Oregon Corrections Population Forecast Department of Administrative Services Office of Economic Analysis Testimony to the Ways and Means

Subcommittee on Public Safety Wednesday, April 23, 2003 Introduction

The Office of Economic Analysis (OEA) produces semi-annual forecasts of Oregons felony correctional caseloads. These include prison, probation, parole and post-prison supervision, and local control. ORS 184.351 and Executive Order 95-06 charge the Department of Administrative Services with this function. OEA develops each forecast with the help of the Corrections Population Forecast Advisory Committee. The Governor appoints committee members. They work in the criminal justice system as lawyers, judges, law enforcement officials, and corrections administrators. The committee provides insight into recent trends and critical review of the forecast.

Methodology
The forecast starts with the stock population in prison or on supervision on a given date. The prison forecast starts with the population on January 1, 2003. The community supervision forecast starts with the caseload on October 1, 2002. At OEA, we forecast populations for the first of each month. We add intakes and subtract releases to get the population for the next month. Therefore, OEAs efforts are directed to forecasting intakes and releases. We use a flow model for the forecast. It imitates the flow of offenders at various points in the criminal justice system. These points are arrest, prosecution, sentencing, incarceration, release, and revocation (failure). The following graph is a schematic of the corrections flow model. Our forecasts of prison and community supervision are interconnected. Prison intakes are partly dependent on offenders who fail probation. Parole/PPS intakes are dependent on prison and LC releases, and prison and LC intakes in turn are affected by parole/PPS failures.

The schematic also shows the correctional populations that make up the forecast. Within these groups, the populations are subdivided. Offenders affected by a recent law change (Measure 11, HB 5100) are treated separately. Probation and post-prison supervision offenders are forecast according to the major crime type (person, property, etc.) Local control offenders are forecast according to their previous status (probation, post-prison, etc.) The forecast is based on current law, policies, and practices. When we model a law change, we work with the Advisory Committee and other groups to get a sense of how policies and practices will change to adapt to the new law. Forecasting Intakes About half of intakes to various felony populations are new to the system and half are transfers within the system. To forecast new1 intakes to the felony system, we study historical trends in Oregons population, Oregon Uniform Crime Reports arrests by age, and incarceration rate by age. We forecast arrest rates and apply those rates to Oregons population forecast. The result is a forecast of total arrests. We apply current sentencing practices to future arrests to get a raw forecast of new intakes to prison, probation, and local control.
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New means the offender is not already serving a felony sentence at the time of the new conviction.

Offenders who move from probation or post-prison supervision to incarceration are forecast by finding the probability of failing in each month after starting supervision. A failure is a revocation of the supervision sentence or conviction for a new crime that results in incarceration. We apply the probabilities to the flow of offenders entering the community corrections caseloads. The result is the number of offenders who enter prison or local control from community supervision in each month of the forecast. Prison Releases Prison inmates serve determinate sentences. They serve the sentence imposed by the Court. Some inmates are eligible for up to 20 percent earned time credit for good behavior in prison. In the forecast, inmates in prison as of January 1, 2003 are released according to the projected release date provided by DOC. This date is based on the sentence, credit for time served, earned time credit already awarded, and an estimate of additional credit to be earned in the future. Forecast prison intakes are released according to lengths of stay (LOS) typical of the last one or two years. LOS is expressed in months. It is the difference between the date of intake and the projected or actual release date. Prison and local control releases are used to forecast intakes to the parole/PPS caseload. Community Supervision Releases Offenders on community supervision have an indeterminate LOS. The Court sentences inmates to a term of probation or post-prison supervision, but many terms end early. There are many reasons for this: revocation, commission of a new crime, or placement on inactive supervision for good behavior. To determine LOS, we use a method called survival probability. By analyzing thousands of offenders over many years, we determine the probability of supervision terms ending in each month after intake. For more information, the Annual Review of Methodology is available from our website, www.oea.das.state.or.us.

Intake Trends
The table below shows how felony intakes have changed over the years. Note that prison intakes have increased over the past two years while local control intakes have declined. There has been little change in probation intakes.
Felony Intakes Local Prison Sentence Local Control/<12 mos Probation 1950 4512 8574 1900 4059 8494 1910 3663 9272 2242 4691 10257 2618 5098 10566 2999 4688 10394 3703 4797 10619 3640 5304 10761 3721 5539 10977 4149 5391 10953 4446 5183 11013 725 -356 36

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 02/00 Chg

Total 15036 14453 14845 17190 18282 18081 19119 19705 20237 20493 20642

Pct Chg -3.9% 2.7% 15.8% 6.4% -1.1% 5.7% 3.1% 2.7% 1.3% 0.7%

Parole/PPS 6504 6032 5645 6042 7029 7220 6699 7510 7819 8235 8299

Offenders sentenced to 12 to 15 months have been a source of prison intake growth since 1997. Initially, this was a possible response to local control (LC). Beginning January 1, 1997, offenders sentenced to 12 or fewer months were incarcerated at the county, rather than in state institutions. After LC took effect, prison intakes with sentences of 12 to 15 months nearly quadrupled, from 118 in 1996 to 449 in 1997. Growth has continued since then, averaging 22 percent annually. There were 1,103 such intakes in 2002. Most of the increase in 2002 came from inmates convicted of drug and property crimes. Many were repeat property offenders. Revocations with no new conviction accounted for nearly 80 percent of 20022 LC intakes. Probation revocations alone account for nearly half of all LC intakes. LC intakes declined in 2001 and 2002. Most of the decrease came from Multnomah, Lane, Jackson, and Marion counties. The large increases in probation intakes from 1994 through 1996 were due to drug convictions. The increase in 1999 was fueled by Assault IV convictions. Assault IV was elevated from a misdemeanor to a felony for domestic violence cases. Parole and PPS intakes have increased each year since 1999. LC releases caused the growth from 1999 through 2001. In 2002, LC releases declined, but they were more than offset by prison releases. Prison releases increased among inmates who had been incarcerated for Measure 11, felony DUII, and repeat property offenses.

April 2003 Forecast

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Community supervision intakes are based on twelve-month periods from October 1st to September 30th .

Impact of HB 5100 HB 5100 from the last special session requires the circuit courts to reduce their operations between March 1 and July 1, 2003. Under the plan, indigent defense counsel will be appointed only for the most serious felonies. This will result in significant delay in prosecution of less serious felonies until funds are available to appoint counsel. The reductions were incorporated into this forecast, and they have a major effect on some correctional populations. We used the following assumptions to develop the impacts. We based these assumptions on court and corrections data, the Chief Justices instructions to courts3, and on input from our advisory committee. No change to: Intakes for violent felonies Intakes for A and B felonies Probation revocations for violent felonies Indigent defense is not appointed for the following cases from March 3 through June 30, 2003. However, if a case already has counsel appointed, it proceeds through the system: Class-C non-person felonies Non-person probation violations The timing of indigent defense cuts on correctional intakes is based on an analysis of the typical time lag between appointment of counsel and correctional intake. After July 1, 2003, courts increase capacity beyond what was typical before the reductions in order to process some of the deferred cases. The increase continues through December 2003. The analysis includes some slippage due to offenders who fail to appear in court. The number of offenders being sanctioned or revoked from parole and post-prison supervision is reduced due to the slowdown in case processing at the front-end of the system. However, current sanctioning and revocation practices continue. The smaller number of offenders presented for sanction or revocation receive the same sentence as before HB 5100.

Chief Justices Operations and Indigent Defense Appropriations Budget Reduction Plan Fact Sheets for HB 5100 Cuts, Oregon Judicial Branch, January 2003 (revised 3/6/2003).

Impact of HB 5100 on Corrections Populations Total Prison 0 -176 20 -19 -9 -3 0 2 4 5 6 6 Parole/ PPS 0 -139 -160 -64 -31 -15 -9 -6 -4 -2 -1 0 Total Comm. LC Corr. Sanctions 0 -1,100 -119 -11 36 -10 -3 -4 -4 -2 -1 0 0 0 -8 -3 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Date Jan-03 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jan-13

Date Oct-02 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Oct-12

Probation 0 -559 54 54 67 5 7 2 0 0 0 0

LC NCR 0 -402 -13 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Prison Population The total prison population was 11,733 on January 1, 2003. It is forecast to grow by 1.9 percent to 11,957 by July 2003, the end of the current biennium. It is forecast to grow by 9.0 percent during the next biennium, reaching 13,036 by July 2005. It is forecast to grow by 6.9 percent during the 2005-07 biennium, reaching 13,935 by July 2007.

Prison Population Forecast Current vs. Previous Date Jan-03 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jan-13 Apr-03 11,733 11,957 12,695 13,036 13,482 13,935 14,342 14,766 15,169 15,510 15,778 15,840 Oct-02 11,694 12,002 12,419 12,786 13,108 13,471 13,810 14,148 14,495 14,805 15,048 Difference 39 -46 275 250 374 464 532 618 674 704 730 Pct Difference 0.3% -0.4% 2.2% 2.0% 2.9% 3.4% 3.9% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9%

Forty-three percent of the total growth is directly or indirectly due to the passage of Ballot Measure 11. Another 7.6 percent of total growth can be attributed to a series of repeat property offender laws passed between 1996 and 2001. The effects of HB 5100 cause the current forecast to be lower than the previous forecast for July 2003. By July 2004, HB 5100s effects on the prison population are negligible and the current forecast is higher than the previous. The change in the forecast after 2003 is due to an increase in expected intakes caused by the slight shift away from community corrections and toward prison.

Community Supervision These are offenders on felony probation, post-prison supervision, parole, or local control. The felony probation caseload was 18,315 on October 1, 2002. It is forecast to fall by 1.1 percent to 18,119 by July 2003, the end of the current biennium. It is forecast to grow by 3.9 percent during the next biennium, reaching 18,826 by July 2005. It is forecast to grow by 1.5 percent during the 2005-07 biennium, reaching 19,117 by July 2007.

Date Oct-02 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Oct-12

Felony Probation Caseload Forecast Current vs. Previous Apr 03 Oct 02 Difference Pct. Diff 18,315 18,652 -337 -1.8% 18,119 18,851 -731 -3.9% 18,883 18,909 -26 -0.1% 18,826 19,095 -268 -1.4% 18,916 19,346 -430 -2.2% 19,117 19,626 -509 -2.6% 19,421 19,942 -522 -2.6% 19,746 20,275 -530 -2.6% 20,007 20,586 -579 -2.8% 20,202 20,827 -625 -3.0% 20,360 20,462

HB 5100 affects the probation caseload more than any other correctional population. Indigent defense cuts are targeted to class C non-person felonies. Most convictions for these kinds of felonies result in probation sentences. The caseload is forecast to increase in fall 2003 as deferred and current cases are processed. In the long term, other factors caused us to lower the forecast. The previous forecast was more than 300 cases higher than the actual population for October 1, 2002. We forecast too few releases and too few offenders going to outcount status. The current forecast corrects these errors. The parole and post prison supervision caseload was 11,160 on October 1, 2002. It is forecast to grow by 0.8 percent to 11,245 cases by July 2003, the end of this biennium. It is forecast to grow by 2.7 percent during the next biennium, reaching 11,547 cases by July 2005. It is forecast to grow by 5.5 percent during the 2005-07 biennium, reaching 12,186 by July 2007.
Parole and Post-Prison Supervision Caseload Forecast Current vs. Previous Date Apr 03 Oct 02 Difference Pct. Diff Oct-02 11,160 11,251 -91 -0.8% Jul-03 11,245 11,308 -63 -0.6% Jul-04 11,207 11,526 -319 -2.8% Jul-05 11,547 11,819 -272 -2.3% Jul-06 11,826 12,187 -361 -3.0% Jul-07 12,186 12,544 -358 -2.9% Jul-08 12,594 12,889 -294 -2.3% Jul-09 12,931 13,180 -249 -1.9% Jul-10 13,234 13,431 -197 -1.5% Jul-11 13,522 13,673 -151 -1.1% Jul-12 13,814 Oct-12 13,867

HB 5100s effect on this caseload is delayed when compared to the other correctional populations. A number of offenders will enter prison or local control several months later than they would have in the absence of HB 5100. Consequently, they are released onto the parole/PPS caseload later. This delays growth in the parole/PPS caseload.

In the long term, other factors caused us to lower the forecast. The previous forecast was slightly higher than the actual population for October 1, 2002. We forecast too few releases and too few offenders going to outcount status. The current forecast corrects these errors. The Local Control population was 1,617 on October 1, 2002. It is forecast to fall by 24.4 percent to 1,222 by July 2003, the end of this biennium. It is forecast to grow by 42.2 percent during the next biennium, reaching to 1,738 by July 2005. It is forecast to grow by 5.1 percent during the 2005-07 biennium, reaching 1,827 by July 2007.
Total LC Population Forecast Current vs. Previous Apr 03 Oct 02 Difference 1,617 1,627 -10 1,222 1,666 -444 1,668 1,702 -34 1,738 1,737 1 1,785 1,770 15 1,827 1,800 27 1,866 1,830 36 1,903 1,858 45 1,935 1,886 49 1,966 1,915 51 1,994 2,017

HB 5100 has large and sudden effect on the LC population. Nearly half of all Local Control NCR intakes are due to probation revocations. HB 5100 delays the appointment of indigent defense for probation revocations on non-person felonies. These cases tend to proceed quickly from appointment of counsel to disposition. The sharp drop during the spring and summer of 2003 is based on both the high percentage of affected cases and the speed at which they are disposed. The population is forecast to increase in fall 2003 as deferred and current cases are processed. In the longer term, most of the difference between the current and previous forecasts is due to an increase in length of supervision and an update of the seasonal indices used to forecast intakes.

Date Oct-02 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Oct-12

Pct. Diff -0.6% -26.7% -2.0% 0.1% 0.9% 1.5% 2.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.7%

The prison inmate forecast is the sum of several separate forecasts of offender groups. The table below shows the forecast change for these groups for the current and the next two biennia. These groups are defined on pages 12 and 13.

The female inmate forecast has been increased significantly. The female population increased by 26 percent and intakes increased by 44 percent in 2002 compared to 2001. Most of the increase was due to theft, identity theft, and drug convictions.
Corrections Population Forecast April 2003 (Current) vs. October 2002 (Previous) Forecast as of: Base BM 11 Repeat Property Felony DUII Felony APSO Repeat Sex Offender Total Prison Total Female Total Male Felony Probation Parole/PostPrison Supervision Local Control NCR Sanctions Total Local Control July 1, 2003 Current 6,175 4,489 1,031 239 23 0 July 1, 2005 Current 6,336 5,125 1,281 248 39 7 July 1, 2007 Current 6,488 5,787 1,346 250 46 18

Previous 6,216 4,465 1,053 249 17 3

Difference -41 23 -22 -9 6 -2

Previous 6,179 5,052 1,220 263 50 22

Difference 157 72 62 -15 -11 -15

Previous 6,197 5,617 1,280 270 61 46

Difference 290 171 66 -20 -14 -29

11,957 775 11,181 18,119

12,002 756 11,246 18,851

-46 19 -65 -731

13,036 929 12,107 18,826

12,786 826 11,960 19,095

250 104 147 -268

13,935 1,015 12,920 19,117

13,471 880 12,951 19,626

464 135 330 -509

11,245 820 402 1,222

11,308 1,278 388 1,666

-63 -458 14 -444

11,547 1,310 428 1,738

11,819 1,327 410 1,737

-272 -17 18 1

12,186 1,371 456 1,827

12,544 1,372 428 1,800

-358 -1 27 27

Columns may not add to total due to rounding.

Risks to the Forecast The criminal justice system currently faces more uncertainty than at any time since the passage of Measure 11 in 1994. The States financial situation is the major risk to this forecast. Since the mid-1990s, we have observed how the criminal justice system adapts to new laws and policies. We believe this will happen in the coming months with HB 5100 and have tried to build flexibility into the forecast. However, this forecast is based on historical data that predate HB 5100. Advisory committee members had less than one month of experience with HB 5100 on which to base their predictions. There is much uncertainty inherent in this situation.

HB 5100 also caused layoffs of State Police troopers and crime lab personnel, reduction or elimination of drug enforcement teams and the closure of several youth correctional facilities. This will surely have some effect on corrections populations. At present, we are unable to gauge these effects beyond conjecture. They are not modeled in the forecast, but they do pose a risk. As of that July 1, 2003, the forecast assumes the first Governors Budget4 as current policy. As policies and funding levels for the coming biennium are still in development, we based the forecast on the first Governors budget as a reference point from which decision-makers can test alternatives. The first Governors budget reduced 2003-05 biennial funding for the Community Corrections caseload from an average population of 32,000 to 24,000. This forecast does not reduce the caseload forecast based on the funding level. The caseloads are forecast based on current practices and HB 5100. We assumed that supervision practice would change, not the number supervised. However, if the funding level is reduced in the 2003-05 biennium, there is a risk that caseloads will fall closer to the funded level.

Analysis of April 2001 Forecast

This section compares the April 2001 forecast to the actual populations during the 2001-03 biennium to date and cites reasons for forecast error. Prison We measure accuracy in two ways: the average daily population (ADP) for a given period, and a one-day comparison for a given date. The April 2001 forecast called for an ADP of 11,001 from July 1, 2001 through March 1, 2003. The forecast ADP for that period is 217 beds lower (1.9 percent) than the actual ADP. The forecast population for March 1, 2003 was 487 beds or 4.1 percent lower than the actual population on that day. This is the first time OEAs legislative-session forecast has been lower than the actual population, and a 1.9 percent error over the biennium is by far the largest. The April 1999 forecast for the 1999-01 biennium was 0.8 percent higher than the actual ADP for that biennium. The April 1997 forecast for the 1997-99 biennium matched the actual ADP for that biennium. The April 2001 forecast tracked well with the actual population through 2001. The major reasons for error are: A significant increase in Repeat Property (ORS 137.712) intakes. With the addition of Identity Theft to the law, we anticipated intakes would increase by 8.5 percent between 2000 and 2002. Actual RPO intakes increased by 57 percent during the period. There have been 370 more RPO intakes than expected by this point in the biennium. Consequently, the RPO population was 275 beds higher than expected as of March 1, 2003.
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State of Oregon 2003-2005 Governors Budget, Department of Administrative Services, January 2003.

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A slight increase in length of stay for Base inmates. The Base is the largest inmate group, and more than 60 percent of all intakes are Base. A very small increase in length of stay resulted in nearly 200 fewer releases than expected by this point in the biennium. Consequently, the Base population was 270 beds higher than expected as of March 1, 2003. Probation and Post-Prison Supervision The April 2001 forecast for probation and post-prison supervision called for an ADP of 29,802 from July 1, 2001 through December 1, 2002. The forecast ADP for that period is 367 cases or 1.2 percent higher than the actual ADP. The forecast caseload for December 1, 2002 was 596 cases or 2.0 percent higher than the actual caseload on that day. OEAs probation data included felony cases that are treated as misdemeanors under ORS 161.705. These cases should not have been included in the funded caseload or the source data. They dropped from the funded caseload as of 7/1/2001. There were about 300 such cases as of that date. When the misdemeanor cases are dropped from the probation forecast, the combined probation and post-prison supervision forecast ADP is 67 cases or 0.2 percent higher than actual. As of December 1, 2002 the forecast is 296 cases or 1.0 percent higher than the actual caseload. Local Control The April 2001 forecast for Local Control called for an ADP of 1,390 from July 1, 2001 through December 1, 2002. The forecast ADP for that period is 137 cases or 10.9 percent higher than the actual ADP. The forecast caseload for December 1, 2002 was 246 cases or 20.8 percent higher than the actual caseload on that day. The error in local control was due to an over-forecast of intakes. We forecast moderate intake growth over the biennium. Instead, intakes fell by 356 or -6.4 percent (see page 4). Starting in mid-2001, several larger counties changed their policies in an effort to reduce their local control populations. The number of offenders revoked from post-prison supervision to local control declined. Some offenders who would have been revoked in the past were instead sanctioned.

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Definitions
Base Population Most prison intakes are not sentenced under one of the special laws listed below. These inmates are sentenced under Sentencing Guidelines (ORS 137.010). We refer to them as the base prison population. Sentencing Guidelines establish a range of punishment based on the crime of conviction and the offenders criminal history. This range is called the presumptive sentence. The Court may impose a sentence outside the presumptive range if there are aggravating or mitigating facts. A sentence outside of the presumptive range is called a departure. A Guidelines sentence can be reduced only by credit for time already served, and by earned-time credit. If the Court deems the inmate eligible, the Department of Corrections (DOC) can award earned-time credit for good behavior. The maximum available is 20 percent of the sentence. Measure 11 Measure 11 (ORS 137.700 and 707) was passed by Oregon voters and took effect in April 1995. It mandates minimum sentences for any of 21 violent crimes, ranging from 70 to 300 months. Measure 11 sentences cannot be shortened by earned-time credit. Juveniles aged 15 and older who are charged with a Measure 11 crime are automatically waived into the adult justice system. Repeat Property Offenders ORS 137.717 took effect in July 1997. It established 13 or 19 month presumptive sentences for repeat property offenders (RPOs). The 1999 Legislative Assembly created the crime of Identity Theft (ORS 165.800) and added it to the list of crimes covered by RPO. The 2001 Legislative Assembly added Forgery 1 to the RPO list. The 2001 legislative change takes effect July 1, 2003. Felony Driving under the Influence of Intoxicants ORS 813.010(5) was passed during the 1999 Legislative Session. Under this law, the fourth or subsequent conviction for driving under the influence of intoxicants is a felony rather than a misdemeanor. The law also makes most convictions for driving while suspended a misdemeanor rather than a felony. Felony Assaulting a Public Safety Officer (APSO) APSO was made a Class C felony by the 2001 Legislative Assembly with House Bill 2646. It is classified under Sentencing Guidelines as crime seriousness category 6. This carries a presumptive sentence range of 2 years probation to 30 months incarceration. Felony APSO took effect on January 1, 2002.

Repeat Sex Offenders 12

The 2001 Legislative Assembly enhanced sentences for repeat sex offenders (RSOs). ORS 137.719 makes the presumptive sentence life without parole for the third felony sex offense conviction. Local Control ORS 137.124 (Senate Bill 1145) took effect in January 1997. It pertains to these felony offenders: Convicted of a felony and sentenced to 12 or fewer months incarceration. Revoked from felony community supervision and sentenced to 12 or fewer months incarceration. Sanctioned5 to more than 30 days while on probation, parole, or post-prison supervision.

These offenders were part of the state prison population until 1997. Now they are under county jurisdiction, or local control (LC). Offenders sanctioned to longer than 30 days are called level III sanctions. The remaining LC offenders are called new crimes and revocations or NCR. Felony Probation, Parole, and Post-Prison Supervision The caseload published here includes all actively supervised felony probationers and parolees. It includes offenders with an Oregon sentence who are supervised in another state.6 Most offenders on outcount status are not included. Outcount means the offender is not being supervised. Absconding is the most common reason for being placed on outcount. Parole pertains to released prison inmates who committed their crime before November 1, 1989, when Sentencing Guidelines took effect. Inmates sentenced under Guidelines serve a term of Post-Prison Supervision (PPS) after release from prison or LC.

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A sanction is a punishment for violating of the terms of community supervision. These are called Compact Out or CMPO cases.

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