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THEREALDEALS

Ins&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate

HiveofactivityatCavenagh
AmidthebusytrafficonCavenaghRoad,nexttotheIstana,aretwoshowflatswithsquadsofpropertyagentstaking turns to attend to prospective buyers walking in. Waterscape @ Cavenagh by Hiap Hoe and Hijauan by Selangor DredgingBerhad(SDB)werelaunchedrecently,givingthemarket241newunits.Ofthese,157unitshavebeensold, fetching$1,900psfforWaterscape@Cavenaghand$2,300psfforHijauan.Waterscape@Cavenaghisbuiltonthe sitesoftheformerClemenceauCourtandLeChateaucombined.Thereusedtobe95units,lessthanhalfofwhat thenewprojectoffers.HijauansitsontheformerCavenaghMansionssitethatwaspurchasedenbloclastyearfor $1,205psfppr. Eager for a slice of the action, the owners of the 174unit Cavenagh Gardens nearby have agreed to put up their developmentforsalefor$480500m.Butthisisnottheirfirstattempt.Theprojectlauncheditsfirstcollectivesalein October 2007 with an asking price of $619m and again in June 2008 during the global financial crisis, asking for $450m. In both instances, the owners failed to reach a deal with a developer. The freehold development sits on 129,256sqftofsprawlinglandwithatotalGFAof296,271sqft.Onapsfbasis,theaskingpriceis$1,6201,688psf ppr,implyingabreakevenofnearly$2,230psf.Tenderfortheprojectcloseson1November2011.Thehighestpsf priceinCavenaghwasachievedbyaunitatSDBsHijauan,whichsoldfor$2,498psflastmonth.Forthedeveloperto seeadecentmarginof15%,weestimatetheaveragesellingpricefortheredevelopmentofCavenaghGardensmust beatleast$2,600psf. ProjectsalongCavenaghRoad

Waterscape@ Cavenagh Hijauan

Source:URA

Co.RegNo:198700034E MICA(P):090/11/2009

SEEAPPENDIXIFORIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS

CAVENAGH
PrimarymarketpricesinCavenagh
2,500 2,000 1,500 Waterscape@Cavenagh 1,000 500 0 14Oct09
Source:URA

TheRealDeals20October2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

22Jan10

02May10

10Aug10

18Nov10

26Feb11

06Jun11

14Sep11

For the longest time, there were no new projects along Cavenagh Road. The successful en bloc of Le Chateauin2006andClemenceauCourtin2007putanendtothedrought.Thenewprojectthatroseatthe twositescombined,Waterscape@CavenaghbyHiapHoe,wasonlylaunchedlastyearandhassofarsold 148 units (74% takeup). Construction also started last year and is expected to complete in 2014. Prices achieved by units sold have held firm at an average of $1,900 psf. Just last month, Hijauan by SDB, the redevelopment of Cavenagh Mansions, was launched. The smallish project offers 41 units and saw nine unitssoldatamedianpriceof$2,326psf.

SecondarymarketpricesinCavenagh
2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 15Jun94
Source:URA

CavenaghGardens CavenaghCourt

01Dec96

20May99

05Nov01

23Apr04

10Oct06

28Mar09

14Sep11

Cavenagh Court and Cavenagh Gardens are two major projects along Cavenagh Road. Completed in the 1970s,unitsattheserelativelyolddevelopmentssellatasubstantialdiscount.Thelatestcaveatshowed thata1,840sqftunitatCavenaghCourtwassoldfor$1,377psf,whilethelastcaveatlodgedforCavenagh Gardens showed that a 1,550sqft unit sold for $1.89m, or $1,218 psf. If the en bloc sale of Cavenagh Gardensissuccessful,theownerscanexpecttopocketbetween$2.5mand$3meachfortheirunits.Going bythelasttransactedprice,thiswouldbeabout50%higherthaniftheunitsweresoldindividually.

MARKETSNAPSHOT

TheRealDeals20October2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

UpcomingVVIPLaunches ThreeBalmoral(District10)
A 40unit freehold development by Tong Eng locatedintheheartofthecity.Allunitsenjoy unobstructed panoramic view of the pristine GoodwoodHill.

PropertyPriceIndices
Index SRPIOverall(July11) RESIComposite(2Q11) URAPPI(2Q11) HDBResale(2Q11)

Change +0.2% 0.5 +2.0% +3.1%

Level 166.6 4.5 203.0 180.3

*Shhh... if you have not yet been invited, you are probablynotaVVIP.Waitforthepubliclaunch.

GovernmentLandSales(GLS)
RecentlyAwardedSites ChoaChuKangRoad/PhoenixRoad(32.3ksqm,335 units) Awarded to Far East and China Construction for $142.8m($410.5psfppr) Punggol Way / Punggol Field, EC (75.5k sqm, 720 units)AwardedtoFrasersCentrepointandKeongHong Constructionfor$219.5($270psfppr) Upper Serangoon Road / Pheng Geck Avenue (30.3k sqm, 330 units) Awarded to Tuan Sing for $185.2m ($567.3psfppr) Serangoon Garden Way (28.4k sqm, 80 units) AwardedtoCDL/HongLeongfor$105m($343.5psf) Punggol Field / Punggol Walk (48.8k sqm, 550 units) Awarded to Capital Development / ZACD for $169.6m ($323psfppr) Upper Serangoon Crescent / Upper Serangoon Road (86.2ksqm,860units)AwardedtoAllgreenfor$270.3m ($291.4psfppr) Jalan Loyang Besar / Pasir Ris Rise (36.3k sqm, 355 units) Awarded to Hoi Hup, Sunway and Straits Constructionfor$141m($361psfppr) Pasir Ris Drive 3 / Pasir Ris Link, EC (39.0k sqm, 390 units)AwardedtoHoLee/UnitedEngineersfor$122m ($291psfppr) Flora Drive (41.9k sqm, 415 units) Highest bid of $163m($361.2psfppr)fromKohBrothers ConfirmedList(RecentlyOpenforTender) YishunCentral7/CanberraDrive,EC(67.9ksqm,725 units)Tenderclosingon25October ReserveList(RecentlyOpenforTender) JalanJurongKechil(14.2ksqm,240units) BuangkokDr/SengkangCentral(55ksqm,495units) TanahMerahKechilRd(39.2ksqm,470units) StirlingRoadA(44.5ksqm,445units) StirlingRoadB(44.1sqm,445units) EliasRd/PasirRisDr3(32.7ksqm,295units) HillviewAve(35.4ksqm,405units) SengkangSquare(64.4ksqm,710units) Upper Serangoon View/ Upper Serangoon Road, EC (43.3ksqm,420units)
Source:HDB,URA

RecentresaletransactionsatCavenagh
Project TownhouseApartments SkyScraper TownhouseApartments TownhouseApartments TownhouseApartments CavenaghCourt CavenaghGardens CavenaghGardens CavenaghGardens CavenaghGardens CavenaghGardens CavenaghMansions CavenaghGardens TownhouseApartments TownhouseApartments TownhouseApartments CavenaghGardens CavenaghGardens CavenaghCourt CavenaghCourt CavenaghGardens CavenaghCourt CavenaghCourt
Source:URA

Tenure 99yr Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold

Contract month Sep11 Apr11 Apr11 Apr11 Dec10 Nov10 Sep10 Sep10 Sep10 Aug10 Jul10 Jul10 Jul10 Jun10 Jun10 May10 Apr10 Mar10 Jan10 Jan10 Dec09 Nov09 Oct09

Price ($psf) 947 1,277 875 956 1,000 1,377 1,218 1,204 1,244 1,194 1,110 1,749 1,132 1,003 963 1,049 1,101 1,071 1,395 1,352 1,077 1,319 1,292

PropertyStocks
Name CapitaLand CityDev HoBee HPL KepLand SingLand UOL Wheelock WingTai

Price 2.41 9.86 1.285 1.965 2.66 5.95 4.03 1.65 1.235

RNAV 3.97 13.27 2.76 4.41 5.25 10.42 N.A. N.A. 3.03

Disc/ Prem to RNAV 39% 26% 53% 55% 49% 43% N.A. N.A. 59%

Disc/ Premto NTA/share* NTA/share 3.18 24% 7.18 37% 2.13 40% 2.63 25% 2.72 2% 10.57 44% 6.39 37% 2.32 29% 2.25 45%

N.A.=NoCoverage*Asatlatestreported

MARKETSNAPSHOT

TheRealDeals20October2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

PrimaryMarket
Total no.of units No.of units soldto date Take up rate (%) Units sold (Aug) Median ($psf)

SecondaryMarket
District $psf Jul11 $psf Aug11 MoM% Change

City&Southwest(18) AscentiaSky 373 326 JoolSuites 52 39 Reflectionsat 1,129 816 KeppelBay SkylineResidences 283 175 TheUrbanite 46 18 Orchard/Tanglin/Holland(910) D'Leedon 1,715 435 TheVermonton 158 92 Cairnhill Newton/BukitTimah/Clementi(11+21)

87.4 75.0 72.3 61.8 39.1 25.4 58.2

4 16 6 16 18 14 3 9 439 22 4 11 11 13 21 11 33 11 202 26 39 72 23 151 15 14 176

1,350 1,668 1,781 1,920 1,478 1,537 2,705 2,086 1,015 1,237 1,257 1,090 1,324 1,372 1,433 1,183 929 870 898 713 1,529 686 984 1,053 905 1,314 706

City&Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/BukitTimah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang EastCoast Changi/PasirRis Serangoon/Thomson West North


Source:URA

1,421 1,672 1,172 928 1,039 760 858 783 737

1,470 1,727 1,229 970 1,023 778 918 755 739

3.4 3.3 4.9 4.5 1.5 2.4 7.0 3.6 0.3

RentalMarket
District $psfpm Jul11 Yield $psfpm Yield % Aug11 %

BuckleyClassique 64 42 65.6 Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang(1214) Euhabitat 748 CentraLoft 47 LeRegal 88 Vacanza@East 473 EastCoast(1516) ParcBleu 55 Ubber388 95 Vibes@EastCoast 117 WaterfrontIsle 561 Changi/PasirRis(1718) Seastrand 473 Waterview 696 Serangoon/Thomson(1920) Boathouse 493 Residences AustvilleResidences 540 (EC) ParkResidences 41 Kovan Riverparc 504 Residences(EC) Terrasse 414 TheLuxurie 622 TheMinton 1,145 ThomsonGrand 361 West(2224) BlossomResidences 602 (EC) North(2528) TheMiltonia 410 Residences Woodhaven 337
Source:URA

439 46 5 349 26 41 100 480 258 553 202 311 39 394 292 151 698 121 365

58.7 97.9 5.7 73.8 47.3 43.2 85.5 85.6 54.5 79.5 41.0 57.6 95.1 78.2 70.5 24.3 61.0 41.0 60.6

City&Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/BukitTimah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang EastCoast Changi/PasirRis Serangoon/Thomson West North


Source:URA

4.8 4.4 3.3 2.9 3.2 2.7 3.0 2.8 2.5

4.1 3.2 3.4 3.8 3.7 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.1

5.3 4.4 3.3 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.5

4.3 3.1 3.2 3.8 3.6 4.3 3.5 4.6 4.1

Top5ResaleTransactionsby$psf
Project Tenure District $psf

ArdmoreII PatersonSuites MarinaBayResidences TheClaymore TheMetz


Source:URA

Freehold Freehold 99yr(fm2005) Freehold Freehold

9 9 1 9 9

2,940 2,812 2,683 2,659 2,564

Bottom5ResaleTransactionsby$psf
Project Tenure District $psf

LakesideTower GoodviewApartments SinChuanGarden SerayaCourt AstonMansions


Source:URA

99yr(fm1975) Freehold Freehold Freehold 99yr(fm1995)

22 14 14 15 14

524 576 589 590 593

287 207

70 61.4

24 14

845 995

DEVELOPERSLANDBANK
Developer District 06 09 10 10 11 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 23 23 Sentosa 01 02 04 04 04 04 19 22 03 09 10 10 15 16 20 26 Sentosa Sentosa 02 16 02 05 09 12 12 21 09 10

TheRealDeals20October2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

CityDev

KepLand

CapitaLand

HoBee UOL Allgreen Wheelock

Landbank SouthBeach(BeachRoad) Futura(LeonieRoad) BoulevardHotel(CuscadenRoad) LuckyTower(GrangeRoad) BuckleyClassique(BuckleyRoad) HedgesPark(FloraRoad) NVResidences(PasirRis) PasirRisGrove,parcel3+stateland(PasirRis) PasirRisDrive8,parcels4+5(PasirRis) Tampines/UppChangiRdNorth H2OResidences(SengkangWestAve) BartleyRoadGLS(BartleyRoad) ChoaChukangGLS(EC)(ChoaChuKangDrive) SegarRoadGLS(EC)(SegarRoad) ResidencesatW(SentosaCove) TotalUnsoldUnits MarinaBaySuites(MarinaBay) Keppel&GETowerssite(TanjongPagar) ReflectionsatKeppelBay(KeppelBay) KeppelBayPlot3(KeppelBay) KeppelBayPlot4(KeppelBay) KeppelBayPlot5(KeppelBay) SengkangGLSsite(SengkangSquare) TheLakesideResidences(LakesideDrive) TotalUnsoldUnits TheInterlace(GillmanHeights) UrbanResort(CairnhillRd) Dleedon(FarrerRd) TheNassim(NassimRd) MarinePoint(MarineParade) BedokTownCentreSite(BedokCentral) BishanGLSsite(BishanStreet14) YioChuKangsite(YioChuKangRd) TotalUnsoldUnits SeascapeatSentosaCove(SentosaCove) PinnacleatSentosaCove(SentosaCove) TotalUnsoldUnits SpottiswoodeResidences(SpottiswoodePark) BedokReservoir(BedokReservoirRd) TotalUnsoldUnits Skysuites@Anson(EnggorStreet) ProjectatWestCoastRd(WestCoastRoad) RVResidences(RiverValley) RiverBay(MarThomaRd) Riviera38(MarThomaRd) TheCascadia(BukitTimahRoad) TotalUnsoldUnits ScottsSquare(ScottsRoad) Ardmore3(ArdmorePark) TotalUnsoldUnits

Tenure 99 Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold 99 99 99 99 Freehold 99 99 99 99 99

99 Freehold 99 99 99 99 99 99

99 Freehold 99 Freehold Freehold 99 99 Freehold

99 99

Freehold 99

99 Freehold 999 999 999 Freehold

Freehold Freehold

Unsold Units 119 122 203 178 22 181 36 752 1,517 605 153 560 490 237 207 5,381 77 620 313 307 234 94 471 24 2,140 351 40 1,280 55 150 469 650 140 3,135 112 357 469 35 640 675 194 80 248 147 102 25 796 91 84 175

DEVELOPERSLANDBANK(contd)
Developer Guocoland BtSembawang District 02 10 26 09 09 09 09 15 16 16 18 18 19 19 19 27 03 09 09 10 10 11 23 10 15 17 19 9 9 9 10 Sentosa

TheRealDeals20October2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

FrasersCentrepoint

WingTai

MCLLand

SCGlobal

Source:HDB,URA

Landbank Tenure TanjongPagarGLSwhitesite(PeckSeah/ChoonGuan) 99 LeedonResidence(LeedonHeights) 99 TheWaterline(YioChuKangRd) Freehold TotalUnsoldUnits TheVermontonCairnhill(CairnhillRd) Freehold PatersonSuites(PatersonRd) Freehold StThomasWalk(StThomasWalk) Freehold TotalUnsoldUnits StarHubCentre 99 FlamingoValley(SiglapRd) Freehold WaterfrontGold(BedokReservoirRd) 99 WaterfrontIsle(BedokReservoirRd) 99 Seastrand(PasirRisDrive3) 99 PasirRisGLSsite(FloraDrive) 99 BoathouseResidences(UpperSerangoonRoad) 99 EsparinaResidences(Sengkang) 99 PunggolGLSmixedsite(PunggolCentral) 99 EightCourtyards(YishunAve2) 99 TotalUnsoldUnits AscentiaSky(Redhill) 99 HELIOSResidence(CairnhillCircle) Freehold BelleVueResidences(OxleyWalk) Freehold LeNouvelArdmore(ArdmorePark) Freehold Anderson18(ArdmorePark) Freehold L'VIV(NewtonRd) Freehold ForesqueResidences(PetirRoad) 99 TotalUnsoldUnits NOBHill(EweBoonRd) Freehold CasaNassau(EastCoastRd) Freehold PasirRisGLSsite(JalanLoyangBesar) 99 Terrasse(HougangAve2) 99 TotalUnsoldUnits TheMarq(PatersonHill) Freehold Hilltops(CairnhillCircle) Freehold MartinNo.38(MartinRd) Freehold TheArdmore(ArdmoreRoad) Freehold SevenPalms(SentosaCove) 99 TotalUnsoldUnits GrandTotal

Unsold Units 500 424 40 964 66 24 221 311 240 220 4 81 215 380 291 1 685 141 2,258 47 64 38 42 157 40 299 687 70 65 580 122 837 37 208 23 50 31 349 18,177

SINGAPOREDISTRICTMAP

TheRealDeals20October2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 BoatQuay,Chinatown,HavelockRoad,MarinaSquare,RafflesPlace,SuntecCity AnsonRoad,Chinatown,NeilRoad,RafflesPlace,ShentonWay,TanjongPagar AlexandraRoad,TiongBahru,Queenstown Keppel,MountFaber,Sentosa,TelokBlangah BuonaVista,Dover,PasirPanjang,WestCoast CityHall,HighStreet,NorthBridgeRoad BeachRoad,BencoolenRoad,Bugis,Rochor LittleIndia,FarrerPark,SerangoonRoad Cairnhill,Killiney,LeonieHill,Orchard,Oxley Balmoral,BukitTimah,GrangeRoad,Holland,OrchardBoulevard,RiverValley,TanglinRoad Chancery,BukitTimah,DunearnRoad,Newton Balestier,Moulmein,Novena,ToaPayoh PotongPasir,Macpherson Eunos,Geylang,Kembangan,PayaLebar Katong,MarineParade,Siglap,TanjongRhu Bayshore,Bedok,ChaiChee Changi,Loyang,PasirRis PasirRis,Simei,Tampines Hougang,Punggol,Sengkang AngMoKio,Bishan,BraddellRoad,Thomson Clementi,UpperBukitTimah,HumeAvenue BoonLay,Jurong,Tuas BukitBatok,ChoaChuKang,HillviewAvenue,UpperBukitTimah Kranji,LimChuKang,SungeiGedong,Tengah Admiralty,Woodlands Tagore,YioChuKang Admiralty,Sembawang,Yishun Seletar,YioChuKang

Source:expats2singapore.com

TheRealDeals

20October2011

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TheRealDeals

20October2011

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