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120 Mins Chart - Dec'11 Contract
Source: Reuters Previous day's Market Open High Low Close 1871.9 1889.1 1825.5 1859.5 Support Resistance 1865.1 *1872.1 - 1873.3* 1861.8 1876.9 *1857.5* *1879.9* 1851.1 1887.4 *1845.1 - 1846.6* 1891.9 *1840.8* *1900.0 - 1901.9* *1832.6* 1910.7 1828.4 Technical Outlook/View *1917.9* News and Fundamental outlook
• Gold traded in a high volatile session on Friday, slipping more than 2% on speculation/ anticipation of a margin hike, while pared losses on further speculation later in the day about deepening of the euro-zone crisis following the news of resignation by ECB’s key member Stark, while gains were limited as dollar strengthened firmly on euro weakness, keeping pressure on dollar denominated commodities. The euro dropped to its lowest level since 2001 against the yen and slid versus the dollar on speculation German Chancellor Angela Merkel is preparing for a Greek default. Market also took note of worries/concerns that the U.S. Congress was unlikely to approve much of President Barack Obama's $447 billion plan to get jobless Americans working again. Exchange-traded product holdings rose for the first time in eight days on Sept. 9 to 2,149.763 metric tons after reaching a record 2,216.756 tons on Aug. 8, according to data from Bloomberg. • According to the data from CFTC weekly commitment of traders report, hedge funds and other money managers added to their net-long gold positions by 4 percent to 184,371 contracts in the week to Sept. 6.
Momentum indicators: RSI for short-term holding just at the line on the daily chart, suggests market short-term setup still
remains positive, while a strong bearish divergence on last week's high suggests market upside to be limited into near-term.
Trend indicators: Short-term trend indicators still in positive setup, while near-term indicators suggest weakness to upside. Indications from chart and Overall outlook:
Market on Friday failed to add gains above the week’s open, but still ended just above the previous day’s close price. Volumes on Friday were better than the day earlier, but were second lowest of the daily volumes last week. Market still holds above the short-term EMAs on the daily chart, while last 2 days downside is seen held by the 14-Day EMA, while low last week was held at the 20-Day EMA on daily chart. For today, 5-Day EMA is at 1850.9 expected to play pivot, move below which can expect retest of further EMAs below at 9-Day EMA 1843.4, 14-Day EMA 1830.8 and 20-Day EMA 1812.7. Keep an eye at the key trend lines on the intraday chart (120mins chart) which are forming a triangle like pattern. Market continuing in the triangle can see a break upside and test of swing levels upside. For today, the 100-period SMA on the same chart is expected to play initial support, while line level following it is seen as key support, break below which can expect a rise in volatility with weakness. Upside sees P-SAR on intraday chart 1873.9 as initial resistance, followed by level 1877.0, and level 1882.2 along with Friday’s high as key level upside.
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Gold Futures Daily Briefing 12/09/2011 .