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Module: Marketing Research- June, 2011 Time: Weeks 16 -17
Day 1: Case Question 1: Theme Park (Jun 2009 - M 10)
June 2009 Examiner's Solution
Case 1 – Answer Base 1. Explain to the managers of the theme park the value they might derive from multivariate regression analysis of the data. (15 marks) The relevant module is Module 10. Multivariate regression analysis will help the managers of the theme park to identify what factors are important to customers during their visit to the theme park and the relative contribution of these key factors to the development of customer satisfaction. So, for example, multivariate regression analysis can show whether queue management actually affects customer satisfaction and to what extent compared with other variables, e.g. staff friendliness. Multivariate regression analysis allows the development of a predictive equation which shows what changes in overall customer satisfaction may be anticipated as a result of, for example, initiatives to reduce queue waiting time. This will allow the theme park managers to gauge future investment priorities, if development of increased levels of customer satisfaction is a key business objective. The use of interval scales in the market research study allows the use of the multiple regression procedure for the analysis of the theme park market research data. Multiple regression analysis finds the weighted linear combination of independent variables, e.g. queue management, safety, etc., that has the maximum correlation with the dependent variable, which is overall customer satisfaction. In undertaking this analysis, clearly the value of information produced is very much dependent on inclusion of the independent variables in the market research questionnaire. A good student answer will note that if there is doubt that the set of independent variables researched is not fully inclusive in terms of what is important in delivering customer satisfaction in a theme park environment, it may justify qualitative research to identify what these key variables are. If other variables are at work, then the quantitative research must be re-commissioned.
2. Are these data helpful in determining investment priorities to increase customer satisfaction levels in future? Explain your reasoning. (15 marks) The ‘regression function’ takes the form Y = a + b1 X1 + b2 X2 + … + b n X n The computer output suggests the following equation for customer satisfaction: Customer satisfaction = 1.0 + (0.6 × Queue management) + (0.3 × Staff friendliness) − (0.3 × Security procedures) So, for example, for every scale point that queue management increases, holding other variables constant, customer satisfaction levels increase by 0.6 units. A good student answer will note that, interestingly, for every scale point increase in security procedures, customer satisfaction decreases by 0.3 units. To understand whether these variables are statistically significant, it is necessary to test the significance of the regression coefficients. The individual values of the t-statistic for each of the variables can be compared with the critical t-statistic at the 5% level of significance, i.e. 1.96. Since the calculated t-statistic for queue management (2.73) and staff friendliness (2.50) are greater than the critical t-value of 1.96 at the 5% level of significance, it is concluded that both queue management and staff friendliness are statistically related to customer satisfaction. In considering future investment priorities, improved queue management is likely to have more impact on customer satisfaction than programmes to increase staff friendliness. This of course only holds in the current equation. The values of the coefficients will all change when safety is excluded. A good student answer will note that security procedures are observed to have a negative effect on customer satisfaction, but that the findings are not statistically significant at the 5% level and, therefore, security procedures should be excluded from the regression equation. The regression analysis should be run again and the variables tested for statistical significance. As noted above only queue management, staff friendliness and security procedures have been considered in the multiple regression analysis. If it is the case that other unidentified variables affect customer satisfaction (and the adjusted R square would tend to support this thinking as it suggests that only 40% of the variation in customer satisfaction is explained by queue management, staff friendliness and security procedures), then the theme park managers should investigate what these other variables might be and their relative impact on customer satisfaction levels.
To do so the theme park managers should undertake qualitative research (to identify the key variables) and then commission a further quantitative study to provide ratings across all variables together with measures of customer satisfaction.
June 2009 Selected Student Answer
Case 1 Solution: Theme Park 1. Explain to the managers of the theme park the value they might derive from multivariate regression analysis of the data. Multivariate regression analysis (MRA) is a statistical method of finding whether there is a relationship between independent and dependent variables. This is the equation for multivariate regression: Y = b0 + b1 X1 + b2 X2 + b3 X3 + … + b n X n In this case, the MRA will find out the relationship between customer satisfaction with a different set of independent variables, such as queue management, staff friendliness and security procedures. If we find out, for example, that there is a relationship between customer satisfaction and queue management and/or staff friendliness then the manager might have to consider improving the queue management and staff friendliness, but if we find out there is no relationship between customer satisfaction with security procedures then we might consider trying to establish whether there are other independent variables which might affect or have a relationship with customer satisfaction. Multivariate regression analysis helps to analyse the information and it is one of the quantitative research technique. Also there is a need to explain the regression correlation (r) which –1 < r < +1.
o o o
r = 0 This means there is no relationship between x and y r ≥ 1 This means there is a relationship between x and y which means if x increases by 1 then y will increase by 1. r ≥ –1 This means there is a relationship between x and y which means if x increase by 1 then y will decrease by 1.
Suppose regression analysis, with customer satisfaction as the dependent variable, produced the following output: Aspects operation Staff friendliness of Coefficient Standard error 0.22 0.12 0.27 t-statistic 2.73 2.50 –1.11
Queue management 0.6 0.3 Security procedures –0.3
we have to design a proper questionnaire which includes the preliminary considerations. and –1. The survey can be postal survey. personal survey/interview or telephone survey. status. age. In analysing the variable by using regression coefficient analysis we will first set: o o H0 = 0 (No relationship between x and y) In this case customer satisfaction and either queue management/staff friendliness/security procedures HA ≠ 0 (relationship between x and y) As % confidence level = 1.11 for Security Procedures. to determine an investment we might have to consider other factors or undertake other types of research because it may give information which will be more accurate for the manager to make a decision. However. In this case. In this case we might use stratified sampling. social and economy.4 2. 2.Constant Adjusted R square 1. It means that if queue management is improved and staff are more friendly then there will be increase in customer satisfaction. Moreover. First we might consider sample size because a bigger sample gives more accuracy. Also it have to provide closed-end and open-end question which will give more opportunity to understand feelings and attitudes. and. then conduct the quantitative research. Are these data helpful in determining investment priorities to increase customer satisfaction levels in future? Explain your reasoning. If we are using these data to analyse the regression coefficient then we can say that queue management and staff friendliness have a relationship with customer satisfaction. sex.73 (for Queue management. Also we need to consider whether to use probability or non-probability sampling.1 t-statistic = 2.96 Degree of freedom = 17. 4 . we might decide to use postal survey and personal survey.0 0. Then we have to conduct a survey which is one method of quantitative research but before that we might have to provide a qualitative research in which we might set up a focus group or in-depth interview to understand feelings and attitudes.50 for Staff Friendliness.
Day 2: Case Question 1: Electronic Waste (December 2007 – M10) December 2007 Examiner's Solution 5 .
it is possible to draw some statistically sound conclusions from the research. The richness of the analysis will depend largely on the questions asked 6 . therefore. tells us little about the effectiveness of the Amnesty generally but. assuming satisfactory resolution of the concerns relating to the potential for sampling and non-sampling error in the implementation of the research. the marketing research undertaken by Marson Ltd was conducted amongst only those companies taking part in the Amnesty event. or did interviewers have freedom to choose their interviewees?) The layout of the site and the location of interviewers (for example. The validity of the findings may be affected by the sampling method used. was there more than one entry point to Marson’s site or site office? Did large trucks use a separate access point? Were all companies visiting the site on the day equally likely to be interviewed or not? Were interviews evenly spread over the day or did interviewers simply do their assigned quota and leave?) Was the individual interviewed the right person to speak to about such matters? There is a big difference between the views of the van driver and those of top management! The number and treatment of spoiled interviews. the research undertaken on the Amnesty day may have been subject to nonsampling errors which may also have affected the validity of the research. The level of supervision of the interviewers and whether attempts were made to back-check a sample of the interviews. attitudes and behaviour of the wider population of companies located in and around Greenville. it may well be worthwhile to undertake a wider study to ascertain these. for example: o o The market research was conducted by face-to-face interview but no information is provided on whether these were undertaken by professionally trained interviewers – were questions asked in a leading way? Were responses recorded correctly? Did any tabulation errors arise during data input and analysis? A good student answer will note that the focus of the market research is only on those taking part in the Amnesty and.Case 1 – Answer Base 1. were there strict rules to interview every ‘n’th visitor. for example: o o o o o The way the sample was drawn (for example. the key findings of the research can only be considered in this context. In addition. the views of non-participants may be quite different to those of participants. The market research. therefore. What does the market research tell us about the effectiveness of the Amnesty? (15 marks) The market research gives us only limited insight into the effectiveness of the Amnesty because: o o the findings of the research study are not representative of the views. Sampling error may have arisen from.
for example. For a particular cell. Of interest.and careful profiling of the companies participating in the research (details of which we do not have). o o o o o o o (15 marks) A chi-square test can be used to test whether a statistically significant association exists between size of company and awareness that some electrical equipment can be recycled. Is there a statistically significant association between size of company and awareness that some electronic equipment can be recycled? Explain the implications of your answer. The chi-square statistic is calculated by the formula: where O i is the observed value and E i is the expected value. assuming in this case that there is no difference between the backgrounds of respondents. the expected value is calculated as: Awareness that some electronic equipment can be recycled Company size Large (O = observed) (E = expected) Small (O = observed) (E = expected) Total Not aware 862 759 1018 1122 1880 Aware 288 391 682 578 970 2850 1700 Total 1150 7 . might be to analyse by type and size of company: type of equipment handed in average amount of equipment handed in distance travelled to the recycling site difference in awareness of recycling possibilities willingness to pay for disposal/recycling proportion of companies who clean own PC systems before hand-in proportion of companies seeking security reassurances 2.
can be recycled and have second life market potential. this research finding may reflect another problem in the way the sample was drawn for the survey.84 and because 69. The research appeared to be simply to confirm in 8 . The chi-square test reveals that the difference in awareness is statistically significant. The chi-square statistic at 1 degree of freedom at the 5% level is 3. their views cannot be held to be representative of those held by senior management of the company.We hypothesise that there is no relationship between awareness that some electronic equipment can be recycled and company size. December 2007 Selected Student Answer Case 1 Solution: Electronic Waste 1. not knowledgeable about such matters. the difference noted in the sample is statistically significant. i. the individual visiting the Marson site and interviewed on Amnesty day may be well down the decision-making hierarchy and. particularly personal computers. are not aware that some electronic equipment can be recycled. In the case in question. The method employed to conduct the research on the day of the amnesty was based on face-to-face interviews.84.46 > 3. In large companies waste management is likely to be a delegated responsibility. It may well be the case that the involvement of more people in waste management issues in larger companies makes targeting of messages about recycling opportunities more difficult and that a multi media strategy is required to reach all of the individuals concerned. therefore. and 74% of large companies. What does the market research tell us about the effectiveness of the Amnesty? In conducting any marketing research it is always important to clearly define what the objective of the research is. A good student answer will note the importance of this finding in terms of the methods used to communicate recycling opportunities.e. The research findings indicate that 59% of small companies. However we are not sure of the questions on the structured research questionnaire that were asked. A random sample was taken. the aim of the amnesty was to publicise that irresponsible disposal of electronic waste is bad for the environment and that a lot of electronic equipment. It was felt the electronic recycling companies could do much more to raise awareness of proper disposal of electronic waste. On the other hand. However it must be noted that these were the persons who attended and a good result of the research would have considered a population frame that included other persons in the community who may have had a different view or a suggestion not thought about by the recycling company. The market research informs us that all those interviewed felt the amnesty was a good idea.
The population units and boundaries were previously touched on. The analysis of the report is also important bearing in mind the objectives that were outlined. a hypothesis can be drawn. However the fact that 2850 companies handed in unwanted equipment is a success for the company (Marson Ltd). Based on the findings. Is there a statistically significant association between size of company and awareness that some electronic equipment can be recycled? Explain the implications of your answer. The sample was taken from persons who handed in unwanted electrical or electronic equipment on the day and this may have been a way of helping those persons to get rid of obsolete equipment and not necessarily that their intentions supported the objective of the researcher. The entire process must be clearly planned including the sampling method and the sample design. it is difficult to say whether the research was effective. In conclusion.the minds of the researcher that the amnesty was a good undertaking. This would have to be evaluated further by the company to see whether that consideration is one that they had thought about. 55% of the companies felt that Marson Ltd could charge companies a small fee for disposal and recycling raises an opportunity for a business venture for Marson Ltd and the research may be considered effective to some level. This is in respect to budget and related issues to the success of the research. we must remember that the interview was conducted on the day of the amnesty and only the persons who were interested enough attended. A chi-squared analysis of the data could be conducted to determine whether there is an association between the two data groups. This is usually represented as follows: HO HA – association – no association 9 . However further research will be necessary. As noted before. or by mixing with telephone interviews. The fact that 84% of the companies taking part were not aware that recycling was available informs the researcher that there is a need for more advertising and possibly promotional opportunities to ensure that the knowledge is more widespread. 68% of companies sought assurance of hard drives being checked and cleaned before recycling may be considered to give Marson Ltd extra work to be done and of course at a cost. marketing research must be undertaken in a structured manner and objectives must be clearly defined to identify the information objective. possibly by mail (since companies are involved and these are busy people). Parameters must also be set before research is undertaken. While 55% is a notable number of persons. and yet only 55% of those who attended were of the view. The market research essentially does not tell us much about the amnesty’s effectiveness because there are several unknowns in the equation. Marketing research must be undertaken to guide the decision of the manager and not simply to confirm what one wants to do. 2. A combination of focus group and a more structured survey of companies. But there is no knowledge of the population of persons (companies) with unwanted equipment on hand.
59 970 2850 1700 Total 1150 Using the formulae for expected frequency: Calculations Calculations 10 .5 1018 1121.4 1880 Aware 288 391. According to the information provided the chi-critical statistic at 1 degree of freedom at the five percent level is 3.4 682 578. Company size Large (O = observed) (E = expected) Small (O = observed) (E = expected) Total Not aware 862 758.An expected frequency can be calculated using the following formulae where: The chi-square statistic can then be calculated using the following formulae where: The chi-critical statistic is then calculated as follows – df (rows – 1) (columns – 1) where df refers to degrees of freedom.84.
84.Chi statistic at one degree of freedom is 3. a HA hypothesis can be drawn where there seems to be an association between company size and awareness.84. There needs to be greater communication between WEEE and companies.44 being higher than chi critical at 3. Day 3: Dec 2010 exam questions Case Question 1: Fruity Juice Bubbles December 2010 Examiner's Solution Case 1 Answer 11 . According to the calculations with chi-squared statistic at 69. Suggest they organise visits to all companies to inform of the standards and efforts to better ensure compliance.
The intention in focus group interviewing is not just to ascertain what people’s overall views and opinions are. The facilitator should set respondents at their ease and explain at the outset that there are no correct opinions. feel and behave in the way they do. including the role of the moderator in facilitating the discussion As far as process is concerned. where to buy.1. Advise Pete Martin on how he might use focus groups to help develop a marketing strategy for Fruity Juice Bubbles. as is the development of a clear picture of the perceived positions held by competitive brands and potential positions which offer marketing opportunity to Fruity Juice Bubbles. (10 marks) The discussion guide will include a welcome and introduction to the subject to be discussed. and in line with the aim of the research which is to help guide the development of marketing strategy. The exploratory or experiencing format looks to be most appropriate. It is appropriate to first consider what focus groups are and the general procedures used in running focus groups. approach to discussion of a subject – a method designed to reveal respondents full flow of thought in relation to the subject matter. The group moderator uses a semi-structured. the competitive set and the relative positions held by different carbonated soft drinks.). clinical and experiencing. and sometimes unstructured. (20 marks) The relevant module is Module 8. purchase occasions. The different types of focus group are: exploratory. and that each group member’s comments and opinions are valid. The focus groups will provide an opportunity for Pete to develop his understanding of target audience motivations and purchasing patterns (how often to buy. 2. only opinions Need to hear from everyone 12 . The guide to the focus group discussion for Fruity Juice Bubbles will reflect the aim of the research. etc. Prepare a focus group discussion guide for the research. developing a better understanding of the target customer is vital. the product attributes considered to be most important to the target audience (determinant attributes). the focus group method relies on self-reports from individuals in a group situation which are moderated by a professional market researcher. and potentially attractive positions for Fruity Juice Bubbles. which is to help guide the development of marketing strategy. the strength of the various positions held by competitive brands in this category. An example of a discussion group guide for Fruity Juice Bubbles would be: 1. but also to understand why people think. As far as Fruity Juice Bubbles is concerned. Opening Explain focus groups No correct opinions. Understanding consumer behaviour in the carbonated soft drinks category is key.
etc. Advise Pete Martin on how he might use focus groups to help develop a marketing strategy for Fruity Juice Bubbles. so they have to understand if the product will succeed. the company is going to launch a new product. So. 5. Talking about our case. attitudes. Nowadays. when almost each market is highly competitive and rapidly changing.? Final questions and comments Thank you for your co-operation December 2010 Selected Student Answer Case 1 Solution: Fruity Juice Bubbles 1. Any questions Carbonated soft drinks Which carbonated soft drinks are consumers aware of. etc. which have they tried and which do they like? What like/dislike about individual brands? When drink (usage occasions)? Where purchase? Who purchases? Individual item purchase or multi-pack? Value for money perceptions Image of individual brands What are the important and determinant attributes in purchase decisionmaking and reasons? Fruit Juice Bubbles Initial reaction to product concept Perception of key competition Is there a gap in the market? Distinctiveness of concept What like/dislike about concept? Likelihood of trying and perceptions of usage occasion Reaction to intended price premium Tasting opportunity – reaction to taste and range of flavours Reaction to proposed size(s) of bottle Where would expect to buy. To do this marketing research can help. As I understand from this case. Audiotapes Procedure – one person to talk at a time. 4. the product concept is already developed. so the company has to know if the customers will like it. preferences and beliefs in order to match them is essential. understanding customers’ needs and wants. The product is carbonated soft drinks. 13 . when customers needs and wants become more and more sophisticated.2. it is becoming more and more difficult for companies to compete. 3.
how often and in what quantities. motivations and preferences qualitative research can be conducted. avoid biased words and be as neutral as possible. related to product. the valid results in most cases depend on the moderator. As I mentioned above. who leads the group discussions. The most popular and the most appropriate technique of qualitative research in this case is focus groups. 3. He has to have a quick mind in order to catch good ideas and lead a discussion in a necessary way. with a quick mind. He has to be well-trained. 14 . create awareness and goodwill around the product. Pete Martin is developing a marketing strategy and focus groups can help him to develop it in the best way. The last type of focus group is what our company needs. Focus group discussions can help not only in product evaluation. feelings. how likely they will buy this product. I already mentioned the product. Experiencing – this allows us to evaluate customers during product use. Prepare a focus group discussion guide for the research. to quieten those who are talkative and encourage to talk those who are quiet. The moderator has to be well trained. so becoming successful and increasing profits. likes and dislikes concerning the product. and ‘eye-catching’. Clinical – used in order to reveal people’s inner attitudes and feelings. 2. Create a warm friendly atmosphere. what they dislike. and make people feel relaxed and safe. their emotions. Promotion – what kind of advertising can be attractive. as well as convenient. be able to identify if respondents have enough knowledge about the topic. so it is a position with high responsibility. a good memory on names. He doesn’t have to push on the people. and the person has to understand this. Answers on all these questions will help the company to match their potential customers’ needs ideally. Focus groups can discuss such aspects as preferable set of marketing mix – 4 Ps. people have to buy it and give their judgements. the results can help Pete Martin to develop an appropriate strategy and compete on the market successfully. During the discussion. Place – where it is better to sell the product in order to reach availability and convenience. the moderator can have an influence.In order to understand customers attitudes. socially acceptable and as neutral as possible in order to avoid negative influence and biased results. At the start of the discussion he has to ‘warm up’ the group. what they would like to change or add. There are 3 types of focus groups: 1. as product concept is already developed. Focus groups – this is when 7–12 people are led by a moderator discussing particular topics. Exploratory – helpful in generation of new ideas. What they like about the product. Once the data of research is collected and analysed. 2. the rest are: Price – at what price they are likely to buy the product. Additional decisions could be made about the packaging of the product – it should be attractive.
Case Question 2: Business Solutions Ltd.He has to identify the level of knowledge of respondents about the topic. Then thank them for participating and warmly finish the session. relatives. etc. The better the atmosphere in the group. Critically explain the threats to experimental validity. December 2010 Examiner's Solution Case 2 Answer 1. the moderator has to give a possibility to ask any last questions. the better results obtained. so following questions should be asked: o o o o o o o o Do they like the product? What they dislike about it? What they would like to change in it? At what price they would likely to buy the product? How often and in what quantities? Where it would be convenient to them to buy the product? What kind of advertising can attract them and encourage to buy the product? Will they advise the product to their friends.? After the needed information is obtained. it is a new product. Maybe some screening questions should be asked. It is necessary to summarise what was said in order to check if everything’s understood correctly. Then the discussion on the main topic is to follow. 15 . In our case.
As the experiment is being undertaken in the field. it offers more realistic conditions in which to evaluate the effect of the supporting telesales campaign. i. which influences the extent to which telesales activity and web sites visits occur together in a predictable way time order of occurrence of telesales activity and the effect on website visits absence of other causal factors. The independent variable. the field experiment (as used in the case situation) provides more external validity as it is undertaken in a real market situation.e. External validity refers to the extent to which experimental effects will generalise to the marketplace. For example. in relation to the impact of researchers. visits to the website. the fact that an SME is being interviewed may affect visits to Business Solutions Ltd website. to decide whether a telesales initiative will increase visits to the website. What type of experimental design do you suggest Business Solutions Ltd should use? Explain your reasoning. i.(15 marks) An experiment implies some sort of test to allow the effects of independent variables on a dependent variable to be discerned. three types of evidence are important: o o o concomitant variation. In examining whether there is a causal relationship between telesales activity and visits to the website. 2.e. Dependent variables are the outcomes of interest – in this case. the variable which the researcher has some control over is the telesales initiative. 16 . Threats to internal validity include: o o o o o o History and maturation Repeated testing Impact of the researchers Mortality of participants Selection errors Regression effects Each of these effects should be considered in the context of the case situation. The use of an experiment will help Business Solutions Ltd. Whereas a laboratory experiment is generally believed to be more internally valid. no other factor is affecting website visits Experimental validity has two components: o o Internal validity External validity Internal validity is the extent to which an experiment controls the effects of all nonmanipulated variables so that any difference in web site visits (the dependent variable) between groups can be regarded as valid effects of the different promotional programmes used (experimental factor).
the control group should be comparable in make-up to the group who will receive the treatment (tele-sales activity). By using the design ‘before–after with control’. Factorial designs: takes into consideration the fact that variables may interact with each other. ‘before–after with control’. if the following visits occurred: O1 = 45 visits O2 = 68 visits O3 = 34 visits O4 = 42 visits 17 . For this to be the case. The major assumptions in the design are that both groups are affected in a similar manner by extraneous factors. The statement of the design is: o o EG: O1 × O2 CG: O3 × O4 The effect of the treatment may be measured as: o (O2 – O1) – (O4 – O3 Therefore.(15 marks) The different types of experimental designs are: o o Basic (informal) designs: only measure the treatment impact. Latin square: measures treatment and two extra variables. The best approach for Business Solutions Ltd. Basic designs can be described as follows: o o o o o o o After only Before–after without control Before–after with control After–only with control Ex-post facto designs: groups chosen only after treatment has been applied Four group six-study design Time series design Regarding the statistical designs. Randomised block design: measures treatment plus one extra variable. may be the use of the basic design. the subjects must be selected at random and the treatment should be randomly assigned. Statistical (formal) designs: measure treatment impact and also other factors that may have been at work during the experiment. they are as follows: o o o o Completely randomised design: only takes account of one variable.
All experiments must have both external and internal validity. whilst an experiment conducted in the field lacks internal validity. this experiment would lack internal experimental validity as the results may have been caused by other extraneous factors. Internal validity refers to the extent to which the effect of the dependent (x) was caused by the independent (treatment y): this takes into account the confidence that the effect of x was not caused by other extraneous factors. 1. Some extraneous factors are: regression effects (the use of extreme values which skew the results). the resulting 19 website visits can be viewed as the direct impact of the treatment. What type of experimental design do you suggest Business Solutions Ltd should use? Explain your reasoning. There are two types of experimental design i. It may also be helpful to use a statistical design (randomised block design) to take account of other variables that may influence visits to the website apart from telesales activity. repeat testing and the mortality rate of respondents. selection errors. if the company Business Solutions Ltd were to conduct a field experiment. Hence in this case.e. If this impact is subtracted from the change in website visits in the companies contacted by the telesales team (23 website visits). the influence of the interviewer.e. refers to the extent the findings/results from the experiment can hold for other situations. Extraneous factors are factors that affect the dependent variable other than the independent i. 2.e. the dependent and in this case ‘interest in and visits to the website’. 18 .The assumption is that the increase in website visits in the control group (8 visits) was caused by extraneous factors. (i) basic design (informal) and (ii) statistical design (formal). the maturation and history. the treatment. External validity on the other hand. An experiment conducted in a laboratory lacks external validity. Critically explain the threats to experimental validity. December 2010 Selected Student Answer Case 2 Solution: Business Solutions Ltd. An experiment involves a test to determine the causal relationship between variables i. The independent. in this case ‘invest in telesales’ and the effect or results.
e. EG (experiment group) – O1 × O2. as well as one other statistical design. if this experiment is to hold on both internal and external validity. perhaps group design. time. Before–after with control. order of occurrence and absence of other factors. The completely randomised assumes ceteris paribus and applies the treatment to all the elements randomly and then analyses the results. However. hence it may be advisable to use triangulation i. Given the fact that the Business Solutions Ltd wishes to draw a simple random sample and divided into two groups. (20 marks) The relevant module is Module 16. Before–after without control O1 × O2 (O2 – O1). bearing in mind the cost and time involved. The statistical/formal design examples include completely randomised design. 19 . and ex-factor post design which is a hybrid of after only design. CG (control group) – O3 × O4 (O2 – O1) – (O4 – O3). After only with control (EG × O1) (O1 – O2) (CG × O1). and design of. where both groups are exposed to direct mail brochure.The basic informal design looks primarily at the effect of the treatment and not extraneous factors. Examples of basic/informal experimental designs include: o o o o o o o After only (× O).e. concomitant effect. whilst the statistical/formal designs look at both the affect of the treatment in addition to extraneous factors. Advise The Ugandan Coffee Development Authority on the need for. randomised design and Latin square design just to name a few. which in this case is the telesales activity. a marketing information system to help realise their goals. but only one group is exposed to the telesales activity. Essay Question – The Uganda Coffee Development Authority December 2010 Examiner's Solution Essay Solution – Answer Base 1. I would suggest Business Solutions Ltd use a before-after with control group to determine the effects of the treatment. it should be born in mind the caused components i. more than one experimental design.
analysing past data) and time dependent approaches (classical time-series. and design of. December 2010 Selected Student Answer Essay Solution 1. moving average. transportation costs. 2. In choosing which to use the following considerations should be taken into account: o o o o Time horizon Technical sophistication Cost Quality of data that can be used The basic approach is to make an environmental forecast before making a forecast of sales and profits. socio-cultural environment and impact on coffee consumption. expert opinion. physical environment. competitor activity. Advise The Ugandan Coffee Development Authority on the need for. market prices.). etc. a marketing information system to help realise their goals. farmers. etc. composite of sales force opinion. roasters. exponential smoothing. members’ sales reports. processors. and statistical demand analysis). A well designed information system enables the efficient handling. political trends. export data. economic trends.A marketing information system is vital to help The Ugandan Coffee Development Authority to make good decisions and provide sound research and information to their various stakeholders (exporters. Useful sources of data will include both internal and external sources: for example. organisation and storage of data and may comprise the following sub-systems: o o o o o an internal reporting system a marketing intelligence system a market-research system an analytical marketing system. government sources. What tools do you suggest the Authority use to help forecast market demand for Ugandan coffee? (20 marks) Various forecasting tools may be used to help forecast market demand. 20 . Methods to be considered include: asking people questions (surveys of buyer intentions.
Information from all these internal sources can be used to help the Ugandan Coffee Development Authority achieve their objectives. They can assess what is attributing to success in these segments and try to transfer the source of success to other segments. In terms of internal data this includes things such as information on inbound logistics. marketing intelligence. consumer behaviour. How people respond to different marketing strategies can be assessed and if ineffective it can be tweaked. customer enquiries and customer feedback can all be used to develop the product and even give the Ugandan Coffee Development Authority ideas on how to promote coffee as a value added product. Having a proper understanding of such information can help the Ugandan Coffee Development Authority understand the environment and industry and thus set the necessary objectives to maintain competitiveness. Marketing intelligence is the knowledge gained by a firm from everyday interaction with the environment. Information can also be gained externally. 21 . in an effort to promote. and so on. special attention can be paid to sales and marketing information on how sales are doing and the strategies being used by marketing can be assessed. and to provide the best possible information in an effort to stay abreast in one’s industry. analysing and interpreting data from the environment in an effort to solve problems. Customer complaints. They are striving to excel in their coffee industry and at the same time keep abreast of the dynamics within the environment. It can also give them information on how the domestic market feel about coffee and what can be done to promote their consumption. They can also look at production and operations information and determine the best. customer information and complaints and sales and marketing. A Marketing Information System will assist the Ugandan Coffee Development Authority greatly in achieving their initiatives. Market research involves collecting. It can also assist in gaining a competitive advantage over others. sales force attitudes and behaviour. These four aspects produce a sufficient flow of data to decision makers so that they can make the most suitable and efficient decisions. market research systems and analytical systems. The Ugandan Coffee Development Authority can use each aspect of the Marketing Information System to help them achieve these goals. A very important source of internal information is from customers.The Ugandan Coffee Development Authority has many goals and objectives that they are seeking to achieve. outbound logistics. For instance. most efficient ways to produce and to provide the best coffee. Such information is especially important since the dynamics of the environment are constantly changing. production and operations. about consumers (both users of coffee and non-users). improve and monitor marketing of coffee to optimise foreign exchange. A Marketing Information System is made up of four aspects: internal data. Market research systems are another integral part of the Marketing Information System that can greatly assist decision makers in solving problems and setting and achieving objectives. It can entail information on competitive behaviour. It can therefore be seen that an abundance of information can be attained internally to help the Ugandan Coffee Development Authority make decisions. Marketing intelligence and market research systems aid in accumulating helpful information about the industry. A Marking Information System deals with a constant flow of information and coordination of this information to assist decision makers. about competitors. meet objectives and understand consumers. Information on sales for example can lead the Ugandan Coffee Development Authority to recognise their most profitable segments in their domestic market.
long term. There are many different methods to use when forecasting. which can help the Ugandan Coffee Development Authority in setting distribution and marketing objectives. locally. Forecasting tools for example help forecast demand. telephone interviews and so on. All information gained from the different components of the system can be used to help realise goals. It allows a firm to recognise the potential of their market and how they can make the necessary arrangements to meet this forecast or even improve this forecast. 2. A final aspect of the Marketing Information System is the analytical systems. This would inevitably improve the coffee industry. or regionally. and so on. how can their coffee be marketed better. The Ugandan Coffee Development can determine if they are meeting international standards. asking sales forces valid questions. mathematical tools and expert systems. The analytical system of a Marketing Information System deals with the different methods that can be used to forecast sales.g. moving average. they can embark on asking customers about the coffee. asking experts valid questions and gaining information by looking at past data.g. Channel distribution information from the sales force can also be attained to help the decision makers in choosing the most suitable channels and selling methods. Sales can be forecasted by a time period e. short term. The Ugandan Coffee Development Authority can use any one of these methods in assisting them to forecast market demand for their coffee. Finding such information is valid since it allows the Ugandan Coffee Development Authority to 22 . Forecasting tools in this system can either be basic or statistical. This can be done via questionnaires. Information from market research can help them segment the market and thus have a more focused approach to satisfying needs. medium term or by location e. This can greatly benefit the Ugandan Coffee Development Authority since they can use these forecasts to set appropriate objectives and develop certain aspects of their strategy to meet future demand. It entails forecasting tools. focus groups. if the quality is good. The Ugandan Coffee Development Authority can therefore benefit immensely from designing an appropriate Marketing Information System. What tools do you suggest the Authority use to help forecast market demand for Ugandan coffee? Forecasting demand is an essential aspect of a firm. internationally. forecasting can be done by using time series analysis. These are basically decision support mechanisms that help decision makers in making valuable decisions from the information that they have received throughout the Marketing Information System. extrapolation and statistical demand analysis. Other external sources of information may include commercial information such as scanners in stores. Market research information can also be used in gaining information in international foreign markets. Statistically. In terms of basic tools this deals with asking people questions. Special emphasis must be placed on the aspects of the system that give relevant feedback on customers and the coffee industry. For instance. This can give information of where sales are concentrated.Information on answers received from marketing research therefore can help the Ugandan Coffee Development Authority promote domestic coffee consumption.
erratic. A good approach to use statistically is the statistical demand analysis which deals with looking at all the external influences that may affect demand. The Ugandan Coffee Development Authority can also seek help and forecast using estimates from experts. Sales force can give information on how and where demand would most probably come from. Such experts may be ones from similar industries who may be familiar with coffee drinkers and their habits. Time series analysis for instance is based on the assumption that sales change due to different influences over time. with 70% of customers in support of the idea. How confident should Steven be in the results of his own market research? (8 marks) Steven has undertaken market research already. moving average.recognise how probable an increase in demand is. The Ugandan Coffee Development Authority can also take a statistical approach and use methods such as time series analysis. Ugandan Coffee Development Authority can use this since they can ascertain how these influences affect demand and use it to project future demand. advertising and so on to determine future demand. follow a trend or rise and fall at different times. 23 . It looks at things such as personal income. They may also manipulate these influences to further increase demand. Asking sales people questions is also very relevant since they are the ones who are in direct contact with the market whose sales you are trying to forecast. The statistical demand analysis balances the equation where S = a0 + b1P + b2A… In conclusion Ugandan Coffee Development Authority can collaborate both statistical ways and non-statistical methods of forecasting demand. extrapolation and statistical demand. In time series analysis sales can either be seasonal. Using this method may not be very appropriate for the Ugandan Coffee Development Authority since they are more concerned about forecasting demand of a potential market rather than really focusing on the demand of the current market. based on a sample of 80 customers. and the results appear to be favourable to the introduction of interactive voice response technology. information on past demand can also be used to forecast what kind of demand is to come. Day 4: Case Question 1: Software House (Module 4 – June 2008) June 2008 Examiner's Solution Case 1 – Answer Base 1.
4.6.3 and 4.1. What other methods might Steven use to determine sample size? (6 marks) Other methods of deciding on sample size include: o o o intuition cost limitation industry standards Each of these should be discussed with reference to section 4. The key issue he has to consider is the extent to 24 . we can be 95% certain that the true population proportion of those in favour of the introduction of telephone based voice response is between 60% and 80%. 4. Do you think Steven should press on with the installation of the voice response service or should he conduct more market research? Explain your reasoning. Steven should consider the confidence level attached to his existing market research findings.1.1. Therefore.1. If Steven were to undertake additional research and wished the percentage in favour to be accurate to within ±5%. 4. 2.6. increasing the sample size. To be within ±5% of 70% Steven would require a sample size as follows: 3.6. what size of sample do you recommend? (8 marks) One option available to Steven is to conduct further research.The question is how confident can Steven be in these results. The Confidence Interval Approach to sample size can assist the evaluation of whether these results are satisfactory as a basis for such investment decisions. (8 marks) In deciding whether to press on with the installation of interactive voice response services or conduct more market research.
A good student answer will note that Steven should keep in mind that the survey referred to in the article is a year old and that. It is worth mentioning that the total survey error comprises sampling and non-sampling error. The first consideration in evaluating his research methods is sampling. Steven should take into account the cost of research and the value of the investment decision being undertaken. To overcome this flaw. Relating to the case study. Increasing the sample size to 323 would produce a ±5% confidence interval which Steven may feel is enough for him to feel confident in making the investment. This in itself may explain the differences between the findings of the two surveys.e. Steven is trying to assess if he should go ahead and purchase a new interactive voice response service (bearing in mind the benefits that his may bring to his company) or decide against purchasing due to articles that mention the frustration of consumers with automated telephone systems.which his comfort zone would be enhanced if the confidence interval were narrowed by conducting further market research amongst his customers. conducting telephone interviews. We should also take into consideration that telephone interviews may cause annoyance to the consumer if not properly conducted and if that is 25 . Sampling error refers to the sample not being a perfect representation of the target population and non sampling error can be either non response error (not all in the sample do in fact respond) and response error (respondents giving inaccurate answers). in the past year alone. In the case. Steven should increase his sampling size because larger samples imply smaller sampling error. How confident should Steven be in the results of his own market research? Market research helps the supplier to allay uncertainty inherent in all marketing decisions. The cost of undertaking additional market research. is not likely to be prohibitive. June 2008 Selected Student Answer Case 1 Solution: Software House 1. the small sample size may have affected the quality of the research and hence misled the results. many changes are likely to have taken place in consumer reaction to modern technology. or those who feel comfortable with the technology (interactive voice response service) proposed. Therefore. i. although Steven has used a probability sampling and error can be estimated. It may well be that the 70% represents the opinion of those who have strong feelings about the subject. a very small sample was used (only 80 customers out of his total customer base=2500) and this may influence the accuracy of results or quality of the data. The research used a probability sampling (where elements in the sample have a known chance of being selected) and therefore it is possible to estimate sampling error.
It is as follows: L = Z · Sp Notes: L = level of Sp = standard deviation Z = value given for a determined level of confidence precision for proportion Therefore the sample size at 5% level of confidence should be n = 324.the case maybe all those 70% in favour of the new system just replied positively because they wanted to finish the interview as soon as possible. what size of sample do you recommend? To calculate the size sample we can use the level of accuracy formula. Let’s calculate the Steven’s study accuracy: If Steven would be satisfied with ±10% accuracy which translates to the lowest 60% and highest 80% of satisfaction then he could go ahead. If Steven were to undertake additional research and wished the percentage in favour to be accurate to within ±5%. 2. In short. What other methods might Steven use to determine sample size? The methods used to calculate sample size are: o o o o o Intuition Statistical precision Cost limitations Industry standards Other factors 26 . 3. to produce more accurate results Steven should increase the sample size.
Other factors concern any other variable that may affect/influence how to calculate the sample size. Steven should undertake more research before going ahead with the installation of the new system. Its used in industrial marketing research more often. Considering the benefits that the new system may bring. Do you think Steven should press on with the installation of the voice response service or should he conduct more market research? Explain your reasoning. If after undertaking research using the same method – telephone survey – with a larger sample of respondents he still was not convinced about which decision to make. he may consider the use of qualitative research to complement his quantitative research. Therefore. Cost limitations only consider the available budget despite all the other factors (e. It also takes account of the level of precision required ( L = Z · S x or L = Z · S p) and the confidence interval (the interval within which a population means or proportion have a stated probability of lying). Industry standards refers to the ‘rules of thumb’ developed by ‘experts’ in the industry. this method ticks all the boxes and provides a more accurate result. Through focus groups they may assess attitudes and opinions on the subject (automated telephone systems) and what underlies these feelings.Intuition is based on informed intuition but its not the most satisfactorily method. This more detailed research could provide valuable insights on how the firm may contribute (for those responsible for the development and design of those systems) to a positive customer experience. level of precision). His first interview used a sample too small and therefore its results may be misleading.g. Steven should undertake more research but this time increasing the sample size to decrease sampling error and provide more accurate results. Therefore. thus changing the perceptions of those who feel frustrated and disappointed when dealing with this system (maybe the ‘hatred’ comes from a lack of understanding or ability to use the system and may be easily resolved). it should only be used when there is no other possibility. but also the costs that the firm will incur (and bearing in mind all the articles that show a negative feeling from customers towards automated telephone systems). Statistical precision take into consideration that larger samples are more accurate and that data that flows from it have more quality. 27 . 4.
Case Question 2: Blood Test Equipment (Module 4 and 8 .June 2006) June 2006 Examiner's Solution Case 2 – Answer Base Advise the manufacturer of the new home kit on what kind of marketing research they should undertake to develop an understanding of the views and opinions of young people towards heart disease and the use of home testing kits to assess personal risk of contracting the disease. Clearly. background to the research it is likely that in-depth personal interviewing would be the most appropriate qualitative research technique (other suitable alternative methods may also be discussed). Because of the emotional. death rates/disease rates amongst family and friends.g. 28 . the issues are of a sensitive nature and attitudes may be influenced by personal circumstances. and potentially distressing. e. (Total 30 marks) The terms of reference of the marketing research would seem to indicate a need for data of a qualitative nature in relation to the attitudes of young people towards heart disease and use of home test kits to assess personal risk.
including the fact that they are expensive and time consuming and will require considerable preparatory work in terms of sample recruitment and selection. The qualitative market research I would recommend to be undertaken is personal interviews and telephone interviews.The full range of advantages of in-depth interviewing should be discussed together with their drawbacks. Once an understanding of attitudes and opinions has been achieved. The merits of different survey methods should be assessed in the context of the case and some attempt should be made to explain desirable sampling techniques and the range of issues which would lend themselves to quantitative examination. une 2006 Selected Student Answer Case 2 Solution: Blood Test Equipment Advise the manufacturer of the new home kit on what kind of marketing research they should undertake to develop an understanding of the views and opinions of young people towards heart disease and the use of home testing kits to assess personal risk of contracting the disease. This data will be obtained by the use of secondary data. Interviewer can steer off sensitive questions depending on reaction of interviewee. Quantitative research is research that is based on numerical or statistical figures. what treatments actually exist and what specialists exist to deal with this situation. This will also assist us to define the population – the group that fall into our research study for our following qualitative research. This is quite a sensitive and serious issue that involves young people. This can be undertaken at the initial phase of the research to ascertain the statistics of how many young people actually have attacks. To be able to get the best out of research. I would recommend the use of both Quantitative and Qualitative research methods. Personal Interviews Advantages o o o Allow interviewer to observe reaction to questions. Enables interviewer to ask questions in a systematic order. 29 . the qualitative research may be followed up by a quantitative study to assess the extent to which various views and opinions are held amongst the wider population. This can be gathered from health institutions and government bodies such as the Ministry of Health. The need to involve medical practitioners should be considered. 1.
o o Selecting the Sample The success of the research mostly depends on how large the sample size is. Quota sampling. 2. In the case of the blood test equipment. This is seen as most appropriate since it avoids bias in the selection process and hence is most representative. Samples may be non-probability or probability. Random sampling. 3. This will give perspective from different sections of social class. Personality of interviewer can influence answers. Interviewee can express self freely with the knowledge that interviewer does not know them personally. Depth interviews such as focus groups can be used as well to identify feelings and attitudes to heart disease and the home testing kit. Judgement sampling. For example. the names of all the students in a university are written on various sheets of paper and put together in a basket or container. Cluster sampling. Non-probability Sampling Here the sample is not random. and how representative of the population. o High response rate since most people have impulse to pick up the phone when it rings and especially so when it is to deal with young people. 3.Disadvantages Interviewer can be biased. Examples of nonprobability sampling are: 1. 2. The first 40 names that are picked are used as the sample. distribution methods and where to actually sell the product. 3. every 80th number from a telephone book is selected as part of the sample. This will affect pricing. but rather managed for practical reasons. For example. the cluster is more demographic. 30 . 4. The sample is stratified into e.g. 2. Stratified sampling. Some examples of probability sampling are: 1. The specific method I would recommend is the stratified sampling technique. Probability Sampling Here there is a known chance of selection. Telephone Interviews o o Advantages Eliminates interviewer influence. Systematic sampling. social classes and a number randomly selected. I would recommend that the probability sampling technique be used for the reasons stated above. promotions message and means. This is as stratified sampling except that in this case. Convenience sampling.
Potential problems with the sampling frame lie in any deviation which may exist from one to one correspondence between the customer list used and the population of credit card customers. regarding income status) and not omit any members of the population. How might Inter-European deal with each of these potential problems? (20 marks) The relevant module is Module 4. Describe the potential problems which Inter-European might face in drawing up a sampling frame for the research study. For example. Ineligibility (i. the list used must be up-to-date (for example.Essay Question: Inter-European (Module 4 – Dec 2008) December 2008 Examiner's Solution Essay Solution – Answer Base 1. listing individuals who are 31 .e.
the population is separated into sub-groups called strata. Despite having higher sampling errors than simple random sampling of equal size. the population is separated into sub-groups called ‘clusters’ and a sample of clusters is drawn.g. Cluster sampling can also be cost-effective. In cluster sampling. between socio-economic characteristics and credit card usage amongst their credit card customers (20 marks) Stratified and cluster sampling are both probability sampling methods so sampling error may be stated in mathematical terms.not/no longer members of the population – lapsed customers) is a further potential problem. Separate simple random samples are drawn from each sub-group. The element which distinguishes the procedures is that with stratified sampling a sample of elements is selected from each sub-group. if any. Using cluster sampling. a sample of countries will be chosen as the focus of the research study. In the case of Inter-European. etc. whereas in cluster sampling a sample of sub-groups is chosen. This will allow comparisons to be made between countries. A consequential reduction in the total cost of the research can result under certain conditions. A good student answer will consider possible methods of dealing with each of these problems. Using stratified sampling. The division is mutually exclusive and exhaustive which means that every population element is assigned to one stratum only and no population elements are omitted in the assignment procedure. Germany. France. 2. it may make sense to separate the population of credit card customers by country. cluster samples allow a large enough increase in sample size to more than offset their inefficiency so that overall sampling error is reduced for any given budget. A good student answer will note that stratified sampling can improve the costeffectiveness of a research project as this technique allows sampling error goals to be achieved with smaller sample sizes than are required in simple random sampling. In stratified sampling. Discuss the benefits and drawbacks of Inter-European using stratified and cluster sampling methods to determine the relationship. samples of credit card customers will be drawn from each country. 32 . e. credit card customers in UK. Other problems may include duplication (holding more than one credit card) and clustering (joint account holders).
in lists. Non-response error occurs when people do not reply. and this may occur quite frequently. and there will always be an element of error. This will evidently occur due to the less than perfect lists and sampling frames used. This sampling frame is basically a list of the population. Such individuals are also generally different in some way from those who reply. How might Inter-European deal with each of these potential problems? The banking network of the Inter-European Bank is extremely large and widely dispersed. no matter how cautious one is.In the case of Inter-European. Reasons for this are due to the information used. unfortunately. However. 33 . This all impacts on their credit card usage. So maybe. their customer base. Also. Two elements that will also contribute to increasing error are random sampling error and non-sampling error. People may be very difficult to get a hold of or else will refuse to participate in their research study. It is important that measures are taken so that such a gap is reduced. and the one that is used (the working population/operational) will always be different. The Inter-European Bank wants to draw up a sampling frame for their research study. Those who do reply may induce error by providing them with socially acceptable and pleasing answers. Therefore. Lists of a population are essentially outof-date on their publication day as changes are constantly happening. using two lists instead of one for the sampling frame will assist Inter-European in narrowing this gap. educational and income will change too. otherwise their research can bring about misleading results. December 2008 Selected Student Answer Essay Solution: Inter-European 1. Describe the potential problems which Inter-European might face in drawing up a sampling frame for the research study. conducting such a research study will not be an easy task and certain constraints need to be overcome. Telephone numbers and addresses will change with move-outs and move-ins and peoples marital. or else may forget and provide the wrong information. The difference between the actual population. no sampling frame will ever be perfect. cluster sampling may be the logical approach if analysis of credit card spending patterns by country is not part of the survey objectives. that is. as their lifestyles change to new circumstances. Random sampling error occurs when the chosen sample is not a perfect representation of the required population. Cluster sampling will deliver cost savings in terms of interviewers required by country and questionnaire translation expenses. Non-sampling error is made up of response error and non-response error. it is quite common to find duplications and omissions of data.
little is known about the usage patterns. Discuss the benefits and drawbacks of Inter-European using stratified and cluster sampling methods to determine the relationship. meaning that each and every element of a population has a known non-zero chance of being selected to participate in a sample. but usage patterns. still. Here. 34 . between socio-economic characteristics and credit card usage amongst their credit card customers A stratified sample is a form of random sample. to inform them that their participation is to be required in a research study. The members of the population (its customer base) are divided into mutually exclusive groups to reflect specific social and economic backgrounds. This is beneficial as they know where to locate them and target them in future. or a telephone call beforehand. extensive and detailed coverage of their whole customer base. or high powered lawyers or executives? And what are the individual’s attitudes and perceptions towards the usage of their credit card? Is it used for ‘special occasions – large purchases’ or for frequent every day use? Stratified and cluster sampling methods do provide the opportunity to have their customer base neatly categorized and classified by specific characteristics. Other research must complement such a study in order to get more variable and insightful information. if any. specific areas that are known to include a lot of their members are assessed. Random samples are then taken from each of these groups. This can substantially aid participation. but the amounts (deposited and withdrawn) may be very small and not compare to those are categorised as less frequent users. The customer base will effectively be divided into its specific socio-economic characteristics and credit card usage patterns. but involving larger amounts. The drawback is that they may not be able to assess the likely importance and impact of such a group. so their behaviours will be easy to analyse and this will make it easier for them to target. 2. It could also be that particular members may be categorized according to their extensive and repeated card usage.Inter-European could inform their customers either by a personalised letter. as we have seen. Are many of their card holders in that area students. However. People in the particular area are targeted as many of their customers live there. A cluster sample is also a random sampling method. The benefits for Inter-European with this method are that they will have an equal. which is precisely the case with Inter-European. A stratified sample is most appropriate when used with large consumer populations. Such results can then be projected to the entire population. and sampling error can also be estimated. can be quite tricky to determine.
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