Playing the Shift:  The Economics of Digital Transition 

New England Press Association Oct. 6, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 Ken Doctor New Industry Analyst & Author, Newsonomics 1

The First Tablet
...In the Beginning

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 2

Rupert’s Tablet
News Corp’s Holy Grail?

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 3

Biblical Success
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 4

Today
Snapshot: World & U.S. News Industry Larger Than Life Characters Our Age of Transition Economics The 1, 2, 3, 4 of Emerging Business Models

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 5

Today
A New Focus on Core Readers The Tablet as Missing Link Where’s the New Money?

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 6

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 7

No SINGLE business model yet exists for the press -as we know it -to survive
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 7

Brick by Brick
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 8

Rupert’s Tablet
News Corp’s Holy Grail?

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 9

Analog Press Moguls

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 10

Digital Press Moguls
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 11

Arianna is Everywhere
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 12

Larry Page’s Google Dominates Digital Advertising
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 13

Tina Brown: Endless Media Reinvention
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 14

Schibsted: Spreading Across Europe
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 15

Al Jazeera: A Growing News Company
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 16

Microsoft: A Legacy Company
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 17

U.S. Newspapers Limp Out of Bankruptcy
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 18

New York Times Leads to the Digital Circulation Future
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 19

The Voice of God

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 20

Jon Stewart is the New Authority
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 21

Snapshot: World News Industry
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 22

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011 Thursday, October 6, 11 23

Worldwide Newspaper Revenues

$134B
(2005)
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011 Thursday, October 6, 11 23

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011 Thursday, October 6, 11 24

Worldwide Newspaper Revenues

$93B
(est. 2011)
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011 Thursday, October 6, 11 24

The Big Numbers
Global ad spending will grow 3.6 percent this year TV: still primary driver 14.6 percent average annual digital growth between 2010 and 2013 Digital growing fastest, driven mainly by online video and social media.
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011 25
Thursday, October 6, 11 25

20 Quarters
No U.S. Daily Ad Growth

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011 26
Thursday, October 6, 11 26

14.6%
Average Annual Digital Growth Between 2010 and 2013

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011 27
Thursday, October 6, 11 27

#2
Digital Ad Spending Surpasses Newspapers, in Pursuit of TV

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011 28
Thursday, October 6, 11 28

Google
2010: $29.3B rev; $8.5B profit 2010: $5.4B rev; $588M profit
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 29
Gannett

Mark Zuckerberg: Life is All Upside for Facebook
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 30

At $2B, Facebook Digital Ad Revenue is 2/3 of Daily Newspapers’
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 31

63%
Google/Yahoo/Microsoft/ AOL/Facebook Take of Digital Advertising
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 32

Once-in-a-Century DISRUPTION
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 33

Are you keeping up with the changes?
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 34

Big Disruptions
Print Continues to Decline Audience Moving Digital More Quickly Digital Ads #2 Within Five Years Lower-Cost Competitors Up Pressure The Old Economics Won’t Be Coming Back A Mainly Digital/Some Print Future is
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 35

New News Players Multiply
Public Radio Media City Start-Ups Investigative Players National Online-Only Sports, Business+ Niche

Patch

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 36

Why New Content?
Low-Cost Entry Lower Salaries Cheap Technology Easier, Social Distribution Maturing Ad Markets
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 37

Newspaper Reactions to Disruptions
Faster Cutting of Legacy Costs Digital First Strategies Paywalls: All-Access Subscriptions New Partnerships with Facebook+ Preparing for a Mainly Digital Future
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 38

Replacement Owners & Execs Replacement Devices Replacement Business Models

Replacement News Business
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 39

Replacement Journalists

Replacement News
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 40

1
Thursday, October 6, 11

1
41

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011

So...
We’ve Moved into the Economics of Transition
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 42

Moving from Print and Broadcast to Digital
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 43

Where Are We in the Transition?
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 44

The Road to Digital:
A Tenth of the Way There
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 45

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011 Thursday, October 6, 11 46

We Are Not Alone
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011 Thursday, October 6, 11 46

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011 Thursday, October 6, 11 46

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011 Thursday, October 6, 11 46

CLOSED! Music Stores
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 47

CLOSED! Bookstores
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 48

CLOSED! Video Stores
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 49

CLOSED!
Newspapers
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 50

The 1, 2, 3, 4 of Emerging News Business Models
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 51

The 1, 2, 3, 4 Strategy
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 52

1 Brand Unified Brand Message
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 53

FINISHED THE MAG AND WANT MORE?

YES

NO

WTF?

HOW OFTEN DO YOU LIKE YOUR NEWS?

EVERY YEAR

EVERY WEEK

EVERY DAY

EVERY MINUTE

WHICH SENSORY ORGAN DO YOU PREFER?

WHAT’S YOUR SOCIAL NETWORK OF CHOICE?

EARS

EYES

WIREDEVENT. CO.UK

EVENT

PODCAST
WIRED.CO.UK/ PODCAST

NEWSLETTER
WIRED.CO.UK/ NEWSLETTER

WIRED.CO.UK

FACEBOOK
FACEBOOK.COM/ WIREDUK

TWITTER.COM/ WIREDUK

TWITTER

Do you think you should be writing for wired.co.uk, or are you doing something online that we should know about? Email nate.lanxon@condenast.co.uk with a link – we’d love to hear from you

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 54

2 Legs of Revenue
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 55

Re-Connection Print Ads & Circ Digital Ads & Circ
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 56

3 Products Print Online Mobile
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 57

4G Video is ascendant

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 58

1 Brand 2 Legs of Revenue 3 Products 4G
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 59

Who Knows Our Brands, Already Pays Us, Uses Print & Mobile Products, and is Watching More Video?
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 60

Focus on Core Readers
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 61

Funneling the Infinity
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 62

Finding Core Customers Old & New
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 63

Third to Half of Page Views Come From 10% or So of Users
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 64

NYT’s Uniques: 30M NYT’s Print Readers: 1M
The 3% Solution
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 65

3% Solution
A small percentage of web uniques form a new business

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 66

Making Peace With Fly-By Traffic
(Good for ads, lead generation)
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 67

Core Customers
Keep current ones + Develop new ones
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 68

And the Arrival of All Access for the Top 5-15% of Web Visitors
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 69

Bonus Transforming “Users” into Overnight Customers
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 70

Smaller Daily Early Adopter
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 71

99 Cents a Day -& A Suite of Apps
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 72

Sunday Print/Daily Digital Subs
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 73

The Amazon of Newspapering
“We’re becoming a direct Internet retailer and we have to have expertise to do that. When you do that with publishing, it looks like a different business.”

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 74

The New Virtuous Circle
Known Core Readers Make the Best Targets for Effective Advertising

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 75

All-Access
is the Name of the New Game
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 76

Media Anywhere
Multiplies Potential Audience
(Think HBO, Comcast, Netflix+)

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 77

Boston Globe’s Twist -& All-Access
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 78

125 U.S. Titles with Paywalls
Lee*McClatchy*Morris* MediaGeneral*MediaNews* Tribune*Scripps*Gatehouse, Belo*Gannett
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 79

Takeaways So Far
1-3% of Unique Visitors Buying Digital Subscriptions 2 Models: Capturing Incremental Print Subscriber Revenue

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 80

Defense: + Offense: Inc.
Print Churn Down Small New Revenues Page Traffic Largely Holding Tweaking for 2012
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 81

What’s the New Model Based On?
Divide Universe Between Core Customers & Others 2 Strong Legs: Ads + Circulation Keep Digital Ad Rev Growing Recognize Mobile/Tablet; Provide Media Anywhere
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 82

Sampling is a Key Strategy -- But Too Much
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 83

New Markets, New Audiences
(Read: Younger than 50)
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 84

News Feed, Ticker, Timeline
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 85

WSJ Social’s Facebook App
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 86

Newspapers Embrace Facebook
It’s Where Audience Is Publishers Keep Ad Revenue Hope for New (Paying) Audiences A Grand Learning Exercise

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 87

Destination Sites...& Colonies
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 88

Google Apple Facebook Amazon
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 89

Is the Tablet the Missing Link?
Print Readers & Digital Readers Print Advertisers & Digital Advertisers
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 90

The Tablet as Game Changer

First Digital Replacement Medium
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 91

The Tablet as Game Changer

100M by 2013
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 92

By the Numbers
About 12 percent of the U.S. Internet population owns or uses a tablet, with that number expected to increase to 23 percent by early 2012.   Tablet sales are forecast to surpass laptop sales by the end of 2012, already equivalent to 15% of total PC market in 2011.

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011 93
Thursday, October 6, 11 93

The $75 Tablet
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 94

If You Read...
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 95

Six Realities & The Tablet
1. Print in permanent decline The tablet is a print-like replacement for print
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 96

Six Realities & The Tablet
2. Digital advertising and marketing is where the money will be The tablet offers great potential as digital ad platform
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 97

Tablet Ad Growth

Great Ad Potential
A Brand medium Verticals strong now Video, interactivity key Metrics, standards not yet formed Pricing is higher than online How much per subscriber per year?
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 98

Six Realities & The Tablet
3. Digital circulation revenue essential Consumer willingness to pay for mobile, for All-Access, offers route to new revenue line
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 99

Six Realities & The Tablet
4. Online engagement is inadequate Time spent on tablets resembles print more than “online”.
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 100

Six Realities & The Tablet
5. Individual news brands don’t get lost The tablet is driven mostly by direct traffic, by apps, by browsing than by search
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 101

Six Realities & The Tablet
6. Media Anywhere Era -- convergence! --is becoming real The tablet is a part, with smartphones and TV monitors, of what we all as consumers think we need
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 102

Here Come the Tablet Aggregators
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 103

Flipboard: Publishers’ Friend or Enemy?
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 104

Yahoo: Helping Publishers
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 105

Coming Soon
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 106

On Livestand Launch:
“Think of it as a tablet version of Yahoo. In addition it’s a magazine stand, where you can get different types of content, and it’s also HTML 5 based. What we’re trying to do is create a container that says we have a visual experience that allows us to take graphics, videos and text into a consumption that allows us to display it in the same way across iOS or Android. That’s what every publisher on the planet’s trying to do.”
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011 107
Thursday, October 6, 11 107

Google Aims to Win Tablet News Wars
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 108

Video Aggregation
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 109

In Search of iTunes for News
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 110

The Tablet as Game Changer

What if Tablet Replaces Newspaper!
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 111

The Tablet as Game Changer

What if Tablet Replaces Newspaper?
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 112

Other than Ads,

Where’s the New Money?
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 113

Where’s the New Money?
Sponsorships Events, Conferences Services New Annuals, Life Stage, Seasonal Products City Guides, 3.0 Custom Reports, E-Newsletters
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 114

Sponsorships Higher effective CPMs

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 115

Events
Connecting Readers and Advertisers in New Ways

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 116

Services
Schibsted’s Weight Loss Business

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 117

Real Digital Sales!
20,000 paying digital subscribers, @$59.99 $1.2 million in gross revenue 75,000 print subscribers download for free.

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 118

Kindle News Singles: Big Idea
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 119

TapIn “On Tap”
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 120

TapIn “Explore”
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 121

TapIn “Find”
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 122

Marketwatch’s Paid Tablet Product
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 123

Local News Video
Out-performing local TV

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 124

The Dawn of Marketing Services
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 125

$63 Billion on “Self-Marketing” Up from $22 Billion in 2006
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 126

Marketing Choice Explosion
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 127

Self-Serve Marketing + Telesales + Feet on Street
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 128

Media Become Re-Sellers
SEM SEO Facebook Mobile Yahoo Paid Search Groupon!
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 129

News Ad Business Revenue = 1/3 Marketing Services in 3-5 Years
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 130

Big Issue Margins
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 131

Great Idea...and Join the Club
The Competition: + Yellow Pages and Local Broadcast
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 132

It’s All Interim Technology

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 133

We’re All Interim Technology

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 134

Contact
kdoctor@gmail.com Twitter: @kdoctor www.newsonomics.com

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 11 135

Sign up to vote on this title
UsefulNot useful