FED SURVEY - Main Street

CNBC Viewers & CNBC.com Users October 31, 2011

These survey results represent the opinions of almost 3000 CNBC viewers and CNBC.com users. They (Main Street) responded to CNBCs invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were collected on October 27 through October 31, 2011. Participants were not required to answer every question. Results are also shown for identical questions asked of professional economists, money managers, and analysts (Wall Street) in our monthly CNBC Fed Survey. This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those who did accept our invitation.

1. Will there be another Federal Reserve quantitative easing program in the next year (12 months)?
Main Street 0% 10% 20% Wall Street 30% 40% 50% 60%

52%
Yes

48%

34%
No

46%

14%
Don't Know/Unsure

7%

FED SURVEY of CNBC Viewers & CNBC.com Users October 31, 2011 Page 1 of 9

FED SURVEY - Main Street

CNBC Viewers & CNBC.com Users October 31, 2011

2. How would you characterize the Fed's current monetary policy?

Main Street
0% 10% 20%

Wall Street
30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

66%
Too accommodative

34%

23%
Just right

48%

7%
Too restrictive

10%

4%
Dont know/unsure

8%

FED SURVEY of CNBC Viewers & CNBC.com Users October 31, 2011 Page 2 of 9

FED SURVEY - Main Street

CNBC Viewers & CNBC.com Users October 31, 2011

3. What grade would you give Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke?

Main Street 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Wall Street 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

17% 21% 19%

46%
18% 20% 18% 11% 27%

Main St Average: 1.80 Wall St Average: 2.78

0%
1% 2%
Numerical average based on A=4, B=3, C=2, D=1, F=0

Don't know/unsure

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FED SURVEY - Main Street

CNBC Viewers & CNBC.com Users October 31, 2011

4. Should the Fed change its guidance for how long it will keep interest rates low from a calendar date to economic targets, such as inflation, unemployment, or nominal GDP?
Main Street Wall Street

80%

70%

67%
60%

57%
50%

40%

36%
30%

27%
20%

10%

6%
0%

7%

Yes

No

Don't Know/Unsure

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FED SURVEY - Main Street

CNBC Viewers & CNBC.com Users October 31, 2011

5. What target or targets should the Fed use?

Main Street 0% 20% 40% Wall Street 60% 80% 100%

71%
Inflation

86%

34%
Unemployment

41%

33%
Nominal GDP

50%

12%
Other

5%

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FED SURVEY - Main Street

CNBC Viewers & CNBC.com Users October 31, 2011

7. In the next 12 months, what percent probability do you place on the U.S. entering recession? (0%=No chance of recession, 100%=Certainty of recession)
35% Main Street Wall Street

Average Probability of Recession

30%

Main Street: 49.6% Wall Street: 25.5%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

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FED SURVEY - Main Street

CNBC Viewers & CNBC.com Users October 31, 2011

8. What is the probability, in your opinion, that each of the following countries will default on its debt in the next three years? (0%=No chance of default, 100%=Certainty of default)
Main Street 0% Portugal 10% 20% 30% Wall Street 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

59% 47% 52% 33% 59% 28% 81% 84% 57% 26% 12% 2% 24% 4% 19% 2% 20% 3%

Ireland

Italy

Greece

Spain

Germany

France

United States

United Kingdom

FED SURVEY of CNBC Viewers & CNBC.com Users October 31, 2011 Page 7 of 9

FED SURVEY - Main Street

CNBC Viewers & CNBC.com Users October 31, 2011

9. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index will be on ?

Main Street 1,400 1,350 1,300 1,250 Wall Street

1358 1316 1264 1217

1,200
1,150 1,100 December 31, 2011

June 30, 2012

10.

What do you expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will be on ?
Main Street Wall Street

3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5%

2.25%

2.45%

2.53%

2.77%

0.0%
December 31, 2011 June 30, 2012

FED SURVEY of CNBC Viewers & CNBC.com Users October 31, 2011 Page 8 of 9

FED SURVEY - Main Street

CNBC Viewers & CNBC.com Users October 31, 2011

11.

What is your forecast for the year-over-year percentage change in real U.S. GDP?
Main Street Wall Street

3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0%

2.37% 1.79% 1.89% 1.72%

0.5%
0.0% 2011 2012

12.

Where do you expect the fed funds target rate will be on ? Main Street 0.0% 0.2% 0.33% 0.12% 0.46% 0.22% 0.70% 0.35% Wall Street 0.4% 0.6% 0.8%

Dec 31 2011

June 30 2012

Dec 31 2012

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