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David H. Shinn Elliott School of International Affairs George Washington University 27 October 2011
• • • • • • Begins independence with high expectations. Euphoria will prevail over short-term. Faces huge internal challenges. Faces huge external challenges. Has about year to make significant progress. Alternative is failed state.
• • • • • • 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). National Congress Party (NCP). Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM). Shared national government for 6 years. Goal to make unity attractive. CPA established governments in north and south. • Shared oil revenue 50-50.
• • • • Separate northern and southern armies. Joint units assigned to sensitive border areas. North/south had separate command structures. Withdrawal of 91,000 northern troops from south. • National civil service positions split 70/30 favor of north. • Special provisions for sensitive areas. • Includes Abyei, Southern Kordofan & Blue Nile.
• • • • • Shari’a law applicable only in north. North and south had own flags. 2005 death of SPLM leader John Garang. Ended prospect of north/south unity in south. North failed to take steps encouraging unity.
WORLD’S NEWEST COUNTRY
• • • • • • • January 2011 South Sudan secession referendum. Overwhelming vote in favor. 9 July 2011 independence South Sudan. Population now 8.2 million. Slightly smaller than Texas. Landlocked; 15 percent is swamp. Borders Central African Republic, DRC, Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia & Sudan.
Salva Kiir & Omar Bashir
WORLD’S NEWEST COUNTRY
• More than 60 local languages. • Majority animist, minority Christian, some Muslims. • 90% population lives in poverty. • 27% adult literacy rate. • 2 airports with paved runways. • 4% agricultural land cultivated.
UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS)
• • • • • Became operational 9 July 2011. Mandate one year renewable. 7,000 military personnel. 900 civilian police. Foster state-building and economic development • Conflict resolution and protect civilians. • Strengthen security and justice sectors.
The Oil Conundrum
• 50-50 oil revenue split is finished. • 75% Sudan’s oil in South Sudan. • 90-95% oil field personnel are northerners. • Pipelines and refinery in north. • Oil Revenue 98% of South Sudan budget. • South Sudan now markets its oil.
The Oil Conundrum
• South Sudan ships oil through northern infrastructure. • South Sudan pays pipeline/terminal fees to north and private companies. • Receives all revenue from its oil. • Khartoum markets its 25% share. • Khartoum experienced huge revenue loss. • North-south negotiating revenue sharing.
The Oil Conundrum
• South Sudan offered to pay standard pipeline fees. • Khartoum wants much higher fees. • South Sudan says Khartoum threatened to close pipeline. • Khartoum wants agreement by end of October. • Deal currently stalemated. • Alternative pipeline through Kenya or Ethiopia. • Would take years to construct.
• • • • • • • Located on north-south border. Contested by both sides. Resident Ngok Dinka support South Sudan. Nomadic Misseriya support Khartoum. Referendum on future never occurred. Limited oil in Abyei. Khartoum’s main interest support for Misseriya.
• • • • Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) invaded in May 2011. 100,000 Ngok Dinka fled to South Sudan. SPLM properly called foul. Both sides agreed to admit Ethiopian peacekeepers. • Only about half of 4,000 peacekeepers present. • SAF and South Sudan troops still in place. • Both sides accepted joint oversight committee.
Other Border Issues
• 20% of north/south border still not agreed. • Constitutes 5 different pieces of border. • South Sudan wants to demarcate 80% agreed upon. • If no agreement on 20%, wants binding arbitration. • South Sudan issued map claiming large chunk of Kenya. • Likely to cause friction with Kenya.
• Led by Yasir Arman; opposed Bashir for president. • SPLM/N split from SPLM on 8 September. • Became opposition party in north. • Khartoum banned SPLM/N days later. • Banned 16 other parties linked to South Sudan. • Effectively have “new south” in north.
• SPLM/N called publicly for ouster of Bashir. • Linked to opposition groups in Darfur and Nuba Mountains. • All of them trying to topple Bashir. • Receives support from individuals in South Sudan. • Probably supported by SPLM in South Sudan. • Several thousand SPLM/N troops in Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan. • Come from former 9th and 10th SPLA divisions.
• • • • • • North of border, but disputed by north/south. Rich in oil; 115,000 barrels per day. Nuba people sympathetic to SPLM. SAF tried to disarm SPLM/N troops in June. Up to 150,000 persons fled homes since June. NCP won governorship in disputed election.
SPLA/North Forces in Southern Kordofan
• • • • • • • Fighting between SPLM/N and SAF. Khartoum vowed to crush rebellion. SAF reportedly using aerial bombing. SPLM/N asked US to impose no-fly zone. US demurred. Military stalemate. SPLM/N calling for overthrow of Bashir.
• North of border, but disputed by north/south. • Not oil producing area. • Population split on support for Khartoum and SPLM/N. • SPLM/N troops did not disarm according to agreement. • SPLM/N candidate Malik Agar won governorship. • September SPLM/N troops loyal to Agar attacked SAF.
• Khartoum sacked Agar. • Replaced Agar with NCP military governor. • Khartoum recruiting friendly Rufa’a and Fellata militias. • Trying to crush opposition. • Military stalemate. • Fighting displaced 100,000 persons. • 25,000 refugees fled to Ethiopia.
• Seven South Sudan armed groups oppose SPLM/A. • Claim to fight SPLM/A corruption. • Some led by former SPLA leaders. • Some allegedly have ties to Khartoum. • Marginalization is driving these groups. • Most are not significant threat. • South Sudan Liberation Movement/Army is Nuer group. • Objective to bring down government.
• • • • Lt. Gen. George Athor most significant threat. Former senior SPLA commander. Padeng Dinka closely linked to Nuer. Athor failed to win election for governor of Jonglei State. • Claimed SPLM rigged election. • Took his followers to bush. • South Sudan claims Khartoum supporting rebel groups.
• • • • • • Much of South Sudan population pastoral. Long history of cattle raids in South Sudan. Caused many deaths in past. Recent resumption of attacks. Luo Nuer recently killed 400 Murle. Murle then killed 600 Luo Nuer; stole 25,000 cattle. • Cattle raid in Unity State left 30 dead.
Aftermath of Cattle Raid
• • • • • • South Sudan is awash in small arms. Tribes better armed than police. Police often run from these conflicts. Culture of violence developing. Traditional conflict resolution not working. South Sudan becoming broken society.
SS National Army
• • • • • • • Need to demobilize many South Sudan soldiers. Most have no civilian skills. Need vocational training. Need army pension program. Will be reluctance to downsize. Could lead to strain on national debt. Unplanned demobilization equals security threat.
Demobilization of SPLM
• • • • • • • Half of budget goes to salaries. 90% of military budget is for salaries. Some salaries go to non-existent people. Not sustainable budgetary program. South Sudan received $8-10 billion in oil revenue. No transparency in oil revenue. Except for salaries, almost nothing to show for $8-10 billion.
• • • • • • Much of it disappeared. Officials have millions in bank accounts. Corruption in contracting and tax collection. Payments for illegally acquired land. Capital flight out of country. Obama raised corruption issue with South Sudan president. • If corruption continues, aid donors will hold back.
Lack of Development
• • • • • South Sudan inherited terrible situation. Minimal infrastructure. Inadequate numbers of trained persons. Significant poverty. Some 340,000 southerners arrived from north. • Development concentrated in Juba. • Leads to complaints in rest of South Sudan.
South Sudan Road
Lack of Development
• Most food imported from Uganda. • South Sudan will produce half of food needs in 2011. • 36% of population moderately or severely food insecure. • South Sudan facing chronic food shortages. • Could be 1.2 million severely food insecure in 2012. • Need major push to develop agriculture.
• • • • • • SPLM is authoritarian party. Still shifting from rebel group to ruling party. Sees opposition as treasonous. Little tolerance for opposition parties. Opposition parties are weak anyway. Raises questions about future of democracy.
Typical Peaceful South Sudan Village (Hopefully, this is the future)