CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For release: Tuesday, October 25, 2011 7:00 am (ET) The Race for the

Republican Nomination October 19-24, 2011 Herman Cain and Mitt Romney continue to the lead the pack of Republican candidates for the party’s nomination, with the edge going to Cain in this poll. These two candidates were tied for the lead earlier this month. Interviews for this poll were conducted after last Tuesday’s debate. Rick Perry - who led the field a month ago - has now slipped to fifth place, just behind Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul. Only 6% of Republican primary voters would like to see Perry as the Republican nominee – just a quarter of the support he received in September. Cain, however, has vaulted to the top. A month ago, only 5% of Republican primary voters supported him; that number has risen to 25% today. Romney’s support has risen 5 points since September. 2012 Republican Nomination for President (among Republican primary voters) Now 10/3/2011 Herman Cain 25% 17% Mitt Romney 21 17 Newt Gingrich 10 8 Ron Paul 8 7 Rick Perry 6 12 Michele Bachmann 2 4 Rick Santorum 1 3 Jon Huntsman 1 2 Undecided/Don’t know 14 18

9/16/2011 5% 16 7 5 23 7 1 1 22

Cain’s rise is largely due to Tea Party supporters within the Republican primary electorate. 32% of that group backs him now, more than four times the number that supported him in September. Romney’s support among Tea Partiers is similar to what it was earlier this month, and up 6 points from September, while Perry’s support has declined. Just 7% of Tea party supporters back Perry now, compared to 30% in September. Cain leads among self-identified conservatives, while he and Romney are virtually tied among moderates. Tea Party Supporters: 2012 Republican Nomination for President (among Republican primary voters who support the Tea Party) Now 10/3/2011 9/16/2011 Herman Cain 32% 24% 7% Mitt Romney 18 17 12 Newt Gingrich 15 13 8 Ron Paul 9 2 6 Rick Perry 7 12 30 Michele Bachmann 2 4 8 Jon Huntsman 1 1 0 Rick Santorum 1 1 1 Undecided/Don’t know 8 16 18

However, the race remains fluid: Just 19% of Republican primary voters with a candidate choice say their minds are made up, while 80% say it’s too early to say for sure who they support for the nomination. This is similar to the state of the race in late 2007. Mind Made Up Whom to Support? (among Republican Primary Voters with a Choice) Now 10/3/2011 12/2007 Yes 19% 19% 23% Too early 80 76 76 Americans are getting interested in the 2012 race for president. 70% of registered voters nationwide are paying at least some attention to the 2012 election campaign, including 31% who are paying a lot of attention. Majorities of both parties are tuning in, but 78% of Republicans are paying attention, compared to 68% of Democrats. Attention to the 2012 Campaign (among registered voters) All Reps Dems Inds A lot 31% 34% 35% 24% Some 39 44 33 41 Not much 21 12 25 24 None 10 10 8 10 ____________________________________________________________________
This poll was conducted by telephone from October 19-24, 2011 among 1,650 adults nationwide. 1,475 interviews were conducted with registered voters and 455 with voters who said they plan to vote in a Republican primary. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of registered voters could be plus or minus three points and four points for the sample of Republican primary voters. The error for subgroups may be higher. An oversample was conducted for this survey which will be analyzed in a future poll release. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL The Race for the Republican Nomination October 19-24, 2011 q26 How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2012 presidential campaign -- a lot, some, not much, or no attention so far? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 31 34 35 24 39 44 33 41 21 12 25 24 10 10 8 10 0 0 0 1

A lot Some Not much None DK/NA

Sep11b % 32 38 22 8 0

q27 Which one of these candidates would you like to see the Republican Party nominate for President in 2012 - Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, or would you like to see someone else nominated? ** REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ** 25 21 10 8 6 2 1 1 12 11 na 3 Sep11b* 17 17 8 7 12 4 2 3 10 8 2 10

Herman Cain Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Ron Paul Rick Perry Michele Bachmann Jon Huntsman Rick Santorum Someone else Undecided (Vol.) No one DK/NA

q28 Is your mind made up or is it still too early to say for sure? * REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS WITH A CANDIDATE CHOICE * Cain Romney Total Supporters Supporters Mind made up 19 18 23 Still too early 80 82 76 DK/NA 1 0 1 UNWEIGHTED 1650 1475 399 583 668 455 WEIGHTED 1329 419 (25%) 574 (35%) 657 (40%) 422

Sep11b 19 76 5

Total Respondents Total Registered Voters Total Republicans Total Democrats Total Independents Total Republican Primary Voters

Note: An oversample was conducted for this survey which will be analyzed in a future poll release.

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