2011 Compendium Re Offending Stats Tables

Report Tables
Paper number
1
2
3
Paper title
A comparison of re-offending by adults between 2005 and 2008 who had received different types of sentences, including imme
A comparison of re-offending by adults between 2005 and 2008 who had received different types of sentences, other than imm
Hazards of different types of re-offending
entences, including immediate custodial sentences

entences, other than immediate custodial sentences
Table 1: Proven re-offending rates of matched pairs of offenders where one sentencing type is an immediate
England and Wales
Males
2005
2006
Matched pairs
Immediate custody (less than 12 months)
Community orders
Difference (percentage points)
2,391
50.2%
44.2%
6.0
3,618
54.5%
48.6%
5.9
Matched pairs
Suspended sentence orders
343
34.7%
31.5%
3.2
1,595
42.1%
37.7%
4.5
Matched pairs
Immediate custody (1 year or more but less than 2 years)
491
30.5%
40.7%
-10.2
425
32.7%
35.5%
-2.8
359
378
32.6%
31.5%
35.4%
-2.8
36.5%
-5.0
Matched pairs
Immediate custody (2 years or more but less than 4 years)
1
Community orders and suspended sentence orders were introduced in the Criminal Justice Act 2003 and came into force from April 2005.
Includes offenders with no recorded gender.
Italics means less than or equal to 50 offenders - treat the data with caution.
*
Data based on 10 or fewer offenders are removed as they make the data unreliable for interpretation.
2
Table 2: Frequency of proven re-offending rates of matched pairs of offenders where one sentencing type is a
England and Wales
Males
2005
2006
Matched pairs
Community orders
Difference in re-offences per 100 matched offenders
2,391
226.3
165.5
60.9
3,618
247.2
171.1
76.1
Matched pairs
343
130.0
100.9
29.2
1,595
170.8
112.3
58.5
Matched pairs
491
92.3
136.7
-44.4
425
100.2
120.7
-20.5
Matched pairs
359
95.0
88.6
378
92.3
108.5
6.4
-16.1
*
Table 3: Proven re-offending custody rates of matched pairs of offenders where one sentencing type is an im
England and Wales
Males
2005
2006
Matched pairs
Community orders
2,391
31.0%
20.3%
10.7
3,618
35.6%
23.3%
12.3
Matched pairs
343
17.8%
20.4%
-2.6
1,595
23.9%
23.1%
0.8
Matched pairs
491
13.6%
18.7%
-5.1
425
14.4%
18.1%
-3.8
Matched pairs
359
16.7%
15.3%
1.4
378
17.5%
18.3%
-0.8
*
Table A1: Number of offenders in original datasets and number of matched pairs, 2005 1 to 2008
England and Wales
Males
Females
2
All offenders
2005
2006
Offenders receiving immediate custody (less than 12 m
11,718
12,154
1,271
1,383
12,989
13,537
Males
Females
2
All offenders
Offenders receiving immediate custody (less than 12 m

11,718
12,154
1,271
1,383
12,989
13,537
Males
Females
2
All offenders
Immediate custody (1 year or more but less than 2 ye

3,585
3,448
297
253
3,882
3,701
Males
Females
2
All offenders
Immediate custody (2 years or more but less than 4 y

3,407
3,281
300
260
3,707
3,541
Table A2: Re-offending comparisons of matched pairs of offenders who have received an immediate custodia
England and Wales
One-year re-offending rate
Immediate custody
Number of matched
(less than 12
pairs of offenders
months)
All offenders2
Males
Females
16,302
15,259
1,043
56.3%
55.9%
61.4%
Age
18 - 20
21 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 49
50 and over
3,381
3,489
3,470
2,491
1,721
1,501
249
54.0%
54.0%
62.2%
63.9%
56.9%
44.4%
26.5%
Most common offences

Shoplifting
Assault
Actual bodily harm
Burglary3
Affray
Drink driving
5,353
3,096
1,745
1,081
852
571
84.3%
43.4%
27.4%
68.0%
28.2%
11.6%
Number of previous convictions or cautions

0
1-2
3-6
7 - 10
11 - 14
15 or more
1,144
1,423
2,205
1,766
1,527
8,237
10.9%
18.7%
34.2%
46.1%
55.1%
77.3%
1
2
3
Refers to burglary both in a dwelling and not in a dwelling.
*
England and Wales
Number of matched
pairs of offenders
2
Immediate custody
(less than 12
months)
All offenders
Males
Females
6,822
6,489
333
44.9%
45.0%
42.0%
Age
18 - 20
21 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 49
50 and over
1,768
1,705
1,278
859
583
531
98
46.0%
43.5%
50.8%
49.6%
44.6%
29.2%
16.3%

Assault
Actual bodily harm
Shoplifting
Affray
Burglary3
Drink driving
1,431
1,424
1,094
603
512
284
43.3%
28.8%
87.0%
29.2%
65.8%
10.6%

0
1-2
3-6
7 - 10
11 - 14
15 or more
801
893
1,229
878
623
2,398
9.6%
17.5%
31.4%
40.7%
49.4%
74.1%
1
2
3
*
England and Wales
Immediate custody
Number of matched
(more than 1 year
pairs of offenders
but less than 2)
1
All offenders
Males
Females
Age
18 - 20
21 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
2,028
1,996
32
35.0%
35.3%
*
761
633
328
138
110
41.8%
30.8%
32.3%
33.3%
32.7%
40 - 49
50 and over
53
5
*
*

Actual bodily harm
2
Burglary
3
Grievous bodily harm
Affray
Robbery
Violent disorder
640
376
284
274
113
60
26.4%
60.9%
19.4%
32.1%
41.6%
18.3%

0
1-2
3-6
7 - 10
11 - 14
15 or more
295
287
420
228
172
626
8.5%
16.4%
26.4%
32.9%
43.6%
60.2%
Refers to wounding with intent to do grievous bodily harm and wounding or inflicting grievous bodily harm.
*
England and Wales
Immediate custody
Number of matched
(2 years or more but
pairs of offenders
less than 4 years)
All offenders1
Males
Females
1,518
1,495
23
32.9%
33.3%
*
Age
18 - 20
21 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 49
50 and over
552
488
235
133
61
38
11
33.7%
32.0%
33.2%
35.3%
37.7%
*
*

Robbery
Grievous bodily harm2
Burglary3
Actual bodily harm
Violent disorder
Death by dangerous driving
527
393
383
90
29
24
34.3%
21.9%
53.3%
16.7%
*
*

0
171
6.4%
1-2
3-6
7 - 10
11 - 14
15 or more
211
267
174
137
558
15.2%
25.1%
28.7%
33.6%
52.5%
Refers to wounding with intent to do grievous bodily harm and wounding or inflicting grievous bodily harm.
*
Table B1: Logistic regression model output showing the statistically significant offender and offence character
Immediate custody <12M (1) compared with
community orders (0)
Offender characteristics
Male
Age
Age (Squared)
Age of First Offence
Age of First Offence (Squared)
Number of previous offences
Number of previous offences (Squared)
Number of previous convictions
Number of previous convictions (Squared)
Number of previous custodial sentences
Number of previous custodial sentences (squared)
Copas rate
Offence Category
Violence
Robbery
Public order or riot
Sexual
Sexual (child)
Domestic burglary
Other burglary
Theft
Handling
Fraud and forgery
Absconding or bail offences
Taking and driving away and related offences
Theft from vehicles
Other motoring offences
Drink driving offences
Criminal or malicious damage
Drugs import/export/ production/supply
Drugs possession/small scale supply
Other
Ethnicity
Unknown
White North European
White Sourth European
Black
Asian
Chinese, Japanese or SE Asian
Coefficient
0.316
0.142
0.024
0.059
-0.030
0.368
-0.057
-0.853
0.066
0.510
-0.038
1.066
SE
0.021
0.013
0.006
0.016
0.005
0.027
0.005
0.034
0.004
0.017
0.003
0.019
1.271
-0.278
0.529
1.293
0.024
-0.169
-0.311
-0.442
0.533
0.271
-0.068
-0.326
0.217
-0.470
-0.892
-0.552
-1.004
0.573
reference category
0.111
0.030
0.065
0.081
0.045
0.035
0.019
0.048
0.036
0.035
0.042
0.052
0.025
0.031
0.038
0.070
0.036
0.037
-0.080
0.592
0.386
0.310
1.746
reference category
0.056
0.072
0.059
0.062
0.104
Middle Eastern
Constant
0.925
-1.244
0.093
0.060
e one sentencing type is an immediate custodial sentence in England and Wales by gender, 2005 1 to 2008
Males
Females
2007
2008
2005
2006
2007
3,986
56.6%
49.8%
6.8
5,264
58.9%
50.6%
8.3
166
53.6%
41.6%
12.0
218
55.0%
49.1%
6.0
287
65.2%
51.9%
13.2
2,002
45.8%
38.9%
6.8
2,549
47.6%
38.8%
8.8
22
*
*
*
85
50.6%
44.7%
5.9
108
36.1%
34.3%
1.9
463
35.4%
42.1%
-6.7
617
40.7%
45.1%
-4.4
6
*
*
*
8
*
*
*
3
*
*
*
330
428
10
33.0%
35.7%
36.7%
-3.6
43.0%
-7.2
*
*
*
*
*
*
nd came into force from April 2005.
ffenders where one sentencing type is an immediate custodial sentence in England and Wales by gender, 2005 1 to 2008
Number of matched pa
Males
2007
2008
2005
Females
2006
218
283.5
169.3
114.2
2007
3,986
262.1
187.4
74.8
5,264
272.0
190.8
81.2
166
225.3
136.7
88.6
2,002
182.2
122.0
60.2
2,549
187.9
122.8
65.1
22
90.9
*
*
85
230.6
144.7
85.9
108
198.1
129.6
68.5
463
101.7
147.5
-45.8
617
109.1
153.8
-44.7
330
82.4
100.0
428
107.7
135.0
10
*
*
*
*
*
*
9
*
*
287
340.1
227.5
112.5
*
*
*
3
*
*
*
*
-17.6
-27.3
ers where one sentencing type is an immediate custodial sentence in England and Wales by gender, 2005 1 to 2008
Males
2007
2008
2005
3,986
36.3%
23.8%
12.5
5,264
37.4%
23.1%
14.3
166
29.5%
15.1%
14.5
2,002
26.3%
24.8%
1.5
2,549
25.2%
24.9%
0.3
22
*
*
*
463
15.1%
20.5%
-5.4
617
19.3%
21.9%
-2.6
330
15.5%
18.5%
-3.0
428
23.8%
21.3%
2.6
10
Females
2006
218
30.7%
20.6%
10.1
287
46.3%
23.3%
23.0
85
28.2%
24.7%
3.5
108
20.4%
23.1%
-2.8
*
*
*
*
*
*
9
*
*
*
2007
*
*
*
3
*
*
*
*
*
*
tched pairs, 2005 1 to 2008
2007
2008
receiving immediate custody (less than 12 months)
13,165
17,274
1,533
1,972
14,698
19,248
receiving immediate custody (less than 12 months)

13,165
1,533
14,698
te custody (1 year or more but less than 2 years)

3,645
240
3,885
2005
2006
2007
Offenders receiving community orders
19,664
44,304
48,447
3,384
7,756
8,705
23,067
52,118
57,220
17,274
1,972
19,248
Offenders receiving suspended sentence orders

1,525
10,175
14,392
260
1,584
2,283
1,786
11,767
16,695
4,333
354
4,690
Offenders receiving immediate custody (less than 12 months)

11,718
12,154
13,165
1,271
1,383
1,533
12,989
13,537
14,698
e custody (2 years or more but less than 4 years)

3,235
211
3,446
3,720
238
3,959

3,585
3,448
3,645
297
253
240
3,882
3,701
3,885
ho have received an immediate custodial sentence of 12 months or less or a community order, 2005 1 to 2008
Community orders
Difference
(percentage points)
Frequency of re-offending
Immediate custody
(less than 12
Community orders
months)
Difference
49.1%
48.9%
51.6%
7.2
7.0
9.8
259.2
256.4
299.6
182.9
181.3
206.5
76.3
75.1
93.1
50.4%
48.8%
56.3%
54.4%
46.7%
30.6%
11.2%
3.5
5.2
5.9
9.5
10.3
13.9
15.3
215.1
241.7
315.2
315.6
267.8
193.7
92.8
172.7
178.2
229.2
212.2
166.0
105.3
34.1
42.4
63.5
86.1
103.3
101.8
88.5
58.6
75.2%
33.9%
24.0%
57.0%
27.7%
13.3%
9.2
9.6
3.4
11.0
0.5
-1.8
486.3
134.7
70.9
277.6
72.8
29.1
343.1
85.9
54.7
193.0
62.3
24.0
143.2
48.8
16.2
84.6
10.4
5.1
9.4%
18.7%
30.3%
39.0%
48.9%
67.1%
1.5
0.0
3.9
7.1
6.2
10.2
21.0
45.7
97.0
153.5
202.4
405.7
17.0
38.6
68.6
112.7
150.2
282.6
4.0
7.2
28.3
40.7
52.2
123.2
ho have received an immediate custodial sentence of 12 months or less or a suspended sentence order, 2005 1 to 2008
Suspended
sentence orders
Difference
(percentage points)
Immediate custody
(less than 12
months)
Suspended
sentence orders
Difference
38.1%
38.2%
36.0%
6.8
6.8
6.0
180.3
178.9
208.4
119.2
118.8
126.7
61.1
60.1
81.7
40.6%
37.0%
44.0%
42.4%
33.6%
22.8%
*
5.4
6.5
6.8
7.2
11.0
6.4
*
154.4
169.3
232.7
222.2
178.9
125.8
92.9
112.4
110.0
155.6
148.9
117.3
55.7
20.4
41.9
59.3
77.2
73.3
61.6
70.1
72.4
33.6%
23.9%
77.2%
26.7%
56.1%
8.5%
9.7
4.9
9.8
2.5
9.8
2.1
129.0
73.5
512.9
66.0
272.7
24.6
77.9
48.1
344.4
60.4
181.6
14.8
51.1
25.4
168.5
5.6
91.0
9.9
7.2%
16.2%
25.1%
34.2%
40.8%
63.9%
2.4
1.2
6.3
6.5
8.7
10.2
18.7
32.8
74.8
108.4
147.5
378.1
11.9
25.1
50.4
78.5
99.4
245.3
6.9
7.7
24.3
30.0
48.2
132.8
ho have received an immediate custodial sentence of 12 months or an immediate custodial sentence of more than one year but
Immediate custody
(less than 12
months)
Difference
(percentage points)
Immediate custody
(more than 1 year
but less than 2)
Immediate custody
(less than 12
months)
Difference
41.0%
41.3%
*
-6.0
-6.0
*
100.8
101.4
65.6
140.2
141.1
87.5
-39.4
-39.7
-21.9
44.8%
37.8%
43.0%
38.4%
38.2%
-3.0
-7.0
-10.7
-5.1
-5.5
111.0
86.1
103.4
102.9
135.5
139.8
124.8
160.4
140.6
190.0
-28.8
-38.7
-57.0
-37.7
-54.5
24.5%
*
*
*
43.4
*
92.5
*
-49.1
*
35.8%
71.3%
19.0%
34.7%
43.4%
21.7%
-9.4
-10.4
0.4
-2.6
-1.8
-3.3
60.2
197.3
34.9
71.5
145.1
35.0
93.8
304.5
39.1
90.5
134.5
41.7
-33.6
-107.2
-4.2
-19.0
10.6
-6.7
7.5%
19.9%
31.7%
39.9%
50.6%
70.4%
1.0
-3.5
-5.2
-7.0
-7.0
-10.2
14.6
24.7
57.4
68.4
136.6
207.3
16.3
38.0
72.1
99.6
137.8
306.7
-1.7
-13.2
-14.8
-31.1
-1.2
-99.4
ho have received an immediate custodial sentence of more than one year but less than two years or an immediate custodial sen
Immediate custody
(more than 1 year
but less than 2)
Difference
(percentage points)
Immediate custody Immediate custody

(2 years or more but (more than 1 year
less than 4 years)
but less than 2)
Difference
37.5%
38.1%
*
-4.7
-4.8
*
94.0
95.2
*
107.8
109.4
*
-13.8
-14.2
*
38.0%
36.7%
35.7%
44.4%
39.3%
31.6%
*
-4.3
-4.7
-2.6
-9.0
-1.6
*
*
84.4
94.9
107.7
112.0
121.3
55.3
*
100.9
96.3
122.6
144.4
144.3
92.1
*
-16.5
-1.4
-14.9
-32.3
-23.0
-36.8
*
39.3%
20.9%
61.9%
21.1%
*
*
-4.9
1.0
-8.6
-4.4
*
*
86.1
61.3
172.8
34.4
*
*
105.1
42.7
211.7
51.1
51.7
*
-19.0
18.6
-38.9
-16.7
*
*
9.4%
-2.9
18.7
14.6
4.1
14.2%
27.0%
28.2%
47.4%
60.6%
0.9
-1.9
0.6
-13.9
-8.1
30.8
53.6
90.2
92.0
162.0
24.2
53.2
63.2
129.9
202.5
6.6
0.4
27.0
-38.0
-40.5
gnificant offender and offence characteristics that affect offenders receiving a custodial sentencing outcome, 2008
ustody <12M (1) compared with

ommunity orders (0)
Suspended orders (1) compared with immediate

custody <12M (0)
P-Value
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
Coefficient
-0.324
-0.089
-0.016
-0.048
0.022
-0.146
0.047
0.625
-0.063
-0.423
0.032
-0.807
SE
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.588
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.107
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.338
0.034
-0.728
-0.791
0.404
-0.186
-0.472
0.043
-0.422
-1.230
-0.309
-0.322
-0.242
0.029
-0.315
0.846
0.310
-0.583
reference category
0.091
0.034
0.079
0.087
0.046
0.043
0.024
0.057
0.040
0.053
0.053
0.069
0.028
0.037
0.052
0.072
0.042
0.042
< 0.001
0.322
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.452
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.436
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.154
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.021
-0.578
-0.349
-0.185
-1.717
reference category
0.064
0.085
0.067
0.071
0.132
0.737
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.009
< 0.001
0.025
0.015
0.007
0.018
0.006
0.034
0.006
0.044
0.007
0.022
0.004
0.022
P-Value
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.026
0.008
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
-0.864
0.436
0.112
0.068
< 0.001
< 0.001
Number of matched pairs of offenders a

2
All offenders
2008
2005
2006
2007
2008
372
65.6%
57.3%
8.3
2,557
50.4%
44.0%
6.4
3,836
54.5%
48.6%
5.9
4,273
57.2%
50.0%
7.2
5,636
59.4%
51.1%
8.3
118
43.2%
34.7%
8.5
365
34.5%
30.7%
3.8
1,680
42.6%
38.0%
4.5
2,110
45.3%
38.7%
6.6
2,667
47.4%
38.6%
8.8
15
*
*
*
497
30.2%
40.4%
-10.3
433
32.8%
35.3%
-2.5
466
35.4%
42.1%
-6.7
632
40.0%
44.5%
-4.4
369
387
333
429
31.7%
31.0%
32.7%
35.7%
*
*
34.4%
-2.7
35.7%
-4.7
36.3%
-3.6
42.9%
-7.2
les by gender, 2005 1 to 2008

Number of matched pairs of offenders and number of offences per 100 matched offenders
2
All offenders
2008
2005
2006
2007
2008
372
2,557
3,836
4,273
5,636
311.0
226.2
249.3
267.4
274.6
243.3
163.6
171.0
190.1
194.3
67.7
62.7
78.3
77.3
80.3
118
223.7
127.1
96.6
15
*
86.7
*
1
*
*
365
127.7
97.3
30.4
1,680
173.8
113.9
59.9
2,110
183.0
122.4
60.6
2,667
189.5
122.9
66.5
497
91.1
135.2
-44.1
433
100.7
119.6
-18.9
466
101.7
148.5
-46.8
632
107.8
152.2
-44.5
369
92.4
86.2
387
91.2
105.9
333
81.7
99.1
429
107.5
134.7
6.2
-14.7
-17.4
-27.3
y gender, 2005 1 to 2008
2008
372
43.0%
25.8%
17.2
Number of matched pairs of offenders and re-offending custody rates (%)

All offenders2
2005
2006
2007
2008
2,557
3,836
4,273
5,636
30.9%
35.3%
37.0%
37.8%
20.0%
23.1%
23.8%
23.3%
11.0
12.2
13.2
14.5
118
23.7%
20.3%
3.4
365
17.5%
19.7%
-2.2
1,680
24.2%
23.2%
1.0
2,110
26.0%
24.7%
1.3
2,667
25.1%
24.7%
0.4
15
*
*
*
497
13.5%
18.5%
-5.0
433
14.1%
17.8%
-3.7
466
15.0%
20.6%
-5.6
632
19.0%
21.5%
-2.5
*
*
*
369
16.3%
14.9%
1.4
387
17.3%
17.8%
-0.5
333
15.3%
18.3%
-3.0
429
23.8%
21.2%
2.6
52,020
9,588
61,669
Number of offenders and number of matched pairs

2005
2006
2007
2008
Immediate custody (less than 12 months) matched with community
2,391
3,618
3,986
5,264
166
218
287
372
2,557
3,836
4,273
5,636
15,664
2,541
18,222
Immediate custody (less than 12 months) matched with suspended

343
1,595
2,002
2,549
22
85
108
118
365
1,680
2,110
2,667
tody (less than 12 months)

17,274
1,972
19,248
Immediate custody (1 year or more but less than 2 years) matched

491
425
463
617
6
8
3
15
497
433
466
632
2008
mmunity orders
ded sentence orders
re but less than 2 years)

4,333
354
4,690
Immediate custody (2 years or more but less than 4 years) matched

359
378
330
428
10
9
3
1
369
387
333
429
Number of matched pairs of offenders and different measures of re-offending

Re-offending custody rates
Immediate custody
Difference
(less than 12
Community orders
(percentage points)
months)
35.9%
35.7%
39.2%
22.9%
22.9%
22.3%
13.1
12.8
16.9
30.9%
32.2%
42.2%
44.6%
37.1%
29.0%
16.5%
22.1%
21.9%
28.9%
26.5%
21.3%
12.2%
*
8.8
10.3
13.3
18.1
15.8
16.9
*
64.2%
22.5%
8.9%
42.0%
7.9%
3.3%
42.4%
11.1%
6.0%
27.5%
6.2%
*
21.8
11.5
2.9
14.5
1.6
*
3.1%
5.2%
13.3%
23.0%
31.4%
55.5%
1.1%
3.6%
7.4%
12.7%
17.7%
36.5%
1.9
1.6
5.9
10.2
13.7
19.0
ntence order, 2005 1 to 2008

Immediate custody
(less than 12
months)
Suspended
sentence orders
Difference
(percentage points)
24.7%
24.8%
23.1%
24.1%
24.2%
21.6%
0.7
0.6
1.5
21.9%
22.2%
31.3%
30.3%
28.3%
16.4%
*
22.5%
21.1%
30.6%
31.7%
23.8%
14.1%
*
-0.6
1.1
0.7
-1.4
4.5
2.3
*
21.1%
10.5%
65.0%
7.6%
39.3%
*
20.4%
10.5%
63.2%
10.9%
35.7%
*
0.7
0.0
1.8
-3.3
3.5
*
1.7%
2.9%
10.8%
16.9%
25.4%
50.4%
1.7%
5.2%
10.1%
18.3%
24.1%
47.8%
0.0
-2.2
0.7
-1.5
1.3
2.6
sentence of more than one year but less than two years, 2005 to 2008
Immediate custody
(more than 1 year
but less than 2)
Immediate custody
(less than 12
months)
Difference
(percentage points)
15.7%
15.9%
*
19.8%
20.0%
*
-4.1
-4.1
*
15.2%
14.8%
19.5%
15.2%
16.4%
21.8%
16.4%
20.7%
18.8%
23.6%
-6.6
-1.6
-1.2
-3.6
-7.3
*
*
*
*
*
*
10.2%
34.6%
4.9%
8.8%
19.5%
*
12.2%
47.3%
*
11.3%
18.6%
*
-2.0
-12.8
*
-2.6
0.9
*
*
*
8.3%
9.2%
18.6%
35.6%
*
*
7.6%
13.6%
25.6%
44.4%
*
*
0.7
-4.4
-7.0
-8.8
years or an immediate custodial sentence of more than two years but less than 4 years, 2005 to 2008
Immediate custody Immediate custody
(2 years or more but (more than 1 year
less than 4 years)
but less than 2)
Difference
(percentage points)
18.4%
18.7%
*
18.2%
18.5%
*
0.3
0.2
*
17.4%
17.2%
19.6%
24.1%
26.2%
*
*
18.5%
16.2%
18.3%
25.6%
21.3%
*
*
-1.1
1.0
1.3
-1.5
4.9
*
*
16.7%
11.2%
35.2%
*
*
*
17.6%
6.9%
37.9%
*
*
*
-0.9
4.3
-2.6
*
*
*
6.2%
11.2%
16.1%
19.7%
31.5%
*
7.1%
10.3%
21.9%
35.5%
*
4.1
5.7
-2.2
-3.9
encing outcome, 2008

Immediate custody >=12 & <24M (1) compared with
immediate custody <12M (0)
Coefficient
0.179
-0.030
-0.015
-0.325
0.057
0.185
-0.018
-0.149
0.008
0.198
-0.010
-0.589
SE
0.048
0.022
0.010
0.027
0.007
0.048
0.009
0.054
0.006
0.037
0.007
0.028
P-Value
< 0.001
0.171
0.159
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.058
0.006
0.158
< 0.001
0.136
< 0.001
2.582
0.218
0.265
1.145
1.838
0.054
-1.313
0.169
-0.214
-3.506
-0.094
-1.151
-0.790
-3.070
-0.383
1.649
0.711
-0.598
reference category
0.083
0.050
0.092
0.088
0.048
0.058
0.049
0.081
0.063
0.269
0.076
0.141
0.052
0.216
0.085
0.083
0.055
0.072
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.004
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.353
< 0.001
0.037
0.001
< 0.001
0.217
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
-0.065
-0.517
-0.325
-0.108
-1.500
reference category
0.098
0.138
0.104
0.110
0.215
0.510
< 0.001
0.002
0.325
< 0.001
-1.552
-1.424
0.236
0.110
< 0.001
< 0.001
Number of matched pairs of offenders and re-offending rates (%)

PSM analysis all offenders 2008 only
37,983
57.7%
52.1%
5.6
Additional
randomly
generated factor
37,960
57.5%
53.1%
4.4
27,663
52.4%
43.8%
8.6
27,500
50.8%
44.8%
6.0
915
43.0%
41.6%
1.3
9,285
39.4%
50.0%
-10.6
9,276
39.7%
47.1%
-7.4
32
*
*
*
.
.
.
.
.
.
Full dataset PSM

analysis
matched offenders
High/low
probability courts
1,431
46.8%
43.7%
3.1
g custody rates (%)
er of matched pairs
offending
offending
offending
an 4 years, 2005 to 2008
offending
Table 1: Proven re-offending rates of matched pairs of offenders for sentences other than custodial in En
England and Wales
Males
2005
2006
Matched pairs
Fines
Conditional discharges
18,587
37.9%
36.0%
1.9
17,059
39.2%
35.6%
3.6
Matched pairs
Community orders
6,638
37.2%
33.8%
3.5
10,915
37.6%
32.4%
5.2
Matched pairs
Community orders
Fines
9,395
30.2%
29.0%
1.3
15,115
31.0%
29.9%
1.1
Matched pairs
Community orders
568
25.9%
27.8%
-1.9
4,418
28.5%
30.7%
-2.2

*
Table 2: Frequency of proven re-offending rates of matched pairs of offenders for sentences other than c
England and Wales
Males
2005
2006
Matched pairs
Fines
18,587
131.6
118.0
13.6
17,059
133.0
113.4
19.7
Matched pairs
Community orders
6,638
123.6
111.2
12.4
10,915
119.3
102.7
16.6
Matched pairs
Community orders
Fines
9,395
98.9
97.1
1.8
15,115
93.8
95.8
-2.0
568
4,418
Matched pairs

Community orders
80.3
71.3
9.0
81.0
89.9
-8.9
Table 3: Proven re-offending custody rates of matched pairs of offenders for sentences other than custod
England and Wales
Males
2005
2006
Matched pairs
Fines
18,587
11.5%
10.5%
1.0
17,059
12.2%
10.6%
1.6
Matched pairs
Community orders
6,638
14.4%
10.7%
3.7
10,915
14.2%
10.6%
3.6
Matched pairs
Community orders
Fines
9,395
11.1%
8.9%
2.2
15,115
10.7%
9.1%
1.7
Matched pairs
Community orders
568
16.0%
7.9%
8.1
4,418
16.0%
11.3%
4.7
*
Table C1: Number of offenders in original datasets and number of matched pairs, 2005 1 to 2008
England and Wales
2005
Males
Females
All offenders2
108,067
15,920
124,387
2006
Offenders receiving fines
104,553
15,283
120,222
Males
Females
All offenders2
19,664
3,384
23,067

44,304
7,756
52,118
Males
Females
All offenders2
Males
Females
All offenders2
19,664
3,384
23,067

44,304
7,756
52,118
Offenders receiving suspended sentence orders

1,525
10,175
260
1,584
1,786
11,767
Table C2: Re-offending comparisons of matched pairs of offenders who have received a fine or condition
England and Wales
Number of matched
pairs of offenders
Fines
All offenders1
Males
Females
80,431
70,583
9,762
38.7%
39.8%
30.9%
Age
18 - 20
21 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 49
50 and over
20,352
17,556
13,290
9,617
8,475
8,795
2,346
44.1%
37.9%
39.3%
39.9%
36.4%
32.4%
21.1%

Shoplifting
Criminal damage, 5,000 or less
Causing harassment, alarm or distress
Common assault
Drunk and disorderly
Cannabis possession
15,813
11,406
10,129
10,077
6,310
4,384
60.3%
38.4%
41.5%
18.1%
50.7%
38.8%

0
1-2
3-6
7 - 10
11 - 14
15 or more
12,152
16,656
17,905
8,785
5,467
19,466
10.9%
26.4%
35.8%
43.7%
50.0%
63.7%
1 Includes offenders with no recorded gender.
Table C3: Re-offending comparisons of matched pairs of offenders who have received a community orde
England and Wales
Number of matched
pairs of offenders
Community orders
All offenders2
Males
Females
48,192
40,647
7,524
37.6%
38.9%
31.0%
Age
18 - 20
21 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 49
50 and over
11,634
9,591
8,189
6,070
5,499
5,778
1,431
43.7%
38.9%
41.9%
40.1%
34.1%
23.8%
14.0%

Common assault
Shoplifting
Fear or provocation of violence
Other theft
Actual bodily harm
15,091
11,044
4,067
3,086
1,838
1,255
21.6%
66.8%
46.9%
27.1%
41.5%
12.5%

0
1-2
3-6
7 - 10
11 - 14
15 or more
7,736
9,198
10,321
5,423
3,362
12,152
9.5%
21.6%
33.5%
44.0%
49.4%
65.1%
1
2
Table C4: Re-offending comparisons of matched pairs of offenders who have received a community orde
England and Wales
Number of matched
pairs of offenders
All offenders2
Males
65,930
57,554
Community orders
30.8%
32.1%
Females
8,353
22.5%
Age
18 - 20
21 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 49
50 and over
12,353
12,476
11,185
8,420
7,754
9,858
3,884
43.3%
35.6%
33.9%
31.4%
26.6%
17.6%
8.3%

Drink driving
Common assault
Shoplifting
Fear or provocation of violence.
Other theft
19,961
10,868
10,229
4,020
3,811
1,721
10.9%
22.9%
67.5%
29.9%
46.9%
41.6%

0
1-2
3-6
7 - 10
11 - 14
15 or more
14,512
13,615
13,774
7,107
4,193
12,729
7.8%
17.3%
29.6%
39.8%
47.2%
62.5%
1
2
Table C5: Re-offending comparisons of matched pairs of offenders who have received a suspended sent
England and Wales
Number of matched
pairs of offenders
All offenders2
Males
Females
Age
18 - 20
21 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 49
50 and over
Suspended
sentence orders
19,140
17,342
1,794
28.5%
29.4%
19.4%
4,528
4,283
3,245
2,148
1,961
2,363
612
34.9%
29.6%
32.6%
29.8%
23.9%
16.5%
7.4%

Assault
Actual bodily harm
Drink driving
Affray
Shoplifting
Burglary3
4,159
3,951
2,101
1,608
1,534
1,184
28.3%
19.5%
9.2%
21.8%
74.1%
47.8%

0
1-2
3-6
7 - 10
11 - 14
15 or more
3,448
3,820
4,074
2,307
1,400
4,091
7.0%
14.5%
23.2%
33.2%
42.5%
57.4%
1
2
3
Table D1: Logistic regression model output showing the statistically significant offender and offence char
Conditional discharges (1) compared with fines (0)
Offender characteristics
Male
Age
Age (Squared)
Age of First Offence
Age of First Offence (Squared)
Number of previous offences
Number of previous offences (Squared)
Number of previous convictions
Number of previous convictions (Squared)
Number of previous custodial sentences
Number of previous custodial sentences (squared)
Copas rate
Offence Category
Violence
Robbery
Public order or riot
Sexual
Sexual (child)
Domestic burglary
Other burglary
Theft
Handling
Fraud and forgery
Absconding or bail offences
Taking and driving away and related offences
Theft from vehicles
Coefficient
-0.647
0.057
0.020
.
.
0.165
-0.008
0.040
-0.003
-0.046
.
-0.190
0.083
-0.677
-0.328
0.938
0.765
0.376
0.190
0.111
-0.141
-1.768
-0.665
0.355
SE
0.015
0.008
0.005
.
.
0.022
0.003
0.025
0.002
0.010
.
0.013
reference category
0.637
0.018
0.085
0.350
0.159
0.069
0.019
0.056
0.034
0.034
0.073
0.073
Other motoring offences

Drink driving offences
Criminal or malicious damage
Drugs import/export/ production/supply
Drugs possession/small scale supply
Other
Ethnicity
Unknown
White North European
White Sourth European
Black
Asian
Chinese, Japanese or SE Asian
Middle Eastern
Constant
-2.827
-4.965
0.371
-0.780
-0.865
-0.794
0.247
0.137
0.124
0.043
0.252
0.236
0.351
0.035
0.050
0.022
0.077
0.021
0.026
reference category
0.033
0.053
0.038
0.042
0.096
0.077
0.037
ntences other than custodial in England and Wales by gender, 2005 1 to 2008
Males
Females
2007
2008
2005
2006
2007
17,187
40.6%
36.3%
4.4
17,750
41.6%
37.8%
3.7
2,592
30.4%
28.0%
2.3
2,271
30.7%
24.7%
6.0
2,392
30.0%
26.2%
3.8
11,629
38.9%
33.9%
5.0
11,465
41.0%
35.4%
5.7
1,044
35.5%
30.7%
4.9
1,918
28.8%
25.5%
3.3
2,265
28.6%
23.8%
4.8
16,084
32.1%
31.1%
1.0
16,960
34.0%
32.2%
1.8
1,309
25.8%
22.8%
3.0
2,120
20.3%
19.6%
0.8
2,371
21.9%
20.5%
1.4
5,949
29.3%
31.2%
-1.9
6,407
30.5%
33.3%
-2.7
54
*
*
*
429
21.9%
20.3%
1.6
632
18.2%
22.3%
-4.1
d came into force from April 2005.
fenders for sentences other than custodial in England and Wales by gender, 2005 1 to 2008
Males
Females
2007
2008
2005
2006
2007
17,187
139.6
115.8
23.8
17,750
146.3
121.8
24.5
2,592
102.0
91.1
10.9
2,271
97.3
75.3
22.0
2,392
102.4
77.4
25.0
11,629
123.8
110.7
13.1
11,465
139.0
112.6
26.5
1,044
113.0
99.1
13.9
1,918
83.2
79.5
3.8
2,265
97.7
70.9
26.8
16,084
99.7
103.8
-4.0
16,960
109.0
106.2
2.8
1,309
76.3
79.6
-3.3
2,120
57.6
63.1
-5.4
2,371
68.3
65.9
2.4
5,949
6,407
54
429
632
80.1
90.0
-9.9
83.9
95.7
-11.8
61.1
55.6
5.6
59.4
56.9
2.6
59.3
78.6
-19.3
ers for sentences other than custodial in England and Wales by gender, 2005 1 to 2008
Males
Females
2007
2008
2005
2006
2007
17,187
12.7%
10.7%
2.0
17,750
13.2%
11.4%
1.8
2,592
6.6%
5.2%
1.4
2,271
6.4%
4.4%
1.9
2,392
5.7%
4.7%
1.0
11,629
14.9%
11.2%
3.7
11,465
15.6%
11.4%
4.3
1,044
9.6%
6.4%
3.2
1,918
7.6%
5.9%
1.7
2,265
7.9%
4.7%
3.3
16,084
11.2%
9.8%
1.5
16,960
12.2%
10.2%
2.0
1,309
5.9%
5.2%
0.7
2,120
4.8%
4.7%
0.1
2,371
5.3%
4.0%
1.3
5,949
16.3%
11.1%
5.2
6,407
17.4%
11.5%
5.9
54
*
*
*
429
11.0%
6.5%
4.4
632
10.8%
5.9%
4.9
ched pairs, 2005 1 to 2008
2007
104,695
16,171
121,238
ers receiving community orders

48,447
8,705
57,220
2008
2005
105,898
16,471
122,822
2006
2007
Offenders receiving conditional discharges
41,905
40,031
41,218
11,711
10,913
11,377
53,848
51,151
52,790
52,020
9,588
61,669
Offenders receiving conditional discharges

41,905
40,031
41,218
11,711
10,913
11,377
53,848
51,151
52,790
ers receiving community orders

48,447
8,705
57,220
ceiving suspended sentence orders

14,392
2,283
16,695
52,020
9,588
61,669
108,067
15,920
124,387

104,553
104,695
15,283
16,171
120,222
121,238
15,664
2,541
18,222
19,664
3,384
23,067

44,304
48,447
7,756
8,705
52,118
57,220
o have received a fine or conditional discharge, 2005 to 2008

Conditional
discharges
Difference
(percentage points)
Conditional
discharges
Fines
Difference
35.2%
36.4%
26.7%
3.5
3.4
4.2
133.0
137.6
101.0
112.8
117.3
81.4
20.2
20.3
19.5
40.4%
35.2%
35.7%
37.5%
32.0%
27.8%
17.6%
3.7
2.7
3.6
2.4
4.4
4.6
3.5
136.4
117.6
144.3
151.4
132.0
131.1
89.9
121.1
108.9
120.3
127.4
105.0
96.0
60.4
15.3
8.7
24.1
24.0
27.0
35.2
29.5
54.1%
34.9%
36.7%
17.3%
47.4%
36.4%
6.2
3.5
4.8
0.9
3.2
2.5
266.5
104.1
143.4
36.9
201.5
102.3
212.5
93.3
112.8
34.9
180.2
94.7
53.9
10.8
30.6
2.1
21.3
7.6
9.7%
24.2%
32.8%
40.0%
44.2%
58.0%
1.1
2.1
3.0
3.8
5.8
5.7
23.1
62.3
95.8
130.7
163.8
288.7
20.1
56.5
85.6
115.1
139.2
235.5
2.9
5.8
10.2
15.6
24.6
53.2
o have received a community order or conditional discharge, 2005 to 2008

Conditional
discharges
Difference
(percentage points)
Community orders
Conditional
discharges
Difference
32.7%
33.9%
26.4%
4.9
5.0
4.7
122.8
126.9
101.5
104.7
109.2
81.1
18.1
17.7
20.4
38.4%
34.5%
36.8%
34.9%
28.1%
20.0%
11.2%
5.3
4.4
5.1
5.2
6.1
3.9
2.8
137.4
125.9
148.6
140.9
107.9
69.9
31.2
115.3
111.1
132.8
116.9
87.3
56.6
25.5
22.1
14.7
15.8
24.0
20.7
13.3
5.7
18.4%
58.6%
41.1%
23.6%
37.6%
12.7%
3.2
8.2
5.9
3.5
3.9
-0.2
46.3
280.8
140.9
62.0
125.0
24.5
39.2
238.8
119.4
56.2
115.8
23.2
7.1
42.1
21.6
5.8
9.2
1.4
6.9%
18.9%
29.8%
37.1%
42.2%
57.6%
2.7
2.7
3.7
6.9
7.2
7.6
17.9
46.4
87.0
128.5
156.0
266.3
12.9
38.8
77.1
105.3
127.9
229.9
5.0
7.6
10.0
23.2
28.1
36.4
o have received a community order or fine, 2005 to 2008

Difference
(percentage points)
Fines
29.6%
30.8%
1.3
1.3
Community orders
96.6
100.8
Fines
Difference
97.2
101.3
-0.5
-0.5
21.4%
1.1
68.2
68.9
-0.7
42.1%
33.9%
32.2%
30.8%
25.1%
16.9%
6.7%
1.2
1.6
1.7
0.6
1.5
0.8
1.6
134.2
108.8
112.7
105.0
81.7
50.5
20.2
130.1
107.1
113.0
113.4
82.0
55.1
16.6
4.1
1.7
-0.3
-8.4
-0.3
-4.5
3.7
11.0%
20.3%
65.5%
29.0%
45.6%
44.0%
-0.1
2.6
2.0
0.8
1.4
-2.4
23.1
49.2
282.5
68.2
139.8
124.4
24.6
42.9
298.1
66.8
131.7
133.6
-1.5
6.3
-15.5
1.4
8.1
-9.2
6.6%
16.9%
28.4%
38.1%
43.6%
61.2%
1.2
0.4
1.2
1.7
3.6
1.3
15.4
36.5
74.2
113.5
145.0
252.5
13.1
36.4
72.6
109.8
134.4
265.3
2.3
0.1
1.6
3.7
10.6
-12.8
o have received a suspended sentence order or community order, 2005 1 to 2008

Community orders
Difference
(percentage points)
Suspended
sentence orders
Community orders
Difference
30.7%
31.7%
21.3%
-2.3
-2.3
-2.0
79.9
81.7
61.9
89.6
91.5
71.7
-9.7
-9.7
-9.8
38.6%
33.4%
34.6%
31.1%
24.5%
16.5%
6.9%
-3.7
-3.8
-2.0
-1.3
-0.7
0.0
0.5
93.2
79.4
99.4
92.1
68.0
43.4
17.5
107.7
93.8
111.0
96.1
74.5
43.7
15.5
-14.4
-14.5
-11.6
-4.1
-6.5
-0.3
2.0
29.6%
21.5%
12.8%
22.9%
74.1%
51.2%
-1.3
-2.0
-3.5
-1.1
-0.1
-3.4
63.8
38.1
19.8
45.1
322.6
136.8
72.8
45.5
26.7
49.9
337.7
166.8
-9.0
-7.4
-6.9
-4.8
-15.2
-30.0
8.5%
16.9%
26.8%
36.5%
42.4%
59.0%
-1.5
-2.5
-3.6
-3.3
0.1
-1.6
11.5
26.3
49.4
80.0
111.0
207.2
14.2
31.6
60.1
96.4
120.1
222.3
-2.7
-5.4
-10.7
-16.5
-9.1
-15.1
nificant offender and offence characteristics that affect offenders receiving a sentencing outcome other than custody
(1) compared with fines (0)
Conditional discharges (1) compared with community

orders (0)
P-Value
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
.
.
< 0.001
0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
.
< 0.001
Coefficient
-0.389
0.095
0.057
.
.
0.094
-0.007
0.100
0.005
0.013
-0.004
-0.316
0.897
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.007
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.046
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
-2.439
1.599
-0.343
-2.245
-1.524
-0.503
0.840
0.226
0.220
0.413
-0.969
0.264
SE
0.014
0.008
0.005
.
.
0.026
0.004
0.029
0.003
0.014
0.002
0.014
reference category
0.453
0.019
0.075
0.181
0.095
0.049
0.017
0.045
0.030
0.036
0.063
0.057
P-Value
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
.
.
< 0.001
0.054
< 0.001
0.157
0.350
0.009
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
-0.889
-2.376
1.643
-0.571
1.116
0.990
< 0.001
0.010
0.001
0.304
0.008
0.002
< 0.001
-0.154
-0.024
-0.159
-0.314
0.148
0.026
-0.641
0.036
0.051
0.021
0.069
0.022
0.029
reference category
0.037
0.057
0.041
0.046
0.105
0.082
0.040
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.672
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.158
0.748
< 0.001
Number of matc
All offenders
2008
2005
2006
2007
2008
2,507
32.5%
27.7%
4.8
21,197
37.0%
35.0%
2.0
19,356
38.2%
34.3%
3.9
19,603
39.3%
35.0%
4.3
20,275
40.4%
36.5%
3.9
2,297
33.3%
27.7%
5.5
7,685
37.0%
33.3%
3.7
12,838
36.2%
31.3%
4.9
13,904
37.2%
32.3%
4.9
13,765
39.7%
34.1%
5.6
2,553
23.2%
23.0%
0.2
10,709
29.7%
28.2%
1.5
17,241
29.7%
28.6%
1.1
18,463
30.8%
29.7%
1.1
19,517
32.6%
31.0%
1.6
679
19.1%
21.4%
-2.2
622
25.1%
27.0%
-1.9
4,848
27.9%
29.8%
-1.9
6,583
28.2%
30.3%
-2.1
7,087
29.4%
32.1%
-2.7
Number of matched pairs of offenders and number of offences per 100 matched offenders
All offenders2
2008
2005
2006
2007
2008
2,507
21,197
19,356
19,603
20,275
101.8
127.9
128.7
134.8
140.7
80.9
114.6
108.8
110.9
116.7
20.9
13.3
19.9
23.9
24.0
2,297
115.2
84.4
30.8
7,685
122.2
109.5
12.6
12,838
113.9
99.2
14.7
13,904
119.4
104.1
15.3
13,765
135.0
107.8
27.2
2,553
72.8
71.1
1.7
10,709
96.1
94.9
1.2
17,241
89.4
91.8
-2.4
18,463
95.7
98.9
-3.2
19,517
104.2
101.6
2.7
679
622
4,848
6,583
7,087
66.0
75.8
-9.9
2008
2,507
6.6%
5.0%
1.6
78.6
69.9
8.7
79.1
86.9
-7.8
78.1
88.9
-10.8
82.2
93.8
-11.6
Number of matched pairs of offenders and re-offending custody rates (%)

All offenders2
2005
2006
2007
2008
21,197
19,356
19,603
20,275
10.9%
11.5%
11.9%
12.4%
9.9%
9.9%
10.0%
10.6%
1.0
1.6
1.9
1.8
2,297
9.2%
5.6%
3.6
7,685
13.7%
10.1%
3.6
12,838
13.2%
9.9%
3.3
13,904
13.7%
10.1%
3.6
13,765
14.6%
10.4%
4.2
2,553
5.4%
4.7%
0.7
10,709
10.4%
8.4%
2.0
17,241
10.0%
8.5%
1.5
18,463
10.5%
9.0%
1.5
19,517
11.3%
9.5%
1.8
679
9.6%
7.1%
2.5
622
15.8%
7.7%
8.0
4,848
15.6%
10.9%
4.7
6,583
15.8%
10.6%
5.2
7,087
16.6%
11.1%
5.5
2008
2005
al discharges
39,584
10,991
50,747
al discharges
39,584
10,991
50,747
Number of offenders and number of matched pairs

2006
2007
2008
Fines matched with conditional discharges
18,587
17,059
17,187
17,750
2,592
2,271
2,392
2,507
21,197
19,356
19,603
20,275
Community orders matched with conditional discharges

6,638
10,915
11,629
1,044
1,918
2,265
7,685
12,838
13,904
11,465
2,297
13,765
ines
Community orders matched with fines

15,115
16,084
2,120
2,371
17,241
18,463
16,960
2,553
19,517
Suspended sentence orders matched with community orders

568
4,418
5,949
54
429
632
622
4,848
6,583
6,407
679
7,087
105,898
16,471
122,822
nity orders
52,020
9,588
61,669
9,395
1,309
10,709

Conditional
discharges
Fines
Difference
(percentage points)
11.7%
12.4%
6.3%
10.1%
10.8%
4.8%
1.6
1.6
1.5
11.4%
10.6%
14.2%
14.2%
11.4%
9.5%
5.3%
11.0%
10.2%
11.1%
12.1%
8.9%
7.0%
3.2%
0.5
0.4
3.2
2.1
2.5
2.5
2.2
26.2%
9.5%
12.1%
2.5%
13.4%
9.1%
20.6%
9.0%
10.1%
2.4%
11.9%
8.7%
5.6
0.5
2.0
0.0
1.5
0.4
1.1%
3.5%
6.5%
10.4%
15.7%
29.5%
1.1%
3.1%
5.7%
9.3%
13.0%
25.2%
0.0
0.3
0.7
1.1
2.7
4.3

Community orders
Conditional
discharges
Difference
(percentage points)
13.8%
14.8%
8.5%
10.1%
11.0%
5.5%
3.7
3.9
2.9
15.2%
14.1%
17.6%
16.3%
12.3%
6.8%
3.3%
11.1%
10.9%
13.1%
12.0%
8.1%
4.6%
1.9%
4.1
3.2
4.5
4.3
4.2
2.2
1.4
4.8%
32.8%
16.7%
5.0%
13.9%
2.2%
3.0%
24.1%
12.3%
4.5%
11.6%
1.8%
1.7
8.7
4.4
0.5
2.2
0.5
1.1%
3.8%
8.3%
13.3%
18.1%
33.3%
0.8%
2.3%
5.4%
8.8%
12.4%
26.0%
0.3
1.5
2.9
4.5
5.8
7.3

Community orders
10.6%
11.3%
Difference
(percentage points)
Fines
8.9%
9.6%
1.7
1.8
5.3%
4.6%
0.8
14.9%
12.1%
13.0%
11.5%
9.1%
4.4%
1.4%
12.1%
9.7%
11.0%
11.3%
7.4%
4.1%
0.7%
2.8
2.4
2.1
0.2
1.7
0.3
0.7
1.7%
5.2%
32.8%
6.3%
17.2%
13.4%
1.1%
3.1%
30.6%
5.3%
13.2%
12.4%
0.6
2.1
2.2
1.0
4.0
1.0
0.8%
2.8%
7.0%
12.0%
17.0%
31.1%
0.5%
1.9%
4.8%
9.3%
13.9%
28.7%
0.3
0.9
2.2
2.6
3.1
2.4

Suspended
sentence orders
Community orders
Difference
(percentage points)
16.0%
16.6%
10.4%
10.8%
11.2%
6.5%
5.3
5.4
4.0
17.8%
15.8%
20.1%
18.9%
14.5%
9.0%
4.9%
12.9%
11.2%
14.2%
11.0%
9.2%
4.4%
1.8%
4.9
4.6
5.9
7.9
5.3
4.7
3.1
15.8%
7.6%
4.2%
7.6%
59.1%
28.6%
8.7%
4.3%
1.9%
4.5%
43.0%
24.5%
7.1
3.3
2.4
3.2
16.0
4.1
1.6%
4.9%
10.0%
17.6%
25.1%
40.6%
0.8%
2.5%
6.2%
11.2%
14.0%
30.0%
0.8
2.4
3.8
6.4
11.1
10.6
tcome other than custody, 2008

Community orders (1) compared with fines (0)
Coefficient
-0.222
0.137
-0.058
-0.071
-0.017
0.059
0.004
-0.319
.
-0.067
0.006
0.417
2.624
-2.345
-0.053
3.259
2.274
0.845
-0.724
-0.133
-0.337
-2.249
0.372
0.040
SE
0.013
0.008
0.005
0.011
0.005
0.017
0.002
0.017
.
0.011
0.001
0.011
reference category
0.454
0.018
0.066
0.305
0.132
0.055
0.017
0.047
0.030
0.026
0.047
0.062
P-Value
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.001
< 0.001
0.006
< 0.001
.
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.420
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.004
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.519
-1.775
-2.501
-1.342
-0.286
-2.069
-1.859
0.407
0.146
0.240
0.314
0.007
0.195
0.937
0.018
0.016
0.022
0.052
0.019
0.026
reference category
0.030
0.046
0.033
0.035
0.083
0.067
0.033
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.002
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.929
0.004
< 0.001
Number of matched pairs of offenders and re-offending rates (%)

PSM analysis all offenders 2008 only
Additional
Full dataset PSM
High/low
randomly
analysis
probability courts
generated factor
54,487
54,313
3,033
39.7%
38.8%
34.0%
36.1%
36.4%
32.0%
3.6
2.3
1.9
offenders
53,305
39.6%
36.7%
2.9
53,303
39.4%
37.0%
2.4
3,020
35.8%
30.8%
5.0
68,911
35.4%
36.3%
-0.9
68,907
35.5%
36.3%
-0.9
4,065
26.3%
23.7%
2.5
39,209
36.0%
39.2%
-3.2
39,215
36.0%
37.7%
-1.8
1,242
31.4%
32.9%
-1.4
y rates (%)
ched pairs
Suspended orders (1) compared with community

orders (0)
Coefficient
0.035
0.024
0.011
0.043
-0.011
0.233
-0.023
-0.098
.
0.084
-0.004
0.109
1.563
-0.168
-0.155
0.465
0.442
-0.406
-0.681
-0.354
0.219
-0.901
-0.525
-0.704
SE
0.018
0.011
0.006
0.014
0.005
0.026
0.004
0.021
.
0.017
0.002
0.014
reference category
0.092
0.026
0.067
0.070
0.038
0.038
0.020
0.046
0.030
0.049
0.045
0.063
P-Value
0.047
0.029
0.079
0.002
0.038
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
.
< 0.001
0.103
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.021
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
-0.064
-0.628
-1.165
0.504
-0.441
0.039
-0.044
0.029
0.076
0.140
0.085
0.067
-0.756
0.024
0.026
0.040
0.044
0.029
0.036
reference category
0.044
0.066
0.048
0.050
0.122
0.093
0.047
0.008
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.286
0.309
0.655
0.111
0.006
0.485
0.472
< 0.001
Table 1: Bands for OASys Violence Predictor (OVP) and OASys General re-offending Predictor (OGP) sc
Band
OVP 2-year
predicted
re-offending rate
OGP 2-year predicted

re-offending rate
0% 33%
34% 66%
67% 84%
85% - 99%
Low
Medium
High
Very High
0% 29%
30% 59%
60% 79%
80% 99%
Table 2: Offender groups based on criminal history and OGP and OVP scores
Group label
Percentage of
sample
Description
Sexual
offenders
Those with any previous

cautions/convictions for sexual
offending
Low risk
Those with low OGP and OVP scores
Non-violent
specialists1
Violent
specialists
Those with medium/high/very high

OGP and low OVP scores
Those with low OGP and medium
OVP scores
Those with medium/high/very high
OGP and medium OVP scores
Those with high/very high OVP
scores
Versatile
High-risk
versatile
6%
30%
20%
6%
30%
8%2
The term specialists is used here to refer to specialisation in the very broad offence classes covered by OGP and OVP. It is likely that some offenders will
Of which two-thirds had high/very high OGP scores.
Figure 1: Hazards of selected categories of re-offending

Months
1 to 3
4 to 6
7 to 9
10 to 12
13 to 15
16 to 18
19 to 21
22 to 24
25 to 27
28 to 30
31 to 33
34 to 36
37 to 39
40 to 42
43 to 45
Violent (OVP definition)
Sexual
6.7%
5.4%
4.5%
3.9%
3.7%
3.3%
3.1%
2.7%
2.6%
2.4%
2.1%
1.9%
1.9%
1.8%
1.6%
Burglary
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.5%
1.1%
0.9%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
Theft & handling

6.5%
3.9%
2.8%
2.2%
1.9%
1.6%
1.5%
1.3%
1.2%
1.0%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.6%
0.7%
46 to 48
1.5%
0.0%
0.2%
0.6%
Figure 2: Hazards for six offender groups: violent & sexual re-offending
Months
Sex offenders
(sexual/complian
ce)
Sex offenders (violent)
1 to 3
4 to 6
7 to 9
10 to 12
13 to 15
16 to 18
19 to 21
22 to 24
25 to 27
28 to 30
31 to 33
34 to 36
37 to 39
40 to 42
43 to 45
46 to 48
5.1%
3.8%
3.1%
2.7%
2.8%
2.0%
2.0%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.1%
0.8%
0.7%
0.9%
1.1%
0.7%
2.0%
1.2%
1.1%
0.9%
1.1%
0.9%
0.8%
0.6%
0.8%
0.8%
0.4%
0.7%
0.7%
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
Low risk
2.1%
2.0%
1.7%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.3%
1.1%
1.0%
1.1%
1.0%
0.9%
1.0%
Nonviolent
specialists
4.2%
4.1%
3.2%
3.0%
2.9%
3.0%
2.8%
2.6%
2.6%
2.2%
2.3%
2.1%
2.4%
1.9%
1.7%
1.7%
Figure 3: Hazards for six offender groups: non-violent re-offending
Months
1 to 3
4 to 6
7 to 9
10 to 12
13 to 15
16 to 18
19 to 21
22 to 24
25 to 27
28 to 30
31 to 33
34 to 36
37 to 39
40 to 42
43 to 45
46 to 48
Sex offenders
Low risk
8.1%
4.7%
3.9%
3.1%
3.0%
2.4%
2.0%
1.8%
1.4%
1.6%
1.2%
1.0%
0.7%
1.1%
0.5%
0.8%
2.8%
2.5%
2.2%
1.9%
1.8%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.0%
1.1%
Nonviolent
specialists
19.3%
13.3%
10.3%
9.3%
7.7%
6.8%
6.3%
5.4%
5.1%
4.4%
4.5%
4.3%
3.7%
3.5%
3.5%
2.6%
Violent
specialists
3.2%
3.1%
2.9%
2.6%
2.6%
2.2%
2.2%
1.7%
1.9%
2.1%
1.4%
1.3%
1.5%
1.5%
2.2%
0.8%
ng Predictor (OGP) scores based on their two-year predicted re-offending probabilities
s likely that some offenders will specialise further within those classes, tending to commit particular crimes such as acquisitive offences, drink driving or criminal damage offe
Drugs
1.8%
1.6%
1.5%
1.3%
1.3%
1.2%
1.2%
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
Violent
specialists
6.5%
5.5%
4.6%
4.4%
4.1%
3.5%
3.5%
3.3%
3.2%
2.6%
2.2%
3.3%
2.3%
3.0%
2.8%
1.8%
Versatile
18.1%
12.7%
10.2%
8.3%
7.4%
6.8%
6.4%
5.9%
5.3%
4.6%
4.1%
4.1%
3.7%
3.3%
2.7%
3.2%
Versatile
10.0%
8.4%
7.7%
6.6%
6.4%
5.9%
5.8%
5.0%
5.0%
4.5%
3.9%
3.5%
3.9%
3.8%
3.0%
3.0%
High-risk
versatile
22.9%
14.7%
12.1%
10.0%
8.9%
8.1%
7.3%
5.9%
6.4%
5.8%
5.5%
3.7%
3.2%
3.2%
4.2%
4.3%
High-risk
versatile
20.3%
15.4%
13.2%
11.6%
10.8%
9.5%
9.4%
8.5%
8.7%
7.5%
7.4%
7.5%
3.9%
4.5%
3.8%
4.1%
nk driving or criminal damage offences.

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entences, including immediate custodial sentences

Difference in re-offences per 100 matched offenders

Includes offenders with no recorded gender.

Includes offenders with no recorded gender.

Offenders receiving immediate custody (less than 12 m

Immediate custody (1 year or more but less than 2 ye

Immediate custody (2 years or more but less than 4 y

Includes offenders with no recorded gender.

Most common offences

Number of previous convictions or cautions

Most common offences

Number of previous convictions or cautions

Most common offences

Number of previous convictions or cautions

Includes offenders with no recorded gender.

Refers to burglary both in a dwelling and not in a dwelling.

Most common offences

Number of previous convictions or cautions

Includes offenders with no recorded gender.

Refers to burglary both in a dwelling and not in a dwelling.

nd came into force from April 2005.

nd came into force from April 2005.

nd came into force from April 2005.

tched pairs, 2005 1 to 2008

receiving immediate custody (less than 12 months)

te custody (1 year or more but less than 2 years)

Offenders receiving suspended sentence orders

Offenders receiving immediate custody (less than 12 months)

e custody (2 years or more but less than 4 years)

Immediate custody (1 year or more but less than 2 years)

nd came into force from April 2005.

nd came into force from April 2005.

nd came into force from April 2005.

Immediate custody Immediate custody

ustody <12M (1) compared with

Suspended orders (1) compared with immediate

Number of matched pairs of offenders a

les by gender, 2005 1 to 2008

y gender, 2005 1 to 2008

Number of matched pairs of offenders and re-offending custody rates (%)

Number of offenders and number of matched pairs

Immediate custody (less than 12 months) matched with suspended

tody (less than 12 months)

Immediate custody (1 year or more but less than 2 years) matched

ded sentence orders

re but less than 2 years)

Immediate custody (2 years or more but less than 4 years) matched

Number of matched pairs of offenders and different measures of re-offending

ntence order, 2005 1 to 2008

encing outcome, 2008

Number of matched pairs of offenders and re-offending rates (%)

Full dataset PSM

g custody rates (%)

an 4 years, 2005 to 2008

Includes offenders with no recorded gender.

Suspended sentence orders

Includes offenders with no recorded gender.

Includes offenders with no recorded gender.

Offenders receiving community orders

Offenders receiving community orders

Offenders receiving suspended sentence orders

Includes offenders with no recorded gender.

Most common offences