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SUNDAY, 02 OCTOBER 2011 18:16 ADNAN KHAN
We receive many queries on our methodology of political analysis as well as many questions on specific analysis we have made on different regions of the world. With his in mind Khilafah.com outlines its methodology that it uses to conduct political analysis. This should help with understanding how we have come to some of our conclusions and outline the blueprint we follow. Before undertaking any analysis, the reasons as to why any person would undertake political analysis should be clear. We engage in political analysis as we are entrusted with carrying the da’wah to the whole world. This is why it is indispensable for the ummah to be aware of world's affairs, she should comprehend the latest trends, understand its circumstances, and pursue the key issues of the day. This can only be done by paying attention to global politics. Analysing political trends is not an academic exercise, but is undertaken in order to protect the ummah and convey the deen.
هُو الَّذِي أَرْ سل رسُولَه بالهُدَ ى ودِين الحق لِيُظهرهُ علَى الدين كلِّه ولَ ْو كره َ ِ َ َ ِ ُ ِ ِّ َ َ ِ ْ ِّ َ ْ ِ َ ٰ ْ ِ ُ َ َ َ َ المشركون َ ُ ِ ْ ُْ
"Indeed He is the one who sent His Messenger with guidance and the Deen of truth to make it prevail over every other religion even if the idolaters detest it." (As-Saff: 9) In understanding politics a certain number of general principals need to be understood and then constantly pursued via the news and events as they unfold. With this in mind the following principles summarise our blueprint: 1. Politics is the polices, plans and styles used to take care of a nations affairs domestically, this is conducted by a government and its people, whist a nations foreign policy is the relations a country builds with the nations of the world in order to achieve its goals. 2. Nations around the world are either ideological in nature where they have adopted an ideology which gives the nation direction and acts as a basis for deriving legislation, constructing policies and dealing with new issues, such as the US, Britain, France and Germany with Capitalism. Then there are other nations which do not embrace an ideology but have interests which are defined by their history or location, for them the protection of the interest is what drives policy development as can be seen with India when it looks at Pakistan or Tibet wanting independence from China. The application of the ideology and the attempts to protect and achieve national interests leads to interactions across the world and this is the international situation. 3. The state of affairs in any nation in the world does not remain the same; it goes through many changes. It can go through strength and weaknesses; it can yield immense power and influence
It is also possible to analyze the strength of the powers in the world bearing in mind such an assessment is liable for change. J Rielly outlined this in a policy paper: ‘These U. Britain is a good example of this. The continued sluggish progress and prolonging fits perfectly for the presence of nearly 100 000 US troops in the region. For the current global balance of power see Strategic Estimate 2011. Understanding the global balance of power apart from knowing the nations who are the world’s powers. However an analysis of the international situation at any given time is possible bearing in mind it is liable for change. After WW2 Britain was weakened and was replaced by both the Soviet Union and America. By becoming a global export machine the world’s powers are forced to interact with China on an equal footing. it goes through many changes. For further information see ‘Constructing the Khilafah’s foreign policy. it was the world’s superpower before WW1 and it was challenged by Germany. Britain in a period of 60 years experienced influence. 5. which led to WW2. This strategic area with vast potential oil reserves . or because its relations with other states became stronger or weaker. Hence any analysis of the global balance of power is a description of a particular point in time. Understanding the global situation at any given time does not mean one must be acquainted with every political issue and every detail of global importance.over many other nations or be a state under the influence of other nations. China has been pursuing multilateral talks for the reunification of North and South Korea trying to ensure instability doesn’t not take hold within its region. The international situation will always be in a state of flux because it is determined by the political-economic situation of some states from one circumstance to another. India and China are good examples of this. Such change of situations and circumstances is either because a nation became stronger or weaker. but to enhance U. It is the status of the superpower and the nations that compete with it. This is a stark difference to only 30 years ago when China was considered a poverty stricken nation. such as Luxemburg. The statements from such meetings have been contradictory where China has been pessimistic about the talks with distance on most issues whilst the US has continually remarked successful negotiations. The German defeat strengthened Britain. when the international situation changes such an analysis becomes part of history. The international situation is the structure of the relations between the world’s nations. weakness power and strength. which is the constant competition between the world’s powers over the position of the superpower. This is why the international situation is not stable.’ 6.S. Britain remained the most influential nation until Germany challenged it again. 4. military control over territory in the South China Sea. their policies and aims requires the knowledge of international relations. In such a case. The nations who do not make up the global balance of power need not be pursued. troops are in the region not simply to fight the "terrorist groups" causing local instability. The following examples illustrate this: The North Korea Nuclear weapons stand-off with the US is a direct result of US attempts to contain China. Similarly India’s change in economic fortunes has resulted in it becoming a nation that is taken much more serious in the International arena compared to 20 years ago. a change in the global balance of power would result due to change in the balance of powers existent in the world. This is why it is impossible to draw a constant framework or a set of guidelines to view the international situation as the international situation is always in a state of flux. The US has not directly negotiated with North Korea which is exasperating the issue. This is why understanding the status of each of the states that have influence on the international situation is the basis for understanding the global balance of power.S. as the major actions in the world are a result of the world’s powers competing with each other in different arenas across the world. China is taken much more seriously on the international arena due to its economic development.
presence and nascent military alliances with Southeast Asian nations exacerbates Chinese anxieties and impedes independent accords among Asian states though such mechanisms as the ASEAN Regional Forum. Russia maintains close contacts with elements in South Ossetia where separatists welcome Moscow's supportive stance. The US emerged the world’s superpower after WW2 and was challenged by the Soviet Union for five decades until its collapse in 1990. China is faced with significant problems. Russia has used its relations with North Ossetia to push South Ossetia’s to call for independence thus thwarting US aims in the region. most South Ossetians have Russian passports and the Russian Rouble is commonly used in trade. the activities of the Falun Gong among many other dissident groups aiming for independence. Competition between the world powers is something that has existed since the beginning of time and will continue until the day of judgement.S. whilst France and Britain competed with it. Colorado. The competition . while the Dalai Lama and about 100. The Khilafah then defeated the remnants of the Persian and Byzantine empires and was the world’s superpower until the 17th century facing challenges from the Mongols and the crusaders during this time.’ The call for independence by South Ossetia from Georgia is a direct result of competition between the US and Russia for control over Eastern Europe. The CIA established a secret military training camp for the Dalai Lama's resistance fighters at Camp Hale near Leadville. Russia was able to bring Serbia under its area of influence and has used it as a bulwark to frustrate US dominance in the region. After WW1 Britain emerged as the world’s superpower and France competed with it. The call by Tibet for separation from China is also a struggle between China and the US. The US utilised the Balkan wars to contain Russia in a post Soviet world and bring the former communist states under the US area of influence. 8. To Georgia's deep annoyance. Serbia has been a barrier for the American agenda and as a result the US was keen to weaken it initially by engineering the separation of Montenegro from Serbia. then separating Kosovo from it and then the NATO attack on Serbian armed forces in Kosovo as well as in Serbia itself. Supremacy can be for the people or the nation as was the case with Nazi Germany. Tens of thousands of Tibetans were left dead.sits aside the shipping lanes to the Middle East and offers access to much of Southeast Asia. The Roman Empire became the superpower and the Persian Empire competed with it. with the Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang province. whilst South Ossetia fell into Georgia in the dying days of the USSR. US interference in the region begun in the 1950’s through the CIA in order to counter China’s adoption of communism. In ancient times Egypt under the Pharaohs was the superpower and Mesopotamia competed with it.000 followers were forced to flee across the treacherous Himalayan passes to India and Nepal. France and England then competed with the Uthmani Khilafah and were able to weaken it. in the US. It can also be for the propagation of ones values in order to make them supreme as was the case of the Khilafah and Communist Russia. 7. The expanded U. On the eve of WW1 Germany shifted the global balance of power. Germany once again challenged Britain as the world’s superpower and only WW2 stopped German hegemony. North Ossetia is a semi autonomous region in Russia. The Tibetan guerrillas were trained and equipped by the CIA for guerrilla warfare and sabotage operations against the communist Chinese. There are two fundamental reasons why international struggle and competition exists between nations and these reasons will always remain the case. The disastrous bloody uprising in 1959 by the Free Tibet Movement was a large scale covert action campaign conducted by the CIA against the communist Chinese in Tibet. Tibetan people find themselves trapped between an oppressive Beijing and a manipulative Washington attempting to weaken China. These are either for supremacy or competition over resources.
Competition between America. French culture and through its economic strength. France like Britain has been a key player in European history and politics. With some of the world’s largest energy reserves it is now developing a state of the art military and competing directly with the US in regions where the US for nearly a decade had uncontested hegemony. Russia in the last decade has managed to gain control over its mineral resources and utilities and banished many oligarchs who benefited from the break-up of the Soviet Union. . their history as this will shape the nation. as a result of America’s apparent weakness. The nations that are able to compete with the US are Russia. After this one would need to pursue the daily events via the news and asses the political actions of each of these nations relative to the political events that take place. all four nations have international ambitions across the world. German influence has expanded economically through a distinct set of economic policies with a virtual hegemony in Eastern Europe. Britain has managed to achieve its interests through a policy of preserving its global ambitions by working with the US and the EU. who is the world superpower.’ 10. whilst it works against the US in Sudan. This would also explain what their political strategies are as well as explain their motives. Britain. Lebanon. Britain and France are all capitalists’ state but their histories have defined them differently.for resources is what dominates the West today. Afghanistan and in many other regions is all for colonialism and for controlling the resources in those regions. Britain as a nation will always compete with the US. British policy makers have accepted the nation's weakness after WW2 and developed a policy of preservation rather then outright competition with the US. However a decade of war is bleeding the US to death and this has led to the emergence of larger. however this not translated into political power. Britain is a key player in Europe and has frustrated many US plans. Whilst they all embrace Capitalism they are all different in how they approach global issues. however beyond this it lacks the resources or the economy to achieve anything substantial. Nigeria and Libya. its policies for decades has been centred on creating influence across the world through its colonies. British foreign policy is built upon having a role in Europe and influencing the US. By also comprehending the history of the nations that are the world’s powers one can comprehend the workings of such states. Germany’s apologetic stance in global affairs due to its role in WW2 leads it to pursue its aims through the EU rather than unilaterally using its economic advantages for the nation itself. it maintains military bases across the world in order to protect its interests. the challenges stemming from her competitors have grown in size and scope and today are much stronger. Germany’s foreign policy is dominated by its economic aims. Britain. Britain works with the US in Palestine and on North Korea and Iran. Any political analysis requires one to understand who the world’s powers are. France and Germany in Europe. For further information see ‘The end of the American century and the rise of the rest. Britain historically has been a world power and still has influence in its former colonies. Germany is one of the largest economies and an economic powerhouse in Europe. whilst at the same time working to divert. complicate and limit the aims of both. France and Germany. deeper and broader challenges for the US in different regions of the world which has come to be symbolised as the ‘rise of the rest. In 2004 it was the world’s largest exporter at $912 billion. alter. America. Today the US does not enjoy the same primacy as it did prior to its invasion of Iraq. The US is the world’s largest economy by far and the most advanced nation technologically. Iraq. 9. The nations that constitute world’s powers today are the US. This can only be achieved by constantly pursuing the events as they occur. although falteringit still has the greatest influence around the world on international politics.
The emergence of the AKP has seen Turkey grow closer to the US and act as an agent for hire in global issues as was recently quoted by a US ambassador in a Wikileaks release. mean that one does not have a comprehensive framework to view events. how they developed. it joined NATO and sided with the US during the Cold War against Communism. Conclusions Political analysis like any discipline has its methodology. with the world’s largest economy after the US. What the Turkish leadership does when its interests directly conflict with the US will prove fundamentally whether Turkey is a rising independent power. India has a large population and possesses nuclear weapons and has the potential in the future to influence its region. which allows one to observe events as they happen and then act as a guide in understanding their circumstances. however Turkey has always remained involved in its region be it Cyprus. their beliefs and values as well as the ideologies they have embraced would give one an understanding of the motives of these individual states. where it was a world power. 14. China has the most influence. This is primarily due to its history. understanding the histories of these states. we can see that Turkey has made certain limited and largely regional interests the basis its foreign policy rather then using these interests as a means to spread secularism. After the great powers there are some nations that have influence in some circumstances on specific issues due to their history or location. but taking part and ensuring such aims are achieved. 13. This international situation can be understood very clearly at any given time as the global situation is the competition between the world’s powers to achieve their interests. As long as its economy does not implode China remains a challenge to the US in South East Asia and possibly beyond. Japan is an economic power with one of the largest economies in the world after the US. Turkey has sided with the West in all most all issues of global nature. However this discipline does have some general principals. However outside the economic sphere it has no influence. Turkey as a nation never carried this to the world as an ideology. Its current policy of taking part in the coalition in Afghanistan and the removal of article 9 in its pacifist constitution allowing it to deploy troops and develop nuclear weapons. 12. These nations all compete with each other globally as well as with the superpower the US. In analysing Turkey it can be noticed that what the Turkish leadership says is different to what it does. What it says is mainly rhetoric. Turkey's mediation in the Palestinian issue takes place when the US has decided indirect negotiations should take place on the final settlement. which is liable to change at any time. Turkey is not offering anything new on these issues. Whilst the Turkish leadership embraced secularism. This is not possible in politics because unlike other disciplines politics is too fluid to have fixed principals. 11. that take place. China is now showing signs of ambitions beyond its region however it for the moment represents an economic challenge to the US rather than political. If we apply all of this to Turkey. Turkey is only manoeuvring within the space the US has permitted it. with very few principles set in stone. is the US attempting to counter balance Chinese influence in the region. Similarly America's policy of containing Russia and pushing Russian assertiveness all the way back into Russian territory has seen Turkey play a leading role in the Caucuses to complicate Russian aims. which never translates into action. China has become a global exporting power. This is the global balance of power currently. Pursuing the political . All the rhetoric against Israel has not changed Turkish policy towards Israel. however unlike other disciplines it does not have detailed rules.After the nations that directly compete with the US across the world. the Balkans. This is what often makes politics difficult to comprehend as the motive of nations in the many incidents. Caucuses and the Middle East. whilst Italy was once a power prior to WW2.
these maybe useful to follow for domestic or local analysis but the competition between the world’s powers is the heart of political analysis.events as they happen becomes central to political analysis as the general principals in this discipline apply on these issues. Many news outlets have agendas. it also requires one to differentiate between opinion and fact. In pursuing the news one should be careful in how some facts are reported. all news and events related to these need to be pursued. In pursuing the events one is looking for what actions took place in order to interpret it. This can be overcome through cross referencing facts from multiple sources. Many attempt to follow all the events including those that do not influence global politics. whilst many journalists may present some facts in a way to propagate a particular view. The question is what to follow and focus on. therefore care should be taken in differentiating between fact and opinion .