NATO OTAN

Unclassified Metrics
April 2009
Strategic Advisory Group HQ ISAF

Prepared on 9 May 09

UNCLASSIFIED

1

Security Summary
(Statistics Compare January - April 2009 v. January - April 2008)

NATO OTAN

• 64% increase in Insurgent Initiated Attacks1 • 80% of attacks occurred in 13% of the districts (Jan-Apr 09)1 • IED events up 80% (IEDs caused 60% of casualties Jan-Apr 09)1

• 28% increase in CF force strength5 • 38% increase in ANA force strength4 • 59% increase in CF offensive events1

January to April 2009 Kinetic Activity Density Plot By District
More Activity

Less Activity

NWFP

Afghan Perceptions (Mar 09)2
FATA • 35% of Afghans say security is better now than it was 6 months ago (last quarter survey results: 28%) • 13% say security is worse than it was 6 months ago (last quarter survey results: 17%) Baluchistan
ANSF4 • ANA: - 50 of 79 Kandak battalions capable of independent ops - Average of 83 total deliberate ops per week in ’09 (37 in ‘08) • ANP: - Focused District Development: 52 districts completed training - 14 of 20 Civil Order Police Battalions fielded

Footnotes on Sources: 1JOIIS, 4 May. 2ANQAR Survey, 31 Mar. 3CJOC CivCas cell, 2 May. 4CSTC-A, 4 May. 5CJ1, 3 May.

• Civilian Deaths: down 44%3 • ISAF/OEF Deaths: up 55%1 • ANSF Deaths: up 25%1
(Since Jan 07, ANPs suffered 1.8x more deaths than ANA+ISAF)

• ABP: - Focused Border Development: 2 cycles complete (20 companies) • Attacks on GIRoA officials & district centers: up 90%1 - 3rd and 4th Cycles underway (14 companies programmed) • Kidnappings/Assassinations: down 17%1 Prepared on 5 May 09 2 NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

Average Daily Insurgent Initiated Attacks
By Province, January 1, 2009 – April 30, 2009
12.0
-0.8 10.6

NATO OTAN

• The Number inside the bar indicates average daily insurgent initiated attacks (i.e. Helmand averaged 10.6 attacks per day from Jan 09 – Apr 09) • The Number on top of the bar indicates the change relative to last month (i.e. average daily insurgent initiated attacks decreased by 0.8 per day in Helmand relative to last month)

10.0

8.0

6.0
+0.2 3.9 2.0 +0.3 1.4 4.5

4.0

2.0

1.2

0.9

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.4

0.3

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.7

0.5

0.5

0.1

0.1

0.5

0.1

Day Kundi

Badakhshan

Source: JOIIS, 4 May 09

UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

Samangan
3

Nuristan

Laghman

Bamyan

Nangarhar

Helmand

Kandahar

Panjsher

Ghor

Badghis

Uruzgan

Baghlan

Jawzjan

Sari Pul

Kabul

Herat

Kunduz

Lowgar

Nimroz

Kapisa

Balkh

Ghazni

Faryab

Paktya

Khost

Kunar

Farah

Zabul

Paktika

Takhar

Wardak

Parwan

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

-0.1 +0.1 +0.3 -0.1 +0.2 +0.2

+0.1 +0.1

+0.1

+0.1

-0.1

+0.1

Insurgent Attacks
• Insurgent initiated attacks were up 64% overall (Jan/Apr 09 v. Jan/Apr 08):
• Direct Fire attacks were up 57% • Indirect Fire attacks were up 44% • IEDs were up 81% • Surface to Air Fire was up 103% • Coalition Force offensive actions were up 59%
INS Attacks Winter 1,600
1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0
New PAK GOV negotiates w / FATA tribes

NATO OTAN

• Kinetic events increased substantially this year relative to the same period last year
• Deliberate increase in operational tempo by ANSF and ISAF • Milder winter • Continued freedom of action for insurgents from sanctuaries across the border Indirect Fire
Winter

Direct Fire

IEDs
Ramadan

Surface to Air Fire
Ramadan Winter

TB senior leader direction for asymmetric attacks

Source: JOIIS, 4 May 09

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Poppy Poppy Poppy 07 07 08 08 09 Harvest Harvest Harvest

UNCLASSIFIED

4

IED Events (Found and Detonated)

NATO OTAN

• Comparing Jan-Apr ’09 to the same period during 2008, IED discoveries (finds plus turn-ins) were up 75% • Since January 2007, discoveries have accounted for 55% of all IED events

600

ISAF Finds
500

ANSF Finds

LN Turn-Ins

Detonations

400

300

200

100

0 Jan 07 Mar May Jul 07 Sep Nov Jan 08 Mar May Jul 08 Sep Nov Jan 09 Mar

Source: JOIIS, 4 May 09

NATO / ISAF UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASS // REL USA ISAF NATO UNCLASSIFIED

5

IED Related Casualties
• Comparing Jan-Apr ‘09 to the same time period in 2008, total casualties from IEDs were down 9% despite an 81% increase in IED events • IEDs remain the leading cause of total casualties: 60% of casualties Jan-Apr ‘09
ISAF
700

NATO OTAN

ANA

ANP

Civilians

600

500

400

300

200

100

0 Jan 07 Mar May Jul 07 Sep Nov Jan 08 Mar May Jul 08 Sep Nov Jan 09 Mar

Source: JOIIS, 4 May 09

UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

6

Pro-GIRoA Events
Cache, IED turn-ins and anti-INS activity

NATO OTAN

• 2009 Pro-GIRoA Events (through April): 127 • Comparing Jan-Apr ‘09 to the same time period in 2008, Pro-GIRoA Events were down 3%
RC-E
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 07 07 08 08 09

RC-S

RC-W

RC-N

RC-C

Source: JOIIS, 4 May 09

UNCLASSIFIED

7

Conflict-Related Civilian Deaths
• Comparing Jan-Apr ’09 to the same time period in 2008, civilian deaths were down 44% • Since Jan 07, insurgents have caused 80% of civilian deaths
200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

NATO OTAN

ISAF/OEF Responsible

Insurgent Responsible

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 07 07 08 08 09
Year 2009 Civililan Deaths (ISAF/OEF Responsible) 30 CivCas Events (Caused by ISAF/OEF) 25 20 15 10 5 0
Troops in Contact Close Air Support Troops in Contact Indirect Fire Troops in Contact Direct Fire Road Traffic Accident Rules of Engagement / Escalation of Force

Civilians Killed (Caused by ISAF/OEF)

ISAF Responsible Jan 07 - Apr 09 Jan 07 - Dec 07 Jan 08 - Dec 08 Jul 08 - Apr 09 Sep 08 - Apr 09 Jan 09 - Apr 09

20% 19% 20% 28% 23% 23%

Civilian Casualty Tracking Cell Formed in CJOC
Standardized process to investigate incidents of reported civilian casualties

• Among the CivCas events for which responsibility has been attributed to ISAF/OEF Forces, ROE / EOF events account for the greatest proportion of CivCas events but CAS events have caused the greatest proportion of Civilian Deaths. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED
8

Source: ISAF CJOC, CIVCAS Cell, As of 2 May 09

Military Deaths*
• Comparing Jan-Apr ‘09 to the same time period in 2008: • Total military deaths were up 29% • ANSF deaths were up 24% • ISAF deaths were up 55%
ISAF
250

NATO OTAN

ANA

ANP

200

150

100

50

0 Jan 07 Mar May Jul 07 Sep Nov Jan 08 Mar May Jul 08 Sep Nov Jan 09 Mar

*Attributed to insurgent initiated attacks (direct fire, indirect fire, IEDs, and surface-to-air fire)
Source: JOIIS, 4 May 09

UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

9

ANA Size and Capability
• ANA Increasingly Conducting and Leading Operations (53% in last 120 days) • 109 of 160 units fielded; 87,300 assigned (will grow to 134,000 by Dec 2011) • ANA Air Corps have over tripled monthly troop and cargo capacity since Feb 08 • Air Corps flying 90% of all Afghan missions
CM1
100%

NATO OTAN

CM2

CM3

CM4

80%
Jan 07: 30% CM1/2 Jan 08: 49% CM1/2

Jan 09: 61% CM1/2

Apr 09: 63% CM1/2

60%

40%

20%

0% Jan 07 Mar May Jul 07 Sep Nov Jan 08 Mar May Jul 08
CM1 Level CM 1 CM 2 CM 3 CM 4

Sep

Nov

Jan 09

Mar

ANA Growth KANDAK CM / Location Confidence in ANA
Source: CSTC-A, as of 4 May 09.

1CM 2IF

= Capability Milestone Rating = International Forces

UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO UNCLASSIFIED

Description BN Level Ops, IF2 Enables BN Level Ops with IF Spt Co Level Ops with IF Spt Unit Formed, No Capability 10

ANSF Deliberate Operations
• ANSF is demonstrating increased capacity and capability to lead Deliberate Operations. • Increases in ANSF capability and end-strength should lead to further increases in ANSF led Deliberate Operations. • A sharp increase in the number of coalition led operations beginning in the summer of 2008 led to a reduction in the percentage of operations the ANSF led. • In spite of ANSF increased capacity and capabilities, any increase in Coalition Forces and their operations will result in the continued percentage decline of ANSF led operations.
80

NATO OTAN

Summary of 2009 Deliberate Operations • ANSF has led an average of 44 Deliberate Operations per week. • Average of 83 total deliberate operations conducted per week. • On average, the ANSF has led 53% of Deliberate Operations conducted during a given week in 2009. Summary of 2008 Deliberate Operations • ANSF led an average of 22 Deliberate Operations per week. • Average of 37 total Deliberate Operations conducted per week. • On average, the ANSF led 61% of Deliberate Operations conducted during a given week in 2008.

ANSF Led Operations Coalition Led Operations
66

75

# Operations per Week

60
48

56 51 43 35 27 23 22 21 28 32 30 29 27 28 36 47 44 41 36 38 38 34 31 31 45 45 44 39 41 39 49 44 45 37 45 36 44 37 42 39 47 42 34 32

41

40
31 26 28 24 19 12 7 19 11 18 12 19 18 19 13 17 23 24 22 22 20 19 21 28 27 22 23 32 34 30 28 27

20

3-Aug-08

10-Aug-08

17-Aug-08

24-Aug-08

31-Aug-08

5-Oct-08

2-Nov-08

9-Nov-08

12-Oct-08

19-Oct-08

26-Oct-08

16-Nov-08

23-Nov-08

30-Nov-08

4-Jan-09

5-Apr-09

12-Apr-09

19-Apr-09

11-Jan-09

18-Jan-09

14-Sep-08

21-Sep-08

28-Sep-08

14-Dec-08

21-Dec-08

28-Dec-08

25-Jan-09

15-Feb-09

22-Feb-09

15-Mar-09

22-Mar-09

29-Mar-09

26-Apr-09

7-Sep-08

7-Dec-08

1-Feb-09

8-Feb-09

1-Mar-09

8-Mar-09

Week Ending

Source: CSTC-A, as of 3 May 09

UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO UNCLASSIFIED

3-May-09

0

11

Afghanistan Public Protection Program (AP3) Update
AP3 Overview
• District community councils select local protection forces • Special Forces “train the trainers” • ANSF train the Afghanistan Public Protection Force (APPF); Ministry of Interior provides oversight • Amplified by Wardak Governor’s information and media campaign • Deployment of AP3 assets is coordinated between the ANP and the District community council Key Takeaway: AP3 is a pilot community engagement program that relies on civil participation to enhance local security, deny insurgent support, and extend government legitimacy to the district level APPF – Jalreyz District 243 pax / 47 villages • 46% Tajik • 38% Pashtun • 16% Hazara

NATO OTAN

Wardak Province, Jalreyz District AP3 Pilot Program Ph 0: Prepare
Community Selects APPF

Ph 1: Shape

Ph 2: Clear

Ph 3: Hold
APPF Deployment

Ph 4: Build
Development Projects

ANA District Security Ops APPF Training

Dec 08

Jan 09

Feb 09

Mar 09

Apr 09

May 09

Wardak

1 2 3 4 5

• Class 2: - Phase 1 training began 25 Apr - 81 students from Jalreyz and Maydan Shahr)
1: Jalreyz 2: Maydan Shair 3: Nerkh 4: Chak-e Vardak 5: Sayed Abad

• Continuing to conduct shaping operations in Nerkh and clear/hold operations in Jalreyz • Forming plans for Chak-e Vardak - Conditions-based progression UNCLASSIFIED
12

Initial Districts

Counter-Narcotic Efforts
Interdictions
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Operations Labs Destroyed
0 Centrally Directed Eradications Governor Led Eradications 6,000

NATO OTAN

Eradications
2008 Total 2008 Year-to-Date 2009 Year-to-Date
4,000 3,000 2,000 1,174 1,000 3,884 2008 Year-to-Date 5,000 2009 Year-to-Date 5,058

68

68

18%
4,474

235%
2,644

59%
1,830

35 28 19

35

Total Eradications

Seizures and Destructions
35,000 2008 Year-to-Date 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 6,067 5,000 40 0 Opium Morphine Hashish Poppy Seed Cannabis Seed Chemical Precursors (kg) Chemical Precursors (litres) 3,906 3,846 506 909 1,490 0 6,411 2,717 2,317 19,320 2009 Year-to-Date 32,065

Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Periodic Report on Poppy Eradication Survey, 25 April 2009.

Denied the Insurgency: $US 1.7M
(Farm-Gate Value, excludes chemicals)

17,935

Source: ISAF CNOC, as of 2 May 09.

UNCLASSIFIED

13

NATO OTAN

Quarterly Metric Slides Back ups (as of 31 March 2009)

UNCLASSIFIED

14

Public Perception of Security (Mar 09)

NATO OTAN

Results from the last two surveys indicate a potential reversal in the downward trend of security perceptions. As of March, 85% say the security situation in their local area is good or fair.

How is the security situation in your local area?
Good 2% 6% 92% 1% 17% 82% 3% 15% 82% 27% 48% 43% 41% 45% 39% 35% 44% 39% 43% 47% 43% 42% 9% Fair 13% Bad 12% 15% 18% 18% 15%

64%

Sep 05

Dec 05

May 06

Sep 06

Jul 07

Apr 08

Jul Sep 08 08

Dec 08

Mar 09
15

Surveys conducted from Sep 05 to Mar 09
Source: ANQAR Survey; last version completed Mar 09.

UNCLASSIFIED

Public Perception of Changes in Security
Perception of an improving security climate has increased two quarters in a row; 86% of Afghans believe security is the same or better in their mantaqa.
Is security in your mantaqa better, the same or worse than it was 6 months ago? Kabul
100% 10% 80% 51% 60% 56% 60% 9% 8%

NATO OTAN

Nationwide
100% 19% 80% 17% 13%

60% 56% 54%

51%

40%

40%

20% 31% 29%

40%

20% 24% 0% 28%

35%

0% Kabul Sep 08 Kabul Dec 08 Kabul Mar 09

Nationwide Sep 08

Nationwide Dec 08

Nationwide Mar 09

Worse

The Same

Better

No Answer / Refused
16

Source: ANQAR Survey; last version completed Mar 09.

UNCLASSIFIED

Freedom of Movement
Public Perception: “How safe do you feel driving outside your Mantaqa during the day?”

NATO OTAN

Attacks within 500m of ISAF Routes
• Comparing Jan-Apr ‘09 to the same time period in 2008, attacks within 500 meters of ISAF routes were up 36%

Overall, nearly 7 in 10 Afghans feel at least a little safe using the roads in their districts.

• Results of increased security measures (implemented Sep 08):
– – Fewer attacks on bridges Less effective attacks

35% 31% 30%
400

32%

Dec 08

Mar 09

26% 25%

25%
350 300

20% 20% 15% 15% 12%

19%

250 200 150

10% 10% 8%

100 50

5% 1% 1% 0% Completely Safe Mostly Safe A Little Safe A Little Unsafe Very Unsafe Don't Know

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 07 07 08 08 09

Source: JOIIS, 4 May 09

Source: ANQAR Survey, Mar 09

UNCLASSIFIED

17

Public Perception of Road Infrastructure
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the provision of roads?
35% 32%

NATO OTAN

Roads Impact Assessment Report
• 943 kms of Regional, National and Provincial Roads assessed • Traffic volumes up 58%

Dec 08
30% 27% 25% 28%

Mar 09

24%

• Travel times decreased 74%
20% 15% 15% 12% 10% 10% 16% 18% 18%

• No. of businesses increased 56%; Gross sales increased 400% • Household Income up 39% • Irrigated land increased 47%

5%

• School attendance up 8%
0% Very Dissatisfied Somewhat Dissatisfied Neither Somewhat Satisfied Very Satisfied

• Health Clinic visits up 7%

Source: ANQAR Survey, Mar 09

Source: USAID, Roads Socio-Economic Impact Assessment, May 6 – August 8, 2008; compares information collected from Summer 2008 against baseline data collected in 2003.

UNCLASSIFIED

18

National Solidarity Program
• Provides one-time block grants of $5,000 to $60,000 to local communities • Reaches 68% of Afghanistan's 31,000+ communities • Forms democratically elected Community Development Council (CDC) • CDC conducts a reconstruction and development assessment for its village and identifies projects and activities (46k projects approved; 25k completed)

NATO NATO OTAN OTAN

Kinetic Event Density

NSP Coverage, By District (Mar 09)

January to March 2009 Kinetic Activity Density Plot By District
More Activity

Little to No Activity

Source: JOIIS; 6 Apr 09.

• Adapts to Afghan local cultural and political environments Number of CDCs Elected as Change Colours
a Percent of CDCs Required 80 – 100% 60 – 80% CDC Not Required 40 – 60% 20 – 40% 0%
Source: ISAF; MRRD; as of 30 Mar 09.

• Provides broad coverage and good performance with low-leakage rates • Engenders local buy-in (requires 10% community contribution); highly popular program • Serves as a front-line mechanism for the Hold and Build phases of the overall COIN strategy

UNCLASSIFIED

19

Education
Number of Students in School
7,000,000

NATO OTAN

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION ACCOMPLISHMENTS • 9062 Schools in 2007; 10,998 in 2008 • 147,641 Teachers in 2007; 157,244 in 2008 • 26 million textbooks printed in 2008 • Adult literacy program will serve 1,300 communities 2008 – 2013 • Adult literacy rate is

6,000,000

Boys Girls

5,000,000

4,000,000

3,000,000

2,000,000

1,000,000

~ 28%

0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

(women ~ 12%; men ~ 43%)

Are 6 to 14 year old children in your household going to school?
Access to Schools (Boys) Access to Schools (Girls)

Percent responding “Yes”
80 - 100% 60 - 80% 40 - 60% 20 - 40% 0 - 20%
Source: ANQAR Survey; last version completed Mar 09.

UNCLASSIFIED

20

Economy & Essential Services
Gross Licit Domestic Product
12

NATO OTAN

Billions US $

6 4 2 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

60% 53%53% 50% Dec 08 Mar 08

40%

Are you satisfied/dissatisfied with the provision of services in the area? (Percent responding ‘satisfied’ or ‘very satisfied’) 40%
25% 18% 28%
Dec 08 Mar 08 35% 33% 29% 30% 28% 25% 22%
20%

37%

30%

25%

35%

20%

30%

25%

10% 2% 2% 0% Better The Same Worse Refused / Don't Know
15%

10%

5%

0%

UNCLASSIFIED

Water

Healthcare

Electricity

Jobs/Employment

Source: IMF

Has your family's economic situation gotten better, stayed the same or gotten worse compared to 12 months ago?

10 8

21

Public Perception: INS v. GIRoA Influence
“Between the Anti-Government Elements (AGE)* and the Government, who has more influence in your area?"

NATO OTAN

100% 10% 80% 14% 17% 27% 60% 19% 19% 17% 15% 19% 18%

40%

77% 56%

68%

62%

63%

20%

GIRoA Most Influence
0% Apr 08 Jul 08 Sep 08 Dec 08 Mar 09

Taliban/AGE Neither/Don't Know GIRoA
* Word used in Dari & Pashto to encompass all AGEs
Source: ANQAR Survey; last version completed Mar 09.

Down arrow indicates change in color rating relative to previous survey (i.e. Zabul changed from “Neither” to “AGE Most Influence”) Up arrow indicates change in color rating relative to last survey

GIRoA Most Influence, but <50% say so Neither AGE Most Influence

UNCLASSIFIED

22

Public Perception of the Government
Do you believe the Government is going in the right direction or wrong direction?
60%

NATO OTAN

Dec 08
50% 43% 40% 50%

Mar 09

30% 30% 25% 19% 19%

20%

10%

8%

7%

0% Right Direction
Source: ANQAR Survey; last version completed Mar 09.

Same Place

Wrong Direction

Refused / Don't Know
23

UNCLASSIFIED

Participation & Representation
Do you agree/disagree that the Provincial Council makes a difference for the province?
50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% .0% RC-Capital RC-North RC-West RC-South RC-East Agree, Dec 08 Agree, Mar 09

NATO OTAN

Source: ANQAR Survey; last version completed Mar 09.

UNCLASSIFIED

24

Public Perception: Who Provides Security
The Afghan National Police leads as the local provider of security for Afghans.
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Dec 08 Mar 09 Dec 08 Mar 09 Dec 08 Mar 09 Dec 08 Mar 09 Dec 08 Mar 09 Dec 08 Mar 09

NATO OTAN

“Who most brings security to your area?”
Refused / Don’t Know No one Taliban Foreign Forces Other Govt Agencies (not ANSF) Local Commanders Own Security ANA Shuras / Elders ANP

Nationwide

RC-Capital

RC-North

Source: ANQAR Survey; last version completed Mar 09.

RC-West RC-South UNCLASSIFIED

RC-East
25

Public Perception of ISAF

NATO OTAN

Overall, nearly one third of the population hold a positive opinion of ISAF, one third hold a fair opinion, and nearly one third hold a negative opinion.

“What is your opinion of ISAF?”
35% 33% 32%

Dec 08
30%

Mar 09

25% 21% 20% 22%

18% 16%

15% 12% 10% 9%

13%

8%

8% 8%

> 50% 25% – 50% < 25%

5%

0% Very Good Good Fair Bad Very Bad Don't Know

Percent within Province Responding Very Good or Good

Source: ANQAR Survey; last version completed Mar 09.

UNCLASSIFIED

26

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