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Cynthia Lum, Leslie W. Kennedy, Alison J.

Sherley/ THE EFFECTIVENESS OF COUNTER-TERRORISM STRATEGIES/ Rutgers University/ January 2006 http://www.rutgerscps.org/publications/Lum_Terrorism_Review.pdf Counter-terrorism efforts increase acts of terrorism We discovered that one often-researched event was the United States’ 1986 attack on Libya after Libya’s involvement in the bombing of the LaBelle Discotheque in West Berlin. While some have incorrectly reported the effects of the raid as reducing terrorism (see Prunckun and Mohr, 1997), it is generally believed that this raid increased terrorist attacks, at least in the short run (see Silke, 2005). Again, Enders and his colleagues discovered an interesting nuance in these effects. The findings indicated in Figure 7 point to the short run effects of the attack on Libya (the short run distinction is suggested by the authors themselves, as unlike metal detectors, the attacks on Libya were not sustained over the time series) as well as Israeli retaliatory strikes on Palestinians. Figure 7 generally shows that the attack on Libya resulted in a statistically significant increase in the number of terrorist attacks in the short run, with a weighted effect size of 15.33 events, with a 95% confidence interval of {3.46, 27.2}. Cynthia Lum, Leslie W. Kennedy, Alison J. Sherley/ THE EFFECTIVENESS OF COUNTER-TERRORISM STRATEGIES/ Rutgers University/ January 2006 http://www.rutgerscps.org/publications/Lum_Terrorism_Review.pdf Increasing punishment severity does not work Landes (1978) provided the only findings concerning increasing the severity of punishment for hijackers who were apprehended (Figure 5). It does not appear from Landes’ work that increasing the severity of punishment had a statistically discernible effect on reducing skyjacking incidents. Again, this does not mean that these strategies “don’t work” and methods of time series analysis have become more advanced since Landes’ work. However, given the little evidence we have, there appears to be no evidence to show otherwise. Cynthia Lum, Leslie W. Kennedy, Alison J. Sherley/ THE EFFECTIVENESS OF COUNTER-TERRORISM STRATEGIES/ Rutgers University/ January 2006 http://www.rutgerscps.org/publications/Lum_Terrorism_Review.pdf Defense and fortification of interests not effective The second general category by which we grouped findings were evaluations of protective interventions which fortified embassies and protected diplomats, specifically United Nations General Assembly and Security Council members. These findings are reported in Figure 4. As the confidence intervals indicate, many findings were non-significant and close to 0, indicating that there is no scientific evidence these interventions work. Indeed, the weighted mean effect size for these findings was not statistically significant (weighted mean effect size = -0.45, CI: {-2.17, 1.27}). In total, the findings do not indicate that the fortification embassies and efforts to protect diplomats have been effective in reducing terrorist attacks on these targets.

Cynthia Lum, Leslie W. Kennedy, Alison J. Sherley/ THE EFFECTIVENESS OF COUNTER-TERRORISM STRATEGIES/ Rutgers University/ January 2006 http://www.rutgerscps.org/publications/Lum_Terrorism_Review.pdf Counter-terrorism efforts overall not effective The findings strongly confirm our initial speculation about the state of counter-terrorism strategies. There has been a proliferation of anti-terrorism programs and policies as well as massive increases in expenditures toward combating terrorism. Yet, we know almost nothing about the effectiveness of any of these programs. The seven studies we found, from a total of over 20,000 pieces of literature, focus on only a handful of specific interventions, and often involve the same researchers examining similar datasets, using similar methodologies. Clearly, the most important policy recommendation to emerge from

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and resulted in environmental destruction still evident today. the September 11th .bellona.” Marcie Fernando/ A Research Guide For Weapons of Mass Destruction and Nonproliferation Efforts In The Middle East/ Middle East Institute/ Spring 2008 http://www.nti.edu/Portals/0/Content%20Edition%20GCKL/WMDSRESOURCEGUIDE.html United States cannot effectively counter terrorism The United States cannot conduct an effective counterterrorism campaign against al Qa'ida or other terrorist groups without understanding how such groups end. Libicki/ HOW TERRORIST GROUPS END. While it is clear that U. France. policymakers will need to turn to a range of policy instruments to conduct such campaigns — including careful police and intelligence work. IMPLICATIONS FOR COUNTERING AL’ QAIDA/ RAND Corporation/ 2008 http://www." according to the 25-page statement's lone paragraph on the nonproliferation program.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9351/index1. Examples of such incidents include Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests in 1998. These and other events showed that much more needs to be done to reduce the possibility of nuclear war. Jones. These incidents.pdf Nonproliferation efforts have worked The proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) threatens the security and stability of the Middle East and the globe. Seth G. During the Iran-Iraq war Saddam Hussein’s use of chemical weapons killed and harmed thousands of Iraqis and Iranians. Martin C. we agree to extend the partnership beyond 2012" Charles Digges/ Current non-proliferation efforts insufficient to stop nuclear weapons from falling to terrorists/ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace/ 6/22/2009 http://www.php Nonproliferation efforts effective and expanding The Group of Eight nations' Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction will be maintained beyond its original 2012 expiration date thanks in part to the effort's "concrete achievements and measurable results. the spread and potential use of nuclear weapons remains all too real. military force. and economic sanctions — what is less clear is how they should prioritize U. according to Universal Compliance” showed that despite major non-proliferation successes.org/gsn/nw_20110531_4817. 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States and last years disclosure of an international nuclear smuggling network orchestrated by top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan. Martin Matishak/ G-8 Nonproliferation Effort Renewed/ Nuclear Threat Initiative/ 5/31/2011 http://gsn.this review is that the wide arrays of anti-terrorism policies need to be evaluated for effectiveness or at least be better informed by existing scientific evaluations. In 1998 India and Pakistan both tested their nuclear weapons capabilities which further increased tension between the two rival states.S. efforts.rand. political negotiations. "The assessment also provides directions for the future. While a certain level of progress has been -2- .S." according to the declaration issued at the close of the G-8 leadership summit in Deauville.mei. "Our assessment of the partnership recognizes the significant progress the 23 partners have achieved on the full range of WMD nonproliferation activities worldwide. the report also notes several incidents that have occurred within the past 10 years that have “cast a shadow” over nonproliferation efforts. As such.org/english_import_area/international/russia/nuke_industry/co-operation/34569 Nonproliferation efforts insufficient While praising the progress made in preventing the spread of nuclear weapons since the establishment of the NPT regime.

Va.S.com/english/news/news-analysis/US-Steps-Up-Anti-Terrorism-Efforts-in-Yemen123935209. Nonproliferation Efforts Continue as Nuclear Material is Removed from Bulgaria/ National Nuclear Security Organization/ 12/24/2003 http://www." National Nuclear Security Administration Administrator Linton Brooks said.S.-nonproliferation-efforts-continue-nuclear-materialremoved-bulgaria US eradicates nuclear material from Bulgaria recruits it to join nonprolif efforts The shipment of the research reactor fuel from Bulgaria to Russia was part of a U. Khan network.com/us/2011/02/06/mideast-unrest-complicates-terror-fight/ U. The second shipment from Romania was carried out on September 21. and the IAEA in seeking ways to reduce the threat of nuclear proliferation. an American who authorities said was trained by Al Qaeda in Pakistan in preparation for an attack in the United States. but vowed to continue pressing the battle to cripple the network around the world and protect America from future terrorist attacks.S.S.html Counterterrorism efforts building up -3- . such as Libya’s historic decision to renounce its nuclear program in 2003. Obama hailed successes against Al Qaeda and its allies “especially in recent months and days. scrambling the volatile battleground against al-Qaida in Yemen and raising concerns about the durability of Egypt's stance against militants. "Along with the decision to return fresh HEU to Russia. These are important steps in our overall nonproliferation efforts worldwide. serious concerns remain Bryan Wilkes/ U.nytimes. experts say.com/2009/10/06/obama-talks-up-counterterrorism-efforts/ Counterterrorism efforts gaining ground President Obama said on Tuesday that Al Qaeda has “lost operational capacity” after a series of recent missile strikes and special forces raids. Mr.” He cited in particular the arrest of Najibullah Zazi. Russia. U. Lingering confusion over who will take the reins of power could hamper instant decision-making in the short term. Peter Baker/ Obama Talks Up Counterterrorism Efforts/ New York Times/ 10/6/2009 http://thecaucus.foxnews.-led cooperative international effort to reduce. the Russian Federation.nnsa.S. "The shipment of HEU from Bulgaria is the third shipment conducted under a tripartite initiative (the United States. 2003. counterterrorism efforts.achieved in non-proliferation efforts.. counterterrorism officials need to move quickly to firm up relationships with veteran Mideast intelligence and security services in the aftermath of momentous changes. During a visit to the National Counterterrorism Center just outside Washington in McLean. Baldor/ Arab Unrest Complicates Counterterrorism Efforts/ Associated Press/ 2/6/2011 http://www.blogs. the use and storage of high enriched uranium in civil nuclear activities.voanews. the Bulgarian government also has made a decision to reconstruct the existing research reactor in Sofia to low enriched uranium fuel. Gary Thomas/ US Steps Up Anti-Terrorism Efforts in Yemen/ Voa News/ 6/15/2011 http://www. The first shipment of fresh Russian-origin HEU fuel from then-Yugoslavia to the Russian Federation occurred in August 2002.s.S.energy. Lolita C. and the IAEA) to return Russian-supplied HEU research reactor fuel for long-term management and disposition.Q. does not have a handle on counterterrorism efforts The unrest engulfing Arab streets and threatening authoritarian governments in the Mideast is complicating U.gov/mediaroom/pressreleases/u.. and the subsequent fall of the A. "The Bulgarians have shown leadership as they have cooperated with the U. including the return of HEU from Bulgaria to Russia. and if possible eliminate.

triggered warnings Monday that his radical Islamist network or sympathizers could try to retaliate against Americans or U. interests. Several print and broadcast news outlets say the CIA will be increasing the use of armed drone aircraft against terrorist targets in Yemen. 11. several countries that do not currently reprocess spent fuel or enrich uranium have expressed interest in developing the dangerous technologies. and could thereby acquire the ability to produce nuclear weapons-usable material for nuclear weapons. efforts to capture or kill him after the Sept.It also served. which is -4- . 107-219). and NATO forces. The Committee’s bill and accompanying report (H. since the announcement of GNEP. to send a message to the extremist Taliban movement fighting to make a comeback in Afghanistan.R. The International Atomic Energy Agency already allows for a 3% margin of error in accounting for plutonium in existing reprocessing facilities.ananuclear.S. officials said.S. Raid.americanambassadors. Officials are concerned al-Qaida is seeking to exploit the uncertainty created by the country's political turmoil. Separated plutonium is a fine powder. Scott Wilson. the CIA is planning to step up its campaign against the Yemen-based al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula through the use of armed unmanned drone aircraft and by building a new base at an undisclosed location in the Persian Gulf region to carry it out. GNEP Undermines Nuclear Nonproliferation Efforts/ Alliance for Nuclear Accountability/ 10/8/2008 http://www. where it had harbored bin Laden and al-Qaeda before being driven from power by U. Buried at Sea/ The Washington Post/ 5/2/2011 http://www.com/national/osama-bin-laden-killed-in-us-raid-buried-atsea/2011/05/02/AFx0yAZF_story. U. legislation that addresses critical and immediate counterterrorism needs as well as long-term intelligence issues facing the United States (US). All of this increases the risk that material could be lost or diverted by terrorists. terrorist attacks he ordered.S.article&articleid=39 US Government strengthening counterterrorism efforts On September 24. renounce al-Qaeda and join the political process. Craig Whitlock and William Branigin/ Osama Bin-Laden Killed in U.S. This authorization bill specifically addresses funding for fiscal year 2002 for all intelligence and intelligence-related activities of the US government.According to the reports. are required to make a bomb. 2883.S.html al-Qaeda leader killed The death of the long-hunted al-Qaeda leader. and approximately 18 lbs.-backed Afghan forces in November 2001. the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence voted unanimously to approve H.R.org/Issues/GlobalNuclearEnergyPartnership/Library/tabid/56/articleType/ArticleView/articleI d/125/Default.washingtonpost.S. Spent fuel that has not been reprocessed is considered “self protecting” because it is highly radioactive. who had eluded intensive U. 2001. GNEP (Global Nuclear Energy Partnership) Porter J. 2001.aspx GNEP undermines nonproliferation efforts Separating plutonium under GNEP would increase the production and stockpiles of nuclear weapons usable materials.cfm?fuseaction=Publications.The Central Intelligence Agency is said to be stepping up its counter-terrorism efforts in Yemen. The message: Give up hope of defeating U. In addition. Goss/ Strengthening our Counterterrorism Efforts and Revitalizing the Intelligence Community/ Council of American Ambassadors/ 9/21/2001 http://www.org/index.

usatoday. intelligence collection and analysis.excerpted below. The United States would do well to adopt some of France's strategies. is not a spectator sport. totaling $55 million. We do not sell nuclear weapons to any country or transfer related technology.org/outlook/27057 A2: Funding US Counterterrorism France's counterterrorism efforts are the most effective in the world. 11/3/97. China's Non-Proliferation Words vs. Counterterrorism. Human Rights First charged Thursday in a report pressing China to halt arms sales as Beijing prepares to hold its first Olympics this year. Walter Pincus/ Counterterrorism Official Urges Broader Approach to Foreign Policy/ The Washington Post/ 4/21/2009 http://www. threat reporting.org/i/ib12997. The more a country practices. directly address Intelligence Community shortfalls in domestic counterterrorism efforts.nci. This is our long-standing position. including Iran . like espionage and covert action. China and Iran currently do not have any nuclear cooperation .aei. South Africa (AP) — China's sales of small arms to Sudan increased as the violence escalated in Darfur. China is "a key supplier" of nuclear technology to Iran. this policy is targeted at all countries.html Counterterrorism expands Foreign Policy -5- . . Fourteen Chinese nuclear experts are reportedly working at Iranian nuclear facilities. France has become the most accomplished counterterrorism practitioner in Europe. 10/21/97.N.' Foreign Ministry spokesman Shen Guofang. `I wish to emphasize once again China has never transferred nuclear weapons or relevant technology to other countries. . we do not do it now.htm China lies about nuclear proliferation WHAT THEY SAID WHAT THEY DID The question of assurance does not exist. Gary J. Reuters. Small arms such as assault rifles are the most common weapon used in Darfur.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/20/AR2009042003649. and sharing of intelligence information and analysis across the government. making China by far the biggest supplier of small arms to Khartoum — providing 90% of all Khartoum's acquisitions between 2004 and 2006. nor will be do it in the future.htm Members of The UN proliferating JOHANNESBURG. Kyodo.com/news/world/2008-03-13-china-sudan_N. foreign language capabilities. Los Angles. The report says China stepped up its arms supply to Sudan as others cut back to comply with a U.washingtonpost. arms embargo. Group: Supplies Small Sudan/ Today/ According to a CIA report.17 China Most Arms To USA 3/13/2008 http://www. aggressive recruitment of human assets. 11/2/97. China's Nuclear Proliferation Deeds/ Nuclear Control Institute/ 11/5/1997 http://www. the better it gets. China has never done it in the past. . None of the western European counterterrorism officials we have met with over the last eighteen months would dissent from this view. Schmitt/ France: Europe’s Counterterrorist Powerhouse/ American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research/ November 2007 http://www. exporting over $60 million worth annually. .' Foreign Ministry spokesman Shen Guofang.

however. of which 14 were al-Qaida militants and 687 were civilians. Their own government. and more recruits for a militant movement that has grown exponentially as drone strikes have increased". The alShifa plant was totally destroyed in the American attack. the spread of weapons of mass destruction represented one of the most direct and urgent threats facing US national security. What was different from similar pronouncements in the past from high-ranking intelligence officials was Leiter's statement that he was an "enthusiastic supporter" of President Obama's view that "counterterrorism is part of larger U. The majority of Pakistanis are against the use of drones in the tribal areas on the Afghan border. Aspin contrasted the old nuclear danger of a massive Soviet first strike with that of perhaps a handful of nuclear devices in the hands of rogue states or even terrorist groups. Kilcullen is spot on. According to the New America Foundation.Michael E. should be the lead in that policy. The 2% hit rate of Al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders is commendable.org/al_shifa_pages/al-shifa_3. in a 2008 cable released by WikiLeaks." THE AL-SHIFA BOMBING/ The Euopean Sudanese Public Affairs Council/ September 1998 http://www. a new revenge feud. who says that each innocent victim of a drone strike "represents an alienated family. Twelve workers were killed in the attack. According to the secretary. director of the National Counterterrorism Center.S. Leiter. the secretary of defense announced a new Defense Counterproliferation Initiative (DCI). and we should not wag the broader policy dog. figures compiled by the Pakistani authorities suggest US strikes killed 701 people between January 2006 and April 2009.org/irp/threat/fp/b19ch14. but the truth is that they also kill innocent civilians indiscriminately and in large numbers. if ever. has calculated a much higher civilian-to-militant ratio of 10:1." This is not a left/right issue." Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani is quoted as saying. criticisms of the drone strikes have come from figures as diverse as Sir Brian Burridge. alleging that it was making chemical weapons as part of Osama bin-Laden's infrastructure of international terrorism. The engine of this new danger is proliferation.org/off-site-opinion-section/88-88/4415-us-drone-attacks-are-no-laughing-matter-mrobama Drones Collateral Damage These attacks by unmanned aircraft may have succeeded in eliminating hundreds of dangerous militants. the UK's former air chief marshal in Iraq.espac. who has described the aerial slaughter inflicted from afar by unmanned. Mr. remotecontrolled aircraft as a "virtueless war". "Counterterrorism should be. in most cases.fas. one in four of those killed by drones since 2004 has been an innocent. Mehdi Hasan/ US drone attacks are no laughing matter. and Andrew Kilcullen. "I don't care if they do it as long as they get the right people.asp Counterterrorism failure Washington also chose to attack the al-Shifa pharmaceutical factory in northern Khartoum. recently presented what could be termed a postBush administration view that meeting the threat of terrorism is critical but should not be the ultimate determinant of foreign policy decisions. -6- . despite public opposition to the bombings. Obama/The Guardian/ 12/28/2010 http://readersupportednews.htm Counterproliferation On 7 December 1993. has in private expressed support for America's drones. The Brookings Institute. That produces a hit rate of just 2% – or 50 civilians dead for every militant killed. "We'll protest in the National Assembly and then ignore it. the capital of Sudan. a counterinsurgency expert and former adviser to General David Petraeus. the tail. and those militants who serve below them remove themselves from the battlefield in return Chris Williams/DOD’s Counterproliferation Initiative: A Critical Assessment/ Federation of American Scientists/ 1994 http://www. Meanwhile. policy" and "rarely." Leiter said at an Aspen Institute luncheon this month. Les Aspin. however.

Taxpayers Millions of Dollars/ ABC News/ July 18. and assault rifles on up to machine guns.html Small Arms Proliferation The proliferation of internal conflicts fueled by small arms poses a grave threat to peace. rocketpropelled grenades. disclosing the existence of numerous previously undeclared nuclear facilities. and the Treaty of Pelindaba (or African Nuclear-Weapon-Free-Zone) in March 2005. we [at the Department of Defense (DOD)] are making the essential change demanded by this increased [proliferation] threat.He also stated that with this initiative. and the General Health Laboratories medical facility near Tripoli. The weapons of choice in today's conflicts are not big-ticket items like long-range missiles. [10] Devin Dwyer/ Libya Military Intervention Costs U. . the IAEA announced that Libya had fully cooperated with the Agency and that its future activities in Libya would be strictly routine in nature. 2011 http://www. carbines. and fighter planes.S.S.html Libya’s hidden nuclear weapons program To ensure sufficient IAEA oversight of the dismantlement of its nuclear program.nti. 2009 http://www. according to one Libyan official.org/e_research/profiles/libya/index. U.org/e_research/profiles/libya/index.nti. and shoulder-fired missiles. 2001 http://www. is a drive to develop new military capabilities to deal with this new threat (emphasis added). [7] Ultimately. [6] While previous reports accused Libya of purchasing biological weapons applicable equipment from South Africa in 1994. and is actively seeking foreign assistance to develop its sea water desalination capabilities and other peaceful applications of nuclear technology Country Profiles: Libya. therefore.html Failed Biological Weapons Programs Libya does not possess an offensive biological weapons program. more recent intelligence reports cannot confirm these allegations." Nuclear Threat Initiative/ NTI: Research Library/July 18. Tripoli's BW efforts remained limited in size and never progressed beyond the research and development stages. allegedly hosted Libya's limited BW research program.go. William Hartung/ The New Business Of War: Small Arms and the Proliferation of Conflict/ Carnegie Council/ May 4. . . and despite past BW ambitions. and of unsuccessfully attempting to recruit South African scientists to aid in a BW program. Despite joining the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) in January 1982. and the rule of law. [5] Libya presently possesses a Soviet-supplied 10MW IRT-1 research reactor at the Renewable Energies and Water Desalination Research Center (REWDRC).carnegiecouncil. Tripoli explored the feasibility of an offensive biological weapons program by attempting to procure Iraqi. [8] Following Libya's renunciation of WMD in 2003.com/Politics/libya-military-intervention-costs-us-taxpayers-millions-dollars/story?id=13193525 US Intervention in Libya Cost Taxpayers Millions -7- . is widely believed to have failed to develop biological weapons as a result of a poor biotechnology and industrial base. but small and frighteningly accessible weapons ranging from handguns. We are adding the task of protection to the task of prevention." Nuclear Threat Initiative/ NTI: Research Library/July 18. tanks. and UK inspectors found no evidence indicating an offensive biological weapons program. [4] Libya also ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in January 2004. democracy. 2011 http://abcnews. South African and North Korean assistance in the 1990s. they never even progressed beyond the planning stages. [9] Libya's Rabta and Tarhunah chemical weapons facilities. In 2008. Country Profiles: Libya. Libya signed the Additional Protocol on 10 March 2004.org/resources/journal/15_1/articles/488. At the heart of the Defense Counterproliferation Initiative.

Sharon Squassoni Specialist in National Defense Foreign Affairs. making the prospect of renewed international investment that would follow a renunciation of WMD very attractive. A yearly gathering in a field held this week outside Lahore. At least two accounts record Libyan offers to renounce its WMD programs dating back to 1992 and 1999. A downed Air Force F-15 fighter jet will cost more than $30 million to replace.html>. ships and submarines in the Mediterranean have unleashed at least 161 Tomahawk cruise missiles from their arsenals to the tune of $225 million. The burden of 30 years of economic sanctions had significantly limited oil exports and stagnated the Libyan economy. an estimated $30 million to $100 million a week. or 42 percent of the worldwide total in 2009. a study by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments found these intervention efforts to no avail. 2006 http://fpc. and Trade Division September 22. much of that recruiting is taking place in Pakistan.K. No recruitment effect "Al Qaeda Recruitment Ongoing . Attacks in Afghanistan nearly doubled from 2008 and increased in Pakistan for the third consecutive year. -8- . And as ABC News found. is one of the places where U. March 19th 2010. 8 June 2011.850. others point specifically to the interdiction of centrifuge parts (used for uranium enrichment) in October 2003. and Pakistani officials say al Qaeda has been able to find new recruits. about 4.state. and U.4 The Administration has attributed Libya’s decision to abandon its WMD to President Bush’s national security strategy. Web.gov/documents/organization/78338. the Pentagon said. mostly attributable to increases in Colombia.The Blotter. <http://blogs. These attacks represent the most significant activity by such extremists in the United States since 2001. Compared with 2008. These attacks accounted for approximately 6. Bin Laden death…. Further.U.999 reported attacks. Al Qaeda continues to be able to recruit young Muslims willing to sacrifice themselves to attack American and Western targets despite the death of Osama Bin-Laden. occurred in South Asia. while ending Libya’s pariah status became particularly important to Colonel Qadhafi. Still other observers have suggested that Libya’s WMD programs were not very successful.S.S. • Almost 700 of the 850 reported attacks in Africa were associated with turmoil in the Somalia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.abcnews. in East Asia and the Pacific the number of reported attacks declined by 16 percent. Page 9 • Of the 10. Pakistan. including two that resulted in fatalities. The cost of operating the no-fly zone over Libya alone could cost the U. attacks in Africa rose by 140 (19 percent) and fatalities increased by over 250 (8 percent). mostly attributable to declines in the Philippines. Some officials claim that Iraq’s example convinced Libya to renounce WMD. • The number of reported attacks in 2009 increased in the Western Hemisphere by about 27 percent. • Islamic extremists conducted several attacks in the United States.5 NCTC Report on Terrorism.270 fatalities." Political Punch.pdf Libya’s decision likely rested on several factors.com/theblotter/2006/11/al_qaeda_recrui. Libya’s elimination of its WMD programs was a necessary condition for normalizing relations with the United States. Defense. or 44 percent.S.

org/pdf/npp/ransac_iraqlibya_scientists. The 6DOE Russian Research Reactor Fuel Return program removed 17 kilograms of research reactor fuel from the Tajoura Nuclear Research Centre and returned it to the Russian Federation.Non-Proliferation Rates are Successful RANSAC Policy Update.S. http://www.5 million from the State Department. five Scud-C missiles. The first shipment contained uranium hexafluoride canisters. various components connected to Libya’s nuclear bomb program.edu/~aglaser/lecture2007_weaponeffects. efforts to isolate rogue states and by increasing political and material support from transition states. including enrichment centrifuges.mil/au/awc/awcgate/sa99/14. Additionally. "Zawahiri -9- .pdf World without proliferation Insititute for National Strategic Studies “Rogue States and Proliferation: How Serious is the Threat“ 1999 (page 219) http://www. two shipments relevant to Libya’s nuclear and missile programs were extracted by and sent to the United States using approximately $2. and related missile parts. forces operating in areas like the Strait of Hormuz or on contaminated battlefields .au. The problem is aggravated by declining support from the core Western states for U.S. Partners and allies may become reluctant to support the United States openly. and Scud-C missile gyroscopes.af. and has initiated some chemical weapons-related dismantlement activities. interests increasingly difficult. Libya has permitted many items related to its nuclear and missile programs to be removed from its territory.pdf Rogue states are proving more durable than anticipated.carnegieendowment. Libya has already destroyed 3.pdf Sheridan. weaponized agent. .300 unfilled chemical weapons munitions. April 2004 pages 6-7 The December 2003 announcement by Libya that it would discontinue all WMD activity and remove all of its WMD infrastructure and material has made that state a major nonproliferation success.princeton. The second shipment included additional nuclear bomb program components. This greater number of rogues will be qualitatively more dangerous as the proliferation of WMD accelerates. and precursor agents from its chemical weapons program.S. although the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons stated that Libya can seek foreign financial support. Mary Beth. as rogue states increasingly target vulnerable homelands and such threats become less attributable http://www. It is expected to pay for the local destruction of a production facility. Rogues armed with WMD will aim to destabilize key regions and to constrain U. They also are likely to increase in number as more societies experience globalization’s negative effects. The United States may find coalition building more difficult. These trends will make protecting U.

" The Washington Post: National. knowledge about and understanding of the size. But he is also considered rigid and lacking in charisma.C. the two groups merged officially to form alQaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) under the leadership of Wahishi and his deputy. say al-Qaeda’s central leadership appears to have been severely weakened. 18 July 2011.10 - . or the forces of its friends and allies. What arms control helps with Effective arms control measures are thought to enhance U. forces. and moved it one step closer toward becoming a group capable of global action.org/yemen/islamist-radicalism-yemen/p9369 In late 2008. By 2009. Its Yemeni branch has emerged as a more powerful and active group. forces have launched dozens of strikes this year on suspected al-Qaeda hideouts near Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan. Isobel.org/nuke/control/npt/news/941107-366788.Belarus. .S. urged their members to flee to Yemen and join forces with the resurgent al-Qaeda group there. make-up." Council on Foreign Relations. and other nations’ forces.have committed themselves to adhere to the NPT as non-nuclear weapons states "in the shortest possible time. national security in a number of ways. "The merger effectively transformed al-Qaeda from a local chapter to a regional franchise . this has not happened. when the NPT was negotiated. "Arms Control and Nonproliferation Activities: A Catalog of Recent Events. is regarded as a deeply religious leader who had the skill and experience to help turn an Afghan guerrilla movement into a global terrorist organization. U. Web. Kazakhstan.S. 1994.S. Amy F. Woolf.S.html Zawahiri." NPT is very effective Morse. such as Libyan jihadists Atiyah Abd al-Rahman and Abu Yahya al-Libi. http://www. World & D.S.htm “During the 1960's. Has to do both with moving around terrorists and with weakening the leaders U. Area News and Headlines . Effective arms control measures can also be designed to complement U.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL30033. a PhD candidate in Near Eastern studies at Princeton University who advises the U.com/world/al-zawahiri-named-new-al-qaeda-leader/2011/06/16/AGNk87WH_story. 18 July 2011.S officials and terrorism analysts had speculated that Zawahiri might face competition for the job of al-Qaeda leader from other candidates. in response to a successful Saudi government crackdown. government." CRS Report for Congress. Coleman. Web. and operations of an opposing military force.S.Congressional Research Service. and Ukraine inheriting Soviet nuclear weapons on their soil. In fact. . Britain. 18 July 2011. Transparency measures can also build confidence among wary adversaries. Kazakhstan and Ukraine -. 19 Jan. These three newly independent states -. Soviet Union/Russia.The Washington Post.pdf>. <http://www. In an era of declining defense budget . but it might also reduce an opponent’s incentives for and opportunities to attack U.Named New Al-Qaeda Leader ." Federation of American Scientists. Saudi al-Qaeda leaders. a Guantanamo detainee released in 2007. "Islamist Radicalism in Yemen. According to Gregory Johnsen.S. and China) have grown in number only because of the breakup of the Soviet Union -. CRS . 07 Oct. when the NPT was brought into force. "The NPT: History's Most Successful Non-Proliferation Treaty. For example. both of whom were considered more personable. many observers predicted that there would be 20 to 30 avowed nuclear weapon states today. and terrorism experts say it is unclear whether he can rebuild an organization that has been under siege by U. Web. Since 1970. military and intelligence forces. military planning. http://www.S. Said Ali al-Shihri. As a result. force structure objectives by limiting or restraining U.fas. http://www.S.washingtonpost.fas. arms control measures that promote transparency might increase U. This might not only ease U. France." Federation of American Scientists. analysts. 2006. 59. Web.The Washington Post. Jane A.with Belarus. the ranks of declared nuclear weapons states (the United States.cfr.

security objectives. Ukraine’s receipt of Nunn-Lugar funds was delayed by uncertainty over the ultimate disposition of Soviet nuclear weapons based in Ukraine. nonproliferation has become a tool of anti-terrorism policy.S. the United States employs diplomatic. the Administration has turned to arrangements that seek. in many of its efforts to keep nuclear. The focus remains on nonproliferation. the United States might take unilateral military action to stem the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. when necessary. Before the United States and Ukraine signed an umbrella agreement in October 1993.S. arms control measures helped ensure reciprocity in force reductions. national security policy. and military tools to restrain these threats and enhance its national security. and biological materials away from terrorists or rogue nations. When the Rada approved START I without conditions in February 1994 and Ukraine acceded to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in November 1994. the Administration has turned to unilateral measures or ad hoc coalitions. The absence of confidence in arms control has extended to the State Department. Ukraine’s parliament.S. instead. homeland. forces or those of its friends and allies. or international security.S. with voluntary guidelines and voluntary participation replacing treaties and multilateral conventions. The war against Iraq in 2003 proved the Administration’s willingness in this regard. to prevent proliferation only to those nations and groups that the United States believes can threaten U.11 - . The United States and recipient nations have concluded implementing agreements that outline the specific projects that will receive CTR funding. President Kravchuk promised to give up Ukraine’s nuclear weapons and to press for the ratification of START I and the NPT in the Rada. homeland if they were acquired by terrorists or sub national groups. most agree that efforts to prevent the further spread of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery should be an essential element of U. economic. options without limiting the forces of potential adversaries. where the Bush Administration has removed the phrase “arms control” from all bureaus that were responsible for this policy area.S. For one reason. which.S. national security. In fact. force structure design. US want’s to stop spread of weapons because of possibility of use Similarly. And these weapons could pose a threat to the U.resources. rather than multilateral agreements. proliferation can exacerbate regional tensions that might escalate to conflict and involve or threaten U. Proliferation might also introduce new. Furthermore. Further. they have noted that many multilateral arms control regimes may go too far in restraining U.S.S. Department of Defense divides these projects into three distinct areas: . and conduct of operations. and unexpected threats to the U. chemical. CON – Focusing on Non-prolif creates a worse problem The Bush Administration has altered the role of arms control in U. nonproliferation policy. may diminish its role as a tool of international security policy. CTR Project Grouping Focus of the CTR Projects. the final legal impediments to Nunn-Lugar aid for Ukraine disappeared. Nonproliferation has become a tool of anti-terrorist policies The United States has outlined many new initiatives in nonproliferation policy that take a far less formal approach. In essence.S. in some ways. The U.S. The Administration has indicated that. the Administration has signaled a change in the focus of U. With these new initiatives. The President and many in his Administration question the degree to which arms control negotiations and formal treaties serve to enhance U. Instead of offering its support to international regimes that seek to establish nonproliferation norms that apply to all nations. Used aid programs to help enforce nonprolif programs In the early 1990s. Hence. Indeed. proliferation can greatly complicate U.S. national military strategy. some consider such arms control measures essential to the success of our national military objectives. but this is seen as policy area that no longer requires formal arms control treaties to meet its objectives. such as the 1980s and 1990s.

Georgia. In 2003. Sweden. and other weapons and their delivery vehicles. These projects are designed to help with the elimination of nuclear. and the Netherlands joined as donor states. storage and transport of WMD materials is safe and secure and provide such assistance to countries lacking the ability to secure such materials. such as North Korea. Demilitarization. and Kazakhstan remove warheads. Chain of Custody. At the summit. but eventually agreed in the FY2004 Defense Authorization Act. Belarus. The House resisted these proposals. to eliminate their nuclear weapons programs. The CTR program is also funding several projects at storage facilities for nuclear weapons and materials. The U. Finland.12 - . These are:  Strengthen multilateral treaties and other instruments to prevent WMD proliferation and strengthen the institutions established to implement such agreements.S. to improve security and accounting systems and to provide storage space for plutonium removed from nuclear warheads when they are dismantled. secure canisters. Maintain export controls over items that could be used to develop weapons of mass destruction and missiles. These projects encouraging Russia. Ensure that WMD storage facilities are physically secure and provide assistance to states where facilities lack protection. as well as adopt the nonproliferation principles. These projects are designed to enhance the safety. In recent years. the EU. North Korea wants to take away nukes to make US government happy The Senate and the Bush Administration have both supported proposals to spend CTR funds in nations outside the former Soviet Union. and improved rail cars for warheads transported from Ukraine. Congress has questioned the usefulness of these programs and has limited their funding. These projects have helped Russia. and Kazakhstan to storage and dismantlement facilities in Russia. G-8 Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction Nonproliferation Principles. Some of these funds have been used to assist with scientist redirection programs in Libya and Iraq. These projects provided Russia with bullet-proof Kevlar blankets. and Ukraine to convert military efforts to peaceful purposes. Some analysts have suggested that promises of assistance might also help convince other nations.” Membership and Status. In 2004. Switzerland. Belarus. and Work to manage and dispose of fissile materials stocks that are no longer required for defense purposes. . use. Implement border controls. Other countries have also participated in informal meetings (at the Senior Officials Group level). deactivate missiles. security and control over nuclear weapons and fissile materials. G-8 countries also adopted principles to deny terrorist access to WMD and WMD materials. chemical. destroy all chemical weapons and “minimize” stockpiles of dangerous biological agents.      Develop and maintain measures that ensure that the production. and eliminate launch facilities for nuclear weapons covered by the START I Treaty. Kazakhstan. and G-7 allies have invited other states to participate and contribute to the initiative. at the summit in Sea Island. seven additional nations joined. law enforcement efforts and international cooperation to detect and interdict attempts to smuggle WMD materials and items and provide assistance to countries that lack appropriate resources. Norway. Ukraine.Destruction and Dismantlement.

13 - .. deterrence solves conventional wars Waltz: First.Observers have pointed out that many countries have pledged their support. not actual allocations by national parliaments. the presence of nuclear weapons makes states exceedingly cautions. In blundering into the Crimean War. Why fight if you can’t win much and might lose everything? Third.In terms of the carnage they cause. Second. because large ones risk retaliation. War between nuclear states may escalate as the loser uses larger and larger warheads.. Not escalation but de-escalation becomes likely. but the higher the stakes and the closer a country moves toward wining them. they have little incentive to fight. Deterrent logic dominates if the conditions of competition make it nearly . the question demands an affirmative answer all the more insistently since the deterrent deployment of nuclear weapons contributes more to a country’s security than does conquest of territory. The dynamic may be built into the competition and may untold despite a mutual wish to resist it. States are not likely to run major risks for minor gains. are injured. who is leading and who is following.000 people worldwide every year. it may seem that others must too. abused. and this removes a major cause of war. can be presumed to be stronger than the will of the attacker. The will of the attacked. In a competition of two or more parties. 1995 Nuclear weapons key to deterrence. small arms and light weapons kill 300. Moreover. small arms. If states can score only small gains. striving to annex someone else’s territory. Fourth. As in the past. If one party seeks to increase its capabilities. Think of Kenned and Khrushchev in the Cuban missile crisis. striving to preserve its own territory. deterrent effect depends both on capabilities and on the will to use them. War remains possible. states act with less care if the expected costs of war are low and with more care if they are high. "The death toll from small arms dwarfs that of all other weapons systems. General Kofi Annan Conventional wars kill 300. Knowing this.5 Many more "die. indeed. implementation has been slowed by difficulties resolving liability. it may be hard to say who is pushing and who is being pushed. if not much else. tax exemption. showed more concern for an ally’s whim than for the adversary’s situation. A deterrent strategy makes it unnecessary for a country to fight for the sake of increasing its security. The vagueness of their expectations was matched by the carelessness of their actions. war can be fought in the face of deterrent threats. In 1853 and 1854 britian and France expected to win an easy victory if they went to war against Russia. and site access issues. forcibly displaced and bereaved as a result of armed violence. and inclined toward testing strength first and bargaining second. they acted hastily on scant information. nuclear weapons alter the dynamic of arms races. and that the pledges represent commitments. the would-be attacker is further inhibited. states will want to draw back.000 year Illustrating the scope of the threat from the illegal arms trade. but victory in war is too dangerous to fight for. former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan aptly stated. Waltz First. “The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate” Kenneth Waltz and Scott Sagan. pandered to their people’s frenzy for war. primarily civilians. But need this be the case in a strategic competition among nuclear counties? It need not be if the conditions of competition make deterrent logic dominant. Prestige abroad and political popularity at home would be gained. but that pledges are still about $2 billion short of the $20 billion total. In sharp contrast. Fearing that. A country with a deterrent strategy does not need the extent of territory required by a country relying on conventional defense. could well be described as 'weapons of mass destruction. failed to specify the changes in behavior that threats were supposed to bring. the more surely that country invites retaliation and risks its own destruction.'"4 On average.

Fox put it. Amy F. In the past. no military requirement presses one side to try to surpass the other. within wide limits one state can be insensitive to changes in another state’s forces. Helfand points out that the world is ill prepared for such a disaster: Global grain stocks stand at 49 days.” To reapeat: If no state can launch a disarming attack with high confidence. This would be easier for lesser nuclear staets to understand than it was for the United States and the Soviet Union.14 - . Donald A. triggering a reduction of 1.] Because most of them are economically hardpressed. Web. Also. CRS . lower than at any point in the past five decades.” Instead. <http://www. the impactations of deterrent strategy were clearly seen.] With deterrent forces securely established. because such excess spending does not thrent them. Second. 2006.” as William T. Regional Nuclear War" by Dr Ira Helfand. the annual growing season in the world's most important grain-producing areas would shrink by between 10 and 20 days. Plutonium Disposition. and Japan. when he was President Eisenhower’s secretary of the Air Force. “arguments based on relative advantage lose their point. a lot of species would go extinct as well. This is another reason for new nuclear staets to decrease. As Secretary Brown saw. Will not their vulnerability to conventional attack indvuce them at least to maintain their conventional forces? The success of a deterrent strategy depends neither on the conventional capabilities of states nor on the extent of territory they hold. the effectiveness-of its deterrent force. Deterrent strategies offer this great advnaatge: within wide ranges neither side need response to increases in the other side’s military capabilities.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL30033. but other parties need not increase their armaments in response. because strategic nuclear arms races among lesser powers are unlikely. they will not want to have more than enough. “When dealing with the absolute weapons. deterrent balances are inherently stable. Quarles. arms races in their ultimate form—the fighting of offensive wars designed to increase national security—become pointless.25°C in the average temperature at the earth's surface for several years. These stocks would not provide any significant reserve in the event of a sharp decline in production. R. as Persident Valey Giscard d’Estaing said. Third.fas. A total global death toll in the range of one billion from starvation alone. such as France. Human error and folly may lead some parties involves in deterrent balances to spend more on armaments than is needed. As a result.” [A. States can safely shrink their borders because defense in depth become irrelevant. but to selectively oppose plutonium use elsewhere. it depends on the “avsolute power in the hands of each. argued that “sufficiency of air power” is determined by “the force required to accomplish the mission assigned. Frnech leaders thought this way. rather than increase. We would see hoarding on a global scale.pdf>.” The United Staets has sometimes designed its forces according to that logic. force comparisons are irrelevant.Congressional Research Service. Human hunger would lead to more hunting of animals.impossible for any of the competing parties to achieve a first-strike capability. and in the substantial invulnerability of this power to interdiction. their military spending. The logic of deterrence eliminates incentives for strategic-arms racing. Strategic arms races are then pointless. the interesting question is not whether they will be run but whether countries having strategic nuclear weapons can avoid running conventional races. The point can be put the other way around: With deterrent forces. 19 Jan." Federation of American Scientists. regardless of the way the strategic sitation develops in the world. [And B. “fixes its security at the level required to maintain. "Arms Control and Nonproliferation Activities: A Catalog of Recent Events. No more than the United States will new nuclear strates want to rely on executing the deterrent threat that risks all.” Avoidance of total war the ndoes not depend on the “relative strength of the two oopposed forces. "An Assessment of the Extent of Projected Global Famine Resulting from Limited. France. Britain. the credibility—in other words. the United States policy has been not to interfere with plutonium policies in nations with advanced nuclear reactor programs. an emergency medicine specialist from Massachusetts A war with India and Pakistan would kill billions: Helfand: Earlier studies have suggested that such a conflict would throw five million tons of black soot into the atmosphere. CRS Report for Congress Woolf. Early in the nuclear age. .

USA is leader is stopping the spread of nukes The United States is a leader of an international regime that attempts to restrain the spread of nuclear weapons. to provide the Agency with intelligence information about suspected covert nuclear activities. After the Persian Gulf War. Problems still remain in such nations as Angola. but also all radiological sources. Key Limits and Restrictions of conventional weapons. with reservation.such as North Korea. and to . 2) specific procedures for the destruction or redistribution of excess equipment. The United States and other nations participate in demining and humanitarian assistance programs — over the years the United States has spent over $1 billion on such efforts. and Iran’s acknowledgment that it secretly pursued uranium enrichment for 18 years and insistence that it has the right to proceed with enrichment as part of its civilian power program — both raise questions about and reinforce the importance of nonproliferation policy.000. a CCW review conference amended Protocol II to better protect non-combatants. with over 50. Special Commission on Iraq (UNSCOM) revealed an extensive covert nuclear weapons program that had been virtually undetected by annual inspections of Baghdad’s declared facilities. some even use the indiscriminate effect of mines to terrorize civilians or deny them access to land. reported casualties are dropping. Impact of Mines to terrorize Because of their relatively low cost and ease of use.000 people were killed or injured by mines during 2001 — with concerted demining efforts. APL have become a weapon of choice in many less developed parts of the world. executive branch officials. In May. and 3) verification of compliance through on-site inspections. and periodic inspections at declared facilities. Iran. Cambodia. The CFE treaty also provides for 1) very detailed data exchanges on equipment.15 - . review. which entered into force in 1970. The IAEA safeguards system consists of data collection. and national ceilings on specific major items of military equipment. some Members. Taiwan. However. South Korea. regional (zonal). President Clinton referred it to the Senate for ratification in January 1997 (Treaty Document 105-1). The IAEA may also inspect facilities if it suspects undeclared nuclear materials or weapons-related activities are present. Recurring regional crises — most recently North Korea’s resumption of its nuclear weapons program. 1996. It sought to promote stability not only by reducing armaments. and in some countries over 30% have been women and children. this may be a key tool in efforts to dispose of Russia’s excess plutonium. and India. The International Atomic Energy Agency was established in 1957 to assist nations in their peaceful nuclear programs (primarily research and nuclear power programs) and to safeguard nuclear materials from these peaceful programs to ensure that they are not diverted to nuclear weapons uses. CFE placed alliance-wide. Yet. and training maneuvers.000 mines are scattered across 69 mine-affected nations. almost all agree it has achieved most of its initial objectives. Civilians constitute a significant percentage of victims. and non-governmental organizations oppose any plutonium reprocessing because of the proliferation and environmental risks associated with widespread use of plutonium. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). to the Amended Protocol in May 1999. Congress may also seek to review this program in an effort to understand and resolve the dispute over liability protection. it was extended indefinitely in 1995. The Senate gave advice and consent. but also by reducing the possibility of surprise attack by preventing large concentrations of forces. IAEA inspection teams working with the U.N. The centerpiece of this regime is the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). Many nations and subnational groups do not abide by the CCW. Pakistan. This knowledge inspired efforts to strengthen the IAEA’s authority to conduct more intrusive inspections of a wider variety of installations.000 treaty-limited items of equipment (TLEs) removed or destroyed. and Afghanistan. Its implementation has resulted in an unprecedented reduction of conventional arms in Europe. The U. Department of State estimates that about 50. almost 10. Increased awareness of the need to keep nuclear or radiological devices out of terrorist hands has reinvigorated efforts to control not just weapons-usable materials.S. force structure.

In November 2002. including diplomacy to address underlying regional security problems. Schedule II chemicals have no production limits. but failed in others (Iraq. Only eight nations have not acceded to the Convention. transfer. These cooperative measures have been effective in some cases (South Korea. and production facilities are subject to periodic verification inspections. Schedule III chemicals also have no production limits. and use of chemical and toxin weapons. have ratified the treaty. Ukraine). The CWC is designed to promote the global elimination of chemical weapons. which urged Pyongyang to comply but took no enforcement action. Belarus. when diplomacy fails. . The IAEA applied lessons learned in Iraq to detect North Korea’s undeclared nuclear activities. and seeks to control the production and international transfer of the key chemical components of these weapons. unless the international Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) approves an extension.16 - . The United States then took the lead in negotiating an agreement (the 1994 “Agreed Framework”) that sought to stop construction at North Korea’s disputed facilities and eventually open them to IAEA inspections. However. inventoried by international inspectors. The Convention establishes three schedules of chemicals. Parties to the Convention must cease all offensive chemical weapons research and production and close relevant facilities within 30 days. Inspected nations will have the right to negotiate the extent of inspectors’ access to any facility. the Bush Administration claimed that the overthrow of the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq was justified. accurate intelligence is a key component of both diplomatic and military approaches to nonproliferation. Pakistan). They must also destroy all CW production facilities within 10 years. Israel. with different obligations applying to different types of chemical facilities. but must make every reasonable effort to confirm compliance. however.14 The Convention entered into force on April 29. Limits and Restrictions in the Chemical Weapons Convention. including the United States and Russia. Facilities that produce over 100 grams of Schedule I chemicals per year are subject to systematic on-site verification. in part. It bans the development. and production facilities are subject to random or “ad hoc” inspections. Some favor greater use of sanctions against countries that violate international nonproliferation standards. Kazakhstan. The Chemical Weapons Convention The Chemical Weapons Convention opened for signature in January 1993. For example. In “exceptional cases of compelling need”. grouped by relevance to CW production and extent of legitimate peaceful uses. Taiwan. Since then.N. To stop nukes. while others view sanctions as self-defeating. and no signatory may produce over 1 metric ton of these chemicals per year. The IAEA reported North Korea’s non-compliance to the U. 1997. stockpiling. leading to the virtual abandonment of the agreement and a continuing crisis (see entry below). Most observers conclude that a mix of positive and negative incentives. All CW stockpiles must be declared. Example: Operation Iraqi Freedom Other efforts — such as economic. on the basis of claims that Iraq possessed chemical and biological weapons and might resume efforts to develop nuclear weapons. some policy-makers have argued that military measures may be necessary to attack nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction and related facilities in states hostile to the United States or its allies.186 nations have signed and 175 nations. and sealed. production. North Korea acknowledged that it was continuing programs to develop nuclear weapons. however. The CWC contains a complex verification regime. mandates the destruction of all CW production facilities. Security Council. As developments revealed. we have to go to war. They must destroy their weapons within 10 years. the OPCW may approve the conversion of these facilities to peaceful purposes. Signatories may also request challenge inspections at facilities suspected to be in violation of the Convention. or security assistance — may also help slow the proliferation of nuclear weapons. The OPCW will carry out these inspections on short notice. military. provides the best opportunity for controlling the spread of nuclear weapons.provide the Agency with the resources and political support needed to increase confidence in its safeguards system.

the United States has asserted that China maintains an active CW research and development program and “CW production mobilization capability”. including offensive research and development. A war with India and Pakistan would kill billions: Helfand: Earlier studies have suggested that such a conflict would throw five million tons of black soot into the atmosphere. North Korea) have not joined nor are expected to join the CWC. and an offensive production capability.g.25°C in the average temperature at the earth's surface for several years.” The United States has not requested challenge inspections for any facilities in these countries because of concerns that prohibited activities could avoid detection. The newly elected government of Iraq is expected to sign and ratify the CWC in the near future.Non-Compliance of the CWC. These stocks would not provide any significant reserve in the event of a sharp decline in production. Syria. which has ended its WMD programs and is undertaking the destruction of its CW stockpile under OPCW supervision. some fear that relinquishing its own chemical weapons has put the United States at a military disadvantage in a future confrontation. in 1985. They also note that. Not all countries will sign the CWC Several nations suspected of possessing chemical weapons (e.17 - . a lot of species would go extinct as well. In its 2005 report on arms control treaty compliance. Convention supporters believe that robust defensive measures and the threat of massive conventional retaliation will counterbalance and or deter CW use. a possible undeclared stockpile. We would see hoarding on a global scale. lower than at any point in the past five decades. the annual growing season in the world's most important grain-producing areas would shrink by between 10 and 20 days. The report further assesses that Iran is “retaining and modernizing key elements of its CW infrastructure. chemical weapons stockpile be destroyed independent of the CWC’s ratification. Congress mandated that the U. The most notable new accession to the CWC is Libya. triggering a reduction of 1. Consequently. The Administration has also not sought to impose unilateral sanctions. Also.S. A total global death toll in the range of one billion from starvation alone. As a result. Helfand points out that the world is ill prepared for such a disaster: Global grain stocks stand at 49 days. Human hunger would lead to more hunting of animals . and that inspections that failed to confirm such activity would contribute to a false sense of security.

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