS: +0.2%; market:
+0.2%), which followed an upwardly-revised rise of 0.6% in July. This was the strongest growth over a two-month period
since late 2009, although annual growth is still weak given earlier sluggishness, increasing from 1.5 to 2.1%.
INDUSTRIALS
a CSL Ltd (A$29.40) Hold TP A$29.31
Dr Derek Jellinek (+61 2 8259 5848)
On the heels of the US filing acceptance for HyQ, Baxter has filed with EU regulators. We continue to view a high
probability for regulatory clearance, with risk to CSLs estimated US$300m sub-Q franchise given its less compelling
value proposition.
a Lend Lease Corporation (A$7.00) Buy TP A$10.75
Andrew Hodge (+61 2 8259 6608)
The sale of a further PPP assets into a LLC managed fund (c.A$10m profit) while continuing to generate ongoing funds
management and service fees illustrates the virtuous nature of the LLC business model. We see a series of catalysts
unfolding to support a re-rating from 7.9x FY12F. Buy maintained.
Transfield Services (A$1.970) Hold TP A$2.13
Andrew Hodge (+61 2 8259 6608)
11
In our view TSE's buyback is more about a message to the market around its view on its business as it is about the
accretion. We believe an acquisition remains a focus for the group.
Billabong International (A$3.29) Hold TP& A$3.65
Daniel Broeren (+61 2 8259 5381)
17
Further devaluation of the AUD will see BBG's US-denominated debt expand. By our calculations a 90c AUD/USD will
result in BBG's net debt/EBITDA breaking 3x, where we expect its banking covenant to sit. With a worsening global
backdrop, a dilutive capital raising now may be the best outcome for investors.
GLOBAL
Global Views
Equity Research
23
European concerns continue to dominate the headlines and asset price movements, as better than expected US ISM
data was brushed aside in favour of flight-to-quality buying.
Global Action Pack
RBS Research
25
Wednesday 5 October 2011
Daily Bulletin | 6 October 2011
Australia/NZ Strategy and Economics Australia Alert
5 October 2011
Retail trade, Aug 2011: Another solid rise

Kieran Davies and Felicity Emmett
Key facts
Market reaction*
Before
Unit
Previous
Revised
RBS
Market
Actual
Nominal retail trade
% mom
+0.5
+0.6
+0.2
+0.2
+0.6
Large business retail trade
% mom
+0.2
..
na
na
+0.4
After
AUD
0.9515
0.9505
ASX-200
3,924
3,911
30D cash futures
4.36
4.38
90D BB futures
4.17
4.19
sales seem to be improving after languishing over the past year or so. Retail
3Y bond futures
3.42
3.43
trade beat expectations with a 0.6% rise in August (RBS: +0.2%; market: +0.2%),
10Y bond futures
4.09
4.08
* 15 minutes before and after release
Source: ABS, Bloomberg, Dow Jones, RBS and Reuters
Headline retail sales posted another solid rise of 0.6% in August. Retail
which followed an upwardly-revised rise of 0.6% in July. This was the strongest
growth over a two-month period since late 2009, although annual growth is still
weak given earlier sluggishness, increasing from 1.5 to 2.1%.
Futures yields are from the nearest contract

Source: Bloomberg and RBS
The strength in sales was driven by food sales, household goods, and
Nominal retail trade
cafes, takeaways and restaurants. Food sales grew solidly, up 0.6% (a 0.3pp
Month
% mom
% yoy
Previous
addition to total sales). Household goods were up 1.7% (0.3pp), which was the
Feb-11
0.9
3.6
1.0
best result since February and reflected strength in furniture, floor coverings and
Mar-11
-0.4
2.5
-0.4
hardware supplies. Cafes, takeaways and restaurants again grew strongly, up
Apr-11
1.0
3.0
1.0
1.2% (+0.2pp), reflecting another big rise in spending on cafes and restaurants.
May-11
-0.6
2.0
-0.6
Clothing and soft goods were broadly flat after a 4% fall in July (no contribution)
Jun-11
-0.1
1.4
-0.1
as a rise in spending on footwear offset a drop in clothing sales. Other retailing
Jul-11
0.6
1.5
0.5
was also broadly flat after a strong 2% rise in July (no contribution). Department
Aug-11
0.6
2.1
store sales see-sawed, down 0.8% after a 1.1% rise in July (-0.1pp).
Source: ABS and RBS
The underlying trend in sales is improving, albeit at a slightly slower pace.

Large-store retail sales, which the Reserve Bank regards as a more reliable read
on the trend, rose by 0.4% after a 0.2% increase in July. This was the best twomonth result since the start of this year, although annual growth is still weak at
2.1%.
New South Wales, which has been in dire straits this year, continued to
improve, while WA continues to boom. Sales again rose by 1% in New South
Wales, which followed a terrible performance in the first half of this year when
sales fell almost every month (sales are broadly unchanged from a year ago).
Sales were almost as strong in Western Australia, where sales again rose by
0.9% (up 8.9% over the past year). Queensland sales rebounded by 0.5% (up
3.0% on a year ago), while Victorian sales were sluggish with a 0.3% increase (up
2.6% over the past year).
Consumer spending looks to be better than expected in Q3.
The
improvement in retail sales is surprising considering that retailers have lost

market share to overseas on-line competitors and with consumer surveys
showing that households are very pessimistic about both their own financial
situation and the outlook. Vehicle sales have also improved, up 4% in August to
their highest level since May last year, although this is probably overstated as
there has been catch-up after the significant disruptions caused by the tragic
Japanese tsunami. There is less information on spending on services, which has
Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix
The Royal Bank of Scotland
mattered more than retail goods over the past year, but services may have lost
July after reaching a record peak in April and may ease as the dollar has recently
fallen below parity.
Nonetheless, the impression we have is that consumer
spending is doing better than commonly thought and to date has proven more
responsive to trends in income than sentiment.
Australia/NZ Strategy and Economics
momentum recently. For example, overseas travel for holidays was up 0.4% in
NOMINAL RETAIL TRADE
Nominal retail trade - total (% mom)
Sales continued to improve in August

Nominal retail trade - total (% yoy)
16
14
12
10
2
8
1
6
0
-1
2
0
-2
05
07
09
00
11
Nominal retail trade - large business sales (% mom)
02
04
06
08
10
12
Nominal retail trade - large business sales (% yoy)
18
16
14
3
12
2
10
6
4
-1
2
-2
0
-3
-2
05
07
09
11
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
NOMINAL RETAIL TRADE BY REGION

Sales were again strong in New South Wales, while WA continues to boom
Nominal retail trade - by region (% yoy)
20
Nominal retail trade - by region (% yoy)
20
15
Queensland
15
10
10
WA
0
NSW
Victoria
-5
-5
-10
-10
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
NOMINAL RETAIL TRADE BY CATEGORY

Discretionary spending is showing signs of improvement after weak growth over the past year
Nominal retail trade - food (% yoy)
12
Nominal retail trade - household goods (% yoy)
35
30
10
25
20
15
6
10
5
0
2
-5
-10
0
00
02
04
06
08
10
Nominal retail trade - clothing & soft goods (% yoy)
25
00
12
02
04
06
08
10
12
10
12
Nominal retail trade - department stores (% yoy)
40
20
30
15
20
10
5
10
0
0
-5
-10
-10
-15
-20
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Nominal retail trade - other retailing (% yoy)
20
00
02
04
06
08
Nominal retail trade - cafes, restaurants & take-away (% yoy)
25
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Source: ABS, Ecowin and RBS
Produced by: RBS Equities (Australia) Limited
5 October 2011
Hold
Target price
A$29.31
Price
A$29.40
CSL Ltd
HyQ on track for 2HCY12 debut
On the heels of the US filing acceptance for HyQ, Baxter has filed with EU
regulators. We continue to view a high probability for regulatory clearance, with
risk to CSLs estimated US$300m sub-Q franchise given its less compelling value
proposition.
HyQ filed in EU; Market debut targeting 2HCY12
Baxter has lodged its EU dossier for HyQ, a once-monthly subcutaneous (sub-Q)
immunoglobulin product. The filing follows on the heels of FDAs filing acceptance last month.
The filing is based on positive results from an open-label, multi-centre Phase 3 study in 89
primary immunodeficiency patients which was designed to evaluate the effectiveness of HyQ
in the prevention of serious acute bacterial infections. The study met its primary endpoint,
reporting a rate of 0.025 per patient per year, below the required efficacy hurdle rate of 1.0.
Flashnote
Equity | Australia | Health Care
On the safety front, HyQ was well tolerated; frequently reported adverse events including:
infusion site reactions (20%); headache (3%); fatigue (1%) and fever (1%).
The complete data set will be presented at The American College of Allergy, Asthma and
Immunology (ACAAI) meeting (3-8 November in Boston, MA, USA). We continue to believe
the data will confirm interim results, showing HyQ use mainly at one injection site and at
infusion volumes, intervals and rates equivalent to a patients intravenous administration.
We believe the probability for approval is high and continue to view HyQ as a key competitive
threat to CSLs estimate US$300m sub-Q franchise as detailed in a prior report (Getting
under CSLs skin; 7 July), given numerous advantages including: one injection once every 34wks vs multiple injections 1-3x wkly; 4-6x faster infusion rates; improved systemic
absorption; less swelling and injection site reactions; and possible cost-savings benefit.
Upside limited; maintain Hold

While FX uplift, safe-haven buying and likely A$900m buy-back have seen shares come off
their lows, we continue see limited upside risk with CSLs dominance in the sub-Q space
under threat, strong growth catalysts lacking and shares trading at a forward PE of 16x.
Sub-Q market sales and sales growth projection

1,200
200%
180%
1,000
160%
Dr Derek Jellinek
+61 2 8259 5848
derek.jellinek@rbs.com
Elliott Crane
+61 2 8259 6729
elliot.crane@rbs.com
RBS Equities (Australia) Limited,

ABN 84 002 768 701, AFS
Licence 240530, Level 29, RBS
Tower, 88 Phillip Street, Sydney
NSW 2000, Australia
120%
100%
600
80%
60%
400
yoy Sub-Q growth
Analysts
Sub-Q sales (US$)
140%
800
40%
20%
200
0%
-
-20%
2010
2011
2012
TLCR
2013
CSL
2014
BAX
2015
2016
TLCR
2017
CSL
2018
2019
BAX
Source: Company data, Baxter, Talecris, RBS forecasts
Financial Summary
Year to 30 Jun (A$m)
Income statement
Divisional sales
Total revenue
EBITDA
Associate income
Depreciation/Amortisation
EBITA
Goodwill amortisation
EBIT
EBIT(incl associate profit)
Net interest expense
Pre-tax profit
Income tax expense
After-tax profit
Minority interests
NPAT pre significant items
Significant items
Reported NPAT
AIFRS
2010A
4455.8
4626.9
1513.7
0.0
-156.6
1357.1
0.0
1357.1
1357.1
22.3
1379.5
-326.6
1052.9
0.0
1052.9
0.0
1052.9
AIFRS
2011A
4187.6
4321.6
1356.9
0.0
-172.6
1184.2
0.0
1184.2
1184.2
13.9
1198.1
-257.5
940.6
0.0
940.6
0.0
940.6
AIFRS
2012F
4372.8
4500.4
1410.6
0.0
-180.3
1230.3
0.0
1230.3
1230.3
3.4
1233.7
-278.8
954.9
0.0
954.9
0.0
954.9
AIFRS
2013F
4480.6
4614.6
1465.1
0.0
-184.7
1280.4
0.0
1280.4
1280.4
17.1
1297.5
-293.2
1004.2
0.0
1004.2
0.0
1004.2
AIFRS
2014F
4675.6
4809.0
1534.4
0.0
-192.8
1341.6
0.0
1341.6
1341.6
34.7
1376.4
-309.7
1066.7
0.0
1066.7
0.0
1066.7
Divisional sales revenue

CSL Behring
CSL Bioplasma
CSL Biotherapies
Other revenue
Intellectual Property Licensing
2010A
3497.8
322.0
636.0
59.6
111.5
2011A
3452.4
315.6
419.6
38.3
95.7
2012F
3616.8
340.8
415.1
38.3
89.4
2013F
3693.1
361.3
426.3
38.3
95.7
2014F
3865.7
372.1
437.8
38.3
95.1
Divisional EBIT
CSL Behring
CSL Bioplasma
CSL Biotherapies
Other
Intellectual Property Licensing
2010A
1130.5
25.8
24.9
79.7
96.3
2011A
1061.7
25.2
46.4
-32.0
82.8
2012F
1123.8
27.3
-14.8
17.7
76.3
2013F
1179.3
28.9
-17.9
8.4
81.7
2014F
1254.3
29.8
-19.9
-3.7
81.3
Cash flow statement

EBITDA
Change in working capital
Net interest (pd)/rec
Taxes paid
Other oper cash items
2010A
1513.7
-108.1
18.9
-179.8
-76.7
2011A
1356.9
81.1
16.4
-288.7
0.0
2012F
1410.6
-78.3
3.4
-278.8
0.0
2013F
1465.1
-45.6
17.1
-293.2
0.0
2014F
1534.4
-82.5
34.7
-309.7
0.0
Cash flow from ops (1)

Capex (2)
Disposals/(acquisitions)
Other investing cash flow
Cash flow from invest (3)
Incr/(decr) in equity
Incr/(decr) in debt
Ordinary dividend paid
Preferred dividends (4)
Other financing cash flow
Cash flow from fin (5)
Forex and disc ops (6)
Inc/(decr) cash (1+3+5+6)
Equity FCF (1+2+4)
1168.0
-244.3
-51.3
2.6
-293.0
-1708.1
-214.8
-429.5
0.0
0.1
-2352.5
0.0
-1477.5
923.7
1165.7
-198.5
-13.4
2.2
-209.6
-883.4
31.0
-435.9
0.0
-0.3
-1288.6
0.0
-332.5
967.2
1056.8
-318.4
0.0
0.0
-318.4
-61.4
0.0
-426.3
0.0
0.0
-487.6
0.0
250.8
738.4
1143.3
-264.3
0.0
0.0
-264.3
0.0
0.0
-446.3
0.0
0.0
-446.3
0.0
432.8
879.0
1177.0
-247.5
0.0
0.0
-247.5
0.0
0.0
-477.8
0.0
0.0
-477.8
0.0
451.7
929.5
Balance sheet
Cash & deposits
Trade debtors
Inventory
Investments
Goodwill
Other intangible assets
Fixed assets
Other assets
Total assets
Short-term borrowings
Trade payables
Long-term borrowings
Provisions
Other liabilities
Total liabilities
Preference shares
Hybrid equity
Share capital
Other reserves
Retained earnings
Other equity
Total equity
Minority interest
Total shareholders' equity
Total liabilities & SE
2010A
1001.1
883.0
1454.6
4.6
722.0
233.5
1207.8
204.4
5711.0
26.0
485.4
436.2
114.8
433.4
1495.8
0.0
0.0
1139.2
-242.6
3318.6
0.0
4215.2
0.0
4215.2
5711.0
2011A
479.4
808.7
1456.0
2.3
681.6
233.5
1207.3
199.3
5068.0
226.2
493.5
190.0
122.2
391.7
1423.6
0.0
0.0
253.9
-421.6
3812.1
0.0
3644.4
0.0
3644.4
5068.0
2012F
730.2
844.4
1520.4
2.3
681.6
242.0
1336.8
199.3
5557.1
226.2
515.3
190.0
122.2
393.9
1447.7
0.0
0.0
192.5
-421.6
4338.5
0.0
4109.4
0.0
4109.4
5557.1
2013F
1162.9
865.2
1557.9
2.3
681.6
241.5
1417.0
199.3
6127.7
226.2
528.0
190.0
122.2
408.3
1474.8
0.0
0.0
192.5
-421.6
4882.1
0.0
4653.0
0.0
4653.0
6127.7
2014F
1614.7
902.9
1625.7
2.3
681.6
236.7
1476.5
199.3
6739.7
226.2
551.0
190.0
122.2
419.8
1509.3
0.0
0.0
192.5
-421.6
5459.5
0.0
5230.4
0.0
5230.4
6739.7
Closing price (A$)

Valuation metrics
Preferred methodology
DCF valuation inputs
Rf
Rm-Rf
Equity Beta
CAPM (Rf+Beta(Rm-Rf))
E/EV*Ke+D/EV*Kd(1-t)
Equity (E/EV)
Debt (D/EV)
Interest rate
Tax rate (t)
WACC
Price target (A$)
29.40
Val'n (A$)
DCF, EV/EBITDA, PE
5.25%
6.00%
1.26
12.8%
64.0%
36.0%
7.25%
30.0%
10.0%
29.31
$
10-year rate
Margin
Kd
Ke
NPV cash flow (A$m)
Minority interest (A$m)
Net debt (A$m)
Investments (A$m)
Equity market value (A$m)
Diluted no. of shares (m)
DCF valuation (A$)
29.31
5.25%
2.0%
7.25%
12.8%
17060.8
0.0
-63.2
2.3
17126.2
527.8
32.45
2011A
15445.3
3.7
11.4
13.0
16.9
1.1
2012F
15194.6
3.5
10.8
12.4
16.2
1.1
2013F
14761.8
3.3
10.1
11.5
15.4
1.0
2014F
14310.1
3.1
9.3
10.7
14.5
0.9
2011A
11.3
16.9
2012F
10.7
16.2
2013F
10.0
15.4
2014F
9.3
14.5
Comparable company data (x)

ResMed Inc
EV/EBITDA
Year to 30 Jun
EV/EBIT
PE
PEG
Cochlear
EV/EBITDA
Year to 30 Jun
EV/EBIT
PE
PEG
2012F
10.5
13.6
18.4
1.4
9.2
10.2
15.5
0.9
2013F
9.1
11.9
16.6
1.2
7.9
8.6
13.1
0.8
2014F
7.7
10.1
14.9
1.1
6.6
7.2
10.9
0.6
Per share data

No. shares
2011A
529.0
2012F
526.5
2013F
526.5
2014F
526.5
173.6
173.6
80.0
45.1
2.7
180.9
180.9
81.0
44.9
2.8
190.7
190.7
88.0
45.9
3.0
202.6
202.6
93.0
45.9
3.2
Growth ratios
Sales growth
Operating cost growth
EBITDA growth
EBITA growth
Divisional EBIT growth
CSL Behring
CSL Bioplasma
CSL Biotherapies
2011A
-6.0%
-3.8%
-10.4%
-12.7%
2012F
4.4%
4.6%
4.0%
3.9%
2013F
2.5%
1.8%
3.9%
4.1%
2014F
4.4%
4.2%
4.7%
4.8%
-6.1%
-2.0%
86.8%
5.8%
8.0%
-131.8%
4.9%
6.0%
21.3%
6.4%
3.0%
11.3%
EBIT growth
NPAT growth
Normalised NPAT growth
EPS growth
Normalised EPS growth
-12.7%
-10.7%
-10.7%
-6.3%
-6.3%
3.9%
1.5%
1.5%
4.2%
4.2%
4.1%
5.2%
5.2%
5.4%
5.4%
4.8%
6.2%
6.2%
6.2%
6.2%
Operating performance
Asset turnover (%)
EBITDA margin (%)
EBIT margin (%)
Net profit margin (%)
Return on net assets (%)
Net debt (A$m)
Net debt/equity (%)
Net interest/EBIT cover (x)
ROIC (%)
2011A
19.4
32.4
28.3
22.5
32.5
-63.2
-1.7
-85.4
21.9
2012F
20.6
32.4
28.3
22.5
29.9
-313.9
-7.6
-364.1
23.3
2013F
19.2
32.3
28.1
21.8
27.5
-746.7
-16.0
-75.1
22.9
2014F
18.2
32.7
28.6
22.4
25.7
-1198.4
-22.9
-38.6
23.3
Internal liquidity
Current ratio (x)
Receivables turnover (x)
Payables turnover (x)
2011A
2.9
5.0
5.8
2012F
3.2
5.3
5.9
2013F
3.6
5.2
5.8
2014F
4.0
5.3
5.8
Multiples
Enterprise value (A$m)
EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/EBIT (x)
PE (normalised) (x)
PEG (normalised) (x)
At target price
EV/EBITDA (x)
PE (normalised) (x)
EPS (cps)
EPS (normalised) (c)
Dividend per share (c)
Dividend payout ratio (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Source: Company data, RBS forecasts
CSL Ltd | Key Financial Data | 5 October 2011
5 October 2011
Buy
Target price
A$10.75
Price
A$7.00
Lend Lease Corporation

Virtuous recycling continues
The sale of a further PPP assets into a LLC managed fund (c.A$10m profit) while
continuing to generate ongoing funds management and service fees illustrates
the virtuous nature of the LLC business model. We see a series of catalysts
unfolding to support a re-rating from 7.9x FY12F. Buy maintained.
Flashnote
Equity | Australia | Real Estate Devl
LLC has completed that sale of equity in three operational UK healthcare and education PPP
assets to the Lend Lease UK Infrastructure Fund for 30m (A$47m). This is the second
tranche of assets LLC has sold to the fund, which launched in December 2010 with 220m in
committed capital. Under the initial transaction LLC sold 75m (A$121m) of UK PPP assets
into the fund, with these subsequent three PPP assets forming part of a deferred settlement
given they were under construction at the time. LLC continues to retain a minority coinvestment in the fund, alongside the majority investor, Dutch pension fund service provider,
PGGM Vermogensbeheer B.V.
This transaction is consistent with LLCs capital recycling strategy, which enables LLC to
recycle further capital in the UK and remain activity involved in the fund though the provision
of fund asset, facilities management and funds management services. We expect further PPP
assets sales to the fund over the forthcoming 2-3 years, with LLC continuing to retain UK PPP
equity investments and committed equity, which we estimate at 64m, down on the 94.1m
as at June 2011.
LLC is expected to generate a profit on the sale of these assets of around A$10m, which is
already captured in our current forecasts. Accordingly, we will not be revising our FY12
outlook following the transaction, however the sale increases our confidence in our FY12
earnings forecasts.
We continue to believe LLC is undervalued, with the business well placed to grow earnings
from a ramp-up in activity on major projects (particularly Barangaroo and RNA). Further, we
consider Abigroup and Baulderstone as being well positioned to take advantage of the strong
medium-term growth outlook for the Australian resources sector and government
infrastructure capex programs . Buy maintained.
Key forecasts
FY10A
FY11A
FY12F
FY13F
FY14F
Total property income (A$m)
10570
9014
13805
14724
15736
Reported net profit (A$m)
345.6
492.8
476.3
560.9
658.1
Normalised net profit (A$m)
323.6
485.3
476.3
560.9
658.1
Tony Sherlock
Normalised EPS (c)
68.30
90.31
87.68
102.5
119.4
+61 2 8259 5548

tony.sherlock@rbs.com
Normalised EPS growth (%)
-0.73
32.2
-2.91
16.9
16.4
32.00
35.00
44.00
51.50
59.50
Analysts
Andrew Hodge
+61 2 8259 6608
andrew.hodge@rbs.com
Andrew Scott
Dividend yield (%)
4.64
5.08
6.39
7.47
8.64
+61 2 8259 5847

andrew.g.scott@rbs.com
Normalised PE (x)
10.09
7.63
7.86
6.72
5.77
Book value per share (c)
617.7
664.6
701.1
744.1
794.2
RBS Equities (Australia) Limited,

ABN 84 002 768 701, AFS
Licence 240530, Level 29, RBS
Tower, 88 Phillip Street, Sydney
NSW 2000, Australia
Disc/(prem) to NTA (%)
-40.7
-63.7
-49.4
-36.2
-23.0
Pre non-recurring items and post preference dividends

Accounting standard: AIFRS
year to Jun, fully diluted
Financial Summary
Income statement
Divisional sales
Total revenue
EBITDA
Depreciation
EBITA
EBIT
Pre-tax profit
Income tax expense
After-tax profit
Minority interests
NPAT
Significant items
NPAT post abnormals
AIFRS
2010A
10570.0
10570.0
482.5
-39.8
442.7
442.7
442.7
-25.6
417.1
-90.9
326.2
2.6
323.6
22.0
345.6
AIFRS
2011A
9014.1
9014.1
710.7
-52.1
658.6
658.6
658.6
-37.8
620.8
-135.1
485.7
-0.4
485.3
7.5
492.8
AIFRS
2012F
13805.3
13805.3
773.4
-87.2
686.2
686.2
686.2
-79.5
606.7
-130.4
476.3
0.0
476.3
0.0
476.3
AIFRS
2013F
14724.0
14724.0
886.9
-89.9
797.0
797.0
797.0
-82.5
714.5
-153.6
560.9
0.0
560.9
0.0
560.9
AIFRS
2014F
15735.7
15735.7
1002.1
-95.1
906.9
906.9
906.9
-68.6
838.3
-180.2
658.1
0.0
658.1
0.0
658.1
Divisional EBITDA
Development
Investment Mgmt
Project Mgmt & Construction
PPP
Corporate
2010A
177.6
180.4
145.3
81.8
-102.6
2011A
184.4
318.9
210.1
123.8
-126.5
2012F
317.3
123.4
380.0
53.8
-101.2
2013F
381.8
128.6
432.6
48.2
-104.2
2014F
408.5
137.5
519.4
45.0
-108.4
Regional EBITDA
Australia
Asia
Europe
Americas
2010A
266.9
33.8
137.6
44.1
2011A
327.4
46.2
126.7
210.4
2012F
586.7
49.1
91.3
46.4
2013F
634.2
78.2
120.2
54.4
2014F
685.4
84.6
165.4
66.7
Cash flow statement

EBITDA
Taxes paid
Capex (2)
Incr/(decr) in debt
Equity FCF (1+2+4)
2010A
482.5
-53.7
-33.8
-82.1
-84.9
228.0
-87.5
-575.0
-21.7
-309.9
-10.5
-126.1
0.0
0.0
652.5
-55.5
515.1
140.5
2011A
710.7
-67.2
-39.8
-135.1
-510.8
-42.2
-47.5
-1048.6
-16.8
-687.0
391.2
-127.3
0.0
-47.6
251.9
-76.8
-554.1
-89.7
2012F
773.4
-1053.7
-79.5
-130.4
0.0
-490.2
-82.8
-258.2
0.0
154.0
750.0
-188.2
0.0
0.0
561.8
0.0
225.6
-572.9
2013F
886.9
-411.3
-82.5
-153.6
0.0
239.5
-116.9
-208.4
0.0
-325.4
-200.0
-234.7
0.0
0.0
-434.7
0.0
-520.5
122.6
2014F
1002.1
-168.4
-68.6
-180.2
0.0
584.8
-124.7
63.1
0.0
-61.6
-200.0
-274.8
0.0
0.0
-474.8
0.0
48.5
460.1
Balance sheet
Cash & deposits
Trade debtors
Investments
Goodwill
Fixed assets
Other assets
Total assets
Trade payables
Provisions
Other liabilities
Total liabilities
Share capital
Other reserves
Retained earnings
Other equity
Total equity
Minority interest
2010A
1635.9
1769.7
3734.8
437.3
352.7
3440.7
11371.1
0.0
3271.3
1446.6
143.7
3120.5
7982.1
1944.8
-35.1
1439.1
0.0
3348.8
40.2
3389.0
11371.1
2011A
1046.2
1724.0
3757.4
1077.3
595.2
3948.9
12149.0
0.0
3263.1
1693.9
200.9
3358.5
8516.4
1980.4
-108.4
1725.6
0.0
3597.6
34.6
3632.2
12148.6
2012F
1271.8
2623.0
4265.7
1077.3
602.7
3990.4
13831.0
0.0
3658.4
2443.9
200.9
3671.6
9974.8
1980.4
-108.4
1949.5
0.0
3821.5
34.6
3856.1
13831.0
2013F
751.3
2944.8
4474.2
1077.3
641.7
4073.1
13962.3
0.0
3651.6
2243.9
200.9
3746.3
9842.7
1980.4
-108.4
2213.0
0.0
4085.0
34.6
4119.6
13962.3
2014F
799.8
3147.1
4411.0
1077.3
683.3
4152.1
14270.6
0.0
3776.6
2043.9
200.9
3817.7
9839.1
1980.4
-108.4
2524.9
0.0
4396.9
34.6
4431.5
14270.6
Closing price (A$)

Valuation metrics
Rf
Rm-Rf
Beta
Equity (E/EV)
Debt (D/EV)
Interest rate
Tax rate (t)
WACC
7.00
Val'n (A$)
SOTP
5.25%
6.00%
1.16
12.2%
80.0%
20.0%
7.75%
30.0%
10.9%
Multiples
EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/EBIT (x)
PE (pre-goodwill) (x)
PEG (pre-goodwill) (x)
2011A
4782.3
0.5
6.7
7.3
7.6
3.1
At target price
EV/EBITDA (x)
2011A
9.8
11.9
10.75
Price target (A$)
10-year rate
Margin
Kd
Ke
Net debt (A$m)
DCF valuation (A$)
NPV cash flow (A$m)
Investments (A$m)
2012F
2013F
5306.7
5627.2
0.4
0.4
6.9
6.3
7.7
7.1
7.9
6.7
3.1
2.7
10.75
5.25%
2.5%
7.75%
12.2%
34.6
1373.5
543.2
11.04
3138.8
4265.7
5996.4
2014F
5378.7
0.3
5.4
5.9
5.8
2.3
2012F
9.7
12.3
2013F
8.8
10.5
2014F
7.6
9.0

Leighton Holdings
EV/EBITDA
Year to 30 Jun
EV/EBIT
PE
PEG
Goodman Group
EV/EBITDA
Year to 30 Jun
EV/EBIT
PE
PEG
2012F
3.1
5.9
10.0
4.0
15.5
15.7
8.9
3.5
2013F
3.1
5.7
9.1
3.6
13.7
13.8
8.3
3.3
2014F
2.8
5.1
8.4
3.3
12.2
12.4
8.0
3.2
Per share data

No. shares
EPS (cps)
Dividend yield (%)
2011A
541.4
91.7
90.3
35.0
41.0
5.1
2012F
545.0
87.7
87.7
44.0
53.0
6.4
2013F
549.0
102.5
102.5
51.5
53.0
7.5
2014F
553.6
119.4
119.4
59.5
52.6
8.6
Growth ratios
EBITDA growth
EBITA growth
EBIT growth
NPAT growth
Pre-goodwill NPAT growth
Pre-goodwill EPS growth
Regional EBITDA growth
Australia
Asia
Europe
2011A
-17.7%
47.3%
48.8%
48.8%
50.0%
50.0%
32.2%
32.2%
2012F
56.9%
8.8%
4.2%
4.2%
-1.9%
-1.9%
-2.9%
-2.9%
2013F
6.2%
14.7%
16.1%
16.1%
17.8%
17.8%
16.9%
16.9%
2014F
6.5%
13.0%
13.8%
13.8%
17.3%
17.3%
16.4%
16.4%
22.7%
36.6%
-7.9%
79.2%
6.4%
-28.0%
8.1%
59.2%
31.7%
8.1%
8.1%
37.6%
Asset turnover (%)
EBITDA margin (%)
EBIT margin (%)
Net debt (A$m)
Net debt/(debt+equity) (%)
Net debt/equity (%)
ROIC (%)
2011A
19.2
7.9
7.3
5.4
18.1
647.7
15.1
17.8
17.4
13.5
2012F
26.6
7.9
7.3
5.4
17.8
1172.1
23.3
30.4
8.6
10.4
2013F
26.5
5.6
5.0
3.4
19.3
1492.6
26.6
36.2
9.7
10.4
2014F
27.9
6.0
5.4
3.8
20.5
1244.1
21.9
28.1
13.2
10.7
Lend Lease Corporation | Key Financial Data | 5 October 2011
10
Equity | Australia | Comm & Prof Services
5 October 2011
Transfield Services
Hold
Finds a buyer
Target price
In our view TSE's buyback is more about a message to the market around its
view on its business as it is about the accretion. We believe an acquisition
remains a focus for the group.
A$2.13
Price
A$1.970
Short term (0-60 days)
n/a
Key forecasts
Price performance
Price (A$)
Absolute (%)
(1M)
(3M)
(12M)
2.28
3.41
3.33
-13.6
-42.2
-40.9
-5.3
-31.2
-29.4
Rel market (%)

Rel sector (%)
Oct 08
5
-1.9
Oct 09
-27.7
-31.1
Oct 10
FY10A
FY11A
FY12F
FY13F
FY14F
EBITDA (A$m)
192.8
216.4
255.2
283.4
299.9
73.00
-19.7
112.3
130.8
146.1
123.7
128.2
126.3
144.0
158.7
Normalised EPS (c)
29.90
26.03
23.43
28.37 % 31.38 %
-12.8
-13.0
-10.0
21.10
10.60
14.00
14.00
14.00
15.50
17.50
Dividend yield (%)
7.11
7.11
7.11
7.87
8.88
Normalised PE (x)
6.59
7.57
8.41
6.94
6.28
4.25
EV/EBITDA (x)
7.04
6.16
5.49
4.77
Price/net oper. CF (x)
3.62
11.80
6.23
4.47 &
ROIC (%)
8.24
10.10
8.99
8.99
Use of %& indicates that the line item has changed by at least 5%.
1. Pre non-recurring items and post preference dividends
Accounting standard: AIFRS
4.18 &
10.00
Accretive on a P&L basis on our numbers up to A$4.40 per share

1
TSE.AX
S&P/ASX200
Market capitalisation
A$1.08bn (US$1.03bn)
Average (12M) daily turnover
TSEs has announced a buyback of up to 10% of the issued shares (maximum of 44.1m
shares). The company has indicated it will be accretive up to A$4.50 per share. Our analysis
says A$4.40 per share given we have a slightly lower FY12 pre-amortisation figure than
management. That difference is a function of our application of the tax shield against the
amortisation add back. At an after tax cost of 5.3%, we see it accretive up to a PER of 18.9x.
A$6.83m (US$7.08m)
Sector: BBG AP All Industrial
Part of: ASX/S&P 100
RIC: TSE.AX, TSE AU
Priced A$1.97 at close 5 Oct 2011.
Source: Bloomberg
Does it mean there are no better ideas? We think an acquisition remains a priority
Given the share price has fallen hard, we believe the board and management are sending a
message about their confidence in their business. We have factored in 44.1m shares being
purchased (10%), but believe the company will still look for acquisition opportunities. In our
view, if TSE finds something that it believes meets its criteria and that is bigger than A$200m
(which would stretch its balance sheet), then it will slow or stop the buyback to give itself the
extra capacity to make an acquisition we believe an acquisition remains a high priority.
EPS revisions: FY11 +0.7%, FY12 +5.0% & FY13 +5.6%
Analysts
Andrew Hodge
+61 2 8259 6608
andrew.hodge@rbs.com
Tony Sherlock
+61 2 8259 5548
tony.sherlock@rbs.com
We have no operational changes to our forecasts. Our assumptions for the buyback are an
average purchase price of A$2.00 per share and it is 100% completed and done on an equal
rate basis. We have used the companys after tax cost of debt assumption of 5.3%.
Looking cheap but in a cheap market that is not enough earnings certainty required
RBS Equities (Australia) Limited, ABN

84 002 768 701, AFS Licence 240530
Level 29, RBS Tower, 88 Phillip Street,
Do we think TSE is cheap? Yes. However, we still believe investors should wait until the next
major set of data points (1H12 results) to answer what we believe are the two critical
questions. Is the lower-than-expected FY12 Easternwell contribution only a function of
weather and timing issues, or are there structural elements contributing to this? What is the
underlying growth rate of the Australian O&M business? To answer the latter you need to
fully understand the earnings gap between FY11 and FY12. Until we can categorically
understand those two issues, we are not buyers of the stock.
Andrew Scott
+61 2 8259 5847
andrew.g.scott@rbs.com
11
Forecast revisions
Changes to our forecasts due to the forthcoming TSE buy-back are highlighted in the table below
Table 1 : TSE forecast revisions
FY12F
Revenue
FY13F
FY14F
Old
New
Chg
Old
New
Chg
Old
New
Chg
2,785
2,785
0.0%
2,916
2,916
0.0%
3,025
3,025
0.0%
0.0%
EBITDA
265.7
265.7
0.0%
293.4
293.4
0.0%
309.4
309.4
EBIT
170.7
170.7
0.0%
188.8
188.8
0.0%
208.0
208.0
0.0%
35.9
38.2
6.5%
30.8
37.1
20.7%
31.3
38.0
21.5%
Net Interest
Tax expense
20.4
19.7
-3.4%
21.9
20.0
-8.7%
25.4
23.4
-7.9%
NPAT
114.0
112.3
-1.4%
135.3
130.8
-3.3%
150.9
146.1
-3.1%
NPAT - pre amort (A$m)
127.9
126.3
-1.3%
148.5
144.0
-3.0%
163.4
158.7
-2.9%
20.7
20.8
0.5%
24.6
25.8
4.7%
27.4
28.9
5.3%
23.27
23.43
0.7%
27.0
28.4
5.0%
29.7
31.4
5.6%
14.0
14.0
0.0%
15.5
15.5
0.0%
17.0
17.5
2.9%
EPS ()
EPS - pre amort ()
DPS - ()
Source: RBS forecasts
Financial implications of on market buy back

In forecasting the impact of TSEs buy-back we have assumed that the buy-back will take place
evenly over one year from 20 October 2011 and the buy-back will be debt funded at an average
cost of 7.6% and a marginal tax rate of 30%. As TSE is actively considering acquisitions in the
infrastructure and resource/energy sectors, we would expect TSE to cease the buy-back in the
event of an acquisition greater than A$200m which would stretch its balance sheet and at a price
we believe it would be reluctant to do another capital raising.
Table 2 : TSE EPS impact of buy back for different average price per share
Buy-back price per share
$1.90
$2.00
$2.25
Maximum shares in buy-back
44.1
44.1
44.1
$2.55
44.1
Buy-back cost ($m)
83.9
88.3
99.3
112.5
Proportion of buy-back completed in FY12
70%
70%
70%
70%
Pre buy-back diluted FY12f EPS (pre-amort)
23.3
23.3
23.3
23.3
Post buy-back diluted FY12f EPS (pre-amort)
23.4
23.4
23.4
23.3
0.7%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
FY12 EPS Impact
change
FY13 EPS Impact
Pre-buy-back diluted FY13F EPS (pre-amort)
27.0
27.0
27.0
27.0
Post buy-back diluted FY13 EPS (pre-amort)
28.4
28.4
28.3
28.1
5.2%
5.0%
4.6%
4.1%
change
Valuation
We value TSE using a blend of DCF (risk-free rate 5.25%, market risk premium 6.0%, beta 1.05,
terminal growth 2.5%, WACC 10.5%) and SOTP based on EV/EBITA and PE. We have derived
our FY12F EV/EBITA multiple of 6.1x from TSEs peer group of comparison companies UGL,
SPT, MND, BLY, and WOR.
We calculate our PE-based target multiple of 9.1x for FY12 by applying a 10% discount to the
IBES consensus FY12 S&P/ASX 200 Industrials PE. The discount reflects our view that the core
TSE business will grow EPS more slowly than the market over the next three years, and that the
Easternwell business has a higher capital requirement. We add the TSI stake at the sale price of
A$0.85/share. Using an equal weighting of these three measures, our valuation is A$2.24. Under
our standard valuation methodology, we derive our 12-month target price by rolling forward our
valuation by our 12-month forward EPS growth forecasts one year from now. In this instance, we
apply a 5% discount until TSE rebuilds investor confidence around its future growth rates, capital
deployment and Easternwell business. Accordingly our price target is unchanged at A$2.13.
Transfield Services | Investment View | 5 October 2011
12
Table 3 : TSE - Blended valuation

Weight
Valuation (A$ps)
DCF valuation
33%
$2.95
Blended valuation (A$ps)

$0.97
EV/EBITA valuation (6.1x FY12F)
33%
$1.65
$0.54
PE valuation (9.1x FY12F)
34%
$2.13
$0.72
Blended equity valuation
100%
$2.24
Target price
$2.13
Premium to valuation
-5.0%
Current share price
$1.97
Potential upside to target price
8.1%
Key downside risks to our target price include: 1) lower-than-forecast growth in the recently
acquired Easternwell business; 2) increased pressure on margins in the services sector; 3)
decreasing levels of outsourcing by clients; 4) deterioration in economic conditions, particularly in
the resources and oil and gas sectors; 5) further deferrals of investment in infrastructure; and 6)
further increases in the AUD/USD cross-rate. Key upside risks to our target price include: 1)
significant market share gains for new work; 2) higher-than-expected margins in the Easternwell
business and stronger long-term growth prospects; and 3) a sharply decreasing AUD/USD cross
rate.
Chart 1 : TSE consensus 12-month forward PE
X
25
20
15
10
0
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
TSE 12M fwd PE
Jan-07
Jan-08
Average
Jan-09
Jan-10
+1 std dev
Jan-11
-1 std dev
Source: Datastream
Chart 2 : TSE consensus 12-month forward PE relative to S&P/ASX200
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
TSE 12m Fwd PE rel to S&P/ASX200
Jan-07
Average
Jan-08
Jan-09
+1 std dev
Jan-10
Jan-11
-1 std dev
Source: Datastream
13
Chart 3 : TSE consensus 12-month forward ROE

%
21
19
17
15
13
11
9
7
5
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
TSE 12m fwd ROE
Jan-06
Jan-07
Ave 12m fwd ROE
Jan-08
Jan-09
+1 std dev
Jan-10
Jan-11
-1 std dev
Source: Datastream
14
TSE - financial summary

Income statement
Divisional sales
Total revenue
EBITDA
Depreciation
EBITA
Amortisation/impairment
Associate income
Pre-tax profit
Income tax expense
After-tax profit
Minority interests
Significant items
Reported NPAT
Adjusted NPAT (pre-amort)
AIFRS
2010A
3150.3
3213.9
192.8
-46.1
119.0
0.0
9.3
128.3
-26.1
102.2
-5.7
73.6
-0.5
-22.9
73.0
123.7
AIFRS
2011A
3208.4
3273.7
216.4
-53.2
135.1
0.0
16.0
151.1
-39.1
112.0
-11.4
-19.3
-0.5
-119.9
-19.7
128.2
AIFRS
2012F
2784.7
2849.7
255.2
-75.1
160.2
0.0
10.5
170.7
-38.2
132.5
-19.7
112.8
-0.5
0.0
112.3
126.3
AIFRS
2013F
2915.8
2980.8
283.4
-85.7
178.8
0.0
10.0
188.8
-37.1
151.6
-20.0
131.6
-0.8
0.0
130.8
144.0
AIFRS
2014F
3024.7
3089.7
299.9
-83.5
198.5
0.0
9.5
208.0
-38.0
170.0
-23.4
146.6
-0.5
0.0
146.1
158.7
Regional sales revenue

Australia & New Zealand
Americas
Middle East & Asia
2010A
67%
31%
2%
2011A
68%
29%
3%
2012F
75%
23%
2%
2013F
72%
26%
2%
2014F
92%
5%
2%
Regional EBITA
Australia & New Zealand
Americas
Middle East & Asia
2010A
67%
30%
3%
2011A
69%
29%
2%
2012F
80%
18%
2%
2013F
77%
21%
2%
2014F
90%
8%
2%
Cash flow statement

EBITDA
Taxes paid
Capex (2)
Incr/(decr) in debt
Equity FCF (1+2+4)
2010A
192.8
44.8
-23.8
10.6
0.6
225.0
-36.7
-53.7
0.0
-90.3
0.0
-71.7
-46.5
0.0
-1.0
-119.2
-0.8
14.7
188.4
2011A
216.4
-49.7
-34.0
-28.3
-22.2
82.2
-73.1
-289.3
0.0
-362.4
363.4
142.1
-65.1
0.0
0.0
440.4
-7.2
153.0
9.1
2012F
255.2
-32.7
-38.2
-12.6
-1.2
170.4
-197.9
98.8
0.0
-99.1
-61.4
-8.6
-76.7
0.0
0.0
-146.7
0.0
-75.4
-27.4
2013F
283.4
-2.7
-37.1
-19.7
0.1
223.9
-75.1
0.0
0.0
-75.1
-26.8
-43.2
-75.1
0.0
0.0
-145.1
0.0
3.7
148.8
2014F
299.9
-4.6
-38.0
-20.5
1.2
238.0
-78.4
0.0
0.0
-78.4
0.0
-70.0
-82.0
0.0
0.0
-152.0
0.0
7.6
159.6
Balance sheet
Cash & deposits
Trade debtors
Inventory
Investments
Goodwill
Fixed assets
Other assets
Total assets
Trade payables
Provisions
Other liabilities
Total liabilities
Share capital
Other reserves
Retained earnings
Other equity
Total equity
Minority interest
2010A
112.7
486.6
58.5
268.5
443.5
231.2
174.1
75.7
1850.7
27.1
507.7
360.3
50.5
101.0
1046.6
808.0
-76.2
70.9
0.0
802.8
1.3
804.0
1850.7
2011A
265.7
510.9
82.7
187.8
566.3
178.2
309.4
166.7
2267.7
65.0
506.6
450.7
27.4
93.2
1142.9
1210.8
-73.6
-13.6
0.0
1123.6
1.2
1124.8
2267.7
2012F
190.3
453.9
83.5
187.8
546.4
178.2
432.2
168.7
2241.1
65.0
417.7
442.1
114.2
93.2
1132.2
1156.5
-73.6
24.8
0.0
1107.7
1.2
1108.9
2241.1
2013F
194.0
472.4
87.5
187.8
527.5
178.2
421.6
168.7
2237.7
65.0
437.4
398.9
110.0
93.2
1104.5
1129.7
-73.6
77.1
0.0
1133.2
0.0
1133.2
2237.7
2014F
201.6
490.0
90.7
0.0
509.6
178.2
416.5
356.5
2243.2
65.0
453.7
328.9
111.5
93.2
1052.3
1129.7
-73.6
134.8
0.0
1190.8
0.0
1190.8
2243.2
Closing price (A$)

Valuation metrics
Rf
Rm-Rf
Beta
Equity (E/EV)
Debt (D/EV)
Interest rate
Tax rate (t)
WACC
Price target (A$)
1.97
DCF/SOTP/PER
5.25%
6.00%
1.32
13.1%
70.0%
30.0%
6.25%
30.0%
10.5%
Val'n (A$)
10-year rate
Margin
Kd
Ke
NPV cash flow (A$m)
Net debt (A$m)
Investments (A$m)
Equity mkt value (A$m)
DCF valuation (A$)
2.13
$
2.24
5.25%
1.0%
6.25%
13.1%
1719.6
1.2
316.8
187.8
1589.5
539.0
2.95
Multiples
EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/EBIT (x)
2011A
1333.0
0.4
6.2
8.2
7.6
1.1
2012F
1399.7
0.5
5.5
7.8
8.4
1.2
2013F
1352.9
0.5
4.8
6.8
6.9
1.0
2014F
1275.3
0.4
4.3
5.9
6.3
0.9
At target price
EV/EBITDA (x)
2011A
6.6
8.2
2012F
5.8
9.1
2013F
5.1
7.5
2014F
4.5
6.8

UGL Ltd
EV/EBITDA
Year to 30 Jun
EV/EBIT
PE
PEG
Downer EDI
EV/EBITDA
Year to 30 Jun
EV/EBIT
PE
PEG
2012F
6.0
7.1
10.9
2.1
3.0
5.1
6.2
1.8
2013F
5.3
6.2
9.4
1.8
2.7
4.5
5.3
1.5
2014F
4.8
5.5
8.3
1.6
2.2
3.5
4.4
1.3
Per share data

No. shares
EPS (cps)
Dividend yield (%)
2011A
549.7
-4.0
26.0
14.0
58.9
7.1
2012F
519.0
20.8
23.4
14.0
58.6
7.1
2013F
505.6
25.8
28.4
15.5
54.5
7.9
2014F
505.6
28.9
31.4
17.5
55.8
8.9
Growth ratios
Sales growth
EBITDA growth
EBITA growth
Divisional PBT growth
Middle East & Asia
#REF!
EBIT growth
NPAT growth
2011A
1.8%
1.2%
12.2%
11.2%
2012F
-13.2%
-15.5%
17.9%
10.4%
2013F
4.7%
4.1%
11.1%
9.8%
2014F
3.7%
3.5%
5.8%
9.5%
-20.0%
#REF!
11.2%
n/a
3.6%
-13.0%
-22.1%
#REF!
10.4%
-1.5%
-1.5%
-10.0%
9.3%
#REF!
9.8%
16.4%
14.1%
21.1%
-100.0%
#REF!
9.5%
11.7%
10.2%
10.6%
Asset turnover (%)
EBITDA margin (%)
EBIT margin (%)
Net debt (A$m)
Net debt/equity (%)
ROIC (%)
2011A
39.0
6.7
4.7
3.9
11.0
250.0
22.2
3.9
10.1
2012F
30.9
9.2
6.1
4.6
11.6
316.8
28.6
4.5
9.0
2013F
32.6
9.7
6.5
4.3
11.1
269.9
23.8
5.1
9.0
2014F
33.8
9.9
6.9
4.8
12.1
192.3
16.2
5.5
10.0
Internal liquidity
Current ratio (x)
2011A
1.5
6.4
5.9
2012F
1.5
5.8
5.5
2013F
1.5
6.3
6.2
2014F
1.5
6.3
6.1
15
Equity | Australia | Consumer Durables
5 October 2011
Billabong International
Hold
The band-aid rule
Target price
Further devaluation of the AUD will see BBG's US-denominated debt expand. By
our calculations a 90c AUD/USD will result in BBG's net debt/EBITDA breaking
3x, where we expect its banking covenant to sit. With a worsening global
backdrop, a dilutive capital raising now may be the best outcome for investors.
A$3.65 (from A$4.25)

Price
A$3.29
Short term (0-60 days)
n/a
Key forecasts
Price performance
(1M)
(3M)
(12M)
Price (A$)
3.49
6.02
8.19
Absolute (%)
-5.7
-45.3
-59.8
3.3
-34.9
-52.0
Rel market (%)

Rel sector (%)
Oct 08
14
7.1
Oct 09
-31.8
-53.6
Oct 10
12
10
FY10A
FY11A
FY12F
FY13F
FY14F
EBITDA (A$m)
253.3
191.9
215.4
235.7
264.9
145.9
118.0
111.7
124.6
129.8
145.9
118.0
111.7
124.6
129.8
50.57
Normalised EPS (c)
57.19
46.26
43.69
48.63
-9.42
-19.1
-5.56
11.30
3.98
36.00
29.00
29.00
31.00
32.00
Dividend yield (%)
10.90
8.81
8.81
9.42
9.73
Normalised PE (x)
5.75
7.11
7.53
6.76
6.51
EV/EBITDA (x)
5.09
6.82
6.22
5.87
4.95
Price/net oper. CF (x)
4.48
34.50
8.81
9.02
4.57
10.90
6.30
7.23
7.70
8.36
ROIC (%)
1. Pre non-recurring items and post preference dividends

Accounting standard: IFRS
6
4
2
BBG.AX
S&P/ASX200
Market capitalisation
A$839.58m (US$790.04m)
AUD devaluation threatens debt covenants

In our view, the threat of a global recession is concerning for Billabong. While underlying
earnings (constant currency) in the Americas and Europe may come under pressure, the
immediate risk is a debt covenant breach, in our view.
Average (12M) daily turnover
A$10.68m (US$10.99m)
Risk of a covenant breach at 90c AUD/USD
Sector: BBG AP Hsehold & Textiles

Part of: ASX/S&P 100
RIC: BBG.AX, BBG AU
Priced A$3.29 at close 4 Oct 2011.
Source: Bloomberg
In terms of BBGs debt cover ratio (net debt/EBITDA) rapid currency swings can have a
notable impact as 80% of borrowings are USD denominated. For the purposes of this ratio,
net debt is converted at the spot rate while EBITDA is measured on a rolling 12-month
historical basis, therefore creating a timing issue if currency depreciation is rapid. By our
calculations, BBG will breach its net cover ratio with a near-term drop to 90c AUD/USD.
Acquisition earn-outs mean debt metrics will remain stretched through FY14F
Given A$250m of earn-outs are payable over the next two years, debt covenants will remain
under pressure. We calculate a raising of A$200m at A$2.50 per share would dilute existing
equity by about 14%, but provide sufficient clearance for a stock re-rating. Given wholesale
funding markets are tightening further, we believe it may be best for BBG to take action now.
Analysts
Daniel Broeren
Investment view
RBS Equities (Australia) Limited, ABN

84 002 768 701, AFS Licence 240530
Level 29, RBS Tower, 88 Phillip Street,
We see long-term value in BBGs share price; however, the risk of a debt covenant breach
creates a somewhat binary outcome for shareholders. A decision to raise equity would likely
be a positive share price catalyst, while inactivity would likely see the share price continue to
flounder. The potential for corporate activity also looms as a potential catalyst; however, a
generally conservative approach to balance sheet management may also see this unfulfilled.
Until BBGs balance sheet concerns are addressed we see a re-rating as unlikely. We lower
our price target to A$3.65 (from A$4.25) applying a 15% discount to our fundamental
valuation, to reflect the ongoing risk of a covenant breach we see.
+61 2 8259 5381

daniel.broeren@rbs.com
Chris Cable
+61 2 8259 6722
chris.cable@rbs.com
17
AUD devaluation threatens debt covenants

Of listed retail stocks we cover, the threat of a global recessions is most concerning for Billabong.
While underlying earnings (constant currency) in the Americas and Europe may come under
pressure, the immediate risk, in our view, is a debt covenant breach as its USD-denominated debt
expands on translation.
Management stated at its result that the business was comfortably within covenant metrics at
June. Looking forward, it is important to recognise that FY11 was a particularly challenging year
as recent acquisitions add to fixed charges and debt levels without generating incremental
EBITDA. However, global economic conditions have since deteriorated and the AUD has moved
significantly against major currencies. In our view, debt covenants now look increasingly under
pressure.
Billabongs banking syndicate monitors two principle debt metrics, these being:
1) Debt cover ratio: net debt/EBITDA
2) Fixed charge cover ratio: (EBITDA+lease expense)/(net interest+lease expense)
Below we identify three scenarios where we believe covenants could be breached:

Scenario one: A material and rapid relative devaluation in the AUD could see the debt
coverage ratio breached. In BBGs case, net debt is impacted by FX movements, as 80% of
its borrowing is USD denominated and is converted at the spot rate for the purposes of
covenant calculation. EBITDA is measured on a rolling 12-month historical basis, which
therefore creates a timing issue, as a rapid depreciation in the AUD would result in net debt
expanding before offsetting translation benefits in EBITDA could be delivered. Below, we
show the sensitivity of the net cover ratio to a further decline in the AUD/USD. While BBG has
not disclosed its covenants, an analysis of comparable companies suggests that it could be in
the vicinity of 3x, thereby suggesting a breach with the AUD/USD dropping near 90c.
Chart 1 : Debt cover ratio (FY12) sensitivity to AUD/USD

(x)
3.4
3.2
Assumed debt covenant
3
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2
$0.85
(AUD/USD)
$0.90
$0.95
$1.00
$1.05
$1.10
Source: Company data, RBS estimates
Scenario two: All other factors kept equal, further deterioration in underlying EBITDA could
result in a breach of either the net cover ratio or the fixed charge cover ratio. A general
slowdown in customer demand may see a further contraction in wholesale orders and
increased losses from company owned retail. Customer default in Europe (Italy, Spain etc)
remains a real possibility.
Scenario three: While an unlikely scenario now, in our view, a meaningful and sustained
relative appreciation in the AUD would negatively impact reported EBITDA.
Billabong International | Investment View | 5 October 2011
18
Earn-outs mean covenant issues are likely to persist through FY14

Adding to underlying economic and currency issues, future acquisition earn-outs for BBG currently
total A$250m, with A$86m due for payment in FY12 followed by roughly A$80m payable in FY13.
Offsetting this to a small degree, lease expenses should reduce slightly following the closure of 65
poorly performing stores in FY11, improving EBITDA.
Below, we show BBGs two debt metrics (including historical and RBS forecasts); noting that
these charts assume constant currency. Even if global economic conditions stabilise, earn-outs
will likely see debt covenant ratios stay close to current levels for some time.
Chart 2 : Fixed charge cover ratio
Chart 3 : Debt cover ratio
(x)
3.0
9
8
(x)
7.89
2.44
2.5
7
5.69
2.22
2.23
FY12
FY13
2.0
4.94
5
1.5
3.37
1.22
3.63
2.46
2.69
2.94
0.98
1.0
0.84
0.79
0.86
0.5
1
0.0
0
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
Source: Company data, RBS forecasts [Fs on 12 and 13]
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
Source: Company data, BBS forecasts [Fs on 12 and 13]
A capital raising might be the best outcome for shareholders

Relative to 2008, banks appear to have improved capital positions and BBGs syndicate may look
to re-price debt if covenants are breached rather than recall funding. However, recent tightening of
wholesale funding flows means a capital raising is not out of the question. From an equity holders
perspective, if a raising is not enforced, and the stock continues to operate close to its covenants,
its PE discount will likely remain.
A decision to raise capital may in fact be the best outcome for investors. Below, we provide a
scenario analysis showing the likely dilution for a A$200m raising at a price between A$2.50 and
A$3.50.
Table 1 : Capital raising scenario
Size of raising (A$m)
200
200
200
A$2.50
A$3.00
A$3.50
255.2
255.2
255.2
80.0
66.7
57.1
31.35%
26.12%
22.39%
Revised no. of shares (m)
335.2
321.9
312.3
NPAT (FY12) A$m
Assumed share price

Current Shares on issue (m)
Shares issued (m)
Percentage of shares issued
111.7
111.7
111.7
Add interest saving A$m
14.5
14.5
14.5
Revised NPAT (FY12) A$m
126
126
126
EPS A$
43.8
43.8
43.8
Revised EPS A$
37.7
39.2
40.4
-14.0%
-10.4%
-7.7%
EPS Impact
Source: RBS estimates
19
Investment view
We see long-term value in the share price; however, the risk of a debt covenant breach creates
something of a binary outcome for shareholders. A decision to raise equity may, in fact, be a
positive share price catalyst, while inactivity in addressing balance sheet issues will likely see the
share price continue to flounder. The potential for corporate activity also looms as a catalyst;
however, a generally more conservative approach to balance sheet management may also see
this unfulfilled. Until balance sheet concerns are addressed, we see a material re-rating as
unlikely and lower our price target to A$3.65 (from A$4.25) as we apply a 15% discount to our
fundamental valuation to reflect the ongoing risk of a covenant breach we see.
Table 2 : Valuation summary
Valuation measure
Industrials multiple (x)
Target multiple (x)
PER FY12F
14.2
9.2
Fair value (A$)

4.03
EV/EBIT FY12F
11.6
7.5
3.12
DCF
5.70
Average
4.25
20
BBG financial summary
Billabong
Price target (A$)

Income statement
Divisional sales
Total revenue
EBITDA
Depreciation
EBITA
Amortisation/impairment
EBIT
Pre-tax profit
Income tax expense
After-tax profit
NPAT post abnormals
AIFRS
2009A
1669.1
1671.1
284.8
-38.1
246.7
0.0
246.7
246.7
-31.2
215.5
-55.3
160.2
150.7
AIFRS
2010A
1482.3
1486.8
253.3
-35.6
217.7
0.0
217.7
217.7
-14.7
203.0
-57.9
145.1
145.9
AIFRS
2011F
1683.3
1687.2
191.9
-41.9
149.9
0.0
149.9
149.9
-23.0
126.9
-8.9
118.0
118.0
AIFRS
2012F
1699.7
1705.9
215.4
-43.5
171.9
0.0
171.9
171.9
-26.8
145.1
-33.4
111.7
111.7
AIFRS
2013F
1746.2
1753.5
235.7
-45.4
190.3
0.0
190.3
190.3
-21.9
168.4
-43.8
124.6
124.6
Closing price (A$)

Valuation metrics
Rf
Rm-Rf
Beta
Equity (E/EV)
Debt (D/EV)
Interest rate
Tax rate (t)
WACC
3.29
Divisional sales revenue

Australasia
Europe
North America
Other
2009A
444.3
388.0
836.8
0.0
2010A
425.7
344.0
712.6
0.0
2011F
501.9
337.6
843.7
0.0
2012F
513.4
331.8
852.3
2.1
2013F
539.1
327.3
877.6
2.2
Divisional EBIT
Australasia
Europe
North America
Other
2009A
89.4
72.2
82.9
2.2
2010A
78.9
61.5
75.2
2.2
2011F
43.0
42.3
62.5
2.2
2012F
57.4
37.5
74.4
2.2
2013F
67.6
38.1
81.8
2.9
Multiples
EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/EBIT (x)
2010A
1291.9
0.9
5.1
5.9
5.8
0.7
2011F
1310.4
0.8
6.8
8.7
7.1
0.9
2012F
1341.7
0.8
6.2
7.8
7.6
0.9
2013F
1385.7
0.8
5.9
7.3
6.8
0.8
At target price
EV/EBITDA (x)
2010A
6.1
7.4
2011F
8.1
9.2
2012F
7.4
9.7
2013F
6.9
8.7
Cash flow statement

EBITDA
Taxes paid
Capex (2)
Incr/(decr) in debt
Equity FCF (1+2)
2009A
284.8
-62.4
-34.4
-50.9
38.5
175.6
-65.3
-150.0
0.0
-215.2
316.9
32.3
-92.2
-7.2
249.9
-12.3
197.9
110.4
2010A
253.3
57.6
-19.4
-49.2
-55.2
187.2
-52.8
-53.0
0.0
-105.8
0.0
-110.5
-78.1
-3.5
-192.1
-12.3
-123.0
134.4
2011F
191.9
-55.8
-33.4
-44.7
-33.6
24.3
-42.7
-224.2
0.0
-266.9
0.0
284.3
-79.0
-4.4
201.0
-12.3
-54.0
-18.4
2012F
215.4
-70.9
-26.8
-22.2
0.0
95.5
-51.0
0.0
5.8
-45.2
0.0
32.7
-71.6
6.8
-32.1
0.0
18.2
44.5
2013F
235.7
-83.2
-21.9
-37.1
0.0
93.4
-52.4
-70.0
-4.0
-126.4
0.0
48.0
-77.2
1.3
-27.9
0.0
-60.9
41.0

Pacific Brands
EV/EBITDA
Year to 30 Jun
EV/EBIT
PE
PEG
David Jones
EV/EBITDA
Year to 31 Jul
EV/EBIT
PE
PEG
2011F
4.0
4.4
5.8
1.9
5.6
6.7
9.2
1.1
2012F
4.5
5.0
6.9
2.3
6.3
7.7
10.5
1.3
2013F
3.9
4.2
5.7
1.9
5.9
7.2
9.9
1.2
Per share data

No. shares
EPS (cps)
Dividend yield (%)
2010A
255.2
57.2
57.2
36.0
63.0
10.9
2011F
255.2
46.3
46.3
29.0
62.7
8.8
2012F
255.7
43.7
43.7
29.0
66.4
8.8
2013F
256.2
48.6
48.6
31.0
63.7
9.4
Balance sheet
Cash & deposits
Trade debtors
Inventory
Goodwill
Fixed assets
Other assets
Total assets
Trade payables
Other liabilities
Total liabilities
Share capital
Retained earnings
Other equity
Total equity
Minority interest
2009A
332.9
405.2
253.7
360.7
638.8
161.8
67.4
2220.5
10.0
277.9
547.9
207.7
1043.6
659.0
575.2
-57.3
1176.9
0.0
1176.9
2220.5
2010A
208.7
398.4
240.4
485.3
633.0
170.5
74.0
2210.3
20.5
315.5
404.9
251.7
992.7
671.8
630.3
-85.3
1216.8
0.8
1217.6
2210.3
2011F
144.9
374.4
348.7
0.0
1268.5
184.9
98.7
2420.0
15.3
344.0
597.9
265.9
1223.1
678.9
663.3
-148.8
1193.5
3.4
1196.8
2420.0
2012F
146.3
402.9
303.6
0.0
1268.5
192.3
89.2
2402.8
18.8
256.5
627.1
269.1
1171.5
674.0
703.4
-148.8
1228.6
2.7
1231.3
2402.8
2013F
150.3
396.7
332.6
0.0
1268.5
199.3
95.8
2443.2
17.4
196.1
676.5
273.0
1162.9
675.3
751.1
-148.8
1277.7
2.6
1280.3
2443.2
Growth ratios
Sales growth
EBITDA growth
EBITA growth
Divisional EBIT growth
Australasia
Europe
North America
Other
EBIT growth
NPAT growth
Pre-goodwill EPS growth
2010A
-11.2%
-11.2%
-11.1%
-11.7%
2011F
13.6%
21.3%
-24.3%
-31.1%
2012F
1.0%
-0.5%
12.3%
14.6%
2013F
2.7%
1.8%
9.4%
10.7%
-11.7%
-14.8%
-9.3%
-1.0%
-11.7%
-3.2%
-8.9%
-9.4%
-9.4%
-45.5%
-31.3%
-16.9%
2.0%
-31.1%
-19.1%
-19.1%
-19.1%
-19.1%
33.3%
-11.1%
19.1%
-1.0%
14.6%
-5.4%
-5.4%
-5.6%
-5.6%
17.8%
1.4%
10.0%
31.8%
10.7%
11.5%
11.5%
11.3%
11.3%
Asset turnover (%)
EBITDA margin (%)
EBIT margin (%)
Net debt (A$m)
Net debt/equity (%)
ROIC (%)
2010A
16.7
17.1
14.7
9.8
17.9
216.7
17.8
14.8
10.9
2011F
18.2
11.4
8.9
7.0
12.5
468.3
39.1
6.5
6.3
2012F
17.6
12.7
10.1
6.6
14.0
499.6
40.6
6.4
7.2
2013F
18.0
13.5
10.9
7.1
14.9
543.6
42.5
8.7
7.7
Internal liquidity
Current ratio (x)
2010A
2.5
3.7
4.1
2011F
2.3
4.4
4.5
2012F
3.0
4.4
4.9
2013F
3.8
4.4
6.7
Blended Valuation
5.25%
6.00%
1.02
11.4%
70.0%
30.0%
7.25%
30.0%
9.5%
Val'n (A$)
10-year rate
Margin
Kd
Ke
NPV cash flow (A$m)
Net debt (A$m)
Investments (A$m)
DCF valuation (A$)
3.65
$
4.25
5.25%
2.0%
7.25%
11.4%
2130.4
3.4
468.3
0.0
1658.7
255.2
6.50
21
Equity | Europe
4 October 2011
Produced by: The Royal Bank of Scotland N.V.
Global Views
The possible next leg of a US Treasury rally
European concerns continue to dominate the headlines and asset price movements, as
better than expected US ISM data was brushed aside in favour of flight-to-quality buying.
Indeed, it feels more 2008 than ever out there, with asset concerns (government bonds this
time, equities, etc) feeding into banking concerns where a lot of individual names, rightly or
wrongly, are being discussed.
One avenue of crisis we are watching closely here but that has not gotten a lot of colour is
the potential unwind of the EM investment trade that has been popular over the last few
years.
The argument had been that with the developed world stuck in a sub-par post-subprime
recovery process (and rates low for longer), emerging markets offered superior growth and
higher rates of return.
That works until capital flies home, and I don't mean to infer it is happening but we are on
alert for it as it may signal further global infection from the European crisis. The follow on will
be (even) lower global growth.
More specific to the Treasury market, if you are taking profits or seeking capital preservation
by unwinding those investments, where will you put your money to hide? Cash, or
government bonds.
There are not as many sovereigns deemed as safe government bonds as there used to be,
so this may signal the next leg of the Treasury market rally.
Not that US Treasuries need much more support than they already getting from flight to
quality sparked by Europe and risk assets, but as we've seen in past crisis when things get
hairy correlations for all assets go to -1 or +1.
Risk on or risk off, but exponential even compared to the price action of late. Watch out. RBS
Ahead
US factory orders, Aug (13:30 GMT): Factory orders may have fallen by about 0.6% in
August. Durable goods orders inched down by 0.1% in August, as weakness in autos offset
gains in the aircraft sector. However, orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft
increased by 1.1%, pointing to continued growth in business investment in the third quarter.
In contrast, nondurables goods orders may have tumbled by about 0.9% in August, due
largely to a drop in the petroleum and coal series. Crude oil prices tumbled in August amidst
fears of a sharp slowdown in global growth, which likely depressed the petroleum series.
Meanwhile, nondurable goods orders excluding petroleum may have inched up by 0.3%.
Analysts
Equity Research
250 Bishopsgate, London, EC2M 4AA,
United Kingdom
www.research.rbsm.com
23
Equity | Global
5 October 2011
Produced by: The Royal Bank of Scotland N.V.
Global Action Pack

Wednesday 5 October 2011
Table 1 : This mornings research
Subject
Title
No of pages
European Research
Aerospace & Defence Europe
ARM
ASML
Automobiles & Parts Europe
Automobiles & Parts Europe
Babcock International*
Dialog Semiconductor
Eni
Exploration & Production United Kingdom
Jardine Lloyd Thompson
PostNL
Reed Elsevier plc
Rentokil Initial
STMicroelectronics
Tech Hardware & Equip Europe
Transportation Services Denmark
>A.P. Mller Maersk
>DSV
>Kuehne + Nagel
>Panalpina
UBS
Wolseley
Middle-air, Orcs and all

3Q results preview
3Q results preview
Flash: US auto sales: September update
Flash: Brazil auto sales: September update
Heading back to 10 knots?
PMIC bright spots
Flash: Highlighting a solid E&P performance
Flash: UK E&P news - HOIL,PCI,SMDR,TLW
On track and not expensive
Dear John (Part II)
Flash: Legal channel checks supportive
Downgrade to Sell
Flash: Missed opportunity
Flash: Europe - Apple intros the iPhone 4S
Sink or swim?
Through the looking glass
Cash converter
Always be prepared
Better positioned
Flash: Yet another hole in the P&L
Flash: FY11 results
44
5
5
4
3
20
11
5
4
5
9
5
14
5
4
32
9
6
6
6
5
5
*RBS Hoare Govett Ltd is broker to this company.

Source: RBS
Analyst
RBS European Research
250 Bishopsgate, London, EC2M 4AA,
United Kingdom
25
Global Action Pack summaries

Table 2 : Europe Upgrades/downgrades and initiations
Company
A.P. Mller - Maersk
Ticker
MAERSKB DC
Last Actual
Year End
FY1
EPS new
FY2
FY3
FY1
EPS old
FY2
FY3
Change (%)
Dec-10
2819
3180
3497
4231
5267
5662
FY1
FY2
Curr
FY3
Price Target
New
Old
-33.4 -39.6 -38.2 DKr 46000 60500
Recom
Chg (%) New Old

-24.0
Buy Buy
Buy Buy
Reason for EPS Change: lower volume growth, lower freight rates
ASML
ASML NA
Dec-10
3.12
1.85
3.43
3.03
1.77
3.28
2.9
4.2
4.6
30.50 30.50
n/a
26.4
-3.1
-4.4
13.00 13.00
n/a Hold Hold
Reason for EPS Change: lower share count reflecting ongoing share buyback
Dialog Semiconductor DLG GY
Dec-10
0.89
1.31
1.49
0.70
1.35
1.56
Reason for EPS Change: Raised 3Q11 guidance and gross margin update from analyst meeting
DSV
DSV DC
Dec-10
7.71
8.32
8.94
7.47
8.69
9.70
3.2
-4.3
-7.8 DKr 120.00125.00
6.43
7.01
-2.5 -11.7 -15.7 SFr 110.00120.00
6.60
7.15
-5.0 -10.3
0.69
0.70
-4.0
Buy Buy
Reason for EPS Change: Lower volume growth assumptions

Kuehne + Nagel
KNIN VX
Dec-10
5.44
5.68
5.91
5.58
-8.3 Hold Hold

Panalpina
PWTN SW
Dec-10
5.35
5.92
6.66
5.63
-6.9 SFr 110.00128.00
-14.1
Buy Buy

PostNL
PNL NA
Dec-10
0.29
0.69
0.70
0.29
0.1
0.1
0.1
2.80
3.50
-20.0
Sell Sell
-0.9
-7.1
-7.4
0.63
0.97
-35.0
Sell Hold
Reason for EPS Change: Better 2Q results, but offset by lower TNTE numbers
Rentokil Initial
RTO LN
Dec-10
7.63
8.43
9.38
7.71
9.08 10.13
Reason for EPS Change: European recession in 4Q11 and 1Q12 leading to reduced revenues and profits
Global Action Pack | 5 October 2011
26
Europe
Aerospace & Defence - Europe - Middle-air, Orcs and all
Best we can tell, the economic world is still turning, perhaps more slowly. But the aerospace &
defence sector has yet to enjoy much recovery, so at worst we may just stand still. In the
meantime, we remain convinced that Rolls-Royce and EADS can crystallise significant
shareholder value over the next 12 months.
http://track.sumnet.com/home/00000275/T036373/aer_nce_20103355.pdf
ARM (Buy, TP 7.00) - 3Q results preview
Despite potentially softer 2H royalty revenues, we believe licensing revenues will remain robust in
any one- to three-quarter downturn. Against this backdrop, we see ARM as a relatively defensive
name given the quality of the franchise, solid balance sheet and strong cash generation. We
reiterate Buy.
http://track.sumnet.com/home/00000275/T036366/arm_20103346.pdf
ASML (Buy, TP 30.50) - 3Q results preview
The key question for us going into results is whether 3Q represents a trough in bookings. DRAM
prices are stabilising in September and August semi sales were seasonally weak but not
disastrous, suggesting we could be nearing the trough of the cycle. Trading at trough P/B
multiples, we consider the shares attractive.
http://track.sumnet.com/home/00000275/T036312/asml_10083805.pdf
Automobiles & Parts - Europe - US auto sales: September update
US auto sales were up 9.9% yoy in September despite Toyota and Honda sales being down
17% and 8% yoy due to the impact of the Japan crisis. VW sales were up 31% yoy, BMW up 11%
and Daimler up 13%. We see all three gaining from the US auto market recovery.
http://track.sumnet.com/home/00000275/T0362BE/aut_rts_20103324.pdf
Automobiles & Parts - Europe - Brazil auto sales: September update
Brazilian vehicle sales were up 1.5% yoy in September, with passenger car sales down 3%, LCV
up 17% yoy, and truck sales up 13% yoy. On a 3-month average basis, car sales were down 2%
yoy, LCV sales were up 16% yoy and truck sales were up 14% yoy.
http://track.sumnet.com/home/00000275/T0362B3/aut_rts_10083786.pdf
Babcock International (Buy, TP 7.80) - Heading back to 10 knots?
With over a quarter of the record bid pipeline likely to be awarded in first nine months of 2012,
this will be a critical period for Babcock; however, we believe consensus organic revenue
projections are prudently cast. After assessing its main contract with the MoD, we are also
comfortable regarding margin outlook.
http://track.sumnet.com/home/00000275/T036376/bab_nal_20103354.pdf
Dialog Semiconductor (Hold, TP 13.00) - PMIC bright spots
In our view, power management remains the growth driver in the short to mid-term following last
week's analysts meeting. While PM-OLED and home automation both offer promise, the pace of
adoption is unclear at this stage. We reiterate our rating Hold and 13 target price.
http://track.sumnet.com/home/00000275/T036299/dia_tor_20103320.pdf
Eni (Buy, TP 20.50) - Highlighting a solid E&P performance
Eni will give an update on its E&P activities on 6 October. Its an opportunity for Eni to remind
investors that its upstream unit enjoys robust returns, in contrast to a negative scenario that
appears to be currently discounted by the shares.
http://track.sumnet.com/home/00000275/T036346/eni_20103345.pdf
Exploration & Production - United Kingdom - UK E&P news - HOIL,PCI,SMDR,TLW
Heritage's Libya foothold could be a source of material LT growth, although probably too early
stage to get overly excited about. Industry news flow continues to support our positive stance on
both Tullow and Salamander while PCI makes a sold hire for its Algeria operations.
http://track.sumnet.com/home/00000275/T0362C2/exp_ion_20103323.pdf
Jardine Lloyd Thompson (Hold, TP 7.00) - On track and not expensive
The 1H results underpin our FY forecasts and we see JLT as an attractive insurance-market play
for those concerned about underwriting volatility. We think it is some way off hitting an organic
growth ceiling and see its Latin America/Asia Pacific platforms as providing downside protection.
Stay at Hold.
http://track.sumnet.com/home/00000275/T036331/jar_son_10083816.pdf
PostNL (Sell, TP 2.80) - Dear John (Part II)
Dear John, I think you've got serious problems. The reasons I left are the reasons I stay away.
You promised me so much, but I still don't think you can deliver. You need to work through your
issues before we can talk. Let me explain.
http://track.sumnet.com/home/00000275/T036335/pos_tnl_10083817.pdf
27
Reed Elsevier plc (Buy, TP 6.75) - Legal channel checks supportive

In recent weeks we've interviewed a number of law firm librarians to get a sense of the
competitive dynamics in the legal publishing market. This channel check was largely supportive
for Reed, with Lexis seemingly not losing share to West, while Bloomberg remains a niche player
http://track.sumnet.com/home/00000275/T03627F/ree_plc_20103311.pdf
Rentokil Initial (Sell, TP 0.63) - Downgrade to Sell
RBS hosted a salesdesk meeting with Rentokil management. We fear the City Link recovery is
behind schedule and, with an uncertain outlook across other divisions, we reduce our FY12 PBT
forecast 7% and downgrade to Sell.
http://track.sumnet.com/home/00000275/T03627B/ren_ial_20103310.pdf
STMicroelectronics (Buy, TP 6.30) - Missed opportunity
ST-Ericsson will not supply the HSPA+ modem in the Samsung Galaxy S II shipping to AT&T,
relying instead on Intel's. While we had not included this contract in our model, we are
disappointed that ST-E did not win this socket given its leadership in HSPA+ modems.
http://track.sumnet.com/home/00000275/T03630E/stm_ics_20103337.pdf
Tech Hardware & Equip - Europe - Apple intros the iPhone 4S
Even though Apple announced only one new iPhone yesterday, it cut the price of its existing
products (iPhone 3GS and iPhone4) substantially, which could drive adoption in EMs. We see
ARM, IMG, ASML and DLG as main iPhone beneficiaries.
http://track.sumnet.com/home/00000275/T036342/tec_uip_10083832.pdf
Transportation Services - Denmark - Sink or swim?
Container rates are already unsustainably low on certain routes with carriers losing money right,
left and centre. A downturn could prompt a more rapid exit of excess capacity restoring rates to
profitable levels. This would be good for structural winners such as Maersk, in our view.
http://track.sumnet.com/home/00000275/T03636A/tra_ces_20103347.pdf
> A.P. Mller - Maersk (Buy, TP DKr46000.00) - Through the looking glass
Freight rates on certain trade lanes are now unsustainably low, in our view. Falling volumes
globally would be good for Maersk and could prompt a faster exit of capacity and boost to rates
than could otherwise be expected. We see Maersk as a structural winner, with a strong enough
balance sheet to weather the storm.
http://track.sumnet.com/home/00000275/T03636B/a_p_rsk_20103351.pdf
> DSV (Buy, TP DKr120.00) - Cash converter
Global growth is slowing and therefore so will DSV's, in our opinion. DSV's balance sheet, as it
now stands, should be robust enough to weather any impending downturn. Acquisition risk
remains. Maintain Buy; new DKr120 TP.
http://track.sumnet.com/home/00000275/T03636C/dsv_20103352.pdf
> Kuehne + Nagel (Hold, TP SFr110.00) - Always be prepared
We are lowering our FY12-13 growth forecasts to reflect the tougher economic backdrop. KNIN is
highly exposed to seafreight, where rates are already unsustainably low. We believe any fall in
volumes could precipitate a supply side contraction, causing margin squeeze for forwarders.
http://track.sumnet.com/home/00000275/T03636D/kue_gel_20103353.pdf
> Panalpina (Buy, TP SFr110.00) - Better positioned
We are cutting our FY12-13 growth estimates to relect the tougher economic backdrop. We
believe the stock already reflects a 10% volume fall, but see the company as better positioned
this time round going into a downturn.
http://track.sumnet.com/home/00000275/T03636E/pan_ina_20103349.pdf
UBS (Hold, TP SFr14.50) - Yet another hole in the P&L
Today's release of further detail on 3Q results seems to imply a weak underlying performance,
most likely in the Investment Bank, and the sale of treasury investments comes at the expense of
lower gross margins going forward, we believe.
http://track.sumnet.com/home/00000275/T0362E2/ubs_20103329.pdf
Wolseley (Buy, TP 24.20) - FY11 results
Full year results at the upper end of forecasts, debt higher than our forecast but all explained by
the unwinding of one off factors within group net debt. Driving outperformance and cost
streamlining has to remain the critical priorities. Buy
http://track.sumnet.com/home/00000275/T0362B7/wol_ley_10083787.pdf
Note: Links to research are valid for 30 days from the date of publication
28
RBS Top 100 Earnings Forecasts

5 October 2011
ASX code Company name
Market
cap
(A$m)
Last
year
end
Price
(A$)
Target FV (A$)
Up/
price
down
(A$)
Rec
12m
YTD - YTD -Rel.

Abs.
NPAT pre abnormals (A$m)
Actual
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
Earnings
Quality*
EPS pre goodwill (c)
EPS ANALYSIS
IBES 3m
EPS growth
EPS (pre goodwill)
revisions
DIVIDEND ANALYSIS
Div yield
DPS (c)
EPS
CAGR
Div
frank
(%)
PE (x)
(pre goodwill)
PEG
VALUATION
PE rel
(pre goodwill)
EV/
EV / P/ NTA
EBIT (x) EBITDA (x)
B/SHEET ANALYSIS
ROE ND/EBITDA Gearing (Tier 1 Analyst
ratio for
banks)
Actual
Actual
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
12m fwd
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
3 yr
Actual
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Banks
ANZ
BEN
BOQ
CBA
NAB
WBC
ANZ Banking Group

Bendigo & Adelaide Ban
Bank of Queensland
Commonwealth Bank
National Australia Bank
Westpac Banking Corp
49,773
2,904
1,582
67,815
47,255
59,605
Sep 10
Jun 11
Aug 10
Jun 11
Sep 10
Sep 10
19.17
8.12
7.02
43.51
21.78
19.81
23.55
9.32
12.95
49.69
29.08
22.73
26.17
9.81
12.95
58.46
32.31
26.74
23%
15%
84%
14%
34%
15%
Buy
Hold
Buy
Hold
Buy
Hold
-18%
-18%
-32%
-14%
-8%
-11%
-1%
-1%
-15%
3%
9%
6%
5,122.0
336.2
189.2
6,793.0
4,581.0
5,879.0
5,624.8
337.2
165.1
7,386.1
5,506.3
6,352.3
6,038.7
364.7
254.8
7,930.4
6,104.4
6,668.9
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
198.4
87.0
83.9
420.7
214.8
192.1
212.1
85.7
71.5
450.3
251.6
204.5
222.0
90.5
105.9
475.5
270.6
211.7
-2.7%
-1.9%
-2.0%
-2.2%
-1.2%
-2.8%
7%
-2%
-15%
7%
17%
6%
5%
6%
48%
6%
8%
3%
5%
2%
12%
6%
10%
5%
126.0
60.0
52.0
320.0
152.0
139.0
139.0
61.0
54.5
343.0
170.0
152.0
145.0
63.0
73.0
363.0
176.0
156.0
7.3%
7.5%
7.8%
7.9%
7.8%
7.7%
100
100
100
100
100
100
9.0
9.5
9.8
9.7
8.7
9.7
8.6
9.0
6.6
9.2
8.0
9.4
1.8
4.5
0.8
1.6
0.8
1.9
0.78
0.96
0.85
0.97
0.75
0.84
0.87
0.98
0.67
1.00
0.81
0.94
6.3
5.8
6.5
6.6
5.9
6.6
5.4
5.3
3.6
5.9
4.8
5.9
1.8
1.4
1.0
2.5
1.6
2.1
16.2%
8.3%
7.2%
19.2%
15.7%
16.1%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
10.9%
8.4%
8.3%
10.6%
9.6%
9.9%
Andrew Lyons
John Buonaccorsi
John Buonaccorsi
Andrew Lyons
Andrew Lyons
Andrew Lyons
4,870
8,241
Sep 10
Sep 10
2.99
22.76
4.82
26.63
4.82
26.63
61%
17%
Buy
Hold
-24%
-9%
-7%
9%
442.8
659.6
548.8
621.7
554.4
716.6
0.9
0.9
27.3
175.0
33.7
171.4
34.0
197.3
-0.1%
-1.2%
23%
-2%
1%
15%
11%
8%
7.8
95.0
10.1
91.0
10.2
95.0
3.4%
4.0%
0
49
8.9
13.3
8.8
11.5
0.8
1.7
0.77
1.15
0.89
1.16
7.5
9.6
6.2
7.8
4.9
6.0
14.5%
17.0%
1.2
1.1
28.7% Belinda Moore

35.8% Andrew Scott
9,128
1,257
1,759
1,083
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
6.17
2.93
5.22
1.97
7.01
5.01
7.40
2.13
7.01
5.01
7.40
2.23
14%
71%
42%
8%
Hold
Buy
Buy
Hold
-13%
-34%
-21%
-41%
4%
-17%
-4%
-24%
532.1
155.9
104.6
128.2
600.4
190.1
132.2
127.9
718.4
221.3
153.9
148.5
1.0
0.6
1.0
0.5
36.6
42.6
31.0
26.0
40.2
44.3
39.2
23.3
48.2
51.5
45.6
27.0
-1.7%
-5.9%
-3.5%
-18.6%
10%
4%
26%
-11%
20%
16%
16%
16%
16%
14%
18%
5%
25.9
0.0
14.3
14.0
30.0
21.0
21.6
14.0
34.0
27.0
27.4
15.5
5.2%
7.2%
4.1%
7.1%
20
0
100
100
13.5
6.6
13.3
8.5
11.0
5.7
11.4
7.3
0.8
0.5
0.7
1.9
1.36
0.67
1.34
0.85
1.19
0.62
1.25
0.79
11.0
5.3
11.2
7.4
7.1
3.2
9.3
5.2
13.6
1.3
2.4
25.0%
12.7%
29.1%
11.7%
2.0
1.1
0.9
1.0
120.8%
40.6%
36.9%
21.7%
Mark Williams
Andrew Hodge
Fraser McLeish
Andrew Hodge
2,436
5,492
1,795
2,901
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
3.54
7.54
2.48
2.20
4.30
9.00
3.00
2.20
4.30
9.00
3.00
2.44
21%
19%
21%
0%
Hold
Buy
Hold
Hold
-9%
-20%
-15%
9%
-3%
3%
184.3
335.9
486.3
279.5
135.6
386.9
364.5
329.8
179.9
422.4
222.7
197.4
1.5
0.9
1.0
1.0
26.8
44.3
74.1
21.5
19.7
52.6
51.6
25.0
25.8
58.0
30.6
15.0
5.6%
3.3%
-7.0%
-1.6%
-26%
19%
-30%
16%
31%
10%
-41%
-40%
2%
15%
-27%
-8%
0.0
37.0
43.0
21.5
10.0
37.0
25.8
22.5
13.1
37.0
21.4
13.5
2.8%
4.9%
10.4%
10.2%
100
60
100
100
18.0
14.3
4.8
8.8
13.7
13.0
8.1
14.7
9.3
0.9
-0.2
-1.2
1.81
1.45
0.48
0.89
1.49
1.41
0.88
1.60
11.9
13.9
3.9
6.7
8.3
9.6
3.2
5.7
4.1
2.4
-
5.6%
12.1%
26.2%
12.8%
2.5
2.0
0.7
1.4
43.7%
45.4%
32.2%
36.8%
Michael Nolan
Michael Nolan
Michael Nolan
Michael Nolan
2,336
1,174
5,209
2,353
Jun 11
Mar 11
Jun 11
Mar 11
3.25
2.32
7.57
5.40
4.04
3.25
8.25
6.78
4.04
3.25
6.39
6.83
24%
40%
9%
26%
Hold
Buy
Hold
Buy
-33%
-54%
-1%
-20%
-15%
-37%
16%
-3%
173.5
90.2
275.2
123.4
203.1
100.3
347.0
126.3
275.3
127.8
455.0
165.0
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.8
24.0
17.8
42.7
28.2
28.1
19.8
50.4
29.7
38.0
25.3
66.1
39.9
-13.5%
-23.9%
-8.9%
-1.0%
17%
11%
18%
5%
35%
27%
31%
34%
29%
23%
24%
23%
14.5
41.7
33.0
0.0
16.0
15.7
35.0
6.0
17.0
19.0
37.0
12.0
4.9%
6.8%
4.6%
1.2%
100
100
100
0
11.5
11.7
11.9
16.1
8.6
9.2
9.0
11.7
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.7
1.16
1.18
1.20
1.62
0.93
1.00
0.97
1.27
12.0
6.2
10.1
11.3
6.4
4.1
7.6
8.5
0.7
1.0
2.5
-
6.1%
8.1% 11.5%
-29.2% -
2.4
0.2
2.0
0.1
37.9%
-4.0%
46.4%
3.3%
Andrew Scott
Andrew Scott
Andrew Scott
Andrew Scott
Chemicals
IPL
ORI
Incitec Pivot
Orica
Commercial Services & Supplies

BXB
DOW
SEK
TSE
Brambles
Downer EDI
SEEK
Transfield Svcs
Consumer Services
EGP
CWN
TAH
TTS
Echo Entertainment
Crown
Tabcorp
Tatts Group
Construction
BLD
CSR
FBU.NZ
JHX
Boral
CSR Ltd
Fletcher Bldg
James Hardie
Containers, Packaging & Paper

AMC
Amcor
8,174
Jun 11
6.67
7.54
7.54
13%
Buy
-1%
16%
570.3
659.2
741.1
0.8
46.5
53.7
60.4
-3.2%
15%
12%
14%
35.0
36.0
40.0
5.4%
12.4
11.0
0.9
1.25
1.20
10.0
7.0
4.2
17.5%
1.9
5,053
2,083
7,342
866
9,971
Jun 11
Jun 11
Mar 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
29.55
4.12
21.08
20.38
7.75
32.55
5.30
31.85
29.00
9.87
32.55
5.30
31.85
29.00
9.87
10%
29%
51%
42%
27%
Hold
Buy
Buy
Hold
Buy
-22%
-12%
-43%
-35%
-10%
-4%
5%
-26%
-17%
7%
356.6
248.0
956.0
72.9
637.6
392.8
272.0
965.6
79.5
1,073.9
431.1
300.7
1,157.1
80.7
1,231.6
0.9
4.8
n.a.
1.2
n.a.
204.0
48.1
275.0
165.5
49.7
223.2
53.5
270.1
182.4
83.5
242.7
56.4
319.0
187.7
95.7
-0.2%
2.7%
-15.5%
-11.5%
-1.5%
9%
11%
-2%
10%
68%
9%
5%
18%
3%
15%
8%
4%
11%
5%
29%
183.2
16.5
186.0
185.0
35.0
200.0
18.5
186.0
165.0
50.1
217.4
19.5
190.0
171.0
57.4
6.8%
4.5%
8.8%
8.1%
6.5%
100
100
30
100
100
13.2
7.7
7.8
11.2
9.3
12.2
7.3
6.6
10.9
8.1
1.6
1.8
0.7
2.1
0.3
1.33
0.78
0.79
1.13
0.94
1.32
0.79
0.72
1.18
0.88
9.1
5.6
5.5
5.7
42.8
8.6
5.5
5.2
5.1
26.7
7.0
1.5
0.6
6.9
1.2
12.9% 16.7% 8.1%

23.5% 6.9%
0.8
0.3
n.a.
0.6
n.a.
75.6% Andrew Scott
8,974
663
Dec 10
Jun 11
11.87
0.48
13.43
0.60
13.43
0.80
13%
25%
Buy
Hold
9%
-62%
27%
-44%
506.6
135.2
543.5
128.9
600.0
141.5
0.9
1.1
67.3
9.8
71.7
7.1
78.8
7.2
-0.6%
-34.5%
7%
-27%
10%
2%
9%
-9%
48.5
7.8
55.0
5.7
58.5
5.8
4.6%
12.0%
100
40
16.6
6.7
15.1
6.6
1.8
-0.7
1.44
0.68
1.52
0.72
11.6
5.1
9.3
4.0
19.4
25.9
28.8%
8.9%
1.1
2.1
1,804
2,619
15,477
1,511
3,805
4,489
4,424
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
13.02
46.28
29.34
3.07
18.83
2.94
11.39
13.92
66.96
29.31
2.84
17.95
2.98
13.12
13.92
66.96
29.31
2.84
18.00
2.99
13.13
7%
45%
0%
-8%
-5%
1%
15%
Hold
Buy
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Buy
3%
-42%
-19%
-19%
6%
-16%
-2%
20%
-25%
-2%
-1%
23%
1%
15%
122.9
180.1
940.6
96.5
204.7
229.9
294.5
127.8
168.6
954.9
118.5
227.7
212.7
308.0
138.5
199.3
1,004.2
129.7
252.1
223.7
338.1
0.8
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.2
0.8
1.0
92.4
316.1
173.6
19.5
101.1
14.6
75.5
96.4
295.8
180.9
23.7
112.4
13.9
78.6
106.6
349.6
190.7
25.6
124.4
15.0
86.3
0.4%
-23.0%
-3.9%
-2.7%
-0.3%
-2.5%
-4.8%
4%
-6%
4%
22%
11%
-5%
4%
11%
18%
5%
8%
11%
8%
10%
12%
10%
5%
13%
11%
7%
8%
32.4
225.0
80.0
8.0
52.0
0.0
59.0
42.2
200.0
81.0
18.0
58.0
0.0
61.0
49.9
230.0
88.0
20.0
64.0
0.0
67.0
3.4%
4.3%
2.8%
5.9%
3.1%
0.0%
5.4%
0
100
0
100
100
0
32
11.9
15.6
16.2
12.9
16.8
18.6
14.5
10.5
13.2
15.4
12.0
15.1
16.8
13.2
1.0
1.6
3.1
1.0
1.5
2.8
1.8
1.20
1.58
1.64
1.30
1.69
1.88
1.46
1.14
1.44
1.67
1.30
1.65
1.82
1.43
11.1
10.3
12.3
9.8
10.9
13.8
11.8
9.2
9.3
10.7
7.3
8.3
10.6
9.5
11.2
7.7
4.8
14.8
0.3
-
22.7%
31.7% 24.6% 4.7%
20.4%
13.1% 12.1%
0.2
0.2
0.2
3.0
1.7
1.6
2.3
6.0%
-10.2%
-7.6%
41.6%
71.5%
-32.1%
56.3%
ConnectEast
MAp Airports
Transurban
2,147
5,993
7,622
Jun 11
Dec 10
Jun 11
0.55
3.22
5.28
0.55
3.68
5.90
0.52
3.68
5.90
0%
14%
12%
Hold
Buy
Buy
28%
8%
3%
45%
25%
20%
-10.3
127.2
112.5
-13.5
120.0
110.6
5.5
131.9
187.8
0.7
1.1
0.9
-0.3
7.1
7.9
-0.3
6.4
7.7
0.1
7.1
13.0
-28.2%
16.0%
-24%
-9%
-3%
10%
70%
25%
6%
27%
2.0
33.5
27.0
2.2
21.0
29.5
2.4
21.0
32.0
4.0%
6.5%
5.6%
0
0
0
49.9
68.9
45.4
40.6
8.0
2.5
4.34
6.95
42.83
4.58
4.41
47.2
20.8
36.2
20.2
13.4
18.1
1.3
-
-0.8%
2.5%
3.1%
6.7
6.0
6.4
62.2% William Allott

Computershare
4,309
Jun 11
7.19
9.50
9.50
32%
Buy
-33%
-16%
312.3
300.7
330.1
0.8
55.9
53.8
59.1
-6.4%
-4%
10%
7%
28.0
28.0
32.0
4.1%
60
11.8
10.4
1.7
1.19
1.14
10.2
8.8
24.4%
1.6
62.5% Richard Coles
7,283
6,047
13,572
Dec 10
Jun 11
Dec 10
3.86
2.92
13.10
5.92
3.36
17.94
5.92
3.36
17.94
53%
15%
37%
Buy
Hold
Buy
-27%
-25%
-28%
-10%
-7%
-11%
752.0
427.0
1,447.0
973.8
659.6
1,499.5
1,147.5
723.2
1,754.0
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
35.9
20.5
133.1
36.9
31.7
129.2
40.7
34.8
147.5
-8.4%
-6.7%
-10.9%
3%
54%
-3%
10%
10%
14%
8%
24%
8%
30.0
14.0
121.2
28.2
21.0
132.0
33.0
23.0
140.7
7.3%
7.2%
10.7%
60
100
10
10.5
9.2
9.1
9.5
8.4
7.7
1.3
0.4
1.2
0.98
0.97
0.88
1.04
0.95
0.87
21.5
12.2
21.5
12.2
3.3
2.2
2.9
20.4%
14.0%
13.0%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
178.7% Richard Coles

29.9% Richard Coles
42.6% Richard Coles
Diversified Financials
ASX
CGF
MQG
PPT
SUN
Aust Securities Exchang

Challenger Financial Svc
Macquarie Group
Perpetual
Suncorp Group
-13.7%
-7.0%
-27.0%
386.3%
Richard Coles
Richard Coles
Andrew Lyons
Richard Coles
Richard Coles
Food Beverage & Tobacco

CCL
GFF
C-C Amatil
Goodman Fielder
64.8% Michael Nolan

43.4% Michael Nolan
Healthcare
ANN
COH
CSL
PRY
RHC
RMD
SHL
Ansell
Cochlear
CSL Ltd
Primary Health
Ramsay Health
ResMed Inc
Sonic Health
Dr Derek Jellinek
Dr Derek Jellinek
Dr Derek Jellinek
Dr Derek Jellinek
Dr Derek Jellinek
Dr Derek Jellinek
Dr Derek Jellinek
Infrastructure
CEU
MAP
TCL
IT
CPU
Insurance
AMP
IAG
QBE
AMP Ltd
IAG
QBE Insurance
Source: Company data, RBS forecasts, RBS Morgans forecasts.

* Share prices as at close of trading on 5 October 2011. Target prices, forecasts and recommendations for some companies featured in 'The Bulletin' may have been updated overnight.
++ Share prices as at close of trading on 5 October 2011. Financial forecasts in NZD.
# JHX, ANN and BXB price and market cap reported in AUD. Financial forecasts in USD.
* Earnings Quality: Net Operating Cash Flow/(Net Profit + Depreciation & Amortisation)
29

5 October 2011
Market
cap
(A$m)
Last
year
end
Price
(A$)
Target FV (A$)
Up/
price
down
(A$)
Rec
12m
YTD - YTD -Rel.

Abs.
Earnings
Quality*
Actual
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
560.9 -
EPS ANALYSIS
IBES 3m
EPS growth
EPS (pre goodwill)
revisions
DIVIDEND ANALYSIS
Div yield
DPS (c)
EPS
CAGR
Div
frank
(%)
PE (x)
(pre goodwill)
PEG
VALUATION
PE rel
(pre goodwill)
EV/
EV / P/ NTA
EBIT (x) EBITDA (x)
B/SHEET ANALYSIS
ratio for
banks)
Actual
Actual
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
12m fwd
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
3 yr
Actual
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
0.1
90.3
87.7
102.5
-1.8%
-3%
17%
10%
35.0
44.0
51.5
6.3%
70
8.0
6.8
0.8
0.81
0.74
7.8
6.9
1.5
12.8%
1.8
35.6% Andrew Hodge
Management and development

LLC
Lend Lease Corp
3,996
Jun 11
7.00
10.75
10.75
54%
Buy
-19%
-2%
485.3
476.3
1,964
42,935
904
1,745
Jun 11
Jun 11
Aug 10
Jun 11
0.83
16.35
0.87
2.68
1.45
19.70
0.95
3.47
1.60
23.97
1.06
4.77
75%
20%
9%
29%
Buy
Buy
Hold
Hold
-41%
2%
-38%
-58%
-23%
19%
-21%
-41%
273.8
2,929.6
96.9
115.1
284.8
3,183.7
78.1
281.3
328.6
3,409.6
80.6
293.6
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.0
11.6
111.3
9.3
37.5
12.1
128.7
7.5
41.9
14.0
147.4
7.7
41.8
-9.4%
12.2%
-16.3%
-10.0%
4%
16%
-19%
12%
15%
14%
3%
0%
10%
16%
4%
5%
3.0
17.0
11.0
45.0
3.6
18.7
5.0
35.0
7.0
20.6
5.8
35.0
4.4%
1.2%
5.8%
13.1%
100
0
100
100
6.9
11.2
11.6
6.4
6.0
9.5
11.2
6.4
0.7
0.7
3.0
1.2
0.70
1.13
1.00
0.64
0.65
1.03
1.13
0.70
6.4
7.7
9.4
6.4
5.2
5.5
8.0
5.7
8.6
-
6.3%
11.9%
8.7%
10.8%
2.1
0.6
2.4
2.9
27.6%
15.5%
46.8%
66.1%
1,134
5,776
1,872
Dec 10
Jun 11
Jun 11
2.46
18.81
11.18
4.03
20.67
14.47
3.40
20.67
13.21
64%
10%
29%
Buy
Hold
Buy
-46%
-38%
-23%
-29%
-20%
-5%
91.8
-107.7
164.4
142.4
609.7
179.8
178.7
672.2
205.3
0.3
1.8
0.7
20.1
-35.1
98.8
31.3
181.2
107.5
39.3
199.7
122.4
2.9%
-5.9%
55%
9%
26%
10%
14%
30%
84%
12%
5.5
60.0
70.0
9.8
116.0
75.0
12.8
128.0
85.0
4.3%
6.2%
6.7%
35
100
100
7.1
10.4
10.4
5.4
9.4
9.1
0.2
0.1
0.9
0.61
1.05
1.11
0.55
1.02
1.03
5.8
6.1
7.2
4.0
3.2
6.1
1.3
2.6
10.8
13.4%
25.0%
14.5%
0.9
0.1
0.3
25.6% Andrew Hodge

6.5% Andrew Hodge
7.2% Andrew Hodge
Westfield Group
Goodman Group
16,772
3,757
Dec 10
Jun 11
7.26
0.55
8.69
0.81
8.69
0.76
20%
47%
Hold
Buy
-24%
-15%
-7%
2%
1,745.7
383.9
1,482.4
476.3
1,575.7
527.9
1.0
0.8
75.7
5.3
64.2
6.2
68.2
6.6
-0.3%
-1.7%
-15%
17%
6%
7%
-2%
9%
63.6
3.5
48.4
3.8
50.6
4.2
6.7%
6.9%
0
0
11.3
8.8
10.6
8.2
-7.3
1.0
0.98
0.88
1.07
0.90
15.5
15.6
15.5
15.4
1.0
1.1
8.8%
10.2%
7.0
4.5
79.9% Andrew Hodge

30.2% Andrew Hodge
Billabong
David Jones
Harvey Norman
JB Hi-Fi
Metcash
Myer
Wesfarmers
Woolworths
842
1,450
2,325
1,547
3,122
1,207
34,848
29,857
Jun 11
Jul 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Apr 11
Jul 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
3.30
2.88
2.18
14.10
4.06
2.07
30.01
24.18
3.65
2.95
2.60
17.25
4.25
2.55
29.70
29.10
3.65
2.95
2.60
17.25
4.25
2.55
29.70
29.10
11%
2%
19%
22%
5%
23%
-1%
20%
Hold
Hold
Buy
Buy
Hold
Buy
Hold
Buy
-60%
-35%
-26%
-21%
-1%
-42%
-6%
-10%
-42%
-18%
-9%
-4%
16%
-24%
11%
7%
118.0
168.1
242.0
134.4
248.3
163.2
1,870.0
2,124.0
111.7
147.6
243.7
138.0
276.9
142.0
2,420.3
2,224.8
124.6
158.3
270.7
156.1
304.4
160.7
2,744.2
2,471.8
0.2
0.9
1.1
0.7
1.3
1.0
1.0
1.0
46.3
33.0
22.8
120.2
32.3
28.0
161.6
171.6
43.7
28.8
22.9
138.7
36.0
24.3
207.4
179.8
48.6
30.7
25.5
155.5
39.6
27.6
230.9
199.7
-22.9%
-17.0%
-12.8%
-7.7%
-0.4%
-15.1%
-4.4%
-5.9%
-6%
-13%
1%
15%
12%
-13%
28%
5%
11%
7%
11%
12%
10%
13%
11%
11%
3%
-3%
8%
12%
8%
2%
16%
9%
29.0
28.0
12.0
77.0
27.0
22.5
150.0
122.0
29.0
24.0
11.0
85.0
29.0
20.0
180.0
131.0
31.0
27.0
13.0
96.0
32.0
22.5
200.0
141.0
8.8%
8.3%
5.0%
6.0%
7.1%
9.7%
6.0%
5.4%
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7.6
10.0
9.5
10.2
11.3
8.5
14.5
13.5
6.8
9.4
8.6
9.1
10.3
7.5
13.0
12.1
2.5
-3.5
1.2
0.9
1.4
3.5
0.9
1.5
0.76
1.01
0.96
1.03
1.14
0.86
1.46
1.36
0.74
1.02
0.93
0.99
1.12
0.82
1.41
1.32
7.8
7.4
6.7
8.2
7.9
7.0
9.9
10.0
6.2
6.0
5.4
7.1
7.1
5.1
7.9
7.7
2.0
1.0
12.1
213.7
5.7
10.2
9.2%
19.0%
10.8%
79.5%
19.9%
16.9%
9.3%
28.2%
2.3
0.5
0.6
0.7
1.2
1.3
1.0
0.9
40.6%
18.1%
13.0%
88.6%
44.2%
50.8%
17.9%
47.8%
37,454
Jun 11
3.01
3.32
3.50
10%
Buy
8%
25%
3,231.0
3,551.0
3,666.1
1.0
25.9
28.5
29.4
4.1%
10%
3%
5%
28.0
28.0
28.0
9.3%
100
10.6
10.2
2.0
1.07
1.11
8.4
4.8
6.9
28.9%
1.3
Asciano Group
Qantas Airways
QR National
Toll Holdings
3,994
3,115
7,174
2,961
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
1.37
1.38
2.94
4.17
1.91
1.68
3.35
5.42
2.03
2.55
3.45
5.49
39%
21%
14%
30%
Buy
Hold
Hold
Buy
-14%
-46%
7%
-27%
3%
-28%
24%
-10%
189.9
416.0
172.4
269.0
268.3
507.4
390.6
309.4
347.1
642.8
459.5
356.9
1.2
1.1
0.9
1.1
6.5
18.4
7.1
38.1
9.2
22.4
16.0
42.7
11.9
28.1
18.8
48.6
2.4%
-1.4%
5.1%
-7.4%
41%
22%
127%
12%
29%
26%
18%
14%
30%
25%
40%
13%
2.0
0.0
3.7
25.0
3.0
6.0
8.3
27.0
3.5
9.0
8.6
31.0
2.2%
4.4%
2.8%
6.5%
0
100
0
100
14.9
6.2
18.4
9.8
11.5
4.9
15.6
8.6
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.8
1.50
0.62
1.85
0.99
1.25
0.53
1.70
0.93
10.2
7.6
14.4
9.0
7.0
2.9
7.8
5.7
6.1
0.5
1.0
2.7
8.1%
8.0%
5.5%
10.8%
2.7
1.5
1.5
1.8
71.4%
49.1%
22.8%
43.4%
AGL Energy
APA Group
DUET
Spark Infra
6,606
2,568
1,456
1,619
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Dec 10
14.32
4.05
1.60
1.22
16.25
4.55
2.00
1.35
16.25
2.00
1.35
13%
12%
25%
11%
Buy
Buy
Buy
Hold
-6%
0%
-4%
8%
11%
17%
13%
25%
431.1
108.5
124.9
78.4
479.1
117.4
90.7
153.0
529.7
132.9
89.0
165.2
1.0
1.5
1.1
0.6
94.4
19.7
14.1
6.7
103.4
18.2
9.2
11.5
113.6
20.1
8.1
12.4
0.9%
-10.1%
-19.9%
-1.6%
10%
-7%
-35%
73%
10%
10%
-11%
8%
10%
4%
-17%
23%
60.0
34.4
20.0
13.5
64.0
35.4
16.0
9.5
68.0
36.5
16.5
9.7
4.5%
8.7%
10.0%
7.8%
100
0
0
0
13.8
22.2
17.5
10.6
12.6
20.2
19.7
9.8
1.4
6.2
-1.0
0.5
1.40
2.24
1.76
0.92
1.37
2.19
2.15
0.99
10.4
12.9
11.7
10.1
8.6
10.1
8.7
10.1
1.9
3.1
1.1
7.4%
7.3%
6.5%
10.7%
1.1
5.4
6.8
3.8
15.0%
189.2%
292.3%
67.6%
Media
FXJ
NWS
TEN
SWM
Fairfax Media
News Corp
Ten Network
Seven West Media
Fraser McLeish
Fraser McLeish
Fraser McLeish
Fraser McLeish
Other Capital Goods

BLY
LEI
UGL
Boart Longyear
Leighton
UGL
Real Estate
WDC
GMG
Retail
BBG
DJS
HVN
JBH
MTS
MYR
WES
WOW
Daniel Broeren
Daniel Broeren
Daniel Broeren
Daniel Broeren
Daniel Broeren
Daniel Broeren
Daniel Broeren
Daniel Broeren
Telecommunication Services
TLS
Telstra
104.4% Fraser McLeish
Transportation
AIO
QAN
QRN
TOL
Mark Williams
Mark Williams
Mark Williams
Mark Williams
Utilities
AGK
APA
DUE
SKI
Jason Mabee, CFA

Jason Mabee, CFA
William Allott
William Allott
Source: Company data, RBS forecasts, RBS Morgans forecasts

++ Share prices as at close of trading on 5 October 2011. Financial forecasts in NZD.
30

5 October 2011
Market
cap
(A$m)
Last
year
end
Price
(A$)
Target FV (A$)
Up/
price
down
(A$)
Rec
12m
YTD - YTD -Rel.

Abs.
Earnings
Quality*
EPS ANALYSIS
IBES 3m
EPS growth
EPS (pre goodwill)
revisions
DIVIDEND ANALYSIS
Div yield
DPS (c)
EPS
CAGR
Div
frank
(%)
PE (x)
(pre goodwill)
PEG
VALUATION
PE rel
(pre goodwill)
EV/
EV / P/ NTA
EBIT (x) EBITDA (x)
B/SHEET ANALYSIS
ratio for
banks)
Actual
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
Actual
Actual
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
12m fwd
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
3 yr
Actual
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Aluminium & Steel

AWC
BSL
OST
SGM
Alumina
BlueScope Steel
OneSteel
Sims Metal Mgt
3,599
1,382
1,559
2,397
Dec 10
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
1.48
0.75
1.16
11.67
2.21
0.94
2.10
19.10
2.21
1.25
2.10
19.10
49%
25%
81%
64%
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
-40%
-67%
-55%
-46%
-23%
-49%
-38%
-29%
39.9
-113.8
235.0
182.0
144.2
-68.9
275.4
279.6
129.3
94.4
285.1
364.1
5.5
0.1
1.0
0.5
1.6
-6.2
17.6
88.9
5.9
-3.8
20.6
136.1
5.3
5.1
21.4
177.3
-23.0%
-59.0%
-15.0%
-4.3%
262%
65%
17%
53%
-10%
4%
30%
86%
15%
19%
32%
6.0
2.0
10.0
47.0
6.0
0.0
8.2
68.0
6.0
2.6
10.7
88.6
4.3%
0.0%
7.1%
5.8%
100
100
50
45
22.4
5.6
8.6
24.2
14.6
5.5
6.6
0.3
0.3
0.3
1.94
0.57
0.86
2.44
1.59
0.59
0.72
20.7
223.1
6.4
5.7
20.7
8.3
4.7
4.5
1.0
0.5
0.7
1.2
4.8%
-1.7%
6.0%
9.3%
2.4
3.9
2.7
0.2
13.3%
32.4%
44.4%
4.1%
Lyndon Fagan
Todd Scott
Todd Scott
Todd Scott
7,369
14,096
910
10,805
26,323
6,197
Dec 10
Jun 11
Jun 11
Dec 10
Dec 10
Jun 11
5.67
13.23
1.17
11.36
32.80
25.22
7.50
16.50
1.87
14.00
46.00
26.60
7.50
18.35
1.87
14.00
46.00
21.81
32%
25%
60%
23%
40%
5%
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Hold
-19%
-18%
-76%
-14%
-23%
-6%
-2%
-1%
-59%
4%
-6%
12%
156.6
673.0
-59.5
356.1
1,540.5
321.6
178.4
911.4
-22.1
508.9
1,722.7
377.7
144.4
1,038.6
24.1
554.0
1,934.3
443.5
2.1
0.7
2.3
1.5
1.0
0.7
11.9
71.0
-8.0
50.3
201.1
130.0
13.5
84.1
-2.8
59.6
214.7
152.4
10.8
92.5
3.1
60.7
235.5
178.9
-6.0%
-5.0%
-49.0%
-0.2%
-1.4%
0.7%
13%
18%
182%
19%
7%
17%
-20%
10%
2%
10%
17%
-11%
11%
4%
9%
5%
17%
4.0
50.0
0.0
30.0
105.0
86.0
4.0
52.0
0.0
30.0
110.0
93.0
4.0
56.0
0.0
31.0
130.0
113.0
0.7%
3.9%
0.0%
2.6%
3.6%
3.7%
0
100
0
100
100
55
37.8
15.7
19.1
13.7
16.6
45.7
14.3
32.4
18.7
12.1
14.1
-3.4
1.5
2.1
2.6
1.0
3.28
1.59
1.65
1.19
1.83
4.60
1.55
3.52
1.89
1.22
1.59
20.1
11.2
53.6
12.5
11.4
12.0
17.8
8.0
20.4
7.2
9.3
10.7
2.4
2.0
0.7
1.3
2.0
19.7
6.5%
7.3%
-1.8%
6.4% 15.2%
18.6%
2.0
2.0
9.6
0.1
1.7
0.6
29.4%
33.3%
52.3%
-2.4%
41.4%
19.3%
Jason Mabee, CFA

Jason Mabee, CFA
Lyndon Fagan
Jason Mabee, CFA
Jason Mabee, CFA
Andrew Hodge
187,017
13,232
5,590
1,722
4,773
3,038
1,491
118,248
Jun 11
Jun 11
Dec 10
Jun 11
Jun 11
Dec 10
Dec 10
Dec 10
35.13
4.25
13.35
1.00
15.80
9.38
2.51
60.30
50.62
8.47
18.87
2.19
16.00
14.82
4.32
109.18
50.62
8.47
18.87
2.19
12.88
14.82
4.32
109.18
44%
99%
41%
119%
1%
58%
72%
81%
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Hold
Buy
Buy
Buy
-22%
-35%
46%
-51%
23%
-45%
-44%
-29%
-5%
-18%
63%
-34%
41%
-28%
-26%
-12%
21,889.8 24,470.3 24,325.5

1,649.2 2,030.1 1,697.7
36.1
452.4 1,075.8
-22.4
95.4 1,078.9
241.4
255.8
283.9
398.2
367.7
386.6
173.9
177.0
294.2
15,195.0 17,227.8 18,336.8
1.2
1.6
0.7
0.9
0.1
1.1
1.2
1.0
411.2
53.0
8.6
-1.3
79.9
127.6
5.9
770.3
464.1
65.2
108.0
5.6
84.7
118.8
29.4
895.7
461.3
54.5
256.9
63.0
94.0
124.9
48.1
971.7
-4.5%
-9.4%
9.2%
-27.9%
-10.6%
-7.6%
-5.4%
-7.9%
13%
23%
1153%
6%
-7%
400%
16%
-1%
-16%
138%
1031%
11%
5%
64%
8%
6%
16%
11%
1%
8%
101.0
6.9
8.0
0.0
40.0
190.0
0.0
108.0
116.0
8.0
50.0
0.0
42.3
56.0
0.0
119.0
124.0
8.0
103.0
0.0
47.0
56.2
1.0
125.5
3.5%
2.0%
3.7%
0.0%
2.7%
6.0%
0.0%
2.1%
100
0
100
0
100
0
0
100
6.7
5.7
12.4
18.0
18.7
7.9
7.7
6.0
6.5
6.7
5.2
1.6
16.8
7.5
4.5
5.4
1.0
0.4
1.8
9.4
0.7
0.67
0.58
1.07
1.82
1.88
0.69
0.67
0.52
0.71
0.73
0.52
0.17
1.83
0.76
0.46
0.54
4.7
4.9
8.2
14.6
12.9
4.6
5.0
4.9
4.1
4.7
6.3
11.5
11.6
3.4
4.1
4.3
2.3
2.7
3.2
2.3
2.5
1.1
1.8
2.2
39.5%
60.9%
31.1%
13.9%
13.7%
12.3%
25.7%
27.2%
0.3
1.5
0.2
0.9
0.9
1.2
0.3
0.1
18.9%
124.5%
-9.7%
-16.3%
-17.9%
-28.8%
-10.0%
4.8%
Newcrest Mining
25,909
Jun 11
33.86
43.59
31.14
29%
1%
1.4
118.7
270.1
257.2
1.0%
128%
-5%
36%
18.0
54.0
51.0
1.6%
100
12.5
13.2
0.3
1.26
1.43
8.5
7.2
1.6
13.9%
Exchange
rate
(A$/US$)
Gold
Energy
OSH
ORG
PDN
STO
WPL
WOR
Oil Search
Origin Energy
Paladin
Santos
Woodside
WorleyParsons
Diversified Metals & Mining

BHP
FMG
ILU
LYC
MCC
OZL
PNA
RIO
BHP Billiton
Fortescue Meta
Iluka Resources
Lynas
Macarthur Coa
OZ Minerals
PanAust
Rio Tinto
Lyndon Fagan
Lyndon Fagan
Sam Berridge
Sam Berridge
Tom Sartor
Lyndon Fagan
Tom Sartor
Lyndon Fagan
Gold & Precious Metals

NCM
FY10
CY10
FY11
CY11
FY12
CY12
FY13
CY13
LT (2015+)
0.88
0.92
0.99
1.05
1.07
1.08
1.10
1.08
0.75
Oil
WTI
(US$/oz) (US$/bbl)
1092
1223
1370
1649
1850
1750
1600
1525
1100
77.2
82.6
93.2
94.4
87.8
91.0
94.3
96.0
90.0
Copper
LME
(US$/lb)
3.03
3.42
3.93
4.27
4.36
4.50
4.65
4.86
3.00
Buy
-16%
Aluminium
Zinc
LME
LME
(US$/lb) (US$/lb)
Nickel
LME
(US$/lb)
0.91
0.99
1.08
1.15
1.15
1.19
1.25
1.35
1.15
8.79
9.89
10.87
10.94
10.43
11.00
11.95
12.98
8.50
0.94
0.98
1.02
1.05
1.05
1.10
1.18
1.33
1.00
908.0
Coal
coking steaming
(US$/t)
(US$/t)
146.0
190.5
247.3
287.5
301.3
305.0
290.0
270.0
180.0
76.3
90.0
108.3
120.0
118.8
116.3
112.5
107.5
100.0
2,067.0
1,968.2
0.1
2.0% Sam Berridge
Iron ore
lump
fines
(US$/t) (US$/t)
86.4
219.9
279.3
219.9
280.2
219.9
252.9
219.9
151.5
73.7
118.1
154.1
162.4
161.4
153.2
145.4
137.9
84.8

Share prices as at close of trading on 5 October 2011. Target prices, forecasts and recommendations for some companies featured in 'The Bulletin' may have been updated overnight.
** BHP, LGL, PDN & RIO price and market cap reported in AUD. Financial forecasts in USD.
31
RBS Ex-100 Earnings Forecasts

5 October 2011
Market
cap
(A$m)
Last
year
end
Price
(A$)
Target FV (A$)
Up/
price
down
(A$)
Rec YTD -Abs.

12m
YTD Rel.
Earnings
Quality *
EPS ANALYSIS
EPS growth
IBES 3m
EPS (pre goodwill)
revisions
DIVIDEND ANALYSIS
Div yield
DPS (c)
EPS
CAGR
Div
frank
(%)
PE (x)
(pre goodwill)
PEG
VALUATION
PE rel
(pre goodwill)
EV/
EV / P/ NTA
EBIT (x) EBITDA (x)
B/SHEET ANALYSIS
ROE
Gearing (Tier 1 Analyst
ND/EBITDA ratio for banks)
Actual
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
Actual
Actual
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
12m fwd
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
3 yr
Actual
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
1.2
1.6
161.5% Julian Guido

27.4% Andrew Scott
34.7%
36.5%
-5.3%
-29.1%
71.3%
16.9%
87.6%
-56.7%
-4.1%
27.9%
-13.2%
39.1%
75.5%
22.0%
45.8%
16.1%
71.4%
1.9%
-34.2%
Julian Guido
Roger Leaning
Matthew Nicholas
Roger Leaning
Roger Leaning
Julian Guido
Scott Murdoch
Alexandra Clarke
Todd Scott
Julian Guido
Roger Leaning
Julian Guido
Julian Guido
Julian Guido
Julian Guido
Alexandra Clarke
Roger Leaning
Matthew Nicholas
Josephine Little
21.2%
13.2%
-58.7%
41.7%
6.1%
-74.6%
20.5%
Andrew Scott
Alexandra Clarke
Alexandra Clarke
Alexandra Clarke
Scott Murdoch
Andrew Hodge
Scott Murdoch
Chemicals
DLX
NUF
Duluxgroup
Nufarm
922
1,074
Sep 10
Jul 11
2.51
4.10
3.13
5.05
3.13
5.05
25%
23%
Buy
Buy
-9%
-20%
9%
-3%
71.5
86.1
79.1
101.9
80.9
118.5
1.5
1.0
19.5
32.9
21.5
38.9
22.0
45.3
-1.1%
-8.9%
11%
18%
2%
16%
6%
15%
3.0
0.0
15.0
11.7
16.0
13.6
6.0%
2.8%
100
50
11.7
10.5
11.4
9.1
2.1
0.7
1.01
1.06
1.15
0.98
8.3
7.1
7.2
5.4
28.3
1.2
77.3%
6.4%
487
2,763
44
2
62
115
71
223
1,738
239
47
923
402
415
473
204
500
171
86
Jun 11
Mar 11
Jun 11
Jun 10
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Mar 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
4.04
40.93
0.51
0.04
0.46
0.85
0.73
1.79
9.46
2.02
0.38
4.63
2.52
1.78
1.80
2.12
0.52
1.18
2.20
6.63
44.77
0.65
0.30
0.58
1.68
0.87
2.51
11.50
2.14
0.64
5.20
4.49
2.30
2.25
2.44
0.80
1.70
2.74
6.63
44.77
0.65
0.30
0.58
1.68
0.87
2.51
11.50
2.14
0.64
5.20
4.49
2.30
2.25
2.44
1.60
1.70
2.74
64%
9%
26%
641%
26%
98%
19%
40%
22%
6%
68%
12%
78%
29%
25%
15%
54%
44%
25%
Buy
Hold
Hold
Buy
Hold
Buy
Hold
Buy
Hold
Hold
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Hold
Buy
Hold
Buy
Buy
-31%
3%
-28%
-56%
-56%
-54%
7%
-33%
-23%
17%
-32%
-5%
-42%
-2%
-14%
0%
-62%
-22%
1%
-14%
21%
-11%
-38%
-39%
-37%
25%
-16%
-6%
34%
-15%
12%
-25%
15%
3%
17%
-45%
-5%
18%
65.6
132.1
4.7
1.3
1.8
21.5
10.1
23.5
151.0
28.6
4.9
57.8
51.6
26.1
43.1
13.1
50.0
13.8
9.1
66.0
176.3
6.9
1.3
19.2
17.0
11.3
26.4
184.6
29.1
6.4
66.4
60.7
43.8
52.0
18.1
48.9
16.9
9.8
70.6
199.6
8.2
1.7
22.6
23.8
12.7
29.8
205.6
33.7
6.7
77.9
68.2
51.9
58.8
19.1
72.3
21.9
10.4
0.3
0.9
1.6
1.1
0.5
1.1
1.0
1.1
0.7
0.1
0.7
0.8
0.5
1.0
0.7
0.9
1.1
0.5
1.1
54.5
202.4
5.4
1.8
1.4
15.9
10.3
18.9
89.8
24.2
3.9
29.8
32.4
12.5
16.5
13.9
4.4
9.7
23.3
54.8
261.1
8.0
2.1
14.3
12.6
11.6
21.2
101.8
24.7
5.2
33.3
37.9
18.3
19.8
18.3
4.3
11.5
24.9
58.7
295.7
9.4
2.7
16.9
17.7
12.9
24.0
113.4
28.5
5.4
39.0
42.6
21.7
22.3
18.8
6.5
14.7
26.6
-1.8%
5.7%
-2.5%
-2.4%
-13.7%
1.8%
1.3%
-4.0%
-9.2%
1.5%
-8.1%
3.6%
-2.3%
-13.5%
-
0%
29%
48%
20%
946%
-20%
12%
12%
13%
2%
31%
12%
17%
47%
20%
32%
-2%
19%
7%
7%
13%
18%
29%
18%
40%
11%
13%
11%
16%
4%
17%
12%
18%
13%
3%
51%
27%
7%
4%
14%
23%
24%
9%
13%
12%
6%
9%
12%
16%
11%
27%
13%
13%
16%
21%
6%
30.0
140.0
4.0
0.0
0.0
5.0
6.2
6.0
42.0
9.0
2.0
14.3
24.0
3.0
11.0
3.0
0.0
5.5
16.5
37.5
157.0
5.5
0.0
0.0
6.5
6.9
7.0
51.0
11.0
4.0
16.3
27.1
7.0
13.0
4.0
0.0
6.0
17.5
38.0
177.0
6.5
0.0
5.0
10.2
7.7
8.0
55.9
13.0
4.0
20.3
31.2
13.0
14.5
4.0
0.0
7.0
18.6
9.3%
3.8%
10.8%
0.0%
0.0%
7.7%
9.5%
3.9%
5.4%
5.4%
10.5%
3.5%
10.7%
3.9%
7.2%
1.9%
0.0%
5.1%
7.9%
100
50
100
0
100
0
100
0
0
100
100
100
100
100
40
100
100
50
100
7.4
15.7
6.4
5.0
3.2
6.7
6.3
8.5
9.3
8.2
7.3
13.9
6.6
9.7
9.1
11.6
12.0
10.2
8.8
6.9
13.8
5.4
3.9
2.7
4.8
5.6
7.5
8.3
7.1
7.0
11.9
5.9
8.2
8.1
11.2
7.9
8.0
8.3
1.6
1.1
0.3
0.2
0.8
0.5
0.7
1.5
0.9
0.6
0.9
0.6
0.4
0.7
0.9
0.8
0.5
1.5
0.74
1.58
0.64
0.14
0.32
0.68
0.63
0.85
0.94
0.83
0.74
1.40
0.80
1.01
0.92
1.17
1.21
1.03
0.89
0.75
1.51
0.59
0.13
0.30
0.52
0.61
0.81
0.91
0.77
0.77
1.29
0.75
0.91
0.88
1.22
0.86
0.88
0.90
8.2
11.4
3.7
-1.5
4.4
5.0
7.0
4.0
6.4
6.1
3.9
10.9
6.0
7.1
6.6
8.2
6.8
8.2
5.1
6.8
9.6
3.5
-1.0
3.6
3.0
2.4
3.6
5.2
5.1
3.0
9.7
4.8
5.9
3.9
5.5
4.0
5.4
4.5
2.0
7.1
2.0
1.3
8.2
0.9
2.7
2.4
2.0
2.7
7.4
2.3
8.6
3.6
20.8%
20.5%
7.7%
8.5%
14.7%
9.9%
11.5%
21.4%
27.0%
8.1%
13.3%
20.1%
18.0%
9.8%
11.3%
16.0%
3.1%
10.8%
18.0%
1.3
1.0
0.4
1.7
2.2
0.6
1.3
1.8
0.1
1.5
0.5
1.3
1.7
1.1
1.2
0.5
2.9
0.1
1.3
1,639
1,476
579
16
437
1,514
636
Dec 10
Jul 11
Jun 11
Jun 10
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
2.58
10.00
0.75
0.17
0.60
17.29
2.28
3.16
10.13
0.92
0.18
0.64
23.09
3.08
3.16
10.13
0.92
0.18
0.64
23.09
3.08
23%
1%
23%
4%
7%
34%
35%
Buy
Hold
Buy
Hold
Hold
Buy
Buy
-22%
-11%
0%
-15%
15%
-6%
6%
-5%
6%
17%
2%
33%
12%
23%
151.5
100.8
53.6
2.5
1.0
96.3
41.2
153.1
111.4
58.6
3.1
42.8
114.5
68.0
165.5
128.0
64.0 4.2
45.7
135.1
78.4
0.9
0.7
0.7
1.3
1.0
0.7
1.1
23.9
68.3
6.7
2.7
0.2
110.2
16.1
24.1
75.5
7.4
3.2
5.8
130.3
24.4
26.1
86.8
8.0
4.4
6.1
153.2
28.1
-2.4%
-25.9%
-2.9%
10.7%
2.8%
11.6%
1%
10%
9%
21%
2453%
18%
52%
8%
15%
9%
36%
7%
18%
15%
9%
8%
8%
23%
17%
24%
21.5
40.5
3.0
1.5
0.0
95.0
9.0
19.0
42.5
3.0
1.5
3.0
112.0
13.0
23.6
44.5
3.0
1.5
3.0
130.0
15.0
7.4%
4.3%
4.0%
8.8%
5.0%
6.5%
5.7%
100
100
0
0
100
100
0
10.7
13.2
10.2
5.3
10.3
13.3
9.4
9.9
11.5
9.3
3.9
9.7
11.3
8.1
1.2
1.6
1.3
0.2
0.8
0.4
0.93
1.34
1.03
0.46
1.04
1.34
0.94
1.00
1.25
1.01
0.39
1.05
1.23
0.88
9.6
21.1
7.5
5.9
6.5
8.5
6.4
7.5
15.7
7.0
4.8
3.5
7.5
4.2
2.1
1.0
1.8
1.4
7.2
2.3
16.2%
6.5%
18.2% 5.9%
12.6%
55.7% 23.7%
0.8
2.1
3.6
2.8
0.2
0.9
0.4
497
164
50
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
7.20
2.26
0.37
9.50
3.17
0.53
9.50
3.17
0.53
32%
40%
43%
Buy
Hold
Buy
-28%
-28%
-29%
-11%
-11%
-12%
49.0
28.0
10.0
53.7
28.5
12.3
59.0
29.5
12.8
1.0
1.1
0.2
71.7
39.0
7.3
77.4
39.7
6.5
84.8
41.1
6.8
-8.6%
-9.2%
-
8%
2%
-11%
10%
4%
4%
8%
3%
-1%
64.0
26.0
2.5
68.0
26.0
3.0
74.0
27.0
3.4
9.4%
11.5%
8.2%
100
100
100
9.3
5.7
5.6
8.5
5.5
5.4
1.2
1.9
-4.5
0.94
0.57
0.57
0.92
0.60
0.59
6.9
4.6
4.8
5.7
4.0
4.2
5.2
5.3
2.7
20.4%
13.8%
11.0%
0.8
0.9
2.3
314
99
1,705
193
1,165
144
2,020
167
53
3,255
219
Sep 10
Jun 11
Dec 10
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 10
Feb 11
Dec 10
Jul 11
Jun 11
1.97
11.55
1.59
1.42
5.07
1.21
3.60
5.15
0.40
13.64
0.81
3.02
13.17
2.72
2.17
7.50
1.38
5.25
6.75
1.00
16.06
1.15
3.02
14.63
2.72
2.17
7.50
1.38
5.25
6.75
1.00
20.07
1.15
53%
14%
71%
53%
48%
14%
46%
31%
150%
18%
42%
Buy
Hold
Buy
Buy
Buy
Hold
Hold
Hold
Buy
Buy
Buy
-31%
-27%
-24%
-2%
-35%
-9%
-28%
-18%
-45%
8%
-25%
-14%
-10%
-6%
15%
-18%
8%
-11%
-1%
-28%
26%
-8%
30.9
7.8
142.1
22.9
111.5
15.9
155.0
13.8
8.9
161.2
25.8
32.7
9.2
185.9
36.4
120.2
16.2
190.5
15.1
8.7
226.3
29.6
35.9
10.0
224.7
27.5 130.7
16.8
211.2
16.1
12.0
215.6
32.8
0.7
1.0
1.3
0.6
1.2
0.8
1.3
0.8
0.5
1.1
1.1
19.3
91.7
16.7
16.8
48.1
13.2
26.6
42.7
8.3
67.5
9.6
20.4
106.9
18.0
29.2
51.6
13.4
32.4
46.5
6.6
94.8
11.0
22.4
114.3
20.5
22.0
55.8
13.9
35.9
49.2
9.1
90.3
12.2
-13.6%
-6.6%
-9.3%
6.8%
-7.1%
11.7%
-4.8%
1.6%
-6.6%
-2.3%
6%
17%
8%
74%
7%
2%
22%
9%
-20%
40%
14%
10%
7%
14%
-25%
8%
4%
11%
6%
38%
-5%
11%
8%
10%
12%
0%
7%
4%
13%
6%
17%
7%
10%
28.0
100.0
6.5
15.0
43.0
13.0
23.5
35.0
3.5
40.0
7.0
17.5
96.0
7.2
32.0
47.0
13.4
27.5
35.0
3.5
46.0
7.6
20.0
100.0
9.2
18.4
50.0
13.9
30.5
39.0
4.8
52.0
8.6
8.9%
8.3%
7.4%
22.5%
9.3%
11.1%
7.6%
6.8%
8.9%
3.4%
9.3%
100
100
0
100
0
100
100
100
0
100
100
9.6
10.8
8.2
4.9
9.8
9.0
11.1
11.1
6.0
14.4
7.4
8.8
10.1
7.1
6.4
9.1
8.6
10.0
10.5
4.3
15.1
6.7
1.1
1.0
0.7
-16.7
1.4
2.2
0.8
1.7
0.3
2.0
0.8
0.84
1.09
0.80
0.49
0.99
0.91
0.97
1.12
0.52
1.45
0.75
0.88
1.10
0.78
0.70
0.99
0.94
1.01
1.14
0.44
1.64
0.73
5.3
7.0
6.3
3.0
6.2
4.6
6.3
7.4
3.9
4.7
5.7
5.3
6.5
6.2
3.0
6.1
4.4
6.3
6.7
3.4
4.0
4.9
5.9
6.3
3.6
7.6
1.6
5.5
3.7
1.6
1.1
4.8
11.5%
16.5%
20.9%
37.1%
13.5%
17.9%
63.3%
13.3%
19.7%
7.9%
10.5%
1,105
116
461
648
1,620
752
307
1,441
286
145
Dec 10
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Dec 10
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
2.03
1.63
6.74
11.31
16.21
6.92
0.70
3.84
1.88
1.93
2.60
2.50
7.00
13.56
25.10
7.60
1.16
4.12
2.50
2.50
2.60
2.50
7.00
15.05
25.10
7.60
1.16
4.12
2.50
2.50
28%
53%
4%
20%
55%
10%
66%
7%
33%
30%
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Hold
Buy
Hold
Buy
Buy
-32%
-4%
7%
-13%
-35%
-5%
-22%
-1%
-6%
-20%
-15%
13%
25%
4%
-17%
12%
-5%
17%
11%
-3%
54.4
8.6
21.4
52.1
170.7
34.1
25.6
76.0
27.9
11.3
56.6
12.0
25.0
58.2
188.0
40.4
35.5
88.0
37.3
12.6
94.6 14.8
27.7
64.0
204.0
46.7
38.5
103.8
41.2
14.0
1.8
1.3
1.2
0.8
0.7
1.0
1.6
0.8
0.7
1.3
10.2
14.0
31.3
90.0
169.6
33.6
6.6
21.3
18.3
14.5
10.5
16.9
36.6
100.6
186.8
38.9
8.1
23.4
23.6
17.0
17.4
20.7
40.4
109.7
202.7
43.1
8.8
27.6
25.5
19.5
-5.3%
5.7%
3.7%
3.3%
0.4%
-1.9%
-2.6%
-5.1%
0.0%
3%
20%
17%
12%
10%
16%
22%
10%
29%
17%
66%
23%
11%
9%
9%
11%
9%
18%
8%
15%
28%
19%
14%
8%
9%
12%
12%
14%
16%
14%
5.0
5.0
21.9
73.0
84.0
28.3
3.0
20.7
5.5
11.0
5.4
8.4
25.6
86.0
93.4
31.3
3.8
23.5
7.5
12.4
8.7
10.3
28.3
93.0
101.4
36.0
4.4
27.6
8.6
13.7
2.7%
5.2%
3.8%
7.6%
5.8%
4.5%
5.4%
6.1%
4.0%
6.4%
0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0
100
19.3
9.6
18.4
11.2
8.7
17.8
8.7
16.4
8.0
11.3
11.7
7.9
16.7
10.3
8.0
16.0
8.0
13.9
7.4
9.9
0.7
0.5
1.3
1.3
1.0
1.5
0.7
1.1
0.5
0.8
1.68
0.97
1.86
1.13
0.88
1.54
0.87
1.65
0.80
1.14
1.18
0.86
1.81
1.12
0.87
1.62
0.87
1.51
0.80
1.07
14.6
6.2
12.6
7.7
5.2
13.4
5.5
11.7
5.7
7.1
10.5
5.8
9.8
6.5
4.4
11.5
4.6
10.6
5.4
6.8
8.4
32.5
7.0
4.3
3.3
33.0
13.1
1.9
5.5
26.7%
28.6%
22.9%
27.4%
23.9%
40.4%
8.0%
36.3%
17.8%
34.1%
Commercial Services & Supplies

CAB
CPB
CND
CLQ
COF
CUS
CLH
DCG
MIN
PRG
RUL
SAI
SLM
SKE
SPT
TOX
TPI
TWO
WLL
Cabcharge
Campbell Bros
Clarius Group
Clean TeQ
Coffey
Customers
Collection Hse
Decmil Group
Mineral Resources
Programmed Group
Runge
SAI Global
Salmat
Skilled Group
Spotless Group
Tox Free
Transpacific Industries
Talent2
Wellcom Group
Construction
ABC
BKW
CLO
EAL
MAH
MND
NWH
Adel Brighton
Brickworks
Clough
E&A
Macmahon
Monadelphous
NRW Holdings
Consumer products
GUD
MCP
SYM
GUD Holdings
McPherson's
Symex
31.6% Matthew Nicholas

21.6% Josephine Little
52.5% Josephine Little
BTT
EQT
HGG
IMF
IFL
MOC
PTM
TRU
TSM
SOL
WHG
BT Investment Mgt
Equity Trustees
Henderson Group
IMF Aust
IOOF Holdings
Mortgage Choice
Platinum Asset Mgt
The Trust Company
ThinkSmart
WH Soul Pattinson & Co
WHK Group
1.4
0.4
0.0
0.8
1.1
1.5
1.4
0.3
0.2
8.2
0.8
-22.9%
-11.1%
-0.8%
-37.7%
-20.4%
-40.6%
-96.7%
-6.6%
-8.5%
-53.4%
14.2%
Julian Guido
Scott Murdoch
Julian Guido
Julian Guido
Julian Guido
Julian Guido
Julian Guido
Scott Murdoch
Matthew Nicholas
Roger Leaning
Julian Guido
1.8
0.5
0.4
0.0
0.8
2.6
0.2
0.7
0.7
2.2
102.8%
-22.0%
-14.3%
-1.0%
-30.8%
209.7%
-3.4%
44.7%
20.6%
-105.2%
Michael Nolan
Belinda Moore
Josephine Little
Alexandra Clarke
Belinda Moore
Julian Guido
Belinda Moore
Julian Guido
Julian Guido
Belinda Moore
Consumer Services
ALL
CTD
DMP
FWD
FLT
IVC
JET
NVT
SGH
WEB
Aristocrat
Corp Trave
Domino's Pizza
Fleetwood
Flight Centre
Invocare
Jetset
Navitas
Slater & Gordon
Webjet

32

5 October 2011
Market
cap
(A$m)
Last
year
end
Price
(A$)
Target FV (A$)
Up/
price
down
(A$)
Rec YTD -Abs.

12m
YTD Rel.
Earnings
Quality *
EPS ANALYSIS
IBES 3m
EPS growth
EPS (pre goodwill)
revisions
DIVIDEND ANALYSIS
Div yield
DPS (c)
EPS
CAGR
Div
frank
(%)
PE (x)
(pre goodwill)
PEG
VALUATION
PE rel
(pre goodwill)
EV/
EV / P/ NTA
EBIT (x) EBITDA (x)
Actual
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
Actual
Actual
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
12m fwd
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
3 yr
Actual
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
0.6
0.2
1.5
1.2
0.8
1.3
0.9
1.4
B/SHEET ANALYSIS
ROE
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
1.1%
0.4%
12.0%
-1.5%
4.8% 10.7%
8.8%
9.7%
6.0
5.5
1.1
5.9
6.6
1.7
1.5
0.8
42.8%
44.7%
25.7%
28.3%
-31.6%
36.3%
28.7%
17.9%
Belinda Moore
Belinda Moore
Belinda Moore
Belinda Moore
Belinda Moore
Belinda Moore
Matthew Nicholas
Belinda Moore
10.2
0.0% 174.3 -54.7%
0.3
3.8%
2.2 -12.9%
5.9
36.5%
13.1 -93.2%
46.9 -51.9%
2.6 -33.6%
16.3 -267.1%
5.5 -21.7%
5.6
n.a.
2.2
n.a.
0.3
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
-84.0%
-11.9%
26.7%
-97.1%
14.8%
-60.2%
-88.9%
-25.9%
-86.8%
-89.2%
Scott Power
Scott Power
Scott Power
Scott Power
Scott Power
Scott Power
Dr Derek Jellinek
Scott Power
Scott Power
Scott Power
0.3
3.3
2.5
n.a.
1.8
-3.2%
42.0%
94.5%
-865.2%
-89.8%
William Allott
William Allott
Alexandra Clarke
William Allott
Alexandra Clarke
0.9
0.6
1.8
2.7
0.5
0.8
1.0
n.a.
0.5
0.6
0.3
n.a.
0.5
1.1
29.1%
-41.3%
45.1%
-196.1%
-21.1%
-53.0%
32.5%
-7.5%
-13.8%
-8.2%
-16.2%
-42.4%
-20.8%
-51.2%
Nick Harris
Ashley Wallace
Nick Harris
Nick Harris
Julian Guido
Julian Guido
Nick Harris
Nick Harris
Julian Guido
Belinda Moore
Julian Guido
Scott Power
Julian Guido
Nick Harris
Food Beverage & Tobacco

AAC
ELD
GNC
MSF
PAG
RIC
TGR
WCB
Aust Agricultural Co
Elders
GrainCorp
MSF Sugar
PrimeAg Australia
Ridley Corp
Tassal Group
Warrnambool Cheese
406
130
1,452
208
298
322
215
213
Dec 10
Sep 10
Sep 10
Dec 10
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
1.30
0.29
7.32
3.01
1.12
1.04
1.47
3.95
1.55
0.31
9.25
4.06
1.25
1.33
1.30
4.05
2.07
0.31
9.25
4.06
1.57
1.33
1.30
4.05
19%
7%
26%
35%
12%
28%
-11%
3%
Hold
Hold
Buy
Buy
Hold
Buy
Hold
Hold
-8%
-50%
11%
-12%
-16%
-15%
-14%
13%
9%
-33%
28%
6%
1%
2%
4%
30%
0.9
3.0
80.2
6.9
5.9
29.3
21.6
18.5
7.2
3.6
157.7
-2.5
17.4
31.5
25.0
15.0
9.6 8.8 146.6

11.1
20.9 33.8
27.4
15.0
5.0
3.8
0.7
2.3
0.2
0.8
1.2
1.5
0.3
0.7
39.4
13.5
3.9
9.5
14.8
38.5
2.5
0.8
78.5
-3.6
6.8
10.2
17.1
27.9
3.1
2.0
73.9
16.1
7.9
11.0
18.6
27.9
3.6%
-24.6%
0.8%
4.1%
-13.2%
-0.3%
-1.8%
-16.0%
627%
12%
99%
-127%
73%
7%
16%
-28%
23%
148%
-6%
16%
7%
9%
0%
88%
12%
11%
24%
6%
11%
-7%
0.0
0.0
30.0
6.5
1.0
7.5
2.0
15.0
0.0
0.0
39.2
5.9
2.7
7.8
6.0
11.2
0.0
0.0
37.0
8.0
3.1
8.0
7.0
11.1
0.0%
0.0%
5.4%
1.9%
2.4%
7.4%
4.1%
2.8%
0
0
100
100
100
25
100
100
52.3
36.6
9.3
16.5
10.2
8.6
14.2
42.3
14.8
9.9
18.8
14.3
9.5
7.9
14.2
0.4
0.7
0.7
1.6
0.8
-2.2
4.54
3.18
0.81
1.67
1.03
0.87
1.43
4.27
1.49
1.00
1.89
1.55
1.03
0.86
1.54
17.4
12.8
7.2
199.1
8.8
8.6
7.5
11.0
14.4
7.6
5.5
30.1
7.8
6.7
5.5
6.9
494
63
107
147
502
65
1,126
167
147
74
Jun 11
Jun 11
Aug 10
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 10
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
3.10
0.33
0.22
0.82
30.00
0.48
8.22
0.68
1.17
0.44
4.59
1.06
0.33
1.98
29.86
1.14
2.08
1.07
2.95
0.95
4.59
1.06
0.36
2.47
29.86
1.50
2.08
2.89
2.95
0.95
48%
221%
50%
141%
0%
137%
-75%
57%
152%
116%
Buy
Buy
Hold
Buy
Hold
Buy
Buy
Hold
Buy
Buy
-12%
-48%
-50%
-17%
7%
-41%
76%
-77%
-16%
-38%
5%
-30%
-33%
0%
24%
-23%
93%
-60%
1%
-21%
57.1
-13.4
22.6
-28.1
27.3
-14.8
-13.2
-45.8
-25.6
-5.3
5.5
-10.0
21.6
-9.3
30.4
-13.2
-14.5
-22.5
-22.5
-3.3
28.1
14.8
25.7
20.0
33.4
4.5
-1.6
-15.0
4.2
6.4
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.5
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.8
34.4
-7.0
5.3
-15.7
162.9
-9.5
-9.6
-20.0
-20.5
-3.4
3.3
-4.5
4.4
-5.2
181.8
-8.4
-9.4
-9.1
-15.6
-2.0
16.9
6.7
5.3
11.2
199.7
2.9
-1.0
-6.1
2.9
3.8
-74.0%
-7.3%
3.8%
-119.1%
-
-90%
55%
-16%
202%
12%
12%
2%
120%
31%
73%
415%
19%
10%
800%
50%
-
16%
51%
5%
4%
11%
32%
-24%
-9%
-29%
39%
60.0
0.0
2.5
0.0
122.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
2.0
0.0
136.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.0
0.0
2.0
0.0
150.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3%
0.0%
9.1%
0.0%
4.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0
0
100
100
100
100
0
0
0
0
94.3
5.0
16.5
-
18.3
5.0
4.2
7.3
15.0
16.7
39.9
11.6
6.0
1.0
1.5
-
9.51
0.43
1.66
-
1.99
0.54
0.42
0.80
1.63
1.81
4.34
1.27
95.9
-6.0
5.7
-7.1
11.4
-4.5
-88.6
-6.4
-6.1
-15.1
60.0
-6.1
3.8
-11.7
10.4
-4.7
-88.7
-7.4
-6.1
-15.1
Aust Infrastructure Fund

Auckland Int'l Airport
Lindsay
Macquarie Atlas
Seymour Whyte
1,102
3,003
28
579
132
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Dec 10
Jun 11
1.77
2.32
0.16
1.28
1.70
1.92
2.20
0.20
1.88
2.70
1.92
1.87
0.20
1.88
2.70
8%
-5%
27%
47%
59%
Hold
Hold
Buy
Buy
Buy
-6%
6%
-16%
-16%
-23%
11%
24%
1%
1%
-5%
212.3
92.6
1.4
-281.7
12.2
160.6
106.2
3.2
-57.0
14.8
166.5
115.5
5.2
108.5 17.9
0.2
1.0
0.9
0.0
0.7
34.2
7.0
0.6
-62.3
15.6
25.9
8.0
1.5
-12.6
19.0
26.8
8.7
2.4
24.0
22.9
-1.3%
0.0%
-93.5%
-10.4%
-24%
15%
131%
394%
22%
4%
9%
62%
21%
-8%
11%
79%
-57%
21%
10.0
8.7
0.7
0.0
8.0
10.5
9.5
1.0
0.0
11.0
11.0
10.5
1.6
7.0
11.0
5.9%
4.1%
6.0%
0.0%
6.5%
50
100
100
0
100
6.9
22.9
10.8
8.9
6.6
20.7
6.7
5.3
7.4
-0.8
2.0
0.1
0.4
0.69
2.31
1.09
0.90
0.72
2.26
0.73
0.54
0.81
5.8
15.4
10.6
-220.2
4.5
5.8
12.4
3.9
-244.6
4.2
0.6
1.2
0.8
3.0
ASG Group
Carsales
CSG Ltd
Data#3
DWS Adv Business Soln
IRESS
Melbourne IT
NEXTDC
Oakton
Onthehouse
Reckon
Silex Systems
SMS Mgt & Technology
Technology One
131
1,098
300
175
157
891
113
217
160
32
339
388
331
313
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Dec 10
Dec 10
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Dec 10
Jun 11
Jun 11
Sep 10
0.81
4.69
1.05
11.21
1.18
6.82
1.40
1.51
1.71
0.39
2.54
2.40
4.88
1.03
1.30
5.38
1.20
14.40
1.42
8.70
1.50
2.44
2.43
1.50
2.37
8.51
6.82
1.09
1.30
5.38
1.39
14.40
1.42
8.70
1.50
2.44
2.43
1.50
2.37
8.51
6.82
1.09
61%
15%
14%
28%
20%
28%
7%
61%
42%
285%
-7%
255%
40%
6%
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Hold
Hold
Hold
Buy
Buy
Buy
Hold
Buy
Buy
Hold
-32%
0%
-30%
-8%
-17%
-22%
-26%
-14%
-28%
-15%
17%
-12%
9%
0%
-5%
-9%
4%
-11%
9%
-59%
-27%
7%
26%
-41%
-9%
25%
15.7
58.2
40.6
15.0
17.4
58.4
16.1
-1.7
16.8
-1.8
15.7
-31.5
29.8
17.8
18.7
67.1
44.3
16.5
19.1
63.0
13.2
-8.3
19.6
2.0
18.1
-15.1
35.5
20.5
21.7
76.0
45.5
17.6
20.7
75.2
15.4
0.3 23.4
3.8
21.0
-29.7
39.6
23.7
0.9
1.0
0.3
0.3
0.8
1.2
0.8
0.5
0.7
0.4
1.2
1.2
0.7
1.4
9.7
24.9
15.6
97.5
13.1
46.3
20.2
-1.7
18.0
-19.1
11.8
-19.5
44.3
5.9
10.7
28.5
15.6
107.4
14.4
48.6
16.4
-5.8
20.8
2.4
13.6
-9.4
52.3
6.8
12.0
32.0
15.9
114.4
15.6
57.0
18.9
0.2
24.8
4.6
15.8
-18.4
58.2
7.8
-1.7%
1.9%
-8.1%
-0.6%
-1.4%
-3.3%
-15.7%
-8.0%
-1.5%
-143.4%
-4.5%
-1.2%
11%
14%
0%
10%
10%
5%
-19%
-70%
16%
16%
108%
18%
14%
12%
12%
2%
7%
9%
17%
16%
19%
93%
16%
-49%
11%
15%
9%
12%
3%
7%
8%
10%
-2%
83%
16%
-29%
13%
31%
13%
15%
7.5
19.9
6.0
77.0
12.0
41.5
15.0
0.0
8.5
0.0
8.0
0.0
30.0
5.7
8.0
22.8
6.0
85.0
11.0
39.0
11.0
0.0
16.0
0.6
8.5
0.0
35.5
4.8
9.0
25.6
6.1
90.0
12.0
45.5
13.0
0.0
19.5
1.2
9.5
0.0
39.5
5.5
9.9%
4.9%
5.7%
7.6%
9.3%
5.7%
7.9%
0.0%
9.4%
1.5%
3.3%
0.0%
7.3%
4.6%
100
23
100
100
100
100
100
0
100
0
90
100
100
100
7.6
16.4
6.8
10.4
8.2
14.0
8.6
8.2
16.3
18.7
9.3
15.2
6.7
14.6
6.6
9.8
7.6
12.0
7.4
6.9
8.4
16.1
8.4
13.2
0.8
1.4
2.2
1.5
1.0
1.3
-4.9
0.5
-0.6
1.4
0.7
1.0
0.76
1.66
0.68
1.05
0.83
1.22
0.74
0.83
1.64
1.62
0.94
1.32
0.73
1.59
0.72
1.07
0.82
1.21
0.75
75.44
0.75
0.92
1.62
0.91
1.33
5.7
11.1
7.0
4.6
5.3
9.4
7.5
-17.2
5.4
8.3
13.1
-15.9
6.3
10.6
4.4
10.8
5.5
4.4
5.3
8.8
4.8
-24.8
4.9
3.4
9.8
-28.0
6.2
8.7
22.7
68.4
5.8
4.4
11.7
1.5
5.2
12.1
39.9
3.2
7.6
5.9
341
Jun 11
6.15
6.46
6.46
5%
Buy
20%
37%
23.9
26.8
29.5
1.2
43.6
48.4
53.1
0.8%
11%
10%
8%
25.5
30.0
32.0
4.9%
12.7
11.6
1.6
1.47
1.43
16.0
14.2
4.0
16.1% -
3.3
513
1,474
1,354
720
245
1,513
308
904
Dec 10
Dec 10
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Dec 10
Aug 10
0.83
1.16
2.41
1.02
0.67
11.60
0.86
0.87
1.37
1.37
2.68
1.50
0.72
11.25
1.44
0.95
1.53
1.20
2.98
1.79
0.80
11.77
1.44
1.06
65%
18%
11%
47%
7%
-3%
67%
9%
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Hold
Hold
Buy
Hold
-57%
22%
-23%
-47%
3%
-6%
-19%
-38%
-40%
39%
-6%
-30%
20%
11%
-2%
-21%
103.1
54.1
94.8
68.6
27.2
68.7
38.7
96.9
83.1
84.4
92.7
98.9
28.8
80.2
40.6
78.1
96.4
101.6
96.6
110.3
29.2
95.0
43.1
80.6
1.2
1.0
1.3
0.6
0.9
1.0
2.0
1.0
17.2
4.2
16.6
14.8
7.4
53.1
10.8
9.3
13.5
6.5
16.5
14.0
7.9
61.1
11.4
7.5
15.6
7.8
17.2
15.6
8.0
71.3
12.3
7.7
-13.6%
-8.7%
-1.2%
-3.4%
-2.0%
-2.2%
-2.8%
-16.3%
-21%
55%
-1%
-6%
6%
15%
6%
-19%
15%
20%
4%
11%
1%
17%
8%
3%
0%
34%
5%
7%
3%
15%
6%
4%
12.0
0.0
16.5
10.0
4.5
26.0
6.5
11.0
8.1
0.0
16.5
9.1
5.5
30.5
7.4
5.0
9.3
0.0
16.5
10.9
5.6
42.8
8.6
5.8
9.8%
0.0%
6.8%
8.9%
8.2%
2.6%
8.6%
5.8%
30
0
0
100
100
100
100
100
6.1
17.9
14.6
7.3
8.5
19.0
7.5
11.6
5.3
14.9
14.0
6.5
8.4
16.3
7.0
11.2
-42.9
0.5
3.1
1.1
3.3
1.3
1.2
3.0
0.53
1.56
1.47
0.73
0.86
1.92
0.65
1.00
0.54
1.50
1.52
0.71
0.91
1.77
0.70
1.13
6.2
14.1
-228.6
6.7
7.2
12.2
6.3
9.4
6.1
7.7
6.8
5.8
5.9
11.0
5.7
8.0
4.2
9.6
325.8
-
9.2%
-40.3%
28.3%
6.5%
18.3%
37.4% 11.1%
8.7%
2.9
1.9
n.a.
2.7
2.0
1.4
1.1
2.4
Healthcare
ACR
ACL
API
BTA
BKL
IPD
MSB
PXS
QRX
TIS
Acrux
Alchemia
Aust Pharma
Biota
Blackmores
ImpediMed
Mesoblast
Pharmaxis
QRxPharma
Tissue Therap
Infrastructure
AIX
AIA.NZ
LAU
MQA
SWL
8.9% 5.4%
6.2%
20.5%
36.1% -
IT
ASZ
CRZ
CSV
DTL
DWS
IRE
MLB
NXT
OKN
OTH
RKN
SLX
SMX
TNE
16.8%
56.2%
14.3%
51.4%
32.0%
46.4%
14.2%
-6.6%
18.0%
3.2%
34.9%
-10.2%
32.0%
30.9%
Insurance
AUB
Austbrokers
-37.5% Julian Guido
Media
APN
AUN
CMJ
SXL
PRT
REA
SGN
TEN
APN
Austar United Comms
Consolidated Media
Southern Cross Media
Prime Media
REA Group
STW Group
Ten Network
59.3%
-280.9%
-25.3%
39.1%
75.8%
-70.4%
20.1%
46.8%
Fraser McLeish
Fraser McLeish
Fraser McLeish
Ashley Wallace
Ashley Wallace
Ashley Wallace
Matthew Nicholas
Fraser McLeish

33

5 October 2011
Market
cap
(A$m)
Last
year
end
Price
(A$)
Target FV (A$)
Up/
price
down
(A$)
Rec YTD -Abs.

12m
YTD Rel.
Earnings
Quality *
EPS ANALYSIS
IBES 3m
EPS growth
EPS (pre goodwill)
revisions
DIVIDEND ANALYSIS
Div yield
DPS (c)
EPS
CAGR
Div
frank
(%)
PE (x)
(pre goodwill)
PEG
VALUATION
PE rel
(pre goodwill)
EV/
EV / P/ NTA
EBIT (x) EBITDA (x)
B/SHEET ANALYSIS
ROE
Actual
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
Actual
Actual
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
12m fwd
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
3 yr
Actual
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Other Capital Goods

AJL
ALS
AAX
ASB
ASL
BOL
BKN
CDD
EGN
EHL
GWA
HST
HIL
LDW
NFK
RFX
RQL
SDM
WTP
AJ Lucas
Alesco
Ausenco
Austal
Ausdrill
BOOM Logistics
Bradken
Cardno
Engenco
Emeco
GWA Group
Hastie Group
Hills
Ludowici
Norfolk Group
Redflow
Resource Equip
Sedgman
Watpac
89
126
279
414
811
105
1,010
497
103
593
606
126
253
89
165
79
79
362
224
Jun 11
May 11
Dec 10
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Dec 10
Mar 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
1.35
1.34
2.27
2.20
2.69
0.22
6.24
4.59
0.08
0.94
2.01
0.09
1.02
3.36
1.04
0.95
0.38
1.73
1.22
2.28
1.81
3.97
3.75
3.80
0.49
9.85
7.07
0.15
1.29
2.16
0.12
1.19
4.92
1.65
2.04
0.99
1.93
1.96
2.28
1.81
6.08
3.75
3.80
0.49
9.85
7.07
0.15
1.29
2.16
0.12
1.70
4.92
1.65
2.04
1.28
1.93
1.96
69%
35%
75%
70%
41%
122%
58%
54%
93%
37%
7%
33%
17%
46%
59%
114%
160%
12%
60%
Hold
Hold
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Hold
Hold
Hold
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Hold
Buy
-44%
-50%
-26%
-37%
-13%
-42%
-31%
-17%
-47%
-13%
-35%
-89%
-45%
-32%
-18%
-44%
-34%
-24%
-33%
-27%
-33%
-9%
-20%
4%
-25%
-13%
0%
-29%
4%
-17%
-72%
-28%
-14%
-1%
-27%
-17%
-7%
-16%
-8.5
15.6
0.8
40.5
78.5
5.4
90.1
58.8
7.2
56.3
63.4
18.7
24.7
11.6
21.1
-7.3
12.2
28.9
16.8
6.2
14.7
22.9
49.7
96.7
17.4
120.3
67.7
18.0
70.5
56.6
23.6
32.7
13.5
24.4
-10.8
13.4
36.7
28.3
10.4
18.9
35.5
50.2
116.0
21.6
143.9
70.3
21.7 78.2
60.4
31.8 36.6
16.7
27.9
3.4
14.4
37.9
35.0
1.4
1.2
1.8
3.3
0.7
0.9
0.2
1.0
1.5
1.2
1.1
1.8
0.3
0.5
1.1
0.9
0.9
0.6
1.3
-12.5
16.5
0.7
21.5
29.0
1.2
63.5
55.4
0.6
8.9
21.0
7.4
9.9
44.7
13.3
-8.8
5.6
13.8
9.2
9.0
15.5
18.6
26.4
32.1
3.7
72.3
62.6
1.4
11.2
18.8
1.7
13.4
46.0
15.4
-13.0
5.7
17.5
15.4
15.2
20.0
28.9
26.7
38.5
4.6
84.0
64.5
1.7
12.4
20.0
2.3
15.3
57.0
17.5
4.1
6.1
18.1
18.9
-24.5%
-48.4%
-5.4%
-14.7%
2.4%
17.7%
0.8%
0.0%
-0.7%
-17.1%
-50.2%
-6.9%
12.3%
-4.5%
-6%
2719%
23%
11%
219%
14%
13%
152%
25%
-11%
-77%
35%
3%
16%
-32%
2%
27%
67%
68%
29%
55%
1%
20%
24%
16%
3%
20%
11%
7%
35%
14%
24%
14%
8%
3%
23%
17%
14%
12%
13%
62%
17%
7%
52%
14%
1%
-27%
23%
13%
14%
9%
5%
11%
31%
0.0
14.0
0.0
6.0
12.0
0.0
39.5
34.0
0.0
10.0
18.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
7.0
6.0
0.0
9.0
9.3
7.0
13.0
0.0
45.0
36.0
0.0
6.0
18.0
0.0
11.0
23.0
4.0
0.0
0.0
8.0
10.0
0.0
13.0
14.4
8.0
14.5
0.0
52.5
38.5
0.0
6.5
18.0
0.3
13.0
29.0
6.0
0.0
1.0
8.5
12.0
0.0%
6.7%
4.1%
3.2%
4.8%
0.0%
7.2%
7.8%
0.0%
6.4%
9.0%
0.0%
10.8%
6.8%
3.8%
0.0%
0.0%
4.6%
8.2%
100
100
75
100
100
100
100
60
0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0
100
100
15.0
8.6
12.2
8.3
8.4
6.0
8.6
7.3
7.3
8.4
10.7
6.1
7.6
7.3
6.8
6.6
9.9
7.9
8.9
6.7
7.9
8.2
7.0
4.9
7.4
7.1
6.0
7.6
10.0
4.5
6.7
5.9
5.9
23.4
6.1
9.5
6.5
0.9
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.1
0.5
1.0
0.1
0.6
7.6
-0.2
0.3
0.6
0.5
1.4
0.9
0.3
1.51
0.87
1.06
0.84
0.88
0.61
0.87
0.74
0.58
0.85
1.08
0.54
0.77
0.63
0.68
0.67
1.06
0.80
0.97
0.73
0.79
0.90
0.77
0.53
0.81
0.77
0.52
0.83
1.09
0.43
0.72
0.59
0.65
2.55
0.67
1.10
0.70
8.3
6.7
7.8
5.3
6.2
6.3
7.1
5.8
3.8
7.5
8.2
4.8
6.6
5.8
3.8
-6.5
4.9
6.6
6.4
4.4
4.5
5.7
4.3
3.8
3.3
5.7
5.1
2.8
3.6
6.8
3.8
4.8
4.6
3.1
-7.8
3.9
4.9
4.2
1.0
1.4
3.8
1.2
1.2
0.4
1.8
0.9
1.3
10.1
1.9
0.7
1.3
2.9
7.7
1.1
2.6
0.8
3.0%
3.2%
9.5%
15.7%
13.7%
5.7%
16.6%
18.1%
9.6%
11.4%
12.8%
6.9%
8.5%
13.9%
24.7%
-61.9%
15.1%
21.5%
9.1%
2.4
1.6
0.1
0.8
0.4
1.8
1.7
0.7
0.4
1.3
1.6
1.8
1.5
1.4
0.5
n.a.
0.4
0.7
1.0
49.6%
16.3%
-1.0%
-20.0%
11.9%
40.3%
56.2%
19.5%
7.5%
55.4%
41.7%
29.4%
27.7%
36.2%
-22.9%
-35.1%
9.7%
-27.1%
21.6%
Alexandra Clarke
Julian Guido
Roger Leaning
Julian Guido
Matthew Nicholas
Matthew Nicholas
Matthew Nicholas
Roger Leaning
Alexandra Clarke
Matthew Nicholas
Julian Guido
Julian Guido
Matthew Nicholas
Roger Leaning
Julian Guido
Scott Power
Alexandra Clarke
Roger Leaning
Scott Murdoch
Ardent Leisure
Cedar Woods
Cromwell
Devine
FKP Property
Peet
Sunland Group
340
222
617
133
556
368
161
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
1.07
3.59
0.64
0.21
0.47
1.16
0.74
1.54
5.24
0.76
0.28
0.88
2.00
0.70
1.54
5.24
0.76
0.28
0.88
2.00
0.70
44%
46%
20%
33%
88%
73%
-5%
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Hold
6%
3%
-16%
-25%
-45%
-42%
-1%
23%
20%
1%
-8%
-28%
-25%
16%
39.4
28.1
65.3
20.2
121.0
44.0
17.9
43.2
34.6
71.5
21.0
125.4
39.6
21.3
47.2
38.4
74.0
23.5
134.9
44.4 22.1
1.0
1.4
1.0
3.6
0.4
1.3
2.1
12.5
45.8
7.1
3.2
10.3
14.5
7.8
13.6
55.2
7.4
3.3
10.6
12.5
10.0
14.5
60.8
7.6
3.6
11.3
14.0
10.9
-10.8%
3.4%
-3.4%
-9.5%
-6.4%
-12.1%
-2.3%
8%
20%
4%
3%
3%
-14%
29%
7%
10%
3%
10%
7%
12%
8%
8%
15%
6%
10%
6%
1%
15%
11.5
23.0
7.0
2.0
3.0
8.5
0.0
12.2
28.0
7.0
2.1
3.3
7.5
0.0
13.1
30.0
7.1
2.3
3.4
8.5
3.0
11.4%
7.8%
10.9%
10.1%
7.0%
6.4%
0.0%
0
100
18
100
70
100
100
7.9
6.5
8.7
6.4
4.4
9.3
7.4
7.4
5.9
8.4
5.8
4.1
8.3
6.8
1.0
0.4
1.6
0.7
0.7
8.1
0.5
0.80
0.66
0.87
0.65
0.45
0.94
0.75
0.80
0.64
0.91
0.63
0.45
0.91
0.74
8.5
5.4
11.5
6.1
7.0
9.3
6.1
5.5
5.3
11.4
6.1
6.9
9.0
5.6
1.1
1.5
0.9
0.4
0.5
1.3
0.4
10.0%
24.9%
10.1%
6.0%
11.3%
14.8%
6.1%
1.8
1.0
6.4
2.8
4.0
3.7
1.1
37.4%
34.4%
109.2%
32.6%
49.1%
87.2%
11.5%
Josephine Little
Scott Murdoch
Fiona Buchanan
Scott Murdoch
Josephine Little
Matthew Nicholas
Fiona Buchanan
AP Eagers
ARB Corp
Automotive Holdings
Kathmandu
OrotonGroup
Pacific Brands
Premier Inv
Reject Shop
Retail Food
Ruralco
Super Retail
Thorn Group
Wotif.com
332
571
492
346
316
628
789
237
241
171
823
228
803
Dec 10
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jul 11
Jul 11
Jun 11
Jul 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Sep 10
Jun 11
Mar 11
Jun 11
10.55
7.88
1.90
1.73
7.74
0.68
5.09
9.14
2.23
3.10
6.38
1.56
3.80
14.60
8.65
2.23
2.20
8.87
0.92
5.58
12.70
2.65
3.80
7.75
2.15
4.18
14.60
8.65
2.22
2.20
8.86
0.92
5.58
12.70
2.83
3.80
7.75
2.15
4.18
38%
10%
17%
27%
15%
35%
10%
39%
19%
23%
21%
38%
10%
Buy
Hold
Hold
Buy
Buy
Buy
Hold
Hold
Hold
Buy
Buy
Buy
Hold
-16%
7%
-22%
27%
-10%
-31%
-18%
-34%
-23%
12%
5%
-21%
-24%
2%
24%
-5%
44%
7%
-13%
-1%
-17%
-6%
30%
22%
-4%
-6%
32.6
37.9
52.4
30.0
24.8
103.4
61.1
16.1
28.0
13.0
55.6
23.0
51.0
37.9
42.0
59.7
35.3
26.8
86.5
61.1
23.7
30.4
15.1
65.7
26.8
56.0
39.6
46.1
69.5
39.0
29.9
104.3
71.3
29.1
32.7
17.0
77.6
30.4
61.7
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.7
0.8
1.0
0.7
0.9
1.5
0.9
0.6
1.5
108.7
52.2
22.7
14.7
60.8
11.1
39.4
61.4
26.1
23.5
43.1
17.6
23.9
117.1
58.0
23.0
17.6
65.7
9.3
39.4
89.6
27.9
27.5
50.9
18.3
26.3
122.4
63.6
26.8
19.5
73.4
11.2
46.0
109.4
29.5
30.9
60.1
20.7
29.0
1.7%
4.9%
-7.8%
5.9%
4.7%
-10.0%
-10.4%
-6.3%
-4.5%
-7.4%
-3.2%
-6.1%
-7.5%
8%
11%
1%
20%
8%
-16%
0%
46%
7%
17%
18%
4%
10%
4%
10%
17%
11%
12%
20%
17%
22%
6%
12%
18%
13%
10%
6%
10%
8%
12%
9%
2%
8%
25%
5%
12%
15%
10%
10%
64.0
23.0
17.0
10.0
50.0
6.2
36.0
31.0
14.5
16.0
29.0
8.5
22.0
73.0
26.5
17.0
11.3
54.0
6.1
35.5
68.0
16.7
18.0
33.0
9.2
24.0
76.0
29.5
19.0
12.7
60.0
7.4
36.5
83.0
18.0
20.0
39.0
10.4
26.4
6.9%
3.4%
8.9%
5.2%
7.0%
9.0%
7.0%
7.4%
7.5%
5.8%
5.2%
5.9%
6.3%
100
100
100
0
0
100
0
100
100
100
100
100
100
9.0
13.6
8.3
9.8
11.8
7.3
12.9
10.2
8.0
11.3
12.5
8.5
14.4
8.6
12.4
7.1
8.7
10.5
6.0
11.1
8.4
7.5
10.0
10.6
7.5
13.1
1.4
1.4
1.0
0.8
1.3
3.3
1.6
0.4
1.5
0.9
0.8
0.9
1.4
0.78
1.37
0.83
0.99
1.19
0.73
1.30
1.03
0.81
0.98
1.26
0.86
1.46
0.87
1.35
0.77
0.95
1.15
0.65
1.21
0.91
0.82
1.01
1.15
0.82
1.43
6.6
9.3
8.0
6.9
8.2
5.2
7.5
7.5
6.1
6.2
8.8
5.6
8.3
5.9
8.3
6.5
6.2
6.8
4.7
6.0
5.6
5.9
5.4
7.0
5.0
7.7
1.3
4.1
1.8
13.9
10.6
4.8
2.3
3.6
2.0
3.8
2.2
144.6
10.3%
29.9%
13.0%
16.6%
82.7%
7.2%
4.9%
39.1%
18.2%
10.0%
20.9%
22.8%
60.8%
4.3
0.7
3.1
0.5
0.1
1.2
2.0
0.8
1.1
1.0
0.5
0.1
1.8
107.6%
-28.6%
95.3%
13.6%
18.0%
16.8%
-16.4%
61.9%
32.3%
23.0%
20.6%
-3.0%
-155.6%
Josephine Little
Matthew Nicholas
Josephine Little
Josephine Little
Josephine Little
Julian Guido
Julian Guido
Julian Guido
Scott Murdoch
Belinda Moore
Josephine Little
Scott Murdoch
Belinda Moore
184
774
336
157
50,461
4,971
1,090
Jun 11
Dec 10
Jun 11
Jun 11
Mar 11
Jun 11
Jul 11
0.77
0.06
2.20
7.50
3.17
2.60
1.39
0.97
0.13
3.20
13.51
3.16
2.45
1.64
0.97
0.13
3.38
15.01
2.48
1.90
1.64
26%
117%
45%
80%
0%
-6%
18%
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Hold
Hold
Buy
8%
-40%
-24%
-16%
4%
20%
-15%
26%
-23%
-7%
2%
21%
37%
3%
21.6
41.5
38.0
17.7
3,024.8
296.6
78.2
16.3
-90.6
44.4
18.6
2,925.7
363.8
111.9
18.9
28.0 49.2
22.5
3,196.6
383.9
127.1
0.8
0.0
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.0
0.8
9.0
0.3
25.0
84.5
19.0
15.5
10.1
6.8
-0.7
29.8
89.2
18.4
18.9
14.3
7.8
0.2
33.8
107.6
20.0
19.9
16.1
-32.0%
-125.6%
-8.0%
-7.9%
-3.8%
6.1%
-3.1%
-25%
-318%
19%
6%
-3%
22%
42%
16%
14%
21%
9%
6%
13%
-2%
37%
15%
9%
5%
13%
20%
4.8
0.0
12.0
22.0
18.0
4.5
3.5
0.0
15.0
24.0
21.0
7.0
4.1
0.0
17.0
28.0
23.0
8.0
4.5%
0.0%
6.8%
3.2%
5.0%
8.1%
5.0%
0
0
0
100
0
100
100
11.4
7.4
8.4
13.5
10.9
9.7
9.9
50.9
6.5
7.0
12.6
10.2
8.6
-7.3
0.5
0.9
2.8
0.8
0.5
1.15
0.75
0.85
1.36
1.10
0.98
1.07
2.79
0.71
0.76
1.37
1.11
0.94
7.5
-591.6
5.8
5.0
10.3
9.2
7.2
5.4
-591.6
3.5
2.9
7.5
4.1
4.9
2.0
1.0
1.9
3.4
4.2
18.1
11.6% -6.4%
18.8%
22.0% 19.9%
20.4%
0.2
n.a.
0.7
0.7
0.9
1.3
0.7
-4.8%
-0.3%
34.3%
-32.0%
17.8%
101.9%
29.8%
Alan Stuart
Alan Stuart
Alan Stuart
Nick Harris
Ian Martin
Alan Stuart
Nick Harris
605
165
103
674
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
3.08
1.25
0.94
0.31
3.58
2.13
1.26
0.41
3.58
2.13
1.58
0.45
16%
70%
35%
34%
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
2%
-15%
-15%
-28%
20%
2%
3%
-11%
43.2
19.5
17.4
-48.1
52.1
21.2
21.7
64.5
56.3
25.8
24.0
114.9
1.3
0.4
1.2
1.4
20.8
14.8
15.7
-2.2
23.5
16.0
19.7
2.9
25.2
19.5
21.9
5.2
0.4%
-4.9%
12.0%
-6.3%
13%
8%
26%
-
7%
22%
11%
79%
10%
14%
16%
50%
9.0
4.0
7.1
0.0
10.0
5.0
7.6
0.0
11.0
6.0
8.6
0.0
3.2%
4.0%
8.1%
0.0%
0
100
100
0
13.1
7.8
4.7
10.5
12.2
6.4
4.3
5.9
1.3
0.5
0.3
0.2
1.32
0.79
0.48
1.06
1.33
0.70
0.47
0.64
8.8
5.6
3.2
10.7
6.9
3.7
2.2
4.2
2.3
1.2
0.6
0.7
18.2%
9.8%
12.9% 6.7%
1.0
0.1
0.1
2.5
32.9%
1.0%
-1.8%
100.8%
Alexandra Clarke
Alexandra Clarke
Michael Newbold, CFA
Mark Williams
326
937
220
57
814
2,599
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 10
Dec 10
Mar 11
1.03
0.65
1.36
0.19
1.57
0.93
1.35
0.80
1.90
1.48
1.95
1.00
1.35
0.80
2.32
1.74
1.95
1.15
31%
23%
40%
677%
24%
8%
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Hold
-14%
25%
-31%
-50%
-7%
7%
3%
42%
-14%
-33%
10%
24%
-0.8
47.2
2.0
-14.8
35.6
252.9
11.0
63.0
31.5
-50.9
39.7
244.5
22.3
69.7
36.7
-52.8
26.8
251.2
1.6
1.4
6.6
0.4
1.6
0.9
-0.3
3.3
1.5
-5.1
7.1
9.0
3.5
4.1
19.4
-13.8
7.7
8.6
7.0
4.3
22.6
-11.9
5.1
8.7
-60.0%
8.1%
-14.5%
32.5%
-0.1%
25%
1224%
-63%
8%
-4%
102%
4%
17%
16%
-33%
1%
13%
-19%
0%
14.0
5.8
3.5
0.0
12.0
8.0
10.0
5.9
7.7
0.0
10.0
8.0
10.0
6.1
8.1
0.0
10.0
8.0
9.7%
9.1%
5.7%
0.0%
6.4%
8.6%
0
0
0
0
0
0
29.7
15.8
7.0
20.4
10.8
14.7
15.2
6.0
30.6
10.7
1.2
-1.1
-78.6
2.99
1.59
0.70
1.77
1.08
1.59
1.66
0.65
3.08
1.16
15.1
10.9
5.3
-0.1
23.5
11.3
9.3
9.0
4.5
-0.2
17.8
7.8
19.8
1.3
0.2
1.5
9.9
7.3
6.1
2.0
n.a.
9.6
5.0
268.8%
299.1%
105.0%
-18.4%
169.9%
158.5%
William Allott
William Allott
Jason Mabee, CFA
Roger Leaning
William Allott
William Allott
Property
AAD
CWP
CMW
DVN
FKP
PPC
SDG
Retail
APE
ARP
AHE
KMD
ORL
PBG
PMV
TRS
RFG
RHL
SUL
TGA
WTF
Telecommunication Services
AMM
HTA
IIN
MAQ
SGT
TEL.NZ
TPM
Amcom
Hutchison Telecom (Aus
iiNet
Macq Telecom
SingTel
Telecom Corp
TPG Telecom
Transportation
MRM
RCR
REX
VBA
Mermaid Marine Aust

RCR Tomlinson
Regional Express
Virgin Blue
Utilities
CIF
ENV
EPW
GDY
HDF
SPN
Challenger Infrastructure
Envestra
ERM Power
Geodynamics
Hastings Diversified
SP AusNet
3.6%
10.5%
19.2%
-18.1%
7.1%
41.1%

34

5 October 2011
Market
cap
(A$m)
Last
year
end
Price
(A$)
Target FV (A$)
Up/
price
down
(A$)
Rec YTD -Abs.

12m
YTD Rel.
Earnings
Quality *
Actual
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
Actual
EPS ANALYSIS
IBES 3m
EPS growth
EPS (pre goodwill)
revisions
DIVIDEND ANALYSIS
Div yield
DPS (c)
EPS
CAGR
Div
frank
(%)
PE (x)
(pre goodwill)
PEG
VALUATION
PE rel
(pre goodwill)
EV/
EV / P/ NTA
EBIT (x) EBITDA (x)
B/SHEET ANALYSIS
ROE
Actual
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
12m fwd
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
3 yr
Actual
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
Fcst 1
10.6
Fcst 1
Aluminium & Steel

GBG
Gindalbie Metals
570
Jun 11
0.46
0.85
0.95
86%
Buy
-66%
-49%
-5.3
13.4
93.5
0.5
-0.6
1.1
7.5
-5.1%
598%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0%
100
42.5
6.1
4.29
0.66
33.8
26.8
0.7
2.0%
Aston
Eastern Star
Energy Resource
Gloucester Coa
Horizon Oil
Infigen Energy
Linc Energy
Maverick Drilling
NuCoal
New Hope Corp
Nexus Energy
Stanmore Coal
Senex Energy
Whitehaven Coal
2,117
768
525
1,378
192
164
921
75
259
5,064
179
100
315
2,581
Jun 11
Jun 11
Dec 10
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 10
Jul 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
10.35
0.77
2.75
6.79
0.17
0.22
1.83
0.20
0.40
6.10
0.14
0.76
0.41
5.22
12.06
0.77
3.00
10.23
0.33
0.80
3.75
0.36
0.78
5.87
0.12
2.03
0.63
7.00
12.06
1.24
3.00
10.23
0.33
0.80
3.00
0.89
0.78
5.87
0.60
2.03
0.63
6.23
17%
0%
9%
51%
95%
264%
105%
80%
94%
-4%
-14%
167%
54%
34%
Buy
Hold
Sell
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Hold
Buy
Buy
Buy
29%
-5%
-75%
-44%
-41%
-59%
-31%
-9%
-34%
26%
-68%
-45%
0%
-22%
46%
12%
-58%
-27%
-24%
-42%
-14%
8%
-17%
43%
-51%
-28%
17%
-5%
-16.7
-4.5
52.8
54.6
16.4
-26.0
-204.0
1.7
-15.2
133.4
26.1
-2.0
10.2
73.3
-14.1
1.1
31.4
68.4
23.0
-42.7
81.0
14.0
-4.7
209.4
-18.7
-4.3
31.2
173.3
-41.0
9.5
72.8
89.2
40.3
-24.4
186.4
25.6
-5.7
194.7
-2.8 -5.6
35.9
243.9
1.0
15.5
0.5
0.9
1.6
0.6
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.4
1.0
0.4
0.7
-8.1
-0.4
27.7
26.9
1.4
-3.4
-41.1
0.6
-2.6
16.1
2.0
-1.5
1.4
14.8
-6.9
0.1
16.5
33.3
1.9
-5.6
16.1
3.7
-0.7
25.2
-1.4
-3.3
4.1
34.4
-20.0
0.9
38.2
43.4
3.4
-3.2
37.0
6.9
-0.9
23.4
-0.2
-4.3
4.7
48.4
-0.1%
-38.7%
-19.2%
-68.7%
-8.5%
-382.9%
17.0%
-4.0%
18%
-41%
24%
34%
-39%
518%
258%
57%
-172%
-54%
205%
132%
-66%
757%
132%
30%
76%
75%
130%
83%
-18%
-7%
575%
-22%
15%
41%
61%
49%
81%
-11%
12%
-19%
39%
54%
0.0
0.0
8.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
25.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
12.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
18.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
11.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
24.0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
3.4%
0
0
100
0
0
0
100
0
0
100
0
0
0
100
16.7
20.4
7.7
11.4
4.7
24.2
10.1
15.2
83.8
7.2
15.6
4.3
4.9
2.5
26.0
8.7
10.8
0.4
0.1
-1.0
2.1
0.3
0.3
72.41
1.45
2.06
0.78
1.15
0.48
2.44
1.01
1.53
9.12
0.73
1.70
0.47
0.54
0.27
2.83
0.95
1.17
-257.1
-381.2
5.2
11.1
7.5
26.9
-1.0
3.7
-51.8
17.4
-44.7
-10.4
10.2
9.9
-257.1
-2,450.9
3.0
8.4
5.1
6.4
-0.8
3.3
-51.8
14.3
5.1
-10.4
8.3
8.2
4.6
3.0
0.7
1.3
1.1
0.6
1.7
2.1
9.8
2.2
0.3
1.7
2.3
2.4
-3.1%
0.4%
3.3%
6.5%
14.9%
-6.9%
10.4%
49.8%
-25.1%
9.0%
-3.0%
-9.7%
24.5%
15.8%
282
1,767
2,316
496
387
89
869
324
370
292
Dec 10
Jun 11
Jun 11
Dec 10
Jun 10
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Dec 10
1.05
4.72
2.80
0.43
1.23
0.63
4.40
1.63
4.43
0.58
2.25
5.98
4.43
0.72
2.36
0.77
6.86
2.60
8.00
0.70
2.25
5.98
4.43
0.72
2.36
0.77
6.86
2.60
9.40
0.70
114%
27%
58%
68%
92%
22%
56%
59%
81%
21%
Buy
Hold
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
5%
-52%
-5%
-43%
-32%
-15%
-45%
-9%
-18%
-59%
22%
-35%
12%
-25%
-14%
2%
-27%
8%
-1%
-41%
7.8
-63.5
168.6
33.9
-3.1
-17.5
30.3
31.0
39.0
47.2
-5.4
-41.0
222.9
86.5
-2.9
-17.2
46.3
41.5
19.3
12.6
-9.9
-156.0
243.1
96.0
-7.0
-17.1
61.7
48.5
21.2
36.5
1.0
1.4
1.1
1.8
4.5
0.9
1.0
0.8
0.4
0.4
2.9
-17.0
26.1
3.0
-1.4
-13.6
18.7
15.6
46.7
9.4
-2.0
-10.9
26.9
7.5
-0.9
-12.2
22.8
20.4
23.1
2.5
-3.7
-41.7
29.4
8.3
-2.2
-12.1
30.4
23.8
25.4
7.2
192.6%
-15.2%
-23.1%
-29.5%
3.4%
-43.9%
-169%
55%
3%
154%
48%
11%
22%
30%
-51%
-74%
-45%
-74%
9%
11%
-59%
1%
33%
16%
10%
191%
14%
31%
13%
65%
17%
8%
-5%
0.0
0.0
3.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.0
4.5
0.0
2.8
0.0
0.0
6.0
4.4
0.0
0.0
5.0
5.5
0.0
1.4
0.0
0.0
6.0
2.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6.5
0.0
1.8
0.0%
0.0%
2.1%
10.2%
0.0%
0.0%
1.1%
3.4%
0.0%
2.5%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
100
0
0
10.4
5.7
19.3
8.0
16.9
23.3
9.5
5.2
14.5
6.8
14.9
8.0
0.7
0.2
0.3
0.5
2.0
-5.0
1.05
0.50
1.94
0.87
1.70
2.02
1.04
0.52
1.57
0.78
1.62
0.81
-31.7
100.1
6.1
2.1
-80.3
-6.2
13.1
5.8
6.6
17.8
-31.7
76.4
5.4
1.7
-82.3
-6.2
9.5
5.0
5.9
11.4
275
445
401
980
94
1,318
613
1,294
1,129
413
Jun 11
Dec 10
Jun 11
Jun 11
Dec 10
Jun 11
Dec 10
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
1.54
0.86
0.47
7.24
0.09
6.99
2.28
3.04
2.62
0.67
1.75
1.62
0.80
9.13
0.22
7.90
3.00
3.64
2.96
1.07
1.75
2.70
0.80
9.13
0.24
7.90
3.00
3.16
2.57
1.07
13%
88%
70%
26%
145%
13%
31%
20%
13%
59%
Hold
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Hold
Hold
Buy
-22%
-57%
-34%
-33%
-50%
8%
-38%
-10%
9%
-20%
-5%
-40%
-17%
-16%
-33%
25%
-20%
7%
26%
-3%
29.6
5.3
41.1
32.0
0.1
112.5
32.4
-30.0
37.2
47.7
26.3
-5.9
47.0
206.7
-2.0
121.8
62.3
126.6
75.2
66.2
32.8
-9.9
37.4
205.9
16.2
110.6
71.9
113.3
215.4
73.8
1.0
0.1
0.4
0.4
1.0
0.8
0.5
0.6
1.0
0.7
16.7
1.0
4.9
23.6
0.0
59.9
12.4
-7.1
8.6
9.2
14.8
-1.1
5.6
152.7
-0.3
64.8
23.8
29.7
17.5
12.1
18.4
-1.9
4.4
152.1
2.8
58.8
27.4
26.6
50.0
13.0
37.2%
-11%
- -209%
34.3%
14%
1.0%
547%
-15.5% -4070%
10.8%
8%
-9.6%
92%
47.9%
32.0%
102%
29.9%
32%
25%
-41%
-20%
0%
-9%
15%
-10%
186%
8%
9%
-18%
82%
9%
6%
88%
86%
16%
0.0
0.0
0.0
15.0
0.0
10.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
35.0
0.0
10.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
59.0
0.0
10.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
4.8%
0.0%
1.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10.5
8.5
4.7
9.5
8.6
10.2
15.0
5.5
8.4
10.7
4.8
3.7
10.2
7.2
11.4
5.2
5.1
1.1
-0.5
0.1
1.1
1.4
0.1
0.2
0.3
1.05
0.86
0.48
0.96
0.75
1.03
1.51
0.56
0.91
1.16
0.52
0.32
1.11
0.73
1.24
0.57
0.56
5.8
-31.2
4.8
3.6
-40.9
8.8
5.3
7.7
14.7
3.6
3.7
-50.3
3.7
3.1
-40.9
7.8
3.0
6.9
13.2
3.4
1.4
2.3
1.9
1.3
1.9
3.2
3.1
3.5
9.1
1.9
14.5%
-3.2%
24.9%
30.1%
-5.9%
39.1%
10.8%
43.5%
56.9%
41.7%
577
17
654
1,421
12
114
Jun 11
Sep 10
Dec 10
Jun 11
Jun 11
Dec 10
1.32
0.11
1.33
1.32
0.14
0.47
1.30
0.16
2.03
1.85
0.13
1.33
1.73
0.16
2.25
1.85
0.13
1.33
-1%
48%
52%
40%
-4%
183%
Hold
Hold
Buy
Buy
Sell
Buy
-7%
-54%
-42%
-38%
-62%
-31%
10%
-37%
-24%
-20%
-45%
-14%
-2.5
-5.4
-51.7
233.8
-26.1
2.1
-26.0
-3.4
-29.2
390.1
0.5
9.6
96.8
5.0 30.8
378.9
1.8 18.9
3.9
2.6
7.1
0.8
0.3
1.8
-0.6
-3.5
-10.5
21.7
-28.6
1.2
-5.9
-2.2
-6.0
36.2
0.6
3.7
21.8
3.2
6.3
35.2
2.0
7.2
-6.8%
-40.9%
-13.9%
-
-3%
231%
97%
6%
11%
6%
-53%
79%
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
4.0
0.0
0.0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
3.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0
100
0
0
0
0
3.6
22.4
12.8
6.0
3.4
18.4
3.8
6.8
6.5
0.6
-0.4
0.2
0.37
2.26
1.11
0.66
-30.8
0.35
29.6
1.86 -3,447.8
0.41
1.6
0.74
8.5
0.66
5.7
-30.8
5.9
17.6
1.4
4.5
4.3
3.3
0.5
0.9
0.9
0.2
2.0
Zinc
Aluminium
LME
LME
(US$/lb) (US$/lb)
Nickel
LME
(US$/lb)
Coal
coking
steaming
(US$/t)
(US$/t)
0.91
0.99
1.08
1.15
1.15
1.19
1.25
1.35
1.15
8.79
9.89
10.87
10.94
10.43
11.00
11.95
12.98
8.50
146.0
190.5
247.3
287.5
301.3
305.0
290.0
270.0
180.0
47.8% Todd Scott
Energy
AZT
ESG
ERA
GCL
HZN
IFN
LNC
MAD
NCR
NHC
NXS
SMR
SXY
WHC
n.a.
n.a.
2.2
0.1
1.1
5.4
8.3
0.2
n.a.
6.6
1.8
n.a.
0.3
0.2
47.7%
8.0%
-23.2%
1.6%
26.9%
144.6%
-98.4%
12.4%
-57.7%
-67.4%
15.6%
-48.0%
-7.2%
-5.6%
Tom Sartor
Chris Brown
Lyndon Fagan
Tom Sartor
Chris Brown
William Allott
Jason Mabee, CFA
Roger Leaning
Tom Sartor
Tom Sartor
Chris Brown
Tom Sartor
Roger Leaning
Tom Sartor
4.8 -10.3%
6.4 -12.7%
1.2
11.9% 0.7
13.2% 4.5
-4.3%
19.1 #######
1.4
6.4% 3.2
27.7%
0.9
5.4% 1.2
4.4%
n.a.
1.7
1.4
1.1
n.a.
n.a.
1.2
0.3
4.1
2.8
-32.7%
14.9%
-23.9%
-25.8%
-66.6%
218.3%
-15.1%
15.2%
-37.0%
37.5%
Sam Berridge
Sam Berridge
Lyndon Fagan
Todd Scott
James Wilson
Todd Scott
Sam Berridge
Matthew Nicholas
Chris Brown
Todd Scott
1.0
n.a.
0.9
0.4
n.a.
0.7
0.0
0.6
0.2
0.9
-29.3%
-83.9%
-36.5%
-15.2%
-31.7%
-27.9%
0.8%
-29.0%
12.9%
-43.2%
Chris Brown
Chris Brown
Chris Brown
Sam Berridge
Chris Brown
Phillip Chippindale
Phillip Chippindale
Sam Berridge
Sam Berridge
James Wilson
-13.6%
-11.9%
-4.8%
28.8% 0.8%
20.3% -
n.a.
2.5
6.0
1.0
3.9
2.0
-35.2%
39.1%
46.6%
-37.6%
110.7%
-59.0%
Chris Brown
Chris Brown
Tom Sartor
Lyndon Fagan
Alexandra Clarke
Chris Brown
Diversified Metals & Mining

ALK
AQA
AGO
GRR
GRY
IRD
IGO
IMD
MDL
OMH
Alkane Resources
Aquila
Atlas Iron
Grange Resources
Gryphon Minerals
Iron Road
Independence Gp
Imdex
Mineral Deposits
OM Holdings
Gold & Precious Metals

CAH
IAU
IGR
KCN
KGL
MML
OGC
PRU
RRL
SAR
Conquest Mining
Intrepid Mines
Integra Mining
Kingsgate
Kentor Gold
Medusa Mining
OceanaGold
Perseus Mining
Regis Resources
Saracen Minera
Miscellaneous Metals & Mining

DML
HSK
MBN
MGX
PSH
TXN
Discovery
Heemskirk
Mirabela Nicke
Mount Gibson Iron
Penrice Soda
Texon
Exchange
rate
(A$/US$)
FY10
CY10
FY11
CY11
FY12
CY12
FY13
CY13
LT (2015+)
0.88
0.92
0.99
1.05
1.07
1.08
1.10
1.08
0.75
Gold
Oil
WTI
(US$/oz) (US$/bbl)
1092
1223
1370
1649
1850
1750
1600
1525
1100
77.2
82.6
93.2
94.4
87.8
91.0
94.3
96.0
90.0
Copper
LME
(US$/lb)
3.03
3.42
3.93
4.27
4.36
4.50
4.65
4.86
3.00
0.94
0.98
1.02
1.05
1.05
1.10
1.18
1.33
1.00
76.3
90.0
108.3
120.0
118.8
116.3
112.5
107.5
100.0
-90%
59%
77%
67%
213%
Iron ore
lump
fines
(US$/t) (US$/t)
86.4
138.5
176.0
138.5
176.5
138.5
159.3
138.5
95.4
73.7
118.1
154.1
162.4
161.4
153.2
145.4
137.9
84.8

** BHP, LGL, PDN & RIO price and market cap reported in AUD. Financial forecasts in USD.
35
S&P/ASX 200 - Sector Aggregations (RBS)

Prices updated: 4 October 2011
PE (x)
EPS growth (%)*
Sector
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
200 CONS DISCRET

200 ENERGY
200 HEALTHCARE
200 INFO TECHNOL
200 MATERIALS
200 INDUSTRIALS
200 PROPERTY
200 CONS STAP
200 TELECOMS
200 UTILITIES
200 FIN EX PROP
S&P/ASX 200
14.1
23.3
16.4
16.3
20.5
25.6
7.9
18.7
11.7
15.5
12.3
15.4
13.0
23.1
14.6
14.4
14.5
19.4
9.9
17.1
11.4
14.9
10.4
13.1
12.2
21.3
14.7
14.1
9.7
20.0
11.3
15.6
12.5
13.8
9.6
11.4
10.8
16.7
14.3
13.1
7.7
13.4
10.4
13.8
12.0
14.0
8.8
9.9
9.8
15.9
13.1
11.7
7.2
11.4
9.8
12.5
11.4
13.6
8.3
9.2
-24.2
-20.9
35.7
4.6
-36.9
-61.9
-22.2
-0.4
0.5
18.8
-17.5
-22.7
7.2
3.0
11.9
13.0
43.4
44.7
-19.7
9.2
2.2
3.9
17.9
18.0
5.6
9.3
-5.0
2.0
54.9
-3.1
-12.7
9.4
-9.1
8.0
8.1
16.2
11.1
27.3
2.5
8.0
26.0
48.3
8.5
13.1
4.7
-1.0
8.3
15.9
9.8
4.9
9.9
12.2
7.0
17.5
6.0
10.1
5.4
3.8
6.8
7.6
Sector
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
200 CONS DISCRET

200 ENERGY
200 HEALTHCARE
200 INFO TECHNOL
200 MATERIALS
200 INDUSTRIALS
200 PROPERTY
200 CONS STAP
200 TELECOMS
200 UTILITIES
200 FIN EX PROP
S&P/ASX 200
2.8
3.3
2.8
3.3
1.8
4.2
13.1
4.0
6.3
7.8
5.9
4.2
3.4
2.7
3.3
4.0
2.3
3.9
8.2
4.6
6.6
7.3
6.9
4.6
3.5
2.7
3.2
4.2
2.5
3.8
6.5
5.1
6.8
7.1
7.5
4.9
3.8
3.1
3.4
4.5
2.9
5.1
6.8
5.7
6.9
7.1
8.0
5.4
4.1
3.5
3.8
5.1
3.2
5.8
7.2
6.3
7.1
7.4
8.5
5.8
11.3
13.4
13.6
13.6
7.6
9.0
9.6
11.6
6.5
9.8
na
8.9
8.9
13.6
10.9
11.4
6.4
6.9
10.7
10.3
6.1
9.1
na
7.6
8.6
14.9
11.1
13.6
4.3
7.6
12.3
10.7
6.5
8.2
na
6.4
7.9
10.7
11.7
11.4
3.8
6.7
11.8
9.0
6.2
8.1
na
5.8
7.4
16.4
10.7
10.4
3.6
5.6
10.7
8.9
6.1
7.9
na
5.6
Sector
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
1.5
1.9
2.5
5.5
3.0
1.6
0.7
2.2
2.6
1.4
1.5
2.0
1.4
1.8
2.5
4.7
2.6
1.4
1.0
2.1
2.4
1.3
1.4
1.9
1.4
1.7
2.4
4.2
2.1
1.4
1.0
2.0
2.4
1.3
1.4
1.7
1.3
1.6
2.3
3.7
1.7
1.4
0.9
1.9
2.3
1.3
1.3
1.5
1.2
1.5
2.1
3.3
1.4
1.3
0.8
1.9
2.2
1.3
1.2
1.4
10.1
10.3
17.9
36.4
17.7
6.4
8.0
12.7
22.4
9.9
12.6
13.5
11.5
8.1
16.8
35.3
21.7
8.5
8.6
12.4
21.9
9.4
14.5
15.4
11.5
8.2
16.4
31.1
26.3
7.1
8.9
13.1
19.1
9.7
14.9
16.7
12.4
9.7
16.6
29.7
26.0
10.5
9.1
14.4
19.8
9.3
15.2
17.5
12.8
9.6
16.9
29.6
22.4
11.8
8.9
15.2
19.9
9.5
15.4
16.9
Dividend yield (%)
PCF (x)
PB (x)
200 CONS DISCRET

200 ENERGY
200 HEALTHCARE
200 INFO TECHNOL
200 MATERIALS
200 INDUSTRIALS
200 PROPERTY
200 CONS STAP
200 TELECOMS
200 UTILITIES
200 FIN EX PROP
S&P/ASX 200
ROE (%)
Gearing - net debt/(net debt+equity) (%)
ROA (%)
Sector
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
200 CONS DISCRET

200 ENERGY
200 HEALTHCARE
200 INFO TECHNOL
200 MATERIALS
200 INDUSTRIALS
200 PROPERTY
200 CONS STAP
200 TELECOMS
200 UTILITIES
200 FIN EX PROP
S&P/ASX 200
26.8
7.6
15.2
37.1
21.1
41.3
40.0
23.7
41.7
53.0
na
28.8
20.3
10.4
21.7
29.1
8.6
31.4
37.5
23.0
37.0
51.4
na
22.0
18.9
15.7
23.8
25.2
8.4
32.1
38.2
22.8
35.4
49.6
na
21.3
20.1
23.1
21.1
28.0
8.4
33.6
35.8
23.5
31.9
50.7
na
21.3
13.9
24.5
16.4
20.0
-0.5
33.2
34.2
23.4
28.4
51.2
na
16.8
6.2
5.1
10.5
29.8
9.5
3.7
5.0
7.9
11.3
6.8
3.6
7.5
6.9
4.7
10.6
32.1
12.8
4.7
5.5
7.8
11.3
5.7
3.9
8.9
7.0
4.9
10.7
32.8
16.0
4.2
5.1
8.0
10.3
5.9
4.6
9.9
7.4
5.6
10.7
33.3
16.3
5.4
5.6
8.4
10.5
5.7
4.4
10.6
7.7
5.2
11.0
32.8
14.8
6.0
5.8
8.8
10.7
5.8
4.7
10.3
Sector
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
200 CONS DISCRET

200 ENERGY
200 HEALTHCARE
200 INFO TECHNOL
200 MATERIALS
200 INDUSTRIALS
200 PROPERTY
200 CONS STAP
200 TELECOMS
200 UTILITIES
200 FIN EX PROP
S&P/ASX 200
9.7
17.2
12.5
14.7
12.8
16.2
12.9
11.9
9.8
12.9
11.4
12.3
8.8
17.6
12.2
12.0
8.6
13.6
12.4
11.5
9.3
12.2
8.2
10.0
8.3
14.4
12.3
10.4
6.2
14.4
16.6
10.7
9.8
12.1
7.1
8.5
7.6
11.2
11.8
8.7
4.8
10.5
14.2
9.7
9.3
11.3
7.3
6.9
6.9
11.2
10.7
7.6
4.2
9.1
13.1
8.9
8.7
10.9
6.7
6.2
7.8
11.6
10.5
13.8
9.7
8.6
12.8
9.5
6.2
10.1
10.6
9.0
6.6
11.9
10.2
11.5
6.9
7.5
12.4
9.1
5.9
9.6
7.7
7.5
6.2
10.6
10.2
9.9
5.2
7.7
16.6
8.5
6.0
9.4
6.7
6.5
5.8
8.4
9.7
8.3
4.1
6.3
14.1
7.7
5.8
8.8
6.7
5.5
5.2
8.3
8.8
7.3
3.6
5.6
13.1
7.1
5.6
8.5
6.2
5.0
EV/EBIT (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)

* When comparing to consensus (IBES), RBS forecasts include BHP and RIO, but only a limited number of property stocks
37
S&P/ASX 200 - Sector Aggregations (IBES)

PE (x)
EPS growth (%)
Sector
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
200 CONS DISCRET

200 ENERGY
200 HEALTHCARE
200 INFO TECHNOL
200 MATERIALS
200 INDUSTRIALS
200 PROPERTY
200 CONS STAP
200 TELECOMS
200 UTILITIES
200 FIN EX PROP
S&P/ASX 200
10.8
17.4
7.8
13.5
19.3
23.5
7.3
18.0
9.4
15.5
12.1
13.6
10.1
20.7
17.6
12.2
14.6
16.1
10.0
16.5
10.1
15.4
12.8
13.6
10.2
18.7
16.5
12.5
9.7
15.2
10.9
15.9
11.9
10.5
9.2
10.9
9.9
14.6
16.8
12.2
7.8
13.3
10.9
14.2
10.8
13.9
8.7
9.7
9.3
12.6
14.7
10.7
6.9
11.1
10.4
13.2
10.4
13.2
7.8
8.7
-24.1
-7.7
89.2
1.4
-39.4
-64.2
-35.1
-2.4
3.8
20.8
-0.7
-15.9
6.8
-13.4
-56.9
10.5
34.5
31.2
-17.3
8.9
-6.8
0.4
-5.5
-0.2
-1.1
11.1
6.8
-2.3
51.0
6.3
-8.9
3.6
-15.1
46.7
38.3
25.8
3.4
27.6
-1.6
2.2
24.5
14.4
0.5
11.7
10.1
-24.2
6.2
11.6
6.2
16.3
14.0
13.9
13.5
19.2
4.3
7.9
3.3
4.9
11.6
11.6
Sector
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
200 CONS DISCRET

200 ENERGY
200 HEALTHCARE
200 INFO TECHNOL
200 MATERIALS
200 INDUSTRIALS
200 PROPERTY
200 CONS STAP
200 TELECOMS
200 UTILITIES
200 FIN EX PROP
S&P/ASX 200
6.9
16.5
13.5
10.9
11.4
18.5
13.1
11.4
10.1
13.1
0.0
11.6
6.1
15.2
13.2
10.2
7.3
14.8
13.2
11.0
9.5
12.3
0.0
9.1
6.0
14.1
12.4
10.9
5.4
12.9
13.3
10.8
6.6
12.6
0.0
7.6
5.3
10.3
12.6
9.7
4.5
11.1
12.7
9.7
6.5
11.4
0.0
6.5
4.7
9.1
11.0
8.3
3.9
9.4
12.4
9.0
6.1
10.9
0.0
5.8
5.9
11.2
11.4
9.8
8.7
9.5
13.0
9.2
5.9
10.3
0.0
8.6
4.8
10.6
11.1
8.9
6.0
8.3
13.1
8.8
5.5
9.7
0.0
7.0
4.8
10.0
10.5
9.2
4.5
7.8
13.1
8.7
4.4
10.2
0.0
6.1
4.3
7.4
10.4
8.5
3.8
6.8
12.8
7.8
4.5
9.0
0.0
5.3
3.9
6.7
9.1
7.4
3.3
6.0
12.5
7.3
4.3
8.6
0.0
4.8
Sector
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
200 CONS DISCRET

200 ENERGY
200 HEALTHCARE
200 INFO TECHNOL
200 MATERIALS
200 INDUSTRIALS
200 PROPERTY
200 CONS STAP
200 TELECOMS
200 UTILITIES
200 FIN EX PROP
S&P/ASX 200
3.8
3.3
2.3
3.7
2.0
4.2
10.1
3.9
9.2
8.3
4.9
4.2
5.0
3.1
2.7
4.6
2.3
3.8
3.7
4.5
9.2
7.5
5.7
4.4
5.6
2.9
2.8
4.5
2.8
3.9
6.9
3.2
8.9
6.9
7.5
5.2
5.5
3.4
2.8
4.9
3.4
4.8
7.1
5.4
8.8
7.1
8.1
5.8
7.8
3.9
3.9
6.5
5.1
6.4
7.3
6.0
7.5
6.0
8.5
6.6
5.0
4.7
2.7
4.6
2.7
5.0
10.1
5.6
12.6
9.0
6.8
5.6
5.6
4.2
3.2
5.8
3.0
4.4
3.7
6.4
12.7
8.2
7.9
5.8
5.6
4.1
3.2
5.7
3.7
4.4
6.9
4.6
12.3
7.6
10.0
6.7
6.5
4.7
3.3
6.1
4.5
5.5
7.1
7.7
12.3
7.8
10.7
7.6
9.3
5.5
5.0
8.8
6.4
8.4
7.3
8.4
8.8
7.3
12.1
8.7
Sector
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
200 CONS DISCRET

200 ENERGY
200 HEALTHCARE
200 INFO TECHNOL
200 MATERIALS
200 INDUSTRIALS
200 PROPERTY
200 CONS STAP
200 TELECOMS
200 UTILITIES
200 FIN EX PROP
S&P/ASX 200
12.0
10.0
13.9
24.5
15.2
9.0
3.9
12.8
15.9
6.4
3.0
9.2
12.6
5.8
13.3
21.2
16.6
7.2
2.0
12.1
15.6
6.4
3.1
8.9
8.4
6.5
15.3
16.7
16.8
5.9
5.1
9.5
8.3
4.0
3.1
8.4
12.4
9.1
16.9
22.5
22.0
9.2
5.6
14.8
15.0
7.3
3.4
11.2
12.8
9.9
19.4
19.4
21.4
10.3
5.7
15.9
15.3
7.6
3.6
11.5
19.2
12.1
16.6
36.5
19.5
12.7
6.0
18.9
30.8
12.2
14.5
16.6
18.2
10.0
13.6
34.8
20.9
10.9
4.0
18.9
28.6
13.6
17.5
17.1
15.2
9.3
23.0
28.4
29.4
12.1
8.1
20.1
25.4
7.3
16.6
19.1
15.0
11.1
18.5
27.8
27.4
12.9
7.8
32.2
27.5
8.3
16.4
19.7
15.4
11.9
19.5
28.6
24.0
14.0
8.0
31.2
28.1
8.3
16.9
19.2
EV/EBIT (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Dividend yield (%)
Gross dividend yield (%)
ROA (%)
ROE (%)
Source: IBES
38
Sector Aggregations (RBS)

PE (x)
PE rel
EPS growth (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Sector
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2011
2012
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Energy
Energy
23.9
23.9
23.2
23.2
21.6
21.6
16.9
16.9
16.0
16.0
1.88
1.88
1.70
1.70
-14.7
-14.7
5.0
5.0
7.8
7.8
27.8
27.8
5.5
5.5
4.0
4.0
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.8
3.0
3.0
3.4
3.4
Aluminium & Steel

Chemicals
Div Metals & Mining
Forestry products
Gold, Precious Metals
Packaging & Paper
Materials
70.4
13.4
19.5
0.0
49.8
15.6
20.8
22.5
12.4
13.5
0.0
25.3
19.0
14.8
10.5
11.5
8.4
0.0
27.7
14.4
9.7
7.8
10.3
7.0
0.0
11.8
12.5
7.7
7.4
9.3
6.5
0.0
12.0
11.1
7.2
0.91
1.00
0.73
0.00
2.40
1.25
0.84
0.78
1.04
0.70
0.00
1.19
1.26
0.78
-80.2
-29.6
-35.6
0.0
-19.3
0.4
-37.0
100.0
1.8
47.3
0.0
100.0
-18.2
44.4
100.0
7.9
61.3
0.0
-8.3
32.1
57.3
36.6
11.0
20.5
5.1
100.0
15.4
25.9
5.1
11.0
6.7
5.9
-1.1
12.4
6.8
0.7
3.3
1.7
0.0
0.4
5.1
1.8
1.3
3.3
2.3
0.0
0.7
4.4
2.2
2.5
3.7
2.5
0.0
0.5
5.2
2.5
2.6
4.0
2.9
0.0
1.5
5.4
2.9
3.5
4.3
3.2
0.0
1.5
6.0
3.2
14.9
12.9
13.1
-373.7
23.0
12.3
10.5
14.4
39.1
18.7
17.6
17.7
13.3
25.6
19.3
10.5
9.3
11.5
17.8
13.1
8.8
8.2
9.8
14.9
11.2
1.53
1.54
1.16
2.22
1.67
1.06
0.94
1.16
1.79
1.32
-22.5
-21.1
-14.1
-100.0
-59.0
18.8
16.4
-8.8
-100.0
34.1
-30.8
-41.3
7.5
53.9
-3.3
67.4
89.2
15.2
43.8
45.6
18.9
14.4
17.8
19.6
17.4
3.6
4.1
3.9
4.5
4.2
4.8
6.2
3.9
2.9
3.9
4.0
4.6
3.9
3.5
3.8
5.3
6.2
5.0
4.4
5.0
5.9
7.0
5.9
5.1
5.8
Consumer Producers
Consumer Services
Media
Consumer Discretionary
7.8
11.0
18.4
14.2
7.9
11.0
16.2
13.1
8.6
10.3
14.0
12.3
8.5
9.9
11.3
10.9
7.8
11.0
9.8
9.9
0.75
0.89
1.22
1.07
0.86
1.00
1.14
1.10
-20.0
-16.9
-30.7
-23.3
-0.5
-1.0
13.5
6.8
-7.8
5.8
14.8
6.1
1.6
3.0
20.6
11.1
9.6
-10.4
15.8
10.1
9.3
6.9
1.2
2.8
8.9
7.1
1.6
3.4
8.4
7.0
1.8
3.5
8.9
6.7
2.2
3.8
9.5
6.1
2.6
4.2
Food Bev & Tobacco

Retail
Consumer Staples
21.0
17.2
19.3
15.0
15.8
17.1
13.8
14.7
15.6
13.2
13.1
13.8
12.4
11.8
12.5
1.20
1.27
1.36
1.33
1.32
1.39
-20.0
-1.0
-4.3
39.6
8.2
12.3
8.9
7.3
9.5
3.6
12.1
13.2
6.0
11.5
10.3
4.1
4.0
3.9
4.8
4.8
4.6
5.0
5.3
5.1
5.1
5.9
5.7
5.4
6.5
6.2
Healthcare
Healthcare
18.1
18.1
16.8
16.8
17.6
17.6
16.6
16.6
14.3
14.3
1.52
1.52
1.68
1.68
30.6
30.6
8.4
8.4
-3.4
-3.4
6.2
6.2
16.4
16.4
2.8
2.8
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.8
3.8
Banks
Insurance
Financials ex Property
12.8
10.9
11.2
12.3
10.3
11.7
11.7
10.4
9.4
9.8
11.4
9.6
8.9
8.7
8.9
8.8
8.4
7.9
7.9
8.3
0.81
0.85
0.99
0.83
0.89
0.87
0.89
0.89
-14.7
-35.9
-4.2
-17.5
23.9
5.7
-4.4
17.8
9.8
23.2
0.4
8.1
5.9
13.0
29.1
8.3
5.3
10.2
11.9
6.7
5.8
5.4
6.8
5.9
6.9
5.3
6.9
6.9
7.6
6.5
7.3
7.5
8.0
6.9
8.7
8.0
8.4
7.4
9.3
8.5
Mgmnt & Development

Property
Property & Development
7.9
2.7
7.9
9.6
4.3
9.9
10.1
6.3
11.3
9.5
6.1
10.4
8.8
5.5
9.8
0.88
0.55
0.98
0.96
0.62
1.05
-26.7
-42.0
-22.2
-19.1
-37.9
-19.7
-5.6
-31.6
-12.7
5.9
3.1
8.5
8.0
10.3
6.0
11.7
15.0
13.1
7.6
5.0
8.2
6.4
10.0
6.5
6.9
10.6
6.8
7.3
11.7
7.2
IT
Information Technology
16.5
16.5
14.3
14.3
14.3
14.3
12.8
12.8
11.7
11.7
1.24
1.24
1.30
1.30
4.4
4.4
15.4
15.4
0.0
0.0
10.7
10.7
10.0
10.0
3.4
3.4
4.2
4.2
4.4
4.4
4.8
4.8
5.4
5.4
Telecommunications
Telecommunications
11.8
11.8
11.5
11.5
12.8
12.8
12.0
12.0
11.3
11.3
1.11
1.11
1.22
1.22
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
-10.3
-10.3
6.3
6.3
6.6
6.6
6.2
6.2
6.5
6.5
6.7
6.7
6.8
6.8
7.0
7.0
Utilities
Utilities
15.3
15.3
20.7
20.7
14.7
14.7
14.6
14.6
13.8
13.8
1.27
1.27
1.48
1.48
-7.1
-7.1
-31.8
-31.8
40.5
40.5
0.8
0.8
6.7
6.7
8.4
8.4
7.4
7.4
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.3
7.3
INDUSTRIAL ex Banks
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
RESOURCE SECTOR
S&P/ASX 100
SMALL ORDINARIES
SMALL INDUSTRIALS
SMALL RESOURCES
14.7
14.1
21.3
15.4
16.1
14.6
77.7
14.0
12.7
15.5
12.9
16.2
14.1
77.4
13.4
11.8
10.9
11.1
14.5
12.7
67.2
11.5
10.5
8.7
9.6
12.0
11.4
17.0
10.3
9.6
8.2
9.0
10.8
10.4
13.8
1.16
1.03
0.94
0.96
1.26
1.10
5.83
1.15
1.06
0.87
0.97
1.21
1.15
1.71
-21.7
-19.7
-30.1
-23.2
-20.0
-20.5
-2.9
5.6
11.6
39.8
19.6
2.3
0.1
90.3
5.5
7.1
48.2
17.4
13.0
10.8
78.5
16.2
12.3
26.3
15.5
20.0
10.6
100.0
10.8
8.8
6.0
7.2
11.9
10.5
23.1
4.7
5.0
2.1
4.3
3.9
4.2
1.1
4.8
5.4
2.3
4.7
4.0
4.6
0.5
5.0
5.8
2.4
5.0
4.4
5.1
0.5
5.5
6.3
2.8
5.4
4.8
5.5
0.9
6.0
6.8
3.0
5.9
5.3
6.0
1.2
MARKET AVERAGE
15.4
13.3
11.5
9.9
9.2
1.00
1.00
-22.2
17.2
16.5
16.2
7.8
4.3
4.6
4.9
5.4
5.8
Construction
Other Capital Goods
Services & Supplies
Transportation
Industrials
39
Sector Aggregations (RBS)

EV/EBIT (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/BV (x)
ROE (%)
ROA (%)
Sector
2010
2011
2012
2013
2010
2011
2012
2013
2011
2012
2013
2011
2012
2013
2011
2012
2013
Energy
Energy
17.8
17.8
14.8
14.8
11.3
11.3
11.2
11.2
12.1
12.1
10.8
10.8
8.4
8.4
8.3
8.3
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
8.1
8.1
9.6
9.6
9.5
9.5
4.8
4.8
5.6
5.6
5.2
5.2
Aluminium & Steel

Chemicals
Div Metals & Mining
Forestry products
Gold, Precious Metals
Packaging & Paper
Materials
13.5
9.1
7.7
0.0
24.1
15.5
8.7
7.2
8.5
5.4
0.0
20.1
11.8
6.2
5.7
7.6
4.2
10.1
8.3
10.0
4.8
5.2
6.7
3.7
8.7
8.0
9.1
4.2
9.6
7.4
6.3
0.0
18.4
9.5
7.0
5.9
7.0
4.7
0.0
14.2
7.7
5.2
4.9
6.3
3.7
0.0
7.0
7.1
4.1
4.5
5.5
3.2
0.0
6.5
6.6
3.6
1.4
1.6
2.3
0.0
2.0
2.2
2.1
1.2
1.4
1.8
0.0
1.7
2.1
1.7
1.1
1.3
1.5
0.0
1.5
2.0
1.4
14.2
14.1
31.8
0.0
10.3
14.7
26.2
17.6
14.6
30.0
2.8
15.9
17.5
25.9
15.7
14.8
25.0
3.3
13.6
18.6
22.3
11.3
9.8
18.7
0.0
8.4
6.8
15.9
13.0
10.2
18.6
0.0
12.8
7.7
16.3
11.6
10.8
16.4
0.0
11.0
8.3
14.7
Construction
Other Capital Goods
Services & Supplies
Transportation
Industrials
9.6
7.7
11.4
19.9
13.2
13.4
11.4
10.2
17.7
14.0
7.8
6.2
8.6
14.4
10.3
6.6
5.5
7.4
12.2
8.9
6.1
4.9
7.7
9.5
7.5
7.2
5.9
7.0
9.0
7.7
5.1
4.0
5.9
7.9
6.3
4.5
3.6
5.2
7.0
5.6
1.7
1.5
1.9
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.4
1.8
1.1
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.6
1.1
1.3
9.5
8.2
15.1
4.6
7.3
14.9
15.6
16.3
6.4
10.5
16.3
16.5
17.9
7.5
11.8
5.1
4.7
8.2
3.1
4.3
7.6
8.0
8.7
3.7
5.5
8.5
8.8
9.5
4.2
6.1
6.8
8.7
9.9
8.9
7.9
7.9
9.0
8.4
7.1
7.8
7.6
7.6
6.6
8.8
6.5
6.9
5.9
6.8
6.9
6.7
6.5
6.2
6.3
6.3
5.9
6.3
5.5
5.8
5.5
7.0
4.7
5.3
1.2
1.7
1.4
1.4
1.1
1.6
1.3
1.3
1.1
1.5
1.2
1.2
13.6
14.8
10.3
11.5
13.3
16.6
11.6
12.4
14.1
14.1
12.5
12.9
8.3
9.7
6.3
7.1
7.8
10.0
6.9
7.4
8.3
9.2
7.4
7.8
Food Bev & Tobacco

Retail
Consumer Staples
11.2
10.7
11.6
10.0
10.1
10.7
9.3
9.3
9.7
8.8
8.4
8.9
8.9
8.5
9.1
7.9
8.1
8.5
7.2
7.5
7.7
6.8
6.8
7.1
1.8
1.9
2.0
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.6
1.7
1.8
12.6
12.9
12.7
13.1
14.0
13.9
13.1
15.0
14.8
7.7
7.9
7.7
8.0
8.3
8.2
8.1
8.8
8.6
Healthcare
Healthcare
12.4
12.4
13.0
13.0
12.1
12.1
10.5
10.5
10.3
10.3
10.6
10.6
9.9
9.9
8.7
8.7
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.4
14.7
14.7
15.7
15.7
17.0
17.0
9.3
9.3
9.8
9.8
10.6
10.6
Banks
Insurance
Financials ex Property
na
7.0
19.2
8.3
na
6.6
16.6
7.1
na
5.4
16.0
7.1
na
4.7
12.8
6.6
na
5.4
17.3
7.7
na
5.2
15.2
6.7
na
4.4
14.2
6.6
na
3.8
11.5
6.1
1.5
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.4
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.3
0.9
1.1
1.2
16.5
9.8
10.6
14.9
16.3
10.6
12.9
15.2
16.2
11.1
14.0
15.4
0.0
5.6
7.6
4.6
0.0
5.6
7.7
4.4
0.0
5.7
7.9
4.7
Mgmnt & Development

Property
Property & Development
11.5
4.9
12.4
13.6
6.4
16.6
12.1
6.1
14.2
11.1
5.4
13.1
11.3
4.8
12.4
13.3
6.4
16.6
11.8
6.0
14.1
10.8
5.4
13.1
1.0
0.4
1.0
0.9
0.4
0.9
0.8
0.4
0.8
9.7
5.9
8.9
9.7
6.0
9.1
9.7
6.5
8.9
4.9
4.6
5.1
5.2
4.7
5.6
5.5
5.0
5.8
IT
Information Technology
11.3
11.3
10.5
10.5
8.6
8.6
7.8
7.8
9.5
9.5
8.7
8.7
7.2
7.2
6.6
6.6
3.2
3.2
2.9
2.9
2.7
2.7
24.2
24.2
23.8
23.8
24.0
24.0
13.3
13.3
14.0
14.0
14.1
14.1
9.3
9.3
9.9
9.9
9.3
9.3
8.8
8.8
6.0
6.0
6.1
6.1
5.8
5.8
5.6
5.6
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.1
2.1
18.2
18.2
19.1
19.1
19.5
19.5
9.9
9.9
10.3
10.3
10.6
10.6
Utilities
Utilities
12.5
12.5
12.4
12.4
11.5
11.5
10.9
10.9
9.5
9.5
9.2
9.2
8.6
8.6
8.3
8.3
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
8.7
8.7
8.6
8.6
9.0
9.0
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.4
5.4
INDUSTRIAL ex Banks
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
RESOURCE SECTOR
S&P/ASX 100
SMALL ORDINARIES
SMALL INDUSTRIALS
SMALL RESOURCES
10.9
na
9.2
9.8
12.1
10.8
58.6
10.5
na
6.7
8.1
11.3
10.2
44.4
9.2
na
5.1
6.6
9.2
9.0
10.8
8.3
na
4.6
6.0
8.2
8.0
9.5
7.7
na
7.4
7.4
8.4
7.7
29.7
7.4
na
5.6
6.3
7.9
7.3
21.8
6.7
na
4.4
5.3
6.7
6.6
8.1
6.1
na
3.9
4.8
6.1
5.9
7.1
1.5
1.5
2.1
1.7
1.7
1.7
2.0
1.5
1.4
1.8
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.8
1.4
1.3
1.5
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.8
11.7
13.1
24.7
17.1
12.3
13.5
3.4
13.1
14.1
24.4
17.8
14.1
14.5
11.2
13.7
14.5
21.1
17.0
14.8
15.1
13.2
6.9
6.9
14.9
10.3
7.3
7.7
2.3
7.5
7.5
15.1
10.9
8.2
8.2
8.2
7.9
7.9
13.5
10.5
8.6
8.6
8.4
MARKET AVERAGE
10.1
8.5
6.9
6.3
7.5
6.5
5.5
5.0
1.7
1.5
1.4
16.5
17.4
16.8
9.8
10.5
10.2
Consumer Producers
Consumer Services
Media
Consumer Discretionary
Telecommunications
Telecommunications
40
Absolute performance to 5 Oct 11

Stock/sector
Price
last
5/10/11
4Q
2011
% return over ...

3Q
2Q
2011
2011
Materials
Adelaide Brighton
Alumina Ltd
Amcor
Aquarius Platinum
Atlas Iron Limited
BHP Billiton
BlueScope Steel
Boral
Fortescue Metals
Gindalbie Metals Ltd
Gunns
Iluka Resources
Incitec Pivot
Independence Group
James Hardie Indust
Kagara Ltd
Kingsgate Consolid.
Lynas Corporation
Macarthur Coal
Minara Resources
Mincor Resources
Mount Gibson Iron
Murchison Metals
Newcrest Mining
Nufarm
OM Holdings Limited
OneSteel
Orica
PaperlinX
Platinum Australia
Rio Tinto
Sims Group
St Barbara Limited
Sundance Resources
Western Areas NL
10,738.1
$2.58
$1.48
$6.67
$2.78
$2.80
$35.13
$0.75
$3.25
$4.25
$0.46
$0.14
$13.35
$2.99
$4.40
$5.40
$0.37
$7.24
$1.01
$15.80
$0.88
$0.72
$1.32
$0.24
$33.86
$4.10
$0.58
$1.17
$22.76
$0.07
$0.16
$60.30
$11.67
$2.10
$0.46
$4.74
-0.9
-2.3
-0.3
-3.8
-6.4
-1.8
+0.3
+2.7
-7.1
-3.8
-4.2
-6.7
+6.7
-8.6
+1.9
-6.1
-8.8
+0.8
-7.8
-0.8
0.0
+3.6
-1.5
-28.4
-0.6
-4.2
-2.5
-6.0
-3.1
-6.8
0.0
-2.4
-5.9
+2.4
+7.0
+9.7
-19.3
-14.6
-29.9
-3.8
-36.8
-23.6
-20.0
-39.4
-20.5
-30.4
-40.9
-44.4
-25.4
-15.3
-23.3
-1.9
-29.8
-10.3
-44.9
+45.4
+17.4
-23.2
-27.2
-56.2
-9.6
-4.7
-35.3
-33.0
-12.8
-54.4
-59.0
-25.5
-29.7
+4.9
+26.5
-26.8
Health Care
Ansell
Cochlear
CSL Ltd
Ramsay Health Care
ResMed Inc
Sigma Pharma
Sonic Hlthcare
7,566.3
$13.02
$46.28
$29.34
$18.83
$2.94
$0.67
$11.39
-0.5
-0.3
-0.2
-1.1
-0.9
0.0
+3.1
-0.1
-11.1
-7.8
-35.6
-10.2
+4.5
+2.4
+22.6
-11.4
Stock/sector
1Q
2011
CY
2010
-5.5
-4.0
-14.2
+2.0
-12.8
0.0
-5.9
-39.0
-12.0
-0.9
-26.4
-56.5
+26.2
-10.9
-14.6
-3.9
-7.3
-7.9
-12.0
-5.6
-2.6
-34.2
-7.5
-23.1
-5.3
-13.2
-34.3
-24.2
+2.2
-54.9
-33.9
-2.1
+0.8
-10.3
-26.9
-12.7
+0.9
-1.7
-0.8
+4.6
+0.7
+26.4
+2.9
-12.2
+3.5
-2.0
-18.3
-0.8
+45.5
+9.3
-17.1
-10.0
-24.1
-20.1
+9.2
-9.4
-19.5
-27.1
-6.1
-22.0
-1.5
+0.6
-0.4
-5.8
+5.9
-13.4
-7.1
-0.8
-18.8
+6.9
-19.1
+13.2
+10.2
+20.0
+34.8
+8.3
-27.2
+56.1
+4.9
-27.7
-16.6
+47.3
+31.1
-33.5
+155.3
+11.5
+65.4
-20.2
-22.9
+18.1
+274.5
+13.8
+32.2
+5.9
+28.5
-49.0
+14.5
-50.7
-27.9
-22.7
+0.5
-35.9
-37.8
+14.1
-2.8
+15.3
+271.0
+19.4
-3.8
+4.7
-13.2
-7.5
-4.8
-1.4
+56.6
+7.4
-0.5
+6.6
+3.2
-1.5
+7.2
-16.6
+22.5
+3.3
+2.1
+16.0
+16.4
+11.7
+63.5
+17.7
-59.6
-24.5
% return over ...

3Q
2Q
2011
2011
Price
last
5/10/11
4Q
2011
Consumer Disc
APN News & Media
Aristocrat Leisure
Austar United
Billabong
Consolidated Media
Crown
David Jones
Fairfax Media
Flight Centre
Fleetwood Corp
GUD Holdings
Harvey Norman
InvoCare
JB Hi-Fi
News Corp
Pacific Brands
Seven Network
STW Communications
Tabcorp Holdings
Tatts Group
Ten Network Holdings
Wotifcom Holdings
1163.1
$0.83
$2.03
$1.16
$3.30
$2.41
$7.54
$2.88
$0.84
$16.21
$11.31
$7.20
$2.18
$6.92
$14.10
$16.35
$0.68
$7.72
$0.86
$2.48
$2.20
$0.87
$3.80
-1.5
-1.2
-3.3
0.0
-0.6
+0.4
-5.4
-4.6
+1.2
-4.6
-0.2
+1.0
+0.9
+0.3
-7.2
+0.3
+0.7
-2.9
-4.4
-3.9
-1.3
-2.3
-4.3
-14.2
-36.1
-13.2
-13.8
-44.8
-8.0
-10.8
-25.6
-15.8
-21.4
0.0
-21.6
-13.3
-10.3
-11.0
-2.0
-3.6
-17.4
-12.2
-21.6
-7.1
-16.5
-15.4
Cons Staples
Coca-Cola Amatil
Foster's Group
Goodman Fielder
Metcash
Wesfarmers
Woolworths
7,341.5
$11.87
$5.29
$0.48
$4.06
$30.01
$24.18
-2.9
-0.5
+0.2
0.0
-1.2
-5.0
-2.7
464.0
$7.19
$1.18
$0.95
$6.82
$1.71
$4.88
$1.03
-3.6
-3.7
-2.5
-2.1
-2.6
-2.8
-9.8
-3.7
Inform Tech
Computershare
DWS Advanced
GBST
Iress
Oakton
SMS Mgmt & Tech
Technology One
1Q
2011
CY
2010
-8.2
-15.4
-25.5
+2.3
-20.4
-7.4
+9.6
-14.5
-24.0
-3.0
-6.4
-5.0
-17.0
+8.6
-15.2
-6.8
-17.8
+7.1
-15.3
-24.6
+2.6
-18.8
-14.1
-0.1
-19.6
+8.7
+37.7
-7.4
-9.6
-1.2
+6.5
-7.9
-10.1
-6.8
-4.0
+2.0
-2.7
+12.5
+11.3
-13.8
+2.2
+14.2
+5.3
-9.3
-7.8
+9.6
-8.3
-16.6
-25.6
-32.7
-25.6
+2.0
+2.6
-17.4
-19.5
+34.5
+62.6
+10.9
-30.3
+18.2
-20.8
-10.4
-13.3
+27.4
+41.3
+2.3
+10.8
-10.4
-28.3
-4.2
+4.5
+2.5
-51.3
-1.0
-0.8
-10.4
+2.1
-2.7
+23.4
-13.8
-0.2
+0.2
+3.2
+0.2
+8.1
+0.7
-8.6
+1.2
-0.7
-0.3
-1.2
-5.8
+3.3
-17.5
-8.1
+2.3
-3.7
-14.0
-15.8
-8.3
+21.3
-22.3
-15.8
-14.1
+4.9
-4.8
-4.2
-8.7
-20.0
-3.6
-9.1
-2.6
+6.3
-8.8
-14.1
+2.4
+7.5
+7.5
-3.4
-2.9
0.0
-4.2
-5.9
-7.8
-3.6
+1.6
-24.7
+18.7
+18.2
Source: RBS, IRESS
41
Absolute performance to 5 Oct 11

Stock/sector
Industrials
AJ Lucas Group
Alesco Corporation
Asciano Group
Ausenco Limited
Aust Infrastructure
Boart Longyear
BOOM Logistics
Price
last
5/10/11
4Q
2011
% return over ...

3Q
2Q
2011
2011
3,049.8
$1.35
$1.34
$1.37
$2.27
$1.78
$2.46
-3.1
0.0
-1.5
-5.9
+1.8
-2.2
-6.1
-11.0
0.0
-49.1
-11.6
-21.8
-5.5
-34.3
-6.1
-25.4
-14.7
-5.7
-14.9
+0.3
-14.7
Stock/sector
1Q
2011
CY
2010
+0.8
-25.2
+19.4
+9.1
+8.8
+1.9
+2.6
-6.7
-41.7
-43.6
-12.4
-32.5
+5.6
+28.5
$0.23
0.0
-25.0
-22.1
0.0
-7.2
Bradken
Brambles
Cabcharge
ConnectEast
CSR Ltd
Downer EDI
Emeco Holdings
GWA Intl
Hastie Group Limited
Hills Industries
Leighton
Macmahon Hldgs
Macq Airports
Monadelphous Grp
PMP
Qantas Airways
SEEK
Spotless Group
Toll Holdings
Transfield Svcs
Transpacific
Transurban
United Group
Virgin Blue Holdings
Wesfarmers
$6.24
$6.17
$4.04
$0.55
$2.32
$2.93
$0.94
$2.01
$0.09
$1.02
$18.81
$0.60
$3.22
$17.29
$0.69
$1.38
$5.22
$1.80
$4.17
$1.97
$0.52
$5.28
$11.18
$0.31
$30.01
-5.5
-4.6
-7.3
0.0
-0.4
+2.1
-4.1
+0.5
-2.1
+1.0
+0.7
-0.8
-0.3
-0.6
+4.5
-2.5
-1.9
+0.3
-5.4
+4.0
-16.1
-2.6
-2.3
-4.7
-5.0
-17.1
-10.4
-15.3
+18.5
-19.7
-22.4
-13.3
-27.3
-32.9
-15.5
-10.4
+7.1
-3.3
-5.4
+6.5
-23.4
-17.4
-23.0
-9.1
-43.4
-23.9
+3.6
-17.6
+14.3
-0.8
+1.4
+2.0
-6.7
+1.1
-11.6
-2.4
-7.0
-16.9
-84.9
-21.9
-27.7
-0.9
+9.9
-14.0
-15.6
-15.6
-4.7
+20.1
-18.2
0.0
-27.2
-2.6
-11.5
-11.1
+0.2
-12.9
-0.6
-5.5
+7.1
-34.9
-14.5
+17.4
+7.8
-3.1
-18.0
-4.2
+7.6
+1.7
+16.9
-21.0
-14.2
+2.0
-7.6
+3.5
-0.3
-17.6
+4.9
+8.7
-26.7
-0.7
+32.1
+5.0
-2.8
-2.3
-6.9
-50.9
+36.7
-3.8
-49.6
-8.6
-19.2
-14.6
+2.8
+27.8
+20.0
-15.1
-3.9
-28.8
-34.4
-18.8
+0.4
-7.1
+1.0
-27.1
+2.3
Infra & Utilities

AGL Energy
APA Group
DUET
Envestra
Hastings Diversified
SP AusNet
Spark Infra
4,240.7
$14.32
$4.05
$1.60
$0.46
$0.66
$1.57
$0.93
$1.22
-0.6
+0.1
0.0
-1.2
-10.7
-1.5
+1.3
-0.5
-2.0
-2.7
-2.4
-0.5
-3.9
+3.0
-3.6
-2.2
-1.1
-3.5
+3.2
+2.4
-3.3
+1.5
+3.1
+15.0
-1.3
+7.4
+15.2
-3.7
-6.0
+4.0
-0.6
-14.9
+14.3
-5.3
+1.1
-1.3
+2.0
+8.3
+15.7
-6.4
+44.3
+2.9
+53.6
-4.9
-18.1
Telecoms
Amcom
Hutchison Telecom
iiNet
Singapore Tel.
Telecom NZ
Telstra Corporation
TPG Telecom
1,034.3
$0.77
$0.06
$2.20
$2.51
$2.07
$3.01
$1.40
-2.7
-0.6
-1.7
+0.9
+0.4
+1.0
-2.9
-1.8
+7.1
-30.2
-14.7
-16.5
+11.2
+9.8
+7.3
-15.7
+3.1
+10.4
-26.9
-1.5
+3.5
+27.0
+2.5
+0.9
+0.4
+1.5
-6.1
-8.6
-1.7
-9.8
+1.1
+2.5
-18.4
+17.9
-17.5
+55.9
-4.9
-18.8
-18.7
-2.1
Energy Wld
% return over ...

3Q
2Q
2011
2011
Price
last
5/10/11
4Q
2011
Finan ex Prop
Aust Educ Trust
AMP Ltd
ANZ Banking
Aust Secur Exch
Bank of Qld
Bendigo Bank
4,230.2
$0.86
$3.86
$19.17
$29.55
$7.02
$8.12
-2.9
-1.2
-2.3
-1.8
-2.6
-2.4
-4.4
-12.7
+8.1
-19.2
-11.3
-0.4
-12.0
-4.2
1Q
2011
CY
2010
-5.1
-0.6
-9.9
-7.6
-11.5
-17.6
-7.0
+3.8
-6.2
+2.6
+2.0
-8.7
-4.5
-4.2
-9.7
+81.4
-21.9
+2.1
+7.8
-9.7
+1.1
Comm Bank
$43.51
-4.5
-12.9
-0.2
+3.2
-7.4
Challenger Fin
Cromwell Corp
Equity Trustees
FKP Property
IAG
IOOF Holdings
Lend Lease Corp
Macquarie Bank
NAB
Oaks Hotels
Perpetual
QBE Insurance
Suncorp
Sunland Group
Treasury Group
Trinity Group
Trust Company
Westfield Group
Westpac
WH Soul Patt
WHK Group
$4.12
$0.64
$11.55
$0.47
$2.92
$5.07
$7.00
$21.08
$21.78
$0.52
$20.38
$13.10
$7.75
$0.74
$3.15
$0.20
$5.15
$7.26
$19.81
$13.64
$0.82
-3.1
-4.5
-0.4
+4.4
-3.3
-6.8
-0.6
-7.8
-2.6
0.0
-2.2
+1.7
-2.9
-3.3
-1.6
+2.6
-2.8
-6.3
-2.6
+6.6
-0.6
-13.1
-2.9
-16.5
-35.7
-11.2
-17.6
-21.5
-26.8
-12.7
0.0
-16.4
-25.3
-2.0
+24.4
-19.2
+8.3
-3.6
-10.5
-8.6
-2.3
-10.9
-0.8
-2.1
-11.5
-17.6
-5.3
-9.0
-1.1
-14.6
-0.9
+43.1
-14.3
-2.4
-4.0
-11.5
-13.9
+38.5
-10.9
-7.3
-8.5
+3.6
-4.2
+4.9
-7.2
-0.6
-0.6
-7.5
-7.1
+5.1
-1.1
+9.1
+18.0
-6.8
-2.6
-1.5
-7.3
-8.0
+23.8
-2.1
-2.5
+9.5
+0.4
-11.1
+11.1
+4.1
-12.2
+8.2
-3.7
+28.5
-13.0
-23.5
-13.5
-25.6
-15.9
-29.1
-0.9
-9.1
-6.5
-22.2
-2.8
-2.2
-12.2
-6.3
+0.9
Energy
Aust Wwide Expl
Caltex
Aquila Res
Beach
Carnarvon
Eastnstar
Extract
Karoon
Linc Enrgy
Molopo
Nexus
Energy Resource
Gloucester Coal
Horizon Oil
New Hope Corp
12,426.4
$1.02
$11.72
$4.72
$1.07
$0.14
$0.78
$7.65
$2.78
$1.83
$0.68
$0.14
$2.75
$6.79
$0.17
$6.10
-0.4
-1.9
+8.2
-5.2
-2.3
-3.4
0.0
+0.3
-2.5
-4.7
-4.2
-3.6
-5.8
+0.6
-8.1
+13.2
-17.3
-18.8
-7.9
-30.5
+19.1
-17.1
+28.1
-3.5
-45.5
-33.1
-6.6
-57.6
-28.8
-20.5
-44.8
+3.3
-11.1
-26.5
-24.6
-23.2
-5.7
-48.5
-19.9
+0.1
-27.0
-1.7
-15.1
-28.2
-48.4
-21.7
-9.5
+4.8
+5.3
-2.0
+8.6
-5.2
+12.1
-28.4
-6.2
-16.0
-2.6
+10.2
-15.6
+7.9
-28.6
-10.9
+25.4
+2.7
-0.0
-36.8
+54.5
-2.5
-6.0
-22.8
-2.4
+13.0
-30.7
+75.4
-19.0
+41.3
-53.4
+35.7
-19.2
+6.0
Oil Search
Origin Energy
Paladin
Roc Oil
Santos
Woodside
WorleyParsons
$5.67
$13.23
$1.17
$0.31
$11.36
$32.80
$25.22
+0.2
-1.3
-3.7
-1.6
-0.1
+1.0
-4.1
-14.9
-15.1
-51.8
-3.1
-16.0
-20.8
-6.9
-6.6
-2.7
-30.2
-19.0
-12.9
-12.4
-8.8
+1.1
+0.2
-26.8
-3.7
+18.3
+10.0
+15.9
+14.8
-1.0
+17.9
-38.8
-6.7
-9.8
-8.0
S&P / ASX 100

S&P / ASX 200
S&P / ASX 300
3,202.9
3,926.4
3,923.3
-2.1
-2.1
-2.1
-13.1
-13.0
-13.1
-4.5
-4.8
-5.0
+2.3
+2.0
+1.9
-3.4
-2.6
-2.2
Source: RBS, IRESS
42
Recommendation structure
Absolute performance, short term (trading) recommendation: A Trading Buy recommendation implies upside of 5% or more and a Trading Sell indicates downside of 5% or more. The
trading recommendation time horizon is 0-60 days. For Australian coverage, a Trading Buy recommendation implies upside of 5% or more from the suggested entry price range, and a
Trading Sell recommendation implies downside of 5% or more from the suggested entry price range. The trading recommendation time horizon is 0-60 days.
Absolute performance, long term (fundamental) recommendation: The recommendation is based on implied upside/downside for the stock from the target price. A Buy/Sell implies
upside/downside of 10% or more and a Hold less than 10%. For UK Small/Mid-Cap Analysis a Buy/Sell implies upside/downside of 10% or more, an Add/Reduce 5-10% and a Hold less
than 5%. For UK-based Investment Funds research the recommendation structure is not based on upside/downside to the target price. Rather it is the subjective view of the analyst based
on an assessment of the resources and track record of the fund management company. For listed property trusts (LPT) or real estate investment trusts (REIT) the recommendation is
based upon the target price plus the dividend yield, ie total return.
Performance parameters and horizon: Given the volatility of share prices and our pre-disposition not to change recommendations frequently, these performance parameters should be
interpreted flexibly. Performance in this context only reflects capital appreciation and the horizon is 12 months. Sector relative to market: The sector view relative to the market is the
responsibility of the strategy team. Overweight/Underweight implies upside/downside of 10% or more and Neutral implies less than 10% upside/downside. Target price: The target price is
the level the stock should currently trade at if the market were to accept the analyst's view of the stock and if the necessary catalysts were in place to effect this change in perception within
the performance horizon. In this way, therefore, the target price abstracts from the need to take a view on the market or sector. If it is felt that the catalysts are not fully in place to effect a
re-rating of the stock to its warranted value, the target price will differ from 'fair' value.
Distribution of recommendations
The tables below show the distribution of recommendations (both long term and trading). The first column displays the distribution of recommendations globally and the second column
shows the distribution for the region. Numbers in brackets show the percentage for each category where there is an investment banking relationship. These numbers include
recommendations produced by third parties with which RBS has joint ventures or strategic alliances.
Long term recommendations (as at 05 Oct 2011)
Trading recommendations (as at 05 Oct 2011)
Global total (IB%)
Asia Pacific total

(IB%)
Buy
855 (11)
556 (3)
Hold
408 (7)
223 (4)
Sell
Total (IB%)
Trading Buy
Global total (IB%)
Asia Pacific total

(IB%)
1 (100)
1 (100)
88 (5)
48 (0)
Trading Sell
1 (0)
1 (0)
1351 (9)
827 (3)
Total (IB%)
2 (50)
2 (50)
Source: RBS
Source: RBS
Regulatory disclosures
Subject companies: BBG.AX, CSL.AX, LLC.AX, TSE.AX
RBS has received compensation for investment banking services from this company, its subsidiaries or affiliates during the previous 12 months.: LLC.AX
RBS was a lead manager of a public offering of securities for this company in the previous 12 months.: TSE.AX
Daily Bulletin | Disclosures Appendix | 6 October 2011
Global disclaimer
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solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. While based on information believed to be reliable, no guarantee is given that it is accurate or complete. While we endeavour
to update on a reasonable basis the information and opinions contained herein, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. The opinions,
forecasts, assumptions, estimates, derived valuations and target price(s) contained in this Material are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice.
The investments referred to may not be suitable for the specific investment objectives, financial situation or individual needs of recipients and should not be relied upon in substitution for
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Daily Bulletin | Disclosures Appendix | 6 October 2011
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Equity | Australia

Produced and issued by: RBS Equities (Australia) Limited

Dr Derek Jellinek (+61 2 8259 5848)

a Lend Lease Corporation (A$7.00) Buy TP A$10.75

Andrew Hodge (+61 2 8259 6608)

Transfield Services (A$1.970) Hold TP A$2.13

Andrew Hodge (+61 2 8259 6608)

Billabong International (A$3.29) Hold TP& A$3.65

Daniel Broeren (+61 2 8259 5381)

Global Action Pack

Thiva Nagaratnam (+61 2 8259 5373)

a CSL Ltd (A$29.40) Hold TP A$29.31

1H = interim, 2H = final; SP = special

AIO (Buy) 22 Aug 1.56 1.64-1.67 21 Oct

RBS Equities (Australia) Limited

Level 29, RBS Tower, 88 Phillip Street

Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix.

Kieran Davies (+61 2 8259 5171)

Dr Derek Jellinek (+61 2 8259 5848)

a Lend Lease Corporation (A$7.00) Buy TP A$10.75

Andrew Hodge (+61 2 8259 6608)

Transfield Services (A$1.970) Hold TP A$2.13

Andrew Hodge (+61 2 8259 6608)

Billabong International (A$3.29) Hold TP& A$3.65

Daniel Broeren (+61 2 8259 5381)

Global Action Pack

Wednesday 5 October 2011

Daily Bulletin | 6 October 2011

Australia/NZ Strategy and Economics Australia Alert

Retail trade, Aug 2011: Another solid rise

Nominal retail trade

Large business retail trade

30D cash futures

10Y bond futures

* 15 minutes before and after release

Source: ABS, Bloomberg, Dow Jones, RBS and Reuters

Futures yields are from the nearest contract

hardware supplies. Cafes, takeaways and restaurants again grew strongly, up

as a rise in spending on footwear offset a drop in clothing sales. Other retailing

Source: ABS and RBS

The underlying trend in sales is improving, albeit at a slightly slower pace.

improvement in retail sales is surprising considering that retailers have lost

The Royal Bank of Scotland

Nonetheless, the impression we have is that consumer

Australia/NZ Strategy and Economics

The Royal Bank of Scotland

NOMINAL RETAIL TRADE

Nominal retail trade - total (% mom)

Australia/NZ Strategy and Economics

Sales continued to improve in August

Nominal retail trade - large business sales (% mom)

Nominal retail trade - large business sales (% yoy)

NOMINAL RETAIL TRADE BY REGION

Nominal retail trade - by region (% yoy)

The Royal Bank of Scotland

Australia/NZ Strategy and Economics

NOMINAL RETAIL TRADE BY CATEGORY

Nominal retail trade - household goods (% yoy)

Nominal retail trade - clothing & soft goods (% yoy)

Nominal retail trade - department stores (% yoy)

Nominal retail trade - other retailing (% yoy)

Nominal retail trade - cafes, restaurants & take-away (% yoy)