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MOEF_NATCOM; 14th October 2009

Vulnerability of Indian Agriculture to Climate Change: Current State of Knowledge
P.K. Aggarwal and others Indian Agricultural Research Institute New Delhi

Climate change and agriculture in India: ICAR Research Network
A Network on Climate Change and agriculture launched in 2004 for studies on impact assessment, adaptation and mitigation options Current strength: 23 institutes; > 100 scientists Funding: ICAR Many more centers of research now.

soybean and GHG inventory in NATCOM1 . wheat. Pulses. Vegetables Plantation Crops Coconut. Potato. apple Fisheries Marine Fresh water corals Special Ecosystems Rainfed Coastal Hill Crop residue burning Only rice.ICAR Network on Climate Change and Agriculture: Thematic areas ICAR Network on Climate change and Agriculture GHG emissions and mitigation Live stock Live stock Cows Buffalo Poultry Soil Fertility Erosion Water Rice Upland Lowland Irrigated Deepwater Soil Carbon Vulnerability Crops Wheat. Paddy. Cotton.

Impact assessment of climate change: Characterizing crop response to carbon dioxide .

Impact assessment of climate change: Characterizing crop response to temperature. 2009 .TGTs Source: Singh et al.

Impact assessment of climate change: Process.based simulation models .

mustard. Possibly some improvement in yields of chickpea. Less loss in potato. and potato by 3-7%. . Productivity of most crops to decrease only marginally by 2020 but by 10-40% by 2100. rabi maize. wheat. A 1oC increase in temperature may reduce yields of wheat. and coconut in west coast. legumes and oilseeds by 10-20%. Much higher losses at higher temperatures. groundnut. sorghum and millets.Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture Increase in CO2 to 550 ppm increases yields of rice. mustard and vegetables in north-western India due to reduced frost damage. soybean.

.5 million tons of milk by 2020 Imbalance in food trade due to positive impacts on Europe and N. and energy requirement for livestock Animal distress due to heat. and harvests Increased water. and insects Increasing sea and river water temperatures are likely to affect fish breeding.Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture Increased droughts and floods are likely to increase production variability Considerable effect on microbes.America. effects on reproduction Loss of 1. pathogens. migration. shelter. and negative impacts on us.

Impact of climate change on wheat 80 Wheat production. million tons 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 2000 2020 Year 2050 2080 Control Adapted .

% 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2020 Year 2050 .Impact of climate change on potato 16 Loss in potato production.

Impact of climate change on length of growing period in rainfed areas .

Impact on apples: Declining yields in Himachal due to inadequate chilling 8 Yield (Tons) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 19 80 -8 19 1 82 -8 19 3 84 -8 19 5 86 -8 19 7 88 -8 19 9 90 -9 19 1 92 -9 19 3 94 -9 19 5 96 -9 19 7 98 20 -9 9 00 -2 00 1 Years Source: HPKVV/ICAR network .

Impact of climate change on coconut yields -35 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 +5 +10 +15 +20 +25 +30 +35 +40 +45 RELATIVE YIELD DEVIATION Districts with white colour were not simulated Source: Naresh Kumar et al. 2008 .

2 2 1.6 1.Basmati Grain elongation ratio Source: IARI/ICAR network .8 1.2 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 Mean temperature during grain growth.4 1.5 L/B ratio 4 3.5 3 2.5 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 Mean temperature during grain growth.5 5 4.4 2.Impact on quality: Effect of temperature on basmati rice quality 5. C PS-2 P-1121 S. C PS-2 P-1121 S. Basmati 2.

50% >50% Source: CMFRI/ICAR network .10% 10 % .1% .1% 1% .Impact on fish: Extension of northern boundary of oil sardine.25% 1987-1996 1997-2006 25% . The colored lines indicate percentage of All India oil sardine production 1961-1976 1977-1986 0.

Impact of climate change on milk production: Temperature-Humidity Index 13 Milk yield. l/ha 12 11 10 9 8 7 50 60 70 THI 80 90 Source: NDRI/ICAR network .

Uncertainties Errors in climate models. crop models and data used No links with future water availability No consideration of weather extremes Future technological developments and socio-economic scenarios .

capital. water. and labour from industry and urban settlements Increasing variability of global supplies. and prices .Adapting agriculture to climate change: Need to consider other challenges for future food security Climate change: A key driver for agriculture in 21st century Increasing demand for food >276 million tons by 2021 as against current production of 230 million tons now Increasing competition for resources For land.

changing land use.… Nature of agriculture has changed . diversification of income sources. Traditional coping strategies: mixed cropping.Adaptation in agriculture is a continuous process Agriculture diversity is a manifestation of climatic adaptation Farmers/society have always adapted when allowed by technology availability.from subsistence oriented to market oriented: Need for other adaptation strategies . and economics. migration. their socioeconomic capacity.

Increasing adaptive capacity of agriculture to climate change Concerns: Changes in mean temperature and rainfall Variability in weather/climate. particularly unpredictable shortterm weather extremes .

Strengthen research for enhancing adaptive capacity -varieties. credit for transition to adaptation technologies 5. pest surveillance -for improved assessments: mechanism for collection and dissemination of weather. Improve land and water management -technologies for resource conservation and use efficiency 4. insurance.How to adapt agriculture to climate change? 1. Enable policies and regional cooperation -incentives to farmers for resource conservation and use efficiency. market links 3. resource conservation technologies. pricing of resources. Assist farmers in coping with current climatic risks -weather services. soil. water and agricultural data . Intensify food production systems -technology and input delivery systems. community banks for seed and fodder 2. agro-advisories.

Increased climatic variability could cause significant fluctuations in production even in short-term. Adaptation practices take time to become effective. Need to act now. .g. policy and financial support. In short-term effects may be small (preliminary results. A crop variety. Adaptation strategies can help minimize negative impacts. e. better field data and models needed). Costs of adaptation are less understood but likely to be high. takes 10-20 yrs to develop. These need greater research.Conclusions Climate change is likely to reduce yields of most crops in long-term. costs of inaction could be even higher.