Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010

Monitoring the pulse of the
ENGINEERING*
profession
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Engineering Labour Market Tracking System Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018 Final Report, September 1, 2010
ReportOutline
ExecutiveSummary.....................................................................................................................4 1. 2. BackgroundandIntroduction ...............................................................................................16 . LabourMarketAssessments.................................................................................................22 ACanada.................................................................................................................................24 CivilEngineersCanada........................................................................................................27 MechanicalEngineersCanada..........................................................................................30 ElectricalandElectronicsEngineersCanada..................................................................33 ChemicalEngineersCanada..............................................................................................36 IndustrialandManufacturingEngineersCanada...........................................................39 PetroleumEngineersCanada...........................................................................................42 . AerospaceEngineersCanada...........................................................................................45 Computer(exceptsoftwareengineers)EngineersCanada............................................48 AllOtherEngineersCanada..............................................................................................51 TotalEngineersCanada ....................................................................................................55 . BBritishColumbia................................................................................................................60 TotalEngineersBritishColumbia.....................................................................................61 CAlberta................................................................................................................................64 CivilEngineersAlberta......................................................................................................65 Electrical,MechanicalandChemicalEngineersAlberta.................................................68 PetroleumEngineersAlberta...........................................................................................71 OtherEngineersAlberta....................................................................................................74 DSaskatchewan....................................................................................................................81 TotalEngineersSaskatchewan............................................................................................82 EManitoba.............................................................................................................................85 TotalEngineersManitoba...................................................................................................86 FOntario................................................................................................................................89 CivilEngineersOntario......................................................................................................91
Prism Economics and Analysis
MechanicalEngineersOntario..........................................................................................94 ElectricalandElectronicsEngineersOntario..................................................................97 IndustrialEngineersOntario..........................................................................................100 AllOtherEngineersOntario............................................................................................103 EngineersTotalOntario..................................................................................................106 GQuebec..............................................................................................................................110 CivilEngineersQuebec.....................................................................................................112 MechanicalEngineersQuebec..........................................................................................115 ElectricalEngineersQuebec..............................................................................................118 OtherEngineersQuebec...................................................................................................121 TotalEngineersQuebec....................................................................................................124 HAtlanticCanada.................................................................................................................128 3. ConclusionsandImplications..............................................................................................132
*ThetermENGINEERINGisanofficialmarkheldbytheCanadianCouncilofProfessional Engineers.
ExecutiveSummary
EngineersCanadainitiatedasystemfortrackinglabourmarketsaspartoftheEngineeringand TechnologyLabourMarketStudyin2008.Thetrackingsystemhasbeenupdatedin2010based onneweconomic,industryanddemographicprojectionsandinputfromProvincialLabour MarketInformationCommittees1. Theanalysiscoverstwentysixseparateengineeringlabourmarketsandprovidesanassessment ofconditionsthatwillassistindustrystakeholdersincluding: Employersandrecruiters Students,immigrantsandotherpotentialentrants Facultyandmanagersofpostsecondaryprograms Federalandprovincialgovernmentofficialsmanagingimmigrationandotherlabour marketprograms Provincialengineeringassociations TheEngineersCanadasystemtrackstrendsinlaboursupplyanddemandacrossrecenthistory andaddsanewprojectionfrom2010to2018.Thesetrendscoveraperiodofgrowingsupply earlyinthelastdecadeasasurgeofimmigrationarrived.Since2001immigrationhasdeclined rapidlywhilegraduationsfromengineeringprogramshaveincreasedslowly.Overthisperiod supplyhasslowlymoveddowntolineupwithdemand.Thisbalancewasinterruptedbythe recessionin2009asjobcutsweakenedmarkets. Mostmarketstrendbacktobalanceacrossthescenariofrom2010to2018.Keyexceptions emergeforoccupationswherelabourrequirementsaredrivenbyolderageprofilesandhigh levelsofretirementorwhereastrongeconomiccycleincreasesordecreasesemployment.This reportdescribesthecomponentsofsupplyanddemandandprospectsforrecruitingandjob search. Thesystemisbasedonhistoricaldataandfuturescenariosfor: Output,investmentandemploymentforengineeringintensiveprovincialindustries Employmentinengineeringoccupations GraduatesfromCanadianEngineeringAccreditationBoard(CEAB)programs Immigration(permanentandtemporaryforeignworkers)byengineeringoccupations Retirementandmortalityinengineers Theprovincialmeasuresarecombinedintoemploymentdriversthatreflectthedistributionof engineersacrossindustries.Eachdriverisbasedonprovincialeconomicconditionsacrossa scenariofrom2010to2018.Thesedriversareprovidedfromeconomicforecastspreparedby theCentreforSpatialEconomics.2
1 These committees were organized and invited to comment on an early draft by; Association of Professional Engineers and Geologists in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, Professional Engineers of Ontario, Ontario Society of Professional Engineers, Ordre des Ingenieurs du Quebec, Reseau des Ingenieurs du Quebec. 2 See the C4SE January 2010 Provincial Economic Forecast, Centre for Spatial Economics
Theannualchangeinemploymentisaddedtoretirementsandmortality(replacement demands)toestimatechanginglabourrequirements.Theseestimatesarecomparedto increasesinlaboursupplythroughgraduatesfrompostsecondaryprogramsandimmigration. Excesssupplyisdefinedasthedifferencebetweensupplyandlabourrequirements. Thesemeasuresarecombinedintoasummaryrankingonascalefrom1to5with1 representingaveryweakmarketand5atightmarket.
Rankings & Description
1 2
Significantexcessofsupplyoverdemand
No difficulty in recruiting qualified engineering staff with 0-5 years or 5-10 years of Canadian experience at established compensation norms within the local labour market.
Excessofsupplyoverdemand
No difficulty in recruiting qualified engineering staff with 0-5 years or with 5-10 years of Canadian experience at established compensation norms within the local or regional labour market. The geographic range of recruiting and the range of acceptable qualifications is broader than in 1.
Moderatesupplypressures
Difficulty in recruiting qualified engineering staff with more than 5 years of Canadian experience, with industry or technology-specific skills, and with appropriate non-technical skills. The time required to fill these positions is typically longer than historic norms. Vacancies sometimes need to be re-posted. Employers actively solicit applications from outside the local and regional labour market and reimburse applicants for travel expenses related to interviews, etc. Recruiting engineering staff with 05 years of Canadian experience poses fewer challenges.
Significantsupplypressures
Difficulty across the board in recruiting qualified engineering staff in the local and regional labour market. It is normal practice to actively solicit applications from outside the local and regional labour market and to reimburse applicants for travel expenses related to interviews. Employers are generally obliged to improve offered terms of compensation and to assist with re-location costs. Recruitment difficulties lead many employers to increase their use of third-party recruiters and to increase their outsourcing of engineering and technology work to consultancies or staff the assignment with engineering workers from another region. There is a significant increase in the risk of project delays and compensation-driven cost escalations.
Supplyconstraints
Systemic difficulty in recruiting qualified engineering staff. International recruiting is common among large employers. There is widespread perception that the consulting sector is working at full capacity and that there is little, if any, remaining scope to outsource engineering and technology work to qualified consultancies with a known track record.
RankingssummarizethefindingsfornationalmarketsandforBritishColumbia,Alberta, Saskatchewan,Manitoba,Ontario,QuebecandAtlanticCanada.
NationalFindings
ExhibitES1reportstherankingsfornineengineeringoccupations. ExhibitES1LabourMarketRankingsNationalSummary
Labour Market Rankings Summary Civil engineers Mechanical engineers Electrical and electronics Chemical Industrial and Manufacturing Petroleum Aerospace Computer All Other Total Engineers 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2 2 2 2 2 4 3 2 2 2
3 3 3 3 4 3 4 2 2 3
3 3 3 2 4 3 4 2 2 3
4 4 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 4
4 3 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 3
4 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 2 3
4 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3
4 4 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 3
4 4 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 4
4 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 4
KeyPoints:
Therecessionweakenedmarketsin2009asjobcutsunderminedlabourrequirements. OverallemploymentforengineersinCanadaregainslostgroundduring2010;returning toprerecessionlevelsduring2011. Amodestdropingraduationscombinedwithstablebutlowlevelsofimmigrationto limittheriseinexcesssupplyin2009andbalancemarketsin2010 Astrongrecoveryinmanufacturingandrelatedactivityfrom2010to2014increases employmentformechanical,electrical,chemical,industrialandotherdisciplines; o Theavailableworkforceinindustrialandmanufacturingengineeringwas reducedbyweakeningdemandsince2005andlargedeclinesinpermanent immigrationoverthepastdecade.
Labourrequirementsincreasemoderatelyinothersectors(e.g.government, construction)laterinthescenario. GraduationsfromCEABprogramswillrisein2011andthensustainhigherlevels; meetingthelabourrequirementslaterinthescenario. Datareliabilityisaconcernforsomesmallermarketsinparticularforpetroleum engineers. Retirementsandtheageprofileofeachworkforcedriveslabourrequirementslaterin thescenario, Levelsofimmigrationandgraduationestablishedinthe20082009periodarelikely sufficienttobalancemarketsacrossthecomingdecade Rankingsmeasuregeneralconditionsandmaynotreflecttightorweakconditionsfor specificoccupationsandregions. Marketconditionswillvarydependingontheexperienceleveloftheengineer.Note thatarankingof3signalsdifficultyrecruitingqualifiedengineerswithmorethan5 yearsofCanadianexperience. Replacementdemandsrelatedtoretirementsinmanyoccupationswilladdtocurrent challengesrecruitingexperiencedengineers.
BritishColumbia
Exhibit#ES2reportstheresultsforallengineersasagroupinBritishColumbia.Limited statisticalreliabilitypreventstrackingmoreindividualmarkets. ExhibitES2AllEngineers,BC
Labour Market Rankings All Engineers 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Laggingimmigrationcombinedwithemploymentgrowthtotightenmarketsin2007. Therecessionwassevereandexcesssupplyincreasedtoveryhighlevelsin2008and 2009. Therecoverywillbestrongin2010and2011,absorbingunemployedand underemployedengineers. Immigrationcontinuestofallfasterthanthesteadyriseingraduates: o Thelimitednumberofnewentrantswilltightenlabourmarketsduringthe recovery.
Alberta
Exhibit#ES3reportstheresultsforallengineersasagroupinAlberta.Statisticalreliabilityand independentestimatesallowtrackingforfourindividualmarkets. ExhibitES3AllEngineers,Alberta
Labour Market Rankings Summary Civil engineers Mechanical, Electrical, Chemical Petroleum All Other Total, All Engineers 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2 2 2 2 2
3 3 3 3 3
3 3 3 3 3
3 3 3 3 3
4 3 3 3 3
4 3 3 3 3
4 3 3 3 3
4 3 4 3 3
4 3 4 3 3
4 3 3 3 3
Therecessioncutjobsatthesametimeasimmigrationwasrisingandgraduationswere nearrecordlevels. Tightmarketsforcivilengineersreflectsteadyemploymentgrowth,theolderage profileandhigherreplacementdemand. Marketmeasuresforpetroleumengineersarelessreliablethanotheroccupations. Balancedmarketswithrankingsof3areconsistentwithshorttermrecruitingchallenges forspecializedskillsandexperience.
Saskatchewan
Exhibit#ES4reportstheresultsforallengineersasagroupinSaskatchewan.Limitedstatistical reliabilitypreventstrackingmoreindividualmarkets. ExhibitES4AllEngineers,Saskatchewan
SaskatchewanhadoneofthestrongesteconomiesinCanadain2009and2010andthe recessionhadamorelimitedimpactthere. Significantemploymentgrowthandlowlevelsofimmigrationkeptlabourmarketstight in2009. Largeindustrialandutilityprojectswillendin2012andmarketsmayweakenlaterin thescenario. Moderategrowthandasteadysupplyofnewentrantsmaintainbalancedmarketsover theforecastperiod.
Manitoba
Exhibit#ES5reportstheresultsforallengineersasagroupinManitoba.Limitedstatistical reliabilitypreventstrackingmoreindividualmarkets. ExhibitES5AllEngineers,Manitoba
Thesharpdeclineinmanufacturingemploymentin2009combinedwiththeabove averagenumberofnewentrantsin2008resultedinaneasingofmarketconditionsin 2009. Largeinvestmentsintheutilitiessectorstresstheprovinciallaboursupply,tightening marketsin2010,andoverthemediumterm. Asutilitysectorinvestmentswinddownin2014marketsreturntobalanceforthe remainderoftheforecastperiod.
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Ontario
Exhibit#ES6reportstheresultsforallengineersasagroupinOntario.Statisticalreliabilityand independentestimatesallowtrackingforfiveindividualmarkets
ExhibitES6AllEngineers,Ontario
Labour Market Rankings Civil engineers Mechanical engineers Electrical and Electronics Industrial and Manufacturing All Other Total, All Engineers
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
3 3 2 2 2 2
3 3 3 3 3 3
4 4 3 4 3 3
4 4 4 4 4 4
4 4 4 4 3 4
4 3 3 4 3 3
4 4 3 4 3 3
4 4 4 4 3 3
4 4 4 4 3 4
4 4 4 4 3 4
Engineeringlabourmarketswerereturningtomorebalancedconditionsfrom2006to 2008;recoveringfromaninfluxofimmigrantsthatpeakedin2001. Recessionin2008and2009weakenedmostmarkets. Therecoveryisgenerallymodestandlabourrequirementsarenotgrowingrapidlyby historicalstandards,but: o o Manufacturinggrowsoutofadeepslumpwithaperiodofstronginvestment. Thischangewillincreasedemandforengineersinrelatedfields.
Attheendofthescenario,from2014to2018,growthislimitedbutreplacement demandsforretirementsriseandimmigrationisneededtosustainworkforcelevels. o Retirementswilldominatelabourrequirementslaterinthescenarioandthis willaggravatedifficultiesrecruitingexperiencedengineers.
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Quebec
Exhibit#ES7reportstheresultsforallengineersasagroupinQuebec.Statisticalreliabilityand independentestimatesallowtrackingforfourindividualmarkets. ExhibitES7AllEngineers,Quebec
Labour Market Rankings Civil engineers Mechanical Electrical All Other Total Engineers
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
3 1 2 2 2
3 3 2 3 3
3 2 2 2 2
3 2 3 2 3
4 2 3 3 3
3 3 3 3 3
4 3 3 3 3
4 3 3 3 3
4 3 3 3 3
4 3 3 3 3
Tightermarketsforcivilengineersarerelatedtotheolderageprofileandhigher retirementdemandsforthisoccupation. Somevariationsinthepatternofenrolmentsandgraduationsmaytemporarilytighten orweakentheothermarkets.
AtlanticCanada
Exhibit#ES8reportstheresultsforallengineersasagroupinAtlanticCanada.Limited statisticalreliabilitypreventstrackingmoreindividualmarkets.
ExhibitES8AllEngineers,AtlanticCanada
Labour Market Rankings All Engineers
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Therecessionhadamildimpactonjobcreationwhilegraduationscontinuetorise. Recoveryisstrongenoughtotightenthemarketsasmigrationhasfallen. Overmostoftheprojection,thenumberofgraduatesandarrivingimmigrantsexceeds labourrequirements.
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FindingsandConclusions
The conclusions drawn by this study reflect both the economic model which underpins our assessment of current and projected labour market conditions, and the important input received from validation meetings. These meetings brought an industry perspective to bear on the conclusions from the economic model. 1. It is clear that there is an asymmetry between the way that employers and engineers look at the engineering labour and the way that standard economic statistics describe that market. Both employers and engineers ascribe a high degree of importance to general business experience, and to specialized, technical experience. Indeed, experience is so important in the engineering profession that the measurement of both the supply and the demand for engineers needs to be parsed in terms of experience categories. 2. It is clear from our analysis of specific engineering labour markets that many of these markets are characterized by a surplus of recent graduates, who have little or no experience, but a shortage of experienced engineers with five or more years of practical experience and the specialized, experience-based technical skills that employers require. This concurrence of a labour surplus with a skills shortage was discussed in the reports produced by the Engineering and Technology Labour Market Study. 3 3. The difficulties that many employers experience in recruiting engineers with specific experience and skills has led to a sharp increase in the use of foreigntrained engineers brought into Canada by employers under the Temporary Foreign Worker program. Increasing the supply of domestic graduates, by itself, will not address employers skills needs. New graduates are not a substitute for experienced engineers with 5-10 years of experience and specialized technical skills. 4. The difficulty that many employers have in recruiting engineers with specialized skills and experience also has led to an increase in off-shoring. Our analysis suggests that skill shortages are at least as important as cost factors, if not more important, in driving the increase in off-shoring. 5. The traditional academic fields of study - civil, mechanical, chemical, electrical are just the starting point. As graduates move into specific industries, they evolve into aerospace, systems, transportation, structural, industrial, manufacturing, petroleum, and other specialized engineers, to list but a few examples. In some cases, university curricula now reflect these specializations. In most cases, however, specializations are developed through experience.
3 Engineering and Technology Labour Market Study, Final Report, Engineers Canada and the Canadian Council of Technicians and Technology, May, 2009. See Page 1 and Page 8 http://etlms.engineerscanada.ca/e/pub_pr.cfm
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6. Standard economic statistics which measure supply and demand in the engineering labour market attach too little weight to experience and to specialized skills and too much weight to generic qualifications. In this report, therefore, it is common for our analysis to show a balance between supply and demand (a 3 ranking) for the four large (and generic fields), namely, civil, electrical, mechanical and chemical, but shortages ( a 4 ranking) in the more specialized fields, e.g., petroleum engineers. 7. The consulting sector which employs a large share of professional engineers plays a critical role in meeting industrys needs for specialized skills and developing those skills within the profession. Consulting also promotes the mobility of these skills across regions and industries. 8. Within the consulting sector, the internationalization of engineering services has taken on increased importance. This was described in the report Canadas Consulting Engineering Sector in the International Economy that was part of the Engineering and Technology Labour Market Study.4 A central finding of that study was that the internationalization of engineering services increased the premium on specialized skills. 9. This report points to three challenges for the engineering profession. The first, and most important, is addressing the graduation-to-work transition, or more specifically, the chronic and serious under-supply of junior engineer jobs which are also integral to the internship or EIT programs of the provincial and territorial associations. This situation sets up a contradiction between the interests of each firm and the engineering industry as a whole. It is rational business strategy for an individual employer to require 5-10 years experience for new hires, but at the system level, this business strategy leads to the serious problems that now confront the profession and employers as a whole. There are no simple solutions to the graduation-to-work transition challenge, but addressing this challenge must now become a priority for the profession. This may have implications for industry/profession relations, government/profession relations, the structuring of university programs, and the regulation of professional practices. The second challenge is to better understand the business and specialized skill needs of industry and reflect those needs in traditional undergraduate and graduate programs, in combined MBA-engineering programs, in engineering management programs, and in continuing professional development programs. The profession may also need to consider options for credentialing specialized skills, as has been done in other professions, e.g., law.
4 See, http://etlms.engineerscanada.ca/media/Canada's%20Consulting%20Engineering%20Sector%20in%20the% 20International%20Economy1.pdf
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The third challenge is to facilitate the movement of experienced engineers from declining sectors when they have lost their jobs into growing sectors. Engineers who have lost their jobs owing economic restructuring have considerable business experience, but are likely to lack some of the specialized skills that are needed by growing sectors. Improvements to the next update might add insight in these areas and better meet user needs. Changes might include; Added market details that track more specializations and new disciplines including; o Engineering Managers Extended consultations with stakeholders and o The addition of rankings that track conditions for experienced engineers based on stakeholder input. Added details tracking licensing and registrations in the Provincial Associations including; o Engineer in training programs and other internships o Permanent immigrants with engineering qualifications and temporary foreign workers securing permanent status Added details linking employment to engineering consulting including improved links from key industry drivers, imports and exports of engineering services.
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1. BackgroundandIntroduction
EngineersCanadainitiatedasystemfortrackinglabourmarketsaspartoftheEngineeringand TechnologyLabourMarketStudyin2008.5This2010versionofEngineeringLabourMarket Conditionsupdatesthe2008work;addingdetail,drawingonanewmacroeconomicscenario, andincludinginputfromaroundofindustryconsultations. Theanalysiscoverstwentysixseparateengineeringlabourmarketsandthesearesetoutin Exhibit#1below.Marketswereselectedbasedontheavailabilityofreliabledataandindustry input6.Wherepossibletheanalysisaccountsforspecializationandthepotentialforengineers tomoveacrossdisciplinesastheyaccumulateknowledgeandexperience.Statisticsthatare usedasabasisformarketanalysisoftendonotmeasurethesecircumstances.Thecommentary oneachmarketassessmenthighlightswhereconditionsmaybeimpactedbyspecializations, mobilityandtheexperienceoftheworkforce. Thesystemisdesignedtoprovideanassessmentoflabourmarketsthatwouldmeettheneeds ofseveralindustrystakeholdersincluding: Employersandrecruiters Students,immigrantsandotherpotentialentrants Managersofpostsecondaryprograms Federalandprovincialgovernmentofficialsmanagingimmigrationandotherlabour marketprograms Provincialengineeringassociations
See http://etlms.engineerscanada.ca/e/ Each market assessment requires a reliable statistical foundation that measures the number of engineers at work. At a minimum these measures are needed for one starting point but a reliable time series is also important. The Statistics Canada 2006 Census is the critical starting point. Census results are suppressed or marked as unreliable for many markets. The Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey is the main source for annual trends. Weakness in the reliability of this data further limits the scope of this work.
6
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Exhibit1Coverage,OccupationsandRegions
Occupation by Region Engineers Canada Atlantic Quebec Ontario Manitoba SK Alberta BC
Occupation 1. Civil engineers 2. Mechanical engineers 3. Electrical & Electronics engineers Mech, Elec, & Chem Engineers
4. Chemical engineers 5. Petroleum engineers 6. Industrial & Manufacturing engineers 7. Aerospace engineers 8. Computer engineers Other Engineers Other Engineers

9. Other Engineers including metallurgical and materials, mining & geological engineers
Other Engineers
Total Engineers
Source: Prism Economics & Analysis
= Labour Market Tracking

= Sum of Individual Labour Markets
Other Occupations (residual) Mechanical, electrical & electronic, & chemical grouped
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Thesystemassesseslabourmarketsbasedonhistoricaldataandfuturescenariosforseveral measures,including: Output,investmentandemploymentforengineeringintensiveprovincialindustries: o Manufacturing o Construction o Professional,ScientificandManagerialServices o Utilities o Government o PrimaryIndustries o Otherindustries Employmentinengineeringoccupations GraduatesfromCanadianEngineeringAccreditationBoard(CEAB)programs Immigration(permanentandtemporaryforeignworkers)byengineeringoccupations Retirementandmortalityinengineeringoccupations Theprovincialmeasuresarecombinedintoemploymentdriversthatreflectthedistributionof engineersacrossindustries.Eachdriverisbasedonprovincialeconomicconditionsacrossa scenariofrom2010to2018.Thesedriversareprovidedfromeconomicforecastspreparedby theCentreforSpatialEconomics.7 Theannualchangeinemploymentisaddedtoretirementsandmortality(replacement demands)toestimatedchanginglabourrequirements.Theseestimatesarecomparedto increasesinlaboursupplythroughgraduatesfrompostsecondaryprogramsandimmigration. Exhibit#2summarizestheestimateofExcessSupply,akeylabourmarketmeasure.
See the C4SE Provincial Economics Forecast January 2010, Centre for Spatial Economics
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Exhibit2
Engineering Labour Market Tracking System, Summary of Main Components
19
Measures,then,cominglemanyfactorsinthecalculationofexcesssupplyandmarket assessments.Rankingsareinterpretedcarefullytoreflectthesedifferences. Rankingsdescribearangeoffivemarketconditions Thesemeasuresarecombinedintoasummaryrankingthroughaweightedaverageof: ExcessSupplyasa%ofEmployment Retirementandmortalityasa%oftheLabourForce Annual%changeinemployment Industryinput Rankingsaresetonascalefrom1to5with1representingaveryweakmarketand5tight markets.Fromtheperspectiveofemployerseachmarketmightbedescribedasfollows:
Rankings & Description
1 2
Significantexcessofsupplyoverdemand
No difficulty in recruiting qualified engineering staff with 0-5 years or 5-10 years of Canadian experience at established compensation norms within the local labour market.
Excessofsupplyoverdemand
No difficulty in recruiting qualified engineering staff with 0-5 years or with 5-10 years of Canadian experience at established compensation norms within the local or regional labour market. The geographic range of recruiting and the range of acceptable qualifications is broader than in 1
Moderate supply pressures
Difficulty in recruiting qualified engineering staff with more than 5 years of Canadian experience, with industry or technology-specific skills, and with appropriate non-technical skills. The time required to fill these positions is typically longer than historic norms. Vacancies sometimes need to be re-posted. Employers actively solicit applications from outside the local and regional labour market and reimburse applicants for travel expenses related to interviews, etc. Recruiting engineering staff with 05 years of Canadian experience poses fewer challenges.
Significantsupplypressures
Difficulty across the board in recruiting qualified engineering staff in the local and regional labour market. It is normal practice to actively solicit applications from outside the local and regional labour market and to reimburse applicants for travel expenses related to interviews. Employers are generally obliged to improve offered terms of compensation and to assist with re-location costs. Recruitment difficulties lead many employers to increase their use of third-party recruiters and to increase their outsourcing of engineering and technology work to consultancies or staff the assignment with engineering workers from another region. There is a significant increase in the risk of project delays and compensation-driven cost escalations.
Supplyconstraints
Systemic difficulty in recruiting qualified engineering staff. International recruiting is common among large employers. There is widespread perception that the consulting sector is working at full capacity and that there is little, if any, remaining scope to outsource engineering and technology work to qualified consultancies with a known track record. ThesefiverankingsareusedtocharacterizeengineeringlabourmarketsacrossCanadainthe nextsection.Marketrankingshavebeenpreparedforeachyearfrom2009to2018.
20
Readerswhoareinterestedinmoredetailsoneachcomponentofthemarketassessmentare referredtotheAppendices.AppendixAincludesadescriptionoftheCenterforSpatial Economic,January2010Provincialforecaststhatserveasthebasisfortheindustrydetailand engineeringemploymentdrivers.
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2. LabourMarketAssessments
Thissectionofthereportdescribesconditionsforthetwentysixlabourmarketssetoutin Exhibit#1. Aninitialsummarydescribestheeconomicanddemographicconditionsintheregion.This isasynopsisoftheCenterforSpatialEconomicsscenariosanddescribestheconditions linkedtotheindustrydriversforemployment. EachsectionbeginswithExhibit1,anaccountingofthenumberofengineersworkinginthe market.Theestimatesofengineersemployedaretakenfromthe2006Censusandfrom analysisfor2009developedbyPrismEconomicsandAnalysis.8Readersareencouragedto considertheseestimatesandcommentonanyothersourcesthatmightbeabasisfor comparison.Theaccuracyoftheseestimatesvariesdependingonthesizeofthemarket. Exhibit2describesemploymenttrendsforeachmarketusingindexnumbersthattrackthe cumulativechangebeginningin2007andrunningto2018.Datafrom2007to2009are adjustedtoreflectthehistoricaldatafromtheLabourForceSurvey.Estimatesfrom2010to 2018arederivedfromdriverscalculatedfromtheCenterforSpatialEconomicsforecasts. Graphicsforeachmarketshowthemajordriversandcommentsindicatehowchanging industryconditionsareimpactingemployment.Theannualchangeinemployment,tracked ineachgraphic,isakeymeasureoflabourrequirements. Exhibit3foreachmarketsetsouttherecenthistoryandexpectedtrendsforthreekey measures. a. ThenumberofgraduatesfromCEABEngineeringprograms.Datafrom EngineersCanadaprovidesthehistoryandestimatesfrom2009to2018are basedonthepatternofregistrations.Theanalysisassumesthatregistrations andtheassociatedgraduationswillremainconstantatthelevelsreportedfor 2008.Industrystakeholdershaveobservedthataproportionofgraduatesdo notentertheworkforce.Anadjustmentreflectingthistrendreducesthe numberofgraduatesenteringtheworkforceby30%. b. ThereportednumberofengineersarrivinginthemarketfromoutsideCanada. Thisincludesbothpermanentimmigrantsandtemporaryforeignworkers.9The analysisassumesthatthenumberofarrivalsin2008remainsconstantfrom 2009to2018.Industrystakeholdersobservethattherearedelaysinintegrating permanentimmigrantsandsomearenotabletofindworkasengineers.An
8 Prism Economics and Analysis has reviewed different estimates of employment, the labour force and unemployment for engineers in as many markets as possible. Sources include the 2006 Census and the Labour Force Survey at Statistics Canada. Where reliability is a concern these measures have been adjusted. 9 Estimates of immigration are adjusted in the case of temporary foreign workers. In theory, these workers are limited to two years of work in Canada. But experience shows that various programs are encouraging 9 Estimates of immigration are adjusted in the case of temporary foreign workers. In theory, these workers are limited to two years of work in Canada. But experience shows that various programs are encouraging these workers to remain. It is assumed that half of arriving temporary foreign workers leave after two years and half remain.
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adjustmentreducesthenumberofpermanentimmigrantsenteringthe workforceby15%. c. Thenumberofengineerspermanentlyleavingtheworkforceincluding retirementandmortality.Theseestimatesbeginwiththe2008ageprofileof eachgroupage50andoverandcalculatethenumberofexitsbyapplying mortalityratesandchangesinparticipationratesineachyearfrom2009to 2018.Theresultingestimatesindicatethenumberofengineersneededto sustainthelabourforceatthestartinglevelin2008. Exhibit4describesexcesssupplyineachyear.Thismeasureissimilartothechangein unemploymentandboththenumberandthepercentofemployedareincluded.Asexcess supplyrisesmarketsaregrowingweaker,recruitingwillbeeasierandjobsearchmoredifficult. Theseexhibitsprovidealltheinformationincludedintherankingsthatarereportedattheend ofeachsection.Eachannualrankingcombinesthemeasuresofexcesssupply,thechangein employmentandtheproportionoftheworkforceretiringordying.
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ACanada
TheEconomy Thissectionintroducesnationalresultsformajorengineeringlabourmarketsfrom2009to 2018.Labourmarketconditionsforengineeringoccupationswilldependonkeyeconomic backgroundfactors.Abriefsummaryofexpectedconditionsispresentedhereandacomplete writeupoftheCenterforSpatialEconomicsJanuary,2010Provincialforecastisattachedin AppendixA. Therecessionisoverandaslowrecoveryhasstarted.RecoveryisstrongestinAsiaandweakest inEurope.Canadasrecoveryfromrecessionandlongtermgrowthpotentialdependsonexport marketsanddomesticproductioncapacity.Duringarecoveryperiodfrom2010to2012both thesefactorswillencourageeconomicgrowth. Governmentstimulus,introducedinearly2009inmosteconomies,hashelpedtocutthe recessionshortandspurrecovery.Stimulusspendingoninfrastructureprojectsandin engineeringrelatedconstructioncontinuesin2010andearly2011.Accelerateddesignand constructionwillhelpsomeengineeringoccupationsintheshortterm.Butgovernmentdeficits leavelargedebtburdensthatwillrequirelongtermrestraintingovernmentspendingortax increases. Commoditypricesriseastheworldeconomyimproves.Canadasresourceindustriesmay benefit,especiallyfromopportunitiesinAsia.Buthighercommoditypricesalsocreateupward pressureoninflation.Inresponse,interestrateswillriseandactasafurtherrestraintonthe economy. CanadianandUSeconomicgrowthrisestonear3%abovetheirpotentialduringthe recoveryperiodin2010and2011.Growthslowslatertotrendratesnear2%.Traditional CanadianexportmarketsintheUnitedStatesareconstrainedbydemographicandgovernment financefactors.Canadianeconomicgrowthisincreasinglyconstrainedbylimiteddomestic labourforcegrowth.Risingimmigrationisassumedacrosstheforecastscenario.Government policieswillpromotethisandindustryeffortstorecruitandretainnonCanadianworkerswillbe essentialtosustaininggrowth. Undertheseconditionsemploymentgrowthwillgenerallybefarbelowhistoricpatterns.Atthe sametimelabourmarketswilltendtobetighterthaninthepast.Unemploymentwillbewell belowhistoricallevelsandrecruitingwillbeanongoingchallenge.Theimpactofthese structuraldemographicsdependsontheageprofileofeachoccupationandregion. Thesegeneraleconomicconditionsdriveindividualprovincialindustriesandemployment.Six engineeringintensiveindustriesareidentified. Manufacturing Thishasbeentheweakestsectorforatleastadecadeandthemostvulnerableduringthe recession.Startingfromaverylowbase,therecoverywillbesignificant.Thiswillbeledby investmentsinnewtechnologyandcapacity.Keymanufacturingindustrieswillprosperduring
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thenextdecadebasedonnewproductsanddesigns.However,therecoverywillnotregainthe pastpeaksofoutputuntil2015andoverallmanufacturingemploymentwillnotreturntoearlier peaklevels. Utilities Investmentinnewutilitycapacity,includingresourcebasedprojects,hasbeenaleadingsource ofactivityforthepastdecadeandisexpectedtoaccelerateintheforecastperiod.New capacitywillimproveproductivitysothatoverallemploymentgainswillbelimited.Introducing majornewconstructionprojectsandtechnologieswilladdjobsforengineers. GovernmentServices Governmentandinstitutionalinvestmentshavebeenaleadingsourceofactivityoverthepast decadeandthismomentumcarriesonto2011basedonfiscalstimulusprograms.But investmentfadesasthestimulusprojectsendandfiscalrestraintsetsin.Employment opportunitiesingovernmentwillbelimitedoverthescenario. Construction Thissectorledtheeconomyforthepastdecadeandwillbenefitfromthestimulusto infrastructureduring2010.Constructionactivitywillslowdown;laggingbehindothersectors from2012to2018.Whileemploymentgrowthwillbeslower,therearemanyindustrial, institutionalandutilityprojectsplannedandimportantopportunitiesareexpected. Professional,ScientificandManagementServices Thissectorisamajoremployerforengineersandincludesengineeringconsulting.Activity tracksthegeneraleconomictrends.Prospectsforconsultingfirms,includingopportunitiesand challengesinothercountries,maynotbefullyreflectedinthedrivers. PrimaryIndustries Thissectorcombinesthediversefortunesofmining,agriculture,forestry,fishingandother industries.Investmentandoutputhavelaggedbehindthegeneraleconomyandthisis projectedtocontinue.Specificopportunitiesassociatedwithindividualresources(e.g.potash, uranium,gold,etc.)maynotbereflectedinthegeneraltrendsforthesedrivers. OtherIndustries Thesedriversrepresenttherestoftheeconomyandgrowthtracksthegeneraleconomic trends.Economicexpansionwillbeheldbackacrossthecomingdecadebythelowergrowthin populationandthelabourforce. NationalEngineeringLabourMarkets Employmentgrowthineachofthenineengineeringoccupationsisakeydriveroflabour markets.TheEngineeringCanadasystemstartswithemploymentestimatestakenfromthe 2006CensusandthenadjuststheseusingthemonthlyLabourForceSurveytotrack employmentduringtheyearsafterthecensus.TheLabourForceSurveyisnotareliablesource forsmallermarkets.Stakeholdersareencouragedtoconsidertheemploymentestimates reportedinExhibitA.Thesevaluesareanimportantstartingpointforthemarketassessments tofollow.
25
ExhibitAEmploymentHistoryCanada
Labour Market Civil engineers Mechanical engineers Electrical and electronics Chemical Industrial and Manufacturing Petroleum Aerospace Computer All Other Total, All Engineers 2006c (Census) 44680 38015 34340 9755 20220 9830 5740 26760 10095 199435 2009e (Estimated Trend) 45029 38612 35325 9528 20321 11900 4992 25676 8412 199795
Source: Statistics Canada, Prism Economics and Analysis
KeyPoints:
Theseestimatesarebasedonhouseholdsurveyswhereindividualsidentifytheir occupation.Thereisnoverificationofcredentialsorqualifications. Civil,mechanicalandelectricalengineeringaccountforoverhalfofemployment. Theallothercategoryincludesmetallurgicalandmaterials,mining,geologicalandother engineers.
26
CivilEngineersCanada ExhibitA1.1CivilEngineers,Canada
130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80
IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrial Growth CivilEngineers
Index2007=100
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AllCivilEngineers GovernmentServices
Source:StatisticsCanada,C4SE,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
Professional,Scientific,Managerial Construction
KeyPoints: EmploymentofCivilEngineersisprimarilydrivenbyinvestmentandoutputinProfessional, ScientificandManagementServices(includingengineeringconsulting)andConstruction. Joblossesin2009insomeindustrieswerepartlyoffsetbyincreasesintheGovernment Servicessector: o Gainsarerelatedtotheshortterminfrastructureandotherstimulusprograms
Employmenttracksmostcloselywithconstructionandprofessional,scientificand managementservicesthetwolargestsingleemployersofcivilengineers. Civilengineersaremoreconcentratedinprofessional,scientificandmanagement(including engineeringconsulting)servicesthanotheroccupations.Thismightprotectthemfrom cyclicalvariationsinemployment. Cumulativeemploymentgrowthfrom2009to2018isbelowtheaverageforallengineers.
27
ExhibitA1.2CivilEngineers,Canada
Demographic Supply Side Measures Civil engineers Graduates Entering the Labour Force* Immigrants** Replacement Demand (#)*** Replacement (% of Trend Employment)*** 2007 1184 1041 741 2.5 2008 1209 1043 1122 2.1 2009 1229 1059 1018 2.1 2010 2018
(Annual Average)
1315 997 1085 2.5
Source:statisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis *Equals70%ofgraduatesfromCEABprograms **Includestemporaryforeignworkersandpermanentimmigrants ***Replacementdemand=retirementandmortality
KeyPoints: o o o Additionstoenrolmentsinpostsecondaryprogramshavegraduallyraised graduationsandthesewillrisetoapeakin2012 Overthesameperiodthenumberofpermanentimmigrantshasdeclinedandthisis offsetbyamodestgainintemporaryforeignworkers. Theageprofileforthisoccupationisolderthantheaverageforallengineers.
28
ExhibitA1.3CivilEngineers,Canada
ExcessSupply CanadaCivilEngineers
5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1000 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% Percent 2018
ExcessSupply
ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment(2yearaverage)
Source:statisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
KeyPoints: Onbalanceadditionstotheworkforcefallshortoflabourrequirementsandexcesssupply fallsacrossthescenario. Lowexcesssupplyisrelatedtotheolderageprofile,retirementsandrelativelylow registrationsinpostsecondaryprogramscomparedtootherdisciplines. Thereislittlecyclicalvariationafter2010andthismaybelinkedtotrendsinprofessional, scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices)activity. Selfemploymentinconsultingandprofessional,scientificandmanagementservices (includingengineeringconsultingservices)mayoffertemporaryworkforthisgroupinweak markets.
ExhibitA1.4CivilEngineersCanada
Labour Market Rankings Civil engineers
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
KeyPoints: Lowexcesssupplyandtheolderageprofilecontributetohighrankingslaterinthe scenario.

29
MechanicalEngineersCanada
ExhibitA2.1MechanicalEngineers,Canada
IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrial Growth MechanicalEngineers

140 130 Index2007=100 120 110 100 90 80 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AllMechanicalEngineers Professional,Scientific,Managerial
Manufacturing Utilities
KeyPoints: EmploymentofMechanicalEngineersisprimarilydrivenbyoutput,investmentand employmentinprofessional,scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineering consultingservices),manufacturingandutilitiesindustries. MechanicalEngineershavethegreatestconcentrationinmanufacturingandaremore vulnerabletotherecessionaswellasmorelikelytobenefitfromtherecovery. Cyclicaljoblossesin2009mayhavebeenpartlyoffsetbyselfemploymentinconsultingand theprofessional,scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineeringconsulting services)industry.
30
Demographic Supply Side Measures - Mechanical engineers Graduates Entering the Labour Force* Immigrants** Replacement Demand (#)*** Replacement (% of Trend Employment)***
2007 1859 1406 569 2.2
2008 2063 1117 814 1.8
2009 1811 1069 739 1.8
2010 2018
(Annual Average)
2036 1066 814 2.2
Source:StatisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis *Equals70%ofgraduatesfromCEABprograms **Includestemporaryforeignworkersandpermanentimmigrants ***Replacementdemand=retirementandmortality
KeyPoints: EnrolmentsinCEABprogramshaveincreasedsteadilyacrossthepastdecadeand graduationswillreachapeakin2012. Permanentimmigrationhasdeclinedsteadilyfallingby75%to2008. Recentincreasesintemporaryforeignworkershaveonlypartiallyoffsetlossesto permanentimmigration. Canadiangraduatesfrompostsecondaryprogramsarethelargestsourceofentrantstothe workforce. Theageprofileformechanicalengineersisclosetotheaverageforallengineers.
31
ExcessSupply CanadaMechanicalEngineers
4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment(2yearaverage)
8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%
Source:StatisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
KeyPoints:
Excesssupplyisstableandconsistentwithbalancedmarkets. Supplythroughbothimmigrationandpostsecondaryprogramsareconsistentlyaheadof labourrequirements.
Labour Market Rankings Mechanical engineers
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Percent 2018
KeyPoints: Marketstightenbrieflyastherecoveryinmanufacturingreachesapeakin2012. Retirementswillcreatechallengesrecruitingexperiencedengineerslaterinthescenario.
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ElectricalandElectronicsEngineersCanada
ExhibitA3.1ElectricalandElectronicsEngineers,Canada
IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrialGrowth ElectricalEngineers
120 115
Index2007=100
110 105 100 95 90 85 80

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AllElectricalandElectronicsEngineers Utilities Manufacturing Professional,Scientific,Managerial
KeyPoints: EmploymentofElectricalEngineersisdrivenprimarilybyinvestmentandemploymentin utilities,professional,scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineeringconsulting services)andmanufacturingindustries. Currenteconomicconditionspullemploymentindifferentdirectionswithmanufacturing reducingandutilityinvestmentincreasingopportunities. Utilityrelatedactivitypeaksin2014;noadditionalemploymentisapparentlaterinthe scenario. Longtermtrendssuggestgrowthbelowaverageforallengineers.
33
Demographic Supply Side Measures - Electrical and Electronics Graduates Entering the Labour Force* Immigrants** Replacement Demand (#)*** Replacement (% of Trend Employment)***
2007 1678 1501 710 2.1
2008 1656 730 575 1.6
2009 1436 701 621 1.6
2010 2018
(Annual Average)
1587 988 723 2.1
KeyPoints: Enrolmenttrendsandassociatedgraduatesfrompostsecondaryprogramshavebeenflat withonlymoderatechangesacrossthelastdecade. Permanentimmigrationhasdeclinedacrossthedecadeandthearrivaloftemporaryforeign workershasalsodeclined. Theageprofileforelectricalengineersisclosetotheaverage.
34
ExcessSupply CanadaElectricalandElectronicsEngineers
4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment(2yearaverage) 0% 2% 4% 6% Percent 8%
KeyPoints: Limitedemploymentgrowthcombineswithcurrenttrendsinimmigrationandpost secondaryenrolmentstosustainnormallevelsofexcesssupply.

Labour Market Rankings Electrical and Electronics
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
KeyPoints: Limitedemploymentgrowthcombineswithsupplysidetrendstoleavelabourmarkets inbalanceastherecoveryunfolds. Retirementslaterinthescenariowilladdtolabourrequirementsandrecruiting experiencedengineerswillbeachallenge.
35
ChemicalEngineersCanada
ExhibitA4.1ChemicalEngineers,Canada
IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrialGrowth ChemicalEngineers
115 110
Index2007=100
105 100 95 90 85 80
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 AllChemicalEngineers Professional,Scientific,Managerial Manufacturing
KeyPoints: EmploymentofChemicalEngineersisdrivenbyemploymentinprofessional,scientificand managementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices)andmanufacturing industries. Declinesin2009wereweigheddownbyasharpdeclineinmanufacturing. Longtermprospectsarelimitedbyopportunitiesinmanufacturing.
36
Demographic Supply Side Measures - Chemical Graduates Entering the Labour Force* Immigrants** Replacement Demand (#)*** Replacement (% of Trend Employment)***
2007 642 448 142 2.1
2008 721 455 187 1.7
2009 659 471 173 1.7
2010 2018
(Annual Average)
721 434 191 2.0
KeyPoints: Trendsinenrolmentandgraduationshavebeencyclicalbutonarisingtrend.Graduations reachedapeakin2008butwilldeclinein2009and2010.Enrolmentpatternswillcreatea newpeakin2011and2012. Permanentimmigrationhasdeclinedsteadilyacrossthepastdecadeandgainsintemporary foreignworkershavenotreplacedtheselosses. Theageprofileisaverage.
37
ExcessSupply CanadaChemicalEngineers
1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment(2yearaverage) 16% 14% 12% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Percent 2018 10%
KeyPoints: Recessionandweaknessinmanufacturingdriveupexcesssupplyin2009andconditionsare slowtoimprove. Theexpectedincreaseingraduationsin2011and2012willaddtoexcesssupplyandlargely balancelabourrequirementsacrossthescenario.
Labour Market Rankings Chemical
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
KeyPoints: LabourmarketswillbebalancedwithCEABprogramslargelyreplacingimmigrationasthe primarysourceofchemicalengineers. Difficultiesrecruitingexperiencedengineersmaypersistundertheseconditions.
38
IndustrialandManufacturingEngineersCanada
ExhibitA5.1IndustrialandManufacturing,Canada
150 140
Index2007=100
IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrialGrowth IndustrialEngineers
130 120 110 100 90 80

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 AllIndustrialandManufacturingEngineers Manufacturing Professional,Scientific,Managerial
KeyPoints: Employmentopportunitiesaredrivenprimarilybyinvestmentandoutputinthe manufacturingindustry. Sharpdeclineinmanufacturingcushionedsomewhatbyprofessional,scientificand managementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices)sector. Recoveryinmanufacturingisrelatedtoinvestmentinnewtechnologiesandengineerswill playakeypartinthis.
39
Demographic Supply Side Measures - Industrial and Manufacturing Graduates Entering the Labour Force* Immigrants** Replacement Demand (#)*** Replacement (% of Trend Employment)***
2007 365 586 314 1.9
2008 306 450 251 1.3
2009 311 440 278 1.3
2010 2018
(Annual Average)
300 472 390 1.9
KeyPoints:
Theworkforceforindustrialandmanufacturingengineersgrowsasengineersfromother disciplines(e.g.mechanicalandchemical)findworkandgainexperienceinindustry. EnrolmentsandgraduatesfromCEABprogramsarelimitedrelativetothesizeofthe workforce. ImmigrantshaveoutnumberedCanadiangraduatesasentrantsintotheworkplace. Permanentimmigrationhasdeclinedfromapeakin2000whilethenumberoftemporary foreignworkershasbeenmaintained. Immigrationhaskepttheaverageoftheworkforcewellbelowaverage.
40
ExcessSupply CanadaIndustrialandManufacturingEngineers
2000 1500 1000 500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment(2yearaverage) 8% 6% 4% Percent 2017 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
KeyPoints: Therecoveryofthemanufacturingsectorandtherelianceonnewtechnologieswillreduce theexcesssupplyoftheseoccupations.

Labour Market Rankings Industrial and Manufacturing
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2018
KeyPoints: Chroniclabourshortageswillcontinueacrossthescenariogiventhecurrentlevelsof immigrationandpostsecondaryenrolments. Excesssupplyreportedaboveformechanicalandchemicalengineersmayencouragethese groupstoseekworkandshifttheirfocustothismarket.
41
PetroleumEngineersCanada
ExhibitA6.1PetroleumEngineers
IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrialGrowth PetroleumEngineers
125 120 115
Index2007=100
110 105 100 95 90 85 80

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 AllPetroEngineers TotalPrimary Professional,Scientific,Managerial
KeyPoints: EmploymentofPetroleumEngineersisdrivenprimarilybyInvestmentandemploymentin professional,scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices) andprimaryindustries. TheStatisticsCanadaLabourForceSurvey(LFS)reportsextremelystronggrowthbetween 20072009: o o Nationalgainsarenotconsistentwithregionaldata. Analysissuggeststhatestimatesmaynotbereliable.
42
ExhibitA6.2Petroleum
Demographic Supply Side Measures - Petroleum Graduates Entering the Labour Force* Immigrants** Replacement Demand (#)*** Replacement (% of Trend Employment)***
2007 48 108 136 2.0
2008 59 120 274 2.1
2009 52 160 263 2.1
2010 2018
(Annual Average)
69 145 233 2.0
KeyPoints: Thepetroleumengineeringworkforcegrowsasengineersfromotherdisciplines(e.g. mechanicalandchemical)findworkandgainexperienceinindustry. EnrolmentsandgraduatesfromCEABprogramsarelimitedrelativetothesizeofthe workforce. ImmigrationfarexceedstheCanadianpostsecondarysystemasasourceforthisworkforce. Immigration(bothpermanentandtemporary)havefallenfarbelowpeaklevelsandmodest gainsinpostsecondaryenrolmentshavenotkeptpace. Theageprofileforpetroleumengineersisclosetothenationalaverageforallengineers
43
ExcessSupply CanadaPetroleumEngineers
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
KeyPoints: Theworkforceinthisoccupationmayincludemechanical,chemicalandotherengineers whoworkintheindustryandhavedevelopedexpertiseaspetroleumengineers. Measuresofexcesssupplymaynotbereliablebecauseofsuspectemploymentestimates.
Labour Market Rankings Petroleum
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Percent 2018
KeyPoints: Rankingsarelikelynotreliableduetosuspectemploymentestimates. Excesssupplyreportedaboveformechanicalandchemicalengineersmayencouragethese groupstoseekworkandshifttheirfocustothismarket
44
AerospaceEngineersCanada
ExhibitA7.1AerospaceEngineers,Canada
IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrialGrowth AerospaceEngineers
170 160
Index2007=100
150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AllAerospaceEngineers Manufacturing Professional,Scientific,Managerial
KeyPoints: Employmentforaerospaceengineersisdrivenprimarilybyinvestmentandoutputin manufacturingandprofessional,scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineering consultingservices)industries.Themorespecializednatureofthisoccupationmakesbroad indicatorsformanufacturinglessreliable.Strengthintheaerospacesectormightnotbe adequatelyreflectedinthebroadereconomicmeasures. Datafor2009showlittlechangeinemploymentwhilethekeyindustrialdriversdeclined. Prospectsforrecoveryarestrongbutemploymenthasbeenvolatileandonadownward trendforaerospaceengineersforovertenyears. Employmentdoesnotregainpeaklevelsachievedin1997until2013. Themanufacturingrecoveryislinkedtotheadoptionofnewtechnologieswithleadership fromengineers. Thisgrouphasthestrongestoverallemploymentgrowthfornationaloccupations.
45
Demographic Supply Side Measures Aerospace Graduates Entering the Labour Force* Immigrants** Replacement Demand (#)*** Replacement (% of Trend Employment)***
2007 139 75 93 1.8
2008 125 224 73 1.7
2009 115 226 86 1.7
2010 2018
(Annual Average) Deleted: -
122 152 85 1.9
KeyPoints: Immigration(bothpermanentandtemporary)peakedwithemploymentinthelate1990s anddeclineduntil2007: o Abigincreaseisreportedinthearrivaloftemporaryforeignworkersin2008.
EnrolmentsandgraduationfromCanadianpostsecondaryprogramshassteadilyimproved buthasnotyetfilledthegapleftbydecliningimmigration. Highlevelsofimmigrationhelptokeeptheageprofilebelownormal.
46
800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 2007
ExcessSupply CanadaAerospaceEngineers
8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% Percent 2018
2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment(2yearaverage)
KeyPoints: Therecessionseemstohavecausedapauseinemploymentgrowth. Asurgeintemporaryimmigrationhasbalancedmarkets. Halfofthetemporaryforeignworkerswhoarrivedin2008areassumedtoleavethe workforceoverthenearfuture;levelsofpermanentimmigrationandgraduationsarenot sufficienttomeetlabourrequirementsduringtherecoveryphasefrom2010to2013.
Labour Market Rankings Summary Aerospace
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
KeyPoints: Labourmarketswillbetightastheprojectedmanufacturingrecoveryunfolds. Laboursupplybeginstocatchupwithdemandtowardstheendofthescenario.
47
Computer(exceptsoftwareengineers)EngineersCanada
ExhibitA8.1ComputerEngineers(exceptsoftwareengineers),Canada
150 140
Index2007=100
IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrialGrowth ComputerEngineers
130 120 110 100 90 80

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 AllComputerEngineers Professional,Scientific,Managerial Manufacturing
KeyPoints: EmploymentbyComputerEngineersisdrivenprimarilybyinvestmentinprofessional, scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices)industry. Therecessionhasalimitedimpactwithaslightdeclinein2009,thensteadygrowththrough 2018. TheITbubbledroveemploymenttoapeakin20002001andthendeclinedin2003 2004.Growthhasbeensteadysincethen. Overthescenarioemploymentgrowthforcomputerengineersexceedstheaverageforall engineers.
48
ExhibitA8.2ComputerEngineers(exceptsoftwareengineers),Canada
Demographic Supply Side Measures Computer Graduates Entering the Labour Force* Immigrants** Replacement Demand (#)*** Replacement (% of Trend Employment)***
2007 1082 731 138 1.2
2008 964 612 213 0.8
2009 412 694 211 0.8
2010 2018
(Annual Average)
957 688 318 1.2
KeyPoints: Graduatesfromcomputerengineeringprogramsrosetoapeakin2004andhavebeen decliningsincethen. Permanentimmigrationandtemporaryforeignworkershavebeendecliningsince2001. Thegeneralrelianceonimmigrationfornewentrantshaskepttheaverageageofthe workforcewellbelowtheaverageforallengineers.
49
ExhibitA8.3ExhibitA8.2ComputerEngineers(exceptsoftwareengineers),Canada
ExcessSupply CanadaComputerEngineers(exceptsoftwareengineers)
2000 1500 1000 500 0 500 1000 1500 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 6%
KeyPoints: Labourmarketsweretightfrom2005to2007asemploymentrevivedwhilesupply continuedtodeclineinreactiontotheITbust. Employmentweakenedin2008and2009allowingimmigrationandgraduationsto overshoot. Therecoveryinprofessional,scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineering consultingservices)andmanufacturingwillreduceexcesssupplyinthefaceoflow immigrationandgraduations. Labourrequirementsgrowmoreslowlylaterinthescenarioasretirementsarelimitedand employmentgrowthsettlesdowntotrendratesfortheeconomy.
ExhibitA8.4ComputerEngineers(exceptsoftwareengineers)
Labour Market Rankings Computer
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Percent
2018
KeyPoints: Relativelystrongemploymentgrowthisbalancedbylimitedreplacementdemandasthe workforceisquiteyoung. Thereisariskofrecruitingdifficultiesinspecializedareas. Overallmarketsbalanceoncetherecoveryhassettledintotrendratesofgrowthlaterinthe scenario.
50
AllOtherEngineersCanada
ExhibitA9.1AllOtherEngineers,Canada
IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrialGrowth All OtherEngineers

150 140 Index2007=100 130 120 110 100 90 80 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
OtherEngineers Manufacturing
Professional,Scientific,Managerial GovernmentServices
KeyPoints: Thiscategoryincludesmining,geological,metallurgicalandmaterialsandotherengineers. Employmentinallotherengineeringoccupationsisdrivenprimarilybyinvestmentin manufacturing,governmentservicesandprofessional,scientificandmanagementservices (includingengineeringconsultingservices)industries. Sharpdeclinein2009,resumesgrowthinlinewithinvestmentinprofessional,scientificand managementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices)industry. Employmentinthisoccupationlastreachedapeakintheearly1990sandthislevelwasonly passedin2006. Overallgrowthacrossthescenarioforthisgroupisequaltotheaverageforallengineering occupations.
51
Demographic Supply Side Measures - All Other Graduates Entering the Labour Force* Immigrants** Replacement Demand (#)*** Replacement (% of Trend Employment)***
2007 1019 550 449 2.4
2008 1031 555 168 1.7
2009 1009 574 162 1.7
2010 2018
(Annual Average)
1147 530 208 2.4
KeyPoints: GraduatesfromCanadianpostsecondaryprogramstraditionallyexceedimmigrationasa sourceofentrants. Immigration(mostlypermanent)peakedin2001,laterthanotherengineeringgroups,and hasbeendecliningsince. Decliningimmigrationsince2001hasexceededthegainingraduations;leavingadropinthe availableworkforce. Relianceonthedomesticworkforceisassociatedwithanolderageprofile.
52
3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 500 1000 2007
ExcessSupply CanadaOtherEngineers
60% 50% 40% Percent 2018 30% 20% 10% 0% 10% 20%
2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment(2yearaverage)
Source:statisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
KeyPoints: Excesssupplyincreasedin2008and2009asemploymentfellandsupplyremainedlargely unchanged. Strongemploymentrecoveryfrom2010to2012iscoveredbyatemporarygainin graduations. Thiscategorycontainsseveraldistinctoccupationsandratesofexcesssupplyforindividual occupationsmaydifferwidelyfromtheoverallresult.
Labour Market Rankings All Other
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
KeyPoints: Sustainedhigherlevelsofgraduationsandtrendgrowthinemploymentcombineto balancemarkets.
53
Theageprofilefortheseoccupationsishigherthanaverageforengineersandthiswillmake recruitingforexperiencedengineersmoredifficult. Rankingsforalltheseoccupationstogethermayconcealimportantmarketdifferences amongindividualgroups.
54
TotalEngineersCanada
ExhibitA10.1TotalEngineers,Canada
IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrialGrowth TotalEngineers
140 130 Index2007=100 120 110 100 90 80 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AllEngineers Manufacturing
Professional,Scientific,Managerial OtherIndustries
KeyPoints: Averageannualgrowthinengineeringemploymentfrom2010to2018is1.5%,abovethe averagegrowthoftotalCanadianemployment. ThissignalsamoderateincreaseintheproportionofengineersintheCanadianworkforce andthisisdue,inthescenario,totherelativelystronggrowthinengineeringintensive industries. Themajordriversforengineeringemploymentareinvestmentandoutputingovernment, manufacturingandtheprofessional,scientificandmanagementservices(including engineeringconsultingservices)industries. Ledbyregulargainsinthebigthreeoccupations(civil,mechanicalandelectrical)andrecent additionsofcomputerengineers,employmentreachedanalltimehighin2008. Thedeclinein2009waslinkedtotherecessionandgrowthresumesinlinewithinvestment inprofessional,scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineeringconsulting services)industryin2010. Thestrongestcyclicalgrowthinemploymentisrelatedtotheexpectedrecoveryin manufacturing.Thisrecovery:
55
Drivesemploymentandtightensmarketsforindustrialandmanufacturing engineersandaerospace,but employmentlevelsonlyslowlyregainpeaklevelsachievedinthelate1990s orinthemiddleofthisdecade.
Whereemploymentgrowthissustainedabovethetrendgrowthintheeconomy,itis associatedwiththeadaptationofnewtechnologies(e.g.manufacturingandcomputer engineering)ortheadditionofmajorprojectactivity(e.g.utilityconstruction).
56
Demographic Supply Side Measures - Total Engineers Graduates Entering the Labour Force* Immigrants** Replacement Demand (#)*** Replacement (% of Trend Employment)***
2007 8016 6447 3196 2.0
2008 8133 5306 3450 1.6
2009 7034 5395 3358 1.6
2010 2018
(Annual Average)
8254 5472 4004 2.1
KeyPoints: Thesteadydeclineinpermanentimmigrationhasbeenpartlyoffsetbytemporaryforeign workersbuttheoverallcontributionofnonCanadianstotheworkforcehasdeclined. SteadyoverallgrowthingraduationsfromCEABprogramshasovertakenimmigrationand nowcontributesthemajorityofnewengineers. Over2.0%oftheworkforcewillretire;leaveengineeringoccupationsacrossthescenario. Replacingtheselosseswithnewgraduateswillaggravatethecurrentdifficultiesrecruiting experiencedengineersinmostmarkets.
57
20000
ExcessSupply CanadaTotalEngineers
8% 7%
15000
6% Percent 2018 5%
10000
4% 3%
5000
2% 1%
0 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment
0%
KeyPoints: Therecessiontemporarilyraisedexcesssupplybutrecoveryisstrongandmorenormal balanceisrestoredin2010.
Labour Market Rankings Total Engineers
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
KeyPoints: Therankingsystemprojectsbalancedmarketsoncethejoblossesoftherecessionhave passed. Asthenumberofretirementsgrowslaterinthescenario,marketswillbetighterand recruitingmoredifficultforexperiencedengineers.
58
ExhibitA11LabourMarketRankingsSummary,Canada
Labour Market Rankings Summary Civil engineers Mechanical engineers Electrical and electronics Chemical Industrial and Manufacturing Petroleum Aerospace Computer All Other Total, All Engineers
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2 2 2 2 2 4 3 2 2 2
3 3 3 3 4 3 4 2 2 3
3 3 3 2 4 3 4 2 2 3
4 4 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 4
4 3 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 3
4 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 2 3
4 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3
4 4 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 3
4 4 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 4
4 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 4
KeyPoints: Therecessionuniformlyweakenedmarketsin2009. Recoverytightensmarketsdrivenbymanufacturing;theavailableworkforceinthe relatedoccupationswasreducedbylargedeclinesinpermanentimmigration. Datareliabilityisaconcernforsomesmallermarketsinparticularforpetroleum engineers. Levelsofimmigrationandgraduationestablishedinthe20082009periodarelikely sufficienttobalancemarketsacrossthecomingdecade. Overallbalanceconcealsthepossibleexcessoflaboursupplyoverrequirementsfor specificoccupationsandregions.
59
BBritishColumbia
TheEconomy
Thissectionintroducesprovincialresultsformajorengineeringlabourmarketsfrom2009to 2018.Labourmarketconditionsforengineeringoccupationswilldependonkeyeconomic backgroundfactors.Abriefsummaryofexpectedconditionsispresentedhereandacomplete writeupoftheCenterforSpatialEconomicsJanuary,2010Provincialforecastisattachedin AppendixA. BritishColumbia,alongwithAlberta,experiencedthemostsevererecessionwithrealoutput dropping2.6%in2009.ButrecoveryisalsostrongerthanelsewhereinCanada,withgrowthof 3.2%in2010.TheBCeconomyissensitivetotheU.S.housingcyclebutalsoclosetothestrong recoveryinAsia.GovernmentstimulusinvestmentsandtheOlympicsareimportantspecial eventshelpingtherecoveryprocess. OverthemediumtermtheBCeconomydoesrelativelywellwithstrongerpopulationgrowth relatedtoimmigrationandgainsinproductivity.Nonresidentialconstructionisexpectedtodo wellin2010and2011asgovernmentstimulusprogramscombinewithresourcesandutility projects.Mininginvestmentandoutputareanongoingsourceofstrengthrightthroughto 2015.Manufacturingactivityisexpectedtorecoverwellandgrowfasterthantheoverall economy.However,manufacturingisrecoveringfromamajordownturnandonlygradually returnstopastpeaklevelsofoutputandemployment. TheoverallProvinciallabourmarketweakenednotablyin2009asunemploymentrosefrom 4.5%to7.5%.Recoveryaddsbackthelostjobsandreducesunemploymenttorecordlowlevels by2013.LaterinthescenarioemploymentforalloccupationsinBCgrowsatjust1%acrossthe scenarioandthisgrowthincreaseslabourrequirementsfasterthananyadditionstothelabour force.Theresultisdecliningunemploymentratesandgenerallytightlabourmarkets.Strong immigrationisakeycontributiontothelongtermcapacityoftheeconomytoexpand. StatisticsCanadadataforengineeringemploymentisnotreliableforindividualoccupationsand thelabourmarketassessmentislimitedtoallengineers.The2006Census,outlinedinExhibitB, reports22,500engineersinBCandtheLabourForceSurveyindicatesthatemploymenthas declinedfromthatpeakwithlossesin2009.
ExhibitBBritishColumbia
Labour Market Total, All Engineers
2006c (Census) 22560
2009e (Estimated Trend) 18037
KeyPoints: WideannualvariationsintheLabourForceSurveyestimatesofengineeringemployment seemunreliable. o Thisisespeciallytrueofbiglossesin2009.
60
TotalEngineersBritishColumbia
ExhibitB1.1TotalEngineers,BC
130 120 Index2007=100 110 100 90 80 70 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AllEngineers Professional,Scientific,Managerial
Manufacturing AllOther
KeyPoints: Averageannualgrowthinengineeringemploymentfrom2010to2018is1.8%,well abovetheaverageforallemploymentinB.C. Alargeproportionofengineersworkintheprofessional,scientificandmanagement services(includingengineeringconsultingservices)sector.Themoderatedeclineinthis industryduring2009mayconceallargerlossesinengineeringconsulting. Lossesinmanufacturingeliminatedengineeringjobsin2008and2009. o Theseslowlyreturntoprerecessionlevelsafter2013.
Keyengineeringintensiveindustriesgrowatslowrateslateinthescenario.These includeprimaryindustries,utilities,constructionandprofessionalandscientificservices (includingconsulting).
61
Demographic Supply Side Measures Total Engineers Graduates Entering the Labour Force* Immigrants** Replacement Demand (#)*** Replacement (% of Trend Employment)*** 2007 729 726 385 2.4 2008 757 647 330 1.9 2009 634 643 371 1.9 2010 2018
(Annual Average)
726 631 410 2.4
KeyPoints: Immigration,alwaysprominentinBC,suppliesthemajorityofnewengineers: o o Permanentimmigrationhasdroppedsignificantlyfrom2000to2008. Therehavebeenmodestgainsintemporaryforeignworkersandthesearetoo smalltooffsetreductionsinpermanentimmigration.
Graduationfrompostsecondaryprogramsincreasedtonewrecordlevelsby2008and therewillbeamodestdownwardadjustmentfrom2009to2011.Currentenrolment trendsaddenoughgradstocompensateforlowerimmigration. TheageprofileofengineersinBCisolderthaninotherprovincesandreplacement demandswillbesignificantlaterinthescenario.
62
ExcessSupply BritishColumbia TotalEngineers

4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 500
2007 2008 2009e2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment
40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5%
KeyPoints:
Excesssupplyincreasedtoveryhighlevelsbetween2007and2009. Thelimitednumberofimmigrantsandgraduates(from2010to2013)willtightenlabour marketsduringtherecovery. Replacementdemandsrelatedtoretirementswilldominatemarketconditionslaterin thescenario. Rankingsmaynotadequatelyreflectchallengesrecruitingengineerswithoverfiveyears ofexperience. Labourrequirementsaredominatedbyretirementswhileadditionstotheworkforce comefromnewgraduatesandtemporaryforeignworkers;creatingapotential mismatchofskillsandexperience.
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Percent
2018
63
CAlberta
TheEconomy Abriefsummaryofexpectedconditionsispresentedhereandacompletewriteupofthe CenterforSpatialEconomicsJanuary,2010ProvincialforecastisattachedinAppendixA. Alberta,likeBritishColumbia,experiencedadeeprecessionin2009butreboundstoabove averagegrowthduringtherecovery.Recoveryisledbygovernmentinvestmentin infrastructureandimprovingresidentialactivity.Longtermgrowthissupportedbyresource development. Albertawillrequirecontinuingimmigrationtofilljobsandfueleconomicexpansion.New immigrants,inturn,bringyoungerworkforceentrantsandhelptofillvacanciesduetothe longertermimpactofrisingretirements. Improvementstoresourceinvestmentandoutputareslowassomeoilandgasprojectsstartup in2010and2011butconventionalresourceproductionisdeclining.By2012oilssands developmenthasreachednewrecordhighlevelsandsustainsthisactivityuntil2018.These gainsinlongtermnonresidentialdevelopmenthelptobalancedeclininggovernment investmentlaterinthescenario. Key,engineeringintensive,industriesrecoverastherecessionends.Manufacturinggrowth exceedsallothersectors,butthesegainsareonlysufficienttoregainlostgroundsothatoutput andemploymentremainbelowpastpeaksuntil2012.Primaryindustriesincludingagriculture andoilandgasproduction,leadtherecoverybutonlytoregainlostgrounduntil2012.Inthe samefashion,theprofessional,scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineering consultingservices)sector,reboundsfromadeeprecessiontoonlyregainlostgroundby2012. StatisticsCanadadataforengineeringoccupationsinAlbertaisreportedinExhibitC.The2006 Censusestimatestotalled34,360withstatisticallyreliabledataavailableforthreeoccupations. EngineersCanadasLabourMarketsystemestimatesthatthemarkethadgrownto35,273by 2009andthisestimateisinlinewithanalysisprovidedbytheAlbertaOccupationalDemand System.
ExhibitCAlberta Labour Market Civil engineers Mechanical, Electrical, Chemical Petroleum All Other Total, All Engineers 2006c
(Census)
2009e
(AODS)
2009e
(Estimated Trend)
7210 12835 8170 6145 34360 20045 18100 8602 9568 36300
6473 13206 9168 6426 35273 19679
64
KeyPoints: TheCensusidentified34,360engineersinAlbertaandemploymenthasexpandedinall occupationsexceptcivil. Theseestimatesaredrawnfromsmallmarketsandarevulnerabletostatisticalerror.
CivilEngineersAlberta
ExhibitC1.1CivilEngineersAlberta
125 120 115 110 Index2007=100 105 100 95 90 85 80
IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrialGrowth CivilEngineers
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Civilengineers_allindustries Construction
Professional,Scientific,Managerial
KeyPoints: Employmentforcivilengineersisprimarilydrivenbyoutputinprofessional,scientificand managementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices),governmentinvestment andconstruction. o Construction,governmentandothersectorsrecoverlostgroundby2011;adding employment.
65
Recoveryininformation,professionalandscientificservicesisslower;delayingthe employmentrecovery.
Loweremploymentin2009andrecoveryin2010and2011istiedtoconstruction. Employmentgrowthacrossthescenarioisslightlyfasterthanforthegeneralengineering workforce.
ExhibitC1.2CivilEngineers,Alberta
Demographic Supply Side Measures Civil Graduates Entering the Labour Force* Immigrants** Replacement Demand (#)* Replacement (% of Trend Employment)*
2007 129 217 94 2.2
2008 153 231 92 1.5
2009 124 207 109 1.7
2010 - 2018 155 190 127 2.2
KeyPoints: ImmigrantsarrivingintheAlbertaworkforcehavebeenincreasingslowlysince2000and outnumbertheincrementalsupplyofnewgraduatesfrompostsecondaryprograms. Civilengineershaveanolderageprofilethantheaverageforallengineers.
66
1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 200
ExcessSupply AlbertaCivilEngineers
12% 10% 8%
Percent
6% 4% 2% 0% 2%
2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment
KeyPoints: Excesssupplyincreasedasenrolmentsandgraduationsslowlyrosefrom2004to2008 and, o Lowerlevelsofpermanentimmigrantshavebeenoffsetbyrisingnumbersof temporaryforeignworkers.
Sustainingthesegainsisnotenoughtomeetgrowinglabourrequirementsduringthe recoveryandexcesssupplyfalls. Annualgainsinemploymentexceeding2%combinewithhighlevelsofretirementto reduceexcesssupplyandtightenmarketsinmostyears. Rankingsmaynotadequatelyreflectchallengesrecruitingengineerswithoverfiveyears ofexperienceinthisandotheroccupations; o Labourrequirementsaredominatedbyretirementswhileadditionstothe workforcecomefromnewgraduatesandtemporaryforeignworkers;creatinga potentialmismatchofskillsandexperience.
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
67
Electrical,MechanicalandChemicalEngineersAlberta
ExhibitC2.1Electrical,MechanicalandChemicalEngineers,Alberta
IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrialGrowth Electrical,MechanicalandChemicalEngineers
130 125 120
Index2007=100
115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 AllMechanical,Electrical,Chemical Professional,Scientific,Managerial Manufacturing UtilitiesandConstruction
KeyPoints: Employmentintheseoccupationsisdrivenbyoutput,investmentandemploymentin professional,scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices), manufacturing,constructionandutilitiesindustries. Shorttermgainsinutilityprojectsandconstructionpushaslowrecovery. Declininglevelsofconventionaloilinvestmentandproductionoffsetgainsinoilsandsand syntheticcrude;leavingonlymoderategainsinemployment.
68
Demographic Supply Side Measures - Mechanical, Electrical, Chemical Graduates Entering the Labour Force* Immigrants** Replacement Demand(#)*** Replacement (% of Trend Employment)***
2007 431 717 167 1.8
2008 476 711 285 1.9
2009 462 648 109 1.7
2010 2018
(Annual Average)
476 619 127 2.2
KeyPoints: Immigrationandpostsecondarygraduationshavebeenslowlyincreasingacrossthe decade. Immigrationhasusuallyprovidedtwiceasmanyengineersaslocaleducation. Theworkforceisolderthantheaverageforallengineers.
69
ExcessSupply AlbertaMechanical,ElectricalandChemicalEngineers
2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f ExcessSupply
20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% Percent
ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment
KeyPoints: Joblossesduringtherecessiondroveexcesssupplytorecordlevels,but o Asteadyrecoverycombineswithstableadditionstotheworkforcetobalance markets.
Rankingsmaynotadequatelyreflectchallengesrecruitingengineerswithoverfiveyears ofexperienceinthisandotheroccupations; o Labourrequirementsaredominatedbyretirementswhileadditionstothe workforcecomefromnewgraduatesandtemporaryforeignworkers;creatinga potentialmismatchofskillsandexperience.
Labour Market Rankings Mechanical, Electrical, Chemical
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
70
PetroleumEngineersAlberta
ExhibitC3.1PetroleumEngineersAlberta
115 110 Index2007=100 105 100 95 90 85
IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrialGrowth PetroleumEngineers
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 AllPetroleumEngineers Professional,Scientific,Managerial
TotalPrimary
KeyPoints: Industrystakeholdersnotethatmanypetroleumengineersareidentifiedbytheiryearsof experienceintheindustry,notbytheiracademicqualifications. Labourrequirementsarecyclicalandcanbemetbyengineersfromotherdisciplinesor consultingatpeakconditions. Employmentisdrivenbyemploymentinprofessional,scientificandmanagementservices (includingengineeringconsultingservices)andprimaryindustries. Largeemploymentgainsforpetroleumengineers,reportedin2007and2008,seemtobe outoflinewithrelatedindustryactivity. Recoveryisdelayedbylimitstoconventionaloilandgasproductionandthegradual resumptionofoilsandswork.
71
ExhibitC3.2PetroleumEngineersAlberta
Demographic Supply Side Measures - Petroleum Graduates Entering the Labour Force* Immigrants** Replacement Demand (#)*** Replacement (% of Trend Employment)***
2007 34 63 104 1.7
2008 44 104 152 1.9
2009 41 142 169 1.4
2010 2018
(Annual Average)
51 115 193 1.7
KeyPoints: EnrolmentsandgraduationsfromAlbertapostsecondaryprogramshavebeenrising, but, o

Immigrationofbothpermanentandtemporaryengineershasprovidedthe majorityofthenewworkforce.
Oneimpactoftheimmigrantpopulationistoreducetheageprofiletolevelsbelowthe provincialaverageforallengineers.
72
ExhibitC3.3PetroleumEngineers,Alberta
ExcessSupply AlbertaPetroleumEngineers
1000 500 0 500 1000 1500 2000
10% 6% 2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22%
Percent
KeyPoints: Significantgainsinemploymentfrom2007to2008reducedexcesssupplytolowlevels and o Expectedadditionstotheworkforcewillnotrestorebalance.
Slowrecoveryweakensmarketsfrom2009to2013. Theyoungageprofileofthisoccupationlimitsreplacementdemandslaterinthe scenario. Measuredadditionstotheworkforcearelimitedasfewgraduatescompleteacademic programsinthisfieldandfewimmigrantsarriveinthisoccupation. Rankingsdonotreflectthesupplyofanddemandforengineerswithrelatedtrainingbut experiencethatqualifiestheminthisoccupation; o Recruitingwillbeachallengeforthisgroupinmostyears
ExhibitC3.4PetroleumEngineers,Alberta
Labour Market Rankings Petroleum
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
73
OtherEngineersAlberta
ExhibitC4.1OtherEngineers,Alberta
130 120 Index2007=100 110 100 90 80 70
IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrialGrowth OtherEngineers
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Professional,Scientific,Managerial AllOtherIndustries
KeyPoints: Employmentisdrivenbyinvestmentandoutputinmanufacturingandotherindustries.
74
ExhibitC4.2OtherEngineersAlberta
2007 156 225 71 1.8
2008 166 206 71 1.0
2009 164 196 102 1.6
2010 2018
(Annual Average)
183 179 105 1.8
KeyPoints: Risingnumbersoftemporaryforeignworkersfrom2000to2008balancelower permanentimmigration. Graduationsfrompostsecondaryprogramshaveslowlydeclinedfrom2003to2008. Immigrantsoutnumberlocalgraduatesandthiskeepstheageprofilebelowaveragefor allengineers.
75
ExcessSupply AlbertaOtherEngineers
900 600 300 0 300 600 900 1200 1500 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment 9% 6% 3% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% Percent 2017 0%
KeyPoints: Establishedandstablelevelsofpermanentimmigrationandgraduationsarenot sufficienttomeetrisingemploymentandreplacementdemandsduringthestrongest yearsofgrowth. Temporaryforeignworkersarefillingtheneedsinseveraloccupations; o Thisprocessmeetsrisinglabourrequirementsbutdoesnotprovidealongterm domesticlabourforce.
Theyoungageprofilehelpstolimitlabourrequirementslaterinthescenarioand currentlevelsofentrywouldbalancethemarketatthattime.
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2018
76
TotalEngineersAlberta
ExhibitC5.1TotalEngineers,Alberta
120 115 Index2007=100 110 105 100 95 90 85
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AllEngineers TotalPrimary
Professional,Scientific,Managerial OtherIndusrties
KeyPoints: Averageannualgrowthinengineeringemploymentfrom2010to2018is1.6%,wellabove theaverageforallemploymentinAlberta. Overalltotalemploymentistiedtoemploymentinprofessional,scientificandmanagement services(includingengineeringconsultingservices)andprimaryindustries. Employmentgrowthacrossthescenarioislowerthaninotherprovincesbecauseof decliningconventionaloilandgasproduction.
77
Demographic Supply Side Measures Total Engineers Graduates Entering the Labour Force* Immigrants** Replacement Demand (#)*** Replacement (% of Trend Employment)***
2007 750 1221 436 1.8
2008 839 1253 601 1.6
2009 790 1194 611 1.6
2010 2018
(Annual Average)
866 1103 663 1.9
KeyPoints: Immigrationdominateslocalgraduatesasasourceoflabour,and o Permanentimmigrationisbeingreplacedbytemporaryforeignworkers.
78
ExhibitC5.3AllEngineersAlberta
ExcessSupply AlbertaTotalEngineers
4000 2000 0 2000 4000 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% Percent 2018
KeyPoints: Additionstotheworkforcelargelybalancelabourrequirementsandexcesssupply moveswithinnarrowbounds. Averageresultsforallengineersconcealimbalancesforsomeoccupations. Balancedmarketsrelyonhighandcontinuinglevelsofimmigration. Securingasteadysupplyoftemporaryforeignworkersplacesaburdenonlocal recruiters.

Labour Market Rankings Summary Total, All Engineers
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
79
ExhibitC6TotalEngineers,Alberta
Labour Market Rankings Summary Civil engineers Mechanical, Electrical, Chemical Petroleum All Other Total, All Engineers
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2 2 2 2 2
3 3 3 3 3
3 3 3 3 3
3 3 3 3 3
4 3 3 3 3
4 3 3 3 3
4 3 3 3 3
4 3 4 3 3
4 3 4 3 3
4 3 3 3 3
KeyPoints: Tightmarketsforcivilengineersreflecttheolderageprofileandreplacementdemand. Balancedmarketswithrankingsof3areconsistentwithshorttermrecruitingchallenges forspecializedskillsandexperience. Inmarketswitholderageprofilesandsignificantexpectedretirements,rankingsmay notadequatelyreflectchallengesrecruitingengineerswithoverfiveyearsof experience; o Labourrequirementsaredominatedbyretirementswhileadditionstothe workforcecomefromnewgraduatesandtemporaryforeignworkers;creatinga potentialmismatchofskillsandexperience.
80
DSaskatchewan
TheEconomy Thissectionintroducesprovincialresultsfortheoverallengineeringlabourmarketfrom2009to 2018.Labourmarketconditionsforengineeringoccupationswilldependonkeyeconomic backgroundfactors.Abriefsummaryofexpectedconditionsispresentedhereandacomplete writeupoftheCenterforSpatialEconomicsJanuary,2010Provincialforecastisattachedin AppendixA. SaskatchewansGDPfellbylessthan1%in2009,themildestdownturnamongWestern provinces.InvestmentsinpotashanduraniumminingwerekeydriversofSaskatchewans recenteconomicboompriortotherecessionandtheseopportunitiesareexpectedtorecover withtheriseincommoditypricesover2010and2011.Asdemandforexportsrecover,outputis expectedtogrowbyamodest2.4%in2010,andthensettleatjustbelow2%percentforthe remainderoftheforecastperiod. Growthinexportsofresources,investmentintheprimarysectorandasteadyrecoveryin manufacturingcontributetoalevelofgrowththatwillnecessitateariseinnetimmigrationto meetemploymentdemandovertheforecastperiod.Theensuingriseinpopulationgrowthwill requireincreasedexpenditureingovernmentserviceindustries,especiallyinthehealthservices sector. StatisticsCanadadataforengineeringemploymentisnotreliableforindividualoccupationsand thelabourmarketassessmentislimitedtoallengineers.The2006Censusreports3270 engineersinSaskatchewanandtheLabourForceSurveyindicatesthatemploymenthas increasedsignificantlyto3800in2009.
ExhibitDSaskatchewan Labour Market Total Engineers 2006c (Census) 3270

2009e (Estimated Trend) 3806
KeyPoints: TheLabourForceSurveyestimatessignificantincreasesinengineeringemployment between2006and2009.Estimatesoftrendemploymentdampentheseeminglyunrealistic gains. o LFSestimatesa20%increasein2009employment
81
TotalEngineersSaskatchewan
ExhibitD1.1TotalEngineersSaskatchewan
IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrialGrowth AllEngineers
150 140
Index2007=100
130 120 110 100 90 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Manufacturing Construction TotalPrimary Professional,Scientific,Managerial AllEngineers
KeyPoints: Averageannualgrowthinengineeringemploymentfrom2010to2018is0.8%,belowthe averageforallemploymentinSaskatchewan Significantinvestmentsinconstructionrelatedtogrowthintheresourcesectorinrecent yearshavecontributedtostrongemploymentgrowth. Asignificantproportionofengineeringemploymentisconcentratedintheprofessional, scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices),alongwith themanufacturingsectors,whichremainrelativelyflatovertheforecast. StrongpopulationgrowthinSaskatchewansupportsengineeringemploymentin governmentservicessectorovertheothersectors,inthesecondhalfoftheforecastperiod.
82
ExhibitD1.2TotalEngineers,Saskatchewan
2007 226 2 39 2.1
2008 258 49 98 2.9
2009 284 51 103 2.9
2010 2018
(Annual Average)
252 29 66 2.1
KeyPoints: Graduatesfrompostsecondaryprogramsaretheprimarysourceofnewengineersin theprovince. o Permanentimmigrationisnegligible;decliningtozeroin2008.
TheageprofileofengineersinSaskatchewanisaveragerelativetootherprovinces.
83
ExcessSupply SaskatchewanTotalEngineers
200 150 100 50 0 50 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment
20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5%
KeyPoints: Significantemploymentgrowthandlowlevelsofimmigrationkeptlabourmarketstight in2009. Limitedemploymentgrowthandasteadysupplyofnewentrantsmaintainbalanced marketsovertheforecastperiod. Astheworkforceageprofileriseslaterinthedecade,thepoolofexperiencedengineers willberestrictedand; o rankingsmaynotadequatelyreflectchallengesrecruitingengineerswithover fiveyearsofexperience.
Labourrequirementsaredominatedbyretirementswhileadditionstotheworkforce comefromnewgraduatesandtemporaryforeignworkers;creatingapotential mismatchofskillsandexperience.
Percent
84
EManitoba
TheEconomy Thissectionintroducesprovincialresultsfortheoverallengineeringlabourmarketfrom2009to 2018.Labourmarketconditionsforengineeringoccupationswilldependonkeyeconomic backgroundfactors.Abriefsummaryofexpectedconditionsispresentedhereandacomplete writeupoftheCenterforSpatialEconomicsJanuary,2010Provincialforecastisattachedin AppendixA. Manitobaexperiencedamoderatedeclineinoutputof0.9%in2009,dueprimarilytoadecline inexportsandmanufacturingsectoractivity.In2010,themanufacturingsectorbeginsto recoverandastrongreboundinconstructioninvestmentspursgrowthto2.6%.Inthelong term,growthfallsto2%. Overthemediumtermtheutilitysectorisakeydriverofgrowthwithalargenumberofelectric powerprojectsplannedbyManitobaHydro.Themanufacturingsectorisexpectedtogrow steadilyasdemandforexportsrecovers,butwilltakeafewyearstorecoupthelargelosses sufferedin2009.Investmentrelatedtohealthandsocialserviceswillrisewithanaging population. Theagingofthepopulationwillalsoslowthegrowthofthelabourforce,requiringincreased levelsofnetimmigrationtopreventseriouslabourshortagesovertheforecastperiod. StatisticsCanadadataforengineeringemploymentisnotreliableforindividualoccupationsand thelabourmarketassessmentislimitedtoallengineers.The2006Censusreports4080 engineersinManitobaandtheLabourForceSurveyindicatesthatemploymenthadfallen slightlyby2009.
ExhibitEManitoba Labour Market Total, All Engineers 2006c (Census) 4080 Source: Statistics Canada, Prism Economics and Analysis 2009e (Estimated Trend) 3998
KeyPoints: TheLabourForceSurveyestimatesthatengineeringemploymentpeakedin2007before fallingsharplyover2008and2009.Estimatesoftrendemploymentdampenthemagnitude ofthedecline. o LFSestimatesa20%declineinemploymentbetween2007and2009.
85
TotalEngineersManitoba
ExhibitE1.1TotalEngineers,Manitoba
180 160 Index2007=100 140 120 100 80 60
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
KeyPoints: Averageannualgrowthinengineeringemploymentfrom2010to2018is2.4%,well abovetheaverageforallemploymentinManitoba. In2009,thedeclineinemploymentrelatedtothemanufacturingsectorissomewhat offsetbystronggrowthinprofessional,scientific,andmanagementservices(including engineeringconsultingservices). Employmentreboundsin2010propelledbyasharpincreaseinutilitiessector employment. Inthemediumterm,engineeringemploymentgrowsmoderatelyasemploymentinthe manufacturingsectorrecovers. Totalengineeringemploymentpeaksin2014,thendeclinessomewhatoverthetailend oftheforecastperiod,asemploymentintheutilitiessectorwindsdown.
86
Demographic Supply Side Measures - Total, All Engineers Graduates Entering the Labour Force* Immigrants** Replacement Demand (#)*** Replacement (% of Trend Employment)***
2007 109 85 63 2.2
2008 153 79 63 1.6
2009 111 79 72 1.6
2010 2018
(Annual Average)
152 79 92 2.2
KeyPoints: Graduatesfrompostsecondaryprogramsmakeupthemajorityofnewengineersinthe province. o o Althoughpermanentimmigrationisnegligible,temporaryforeignworkersarea smallbutconstantpresenceinthelaboursupply. Theproportionoftemporaryforeignworkersdiminishesastheaverageannual numberofnewentrantsincreasesovertheforecastperiod.
TheageprofileofengineersinManitobaisneartheaverageofotherprovinces,and increasesovertheforecastperiod.
87
300 250 200 150 100 50 0 50 100
ExcessSupply ManitobaTotalEngineers
15% 10% 5% 0% 5% Percent
KeyPoints: Thesharpdeclineinmanufacturingemploymentin2009combinedwiththeabove averagenumberofnewentrantsin2008resultsinaneasingofmarketconditionsin 2009. Largeinvestmentsintheutilitiessectorstresstheprovinciallaboursupply,tightening marketsin2010,andoverthemediumterm. Asutilitysectorinvestmentswinddownin2014,excesssupplybalancesoutforthe remainderoftheforecastperiod. Astheworkforceageprofileriseslaterinthedecadethepoolofexperiencedengineers willberestrictedand; o rankingsmaynotadequatelyreflectchallengesrecruitingengineerswithover fiveyearsofexperience.
Labourrequirementsaredominatedbyretirements,whileadditionstotheworkforce comesfromnewgraduatesandtemporaryforeignworkers;creatingapotential mismatchofskillsandexperience.
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
88
FOntario
TheEconomy Abriefsummaryofexpectedeconomicconditionsispresentedhereandacompletewriteupof theCenterforSpatialEconomicsJanuary,2010ProvincialforecastisattachedinAppendixA. OntarioistheweakestlinkinCanadasrecessionchain,withalargedropofover3.5%inoverall outputin2009.IndeedGDPbegantodeclinein2008andrecoveryisexpectedtobeginin2010. Weaknessinthehousingsectoranddecliningexportsledthedownturn.Therecoverypath retracesthesestepswithbothhousingandexportsrisingaheadoftherestoftheeconomy. But,inbothsectors,therecoveryisslowand2007peaklevelsarenotregaineduntil2012. Labourmarketimpactsareseverewithemploymentfalling2.5%in2009.Unemploymentrose from6.5%in2008to9%in2009,thehighestlevelsincethelastrecession,andrisesagainin 2010.Employmentinmanufacturinghasbeenfallingsince2005andwhileitrecoversstrongly from2010to2012,itdoesnotregainpastpeaklevelsduringthescenario. Amodestexpansionisanticipatedfrom2013to2018astrendratesofgrowthhoveraround2%. Generaleconomicgrowthislowerthaninthepastduetoslowerpopulationgrowthandthe relatedlimitstothelabourforce.Labourmarketswillreflectthesedemographictrendsthrough verylowunemploymentratesandongoingrecruitingchallenges.Higherimmigrationisthekey toeconomicgrowthandnetimmigrationrisestorecordlevelsacrossthecomingdecade. Manufacturingoutputandemploymentlossesbeganin2005.The2009recessionmarksthe bottomofalongslumpasshipmentsandemploymentbegintoimprovein2010.Recoveryis strongbutthe2001peaklevelsforoutputisnotreacheduntil2015andemploymentdoesnot regainthe2005peakduringthescenario.Thisrecoveryformanufacturingisdrivenbynew technologiesandrelatedinvestmentsinnewprocessesearlyintherecovery.These improvementsaddbiggainsinproductivity.Therecoveryinmanufacturingfrom2010to2018, whilemodestbyhistoricalstandards,addsenoughjobsandactivitytoraiseemploymentand outputgrowthinOntariotoamongthestrongestinCanadaoverthisperiod. Thegovernmentsectorandconstructionplayanimportantcountercyclicalroleinthe projection.Infrastructureprojectsandcontinuinggovernmentinvestmentboostnon residentialconstructionfrom2009to2011andthishelpstolimittherecession.Government deficitsgrowin2009and2010andthespendingrestraintrequiredlatertobalancethebudget slowsdowntheoveralleconomicexpansion.Nonresidentialconstructionactivitycontinuesto bestrongacrossmostofthescenario. TheStatisticsCanadaCensuscounted85,000engineersworkinginOntarioin2006andcurrent estimatesfor2009reach87,000.
89
ExhibitFOntario Labour Market Civil engineers Mechanical engineers Electrical and electronics Industrial and Manufacturing All Other Total, All Engineers 2006c (Census) 16447 19145 15053 10248 24454 85347 2009e (Estimated Trend) 17620 21070 14830 9899 23839 87258
KeyPoints: Weaknessinmanufacturingreducedemploymentinindustrialandelectricalengineering from2006to2009. Strengthinnonresidentialconstructionandutilitiesaddedtoemployment.
90
CivilEngineersOntario
ExhibitF1.1CivilEngineers,Ontario
130 125 120 115

Index2007=100
110 105 100 95 90 85 80

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 AllCivilEngineers Construction Professional,Scientific,Managerial GovernmentServices
KeyPoints: Employmentofcivilengineersisdrivenbyinvestmentandemploymentinprofessional, scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices),government servicesandconstruction. Stimulustoinfrastructureaddedworkin2009and2010. Governmentrestraintwilllimitemploymentlaterinthescenario. Employmentgrowthforcivilengineersisbelowtheoverallaverageforallengineering occupationsacrossthe2007to2018period. Industrystakeholdersnotedthatdemandisstrongforstructuralengineersandthatthis groupisacomponentofandmarketsarerelatedtocivilwork
91
Demographic Supply Side Measures - Civil engineers Graduates Entering the Labour Force* Immigrants** Replacement Demand (#)*** Replacement (% of Trend Employment)***
2007 474 447 279 2.6
2008 461 399 457 2.2
2009 465 399 426 2.2
2010 2018
(Annual Average)
483 385 449 2.6
KeyPoints: Permanentimmigrationhasfallensteadilyfrom2,000in2000toover350in2008and theannualarrivaloftemporaryforeignworkershasremainedatlevelsnear150. EnrolmentsandgraduationfromOntariopostsecondaryprogramshasrisensteadily, andwillcontinuetogrowuntil2012atleast, Theageprofileforcivilengineersisolderthantheoverallpatternforallengineers.
92
ExcessSupply OntarioCivilEngineers
1500 1000 500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment
6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
KeyPoints: Excesssupplyhasbeenlowasadditionstotheworkforcehavelaggedwhile employmenthastrendedup. Additionstotheworkforcefallbelowlabourrequirementsatthestrongestpointofthe recovery. Labourmarketsgrowsteadilytighterastherecoveryendsandamodestexpansion takeshold. Replacementdemandscombinewithrisingemploymentandrunaheadofadditionsto theworkforceespeciallylaterinthescenario.
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Percent 2018
93
MechanicalEngineersOntario
ExhibitF2.1MechanicalEngineers,Ontario
140 130
Index2007=100
IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrialGrowth MechanicalEngineers
120 110 100 90 80

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 AllMechanicalEngineers Professional,Scientific,Managerial Manufacturing Utilities
KeyPoints: Employmentofmechanicalengineersisdrivenbyoutputandinvestmentinprofessional, scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineeringconsulting),alongwiththe manufacturingandutilitiesindustries. Arelativelylargeproportionofmechanicalengineersworkinmanufacturingandsomejob opportunitiesaretiedtothecycle. Investmentinnewmanufacturingprocessesdrivesemploymentupfrom2011to2014. Increaseddemandisdrivenbytheutilitiessectortowardstheendofthescenario. Industrystakeholdersnotethatgraduatesandimmigrantsenteringtheworkforceas mechanicalengineersmayaddtrainingandgainindustrialexperienceinareaslike petroleum,environmental,andotherareas. Portableskillsandspecializationmayimplyhigherlabourrequirementsandsuggesthigher rankingsthanmeasuresshownhere.
94
Demographic Supply Side Measures - Mechanical engineers Graduates Entering the Labour Force* Immigrants** Replacement Demand (#)*** Replacement (% of Trend Employment)***
2007 809 942 316 2.3
2008 898 709 466 2.0
2009 708 702 442 2.0
2010 2018
(Annual Average)
884 691 454 2.3
KeyPoints: Thenumberofnewpermanentimmigrantshasfallenfromapeakof2,900in2001to 340in2008. o Modestincreasesintemporaryforeignworkershavepartlyoffsetthedecline.
Enrolmentsandgraduatesfrompostsecondaryprogramshaveincreasedandtrendswill raisethenumberofgradstorecordlevelsin2012. Theageprofileformechanicalengineersisslightlyolderthantheaverageforall engineers.
95
ExcessSupply OntarioMechanicalEngineers
1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 200 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment
8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1%
KeyPoints: Recession,especiallyinmanufacturing,addedtoexcesssupplyin2009butrecovery quicklyabsorbstheavailablenewworkforce. Limitednumbersofnewentrantsarenotsufficienttomeetlabourrequirementsas marketsimprovefrom2011to2013. Ifcurrentlevelsofimmigrationandpostsecondarygraduationsareassumed, replacementdemandswilladdtorequirementsandcreatetightmarketslaterinthe scenario.
Labour Market Rankings Mechanical engineers
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Percent 2017
2018
96
ElectricalandElectronicsEngineersOntario
ExhibitF3.1ElectricalandElectronicsEngineers,Ontario
140 130
Index2007=100
120 110 100 90 80

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AllElectricalandElectronicsEngineers Professional,Scientific,Managerial Manufacturing Utilities
KeyPoints: Employmentisdrivenbyinvestmentandemploymentinprofessional,scientificand managementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices),alongwithmanufacturing andutilitiesindustries.
97
Demographic Supply Side Measures - Electrical and Electronics Graduates Entering the Labour Force* Immigrants** Replacement Demand(#)*** Replacement (% of Trend Employment)***
2007 781 735 363 2.2
2008 811 516 235 1.8
2009 652 509 285 1.8
2010 2018
(Annual Average)
748 540 311 2.2
KeyPoints: Bothpermanentandtemporaryimmigrationhavedeclinedsteadilysince2000: o o

Permanentimmigrationdroppedfrom3,000to420. Annualarrivalsoftemporaryforeignworkershaveaveragedfewerthan 400.
Gradualincreaseinenrolmentsandgraduationsfrompostsecondaryprograms graduallyriseandcompensateforlowerimmigration. Theageprofileforelectricalengineersisclosetotheaverageforallengineers.
98
ExcessSupply OntarioElectrical&ElectronicEngineers
2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 500 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f ExcessSupply
15% 12% Percent
9% 6% 3% 0% 3%
ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment
KeyPoints: Thecyclicaldropinemploymentin2009restoresmorenormallevelsofexcesssupply andtheadditionstotheworkforcekeeppacewithrequirementsfromthatpoint forward. Thereisariskoftightermarketsin2012and2013astherecoveryreachesitsstrongest point. Replacementdemandsrelatedtoretirementswillcreatetightmarket,especiallyfor experiencedengineerslaterinthescenario.
Labour Market Rankings Electrical and Electronics
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
99
IndustrialEngineersOntario
ExhibitF4.1IndustrialEngineers,Ontario
170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70
IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrialGrowth IndustrialEngineers
Index2007=100
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AllIndustrialandManufacturingEngineers Manufacturing Professional,Scientific,Managerial
KeyPoints: Employmentisdrivenprimarilybyinvestmentinmanufacturingandprofessional,scientific andmanagementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices)industries. Asharpdeclineinmanufacturingjobsin2009wascushionedsomewhatbytheprofessional, scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices)sector. Biggainsinemploymentfrom2011to2015arelinkedtotherecoveryinmanufacturing investment. Employmentgainsacrossthescenariorebuildjobsforthisoccupationandreachthepast peakemploymentlevelfrom2005,by2011.
100
Demographic Supply Side Measures - Industrial and Manufacturing Graduates Entering the Labour Force* Immigrants** Replacement Demand (#)*** Replacement (% of Trend Employment)***
2007 129 298 177 2.0
2008 67 163 166 1.8
2009 79 176 195 1.8
2010 2018
(Annual Average)
71 220 199 2.0
KeyPoints: Permanentimmigrationhasdeclinedsince2000andannualarrivalsoftemporary foreignworkershavebeenlargelyunchanged. Therearefewpostsecondaryprogramstrainingthisworkforce. Industrystakeholderscommentthatengineerstrainedinotherspecializationsgain industrial/manufacturingexperienceandfilljobsinthesemarkets. Theageprofileforindustrialengineersisclosetotheaverageforallengineers.
101
ExcessSuply OntarioIndustrial&ManufacturingEngineers
1000 500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment 6% 3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% Percent 2018
KeyPoints: Excesssupplyhasalwaysbeenlimitedforthisoccupation. Recessioncontributedtoanincreaseinunemploymentin2009. Thestrongrecoveryinmanufacturingandtheshifttoinvestmentandnewtechnologies willrequiremoreindustrialengineersthanarelikelytobeavailable. Projectedlabourshortagesaredrivenbytheexpectedrecoveryinmanufacturing investmentsinnewprocessesandtechnologies. Industrystakeholdersnotethattightmarketsinthesespecializationsarefocusedamong experiencedengineers. Recruitingpatternsthatfocusontemporaryforeignworkersthatqualifylaterfor permanentstatusmayfitthisoccupation.
Labour Market Rankings Industrial and Manufacturing
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
102
AllOtherEngineersOntario
ExhibitF5.1AllOtherEngineers,Ontario
KeyDriversofEmployment AllOtherEngineers
150 140 130 Index2007=100 120 110 100 90 80 70 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Professional,Scientific,Managerial AllOtherIndustries
KeyPoints: Employmentisdrivenprimarilybyinvestmentinmanufacturingandprofessional,scientific andmanagementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices)industries. Thisgroupincludesawiderangeofengineeringspecialtiesincluding;mining,geological, petroleum,aerospace,computerandothers.
103
Demographic Supply Side Measures - All Other Graduates Entering the Labour Force* Immigrants** Replacement Demand(#)*** Replacement (% of Trend Employment)***
2007 1207 614 227 1.5
2008 1075 527 353 1.6
2009 804 584 416 1.6
2010 2018
(Annual Average)
1099 561 380 1.6
KeyPoints: Bothpermanentandtemporaryimmigrationhavebeendecliningsince2000: o o Permanentimmigrationfellfromover2,200in2001toover360in2008. Annualarrivalsoftemporaryforeignworkersfellfrom800to470.
PostsecondaryprogramsinOntariohaveincreasedenrolmentsandgraduationsbut thesegainshavenotbalancedlowerlevelsofimmigration. Theageprofileforthisoccupationisyoungerthanaverage.
104
ExcessSupply OntarioOtherEngineers
4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1000 2000 3000 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% 3% 6% 9% Percent 2018
KeyPoints: Astheeconomicrecoveryreachesitsstrongestpointin2012,labourrequirements exhaustthecurrentpatternofworkforceadditions. Labourrequirementsarelimitedbyrelativelylowlevelsofretirementsandprojected levelsofgraduatesfromOntarioprogramsshouldmeetoveralldemands. Thiscategoryaveragestogetherseveralsmalleroccupations,andoverallmeasuresmay concealspecificmarketconditions.
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
105
EngineersTotalOntario
ExhibitF6.1TotalEngineers,Ontario
140 130
Index2007=100
120 110 100 90 80 70

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 AllEngineers Manufacturing Professional,Scientific,Managerial AllOtherIndustries
KeyPoints: Averageannualgrowthinengineeringemploymentfrom2010to2018is3.2%,wellabove theaverageforallemploymentinOntarioandhigherthaninmostotherprovinces. Engineeringemploymentistiedtoinvestmentandoutputinprofessional,scientificand managementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices)andmanufacturing industries. Followingthesharpdeclinein2009,growthresumesinlinewithinvestmentinthe professional,scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices) industry. EmploymentgrowthforengineersinOntariofrom2009to2018isamongthehighestin Canada. Formanyoccupationsaportionofthesegainsareneededtorebuildemploymenttoearlier peaklevels.
106
Demographic Supply Side Measures Total Engineers Graduates Entering the Labour Force* Immigrants** Replacement Demand(#)*** Replacement (% of Trend Employment)***
2007 3747 3208 1434 2.1
2008 3702 2459 1541 1.6
2009 3163 2517 1533 1.6
2010 2018
(Annual Average)
3664 2541 1785 2.1
KeyPoints: ImmigrationhasdeclineddramaticallyformostOntariooccupationssince2000. Highlevelsatthestartofthedecadeexceededrequirements. Temporaryforeignworkershavepartlyreplacedthedeclineinpermanentimmigration forsomeoccupations. Insomecasesthecorrection,andlowerlevelsofimmigration,maycontributeto shortagesduringtherecovery. PostsecondaryprogramsinOntariohavesteadilyexpandedandslowlyreplace immigrationasthemostimportantsourceofsupply.
107
ExcessSupply OntarioTotalEngineers
10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2000 4000 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% Percent 2017 2018
KeyPoints: Atthepeakoftherecoveryin2012and2013thereisariskthatlabourrequirements willexceedthenumberofaddedengineers. Whilemanufacturingactivityleadstherecoveryprocess,theentireOntarioeconomyis projectedtosteadilygainmomentumasemploymentgrowthacceleratesfrom2010to 2012. Theseemploymentgainsmightexceedthecurrenttrendsinimmigrationand graduations. Industrystakeholdersconfirmconcernsthatlabourmarketswillbetight;especiallyfor experiencedengineers Insomemarketsengineerswhooriginallygraduatedinonespecialtymovetoother areas;acquiringskillsandexperienceinspecificindustries. Thisprocesswillhelptobalancesomemarketsbutmayalsobeassociatedwith shortagesandrecruitingproblemsinothers.
Labour Market Rankings Total, All Engineers
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
108
EngineersOntarioSummary
ExhibitF7TotalEngineers,Ontario
Labour Market Rankings Civil engineers Mechanical engineers Electrical and Electronics Industrial and Manufacturing All Other Total, All Engineers 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
3 3 2 2 2 2
3 3 3 3 3 3
4 4 3 4 3 3
4 4 4 4 4 4
4 4 4 4 3 4
4 3 3 4 3 3
4 4 3 4 3 3
4 4 4 4 3 3
4 4 4 4 3 4
4 4 4 4 3 4
KeyPoints: Engineeringlabourmarketswerereturningtomorebalancedconditionsfrom2006to 2008,recoveringfromaninfluxofimmigrantsthatpeakedin2001. Recessionin2008and2009weakenedmostmarkets. Therecoveryisgenerallymodestandlabourrequirementsarenotgrowingrapidlyby historicalstandardsbut: o o Manufacturinggrowsoutofadeepslumpwithaperiodofstronginvestment. Thischangewillrequireengineersinrelatedfields.
Attheendofthescenario,from2014to2018,growthislimited.However,atcurrent levelsofimmigrationandgraduations,marketsremaintightbecauseofreplacement demandsrelatedtoincreasingratesofretirements.Recruitingwillbeespeciallydifficult forexperiencedengineers.
109
GQuebec
TheEconomy Abriefsummaryofexpectedeconomicconditionsispresentedhereandacompletewriteupof theCenterforSpatialEconomicsJanuary,2010ProvincialforecastisattachedinAppendixA. TheQuebececonomyhasavoidedtheworstimpactsoftherecessionwithGDPdecliningjust 1.5%,lessthanforCanadaasawhole,in2009.Recoverywillalsobemoderate,withgainsof 2.7%in2010.Decliningexportsandweakhousingledthedeclineandimprovementsinexport willleadtherecovery.MediumandlongtermprospectsforgrowthinQuebecaremodest, largelyduetolimitedpopulationgrowth. Cyclicalchangesinemploymenthavebeenlimitedandunemploymentremainswellbelow historicalpeaksacrosstherecession.Thisispartlyrelatedtoeconomicstrengthbutalso reflectstheslowinggrowthinthelabourforce.Unemploymentwillremainfarbelowpastlevels duetodemographicsandthisimplieslongtermrecruitingchallenges.Increasingimmigration willbeanimportantresponsetolabourrequirements. Manufacturingandprimaryindustries,likemining,standoutasleadersinboththerecoveryto 2013andthelatertrendgrowthintheeconomy.Improvementsarepartlyduetoprojected stronginvestmentinnewtechnologiesandprocesses.Thesegainsarealsorelatedtomajor utilityprojectsthatexpandelectricalgenerationanddistributioncapacity.Inprimaryindustries andmanufacturingthesegainsaremakinguplostgroundastheseindustriesdeclinedoverthe pastdecade.Relativelystrongoutputandemploymentgrowthbringthesesectorsbackto previouspeaksbetween2013and2015. Thegovernmentandnonresidentialconstructionsectorsfollowacountercyclicalpath. Infrastructureprojects,financedbygovernment,helptolimittheimpactofrecessionandnon residentialconstructionprojects(includingsomeindustrialandutilityexpansion)providejobsin 2009and2010.Astherecoverygainsmomentumafter2011,governmentspendingiscutback toreducetheaccumulateddeficits.Thispostrecessionslowdownholdsbackconstruction from2011to2013,butnonresidentialprojectsespeciallyinutilitiesprovideworklateinthe scenario. TheStatisticsCanadaCensuscounted40,600engineersworkinginQuebecin2006andcurrent estimatesfor2009reachnear44,000.

110
ExhibitGQuebec LabourMarket Civil Mechanical Electrical AllOther Total,AllEngineers 2006c (Census) 9210 6320 8160 16775 40465 2009e (EstimatedTrend) 12010 5990 9475 16457 43932
Source:StatisticsCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
KeyPoints: LabourForcesurveyestimatesfortheseoccupationsarevariablefromyeartoyearandmay containmeasurementerrors.
111
CivilEngineersQuebec
ExhibitG1.1CivilEngineers,Quebec
125 120 115 Index2007=100 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Civilengineers Construction
Professional,Scientific,Managerial Manufacturing
KeyPoints: Infrastructurespendingonroads,bridgesandotherconstructionprojectshasaddedto employmentdemands. Largegovernmentprojectsandotherinfrastructureinitiativesmayraisedemandsfor civilengineersbymorethanmeasuresincludedinthescenario. Laterinthescenariooverallgrowthforcivilengineersisprojectedtobelowerthanfor otherengineeringoccupations,mostlyduetorestraintingovernmentbudgetsafterthe recovery.
112
Demographic Supply Side Measures Civil Graduates Entering the Labour Force* Immigrants** Replacement Demand (#)*** Replacement (% of Trend Employment)***
2007
293 170 151 2.4
2008
319 218 151 2.4
2009
418 249 353 2.2
20102018
(Annual Average)
389 236 345 2.4
KeyPoints: Bothpermanentandtemporaryimmigrationhavebeenlimited,butstablesourcesof newcivilengineerssince2000. Enrolmentsandgraduationsfrompostsecondaryprogramshavebeengrowingsteadily since2000andwillreachapeakin2011. Trendsinenrolmentswillcauseasignificantdeclineingraduateslaterinthescenario. Theageprofileforcivilengineersisolderthanforotherengineeringoccupations.
113
1000 500 0 500 1000
ExcessSupply QuebecCivilEngineers
10% 5% 0% 5% 10% Percent
KeyPoints: Therecessionandlimitedrecoveryhasaddedtoexcesssupplyin2009and2010. Theexpectedjumpingraduationsin2010and2011willhelptoeasecurrentshortages butimmigrationandenrolmentslevelslaterinthescenarioarenotsufficienttomatch labourrequirementsacrossthelongerterm: o Themajorlongtermsourceofrequirementsisreplacingretiringcivilengineers.
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Tightmarketslateinthescenarioarerelatedtoretirements. Recruitingchallengeswillbemostsevereforexperiencedcivilengineers.
114
MechanicalEngineersQuebec
ExhibitG2.1MechanicalEngineers,Quebec
130 125 120 Index2007=100 115 110 105 100 95 90
IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrialGrowth MechanicalEngineers
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mechanicalengineers Manufacturing Professional,Scientific,Managerial
KeyPoints:
Recessioninmanufacturingandprimaryindustriespromptedabigdropin employmentin2009.
Relativelystronggrowthinemploymentformechanicalengineersisrelatedtothe recoveryinmanufacturingandsteadygainsintheprofessional,scientificand managementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices) sector. Industrystakeholdersnotethatmechanicalengineersoftenmoveintoindustrialand otherspecialities(e.g.environmentalengineering)intheyearsfollowinggraduation. Labourrequirementsrelatedtothesechangesarenotcountedinthemeasuresused hereanddemandmaybeunderstated.
115
Demographic Supply Side Measures - Mechanical Graduates Entering the Labour Force* Immigrants** Replacement Demand (#)*** Replacement (% of Trend Employment)***
2007 544 257 46 1.5
2008 449 254 46 1.5
2009 561 266 97 1.3
2010 2018
(Annual Average)
477 245 106 1.5
KeyPoints: Permanentimmigrationpeakedin2003andhasfallenby50%sincethen: o Temporaryimmigrationisnotafactor.
Postsecondarygraduationsrosesteadilytoapeakin2006andenrolmentchangeswill drivegraduationsbackuptorecordlevelsin2011. Theageprofileformechanicalengineersisyoungerthanforotherengineers.
116
1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
ExcessSupply QuebecMechanicalEngineers
12% 10% Percent
8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment
KeyPoints: Employmentgainsarestrongerthanaveragebutretirementsarelimited. Currenthighandrisingpostsecondarygraduationswillmeetrequirementsandsustain normallevelsofexcesssupplyacrossthescenario.
LabourMarket Rankings Mechanical
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Enrolmentpatternswillboostgraduationsin2011andnewentrantsmayexceedlabour requirementsatthattime. Asgraduationstrendbacktostablelevelslaterinthescenario,marketsbalance.
117
ElectricalEngineersQuebec
ExhibitG3.1ElectricalandElectronicsEngineers,Quebec
108 106 104 Index2007=100 102 100 98 96 94 92 90 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
ElectricalandElectronicsengineers Professional,Scientific,Managerial
KeyPoints: Recessioninmanufacturingandprimaryindustriesreducedemploymentsignificantlyin 2009. Employmentforelectricalengineersisdrivenbyemploymentinprofessional,scientificand managementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices),alongwithutilitiesand primaryindustries. Employmentgrowthacrossthescenarioislessthanforotherengineeringoccupations.
118
Demographic Supply Side Measures - Electrical Graduates Entering the Labour Force* Immigrants** Replacement Demand (#)*** Replacement (% of Trend Employment)***
2007 513 386 152 1.8
2008 449 378 152 1.8
2009 429 401 133 1.2
2010 2018
(Annual Average)
449 380 182 1.8
KeyPoints: Permanentimmigrationhasdeclinedmodestlysinceapeakin2003. Temporaryimmigrationhasincreasedtopartlyfillthegap. Postsecondaryprogramsincreasedenrolmentsandgraduationstoapeakin2006and trendswillpromptanotherpeakingraduationsin2011. Theageprofileforelectricalengineersisyoungerthantheaveragelevelsforother engineers.
119
ExcessSupply QuebecElectrical&ElectronicsEngineers
2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment
20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Percent 2017 2018
KeyPoints:
Currentlevelsofimmigrationandgraduationsmeetthelongertrendlabour requirementsandsustainexcesssupply.
Labour Market Rankings Electrical
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Therecessionweakenedmarketsandrecoverywillslowlyrestoremorebalanced conditions.
120
OtherEngineersQuebec
ExhibitG4.1OtherEngineers,Quebec
IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrialGrowth OtherEngineers
140 130 120 Index2007=100 110 100 90 80 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
OtherEngineers Professional,Scientific,Managerial Manufacturing
KeyPoints: Thisgroupcontainsseveraldifferentoccupationsincludingmining,geological,computer andotherengineers. Joblossesin2009werelessseverethaninotherengineeringoccupations.Employmentis drivenbyinvestmentandoutputinmanufacturing,professional,scientificandmanagement services(includingengineeringconsultingservices),alongwithotherindustries. Employmentgrowthfrom2009to2018willexceedtheaveragefortheotherengineering occupations.
121
ExhibitG4.2OtherEngineersQuebec
2007 736 676 250 1.6
2008 692 793 250 1.5
2009 465 837 171 1.0
2010 2018
(Annual Average)
737 755 247 1.6
KeyPoints: Permanentimmigrationpeakedin2004andhasfallensincethen: o Temporaryimmigrationhasincreasedtofillthegap.
Postsecondaryenrolmentpatternsheldthenumberofgraduationsnearlyconstant from2004to2007,buttheremaybeadeclinein2007and2008. Enrolmenttrendswillpromptasurgeingraduationsin2010and2011. Theageprofilefortheseoccupationsisclosetoaverageforallengineers.
122
1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 200
ExcessSupply QuebecOtherEngineers
7% 6% 5% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% Percent 4%
KeyPoints: Risinggraduationswilladdtotheworkforcein2010and2011;addingtothepoolof excesssupply. Limitedlabourrequirementsandrelativelylowreplacementdemandswillkeepexcess supplyhighacrossthescenario. After2011employmentdemandandlimitedrequirementsrelatedtoretirementswill befilledbycurrentlevelsofimmigrationandgraduationtrends.

2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Measuresreportedherecoverawiderangeofoccupationsandmarkets.Itispossible thatlocalconditionswillcausemarketdisruptionsthatarenotcapturedinthewider measuresreportedhere.
123
TotalEngineersQuebec
ExhibitG5.1TotalEngineers,Quebec
120 115 Index2007=100 110 105 100 95 90
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AllEngineers Manufacturing
Professional,Scientific,Managerial OtherIndusrties
KeyPoints: Averageannualgrowthinengineeringemploymentfrom2010to2018is1.8%,abovethe averageforallemploymentinQuebec. Overalltotalemploymentistiedtoemploymentinprofessional,scientificandmanagement services(includingengineeringconsulting)andprimaryindustries.Therecessioncutsjobs temporarily.GrowthinemploymentforengineersinQuebecislowerthanthegeneral, nationalprojectionfrom2010to2018.
124
2007 2087 1488 599 1.8
2008 2050 1643 599 1.8
2009 1873 1753 739 1.5
2010 2018
(Annual Average)
2161 1616 836 1.8
KeyPoints: PatternsofenrolmentandgraduationsfromQuebecprogramscreatedapeakingrads in2007andfurtherincreasesin2011and2012. Immigrationisholdingatrecentlevels.
125
ExcessSupply QuebecTotalEngineers
4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment 8% 7% 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Percent 5%
KeyPoints:
Afterabriefjumpinexcesssupplyin2009,labourmarketssettleintoabalanced patternwherenewentrantsbalancelabourrequirements.
LabourMarket Rankings TotalEngineers
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Marketswillbalancegivenexpectedtrendsinemployment,retirementsandcurrent levelsofimmigrationandgraduations.
126
ExhibitG6TotalEngineers,Quebec
Labour Market Rankings Civil engineers Mechanical Electrical All Other Total Engineers
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
3 1 2 2 2
3 3 2 3 3
3 2 2 2 2
3 2 3 2 3
4 2 3 3 3
3 3 3 3 3
4 3 3 3 3
4 3 3 3 3
4 3 3 3 3
4 3 3 3 3
KeyPoints: Tightermarketsforcivilengineersarerelatedtotheolderageprofileandhigher retirementdemandsforthisoccupation. Increasinggraduationsin2011and2012combinewithstablelevelsofimmigrationso thattheannualgainsintheworkforceareeitheraheadoforbalancinglabour requirementsforentrylevelengineersacrossthescenario. Labourmarketconditionswillbetighterforexperiencedengineersasretirementsrise
127
HAtlanticCanada
TheEconomy Abriefsummaryofexpectedeconomicconditionsispresentedhereandacompletewriteupof theCenterforSpatialEconomicsJanuary,2010ProvincialforecastisattachedinAppendixA. EconomicconditionsintheMaritimeProvinces(NewBrunswick,NovaScotiaandPrinceEdward Island)haveheldupwellduringtherecession.Whileotherprovinceshadmajoreconomic losses,activityintheMaritimespausedwithnooveralldecline.Governmentstimulusand relatedinfrastructureprojectsareonereasonforthelimitedimpactsoftherecession.Recovery willbeslow,partlybecausegovernmentswillhavetolimitspendingandinvestmentsafter2011 toreducedeficitsanddebtaccumulatedduringtherecession. Majorprojectsareabigpartofthestory.ProjectcancellationsinNewBrunswickwillremove importantopportunities.InNovaScotiatherearenumerousandsmallerprojectsin government,manufacturing,utilitiesandresourceinitiativesthatwillpromptgrowthduringthe recovery.Jobsarecreatedandlabourmarketsimpactedfirstbythestartupofmajor constructionprojectsandthenbytheoperationsofnewmanufacturing,mining,andutility facilities. TheeconomiccyclehasbeenmuchmorevolatileinNewfoundlandandLabrador.Weakexports andhousingmarketspromptedadeeprecessionin2009.Butprospectsforrecoveryarealso goodasthereareseveralmajorprojectsplannedthatwillboosttheeconomyin2010and beyond.Productionschedulesforseveralmajorresourceoperationswillalsostopandstartthe provincialeconomyoverthescenarioperiod. DemographicfactorsplayacommonroleacrossallofAtlanticCanada.Olderageprofilesand verylimitedpopulationgrowthwillrestricteacheconomy.Muchwilldependonimmigrationas asourceofnewworkers.Thesedemographicchangeswillreduceunemploymentandlimit recruitingopportunitiesformanyemployers.Tightlabourmarketswillbecomemorecommon. ItisnotyetpossibletotrackindividualengineeringmarketsineachoftheAtlanticProvinces. StatisticsCanadaCensusreported9,350engineersinAtlanticCanadain2006andgrowthto 9,600by2009basedontrendstakenfromtheLabourForceSurvey.

ExhibitEAtlanticCanada LabourMarket Total,AllEngineers 2006c (Census) 9350 2009e (EstimatedTrend) 9605
Source:StatisticsCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis

128
Total Engineers Atlantic Canada

ExhibitH1.1TotalEngineers,AtlanticCanada
120 115 110 Index2007=100 105 100 95 90 85 80
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Manufacturing GovernmentServices
KeyPoints: Employmentisdrivenbyoutputandinvestmentinkeyengineeringintensiveindustries includingmanufacturing,utilities,primaryindustries(includingmining,oilandgas), construction,government,alongwithprofessional,scientificandmanagementservices (includingengineeringconsultingservices). LongtermemploymenttrendsforengineersacrossalltheAtlanticProvincesincludes theimpactsofmajorconstructionprojectsandoperations.Forexample: o o Governmentstimulusprojectsboostactivityin2009butfadelaterinthe scenario. Manufacturing(andotherprimaryindustrieslikemining)droppedtoverylow levelsin2009,butrecoversomelostgroundby2014.
Theoverallpatternoflimitedlongtermgrowthexpectedforengineeringfrom2009to 2018partlyreflectstheeffectsofcombiningspecificprojectsthatarescheduledfor eachprovince.Theseprojectsmaywellboostlocalengineeringactivity.
129
Demographic Supply Side Measures - Total, All Engineers Graduates Entering the Labour Force* Immigrants** Replacement Demand (#)*** Replacement (% of Trend Employment)***
2007 517 140 198 2.4
2008 536 74 242 2.2
2009 426 85 224 2.2
2010 2018
(Annual Average)
521 97 214 2.4
Source;StatisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis *Equals70%ofgraduatesfromCEABprograms **Includestemporaryforeignworkersandpermanentimmigrants ***Replacementdemand=retirementandmortality
KeyPoints: Therehasbeenasteadyincreaseingraduationsfrompostgraduateprogramsandthis sourcehasdominatedthenewentrantsintoengineeringoccupations. Recentenrolmenttrendswillgenerateapeakingraduationsin2011and2012. Immigrationhasbeenpredominantlytemporaryworkersandthesenumbershavebeen decliningsince1999. TheageprofileforengineersinAtlanticCanadaisolderthaninotherprovinces. Risingreplacementdemandrelatedtoretirementwillrestrictthesupplyofexperienced engineersandaddtorecruitingdifficulties.Wheredemandforengineeringserviceshits abruptpeaksrelatedtoprojects,demandmaybemetthroughoutsideconsulting services.
130
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 100
ExcessSupply AtlanticTotalEngineers
6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% Percent
KeyPoints: During2010employmentgainsintherecoverycoincidewithabrieflullingraduates fromlocalprogramsandexcesssupplyfallsbelownormallevels. Excesssupplyjumpsupin2011and2012asnewgraduatesjointhelabourmarket Laterinthescenariotrendsingraduationsandlimitedimmigrationprovidestheneeded numberofnewengineerstomeetlabourrequirements. MeasuringexcesssupplyacrossallofAtlanticCanadamightconcealspikesofdemand asbigprojectsrampuporshutdowninspecificregionsandindustries.
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Overmostoftheprojectionthenumberofgraduatesandarrivingimmigrantsexceeds labourrequirements. Labourmarketmeasurestakeconsultingactivityintoaccountthroughgeneraltrendsin professionalandscientificservices.Majorresourceandinfrastructureprojectsin AtlanticCanadawillrequireintensiveengineeringactivityatvariousperiodsinthe scenario.Resultspresentedherewouldallowforextensiveimportsoftheseservices.
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3. ConclusionsandImplications

Conclusions The conclusions drawn by this study reflect both the economic model which underpins our assessment of current and projected labour market conditions, and the important input received from validation meetings. These meetings brought an industry perspective to bear on the conclusions from the economic model. 10. It is clear that there is an asymmetry between the way that employers and engineers look at the engineering labour and the way that standard economic statistics describe that market. Both employers and engineers ascribe a high degree of importance to general business experience, and to specialized, technical experience. Indeed, experience is so important in the engineering profession that the measurement of both the supply and the demand for engineers needs to be parsed in terms of experience categories. 11. It is clear from our analysis of specific engineering labour markets that many of these markets are characterized by a surplus of recent graduates, who have little or no experience, but a shortage of experienced engineers with five or more years of practical experience and the specialized, experience-based technical skills that employers require. This concurrence of a labour surplus with a skills shortage was discussed in the reports produced by the Engineering and Technology Labour Market Study. 10 12. The difficulties that many employers experience in recruiting engineers with specific experience and skills has led to a sharp increase in the use of foreigntrained engineers brought into Canada by employers under the Temporary Foreign Worker program. Increasing the supply of domestic graduates, by itself, will not address employers skills needs. New graduates are not a substitute for experienced engineers with 5-10 years of experience and specialized technical skills. 13. The difficulty that many employers have in recruiting engineers with specialized skills and experience also has led to an increase in off-shoring. Our analysis suggests that skill shortages are at least as important as cost factors, if not more important, in driving the increase in off-shoring. 14. The traditional academic fields of study - civil, mechanical, chemical, electrical are just the starting point. As graduates move into specific industries, they evolve into aerospace, systems, transportation, structural, industrial, manufacturing, petroleum, and other specialized engineers, to list but a few examples. In some
10
Engineering and Technology Labour Market Study, Final Report, Engineers Canada and the Canadian Council of Technicians and Technology, May, 2009. See Page 1 and Page 8 http://etlms.engineerscanada.ca/e/pub_pr.cfm
132
cases, university curricula now reflect these specializations. In most cases, however, specializations are developed through experience. 15. Standard economic statistics which measure supply and demand in the engineering labour market attach too little weight to experience and to specialized skills and too much weight to generic qualifications. In this report, therefore, it is common for our analysis to show a balance between supply and demand (a 3 ranking) for the four large (and generic fields), namely, civil, electrical, mechanical and chemical, but shortages ( a 4 ranking) in the more specialized fields, e.g., petroleum engineers. 16. The consulting sector which employs a large share of professional engineers plays a critical role in meeting industrys needs for specialized skills and developing those skills within the profession. Consulting also promotes the mobility of these skills across regions and industries. 17. Within the consulting sector, the internationalization of engineering services has taken on increased importance. This was described in the report Canadas Consulting Engineering Sector in the International Economy that was part of the Engineering and Technology Labour Market Study.11 A central finding of that study was that the internationalization of engineering services increased the premium on specialized skills. 18. This report points to three challenges for the engineering profession. The first, and most important, is addressing the graduation-to-work transition, or more specifically, the chronic and serious under-supply of junior engineer jobs which are also integral to the internship or EIT programs of the provincial and territorial associations. This situation sets up a contradiction between the interests of each firm and the engineering industry as a whole. It is rational business strategy for an individual employer to require 5-10 years experience for new hires, but at the system level, this business strategy leads to the serious problems that now confront the profession and employers as a whole. There are no simple solutions to the graduation-to-work transition challenge, but addressing this challenge must now become a priority for the profession. This may have implications for industry/profession relations, government/profession relations, the structuring of university programs, and the regulation of professional practices. The second challenge is to better understand the business and specialized skill needs of industry and reflect those needs in traditional undergraduate and graduate programs, in combined MBA-engineering programs, in engineering management programs, and in continuing professional development programs. The profession
11
See, http://etlms.engineerscanada.ca/media/Canada's%20Consulting%20Engineering%20Sector%20in%20the% 20International%20Economy1.pdf Prism Economics and Analysis
133
may also need to consider options for credentialing specialized skills, as has been done in other professions, e.g., law. The third challenge is to facilitate the movement of experienced engineers from declining sectors when they have lost their jobs into growing sectors. Engineers who have lost their jobs owing economic restructuring have considerable business experience, but are likely to lack some of the specialized skills that are needed by growing sectors. Improvements to the next update might add insight in these areas and better meet user needs. Changes might include; Added market details that track more specializations and new disciplines including; o Engineering Managers Extended consultations with stakeholders and o The addition of rankings that track conditions for experienced engineers based on stakeholder input. Added details tracking licensing and registrations in the Provincial Associations including; o Engineer in training programs and other internships o Permanent immigrants with engineering qualifications and temporary foreign workers securing permanent status Added details linking employment to engineering consulting including improved links from key industry drivers, imports and exports of engineering services.
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Monitoring the pulse of the

Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018

Prism Economics and Analysis

Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018

Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018

Prism Economics and Analysis

Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018

Rankings & Description

Prism Economics and Analysis

Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018

Prism Economics and Analysis

Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018

Prism Economics and Analysis

Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018

Prism Economics and Analysis

Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018

Prism Economics and Analysis

Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018

Prism Economics and Analysis

Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018

Attheendofthescenario,from2014to2018,growthislimitedbutreplacement demandsforretirementsriseandimmigrationisneededtosustainworkforcelevels. o Retirementswilldominatelabourrequirementslaterinthescenarioandthis willaggravatedifficultiesrecruitingexperiencedengineers.

Prism Economics and Analysis

Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018

Tightermarketsforcivilengineersarerelatedtotheolderageprofileandhigher retirementdemandsforthisoccupation. Somevariationsinthepatternofenrolmentsandgraduationsmaytemporarilytighten orweakentheothermarkets.

Labour Market Rankings All Engineers

Therecessionhadamildimpactonjobcreationwhilegraduationscontinuetorise. Recoveryisstrongenoughtotightenthemarketsasmigrationhasfallen. Overmostoftheprojection,thenumberofgraduatesandarrivingimmigrantsexceeds labourrequirements.

Prism Economics and Analysis

Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018

Prism Economics and Analysis

Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018

4 See, http://etlms.engineerscanada.ca/media/Canada's%20Consulting%20Engineering%20Sector%20in%20the% 20International%20Economy1.pdf

Prism Economics and Analysis

Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018

Prism Economics and Analysis

Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018

Prism Economics and Analysis

Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018

Occupation by Region Engineers Canada Atlantic Quebec Ontario Manitoba SK Alberta BC

Source: Prism Economics & Analysis

= Labour Market Tracking

Prism Economics and Analysis

Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018

Prism Economics and Analysis

Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018

Engineering Labour Market Tracking System, Summary of Main Components

Prism Economics and Analysis

Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018

Rankings & Description

Moderate supply pressures

Prism Economics and Analysis

Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018

Readerswhoareinterestedinmoredetailsoneachcomponentofthemarketassessmentare referredtotheAppendices.AppendixAincludesadescriptionoftheCenterforSpatial Economic,January2010Provincialforecaststhatserveasthebasisfortheindustrydetailand engineeringemploymentdrivers.

Prism Economics and Analysis

Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018

Prism Economics and Analysis

Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018

Prism Economics and Analysis

Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018

Prism Economics and Analysis

Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018

Prism Economics and Analysis

Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018

Source: Statistics Canada, Prism Economics and Analysis

Prism Economics and Analysis

Source:statisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis Equals70%ofgraduatesfromCEABprograms Includestemporaryforeignworkersandpermanentimmigrants Replacementdemand=retirementandmortality

Source:StatisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis Equals70%ofgraduatesfromCEABprograms Includestemporaryforeignworkersandpermanentimmigrants Replacementdemand=retirementandmortality

Source:StatisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis Equals70%ofgraduatesfromCEABprograms Includestemporaryforeignworkersandpermanentimmigrants Replacementdemand=retirementandmortality

Source:StatisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis Equals70%ofgraduatesfromCEABprograms Includestemporaryforeignworkersandpermanentimmigrants Replacementdemand=retirementandmortality